Notes for using the corresponding data files

Tony Wimmers, CIMSS, ajwimmers@wisc.edu
November 2022


1. Introduction

The files shared in this directory make up the most recent output of the CruiseNet product, or the CIMSS turbulence product. THIS PRODUCT IS PROVISIONAL ONLY, AND ALTHOUGH WE STRIVE TO PROVIDE A TIMELY AND CONTINUOUS DATA STREAM, IT IS NOT SUPPORTED FOR OPERATIONAL DEPLOYMENT. That said, we hope this can be used as widely as possible so that CIMSS and NOAA/NESDIS can learn about its potential worth for future operational deployment. In short, we hope that all interested users can draw value from this product but for now it would be best not to depend on it for critical operations.

2. About the product

This product depicts the probability of moderate-or-greater (MOG) turbulence integrated over a ten minute flight segment. MOG is defined here as an Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) of 0.22 or greater, so therefore one may need to recalibrate this estimate for aircraft type. The higher the probability of MOG, the higher the likelihood of severe turbulence as well.

The algorithm behind this product is a deep learning neural network using inputs from geostationary satellite imagery and the GFS global model. It is trained on an archive of EDR observations from commercial aircraft.

A full presentation of independently-tested accuracy statistics will be published in the future. For now we can share that the product validates with a Brier Skill Score of 0.203, and the ROC curve (POD vs. FAR) has an area under the curve of 0.89. At this level of performance, the "10%" probability contour on the grids has a 70% probability of detection and a 10% false alarm rate for MOG observations integrated over ten minute segments.

3. Interaction

Please contact us at the email above with questions or feedback. We don't receive nearly enough feedback  to keep an updated account of how our work is being used, how often it is used, and what are the most important positive and negative features. Is something in the product constantly letting you down? Is something becoming too important to allow another data outage? Let us know.