FXUS63 KMKX 260909

AFDMKX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

309 AM CST MON NOV 26 2012



.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH



WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CAUSE AREAS OF LOWER 

CLOUDS OVER SRN WI FOR A TIME THIS MRNG. TIMELY VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND 

IMAGE FROM 0721Z SHOWED THICKER CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST CWA EXTENDING 

ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN WI. A FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN FROM THESE 

CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH IN VICINITY OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS 

UPPER JET FINALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE 

FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MRNG ACROSS SRN WI. HOWEVER INCREASING 

SUBSIDENCE FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION AND DRYING SHOULD RESULT IN 

CLOUDS DECREASING LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DAYTIME TEMPS NOT EXPCD 

TO RISE MUCH DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS CARRYING EVEN COLDER AIR OVER 

THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE ALSO 

PROTECTING SRN WI FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIGHT PRECIP EVENT GOING ON TO 

THE SOUTHWEST OF WI.  



DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF TNGT WL 

ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 RANGE MOST AREAS.  FEW 

LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST.



.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH



HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN WILL KEEP DRY 

WEATHER GOING ON TUESDAY. WILL START OUT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF 

SUNSHINE...BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH 

THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. WILL 

SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EVENING...CLEARING BY MORNING AS HIGH 

PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TOOK OUT MENTION OF FLURRIES 

IN THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING...AS MODELS NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH 

BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING. 



HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 

INCREASING CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE. 



TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE 

WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A COLD PUNCH WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT 

SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT RECOVERING QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. 

SHOULD ACTUALLY END UP MILDER WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS 

APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES. SHOULD BE EVEN MILDER THURSDAY...WITH 

HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.



.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM



LESS CONFIDENCE TONIGHT FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE 

LAST COUPLE NIGHTS. WARM FRONT WILL SETUP IN THE VICINITY OF THE 

FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO EXACT 

PLACEMENT AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS 

MAINTAINS A SHORTWAVE BRINGING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 

FRIDAY...WHILE THE CANADIAN REMAINS DRY AND THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF 

PRECIP CHANCES. DID KEEP SOME LOW POPS PER THE CONSISTENT GFS 

SOLUTION. TEMPS ALOFT FRIDAY WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT NOT 

EXPECTING A LOT OF MIXING WITH THE WARM FRONT NEARBY AND PROBABLY A 

DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. KEPT HIGHS NEAR MODEL 2M VALUES...MAINLY 

LOW 40S.



THE ECMWF IS STILL BRINGING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TO 

THE AREA ON SATURDAY THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE 

TO WORK WITH AMONG ALL MODELS...WITH 2M DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 

40S...SOME EVEN INTO THE LOW 50S. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE NOT 

SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...BUT DID INTRODUCE POPS SATURDAY 

PER THE ECMWF SHOWING THIS STRONGER WAVE FOR A COUPLE RUNS NOW. 

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EVEN WITH THE CANADIAN AND 

GFS...SO STUCK CLOSER TO 2M TEMPS AGAIN...THOUGH STILL RESULTED IN 

MILD HIGH TEMPS AROUND 50.



WITH NOT MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SATURDAY...THE GFS KEEPS THE 

MILD TEMPS GOING INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A BRIEF COOL 

DOWN. OBVIOUSLY QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...SO 

GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPS FOR NOW...KEEPING ABOVE 

NORMAL TEMPS GOING. 



LOOKS LIKE MILDER AIR COULD LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE 

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS.



&&



.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FEW CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR THIS MRNG BUT 

MOSTLY VFR EXPCD.  CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER THIS MRNG 

AS UPPER JET SHIFTS EWD ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE OVER SRN WI 

ALONG WITH INFLUX OF LOW TO MID LEVEL DRIER AIR.  



&&



.MARINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG EARLY 

THIS MRNG...HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVY HAS ALREADY BEEN CANCELLED.  

NORTHWEST WINDS STILL EXPCD TO REACH 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY AS HIGH 

PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES AND COLD AIR OVER WARMER 

LAKE SURFACE CREATING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PASSING WEAK 

SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN VEERING SFC WINDS APPROACHING SMALL 

CRAFT LEVELS TUE NGT. 



&&



.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.

LM...NONE.

&&



$$



TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV