FXUS63 KOAX 162123 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 323 PM CST MON DEC 16 2013 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING MODIS IMAGERY WAS STILL SHOWING AREA OF SNOW COVER OVER THE NRN FRINGE OF THE CWA WELL AS EXTREME SW IA AND EXTREME E-CNTRL NEB. MODERATING TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THOUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT MELTING BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES...WHICH IS THE MAIN ISSUE WITHIN THE NEAR TERM PDS. PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE CONUS THRU MIDWEEK AS AMPLIFIES RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE AND IS REPLACED WITH POS TILT LONGWAVE TROF ENVELOPING THE WRN CONUS. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SRN PORTION WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA BY THURSDAY WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY RACES ACROSS CANADA/NRN TIER STATES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN ITS PLUNGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WED NIGHT THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY. TIME- SERIES/METEOGRAM SFC TEMP/WIND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY SHOULD BE PUSHING THRU THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME AROUND NOON WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA SHORTLY AFTER. AS A MATTER OF FACT...NON-DIURNAL SITUATION A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH FALLING TEMPS ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL MIX OF FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN. FORTUNATELY ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...THUS NO REAL THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WHERE SN ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. DEE .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...A COUPLE OF SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A 1029MB HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN. HAVE SOME FREEZING PRECIP/SLEET/SNOW. AGAIN...ANY AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT. COLD HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...BUT LOOK TO BE BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES FARTHER NORTH. ANOTHER 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY...RETREATING TO THE EAST MONDAY. ZAPOTOCNY && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. DEWALD && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ 99/99  FXUS63 KOAX 090904 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 304 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 .SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a well amplified upstream ridge situated over the western CONUS with hefty moisture spilling over the top through the Pacific northwest. At the surface...strong high pressure was in control across the central Plains. Initial concern is temperatures followed by possible precipitation this weekend. A quick glance at LSRs along with yesterday afternoon MODIS false color imagery indicated that the vast majority of the CWA north of the I-80 corridor had snow cover with amounts generally from 2-5" inches reported. For today...aforementioned Pacific moisture riding down the front end the ridge will likely keep skies mostly cloudy. MET/MAV are pretty similar giving highs around 30 within areas of snow cover...with mid 30s to the south which seems reasonable for now. On Friday...max temps are a bit more problematic. Increasing thkns build in from the west with +15C 850mb temps/warm air advection invading the central Plains. The bottom line is there will likely be a large spread across the CWA with low 50s northeast and mid 60s southwest. On Saturday....a weak cold front will bring highs down a bit with mid 40s north and low 50s south. Precipitation chances return Saturday night with the approach of a stout Pacific northwest vort max. It appears that ample forcing via 700-500mb QG frontogenesis will be on hand...but soundings suggest moisture availability to be somewhat in question. Latest NAM12/GFS20/SREF all suggest changes are slim at best. Meanwhile both the CMC/ECM lay solid swath of QPF over the CWA. At any rate...appears likely that the main precipitation type will be liquid with a small mix of rain/snow here and there. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 As for the extended periods...another anomalous upper ridge building in will lead to dry conditions next week with above normal highs generally in the mid 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 VFR conditions through the TAF period with variable amounts of higher clouds FL100-150. Light northwest winds 10kts or less will become variable Thursday morning, however are forecast to increase from the southeast 10 to 20kts Thursday afternoon. LLWS increases at all three sites after 00Z Thursday night. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Zapotocny