FXUS64 KHGX 220306 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 906 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011 .UPDATE... EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... MODIS SST COMPOSITE SHOWS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS IN THE GULF JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THESE COOLER WATERS WITH A MOIST/WARM AIRMASS RIDING OVER IT. SEA FOG SEEMS TO BE IMPACTING AREAS FROM GAL IS...GAL BAY AND AREAS EASTWARD ALONG THE TX/LA GULF COAST. KGLS AND KLBX CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWER VSBY AND LOW CLOUD DECKS BUT NO DENSE FOG. WILL STILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG INLAND. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SE TX. AT 03Z...FRONT WAS BASICALLY LOCATED FROM KCLL TO KOCH. FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN IN SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THE 12Z WRF AND THE 00Z/22 NAM RUN SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL PUSH. BOTH SHOW THE FRONT GETTING TO KIAH BY 11-12Z AND IT BARELY REACHING KHOU/KSGR BY 15Z. FRONT LOOS TO STALL FROM A LIBERTY TO HOUSTON TO VICTORIA LINE TUE MORNING. MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS INCREASE MIN TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. EVEN THEN... MIN TEMPS MAY STILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAT WHAT COULD OCCUR. FRONT PUSHES NORTH TOMORROW WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/ UPDATE... UPDATED MARINE HAZARD GRIDS. DISCUSSION... SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT JAMAICA BEACH...SCHOLES FIELD IS AT 3 MILES AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES. FEEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SO WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVIOSRY FOR GALVESTON BAY AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. NEW MARINE ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/ DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PSX AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION BENEATH A STRONG CAP...BUT FEEL WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN COULD GET SQUEEZED OUT OVERNIGHT. SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL WORK INLAND AND EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE IMPACTED AT GLS/LBX AND MAYBE AS FAR INLAND AS HOU. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/ DISCUSSION... THE LATEST COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD SE TX THIS AFTN WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO OUR NRN BORDERS LATER TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS LOCATION BEFORE IT MOVES BACK NORTH LATE TUES. HOWEVER WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE RETURN/DEV- ELOPMENT OF FOG/SEA FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT... THEN LASTING INTO EARLY TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH THURS. AT THAT TIME...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH CAP STRENGTH... MODELS DO LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE S/WV AS WELL AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS. AT ANY RATE... THE CHC POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. 41 MARINE... WINDS AT THE BUOYS ARE STEADILY DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. WILL KEEP SCEC GOING UNTIL 00Z FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS WITH SEAS STILL 6 FT AT BUOY 020. COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TX WILL REACH THE UPPER TX COAST AND STALL LATER TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH DENSE FOG LIKELY. THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH SEA FOG LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. INCREASING WINDS COULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS THU/THU NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 68 58 73 61 / 10 20 20 20 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 60 71 58 74 61 / 20 20 20 20 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 60 67 59 67 60 / 20 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...39  FXUS64 KHGX 201252 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 752 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013 .DISCUSSION... MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING LIFTING/MIXING QUICKLY. EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SSE-SE. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG WAS REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH THE WIND AND LOOKING AT MODIS FROM YESTERDAY AND VIS THIS MORNING THINK THAT SMOKE FROM YUCATAN FIRES MAY HAMPER VISIBILITIES TODAY AND TOMORROW. WON'T ADD ANY AS TEMPO CONDITIONS YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/ DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS- OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF BRISK WINDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS A STOUT CAP WILL BE PRESENT AROUND 850MB. AMDAR SOUNDING FOR KHOU REVEALED 800MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM NEW MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL PROBABLY WIN OUT SOUTH OF IH-10. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVES OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE NORTH OF IH-10 WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BREAK THE CAP AT KCLL WHILE HOLDING ON TO IT AT KIAH AND OTHER SOUTHWARD SITES. AT KCLL CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH LI'S OF -8. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HOLDS ONTO THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA. HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS EVENT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE HOT AND HUMID. 23 MARINE... SOUTHEAST WINDS A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 12-18 KNOTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSITS THE STATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES BEYOND WEDNESDAY THOUGH LIGHTER AND MAY EVEN BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT SATURDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 73 90 71 88 / 10 10 30 40 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 90 75 90 73 88 / 10 10 20 30 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 73 80 74 81 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...23