FXUS63 KAPX 140659 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 259 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...BRINGING IN A SURGE OF WARMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR JUST A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRIER BUT QUITE COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE SOMETIME TOWARD MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 ...DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT GETTING COLD TONIGHT... IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. CONFIDENCE: PRETTY DECENT FOR BOTH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FOR MINIMAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT. CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION: A VERY WAVY...YET NOT TOO AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE WEST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN THE DAKOTAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH NICE SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS WORKING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY SHOVED EAST OF US...ALONG WITH A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER LOW CLOUD IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. THIS RESULTING FROM LAST VESTIGES OF SHALLOW OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS GETTING ERODED/SQUASHED FROM CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA IN FAIRLY BREEZY S/SW FLOW. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH MOISTURE. THE AIR MASS IS PRETTY DRY...AND THE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT ALLOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SUGGESTED DRIZZLE FROM SAID MODELS (WHICH WE WERE HIGHLY SKEPTICAL OF YESTERDAY). RATHER...JUST SOME SCATTERED-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD IS SEEN IN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OVER NRN MICHIGAN. THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT (AT LEAST THE INITIAL COLD FRONT) IS DRAPED ACROSS MN AND THE BORDER OF IA/SD..AND IS COMPLETELY MOISTURE-STARVED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING OVER IT. THE FORCING ARRIVES OVER NRN MICHIGAN TODAY ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...WITH WAA AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING TO USHER IN DRY CONTINENTAL AIR. DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE SEEMINGLY THE KEY FEATURES FOR WHETHER PRECIP CAN FALL...BUT CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT IS...SERIOUSLY DOUBTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP. A SECONDARY/STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER AND TONIGHT FOR NRN LOWER. CONVERGENCE WANES WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS SETTING UP AND DEEPENING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...BUT AGAIN...WITH MOSTLY ICE COVERED WATERS OUTSIDE OF SOME OPEN AREAS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON. WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ERODE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ABOVE THAT THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN...SCATTERED HIGHER LEVEL CU AND BKN MID CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (MAYBE A SKIFF OF SNOW AT THE ONSET?). TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S...WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF NE LOWER. S/SW WINDS A TOUCH BREEZY SHIFTING WEST. LOWER CLOUD ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER AND TONIGHT FOR NRN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING NOTICEABLY. MAYBE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY NW LOWER AND THE ROGERS CITY-ALPENA AREAS. LOWS BOTTOMING OUT FROM 10 TO 15F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER HALF OF THE 20S IN NRN LOWER. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 WELL...ENJOY TODAY'S EXPECTED WARMTH...BECAUSE UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE FREEZER DOOR IS ONCE AGAIN ABOUT TO OPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PARTS OF NEXT WEEK (THOUGH THIS FORECASTER PERSONALLY WISHES SOMEONE WOULD WELD THAT DOOR SHUT). PER MULTI-MODEL TRENDS OVER MANY DAYS NOW...THERE REALLY APPEARS TO BE NO DISCERNIBLE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN ON THE HORIZON AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF ALASKA HELPS MAINTAIN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...THUS SENDING HEIGHTS FALLING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AS THE SEEMING PERMANENT TROUGH FEATURE OF THE PAST 4 MONTHS HANGS TOUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IN THIS WHOLE SETUP IS THAT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL... SO THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD...AT LEAST THERE ARE SOME PROSPECTS FOR THAT EVER-HIGHER IN THE SKY MARCH SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE MURKY HEADING INTO MIDWEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY STORM SYSTEM. THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES AS WE PUSH INTO THE 3RD WEEK OF MARCH. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE STRIPS OUT THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FEATURE H8 TEMPS SOMEWHERE AROUND -18C...WHICH IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GET INTO LAKE CONCERNS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ICE COVER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS (THOUGH IT HAS MOVED AROUND THE PAST WEEK OR SO). BASED ON OUR LAST AVAILABLE CLEAR MODIS IMAGERY...IT WOULD APPEAR THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS ON NORTHERN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON TO PROVIDE AT THE VERY LEAST SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...THOUGH THE FETCH LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 20 MILES AT BEST...ALL WHILE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS JUST SOCKED IN WITH THICK ICE. GIVEN THE UNKNOWN ABOUT JUST WHERE ICE HAS MOVED AND/OR REDEVELOPED...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW REGARDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE THE LAKES WILL FIND A WAY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE SOMETHING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. AFTER ALL...JUST LOOK AT WEDNESDAY WHEN NORTHEAST FLOW OFF HURON WAS ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS WILL BE INTENTIONALLY KEPT LOW AND CLOUD COVER INCREASED...PARTICULARLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MOISTURE FURTHER THINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN WORKS THROUGH THE REGION (STOP ME IF YOU'VE HEARD THAT SETUP BEFORE). AIRMASS LOOKS RIDICULOUSLY DRY WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 0.04 INCHES/H8 DEW POINTS PUSHING -40C...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SETUPS THE PAST MONTH OR TWO AND EXPECTED SHIFTING OF WINDS TO THE NORTH...HAVE TO BELIEVE ANY RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL GET SHUT DOWN QUICKLY. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT BUT DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT WINDS MAY STAY COUPLED FOR AT LEAST A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. STILL...LOWS BELOW ZERO PROBABLY A GOOD BET FOR THOSE USUAL COLD SPOTS...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY STRUGGLING THROUGH THE TEENS...THOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. PROBABLY ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS LAYS OVERHEAD...BUT UPSTREAM WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL BE UNDERWAY INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS AN AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS WORKS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING INCITE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THIS PIECE OF ENERGY AND THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF ITS SURFACE RESPONSE INTO MIDWEEK...WITH RECENT MODEL TRENDS NOT EXACTLY OFFERING INCREASED CONFIDENCE. WHILE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER...THE BASIC GIST DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY BUT WITH LOADS OF DRY AIR DOWN LOW HINDERING ANY PRECIP CHANCES UP THIS WAY. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THAT EXACT TRACK WILL OF COURSE HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT TYPE OR TYPES OF PRECIP WE END UP SEEING HERE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT AT THE MOMENT...ALL TYPES ARE ON THE TABLE. GIVEN THIS IS MANY DAYS OUT WITH LOTS OF ROOM FOR CHANGES...WILL JUST KEEP THE GENERIC RAIN OR SNOW MENTION GOING...BUT NO DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASINGLY BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS AFTER WE CLEAR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 ...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES... AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER THAN ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SHALLOW OVERLAKE INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND INTO APN AND BACK TOWARD MBL. WARM ADVECTION INTO THIS CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT IT...LEAVING SCATTERED MID CLOUD IN STEEP LAPSE RATES REGIME AHEAD OF INCOMING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FOR TODAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG THIS FRONT...AND AS IT ROLLS THROUGH TODAY...EXPECTING LITTLE TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL ROAM THE AIRPORTS. A SECONDARY TROUGH/SURGE OF COLD AIR BLOWS THROUGH TONIGHT AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES AROUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR TVC/MBL. WIND WILL GUST 15-20KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING AOB 10KTS OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE SHORT TERM...SMD LONG TERM...LAWRENCE AVIATION...SMD  FXUS63 KAPX 160845 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS: EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD WITH A VERY DRY AND COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. 00Z APX SOUNDING PWAT WAS AN ASTOUNDINGLY LOW 0.02"...AND EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE -15 TO -30F RANGE. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY WIND AT THE TIME...SO WIND CHILLS DID NOT FACTOR INTO THE FRIGID EQUATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE WASN'T MUCH OF AN ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN HUDSON BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE DAKOTAS. PWATS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WEREN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE...INCREASED ONLY TO AROUND 0.15" AND WAA/DYNAMIC FORCING FAIRLY WEAK. THERE WAS ONLY SOME LIGHT 3-6SM SNOWS SEEN IN SW ONTARIO AND MN....AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MORE EXCITING WEATHER WAS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...WHERE A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...AND SPREADING IT EASTWARD. SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER: NOT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT FOR NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT WIND SCENARIO IS KEEPING LAKE INSTABILITY OUT OVER THE LAKES...BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A SW WINDS DEVELOPS. THIS WILL WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PULL SOME OF THE LAKE CONVECTION (CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES) BACK INTO PARTS OF NW LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MANISTEE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE COUNTIES...IMPACTING MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THESE SNOWS WILL PROGRESS UP THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE MORE ICE...PER YESTERDAY AFETRNOON'S LATEST HI RES MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL HAVE A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE INTENSITY AND INLAND EXTENT OF THOSE SNOWS. DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES MAKING IT INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS REGION. WINDS DO INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WHEN HE SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SYNOPTICALLY...WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING AND PWATS AT ONLY 0.15"...CANNOT SEE MORE THAN A HALF AN INCH ANYWHERE. ADD IN THE LAKES...AND COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES SPREADING INTO MAINLY NW LOWER...AND ESPECIALLY IN LEELANAU COUNTY...AND COUNTIES SOUTH. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS LESS ICE AND A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TOO...AS WAA DOES ALLOW MORE FAVORABLE H8 TEMPS/DGZ AND LIFT FOCUSED RIGHT ON IT. SO...CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PULLS THROUGH. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 9F-16F RANGE WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN CLOUDS 0F TO 10F. AT LEAST IT'S MORE TOLERABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ANYONE OUT THERE HAVE A "RETURN TO SENDER" STAMP I CAN APPLY FOR OUR MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER? I LIKE A GOOD COLD AIR OUTBREAK JUST AS MUCH AS THE NEXT WEATHER GEEK...BUT THIS PATTERN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS THAN AMUSING. AT LEAST IT'S A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...FEATURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (JUST A SHADE SLOWER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS). THAT FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP UPPER TROUGHING EGREGIOUSLY TRESPASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT AMUSING 500MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -50C INDICATIVE OF JUST HOW COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE INTO MIDWEEK. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS SETUP IN PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARILY TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WITH SOME REAL CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS - PRIMARILY DOWNSTATE AS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES ABUTTING OUR CWA HAS REALLY FROZEN UP OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST FOR A TIME. HAVING SAID THAT...MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND IT IS VERY INTERESTING TO SEE A HUGE HOLE IN QPF SIGNALS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF EXPANSIVE ICE COVER IN THE MODELS...AND BACKED UP BY YESTERDAY'S HI-RES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE MICHIGAN FROZEN DOWN TO SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT. STILL...WITH THAT SAID...SECONDARY TROUGH/LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONNECT US UP TO A BIT MORE OPEN (THOUGH NOT BY MUCH) LAKE SUPERIOR...AT LEAST SUGGESTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BETTER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. HONESTLY NOT THAT IMPRESSED WITH THE SETUP GIVEN ALL THAT ICE AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF ANY LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. THE MORE INTERESTING WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIMARILY DOWNSTATE AS OUR DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. SHARP LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW COUPLED WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME BELOW 900MB STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY ONE OF SEVERAL LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHS...WITH A VERY STABLE SIGNAL FOR FORCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER WHERE A PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUCKED BENEATH AN AXIS OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THAT SNOW BAND MAY JUST SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (LOOKING AT YOU MANISTEE AND BENZIE) BUT WITH A TREND FOR LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO LIKELY WORK IN BOTH FROM ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN ICE COVER TO DICTATE LITTLE MORE THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. IN SUCH A MESOSCALE-DOMINATE SETUP...CONFIDENCE IS NATURALLY LOW AND NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED...BUT HONESTLY BELIEVE MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL RESIDE OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. INSTEAD...WE WILL DEAL WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF VERY COLD AIR...AS H8 TEMPS DIVE BACK TOWARD -30C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SUGGESTING HIGHS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW ZERO BUT HIGHLY DICTATED BY HARD-TO-FORECAST CLOUD TRENDS. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 INCREASINGLY QUIET WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMS UP ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SETUP AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RID MANY AREAS OF ANY SNOW SHOWER THREAT WITH OFFSHORE CIRCULATIONS DOMINANT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EXTREMELY COLD READINGS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. ECMWF 2-METER GUIDANCE ALREADY INDICATING SUB-MINUS 20 READINGS IN MANY AREAS...AND PROVIDED CLOUD ISSUES DON'T CREEP UP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD GAMBLE. AFTER THAT...LOOKING A BIT MORE "MILD" INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE RELAX THE OVERALL DEPTH OF TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THOUGH WITH A GOOD DEAL OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AT THE MOMENT...THE MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN THE STREAMS FOR A MORE STRUNG OUT (BUT GULF MOISTURE-LOADED) SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THIS PATTERN DOES HAVE BETTER PHASING POTENTIAL. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT ALL UNFOLD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AFTER ALL...WE HAVE PLENTY TO KEEP OURSELVES BUSY UP UNTIL THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 VFR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND SOME SHSN LIKELY AT PLN MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO TVC/MBL IN THE EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN WI BY LATE MONDAY. MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. LOW-END VFR STRATOCU WILL MOVE INTO MBL/TVC/PLN MONDAY...AS WEAK SW LOW- LEVEL FLOW BEGINS. LAKE-EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE AT PLN DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO TVC/MBL DURING THE EVENING. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES MONDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SMD SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE LONG TERM...LAWRENCE AVIATION...JAZ