---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 280845 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 An upper low will move out of the Arctic into northern Saskatchewan today then head south reaching the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border by 00Z Saturday. A fast quasi-zonal flow will occur across the Northland prior to this upper low nearing the region with a shortwave arriving Friday bringing a chance for light snow to much of the Northland. Portions of northern Minnesota will be brushed by the southern portions of an area of low pressure that will track through Manitoba into Ontario today. Clouds will increase over northern Minnesota into far northern Wisconsin through the day and there may be some flurries over parts of far northern Minnesota. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, generally from 20 to 25. Light snow will spread southwest to northeast through much of the Northland on Friday with snow likely over all but far northern Minnesota by Friday afternoon. Snow amounts will vary from less than an inch along the International Border to 1 to 3 inches elsewhere Friday into Friday evening. Areas south of US Highway 2, including northern Wisconsin will have the best chance at seeing the higher accumulation. Highs will again be below normal and range from the upper teens to mid twenties. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 Overall, the extended forecast period continues to show mostly dry conditions, with temperatures continuing to be near to well-below seasonal average. Dangerous wind chills will be likely this upcoming weekend. The remnants of a compact mid-level shortwave, progged to be situated over the SE SD/NW IA/SW MN region, will continue to translate eastward Friday night and Saturday morning, resulting in some light accumulating snowfall, mainly over our eastern areas. Generally between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of new snow accumulation is expected Friday evening (on top of what falls Friday morning and afternoon), with lighter amounts possible for adjacent areas of northeast Minnesota. This could lead to some slick road conditions for the Friday evening commute. As the compact wave shifts eastward, a large-scale upper-level low will develop over Manitoba, and continue over northern Ontario through the upcoming weekend. This upper-level low should help to usher in some arctic air, characterized by 850 mb temperatures in the -20 to -30 degree C range. This, coupled with some gusty winds, will lead to dangerous wind chill values between -25 to -40 degrees Saturday night/Sunday morning, and again for Sunday night/Monday morning. Overnight lows over the weekend will fall into the teens below zero. Highs on Sunday will only warm into the single digits above zero. The upper-level low will eventually move out of the region during the early part of next week, but a few additional shortwaves will move through the region Monday and Tuesday, which could bring some cloud cover and chances of light snow. The main impact will most likely be along the Lake Superior snowbelt region, where prolonged chances of lake effect snow will be possible. However, the lake effect snow potential will largely depend on how much lake ice there is. The latest MODIS satellite imagery from yesterday shows most of western Lake Superior is covered in lake ice, and with temperatures not expected to warm to above freezing through the upcoming week, lake ice coverage should remain quite dominant. However, by mid- week, temperatures will rebound a bit, but remain below freezing, as high pressure ridging builds in from the west. High temperatures could make a return to the 20s above zero for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 High pressure nearby has resulted in VFR for the first half of the forecast. Some flurries may affect INL after 09Z and have a VCSH mention due to low confidence in timing. By mid morning, MVFR cigs will begin to push into the vicinity of INL/HIB/BRD ahead of the next round of light snow/area of low pressure. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 21 3 21 2 / 0 10 80 30 INL 20 -4 19 -5 / 10 10 20 20 BRD 20 0 20 -2 / 0 10 80 10 HYR 23 2 24 2 / 0 10 80 50 ASX 24 6 23 6 / 0 0 80 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melde LONG TERM...JTS AVIATION...GSF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 240834 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 - Widespread strong and damaging winds expected today. - Winter weather concerns this afternoon and tonight, with Blizzard conditions possible across Central Lower MI. - Turning colder tonight through Tuesday which is a concern for those that will lose power, which is likely to be many. && .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 The storm remains on track in the latest model runs and no big changes were made to the forecast. The depth and track of the low have been very consistent. Strong and damaging winds are almost certain today with gusts in the middle of the night across portions of MO and IL to in excess of 60 mph, and the low will only continue to deepen today as it works northeast through the area. A concern is the fact that this low will move on a track closer to our area than the 1998 Fall Storm, the Fitzgerald Storm of 1975 or the Armistice Day storm of 1940. All of those systems tracked further west across Wisconsin. This storm will move across Lake Michigan today which will put the rise/fall pressure couplet and therefore the strongest winds right through our area. Model cross sections in BUFKIT continue to show mixing depths tapping 65 knots around 4,000ft. Winds in excess of 50 mph are a certainty, with 60 mph likely and even higher values possible. We are looking at widespread power outages some of which that will likely last days. This is especially a concern with temperatures crashing into the teens tonight and remaining there Monday. The strong winds will reach the far south around daybreak this morning sweeping northeast through the day. By mid afternoon the entire area will be experiencing high winds. The worst of the winds look to occur from around noon through midnight tonight. As for the snow side of this system, we should flip precipitation over to snow as we head toward midday. Lake effect will commence later in the day as the cold air really pours in. Some model guidance like the NAM is showing higher totals than we are forecasting and may be the odd model out. The ECMWF and GFS remain consistent with an inch or two possible in most areas and 3-5 inches across portions of Central Lower Michigan. Have no issue with the Blizzard warning given the strength of the wind and accumulating snows. The worst of the blizzard conditions are likely this afternoon and especially this evening for places like Baldwin, Evart and Big Rapids. The snow will taper off overnight into Monday morning and the winds will finally begin to ease up some. Two systems will affect longer range in the forecast, one on Tues/Wed and another on Fri/Sat. The late in the week system is trending stronger and could bring some additional accumulating snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1256 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 Very active period coming up for aviation interests over the next 24 hours. The first set of impacts this morning are LIFR-VLIFR conditions with low clouds/rain/fog in place over the area, and some thunder to go with it. This will all linger through much of the night, except the thunder which should be out of the area by 10z or so. Winds will switch direction with the front coming through, and start to increase a bit. Cigs and vsbys may improve a little, but plenty of IFR expected to hold in. Rain showers will change to snow showers, and winds will increase markedly by late morning. Wind gusts around and possibly over 50 knots are expected by 17z. Snow showers will be going on, and the wind will blow the falling snow. Drifting snow does not look likely until later with temps above freezing for a bit. Blowing and drifting will become more of a problem for the western sites with lingering snow and lake effect. Wind gusts will remain up through most of the remainder of the forecast, with maybe a slight improvement right at the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Very strong low pressure will move through the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, creating winds in of 50-60 mph out on Lake Michigan. Sustained winds of this magnitude do not occur very often. And it has been quite some time since we have seen this type of wind, for the length of time that we will have it with high water levels. Water levels were on the low side of normal on Lake Michigan from roughly 1999 through 2013. So, we have not seen a storm/higher water level combination like this probably since the November 1998 fall storm. Keep in mind that a water level rise will occur on our side of the lake due to the strong push of west winds. Rises may be on the order of a couple of feet above the already higher than normal water levels. Our concerns at the shoreline and in river mouths are multiple. First, we may see flooding in river mouths where water will be forced between the pierheads and down the channels into towns. Large rolling waves will be sweeping down the river channels as well which will add to the issues. Second, shoreline ice based on a MODIS satellite image from two days ago is not continuous. So, in areas where there is no ice or limited ice the waves will be able to carry their power to the beach and the dunes. The toe of the dune (the base) may become unstable and allow the dune face to slump or slide down into the water. Persons with shoreline interests should be aware of this threat. Finally, what ice is in place will be moved around by the large waves and we could see ice crashing into the shoreline in spots where it can become mobile. As for wave heights, the November 1998 storm had a peak wave at the Southern Lake Michigan buoy of 20 feet. This storm looks to be no different as the WaveWatch3 and the GLERL model are both indicating peak waves occurring between Grand Haven and South Haven between 19 and 20 feet around 700pm. Stay away from the shoreline as water will likely be pushed into places you have not seen it before. Pier decks will be completely swamped by waves of this magnitude. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 A significant warmup as well as rainfall expected this weekend will start the process of river levels rising again. Anytime we think about rapid warmups and rainfall this time of year leads to the logical question about flooding potential. The good news is that at this point it looks like the rain totals will be low enough and the warmup will be brief enough to avoid widespread and significant flooding across our area over the next week. However, significant rises are very likely on virtually all of our rivers, and by the first half of next week many of our rivers will again be near bankfull. We will keep a close eye on forecast trends, but right now it looks like our rivers should escape without major issues. The one fly in the ointment is the renewed threat of ice jams on some of our rivers. The last big rise on our rivers a few weeks ago destroyed a lot of the river ice, which will now work to our advantage (you can't have an ice jam without ice). Limited amounts of new ice have formed on parts of the rivers, but most of our rivers remain mostly ice-free at this time. However, there are some rivers that still have solid ice covering them, including parts of the Grand River (Portland, Grand Rapids area, and Eastmanville/Robinson Township). These areas will be the focus for potential ice jam formation over the next week, and should be watched closely. Once the upcoming warm and windy weather passes, temperatures will again plunge for next week, which will limit additional snowmelt and start to give the rivers a chance to recover from all the new water. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ037>040-043>045. Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM Monday morning for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duke DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Duke HYDROLOGY...AMD/63  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 230830 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 - Strong and Damaging winds likely on Sunday - Burst of lake effect snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday night - Chance for thunderstorms this evening - Small chances for some freezing rain this morning - Large waves and high water levels on Lake Michigan (see marine section) && .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday) Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 A strong low pressure system will move through the state of Michigan over the course of the next 24 to 36 hours. The low will reach depths rival some of the deepest lows to move through our area. By Sunday evening the low will be northeast of Sault Ste. Marie at a depth of around 971 MB's. This is rival any of the deeper lows of historic fall storms like the 1998 storm, the Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of 1940. Of note is the fact that a 1040 mb high will be in place over the plains states which will create a very strong pressure gradient over the Great Lakes. A very strong rise fall surface pressure couplet will swing across the forecast area, with the ECMWF showing 6 hr pressure rises to our northeast in excess of 20mb's. Bottom line, we have strong winds coming on Sunday. They should sweep in right around daybreak and peak through the course of the day. The strongest winds will occur between 700am and 700pm, but strong winds will continue into Sunday night as well. At this point based on coordination with APX, DTX and IWX have decided to continue with the going watch. Decisions on the watch transitioning into warnings or advisories will occur on the day shift today. We do believe the biggest impacts will come from the wind however, in terms of downed trees and tree limbs falling onto power lines. Power outages can be expected. In terms of winter impacts, it appears snowfall totals are going to be on the lighter side. Lake effect snow is expected to develop Sunday afternoon lasting into Sunday night. The deepest moisture will be across Central Lower Michigan, where our highest snowfall totals will occur. We will likely see 1-3, maybe 4 inches across interior portions of Central Lower, tapering to an inch or less elsewhere across the area. There will be some periods of whiteouts up towards Big Rapids, Baldwin and Evart Sunday evening. For the most part though this looks to be a wind producer. We are expecting winds to increase into the 25-40 mph range with gusts of 50-60 mph. The highest gusts will likely occur towards Lake Michigan. We have a chance of thunderstorms this evening into the overnight hours ahead of the cold front. 900pm to 400am will be the time frame when we may see a storm or two embedded in a larger rain shield. We are not expecting severe storms, but with a 50-60 knot low level jet a few damaging wind gusts are not out of the question tonight. We cannot rule out a little bit of freezing rain this morning, especially across Central Lower Michigan. Model consensus continues to show a small chance but amounts have trended down with each run. The ECMWF would indicate that the threat is minimal with temps above freezing area wide by noon. Otherwise, the flow turns zonal for the remainder of the forecast period with some discrepancies between the ECMWF and the GFS. The GFS has a couple of systems (Tues/Wed and Fri) next week, whereas the ECWMF is fairly quiet. We will likely keep colder air in place at least into mid week behind the this weekend's system. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1248 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Impacts for aviation interests will be initially limited with VFR conditions ruling. We will see a steady deterioration in conditions after 16z-18z and through the end of the period. This worsening trend will be the result of the storm system to our SW approaching the area and bringing plenty of low level moisture and shower activity. We expect to start going IFR after 18z and beyond. We are also bringing thunder into all the terminals, likely after 00z when the better elevated instability moves overhead. Winds will also increase, but should not be too bad by the end of the period with gusts up around 25 to 30 knots. An increase in gusts will be possible right after this forecast period with the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 With storm force winds out on the lake, waves will reach large heights on Sunday. Waves of 12 to 18 feet are likely. I would not be surprised to see a few of the peak waves hit 20 feet towards Sunday evening. Water levels are higher than normal already and with a sustained westerly wind we may see some lakeshore flooding. The flooding potential is two fold. First, we may see some flooding into port towns, as water is forced through the pier heads and into town. The high water levels from current levels + the storm rise, will combine with rollers coming down the channels which could lead to some flooding. The second concern is where shore ice is lower or limited. Large waves will be able to carry some force to the beach in these areas and create erosion at the toe of the dune. Yesterday's MODIS satellite shot showed some ice up and down the shore, but it not wide. Ice in the open waters will be tore up quickly by the wave action. Any headline issuance will be considered on the dayshift. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 A significant warmup as well as rainfall expected this weekend will start the process of river levels rising again. Anytime we think about rapid warmups and rainfall this time of year leads to the logical question about flooding potential. The good news is that at this point it looks like the rain totals will be low enough and the warmup will be brief enough to avoid widespread and significant flooding across our area over the next week. However, significant rises are very likely on virtually all of our rivers, and by the first half of next week many of our rivers will again be near bankfull. We will keep a close eye on forecast trends, but right now it looks like our rivers should escape without major issues. The one fly in the ointment is the renewed threat of ice jams on some of our rivers. The last big rise on our rivers a few weeks ago destroyed a lot of the river ice, which will now work to our advantage (you can't have an ice jam without ice). Limited amounts of new ice have formed on parts of the rivers, but most of our rivers remain mostly ice-free at this time. However, there are some rivers that still have solid ice covering them, including parts of the Grand River (Portland, Grand Rapids area, and Eastmanville/Robinson Township). These areas will be the focus for potential ice jam formation over the next week, and should be watched closely. Once the upcoming warm and windy weather passes, temperatures will again plunge for next week, which will limit additional snowmelt and start to give the rivers a chance to recover from all the new water. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duke DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Duke HYDROLOGY...AMD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 191202 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 602 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 .UPDATE... No change to the forecast for today. There is still patchy freezing fog out there that may cause some slick spots on roads. && .AVIATION(12Z TAFS)... There is patchy freezing ground fog out there early this morning. VFR conditions are expected today and through much of tonight. Look for snow to spread in quickly early Wednesday morning from the southwest. There will probably be a period of moderate snow with the main wave that moves through between 4 and 8 am, especially toward Janesville and Madison and areas west. Snow will transition to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and eventually rain in southeast WI, and a wintry mix over south central and east central WI midday Wednesday. It may remain all snow toward the Dells. Temperatures will max out in the lower 30s, right around freezing. && .MARINE... Yesterday's MODIS satellite imagery shows that the nearshore areas are largely ice covered. That may break apart as onshore winds develop late tonight. Easterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected Expect increasing easterly winds early Wednesday morning as low pressure approaches from the Plains. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected. Gale force gusts are possible, but should not be frequent enough for a gale warning at this time. Winds will shift to the west- southwest Wednesday night. Again, gale force gusts are possible. Winds will diminish through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory was posted for the nearshore areas of southeast WI. Yesterday's MODIS satellite imagery shows that the nearshore areas are largely ice covered. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 436 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019) SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High. There are pockets of very cold temps early this morning due to efficient radiational cooling. There are even pockets of freezing fog that developed. Freezing fog can cause slippery road conditions. Thin high clouds are beginning to spread into southern WI from the south. Expect quiet weather and light winds today with filtered sunshine. Highs will be in the mid 20s. Temperatures will remain mild tonight with increasing clouds and warm air advection ahead of low pressure approaching from the Plains. Wednesday... Forecast Confidence is Medium to High. Look for snow to spread in quickly early Wednesday morning from the southwest, right during the morning commute. There will probably be a period of moderate snow with the main wave that moves through between 4 and 8 am, especially toward Janesville and Madison and areas west. Snow will transition to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and eventually rain in southeast WI, and a wintry mix over south central and east central WI midday Wednesday. It may remain all snow toward the Dells. Timing for the Winter Weather Advisory headlines was tricky, but general thinking is that snow will spread into our south earlier than the northern areas toward central WI. Far southeast WI will likely rise above freezing by late afternoon which would help precip transition to all rain, so that area has an earlier end time of 3 pm. 6 pm is probably a little long to keep the advisory going in the southern half of WI since the precip will be ending from south to north, but this can account for if the system slows down. Temperatures will max out in the lower 30s, right around freezing. This will allow salt and other road treatments to work on diminishing snow/mixed precip during the afternoon. The best forcing for precip will arrive during the morning hours and impact the morning commute. This is associated with mainly 850mb frontogenesis, although strong 700mb warm air advection and frontogenesis will help to saturate the column. Behind that main snow band, dry air at 600-500mb RH spreads into southeast WI and potentially south central WI from late Wed morning through the afternoon. This will cut the moisture out of the snow growth zone and leave us with a deep layer of sub- freezing air with no ice crystals, thus freezing rain. If the dry slot is deep enough, then we would get lighter precip which would give us freezing drizzle instead. Either way, surface temperatures will take their time warming above freezing so we could end up with a glaze of ice or perhaps up to a tenth of an inch in a few spots, enough to create travel headaches through much of the day. Wednesday night through Thursday night...Forecast confidence high. The upper wave and occluded front will mostly be through srn WI by Wed eve so any lingering mixed pcpn will be very light. Brisk wly winds and cold advection will prevail the remainder of the night. The wly winds will gradually lessen on Thu as high pressure approaches. The high will settle over srn WI for Thu nt with single digit temps inland. The high will then move to the lower Great Lakes on Fri with an esely flow developing over srn WI. High temps will be near seasonal normals for Thu-Fri. LONG TERM...Friday night through Monday...Forecast confidence medium. Chances of mixed pcpn are forecast late Fri nt-Sat as warm advection occurs well ahead of strong cyclogenesis over the srn Great Plains. The deepening low will track from the srn Great Plains to se WI by Sun AM. This would bring widespread pcpn for Sat nt-Sun AM with more rain than snow over the se half of the area, and more snow than rain north and northwest of Madison. A period of windy conditions will likely occur as the low deepens into the 980s mb. High pressure then returns for Mon. AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...There is patchy freezing ground fog out there early this morning. VFR conditions are expected today and through much of tonight. Look for snow to spread in quickly early Wednesday morning from the southwest. There will probably be a period of moderate snow with the main wave that moves through between 4 and 8 am, especially toward Janesville and Madison and areas west. Snow will transition to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and eventually rain in southeast WI, and a wintry mix over south central and east central WI midday Wednesday. It may remain all snow toward the Dells. Temperatures will max out in the lower 30s, right around freezing. MARINE...Expect increasing easterly winds early Wednesday morning as low pressure approaches from the Plains. Gale force gusts are possible, but not expected to be frequent enough for a gale warning at this time. Winds will shift to the west-southwest Wednesday night. Again, gale force gusts are possible. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the nearshore areas of southeast WI. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ056-062>065-067>070. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ066-071-072. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ046-047-051-052-057>060. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646. && $$ Update...Cronce Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Gehring  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 170934 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 334 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Relatively quiet weather continues through the day Monday, with some chances of light lake effect snow/flurries along the North Shore south to the Twin Ports today and tonight. An upper-level longwave trough will persist over the Intermountain West states through the day Monday, along with a sub-tropical jet rounding the base of the trough, over the southern United States. A surface low pressure system will remain over the central Mississippi River valley region today, well south of the Northland. However, this will result in northeasterly flow over the Northland through tonight, which will result in some chances of lake effect snowfall, which should remain light in nature. Some of the models are hinting at this lake effect snow, such as the NAMNest and WRF NMM models, as well as the 17.00z GFS model. The latest MODIS satellite imagery still shows a good bit of ice coverage over Lake Superior, with some breaks along the North Shore, which should be sufficient enough for some light snow to develop, along with 850mb-to-lake delta-T values between 13 to 18 degrees C. The main limiting factor will be a lack of deep-layer moisture, although some shallow saturation will be available to promote ice crystal growth. For now, snow accumulation will be light, with a coating to no more than a half inch possible. This lake effect snow should continue into the evening hours tonight, but will shift more southward due to a backing wind profile in the low-levels, so some light snow/flurries could linger near the Twin Ports and adjacent areas of the South Shore this evening. Some flurries will also be possible over our far southern counties due to forcing from the aforementioned large- scale trough. Highs today will range from the upper teens to lower 20s. Another chilly night is expected tonight, with some clearing skies to the north, which will promote some radiational cooling. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits to near zero south and lower teens below zero north. Monday looks to be drier at the moment as high pressure will slowly build back into the region, which will push the mid-level wave to the east. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny on Monday, with highs in the teens. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Below to near seasonable temperatures this week with a chance for measurable snowfall mid-week, then a prolonged chance for light snow late week into the weekend. On the synoptic scale, a fairly active pattern across North America, but locally generally low sensible weather impacts as the main storm track shifts to the south compared to earlier this month. The week begins with a mid/upper level longwave trough over the southwest with a few weak mid-level shortwave troughs across the Great Plains. One of these waves located over the northern Plains will track east towards the Great Lakes, leading to clouds Monday night into early Tuesday, but a very low chance for any precip. A broad area of high pressure builds across the Midwest on Tuesday leading to decreasing clouds, with southerly low level flow developing. The main longwave trough over the southwest slowly ejects into the southern Plains and Mississippi River Valley mid-week, leading to a broad area of large-scale lift producing light snowfall over much of the Midwest. Guidance continues to trend slightly east with the area of heaviest precipitation, though the latest 00z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive than the rest of the guidance suite. Generally around 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is possible, with the best chance for snow in northwest Wisconsin. The greatest impacts from this snow would likely be during the Wednesday morning commute, with snow quickly ending towards Wednesday evening. Areas in north-central Minnesota would be on the western edge of the snowfall, with locations like Brainerd and International Falls possibly only receiving a coating to an inch of snowfall. Just as one mid/upper level longwave trough ejects out of the southwest, another develops as a wave descends from the Pacific Northwest into the southwest to replace it late-week. Like the early/mid week pattern, this wave would also likely eject into the southern Great Plains producing a broad area of precipitation, though the track for this system would likely be a more southerly track than the early/mid week storm. There is greater than usual spread in terms of how far north/south the resultant precip may develop along with the intensity, but the guidance consensus is for a repeat of the mid-week snowfall, perhaps greater or less in intensity - more likely to be the same or less in intensity. A warming trend in temperatures with highs in the low 30s across northwest Wisconsin by Saturday, which is near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 VFR conditions prevail through the period for all TAF sites except DLH. With east-northeasterly flow over Lake Superior, lake induced lower ceilings with some flurries/light snow will move over the North Shore and affect DLH tonight into the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 18 0 15 -2 / 30 10 0 0 INL 18 -9 11 -12 / 0 0 0 10 BRD 21 -1 15 -7 / 10 10 0 0 HYR 22 2 18 -1 / 0 10 0 0 ASX 19 1 16 0 / 0 10 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...KC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 160926 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 330 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2019 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - High. Temperatures dropped into the single digits below zero from the Wisconsin River Valley to Fond du Lac and northward early this morning due to radiational cooling. There is thin cirrus streaming into southern WI that is associated with a mid level wave approaching. Aside from mid and high level clouds, there will be no impacts for southern WI from this feature today. Lake effect clouds coincident with high 925mb RH expanded from Green Bay into the Sheboygan area around midnight and have remained fairly stationary overnight. Another area of stratus lake clouds spread into the Chicago area. With winds turning around to the east through the morning, we can expect the low clouds to expand across the rest of the lakeshore counties. Flurries are likely with these clouds as they are right around -10C. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium to High. Short term guidance remains in good consistency and agreement regarding weakening low level circulation tied to upper level jet passing to the south of Wisconsin on Sunday. This low level circulation will move along a baroclinic zone draped across the region, however the tighter thermal low level boundary will be to the south in IL/IA. The strongest synoptic lift with this system across southern WI will be late tonight into Sunday morning as a period of sloping frontogenetical forcing interacts the better Dendritic Growth Zone. This synoptic scale forcing weakens during the afternoon but lingering warm air advection and low level convergence will continue to generate lift across the area. In addition, lake enhancement will add to the synoptic lift during the day as Delta-T increases to around 10-11C as the low level winds gradually back from the east to the northeast. The synoptic lift shifts to the east by Sunday evening, however the threat for pure lake effect will increase as the low level winds remain northeast for a period of time resulting in a longer fetch. The delta-T increases to 13-14 degrees so expecting additional light accumulations near the lakeshore Sunday night. Using Cobb, thickness and climatology techniques, used Snow Liquid Ratio's of 15 to 19 to 1, which was lower then Superblend. Using average QPF around 0.18, which was close to Model Certainty mean, ended up with snowfall mostly in the 2 to 4" range with highest amounts in the southwest and closer to Lake Michigan. However some 5" possible in these areas per probabilities. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for the south and east due to expected impacts on Sunday travel, but wl let day shift make final decision. Lingering lake effect Sunday night should taper off late in the night into early Monday. .LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium. The extended period should start out on a quiet and cold note with amplifying short wave ridging and a large surface high pressure area moving across the region. The quiet weather will be short-lived however as an upstream long wave trof over the western CONUS will be ejecting a stronger piece of short wave energy in the midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will have a bit more "kick" to it then the Sunday system and will likely bring another round of light snow to the area beginning later Tuesday night and possibly lingering through Wednesday night. There remains considerable variation in the Medium Range ensembles the track and strength of this low pressure area. However using a blend of the GEM, GFS and ECMWF places southern WI squarely in a period of synoptic scale lift during this period. Low level temperature profile shows mostly -sn, however a wintery mix may push into southeast areas on Wednesday. Once again, lake enhancement may increase snowfall closer to the lake due to a persistent low level easterly fetch over the mostly open waters of Lake Michigan. SLR will likely be in the 13 to 18 to 1 range. Looking like a potential for another 3 to 6" snowfall across the area. Possible that lake effect snow showers linger through Wednesday night before the low level winds turn NNW by Thursday. The persistent upstream long wave trof keeps the active weather going towards the weekend as well, with potentially another system bringing a wintery mix to the area around Saturday. While the mid-level steering winds remain from the WSW, cold air will remain firmly entrenched in the low levels. So expect temperatures to be below normal for most of this period. && .AVIATION(09Z TAFS)... Stratus with MVFR ceilings around 2100 feet spread into the Sheboygan area around midnight and have held steady for the time being. Expect these low clouds to spread across the rest of the lakeshore counties through mid morning as winds turn around to the east. The top of the shallow saturated layer is right around -10C, sufficient for flurries today. Clouds should continue to expand inland through the afternoon. Look for accumulating snow to spread into southern WI from the southeast late tonight and persist through Sunday evening before dissipating. Lake enhanced snow showers will likely contribute to higher snowfall amounts for lakeshore areas on Sunday. Then a lake effect snow band may brush southeast WI Sunday night into Monday morning as well. && .MARINE... We are not expecting gale force winds within the next week. Increasing east to northeast winds will build high waves in the nearshore from late tonight through Monday morning. We held off on a headline at this time. The latest MODIS satellite image from yesterday shows 50-70% ice cover over the nearshore areas but wide open over the open waters, with the exception of the far north. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. $$ TODAY AND TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 160908 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 308 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 A generally quiet forecast through the day Sunday, with only increasing cloud cover and small chances of light snow over the far southern areas and along the North Shore of the forecast area on Sunday. For today, increasing cirrus clouds will be the main story as a weak mid-level impulse moves through the region. At the surface, an area of high pressure will translate across the Northland, which will keep drier air in place and inhibit any chances of precipitation. Overall, skies will be partly sunny, with highs a bit below seasonal average, in the upper teens and lower 20s. An upper-level low will build across the Intermountain West states today, which will keep the sub-tropical jet stream over the southern United States. Embedded lobes of vorticity in the large scale upper trough will eventually eject eastward into the Midwest region tonight. While the synoptic guidance keeps the bulk of the forcing to the south of the Northland (closer to a surface low pressure, progged to translate across the southern United States), the vorticity should be close enough to at least increase our cloud cover from the south late tonight and through the day Sunday. There is also the small potential for some light snow, mainly near the Brainerd area and points southeast towards Hinckley - only a limited area. It's unclear at this point if this light snow will even materialize as the models disagree on the amount of available moisture for precipitation, with the NAM keeping things dry through Sunday, as well as the hires guidance. Moreover, some small chances of lake effect snow will be possible due to eastern flow off Lake Superior. The latest MODIS satellite imagery does show less ice coverage over Lake Superior compared to a few days ago, so introduced some small chance pops along the North Shore during the day Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 238 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 A fairly quiet weather period next week with temperatures slightly below normal and a few chances for light snow, with the best chance for snow on Wednesday when northwest Wisconsin and parts of northeast Minnesota might see 1-3 inches. On the synoptic scale, a persistent mid/upper level longwave trough will develop over the southwest, resulting in southwesterly flow at mid/upper levels through next week and into next weekend. At low levels a weak cold front moves in from the northwest to start off the week cooler with some clouds, but little to no chance for precipitation outside a low chance for light lake effect snow along the south shore (subject to western Lake Superior ice coverage). High pressure builds in Tuesday leading to the coldest lows Monday night into Tuesday morning as skies clear out, with lows ranging from zero to 15 below zero, coldest in north-central Minnesota. Tuesday will probably be the best day to enjoy the great outdoors with mainly sunny skies, despite being the coldest day with highs in the upper single digits to near 20 above zero. Some locations might even get into the mid/upper 20s in northwest Wisconsin if skies are mostly sunny for the day as currently forecast. Mid-week, a widespread chance for snowfall arrives as a mid-level longwave trough ejects out of the southwest into the central and southern Great Plain and towards the Upper Great Lakes. The wave will be fairly broad with broad-scale lift across a very large area, without any significant surface low developing in response to the wave. However, with warm air advection across a broad area of low/mid level moisture ahead of the wave, there should be a sufficient response to produce a broad area of light snowfall across the Midwest. Precipitation chances will be best across northwest Wisconsin, less so in northeast Minnesota, with areas north and west of the Iron Range likely to receive less than an inch of snow. Otherwise, a broad chance for 1 to 3 inches of snowfall, beginning Wednesday afternoon and likely to be over well before the Thursday morning commute. This might have some minor impacts to the Wednesday evening commute in some spots. Late-week temperatures trend slightly warmer back towards normal values for this time of year, but guidance diverges a bit in terms of specifics. There is likely to be another chance for light precipitation late-Friday into Saturday, but timing and location differences between guidance and their ensembles leads to low confidence in any one time frame. However, given the forcing mechanism will be another broad shortwave trough approaching from the southwest, any precipitation amounts would be expected to be light. Highs warm up to the 20s on Saturday with a few spots in northwest Wisconsin near 30, which is right about normal for late February. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019 High pressure over the region will lead to mainly clear skies with light winds for most of the period. However, conditions still seem on track for potential early morning fog development over INL and possibly HIB. IFR conditions, potentially lower, are possible over INL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 19 3 18 2 / 0 0 10 10 INL 17 -7 18 -8 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 19 4 20 3 / 0 10 10 10 HYR 23 4 21 3 / 0 10 10 10 ASX 21 1 18 3 / 0 10 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...KC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 280319 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 919 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019 .UPDATE...Dry air in place over southern WI contributing to eroding first push of lift associated with warm air advection ahead of strengthening Dakotas low pressure. Hence 1-3 hour delay in snow begin times. 00Z NAM initially takes a slightly more southward track of the low across IA into northwest IL tonight into Monday morning, however it then moves northeast to near Wind Lake by 18Z. This would keep the enhanced lift from Lake Michigan from Milwaukee north, so still thinking the heaviest accumulations would be in this area. Never the less, still like total accumulations anywhere from 6 to 14 inches across southern WI, with the highest amounts in the east. No changes to headlines at this time. && .MARINE...Tightening pressure gradient associated with approaching low pressure from the Dakotas will result in gusty southeast winds developing overnight, with potential gales reaching 35 to 40 knots in the open waters. A few gales to 35 knots may affect the nearshore waters late tonight into early Monday but not expected to be frequent enough to warrant upgrading Small Craft Advisory to Gale Warning at this time. Much of the nearshore waters ice covered as well per latest hi resolution MODIS imagery from today. No change to ongoing marine headlines at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 622 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019) UPDATE...Period of mostly clear skies late this afternoon and early evening has allowed temperatures to fall off rapidly in the eastern areas. Mid-high clouds have spread into western CWA and will continue east the next 1-2 hours, causing temperatures to level off. However needed to lower temps in eastern areas a few degrees. Leading edge of the snow spreading ESE across northeast IA and southeast MN. This will continue to spread rapidly southeast and spread across south central and southeast WI between 730 pm and 11 pm. Winter Storm Warning now in effect for western areas. The heaviest snows is expected later tonight into Monday morning. AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Snow will spread across southern Wisconsin this evening with ceilings and vsbys quickly lowering to low MVFR and IFR. Low level winds become southeast and increase late this evening, increasing the chance for lake enhancement to the incoming snow later tonight into Monday morning. Areas of blowing snow are expected due to the more powdery nature of the snow and wind gusts up to 30 mph. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 349 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019) SHORT TERM... Tonight and Monday...Forecast Confidence is high. Major winter storm on track to affect the region tonight and Monday. Winter storm warning remains in effect. Changes to the forecast include an hour or two later snow arrival time this evening. Increased snowfall between 6 AM and Noon on Monday. Snow will gradually enter from west to east this evening and warm advection aloft kicks into gear at the nose of a 45kt low level jet. HRRR/RAP have come into line with GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM with the surface low strengthening and track. With the majority of the area north of the low track that goes across northern Illinois, we are poised for significant snow accumulation. QPF output remains robust, suggesting 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates overnight through the mid morning hours Monday. This will cause significant travel impacts, with substantial impacts to the Monday morning commute. All areas can expect at least 6 inches of snowfall with a widespread 6-10 inches forecast. The axis of highest snowfall, between 10 and 14 inches is focused on the northeast portion of the forecast area, including areas in and around Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Port Washington, West Bend and Juneau. It is entirely possible this band of higher snow shifts just a bit to the south and includes the the I-94 corridor. Bottom line, widespread heavy snow is expected. Lake enhancement will likely add 2-4 inches for lake front counties overnight through mid Monday morning. Right now, Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee are most prone to these higher amounts. It is not out of reason to see storm total snowfall around 18 inches where lake enhancement is maximized. Snow will gradually taper off from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will then shift to the north/northwest and become gusty. This will result in considerable blowing and drifting of the newly fallen snow. This will create additional impacts to the evening commute. It should be noted that forecast wind speeds and gusts fall short of blizzard criteria (35kt for 3 hours or more). That said, considerable blowing and drifting is expected, especially Monday afternoon into Monday night. LONG TERM... Monday Night Through Thursday Night... Forecast Confidence is High. Arctic air will slide into the Upper Midwest late Monday night in the wake of the winter storm. This is due to an upper low barreling into the region. Southern WI will remain in a tight pressure gradient as the surface low pressure system stalls over the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure builds into the Northern Plains and then eventually into the Midwest. Low temperatures and wind chill values Monday night will be modest as winds remain fairly light and clouds linger. Westerly winds will begin to increase Tuesday morning with the leading edge of the arctic front. We should at least see some flurries with this, if not widespread light snow with a dusting of accumulation. The powdery snow on the ground will have a good chance of blowing around, so expect drifting snow across north-south oriented roads. The heart of the cold air will arrive in southern WI late Tuesday night. There is a discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF about how cold the 850mb temps will be (ECMWF is 10 degrees colder), but they agree on the 925mb temps being in the 32 to 35 degree below zero range. Low temps should be around -20 near the lakeshore and -26 well inland Wednesday morning. With brisk westerly winds all night and into the morning, wind chill values will be in the -40 to -50 degree range. These values are on par with records set in 1982 and 1985. Winds will begin to diminish Wednesday evening. With clearing skies, we have a pretty good chance at dropping into the 20s below zero once again, with wind chill values around -40. We held off with wind chill headlines to get through this winter storm. We will probably need a wind chill advisory for Monday night and then a wind chill watch that would roll into a warning for Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Expect these to be issued by tomorrow afternoon. Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium. As high pressure shifts into the eastern US, expect temperatures to rebound into the lower/mid 30s across southern Wisconsin by this weekend. With this round of warm air advection, we can expect some chances for mixed precipitation during this time. AVIATION(21Z TAFS)... Major winter storm still on track to affect the region tonight and Monday. Only change to the forecast was to delay snow onset by an hour or two. Confidence is high in impactful snow, with one to two inch per hour rates overnight, and lasting into the mid morning hours of Monday at MKE/UES/ENW. Winds will be light/variable late this afternoon and early this evening before establishing a southerly direction and becoming gusty at times overnight. IFR ceilings will spread over the region with the heavy snow, with LIFR visibility possible from time to time. IFR ceilings will persist into much of Monday. Winds will gradually shift to the northwest on Monday, becoming increasingly gusty during the afternoon and evening. Snow will taper off from west to east from the late morning through the afternoon hours. Flurries may linger into Monday evening. MARINE... Nearshore Waters... Expect gusts of 25 to 30 knots later tonight through Monday. Winds will be southeast tonight and north on Monday. A small craft advisory remains in effect tonight into Thursday. Expect high waves and freezing spray toward the open waters and ice free areas of the near shore into Monday. West winds will remain gusty through much of the week with gusts to 30 kts at times. Open Waters... A Gale Warning remain in effect for the open waters of Lake Michigan from 06Z tonight until 06Z Tuesday. There will be a couple of periods of gales to 35 knots during this time. The south half will see this later tonight with southeast to east gales, and again Monday afternoon and evening with north to northwest gales. The north half will see east to northeast gales later tonight into Monday. High waves are expected. There will be somewhat of a lull in winds Tuesday morning. Then gusty west to northwest winds are expected later Tuesday into Thursday morning. Gales are possible at times, especially for the central and southern part of the lake. Gusty winds and very cold temperatures will combine to bring heavy freezing spray through this week. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for the north half remains in effect into Thursday morning. Also added a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for the south half. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for WIZ046-047-051- 052-056>060-062>072. LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 3 AM CST Friday for LMZ080- 261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870- 872-874-876-878. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST Monday night for LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777- 779-868-870-872-874-876-878. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LMZ643>646. && $$ Update...MBK Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...MBK Monday Night through Sunday...Cronce  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KFSD 160857 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 257 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018 The uneventful and mild weather will continue across the region today. Weak shortwave is passing overhead early this morning but not producing anything more than some upper level clouds. Surface winds have and will continue to be more westerly/northwesterly thru the daytime hours although less breezy in nature than Saturday. Latest NOHRSC snow depth analysis along with yesterday's MODIS imagery show a shrinking snow pack across the region, although still remaining across far southern South Dakota into NW Iowa and SW Minnesota. Temperatures aloft at 925 mb have cooled a shade compared to yesterday but still expect fairly efficient warming for areas void of any snow cover. In general, expect mid to perhaps upper 40s for areas without snowcover and upper 30s to lower 40s for areas with. Overnight, surface high pressure along with added snow melt boundary layer moisture could allow for some patchy fog development with area river valleys the most likely area for this to occur. Lows in the mid teens to mid 20s look to be commonplace. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018 Still not a whole lot to discuss in the extended portions of the forecast. Upper level ridge axis will move overhead for Monday before being flattened by a weak shortwave Tuesday. By mid week, upper level trough and jet streak swing through the area allowing for a somewhat healthier disturbance to pass through Wednesday. Moisture profiles continue to look rather meager and thus have kept POPs fairly minimal at this point. If any precip does occur, it would be very light with operational and ensemble consensus only spotty amounts of a hundredth of an inch or two. Also continued the trend of nudging winds up Wednesday night and Thursday. This same system phases and deepens more efficiently well to our east into a closed low over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, upper level ridging builds back in to our west late week. Overall summary for the upcoming work week would be continued mostly dry and mild conditions. As snow pack continues to shrink, warming will become more equally distributed. Generally expect afternoon high temperatures to run from the mid 30s to mid/upper 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018 VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kalin LONG TERM...Kalin AVIATION...JH  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KABR 092045 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A strong upper level low pressure trough and its associated surface low pressure area to our south late this afternoon will be making their way northeast through the night and Wednesday. Intense deep layer lift with this system will result in rain overspreading the entire cwa through the evening. The issue will be with the temperature profiles along with the location of the dry slot surging north into the eastern part of the region tonight. As a result, the models vary on the change over to snowfall tonight into Wednesday. The GFS was the warmest with the NAM the coolest with the thermal profile through Wednesday. The EC and Canadian were in between these two models. Believe the cooler models and the change over to snow should occur by midnight west of the James Valley and to the east of the James Valley after midnight into Wednesday morning. The dry slot will lift into our far east and will affect snowfall amounts. Otherwise, there are good indications of a good deformation zone setting up northwest of the upper low along with some mid level frontogenesis combined with some negative epv. Therefore, there could be some banded snowfall with heavier amounts. The trowal feature will be also be wrapping around the upper low pressure area. Snowfall should be heavy enough during the nighttime to be able to accumulate decently on the grassy surfaces. Roads will also see slushy accumulations. At this time, 2 to 5 inches look good with lesser amounts in the far east and southeast in the Wheaton/Watertown areas. The winds will also be strong in the 20 to 35 mph range with blowing snow not expected to be an issue. Lowered highs on Wednesday with the expected caa and snowfall occurring. Expanded Winter Weather Advisory east from the James Valley to the Sisseton Hills earlier today. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Gusty winds and snow will continue into Wednesday evening across the northeastern half of the forecast area. While the main 500mb low exits our northeastern counties Wednesday night, the large trough remains in place across the Northern Plains through Friday morning. The sun looks to return Thursday, at least glimpses of it as high pressure moves in at the surface. Looking back at the MODIS imagery, this may be the first time of significant sunshine since September 28th. It will still be cool through, with temperatures topping out in the 30s and 40s. Even with the warmup later Friday and Saturday (40s and 50s), temperatures will remain well below normal. While a brief 500mb ridge slides overhead Friday, it will quickly be replaced by zonal flow on Saturday as the next 500mb low (and surface low) shifts across south central Canada. Gusty winds look to return for Friday night (not quick mixing to the 35kt wind around 900mb) and Saturday where 15-20kt winds should be common over the western half of the forecast area. Light snow may clip the ND/SD border Sunday morning. Reinforcing cold air will move in for Sunday, with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Complex weather scenario shaping up in this forecast period as an early season winter storm moves into the region. Anticipate cigs will remain IFR through the period at all TAF sites. A more steady type rain begins to move in late this afternoon and early evening. Colder air drawn in overnight will change the rain to snow at KMBG and provide for a mixture at KPIR and KABR. A more brief period of all snow could be possible at KPIR and KABR early Wednesday morning. Eventually the mix works into KATY Wednesday morning. Visibilities will mostly be IFR but in heavier precip, LIFR vsbys will be possible...especially at KMBG and KABR. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003>005-009-010- 015>017-033>037-045-048-051. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ006>008-011-018-021. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mohr LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Vipond  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 162045 AAA AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Marquette MI 445 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 421 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018 Updated for note on wildfire smoke that will move across the area on Fri. Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show zonal flow across much of Canada. In the weaker flow to the s, a well-defined shortwave is over nw IA/ne NE/se SD/sw MN. With daytime heating, sct shra/tsra associated with the wave have been increasing across IA/southern MN into sw WI. It appears a subtle wave ahead of the main feature has also been aiding some shra/tsra development farther ne in WI. Closer to home, quite a bit of cloud cover has helped slow build up of instability. That said, latest SPC mesoanalysis shows mlcapes have increased to 1000+j/kg from northern WI toward Marquette. Aforementioned well-defined shortwave is fcst to shift ese and weaken tonight/Fri. While it won't have any direct impact on the weather here, avbl instability and subtle wave in WI should support development of a few shra/possibly a tstm across the border into portions of central Upper MI over the next several hrs. Vis satellite imagery indicates CU are becoming more well-developed in the area bounded roughly by Ironwood/Marquette/Iron Mtn, which supports the idea that some shra may develop late aftn/early evening. Very weak mean wind under 10kt will lead to little movement of any shra that develop. Shra should end by midnight, though some models hint that pcpn could linger overnight. Light/calm wind, decrease in clouds overnight, and temps falling into 50s will likely lead to some radiation fog development over the interior w half. Fri looks like a quiet day. However, under a slightly more wnw mid- level flow, models do show a weak shortwave approaching in the aftn. There is some TCU developing ahead of the feature in southern Manitoba/adjacent northern Ontario, so not out of the question that there could be isold aftn shra. On the other hand, prevailing gradient northerly flow will essentially eliminate lake breeze convergence as a low-level forcing mechanism unless lake breeze off Lake MI can develop. So for now, left any mention of pcpn out of fcst. Expect highs ranging from around 70F along Lake Superior to well into the 80s inland. On another note, satellite imagery, especially MODIS/AQUA imagery, shows a very thick layer of wildfire smoke extending from ND ne into northern Ontario. Unfortunately, this band of smoke will likely move across the area on Fri. The smoke will be much thicker than anything experienced this summer. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 340 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018 Rather quiet start to the extended forecast, with a weak mid-lvl trough axis departing the Great Lakes region late Sat. Closer to the surface an elongated surface ridge will continue to provide dry condtiions to the area through Sat, but heading into the second half of the weekend with the surface ridge departing to the east. Some of the guidance is starting to slow the departing surface ridge until later Sun, which could further delay clouds returning and precip chances until Mon. A frontal boundary continues to be progged by guidance for approaching from the west/northwest early Mon, with a shortwave developing across the Central Plains early in the week. This shortwave is being progged to lift northeast towards Lower Michigan Tue/Wed with a wide precip shield accompanying this low pressure system. This should increase chances for showers/thunderstorms Tue/Wed of next week. Temperatures will steadily warm and become more humid over the second half of the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Mild overnight temps are also expected as cloud cover is not going to dissipate, keeping lows in the 60s for the bulk of the extended. With the system arriving Tue/Wed, this should provide cooler temps with rainfall with highs back into the upper 60s to lower 70s for many areas then warming yet again later in the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 155 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018 VFR conditions are likely to prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. Depending on how much clearing occurs tonight, could see fog develop. Winds will be light thru this fcst period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 421 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018 Winds across Lake Superior will be under 15kt thru Sun. However, high pres building over northern Ontario on Fri may lead to ne wind gusts of 15-20kt over western Lake Superior. A vigorous low pres system for Aug is expected to track ne into the Great Lakes region late Mon/Tue. This system will bring northerly winds of at least 15- 25kt with gusts to 30kt. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...Beachler AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...Rolfson  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 052203 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 303 PM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warming trend continues through the weekend into next week. Smoke near wildfires and hazy conditions at times elsewhere. && .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear skies prevail across interior northern California today under dry southwest flow aloft. A slow moving low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast continues to bring a weak Delta Breeze ("Delta Trickle") today...not nearly as strong as the last couple of days. MODIS and IR Satellite imagery suggests that the County Fire hasn't burned as intensely today as the last few days. As such, the density and coverage of smoke has diminished a bit. High pressure centered over the central US will begin to retrograde westward today, bringing warmer temperatures to the region. Look for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Valley, with 80s for the foothills and 60s to 70s over the mountains. These forecast highs are around to slightly cooler than normal for this time of year. High temperatures will be similar Friday compared to today, then warm up a few degrees over the weekend as high pressure continues to strengthen. We'll continue to see a Delta Breeze influence through the weekend, which will keep temperatures moderated. Look for highs in the 90s to 100 degrees across the Valley over the weekend. Dang && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday) Warm and dry conditions anticipated across interior NorCal as ridge of high pressure remains in control. High temperatures are expected to be above normal early next week, but not excessively hot with upper 90s to 100s across the Valley and mid 70s to 90s over the foothills/mountains. Temperatures will gradually cool down a few degrees closer to average by the end of the forecast period. Some moisture may advect northward late next week leading to thunderstorm activity over higher terrain. IDM / Dang && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local MVFR conditions possible due to wildfire smoke mainly along the Coastal Range and the northern Sacramento Valley. Local afternoon gusts to 20kts in the northern Sacramento Valley through this evening. Dang && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 051528 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 828 AM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warming trend begins today and continues into next week. Smoke near wildfires and hazy conditions at times elsewhere. && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies prevail across interior northern California this morning under dry southwest flow aloft. A slow moving low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast continues to bring a modest Delta Breeze today, albeit not as strong as the last couple of days. The marine layer moved inland as far as Grizzly Bay in the Delta this morning. MODIS and IR Satellite imagery suggests that the County Fire didn't burn as intensely last night as the last few. As such, the density and coverage of smoke has diminished a bit. High pressure centered over the central US will begin to retrograde westward today, bringing warmer temperatures to the region. Look for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Valley, with 80s for the foothills and 60s to 70s over the mountains. These forecast highs are around to slightly cooler than normal for this time of year. High temperatures will be similar Friday compared to today, then warm up a few degrees over the weekend as high pressure continues to strengthen. We'll continue to see a Delta Breeze influence through the weekend, which will keep temperatures moderated. Look for highs in the 90s to 100 degrees across the Valley over the weekend. Dang && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday) Warm and dry conditions anticipated across interior NorCal as ridge of high pressure remains in control. High temperatures are expected to be above normal early next week, but not excessively hot with upper 90s to 100s across the Valley and mid 70s to 90s over the foothills/mountains. Therefore, long outdoor exposures could increase chances for heat-related illness among sensitive groups on Monday. Temperatures will gradually cool down a few degrees closer to average by the end of the forecast period. Some moisture may advect northward late next week leading to thunderstorm activity over higher terrain. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local MVFR conditions possible due to wildfire smoke mainly along the Coastal Range and the northern Sacramento Valley. Local afternoon gusts to 20kts in the northern Sacramento Valley after 18z Thursday. Local southwest wind gusts to 20 kts vicinity Delta. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCAR 230141 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to dominate the region with clear skies and a warming trend into Tuesday. The chance for rain increases by Wednesday as a surface low tracks into the state from the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 935 PM Update: Fcst hrly temps and dwpts were updated into the late ngt hrs based on trends seen from mid eve obs with no additional chgs to fcst ovrngt lows this update. Fcst min aftn RHs on Mon were lowered based on obsvd min RHs across the Rgn this past aftn and the xpctn that similar values will be obsvd across the Rgn tomorrow aftn given WNW flow alf and WSW sfc winds, which should allow some mixing of dry air alf from at least 950 mb or so. This chg was made to facilitate a better fire wx fcst outlook. Orgnl Disc: Not much to talk about in the near term with high 1032mb surface high pressure building in across southern New England tomorrow. Warming trend will begin under sunny skies and light westerly winds. The day will start off the chilly side though with a dry airmass in place and strong radiational cooling. Temperatures will quickly rebound as the strong late April sun warms most areas into the 50s. Enjoy the day. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tuesday will be a 'banner day' across the CWA, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs surging into the 60s almost everywhere except the coast and higher elevations. Highs were bumped up for central and northern areas, based on 850mb temps of +1C to +3C and expectations of decent mixing. Temps for Bangor and the the coast looked good and weren't changed significantly. An increasing S'ly component to the winds Tue afternoon will likely cap Bangor's temps in the mid 60s - otherwise upper 60s would be possible. Some scattered clouds will move into central and northern areas by later Tue afternoon as the next system approaches. As the upper low associated with this next system dives SE across the eastern Great Lakes during the day Wed, overcast skies will move during the morning. Rain looks likely to reach southern and western edges of the CWA by midday, then spread north and east during the afternoon hours. Rain totals through Wed afternoon will likely be on the light side along the NB border and in the St. John Valley. But by 00z Thu, over a quarter inch is possible from Moosehead Lake down through coastal Downeast, with heavier rain possible into the long-term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An additional half inch or so of rain appears quite possible Between later Wed evening and Thu afternoon. The GFS currently has, by far, the deepest upper low and strongest surface low, and consequently shows some more vigorous precip around the surface low as it occludes over northern Maine. The most likely chance for heavier rain totals will be central and eastern areas, especially for Bangor and Downeast. How much rain falls for northwestern zones will depend partly on how strong the system is and how much moisture can wrap around the surface low Thu and Thu night. Some shallow shortwave upper ridging and a weak surface ridge will likely bring a break in precip for later Thu night into Fri, though clouds may not fully clear from the CWA. Another broad upper trough should bring some precip to the state over the weekend, but significant disagreement remains on the details of the timing of the upper trough and when any surface system will bring rain to the CWA. Thus, POPs were largely kept to chance, except for some low-end likely POPs for the Central Highlands and North Woods. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with high pressure firmly in control. No impacts to aviation operations expected through Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected through Tue night, though a mid-level deck may move in Tue night. Clouds will lower during the day Wed, with MVFR to IFR CIGs expected Wed afternoon into Thu eve, with locally MVFR vsby in areas of heavier rain. Conditions clear back to MVFR and then VFR on Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: High pressure will crest over the Gulf of Maine on Monday bringing light winds and small waves. No issues expected on the coastal waters. SHORT TERM: Moderate SW'ly winds Mon night and Tue AM will turn more S-SSW'ly and freshen a bit Tue afternoon and evening, but gusts should remain below 25kts. Winds will diminish a bit and turn S-SE'ly later Tue night into Wed. Seas will build up to 3-5 ft Tue eve and night, then drop again Wed AM. && .HYDROLOGY... Ice out continues on the rivers of Northern Maine today with a few minor ice jams on the Saint John, but no impacts due to flooding at this time. Overall the Aroostook is almost flushed of ice in most areas with limited threat of ice jams. MODIS satellite shot this morning showed large areas of open river even on the upper reaches of the Saint John and Allagash. Overall the ice jam threat remains limited. Flood concerns will quickly transition to open water flooding as spring is finally coming with snowmelt rates expected to rapidly increase this week with warm temperatures, rising dewpoints and rain by Wednesday. Could have some localized flood issues of small rivers and streams by Wednesday as the snow really starts to melt rapidly. Mainstem rivers will continue to rise through the week across the north and could start to approach action stage by the weekend. We will see how things unfold this week, but flood watches could still be possible. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...VJN/Kredensor Marine...VJN/Kredensor Hydrology...VJN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCAR 222004 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 404 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to dominate the region with clear skies and a warming trend into Tuesday. The chance for rain increases by Wednesday as a surface low tracks into the state from the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Not much to talk about in the near term with high 1032mb surface high pressure building in across southern New England tomorrow. Warming trend will begin under sunny skies and light westerly winds. The day will start off the chilly side though with a dry airmass in place and strong radiational cooling. Temperatures will quickly rebound as the strong late April sun warms most areas into the 50s. Enjoy the day. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tuesday will be a 'banner day' across the CWA, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs surging into the 60s almost everywhere except the coast and higher elevations. Highs were bumped up for central and northern areas, based on 850mb temps of +1C to +3C and expectations of decent mixing. Temps for Bangor and the the coast looked good and weren't changed significantly. An increasing S'ly component to the winds Tue afternoon will likely cap Bangor's temps in the mid 60s - otherwise upper 60s would be possible. Some scattered clouds will move into central and northern areas by later Tue afternoon as the next system approaches. As the upper low associated with this next system dives SE across the eastern Great Lakes during the day Wed, overcast skies will move during the morning. Rain looks likely to reach southern and western edges of the CWA by midday, then spread north and east during the afternoon hours. Rain totals through Wed afternoon will likely be on the light side along the NB border and in the St. John Valley. But by 00z Thu, over a quarter inch is possible from Moosehead Lake down through coastal Downeast, with heavier rain possible into the long-term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An additional half inch or so of rain appears quite possible Between later Wed evening and Thu afternoon. The GFS currently has, by far, the deepest upper low and strongest surface low, and consequently shows some more vigorous precip around the surface low as it occludes over northern Maine. The most likely chance for heavier rain totals will be central and eastern areas, especially for Bangor and Downeast. How much rain falls for northwestern zones will depend partly on how strong the system is and how much moisture can wrap around the surface low Thu and Thu night. Some shallow shortwave upper ridging and a weak surface ridge will likely bring a break in precip for later Thu night into Fri, though clouds may not fully clear from the CWA. Another broad upper trough should bring some precip to the state over the weekend, but significant disagreement remains on the details of the timing of the upper trough and when any surface system will bring rain to the CWA. Thus, POPs were largely kept to chance, except for some low-end likely POPs for the Central Highlands and North Woods. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with high pressure firmly in control. No impacts to aviation operations expected through Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected through Tue night, though a mid-level deck may move in Tue night. Clouds will lower during the day Wed, with MVFR to IFR CIGs expected Wed afternoon into Thu eve, with locally MVFR vsby in areas of heavier rain. Conditions clear back to MVFR and then VFR on Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: High pressure will crest over the Gulf of Maine on Monday bringing light winds and small waves. No issues expected on the coastal waters. SHORT TERM: Moderate SW'ly winds Mon night and Tue AM will turn more S-SSW'ly and freshen a bit Tue afternoon and evening, but gusts should remain below 25kts. Winds will diminish a bit and turn S-SE'ly later Tue night into Wed. Seas will build up to 3-5 ft Tue eve and night, then drop again Wed AM. && .HYDROLOGY... Ice out continues on the rivers of Northern Maine today with a few minor ice jams on the Saint John, but no impacts due to flooding at this time. Overall the Aroostook is almost flushed of ice in most areas with limited threat of ice jams, with Masardis still needing to flush out completely. MODIS satellite shot this morning showed large areas of open river even on the upper reaches of the Saint John and Allagash. Overall the ice jam threat remains limited. Flood concerns will quickly transition to open water flooding as spring is finally coming with snowmelt rates expected to rapidly increase this week with warm temperatures, rising dewpoints and rain by Wednesday. Could have some localized flood issues of small rivers and streams by Wednesday as the snow really starts to melt rapidly. Mainstem rivers will continue to rise through the week across the north and could start to approach action stage by the weekend. We will see how things unfold this week, but flood watches could still be possible. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Dumont Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Dumont/Kredensor Marine...Dumont/Kredensor Hydrology...Dumont  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 232158 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 158 PM PST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny skies will prevail around the Bay Area today. Another very cool night is forecast for Friday night. Dry weather and slightly warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend. Cooler, unsettled weather is expected to return by early next week with another system bringing rain to the area later next week. && .DISCUSSION...as of 01:58 PM PST Friday...Abundant sunshine blankets the Bay Area this afternoon and most of the state for that matter. Despite the afternoon sunshine temperatures are still running several degrees below normal. Max temps will likely top in the lower to mid 50s for most locations. The higher peaks in the region a much colder: Diablo low 30s, Mt Hamilton and Chews Ridge mid-upper 20s. Afternoon MODIS imagery still shows some lingering snow over the higher peaks in Monterey/San Benito Counties. For tonight, clear skies will continue leading to another cold night, especially away from the coast and major urban centers. Lows tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s across the interior and inland valleys. Closer to the coast and major urban centers will be mid 30s to lower 40s. Needless to say some frost will be possible. Dry weekend ahead as the Bay Area remains in a cold dry northwest flow. There is a slight uptick in 500 mb heights and 850 mb temps, especially on Sunday, leading to a slight warming trend. That being said, temperatures will still be below normal for this time of year, but interior locations may crack 60 degs by Sunday. Overnight lows will still be cold and frost will be possible again Saturday night. Want to at least mention that embedded in the long wave trough a weak short-wave trough slides through NE California on Saturday afternoon/evening. Moisture seems limited to NE of the Bay Area. Therefore, will not include any precip at this time. Latest model guidance continues to bring another re-enforcing upper trough late Sunday into Monday. Better dynamics and better moisture will allow for an increased chance of precip. Current forecast will bring showers into the North Bay early Monday and then spread southward through the day and even into early Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will generally be a few hundredths to a few tenths over the higher peaks. Snow levels will initially be 2,500 feet and above and then gradually drop through the day. Similar to the last few system minor snow accumulations will be possible with the Santa Lucias receiving the most. Brief break Tuesday into Wednesday with a short-wave ridge. If the long are right, and they have been showing this solution for several runs now, late next week could be interesting. Deterministic and ensembles means bring one of the more "robust" storm system into CA as of late. Lots of details will need to be sorted out between now and then, but timing looks to be right at the end of the month. Stay Tuned... && .AVIATION...as of 9:40 AM PST Friday...for 18Z TAFs. VFR conditions through the period with mainly clear skies. Winds west to northwest at 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail with mainly clear skies. West to northwest winds 10 to 20 kt before decreasing in the evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the period with mainly clear skies. Possibly FEW to SCT low clouds tonight into tomorrow morning. Onshore winds this afternoon. && .MARINE...as of 08:15 AM PST Friday...Gale-force northerly winds over the outer waters will subside later this morning. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to produce moderate to strong winds over the coastal waters into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 10 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM AVIATION: AS MARINE: AS Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 140930 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 330 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SHORT TERM... .Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Warm air advection is expected today across the area, which will bring milder temperatures into the area. Given the snowpack over the area, highs will be tempered somewhat, so went near short term model blended values in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There is the possibility of an area of thin low stratus clouds to move into southern and eastern portions of the area this evening, lingering later tonight. There also is fog potential as well, with the warmer air moving over the snowpack. There is uncertainty here with these occurring. There could be breaks in the thin low stratus clouds, and gusty boundary layer winds and limited low layer moisture may limit the extent of the fog. For now, brought in the thin low stratus to the southern and eastern portions of the area tonight. There should be some fog development mainly later tonight, especially in the far south and southwest, closest to where it should advect from. Lows tonight should not drop a whole lot, especially if any thin low stratus clouds lingers. .LONG TERM... Thursday - confidence medium Soundings show a saturated shallow layer at the surface into Thursday morning. There is a very dry air aloft and winds are elevated off the deck. So will have mention of patchy fog and low stratus. However, surface winds wind down during at this time, especially in the southwest so will have to watch if advection fog creates for more of a problem. Later Thursday winds become northwest bringing in some drier air mitigating fog potential later in the day. The upper jet strengthens over the region on Thursday within southwest flow aloft. Low pressure passes by to the south of the state and there is a small chance of light rain clipping the southeast. There is a small chance for some light snow showers Thursday night as a shortwave moves through. Little, if any accumulation. Friday through Wednesday- confidence high Northwest winds ramps up on Friday as high pressure sinks into the plains. An upper trough drops through bringing colder temps Friday and Saturday. The highs slides across the region Friday night and with clear skies lows will be in the single digits. A surface and upper trough moves through on Saturday with a warm air advection regime and a chance for light snow. The GFS and ECMWF are showing an active pattern for early next week. Temperatures bounce around the freezing mark depending on the time of day so there are chances for rain and snow. && .AVIATION(09Z TAFS)... Low level wind shear will continue into about the middle morning hours across the area, with southwest winds at 2000 feet above ground level around 40 knots. These winds will weaken as the morning goes on. Expect south southwest winds gusting up to 20 knots near Lake Michigan today, with lower gusts inland. Clear skies this morning should gradually give way to some thin low stratus clouds moving into southern and eastern portions of the area early this evening and into tonight. Some fog is expected as well, mainly later tonight. There is some uncertainty with how widespread any low ceilings will be, as well as how low visibility values will get. There may be some breaks in the thin low stratus as well. Could see ceilings around 1000 feet with visibility values down to 1 to 2 miles, mainly in the southern and eastern portions of the area. && .MARINE... Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory early, as winds are well below criteria across the area. South southwest winds are expected to gust to near 22 knots at times today into tonight, with higher winds toward 1000 feet above the surface and still below the inversion. However, think that this is a borderline situation for a Small Craft Advisory. MODIS imagery from Tuesday shows that most of the nearshore waters are covered in ice. Thus, any wave action will be limited, given the offshore flow. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for LMZ643-644. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood Thursday through Tuesday...Marquardt  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 151934 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 234 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will cross the region tonight and tomorrow, spreading light snow across the Eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain just below normal mid-week, with some limited lake effect snow to the southeast and east of the Great Lakes. Temperatures will begin to moderate to start next weekend, warming above normal by the end of next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... This afternoon an area of low pressure is nearing the Central Great Lakes, while arctic high pressure departs over southern Quebec. A southerly wind and warm air advection aloft has allowed for surface temperatures to moderate from the weekend cold with many places now into the lower 20s. For this late afternoon and evening light snow will spread across WNY. Isentropic upglide will be weak, and convergence will diminish around a weakening surface low...though with a nearing upper level shortwave there will be ample lift for light snow to develop. As such, and with an arctic source region to this system's moisture, snowfall rates will be minimal...generally on the order of just a few tenths of an inch per hour. Light snow is expected to spread east of Lake Ontario after midnight. The southerly winds may bring some downsloping effects, limiting overall snow across the Lake Plain and Genesee Valley, while some of the hills of SW NYS and the southern Tug Hill may have orographic upslope enhancement. Overall snow tonight and tomorrow will range from 1 to 4 inches. Greatest totals will be SW NYS, and the southern Tug Hill...while areas closer to the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and the Genesee Valley will struggle to accumulate more than an inch. Within the cold airmass snow is expected to be dry...and flake size may remain small. Tomorrow morning drying in the mid levels will end snow from west to east. As the weakening surface low hangs up over Central New York, light synoptic snow may linger well into the afternoon hours east of Lake Ontario. Aloft temperatures at 850 hpa will lower to around -12 to -14C. Some limited lake effect snow may develop on a southwest to westerly flow late tomorrow...though weak instability and still a fair amount of wind shear should not result in any significant bands. Temperatures will not lower much tonight, and may increase a tick or two as clouds thicken tonight. Lows will range through the teens to lower 20s. Coldest spots will be interior locations east of Lake Ontario where cirrus may remain thin enough this evening to allow for overnight lows in the upper single digits. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday evening the last of the synoptic snow will be exiting the eastern portion of the area as a weak baroclinic leaf develops over eastern PA and eastern NY, marking a weak wave along the frontal boundary. Otherwise our attention turns back to the mesoscale, as a relatively muted lake response begins. Lake induced equilibrium levels will start Tuesday evening only around 5K feet, but then improve to around 7K feet late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Off Lake Erie... Obviously ice cover will be a major limiting factor with the majority of the lake ice covered. Recent satellite images do show a substantial area of open water between Dunkirk and Long Point, and the ice west of that is not fast ice, with numerous leads and thin spots apparent in MODIS imagery from yesterday. With this in mind, there is still enough open water to provide some limited lake response, and frictional convergence is always present with or without ice. Expect the most concentrated area of snow showers to be found from Southern Erie and western Wyoming counties into the western Southern Tier Tuesday night and Wednesday, with peak organization coming late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. There may also be a few snow showers reaching the Buffalo Metro area at times, as a weak band will often form from just east of Long Point and hugs the northern shore into Buffalo when ice is present on the lake, which alters where convergence sets up. Accumulations will be limited to 1- 2 inches Tuesday night, and another inch or so Wednesday. A few flurries or light snow showers may linger into Wednesday night near Buffalo, with little or no additional accumulation. Off Lake Ontario... Weak flow will initially keep much of the lake effect snow over the lake Tuesday evening, although the eastern end may move onshore in Oswego County. Later Tuesday night WSW flow becomes better established across the lake, with lake effect snow showers increasing across southern Jefferson County and the Tug Hill. This band will settle south across Oswego County early Wednesday morning as boundary layer flow veers briefly to west, and then heads back north across the Tug Hill to Jefferson County again on Wednesday as flow backs to the southwest. The movement of the band and shallow inversion heights will keep accumulations in check, with 1 to 3 inches Tuesday night and another 2 to 3 inches Wednesday in persistent bands. This should keep amounts a little under advisory criteria. What remains of the lake effect will diminish to scattered snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday, although may not end completely with marginal lake induced instability remaining. Any additional accumulations should be minimal. Outside of lake effect areas, Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry for the rest of the region with variable amounts of clouds. Expect highs Wednesday to be in the low to mid 20s in most areas, with upper teens across the higher terrain. By Thursday highs will recover into the mid to upper 20s. Thursday night and Friday morning a fast moving and rather sharp mid level trough will pass over or just north of Lake Ontario. This system will bring an increase in clouds to much of the region, and also provide a little better environment for lake effect snow again east of Lake Ontario. This may produce some additional minor accumulations centered on the Tug Hill region. This system will move out quickly on Friday with any snow ending east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will continue their slow rise, with highs in the mid 30s by Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Zonal flow is expected through much of the weekend and southerly flow will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s and potentially 50s by Sunday. A deep trough is expected across the Rockies Sunday while ridging occurs across the east. A Colorado low is expected to form Sunday-Monday and track northeastward into the Great Lakes early next week. This will bring the chance of rain and snow showers. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An area of low pressure nearing the Central Great Lakes region this afternoon will spread a period of light snow across the TAF sites...mainly between 23Z tonight and 12Z tomorrow. Snow may linger through about 15Z east of Lake Ontario...including the KART airfield. Visibilities will diminish to IFR within the snow, with ceilings lowering to MVFR. Winds will remain generally light within the snow, with southeast flow this afternoon veering to southwesterly by TAF closure behind the storm system. Outlook... Monday night...Light snow with areas of IFR. Tuesday through Friday...A chance of snow showers with spotty MVFR to IFR, especially east of the lakes with local lake effect snow. Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Southeast winds today will veer to southwest and eventually westerly tomorrow as a weakening area of low pressure cross the Eastern Great Lakes region. Cooler air will build across the lakes mid-week...such that CAA and westerly flow will bring waves over 4 feet Wednesday...with small craft advisories becoming likely. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...THOMAS NEAR TERM...THOMAS SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...THOMAS MARINE...THOMAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOUN 132052 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 252 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 .DISCUSSION... Impactful weather over the next several days is centered around fire weather. Although, the weather/fuel environment does not currently seem to support significant fire weather concern (see details in fire weather section below). Otherwise, temperatures will be normal to occasionally above normal for mid-December. One low-medium probability precipitation opportunity will occur for mainly eastern portions of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Changes to the previous forecast were minimal. Within northwesterly flow across the middle part of the country, a weak shortwave is passing through. A band of cirrus across northern Oklahoma early this afternoon is coincident with weak ascent associated with this shortwave. This wave has sent a cold front into the area today resulting in an increase in gusty northerly winds as it passes. There have been a few reports from northwest Oklahoma of some smoke and this doesn't appear to be due to any local wildfire activity, rather MODIS satellite suggests it is probably from the Legion Lake fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota. A more intense shortwave trough will move through tomorrow forcing a more significant cold surge into the area early in the day. High temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees colder. Latest model runs show a persistent trough in the east and diminishing Rex Block pattern with slowly deamplifying ridge in the west through the end of the week. This will support a continuation of dry northwesterly flow aloft across our region. Notable changes on the synoptic scale occur by Saturday. A closed low, now over northern Baja California, will open up and eject northeastward in response to deepening longwave trough in the west. Despite PWAT values being significantly below normal now across Texas into the western Gulf, modest moisture return will occur quickly in response to this lead shortwave and should be enough for some showers across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the area Saturday night through early Sunday. Instability will be very weak at best, possibly supporting a few weak thunderstorms as well. Eastward progression of this longwave is where uncertainties arise. Deterministic guidance is as much as 24 hours out of phase. Generally, ECMWF and its ensemble mean are much quicker than the GFS and most of its ensembles. If the GFS/GEFS is right, this could offer another low probability precipitation event for the eastern portions of the area sometime around Monday, but we have kept the forecast dry for now given significant uncertainty. BRB && .FIRE WEATHER... Some fire activity will remain possible through this afternoon. Latest Oklahoma mesonet observations show relative humidity values around or below 20 percent for most of the area, and around 10-15 mph northerly winds behind the southward moving cold front. This is resulting in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. As mentioned above, a smoke smell may occur behind the cold front moving through the state now. This smoke seems to be originating from the Legion Lake fire in the Black Hills. Latest shortwave band satellite imagery reveals one hotspot and probable fire in western Love County. Local media reports and KTLX radar indicate a minor fire in south OKC. No other ongoing activity is known at this time, but additional initial attack activity is certainly possible through the afternoon. Cooler temperatures and comparatively higher relative humidity should limit fire concerns tomorrow, and although humidity will be lower Friday, winds should remain fairly light. The next fire weather day is expected to be Saturday when gusty southerly winds begin before a surge of low level moisture arrives. Elevated fire weather conditions may result. Latest ERC-G values in western Oklahoma where near or slightly above the 90th percentile which would tend to enhance fire activity even if only marginal meteorological conditions are realized. BRB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 35 47 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 33 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 68 34 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 64 29 49 23 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 63 32 47 28 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 69 36 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 26/12  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPIH 090907 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 207 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Blocking upper high continues to be the dominant feature for the short-term period. Surface weather will be most influenced by the surface inversion. Fog and stratus will continue to be the norm under these conditions. MODIS nighttime microphysics imagery very similar to 24 hours ago with fog/stratus trapped in the Snake Plain and adjacent valleys. Freezing fog is present at a couple observation sites, but road conditions have not responded as yet. Thus holding off on any headline issuance for freezing fog. Main strategy for temps/RH was to incorporate some persistence and carry it through Tuesday. Hinsberger .LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Friday. High pressure ridge will continue to support inversion conditions through next Thursday night. Models are then showing support and agreement on finally breaking down the ridge and letting disturbances come in off the Pacific, the first being Friday afternoon or night. Until then, will continue to favor colder temperatures in the Snake Plain and some valley areas, with potential for some fog and low stratus. RS && .AVIATION...Inversions continue to be problematic with low stratus and areas of fog. KBYI is still on the edge of the stratus and has the best potential for clouds scattering out in the afternoon. The other location where skies may well remain VFR is KDIJ. Confidence in low stratus at KDIJ in the early morning hours is marginal. The NAM12 model continues to support the development of easterly winds at the surface and in the boundary layer tonight and Sunday morning. The inversion has been pretty strong, but this could transport some of the status towards the west side of the state. RS && AIR STAGNATION...Inversions continue to hold and reduce air quality, particularly for Franklin County where and Air Stagnation Advisory remains in effect. Saturday night and Sunday morning, looking for development of more persistent easterly winds at the surface and near the top of the low level stratus in the Snake Plain. Both the NAM and GFS models have supported this idea the past two days. It probably will not get rid of the inversion completely, but it can transport some of the low stratus out of the Snake Plain and towards the west side of the state. RS && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRB 180810 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Warm and quiet weather for the rest of the work week, though it will be quite windy at times. Turning cooler by early next week. A very energetic band of low-amplitude westerlies was across Canada and the far northern CONUS. The pattern will undergo some amplification during the remainder of the work week, with a trough forming near the West Coast and increased ridging over the Great Lakes region. Additional changes will quickly follows as a much stronger trough develops out near 160W. That will flip the downstream pattern to one with a ridge near the West Coast and troughing over the Great Lakes region by early next week. Temperatures 10 to 20 F degrees above normal are expected into the upcoming weekend, then readings will drop back much closer to seasonal normals by early next week. The best chance for rain will be with a frontal system crossing the area this weekend, but that system seems unlikely to bring substantial rains, so amounts are likely to end up below normal for the period. && .SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Quiet weather is expected throughout the period as a series of strong cyclones track east across Canada. It will be windy at times. The main forecast issue is temperatures. Guidance was too cool yesterday and looks too cool the next couple days as well. Went with maxes for today that were a couple degrees above yesterdays observed values at most locations. Thursday won't be quite as warm as a cool front trailing from one of the Canadian cyclones will cross the area tonight. But highs are still expected to be above normal. The forecast pressure gradient and some CAA suggest it's less likely low-levels will decouple completely tonight. So shaved a couple degrees off mins in the typical cool spots, but don't expect the drop we've seen at some locations this morning. .LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Unseasonably warm weather will continue on Friday and into Saturday (not as warm due to cloud cover/chances of rain). Highs on Friday will be around 20 degrees above normal away from the bay and lake, but just shy of the record high for the date at this point. Have raised high temperatures on Friday per coordination with surrounding offices. Still some timing differences among the models with arrival of the rain and when the cold front will pass through the area over the weekend. Latest GFS/WRF model depict precipitation breaking out with the southerly flow on Saturday, with main precipitation with the cold front Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Yesterday, the ECMWF was the slowest model with the passage of the cold front. The 00z run tonight has sped up this system. Best available of capes were between 200 and 400 J/kg. Will continue the small chances of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Mid level lapse rates were pretty steep. The cold front will move away from the area Sunday afternoon, bringing drier conditions to the region. Next system approaches from the northwest late Sunday night, bringing another chance of showers Monday into Monday night. A significant change in the weather pattern is expected by the end of next week. Northwest flow will become established across the area, bringing an end to the unusually mild October weather. In reality, temperatures will return closer to normal next week, which will be a shock due to the expected warm weather this week. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Gusty surface winds today will probably be the most significant aviation weather issue during the next 24 hours. Still expect mainly just cirrus for clouds, though model RH progs have some moisture around 850 mb so it's possible some lower clouds could form. Still expect bases to be VFR though. The ongoing LLWS will ease this morning as mixing deepens and surface winds increase and become gusty. LLWS will redevelop late this afternoon in the east as the boundary layer decouples. But weakening wind aloft and CAA should result in LLWS easing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Opted to keep the SC.Y rather than upgrade to a GL.W. Some gale force gusts are still likely, but it does not look as though they will be widespread/persistent enough to warrant a Gale Warning. MODIS satellite imagery indicated water temperatures over the NSH waters were in the middle to upper 50s, so low-levels will be stable as the strongest winds move through aloft. Persistent strong southwest winds are likely to result in high waves on Lake Michigan Friday into Sunday morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....Skowronski LONG TERM......Eckberg AVIATION.......Skowronski MARINE.........Skowronski/Eckberg  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 260832 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 332 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .DISCUSSION... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. Initial surge of moisture advection producing scattered showers across western CWA early this morning. Expect this initial surge to weaken early this morning as it encounters drier air farther east. However reinforcing push of moisture advection ahead of approaching cold front should trigger more scattered showers and a few t-storms later this morning and afternoon across southern WI. Prefer GFS solution with location of frontal boundary at 12Z, however all short term guidance carry weak low pressure over the tri-state area northeast across northern WI this morning and into southern Canada by this evening. This track will carry a cold front across southern WI today, exiting the far southeast early this evening. Deep moisture in place along with the passing front and enhanced synoptic lift from southern extent of mid-level short wave should generate at least scattered showers and a few t-storms across CWA today. Showers may remain more scattered or isolated over far southeast WI which will be farther away from synoptic forcing. Milwaukee record high is 88 today and starting out the day in the upper 60s or low 70s. However increasing mid-high level clouds should keep high temps just below reaching record levels. Showers will diminish from west to east during the afternoon and early evening. Increasing low level cold air advection will likely pull in a period of low clouds from MN/IA for a time tonight as temperatures dip into the upper 40s and 50s. Wednesday - Confidence...High A much cooler airmass will be in place. The cooler air brought in by northwest winds. High pressure will be ridging into the area. in the wake of the frontal boundary. Thursday - Confidence...Medium to High A brief thermal ridge works in ahead of another front that will be dropping south into northern WI associated with low pressure moving east of Lake Superior. 925 temps bounce back to the mid teens celsius with more of a westerly flow ahead of the front. Showers associated with this feature are expected to remain in northern WI. The cold front drops in Thursday evening. Models are not doing much with this feature its passage thus pops are mostly on the dry side. Friday through Sunday - Confidence...Medium to High High pressure regains control and the influence of this feature dominates through the weekend. The high will shift off to the east into the eastern Lakes for Saturday and the NE US for Sunday. A return flow sets up for Sunday but at this time the progs suggest all precip will remain to our west in the Plains in association with a low pressure trough there. The coldest 925 temps are expected Friday night into Saturday morning with a gradual rebound for the balance of the weekend. Monday - Confidence...Low The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GEM show a quicker advance of the Plains trough into the Upper Midwest with a more progressive mid level pattern. The GFS keeps Monday dry with a slower more amplified 500 millibar trough. Looks like we should see a bump in the 925 temps deeper into the teens celsius. && .AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...A few showers may brush the Madison area early this morning. Otherwise, expect scattered showers and isolated t-storms to develop later this morning and afternoon across southern WI as a cold front sweeps through southern WI. Ceilings may drop to MVFR due to passing showers. Increasing northwest winds behind front may pull in a period of low stratus across the area tonight. && .MARINE...Light southwest winds will back to mostly a south direction this morning and waver between south and southeast for the afternoon due to inland heating. Wind gusts may reach 15 knots. Recent MODIS imagery shows lake temperatures have rebounded back into the upper 60s to around 70 well offshore while pockets of cooler lake surface temps were located from offshore of Sheboygan county south to Wind Point. A cold front is expected to pass across the nearshore waters late this afternoon and evening turning winds to the WNW. A tightening pressure gradient and the surge of cooler air will result in increasing winds overnight, with gusts approaching Small Craft Advisory levels into early Wednesday. For now, looks like most gusts will remain below 22 knots so wl hold off on issuing Small Craft Advisory, but mariners should be prepared for gusty offshore winds developing tonight. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Wednesday through Monday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 210840 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High. Cirrus shield from IA/IL convection over southern WI preventing fog from becoming more widespread and dense. GOES-16 night time microphysics enhancement showing slight warming and thinning of the cirrus shield in northenr IA, which makes sense as convection wanes as Mesoscale convective vortex in vicinity of KDVN continues moving southeast. Removed pops from early this morning in the southwest. Due to cirrus shield thinning, will continue to mention patchy fog due to light winds and high low level humidity. Quasi-station boundary draped across southern IA and central IL will begin moving northward today in response to upstream short wave trof over eastern MT moving eastward through the northern Plains. Deep moisture with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches is tied to the warm front. Increasing warm air and moisture advection into southwest and central WI wl likely trigger scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Influx of low 70 dewpoints will aid in MUCape values increasing to 2-4000 j while bulk shear increases to 20- 40kts. Thinking a few severe storms may affect northwest CWA this afternoon. Can not rule out an isolated tornado with approaching boundary and low level shear increasing to 20 kts. SPC Storm scale Ensemble of Opportunity shows higher updraft helicity and speeds remaining just west of the area. Strengthening low level jet will result in rapid convection initiation upsteam over southeast MN/western WI during the evening. This will transition to wind and hail event which will likely track along the warm front which by that time should be draped across southern Wisconsin. Low level jet pivots east and south carrying strong convection across southern WI overnight. Axis of heavy rainfall has shifted slightly northward more into southern WI so wl expand Flash Flood Watch farther northeast to include Marquette, Dodge, Waukesha and Milwaukee counties. Many areas could receive overnight rainfall exceeding 2 inches. 3 hour flash flood guidance in this area is less than 2 inches. Also these areas received heavy rain in the recent past so antecendent conditions remain moist. For more discussion on tonight's rainfall, check out below hydrology section. .LONG TERM... Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium. We will lose our stronger forcing Saturday morning, but the front may take a few more hours to sag south of the WI/IL border after the main round of storms exits. It's a small chance but there could still be a few showers and weak storms that fire up along any lingering outflow boundaries or the front through the afternoon into the early evening. The rest of Saturday night will be dry as a deeper layer of dry air tracks over the area. A more amplified and robust upper trough is expected to roll across Lake Superior on Sunday. The ECMWF is fastest with this feature. The associated surface low should move across northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with this Sunday afternoon and early evening, but moisture and instability are still questionable. Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium. High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first part of next week. Cyclonic flow may push some low clouds into southeast WI Monday morning along a secondary cold front. Thus highs are only expected in the lower 70s. Another upper low will roll through Ontario Tue night into Wednesday and extend a surface frontal boundary into central WI. This stalled boundary will be the focus for our next chance for storms Wed through Fri morning as it wavers over the area. && .AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Cirrus shield from IA/IL convection over southern Wisconsin preventing fog from becoming more widespread and dense. GOES-16 nighttime microphysics enhancement showing slight warming and thinning of the cirrus shield in northern IA. Expect thinning to continue through the early morning as convection to the south wanes. Hence light fog wl continue to affect southern WI through the early morning with the fog becoming localized dense, especially in the northern CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will develop over south central WI this afternoon and transition to heavy rain/wind event overnight. && .MARINE... Light winds will allow patchy fog to develop closer to the shore early this morning. The fog should be shallower and quickly dissipate. Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan sea surface temp has warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s as recent winds have remained light resulting in little upwelling. Mariners main concern will be a period of thunderstorms tonight. These thunderstorms may produce damaging downburst winds and large hail. Most favored time is 03Z-10Z. && .HYDROLOGY... Will continue Flash Flood Watch across southern WI and expand into a few counties farther east including Marquette, Dodge, Waukesha and Milwaukee. 3 hour Flash Flood Guidance is less than 2 inches in these areas. Precipitable water will increase to around 2 inches this afternoon and tonight, which is well above the normal for mid- July. These values are causing the North American Ensemble Forecast System standardized anomolies to close in on 3 units tonight. Return Interval for these elevated PW is getting into the one day every 1-2 year. With strength of low level jet and passing right entrance region of upper level jet, significant flooding event could occur tonight somewhere in southern Wisconsin. Fortunately, Corfidi vectors remain progressive most of the night, but hint at possible back-building late, most likely after MCS has passed off to the east. Biggest hydrology concern is for those areas in northwest CWA which received heavy rainfall Wednesday night/Thursday morning including Sauk, Iowa and Dane counties. Rock Springs on Baraboo River already forecast to get close to Major flood. Will be watching hydrographs closely in next 24 hours. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072. LM...None. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Saturday through Thursday...Cronce  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 191435 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 935 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .UPDATE... An elongated stretch of low clouds exists from the Milwaukee Metro area west towards Madison...and is about 30-50 miles wide from north to south. As drier air works slowly into the region and the day heats up with better mixing the low clouds will fade away through the late morning and afternoon. Current dewpts are high with most around 70...slightly drier but muggy in the upper 60s north of the clouds. Rest of forecast looks to be in solid shape with no other tweaks needed at this time. && .MARINE... Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan surface temps in the 60s to around 70. Light winds continuing with some low clouds and areas of fog along the nearshore. As drier air moves southward later this morning and afternoon, the threat of low clouds and fog will diminish. Dry conditions are expected most of today into this evening as winds becoming north to northeast. A few wind gusts to 15-18 knots will be possible later this morning. A period of thunderstorms may sweep across the near shore waters after midnight tonight, possibly producing strong wind gusts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 659 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017) AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Patchy low clouds and stratus will continue to affect southern WI this morning as surface wind shift and front sag south through far southern WI. Expect the stratus to eventually thin and become more few-sct later this morning and aftn. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017) SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. The overnight showers and storms have diminished and pushed off to the east and south. However weak frontal boundary remains over southern WI along with some weak MUCape. Hence can not rule out an isolated shower or storm redeveloping next several hours, mainly across southern CWA. In addition, patchy fog may become briefly dense due to the light winds and high low level moisture through the early morning. The fog threat will diminish by mid-morning as winds pickup from the north to northeast and slightly drier air moves in from the north. A mostly dry day lies ahead for the area with some reprieve from the humid conditions in the northern CWA. Humid conditions wl linger across the southwest. Sunshine should help temperatures recover into the 80s most area, but onshore flow wl keep lakeshore temps a bit cooler in the mid 70s to around 80. Stalled frontal boundary to the south of WI this afternoon will begin moving back to the north tonight in response to strong synoptic scale forcing moving across the upper midwest. Right entrance region of upper jet passes across the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes tonight, resulting in a period of strong upper level divergence moving across portions of MN into WI and IA tngt. All short term guidance in good agreement on vigorous low level jet developing across southern MN this evening and then spreading east or southeast overnight. ECMWF and GEM spread strong low level convergence mainly eastward into central and northern WI, while GFS and NAM farther south. Strong WNW winds at 700H and 500H would typically carry the developing MCS southeast along the strengthening quasi-stationary boundary that will extend from southern MN across eastern IA into the vicinity of southern WI/northern IL. Hence leaning more on southern solutions and wl continue likely wording for thunder in the 06Z-12Z period. Not impossible a bow echo/high wind event may occur and affect the area. SPC higher risk category may spread farther east into southern WI later today. Expect tonights convection to move at a higher rate of speed southeast, and not expecting storms to repeatedly affect an area resulting in flooding rains. However, some areas may still receive an inch of rainfall overnight with high rainfall rates resulting in ponding of water and minor street flooding. LONG TERM... Thursday... Forecast confidence is Medium. Showers and storms will taper off across southern WI Thu morning. It will take several hours for the atmosphere to recover, and we will likely lack forcing for additional showers or storms the rest of the day since the front/outflow will presumably be down in IL. Still, I kept the slight chance in the fcst in case any weak boundaries can trigger a shower or storm. We will still be in a warm and humid air mass, so expect highs to reach the mid 80s but is dependent upon cloud cover. The front will begin to lift back northward Thu night, so there are increasing chances for storms after midnight. Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium. Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient during this time and we will continue to monitor this period for a flash flood potential. Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by. Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium. A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with this, but moisture and instability are still questionable. High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a warm front Tuesday night. HYDROLOGY... The round of thunderstorms tonight is expected to be progressive with up to an inch of rain. Thus, this period does not look like a flash flood threat or one that would exacerbate river flooding. The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to bring the risk for heavy rainfall. This would aggravate ongoing flooding across far southeast Wisconsin, and create flooding issues elsewhere, especially in urban areas. Once more confidence is gained with timing of these rounds of storms, expected rainfall amounts will become more clear. Keep up with the latest forecasts into this weekend. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update...ABS Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...ABS Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...ABS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 190848 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. The overnight showers and storms have diminished and pushed off to the east and south. However weak frontal boundary remains over southern WI along with some weak MUCape. Hence can not rule out an isolated shower or storm redeveloping next several hours, mainly across southern CWA. In addition, patchy fog may become briefly dense due to the light winds and high low level moisture through the early morning. The fog threat will diminish by mid-morning as winds pickup from the north to northeast and slightly drier air moves in from the north. A mostly dry day lies ahead for the area with some reprieve from the humid conditions in the northern CWA. Humid conditions wl linger across the southwest. Sunshine should help temperatures recover into the 80s most area, but onshore flow wl keep lakeshore temps a bit cooler in the mid 70s to around 80. Stalled frontal boundary to the south of WI this afternoon will begin moving back to the north tonight in response to strong synoptic scale forcing moving across the upper midwest. Right entrance region of upper jet passes across the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes tonight, resulting in a period of strong upper level divergence moving across portions of MN into WI and IA tngt. All short term guidance in good agreement on vigorous low level jet developing across southern MN this evening and then spreading east or southeast overnight. ECMWF and GEM spread strong low level convergence mainly eastward into central and northern WI, while GFS and NAM farther south. Strong WNW winds at 700H and 500H would typically carry the developing MCS southeast along the strengthening quasi-stationary boundary that will extend from southern MN across eastern IA into the vicinity of southern WI/northern IL. Hence leaning more on southern solutions and wl continue likely wording for thunder in the 06Z-12Z period. Not impossible a bow echo/high wind event may occur and affect the area. SPC higher risk category may spread farther east into southern WI later today. Expect tonights convection to move at a higher rate of speed southeast, and not expecting storms to repeatedly affect an area resulting in flooding rains. However, some areas may still receive an inch of rainfall overnight with high rainfall rates resulting in ponding of water and minor street flooding. .LONG TERM... Thursday... Forecast confidence is Medium. Showers and storms will taper off across southern WI Thu morning. It will take several hours for the atmosphere to recover, and we will likely lack forcing for additional showers or storms the rest of the day since the front/outflow will presumably be down in IL. Still, I kept the slight chance in the fcst in case any weak boundaries can trigger a shower or storm. We will still be in a warm and humid air mass, so expect highs to reach the mid 80s but is dependent upon cloud cover. The front will begin to lift back northward Thu night, so there are increasing chances for storms after midnight. Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium. Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient during this time and we will continue to monitor this period for a flash flood potential. Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by. Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium. A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with this, but moisture and instability are still questionable. High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a warm front Tuesday night. && .AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Light winds high low level moisture are allowing patchy fog and low clouds to develop across the area. Would expect this trend to continue for a few more hours until mid-morning or so as winds become more northeasterly and increase. Hence patchy IFR cigs and vsbys may affect TAF sites for a few hours. Otherwise, a VFR day lies ahead. Still looking like a period of thunderstorms will affect parts of southern WI after midnight tonight. Strong winds may accompany the storms. && .MARINE... Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan surface temps in the 60s to around 70. Light winds for a time this morning along with high surface moisture may result in areas of fog developing. As drier air moves southward later this morning and afternoon, the threat of fog will diminish. Dry conditions are expected most of today into this evening as winds becoming north to northeast. A few wind gusts to 15-18 knots will be possible later this morning. A period of thunderstorms may sweep across the near shore waters after midnight tonight, possibly producing strong wind gusts. && .HYDROLOGY... The round of thunderstorms tonight is expected to be progressive with up to an inch of rain. Thus, this period does not look like a flash flood threat or one that would exacerbate river flooding. The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to bring the risk for heavy rainfall. This would aggravate ongoing flooding across far southeast Wisconsin, and create flooding issues elsewhere, especially in urban areas. Once more confidence is gained with timing of these rounds of storms, expected rainfall amounts will become more clear. Keep up with the latest forecasts into this weekend. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Thursday through Tuesday...Cronce  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 150219 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 919 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .UPDATE... Stratocumulus continues to erode due to building subsidence. Temperatures will fall to/or below crossover temperature overnight. With boundary layer winds less than 10 knots, and mostly clear skies, expanded patchy fog farther east and lowered overnight lows 1-3 degrees most areas. && .AVIATION (03Z TAFS)... Stratocumulus continues to thin and dissipate across southern Wisconsin. Should be clear by 03-04Z across the area. With boundary layer winds less than 10 knots, and little drop in dewpoints, wl continue to mention late night fog. && .MARINE... Light winds to persist through tonight, becoming offshore. Recent MODIS sea surface temperature imagery suggested some cooler waters have risen to the surface due to upwelling. Water temperatures have lowered into the 50s in some pockets of the near shore waters. With light winds and area dewpoints about 5 to 10 degrees warmer, added patchy fog mention to northern zones for late tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017) UPDATE...Widespread evening clearing may take several hours longer than originally anticipated. Latest GOES-16 images showing cu and stratocumulus thinning and dissipating over eastern areas but still a large area of bkn-ovc sc north over south central WI. Still expect clearing to take place in building subsidence overnight with some patchy late night fog. AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...BKN-OVC stratocumulus should continue to thin and dissipate through the evening as subsidence builds into the area. Late night fog may reduce visibilities to 2 to 4 miles, possibly lower in more susceptible areas. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 336 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017) SHORT TERM... Tonight and Saturday...Forecast Confidence is High. These low clouds are finally breaking up and will gradually clear later this evening as we lose daytime heating and some drier air aloft reaches us. Radiational cooling and dewpoints sticking around the upper 50s should allow for some patchy fog to develop tonight as the surface high tracks over southern WI. The better chance for fog is over south central WI. I can't rule out early morning lakeshore fog because dewpoints are right around the water temperature, but not enough confidence to put in the forecast at this time. We should be mostly sunny during the day Saturday. Warm air being pumped into western WI out ahead of the approaching cold front on southwesterly winds will help us to reach lower 80s for highs. Saturday night and Sunday...Forecast Confidence...Medium A broad upper trough forms over the Great Lakes with another modest speed max pushing into southern Wisconsin late Saturday night. Upper divergence increases with moderate 700 mb upward motion Saturday evening. The 850 mb thermal ridge is across southern Wisconsin during the evening, then dropping south into illinois late. 850 mb dewpoints rise to 14 Celsius. 850 mb winds are west northwest early evening, then northwest late, becoming north later Sunday. The cold front moves across the forecast area Saturday night, exiting the far south just after sunrise. The cap weakens early evening, as zero to 1 km mixed layer CAPE rises to almost 2000 Joules/kg. Showers/thunderstorms are expected with the cold front. GFS forecast soundings are showing a bit more severe potential with surface to 1 km shear around 22 knots. Mid, then low level drying behind the front Sunday. A northeast flow will cool areas, especially near Lake Michigan. LONG TERM... Monday through Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium An upper ridge extends into Wisconsin Monday before the upper flow becomes more zonal Tuesday and Tuesday night. The zonal flow continues through Wednesday and Thursday and a bit more northwest Friday, as a broad trough forms near and then just east of the Hudson Bay area. Surface high pressure will be over the great Lakes Monday. A warmer return flow sets up for Tuesday. As the upper flow becomes more zonal, the chance of thunderstorms will return from Tuesday evening into Friday with several periods of thunderstorms. the best chances are Wednesday into Thursday with a heavy rain potential. AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... Clouds with bases 2000 to 3000 ft range are gradually rising to greater than 3000 ft and breaking up a little. Light west winds and mostly clear skies are then expected tonight with high pressure over the area. Radiational cooling could cause patchy fog to develop, more likely in south central WI. Mostly sunny skies Saturday. Then a cold front will track southeast through WI and could kick up some storms Saturday evening. MARINE... Light winds and waves tonight with high pressure spreading into the area. Can't rule out early morning lakeshore fog because dewpoints are right around the water temperature, but not enough confidence to put in the forecast at this time. Increasing southwest winds will move any lake fog offshore by late morning. Gusty north to northeast winds are then expected for Sunday into Sunday evening. Some gusts to 22 knots are possible at times. Waves may build to 3 to 5 feet during this time. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Sunday into Sunday night. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation/Marine...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 040209 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 909 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 .UPDATE... .AVIATION (03Z TAFS) VFR condition expected, except for IFR early morning fog mainly in the Wisconsin River valley. High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Lake surface temperatures via the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any redevelopment of fog. Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Area of showers and thunderstorms over east central Iowa into northern Illinois will remain in that area into this evening. Area of fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should remain clear into this evening. Diurnal cumulus clouds will gradually dissipate early this evening. There may be a few middle to high clouds overnight, but most of the night should be clear. Light winds should allow for a relatively cool night, with lows in the middle 50s in most areas. It should be a little warmer near the lakeshore. High pressure will continue to slowly slide east of Lake Superior into Tuesday. The high will bring dry easterly flow and bring a pleasant day. Mild temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected inland, with onshore winds keeping lower to middle 70s near Lake Michigan. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Shortwave energy will carve out a closed mid-level cyclone over the lower Missouri valley on Tuesday. Models then project the closed circulation to lift northeast on Wednesday, as moisture from this system combines with that of a northern stream wave approaching the western Great Lakes. Thereafter, look for the low to devolve to an open-wave trough as it swings east into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be in control Tuesday evening, with dry southeasterly flow preventing much intrusion of low-level moisture into southern Wisconsin. This should keep us high and dry for the evening's fireworks displays, with pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover will be increasing however, especially from around Madison west. The surface high shifts east on Wednesday, allowing deeper moisture to spread into western portions of our area. Column integrated precipitable water values climb to around 1.6 inches by afternoon, with dewpoints nearing 70 degrees west of Madison. Several model solutions keep a west to east oriented dewpoint/low-level moisture gradient in place through the afternoon and evening, suggesting we may still be battling the high's residual influence. The best focused moisture transport remains to our northwest (closer to the mid-level wave) and south (near the deep layer low), but we do see some slight increase by late afternoon, as warm cloud depths thicken to around 3.5 km. Aforementioned moisture combined with diabatic heating should lead to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model forecast soundings suggest anywhere from 500 to 1200 J/kg of MLCAPE is possible in our west, but our instability will ultimately hinge on a) the amount of heating we receive, and b) the speed and quality of our boundary layer moisture recovery. Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer appears somewhat meager, with magnitudes on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 thunderstorm outlook places our western areas in a marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this seems prudent, with a few storms possibly producing gusty winds and/or hail. Another shortwave drops down from the northwest on Thursday afternoon and evening. The 03.12z deterministic GFS solution is both stronger and deeper with the wave as compared to the 03.12z Canadian and 03.00z ECMWF solutions. Both the GFS and Canadian solutions bring shower/thunderstorm chances into southern Wisconsin from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, while the ECMWF keeps us dry. Will defer to the consensus PoPs during this time given the uncertainty. Temperatures during this period will be seasonal, with cooler readings in the east due to periods of onshore flow. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Most of the global models build high pressure into our area from the northwest on Friday, with the 03.00z ECMWF being the lone outlier. Its solution would keep the shower/thunderstorm chances going into early Friday afternoon. For now, will stick with the dry consensus. High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures should prevail for the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possibly returning for Sunday night and/or Monday. AVIATION(21Z TAFS)... Any shower/storm activity will remain south of the Illinois border into this evening. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening. Light northeast to east winds are expected into tonight. The fog over the lake east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and should remain fog free into this evening. High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday. MARINE... Fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should remain fog free into this evening. Lake surface temperatures via the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any redevelopment of fog. Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update...Hentz Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 031956 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 .TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Area of showers and thunderstorms over east central Iowa into northern Illinois will remain in that area into this evening. Area of fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should remain clear into this evening. Diurnal cumulus clouds will gradually dissipate early this evening. There may be a few middle to high clouds overnight, but most of the night should be clear. Light winds should allow for a relatively cool night, with lows in the middle 50s in most areas. It should be a little warmer near the lakeshore. High pressure will continue to slowly slide east of Lake Superior into Tuesday. The high will bring dry easterly flow and bring a pleasant day. Mild temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected inland, with onshore winds keeping lower to middle 70s near Lake Michigan. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Shortwave energy will carve out a closed mid-level cyclone over the lower Missouri valley on Tuesday. Models then project the closed circulation to lift northeast on Wednesday, as moisture from this system combines with that of a northern stream wave approaching the western Great Lakes. Thereafter, look for the low to devolve to an open-wave trough as it swings east into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be in control Tuesday evening, with dry southeasterly flow preventing much intrusion of low-level moisture into southern Wisconsin. This should keep us high and dry for the evening's fireworks displays, with pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover will be increasing however, especially from around Madison west. The surface high shifts east on Wednesday, allowing deeper moisture to spread into western portions of our area. Column integrated precipitable water values climb to around 1.6 inches by afternoon, with dewpoints nearing 70 degrees west of Madison. Several model solutions keep a west to east oriented dewpoint/low-level moisture gradient in place through the afternoon and evening, suggesting we may still be battling the high's residual influence. The best focused moisture transport remains to our northwest (closer to the mid-level wave) and south (near the deep layer low), but we do see some slight increase by late afternoon, as warm cloud depths thicken to around 3.5 km. Aforementioned moisture combined with diabatic heating should lead to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model forecast soundings suggest anywhere from 500 to 1200 J/kg of MLCAPE is possible in our west, but our instability will ultimately hinge on a) the amount of heating we receive, and b) the speed and quality of our boundary layer moisture recovery. Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer appears somewhat meager, with magnitudes on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 thunderstorm outlook places our western areas in a marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this seems prudent, with a few storms possibly producing gusty winds and/or hail. Another shortwave drops down from the northwest on Thursday afternoon and evening. The 03.12z deterministic GFS solution is both stronger and deeper with the wave as compared to the 03.12z Canadian and 03.00z ECMWF solutions. Both the GFS and Canadian solutions bring shower/thunderstorm chances into southern Wisconsin from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, while the ECMWF keeps us dry. Will defer to the consensus PoPs during this time given the uncertainty. Temperatures during this period will be seasonal, with cooler readings in the east due to periods of onshore flow. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Most of the global models build high pressure into our area from the northwest on Friday, with the 03.00z ECMWF being the lone outlier. Its solution would keep the shower/thunderstorm chances going into early Friday afternoon. For now, will stick with the dry consensus. High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures should prevail for the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possibly returning for Sunday night and/or Monday. && .AVIATION(21Z TAFS)... Any shower/storm activity will remain south of the Illinois border into this evening. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening. Light northeast to east winds are expected into tonight. The fog over the lake east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and should remain fog free into this evening. High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should remain fog free into this evening. Lake surface temperatures via the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any redevelopment of fog. Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 031528 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1028 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 .UPDATE... Area of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the far southern counties should continue to gradually shift to the southeast of the Illinois border by early this afternoon. These were being driven by some low level frontogenesis and weak 925 mb to 850 mb convergence. In addition, some fog may affect areas along the lakeshore from south of Sheboygan to around downtown Milwaukee until early afternoon. Some diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by the afternoon, with pleasant summer temperatures. Onshore winds will keep lakeshore areas cooler than normal. Wood && .MARINE... Areas of fog will linger until early this afternoon across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, mainly between Sheboygan and McKinley Marina in Milwaukee. Latest visible satellite imagery continues to show the fog across these areas, with a slow decreasing trend. This area has cool lake surface temperatures in the upper 40s from the most recent MODIS satellite imagery, which combined with dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s is allowing the fog to form. Onshore winds into the afternoon should bring some downwelling conditions, and allow lake temperatures to warm. This should help the fog dissipate. Wood && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 636 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) AVIATION(12Z TAFS)... Isolated showers and t-storms will continue to affect far southern WI through the morning, but should end by late morning or early afternoon as instability axis continues to shift farther south. Patchy fog will linger several more hours near Lake Michigan in parts of Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties before dissipating. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 305 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) DISCUSSION... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High. Drier, more stable air continues to slowly settle southward across southern WI. However there remains a weak instability axis over the far south, where MUCape is around 500 j/kg. Isolated showers and t- storms have been moving along Cape gradient toward southwest WI from south of Decorah IA last several hours. Possible this isolated activity may carry into the Darlington, Mineral Point and Monroe areas into the early morning. Eventually instability axis and deeper column moisture will settle farther south into northern IL by late morning or early afternoon. However an isolated early afternoon t-storm may brush far southern Lafayette or Green Counties. Otherwise, dry and less humid conditions are expected as weak high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. Light winds and high low level moisture has allowed patchy fog to develop over parts of northern and eastern CWA where skies have been more clear to partly cloudy. Several observations reporting 3-5 miles in light fog while KSBM has fallen to 1/2 mile. However nearby webcams show thicker fog remains quite patchy in the Sheboygan area. Hence wl stick with patchy fog wording through the early morning. Light winds expected again tonight but a bit more mixing expected just above shallow inversion. With potential of high clouds returning tonight, will hold off on adding fog mention for tonight. Tuesday - Confidence...Medium Mid level ridging combined with a lower level anticyclone will likely keep things dry. Bufkit soundings from both the NAM and GFS show a decent amount of drier air in the lower levels with little in the way of MUCAPE. The better return flow remains to our west and though 850 dew points nudge up a bit into the southwest cwa where a southerly flow picks up a bit more there. Tuesday night and Wednesday - Confidence...Medium A 500 millibar shortwave will approach the area Tuesday night with some increase in DCVA and an eastward translation of better 850 moisture advection. The 00z GFS did scale things back precip-wise from the prior 18z run and now actually holds things back quite a bit during the overnight hours. The ECMWF is a compromise between the more robust GEM solution and the slower GFS. Better consensus between the GFS and ECMWF for SHRA/TSRA to overspread the area on Wednesday as the 500 millibar shortwave enhances forcing across the area. Thursday - Confidence...Medium The 500 millibar trough axis shifts east of srn WI with a northwest flow taking hold. The progs show an increase WAA from the west with the GFS showing additional precip development ahead of low pressure and a cold front approaching from the northwest. The ECMWF and GEM keep it dry in the afternoon with just lingering morning chances associated with the exiting wave. Thursday night and Friday - Confidence...Medium A cold front is proggd to drop into the area with some SHRA/TSRA expected. The GEM is the only dry model for area keeping this precip to our north. the ECMWF has better precip coverage on Friday morning versus the GFS which has the better potential Thursday night. By Friday afternoon 850 cool advection gets underway and this is more pronounced on the GFS. Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium Surface/850 high pressure dominates this period with lingering low level thermal trough in place. High drifts east on Sunday with winds turning more to the southwest. AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Patchy MVFR cigs floating around far southwest CWA last several hours, however expect these lower cigs to erode or lift to VFR as drier air continues to settle into southern WI. Can not rule out an isolated shower or t-storm into the early morning over the far south as well. Patchy fog will also lower visibilities for a few hours in the north and east until 12z or so this morning. Visibilities may drop to less than 1 mile for an hour or two. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to persist for much of the forecast period. MARINE...Onshore winds are now expected for the next several days, at least into Wednesday. Wind speeds will remain lighter as well. Next chance for more widespread showers and storms will be Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update...Wood Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 011449 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 949 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 .UPDATE...Near perfect day setting up over southern Wisconsin with light winds, low humidity and temperatures rising into the 70s. 925H temps favor temps rising into the mid to upper 70s, with a few western locations cracking 80. Developing lake breeze will keep lakeshore locations hovering in the mid 60s to low 70s much of the afternoon. && .MARINE...Light and variable winds over the nearshore waters will be turning onshore in the next 1-3 hours as lake breeze develops. Light pressure gradient due to nearby high pressure will result in wind speeds remaining mostly less than 10 knots. Latest MODIS imagery shows Lake Michigan surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s to lower 50s in the near shore waters as well as to mid-lake. Average Lake Michigan surface water temperature running close to the long-term average for June 1st. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 643 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017) UPDATE... AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for today and tonight. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017) SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High. High pressure will prevail over the western Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley. Full sunshine will yield high temps in the upper 70s well away from Lake MI. A lake breeze will develop by late morning. Lows tnt in the 50s. LONG TERM... Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high: After a short run of mostly sunny skies and dry weather, an active pattern will set up for the end of the week and weekend. Expect increasing shower/storm chances Friday into Saturday as low pressure approaches. The low is then progged to move through Sat night. There will be a pretty good moisture surge Friday night and again Saturday as the low approaches, with precipitable water values up around 1.5 inches and dewpoints as high as the mid/upper 60s. Could see a couple storms reach severe levels Fri night and Saturday, with SPC highlighting a Marginal Risk across much of the forecast area both Fri and Sat. Wind flow and shear not that impressive, but plenty of instability. It looks drier Sunday, though a shortwave rotating through on the back side of the upper low may kick of a few showers/storms. Models have come into better agreement with a warmer pattern Fri through the weekend. Expect above normal temps each day, though clouds and precip could throw a wrench in things on Saturday. If there is a break in the action, Saturday has the potential to be the warmest day, with highs in the 80 to 85 range. Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium: Could see a shower or two Monday as another weak wave rotates through the backside of the broad cyclonic flow centered to the east. High pressure is then expected to bring dry weather for Tue/Wed. Temps look like they will be within a few degrees of normal for the first half of next week. AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for today and tonight. MARINE... Light winds and low wave heights for today and Fri. Lake breezes will occur each day. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update/Marine...MBK Today/Tonight and Aviation...MG Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 200826 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 326 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High. 700H warm air advection which triggered strong storms over northeast CWA Sunday evening has since pushed well to the east of the area. Focus is now on low level warm air advection associated with 850H jet. However LLJ has been focused across eastern IA and northern IL where numerous thunderstorms are currently located. This activity is tracking ESE and should continue through the early morning. However wl carry small pops in far south through the early morning as elevated instability lingers across northern IL as low level trof axis passes through. Latest IR imagery shows mid-level clouds progressing steadily eastward last several hours with only high clouds over most of the area. Not seeing much stratus developing near inverted trof/front at this time, but could still develop as it progresses eastward across srn WI this morning. Bit more low level moisture drawn into the low levels from storms to the south could help low clouds form for a time as well. Otherwise, expect a milder day but can't get too excited due to the bkn-ovc cloud cover expected much of the day and light winds becoming NE. Also, weak upstream 700H short wave over Dakotas weakens as it progresses ESE but may bring a few light showers to northern CWA later this afternoon, along with more mid- level cloudiness. Increasing northeast winds will also cause lakeshore areas to cool during the afternoon and evening as lake surface temps are mostly in the 35 to 40 degree range. Benign conditions to continue tonight with slightly colder temps. .LONG TERM... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. A cold front will drop through WI Tuesday in response to a shortwave trough and surface low crossing Lake Superior. Gusty north-northeast winds will accelerate down Lake Michigan faster than on land. Lake temperatures are running 35-37F/2-3C range. 850mb temps are expected to be in the -9 to -11C range and falling. The difference is right in that preferred range for lake effect snow showers. Thus, added a mention of flurries for now and increased sky cover significantly when the anticipated lake band(s) affect southeast WI (late Tue afternoon through overnight. Will continue to watch for potential of measurable snow. Wednesday should be a cold and clear day, with the exception of some lake effect clouds due to easterly winds. Highs are expected in the 30s near the lakeshore and around 40 well inland. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. Southerly winds with return flow around the high will usher moisture back into southern WI by Thu evening. A weak shortwave could bring light precip (snow) to northern WI late Wed night, but this should miss southern WI or just give us flurries. Warm frontal precip is expected to arrive late Thu afternoon or evening. Models are coming into better agreement now. The strong warm air advection should allow for this precip to be in the form of rain across southern WI. Went with non-diurnal temp trend Thu night. The weather pattern favors thunderstorms over the Midwest ahead of this mid level trough over the Plains. There is a small chance for thunder Thu night with the warm front, but probably a better chance Friday along the cold front. Too early and uncertain to discuss severe potential for southern WI. Models diverge for Saturday. WI weather will depend on where the closed upper low tracks. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. It looks like a very active weather pattern for next week with a series of shortwave troughs tracking into the Midwest from the Plains. Temperatures appear warm enough for all rain. && .AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Skies are clearing across south central WI although believe clouds at 3-4 kft will remain most of the night and Mon AM near the IL border. Slight chances of showers and tstorms will continue tonight into Mon AM especially near the IL border. A weak cold front will pass Mon AM and moisture within the frontal zone may lead to MVFR Vsbys around sunrise. Partly cloudy skies are likely for much of Mon with mid level clouds possibly increasing for late afternoon and evening. LLWS may be possible into the early overnight via a swly 35-40 kt LLJ. && .MARINE... Gusts to 22 knots reported at SGNW3 at 07z. Thinking this may be related to outflow from earlier convection so expect winds to settle down early. Light onshore flow wl turn to the north to northeast this afternoon after cold frontal passage. Gusts with these winds may get close to Small Craft levels. Recent MODIS imagery estimates lake surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. With mild air remaining aloft, hoping that low level inversion wl prevent stronger wind gusts from reaching lake surface. In addition, GFS showing weaker winds in the low levels compared to NAM and RAP. This is a weak excuse however as NAM/RAP solutions typically better in forecasting gusts over near shore waters. Due to low level inversion and model discrepancy, wl hold off on issuing Small Craft for now. Better chance for stronger wind gusts Tuesday night into Wednesday as much colder air sags south across the Great Lakes. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Tuesday through Sunday...Cronce  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 231025 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 425 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 .NEAR TERM...(Today) Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 Moisture advection and shallow isentropic ascent has led to low stratus development around 1.5 to 2.5 kft this morning in eastern areas, generally from Franklin County (TN) southward through much of Jackson and DeKalb Counties. Patchy fog had developed by late in the evening as indicated by several observation sites, however MODIS/VIIRS RGB satellite images have shown that the fog is very limited in coverage and largely located in narrow valleys adjacent to the plateau. Since the low stratus has developed and moved across the area, some, if not most, of this valley fog has dissipated. Elsewhere, patchy fog was present along/near the TN River channel around Wheeler/Wilson Lakes and nearby low-lying communities. Nevertheless, the fog does not appear to be sufficiently dense or widespread to warrant a dense fog advisory at this time. Temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 50s at most locations early this morning, and will remain near stationary until sunrise. Any remaining fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise this morning. The low stratus currently in the east and in areas to our south will gradually spread farther westward, perhaps into the Huntsville/Decatur metro area later this morning. However, this cloud deck will tend to disperse during the afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are likely to reach the low/mid 70s for most locations. The most likely adjustments made to the forecast later may be to address issues with cloud cover and impacts to temps though, since the timing of dissipation and extent of the low cloud deck remains a little uncertain. .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 A broad, partially closed upper low currently in the Western CONUS will move into the Plains states as it phases with a northern stream trough in central Canada tonight and Friday. In response, a surface low will develop and briefly strengthen along the baroclinic boundary stretching across the Plains and Upper Midwest while a surface cold front moves into the Mississippi Valley region. In the warm sector in advance of this front, temperatures may soar into the upper 70s across many locations in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures as high as 80 degrees may occur particularly in NW Alabama closer to the main axis of strong temperature advection from the SW. Record high temperatures are likely to fall at some locations on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the advancing front on Friday, but a significant capping inversion centered around 700-800 mb will tend to keep development at bay in our area until late in the day. To our north, where better instability and dynamical forcing will be present, thunderstorm development is expected to occur earlier. Showers and storms are expected to then develop gradually southward along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the area Friday evening. So, the best chances for shower/thunderstorm activity will be in the north. CAPE values may reach ~1000 J/KG while deep layer shear in the vicinity of ~50 kts suggests some storm organization will be possible. Sounding profiles suggest "thin" CAPE up through 700 mb, with most of the CAPE above 700 mb to the EL, and dry mid-level conditions with a relatively moist boundary layer. The threat for damaging winds and large hail will be present, but is marginal. Looping hodographs, marginally high effective inflow helicity, and LCLs around 1 km suggest a slight tornado threat during the evening. The threat for strong to severe storms will subside as the cold front moves across the area quickly during the overnight period. Much cooler, but sunny conditions will return for Saturday as a modified Canadian airmass moves into the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 Medium range guidance from the global models is in agreement that a zonal flow regime in place over the southern CONUS at the beginning of the extended forecast period will become more amplified on Sunday as a 500-mb trough digs southeastward into WA/OR. A shortwave disturbance crossing the southern Rockies late Sunday is forecast to weaken and eject east-northeastward into the upper OH valley by late Monday afternoon, as prevailing flow downstream from the western CONUS trough backs to the southwest. At the surface, the center of a Canadian surface high will be located across the TN valley on Sunday morning providing ingredients for strong radiational cooling. After morning lows in the u20s/l30s, highs will rebound into the u50s/l60s as the ridge shifts eastward off the Atlantic coast and southeasterly winds strengthen. Return flow will continue to increase Sunday evening, as the southern Rockies disturbance ejects into the Plains and a weak surface low forms near the Red River valley of OK/TX. Strong low-level warm/moist advection east of the low will support widespread showers from the southern Plains into the mid-South region early Monday morning, with this regime expected to impact our forecast area during the day. A few thunderstorms are possible based on amount of elevated CAPE in forecast soundings, but overall instability should be too meager to support a threat for severe convection even with deep-layer shear around 60 knots. The Red River valley surface low will likely begin to degenerate into a baroclinic trough as the parent wave weakens and lifts further into the OH valley late Monday. This boundary may serve as a focal point for additional convection on Monday night/Tuesday, but the influence of this feature should also dissipate with time as the western CONUS longwave begins to push eastward and a new surface low forms in the lee of the central Rockies. Due to uncertainties on where the boundary may lie, we have maintained a chance POP both periods. If clouds and precip are less than anticipated on Tuesday, temperatures could easily be several degrees warmer than values in the current forecast. Convection will likely become fairly widespread to the north/west of the region Tuesday night beneath an intense low-level jet attendant to deepening cyclone ejecting through the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario/Quebec. The trailing cold front is forecast to cross our region Wednesday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day. Although shear/instability parameters appear favorable for severe storms both Tuesday night and Wednesday, coverage/intensity of frontal convection will be dictated by coverage of precipitation Tuesday night. A cooler/drier airmass of north Pacific origin will be advected into the region in the wake of this front and linger through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 Fog is expected to form during the overnight across the area, courtesy of clear skies, light winds, and residual moisture from recent rain. Although some of the fog could become locally dense - especially late tonight, the lowest I went in the TAF was 3/4SM. VFR weather should return shortly after daybreak Thu as an area of high pressure moves east of the region, bringing a SE-S wind in the late morning and afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...70/DD AVIATION...RSB For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KABR 162331 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 531 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon) Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. The 500mb trough over the western states will be slowly taking its place by mid day Friday, as a deep sfc low over Albert crosses into central Manitoba. Still, dry weather will remain over our region. Record highs for Friday range from the mid to upper 50s, with most of them again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to tie the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast to be 3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued to use available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and snow depth data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding data may also be reached over the next several days. .LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday) Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The weekend will be dominated by warmth and dry conditions. High pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the northern Rockies. This is less than favorable mixing conditions, however 850/925mb temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo, with a peak temperature of +10 to +14C at 850mb Sunday. End result is that we may see widespread upper 50s/low 60s Sunday. Sunday night, the surface gradient continues to increase with about 10mb across the state, not to mention increasing cloud cover and 1/2km winds of 30-40kts. This will keep temperatures from falling very much overnight, with the potential for lows only in the 40s. Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially, and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm us up into the 50s/60s, and blended guidance is just a few degrees off records. Consensus for the surface low track is shifting towards western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota. The track favors more showery precipitation and with a few hundred J/KG MUCAPE will keep in mention of thunder. Cold advection overnight will actually keep us mixed and mild Monday night, and by Tuesday we are back into a warm advection regime with decent mixing as a low tracks across northern North Dakota. 850/925mb temperatures remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo through the end of the forecast timeframe. The previous shift has also brought to our attention a system just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show good consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe, so will only just mention the potential for a storm to track across the region late next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Other than the potential for some patchy MVFR vsbys in fog at KATY late tonight into early Friday morning, VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight through the day Friday. Look for the possibility of some low level wind shear around the 2K foot level over the western CWA on Friday morning, affecting KPIR and KMBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Parkin  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KABR 162059 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 259 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon) Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. The 500mb trough over the western states will be slowly taking its place by mid day Friday, as a deep sfc low over Albert crosses into central Manitoba. Still, dry weather will remain over our region. Record highs for Friday range from the mid 50s to mid 50s, with most of them are again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to tie the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast to be 3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued to use available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and snow depth data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding data may also be reached over the next several days. .LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday) Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The weekend will be dominated by warmth and dry conditions. High pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the northern Rockies. This is less than favorable mixing conditions, however 850/925mb temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo, with a peak temperature of +10 to +14C at 850mb Sunday. End result is that we may see widespread upper 50s/low 60s Sunday. Sunday night, the surface gradient continues to increase with about 10mb across the state, not to mention increasing cloud cover and 1/2km winds of 30-40kts. This will keep temperatures from falling very much overnight - with the potential for lows only in the 40s! Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially, and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm us up into the 50s/60s - and blended guidance is just a few degrees off records. Consensus for the surface low track is shifting towards western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota. The track favors more showery precipitation and with a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE will keep in mention of thunder. Cold advection overnight will actually keep us mixed and mild Monday night, and by Tuesday we are back into a warm advection regime with decent mixing as a low tracks across northern North Dakota. 850/925mb temperatures remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo through the end of the forecast timeframe. The previous shift has also brought to our attention to a system just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show good consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe so will only just mention the potential for a storm to track across the region late next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 VFR ceilings and vis are expected to remain through the period for all locations but ATY. ATY has MVFR fog this morning, and could get another bout tomorrow morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KABR 131136 CCA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 536 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Will start out this morning with a persistent 500mb trough overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb cut off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across the Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to propagate eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday. At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through Leola and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau from Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind direction, do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb temps will rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west and east of the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher than originally anticipated over the last couple of days, and bumped them up a bit. These are also areas of limited to no snow left, which shows up well on the MODIS imagery from yesterday. Slightly cooler air does slide in for Tuesday, behind the exiting sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake Superior, knocking afternoon temperatures down 3-5F across the board. The coolest air. 850mb temps of -5 to -9C will be over the eastern half of the forecast area. Expect a sfc ridge to build overhead Tuesday night. Then warm southerly winds will return for Wednesday, as the ridge exits across MN. Highs will be back in the 40s to low 50s for most. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday) Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 The 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions were generating qpf over this cwa Sunday night (ECMWF), Feb 19, and Monday (GFS), Feb 20, in deep southerly flow. However, the GFS ensemble output was much less with qpf at the day 7-8 timeframe. "Likely" pops in Superblend for that forecast period may be a little overdone at this point. Until then, the extended is dry while an upper level ridge migrates from the western conus to the central conus, and upper level longwave troffing develops across the western conus. When the period opens, Wednesday night, low level waa is in full swing with steadily warming temperatures expected through the first half of the weekend. If clouds and precipitation potential do start to show up at the end of the extended forecast later today or tomorrow, the impact to temperatures will likely be some cooling. At this point, though, p-type would probably be rain from any system working northward through the region within a much above normal temperature regime like the one being forecast for later this week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 VFR conditions are expected at all locations through today and tonight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...Dorn  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KABR 130918 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Will start out this morning will at persistent 500mb trough overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb cut off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across the Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to propagate eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday. At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through Leona and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau from Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind direction, do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb temps will rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west and east of the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher than originally anticipated over the last couple of days, and bumped them up a bit. These are also areas of limited to no snow left, which shows up well on the MODIS imagery from yesterday. Slightly cooler air does slide in for Tuesday, behind the exiting sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake Superior, knocking afternoon temperatures down 3-5F across the board. The coolest air. 850mb temps of -5 to -9C will be over the eastern half of the forecast area. Expect a sfc ridge to build overhead Tuesday night. Then warm southerly winds will return for Wednesday, as the ridge exits across MN. Highs will be back in the 40s to low 50s for most. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday) Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 The 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions were generating qpf over this cwa Sunday night (ECMWF), Feb 19, and Monday (GFS), Feb 20, in deep southerly flow. However, the GFS ensemble output was much less with qpf at the day 7-8 timeframe. "Likely" pops in Superblend for that forecast period may be a little overdone at this point. Until then, the extended is dry while an upper level ridge migrates from the western conus to the central conus, and upper level longwave troffing develops across the western conus. When the period opens, Wednesday night, low level waa is in full swing with steadily warming temperatures expected through the first half of the weekend. If clouds and precipitation potential do start to show up at the end of the extended forecast later today or tomorrow, the impact to temperatures will likely be some cooling. At this point, though, p-type would probably be rain from any system working northward through the region within a much above normal temperature regime like the one being forecast for later this week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and Monday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...Mohr  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KOAX 090904 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 304 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 .SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Water vapor imagery this morning was showing a well amplified upstream ridge situated over the western CONUS with hefty moisture spilling over the top through the Pacific northwest. At the surface...strong high pressure was in control across the central Plains. Initial concern is temperatures followed by possible precipitation this weekend. A quick glance at LSRs along with yesterday afternoon MODIS false color imagery indicated that the vast majority of the CWA north of the I-80 corridor had snow cover with amounts generally from 2-5" inches reported. For today...aforementioned Pacific moisture riding down the front end the ridge will likely keep skies mostly cloudy. MET/MAV are pretty similar giving highs around 30 within areas of snow cover...with mid 30s to the south which seems reasonable for now. On Friday...max temps are a bit more problematic. Increasing thkns build in from the west with +15C 850mb temps/warm air advection invading the central Plains. The bottom line is there will likely be a large spread across the CWA with low 50s northeast and mid 60s southwest. On Saturday....a weak cold front will bring highs down a bit with mid 40s north and low 50s south. Precipitation chances return Saturday night with the approach of a stout Pacific northwest vort max. It appears that ample forcing via 700-500mb QG frontogenesis will be on hand...but soundings suggest moisture availability to be somewhat in question. Latest NAM12/GFS20/SREF all suggest changes are slim at best. Meanwhile both the CMC/ECM lay solid swath of QPF over the CWA. At any rate...appears likely that the main precipitation type will be liquid with a small mix of rain/snow here and there. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 As for the extended periods...another anomalous upper ridge building in will lead to dry conditions next week with above normal highs generally in the mid 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017 VFR conditions through the TAF period with variable amounts of higher clouds FL100-150. Light northwest winds 10kts or less will become variable Thursday morning, however are forecast to increase from the southeast 10 to 20kts Thursday afternoon. LLWS increases at all three sites after 00Z Thursday night. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...Zapotocny  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 091622 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1022 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 .UPDATE... Snow is still expected to lift through the forecast area southwest to northeast this afternoon into the evening. Forecast timing seems to be in line with current trends. Will see a trace to half an inch by evening...with additional light accumulations through the evening and into tonight. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Snow will arrive in the southwest this afternoon...lifting northeast through late afternoon into the evening. Some light precipitation will then linger tonight...with better development again late tonight into Tuesday. Precip should remain mainly snow through much of the night, but milder air will move in later tonight into Tue morning. Still think there could be a brief mix with or changeover to sleet and freezing rain before the precip becomes all rain. Total snow is forecast to range from around a trace far southwest forecast area...to around 3 inches in the far northeast. Colder temps will return later Tuesday and Tuesday night, though most of the precip will have ended by then. Lower ceilings and visibilities are likely at times with the precipitation through Tuesday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop in the high plains later today, and move east northeast into northern Wisconsin and Lake Superior on Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient with the low will result in gusty south winds redeveloping later today and continuing through tonight. An extended period of gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night, as the low deepens as it moves northeast into southern Canada Tuesday night. Building waves are expected tonight into Tuesday toward the open waters, in ice free areas. High resolution MODIS visible imagery continue to show ice regrowth over near shore waters from around North Point Lighthouse south to Winthrop Harbor and beyond. This may get broken up a bit with the increasing winds and waves tonight into Tuesday night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 615 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ UPDATE...Steady light snow has moved east of southeast Wisconsin and ended with only a few lingering flurries. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Borderline low level wind shear scenario tonight but did not include in 12z TAF issuance due to increasing surface winds. MARINE...Issued new Small Craft Advisory to cover expected gusty south winds that will develop late this afternoon and tonight as low pressure strengthens in the High Plains. A few gusts likely to reach 30 knots. The gusty winds will linger into Tuesday night as the low pressure area strengthens and moves across the western Great Lakes into Canada. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium. Steady light snow over eastern CWA will continue to diminish through 12z as 700mb warm air advection shifts off to the east. Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to weak sfc trof so may be some flurries lingering into the early morning around the area. Some areas received a couple tenths of an inch of snow overnight so roadways may be slippery early this morning, especially toward Fond du Lac, West Bend and Sheboygan. Weak high pressure will result in generally quiet conditions for a brief time this morning. However another batch of -sn should spread into southern WI this aftn as another surge of low to mid level warm air advection spreads rapidly across the area. Short term guidance in good agreement on this light snow producing less than an inch of snow accumulation by 00z with the heavier amounts in south central WI. This warm air advection pivots northeast into central WI during the evening with a lull in the light snow across the south. However expect areas of precip to redevelop later tonight as renewed surge of low level warm air and moisture advection spreads into srn WI along with enhanced synoptic lift from left exit region of upper jet. Hence wl continue likely wording for later tonight. Warm air push will result in a wintery mix with a potential for a period of -zr later tngt into Tue mrng. Concerned that pavement temps wl lag several hours behind 2M temps in warming above freezing since the arctic cold has persisted over the area for days now. ECMWF and GFS warm sfc temps rapidly late tngt and early Tue while NAM holds onto colder temps around freezing until 14-15z. May eventually need a Winter Weather Advisory to address potential for mix and slippery travel during the Tue mrng commute but too much uncertainty regarding sfc temps to issue at this time. Will however post SPS to add emphasis to concern for Tuesday. TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. A low amplitude impulse will progress through the northern Plains Tuesday morning before emerging in the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday night. The upper level wave will escort a deepening surface low as it tracks northeast through the region. Southern Wisconsin will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with temperatures already near or above freezing by mid morning. This should limit any mixed precipitation to our northern areas at this time, with all rain expected by afternoon within the warm advection regime. Precipitation amounts should be on the light side through the afternoon, with less than one quarter inch expected. The associated cold front should sweep through southern Wisconsin by mid to late afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation by evening. We could see a brief period of mixed precipitation or snow through early evening as temperatures fall, but impacts should be minimal given the limited QPF. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Models project the upper jet core to begin lifting north of the area Wednesday morning, with a weak impulse passing through during the early afternoon. It appears that any precipitation associated with this wave should remain north of our forecast area. Upper troughing will advance from the northern Rockies on Wednesday and into the upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. Southern stream energy will eject northeast from the central Plains, before phasing with the larger scale wave over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. This will initiate an elongated surface wave from the Great Plains through the mid Mississippi valley on Wednesday, with a tendency for northeastward expansion into the northern Ohio valley on Thursday. As the surface wave develops to our south, light precipitation is expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday. There is some concern for freezing rain with this system, particularly in our southeast. Given the consensus surface low track and timing (which could change), there should be sufficient warm advection for warm layer temperatures to climb to around +3 to +5 Celsius for a time Thursday night in the southeast. This suggests a relatively deep warm layer, capable of fully melting any frozen precipitation before it's passed along to a subfreezing surface layer. GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Kenosha also illustrate a freezing rain profile during this time. Forecast QPF is on the light side, with most areas receiving less than one quarter of an inch of liquid. This would limit ice accretion to under one tenth of an inch, given the current consensus of models solution. Stay tuned, as this may be a period to watch for potential travel impacts, depending upon how the forecast evolves. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Arctic high pressure arrives for Friday, with below normal temperatures returning. The cold should be short lived, however, with moderating temperatures into the weekend. Low pressure will bring another chance for precipitation on Sunday and/or Monday. Temperatures appear cold enough for this precipitation to be in the form of snow. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Area of steady light snow will continue to diminish over eastern CWA through 12Z as 700mb warm air advection slides off to the east. Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to upstream weak surface trof so a few flurries may stick around into the early morning. CIGS mostly VFR but may briefly drop to MVFR for an hour or two this morning. Otherwise, areas of -sn will return this afternoon and early evening with another period of lower cigs. More widespread lower cigs are expected later tonight into Tuesday along with a potential light wintery mix. MARINE... Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 12z this morning. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue next several hours until pressure gradient further weakens as weak surface low pressure trof approaches. Period of lighter winds expected to be brief however as stronger low pressure will develop in the high plains later today and move ENE into WI on Tuesday. Pressure gradient between this system and east coast high pressure will result in gusty south winds redeveloping late today and continuing through tonight. An extended period of gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night as the low deepens as it moves northeast from WI into srn Canada Tue ngt. Will likely reissue a Small Craft Advisory later this morning once ongoing advisory expires. Hi res MODIS visible imagery showing ice regrowth over near shore waters from Milwaukee county south to Winthrop Harbor and beyond due to lighter winds on Sunday and continued cold temps. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Wednesday for LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/Wood TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...SPM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 090953 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 353 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium. Steady light snow over eastern CWA will continue to diminish through 12z as 700mb warm air advection shifts off to the east. Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to weak sfc trof so may be some flurries lingering into the early morning around the area. Some areas received a couple tenths of an inch of snow overnight so roadways may be slippery early this morning, especially toward Fond du Lac, West Bend and Sheboygan. Weak high pressure will result in generally quiet conditions for a brief time this morning. However another batch of -sn should spread into southern WI this aftn as another surge of low to mid level warm air advection spreads rapidly across the area. Short term guidance in good agreement on this light snow producing less than an inch of snow accumulation by 00z with the heavier amounts in south central WI. This warm air advection pivots northeast into central WI during the evening with a lull in the light snow across the south. However expect areas of precip to redevelop later tonight as renewed surge of low level warm air and moisture advection spreads into srn WI along with enhanced synoptic lift from left exit region of upper jet. Hence wl continue likely wording for later tonight. Warm air push will result in a wintery mix with a potential for a period of -zr later tngt into Tue mrng. Concerned that pavement temps wl lag several hours behind 2M temps in warming above freezing since the arctic cold has persisted over the area for days now. ECMWF and GFS warm sfc temps rapidly late tngt and early Tue while NAM holds onto colder temps around freezing until 14-15z. May eventually need a Winter Weather Advisory to address potential for mix and slippery travel during the Tue mrng commute but too much uncertainty regarding sfc temps to issue at this time. Will however post SPS to add emphasis to concern for Tuesday. .TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. A low amplitude impulse will progress through the northern Plains Tuesday morning before emerging in the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday night. The upper level wave will escort a deepening surface low as it tracks northeast through the region. Southern Wisconsin will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with temperatures already near or above freezing by mid morning. This should limit any mixed precipitation to our northern areas at this time, with all rain expected by afternoon within the warm advection regime. Precipitation amounts should be on the light side through the afternoon, with less than one quarter inch expected. The associated cold front should sweep through southern Wisconsin by mid to late afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation by evening. We could see a brief period of mixed precipitation or snow through early evening as temperatures fall, but impacts should be minimal given the limited QPF. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Models project the upper jet core to begin lifting north of the area Wednesday morning, with a weak impulse passing through during the early afternoon. It appears that any precipitation associated with this wave should remain north of our forecast area. Upper troughing will advance from the northern Rockies on Wednesday and into the upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. Southern stream energy will eject northeast from the central Plains, before phasing with the larger scale wave over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. This will initiate an elongated surface wave from the Great Plains through the mid Mississippi valley on Wednesday, with a tendency for northeastward expansion into the northern Ohio valley on Thursday. As the surface wave develops to our south, light precipitation is expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday. There is some concern for freezing rain with this system, particularly in our southeast. Given the consensus surface low track and timing (which could change), there should be sufficient warm advection for warm layer temperatures to climb to around +3 to +5 Celsius for a time Thursday night in the southeast. This suggests a relatively deep warm layer, capable of fully melting any frozen precipitation before it's passed along to a subfreezing surface layer. GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Kenosha also illustrate a freezing rain profile during this time. Forecast QPF is on the light side, with most areas receiving less than one quarter of an inch of liquid. This would limit ice accretion to under one tenth of an inch, given the current consensus of models solution. Stay tuned, as this may be a period to watch for potential travel impacts, depending upon how the forecast evolves. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Arctic high pressure arrives for Friday, with below normal temperatures returning. The cold should be short lived, however, with moderating temperatures into the weekend. Low pressure will bring another chance for precipitation on Sunday and/or Monday. Temperatures appear cold enough for this precipitation to be in the form of snow. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Area of steady light snow will continue to diminish over eastern CWA through 12Z as 700mb warm air advection slides off to the east. Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to upstream weak surface trof so a few flurries may stick around into the early morning. CIGS mostly VFR but may briefly drop to MVFR for an hour or two this morning. Otherwise, areas of -sn will return this afternoon and early evening with another period of lower cigs. More widespread lower cigs are expected later tonight into Tuesday along with a potential light wintery mix. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 12z this morning. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue next several hours until pressure gradient further weakens as weak surface low pressure trof approaches. Period of lighter winds expected to be brief however as stronger low pressure will develop in the high plains later today and move ENE into WI on Tuesday. Pressure gradient between this system and east coast high pressure will result in gusty south winds redeveloping late today and continuing through tonight. An extended period of gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night as the low deepens as it moves northeast from WI into srn Canada Tue ngt. Will likely reissue a Small Craft Advisory later this morning once ongoing advisory expires. Hi res MODIS visible imagery showing ice regrowth over near shore waters from Milwaukee county south to Winthrop Harbor and beyond due to lighter winds on Sunday and continued cold temps. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning for LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...SPM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 082113 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 313 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence Is High. A trough will approach the forecast area this evening, and then move through overnight. Will probably see radar returns this evening, as warm advection increases ahead of the trough, but seeing quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels per models soundings. Thus, not expecting much if any of this first round to hit the ground. Better chance for snow will come late evening into tonight, as deeper saturation occurs. Not much liquid with this snow, but a cold airmass and fairly deep dendrite growth zone should result in pretty high snow to liquid ratios. New forecast has anywhere from a trace in the southwest forecast area, to around a half an inch in the north. Temps will likely warm slightly this evening ahead of the trough, then hold fairly steady overnight as the system moves through. It will be dry Monday morning between systems, with more snow moving in during the afternoon. Should see some light accumulations by evening, especially in the northwest forecast area. High temps tomorrow are finally expected to be back around normal. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models are trying to focus the best QPF across central Wisconsin Monday evening, with a push of drier air from the south trying to dry things out across southwestern portions of the area. Focused warm air advection pushes into the area during this time, lingering into Tuesday morning before the cold front moves east through the area. Models taking surface low track from southern Minnesota to the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan later Monday night into Tuesday morning, then pushing northeast of there Tuesday afternoon. There is not much in the way of frontogenesis response with this system. 500 mb shortwave trough does cross east through area later on Tuesday. However, strong cold air advection kicks in behind the cold frontal passage, drying things out. Forecast soundings are generally showing light snow for most of Monday night, with a period of a mix of light snow, light sleet, light freezing rain and light rain south to north late Monday night into middle morning Tuesday. All light rain is then expected for the rest of Tuesday morning, with PoPs trending downward quickly in the afternoon with the drier air working in. NAM keeps things cold into Tuesday, though is an outlier and sided with the warmer look of the other models. Continued likely PoPs for Monday evening in the north, then for most of the area later Monday night into Tuesday morning. May need higher PoPs if models remain consistent. Snowfall amounts should range from under an inch in the south, to around 1 inch in Madison and Milwaukee, to 2 to 3 inches toward Fond du lac and Sheboygan. May need a winter weather headline eventually for parts of the area for Monday night into Tuesday morning, as it will affect the Tuesday morning commute. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models are showing a generally quiet period for Tuesday night, with some differences for Wednesday. Another cold front should slide southeast through the area later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The Canadian model is the only one with QPF with the front, but kept the dry forecast, following the other models. Main issue will be another round of precipitation for Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS and Canadian models are bringing low pressure northeast across northeast Illinois into lower Michigan. Decent low level frontogenesis response occurs across the area on the GFS. Area forecast soundings from the GFS are showing potential for a freezing rain event for the area, with some light snow mixing in across the north Wednesday evening. The ECMWF is quicker with the movement of the low and associated upward vertical motion. For now, left higher PoPs in there for Wednesday night, tapering off on Thursday. Left precipitation types as light snow for collaboration purposes at this time, but may have to add in freezing rain in later forecasts. This would impact the Thursday morning commute. High pressure would then bring another shot of Arctic air for Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR conditions will prevail into this evening, as high pressure exits and a trough of low pressure approaches. Most places will probably see a little snow late this evening and into tonight, as the trough moves through. Accumulations are expected to range from a dusting to a half inch or so. This will be a very dry snow, with snow to liquid ratios of at least 20:1. Will probably see some lower ceilings and visibilities as the snow moves through. Dry weather is then expected Monday morning, as there will be a brief break between systems. Snow will then move back in during the afternoon, with more light accumulations likely into the evening and overnight. It still looks like a period of low level wind shear is possible this evening into tonight, while the low level jet moves through ahead of the trough. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening and overnight, as south to southwest winds become gusty ahead of an approaching trough. Winds will likely return to advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday night, as low pressure passes through the region. New MODIS image shows a decent amount of ice south of Milwaukee, so expect limited waves in these areas until there is a change in the ice. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Wood  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 270948 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 348 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2016 .SHORT TERM... 347 AM CST Today through Wednesday night... Relatively tranquil period of late December weather is expected into mid-week, as surface high pressure spreads across the Ohio Valley into Wednesday. Main weather features today will be a gradually diminishing but continued blustery west wind gusting 20-25 mph, closer to, but still slightly above average temperatures, and a period or two of cloud cover brushing the northern tier or two of Illinois counties through mid-day or early afternoon. Despite modest but persistent low level cold advection, model 925-950 mb thermal fields support temperatures generally in the 35-40 degree range this afternoon, especially across the southern 2/3 of the forecast area where MODIS-Terra satellite imagery from yesterday afternoon shows no remaining snow cover. Coolest temps, at or a little above freezing, are expected across the northern tier of IL counties where some snow cover still exists. Guidance in fairly decent agreement with temps, though favored slightly cooler MET numbers over snow cover in north central IL, and slightly warmer MAV farther south. While high pressure passes largely south of the area tonight, weaker ridging will extend north across the cwa beneath a region of 70-80 meter 500 mb height rises which develop in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough which passes across the region late in the day. Winds will finally weaken substantially this evening as the gradient weakens with the approach of the surface ridge. Temps should fall off fairly quickly through the 20's this evening with light winds and clear skies especially over those north/northwesternsnow covered locations. Looking to the west, a strong upper jet streak propagates across the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies tonight into Wednesday, leading to amplification of an upper trough across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region through Wednesday night. Strong H5 height falls, on the order of 150+ meters, develops across the region by Wednesday night in association with the deepening trough and a 140 knot upper level jet streak which translates through the base of the amplifying trough into the Ohio Valley overnight. Low level winds back to the south and increase late tonight and Wednesday, with warm advection and resulting isentropic ascent eventually leading to development of a mid-level overcast by late Wednesday afternoon. Low levels remain dry however, with large temperature/dew point spreads persisting through Wednesday night despite fairly vigorous forced ascent. Thus no precipitation is expected prior to the associated surface trough/cold front which moves through Wednesday night. South flow and warm advection would support temperatures in the 40's Wednesday per low-level model thermal fields. MAV/MET numbers pretty close up north, but prefer the slightly warmer MET guidance across much of the central and southern cwa where mid-upper 40's appear reasonable given lack of snow cover. Quick tightening of the surface pressure gradient should make for a fairly windy day however, with gusts around 30 mph from the south keeping wind chills in the 30's. The warm-up is fairly brief, as the surface trough/cold front pushes through Wednesday night with a return to colder west flow. Ratzer && .LONG TERM... 204 PM CST Tuesday night through Monday... Not looking for a very active week weather-wise. Robust clipper tracking well to our north should supply a quick shot of robust warm air advection Wednesday. NAM continues to think there's snow on the ground and is holding temps back as a result. Have continued to trend highs warmer than the NAM tainted blended model guidance and closer in line with the MAV which has highs well into the 40s. Cold front moves through with little fan fare Wednesday night with breezy and much cooler conditions Thursday. Forecast soundings suggest the potency of the CAA will be greater aloft resulting in steepening lapse rates which still look like they could result in flurries and perhaps some scattered snow showers Thursday afternoon. Not looking like a measurable precip event at this time. Another clipper fast on the heels of the first will attempt to moderate temps late Friday into early Saturday before another cold front moves through likely cooling temps off a bit. Later in the weekend into early next week forecast confidence is MUCH below average. ECMWF and GFS both dig a vigorous shortwave south down the California coast eventually closing off this mid/upper level low, before ejecting the system eastward. This is where the spread in solutions grow exponentially, with some models (12z operational GFS) phasing this system with northern stream and spinning up a powerful cyclone, while other guidance tracks a weakening southern stream wave across the southern states missing us altogether. Individual ensemble members run the gamut from unseasonable warmth to potential snow storm by early next week, in fact the ECMWF ensembles have high temps ranging from mid 50s (warmest member) to barely 10 above (coldest member) by next Tuesday. Needless to say, no big changes made to the blended guidance in that time range except to lower pops from likelys Monday given this uncertainty. Izzi && .AVIATION... For the 06Z TAFs... Easing but still gusty westerly winds along with a period of MVFR clouds into early Tuesday morning are the two items of interest in the aviation forecast. Gusty westerly winds have started to slowly ease, though still cannot rule out sporadic gusts to 30 kt through 09Z. The overall cyclonic, cold advection weather pattern will keep regular gusts through Tuesday morning, with direction between 250 and 280 degrees. The gust magnitude will ease gradually through Tuesday afternoon and then more quickly at sundown. Scattered to broken cold advection stratocumulus clouds will move over the TAF sites through Tuesday morning. Confidence in cloud bases remaining between 2000 and 3500 ft is high. MTF && .MARINE... 205 AM CST Low pressure continues to shift eastward into western Quebec early this morning. Westerly winds continue to be in the 30 to 35 KT over the open waters of Lake Michigan as of this writing, with slightly lighter flow of 25 to 30 KT in the Illinois and Indiana near shore waters. The current gale headline is set to end at 3 AM CST this morning. While the winds are expected to ease below gale force this morning, a couple of lingering Gales may extend an hour or two beyond this time, especially over Lake Michigan. I don't anticipate needing to extend the warning end time, but I will make a last minute decision on this prior to the 3 AM GLF issuance. Otherwise, the gale warning will be transitioned to a small craft advisory for today, especially for the Indiana waters where high waves will linger through the day. A period of lighter winds are expected tonight as a surface ridge of high pressure shifts over the region. The winds will back to a southerly direction by early Wednesday morning, then increase out of the south Wednesday. These strengthening southerly winds on Wednesday will be driven by a clipper system shifting eastward into western Ontario by late Wednesday afternoon. Pressure falls ahead of this low over the Upper Great Lakes will likely help drive a period of 30 to perhaps 35 KT southerly winds over the lake. While some low end gales are possible during the day, it appears they will be somewhat short lived. Because of this, no gale headline is planned at this time, but I will mention the potential of gale force gusts in the GLF. This same clipper system will push a cold front over Lake Michigan Wednesday night, and this will set up another period of strong west-northwesterly winds over the lake for Thursday and Thursday night. It appears probable that 35 to 40 KT west-northwesterly gales will develop during the day Thursday before abating Thursday night. The strongest winds are expected over the southern half of the lake (including the Illinois and Indiana near shore waters). A gale headline will likely need to be issued for this period as we get closer. An active weather pattern is expected to continue this weekend and into next week, with another clipper system forecast to shift towards the western Lakes region by Saturday. This could result in another period of southerly winds followed by a quick return to northwesterly winds Saturday night. Following this, yet another storm system may develop and shift northward into the lower Great Lakes region by early next week. Depending on the strengthen, and the track of this potential storm system, this could yet again produce strong winds over the lake. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 6 AM Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 PM Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM Tuesday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 232108 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 308 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is medium. An area of 600-700mb frontogenesis, 850-700mb warm air advection, and deep lift due to the 300mb jet circulation is currently along a line from northeast Iowa to Green Bay and is associated with pockets of moderate snow. This axis of heavier precip is in the area highlighted by the winter wx advisory with 2 to 3 inches expected in the MKX area, more toward central WI. The radar returns are showing a more broken/spotty scenario than what I had expected so far in this event. It is taking a long time to saturate from the top down over southern WI, even though periods of snow has made it to the ground here and there. There should still be a period of steadier snow sliding across southern WI during the late afternoon/evening, coincident with the axis of 700mb frontogenesis, but lagging behind the 600mb frontogenesis affecting more of central WI. This is the feature to watch as it could produce moderate snowfall rates during the afternoon/evening commute and peak travel time for this holiday weekend. No change to the advisory area or time. There is still the potential for a quick burst of snow between 5 and 8 pm for southeast WI. Up to an inch of snow would be possible with this feature. SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is high. Low clouds and potentially light fog will linger through Saturday morning. The exception is near Lake Michigan where extra mixing could allow for drier air from the upper levels to clear out the clouds for a time. Low level moisture is expected to get trapped below an inversion, so the clouds should linger all day at inland areas. This will keep temperatures in the lower 30s, warming to just above freezing during the afternoon. .SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is high. Nothing has really changed for this period. The powerful low pressure system will still track well northwest of the area, across northern Minnesota. This puts us well into the warm sector, and rain. The initial moisture surge well out ahead of the low could bring a period of freezing drizzle later Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will be pretty light with impact on the minimal side. We then warm up enough to keep it all rain until the associated trough/cold front sweeps late Sunday night/Monday morning. Fog is still a concern with the mild and moist airmass flowing in across the existing snowpack for Saturday night into Sunday, but the brisk winds will limit how dense it gets. There is little or no elevated CAPE on the soundings, so decided to pull the mention of thunder. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. High pressure should keep this period quiet. Temperatures will fall in the wake of the departing low...but not too cold. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s, rising back into the lower 30s on Wednesday. With the warmer temperatures on Wednesday the European model does bring a surge of moisture and a small chance of light snow to the area during the afternoon. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. The European model is a bit snowier looking than the GFS and the Canadian for Wednesday night into early Thursday. They all have a trough swinging through the Great Lakes, but the EC is a bit deeper, more west and quicker with the returning moisture and clips Wisconsin with snow before pushing quickly off to the east. The GFS and Canadian keep the bulk of the snow east of Wisconsin during the period. Given the uncertainty, there are small chances of light snow during this period, but overall it looks pretty quiet. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... Moderate snow is ongoing over central WI, with the main area setting up north and west of Madison. The back edge of the precip is over eastern Iowa and this will translate east across southern WI with stronger 700mb frontogenesis. Expect a period of steadier snow between 4 and 7 pm in south central WI and 5 to 8 pm in southeast WI. Visibilities should be down to less than a mile and a quick additional inch of wet snow is possible. Snow will taper off from west to east by midnight. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR or lower during any steady, moderate snow late this aftn and early evening. It looks like ceilings are going to remain low overnight into Saturday morning due to light winds and lingering low level moisture. Patchy fog is likely which could be IFR visibility, but confidence is low on coverage. && .MARINE... Increasing south to southeast winds ahead of an approaching low pressure trof will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later this evening. However expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for now. Mariners can expect light snow...possibly mixed with rain...to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. The next storm system to pass far to the northwest of the area on Sunday will bring strong winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Gale force southwest then west gusts are possible on Monday. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046- 056-057-062-063-067-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for WIZ047- 051-052-058-059-064. LM...None. && $$ TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...Davis  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 231643 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1043 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 .UPDATE... An area of 600-700mb frontogenesis, 850-700mb warm air advection, and deep lift due to the 300mb jet circulation is currently over central/northeast Iowa and associated with moderate snow. This forcing will quickly spread n-ne through WI from late this morning through early afternoon. The axis of heavier precip is still on target for bisecting the state sw-ne, highlighted by the winter wx advisory. The latest mesoscale models are showing the area of high reflectivity currently over central IA sliding across southern WI during the late afternoon/evening, coincident with the axis of 700mb frontogenesis, but lagging behind the 600mb frontogenesis affecting more of central WI. This is the feature to watch as it could produce high snowfall rates during the afternoon/evening commute and peak travel time for this holiday weekend. No change to the advisory area. We will highlight the potential for a quick burst of snow between 5 and 8 pm for southeast WI. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Snow will spread into southern WI from west to east late this morning and likely will not start accumulating in MKE and the lakeshore areas until 2 or 3 pm. The radar is showing returns over the south half of WI this morning, but this is not reaching the ground yet. Moderate snow is expected toward central WI, possibly including Madison, but likely north and west of there. This will be from mid afternoon through early evening. A quick burst of snow is now expected across southern WI near the IL border between 2 and 7 pm and southeast WI between 5 and 8 pm including MKE. Expect visibilities down to less than a mile and a quick additional inch of wet snow. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a time most areas this aftn and early evening before lifting. Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times. && .MARINE... Increasing south to southeast winds ahead of an approaching low pressure trof will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later today into tonight. However expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for now. Mariners should expect light snow...possibly mixed with rain...to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. The next storm system to pass far to the northwest of the area on Sunday will bring strong winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Gale force southwest then west winds are possible on Monday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High. Will delay onset of mostly light snow spreading across southern WI a few hours until late morning and afternoon. Short term guidance remains in good agreement blending of lift from upstream short wave trof and warm air advection, resulting in light snow developing over srn WI later this morning and afternoon. Despite initially warm, above freezing air aloft, elevated maximum wet bulb expected to remain below freezing as precipitation spreads in. Hence low levels will cool as they moisten resulting in mostly snow event, however there could be some snow grains or pellets mixed in at times. Even those areas that will likely see surface temperatures rise into the mid 30s should experience mostly -sn. Still looking at snowfall amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range, with the heaviest amounts across the northwest CWA. Snow ratios will be anywhere from 8 to 12 to 1, with QPF values in the 0.20 to 0.35 inch range. Will delay start times of Winter Weather Advisory by several hours due to slower arrival. Also, will leave area from Rock County northeast to Waukesha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and rest of southeast WI counties out of advisory for now, as amounts in these areas should be mostly less than 2 inches. Also, slightly warmer temperatures may allow a bit more melting of the snow as it falls. Day crew will need to watch these areas for high snowfall rates occuring during the afternoon drive time, as more people likely to be traveling for the long holiday weekend. Lift from passing short wave exits southern WI fairly rapidly during the evening. Loss of ice crystals falling into cloud bearing layer lags lift by several hours so held off on introducing any light freezing rain or drizzle toward the end of the event. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Weak high pressure moving east across the area should bring a brief period of quiet weather for Saturday. Lingering low level moisture below the inversion should keep at least some of the low clouds around through the afternoon into Saturday night. Mild temperatures are expected. Models are now in pretty good agreement with the trends with the strong low for Saturday night into Monday. They have the low undergoing cyclogenesis on Christmas Day as it shifts north northeast from the central high Plains into the eastern South Dakota area. The low then shifts into northern Minnesota Sunday night, before the low weakens and moves to north of Lake Superior Monday. Southern Wisconsin continues to see focused warm air advection push through on Christmas Day, along with some low level frontogenesis response fields. It may take some time for the air column to saturate Saturday night into Christmas morning, with no ice crystals. Thus, continued to mention light freezing drizzle in the forecast. Temperatures will warm enough for all rain by the afternoon hours. May see a very light glazing on roads Saturday night into Christmas morning. The strong cold front then shifts northeast through the area Sunday night, as the low occludes. This should continue to bring rain to the area, before ending by 12Z Monday. Kept slight chances for thunder in the south just for Sunday night, when weak elevated CAPE values exist on NAM/GFS forecast soundings. Also kept fog mention for later Saturday night into Christmas Day, with mild temperatures moving over the snow covered ground. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Strong downward momentum mixing is expected in the dry slot of this system for later Sunday night into Monday, with a tight pressure gradient. The result should be a period of strong west southwest winds, with sustained winds and gusts approaching Wind Advisory levels. Area forecast soundings support these wind speeds. Certainly a period to watch for possible wind headlines, as this period draws closer. A period of quiet weather looks to be in store for Monday into Wednesday morning, as high pressure slides by to the south of the region. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals, except Tuesday with some cooler temperatures. Models differ quite a bit with the system for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, so will lean on consensus blended PoPs for temperatures and precipitation. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Still expect a period of snow to affect southern WI, spreading in later this morning and diminishing from west to east during the evening. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a time in most areas this aftn and early evening, before lifting. Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times. MARINE... Southwest winds will back to the south to southeast this morning, ahead of approaching low pressure trof. Tightening pressure gradient ahead of system will result in increasing winds that will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels today into tonight. However, expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for now. Not enough confidence at this point that warrants posting Small Craft Advisory at this time. Mariners should expect light snow to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046- 056-057-062-063-067-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for WIZ047-051-052-058-059-064. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/DAVIS TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Wood  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 230943 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 343 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High. Will delay onset of mostly light snow spreading across southern WI a few hours until late morning and afternoon. Short term guidance remains in good agreement blending of lift from upstream short wave trof and warm air advection, resulting in light snow developing over srn WI later this morning and afternoon. Despite initially warm, above freezing air aloft, elevated maximum wet bulb expected to remain below freezing as precipitation spreads in. Hence low levels will cool as they moisten resulting in mostly snow event, however there could be some snow grains or pellets mixed in at times. Even those areas that will likely see surface temperatures rise into the mid 30s should experience mostly -sn. Still looking at snowfall amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range, with the heaviest amounts across the northwest CWA. Snow ratios will be anywhere from 8 to 12 to 1, with QPF values in the 0.20 to 0.35 inch range. Will delay start times of Winter Weather Advisory by several hours due to slower arrival. Also, will leave area from Rock County northeast to Waukesha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and rest of southeast WI counties out of advisory for now, as amounts in these areas should be mostly less than 2 inches. Also, slightly warmer temperatures may allow a bit more melting of the snow as it falls. Day crew will need to watch these areas for high snowfall rates occuring during the afternoon drive time, as more people likely to be traveling for the long holiday weekend. Lift from passing short wave exits southern WI fairly rapidly during the evening. Loss of ice crystals falling into cloud bearing layer lags lift by several hours so held off on introducing any light freezing rain or drizzle toward the end of the event. .SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Weak high pressure moving east across the area should bring a brief period of quiet weather for Saturday. Lingering low level moisture below the inversion should keep at least some of the low clouds around through the afternoon into Saturday night. Mild temperatures are expected. Models are now in pretty good agreement with the trends with the strong low for Saturday night into Monday. They have the low undergoing cyclogenesis on Christmas Day as it shifts north northeast from the central high Plains into the eastern South Dakota area. The low then shifts into northern Minnesota Sunday night, before the low weakens and moves to north of Lake Superior Monday. Southern Wisconsin continues to see focused warm air advection push through on Christmas Day, along with some low level frontogenesis response fields. It may take some time for the air column to saturate Saturday night into Christmas morning, with no ice crystals. Thus, continued to mention light freezing drizzle in the forecast. Temperatures will warm enough for all rain by the afternoon hours. May see a very light glazing on roads Saturday night into Christmas morning. The strong cold front then shifts northeast through the area Sunday night, as the low occludes. This should continue to bring rain to the area, before ending by 12Z Monday. Kept slight chances for thunder in the south just for Sunday night, when weak elevated CAPE values exist on NAM/GFS forecast soundings. Also kept fog mention for later Saturday night into Christmas Day, with mild temperatures moving over the snow covered ground. .MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Strong downward momentum mixing is expected in the dry slot of this system for later Sunday night into Monday, with a tight pressure gradient. The result should be a period of strong west southwest winds, with sustained winds and gusts approaching Wind Advisory levels. Area forecast soundings support these wind speeds. Certainly a period to watch for possible wind headlines, as this period draws closer. A period of quiet weather looks to be in store for Monday into Wednesday morning, as high pressure slides by to the south of the region. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals, except Tuesday with some cooler temperatures. Models differ quite a bit with the system for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, so will lean on consensus blended PoPs for temperatures and precipitation. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Still expect a period of snow to affect southern WI, spreading in later this morning and diminishing from west to east during the evening. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a time in most areas this aftn and early evening, before lifting. Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will back to the south to southeast this morning, ahead of approaching low pressure trof. Tightening pressure gradient ahead of system will result in increasing winds that will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels today into tonight. However, expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for now. Not enough confidence at this point that warrants posting Small Craft Advisory at this time. Mariners should expect light snow to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-056-057-062-063-067-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for WIZ047-051-052-058-059-064. LM...None. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Wood  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 210949 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 349 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Strong push of warm air advection and isentropic omega will sweep across southern WI today. Impressive layer Q-vector convergence of 20 to 30 units passes through the area later this morning through mid-afternoon. However, all short term guidance keep lower levels fairly dry below 5K ft across southwest CWA. Deeper moisture lowers to below 5K ft in the northeast for several hours. Hence wl have chance pops in the NE tapering off to a chance for flurries farther southwest. Thinking strong lift may be able to shake some flurries from mid-clouds that may reach the surface. Forecast soundings show low levels warm 1-3 degrees above freezing through a deep layer. However maximum wet bulb temperature aloft remains several degrees below freezing. With plenty of ice introduction aloft, most of the precip that does reach the ground should be light snow or flurries but could be some snow grains or pellets mixed in. Strong lift moves off to the east late in the afternoon. Cold air advection in wake of passing low pressure system should bring a period of widespread low clouds to the area overnight. A few flurries could get shaken out from these low clouds as well, but not enough confidence to include in forecast package at this point. .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models are in pretty good agreement with high pressure passing by to the south of the area Thursday into Thursday night. This should bring quiet weather to the area during this time. Area forecast soundings were trying to hold onto some of the low clouds from tonight into this period. However, think push of drier air into the area should scour out these low clouds Thursday. Temperatures should be near seasonal normals during this period. Main issue will be precipitation types for Friday into Friday evening, as 500 mb trough slides east through the region. First push of differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurs Friday afternoon, with another Friday evening. Area also sees some modest warm air advection. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models are showing a fairly broad area of QPF pushing through the region Friday afternoon, with the NAM starting to come on board with this trend. They try to hold onto some QPF Friday evening in the east, before moving out by later Friday night. Thus, increased PoPs to likely Friday afternoon, with chances Friday evening. Leaned toward GFS/ECMWF/Canadian trends, with GFS forecast soundings supporting mainly light snow for most of Friday, before deep saturated air column loses mid to upper level moisture late Friday into Friday evening. This would bring a transition to some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle during this period. Any snow accumulations would be around 1/2 inch at most Friday, with a light glazing possible Friday evening. This period will need to be watched for possible impacts for holiday travel. .SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Main issue this period will be precipitation types with the strong low for Saturday night into Sunday night across the area. A brief period of quiet weather Saturday is expected. Then, GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models show a strong low undergoing cyclogenesis as it shifts from the central high Plains to central Nebraska Christmas Day. It then shifts northeast into central or northern Minnesota Sunday night, before occluding as it shifts across Lake Superior Monday. Thus, some model differences still exist with timing and placement of this strong low. Moist conveyor belt pushes northward into the area on Christmas Day, with plenty of upward vertical motion from focuses warm air advection and low level frontogenesis response. Good differential cyclonic vorticity advection also occurs Sunday night. Cold front then pushes through the area Sunday night or Monday morning. GFS forecast soundings suggest a period of light freezing rain would be possible Saturday night into Christmas morning, before all rain develops by afternoon into Sunday night. Went with this general trend in the forecast for now, until models can get into better agreement with timing and placement of low and related features. Temperatures should be relatively mild for Christmas Day into Monday. This will be another period to watch for holiday travel impacts. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Small chance of light snow later this morning and afternoon across northern and eastern CWA, as strong lift associated with passing low pressure and warm air surge. Lower levels remain fairly dry so kept pops low. Few flurries may get shaken out of mid-clouds farther south. Expect mostly VFR conditions today, but brief period of -sn may lower cigs/vsbys briefly to MVFR. Cold air advection behind passing low pressure will bring a period of lower cigs across srn WI tonight. && .MARINE... Gusty west winds will continue to diminish early this morning as pressure gradient further weakens. Tug located several miles southeast of Sheboygan at 08Z reported sustained winds of 18kts and Racine Reef still reporting wind gusts around 20kts. These off-shore winds will back to the south to southeast ahead of an approaching low pressure trof and restrengthen this afternoon and evening. Recent MODIS imagery showing lake surface temp remaining mostly in the mid-upper 30s. Hi-Res MODIS vsbl imagery from Tuesday also showing small areas of ice build up east of Racine and Wind Point. Expect this ice to thin and melt as winds pick up from the south today along with warmer daytime temps. Low level winds will start to gust to around 25 knots by late afternoon and continue through tonight as low pressure passes by to the north. Hence will post new Small Craft Advisory, beginning late afternoon, and carrying into Thu morning. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Wood  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 172319 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 619 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through late week. A dry cold front will advance through the area on Saturday, followed by much cooler high pressure through the middle of next week. Another cold front will move through next Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Thermal falls are beginning to accelerate this evening within a decoupled boundary layer and prime radiational conditions are expected to prevail once again. Opted to nudge temperatures down a few degrees across the coastal corridor and introduce some stronger mesoscale influences over some of the normally colder areas such as the Francis Marion National Forest to account for the expected radiational setup. Also nudged temperatures over Lake Moultrie up by several degrees given trends noted at Pinopolis over the past several mornings. Conditions favor another night of shallow ground fog across the area with the better fog parameters looking to align across mainly the central and southern zones. Smoke generated by wildfires burning over the Southern Appalachians and the foothills of North Carolina will not be as much of an issue tonight, but it will linger in many places as the nocturnal inversion strengthens. A late afternoon MODIS image clearly showed a large smoke plume in place across much of South Carolina and Georgia, but it was certainly not as thick as previous days given the more northerly steering trajectory. The South Carolina DHEC has issued a CODE ORANGE Air Quality Alert for Charleston and Beaufort Counties. As a reminder, the Georgia Department of Natural Resources' Air Protection Branch does not issue Air Quality Alerts for Southeast Georgia. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The large ridge will persist through Friday night before shifting off the coast as a potent shortwave approaches. Unseasonably warm temps expected Friday through Saturday, then a cold front will sweep through late Saturday afternoon with much colder air resulting. No rain expected with the front though breezy conditions expected Saturday. By Sunday, high temps will only peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s despite a full day of sun. A decent gradient will produce 10-15 mph winds on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold/dry high pressure will build across the region behind a cold front departing well offshore Sunday night, bringing some of the coldest temps so far this season. The main issue will be overnight temps as cold air continues to advect into the region aloft while sfc winds become light. At this time, Sunday night lows should approach the low/mid 30s away from the coast with a few areas potentially hitting the freezing mark well inland and north of I-16. Given the setup, a freeze watch/warning could be needed. Cooler conditions will persist into Monday with high temps peaking in the upper 50s north to low/mid 60s south, but temps should be a few degrees warmer Monday night, keeping temps slightly above freezing. Temps will gradually recover into the middle of next week under a zonal flow. In general, temps will peak into the mid/upper 60s Tuesday, then upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. Another dry cold front should then approach the region on Thursday. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR for much of the period, although shallow ground fog could reduce vsbys to high-end MVFR at KSAV 09-12z. Smoke/haze will continue to impact both terminals for Friday. Extended Aviation Outlook...VFR conditions are expected at both KCHS and KSAV terminals. Breezy Saturday/Sunday with a passing cold front. && .MARINE... Tonight: Tranquil conditions expected with high pressure in control. Could see some patchy smoke which could reduce visibilities below 5 NM at times. Friday through Tuesday: High pressure will dominate the coastal waters through early Saturday with sub-advisory winds/seas. A dry cold front will then move through the waters Saturday evening with strong cold air advection and 25-35 kt low-level winds resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions across most if not all of the waters. Conditions improve Monday into Tuesday with high pressure settling over the waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor salt water flooding is expected around the times of the morning high tide Friday and potentially into Saturday until a cold front sweeps offshore. Coastal Flood Advisories are likely. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for SCZ040- 042>045-047-049-051-052. Air Quality Alert until midnight EST Friday night for SCZ048- 050. MARINE...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KJKL 141827 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 127 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 127 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016 Latest MODIS data showing some light smoke is being seen across the area from Eastern TN wildfires. Given the overall better concentration based on the MODIS was in the far south and therefore added patchy smoke in the grids. The areas nearer the fire will have more issue related to VIS, but LOZ has improved this afternoon. This as BL winds are expected to shift to a more SW to W direction, but there could be a slight delay given some smoke further downstream in portions of central KY and Middle TN. Overall more minor changes made to deal with the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 1040 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 We are once again dealing with some smoke across the region. The BL winds are out of the south and this is pulling some smoke from the TN Valley into mainly southern portions of the CWA. Several sites in the south are dropping to 2 to 7 miles VIS. These winds are expected to shift more southwest to west, and this should help to decrease the smoke through the afternoon. The overall forecast grids are in good shape but did update with latest obs. UPDATE Issued at 644 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points into the diurnal rise to account for the latest trends in observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 Broad surface high pressure is sprawled from southeast Texas to the Tennessee Valley. A weak cold front is slowly shifting east and southeast from the Midwest down to the southern Plains states. Aloft, troughiness is culminating across the central to eastern CONUS. A couple of weaker upper level lows are moving through the flow, one currently near the Missouri/Arkansas border headed east, and the other moving more northeast into North Carolina. Meanwhile, a more substantial short wave is moving towards the Midwest. Eastern Kentucky remains under the influence of the surface high pressure nearby, with another cold night, thanks to a dry column and nearly calm winds once again. Valleys will likely not bottom out quite as much as yesterday morning, but a few places may get close. Moisture will gradually be on the increase through the short term, as the weak cold front approaches from the west. Today will feature another mostly sunny day, with light and variable winds picking up out of the west at 5 to 10 mph during peak mixing. This trajectory should help keep the smoke in check besides localities in the vicinity of any ongoing fires. Highs will generally be in the lower 60s once again. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, with an increase in cloud cover towards dawn. While dew points will not be as dry as Sunday, still think that some of the eastern valleys will likely dip below 30 degrees once again, while ridges stay up at around 40 degrees. Tuesday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with the cold front disintegrating as it attempts to make its way across our parched region. Highs will be a touch cooler in most places thanks to the clouds, with around 60 degrees more common. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 The extended period will start off dry and warm, with near normal temperatures expected on Wednesday, and well above normal temperatures on tap for Thursday and Friday. Highs on those three days are forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s to around 70, and the lower 70s respectively. Scattered clouds are also expected to move across the area on Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure aloft exits the area. After that, a large ridge of high pressure is progged to move slowly eastward across the eastern CONUS, bringing unseasonable warmth to eastern Kentucky to end the week. A significant pattern change is then expected over the upcoming weekend. The models are in agreement that a large trough of low pressure aloft will sweep across the Rocky Mountains and across the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes, and Ohio and Tennessee valley regions Friday night through the weekend. This system is expected to pull a good deal of cold air out of southern Canada and into the eastern CONUS as it makes its way east. There are two schools of thought with regard to this system. First, the ECMWF model brings a strong cold front across our region Friday night and Saturday, with widespread rain showers accompanying the front. This model has rain lingering across eastern Kentucky through early Sunday morning. The GFS, on the other hand, is about 6 hours slower with its eastward moving front than the ECMWF, and has its front weakening significantly as it moves our way. In fact, the GFS has very little if any rain actually affecting eastern Kentucky this weekend and essentially is moving a dry front across our area. That being said, the precipitation forecast for the weekend will feature the timing of the ECWMF model, with scaled down precipitation probabilities based on the amount of uncertainty between the two models. Will go with a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain for the period Friday night through early Sunday morning. The cold air associated with the weekend trough looks like it will be the real story. Saturday and Sunday should see below normal temperatures, particularly Sunday, after the trough axis has moved east of our area and winds have shifted to the northwest. Highs on Saturday are expected to only max out in the 50s, with max values in the 40s possible for Sunday. Overnight lows from Wednesday through Friday night are expected to bottom out in the 30s and 40s. Saturday night and Sunday could be substantially colder, with lows each of those nights in the lower 30s and mid to upper 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016 VFR remains the story with high pressure in control across the region. We do see some mid to high clouds across the far SE otherwise most our seeing mostly sunny skies. The only other issue is smoke coming in from wildfire across the TN Valley. This as BL winds have been out of the south and southeast this morning. The smoke is expected to subside through the afternoon, as the BL winds shift to a more SW to W direction. The only TAF site that has seen issues this morning is LOZ and they have since returned to VFR. We could begin to see a lower cloud deck, with dry cold front toward the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KMRX 132011 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 311 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Monday)... For this afternoon and early evening...removed any slight chance POPs for extreme eastern areas. Upper low and associated pcpn SE of the area continue to move E. Biggest immediate concern is with the air quality in the lower and middle East Tennessee Valley. Observations in Knoxville and Chattanooga coupled with latest visible satellite imagery and MODIS high resolution polar orbiter all indicate a very widespread area of smoke and reduced visibilities extending from SE Tennessee up the valley into NE Tennessee...although no observations in that area are yet reporting lowered visby. With flow in the lowest 3000 feet remaining fairly weak over the next 24 hours...do not expect this reduction to visby and poor air quality to even have a chance to lessen until at least late Monday afternoon when winds in this layer may begin to shift more uniformly out of the west. In the meantime, decoupling overnight will certainly trap smoke near the surface and could exacerbate already poor air quality. As the upper low southeast of the area continues to push further east into Monday, high pressure settle in across the area. A rather vigorous shortwave moving over Arkansas today will slide NE across the area tomorrow bringing nothing more than some enhanced cloudiness over the upper third of the area. Expect near normal temperatures with afternoon RH values dropping again toward 30 percent...further reinforcing the afternoon fire weather hazard across the area. .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)... Unfortunately, much of the long term period will be dry even as a long wave trough hangs around across the Eastern U.S. through mid week. There just isn't enough moisture for the production of any widespread showers when a weak cool front builds southeast through the Southern Appalachians early on Wednesday. Another strong upper level ridge builds east across the eastern states later Wednesday through Friday keeping the dry forecast in place. Finally, late Friday night into Saturday a cold front will move across the forecast area generating some rainfall. Some uncertainty exists in terms of the intensity of the precipitation with this frontal system, but of course, any rainfall is welcome. There is a small chance that there could be a few more showers on Sunday as additional short wave energy drops southeast through the base of the weekend long wave trough. It looks like another mild November week ahead with high temperatures starting out about three to four degrees ahead of normal on Tuesday. The warmth continues through the work week with highs topping out a good ten to to twelve degrees above normal by Friday. Cooler air building in over the weekend with bring us back to normal or below with highs in the 50s by Sunday. $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 67 43 66 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 63 40 64 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 63 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 61 34 60 / 10 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 131848 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1248 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 Rather busy day here at the office as calls/tweets continue to roll in about the smoke across the area. The low level flow remains east to northeasterly, and visibilities have dropped to around 4-5 miles in spots across northeast Alabama. Midday shortwave IR imagery from MODIS shows several large fires/hotspots, with the largest being the Rough Ridge/Cohutta fire across north central GA. At last report, this fire has burned over 19k acres. Multiple fairly signficant fires evident across eastern Tennessee into western NC, showing up even through the midday cloud cover. Aside from the smoky conditions, clouds have cleared out this afternoon as the initial upper low ejects east (more on that in a bit). Temps recovered quickly from a chilly start, currently running in the low to middle 60s in most locations. Winds will decouple quickly tonight making for a rather smoky night. Through the smoke/haze, viewing of the super/mega/colossal moon should be decent if not optimal across the area. For reference, the supermoon will reach its closest point to earth tonight at 522 AM CST. Moon rise this evening will be around 440 PM CST with moon set around 610 AM CST. .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 A messy split flow pattern will persit through the short term with a series of southern stream systems passing across the region over the next 48 hours. The first aforementioned upper tough/low will continue to push east toward the southeast United States coastline tonight. Although this feature did bring some cloudiness to the region earlier today, the rainfall remained well east of the Tennessee Valley. The next wave will weaken significantly as it approaches the area on Monday. Little in the way of low level moisture will be present with this sytem, and only expect an increase in mid/high clouds perhaps late Monday. One bit of good news, winds should slowly veer to a more westerly direction and help somewhat with the smoke/haze situation (at least temporarily). Refer to our recent social media posts (over the past couple of days) along with today's Public Information Statement on more details concerning the smoke/fires. Despite some increase in cloud cover late on Monday, the warm air advection and southerly flow should help temps reach a category or so above today's readings for high temperatures. A secondary shortwave trough will move across Monday night on the back edge of the larger scale longwave trough. This system will have a bit more lift associated with it, although moisture is still limited. The latest high resolution model guidance produces very light QPF across northern MS and northwest AL late Monday night into early Tuesday. Will continue dry forecast for now given already dry thermal profiles and little model continuity. The upper level ridge will sharpen acros the central/southern plains on Tuesday in response to some phasing of nrn/srn stream energy along the eastern seaboard. This will help to push a weak dry front across the Tennessee Valley. Really not much, if any, airmass change with this feature as thickness values remain at or above climatological norms. In fact, trends show a slightly less amplified eastern CONUS flow pattern than previous runs. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1235 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 To start this period, an upper ridge will be over the central portion of country with the TN valley in nw flow. By Thursday the upper ridge axis is progged to move over the sern US. This scenario will keep dry conditions along with a slight warming trend across the cwa. Aftn highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low/mid 70s with mrng lows mainly in the mid 40s. These aftn/mrng temps will also continue into Friday. However Friday looks to be the last day of above normal temps as a fairly strong cdfnt will be approaching the TN valley. For now will lean a little more with the GFS for the timing of the cdfnt. As such the cdfnt should begin to affect the TN valley by late Friday night and into Saturday mrng. If the GFS is correct the cdfnt should be out of the cwa by the early evening hours on Saturday. Behind the cdfnt much more colder temps will push across the area on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 50s with a good chc of freezing temps by Sunday night/Monday mrng )based on GFS model soundings). As for any severe wx with this cdfnt, it looks to be a low cape/ high shear event, especially late Friday night and early Saturday mrng. However overall it does not look like a widespread severe event attm, due to speed of cdfnt and perhaps a lack of good moisture return. Thus for now will maintain slight chc wording for tsra on Friday night and just shra on Saturday. However may have to add a slight chc of thunder on Saturday for locations east of I65.This will all depend on the timing of the cdfnt. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016 Weak ridging will persist across the Tennessee Valley through tonight helping to maintain general VFR conditions at both KHSV and KMSL. Light northeasterly flow does continue to advect in smoke from fires in Northern Georgia, with the smoke layer extending up to around 8 kft. This obscuration may reduce visibilities in isolated spots to around 5-6 statute miles. A weak system will approach the area on Monday resulting in a wind shift to the south and eventually southwest. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...15 SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...007 AVIATION...15 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KJKL 131742 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1242 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 The latest MODIS imagery suggests the heaviest smoke remains across the TN Valley this afternoon. There are more localized issues here in eastern Ky particularly near the I-75 region around London and south/east. Given the more isolated nature will keep out of the grids. However some VIS restrictions are being seen in these areas based on webcams and ASOS. The 12Z HRRR Smoke product does suggest some elevated light smoke issues through the afternoon particular in the south, but this is not expected to be like the smoke issues seen last week. Forecast grids are on track but did update with latest obs. UPDATE Issued at 1028 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 Most sites have come above freezing this hour and therefore the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire. Given the widespread hard freeze this will also put a end to the Frost/Freeze Program until spring. In terms of the forecast, surface analysis shows a high pressure generally center across northern KY and portions of WV. Meanwhile a upper level low is centered across the TN Valley and Northern GA, and this is bringing showers and clouds to portions of GA/SC this AM. We will remain under the control of the surface high and therefore another very dry day is on tap. We could also see some light smoke across the region today in the lower levels, but not confident that this will cause any widespread surface VIS restrictions. Therefore will leave out of the grids for now. However the localized sites near some of the ongoing wildfire will continue see restrictions. Updated grids with latest obs and trends, otherwise no major changes needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points, based on the latest trends in observations. Temperatures look to rise to above freezing at all locations by 10 am, so will let the current headline run its course. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 247 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 High pressure is currently poised from the Arklatex region to the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level low is cutting off near the Tennessee Valley, with another weaker cutoff low spiraling near the Texas/Oklahoma border. In between these two features, resides a ridge, currently centered across the Midwest. Clear skies and calm winds has allowed for the coldest night thus far this fall season across eastern Kentucky. Some valleys are already in the lower 20s, with another 4 hours or so of cooling to take place, yielding some upper teens in at least a few spots by dawn. Mainly clear skies will be seen today, as most of the cloud cover associated with the Tennessee Valley cutoff will remain southeast. Despite the cold start, highs will make it back into the lower 60s for most locations today. The Midwest ridge will break down tonight into Monday, with more troughiness culminating across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by the end of the short term. Tonight will not be as cold, although with drier dew points likely mixing down once again today, think that some valleys will make it into the 20s once again. Monday will feature a mostly sunny to partly cloudy day, with highs similar to today, although readings will be just a touch cooler in the east, where more clouds will reside. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday night) Issued at 304 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 The extended period should start off with a large trough of low pressure aloft parked over the eastern third of the CONUS. Since this system will be starved for moisture, we can expect nothing more than scattered cloud cover across the area as the trough pushes slowly off to the east Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure, mainly aloft at first, should begin displacing the aforementioned trough Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the ridge moves over our area, we can expect continued dry weather and a few clouds here and there through Friday. The next chance for rain across eastern Kentucky may not arrive until as late as Friday night, as a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold front approach the area. This issue with this part of the forecast will be the timing of the weather system. As of now the GFS and ECMWF models differ quite a bit in this regard, with the GFS having a much slower solution than the ECMWF. Both models do, however, depict a strong area of low pressure with plenty of moisture for precipitation production, and a rather cold air mass moving in behind it. Another feature of this area of low pressure would be its somewhat slow eastward movement as it strengthens during its eastward trek. This would allow any precipitation the system produces to linger across the area through early Sunday morning. Temperatures across the area should start out around normal, with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday expected to top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A gradual warm up is then expected for the end of the week, as winds shift to the south and southwest ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. In fact, we could see high temperatures topping out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday and Friday. The proof of the aforementioned cool down will likely be revealed on Saturday, with highs only expected to make it into the mid to upper 50s across the area, as a much colder air mass settles over the area behind our departed trough. Nightly lows should generally be in the 30s and 40s area wide during the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 VFR and light winds remains the story for most through the TAF period. There is some isolated smoke across the southeast KY this afternoon. Therefore will continue with a VIS restriction for smoke at LOZ. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on if this will clear out this evening. HRRR smoke product would show at least some elevated light smoke issues lingering in that area through the evening into the night. Right now will cutoff the MVFR VIS by 00Z, but this may need to be extended further particularly once the inversion sets up. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 122056 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 256 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 An upper level shear axis extending from NE TX to the Mid-Atlantic states is in the process of becoming a cut-off low just to our west. With the weak system to our west tonight models are all in agreement in keeping winds out of the NE/E. MODIS satellite imagery this afternoon was a good indicator of just how much smoke has made it into the area from the wildfires across N GA/E TN/W NC. For tonight one concern is the potential for reduced visibilities due to smoke from the wildfires. Observations from this morning only indicated a reduction down to 6-7 miles due to the smoke but this was only in Jackson and DeKalb counties. Unless we start to see more easterly winds in N GA/NE AL believe that the visibilities will be similar to this morning of 6-7 miles. Latest Air Quality forecast has portions of Jackson and DeKalb counties in a "Unhealthy for sensitive groups". It is recommended that people with asthma or are sensitive the reduced air quality limit their time outdoors this evening. Mostly clear skies tonight and generally light winds will allow for temps to drop into the upper 30s. .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 The system mentioned above begins to shift eastward into NW GA during the day Sunday. The latest guidance continued to indicate that the cut-off low would be able to advect some moisture back to the west up through central GA and guidance still generates some light rain with the moisture advection. Expect a gradual increase in cloud cover as moisture in the mid-levels spreads into the eastern half of the area. However, with the amount of dry air over the region and the center of the upper level system over AL/GA any precip that does form over central GA will remain well to our east. While we miss out on any precip, the good news is that with winds becoming westerly will help to clear out some of the smoke. We will remain under a broad trough with a few shortwaves moving across the region Monday and Tuesday. But dry air is forecast to continue with PWATS less than 0.5 inches and dewpoints in the 30s. So, the most we can expect with any of the shortwaves is a brief increase in cloud cover. Expect high temperatures to warm a degree or two from Sunday (upper 60s) to Monday (lower 70s). Overnight lows will be in the middle to upper 30s each night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 As the main trough axis deepens (trailing south from a surface/upper low moving east into the great lakes region) Monday night into Tuesday morning, an associated cool front will push east across the area. New runs are showing some very light showers being produced in southern/central Mississippi as the front pushes east Monday night. However, northern Alabama will likely not see the moisture return that may be seen further southwest, so not expecting any precipitation. Not much cooler air will follow behind the front. However, the departing front should keep highs in the mid to upper 60s to lower 70s in most locations on Tuesday. Longer range synoptic models continued to rebuild a strong upper level ridge behind this front and quickly move it eastward Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead to a warming trend both days. Highs in the lower 70s look reasonable on Wednesday. By Thursday, both models center this ridge over the Tennessee Valley and further amplify the ridge over the area. This should allow the 925 mb/850 mb temps to rise to between 15 to 18 degrees. High temperatures look to respond and jump into the mid 70s on Thursday. Long range models continue to develop a strong storm system over the midwestern U.S. Thursday night and into Friday. Latest GFS has slowed this system down (closer to previous ECMWF model run timing), as the upper ridge is stronger this run than previous runs with the GFS. If the approaching system slows down more due to the strong upper ridge, Friday's highs could climb into the mid 70s as well. However, the ridge looks too strong for any precipitation ahead of the front to affect the Tennessee Valley until Friday night into Saturday. Although, a strong upper level jet and a 30 kt 850 mb jet is progged by models, thunderstorms look very doubtful, as CAPE and instability aloft is non-existent. Given the strong forcing with this system, at least some isolated to scattered showers look possible though. Unfortunately, unless the upper ridging slows this system down more (allowing a longer period for moisture return), rain amounts will be very paltry (less than one half of an inch). && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2016 An upper level trough has become centered over the area based on latest satellite imagery. This has allowed a slight increase in wind speeds along and south of the TN River but speeds should decrease through the afternoon and into the evening hours. VFR conditions are forecast but smoke from wildfires in N GA/E TN will cause some haze. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...Stumpf SHORT TERM...Stumpf LONG TERM...KTW AVIATION...Stumpf For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 110929 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 329 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is high. Early morning temperatures were in the lower 40s, and we will not recover too much today due to steady cold air advection. Highs will only reach the upper 40s, despite mostly sunny skies. These are actually the normal high temperatures for this time of year. It will be another breezy day, especially this morning. There are strong winds ongoing right now around 500 to 1000 feet above the ground. These winds will mix down to the surface as gusts of 25 to possibly 30 mph starting mid morning. Winds and gusts will be highest through noon and then gradually taper off through the afternoon as high pressure noses into the area. MODIS satellite imagery shows lake surface temperatures around 12C. We need at least an 8C difference between the lake and 850mb to start seeing lake effect clouds, along with a decent fetch. These conditions will be met near southeast WI as winds turn to the north- northeast later this morning. Expect lake effect clouds over far southeast WI to linger through the evening before shifting farther south and dissipating. Tonight will be the coldest night in southern WI so far this season and most areas will see a hard freeze. We are not issuing frost or freeze headlines since we are well past the average time of year to see the first freezing temperatures. High pressure sliding through southwest and south central WI will help to create a strong inversion, calm wind, clear skies, and strong radiational cooling overnight. Lows will drop into the upper 20s for much of southern WI. I wouldn't be surprised to see some mid 20s toward Baraboo, Lone Rock, and areas toward central WI, close to the core of the high and in this dry air mass. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - Confidence...High Surface high south of WI will continue to shift southeast this period which will result in a sustained mild wsw flow with gradual warming of 850/925 temps. Bufkit column is parched so plenty of sunshine though breezy at times with a decent pressure gradient in place between the departed high and approaching Plains trough. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - Confidence...Medium Shortwave trough swings in from the northwest. Surface/850 trough also comes through with very little post frontal cooling. Some bump in 850 dews noted ahead of the surface/850 forcing features though overall column moistening not looking too impressive. If anything the NAM and GFS try to moisten up the low levels suggesting that if anything it would be a drizzle scenario, but overall depth of moisture not supportive of any POPS at this time. Will leave a dry forecast intact for now per Superblend guid. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium The pattern remains energized with another mid level trough axis swinging across the western Great Lakes region. The ECWMF shows a slightly stronger lead wave than the GFS. Then both show an elongated/sheared vort axis arriving later Tuesday or Tuesday night with the GFS keeping any of this energy more north. The GFS shows a dry scenario while the ECMWF shows shra potential. Will keep the small Superblend POPS to account for the wetter look of the ECMWF. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium Mid level ridge bumps back up across ahead of next trough moving out of the Rockies into the Plains. Surface ridge dominates Wednesday into Wednesday night and then shifts to the east on Thursday which sets up a return flow ahead of the developing Plains low pressure. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Winds are in the 30 to 40 knot range just above the surface early this morning. These winds will be able to mix down to the ground as gusts of 25 to 30 knots by mid morning. Highest gusts will be closest to Lake Michigan. Winds and gusts will gradually taper off during the early afternoon hours as high pressure noses in. Some lower VFR lake effect clouds should move into southeast WI by mid morning as well. There could be some MVFR at times. The main lake effect cloud band is expected to set up over northeast IL and clip southeast WI through early evening. A few sprinkles are possible. Inland areas should see some scattered VFR/MVFR clouds this morning, but full sunshine will return this afternoon. && .MARINE...Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan near southeast WI. Gusty north- northeast winds will build high waves today. Winds will diminish through the afternoon, and waves will subside from north to south this evening. I extended the small craft advisory south of the North Point Light until midnight based on expected lingering higher waves. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens once again across the area. Gusts to 25 knots are possible during this period. Offshore winds should keep high waves over the open waters. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 071615 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1015 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 .UPDATE... Deeper moisture arrives around midnight, so expect lower clouds to fill in across southern WI. There could be a few sprinkles with this, as the HRRR and NAMNest models are picking up on some light pre-frontal precip. The main round of rain will hold of until the front arrives from northwest to southeast between 2 am and 5 am. This will be a quick shot for rain and not amount to much. Models are trending a little slower with the arrival of the front. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... South winds ahead of an approaching cold front will gradually increase the moisture today, with the atmosphere saturating tonight. This will result in lower VFR cigs from late evening through early morning out ahead of the front, and then cigs down to IFR along and just behind the cold front that will be moving through southern Wisconsin late tonight. Expect a band of showers with the front. IFR ceilings should persist until around noon Tuesday, and then we can expect gradual improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR before clearing from west to east Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Mostly southerly winds expected today as high pressure remains over the NE CONUS and a cold front approaches from the northern Plains. This cold front is expected to sweep across the near shore waters late tonight and Tuesday morning. Colder air funneling southward over the relatively warmer Lake MI waters will allow wind gusts to likely reach 25 knots Tuesday afternoon and evening. A Small Craft Advisory may be issued this afternoon for this period. Lake surface temperature remains in the 50-55 degree range per recent MODIS imagery. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 141 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/ TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is high. A shortwave moving across south central Canada, will drop southeast across the Lake Superior and Wisconsin area early Tuesday morning. Upper level divergence, and 700 mb upward motion begins this afternoon and through the night. 850 mb temperatures cool a just a little today. As a result, expect it to be warm, but temperatures should be a few degrees cooler, especially as high clouds increase, along with a little increase in low level/mid moisture. A cold front moves across southern Wisconsin late tonight, with showers expected near the front. The GFS does not have any elevated CAPE, so will not include any thunderstorm mention in the forecast. Patchy fog mainly in river valleys and low areas, should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. With a bit more of a gradient, expect a little less fog than yesterday. TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...High The front will be exiting the southeast forecast area Tuesday morning. Models are in decent agreement now with the front timing, putting higher confidence in a few lingering showers early in the day. It should be dry by mid-morning though as high pressure begins to build in behind the departing system. Models are within a couple degrees of each other for high temps, but do differ for the afternoon. The GFS and NAM are quicker with the colder air, showing a cooling trend during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian hold off on the cooler temps aloft until evening. Generally split the temp differences for the afternoon hours. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High High pressure will move back in for Wednesday, then briefly give way to a passing trough on Thursday, before returning for the end of the week into the weekend. Still not seeing enough moisture and forcing with the trough to warrant pops, so opted to keep the forecast dry through the weekend. Temps will remain above normal Wed/Thu, but should return to around normal behind the trough Friday and Saturday. Southerly winds between the departing high and an approaching trough should push temps back to a few degrees above normal on Sunday. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Expect patchy IFR/LIFR ground fog, especially in river valleys and low areas. With a little more of a pressure gradient, expect a little less fog, that will dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. South winds ahead of an approaching cold front, will gradually increase the moisture today, with the atmosphere saturating tonight, resulting in lower cigs to IFR near a cold front that will be moving through southern Wisconsin late tonight. Expect a band of showers with the front. MARINE... South to Southwest winds will increase today and tonight with a tightening pressure gradient. A cold front will then push across lake Michigan around sunrise Tuesday. Winds will become north and gusty on Tuesday behind the cold front. North winds/waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 051952 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 255 PM CDT SAT NOV 5 2016 .TONIGHT AND SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...High. The weather pattern will remain the same through Sunday, so only expect subtle differences to the forecast when compared to the last two days. The high pressure ridge will drift toward southern WI a little more tonight, which means lighter winds just off the surface, which supports a stronger surface inversion and fog development. Based on model visibility and a small dewpoint depression, there is a pretty good chance for dense fog to develop across portions of southern WI, especially inland from Lake Michigan. We may need a dense fog advisory headline by later this evening. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - Forecast Confidence...High. A quiet start to the period as a large high pressure ridge continues to slide slowly east, away from the western Great Lakes. Upstream warm air and moisture advection should result in an increase in clouds on Monday. Primarily high clouds are expected so another pleasant day lies ahead with mild temperatures. May be some ground fog late Sunday night and early Monday but stronger boundary layer mixing should keep fog more patchy and visibilities higher. Hence, will hold off on introducing fog into this period. Short term guidance continue to come into better agreement on slightly more amplification to short wave trof passing across the northern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Southern extension of passing wave will interact with a narrow swath of precipitable water which increases to around 1 inch during the night. Brief period of enhanced synoptic forcing tied to right entrance region over southern WI. Hence enough moisture and lift in place to warrant continuing chance pops for -shra overnight. Mid-level drying returns quickly on brisk northwest winds on Tuesday, but lingering cyclonic flow and low level moisture should result in bkn- ovc cu field returning during the day. .EXTENDED PERIOD... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence...High. Fairly quiet weather can be expected this period with a trend toward colder, more seasonal temperatures by the weekend. Temperatures should remain above the seasonal average Wednesday and Thursday as upper level steering flow remains weakly northwest to zonal as large high pressure area extends from southwest CONUS into the Upper Midwest. Strong piece of short wave energy ejected from eastern Pacific long- wave trof will gain in strength and amplitude as it tracks east across southern Canada early in the extended period. Increasing amplitude will carry this short wave southeast across the GreatLakes Thursday night and Friday...along with accompanying surface cold front. Low to mid-level moisture appears sparse with this passing disturbance. No showers expected at this time. A surge of colder air will follow frontal passage across southern WI on Friday and Friday night. Medium range guidance in agreement for colder air to retreat east with some modification over the weekend. Never the less, looking at a much better chance for more widespread near or slightly below freezing temps Friday night and possibly Saturday night. Looking more likely that cooler, more seasonal conditions will be here to stay beginning the week of the 13th, but still no significant weather systems on the horizon. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...Expect areas of fog to develop tonight. There is a good chance for dense fog, primarily for areas inland from Lake Michigan. && .MARINE...Patchy inland fog is expected later tonight which may drift over to parts of the nearshore areas by sunrise. Recent MODIS imagery is showing lake surface temperatures in the lower 50s. With inland temperatures expected to climb into the upper 60s Sunday, expect a lake breeze to develop late Sun morning and afternoon over the near shore waters. A small craft advisory may be needed on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. $$ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 051559 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 .UPDATE... Forecast is on track for today, heading up to mid to upper 60s for highs. Plan on sunny skies and light southwest winds. Expect areas of fog tonight. There is a pretty good chance for dense fog to develop, so we will probably need a dense fog advisory headline by later this evening. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Expect areas of fog to develop tonight. There is a good chance for dense fog, primarily for areas inland from Lake Michigan. && .MARINE... Recent MODIS imagery measuring lake surface temperature in the lower 50s. With inland temperatures expected to climb into the lower to middle 60s, and decreasing boundary layer winds to less than 10 knots, expect a lake breeze to develop late this morning and afternoon over the near shore waters. The winds should switch back to the southwest tonight but back to the south to southeast again on Sunday. Patchy inland fog is expected later tonight which may carry over parts of the nearshore areas by sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is high. High pressure centered over the Ohio valley. Light southwest winds with a weak lake breeze by afternoon. Patchy dense fog early this morning and again Late tonight as winds should be a little lighter. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High High pressure centered to the east of the state will bring continued pleasant weather Sunday and Monday. Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium Low pressure is progged to drag a cold front through southern Wisconsin Monday night into early Tuesday. Models in general have come in with a bit deeper saturation as the front moves through, so have somewhat higher pops than previously. There are still uncertainties in timing of the front and strength of forcing though, so highest pops are just low end chance for now. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...High High pressure will be overhead Wednesday, briefly give way to a passing trough on Thursday, then return behind the the trough on Friday. Not seeing enough moisture and forcing with the trough to warrant pops, so opted to keep the forecast dry through the second half of the work week. Temps will still be a bit above normal Wed/Thu...but should return to around normal behind the trough on Friday. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Areas of ground fog early this morning with a few localized areas of LIFR, especially in river valleys. MARINE... High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley. Light southwest winds with a weak lake breeze by afternoon. MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz Sunday THROUGH Friday...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 030755 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build southward into the region tonight through early Friday. Hurricane Matthew may track along or offshore the southeast U.S. and mid-Atlantic coasts Thursday night through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...A few showers have been affecting ncntrl and northeast MD during the past couple of hrs, but these are now moving into the MD eastern shore and Delaware. Showers are also developing now over Charles county MD. Low clouds and/or fog have also been developing over eastern WV...nrn and cntrl VA. Fog is evident over the Shenandoah valley on the latest MODIS- Aqua nighttime microphysics product. Will monitor fog potential over the next svrl hrs to see whether a dense fog advzy may be needed or not. After morning fog burns and/or low clouds mix out, light NW flow will take place leading to mostly sunny skies east of the Blue Ridge and partly cloudy skies west. Subsidence will build in behind departing trof leading to a nice early fall day with temps in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...High pressure will begin to build southward into the area from northern New England tonight. A stratus layer may develop over southwest VA late tonight under a northeast flow. Increasing pres gradient/winds will likely prevent fog from forming. Sfc flow begins to turn more easterly Tue with low clouds possibly advecting from the east in the afternoon. Onshore flow strengthens Tue night into Wed which may result in low clouds and some drizzle along and east of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge mtns. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...High pressure will be in place across much of the Mid-Atlantic region and New England Thursday. Onshore flow will persist and low clouds...drizzle and fog are possible through Friday. Northeast flow and cloud cover will keep conditions near normal with max temps in the U60s/L70s through Saturday. Hurricane Matthew is expected to be move across the Bahamas at the end of the work week and continue northward this weekend. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the track of the hurricane as it moves north of the Bahamas this weekend. Please consult the National Hurricane Center for the most up to date forecasts regarding Hurricane Matthew. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...LIFR conditions possible at KCHO and KMRB early this morning. Conditions improve to VFR after 13Z. Stratus clouds possible again tonight in northeast flow with some cigs restrictions. Higher probs of MVFR/IFR conditions Tue night and early Wed as onshore flow deepens. Flight restrictions possible late this week as onshore flow persists. && .MARINE...Winds less than 10 kt through this evening, then begin to strengthen late tonight through Wed with SCA conditions possible beginning Tue afternoon which may persist through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...No coastal flooding expected through tonight. Increasing onshore flow Tue and Wed will likely result in minor coastal flooding at Straits Pt and Annapolis Tue night and Wed. Water levels may rise further at the end of the week as winds strengthen as Matthew moves along or offshore the southeast U.S. and mid-Atlc coasts. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...HSK/LFR MARINE...HSK/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 250830 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium. Will continue Flash Flood Watch across Sauk and Marquette counties due to susceptibility to any additional rainfall today. Short term guidance in good agreement on surge of column moisture this morning across southern WI as precipitable water increases one quarter to one half inch, approaching 2 inches by afternoon. Upstream front now located in western MN expected to slowly progress ewd and move into wrn CWA by late am, and exit ern CWA by early evening. Best chance for more numerous showers and storms will be this afternoon as front and low level frontogenetical forcing moves thru srn WI. However wl keep in lower pops for more showers this morning as mid- level moisture increases and upstream weak mid-level short wave clips srn wi. Expect anywhere from a tenth to six tenths of an inch as showers and storms expected to be more progressive over srn WI compared to upstream overnight scenario, but may still be more localized higher amounts so continuing Flash Flood Watch. Marginal Risk warranted as bulk shear to increase to 35 to 40 kts ahead of passing cold front while MUCape reaches around 1000 j/kg. Sfc dewpoints likely to increase into the upper 60s this aftn, pooling along cold front. Expect convection to end rapidly during the early evening behind front as drier, more stable conditions spread across srn WI. .MONDAY - Confidence...Medium The surface low is proggd to be situated north of Lake Superior. A much cooler and drier airmass will be set up as 1000/500 millibar thicknesses drop to near 546DM. The 925 temps will be are coldest on the GFS...dropping to 7-8C by days end with the NAM and ECMWF around 10-11c. West winds will make it feel even cooler. Some of the MOS guidance suggests some parts of the northern CWA may be lucky to hit 60 for daytime highs. A strongly cyclonic 500 millibar flow will become set up. The first vort lobe passes through in the morning with the overall circulation becoming entrenched across the Upper Midwest. Given this regime expect cloud cover to be fairly widespread with cyclonic flow aloft and low level thermal trough. For now will keep any shra chances across the northern CWA but may need to expand these POPS further south but will keep it in the north at the moment. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Medium The models are in pretty decent agreement on waffling this 500 millibar low/expansive circulation slowly south through Tuesday evening and then eastward to the eastern Lakes region/Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The low level thermal trough will continue to amplify with 925 temps dropping to 5-8c this period. There will be an increased chance of showers across mainly the northern and eastern CWA as the surface/850 lows shift sse from Lake Superior. This will set up lower level forcing in combination with the mid level cyclonic flow. So the models are generating mainly light precip amounts...mainly a tenth or two. The ECWMF shows a little more enhanced low level troughing later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. .THURSDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium The GFS and GEM solutions show the 500 millibar low across the eastern Lakes and Ohio valley with the ECMWF showing much less progression further south and west. In fact it would keep at least our southern CWA on the northwest periphery of the expansive circulation. Meanwhile the GFS and GEM has rising heights for us with surface ridging dominating. Even the ECMWF solution still keeps us dry though a bit more of a ne wind with a tighter pressure gradient. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - Confidence...Low The model divergence becomes more pronounced as it relates to the positioning of the 500 millibar low. The ECMWF continues a trend towards retrogression in contrast the more progressive scenario of the GFS and GEM. The ECMWF drifts the low back towards lower MI for Saturday and this results in shra being wrapped back into srn WI. The GFS and GEM show the high dominating. At this time the Superblend POPS are leaning towards the dry solutions, and will stick with that route for the time being. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Thickening clouds likely to spread eastward this morning with the best chance for showers and a few storms affecting TAF sites from late morning through the afternoon. Cigs should be mainly VFR however may drop to MVFR with any showers or storms. Better chance for lower cigs late tonight and Monday as core of coldest air settles over southern WI in tight cyclonic flow. && .MARINE...Expect increasing south to southeast winds this morning as pressure gradient tightens ahead of approaching cold front. Recent MODIS imagery and nearby buoys measure near shore lake surface water temperature in the upper 50s to lower 60s while warmer sfc water in the lower 70s remain offshore. Will continue Small Craft Advisory today and push start time to mid-morning from Port Washington north as gusts exceeding 22 knots should start to be felt at Sheboygan lakeshore later this morning along with building waves. Counting on cooler lakeshore waters to prevent stronger gusts from mixing to lake surface farther south today, so wl hold off on expanding Small Craft Advisory south, however will be close and caution is advised. Breezy west to northwest winds will develop late tonight and continue through Tuesday as much cooler air settles over the Great Lakes behind passing cold front. Tight pressure gradient over Lake Michigan as low pressure passes to the north wl result in the gusty winds. Wind gusts will get close to Gale levels on Monday, however confidence in persistent gusts exceeding 33 knots low at this point. If confidence increases, the first Gale Watch of the season may be issued later today for Monday into Monday night. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening for WIZ046-056. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 180156 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 856 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 .UPDATE...Stratocumulus deck over west central WI continued to shrink and dissipate through the early evening as only a few patches of sct-bkn around 4k feet remain. With a moderate overnight inversion expected and temperatures falling a few degreees below the crossover temperature, need to add at least patchy fog mention to the late night. Lowered temperatures in a few locations as well. Lingering thermal trof and weak passing mid-level short wave may cause some cloud redevelopment but low levels do dry out during the late night, adding to a better chance of fog development. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Stratocumulus deck continued to shrink and dissipate through the early evening. Only a few patches of sct-bkn around 4k feet remain in the vicinity. Thermal trof and weak 5H wave does pass across srn WI late tonight into early Sunday which may generate more patchy clouds during the late night. However, low levels begin to dry out later in the night, so thinking some patchy fog may develop and affect several taf sites late tonight. For now due to uncertainty, wl keep the visibility restriction in the MVFR category. && .MARINE...Recent MODIS imagery showed upwelling of colder sub- surface water has taken place over the past day or so. Lake surface temps have fallen into the 50s. A weak pressure gradient is expected across southeast WI and lower Lake MI on Sunday. The combination of the weak pressure gradient and a tighter thermal gradient should result in a better chance for a lake breeze to develop near the lake shore by Sunday afternoon. Hence went with more SE winds. && .BEACHES...The 2016 Beach Hazard season on Lake Michigan will end tomorrow, September 18th. The last Recreational Beach Forecast for beaches along Lake Michigan from Sheboygan county to Kenosha county will be issued around 5 pm September 18th. The National Weather Service Beach Hazard Program will return in May 2017, shortly before the Memorial Day weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High The northern portion of high pressure will build into southern Wisconsin tonight, then slide southeastward a bit on Sunday. Should see skies eventually turn mostly clear this evening into tonight as the high builds in and daytime heating is lost. Should see a lot of sunshine then on Sunday. Could see a little fog develop tonight, the best chance in low lying areas such as the Wisconsin River valley. Seems like just enough wind in the lower levels to keep widespread fog from forming. Temps tonight and Wednesday will remain a few degrees above normal. Sunday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence medium. Swly flow and low to middle level warm advection is expected Sun nt into Mon. This is in response to a 120 kt wly jet stream becoming established along the US and Canadian border. The nose of the strong upper jet will drive a strong shortwave trough across the nrn Plains and nrn Great Lakes. The strongest surge of thetae advection will be Mon morning followed by the gradual passage of the cold front for the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms will be possible with the thetae advection but more favored storm organization will be along the cold front. MLCAPEs are expected to climb to 500-1000 joules along the cold front. Expect the initiation to be near the WI and IL border with at least scattered coverage. The Marginal Risk by SPC looks good given the deep layer shear of 40-45 kts. Above normal temps will continue for the early week with lower to middle 80s on Mon just ahead of the cold front. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence medium. A low amplitude, but broad upper ridge will shift from the nrn High Plains to the Great Lakes from Wed to Sat in response to a large upper trough moving from the wrn USA to the nrn High Plains. This results in a warm front nosing into srn WI on Wed and becoming stalled for the remainder of the week. Thus relatively warm and humid conditions along with good chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. The cold frontal passage will be Sat or Sat nt. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... Could see MVFR ceilings try and sneak into the northwest this evening into tonight. High pressure will build overhead tonight, so not out of the question to see some fog develop later in the night. Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail through Sunday under high pressure. MARINE... Winds will be lighter under high pressure Sunday. Southwest winds could approach Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of approaching low pressure. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MBK TONIGHT/Sunday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Gehring  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 131430 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift east from the northern Mid-Atlantic coast rest of today. A mainly dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night. High pressure returns to the area through Friday before a cold front crosses the area Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low level SWly flow will bring mid to upper teen 850mb temps today with temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday...maxima 85 to 90F. Less cloud cover expected tonight with valley/ground fog possible. Warmer with lows 65 to 70 due to a strengthening Sly flow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... H85 temps rise to 18-20C and sfc winds become westerly ahead of cdfnt moving through the eastern Great Lks and New England states. MOS guidance looks too cool and have used a model trend for MaxT Wed. Expecting temps to reach the mid 90s with record highs likely at DCA and IAD. Cdfnt will be moving through the area during the evening and have kept a slight chance (20% POP) for MD counties along the Mason- Dixon line. High pressure builds Thu through Fri with temperatures at least 10 degs cooler Thu. Low clouds expected to develop behind front Thu and Thu night with some very light precip over the Blue Ridge mountains due to upslope flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will be located over New England on Friday, with upper ridging moving overhead. A light onshore wind combined with the low level thermal trough axis passing through may mean Friday is the coolest day of the week (and dry), as highs may stay below 80F for a large portion of the area. The high will move farther east Saturday as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes. Am thinking Saturday remains dry, with the best chance for any storms over the western terrain where heights will be lower and there will be a SE upslope component to the low level flow. It's also possible pre-frontal convection from the west approaches during the evening or overnight. Otherwise, increasing temperatures can be expected. For Sunday-Monday, model spread begins to increase significantly in how to handle the approaching cold front, upper level energy, and possible interaction with moisture along the southeast coast. The 00Z ECMWF is flatter with the upper flow and quicker with the front, whereas the 00Z GFS develops a closed low at 500mb, a wave along the front, and a slower passage on Monday. Therefore, the forecast will call for chances of showers and storms through this time period. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through Monday. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through Wed night. Southerly flow around 10 kt rest of today. Winds shift west Wednesday gusting around 15 kt ahead of a dry cold front that crosses Wednesday night. NWly flow gusts around 20 knots Thursday. MVFR/IFR cigs possible Thu and especially Thu night due to onshore flow behind fropa. There is potential for MVFR clouds due to onshore flow Friday and Saturday mornings, mainly at IAD/MRB/CHO. && .MARINE... South winds 10 to 15 kt through this evening with high pressure offshore. Winds expected to strengthen Wed night with SCA conditions likely Thu through Fri morning. High pressure will move off the coast Friday into Saturday. Onshore flow Friday will become southerly on Saturday. Winds may approach small craft advisory levels by late in the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... MODIS and VIIRS True color images from yesterday revealed that significant drying has occurred across northern VA and north central MD especially in Washington, Frederick and western Loudoun counties. Record high temperatures likely Wed with Rh's dropping into the low twenties as winds become westerly. Red flags conditions are not expected since winds are expected to remain below criteria, but an elevated fire weather threat will exist due to low humidities and drying fuels. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light south flow has raised water levels about one foot above normal. No coastal flooding is expected with this lesser high tide during the day today (though Straits Pt and Annapolis will be close), but is expected for sensitive locations for the preferred high tide cycle tonight. && .CLIMATE... Unseasonably hot weather will return to the area briefly on Wednesday. Here is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures for September 14th. Washington DC area (Ronald Reagan National Airport, DCA) Record daily high temperature: 94 (1981, 1980 and 1915) Record daily high minimum temperature: 75 (2008 and 1961) Baltimore MD area (Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, BWI) Record daily high temperature: 94 (1931) Record daily high minimum temperature: 74 (1915) Dulles International Airport VA (IAD) Record daily high temperature: 95 (1998) Record daily high minimum temperature: 71 (2008) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR NEAR TERM...BAJ/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LFR MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LFR FIRE WEATHER...lfr/baj TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...baj CLIMATE...lwx  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 301509 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .UPDATE... Shower and thunderstorm activity over northern Illinois is weakening and moving off to the east this morning. Our southern forecast area looks to avoid any chances of rainfall this morning, so removed chance PoPs for our southern counties through this morning. Current radar shows evidence of a pre-frontal boundary ahead of the effective cold front expected to act as the mechanism for shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. For now, kept slight chance PoPs in the forecast across our forecast area due to this pre-frontal boundary. The 30.13z HRRR model isn't progging any shower/thunderstorm activity until 17z today, so will maintain chances of thunderstorms in the forecast for the afternoon. This activity may be out of the area by the evening if the current HRRR run holds. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Mainly VFR conditions, with some low-end MVFR/IFR cigs, especially from the MSN TAF site and points west. Any vsby reductions from this morning should mix-out as the day goes on. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon as a cold front sweeps through S WI. Confidence is not high that all TAF sites will see TS, so will likely maintain VCTS through the afternoon. Approximate timing for thunderstorms looks to be between 17z and 00z today. Look for a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds for eastern locations as the cold front moves through, with a brief period of 15 to 20 kt winds. && .MARINE... Light wind flow regime to continue today, however less onshore winds expected. West to southwest winds will turn more south to southeast for a time as lake breeze develops today. However outflow boundary from early morning convection continues to move southeast and will affect Sheboygan to Port Washington marine zone, and possible next marine zone southward for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Besides possibly setting off a shower or storm, the outflow boundary will result in an hour or two of more west to northwest winds before becoming more south to southeast once again. Recent MODIS imagery measured lake surface temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over most of the near shore waters, which is about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than over the weekend. Hence less threat for dense fog. Main cold front over northern WI will sweep thru near shore waters tonight. Winds will abruptly shift to the north to northeast and increase. RAP and NAM now showing a 1-3 hour period of gusty north to northeast winds exceeding 22 knots overnight across northern Marine zones, while latest GFS soundings not as windy. For now, planning on holding off on Small Craft Advy and think Marine Weather Statements may be needed for the overnight brief period of gusty winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Band of showers and storms sagging south through nw WI and east- central MN ahead of pre-frontal surface trough in region of weak 925 and 850 mb frontogenesis and differential CVA ahead of a vorticity maximum south of main short wave trough tracking east across nrn Ontario. The strongest cells in east-central MN are riding the outflow boundary south-southwest along corridor of richer lower- level moisture pooling ahead of the 925 mb trough within a pocket of modest mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km. The showers/storms to the east are diminishing as outflow races out ahead with only an isolated shower or storm quickly popping up and dying along the boundary. Other showers and storms are re-firing over northern Illinois ahead of a weak vort max/MCV within region of nearly stationary moisture convergence and moving east just south of the border. A few light showers within region of differential CVA with this feature are crossing western sections of the CWA. Will have slight chance/low chance PoPs in the southern forecast area this morning to account for the potential of the southern band of showers/storms in IL slipping into southern WI. Then chance PoPs this afternoon with the weak forcing along the cold front, tapering off from northwest to southeast this evening as the front moves through. Could see some gusty north-northeast winds along the lake as hi-res models indicate the front moving a bit faster down the lake versus inland, with a brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface right behind the front. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium to High Cold advection regime sets up Wednesday into Thursday as low level thermal trough becomes established across the area. We will be situated on western side of evolving mid/upper level trough across the NE US. The NAM and GEM are more pronounced with a glancing shortwave riding sewd in this flow while the GFS and ECMWF keep this wave further east. 925 temps will settle into the low to mid teens celsius. So a much cooler and more comfortable/drier airmass this period. The mid level ridge axis starts to slide across WI on Friday. SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium to High The surface high shifts well to the east though the expansive anticyclonic influence lingers into srn WI. So another quiet day in the works. The mid level ridge shifts east as well so we start to see a more southwest flow at 500 millibars. The 925 temps bounce back a bit due to a switch to a more southerly low level trajectory. SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium The southerly low level flow strengthens further with 925 temps rising into the low 20s celsius. The 500 millibar flow remains southwest with the GFS is a bit more robust on the shortwave activity riding through. Other models are weaker with this feature and with a track more to our northwest. Primary cyclogenesis and frontal convergence remains well to our west. While core of strongest 850 jet remains across IA/ern MN and nw WI there is an eastward extension of this jet with some moist advection and the wave that suggests the Superblend pops are onto something for our western CWA so will leave them as is for now. LABOR DAY - Confidence...Low Differences arise with the GFS building ridge axis north keeping things less progressive on the shortwave energy front. meanwhile the ECMWF shows things moving along with frontal system and band of convection. The GFS implies a more east/west oriented frontal boundary laying across central WI with still some convective chances here but this scenario would suggest more scattered activity while the ECMWF solution shows more widespread shra/tsra with the cold frontal passage. Given the range of solutions will stick with the Superblend guidance for now. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Mid level cloud deck has limited extent of fog coverage overnight and have adjusted TAFs for a more optimistic vsby forecast in the near term. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast, though expect scattered showers and storms to develop along a weak cold front this afternoon and evening, pushing southeast of the forecast area between 09Z and 12Z Wednesday. Will keep pcpn mention as vicinity for now, though MVFR cigs/vsbys with any showers/storms that reach TAF sites. Looking for a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds at far eastern locations with cold front moving a bit faster down Lake Michigan versus inland, with a brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface right behind the front. MARINE...Looking at potential of a few showers or thunderstorms slipping north into the southern marine zones this morning, but scattered showers and storms will hold off until this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops through the region. Looking for a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds with cold front moving a bit faster down Lake Michigan versus inland, with a brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface right behind the front. This will build wave heights to 2 to 4 feet by Wednesday morning. North winds and waves will approach Small Craft Advisory levels Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...JTS/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 291657 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1157 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 .UPDATE... Scattered showers with middle to high clouds continue to develop to the southwest of the area, and push toward the far western counties. Weak differential cyclonic vorticity advection and some weak 850 mb moisture pooling helping generate these showers. These may hold together enough to make it into the far western and southwestern parts of the area into this afternoon. Added some POPs to these areas during this period. Enough mean layer CAPE should develop to bring a few thunderstorms as well. Outflow boundary from storms to the north also pushing southward toward the area. This was helping produce some showers to the north, but not much development has been seen in the past hour. Will watch this for additional isolated shower/storm development into this afternoon in the northern counties. Middle to high clouds may continue to push east across the southern and central portions of the area this afternoon. Not much confidence here with trends, though the 500 mb relative humidity fields on models do show these clouds hanging around the southern half of the area into tonight. Will add more clouds to the south and central portions of the area during this time. This may affect highs this afternoon in those areas, so lowered temperatures a few degrees. Wood && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Middle to high clouds should spread across a good portion of the area this afternoon into tonight. May see scattered to broken diurnal cumulus development as well, in case the higher clouds do not make it all the way across the area. An isolated shower or storm may affect Madison this afternoon, though not enough confidence to mention in TAFs at this time. Light east to southeast winds are expected. Small chances for showers/storms are forecast for tonight, with a better chance Tuesday into Tuesday evening with a cold front passing southeast through the area. Will carry mainly VFR category ceilings and visibilities into Tuesday, with a possible vicinity thunder mention Tuesday afternoon. Any storms should be scattered in nature, with brief heavy rain and MVFR/IFR visibilities possible. May see light fog later tonight into early Tuesday morning, with light winds and a moist airmass lingering. Presence of middle to high clouds may limit dense fog chances to low lying areas. Winds will become southwest to west on Tuesday, remaining rather light. Wood && .MARINE... Recent MODIS imagery from Sunday continued to show the effect of recent upwelling of cooler waters in the nearshore waters. MODIS estimated lake surface temperatures mostly in the low to mid 60s, while mid-lake temperatures were measured in the low to mid 70s. Light wind regime will continue through tonight. Onshore winds of mostly 5 to 10 knots are expected today, becoming offshore tonight. Lingering warm, humid air over cooler near shore waters should continue to produce patchy fog and haze until cold front passes through Tuesday night. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. A moderate zonal upper flow extends across Wisconsin today with a weak ridge trying to briefly build into the south toward evening. Weak upper divergence this afternoon and into tonight. Little in the way of any 700 mb upward motion until later tonight. Southern Wisconsin in in the northern fringe of a mid level ridge with an 850 mb ridge across the southern Great Lakes. Weak 850/700 mb winds. 700 mb RH remains low but does increase late tonight, especially south. 850 mb dewpoints are around 15 Celsius south and west of Madison but only around 3 Celsius near Lake Michigan. As a result there is a tight gradient of Zero to 1 km CAPE this afternoon from around 1100 Joules/kg along the Illinois border and west of Madison to less than 150 Joules/KG near Sheboygan. Patchy dense fog is possible, but more clouds and a weak wind has limited a lot of the fog to mainly northeast areas. Any dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan. However the GFS has a cap around 20 Joules/kg just below 850 mb with fairly dry air above. RAP soundings have the cap weakening. Surface based CAPE is around 2200 Joules/kg, so an isolated thunderstorm is possible in the high CAPE region, but lack of forcing will limit the possibility. There will be a small chance of thunderstorms tonight as upper forcing increases a little along with column moistening and elevated CAPE is around 1000 Joules/kg. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium Warm and humid airmass will be in place ahead of frontal boundary dropping in from the north. Mid level flow will be from the northwest with no pronounced shortwave within the flow. However the 250 jet strengthens a bit just to our north with some divergence noted with this jet segment that is proggd to be situated ahead of the mid/upper level trough axis. Low level forcing will contribute to a good deal of this lift with the absence of the mid level shortwave. ECMWF MLCAPE progd to rise to near 1000 j/kg. 0-6km Bulk shear and 700/500 lapse rates are not impressive. However the instability combined with the surface/850 lift should be enough to get some storms going with SPC having the CWA in a Marginal Risk at this time. Still some uncertainty on convective evolution and timing with various solutions in this regard. Quite the disparity in the MOS POPs as well with the NAM showing a dry bias and the GFS a wet one. Will use the Superblend approach for now in the handling of the POPs. The cooler post-frontal airmass arrives later Tuesday night as winds turn decidedly from the north and northeast with some gustiness expected esp in the eastern CWA in closer proximity to Lake Michigan. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium A cool pattern sets up with srn WI situated on western periphery of large scale upper trough across the eastern Lakes/NE US. Low level thermal trough showing some chilly temps at 850/925. In fact, seeing some single digit celsius readings at 850 Wednesday night into Thursday. Given the warm lake waters and the cooler 850 temps seeing some delta t values into the teens so at least supportive of a bit more cloud cover. For now will keep any mention of lake effect sprinkles/shra out of forecast, but something to monitor for later Wednesday night into Thursday when combo of favorable onshore traj overlaps with peak min values within low level thermal trough. By Friday the cool starts to ease with 588Dm mid level ridge sliding across. SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium Appears that the influence of the mid level ridge will hold with a return flow setting up in the low levels. The progs are showing a southerly flow that results in further modification of the low level thermal profile. SUNDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium Mid level ridge axis shifts to the east of WI with a southwest regime taking hold. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a negative tilted shortwave traversing western/northern WI with some DCVA affecting the CWA. The 00z ECMWF keeps precip to our west with the wave while the 00z GFS shows this spreading into the northwest CWA. Will retain the Superblend approach which shows the better potential in the northwest CWA. Southerly low level flow strengthens further with 925 temps rising to near 20c. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...With a bit more surface pressure gradient than last night, that is keeping surface winds in the 5 knot range in the west, and some high clouds, widespread dense fog formation is still uncertain. Some dense fog is beginning to develop in the northeast with lesser surface winds. Should see IFR/LIFR conditions in northeast areas and patchy LIFR in river valleys elsewhere until 14-15Z. VFR conditions expected after the fog lifts through the end of the forecast. Scattered cumulus around 4 thsd ft this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon over south central Wisconsin and across the forecast area tonight. MARINE...Light easterly winds and a moist boundary layer brings prospects for fog back to the nearshore waters early this morning. Web cams are not showing much fog at this time near shoreline. Will keep mention of areas of fog but no marine fog advisory at this time. Winds veer to the southeast...today...then south and southwest late tonight with the approach of a surface trough. Wind speeds and wave heights will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wood/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 282037 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .TONIGHT AND MONDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium. Mainly scattered diurnal cumulus should linger until sunset, with light easterly winds. Any convection to the south and southwest of the forecast area will remain in those areas into this evening. High pressure will slide slowly to the east tonight into Monday. Decoupling winds and dew points remaining in the 60s should lead to another good chance for fog later tonight into Monday morning, with dense fog possible. Went with areas of fog, with patchy dense fog, in the forecast for later tonight into early Monday morning. More widespread dense fog is possible during this period, with not a whole lot changing from last night. May see some low stratus development with the fog as well. A headline may be needed by later shifts for dense fog later tonight into early Monday morning. It may take awhile during the morning hours for the fog and any low stratus to dissipate across portions of the area. Things should become partly sunny by the afternoon, with some diurnal cumulus development in the warm and humid airmass. Went with highs in the mid 80s inland, with mid 70s to around 80 lakeside. Any convection Monday afternoon should remain south and southwest of the area, as there is not much in the way of forcing for upward vertical motion over the forecast area. Some uncertainty here, but left the forecast dry for now. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium. Focus of this period on small chance for convection developing ahead and along cold front that will be moving through southern WI Tue aftn/eve. Column moisture will remain in place until the front moves through, with precipitable water values remaining 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Synoptic scale forcing remains weak Monday night through Tuesday night. Thinking best chance for convection will be Tuesday into early Tue evening when some increase in upper level divergence affects southern WI due to strengthening right entrance region of upper jet. 0-6km bulk shear to remain weak, below 20 kts, however Cape likely to increase to over 1500 j/kg. Some concern over weakly channeled vorticity spreading into southern WI later Monday night at the same time as some weak low level moisture flux convergence in the area. Added schc pops west of Madison for late in the night. Drier and less humid air will settle in late Tue night and Wed behind departing cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Wednesday. High temps likely to remain in the 70s on Wednesday. .EXTENDED PERIOD... WEDENSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium to High. Good consistency and agreement in Medium Range guidance showing more amplified weather pattern developing mid-week and persisting into at least the start of the holiday weekend. Amplifying longwave troffing over eastern Pacific and western CONUS will move slowly eastward later in the week. Downstream blocking ridge will expand into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes which will result in dry and comfortable conditions for much of this extended period. A reinforcing push of cooler air in strengthening northwest flow will drop 925h temps into the 12 to 16C range on Thu and Fri. Pending sunshine, daytime temps may only peak in the low to mid 70s both days, with warmer temps returning over the weekend. A few low spots may fall below 50 Thursday night. Tropical system still expected to affect southeast CONUS slowing down steering level pattern change across Upper Midwest over the weekend. Hence upstream ejection of mid-level short wave from long wave trof delayed in helping to flatten ridge and may not bring a chance for precipition to southern WI until Sat night or Sunday. However, noticed 12z ECMWF not nearly as amplified with this feature crossing FL late in the week. Will watch other medium range guidance to see if this trend continues. Enjoy the great weather this upcoming week! && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... Scattered diurnal cumulus should dissipate by early evening across TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail for a time this evening, with light winds. Another round of fog, with dense fog possible, should occur by later this evening into Monday morning. High pressure moving slowly east of the area will bring light/calm winds once again, with a moist airmass lingering. Visibilities below alternate minimums, down to 1/2 to 1 mile, seem reasonable between 06Z and 14Z Monday. It may begin earlier than that. 1/4 mile or less visibilities are possible with dense fog, but may leave out of 00Z TAFs for now, until better handle on timing and areal extent is attained. May also see low stratus develop with the fog, with very low ceilings near airport minimums. Some uncertainty here as well, so will keep any low clouds scattered for now. Once the fog and low stratus mix out by late morning on Monday, the rest of the day should be VFR category, with scattered to broken diurnal cumulus cloud development. Light southeast to south winds are expected. && .MARINE... Nearshore waters will remain in a light wind regime through Monday. Moist air over the cool nearshore waters will result in periods of fog, possibly into Monday night. Best shot will be later tonight into Monday morning, and again Monday night. MODIS satellite imagery of sea surface temperatures still show mid to upper 50s lake temperatures in the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan along the Sheboygan and Ozaukee County shoreline, with lower to mid 60s south of there. Given the mid 60s dew points expected later tonight into Monday morning, there should be fog, with patchy dense fog. More widespread dense fog may develop, and a headline may be needed in later forecasts. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. $$ TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...Wood MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Kavinsky  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 281554 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .UPDATE... Area of low stratus and fog still hanging around from west to east across the central portions of the forecast area. This should continue to slowly erode and mix out into the early afternoon hours, as daytime heating continues. May still see some scattered to broken diurnal cumulus development, though not confident in this occurring. High pressure will slide east across the area today, then slowly to the east tonight into Monday. Decoupling winds and dew points remaining in the 60s should lead to another good chance for fog later tonight into Monday morning, with dense fog possible. Will continue to evaluate potential, and the need for a headline. Easterly winds are expected this afternoon near Lake Michigan, which will keep temperatures there a little cooler than inland. As long as low clouds mix out early this afternoon, highs should get into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, per 925 mb temperatures. Wood && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Fog and low stratus clouds should gradually mix out by early afternoon across Madison, Waukesha and Milwaukee, with VFR conditions expected this afternoon. Winds will become easterly at the eastern sites this afternoon, and southeast at Madison. May see scattered to broken diurnal cumulus develop, but uncertainty exists with this occurring. Another round of fog, with dense fog possible, should occur by later this evening into Monday morning. High pressure moving slowly east of the area will bring light/calm winds once again, with a moist airmass lingering. Visibilities below alternate minimums, down to 1/2 to 1 mile, seem reasonable between 06Z and 14Z Monday. It may begin earlier. 1/4 mile or less visibilities are possible with dense fog, but may leave out of 18Z TAFs for now, until better handle on timing and areal extent is attained. May also see low stratus develop with the fog, with very low ceilings near airport minimums. Once the fog and low stratus mix out by middle to late morning on Monday, the rest of the day should be VFR category with scattered to broken diurnal cumulus cloud development. Wood && .MARINE... Nearshore waters will remain in a light wind regime through Monday. Moist air over the cool nearshore waters will result in periods of fog, possibly into Monday night. Enough breaks in the clouds last night to get a MODIS snapshot of the lake surface temps around 07z. Lake surface temps at the time were mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with a cool spot in the lower 50s offshore of the Ozaukee/Sheboygan county line. Surface dew points wl remain in the 60s, resulting in areas of fog. Light and variable winds will turn light onshore late this morning and early afternoon, and then veer back to predominantly offshore tonight. The fog may become dense tonight. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is medium. A strong shortwave just north of Lake Superior will move east northeast with Southern Wisconsin in the right entrance region of the weakening upper jet as it moves off into southeast Canada. Then a weak zonal flow extends across southern Wisconsin tonight. Little in the way of any 700 mb upward motion until towards sunrise in areas northwest of Madison. 700 mb west winds diminish this morning and remain light through tonight as a weak 700/850 mb ridge builds back across southern Wisconsin. 700 mb RH remains low but does increase a little north areas late tonight. Dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings show zero to 1 km CAPE increases to around 700 Joules/kg this afternoon, but has a cap around 850 mb, along with dry air above the cap. Therefore do not expect much potential for showers. limited moisture below the cap and this dries tonight. As a result expect fog potential again tonight. MONDAY - Confidence...Medium Surface high shifts a bit to the east into the eastern Lakes. 850 high proggd vcnty of se WI or ne IL. Light wind regime likely to allow for some morning fog. 591DM broad mid level ridging is expected. So will keep POPS quiet...in the single digits per MOS. 925 temps rise just a smidge into the lower 20s celsius with a better hint of a return flow. TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium Surface/850 boundary expected to focus a chance of shra/tsra. Mid level flow becomes more cyclonic from the northwest though better vorticity resides to the northeast and southwest of the CWA. So expect low level convergence acting upon instability axis ahead of the front to be the primary focus mechanism for convection. Main cool push arrives Tuesday night as 925 winds turn northwest and eventually northeast. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium Shaping up to be a rather quiet with dominating surface high. Low level thermal trough will be in place with 925 temps both Thursday and Friday in the low to mid teens celsius. Surface high shifts east on Saturday to allow for a return flow and a moderation in the 925 thermal pattern to the upper teens or lower 20s celsius. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Widespread IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus expected early this morning. Vsbys will improve to VFR with morning mix-out by mid/late morning. Winds will be light through the period with low-level moisture bringing another good chance for fog by midnight tonight into Monday morning. MARINE...Will see areas of fog as high low-level moisture moves over the cooler waters of the lake trough early morning. Expect light east winds by afternoon. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wood/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 261709 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .UPDATE... Extensive area of middle to high clouds continues to slide northeast into the area. This should continue this afternoon into this evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected. There may be some diurnal cumulus in the sunnier areas as well. Lake breeze already occurring around Milwaukee and south, and will continue this afternoon. Scattered showers continue to fall apart as they approach the area from the southwest, as there is a good amount of dry air below 10000 feet above ground level. Thus, any shower activity should hold off this afternoon. 12Z model runs continue to differ somewhat with the location of the low level jet nose and focused warm air advection tonight into Saturday morning. The NAM is the furthest to the northwest of the area, with the Canadian focused over the area, and the GFS between them. All models do bring some QPF across the area later tonight into Saturday morning. The mesoscale models are showing a similar trend with bringing a round of showers and storms through the area later tonight into early Saturday morning. Thus, will continue the higher end POPs for this period, perhaps raising them up to categorical in at least the western counties. Precipitation chances Saturday afternoon are still rather murky, as it will depend on clouds clearing the area after the warm front moves to the north. There will be modest deep layer bulk shear with weak to modest mean layer CAPE, assuming some clearing of the clouds. There will still be some upper divergence from the right rear quadrant of the 250 mb jet streak lingering, and some of the mesoscale models develop isolated to scattered convection in or west of the area later in the afternoon. Marginal severe risk and marginal heavy rainfall risk exists in parts of the area Saturday. For now, will continue chance POPs for the afternoon hours. Wood && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening across TAF sites. Lake breeze this afternoon will turn winds east to southeast at Milwaukee and Kenosha, probably reaching Waukesha as well. Light and variable winds are expected at Madison. Some diurnal cumulus is possible in the sunnier areas this afternoon. Otherwise, middle to high clouds will gradually thicken through the afternoon and evening. Should see a period of on and off showers and thunderstorms later tonight into early Saturday morning across TAF sites, as warm and moist air pushes north into the area with a warm front. Should see MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times, down to around 1000 feet and 3 miles. Winds will become easterly by later tonight, gradually veering south to southeast on Saturday. Should see a lull in the precipitation later Saturday morning into the afternoon. May see more scattered showers and storms later Saturday afternoon into the evening, but too uncertain at this time to mention in TAFs. Wood && .MARINE... Light wind regime will result in northwest winds turning onshore late this morning and early afternoon. Wind speeds will remain in the 5 to 10 knot range, with lower wave heights. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to affect the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan late tonight into Saturday morning. Warm and more humid air will return to the region. Recent offshore winds continued to reinforce colder upwelling waters in the shallower nearshore waters. Atwater Beach buoy measuring a lake surface temperature of 48 degrees, while recent MODIS imagery measured lake surface temps in the 50s across the nearshore waters, while mid-lake temps remain in the lower 70s. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium. High pressure will move across WI today although scattered to broken cirrus will occur due to swly flow aloft and the upstream convection. The high clouds will probably keep temps down a degree or two along with an afternoon lake breeze as well. Highs in the mid- upper 70s for today. For tonight, a shortwave trough will track from NE to srn MN. A wave of low pressure will follow into IA with a sly 30 kt LLJ moving into srn WI. The models differ on the exact placement of the LLJ with some focusing farther west than others. Confidence is such to go with likely PoPs over south central WI with high chance PoPs in ern WI. PWs will rise to 1.5-1.8 inches with the thetae advection while elevated CAPE will be very minimal due to mid level lapse rates of 5.5-6.0 C/KM. The showers and storms that do occur should have moderate to heavy rainfall rates but will likely be brief. SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium Showers/storms will be likely across southern Wisconsin Saturday as the first wave lifts northward. This first round may be limited to the morning...with a break possible late morning into the afternoon between waves. Another wave may then bring more storms late afternoon into the evening. Overall, models not in great agreement with timing and placement of convection. Though confidence is on the higher end that there will be showers/storms on Saturday, not nearly as confident in the timing at this point. Should see near normal temps on Saturday. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence...Medium Deeper moisture will be south of the area on Sunday, so went mainly dry. Should be a pleasant day. Near zonal flow Monday will transition to northwest flow between a ridge building to the west and an upper low passing through well to the northeast. Could see a couple weak waves move through the forecast area...so kept some pops going into mid-week. By Wednesday, the ECMWF and Canadian push the bulk of moisture and instability south and west of the forecast area. The GFS remains moist and unstable Wed and Thu. Kept some pops per the GFS, but would be dry if the ECMWF/Canadian solutions pan out. Should see temps a bit above normal through Tuesday. There is less certainty beyond that due to the previously mentioned model differences for Wed/Thu. Generally kept temps in between the warmer GFS and cooler ECMWF/Canadian solutions. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR conditions today and this evening with only sct-bkn cirrus today with a mid level deck of clouds for the evening. After midnight, scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are expected to develop as a warm front approaches from the sw. Cigs will lower and may become MVFR toward sunrise or afterward. Cigs and vsbys will be reduced with any showers and storms. MARINE... Relatively light winds and low wave heights are expected for today and the weekend over the western shore of Lake MI. A lake breeze is expected this afternoon with esely winds continuing tonight and Saturday. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wood/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring Saturday THROUGH Thursday...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 220832 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 332 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High. A quiet period is expected through tonight. Low level ridge axis will shift to the east this morning, allowing low level winds to increase from the south. Plenty of sunshine and south winds will result in a warmer day, with temperatures recovering back to around seasonal normals for mid-August. Winds will veer to the south to southeast by Lake Michigan this afternoon, causing temperatures at the shore to stabilize, and likely even slip a few degrees, due to cooler nearshore waters. Low level jet will be focused to the west today, and to the north tonight, as mid-level high pressure ridge builds briefly back into the region. Possible some mid or high clouds may graze southern WI this aftn and tonight, as warm air and mid-level moisture surges in from the Central Plains. Despite light boundary layer winds over western CWA, and low dew point depressions, seeing very little fog development on webcams and surface observations. Hence wl confine fog mention to WI River valley, and far west closer to low level ridge axis early this morning. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models remain in good agreement with showing a 500 mb ridge sliding northeast through the region on Tuesday. A tightening pressure gradient should result in increasing south winds. High pressure will remain to the southeast of the region. This should continue to bring warmer air into the region. Area forecast soundings are still fairly dry on Tuesday, so kept forecast dry. May see winds back southeast along the lake in the afternoon. Models then are in decent agreement with bringing a 500 mb shortwave trough northeast into Wisconsin late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In addition, a low level jet nose at 850 mb points into eastern Iowa into northern Illinois later Tuesday night, before weakening and shifting to the east Wednesday morning. Area forecast soundings show a quick moistening of the air column late Tuesday night, lingering into Wednesday morning. There is some elevated CAPE with modest deep layer shear. Increased POPs into likely category by Wednesday morning across most of the area. Cold front then moves east through the region Wednesday afternoon and evening, then off to the east by later Wednesday night. Frontogenesis response with the front is fairly weak during this time. Still, adjusted area forecast soundings show some mean layer CAPE again, with modest deep layer shear. Continued likely POPs into the afternoon, with POPs lowering Wednesday night. Precipitation during this time may be more scattered in nature, with the weaker upward vertical motion fields. Storm Prediction Center has area in Marginal Risk for severe storms on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given the modest deep layer shear and modest CAPE, this seems reasonable. However, any cloud cover with the precipitation may limit CAPE values. In addition, heavy rainfall may be possible during this time, as several parameters are favorable. Precipitable water values reach 2.00 inches on both NAM and GFS for Wednesday. A lot will depend on how unstable it gets, as well as how strong the shear and storm propagation gets. Warm and humid conditions are expected. .THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. GFS/ECMWF are showing cold air advection behind the front for Thursday, with high pressure pushing east across the region Thursday night and Friday. This should bring a period of quiet weather, with less humid conditions. These models then bring a 500 mb shortwave trough northeastward into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Sunday, with southwest flow across the region Friday night into Saturday night. Most of the QPF with the warm air advection remains just west of the area Friday night, then shifts into the area Saturday into Sunday. For now, will continue to have POPs for showers and storms for most of this period. Friday night may end up dry, if the models continue to trend westward with QPF and forcing for upward vertical motion during that period. Warm and humid conditions should prevail during this time. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR conditions expected for the period. Some light fog may affect TAF sites early this morning, but any visibility restriction will be brief, not more than an hour or two. Better boundary layer mixing should prevent significant fog later tonight, despite slightly higher low level relative humidity. && .MARINE... A quiet period through Tuesday, with winds turning onshore late this morning or early afternoon. With the backing winds, Lake Michigan lake surface temperatures should rebound back into the mid 60s to lower 70s, as the cooler upwelling waters currently in the nearshore waters gradually warm. MODIS image from Sunday evening measured the lake surface temperature anywhere from the mid 50s at the shore off of Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties, to the upper 60s toward the open waters. Tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front will cause increasing south to southeast winds Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gusts will approach Small Craft Advisory levels during this period. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Wood  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 210831 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Weak low pressure trof rotating around departing southern Canada low pressure, and low level cold air surge, will bring a period of lower clouds to southern WI this morning. A light shower or sprinkle may affect northeast CWA. Weak forcing slides off to the east late this morning. However, sct-bkn cumulus likely to redevelop in lingering moist, cyclonic flow. May be just enough instability to set off a few isold -shra over ern CWA in the early to mid aftn. Otherwise, cyclonic flow flattens late today into tonight, as upper level jet axis shifts east of the area, and thermal trof slides off to the east as well. Hence, expect mostly clear skies for tonight. Boundary layer winds will weaken enough to allow patchy fog to develop over far western areas late tonight, with widespread fog in the WI river valley. Clouds and cooler air in place will hold daytime temps peaking in the low to mid 70s, with 50s tngt. .MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models are in decent agreement with trends Monday into Tuesday. Zonal flow at 500 mb transitions into a ridge during this period. At the surface, high pressure southeast of the region allows for south to southwest winds to develop, as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat. This brings some warm air advection into the region. Area forecast soundings remain fairly dry during this period. Thus, quiet weather with warming temperatures and increasing dew points are expected during this time. Models show a little more uncertainty for Tuesday night, as they differ on the timing with the next 500 mb shortwave trough sliding northeast into the region. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF bring this feature into southwest Wisconsin by 12Z Wednesday with light QPF in the western counties. The Canadian is slower amd keeps the area dry. Area forecast soundings show moisture advection into the region helping bring a rather moist adiabatic lapse rate profile, with some modest elevated CAPE. Continued to bring in chance POPs for Tuesday night in forecast. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. The GFS/ECMWF bring the 500 mb shortwave trough northeast through the region Wednesday morning, with the cold front sliding east through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night, exiting to the east Thursday. GFS forecast soundings showing decent mean layer CAPE at times, with steadily increasing deep layer shear as the front approaches the area. Continued the consensus POPs for thunder Wednesday into Wednesday night, then lowering Thursday with some lingering showers. Warm and humid conditions are expected during this period. High pressure should then build into the region Thursday night into Friday night, bringing less humid conditions and a period of quiet weather. Chances for precipitation return Saturday, with next system shifting northeast into the region. More uncertainty exists this far out in the forecast, so stayed close to consensus POPs and temperatures. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Period of MVFR cigs likely to affect TAF sites this morning, as low pressure short wave trof moves southeast through srn WI. Small chance for a brief light shower or sprinkle, mainly north of TAF sites. Expect sct-bkn cu to reform for several hours, after weak short wave forcing slides southeast of the area later this morning. Hence, not expecting significant clearing until mid afternoon or later. && .MARINE... Will continue Small Craft Advisory through mid-morning. Still receiving recent observations of west to northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots just offshore, including Racine Reef Light and Atwater Buoy. Gradually weakening pressure gradient will allow wind gusts to fall below 22 knots later this morning into the afternoon. Offshore winds will continue through tonight, with winds backing to the south on Monday. Latest MODIS imagery shows that the offshore winds have resulted in upwelling of cooler subsurface water along the near shore waters. Lake surface temp has cooled into the 50s. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Monday THROUGH Saturday...Wood  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 101455 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 955 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 .UPDATE... Quiet weather will continue today under the western periphery of high pressure. Temps and dewpoints will be a little warmer today, with forecast values seeming to be on track. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Scattered to broken ceilings around 4-5 kft continue toward the Illinois border this morning. Elsewhere, diurnal cumulus will likely develop by later this morning. It will remain quiet into tonight, with a few showers or storms possible northwest of Madison later tonight as a low pressure system approaches. A little fog is not of the question again tonight, but not expecting widespread fog as high pressure continues to shift eastward. The chance for showers and storms will increase on Thursday, especially in the northwest forecast area. Storms are then likely Thursday evening/night as low moves into the area. && .MARINE... Latest MODIS imagery showed Lake MI surface temp has risen into the low to mid 70s across the nearshore waters out to mid-lake. Little upwelling expected until the weekend when winds turn predominately west to northwest. Hence water temperatures expected to remain mild next several days. Average Lake MI temperature running about two degrees above the long-term average for early August. Land-based heating expected to result in a lake breeze developing over the near shore and shore areas late this morning and early afternoon. Wind speeds expected to rise mostly to 8 to 10 knots with a few gusts potentially of 13-15 knots. Next chance for precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning when weak cold front moves through the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Light winds and dew points in the middle to upper 60s should allow for light fog to form across the area early this morning, with more concentrated fog in low lying areas. This fog should dissipate by middle morning. Quiet weather is expected today, with warm and humid conditions. Winds should shift onshore near Lake Michigan by late morning and linger in the afternoon. This should keep temperatures there down a bit. Inland areas should reach the upper 80s for highs today. Heat index values should be in the lower to middle 90s inland. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by afternoon inland. 00Z model runs are now keeping the northwestern areas dry later tonight. It seems like the best forcing for upward vertical motion will remain to the west later tonight. Kept low POPs in the forecast for now in the northwest, but these may need removal later on, if dry look to models continues. There should be more light fog development later tonight across the area, as winds become relatively light with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. Lows tonight will be similar. THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium A very warm and very humid airmass will be in place and sustained by a southerly lower level flow. 925 temps will be into the mid 20s celsius and consensus of MOS numbers supports dew points in the low to mid 70s. So rather uncomfortable. 591dm ridge axis collapses somewhat as the day wears on with lower level forcing tied to the surface/850 frontal boundaries will hold off to the northwest of the cwa. With 850 LLJ starting to lean a bit more into cwa and a slight indication of some dcva will keep mention of tsra across mainly the western and northwest cwa as the day wears on. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium Expecting an unsettled period as more vigorous shortwave activity arrives along with the surface/850 millibar frontal boundaries. So appears to be some decent lower level and mid/upper level forcing working in concert. MLCAPE from the ecmwf shows values aoa 1000 j/kg. 250 millibar jet core progd to ride to our north with increasing divergence noted in association with a the right rear quad of the jet core. So will continue the trend of higher pops this period. The slow movement of the front through the area into at least Friday morning could result in some much needed rainfall across srn WI. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - Confidence...Medium A cooler and drier air airmass will prevail in the wake of the departed frontal boundary. The low level thermal trough will be set up by Sunday and linger into Monday. Surface/850 ridging will dominate while the mid level flow will be on the cyclonic side. The ecmwf shows the strongest looking vort coming in late Saturday night into Sunday morning with the GEM and GFS weaker with more of an elongated/sheared appearance to this feature. Will stick with the quiet Superblend pops at this time. TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium The GFS builds up a 588dm ridge while the ECMWF keeps the mid level flow cyclonic with more weak waves passing through. Still the progs keep the area dry with any precip more likely to our north or west. Again, Superblend looks dry so will stick with it for now. With 925 flow likely to become either south or southwest, should see a little bounce back in the low level thermal pattern so will likely see temps nudge back into the 80s. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...May see light fog at TAF sites until middle morning, with light winds and humid conditions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions today into this evening. Light south winds are expected at Madison, with east southeast winds at the eastern sites. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds are expected by late morning, lingering into the afternoon. Light winds are expected tonight, with clearing skies. Should see more light fog later tonight at TAF sites, with visibilities down to around 3 miles possible. MARINE...East southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected today across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Waves will remain in the 1 to 2 foot range. May see light fog develop over the lake later tonight, with light winds and a humid airmass in place. Could see more light fog at times into Friday, with the warm and humid airmass over the area. Winds should be high enough to prevent dense fog formation. A passing cold front Thursday night into Friday will likely bring thunderstorms to the area. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels into Friday. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 071019 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 619 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania early next week, then move off the east coast during the second half of next week. A slow-moving cold front will likely push into the state by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early am MODIS imagery showing patchy in the valleys of western Pa, the result of cool temps/calm wind and much warmer river/stream water. Latest HRRR suggests any fog will burn off by 13Z. Sfc high and assoc dry air mass building into Pa will bring mostly sunny skies to the region today with blw avg humidity for August. A weak shortwave approaching the area has produced a few shra as it crossed the warm waters of Lk Erie early this morning, but air mass across Pa is likely too dry to support any showers. 8h temps nr 15C should translate to max temps from the u70s ovr the Alleghenies, to the m80s across the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Center of sfc high will drift across upstate NY tonight, resulting in another night of efficient radiational cooling, esp across the n mtns. SREF and downscaled NAM both indicate patchy fog will form in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80 with lows in the m50s. Mins btwn 60-65F expected across the southern half of the state. All mdl data tracks a shortwave across Pa on Monday, but 0-3km lyr will remain quite dry, so nothing more than some passing cirrus expected. Ens mean 8h temps support seasonal high temps btwn 80-85F over most of Central Pa. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As sfc high drifts off the east coast on Tuesday, an increasingly humid SE flow will result in a fair amt of aftn cu and perhaps an isold pm tsra across the Allegheny Mtns. 00Z NAEFS/ECENS showing a building subtropical ridge over the eastern CONUS by the middle of next week with temps rising abv seasonal norms. 00Z GEFS shows Pa lying within ribbon of higher PWATs on northern periphery of upper ridge, likely supporting sct diurnally-driven pm convection Wed-Fri. All med range guidance indicating a slow-moving cold front will press se into the area by next weekend, so have gone with somewhat higher Pops next Saturday. ECENS/NAEFS mean 8h temps rebound to near 20C Wed-Sat, which should support max temps above 90 in the valley locations. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high building in has dropped dewpoints into the 50s areawide. So VFR conditions will continue overnight, though isolated reductions possible just before sunrise - mainly in locales that received rain over the past 24hrs. Winds will be light. The dry air should provide several days of excellent flying weather with VFR dominating through at least Tuesday. Outlook... Sun-Tue...No sig wx expected. Wed...Isold MVFR restrictions poss in afternoon shra/tsra. Thu...Sct MVFR restrictions poss in afternoon shra/tsra. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KTFX 020329 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 928 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016 .DISCUSSION... No update necessary tonight. High pressure continues to provide dry and stable conditions. MODIS satellite imagery continues to show some smoke from Idaho wildfires making its way into southwest Montana. Temperatures look good. && .AVIATION... Updated 2335Z. High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable conditions. West to northwest winds have been gusty at some locations but will decrease after 03z. VFR conditions prevail. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 336 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016 Monday afternoon through Wednesday...The upper level low over northern Saskatchewan will continue to lift NE into Hudson Bay tonight allowing a s/w ridge to briefly build into Montana. Outside of an isolated shower or storm near the Little Rockies this afternoon, this should keep the forecast area precip-free through Tuesday morning. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a potent upper level low will move through the region. At the SFC, an area of low pressure and associated cold front will move across the CWA Tuesday afternoon/evening. Moisture with this low looks limited at this time and mainly confined along and north of the low track (ie. from the Hi-Line north into Canada). How much moisture can be pulled into our northern counties remains uncertain and may ultimately determine whether we can get much t-storm development on this side of the International Border. That said, forecast soundings indicate more than adequate shear in that area late Tuesday into Tuesday evening, so any storm that can develop will have the potential to become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. Again, though, the threat may be tampered by how much moisture can be pulled into the area. The other issue with this front will be the wind. A lighter south/SE wind will develop ahead of the low Tuesday afternoon, then quickly shift to the west late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night from west to east. Across the plains of north- central Montana, wind gusts of 30-45 mph are likely. The strong winds combined with drier air may lead to some elevated fire concerns. However, at this time there is some uncertainty regarding just how dry it will get and for this reason, will hold off on any fire weather highlights for Wednesday afternoon. Something to keep a close eye on, though. Temperatures will warm to above normal Tuesday afternoon, then drop down below normal on Wednesday behind the front. Martin Wednesday night through Monday...Upper level low looks to move east across southern Canada Wednesday night...ending breezy winds and chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms from west to east across the forecast area. Ridge of high pressure with weak and dry flow moves across the region for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will warm each day back into the 80s...with the mentioned dry air dropping afternoon RH values back into the teens to low 20s. No precipitation is expected for Thursday. Friday will see a switch to a more south southeasterly flow...possibly gusty at times. This southerly flow will also bring with it a slight increase of monsoonal moisture. Only southern parts of the CWA will have enough to support chances for thunderstorms on Friday...but this southerly flow could start to prime the atmosphere for this weekend. A closed upper level low in western Canada extends a large trough across the west coast for Saturday. This will help bring more monsoonal moisture across the region. Along with that...se flow continues at the sfc advecting more moisture into the region. With low to moderate instability...the upper level disturbance...and increased moisture...isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of the CWA on Saturday. The upper level trough will then push across the region on Sunday. A developing sfc low in southern MT could even tap into some limited gulf moisture across eastern portions of the CWA...possibly bringing dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. Much like Saturday...isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of the CWA. Exact timing and location of these weekend storms is difficult to predict this far out...so put widespread slight chance in across the area. With only moderate levels of shear...a few isolated stronger storms may be possible this weekend...and mainly confined to eastern portions of the CWA where models are indicating higher dewpoints may enter into the CWA. The trough will then move northeast through Montana on Monday...keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area. Similar temperatures to those previously mentioned on Thursday and Friday will continue through the weekend into Monday. Anglin/Coulston && .FIRE WEATHER... On Tuesday, temperatures will become quite warm with continued very dry air, especially in the central and southwest fire zones (117 and 118). However, a light easterly flow on the northern and eastern plains (zones 112, 113, 115) should keep humidity values there a bit higher. A cold front is then expected to sweep east across the region Tuesday evening/overnight. Winds may increase some in the deeper mixed pre-frontal environment late Tuesday afternoon, but at this point the timing of the front is not optimal for gusty winds during the peak afternoon heating period. Gusty west winds will sweep east behind the front Tuesday night through Wednesday. Temperatures cool and humidity improves Tuesday night through Wednesday, though some locations across SW MT may still see afternoon RH fall to near 20% Wednesday afternoon. Because the driest conditions and strongest winds do not seem to coincide at this time, am not anticipating a need for fire weather highlights at this time, but will continue to monitor the situation for possible timing adjustments. Hoenisch/Coulston && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 51 90 53 75 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 46 85 52 68 / 0 10 20 20 HLN 54 94 57 79 / 0 10 10 0 BZN 48 92 49 80 / 0 10 10 0 WEY 42 81 45 73 / 10 10 10 0 DLN 48 88 48 78 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 50 91 57 75 / 0 0 20 20 LWT 53 87 54 75 / 0 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 180823 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 323 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence - Medium to High. Weak frontal boundary has just about exited far southeast WI early this morning. Light surface winds have become mostly west to northwest which are ushering in slightly lower humidity and dewpoints. Just above the surface, winds a bit more robust from the northwest at 10 to 20 knots, lowering the humidity aloft as well. Low level mixiness also helping to prevent significant fog development early this morning despite Sunday rainfall. A quiet period is expected through tonight, but passing cloudiness can be expected time to time. Occasional passing high clouds due to cirrus blowoff from upstream convection across northern IA/MN can be expected into tonight. Also enough lingering low level rh will contribute to some cumulus development later this morning and afternoon. With temperatures starting out mild, expect daytime temps to rebound into the low to mid 80s. A developing lake breeze will cool shore areas in the afternoon. Expect elevated instability and baroclinic zone to remain upstream across IA extending into central IL through tonight. Hence any convection to remain to the west and south. Lighter boundary level winds tonight will allow patchy late night fog to develop. Fog should be more limited in parts of western CWA due to another bout of cirrus blowoff affecting this area later tonight. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium Surface high pressure will slide southeastward Tuesday, becoming centered over the eastern Great Lakes by evening. The surface high will continue to depart Wednesday, while an upper ridge builds into the region. Will probably see a wave or two ride through the top of the mid/upper ridge. Increasing moisture and warm advection will combine with forcing from the waves to kick off rounds of storms within the region. Models are coming into better agreement wave timing/placement...suggesting Tuesday night into Wednesday may be the best chance for storms. Temps should be a couple/few degrees above normal Tue and Wed. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium Could be another round or two of storms late in the week as disturbances move through the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Not great confidence in the low pops in the forecast, as it could easily be dry Thursday and Friday due to capping under the ridge. Higher confidence Thu/Fri remains with temps, as models are generally in good agreement that it will turn hot and humid. Timing of any clouds and precip with the weak waves could certainly throw a wrench in forecast temps either day. Given that it looks mainly dry for late week though, kept the hot temps going. Looking increasingly likely that heat headlines may be needed for both days, with forecast heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. .SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium The trough and associated cold front are expected to finally move through on Saturday. Kept some pops going, though not very impressed with the forcing suggested by models. Looks mainly dry then Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. Bumped temps up a bit Saturday with the slower progression of the trough/front compared to model solutions 24 hours ago. Should see temps return to near normal Sunday behind the departing front. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Weak frontal boundary exiting far southeast WI has ushered somewhat less humid air across the area overnight. Light surface winds have veered to the northwest most areas and surface dewpoints have dropped a few degrees into the mid to upper 60s. Just off surface, northwest winds increase to 10 to 20 knots. These conditions will prevent significant fog from forming early this morning. VFR conditions expected for the forecast period with few-sct cumulus developing later this morning and afternoon. Patchy fog more of a threat late tonight due to lighter boundary layer winds. May put in some light fog in eastern TAF sites late, but expected high clouds over western CWA should help prevent fog in this area. && .MARINE... Much lighter winds are expected today. West to northwest winds will become onshore late this morning and afternoon due to a light pressure gradient and shore temperatures warming into the 80s. Breezy southwest winds on Sunday following morning thunderstorms resulted in upwelling of cooler water temperatures. The Atwater Buoy located 1.25 miles off northern Milwaukee county continues to measure water temperatures in the 40s early this morning, which corresponds with MODIS satellite imagery from Sun aftn. The lighter winds expected next 48 hours will allow water temperature to recover in the shallower near shore areas. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 170652 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 152 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016 .DISCUSSION... A mostly clear sky combined with a moist near surface layer has provided a favorable environment for valley fog development. IR imagery (GOES and MODIS) are showing river valley fog in parts of Jackson and DeKalb Counties in northeast AL and Franklin County in TN. Observations at K4A9 and KMSL also indicate fog at this hour. The fog should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise so will carry it through ~13Z. Water vapor imagery and stream flow vectors indicate a shortwave trough has now pushed into central AL and GA, with slightly drier mid and upper levels helping to clear the sky in the TN valley. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate good potential for convective instability to develop readily again today. The best chance of thunderstorm development should take place along the higher terrain in the southeast portion of our forecast area. Will go with a chance POP in these areas, lowering to slight chance in our northwest areas. Forecast CAPE values are not as high as Saturday, but given some drier air in the mid and upper levels, some downdrafts could produce gusty winds again today. Will go ahead and forecast patchy fog again tonight given little change in atmospheric conditions expected from what we see this morning. Not much change in forecast thinking from yesterday with a broad longitudinal ridge building across the southern U.S., which strengthens into a well defined anti-cyclone over Kansas by Monday into Tuesday. This places our area in an eastward extension of a ridge axis. There will be considerable northwest flow bringing impulses southeast through the Ohio Valley that may round the ridge to the southwest and west into the deep South during the early part of this week. This will help keep at least low chances of thunderstorms in on Monday and Tuesday. The greater chance appears to be on Tuesday when a "back door" cold front drops south or southwest from the Ohio Valley with at least scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Will we see the considerably drier surface dew point air that the GFS advects in behind this front on Thursday into Friday? The ECMWF is less optimistic on lowering dew points as much as the GFS and seems more reasonable. The 850 mb high position is also progged to be right over middle TN and north AL on Thursday. So, it will certainly be a hot weather period this week into next weekend. The question will be the humidity and resulting heat index values. Those will be highest in our NW Alabama counties which will flirt with 105 degrees, while other areas may experience mainly upper 90s to around 100 degrees. && .AVIATION... (Issued 1231 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016) For 06Z TAFs: Mostly clear skies continue at both TAF sites at this time. Very light winds will continue and new model guidance shows very little additional cloud cover developing. In fact, new guidance suggests VSBYS dropping to between 1 and 3 miles after 17/08Z or 17/09Z. Skeptical that KHSV will drop that low, since they had very little rain today at the terminal. Thus, VSBY values were dropped into the MVFR category at KHSV and to IFR at KMSL. Although cigs around 4000 feet will develop by 17/15Z, VFR conditions will return/continue through the rest of the TAF period. An isolated tsra is a possibility at both sites tomorrow afternoon, but left out due to low confidence of development. If one affects the TAF sites, lower CIGS and VSBYS are possible. KTW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Huntsville 93 73 94 73 / 30 20 20 20 Shoals 93 73 94 73 / 20 20 20 20 Vinemont 91 72 92 72 / 40 20 20 20 Fayetteville 92 72 93 72 / 30 20 20 20 Albertville 91 71 92 71 / 40 30 30 20 Fort Payne 90 70 92 70 / 40 30 30 20 && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 121756 CCA AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 956 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The closed upper level low continues to move eastward, and is reflected at the surface as a weak low positioned over the lower southwestern Gulf this morning. While, a 1008 mb low pressure system is approaching the Southeast Panhandle near Sitka with a 100 knot southwesterly jet streaking just south of the Dixon Entrance. The moisture from this system is streaming northward bringing numerous showers into the northern Gulf coastal communities, except for some moisture spilling over the mountains with periods of light rain filtering into the Southcentral region. While, another weak shortwave is over the Kuskokwim Delta, and is reflected at the surface with a weak cyclonic circulation west of Bethel. The radar imagery is picking this feature up well, and is depicting the cyclonic circulation associated with this low. Plus, numerous showers over the Kuskokwim Delta coastline from Kipnuk northward, and scattered rain showers over the Kuskokwim Mountains. The MODIS Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery is picking up the low stratus along the southwest coastline from Kipnuk eastward. This feature is being aided by the onshore flow helping to transfer the stratus inland this morning. The Western Aleutians have a comma cloud shield streaming from the Pacific Ocean associated with the 1000 mb North Pacific Low located southwest of Shemya. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models remain in good agreement as the North Pacific Low approaches Shemya, and as the ridge of high pressure builds into the Bering Sea. Looks like the Southwest Alaska region will have a nice warming trend as the high pressure builds, and begins to extend into Southcentral Alaska area. Plus, the northwesterly flow will result in drier conditions. The models in the Gulf keep weak diffuse lows moving across the region keeping moisture mainly along the coast. The forecast confidence is average as we head into the early work week. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The surface flow will remain fairly weak through tonight with surface ridging across the Bering and a trough along the eastern Gulf. An upper level low currently centered near Kodiak drifts slowly east across the southern gulf waters through the afternoon. This system pinwheels easterly shortwaves across the southern mainland and gulf bringing continued shower activity until ridging builds in from the southwest which should diminish rain activity by Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight along the Talkeetna Mountains during peak heating, with the focus shifting to the mountains along the Copper River on Monday as a thermal trough extends south from the Yukon. Offshore flow develops across the Eastern Kenai on Monday with gusty conditions developing early Tuesday. North to westerly flow sets up across all of Southcentral by late Tuesday with stronger gusts across channeled terrain and gap locations along the coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... A showery regime will hang around for one more day before a much drier, and then a warmer air mass comes around on Tuesday. Today the forecast starts out with a strong shortwave trough withing the larger cyclonic circulation taking up most of southern Alaska. The steady rain over the Kuskokwim Delta will continue this morning, mainly west of Bethel before tapering off this afternoon. The rest of the mainland will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold air aloft. The best chance for thunder to accompany showers will be in eastern portions of the Bristol Bay zone. That system exits to the east tonight and will be replaced with a northwesterly flow regime aloft. Monday night into Tuesday a disturbance in this flow will bring a chance of rain to northern areas of the mainland. High pressure builds in on Tuesday bringing much drier and warmer conditions. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... One front weakens over the Bering today, and another approaches. The Eastern Aleutians will see spotty rain today as the front overhead falls apart. Most of the Bering will see generally weak westerly flow with some areas of fog. An east-west frontal boundary will stretch across the north Pacific, and will spread over the Western and Central Aleutians on Monday afternoon while weakening. A triple point low pressure system will develop on this front late Monday evening, affecting the Central and Eastern Aleutians with steady moderate rainfall. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... Beginning the long term period, a ridge over the Bering Sea will be building ahead of a North Pacific low with a northerly shortwave trough moving into the Gulf of Alaska. With the remnants of the previous Gulf low moving southeast, this pattern will promote strong offshore flow and rapid drying across southern Alaska. Rapid warming will occur Tuesday with Wednesday and Thursday looking to be the warmest days of the year thus far across many locations as 850 hpa temperatures rise to 8 to 12C, 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. By late Thursday into Friday, uncertainty rises with respect the Bering low and how quickly the front moves into southwest Alaska (and eventually Southcentral). The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian GDPS all differ with respect to timing and how much phase interaction there is with the subtropics, which impacts dramatically how quickly and how wet the eventual front is as it moves eastward. For now, a WPC ensemble approach was favored which features increasing trends for precipitation and gradually moderating temps (back towards normal) from the end of the week into the weekend. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML LONG TERM...JA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 110836 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium. Eastern IA convection continues to dwindle and sag southeast early this morning. Hence expect widespread cirrus shield to thin and dissipate. A humid day lies ahead with the added moisture from Friday's rainfall and the lighter west to southwest winds helping to keep dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 925H temps rising to around 25-26c and partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon should help the mercury rise into the lower 90s most locations, even closer to the lakeshore. The west winds should keep the lake breeze held close to the lakeshore this afternoon. The combination of warm temperatures and humidity will result in Heat Index values rising into the mid to upper 90s, with a few southwest spots perhaps briefly reaching 100. Too isolated at this point to post Heat Advisory, plus some uncertainty regarding upstream high clouds perhaps keeping daytime temperatures 1-2 degrees cooler. Both Madison and Milwaukee will approach their record high temp for today. 0-6km bulk shear expected to be weaker today, around 20kts but CAPE values should rise to 2-3k joules, once weak capping inversion is eclipsed early this afternoon. Will continue smaller chance for thunderstorms in this afternoon due to expected instability and passing weak boundary and potential weak lobe of mid-level vorticity adding some synoptic lift. SPC has lowered severe threat to marginal which seems reasonable considering lack of significant forcing and shear. Low level cold air surge will follow vigorous back door cold front which will pass through southern WI tonight. 3 hour pressure rises behind this front of 3 to 5 mb will result in some gusty winds by the lake shore. However drier air settling into srn WI should prevent convection from re-firing over most of the area as stronger cold front sweeps through during the evening and overnight. Will keep small pops in across the far southwest. Cooler, less humid conditions return for Sunday, especially by the lake. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is high. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Lake-cooled air will lead to highs in the 60s lakeshore. The ridging and warm temperatures will remain in place over the Midwest, so highs are expected around 80 west of Madison. Dry air over southern WI will keep the weather quiet for Sunday and Sunday evening with decreasing clouds. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Dakotas and northern MN on Sunday due to weak low pressure. The precip should track ESE per the Corfidi vectors overnight into Monday. The weak cold front with this system should slide south through the day and stall over southern WI Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms could re-develop along that boundary Monday afternoon/evening but forcing will be very weak so confidence is not high. Temperatures should climb back into the 80s Monday ahead of that cold front. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. A mid level trough will close off over he upper Midwest later in the week. This system will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to southern WI mainly Wednesday. Then clouds and showers will linger through Thursday until the system can move out. Ridging moves back in and the weekend looks fairly dry with temperatures around normal for mid June. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... High clouds from persistent upstream convection over northeast IA preventing fog from developing early this morning. Lack of low level convergence also keeping low cloud development at bay. Hence a mostly VFR period is expected. A thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon and evening. A wind shift to the northeast will accompany a cold front passing through this evening. && .MARINE... Webcams not indicated any fog near the shore early this morning, however threat for dense fog will persist today into this evening as warm, humid air flows across cooler Lake MI. Recent buoys and MODIS imagery indicating Lake MI water temp in the low to mid 50s while surface dewpoints rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s today. SW winds will likely back to the south to southeast over the near shore waters later this morning and afternoon. However the lake breeze should be held close to the shore by the expected WSW breezes over the land. Strong back door cold front will sweep rapidly south across the near shore waters this evening, between 00z and 06z. Burst of north to northeast winds immediately behind front may gust as high as 35 knots, but should quickly settle down to 33 knots or less. Looks like the gusty winds over 22 knots will persist through the late night along with building waves. Hence will post Small Craft Advisory tonight into early Sunday for lingering high waves. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Sunday THROUGH Friday...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 311830 RRA AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED National Weather Service State College PA 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow northward into Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of another relatively weak cold front. Saturday is expected to be dry again...but wet weather may arrive for the second half of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Tiny shallow cumulus clouds are scattered about all of central PA at this hour as per GOES East and MODIS imagery. Strong inversion at 675 Mb is squashing vertical development so no expecting any of these to produce anything of consequence. Aside from thin high clouds streaming NEWD from the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys...skies will clear this evening and it will be a comfortable night with a light NE breeze. Lows will vary from around 50F across the northern border...to near 60F in the valleys of Southern PA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... With sfc high pressure tracking north and northeast of region on Wednesday...another mostly sunny...warm and dry day is in store. Comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere...will combine with highs mostly in the lower to middle 80s to bring another stellar day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge of high pressure should bring a mostly sunny Wednesday with warm amd dry conditions aided by comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere. Latest 00-06Z Models and ensembles show cold front moving into the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat. For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day to day. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conds will prevail through tonight. Some patchy late night and early morning fog is expected with mvfr restrictions. This will burn off by 14z with VFR expected again throughout central PA. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Sun...Reductions in widespread rain and low cigs. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 270842 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 342 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium Radar mosaic shows several weakening MCS's to the south. This weakening has allowed surge of moisture advection to begin spreading northward. Short term guidance underestimating upstream low level jet as vertical wind profiler network from WSR-88D showing 40-50kt jet focused into central IA while IL on weaker eastern side of jet. The combination of this surge and approaching mid-level jetlet should carry at least scattered showers and storms across CWA this morning. Column precipitable water is expected to increase to around 1.25 to 1.5 inches this morning as this moisture streams nwd. Low level jet re-energizes this aftn and eve ahead of low pressure moving into the central plains and becoming slightly negatively tilted. With deeper moisture in place and MUCapes anywhere from 500- 1500 j/kg, expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to redevelop, especially over ern CWA. Mid level Lapse Rates only 5-6 degrees and bulk shear mostly in the 25-35kt range. More cloud cover today should limit instability somewhat but isold severe not out of the question, mainly later today. Will continue likely wording into tonight due to nearby low level jet and continuing surges of low level moisture flux convergence and lingering instability. Corfidi vectors show slow motion this afternoon and tonight as warm cloud depth increases to 3-4km. However the Flash Flood Factor expected to be weak. With PWAT values well above normal, expect brief heavy rains to accompany t-storms but threat for flooding looks low at this point. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. The weakening upper trough will slide from eastern NE to Lake Superior during this period. High precipitable water values and weak instability will persist over southern WI on Saturday. Multiple weak shortwaves will ripple through the area as well, but timing of these are very uncertain. All of these factors support continued chances for showers and thunderstorms in southern WI Sat and Sat night. The surface low will be tracking through IA and MN on Sat, which will allow for a tighter pressure gradient in southern WI and lead to breezy south to southwest winds. Max temps should be around 80, as long as we see some breaks in the clouds. By Sunday morning, the main mid level trough will be along the MN/WI border. The final wave of vorticity advection will bring southern WI the best chance for showers/thunderstorms Sunday morning, with chances tapering off from west to east in the afternoon. Winds will shift to the west in the afternoon. Max temps on Sunday should be around 80 once again. Sunday night is the only dry period in the forecast at this time. MEMORIAL DAY... Forecast confidence is medium. The mid level flow will become zonal for Monday with possible ridging per the ECMWF. Several models are showing a weak shortwave rippling through southern WI, which could produce a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Thus, kept the slight chance pops in the forecast. Southern WI will still be in the mild air mass, so expect temperatures in the lower 80s inland from the lake. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. A closed upper low will make its way across the northern Plains Monday night through Thursday. The ECMWF is most progressive with this low which leads to precip timing differences. The occluding surface low will likely bring showers and thunderstorms to southern WI Tue and Wed. Then the GFS stalls the precip axis over WI for Thu and Fri which leads to the slight chance pops in the forecast. The ECMWF keeps southern WI dry during this period. Temperatures should be in the upper 70s for much of next week. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today into tonight as warm, more humid and unstable air surges northward into the area. VFR cigs are expected for most of the period but will briefly lower as some of these showers and storms affect taf sites. Best chance for storms in eastern taf sites later today into tonight. Mid-high clouds keeping fog at ba this morning. && .MARINE... Breezy west winds helped dissipate the dense fog over the near shore waters Thursday afternoon. However today the winds will be more south to southeast as warmer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s surge northward over Lake Michigan. Hence expect more fog to develop and likely to become dense for a time. Most susceptible area is offshore from Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties where MODIS images from Thursday showed cooler waters in these areas. Hence wl be watching webcams of shore areas closely after sunrise. Mariners will need to watch for scattered thunderstorms, especially later this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds with these storms may approach 35 kts, especially at the lakeshore. Also, tighter pressure gradient south of warm front will allow gusty south winds to affect lakeshore areas while winds remain less gusty offshore due to steeper inversion beginning later tonight . Wind gusts at the shore look to approach Small Craft Advisory levels late tonight into Saturday. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Saturday THROUGH Thursday...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 131326 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 526 AM AKDT FRI MAY 13 2016 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The upper levels are depicting a closed high at 500 mb over the eastern Alaska Range. With an associated ridge extending through the Southcentral region into the eastern Aleutians. This synoptic feature is reflected at the surface with a 1030 mb high pressure over the Yukon Territory and a 1031 mb high in the northern Gulf of Alaska this morning. This coincides with the MODIS Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery showing low stratus and fog in the Central Gulf. While the Southcentral region has some high cirrus clouds spilling over the ridge into the AOR. At 300 mb there is a strong 90 knot southerly jet stream extending through the eastern Bering northward into the Y-K Delta region towards the North Slope. The radar imagery is showing a steady onshore flow with rain echoes through the aforementioned region. The rest of the Bering Sea is under weak easterly to northeasterly flow, and high pressure is positioned over the Bering Strait. The strongest winds along the Aleutian Chain are over the Unalaska region with small craft advisory winds on the Pacific side due to a gale force low south of the Central Aleutians. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The models continue to remain in good agreement except for the timing of an upper level trough that will be swinging through the Western Gulf of Alaska into the Southwest Alaska region this weekend. The ecmwf is slightly faster than the gfs/nam with this feature. This synoptic feature combined with the thermal trough will enhance the possiblities of producing isolated thunderstorms over the Southwest region for Saturday afternoon/evening timeframe. The forecast confidence remains high through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... With a strong ridge overhead expect a hot and dry day across Southcentral Alaska. The main forecast challenge is timing and strength of sea breezes. As the 850 mb ridge lifts northward into interior Alaska today offshore flow of 5 to 10 knots will develop. This will be enough to at least delay the onset of sea breezes, especially along prince william sound and the north gulf coast. therefore, have bumped up high temps at least a few degrees area-wide (and correspondingly lowered relative humidities). Winds on Saturday look quite a bit different. As the upper level ridge moves inland a well defined thermal trough will set up beneath it. This will aid in development of the very typical east- west oriented surface ridge along the north Gulf Coast which will promote development of stronger sea breezes moving in earlier in the day. Development of gusty gap winds is expected along Turnagain Arm and into south to west Anchorage, and also along the Knik River Valley into Palmer and along the Copper River. The sea breezes and gap winds will help moderate temperatures, so forecast highs have been lowered just a bit. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will approach Southcentral Saturday afternoon then move through Saturday night into Sunday. The air mass out ahead of it will start out very dry and stable. Surface-based stability parameters look favorable for convection...mainly over the western Kenai Peninsula, Talkeetna Mountains and northern Susitna Valley. Based on the limiting factors of moisture and stability it seems convective initiation is most likely to occur over the mountains where there is always some moisture to work with (in the form of melting snow). Have maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms for the western Kenai Peninsula, but with warmer low level temps inland the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be over the Talkeetna mountains. Southeasterly flow will advect whatever does form across the northern Susitna Valley. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... A few lingering showers will be seen across the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning as the building upper level ridge shifts the upper level trough anchored over the Bering Sea and North pacific westward. By midday, the remaining lift along the eastern periphery of the upper level trough will shift into the Bering Sea and allow sky cover to quickly diminish. Temperatures at 850 mb will warm 2 to 5 degrees Celsius over the next 24 to 36 hours as the ridge moves overhead. These warmer temperatures aloft coupled with developing offshore flow will easily bring some of the warmest temperatures observed so far this year. Temperatures today will warm into the mid 50s across the Kuskokwim Delta to the lower to mid 60s across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and into the mid 60s to lower 70s across all of southwest Alaska on Saturday. Thunderstorms look likely on Saturday but will be isolated due to the lack of sufficient moisture. Thermal profiles show lapse rates of 7 to 8 degrees C/km with sfc based CAPE values upwards to 500 J/kg. An easterly wave will be pushing across the northern Bristol Bay area and southern portions of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley Saturday afternoon which will act as the lifting mechanism that will help utilize the instability and what little moisture is available. On Sunday, a similar setup to Saturday will be in place once again. However, there will be a few differences in the ingredients in place Sunday afternoon. The biggest plus for thunderstorms will be a stronger lifting mechanism on Sunday in the form of another upper level easterly wave moving across southwest Alaska. The negatives include somewhat less surface-based instability on Sunday due to cooler temperatures resulting from more cloud cover, and less moisture in place. Thermal lapse rates will be around 7 degrees C/km with forecast model soundings indicating CAPE values of 200-300 J/kg. Dew points are expected to be in the 40s. Thus, the fundamental question will be if the stronger wave will be able to overcome a less favorable environment. The current thinking is the best chance for storms will be along the Kilbuck and Ahklun Mountains, extending north into parts of the Kuskokwim Valley as the topography aids in lifting the moist, unstable air mass in place. The timing of the upper level easterly wave is also such that it will be moving into this region at the most favorable time of day (late afternoon) when the greatest amount of heating can occur prior to convective initiation. If thunderstorms develop, an environment featuring weak steering- level winds should mean the storms will move very little from where they form. This means the storms will choke themselves off from their source of warm, moist air as they create their own cold pools. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... High pressure will be the main story across much of the Bering Sea through the weekend. An area of low pressure in the North Pacific will drive a front through the eastern and central Aleutians this afternoon before stalling just west of Adak Saturday night as it clashes with the high pressure over the Bering Sea. The front will bring some decent rainfall to the eastern and central Aleutians as well as small craft winds and seas. The front will help displace the high pressure over the Bering Sea which will allow for broad cyclonic flow to re-develop over the Bering Sea by the beginning of next week and bring the return of isolated to scattered rain showers. Fog will be possible across much of the Bering with high pressure moving overhead but should decrease drastically in coverage as the aforementioned front displaces the high pressure. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... High pressure over the area will begin to diminish sunday night with low pressure building back over the gulf and eastern bering...causing increasing cloudiness along the coast and parts of the southern mainland. By early to mid next week...models continue to struggle with how they want to handle various systems that will move through the area. This results in lower forecast confidence moving into mid week with some models bringing in showers to the area...especially during the afternoon with daytime heating. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC/JW LONG TERM...TP  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 101333 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 533 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THE WESTERN BERING HAS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A 991 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTHERLY AND COINCIDES WITH A STRONG 110 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE Y-K DELTA REGION THIS MORNING. THE RADAR IS SHOWING A SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THIS MORNING. ON THE EAST SIDE AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH AN ASSOCIATED AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA. THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WIND IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF AND WESTERLY WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. WHILE THE MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MAT-SU VALLEYS AND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)... PANC...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE WE START GETTING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE TURNAGAIN ARM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTH TO OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL HOLD UNDER GENERALLY BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY WEAK...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE KENAI AND SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SPRINKLES TOWARD THE ANCHORAGE BOWL/MAT VALLEY TONIGHT AND WED. THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST SOME WED NIGHT AND THU...SO ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE PUSHED WEST. LOCAL GAP FLOWS (TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY/COPPER RIVER/KNIK) WILL PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED...THOUGH THE TURNAGAIN WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND WED)... THE AREA WILL REMAIN PINCHED BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF RAIN. THE FLOW WILL FAVOR SOUTH FACING SLOPES WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THU EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS...RAIN SHOULD COME AS STEADY PRECIPITATION AND NOT BE OVERLY HEAVY AT ANY ONE TIME. THUS...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME. BUT THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY STALLS OVER SW ALASKA AND WAVE AFTER WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG IT. EACH WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...TUE AND WED)...BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE BERING. ON THE EASTERN HALF...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE JET FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...FAVORING THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHAIN. IT WILL ALSO PUMP UP SOME WARMER AIR CREATING DECENT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE ICE PACK. ON THE WESTERN HALF...COOLER AND CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DOWN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS POSSIBLY ALLOWING A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE ANCHOR LOW WITHIN THE CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO BRING AN END TO SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)... A CONSOLIDATED BLOCKING HIGH WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AND ELONGATE AND BUILD TO THE WEST LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND RESULT IN WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS THIS YEAR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO LONG TERM...DK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 090830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN WI IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE WARM FRONT CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL INTO TN VALLEY REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO 50-55F. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IL BUT THIS AREA IS MOVING MOSTLY EAST. ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN NE...MOVING NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BRING -SHRA AND ISOLD T TO SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MRNG. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME INCREASING WEAK DBZ OVER SOUTHEAST IA. THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THIS WEAK WAVE DOES REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES NORTH BY AFTN. HENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS CWA. THREAT FOR -SHRA INCREASES DURING THE AFTN...AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER STRONGEST MOISTURE PUSH AND CONVERGENCE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO GRAZE SOUTHERN WI. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LLJ. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER MID- LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF SRN WI TNGT. QPF MOSTLY IN THE TWO TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NOT LINGER AND CONTINUE MOVING NWD. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD LIFTING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHTER QPF NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE AFTERNOON DRY WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW PRIMARY UPPER LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SRN WI WHICH SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA GOING AFTER THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP DEPARTS SRN WI. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF WI SO A CLOUDY AND COOL EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH A LOWER CLOUD DECK/STRATUS LIKELY PERSISTING ALL DAY. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM INITIAL 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT THE OUTSET AND GETS A KICK FROM THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH HEADING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS. PRIMARY SFC LOW HEADS NE INTO CANADA HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THIS HEADS NE FROM CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPR MIDWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH WAA PRECIP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO TRENDED POPS LOWER DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST 925 TEMPS IN THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO EVENING HIGHS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARRIVING CONVECTION. CWASP NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM DOES SHOW ONE BATCH OF CONVECTION IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER RIDING TO OUR NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS SHOW MORE OF A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE WHOLE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GOING WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN UPTICK IN 0-6KM SHEAR AND SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EVOLVE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS BUFKIT SHOWS CAPE VALUES ROOTED AROUND 900 MILLIBARS PUSHING 1000J/KG. MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SRN 1/2 OF FCST AREA SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SFC LOW PROGGD TO BE VCNTY NRN WI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SRN WI. WL KEEP SOME MRNG POPS IN THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM 500 MILLIBAR FORCING AND FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THOUGH 925 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO 10-13C AND WITH 925 WINDS OF 20- 30KNOTS FROM THE WEST WILL NEGATE ANY LAKE EFFECT AND STILL SEE MILDER TEMPS. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM PROGS ARE STILL SHOWING A RATHER COOL PERIOD SETTLING IN. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE WITH A FEW WAVES WHICH ARE RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING. THERE WILL BE SHRA POTENTIAL FROM TIME TO TIME TIED TO THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. 925/850 THERMAL PROFILE STILL LIKELY TO GET QUITE CHILLY. THE 925 WINDS REMAIN UP AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW LEVELS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN FROST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LOWER MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI AND TAF SITES TONIGHT. MAY BE A FEW NON-SEVERE T-STORMS AFFECTING TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS WELL. && .MARINE...GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ONSHORE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NOT TURNING OFF SHORE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. RECENT SATELLITE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE MI SURFACE TEMP STILL IN THE LOW 40S AWAY FROM SHORE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO INITIALLY PREVENT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY INTO THIS EVE. HOWEVER GUSTY ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY REACH LAKE SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE MRNG...WHICH WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS. HENCE PER COORD WITH LOT...WL POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY BEGINNING AT 06Z FOR SRN ZONES AND 09Z FOR NRN ZONES...LASTING THRU TUE MRNG. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645- 646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643- 644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 200834 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 334 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECTING LINGERING -SHRA OVER NORTHEAST CWA TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO BULK OF CWA THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN. MEANDERING UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD NEXT 36 HOURS AS LONG WAVE TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. POTENT PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL/ERN KS AND NE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND GRAZE SRN WI LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL JET REAMPLIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND RESULTS IN SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT CONTINUING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST OF CWA FOR ABOUT A SIX HOUR PERIOD. WL KEEP FAR EASTERN CWA IN LIKELY WORDING DUE TO STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 200-500 J/KG DURING THE PEAK FORCING SO WL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION. ENOUGH WEAK SHEAR AND ELEVATED CAPE TO RESULT IN A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN STRONGER STORMS BUT SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. ENHANCED LIFT FROM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SPEEDS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHTER SFC WINDS AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF TO OUR WEST FOR SOME TIME NOW WILL BE ACROSS IOWA EARLY IN THE DAY. 500 MILLIBAR LOW PROGGD TO BE ACROSS IOWA AT THE. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION INTACT AND SHIFT IT SOUTHEAST INTO MO. MEANWHILE THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION OPENS UP THE LOW INTO A POSITIVE TILT WAVE WHICH CROSSES SRN AND ERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH SRN WI IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH SOME TALL SKINNY CAPE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. MODELS SHOW A DRY WEDGE DURING THE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO FILL IN WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE AND LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. .FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD WITH SOME GUSTY NNE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION SHOWING 925 TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO 0C AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM AND COLDER GFS. DAVA WORKS IN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD. SURFACE HIGH PROGGD TO BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND RIDGING SSW INTO THE MID MISS VLY. .SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AREA. A RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH A NICE BOUNCE BACK OF THE 925 TEMPS INTO THE 10-12C RANGE. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO GET BACK INTO THE 60S ESP FOR INLAND LOCALES. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM EXPECT THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTENING AND SOUTHWARD SAGGING 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE FORCING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS WI DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE AS WELL BUT FOR NOW LATCHING ONTO THE SFC/850 LOW TRAVERSING TO OUR WEST AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTH. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO THE PRECIP A BIT LONGER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE HIGH IN FASTER AND SHOWS PRONOUNCED RIDGING INTO THE AREA WITH A DRIER NE LLVL FLOW. AT THIS TIME THE SUPERBLEND POPS ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TNGT TO IFR AS LIGHTER WINDS AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO SRN WI...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND LINGER INTO THU MRNG. && .MARINE...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP INVERSION THAT WILL PREVENT GUSTY WINDS ABOUT 500 FT ABV SURFACE AND HIGHER FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. LIGHTER SFC WINDS AND WARM...MOIST AIR MAY BRING AREAS OF FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS THU INTO THU NGT. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND GLERL ESTIMATED LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE LOWER 40S. THESE VALUES CONFIRMED BY SOUTHERN LAKE MI BUOY 45007 WHICH STARTED TRANSMITTING FOR THE SEASON TUESDAY EVENING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 152030 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1230 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEY ONLY DIVERGE A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THEY APPEAR TO HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ORIENTATION OVER THE STATE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DATABASE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SET UP OVER THE STATE AND WITH A 514 DAM LOW OVER HUSLIA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SLOWLY PULL OUT TO THE NORTH TO BE OVER DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN ABSORBS A 520 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC...AND ROTATES SOUTH TO OVER MANLEY HOT SPRINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A 549 DAM HIGH MOVING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE SPLITS AS THE LOW OVER DEADHORSE MOVES SOUTH WITH A 540 DAM HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE GULF OF ANADYR...AND NORTH TO A 547 DAM HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS OVER FAIRBANKS AND AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN. SATELLITE...SPORT 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMPOSITE OF VIIRS AT 15/1408Z AND MODIS AT 15/1422Z CLEARLY SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. IT ALSO INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 15/1500Z INDICATES MOST OF THE STRATUS IS OF THE MVFR VARIETY...THOUGH THERE IS A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A 999 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR DAWSON YUKON TERRITORY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATES. A SHARP RIDGE WITH A 1034 MB CENTER NEAR UMIAT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WEST OVER THE AREA WITH A 1039 MB CENTER NEAR BANKS ISLAND...AND A 1041 MB CENTER OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY. ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...RELATIVELY QUIET...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF DEADHORSE AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH IN THE PASSES THIS EVENING WILL TAPER DOWN TO VARIABLE AT 10 OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR 205 AND 206 OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAGS COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE YUKON DELTA...SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUSLIA AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG NORTH WINDS IN AND NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING TO 30 MPH WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST...TO BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TANANA VALLEY...AND FLATS WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION...WHITE MOUNTAINS...YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND THE UPPER KOYUKUK BASIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION IS THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 031245 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 345 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 03/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE...AND ARE EVEN TRENDING THE SAME DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM RUN TO RUN SO AGAIN WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 140W WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BE 500 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST TO MACKENZIE BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE AND LIES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC. THE 515 DAM LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY. A 534 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 13 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS CHANGING AS THE 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 140W WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND SLIPS SOUTHWEST TO 77N 155W BY LATE FRIDAY...AND 966 MB LOW NEAR 48N 150W PERSISTS BUT SWINGS A 974 MB LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS OF THE STATE. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0655Z IS AGAIN FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES. USING THE AVHRR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 03/0900Z THEY INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTON SOUND ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...PLAINS...AND BROOKS RANGE TO MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES TO MOVE ON...SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WINTER WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS WINDS KICK UP NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING IN THE BERING STRAIT AND KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND SOME DENSE FOG IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INCREASING WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 230 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AT 06Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. THE SEMI PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO AND A HALF MONTHS DOES TRANSITION A BIT WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT TRANSITIONS RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN SO WILL STICK TO JUST MAKING MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 160W WILL SLIDE EAST A BIT AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS DRIFTING BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. A 527 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE BAY TODAY AND MOVE WEST IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE MERGING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY. A 537 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER YAKUTAT MOVES WEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER KANTISHNA THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL SEE THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS BY SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEAK WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE 1042 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 135W PERSISTS BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA BUILDS TO 1036 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND...AND THE 970 MB LOW NEAR 45N 148W DRIFTS NORTH WITH A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 48N 135W THURSDAY AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0717Z IS FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS WITH THE LITTLE LOW SPINNING UP AROUND MACKENZIE BAY AND SPREADING SOME SNOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN...THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND EVEN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE..STRATUS...PATCHY FOG...A FEW FLURRIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE SEWARD PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING OR MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THAT WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 101130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH 540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 091157 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 257 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEY REMAIN IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF SOME OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. WILL LEAN ON A PRETTY EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN LEAN TOWARD NAM THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR...THEN TOWARD THE GFS WHEN THE NAM RUN ENDS AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE WEST. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CUT OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE UPPER KOBUK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 509 DAM. A 536 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE PART OF THE RIDGE THAT GETS CUT OFF AND WILL MOVE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTH IN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. SURFACE...A 1044 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN THIS MORNING THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE IN...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM 08/2159Z...08/2233Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT TODAY WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE TODAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THE AREA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING FRONT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TANANA EAST AND NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 241630 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1030 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 .UPDATE... VISIBILITY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT FOG/HAZE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WEST OF MADISON THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A REPORT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE NWS LA CROSSE OFFICE. THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO MADISON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE... BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING BASED ON DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... IFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW FAR EAST THEY WILL SPREAD... SO BROUGHT UES DOWN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MKE OR ENW. VSBY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT FOG/HAZE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WEST OF MADISON THIS MORNING. THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO MADISON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE... BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING BASED ON DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET. LOW CLOUDS WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. && .MARINE... ALLOWED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MRNG. QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT FOG REPORTED UPSTREAM ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS LIGHT FOG WOULD NOT CARRY INTO WRN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. MORE TROUBLESOME IS THAT WEAKLY CHANNELED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO SHAKE OUT SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM IN THE STRATUS SHIELD. LATEST KARX RADAR IN VCP-31 SHOWING INCREASING LIGHT RETURNS SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR NOW...WL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR -ZL AND FLURRIES IN WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS FOR WRN AREAS IF LOWER VISIBILITIES SPREAD INTO THIS AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC TEMPS WL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S THRU THE EARLY MRNG. WEAK LIFT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATER TODAY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF MUCH MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TNGT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY FOG RETURNING LATER TNGT AS LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY A SURGE OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA AND IL WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION. GREATEST DCVA FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SFC AND 850 LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO ERN OR SERN IA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL NOT BE DISPLACING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SO IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENEROUSLY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS THE SFC/850 FLOW ADVECTS THE MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPCH SFC/850 LOW CENTERS. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE MORNING WILL RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ZL- AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM PRECIP IN THE AFTN. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE WITH A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE SFC TEMPS AND LACK OF SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIP. SFC/850 LOW LIFTS NE FROM SRN/CNTRL WI MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSING THERMAL PROFILE AND A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. APPEARS BEST OVERLAP OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEF ZONE PRECIP WITH THE WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...PUSHING A COUPLE INCHES WITH LESSER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH WHERE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SECONDARY WAVES PRODUCING POCKETS OF DCVA. MODELS SHOWING VRY LGT QPF SO CHANCES THERE FOR LIGHT ACCUM SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER SUPERBLEND. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO TAKE THESE POPS HIGHER WITH HIGH CONFIDENT SNOWING/LOW QPF IDEA BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN A COLLABORATIVE RANGE. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK ESP ON THE GEM. 850 WAA MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 925 THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS ON BOTH MODELS WITH RATHER SLUGGISH RECOVERY. GFS 2 METER TEMPS TOO COLD. TRENDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/SUPERBLEND TEMPS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WITH THE SFC/850 FORCING WHILE MID LEVEL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTING SHORTWAVE WITH NO QPF BEING GENERATED. WILL KEEP SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW. ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE WARMER AND SUGGESTS MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP. GFS STAYS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM PROGS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS WITH WNW 850 FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 TEMPS PUSHING 10C WITH 925 TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL. SO COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH THIS REGIME AND AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS TO BE HIGHER THAN SUPERBLEND GUID. SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME COLLAPSING OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS WITH SFC FRONT BEING DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND WARM AIR RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REST OF SOUTHEAST WI NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK FORCING MAY SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR PATCHY -ZL OVER PARTS OF SRN WI...MAINLY THIS MRNG. THINKING KMSN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS MRNG. THINKING LOW CLOUDS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TODAY OR TNGT. SOME LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN ICE FREE AREAS OF NEAR SHORE WATERS. VESSEL IN MKE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18KTS AT 08Z. SRN ZONE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SEVERAL HOURS BUT WL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 240918 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 318 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MRNG. QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT FOG REPORTED UPSTREAM ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS LIGHT FOG WOULD NOT CARRY INTO WRN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. MORE TROUBLESOME IS THAT WEAKLY CHANNELED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO SHAKE OUT SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM IN THE STRATUS SHIELD. LATEST KARX RADAR IN VCP-31 SHOWING INCREASING LIGHT RETURNS SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR NOW...WL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR -ZL AND FLURRIES IN WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS FOR WRN AREAS IF LOWER VISIBILITIES SPREAD INTO THIS AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC TEMPS WL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S THRU THE EARLY MRNG. WEAK LIFT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATER TODAY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF MUCH MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TNGT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY FOG RETURNING LATER TNGT AS LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY A SURGE OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA AND IL WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION. GREATEST DCVA FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SFC AND 850 LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO ERN OR SERN IA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL NOT BE DISPLACING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SO IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENEROUSLY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS THE SFC/850 FLOW ADVECTS THE MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPCH SFC/850 LOW CENTERS. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE MORNING WILL RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ZL- AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM PRECIP IN THE AFTN. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE WITH A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE SFC TEMPS AND LACK OF SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIP. SFC/850 LOW LIFTS NE FROM SRN/CNTRL WI MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSING THERMAL PROFILE AND A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. APPEARS BEST OVERLAP OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEF ZONE PRECIP WITH THE WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...PUSHING A COUPLE INCHES WITH LESSER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH WHERE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SECONDARY WAVES PRODUCING POCKETS OF DCVA. MODELS SHOWING VRY LGT QPF SO CHANCES THERE FOR LIGHT ACCUM SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER SUPERBLEND. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO TAKE THESE POPS HIGHER WITH HIGH CONFIDENT SNOWING/LOW QPF IDEA BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN A COLLABORATIVE RANGE. .WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK ESP ON THE GEM. 850 WAA MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 925 THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS ON BOTH MODELS WITH RATHER SLUGGISH RECOVERY. GFS 2 METER TEMPS TOO COLD. TRENDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/SUPERBLEND TEMPS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WITH THE SFC/850 FORCING WHILE MID LEVEL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTING SHORTWAVE WITH NO QPF BEING GENERATED. WILL KEEP SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW. ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE WARMER AND SUGGESTS MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP. GFS STAYS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW. .FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM PROGS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS WITH WNW 850 FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 TEMPS PUSHING 10C WITH 925 TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL. SO COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH THIS REGIME AND AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS TO BE HIGHER THAN SUPERBLEND GUID. .SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME COLLAPSING OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS WITH SFC FRONT BEING DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND WARM AIR RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REST OF SOUTHEAST WI NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK FORCING MAY SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR PATCHY -ZL OVER PARTS OF SRN WI...MAINLY THIS MRNG. THINKING KMSN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS MRNG. THINKING LOW CLOUDS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TODAY OR TNGT. SOME LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. && .MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN ICE FREE AREAS OF NEAR SHORE WATERS. VESSEL IN MKE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18KTS AT 08Z. SRN ZONE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SEVERAL HOURS BUT WL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 192109 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 309 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS THAT THE BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME DECENT SATURATION OCCURS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...WITH MAINLY FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THAT SOUNDINGS DO EVENTUALLY SATURATE WITH 300-400 MB OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT AT ALL FOR SNOW GIVEN THIS SETUP. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM...SO WILL PROBABLY SEE CLOUDS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN SO...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SRN WI TO OHIO FOR WED NT AND THU. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AROUND THE HIGH MAINLY IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF MO CLOUDY SKIES DURING THIS TIME BUT NO PCPN. FOR THU NT INTO FRI MORNING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BUT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AS IT DIVES SWD AND JOINS THE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY NEWD TO THE EAST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF LGT SNOW THU NT AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING. ALSO THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING ACROSS THE SE USA WILL TURN THE WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI AND FRI NT WITH LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 12-14C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR LES BUT MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF AND OVERALL CONDITIONS APPEAR A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES THAN PRIOR DAYS. THUS INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRI AND FRI NT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLE. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WI SAT WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SAT NT AND SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. THE SFC LOW MAY THEN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE STATE MON NT AND TUE WITH THE MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A SHORTWAVE TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. && .MARINE... STILL SEEING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS VIA THE LATEST MODIS IMAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WAVES IN GENERAL WILL BE LIMITED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...BUT WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THESE ICY AREAS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 181127 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 227 AM AKST MON JAN 18 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...MUCH BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS FOR THE SHORT TERM AND IMPROVED MID TERM AGREEMENT...AND EVEN THE EXTENDED PERIODS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ARCTIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE WINDS WELL IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER NAM OUTPUT. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A PATCH OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AND OVER THE YUKON FLATS TUESDAY...BUT NONE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO HANDLE THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY...BUT NUDGE IT WITH THE SREF TO GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES THAN WE USUALLY GET FROM THE OTHER MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LARGE COL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A 505 DAM LOW OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST OVER NUIQSUT THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND A 522 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST BROOKS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES WEST OVER THE PLAINS AT 521 DAM BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY TUESDAY EVENING AT 519 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ORIGINAL LOW MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND IS ABSORBED BY A 480 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. A 543 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE OVER 75N 180 BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PUSH NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND A 520 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUESDAY WHILE A 511 DAM LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC AND NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS IT WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THE AIRMASS MODERATES PRETTY RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF 20 BELOW LEFTOVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE...RIDGING FROM A 1040 HIGH OVER SIBERIA REMAINS ACROSS THE ARCTIC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE 1025 MB HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A 1013 MB LOW BANKS ISLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW INTO A 990 MB LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY DRAG EAST. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO LIE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH SEVERAL LOWS SPINNING AROUND. THE PRIMARY LOW IS A 975 MB LOW NEAR 50N 155W. A 978 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST OF SITKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 988 MB...THEN IS ABSORBED BY THE MAIN LOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY A 969 MB LOW THAT IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AT 975 MB. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SEWARD PENINSULA. SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM SPORT AT 18/0852Z AND 18/0S35Z SHOW QUITE STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EAST OF NUIQSUT THIS MORNING. NO INDICATION OF IT MOVING...IF ANYTHING IT IS JUST MOVING SOUTH AND WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT IT TO STICK AROUND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATUS OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EAST OF EAGLE SUMMIT...AS WELL AS SOME ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MORE OF THE WINTERTIME NORM HERE WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND. MAYBE A LITTLE LESS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WEST OF NUIQSUT. OF COURSE ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF KUPARUK WHERE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH...AND SOUTH OF POINT LAY ON THE NORTHWEST COAST AND IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40 BELOW RANGE IN THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20Z BELOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE LULL IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OR BE CLEARING TODAY. A FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY EVENING AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM GALENA TO KALTAG. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES THEY WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND REMAIN GUSTY IN THE HILLS NORTH OF GALENA AND OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. LOCALLY BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TUCKED INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE NOT MOVING...JUST STUCK IN THE LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD PRIMARILY FLURRIES OVER THE AREA AS IT MOVES TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS...BUT NO SNOW. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW LOCALLY IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE YUKON FLATS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WINDS ON SUMMITS INCREASING AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WEAK TANANA JET CONTINUES WITH WINDS AROUND DELTA GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217- AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JAN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 171106 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 206 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM THE LAST FEW RUNS. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE MID TERM...BUT MAINLY BECAUSE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PRETTY STAGNANT WITH A BIG COL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEY HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER NAM OUTPUT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LOW OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND HAS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL BE OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE COL REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. A 517 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BANKS ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST TO BARROW. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL PULL BACK WEST A BIT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WEST. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PUSH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT THEN BUILD WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND THE EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING FROM A 1046 MB HIGH IN SIBERIAN CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER ALASKAS ARCTIC COAST...WHILE A 968ISH MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...SOUTH OF SAND POINT WOBBLES AROUND. A COUPLE WEAK LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE MAIN LOW...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH A 1030 MB CENTER DEVELOPING OVER MACKENZIE BAY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PUSH A BIT SOUTH WHILE THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTH A BIT PINCHING THE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TO THE BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT...STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SEWARD PENINSULA. THE STRONG WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK BEFORE LAYING DOWN A LITTLE. WITH THIS PATTERN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY...AND UPPER YUKON FLATS TUESDAY. SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 17/0808Z SHOWS MUCH LESS STRATUS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OVER MOST OF THE STATE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND COAST THIS MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THE STRATUS CONTINUES...AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SOME PATCHY FOG...SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...SOME FLURRIES...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COLD AIR OVER THE ICE COVERED ARCTIC WATERS MOVES SOUTH. A FEW AREAS IN THE ARCTIC PLAINS COULD SEE 40 BELOW LOWS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...ALONG THE COAST LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S BELOW WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BELOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF KUPARUK. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HELPED TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY SO EXCEPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY STRONG NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. NO CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP THEM GOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NOW...BUT SOME WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID WEEK. A FEW PLACES ARE REPORTING FLURRIES...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY JUST LOFTED SNOW BY THE STRONG WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TUCKED INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE NOT MOVING...JUST STUCK IN THE LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO MAKE IT TO THE VALLEY FLOOR TODAY...SO THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THE TANANA JET CONTINUES TO BLOW AROUND DELTA JUNCTION WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OVER THE SUMMITS EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY. WINDS MUCH LIGHTER IN Z218 SO WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP THAT FROM THE ADVISORIES. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT WHERE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200. && $$ SDB JAN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 161106 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 206 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID TERM...BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT DYNAMIC AT ALL AND THE MODELS ARE MOSTLY SMOOTHING OUT THE RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK...LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE BERING STRAIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW IN THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS MORNING AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING....AND OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THIS MORNING TO A 523 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES COAST AND A COL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND AS IT DEEPENS TO 508 DAM BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN GETS ABSORBED BY A 492 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN DIG IN AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY AS COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THE 540 DAM HIGH THAT WAS OVER NORTON SOUND YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. WEAK RIDGING WILL PUSH WEST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COL WILL EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS AND LEAKING INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING FROM A 1043 MB HIGH IN THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...WHILE A 974 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...SOUTH OF SAND POINT...CONTINUES TO SPIN. AS THE WEEKEND CONTINUE THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BIT SOUTH WHILE THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTH A BIT TIGHTENING UP THE GRADIENT FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEST. WITH THE GRADIENT BEING PINCHED EXPECT...STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR. WINDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LAY DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE BROOKS RANGE COULD SEE THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS INTO MID WEEK AT THIS TIME. ONE THING THIS PATTERN DOES GUARANTEE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK IF ANY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 16/0725Z CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY...AND THE GOES IMAGES INDICATE IT IS MOVING TO THE WEST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOTS OF STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES...RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. WINDS WILL NOT GENERALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT THE SNOW AND BRING VISIBILITY DOWN...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE SNOW AROUND AND CREATE ISSUES WITH DRIFTING SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW LOADING PROBLEMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW DOWNWARD SPIRAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT QUITE WELL DEVELOPING THE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND UP WITH THE WINDS AND WILL ADD Z208 AND Z213 TO THE MIX OF WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND HEADLINES AS WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE PROBLEMS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT INDICATING THE WINDS ABATING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY SO WILL PUSH OUT THE END TIMES FOR MOST OF THE HAZARDS. OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE ZONES. STRATUS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT MAY MIX OUT AS THE WINDS PICK UP. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS...AND MORE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND THE AREA. MOST OF IT MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY AND GOES IMAGES INDICATE IT IS MOVING WEST...JUST DO NOT SEE A BACK SIDE TO IT SO EXPECT ITS DEMISE WILL COME WITH THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN A COOLING TREND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. STILL DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. SOME STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLY TO 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THEY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE SUMMIT. TANANA JET HAS NOT KICKED IN YET BUT EXPECT IT TO THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JAN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 151136 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 236 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE WE SEE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. STILL HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...BUT NOT AS BAD AS THE SPAGHETTI YESTERDAY. THERE IS MUCH BETTER CONCENSUS ON THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PATTERN IS STILL PRETTY CONFUSED SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS AND ONLY NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE A BIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 524 DAM LOW LIES OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING. A RIDGE LIE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH 538 DAM CENTERS OVER WESTERN COOK INLET AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND. THE LOW WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL GET PINCHED OFF WITH A 541 DAM CENTER MOVING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING NORTHWEST INTO SIBERIA. THE EASTERN PART OF THE CUTOFF RIDGE WILL START BUILDING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY AND LIE FROM BURWASH LANDING YT TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW. SURFACE...WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 1003 MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. NO MAJOR FEATURES TO REALLY PICK OUT OF THE GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADIENT PINCHING AS THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH A BIT...SO EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR. SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 15/0820Z SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH AND EAST OF TANANA IN THE INTERIOR...OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE CHUKCHI SEA...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. HARD TO DETERMINE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY OF IT AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRATUS AND THE GOES IR FROM 15/1030 SHOWS A BIG PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC MOVING WEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT OR THE STRATUS GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST FROM POINT LAY SOUTH TO PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 25 TO 40 MPH IN THOSE AREAS WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ELSEWHERE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND MAY PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES. WINDS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA HAVE PICKED UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH IN SOME AREAS EAST OF ANVIK AND WILL DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY TO 20 TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF ZONES 210...NORTHERN 212...AND NORTHERN 216 TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BIGGEST ISSUE HERE IS WHERE IS ALL THE STRATUS GOING TO GO. BIG PATCHES OF BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA YESTERDAY AND THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM 15/0820Z SHOWS IT STILL FLOATING AROUND. HARD TO FIGURE ANY MOVEMENT ON IT AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MOVING ANYWHERE FAST SO EXPECT THAT IT WILL JUST DISSIPATE IN PLACE EVENTUALLY. OF COURSE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THIS TYPE OF STRATUS AT ALL SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH IT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS STILL EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...THE EXCEPTION HERE IS THEY MAY NOT GET THAT GUSTY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE SUMMIT. EXPECT THE TANANA JET TO KICK IN LATE TONIGHT ALSO WITH WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AROUND FAIRBANKS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15 BELOW...BUT LOOK FOR WARMER CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND ZERO. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB JAN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 141142 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 242 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE WE SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE BIG ISSUE IS THE HANDLING OF THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ITS EVOLUTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONFUSED PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECASTS A BIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 511 DAM LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT LIES SOUTHEAST TO SITKA AND WILL PULL BACK NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 521 DAM WITH THE TROUGH ONLY EXTENDING TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. THE LOW WOBBLE AROUND A BIT AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WILL LIE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AT 524 DAM WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT 528 DAM. TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 538 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY OVER SLEETMUTE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR LATE FRIDAY. CONFUSION WITH THE LOWS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE LOWS CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION AND MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 1003 MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. A 992 MB LOW WILL DRIFT WEST OVER KAMCHATKA. A 974 MB LOW LIES JUST SOUTH OF ATKA...A 993 MB LOW LIES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALL OF THESE LOWS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT MOVES FROM 42N 170W TO 48N 152W BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO 51N 156W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSISTS NORTH OF 75N IN THE HIGH ARCTIC. SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 14/0917Z NOT MUCH HELP THIS TIME AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC AS HIGH CLOUDS MASK MOST OF THE AREA. IT DOES INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND PATCHES OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS THE ARCTIC. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH SOME PERIODS OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. A 1011 MB LOW WILL MOVE OVER DEMARCATION POINT LATER TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE. NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WEST OF KUPARUK. WITH THE LOW MOVING TO DEMARCATION POINT THE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTHEAST...BUT WILL SWING AROUND THE DIAL AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THEN RETURN TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...998 MB LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO MAJOR FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS ON THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THE EXCEPTION ON THE COAST WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WHICH WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH EAST OF ANVIK LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPPER NOATAK...KOBUK NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WEEKEND TO 20 TO 45 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK BAROCLINIC AREA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST WITH IT. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING AROUND FAIRBANKS...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY...THEN SLOW CLEARING OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS AND ALL SUMMITS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EAGLE SUMMIT WILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TANANA JET PICKS UP LATE SATURDAY SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHEN THEY DO PICK UP. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15 BELOW... BUT LOOK FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ON THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND ZERO. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB JAN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPIH 110937 AFDPIH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID 237 AM MST MON JAN 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SAT IMAGERY...INCLUDING MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...SHOWS EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS MORNING AND EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS UP TO THE WYOMING BORDER. OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW GENERALLY IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVER LATE EVENING. STILL EXPECT TO SEE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS MORNING...SO KEEPING DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT TIL 16Z. NAM/GFS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING OUT OF THIS LOW CLOUD DECK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DROP TEMPS TO -12C TO -15C WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR ICE FORMATION...BUT ATMOSPHERE LACKS ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. MODELS TRACK A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. MEAN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY WHILE MODELS PUSH IN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WA/OR COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THAT NIGHT. HINSBERGER .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS FINALLY COMING TOGETHER ON THU...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ON THE SAME PAGE WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LINGERING INTO FRI. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SAT WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ID WHILE THE GFS KNOCKS IT DOWN. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER. COMPARED TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT. PRECIP DIMINISHES SUN NIGHT PER ECMWF...BUT THE GFS AGAIN FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SPREADS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCES IN THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND GO DRIER ON MON THRU MON NIGHT WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. NOT SEEING ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPS. HEDGES && .AVIATION...LOW CIGS AGAIN PLAGUE THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN...BUT WITH NOTHING TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE...LOW CIGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY KSUN SEEMS TO ESCAPE THE LOW CIGS...BUT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLDS TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTH. KSUN COULD SEE THE LOW CIGS EDGE IN BRIEFLY. HEDGES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR IDZ019-020. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSEW 311606 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 900 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN IT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DM OVER WESTERN WA...EXPECT TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF HIGHS IN THE 90S SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HIGHS AROUND THE REST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW IS LIGHT NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL DROP A FEW DMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY AS WELL...BUT STILL REMAIN VERY WARM. LOWS EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE PUGET SOUND AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TOO...IN THE MID 60S. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RECENT MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT A MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING...AROUND THE TIME THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT AND MARINE AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS WILL START A TREND OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. JSMITH .LONG TERM...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MORE AND SHIFT EWD OVER THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE TOWARD THE PAC NW. LOWER HEIGHTS AND ONSHORE FLOW MEAN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 80S AROUND PUGET SOUND...WITH 70S ACROSS THE N INTERIOR AND STRAIT. HIGHS AT THE COAST MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW SWD OFF THE PAC NW AND SRN B.C. COASTS ON TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY FALL TO THE 70S OVER ALL THE LOWLANDS...NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW COULD MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IF THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MERCER/JSMITH && .AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE. THERE IS A THIN LINE OF SHALLOW STRATUS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND IN THE WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS MORNING...BRINGING LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD RETREAT OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT. && .MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...AND GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED EFFECT OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MODIS IMAGERY AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE A PICKUP IN THE ACTIVITY LEVEL OF ONGOING FIRES IN BOTH OLYMPIC AND NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARKS SINCE YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING CONSIDERING BOTH THE DRYNESS OF AIR MASS AND THE EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS IS THE KIND OF WEATHER SETUP THAT HELPS SMALL FIRES GROW TO BECOME LARGE FIRES. HANER && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT. && $$ AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 250838 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 338 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND FASTER FLOW TO THE NORTH...CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FEED OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH...SECOND LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER SRN WI INTO TONIGHT BUT MAY THIN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS NE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SWD. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO M/CLDY SKIES AND ELY SFC FLOW...EXPECT SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPS TO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS BY LAKE MI. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. KBUU HAS BEEN REPORTING PERIODS OF DENSE FOG SINCE 06Z. PASSING SHERIFF REPORTS DENSE FOG VERY LOCALIZED IN THIS AREA WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGHER IN ERN CWA SO EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING JUST OFF SURFACE...FOG MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED THINNING OF CIRRUS. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT PRECIP AT THIS TIME. DID BUMP SKY COVER UP QUITE A BIT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BRINING IT THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NOT REACH ILLINOIS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE CANADIAN TIMING IS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TEMPS...TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS...AND SO ON FOR THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. POPS ENDED UP SPREAD OUT QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. GENERALLY STUCK TOWARD THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL EVENTUALLY SEE COOLER TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LIGHT SFC WINDS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS FROM FOG THRU EARLY MRNG. HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORE PATCHY FOG AFFECTING TAF SITES TONIGHT. && .MARINE... PERSISTENT NORTH TO EAST SFC WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY BEFORE VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THRU THE WEEKEND. WITH MOSTLY ONSHORE WINDS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING...FOG...IF ANY DEVELOPS...SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY. ATWATER BEACH BUOY CONTINUES TO REPORT WATER TEMP AROUND 60 AND LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED WATER TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SFC DEWPTS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO LAKE WATER TEMP REDUCING FOG THREAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 241923 CCA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 223 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS UNDER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A 100 KT JET OVER QUEBEC. UPSTREAM UPPER AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN SO PLESANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION FROM UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN REGARDS TO FOG. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3 DEGREES OR LESS. MESO MODELS ALSO SHOWING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL INLAND SO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSBLE IN THE EAST. .SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY /THURSDAY/ WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THIS TIME. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THAT DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 70S. .SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DISCUSSION MENTIONED THE THREAT OF MORE CLOUDS FROM THAT SOUTHERN WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THAT APPROACH. THAT WEAK LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT NORTHERN INDIANA/NE ILLINOIS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UP HERE AND SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SO WE GET A GLANCING BLOW AND IT SHOULD ONLY HAVE CLOUDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN. ANY PRECIP...AT THIS POINT...LOOKS TO STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THOSE CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS REMAIN VERY MILD. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE UPPER RIDGING/WEAK FLOW REGIME FINALLY COLLAPSES SOUTH IN DEFERENCE TO A DIGGING BROAD CANADIAN TROF AND MUCH FASTER WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN STAY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE BY THIS PERIOD. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO DRY US OUT THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG SHOT OF H8 WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND IT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH. THUS...WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF IT ENDED UP BE DRY THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN WI WILL LIKELY BRING IN FOG FROM THE LAKE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN STARTING THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT MKE...UES...AND ENW AT TIMES DUE TO DENSE FOG. PATHCY FOG LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN SO THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 241537 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1037 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 .UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN WI WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME FOG FROM THE LAKE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY EVEN START THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN SO THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /327 AN CDT THU SEP 24 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TNGT. MAJORITY OF ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. HOWEVER BOUTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIKELY TO SPEW MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SRN WI THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND ELY FLOW WL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABV NORMAL FOR 9/24. SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TURNED NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS DURING WED EVENING WHICH CARRIED AN AREA OF DENSE FOG AND 1/4SM VSBYS ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF DENSE FOG REMAINS TRANSIENT AND IS MOVING W-NW DUE TO E-SE LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SBM TO JUST WEST OF ETB TO JUST WEST OF UES TO BUU. THE FOG HAS NOT YET REACHED MKX WHICH IS IN FAR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON CO. UNFORTUNATELY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE WWD MOVEMENT OF FOG AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE EAST DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS PUSHED INLAND. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW RESULTING IN MOIST MARINE LAYER AFFECTING ERN AREAS. HENCE WL ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST AND NORTH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONTINUED QUIET AND MILD WX CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK. IN THE LOW LEVELS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH ESE WINDS. 925 TEMPS BOTH DAYS 16- 17C SO LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE/850 FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. NOTED AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL RH TO 80 PCT PLUS THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SSE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A STRATUS FIELD THAT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKY/TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE A CLOUDS A BIT MORE INTO THE EAST WHERE THE RH MAX IS FOCUSING. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT THOUGH THE BEST FORCING PROGGD TO BE TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF SHOW 925 SW WIND REGIME WITH WARM 925 TEMPS. DEPENDING ON THE MODELS VALUES RANGE FROM 19-23C...SO WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...THIS LIKELY TO BE A RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FAST SOLUTION...BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROPA. ONE THING THERE IS AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE POST- FRONTAL IN NATURE. THE LARGE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING CARRIES WITH IT A HUGE SPREAD IN THERMAL PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS PUSHING A PREFRONTAL 25C AND THE ECMWF WITH A COOLER POST FRONTAL REGIME OF AROUND 12C. SO FOR NOW WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND ROUTE AND HOPE THIS TIMING GETS IRONED OUT IN FUTURE RUNS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST MARINE LAYER CONTRIBUTED TO AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT MOVED THROUGH ERN TAF SITES SINCE LATE WED EVE. DENSE FOG AREA HAS REMAINED TRANSIENT AND IS MOVING W-NW. DO NOT THINK IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KMSN. 08Z SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG REDEVELOPMENT YET...HOWEVER LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MRNG. LATEST RAP13 DOES SHOW WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SE WI AROUND 12Z. HENCE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT. MARINE...ATWATER BEACH BUOY MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP AT 60F OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN LAKE SFC TEMP ON WED INTO EARLY THIS MRNG...DEPENDING ON SLIGHT WIND DIRECTION VARIATIONS FROM NORTH TO EAST. THE NORTH WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED A PERIOD OF UPWELLING AND COOLER WATER TO REACH LAKE SFC OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER LAKE TEMPS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AREA OF FOG WHICH PUSHED INLAND WED EVE AS SFC WINDS VEERED TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR MORE UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AGAIN THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ONSHORE AND LIGHT THRU SAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MARQUARDT TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 240827 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 327 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TNGT. MAJORITY OF ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. HOWEVER BOUTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIKELY TO SPEW MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SRN WI THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND ELY FLOW WL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABV NORMAL FOR 9/24. SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TURNED NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS DURING WED EVENING WHICH CARRIED AN AREA OF DENSE FOG AND 1/4SM VSBYS ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF DENSE FOG REMAINS TRANSIENT AND IS MOVING W-NW DUE TO E-SE LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SBM TO JUST WEST OF ETB TO JUST WEST OF UES TO BUU. THE FOG HAS NOT YET REACHED MKX WHICH IS IN FAR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON CO. UNFORTUNATELY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE WWD MOVEMENT OF FOG AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE EAST DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS PUSHED INLAND. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW RESULTING IN MOIST MARINE LAYER AFFECTING ERN AREAS. HENCE WL ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST AND NORTH. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONTINUED QUIET AND MILD WX CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK. IN THE LOW LEVELS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH ESE WINDS. 925 TEMPS BOTH DAYS 16- 17C SO LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE/850 FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. NOTED AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL RH TO 80 PCT PLUS THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SSE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A STRATUS FIELD THAT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKY/TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE A CLOUDS A BIT MORE INTO THE EAST WHERE THE RH MAX IS FOCUSING. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT THOUGH THE BEST FORCING PROGGD TO BE TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF SHOW 925 SW WIND REGIME WITH WARM 925 TEMPS. DEPENDING ON THE MODELS VALUES RANGE FROM 19-23C...SO WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...THIS LIKELY TO BE A RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FAST SOLUTION...BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROPA. ONE THING THERE IS AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE POST- FRONTAL IN NATURE. THE LARGE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING CARRIES WITH IT A HUGE SPREAD IN THERMAL PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS PUSHING A PREFRONTAL 25C AND THE ECMWF WITH A COOLER POST FRONTAL REGIME OF AROUND 12C. SO FOR NOW WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND ROUTE AND HOPE THIS TIMING GETS IRONED OUT IN FUTURE RUNS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST MARINE LAYER CONTRIBUTED TO AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT MOVED THROUGH ERN TAF SITES SINCE LATE WED EVE. DENSE FOG AREA HAS REMAINED TRANSIENT AND IS MOVING W-NW. DO NOT THINK IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KMSN. 08Z SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG REDEVELOPMENT YET...HOWEVER LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MRNG. LATEST RAP13 DOES SHOW WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SE WI AROUND 12Z. HENCE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT. && .MARINE...ATWATER BEACH BUOY MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP AT 60F OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN LAKE SFC TEMP ON WED INTO EARLY THIS MRNG...DEPENDING ON SLIGHT WIND DIRECTION VARIATIONS FROM NORTH TO EAST. THE NORTH WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED A PERIOD OF UPWELLING AND COOLER WATER TO REACH LAKE SFC OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER LAKE TEMPS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AREA OF FOG WHICH PUSHED INLAND WED EVE AS SFC WINDS VEERED TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR MORE UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AGAIN THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ONSHORE AND LIGHT THRU SAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 232025 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY .TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE REGION AS 100KT JET SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. CIRRUS CLOUDS LIKELY MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST CWA DUE TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING FOG TONIGHT COMING IN FROM THE LAKE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF ANY FOG DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG TO THE FAR NORTHEAST AREA WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. DENSE FOG AGAIN LIKELY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORTICITY MAX OVER WESTERN IOWA SHEARS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ARCING THE JET STREAM WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. WITH THE STORM TRACK FOLLOWING THE UPPER JET WELL NORTH...WESTERN FLANK OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. THIS DRY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AROUND CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW DRIFTING NWWD FROM THE SE U.S. TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH FRIDAY 925 MB TEMPS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...THEN BACK UP FOR SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS MID-70 HIGHS INLAND ON FRIDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAT INDUCES A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DIGS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER NEUTRALLY-TILTED WAVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SHARPER SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT DRAGS A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN WI WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP PCPN LIMITED TO NORTHERN WI WHERE BOUNDARY STALLS/WASHES OUT...AWAITING A NEGATIVELY-TILTED WAVE TO SWING THROUGH...DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE DIFFERING SCENARIOS ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS ECMWF DROPS THICKNESSES FROM 570 DM MONDAY TO BETWEEN 558 AND 561 DM BY TUESDAY AM...WHILE THE SLOWER WARMER GFS KEEPS THICKNESSES AT OR ABOVE 570 DM UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL FOLLOW BLENDED SOLUTION THAT BRINGS SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY TO THE NE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE ENTIRE CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SW WEDNESDAY ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN PCPN IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE FASTER ECMWF. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN THE EAST COMING OFF THE LAKE MAINLY FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WOULD AFFECT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME FOG OR HAZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEARSHORE AREA AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THAT AREA SO FOR NOW DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEARSHORE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 231538 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1038 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 .UPDATE... NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN THE EAST COMING OFF THE LAKE...HOWEVER THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT WILL THEY WILL BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW. && .MARINE... SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR THE SHORE TO MID 50S NEAR THE OPEN WATER WHICH IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF FORECAST DEW POINTS...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. OTRW...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/ CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE MID CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. SC MAY EXPAND NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP. ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST. OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION. LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT. HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY. ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE AREA. MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MARQUARDT TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 230821 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 321 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. OTRW...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/ CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE MID CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. SC MAY EXPAND NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP. ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST. OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION. LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT. HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY. ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. && .MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE AREA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 221609 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1109 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 .UPDATE... AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WAS SLOWLY MIXING OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AS IT MOVED INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST SHOULD LIMIT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...GIVEN 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS. LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF SOMEWHAT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER AT MADISON AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP AT WAUKESHA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA MAY NOT SEE THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP WITH LAKE BREEZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AT MADISON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY. THE EASTERN SITES MAY SEE THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN AS WELL TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TAF SITES IN THE 08Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MADISON AND KENOSHA...MORE VFR/MVFR AT MILWAUKEE AND WAUKESHA. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. .MARINE... SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE WATER. DEW POINTS DO NOT GET ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER CAUSING FOG IN SOME COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER WEBCAMS SHOW THE FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY. FURTHER INLAND...ANY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SUSCEPTIBLE LOW AREAS AND WI RIVER VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS UPSTREAM STRATUS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WI FROM ERN IA. STRATUS WELL DEPICTED BY HIGHER RH IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ON ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FLOW AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AND BACKING BACK TO THE SOUTH. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE STRATUS FIELD FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL IA...BUT SCT-BKN STRATUS STILL EXPANDING EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST WI/FAR NW IL. ALL GUIDANCE CARRIES HIGHER RH INTO NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING...AND SOME ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTN. HIGHER RH WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT THINK FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. CUT MAX TEMP SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON HOW FAR EAST BKN CLOUDS WL TRACK TODAY...BUT COULD END UP FROM SBM TO JUST WEST OF MKE BEFORE THINNING. UPSTREAM WEAK CDFNT OVER MN WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL WI TNGT. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...OR STRATUS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WITHOUT THICKER STRATUS. DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ABV 5K FT AND EXTREMELY WEAK FORCING...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES. DRY SE FEED CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WILL GO WITH THE DRY LOOK PER THE GFS/ECMWF. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY SE FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND STARTS TO HEAD INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A LITTLE UPTICK IN 925 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF A BOOST IN THE 925 TEMPS AS WELL. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A QUICKER PACE TO APPCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERATING SOME SHRA WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FRONT HANGING BACK IN THE PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS IT INTO THE OH VLY. WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPSTREAM VFR STRATUS OVER IA MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN WI...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN ST TO AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME TODAY. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BEGINS TO AFFECT ERN TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENW BUT WEBCAMS SHOW THIS FOG TO BE VERY PATCHY. FOG SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 12Z BUT MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS MAY HANG ON OR EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TNGT AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM AROUND 17Z/21 SHOW NEARSHORE LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 220830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER CAUSING FOG IN SOME COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER WEBCAMS SHOW THE FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY. FURTHER INLAND...ANY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SUSCEPTIBLE LOW AREAS AND WI RIVER VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS UPSTREAM STRATUS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WI FROM ERN IA. STRATUS WELL DEPICTED BY HIGHER RH IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ON ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FLOW AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AND BACKING BACK TO THE SOUTH. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE STRATUS FIELD FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL IA...BUT SCT-BKN STRATUS STILL EXPANDING EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST WI/FAR NW IL. ALL GUIDANCE CARRIES HIGHER RH INTO NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING...AND SOME ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTN. HIGHER RH WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT THINK FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. CUT MAX TEMP SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON HOW FAR EAST BKN CLOUDS WL TRACK TODAY...BUT COULD END UP FROM SBM TO JUST WEST OF MKE BEFORE THINNING. UPSTREAM WEAK CDFNT OVER MN WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL WI TNGT. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...OR STRATUS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WITHOUT THICKER STRATUS. DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ABV 5K FT AND EXTREMELY WEAK FORCING...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. .WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES. DRY SE FEED CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WILL GO WITH THE DRY LOOK PER THE GFS/ECMWF. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY SE FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND STARTS TO HEAD INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A LITTLE UPTICK IN 925 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF A BOOST IN THE 925 TEMPS AS WELL. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A QUICKER PACE TO APPCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERATING SOME SHRA WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FRONT HANGING BACK IN THE PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS IT INTO THE OH VLY. WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPSTREAM VFR STRATUS OVER IA MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN WI...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN ST TO AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME TODAY. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BEGINS TO AFFECT ERN TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENW BUT WEBCAMS SHOW THIS FOG TO BE VERY PATCHY. FOG SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 12Z BUT MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS MAY HANG ON OR EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TNGT AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM AROUND 17Z/21 SHOW NEARSHORE LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 181506 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 .UPDATE... A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. NOT ANTICIPATING THESE CLOUDS TO BE ENOUGH TO DISRUPT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KT FROM SFC TO 2 KFT. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN NEXT TAF PACKAGE. WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...SO A PRETTY GUSTY DAY IS EXPECTED. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH...THOUGH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP GIVEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROF IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODIS IMAGERY FROM LATE SATURDAY MEASURED RATHER HOMOGENEOUS LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH IS 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEVERAL DAYS AGO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPS WARM DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENTLY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVY IN EFFECT...BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING AFTER EXAMINING NEW FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY. GALE WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR OPEN WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE FLATTENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT...BUT IS STILL WEAK. SEVERAL BANDS OF HIGHER 700 MB RH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE RH INCREASING TO AROUND 70 PCT IN THE BAND LATER TONIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY CUMULUS POTENTIAL. THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS MIXING DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITHIN THE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ABOVE 850 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING IN THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT THAN THE GFS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GET CLIPPED BY A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NAM/ECMWF SHOW LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MORE WIDESPREAD. A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE IS SHOWING UP ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS...LITTLE TO NONE ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOME ELEVATED CAPE LINGERS ON NAM SOUNDINGS...LESS SO ON GFS SOUNDINGS. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS ARE MODEST ON NAM/GFS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM DOES SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS WET LOOK TO THE MODELS CONTINUES. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. CONTINUED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE NOW DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GFS IS QUICKER WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF. USED CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE MUCH FASTER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL BEGINNING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS WINDS AROUND 1500 FT INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY RISING LATE...THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL IS MORE BORDERLINE. MARINE... THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644-645. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 161824 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1224 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 .UPDATE... BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN UPSTREAM SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED AT THIS POINT...WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY IFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL THEN HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...WITH A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A 60 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...LIKELY CAPPING THE HIGHER END GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY TO KEEP MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF TAFS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF WILL PULL INCREASING DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COLUMN PWAT NEARLY DOUBLES IN NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO IA/MN AHEAD OF STRONGER DAKOTAS WAVE. SEVERAL WEAKER PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF -SHRA TODAY. THE FIRST HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED -SHRA IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD END EARLY BUT EXPECT UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE OVER NRN MO/WRN IA AREA TO TRIGGER MORE -SHRA OVER SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR -SHRA LATER TODAY. LIKELY TO BE A BREAK IN THE -SHRA THREAT FROM LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE BUT WITH PERSISTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE FOR -SHRA IN THRU THE LATE NGT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD T. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY MORNING WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK... BUT THE STRONG LLJ FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD AID IN PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDER. THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AND COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI WED MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BY WED AFTERNOON... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIXING AND THUS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THU. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WED NIGHT AND THU... BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW. IF IT SNOWS... A HALF INCH OR LESS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS OUT OF PHASE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF... BUT STAYS IN PHASE WITH THE GFS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE LATTER TWO MODELS PRODUCE A SWATH OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI FRI NIGHT WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS US DRY. THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO FLIP FLOP WITH THIS FORECAST A COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE COMING INTO AGREEMENT DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW BEHAVIOR... SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE VERY LOW. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THE LATTER PERIODS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST DO NOT HOLD ANY WEIGHT. THE ECWMF FAVORS A WARM SOLUTION WITH RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO COLD AND FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AND MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. THIS LOWER CIGS MAY NOT RECUPERATE DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA WANE BUT PERSISTENT SLY WINDS MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT AS MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS TOWARD/INTO SRN WI. MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SSE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND BUILDING WAVES. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND PORT WASHINGTON INFOS MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH. SOME FOG MAY HAVE TIME TO DEVELOP BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER...MOIST AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE MI AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 161527 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1027 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ADVANCING PRECIPITATION RUNNING INTO LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS RAIN AREA INTO SRN WI THIS AFTN. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER BUT EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO EVOLVE TONIGHT. MESO MODELS DO SHOW SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE LARGELY PREDICATED ON ANY UPSTREAM CLEARING WHICH LOOKS QUESTIONABLE ATTM BASED ON VSBL IMAGERY. SURFACE TROUGH PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING UPSTAIRS SO PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY LOW WITH ANY LINGERING MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. DRY AIR WILL HOLD SWAY OVER ERN CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR GETS REPLACED BY RAPID SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 0.75 INCH WL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND EVE. COMBINATION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA AND PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD WI ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL WI THIS MRNG. MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFN AND EVE AS SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS CROSS SRN WI. HENCE CONTINUED LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS INTO THE EVE USING OCNL PHRASING. SFC WMFNT DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION WL MOVE NWD BUT MAY HAVE TOUGH TIME CROSSING INTO WI DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER CONSIDERING OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS...CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES AND DEPTH OF WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 925-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH 850-300 MB FLOW NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS OVER 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...SO HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE LATER TODAY. CAPE VALUES MAY INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHEAR PROFILE QUITE FAVORABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ROTATING SUPERCELL LATE AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHTER WINDS AND POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SPEAK OF IS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...NOR ANY REAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALOFT. SOME MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DESPITE THIS. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT IN LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL...AS ADJUSTED AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH HIGH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT IN LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MAY END UP DRY WITH LACK OF DECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FEATURE ALOFT TO BRING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS ALSO FAIRLY CAPPED. HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. SPC HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR DAY 3...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING BROAD 500 MB TROUGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD THEN SEE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER/REMOVE THEM IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WOULD ALSO BE ON TAP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND HOLDS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TSTORMS. DEEPENING MOISTURE NORTH OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WL RESULT IN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MARINE... MODIS IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMP IN THE LOWER 60S. HENCE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WNDS OFF COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION PREVENTING GUSTIER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. WMFNT WL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MI THRU THIS EVE DUE TO CONVECTION BUT WINDS MAY TURN OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT BUT MAY BE A WINDOW OF SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT FOG/HAZE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME PREVALENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY UNTIL COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BEACHES... SOUTHEAST WINDS WL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET. HENCE A MODERATE SWIM RISK CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS. LATE DAY SWIMMERS SHOULD EXPECT TO STAY AWAY FROM PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EASING THE SWIM RISK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 161434 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 934 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 .UPDATE... OTHER THAN PASSING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOMORROW AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM LATE EVENING THURSDAY CONTINUED TO SHOW LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LATEST ATWATER BUOY TEMP MEASURED 57 DEGREES CONFIRMING MODIS INSTRUMENT MEASUREMENT. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CREATED BY THE MILDER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO REACH THE LAKE SURFACE TODAY. DESPITE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SOME MESOMODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 22-25 KNOTS LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LASTS THROUGH 6 PM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING...WITH NEW AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE WITH THE FRONT AND IT MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE OCCURRING. COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING DEPICTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. THE INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER ERN WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S. FOR TNT...THE POLAR HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL REACH THE MS RIVER BY 12Z SAT. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TNT BUT BECOME WEAKER WITH A WEAKENING WIND FIELD. THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE A FACTOR IN AN ALREADY COOL AIRMASS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING AT THE LAKE TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH FROST ALREADY FORMING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S OVER THE AREA...LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHTER. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER 925 MB TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S SUNDAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOWS. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMING ZONAL DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. GFS ALSO SHOWS WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH GUSTS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WINDS...SO LEANED TOWARD CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL VALUES OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THOSE FOR NOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN STALLS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS LOW PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS TIMING WITH THE LOW...AND BRINGS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL POPS FOR MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SCT-BKN CLOUDS FROM 5-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTERWARD DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT035-050 BUT WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER ERN WI FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES FOR TNT. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM DUE TO BRISK AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 160933 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF WILL PULL INCREASING DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COLUMN PWAT NEARLY DOUBLES IN NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO IA/MN AHEAD OF STRONGER DAKOTAS WAVE. SEVERAL WEAKER PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF -SHRA TODAY. THE FIRST HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED -SHRA IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD END EARLY BUT EXPECT UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE OVER NRN MO/WRN IA AREA TO TRIGGER MORE -SHRA OVER SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR -SHRA LATER TODAY. LIKELY TO BE A BREAK IN THE -SHRA THREAT FROM LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE BUT WITH PERSISTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE FOR -SHRA IN THRU THE LATE NGT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD T. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY MORNING WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK... BUT THE STRONG LLJ FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD AID IN PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDER. THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AND COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI WED MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BY WED AFTERNOON... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIXING AND THUS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THU. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WED NIGHT AND THU... BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW. IF IT SNOWS... A HALF INCH OR LESS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS OUT OF PHASE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF... BUT STAYS IN PHASE WITH THE GFS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE LATTER TWO MODELS PRODUCE A SWATH OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI FRI NIGHT WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS US DRY. THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO FLIP FLOP WITH THIS FORECAST A COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE COMING INTO AGREEMENT DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW BEHAVIOR... SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE VERY LOW. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THE LATTER PERIODS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST DO NOT HOLD ANY WEIGHT. THE ECWMF FAVORS A WARM SOLUTION WITH RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO COLD AND FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AND MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. THIS LOWER CIGS MAY NOT RECUPERATE DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA WANE BUT PERSISTENT SLY WINDS MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT AS MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS TOWARD/INTO SRN WI. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SSE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND BUILDING WAVES. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND PORT WASHINGTON INFOS MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH. SOME FOG MAY HAVE TIME TO DEVELOP BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER...MOIST AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE MI AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 160841 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 341 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. DRY AIR WILL HOLD SWAY OVER ERN CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR GETS REPLACED BY RAPID SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 0.75 INCH WL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND EVE. COMBINATION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA AND PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD WI ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL WI THIS MRNG. MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFN AND EVE AS SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS CROSS SRN WI. HENCE CONTINUED LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS INTO THE EVE USING OCNL PHRASING. SFC WMFNT DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION WL MOVE NWD BUT MAY HAVE TOUGH TIME CROSSING INTO WI DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER CONSIDERING OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS...CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES AND DEPTH OF WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 925-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH 850-300 MB FLOW NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS OVER 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...SO HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE LATER TODAY. CAPE VALUES MAY INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHEAR PROFILE QUITE FAVORABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ROTATING SUPERCELL LATE AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHTER WINDS AND POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. .SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SPEAK OF IS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...NOR ANY REAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALOFT. SOME MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DESPITE THIS. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT IN LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL...AS ADJUSTED AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH HIGH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT IN LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MAY END UP DRY WITH LACK OF DECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FEATURE ALOFT TO BRING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS ALSO FAIRLY CAPPED. HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. SPC HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR DAY 3...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING BROAD 500 MB TROUGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD THEN SEE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER/REMOVE THEM IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WOULD ALSO BE ON TAP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND HOLDS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TSTORMS. DEEPENING MOISTURE NORTH OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WL RESULT IN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. && .MARINE... MODIS IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMP IN THE LOWER 60S. HENCE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WNDS OFF COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION PREVENTING GUSTIER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. WMFNT WL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MI THRU THIS EVE DUE TO CONVECTION BUT WINDS MAY TURN OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT BUT MAY BE A WINDOW OF SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT FOG/HAZE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME PREVALENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY UNTIL COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .BEACHES... SOUTHEAST WINDS WL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET. HENCE A MODERATE SWIM RISK CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS. LATE DAY SWIMMERS SHOULD EXPECT TO STAY AWAY FROM PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EASING THE SWIM RISK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 151946 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 245 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKED SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI TODAY ALONG A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WIND GUSTS ARE PEAKING RIGHT NOW UP TO 35 MPH. DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE MIX... CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY DARK... BUT EXPECT OVERALL WINDS TO BE IN THE 7 TO 15 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER IN THESE DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THEY COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN MKX AREA COUNTIES FROM GREEN LAKE TO SHEBOYGAN THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/CAA/ WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH 925MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0C TO 2C. THIS YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT... COLDEST INLAND. KEPT FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL BE STEADY IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRI AM. PLAN ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S. .FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD ON TEMPERATURES...AS BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WRN CONUS WILL HAVE USHERED COLD 925H TEMPS AROUND 0C ACROSS SRN WI BY 00Z/SUN. THE THERMAL TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUN MRNG WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION DUE TO AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER SRN WI. JET AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EWD LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE THERMAL TROF LINGERING OVER EASTERN CWA FRI NIGHT...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS SPARSE. EXPECT A MODERATE INVERSION TO SET UP...SO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. ONLY AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN AROUND FREEZING. HENCE WILL POST FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...LIKELY TO BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING IN LATER FORECASTS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO UPSTREAM STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. .EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDECE...MEDIUM. PROTECTIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE COMMENCED ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ABATE ON MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE 850H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED 12-14C. APPEARS AIRMASS OVER SRN WI TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINCHED OFF DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WL EVENTUALLY PULL DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LONG TERM GUIDANCE BRINGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE WED TIME PERIOD. HENCE WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS IN THE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT TIME PERIODS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WL NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THIS TIME WL KEEP UPPER MIDWEST WAVE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. 925H TEMPS WARM INTO THE 12 TO 17C RANGE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN MILD THRU WED BEFORE COOLING. EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER BUT DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EVEN BY THE LAKESHORE. GFS 5 DAY 500MB MEANS SHOWING LARGE NEGATIVE ANOMOLY FORMING OVER WRN CONUS BY 00Z/26TH WITH POSITIVE ANOMOLY OVER GREAT LAKES DIMINISHING TO TENDING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM PLUME SHOWS TEMPS TEMPORARILY COOLING OFF FOR THE LAST DAYS OF OCT BUT RECOVERING A BIT IN EARLY NOV. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 6-7 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE UNTIL SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VFR STRATOCUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 5 KFT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF MADISON AND KENOSHA. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS... BUT NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AROUND 1500 FEET AGL. THIS IS MARGINAL LLWS SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... VERY GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CONFIRMED BY ATWATER BUOY THIS MORNING. HENCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...EVEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AS COLDER AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT FRIDAY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. $$ TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 151555 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1055 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 .UPDATE... LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN JUST SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL WI LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND USHERS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE MIX... WIND GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE WI BORDER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. FEW- SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5-6 KFT SHOULD THEN FORM FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE LATE. BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z/1 PM AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS... BUT NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AROUND 1500 FEET AGL. && .MARINE... EXPECT SPRINKLES TO FURTHER DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS MIXING DOWN TO LAND SURFACE. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CONFIRMED BY ATWATER BUOY THIS MORNING. HENCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL ALSO ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...EVEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AS COLDER AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKE. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTING AT 16Z...BUT GUSTIER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO DUE TO SPRINKLES AND LINGERING MID- CLOUDS ACROSS SRN MARINE ZONES. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES CURRENTLY OVER SW WI AND ADJACENT STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IS THE CATALYST FOR THE CLOUDS AND LGT PCPN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT ONLY FEW-SCT CUMULUS DUE TO DRY AIR ADVECTION. NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TNT. DID NOT MENTION FROST FOR TNT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AND LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS EXPECTED THOUGH...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED MOST PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP AS THE HIGH HEADS EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND THE DEPARTING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND...AS THE BLEND WAS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND TEMPS ALOFT HOLD...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE THOUGH...SO DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM. HAVE KEPT SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...AS A WAVE OR TWO AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN THE EVENTUAL LOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR. FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL THEN FORM FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TNT WITH FEW- SCT STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE LATE. FOR WINDS...BREEZY AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 16Z TODAY UNTIL 23Z ON FRI. BREEZY AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. BRISK AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THU NT AND FRI. HIGH WAVES WILL OCCUR OVER THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 150928 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 328 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. A BEAUTIFUL DAY LIES AHEAD WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT PENETRATION INLAND. 925H TEMPS IN THE 11-13C RANGE LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD MOST LOCATION...IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HENCE WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. MILDER START AND WARMER LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY 21Z SO BUMPED UP THE HIGH TEMP MOST LOCATIONS. REMAINED MORE CONSERVATIVE RIGHT AT THE LAKESHORE HOWEVER. SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF WILL NUDGE PROTECTIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL CARRY INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WEAK...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION ABV 4K FEET TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER CWA...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST. COLUMN PWAT OVER WEST INCREASES AROUND 0.25 INCH BY 12Z. .MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES AND TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AS THE MAIN CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB REMAINS OVER THE REGION...HELPING GRADUALLY TRANSPORT MORE COLUMN MOISTURE. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS GRADUAL SATURATION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR HIGHEST IN THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN. THUS...KEPT TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT...NEAR CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB FLOW WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT/LOW LEVEL JET POINTS INTO THE AREA AND GETS ROBUST DURING THIS TIME. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHWEST IOWA AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE MODEL VARIATION HERE WITH THE EXACT TRACK. STILL...SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL AND BEGIN TO OCCLUDE...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH SURFACE AND 500 MB LOW TRACKS...WHICH WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT VERSUS THE SLOWER NAM. ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SEEN WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITHIN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIR COLUMN. THUS...CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME LIGHT QPF SHOWS UP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE DRY SLOT ALSO PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MORE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WOULD GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A SIMILAR SYSTEM TO THE GFS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS TRACK COULD EASILY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... RECENT TAMDAR DESCENT SOUNDING INTO KMKE VERIFYING STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SO BUMPED UP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES IN TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMSN OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR TNGT. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD TNGT. && .MARINE... RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGING EQUIPMENT MEASURED COOL LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH ATWATER BUOY HAS BEEN PULLED FOR THE WINTER...INFOS EQUIPMENT AT PORT WASHINGTON MEASURED A LAKE SFC TEMP OF 45F AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT EARLY THIS MRNG. SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MRNG...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM MAKING INROADS INLAND. HOWEVER TIGHT GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN APPROACHING 20F AND WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP RIGHT AT THE SHORE. HENCE WINDS MAY BE VARYING BETWEEN SW AND SSE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT SHORE LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS LOOK LIKELY FROM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 060840 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. EXPECT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HENCE WILL CONFINE PATCHY LIGHT FOG MENTION TO EARLY MRNG AS PATCHY...THIN FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WARM...SOUTH BREEZES TODAY. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND 925H TEMPS AROUND 23-24C AND MORE UNIFORM SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THIS AFTN. THE WARM DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND THIS AFTN SO LAKESHORE AREAS WILL WARM AS WELL. PLANNING ON KEEPING ANY POPS TODAY CONFINED TO FAR WEST AS CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PULLING COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE TONIGHT. ALREADY DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY PWAT VALUES FLIRTING WITH 2 INCHES LATER TONIGHT IN WRN CWA WHICH IS CLIMBING TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PWAT VALUES AT THIS LEVEL MEASURING 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z/7. FORTUNATELY...SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT COMES ACROSS SRN WI LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MRNG. LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND PIVOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH MAIN MID- LEVEL WAVE. SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF WAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO CARRY WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT SO WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THIS AREA. BETTER CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST WI MAINLY AFT 12Z/7. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX AT BEST IN WEST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5.5 TO 6 RANGE WITH WEAK BULK SHEAR AND DECREASING ELEVATED CAPE. FAR WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THIS IN COMBO WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF 850 SW JET WILL LIKELY KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING WITH THE HELP OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE 850 JET IS EXITING AND THE SHORTWAVE IS OFF TO THE EAST. SO LESS FORCING IN PLAY THOUGH SURFACE/850 BOUNDARIES STILL IN THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING ALL DAY IN CASE ANYTHING CAN GET GOING. HOWEVER CONCERNED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AIRMASS FROM DESTABILIZING TOO MUCH. SO AFTERNOON COVERAGE DOESN/T LOOK GREAT AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MIDDAY LULL WITH BULLSEYE ACROSS SE WI DURG THE AFTN. MEANWHILE THE NAM SHOWS BULK OF AFTN DVLPMT ACRS NRN IL WITH THE GFS MORE OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND IS PROGGD TO MOVE NE ALONG SURFACE/850 BOUNDARY. 850 WIND MAX COMES INTO PLAY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED RIGHT REAR QUAD DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHWEST 250 MILLIBAR JET MAX ON EASTERN SIDE OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. POTENTIAL THERE FOR SOME HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW WITH SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST FOR TUESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP LONGER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. .WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH THE FRONT AND LOW PUSHING OFF INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THE PROGS SHOW A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD THIS PERIOD WITH WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY NOTED. SO PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE ELECTED TO GO DRY THIS PERIOD. .THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER FROM THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ACTIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE GEM NOW THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WI/IA FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS STILL CONSENSUS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT WAVES RIDING THROUGH. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE WAVES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IN PRIOR RUNS AS THEY ARE NOW SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHERN LOW POSITION WITH LESS OVERALL QPF. MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK WAA IS THEN NOTED FOR SATURDAY AS 850 WINDS START TO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO AFFECT KMSN UNTIL THIS EVENING AT THE EARLIEST...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MRNG ACROSS THE EAST. MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS INTO KMSN WITH T THREAT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING. && .MARINE...SHORELINE WEBCAMS REMAIN CLEAR OF DENSE FOG. SOME LIGHT FOG SHOWING UP AT KENOSHA HARBOR. RECENT NEARSHORE LAKE SURFACE WATER TEMP AS MEASURED BY RECENT MODIS IMAGES AND ATWATER BEACH BUOY SHOWS TEMP HAS WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS... MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO CURRENT SURFACE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SO AREAS OF FOG STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LOWER POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE. HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS MAY AFFECT SGNW3 THIS AFTN AND EVE WHERE ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS ABOUT 60FT ABOVE SITE ELEVATION. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 22KTS IN THIS MARINE ZONE. && .BEACHES...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AFFECTING LAKE MI BEACHES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN RESULTING IN A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT BEACHES IN THESE AREAS. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED SO STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 052134 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 334 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 32 TO 35 IN MOST AREAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL REACH IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR THE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO OVERCOME ON WEDNESDAY... SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WEAKER OF THE TWO PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW. AS STRONG 850 FLOW PUMPS MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SATURATED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SATURATED WELL INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFT...EXPECT THE SEE PRECIP FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHEN THE PRECIP MOVES IN THE PROFILE IN THE NORTH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW WHILE SLEET AND SNOW IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY MID DAY THURSDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TO SWITCH MOST OF THE CWA RAIN IN THE SOUTH. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC TEMPS WILL FLOAT VERY NEAR FREEZING. HOWEVER...SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING TEMPS ELEVATING ABOVE FREEZING BY 18Z...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL LEAVE THAT OUT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS MORE LIKELY. BY FRIDAY MORNING AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS SLUG OF COLD AIR SHOULD SWITCH MOST OF THE PRECIP TO SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...A ROBUST COLD CORE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SUPERBLEND BRINGS IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND CHILLS...WHICH MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TONIGHT SO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT. && .MARINE... RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BSH  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 051628 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1028 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 .UPDATE... NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CARRY LAKE STRATUS AWAY FROM WESTERN LAKE MI SHORE THIS MRNG. ALSO NEED TO KEEP EYE ON LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE INCREASING WINDS MAY CARRY STRATUS TOWARD NORTHWEST CWA THRU THE EARLY MRNG. OTRW NOT SEEING MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. 925H TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -5C. WITH HIGH ALBEDO...THINKING DAYTIME TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN WI WL REMAIN DRY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM UPSTREAM WEAK LIFT TO CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TNGT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM LAYER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARY DEEP AND IS MAXING OUT AT 1-2C...SO JUST WENT WITH MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THE SNOW IN THE SOUTH. MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND ALL RAIN SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAINLY RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS THUS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO GENERALLY LOW END SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES...BUT IT MAINLY LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 10 TO 15 RANGE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN SOME OF THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING UP TO AROUND 5 BY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS MIGHT BE A FACTOR TOO...WITH CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON LAKE STRATUS THAT IS TICKLING PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL LAKESHORE. SO FAR IT HAS NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2.5-3K FT BUT WINDS AROUND THIS LEVEL INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. RECENT DESCENT AMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWING S WINDS JUST ABV THE SURFACE AROUND 10KTS. HENCE THINKING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT KENW AND KMKE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW BULK OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND START TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST WI MOVING MOSTLY NWD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT FURTHER INTO WED IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 050946 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 346 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CARRY LAKE STRATUS AWAY FROM WESTERN LAKE MI SHORE THIS MRNG. ALSO NEED TO KEEP EYE ON LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE INCREASING WINDS MAY CARRY STRATUS TOWARD NORTHWEST CWA THRU THE EARLY MRNG. OTRW NOT SEEING MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. 925H TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -5C. WITH HIGH ALBEDO...THINKING DAYTIME TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN WI WL REMAIN DRY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM UPSTREAM WEAK LIFT TO CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TNGT. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM LAYER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARY DEEP AND IS MAXING OUT AT 1-2C...SO JUST WENT WITH MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THE SNOW IN THE SOUTH. MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND ALL RAIN SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAINLY RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS THUS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO GENERALLY LOW END SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES...BUT IT MAINLY LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 10 TO 15 RANGE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN SOME OF THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING UP TO AROUND 5 BY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS MIGHT BE A FACTOR TOO...WITH CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON LAKE STRATUS THAT IS TICKLING PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL LAKESHORE. SO FAR IT HAS NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2.5-3K FT BUT WINDS AROUND THIS LEVEL INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. RECENT DESCENT AMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWING S WINDS JUST ABV THE SURFACE AROUND 10KTS. HENCE THINKING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT KENW AND KMKE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW BULK OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND START TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST WI MOVING MOSTLY NWD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. && .MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT FURTHER INTO WED IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 030312 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 912 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 .UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. FEW FLURRIES NOTED ON KDLH RADAR MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF CWA THRU THE NIGHT. SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS MAY SLOW DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. SFC WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BELOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER N WI...IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS S WI ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. OVC MVFR AND IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED VIA ASOS METAR SITES IN N WI. CIGS BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.5KFT WERE REPORTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...WITH LOWER CIGS FARTHER NORTH. EXPECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK TO ARRIVE AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH S WI...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS FOR THE MKE AND ENW TAF SITES. && .MARINE...WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE AS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TUG MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS ON ITS JOURNEY. FOR NOW LEFT ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 15Z...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO SLOWLY DECREASING WINDS ON SUNDAY. RECENT MODIS IMAGE ESTIMATES THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMP TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 RANGE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS TROF PASSAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WERE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THEY SHOULD THEN LINGER SUNDAY...BELOW THE STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE LOWS SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY...NEAR BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THE GFS DIGS THE CANADIAN TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BECOMING DOWNWARD. 700 MB RH IS LOW. 850 MB RH IS HIGH INITIALLY...BUT DRIES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN LATER MONDAY. THIS CAUSES THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTH AND BRINGS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CLOSE TO THE WESTERN SHORE ON THE 12Z THEN WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BRIEFLY BRINGS LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MILWAUKEE INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB WITH MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION LOWERS TO NEAR 850 MB. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAKENS. THE 700 MB RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION BUT THE MID LAYERS REMAIN DRY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA LATER MONDAY BEGINNING A SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE HAVE NO PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A WEAK MAINLY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOISTENS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SNOW TO MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA REGION FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE MORE MODERATE ON THE GFS. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAF SITES UNTIL 03Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. AN AREA OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORY CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GO. FOR NOW...WILL USE AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER CEILINGS...SOME BELOW 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...TO OCCUR. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL 15Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL THEN VEER NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. HIGH WAVES MAY OCCUR MONDAY...AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE PUBLIC/MARINE...MBK UPDATE AVIATION...JTS TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 010226 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 926 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 .UPDATE...TEMPS DROPPED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING SO LOWERED MINIMUM SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT BAY. LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST CLOSER TO RIDGELINE AND MOIST MARINE LAYER. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...FOG LIKELY TO AFFECT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT LAKESHORE FOR A TIME...HOWEVER LAKESHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...KEEPING MOST OF THE LAKE FOG AT/OFF SHORE. DEWPTS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGH AFTERNOON CROSS OVER TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES LIKELY TO ALLOW FOG TO DROP VSBYS TO MVFR. WL CONTINUE IFR VSBYS AT KENW DUE TO HIGH CROSS OVER TEMP AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGELINE. BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING LIKELY TO KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY ELSEWHERE. RECENT ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG MIXING ABOUT 1K FEET OFF SURFACE. && .MARINE...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE FOG RAPIDLY EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY LAKESHORE WEBCAMS. MODIS IMAGERY ESTIMATED NEARSHORE LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTN. RECENT UPWELLING INCIDENT HAS CAUSED THE COOL WATER TO SURFACE AS OFF SHORE LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. WITH THE WARM...MOIST AIR STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...BOUTS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE WATER TEMP WARMS AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STRATUS DECK MORPHED INTO CU FIELD. EXPECT THIS TO DIURNALLY DISSIPATE. FOG POTENTIAL STILL THERE WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME AND HIGH DEW POINTS. HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT MORE STIRRING OFF THE DECK SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO BE A CONCERN. MOS TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH AFTER ANY MORNING FOG ERODES 925/850 THERMAL RIDGE LEANS INTO THE CWA WITH 925 TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SO EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90. EVOLVING ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK A BIT LAKESIDE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU NT.. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE RIDGING AREA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SRN WI FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG FOR WED AFT WITH LITTLE CAPPING...BUT ALSO LITTLE TO NO SFC CONVERGENCE. SOME MODELS DO HAVE QPF AT TIMES ALTHOUGH MODEL AND MOS POP GUIDANCE IS VERY LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED NT AND THU. HIGH TEMPS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS OUT FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A VERY WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES BUT WILL INCREASE ON LABOR DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN AT THIS TIME. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND GUID STILL SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE METMOS ON VSBY TRENDS. 850/925 THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO LEAN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. NAM SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH CU POTENTIAL. MARINE...WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIRMASS OVER COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE. SOME UPTICK IN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY BUT TRAJ FAVORS KEEPING FOG...SOME DENSE...IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING LONGER IN NORTHERN ZONES INTO TUE NGT. WITH GRADIENT LOOKING OVERALL WEAK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEAK MAY BE SEEING MORE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HEADLINES AS THE WEEK MOVES ALONG. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644>646. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 120934 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 234 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015 .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 40N 130W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A JOG TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST. DRY AIR EAST OF THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY SMOKE...AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. THE LARGEST CURRENT IMPACT FROM THE SMOKE CENTERS NEAR THE NATIONAL CREEK COMPLEX NEAR CRATER LAKE...WHERE HIGHWAY 230 IS CLOSED NOW BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 24...PER ODOT'S TRIPCHECK.COM WEBSITE. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF RECENT BURNING AT THAT FIRE...AND WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING EXPECT SMOKE TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 230 THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH SOME OF THE SMOKE AWAY FROM THE HIGHWAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY PATCHY SMOKE TODAY...MOSTLY ALOFT...IN SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. TONIGHT...THE MARINE LAYER AT THE COAST WILL DEEPEN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY AT THE COAST AND JUST INLAND. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW NUDGES CLOSER TO LAND AND USHERS IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IT IS NOTABLE HOW DRY THE AIR MASS REMAINS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND EVEN DRIER EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS DRY AIR...AND WEAK INSTABILITY...SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT FALLS ANYWHERE...SO WE ARE EXPECTING ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLUS...STEERING FLOW IS FAST FROM THE SOUTH SO ANY SHOWERS WON'T STAY IN ONE SPOT FOR VERY LONG. WE ARE TAKING A LITTLE LIBERTY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW MIDLEVEL MOISTURE VALUES...GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500MB TEMPERATURES. ANOMALY TABLES SUGGEST THE SOUTH TO NORTH WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY REPRESENT A TOP 5 TO 10 PERCENT EVENT FOR MID AUGUST. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE DRY AIR MASS COULD CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR HIGHLIGHTS THIS. ADDITIONALLY...WE EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM SOME OF THE DRIER AREAS OF NORTHEAST SISKIYOU...MODOC...AND LAKE COUNTIES. DRY AND STABLE AIR RUNS THE SHOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY THEN WARMING CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12/06Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...PERHAPS AS FAR AS KRBG...BEFORE CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST BY 20Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS DURING THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, INLAND AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT THAT WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD CAUSE LIMITED VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS. /CC && .MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST 2015...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE ALOFT COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WITH IT STRONG NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. ALTHOUGH STILL TOO FAR OUT IN RANGE TO BE CERTAIN, GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CC && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ORZ624-625. CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAZ285. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ281. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAZ281. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. $$ NSK/NSK/CC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KJAN 171948 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 248 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER AND TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT PLAYER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A COOL/DRY SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE COAST, BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RATHER DRY CONDITIONS AROUND DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH RH'S DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MEANING LESS GUSTY WIND. STILL, SUCH LOW HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH ANY GUSTS DURING DAYTIME MIXING WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS GIVEN THE VERY DRY VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT IN GRAPHICS/HWO THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL COME LARGER DIURNAL TEMP RANGES. WE SAW THIS LAST NIGHT, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT, WITH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GETTING IN ON THE ACT AS WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND ON THE HIGHER END FOR HIGHS. /DL/ LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH. BY TUESDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ENOUGH TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK IF WINDS EMANATE FROM A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE DROUGHT TO ONLY WORSEN WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAIN ANY TIME SOON. THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDE DAILY TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. /EC/ && .AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/ && .FIRE WEATHER...DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST TODAY WITH RH'S RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY, THERE HAVE STILL BEEN GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. MODIS FIRE DETECTION WAS ALREADY PINGING A FEW FIRES ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST RADAR ALSO APPEARED TO DETECT FIRES IN COVINGTON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE AREA FORESTRY AGENCIES, NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THANKS MEG/MOB/LIX FOR COORDINATION. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 42 73 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 MERIDIAN 39 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 VICKSBURG 41 75 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 HATTIESBURG 43 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 NATCHEZ 46 75 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 GREENVILLE 41 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 GREENWOOD 38 71 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075. && $$ DL/19/EC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 240652 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 152 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015 .DISCUSSION... AT 06Z, A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST EAST OF LEXINGTON TO JUST S OF NASHVILLE AND MEMPHIS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS FOUND FROM SRN MIDDLE TN THRU NWRN AL INTO CENTRAL MS. DEW POINTS WERE QUITE SOUPY THIS MORNING, SITTING IN THE L-M70S. AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT IN KY AND TN. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE A SMALL TSTM HAS POPPED UP IN LAWRENCE COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR AND WE COULD SEE MORE OF THESE THRU THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LINES UP WITH NAM AND HRRR RUNS THAT SHOWS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY PLAGUE A FEW AREAS THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING (~15Z) BEFORE THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, PATCHY THICK FOG HAS DEVELOPED, MAINLY IN SOME OF OUR RIVER VALLEYS IN SRN TN AND NERN AL. THE 03Z MODIS IMAGE PICKED UP ON THIS WITHIN THE PAINT ROCK VALLEY. FORT PAYNE (4A9) IS DOWN TO 1/2SM. WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCHC OF TSRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE WILL SEE DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE U50S-L60S WITH A NWLY BREEZE DEVELOPING. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP INTO THE L-M50S IN SRN TN, AND U50S- L60S IN NRN AL. FINE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY PENETRATE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH 50 IN A FEW OF OUR SRN TN VALLEYS. AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROF BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE SERN U.S., A SIMILAR PATTERN THAT OCCURRED A COUPLE WEEKS BACK, WE MAY SEE ANOTHER INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOP OVER GA/FL WHICH TRACKS WEST THRU AL AND TN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN WESTWARD, SO WE HAVE HELD OFF POPS ATTM. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO SEASONAL OR JUST ABOVE BY THE WEEKEND IF NOT SOONER. AK && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/ FOR 06Z TAFS...CDFNT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS NW AL. LOCAL RADARS SHOW THAT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER SCT/BKN CLOUDS ARND 6000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR THE PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 87 59 83 58 / 10 0 0 0 SHOALS 87 60 83 57 / 10 0 0 0 VINEMONT 85 56 81 57 / 20 0 0 0 FAYETTEVILLE 82 57 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 ALBERTVILLE 84 59 81 55 / 20 0 0 0 FORT PAYNE 85 56 81 53 / 20 0 0 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 091354 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 554 AM AKDT SUN AUG 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AK GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD AND FLATTENS AS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AK INTERIOR MOVES OVER. SURFACE LOW UNDER THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK THIS MORNING THEN TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AK GULF. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AK GULF. THIS WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXTEND EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SPREADING RAIN BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS. 6 HOUR QPF VALUES IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE. UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STILL ROTATING CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY ARE NUMBERED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT. NIGHTTIME MODIS SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD/FOG BAND OVER CROSS SOUND STILL IN PLACE. SO FAR THE OTHER TYPICAL FOG LOCATIONS NOT SHOWING SAME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY FOR NEAR PAYA AND PAKW BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE WAS BIT MORE DRYING YESTERDAY SO EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT NOT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG. WINDS WERE PREVIOUS DRIVEN BY THERMAL GRADIENT AND THROUGH THE DAY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MAIN DRIVER. BEFORE THE DEVELOPING AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEADING, BRINGING TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO HAVE SOME WEAK SEA BREEZE WINDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER N LYNN CANAL WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING WITH OTHER INNER CHANNEL SOUTHERN WINDS PICKING UP TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR AND STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LEANED MORE TOWARD ECMWF/NAM AS GFS WAS NOT HANDLING THE PANHANDLE SURFACE RIDGE WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE N GULF COAST MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER WRN INTERIOR AK. LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE N GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES INLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH...AS ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WED. THE THREAT OF ISOLD TSTMS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE LOW CENTER WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION YET...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. THIS STORM WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS 1-1.3" BEING PULLED N. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS OVER THE GULF WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF CYCLOGENESIS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS STORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY INLAND LEAVING A WEAKENING LOW DRIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THU. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE EC TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THU...WHILE GFS/GEM MOVE IT MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATER THU. WENT WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...MOVING THE LOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE MID THU. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT IN GENERAL MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW TO BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND. INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTED THIS WELL AND MOST CHANGES WERE FOR THE WEEKEND WHERE A GFS/EC BLEND WAS USED TO UPDATE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE DROPPING TO AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-042-043-051-052. && $$ PRB/BC VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 251153 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 253 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SOLUTION WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID RANGE AND BEYOND. MODEL OUTPUT NUMBERS ARE MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH THIS LATEST RUN SO IT LOOKS LIKE THEY HAVE FINALLY CAUGHT UP. WILL USE A BLEND AGAIN TODAY LEANING TOWARD CONTINUITY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM DEASE LAKE BC TO CHICKEN TO BETTLES TO POINT HOPE LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FROM MAYO YT TO COLDFOOT TO POINT LAY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY...AND OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BY SUNDAY MORNING. 500 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC TO BE OVER COLD BAY THIS MORNING AT 498 DAM...ROTATING TO NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND THIS EVENING THEN BACK SOUTHEAST OVER PAVLOF BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 500 DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS TO 510 DAM. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE LOW AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...00Z UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 17.2 CELSIUS BELOW SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMING ALOFT HAS BEGUN. UPPER AIR FROM MCGRATH SHOWED AN INCREASE OF AROUND 7 CELSIUS FROM 12Z LAST NIGHT TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS NEAR 2 CELSIUS BELOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY COOLING STARTS. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 951 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW AND RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST TO A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR CAPE HALKETT AND RIDGING EXTENDING TO WRANGEL ISLAND. THE RIDGING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW INFLUENCES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND AT 957 MB THIS EVENING...THEN ROTATE SOUTH TO 100 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE LATE SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN TODAY. TANANA VALLEY JET KICKS IN TODAY ALONG WITH SOME GAP WINDS NEAR PASSES. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY NICE FOR THE ARCTIC IN DECEMBER. MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WHAT I CAN SEE FROM DEADHORSE WEST ON THE GOES AT 25/1130Z AND THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 25/0815Z. GOES MVFR DOES INDICATE SOME CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT 25/0815Z...BUT IT IS PRETTY NOISY SO NOT REAL RELIABLE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR Z201. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH AS THEY SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MIX OF WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED A BIT OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GAMBELL OBSERVATION STOPPED COMING IN YESTERDAY...BUT SAVOONGA OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SO WILL KEEP THAT WARNING GOING. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING A BIT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG NEAR THE COAST...AND SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SUMMITS INLAND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT SOME GAP WINDS AND THE TANANA JET DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER SUMMITS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ209. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 241148 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE PAST FEW RUNS. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES AS THEY MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS. MODEL OUTPUT NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH REALITY SO THAT SHOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT EASIER TODAY. WILL LEAN ON CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT GFS RUN. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...499 DAM LOW OVER BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIES FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY TO CHALKYITSIK TO HEALY LATE THIS MORNING...AND MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO KING SALMON TO EMMONAK AND OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE OVER WHITTIER TO ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THIS EVENING...AND SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO EAGLE TO CAPE LISBURNE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS AROUND 100 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA THIS MORNING AT 500 DAM...MOVING TO 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 494 DAM BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...00Z UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 16.7 CELSIUS BELOW SO THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM IS TO THE NORTH BUT WILL MOVE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AND COLD AIR SINKS SOUTH. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY TO LIE FROM DAWSON YT TO POINT HOPE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EXITING THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A 1027 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO CANADA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW YT LATE THIS EVENING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THE PATTERN WILL BE PRETTY DYNAMIC OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES EAST WITH AND OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING NORTH TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...AS LOW OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH SOME CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING WEST OF NUIQSUT. THE 24/0718Z SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IS NOT SHOWING MUCH STRATUS AND WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA...IT SHOULD STAY CLEARED OUT FOR A WHILE...AND THE EASTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF ROUGE STRATUS THAT MOVE OVER AREAS...BUT NOT SEEING IT RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA INFLUENCES THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE AND PUSHES THE COLDEST AIR NORTHEAST. WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC DIMINISHING LATER TODAY...BUT WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLDER AIR TODAY WILL BE PUSHED OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WORKING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY NOON TODAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING WILL OCCUR PRETTY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA AS AREAS TO THE WEST ARE ALREADY CLEAR OR CLEARING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WARMING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH GAP WINDS AND TANANA JET DEVELOPING FRIDAY AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 231317 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 417 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING TO THE WEST COAST NEXT 24 HOURS...A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. COASTAL SURGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THERE IS SOME CONFUSION IN THE MODELS AS TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN ON CONTINUITY AND ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDDED DATABASE FOR THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 499 DAM LOW 200 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING...AND BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...THEN EAST ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND...THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LIE SOUTHEAST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE AND THE ARCTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL PUSH 530 DAM HEIGHTS AS FAR NORTH AS MACKENZIE BAY AND 540 HEIGHTS TO THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. SURFACE...BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS 970 MB LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE DAY. GAP FLOW/CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS. LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH GAP/CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA AND UPPER YUKON VALLEY DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MARINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL IS PUSHING SURGE VALUES UP A BIT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE MAXING OUT AT AROUND 7 FEET IN NORTON BAY AND 6 FEET IN NORTON SOUND SO WILL CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS...AND THE SCAMMON BAY AREA. THERE IS SOME SHOREFAST ICE IN THESE AREAS AND THAT COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS AS IT GETS SHOVED UP ON SHORE. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...GINA MODIS FOG PRODUCT...11-3.7UM AT 23/0624Z NOT SHOWING A LOT ON THE ARCTIC COAST. THERE IS A BAND OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARCTIC OVER WAINWRIGHT AND SOUTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND SOME STRATUS IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THAT IS JUST HANGING AROUND. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT IN PASSES WILL TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW MOVING INTO THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT...BUT MINIMAL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN TO EASTERLY AS LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LOT GOING ON HERE...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE CANCELING IN THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND ISSUING HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTH. CAPE ROMANZOF IS ALREADY GETTING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AND THEY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPES AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ZONES 209 AND 213 TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE OTHER ZONES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 18 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS THE LOW BRING WARM AIR NORTH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...JUST A GLANCING BLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM IS PUSHED NORTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. PERIODS OF SNOW AND EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AS THE SYSTEM RIDES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM FAIRBANKS WEST AND NORTH FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AS GAP/CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 70 MPH NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR DELTA JUNCTION. TEMPERATURES WARMER HERE ALSO AS THE CHINOOK WINDS WARM THE AREA. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ214. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214. WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ222- AKZ227. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212- AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB NOV 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 231108 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 308 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AT 500 HPA. MODELS ARE MAINTAINING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 84 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP. AT THE SURFACE THEY HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH AROUND 84 HOURS ALSO. MOVING INTO THE MIDTERM THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AREA WITH THE AXIS FROM KUPARUK TO CORDOVA THIS MORNING. A 534 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY TODAY AND SLIDE EAST AND NORTH WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER BARTER ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE RIDGE THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM OVER ADAK TO POINT LAY AND INTO THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING...ROTATING TO LIE FROM ATKA TO SLEETMUTE TO DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDES EAST TO LIE FROM CORDOVA TO EAGLE AND NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AT 518 DAM THURSDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AT 516 DAM FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM THE LOW TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET BY FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUING EAST INTO THE YUKON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO CAPE NEWENHAM THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM POINT LAY TO TO WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BREAK DOWN THE COLD AIR AND PUSH THE ZERO ISOTHERM SOUTH TO LIE FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO MCGRATH TO CORDOVA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE...1000 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE LIES FROM COLD BAY TO MCGRATH TO BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM COLD BAY TO DENALI PARK TO BANKS ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...SLIDING INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW NEARING WRANGEL ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT WORKING INLAND TO LIE FROM POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET AND CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM BARROW TO MCGRATH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ARCTIC A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST...SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST OF BARROW THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN AREAS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST COAST SOUTH OF POINT LAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH...ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH. RAIN MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN CHANGING TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING MAY START OUT AS SNOW IN AREAS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA...BUT CHANGE TO RAIN BY NOON IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WORK INLAND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. INLAND AREA WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES RISING 3 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME...BUT THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH OVER THAT AREA. && .SATELLITE...STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AND IN THE INTERIOR STANDS OUT PRETTY GOOD ON THE SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 23/0833Z PRODUCT. NOT SEEING MUCH MOVEMENT IN EITHER AREA. STRATUS ON THE WEST COAST IS MASKED BY THE HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 23/0845Z AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VAST AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WIDE BAND OF STRATUS INDICATED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225. && $$ SDB SEP 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 222050 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1250 PM AKDT WED JUL 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO 120 HOURS OR SO. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AGAIN TODAY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS DRIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A 564 DAM HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A 547 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 552 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA. SURFACE...PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. 1003 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES EAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND MERGES WITH A 997 MB LOW AS THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES SOUTHEAST. LATE THURSDAY EVENING THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC PERSISTS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC TODAY...AND WILL ROTATE WEST TO THE DATELINE AND CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT AT 22/1637Z SHOW THE STRATUS ON THE ARCTIC HAS MOVED INLAND OFF THE COAST BETWEEN BARROW AND PRUDHOE BAY AND THE CLEARING CORRELATES QUITE WELL WITH THE POSITION OF THE 564 DAM HIGH AT 500 HPA. EXPECT CLEARING NORTH OF POINT LAY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES WEST...WITH STRATUS FLOWING BACK OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS FROM EAST TO WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE. THE CLEARING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL SWING A FRONT TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS...BUT EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING TAPERING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND AROUND MINCHUMINA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THEN A REPEAT TOMORROW FOR THE ALASKA RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE...NO SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS SINCE 22/0918Z SO NO HELP THERE...BUT THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT FROM 22/1637 CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE ARCTIC CRUSHING THE STRATUS AS IT MOVES WEST. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS STILL TRENDING TO A SOLUTION WITH A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER YUKON. STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR EAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL FOCUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALASKA RANGE AND ADJACENT ZONES TODAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. OVERALL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MIN RH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS HAVE ALL LEVELED OFF AND WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO NO ISSUES AT THIS TIME AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUL 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 221217 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 317 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO...THEN DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES SHOW UP BUT THEY ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE BALLPARK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE OVER THE ARCTIC AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THEY DO AGREE THAT THIS WILL BE A HIT AND RUN COLD SNAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD WITH SOME OF THE MODELS HANGING ON TO CLOUDS WHILE OTHERS CLEAR US OUT RAPIDLY. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE NAM SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN DOING A LITTLE BETTER JOB OF LATE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. 498 DAM LOW OVER BARROW WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 495 DAM THEN MOVES EAST OVER DEMARCATION POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO CANADA. A RIDGE WILL CUTOFF THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER BARROW TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM OVER NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO MCGRATH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN FROM BARTER ISLAND TO CHALKYITSIK TO DOT LAKE THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE THAT CUTS OFF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR. THE RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC NORTH OVER KING SALMON TO EMMONAK TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE OVER WHITTIER TO ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING...AND SITKA TO TANANA TO POINT HOPE FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO EAGLE TO POINT LAY LATE FRIDAY. A 531 DAM HIGH WILL BREAK OFF THE RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK FLATS...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUTOFF TROUGH WILL WILL MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING OFF SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA AND DIG INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING AT 502 DAM...THEN OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 498 DAM FRIDAY MORNING...AND OVER SAND POINT SATURDAY MORNING AT 516 DAM. AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM LIES FROM CHALKYITSIK TO AMBLER TO GAMBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH A BIT AND WILL LIE FROM EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO NENANA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK NORTH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. SURFACE...RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN OVER THE AREAS WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. WEAK EAST TO WEST TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE ARCTIC. PATTERN A BIT MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY...THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY WITH A 1028 MB HIGH OVER AMBLER THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING TO FAIRBANKS AT 1031 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CANADA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 964 MB...THEN OSCILLATE AROUND A BIT OVER THE BERING SEA BEFORE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AT 951 MB THURSDAY EVENING...AND OVER UNIMAK ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 962 MB. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC ABOUT 150 MILES OFFSHORE THAT IS DRAGGING EAST. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0731Z PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS...SOME PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE PASSES THAT HAVE COLD AIR RUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THEM. TEMPERATURES STEADY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE PLAINS FALLING TO AROUND 40 BELOW WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE BERING SEA THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SOME FLURRIES WITH THAT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SO WILL THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES SO ONLY EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. COLD AIR DIGGING SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN AS THE SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF ANVIK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW OF THE INTERIOR AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE 40 BELOW RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND THE BERING STRAIT WHICH WILL SEE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM SINCE THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS OUT THE CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS HANG IN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE AROUND. THAT WOULD KEEP US MUCH WARMER THAN IF WE CLEAR OUT IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES DIFFERENT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 221028 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 228 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AT 500 HPA AS THEY CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. AT THE SURFACE SHORT TERM LOOKS GOOD...BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDTERM THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HANDLING OF THE EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA. MODELS MAINTAIN SOME SIMILARITY EVEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ALCAN AREA WITH 533 DAM LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ALCAN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. BUILDING RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW THAT MOVES TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AT 850 HPA...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY...STRONGEST OVER THE WEST COAST. ZERO ISOTHERM WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES REACHING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY LATE THURSDAY. SURFACE...999 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND LIES FROM ADAK TO ST PAUL ISLAND TO NOME TO NUIQSUT TO BANKS ISLAND THIS MORNING. WEDNESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM COLD BAY TO SLEETMUTE TO BETTLES TO BANKS ISLAND...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM KING SALMON TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO OLD CROW THEN EAST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. FRONT MOVES OVER THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND...THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND BE PUSHED INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING BY THE ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ARCTIC COAST...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY. NOT MUCH GOING ON TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. STRATUS CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE. WINDS ARE TURNING TO OFFSHORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH AROUND CAPE LISBURNE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE RIDGE WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA MEANS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH WILL START ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 0.75 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN...WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FROM DENALI PARK WEST TODAY AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...OTHERWISE CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. INCREASED SURF CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTON SOUND...KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE NORTHWEST COAST...AND AROUND BARROW. MODELED COASTAL SURGE IN THOSE AREAS IS CURRENTLY UP TO 2.5 FEET WHICH IS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR BARROW...KOTZEBUE...AND SHISHMAREF. && .HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER NOATAK WITH THE INCOMING RAINFALL. && .SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0749Z SHOWS A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND A BIG PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE TANANA FLATS AND OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 22/0930Z AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SDB SEP 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 212125 CCA AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 125 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO 120 HOURS OR SO. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE OVER EXUBERANT WITH THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR COVERAGE. THE 850 TEMPERATURE INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z UPPER AIR AT MOST SITES...THE EXCEPTION WAS BARROW AND THEY INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE TOO COLD. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 568 DAM HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND A 598 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A 544 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. COL DEVELOPS INTO A TROUGH AS THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS TO 565 DAM...THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEAKENS A LITTLE...AND THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA PUSHES EAST OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. SURFACE...RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND STRENGTHEN A BIT WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP...THEN RELAX FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SWINGS TO THE WEST NEAR THE DATELINE. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN YUKON TO COPPER RIVER BASIN TO UPPER KUSKOKWIM TO BERING STRAIT TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 16 HOURS WHEN A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...THEN MOVES TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER BARREN ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...EAST OF POINT LAY OVER THE COAST STRATUS...FOG...WINDS...NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH CHANGE HERE. MODIS SPORT 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS REACHING ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND OVER THE PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY INLAND DURING THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AT TIMES...BUT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW IN OFF THE ARCTIC AND WITH IT STRATUS. NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY...THEN START TO DIMINISH. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. INLAND AREAS ON THE PLAINS AND THE BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTH OF POINT LAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE COASTAL AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO GALENA TO MINCHUMINA AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF KALTAG AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE SOME SHOWERS MAY LEAK INTO DENALI NP AND AROUND LAKE MINCHUMINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE RANGE...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO GET NORTH OF THE RANGE...THEN SOME OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAINS...AND DENSE FOG OVER THE YUKON RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FOG IN OVER THE YUKON RIVER IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 21/1600Z. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR STARTING SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH SOME DRYING IN THE CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING BACK BELOW 40 PERCENT. THERMAL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE COAST. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS RUNNING UP A BIT FROM THE LAST RAIN EVENT...BUT NOT NEAR ANY ACTION STAGE. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS TRENDING SLOWLY UP STILL BUT THEY WILL START TO TREND DOWN AS WEEK GET INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUL 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 152233 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 133 PM AKST SUN NOV 15 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. NEAR TERM THROUGH 36 HOURS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BEYOND THAT THEY START DIVERGING RAPIDLY ON POSITION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES WITH THE GFS MOVING THINGS EAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC AND CANADIAN MODELS...AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE CURRENT DATABASE AND MODELS FOR FIRST 36 TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY...AND LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH A BLEND FOR THE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. EXTENDED PERIODS WILL GET MORE INTERESTING AS THE MODELS SHOW BIGGER SPREADS AS WE MOVE INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A 506 DAM LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE YUKON. A 508 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE UPPER KOBUK BY MONDAY EVENING. A 498 DAM LOW ON THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME STATIONARY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BUILD NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT DEEPENS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO CHIGNIK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES EAST AS I MASHES THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT AND WILL LIE FROM COLDFOOT TO CORDOVA BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES INTO THE YUKON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...COASTAL AREAS A BIT WARMER. AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID RANGE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START OVER THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...AND EVENTUALLY OVER MOST OF THE STATE. SURFACE...996 MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A 988 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING. THE 988 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. A 994 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ARCTIC WILL REMAIN WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY AT 15/1519Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WITH MORE NORTH OF THE COAST MOVING SOUTH. SO EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES OVER THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. MAINLY FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH WINDS EAST OF BARROW WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. MID WEEK WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL SEND SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL ISSUES...BUT WILL WATCH IT CLOSELY SINCE A SMALL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THE LOWS COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST. A FEW FLURRIES OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE ABOUT IT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS ST LAWRENCE AND TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TUESDAY EVENING...THEN TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS LIGHT WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS MONDAY EVENING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING UP. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AND THOSE WILL MAINLY BE INDUSTRIAL TYPE FLURRIES...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE CLOUDY AREAS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS MOVE TO THE AREA. MODELS STILL SHOWING QUIET A BIT OF SPREAD IN SPEED AND LOCATION. AS IT STANDS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEMS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT SHOULD NOT CREATE MANY PROBLEMS FOR AREAS NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...BUT IF THE LOWS END UP BEING FURTHER NORTH THAT WOULD BRING MORE PROBLEMS TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225. && $$ SDB NOV 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 142125 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 125 PM AKDT FRI AUG 14 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF MAJOR FEATURES OVER THE ARCTIC AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID AND EXTENDED PERIODS...PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION A BIT MORE SINCE IS APPEARS TO BE MORE SEASONALLY CORRECT SO IT WILL BE THE MAJORITY OF ANY BLEND. PRECIPITATION WISE ALL THE MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SAME WAY SO WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A LEAN ON THE SREF FOR PROBABILITIES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE WITH 564 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LIES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A SECOND BRANCH OF THE RIDGE LIES FROM SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...AND WILL SLIDE EAST TO LIE FROM YAKUTAT TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TO POINT HOPE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 564 DAM HEIGHT REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...THEN FROM DAWSON TO ATIGUN PASS TO POINT LAY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND LIE FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO SOUTHWEST KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM MCGRATH TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN A COOLING TREND. ZERO ISOTHERM IS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT LAY TO NUIQSUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME STATIONARY...THEN SLIP SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT LAY THEN ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO BARTER ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WEAK RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND EXTEND EAST ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SATURDAY. TROUGH WILL LIE FROM ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN EAST TO BETTLES AND SOUTHEAST TO DAWSON YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING...REMAINING RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TROUGHING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SHOWERS ENDING TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE COOLER BUT NOT EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATQASUK TO NUIQSUT. WINDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SURFACE LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND EAST OVER THE LOWER YUKON SOUTH OF GALENA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE NEXT 36 HOURS OF AROUND 0.50 INCH. WINDS ON THE COAST GENERALLY OFFSHORE 5 TO 15 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...DIRTY RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A COOLING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF FAIRBANKS...SOUTH OF FORT YUKON...AND NORTH OF CHICKEN SATURDAY EVENING. && .SATELLITE...QUITE A BIT OF MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT FROM 14/1745Z...MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT...AND AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN MOST OF THE ARCTIC EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SINCE IT WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...QUIET. SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE...IF NOT WELL ABOVE...30 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXCELLENT RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF THE TOK CUTOFF WHICH WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 132148 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1248 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. AFTER 12 HOURS WILL PRIMARILY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE NEW GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECASTS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PERSISTENCE FOR MOST AREAS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM 497 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND OVER ARCTIC VILLAGE TO DENALI PARK TO ILLIAMNA AND WILL MOVE INTO CANADA LATE THIS EVENING...A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST OVER DEADHORSE TO AMBLER AND WILL ROTATE EAST TO LIE FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MINCHUMINA LATE THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF DEADHORSE WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER HELMUT MOUNTAIN TO CENTRAL TO TALKEETNA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMING STATIONARY. A 500 DAM LOW IN SOUTHERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 200 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THEN MOVE SOUTH AROUND 502 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER TANANA. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...978 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 985 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND MOVES NEAR CORDOVA. THE LOW WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW IN SOUTHERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEAST TO THE PRIBILOFS BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW IN THE GULF. A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY AT 12/1943Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AROUND THE LOW NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND AS WELL AS OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTHWEST COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MOVEMENT TO THE EAST IN THE STRATUS AROUND THE LOW...WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTHWEST COAST BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC...THE LOW IS NOT MOVING SOON...SO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANG AROUND. ON THE NORTHWEST COAST STRATUS WILL PERSIST...BUT EXPECT IT TO MOVE EAST INTO BARROW THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER AND TO NUIQSUT THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH...BUT EXPECT COLDER IF IT CLEARS OUT. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE EAST OF DEADHORSE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALL IN ALL PRETTY QUIET. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING...BUT NOT UNSEASONABLY COLD...AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT ON THE MOST WESTERN CAPES WHICH WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. ST LAWRENCE ISLAND COULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE ONLY 2 TO 4 INCHES AT MOST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO FIGURE OUT WITH THE BENIGN PATTERN NOT MUCH IS MOVING AROUND SO AREAS MAY SEE FOG AND STRATUS HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOOKING LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GOING TO HANG AROUND THE AREAS SO SPITTY FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG WITH CONTINUE. LOW THAT SLUNG SOME SNOW OVER THE UPPER TANANA AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY IS MOVING OFF SO THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS PRETTY DIRTY SO WILL KEEP MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES UNLESS AN AREA CLEARS OUT ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW THEM TO BOTTOM OUT. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS...BUT AT THIS TIME MODEL SPREAD IT TOO BIG SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220- PKZ225. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB NOV 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 122112 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1212 PM AKST THU NOV 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCE IS IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE POSITIONS. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY USING A BLEND OF THE CURRENT DATABASE AND MODELS. WILL NUDGE THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UP A BIT WITH THE SREF. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH A A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BERING STRAIT. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM A 494 DAM LOW IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWEST OVER BARTER ISLAND TO GALENA. AS THE ARCTIC LOW SLOWLY MOVES WEST THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM OVER BARTER ISLAND TO DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 500 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER DELTA JUNCTION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WHICH WILL BE JUST NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO KOTZEBUE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW OVER DELTA JUNCTION WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 504 DAM WHILE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM BARTER ISLAND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO SLEETMUTE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 499 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO YAKUTAT THIS EVENING SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE ENHANCED BY A TRANSITORY RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN IS SHOVED SOUTH BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SATURDAY. A 495 DAM LOW OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 20 BELOW BY LATE SATURDAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. SURFACE...963 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OVER GUSTAVUS TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 974 MB. THE LOW THEN SPLITS WITH A 981 MB LOW REGRESSING BACK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A 981 MB LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. A 987 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. MOISTURE WILL SWING NORTH AROUND THE LOW SPREADING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND NORTH TO THE YUKON RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. A ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A LOW OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA THIS EVENING REMAINING OVER THE AREA...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER COLD BAY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS IMAGERY AT 12/1539Z SHOWS A PRETTY DISTINCT CLEARING LINE OVER THE ARCTIC. BARROW HAS CLEARED OUT AND IR SATELLITE INDICATES THE CLEARING LINE IS CONTINUING SLOWLY SOUTH AND IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THE NEXT WAVE WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT FLURRIES IN AREAS WITH CLOUDS WITH NO ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR THE ARCTIC COAST...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND BARTER ISLAND WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SINCE THERE IS SOME CLEARING GOING ON AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IF IT STAYS CLEAR. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...AND LOWER YUKON DELTA. SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MOVING EAST TOMORROW OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION. ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA COAST COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INLAND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER KOYUKUK RIVER IS KICKING OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECT IN THE INLAND AREAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TREND NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS ON THE COAST TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 25 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND LOWER YUKON DELTA COASTS. INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOW IN THE GULF IS SPINNING MOISTURE UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT MOVING NORTH AND WEST AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD YAKUTAT. SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA THIS EVENING THEN WEST OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP A BIT TO 2 TO 4 INCHES. FROM DELTA JUNCTION WEST SNOWFALL WILL TAPER FROM AROUND AN INCH TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP A BIT...BUT WHEN IT CLEARS OUT AGAIN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START FALLING AGAIN. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT A MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OR ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIBERIA COAST. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT COULD BEGIN ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR...BUT 1000-850 MB LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AND MOST OR ALL OF THE WEST COAST. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. RF && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB NOV 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 072119 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1219 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW UP AS WE MOVE PAST THE NEAR TERM. THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND ARE COMING IN LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AS WELL AS DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING PATCHES. THE MODELS JUST DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO FORECAST THE STRATUS AND THE DYNAMICS IT CREATES. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE SINCE ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR MAX COOLING. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 DAM...AND WILL WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 493 DAM AS IT SITS OVER BARROW WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CONNECTING UP WITH A 499 DAM LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE LIES FROM WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE AXIS MOVES TO LIE FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND LIE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 1002 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR BARROW REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS TROUGHING EXPANDS TO THE EAST AND A 999 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR MCKENZIE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE...MODIS AND NPP VIIRS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ESSENTIAL IN PINPOINTING THE STRATUS OVER THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS. PRODUCT AT 07/1534Z CLEARLY SHOWS THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...NORTHWEST COAST...CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...AND MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS THE SHREDS THAT ARE JUST FLOATING AROUND. SPORT PRODUCTS ARE GREAT TOOLS FOR TRACKING THE STRATUS. ARCTIC COAST...WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT SO FAR. EXPECT IT TO EXPAND TO THE EAST...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST. QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE CLOUDY BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS AS THE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS PERSISTS AND STEADY OR RISING TO THE EAST AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO...DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS BUT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING ALONG THE EDGES A BIT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING...BUT SHREDS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OR FLOAT THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME FLURRIES. NOT EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE IT COULD. SOME WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER YUKON AND AROUND NORTON SOUND WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR THE LOWER YUKON COAST. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER ON THE LOWER YUKON..INLAND AREAS WITH STRATUS WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO FIGURE OUT AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BE WARMER IF THEY REMAIN OR BECOME CLOUD COVERED. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE STRATUS REALLY DID A NUMBER ON THE TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WITH THE AREA MAINLY MUCH WARMER SINCE THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST TODAY IS JUST A DIFFICULT SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IF IT CLEARS OUT. THERE IS NO INDICATION ON SATELLITE OR IN THE THE MODELS THAT IT WILL...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 062237 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 137 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUED QUIET OVER THE STATE BUT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SOME DEVIATION AS THEY GO INTO THE MID TERM. THE 12Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM THEN LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY MORNING. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO LIE FROM WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE AXIS MOVES TO LIE FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE EAST A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER BARROW WILL EXTEND SOUTH TO A 501 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC. A 974 MB LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR SITKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE NEAR CAPE SPENCER MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 968 MB LOW NEAR NIKOLSKI REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 964 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 952 MB...THEN SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO BE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE...MODIS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 06/2055Z SHOWING SOME LARGE PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC AS WELL AS THE MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF KALTAG. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE PATCH THAT HAS MOVES WEST OVER THE YUKON FLATS AND A PATCH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. ARCTIC COAST...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHEN THE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS ALREADY FLOATING AROUND BUT EXPECT THAT TO EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 20 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...MAINLY NORTH OF KALTAG AND NOT MOVING MUCH. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES UNLESS IT CLEARS OUT IN AREAS AND THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL PRETTY SHARPLY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA...AND STRATUS HAS MOVED OVER THE YUKON FLATS. SEE NO REASON FOR IT TO DISSIPATE. FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH CLEAR AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP SHARPLY. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 061100 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 300 AM AKDT THU AUG 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...FEW HOURS SLOW IN MOVING THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR EAST ON INITIALIZATION AT 06Z...BUT OVERALL THEY HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD THE LAST FEW RUNS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID RANGE. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE HAS COME INTO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER KOMAKUK BEACH YUKON TO GLENNALLEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND OUT OF THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM BRISTOL BAY TO NORTH OF BARROW THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO EAGLE TO BARTER ISLAND AND NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA...WHILE WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 532 DAM WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES TO 150 NM NORTH OF BARROW AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KOTZEBUE AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 300 NM NORTH OF CAPE HALKETT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER AMBLER AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH BEING SHOVED INTO THE YUKON THIS MORNING. RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE FROM A 1020 MB HIGH 100 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY TO A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIE FROM THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 998 MB 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BE 150 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY OFFSHORE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST...FLOW TO THE WEST OF DEADHORSE AND ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST. AS HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD EAST AND STRENGTHEN A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF...BUT AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TODAY IT WILL PUSH A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SPREADING RAIN AS FAR EAST AS BARROW BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT TONIGHT IT LOOKS QUIET TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST SLOWLY. WINDS TO 30 MPH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TO BIRCH LAKE AND SOUTH. EXPECT THEM TO SETTLE DOWN A LITTLE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY SOUTH OF AMERICAN SUMMIT. REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY OR FRIDAY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO MAY SEE A FEW FIRES START UP IN ZONES 220 AND 223. && .HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO RIVERS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY. && .SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 06/0843Z IDENTIFYING A LOT OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC AND IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PRODUCT. LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...BUT STRATIFIED DECK OF CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 052215 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 115 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THINGS WELL OF LATE AND INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS OVER THE ARCTIC SINCE THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BEYOND 132 HOURS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INTO CANADA BY LATE EVENING. 507 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. A 501 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH THE AXIS LYING FROM WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO BETHEL TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM WHITEHORSE TO ANCHORAGE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN FROM DAWSON TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A 513 DAM LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST NEAR SITKA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER YAKUTAT BY MONDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A 507 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MONDAY AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC AND A 958 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A LOW COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL CENTERS WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A 964 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE UP THE COAST TO NEAR SITKA BY MONDAY MORNING. A 964 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 949 MB...AND TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO BARTER ISLAND. ARCTIC COAST...THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS IF AND POSSIBLY WHEN THE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE COAST...WITH NO OPEN WATER IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE STRATUS WILL HOLD OFF UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING THAT BRINGS IT INTO THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST...SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL ON THE 05/0826Z MODIS SPORT 25HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT...MAY BRING SOME STRATUS TO THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING THAT WILL LAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATOCUMULUS THAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE GOES13 IR THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY BROKEN UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS UP A BIT. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...THOUGH SOME GUST WINDS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL CONTINUE NEAR PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FLOATING AROUND...BUT NOT MUCH ORGANIZED OVER THE AREA. A PRETTY INTERESTING AREA OF BLACK STRATUS SHOWING UP THAT EXTENDS FROM AROUND LAKE ILLIAMNA NORTH OVER MCGRATH AND TANANA HAS DEVELOPED AND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHAT IS CAUSING THIS...BUT IT SHOWS UP PRETTY GOOD ON THE GOES13 IR AND LOOKS LIKE IT REALLY STARTED DEVELOPING ON THE 05/1030Z IMAGE. NOT SURE WHAT THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS WILL BE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SO WILL KEEP IT OVER THE MCGRATH AND VICINITY AND SOUTHERN ZONE 216 FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. THE STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THAT EXTENDS NORTH FROM AROUND LAKE ILLIAMNA CONTINUES TO EXPAND...SO WILL MAINTAIN IT OVER THE AREA TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS...BUT NOT SURE WHAT THE EVOLUTION OF IT WILL BE SO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS IT COULD MOVE OVER PART OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH CLOUDY AREAS MUCH WARMER THAT CLEAR AREAS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 050951 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 151 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUES TO BE GOOD. 00Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AT 06Z. BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS IN OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE TODAY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY. WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST. ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO CONTINUES TO DIG IN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A 553 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR YESTERDAY GETS SQUEEZED OUT WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH BACK OVER THE AREA WITH 561 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 533 DAM WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES OVER BARROW AT 533 DAM WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KOTZEBUE AND ST MATTHEW ISLAND. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER AMBLER AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A 1029 MB CENTER EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO A 1022 MB CENTER IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL TILT MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE HIGH IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1021 MB. A 1004 MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AT 996 MB...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO BE 250 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. A CONVERGENT AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE FROM DEADHORSE TO FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION THURSDAY. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW IN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO AMBLER TO NOME BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS THE HIGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES TO JUST NORTHEAST OF BARROW. AS IT MOVES EAST WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST EAST OF BARROW AS THE HIGH MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. SOME CLEARING TODAY WEST OF BARROW WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES EAST RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF BARROW WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE AS UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ON THE NORTHWEST COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT IT. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOTS OF STRATUS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND KOTZEBUE SOUNDS...AND THE BERING STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SPREADING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF NORTH OF KIVALINA ON THE COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT IT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INTERESTING FORECAST TODAY. MOST OF IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE CONVERGENT ZONE AND THERMAL TROUGH ARE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TO BE EAST OF FAIRBANKS TODAY...BUT THE AREA COULD SET UP OVER FAIRBANKS TO BEGIN WITH. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM COLDFOOT TO FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION ON THURSDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY...THEN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. WINDS REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS MANAGED TO GET BELOW 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN TODAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS KICKED OUT OF THE INTERIOR. SOME WINDS IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT SO NO RED FLAG ISSUES. GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE FIRES TO KICK BACK UP. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR NEW STARTS...MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 05/0750Z CLEARLY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND KOTZEBUE SOUNDS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 041052 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15 DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS. && .HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 031018 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 218 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS BEFORE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON THE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO AROUND 577 DAM. FAST TRACKING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE CORRECT TIMING FOR THEM SO WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF PRIMARILY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND THE GFS FOR AMOUNTS. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC THAT HAS A 526 DAM LOW 200NM NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA AND A 542 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND. THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN A TROUGH STARTS DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY TO THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WITH A 555 DAM LOW OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 552 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS THE 579 DAM HIGH OVER ST MICHAEL MOVES EAST OVER ANVIK THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO A 577 DAM HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND AT 574 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 1006 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER DELTA JUNCTION THIS MORNING. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A FRONT WILL LIE WEST TO EAST OVER THE ARCTIC WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY THEN EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY WITH IT LETTING UP A BIT TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEATHER FRONT LIES WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC INCLUDING THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH A BIT THE WINDS OVER THE COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...AND SOME DRIZZLE AT TIMES...TO THE BERING STRAIT AND AREAS SOUTH. INLAND AREAS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL BE CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS GENERALLY WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH QUITE A FEW AREAS REACHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE AND IN THE INTERIOR...BUT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER...SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE FIRES TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID WEEK THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS IN THE INTERIOR. && .HYDROLOGY...SOME GOOD RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY PROBLEMS IN ANY OF THE DRAINAGES. && .SATELLITE...NOT ABLE TO SEE MUCH OVER THE ARCTIC ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z AS HIGH CLOUDS MASK THE AREA...BUT THE GOES MVFR/IFR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME AND 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z SHOWING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER NORTON SOUTH AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE INTERIOR EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE ALASKA RANGE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB AUG 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 031406 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 506 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015 .ANALYSIS... THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE A WEAK NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR EXTENDING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL AFFECT ANCHORAGE BY TONIGHT AS THE WEAK RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY IS SHOWING AREAS OF FOG ACCOMPANIED BY LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE UPPER COOK INLET ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM...THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA HAS A RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. FARTHER UPSTREAM IS A BROAD CLOSED LOW NEAR ADAK WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD NEAR 40N. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AT 300 MB THERE IS A STRONG 185 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAM DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IS AN OCCLUDED 965 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF SHEMYA WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING SEA BEFORE EXTENDING THROUGH DUTCH HARBOR. THIS IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE CHAIN AND THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHOWERY REGIME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. .MODEL DISCUSSION... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF SHEMYA IN THE EARLY PERIOD...BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS TRANSITION THIS LOW INTO A COMPLEX LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW BECOMES A BROAD COMPLEX LOW BY END OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... ALL GUIDANCE IS QUICKLY TRENDING TOWARD A MINOR SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SPREADING MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS IT HITS THE OPPOSING FLOW OVER THE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER WEAK INSTABILITY (AS SEEN IN THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING) TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO BRIEFLY SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AREA. THUS THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME AREAS WHICH SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND DRIFT INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW MOST PLACES...IT IS WARM ENOUGH IN THE CORDOVA AREA TO PRODUCE ALL RAIN. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER WAVE WILL FOLLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KING SALMON TODAY. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LOW STRATUS HAS FILTERED INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA WITHIN THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AS THE WEAK OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THESE PLACES...BEST CHANCES OVER SAINT GEORGE ISLAND. ARCTIC AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS...WEAK FLOW AND NO MAJOR FRONTS...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE JET STAYS WELL SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)... THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE GREATLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DOMINANT LOW CENTER WITHIN THE BROADER COMPLEX LOW...HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BY UPWARDS OF 400 MILES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN ANY SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS. THERE IS ALSO GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO POORLY HANDLED BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO YIELD BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF 50N AND KEEPS THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEREFORE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST...WITH INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL STAYING MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. OUT WEST...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COMPLEX LOW...WITH A MORE SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE REST OF THE BERING BENEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE MARINE...GALE WARNING 178 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181 && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL LONG TERM...CB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 130232 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 932 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE...STILL EXPECT UPSTREAM SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MN TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS SE MN/ERN IA/WRN WI. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF OVER WRN MN AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD CARRY CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THINKING HRRR AND NAMNEST HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTION AS NAM HAD GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INTIATION LOCATION WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE AFTN. WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM TOO FAR NORTH WITH ON-GOING CONVECTION AND LIKELY TO BE TOO SLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PERIOD FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN LINE DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...INCREASING LOW LEVEL AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO CAUSE AREAS OF STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN WRN CWA. CIG HEIGHTS FLIRTING WITH 3K FEET SO WL LIKELY HAVE TO HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION AFFECTING TAF SITES...ESTIMATED MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS ESTIMATE OF LAKE SURFACE TEMP MEASURED TEMPS IN THE 63 TO 66 RANGE OFFSHORE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECTED PATCHY FOG TO TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT LIKELY TO REDUCE THE FOG FOR A TIME BUT MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ND/ WESTERN MN WILL EXPAND INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EVENTUALLY CROSS SOUTHERN WI...PROBABLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM. THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR MODEL VARIABILITY MEANING THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL TRACK. SPC IS FAVORING THE TRACK WHERE THE STORMS DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND SOUTHWEST WI... CLOSEST TO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS IS A MORE COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH STORMS. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS COULD TRACK DUE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CROSS CENTRAL WI. BOTH SCENARIOS IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SO INCREASED THE POPS AND KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND. ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE OVER 4000 J/KG WITH MODERATE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MANY OF THE MODELS DELAY THE SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHERN WI UNTIL 09Z OR LATER. THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE FOR THE FORECAST. THERE IS A HAIL THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MONDAY AFTERNOON... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. WE ARE KEEPING OUR EYES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING HIGH CAPE WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP... STORMS SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS DEVELOP THE STORMS IN CENTRAL WI BUT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST WI. SPC UPGRADED THE SOUTH HALF OF THE MKX AREA TO AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THIS EVENT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST EARLY DURING THE EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE GFS WILL STILL BE AROUND 2200 JOULES/KG WITH ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS. THE NAM DIMINISHES THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOONER...BEING MAINLY SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVELS DRY BY MID EVENING AS LOW AND MID LEVELS WINDS BECOME WEST. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A WEAKENING 85 KNOT 250 MB JET ACROSS ILLINOIS THAT SAGS A BIT SOUTH. THE GFS SHARPENS THE 700 MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFTER IT EXITS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB RH DRIES TUESDAY BUT 850 MB LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 16 CELSIUS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EAST SECTIONS AND SPREAD INLAND DUE TO THE COOLER AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON CAPES RANGE FROM 1200 NORTHEAST TO 2000 JOULES/KG. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...AND THERE IS ONLY A MINIMAL CAP. THE GFS NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A STRONG TRIGGER IS LACKING...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 700 MB FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT AS THE 850 MB RIDGE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TOWARD EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AND EVEN SOME MID 40S NORTH AREAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON...OVER INLAND AREAS. LONG TERM... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ONE OR TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RECEDES TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH A MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE LINGERING NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS KEEPING CLOUD BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. I AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN SOUTHERN WI AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE AFTER ABOUT 08 OR 09Z MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO TRACK OUT OF MN AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND EVENT AND WE COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE LINE. ANY OF THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY OUR ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER DURING THE DAY MONDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE. MARINE... AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS... APPARENT ON WEBCAMS AND SOMEWHAT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. VISIBILITY WILL BE 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 122130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 130 PM AKDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... ALOFT AT 500 MB...THE 547 DAM LOW LOCATED OVER 75N AND 147W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND DEVELOP A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOPING INTO A 548 DAM LOW BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF TRYING TO FORM AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE AS THE GFS DOES DEVELOP A LOW BUT ROUGHLY 12 HOURS LATER. IN EITHER CASE THIS WILL BRING SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MARINE AND OFF SHORES MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. FOR THE INTERIOR...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM A COUPLE EASTERLY WAVES WHICH IS BASICALLY ROTATING ENERGY AROUND A DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT DEVELOPS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH ONE LOW SOUTH OF PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WE ALREADY HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. THE STRONGEST EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR FIRE SITUATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR EXTENDING FROM EAGLE TO GALENA WITH THE SURFACE LOW 0F 998 MB LOCATED OVER THE TANANA BASIN THIS EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES 1002MB OVER FORTY MILE COUNTY BY MID MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY MORNING EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TOWARD HUSLIA AND THEN DEVELOP INTO A 999 MB LOW AROUND BETTLES. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHES AS A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRATUS AND DENSE FOG REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR AREAS FROM BARROW EASTWARD ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. BY MONDAY THE WINDS WILL START TO SEE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM EASTERLY TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE BROAD AREA LOW NEAR BETTLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE BRINGING INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO THE AREA LATER IN WEEK. WESTERN COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MISSING THE SATELLITE VIIRS IMAGERY...BUT STILL ABLE TO UTILIZE THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT FROM MODIS IN THE LATE MORNING WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MOVED ALONG THE KOTZEBUE AREA. HOWEVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH GREATEST CHANCES EXTENDING FROM ANVIK TO RUBY. DENSE SMOKE LINGERED ACROSS SMILIER AREA AROUND RUBY THROUGH NOON TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO INCREASE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 2 MILES IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MIXING THROUGH THE DAY AND ADDED SHOWERS WILL HELP...RUBY STILL REMAINS AT HALF MILE AS OF 1 PM. THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PEDRO DOME RADAR WITH LIGHTING STRIKES WITH THE STORM JUST SOUTHEAST OF STEVENS VILLAGE AND SOME WITH THE STORMS LOCATED BETWEEN MCGRATH AND GALENA. EXPECTED COVERAGE TO EXPAND FROM ALASKA RANGE TO FAIRBANKS TO FORTY MILE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOP JUST NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS ON THE RADAR. THE STORM LOCATED NEAR THE AGGIE WILDFIRE HAD SOME RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORM CELL. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE INCREASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TO NORTHEAST OF CIRCLE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH WITH HALF AN INCH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE BUT OTHER MODELS ARE LESS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...EXPECT GENERAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITHIN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO CIRCLE. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN. THE THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES EXTENDING ACROSS AN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO CIRCLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POCKET AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... DO NOT EXPECT ANY RISE IN THE RIVERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MAY SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN THE CREEKS ESPECIALLY WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS GENERALLY EXPECTING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS WERE HINTING THAT THIS WOULD FALL IN THE UPPER PORTIONS KUSKOKWIM RIVER BASINS AS WELL AS THE CHATANIKA...CHENA..AND SALCHA RIVER BASINS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ227. && $$ MAK JUL 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 071055 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 255 AM AKDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZATION WELL VS 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE CHANGED A BIT ON THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND NORTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN ALL THE MODELS IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH MORE OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. WILL USE THE NAM AS THE BASE FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH A NUDGE TO THE SREF TO GET PROBABILITIES UP A BIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE LIES FROM HIGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER SITKA TO BURWASH LANDING YUKON TO FORT YUKON TO BARROW AND NORTH THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BUILD A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST AND LIE FROM YAKUTAT TO WAINWRIGHT BY LATE EVENING...THEN FROM CORDOVA TO WAINWRIGHT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE COL WILL COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. A 530 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A 532 DAM LOW JUST SOUTH OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA SWINGS A SHORTWAVE SOUTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE. AT 850 HPA...COOLING HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE STATE AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AND WET COAST WILL FALL AROUND 5 CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE ON THE NORTH SLOPE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL UP TO 10 CELSIUS. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES NORTHWAY TO FAIRBANKS TO HUSLIA TO TELLER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SHOVED NORTH TODAY BY THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT LIES FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO UNALAKLEET TO MCGRATH TO ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND TO ALLAKAKET TO EAGLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. FROM MANLEY HOT SPRINGS WEST STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH NEAR AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MANLEY WEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AREAS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE EAST OF THE PARK AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DELTA JUNCTION TO CHICKEN WILL BE MOSTLY SHADOWED OUT. SOME GAP FLOW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING DOWN. SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/821Z HAS SOME STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...WHICH MAY BE SMOKE...AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE GOES MVFR/IFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM THE STRATUS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...BUT NOT INDICATING THE STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. MODIS TRUE COLOR FROM MONDAY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SMOKE COVERING MOST OF NORTHWEST ALASKA...THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARCTIC...MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND AREAS NORTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION IN THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COOLING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE STRATUS AND FOG TO MOST COASTAL AREAS. WINDS EAST OF WAINWRIGHT ON THE COAST INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE EAST. WINDS FROM POINT LAY SOUTH EAST THIS MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THEM. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALONG THE COAST A RECURRING THEME SETTING UP AS LOW OVER THE BERING SEA REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY AND WAVE SPIN AROUND THE LOW AND OVER THE COAST. BANDS OF RAIN WILL PROVIDE SOME WETTING RAINS OVER MOST OF THE COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAINS IN ZONES 208 AND 217 BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOODING ISSUES. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF TANANA...RAIN FROM TANANA WEST...WITH SOME SHADOWING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION. SOME GAP WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. SMOKE MOVING AROUND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...NO CHANGE FROM WHAT IT WAS LOOKING LIKE YESTERDAY...A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE TODAY IN THE INTERIOR AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UP ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WINDS NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL TAPER DOWN TO LESS THAN 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL LET FIRE FOLKS KNOW ABOUT THAT THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS START FALLING TONIGHT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SO NOT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...BIG CHANGE IN MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS NOW PLACING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ALMOST AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT EXPECT A RESPONSE IN MOST RIVER AND STREAMS...BUT SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS COULD BECOME BANKFULL FOR A SHORT TIME. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ221- AKZ222. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUL 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 061546 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING. FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. PC && .MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS. MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE FOG FOR A TIME. MBK && .BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. PC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6 CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES. THEREFORE THE LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA. THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT CLOUDS/PRECIP. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT. MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. BEACHES... BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052- 060. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 061049 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 249 AM AKDT MON JUL 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. RUN TO RUN THEY HAVE SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA MUCH BETTER TODAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION AND THE RAIN SHADOWING IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR BETTER. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR AREAS EAST OF TANANA...WITH A BLEND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE AXIS LYING OVER CORDOVA TO BARROW THIS MORNING WITH 576 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ROTATE TO THE EAST WITH THE AXIS MOVING TO LIE FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS TO DAWSON AND OVER DEADHORSE AND 570 DAM HEIGHTS RETREATING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. TWO 540 DAM LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MERGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING AND A SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO LIE FROM THE LOW 533 DAM LOW SOUTHEAST OVER DUTCH HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW NOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER CAPE ROMANZOF AND EAST OVER THE COOPER RIVER BASIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TO LIE OVER THE BERING STRAIT TO AMBLER BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND A 570 DAM HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC. A 544 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER BANKS ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO THE WEST APPROACHES THE ARCTIC COAST...AND MOVES OVER THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRAGGING TO THE EAST. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES PEAK LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AT AROUND 18 CELSIUS AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AT AROUND 14 CELSIUS...THEN TREND DOWN TO AROUND 8 CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 2 CELSIUS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM GALENA TO EAGLE THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AROUND A 982 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIE FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO BETHEL TO COLD BAY MOVING TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO KALTAG TO SEWARD THIS EVENING...AND FROM POINT HOPE TO FAIRBANKS TO CHISANA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO OLD CROW YUKON AS THE FRONTS MERGE. SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/0738Z HAS SOME STRATUS IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. ALSO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. DO NOT SEE THEM IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL FORECAST AREAS...BUT WILL ADD IT INTO THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ON THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE PRETTY DRASTICALLY BY MID WEEK AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE. HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THE COAST AND HIGHS ON THE ARCTIC PLAIN REACHING THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY AND OVER THE WHOLE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. COASTAL WINDS WILL 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. INLAND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PULLING SMOKE OUT OF THE INTERIOR TO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY WITH WINDS INCREASING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. RED FLAGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY AND THEY LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS WITH HEAVIER SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREE COOLER. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH A GOOD CAP STILL PRESENT AND PRETTY BENIGN CONVECTIVE INDICES. GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP IN THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT IT WILL SKIP OVER THE AREA FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND REFORM NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONES 223...225 AND 226 AS WINDS GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH NEAR PASSES. A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WITH THE FRONT OUT WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE THERMAL TROUGH. && .HYDROLOGY...HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGES AND ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THOSE AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH RESPONSE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ221. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JUL 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 060809 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 309 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SHORT TERM... 303 AM CDT THROUGH TUESDAY... NEAR TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY..THEN ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN OUR NECK OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING HIGHER TONIGHT GIVEN A LIGHT SSE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE EXCEPT LOCALLY WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE OR IN RIVER VALLEYS. ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH SOUTH AND EASTWARD...WITH AN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS SHIELD HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. 925 MB THERMAL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO AT LEAST 925 MB AND LIKELY HIGHER TO 850 WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 25/19C RESPECTIVELY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90. QUESTION HOLDS AS TO ANY LINGERING SMOKE...WHICH PER MODIS IMAGERY IS LARGELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST PLAYS OUT. HAVE LARGELY HELD ONTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND THINK THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE TO SUGGEST THE HIGHER TEMPS WOULD BE HARDER TO REACH...WHICH COULD EVEN SUGGEST SOME COOLER TEMPS IN OUR NORTH/WEST. STILL...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET CLOSE TO OR INTO THE 90S IN MANY AREAS WITH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR JUST YET AS TO HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT ARE COMING INTO BETTER GENERAL AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL TIMING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/SREF STILL SUGGEST FRONT CLEARS THE CHICAGO AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE WRF-NAM AND NAM 4KM SUGGEST IT WILL STILL BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THIS TIME. THERE ARE SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY SLOW TINGS A TOUCH AS THE UPPER JET DOES REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE LOW DOES LOOK TO TRACK ALONG FRONT FROM THE PLAINS AND NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR TIMING...WHICH IS NOT A GREAT DIURNAL TIME TO MOVE THROUGH...AND THERE IS NOTHING IN THE RAP RUNS TO SUPPORT THE WRF-NAM MODEL SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION AND THEREFORE HOLD WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR FRONTAL TIMING. THEREFORE CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND RIDE ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCESS NORTHEASTWARD. SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY CLIP FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND SEVERAL HOPWRF-ARW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SEVERAL MEMBERS DO SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WOULD KEEP A QUIET MORNING PERIOD...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTED AT THE MOMENT WILL FOCUS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING WOULD SUPPORT SOME REGENERATION IN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...MEANING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES STILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WHICH IF THE STORMS FORM INTO A LINE COULD ALSO POSE A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS WELL. CURRENT SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM SPC HAVE CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPPING INTO BETTER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST. THEN TONIGHT...STILL SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HOLD STRONG IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER 70S AND MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE AREA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TIED TO THE COLD FRONT...AND NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE COLD FRONTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE AND ONSHORE...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MEANING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS FOR SOUTH AND EAST AREAS AS THINGS FIRE UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINGS COULD LARGELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THAT TIME. KMD && .LONG TERM... 303 AM CDT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT GETS SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEKS END. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE ATLANTIC...WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE HIGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHIFT INLAND TO THE WEST WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA IN A SOMEWHAT MOIST WSW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES PROPAGATING NE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND INTERSECTING WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THESE CHANCES...WHICH CURRENTLY LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY PM...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST AS THE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STUCK IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD AND THE FRONT GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO RECOVER BACK WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. KMD && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING. RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY STAYING WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVING A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE TERMINALS IS PRECIP TRENDS AND TIMING. AM MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...WHICH COULD FIRST IMPACT RFD BY LATE MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH RFD...BUT SHOULD ALSO OBSERVE A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES. BEST FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE VARIES TO THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIP AS WELL AS TIMING AND DURATION. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP IN THE TAFS WITH RFD HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE TO OBSERVE IT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE REMAINING TERMINALS NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THIS TIME...AS SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING THIS PRECIP IN EARLIER. OTHER CHALLENGES WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION LIKELY BECOMING PROBLEMATIC. RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION TODAY. * LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER AND TIMING/DURATION LATER THIS EVENING. RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...CHC MORNING TSRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...TRENDING TOWARDS VFR CONDS BY AFTN. WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 220 PM CDT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LAKE. ON THESE WINDS WILL COME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR. WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE LAKE INDICATES HAZE THAT MAY BE A LITTLE MORE THICKER ALREADY OVER THE WATER. CONCERNS WITH DENSE FOG WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY WHEN DEW POINTS OF 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES MOVE OVER THE LAKE. THE OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE AND IT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORE. AS FOR THE OPEN WATERS...THE STABILITY WILL KEEP GUSTS FAR BELOW WHAT THEY COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK /WITHIN 700 FT/ ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ARE FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE FROM THE AREA OF THE NORTH BUOY TO THE U.P. SHORE. THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS ON TUESDAY...IF A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING WAVES TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG MAINLY THE INDIANA SHORE. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...NOON MONDAY TO 10 PM MONDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 051522 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT. PC && .MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS TODAY. HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL CONTINUE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL SOUTH. LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES. CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP SOME MORE. STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF 22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH. MARINE... WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY. AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 050926 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 126 AM AKDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THEY ARE CLUSTERED WELL IN THE FIRST 84 HOURS OF THE MODEL RUN. SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEYOND THAT IN THE HANDLING OF A LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND WHETHER OR NOT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THEY HANDLE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST SIMILAR TODAY...BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS NOT GETTING THE SAME TREATMENT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHADOWING OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NONE...SO WILL LEAN MORE ON THE WAY THE NAM IS HANDLING IT FOR NOW. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH A 577 DAM HIGH OVER WAINWRIGHT AND A 590 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BUILD A BIT TO EXTEND WEST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TODAY AS THE 577 DAM CENTER MERGES INTO THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS 2 LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MERGE INTO A 531 DAM LOW AND SPIN A SHORTWAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY MONDAY EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW TO OVER CAPE ROMANZOF TO TALKEETNA TO NORTHWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND FROM THE LOW TO GAMBELL TO OLD CROW BY LATE TUESDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT. ANOTHER SURGE IN WARM AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL PUSH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND NORTON SOUND REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM GALENA TO DAWSON YUKON THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON RIVER AND FLATS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SURGES NORTHWEST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY. WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LAY DOWN BY LATE MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS TO THE RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH 50 MPH...AND THEY WILL TAPER DOWN BY AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY TO GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 04/0655Z SHOWING THE CLEARLY DEFINED CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA BUTTING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THAT PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO STRATUS OR FOG DETECTED NEAR ANY OF THE COASTAL AREAS. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...VERY NICE DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE ARCTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE NO STRATUS TO CAUSE ANY HAVOC IN THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST DRIFTS OFF INTO CANADA AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST...OFFSHORE IN MOST AREAS...FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY. SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A DECAYING FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY IN THE 60S ON THE COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S TO MID 80S. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON...KOBUK...AND NOATAK VALLEYS TODAY. WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND MOST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME EMBEDDED AS THERE ARE SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP IN THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM AREAS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THEN TURN TO SOUTHWEST IN THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT TO 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY TODAY AND MONDAY. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A PRETTY GOOD CAP ALOFT AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE RANGE THIS MORNING WITH GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND THE THERMAL TROUGH...TO AROUND 25 MPH. MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHICH SIDE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH YOU ARE ON...SO AROUND FAIRBANKS EXPECT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND THE NORMAL LIGHT NORTHEAST DIURNAL WINDS TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER THAN 50 MPH RIGHT NOW...WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT IT. TOUGH CALL ON SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA SINCE SOME OF IT WILL BE SHADOWED OUT BY THE ALASKA RANGE...THEN REFORM TO THE NORTH OF TOWN. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE FLOW DIRECTION MORE SOUTH...NOT MUCH FOR SHOWERS...MORE WEST THEN MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS PERSISTENT AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...SO LOOKING FOR MORE OF WHAT WE HAVE NOW...WHICH IS A FEW DAYS OF WARM THEN A DAY OF SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE INDICES LOOK GOOD IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS QUITE A WAS OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE TO MAKE THAT CALL. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRYING WITH THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT FUELS REMAIN A BIT TOO WET FOR SIGNIFICANT BURNING. THAT COULD CHANGE MONDAY...SO WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FUEL CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE INTERIOR AFTER LAST WEEKS RAINS WITH MOST OF THEM LEVELING BACK TO NORMAL FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB JUL 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 041513 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. PC && .MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE THROUGH 18Z AND REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS THRU THE AFTN. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ADDING A MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO MEASURE THE LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WATER DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVE. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY WEAK 700 MB COOLING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK WARMING BY TONIGHT. 700 MB DRYING BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 11 CELSIUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE TO 3 KM VALUES OF 8 CELSIUS/KM AND AROUND 9.7 FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 5.9 CELSIUS/KM...WITH A RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM 700 TO 600 MB. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS /COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND DURING THE DAY EAST. SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY TODAY. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO AROUND 800 JOULES/KG. THE MESO MODELS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS KEYING MORE ON THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ASIDE FROM THE QUICKER GFS...MODELS HAVE SLOWED A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES. CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FRONT TIMING. SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. MODEL 925 MB TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO WENT WITH MID TO EVEN UPPER 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS GOING AT TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN LOW AREAS ENDING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN...SO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STRAY THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. EXPECT ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER TO CONTINUE FROM THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. MARINE... EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY SO FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 031526 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ELONGATED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EASTERN LAKES. WATER VAPOR/RAP VORT ANIMATION SHOWS CIRCULATION ACRS NRN/ERN IL SHIFTING EAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS ON NRN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE DECREASE ACRS SE WI. EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION FROM NRN WI WITH NRN ENERGY/FRONT TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. VERY WEAK TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL NECESSITATE VRY SML POPS FOR SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF CAPE THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH GIVEN WEAK FLOW AROUND UPPER MIDWEST. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF ON THE MORE ROBUST 6Z SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY. PC && .MARINE...MODIS LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE IMAGER MEASURED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND MID-LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 50. LAKE TEMPERATURE REMAINED IN THE COOLER 40S FARTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHIPPEWA BASIN. WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE SFC TEMPS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATEST LAKESHORE WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT HAZE WHICH SHOULD THIN AS THE WINDS START TO STIR A BIT. HENCE EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OBSCURED. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN IL THAT IS BRINGING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO SRN WI WILL MOVE EAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SMOKE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TNT WITH ITS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TNT AND REACH CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SAT. PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH LATE TNT AND THERE MAY BE SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA VIA CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NRN WI. FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F AT THE LAKEFRONT. FOR TNT TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THANKS TO THE WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS BUT ALSO DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTH WITH A LGT WLY FLOW EXPECTED. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. MOST OF THE LIFT SATURDAY SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. DEWPOINTS ARE PROBABLY A BIT TOO HIGH ON THE GFS AND NAM...LIKELY RESULTING IN OVERDONE INSTABILITY. MORE CONSERVATIVE MODELS STILL SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE PEAKING AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...SO SOME CONVECTION IS NOT UNREASONABLE. FORTUNATELY...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...SO HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON FIREWORK SHOWS. MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT LESS OF A LIFTING MECHANISM...SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND MOST PLACES...ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES. CAPE VALUES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN WI TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TNT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 031259 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 459 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED EAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WITH HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION AND SPILLOVER INTO THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE MCGRATH AREA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A 70 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW STRATUS SITTING OFFSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AND STARTING TO GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE. WHILE...THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION THROUGH THE GULF HAS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER SMALL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AT THE SURFACE HAS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE CENTRAL GULF HAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP THE AREAS OF FOG OVER THE KENAI AREA AND THE MATSU VALLEY REGION. THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK HAS A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND A SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR REGION THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS EXTENDING INTO THE BERING SEA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION WITH STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG STREAMING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE ECWMF BRINGING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW FARTHER EAST ALONG THE CHAIN THAN THE GFS/NAM MODELS. THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE NAM FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION AND THE GFS FOR THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE TWO NORTH PACIFIC LOWS BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KODIAK ISLAND REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUHTWEST AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INTERIOR BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF AND ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF MARINE AREAS. THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE/WHITTIER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND. THE EASTERN GULF WILL HAVE THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO DIFFERENT AREAS OF OFFSHORE STRATUS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING AREAS FOG IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. BY SATURDAY A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WETTING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION WILL HAVE ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THESE WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THESE WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND BECOME SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE HUMIDITIES FAIRLY LOW BUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEATHER FRONT BY SATURDAY THE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER. THE MARINE COASTAL HUMIDITIES WILL SEE THE LARGEST RECOVERIES. THE INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES JUST NOT AS MUCH DUE TO MOUNTAINS KEEPING MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST. THE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL PROVIDE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE POSITIONING OF THE THERMAL TROUGH...DRAPED ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY...COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM UPPER SHORT WAVES AND MARGINAL STABILITY INDICES SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND MAINLY MOUNTAINS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MORE STABLE OVERALL AS COOLER AIR AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KENAI PEN SATURDAY. MINIMUM EASTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. BRISK GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE COPPER RIVER AND KNIK ARM. GAP FLOWS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AS THE COASTAL RIDGE BUILDS. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... A WET AND WINDY PATTERN WILL BE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY COASTAL FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...AREAS OF SMOKE ARE EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SMOKE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR ACTIVE FIRES. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BRISTOL BAY REGION IN EARNEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR ADAK HAS PUSHED INTO THE BERING SEA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NEXT FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT. RAIN AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)... FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND A RIDGE TRANSITS THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL SUPPRESSING RAIN EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE SUSITNA AND AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN PULLS A FRONT NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL LACK AGREEMENT. THE ALASKA PENINSULA...KODIAK ISLAND AND THE EASTERN KENAI WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO AGREE ON BRINGING A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM ON SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN TIME AS MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED TO UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE BEYOND MONDAY. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL DRY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING BRINGS ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT LATE SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND BERING INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE PATTERN TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATING SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A REGULAR PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 131 132 138. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF LONG TERM...KH  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 021927 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER QUIET FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL MAX OUT IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THIS CHANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME NEXT WEEK LATE ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING PCPN CHCS FOR SAT AS A FRONT THAT WILL BE WASHING OUT MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAS DEVELOPED CUMULUS ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THIS CUMULUS IS MIXING OUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MIXING DOWN...AND WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. WE WILL SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD. A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN THE DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD. THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN WILL COME ACROSS THE NRN THIRD INLAND PORTION OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN THE AREA...BUT WILL BE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING ISOLATED PCPN UP NORTH AS THE WEAKENING FRONT ENCOUNTERS SOME SLIGHT DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THE SHORELINE WILL LIKELY BE STABLE ENOUGH WITH A WIND OFF OF THE LAKE TO KEEP THEM DRY. WE WILL DRY OUT ENTIRELY THEN SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND AS A LONGER WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND REMAIN INTO THE LONG TERM. WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT...TEMPS WILL ONLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND ONLY WARM AIR ADVECTION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 I AM BEGINNING TO BELIEVE THIS COMING WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST WEEK OF THE SUMMER SO FAR (NOT HARD TO DO GIVEN HOW COLD IT HAS BEEN). THERE IS STILL THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THAT FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS I WAS THINKING EARLIER SINCE THE REALLY COLD AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND A SECOND UPPER AIR SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL NOT GET TO MICHIGAN UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WE STILL HAVE OUR REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA NEAR THE BERING SEA AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH HAS MOVED INLAND TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. HERE IS THE ISSUE THROUGH...THERE IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT DIVES SOUTH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THAT DIGS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH... OVER MOST OF CANADA (CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY) SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA. THAT IN TURN INCREASED THE UPPER AIR HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN WEAKENS THE FRONT...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THE REAL COLD AIR BEING TRAPPED NORTH OF THE POLAR JET...WHICH NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORTH OF 50N. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK OR EARLY IN FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT UNTIL THEN... WE WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN TURN WE GET TO HAVE MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. THE BOTTOM LINE TO THIS IS THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS LOWER TO ME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY WEATHER (EXCEPT FOR AROUND 18 HOURS LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY). I INCREASED THE FORECAST HIGHS TO THE MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I AM THINKING WE MAY SEE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT I WENT CONVECTIVE YET THERE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A LARGELY EASTERLY WIND. TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. I DO NOT THINK FOG SHOULD BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THERE IS TOO MUCH MIXING DUE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND WAVES REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND A DIURNAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO BELOW 15 KNOTS...AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT INCREASE IN WIND LOOKS TO OCCUR ON MON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING AT THAT TIME. ON ANOTHER NOTE...SOME UPWELLING HAS OCCURRED AT THE SHORELINE WITH THE NNE WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY. SOME WATER TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE SHORE PER LATEST WATER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SITES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK AND NEW RICHMOND IS FALLING BELOW BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR HOLT ARE THE ONLY RIVERS THAT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND LEVELS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE FALLING. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE DAY... WEATHER WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...WDM AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...NJJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 091439 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 939 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 .UPDATE... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS SMOKE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTING EASTWARD LATE THIS MORNING...SO STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR TEMPS TO WARM UP QUITE A BIT. LATEST MODELS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS GETTING AS HIGH AS 24 TO 27 C IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND JUST A DEGREE OR SO COOLER EAST. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH FORECAST HIGHS. WOULD CONSIDER TEMPS A BIT WARMER IF NOT FOR THE SMOKE AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A LITTLE CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A LITTLE LIFT MAINLY BELOW 700 MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...BUT NOT SOLD ON THIS QUITE YET. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK WAVE...BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS. WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SO WL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. THIS PATCHY LIGHT FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. PAIR OF UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THRU WI TODAY. FIRST IS IN THE VICINITY OF NW WI/MN BORDER AND WILL PASS ACROSS SRN WI THIS MRNG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH SO WL CONTINUE DRY MRNG FORECAST. SECOND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN NE NODAK PASSES ACROSS NRN WI DURING THE AFTN...WITH WEAK SOUTHWARD EXTENSION AFFECTING SRN WI. SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 4KM WRF FROM SPC SHOWING SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN CWA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH ELEVATED CAPE RAISING TO AROUND 500 J. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO LOWER SFC DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD REDUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR NOW LINGER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE. TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA AFTER 06Z. A LITTLE BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AS THIS FRONT MOVES. LAYER Q- VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO OVER 10 UNITS. MOISTURE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE FACTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WI WED MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 80S IN SOUTHERN WI. LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET... WILL ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS WI ON FRIDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THU EVENING. DRY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LIMITED. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL FOCUS ON SOUTHERN MN /NORTHERN IA ON THU AFTERNOON... AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THU NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS THAT SHOULD ROLL ACROSS WI THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP TO AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS SHOULD EXCEED ONE INCH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND SHEARS IT OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN FRI AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS KEEP IT RIGHT OVER THE BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY ALL BRING IT INTO NORTHERN WI FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A RAINIER PATTERN THAN THE ECWMF AT THIS TIME. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IS INHERENTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY YET DEVELOP AT INLAND TAF SITES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER PATCHY MID-CLOUDS PREVENTING TEMP FROM SINKING TO DEWPOINT LAST FEW HOURS. OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR T AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TNGT. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM MAY POP UP THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY AND MID- LEVEL RH MINIMAL SO WL NOT ADD TO TAFS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS REMARK TO TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS SRN WI. MARINE...MODIS LAKE SURFACE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 17Z MONDAY SHOWED SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY AFTN MAY HAVE PULLED SOME COOLER WATER TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER LATEST ATWATER BUOY WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND 49...WHICH IS ABOUT 2KM OFFSHORE OF ATWATER BEACH IN NRN MILWAUKEE CO. SFC DEWPTS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAKE TEMP IN NEARSHORE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS BUT WL WAIT FOR THE VSBL IMAGERY TO CONFIRM. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO ADD FOG TO NEARSHORE. THERMAL GRADIENT AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LAKESHORE AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST AFTN WINDS. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KSBM DUE TO SHORE ORIENTATION AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KMKE BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER INLAND. BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF CDFNT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TNGT AND EARLY WED. OFFSHORE GUSTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 090853 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 .SHORT TERM... TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS. WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SO WL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. THIS PATCHY LIGHT FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. PAIR OF UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THRU WI TODAY. FIRST IS IN THE VICNITY OF NW WI/MN BORDER AND WILL PASS ACROSS SRN WI THIS MRNG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH SO WL CONTINUE DRY MRNG FORECAST. SECOND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN NE NODAK PASSES ACROSS NRN WI DURING THE AFTN...WITH WEAK SOUTHWARD EXTENSION AFFECTING SRN WI. SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 4KM WRF FROM SPC SHOWING SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN CWA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH ELEVATED CAPE RAISING TO AROUND 500 J. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO LOWER SFC DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD REDUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR NOW LINGER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE. .TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA AFTER 06Z. A LITTLE BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AS THIS FRONT MOVES. LAYER Q- VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO OVER 10 UNITS. MOISTURE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE FACTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WI WED MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 80S IN SOUTHERN WI. .LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET... WILL ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS WI ON FRIDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THU EVENING. DRY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LIMITED. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL FOCUS ON SOUTHERN MN /NORTHERN IA ON THU AFTERNOON... AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THU NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS THAT SHOULD ROLL ACROSS WI THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP TO AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS SHOULD EXCEED ONE INCH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND SHEARS IT OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN FRI AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS KEEP IT RIGHT OVER THE BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY ALL BRING IT INTO NORTHERN WI FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A RAINIER PATTERN THAN THE ECWMF AT THIS TIME. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IS INHERENTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY YET DEVELOP AT INLAND TAF SITES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER PATCHY MID-CLOUDS PREVENTING TEMP FROM SINKING TO DEWPOINT LAST FEW HOURS. OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR T AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TNGT. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM MAY POP UP THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY AND MID- LEVEL RH MINIMAL SO WL NOT ADD TO TAFS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS REMARK TO TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS SRN WI. && .MARINE...MODIS LAKE SURFACE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 17Z MONDAY SHOWED SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY AFTN MAY HAVE PULLED SOME COOLER WATER TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER LATEST ATWATER BUOY WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND 49...WHICH IS ABOUT 2KM OFFSHORE OF ATWATER BEACH IN NRN MILWAUKEE CO. SFC DEWPTS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAKE TEMP IN NEARSHORE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS BUT WL WAIT FOR THE VSBL IMAGERY TO CONFIRM. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO ADD FOG TO NEARSHORE. THERMAL GRADIENT AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LAKESHORE AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST AFTN WINDS. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KSBM DUE TO SHORE ORIENTATION AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KMKE BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER INLAND. BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF CDFNT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TNGT AND EARLY WED. OFFSHORE GUSTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 311459 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 959 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .UPDATE... A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... MAY SEE MVFR CIGS BRUSH FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .MARINE... BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND RESULTANT WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING SHOWED MID-LAKE SFC TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 40F. && .BEACHES... HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECTED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES CREATING DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. DRIVING FORCE BEHIND DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS IS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...UP TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE STRONG JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WAS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A WEAK 500/250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TONIGHT. NOT MUCH REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH EVEN AT 700 MB AS 700 MB RH ID DRY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. 850 MB RH IS ALSO DRY. THERE IS SOME HIGHER RH AT 925 MB THIS MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THAT DRYS MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE...BUT AN INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE MIXING. EVEN SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO LOWER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND STAY RATHER LOW EAST. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WEST AREAS AND 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS INDICATE HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND ON MONDAY...AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH MAIN FEATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEY SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHS WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY THURSDAY...AS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MEAGER WITH DEEP MOISTURE...SO COULD SEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY END UP DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THIS TIME...WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE WINDS. MODELS SHOWING SOME MORE DIFFERENCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THEY DO BRING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. CONTINUED WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO REDUCE CHANCES FOR QPF FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS. GFS ALSO SHOWING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF WEST OF THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND KENOSHA INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR. AN INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE AFTERNOON MIXING. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WEST AREAS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MARINE... WILL HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY AREAS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND TIL 9 PM FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. FEW WIND GUSTS STILL REACHING GALE CRITERIA SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE BUT THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE SHORTLY. THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR INDIANAPOLIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BEACHES... WILL EXTEND THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AREAS...AND 9 PM THIS EVENING SOUTH AREAS. WAVES NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET UNTIL THEN. DANGEROUS...LIFE THREATENING SWIM CONDITIONS WILL THUS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...CREATING A HYPOTHERMIA RISK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ066- 071-072. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052- 060. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 062141 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 141 PM AKDT WED MAY 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. UNLIKE WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COOLED A BIT A H850 FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR BY A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS. BESIDE FOR THAT CHANGE AMONG THE MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE BEING PUSHED EAST AND OVER CANADA THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED 500 MILES SOUTH OF UNALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. FROM THIS UPPER LOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHWARD FROM THIS EASTWARD MOVING LOW...MOVING OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK...IT WILL SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS...ONE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER ROUGHLY 800 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL ROTATE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN...AND APPROACH THE THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A LOW OVER SIBERIA AND GRAZE THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY. SURFACE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO OVER FAIRBANKS...AND EAST TO EAGLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORCING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL BE SPLIT BY A SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW TONIGHT. WESTERN ALASKA...MORNING IMAGES FROM THE MODIS SPORT MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND VICINITY AND BERING STRAIT NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND VICINITY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AROUND KOTZEBUE SOUND. THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST. BOTH THE BETHEL AND NOME RADARS HAVE PICKED UP ON SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE MOISTURE IS FORCED NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER ZONES 216 AND 227 FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY...BUT ITS NOT LIKELY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER. NORTH SLOPE...IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...CLEARING SKIES AND FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRATUS AND FOG WILL RETURN IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ANOTHER COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS ARE ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE AREA. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND A SOUTHERLY CHINOOK DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES. THIS COMBINED WITH ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... A THERMAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THU. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226. SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY IN THOSE SAME AREAS. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUIET BREAK UP CONTINUES. OPEN LEADS AND SHIFTING ICE NEAR NATION RIVER ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OPEN WATER NEAR CIRCLE REPORTED FROM THE RIVER WATCH FLIGHT OVER THE UPPER YUKON LATE THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS ALONG THE TANANA AND YUKON RIVERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226. && $$ DISCUSSION/HYDRO...LTH FIRE WEATHER...JB/LTH MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 051127 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 327 AM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH MAJOR FEATURES WITHIN A COUPLE MB. A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. SO WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH 551 DAM CENTER OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVING OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA AS THE CENTER MERGES WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A 515 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE EAST TO NORTH OF BARROW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 518 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 400 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OVER CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. A VIGOROUS LITTLE 1020 MB LOW NORTH BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TODAY. RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 990 MB LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. A 1008 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO REMAIN AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH ON THE MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS...BUT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 05/0715Z CLEARLY INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO EAST AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE EAST INTO CANADIAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20 MPH...BUT MAY BE UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF DEADHORSE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...REMAINS QUIET TODAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT A BETTER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ZONE 227. WITH THAT EXCEPTION WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST TODAY AS A VIGOROUS LITTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORTWAVE BRINGS GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH IT. STILL PRETTY DRY AT THE SURFACE SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TAPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORMS...IF THEY OCCUR WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. WITH IT BEING DRY AT THE SURFACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TODAY. STRONGER WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE STRENGTHENS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RANGE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS SO VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...PER NORMAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CONSENSUS. RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO CANADA AND A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN FROM FAIRBANKS NORTH. MODELS NOW MAKING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR. MODELS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY ISSUE RED FLAG WARNINGS SOMETIME TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...REPORTED THAT THE ICE MOVED AT EAGLE TODAY BUT STOPPED NEAR THE OLD VILLAGE OF EAGLE. VIIRS APRFC RIVER ICE AREAL EXTENT PRODUCT AT 04/2117Z INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THE YUKON RIVER REMAINS MIXED ICE AND WATER DOWN TO AT LEAST TANANA. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. RIVER WATCH MISSION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON BETWEEN THE FORT YUKON AND EAGLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 042255 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 255 PM AKDT MON MAY 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK...THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...STRATUS/FOG ISSUES ON THE NORTH SLOPE...WARMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...AS WELL AS HIT AND MISS FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST. MODELS...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS...THEREAFTER THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MID/LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS BECOME APPARENT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...NUDGED A BLEND OF THE MODELS AGAINST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALOFT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FILL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TOMORROW...SQUASHING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WEDNESDAY. REGARDING H850 TEMPERATURES...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECWMF ARE FORECASTING +7C TO +9C H850 TEMPERATURES. SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNDEFINED AS IT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. A SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE NEW SIBERIAN ISLANDS EAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND WILL NOSE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THE 986 LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF ATKA SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. WESTERN ALASKA...FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE WEST COAST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS STILL FLOATING OUT IN THE BERING STRAIT AND BERING SEA PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST AND THE MODIS/SPORT 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. NORTH SLOPE...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ON THE NORTH SLOPE. AS WAS PREVIOUSLY STATED IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG FEATURES TO FORCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE NORTH. EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW OR EVEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY LOW...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN LACKLUSTER. AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SETUP WARMING THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTH AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS HELP ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL CROSS SECTIONS FOR BROAD PASS...ISABEL PASS AND MENTASTA PASS...USING THE 12Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PASSES WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO 20 TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. DIVERGENCE IS SEEN ALOFT WHICH ADDS CREDENCE TO THE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES. MANY INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO BE LIFTED WHICH IS INDICATED BY THE THETA E ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY THE CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ON WED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND CONTINUED DRYING WILL BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW WINDS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER MANY AREAS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. && .HYDROLOGY... THE LATEST RIVER REPORT FROM EAGLE THIS MORNING...REPORTS THAT THE ICE STARTED TO MOVE OVERNIGHT AND STOPPED ONE MILE UPSTREAM OF EAGLE. RIVER WATCH MISSION IS STILL ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER YUKON...SO NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES YET. OTHERWISE...BREAK UP REMAINS TO BE QUIET SO FAR THIS SEASON. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ DISCUSSION/HYDROLOGY...LTH FIRE WEATHER...CF MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 031555 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 855 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER...BUT ALSO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:41 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY OVER 2000 FEET AT FORD ORD. LAST NIGHTS MODIS AND EARLY MORNING GOES IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1000 FEET...DEEPER SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA AND SHALLOWER NORTH BAY. IMPLICATION IS FOR EARLIER DISSIPATION NORTH BAY AND INLAND...BUT STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE STRATUS MUCH OF THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S CLIMBING TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST TO 70S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH EXTENSIVE PUSH OF STRATUS INLAND NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. LATEST NAM STRENGTHENS ONSHORE GRADIENT TO 3.7 MB SFO TO SAC MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL...THEN MARINE LAYER MIXING INCREASES TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFING DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE COOLING TREND THAT BEGAN ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF TODAY'S COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND WRF MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN GREATER INLAND SURGE OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TONIGHT...AS WELL AS CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. AFTER THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS BRING ABOUT SLIGHT WARMING ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAC NW BY MIDWEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE REASONABLY WELL IN DROPPING THAT LOW DUE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EJECTING THAT LOW EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO FORECAST SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY PROJECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COOLING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. BUT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PROJECTED TO APPROACH CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS. KSJC AND KLVK ARE ON THE EDGE AND LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE CLEARING WILL BE MID MORNING FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. CONF IS MEDIUM-HIGH. VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS WITH CLEARING 17-18Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS POSSIBLE. STRONGER WEST PUSH OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON. && .BEACHES...AS OF 4:36 AM PDT SUNDAY...NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SERIES OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. PT CONCEPTION BUOY IS ALREADY SHOWING 3.5 FT AT 25 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL...4 TO 6 FEET...THE POWERFUL NATURE OF LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL RESULT IN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERLY FACING BEACHES SUCH AS STINSON BEACH IN MARIN COUNTY AND THE BEACHES ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY COAST OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...THESE LONG PERIOD WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN LARGE SHORE BREAK AT TWIN LAKES STATE BEACH AND THE SANTA CRUZ BOARDWALK BEACH. LARGE SHORE BREAK CAN RESULT IN NECK AND BACK INJURIES. IF YOU PLAN ON ENTERING THE WATER PLEASE DO SO NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE ON THE OCEAN WHEN VISITING THE BEACH. && .MARINE...AS OF 04:31 AM PDT SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB AVIATION/MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 030932 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 132 AM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 60 OURS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 06Z. WILL JUST USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT DATABASE. ALOFT...552 DAM HIGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WEAKEN TO 552 DAM...THEN BE ABSORBED BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A 542 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SPIT WITH A 553 CENTER MOVING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDES WEST. A 531 DAM LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA. A 520 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE 400 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRIFT NORTH. A 1002 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA DRIVEN BY WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY. A 983 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CHASING STRATUS WILL BE THE THEME...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE TO CHASE THE CHANGING HEIGHT...BECAUSE IT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNINGS EAST OF BARROW WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST TO THE EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY. MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY SHORTWAVE OVER BROOKS RANGE MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OVER THE LOWER YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM DELTAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA INTO THE BERING STRAIT ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...DEVELOPMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AS WE GET INTO THE WEEK WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR WEATHER IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER ONE LAST DRY DAY AND THIS WILL HELP INJECT MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS IN THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGING FROM CANADA WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST AND LINGER OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AREA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND NORTHWEST ARCTIC. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST IN SOME FORM. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS A LITTLE TODAY AND WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE AS WELL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED. FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TONIGHT THEN GOOD RECOVERY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY...SLOW BREAKUP CONTINUES...BUT THAT CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY. OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO WATCH THE YUKON RIVER AND WILL BE FLYING RIVER WATCH MISSIONS OVER THE UPPER YUKON AROUND EAGLE AGAIN TODAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021049 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 249 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .DISCUSSION... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH 2/00Z MODEL SUITE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ECWMF AND GFS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THE ECWMF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS WITH THE 2/00Z MODEL RUN. ALOFT...WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS ALASKA. WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR ICY CAPE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALASKA COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...A THERMAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...TO NEAR CHICKEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY. NORTH SLOPE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST...STRATUS...FOG...AND SOME FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERN ALASKA...MODIS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...KOTZEBUE SOUND AND IN THE BERING STRAIT. DENSE FOG HAS MANIFESTED IN KOTZEBUE SOUND...ALONG THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST. EXPECTING THIS FOG TO THIN THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY MORNING. OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH GOING ON OVER THE AREA. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL AND WARM SPRING DAYS ARE FORECAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WHERE MIN RH WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 22 PERCENT. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ LTH MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 261536 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1036 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE REGION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY LOOK TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER NORTH WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE. GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH ONSHORE WINDS BRINGING COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY. WOOD && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN SITES...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER NORTH WINDS AT MADISON. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WOOD && .MARINE... MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE MI SFC TEMP AROUND 41 DEGREES. WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION PERSISTING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS FROM REACHING LAKE SURFACE. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS MAY PUNCH THROUGH THIS INVERSION. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVY AT THIS POINT...DUE TO INFREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED. WL ADD EXERCISE CAUTION REMARK TO NSH FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. MBK && .FIRE WEATHER... VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 11 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EACH DAY...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. WOOD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA EXTENDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH A LITTLE AND BUILDS BACK INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OR 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN 700 MB RH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST THAT REACHES THE LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES. 850 MB RH ALSO INCREASES...BUT MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT IS NOT SATURATED...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE 850 MB WINDS MAINLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE 700 MB WIND INCREASE OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE 850 MB WIND INCREASE IS MAINLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH SURFACE HEATING WIND GUSTS...WHILE NOT STRONG...WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS. WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT TYPICAL SPRINGTIME COOLING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND. LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/ EVENING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPRINKLES. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDER IS DEBATABLE. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER. LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE ON SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERNS LATER NEXT WEEKEND... BUT BOTH RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE MORE STABLE EFFECTS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME CLOUDS IN THE 5 TO 8 THSD FT RANGE MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO MAINLY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING BUT WITHOUT THE GUSTS LIKE SATURDAY. MARINE... WINDS ARE EASING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING. A SURGE IN STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD PUSH WINDS AND WAVES BACK TOWARDS SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PCT WELL INLAND AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAYBE DOWN TOWARDS 20 PCT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE 850 MB WINDS MAINLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE 700 MB WIND INCREASE OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE 850 MB WIND INCREASE IS MAINLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH SURFACE HEATING WIND GUSTS...WHILE NOT STRONG...WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 252022 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 .TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 700 MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SUNSHINE IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE DRIER FLOW OF AIR INTO THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER 40S NEAR THE LAKE. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. WEAK PUSH OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN CLOUDS TO ERN CWA SUN NGT AS LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND ERN CONUS UPPER LOW. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO SHRINK AND SPIN OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHTER WINDS AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WL RESULT IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAYTIME NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE SEA SURFACE TEMP IN THE LOW 40S. LAKESHORE AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY BUT GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BEGINNING THE DAY NORTHWEST BEFORE VEERING ONSHORE. SUNSHINE AND WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW INLAND LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 60S BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS NEARING 70 IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY. KEEPING AN EYE ON APPROACHING WEAK TROF IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS TROF WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST WI ON TUESDAY AND SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WL LIKELY SPREAD INTO SRN WI LATER IN THE DAY FROM THIS FEATURE. QUESTIONABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING SO WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN CARRYING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS WI TUE AND WED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WI DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND GEM KEEPS UPPER CIRCULATION SLIDING SOUTH INTO IA...ONLY ECMWF SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAKE MI AREA TUE NGT INTO WED. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS ECMWF ALSO SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER ALREADY MOVING ACROSS SRN CAN NORTH OF THE PLAINS ON WED. ALSO...GEM...GFS AND DGEX SHOWING MORE PROGRESSIVE...WEAKER SITUATION. WL PROBABLY KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR -SHRA IN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR TUE NGT/WED TO ACKNOWLEDGE WEAK TROF PASSAGE. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BOTTLE UP DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WEAK TROF DOES EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO RESULT IN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF OVER ERN CONUS ON THU AND FRI. HOWEVER DESCREPANCY REMAINS AS SLOW GFS SHOWS DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER ERN GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE AND TAKES SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW INTO WRN ATLANTIC BY FRI. THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS HAVE A DIRECT AFFECT ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. MORE AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION KEEPS DEEPER RIDGING AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERING LONGER ACROSS WRN GTLAKES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SHOWS UPSTREAM RIDGING BREAKING DOWN FASTER...WITH MILDER MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTLING INTO WI ON SAT...WHILE GFS REMAINS COOLER. DGEX AND WPC LEANING TOWARD MODEL BLEND. EITHER WAY...WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROF AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY RETURN THUNDER TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY...MAY 4TH. CPC 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS GREATER LIKLIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SPREADING INTO WI FOR THE PERIOD MAY 2-8. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET...WITH VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT THE EASTERN SITES AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING NEAR THE SHORELINE RESULTING IN NORTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT MARINE OBSERVATION SITES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING SUBSIDES. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT...PERHAPS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE NEED FOR AN EARLIER ENDING TIME. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 UNTIL 12Z/26. $$ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 251551 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1051 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 .UPDATE... MESOSCALE MODELS AND UPDATED SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE...REMAINS IN THIS AREA. SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO WILL ADJUST POPS FOR THOSE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL LEAVE IN GENERALLY LOWER END POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO MIDDLE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING DRY TOWARD SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME MORE IN THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WOOD && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... MAY SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AT KENOSHA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER CHANCES AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WOOD && .MARINE... SEVERAL VESSELS PARKED IN MILWAUKEE AND RACINE HARBORS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE ENE THIS MORNING. FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MISSOURI E-SE TOWARD TN VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...BOTH RAP AND 12Z NAM12 SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG LAKE MI WEST COAST THIS AFTN WHICH COULD PARTIALLY BE A RESULT OF COLD LAKE MI TEMPS. RETURN OF MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE MI SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ON FRI. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH SRN ZONES LIKELY TO HAVE MORE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 22KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT N TO NE FETCH WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE. MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK END TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH NEW AFTN FORECAST AS WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS... REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. AS IT DOES THE UPPER JET IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH...WHILE THE MAIN JET MAX MOVES OFF TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AS 500 MB PUSHES MAINLY EAST BEFORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER TODAY. THE 700 MB RH IS SATURATED ALONG THE SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THEN DRIES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE 850 MB RH DRIES THIS MORNING NORTH AREAS...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB LOW WEAKENS AND ELONGATES AS IT MOVES EAST...THEN SAGGING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY TURN NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN. THE NAM...HRRR AND THE ARW HIGH RES MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH THE ARW NMN DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND A BIT MORE NORTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL BE CUTTING BACK ON POP VALUES...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF TODAY. LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THIS SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE HEELS OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT/WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI. THUS... KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE ECWMF IS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL UPPER JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LARGER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS IS QUICKEST TO DRAW VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED WITH THE WARMING SINCE IT IS SHOWING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IF THE GFS PANS OUT... MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS WILL RISE AND CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. MARINE... EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. RESULTING PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BRING WAVES ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 202129 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 129 PM AKDT MON APR 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AT TO AROUND 60 HOURS. START SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BEYOND 90 HOURS. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A 524 DAM LOW DEVELOPS...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 519 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE AROUND THE LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL CENTERS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 974 MB LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY EVENING. A 1003 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 200NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT AT 985 MB...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 998 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO BE OVER BARTER ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 997 MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL PUSH NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 1017 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE EASTERN COAST. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH OVER BARTER ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS FROM BARROW EAST WILL SNAP AROUND TO NORTHWEST FOR A TIME THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH IN TO THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER DEADHORSE AND KUPARUK AREAS WITH A COUPLE INCHES AS THE LOW MOVES JUST EAST OF THERE. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THAT COULD PILE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF EXPECTED. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CORRELATES WELL WITH THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. BAND OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST NOT MOVING MUCH AND NOT EXPECTING IT TO. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW COMPLEX REMAINING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT TIMING THEM WILL BE DIFFICULT. BROAD AREA OF MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. WITH THE LOW SYSTEM QUASI STATIONARY...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES NORTH OVER THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON THE COAST...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WINDS SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS TO 10 MPH. SOME COOLING OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWNS A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MIGHT GET A LITTLE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY HAD AROUND 100 LIGHTING STRIKES YESTERDAY AND THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE DIFFERENCE IS SOME MODIFICATION OF THAT AIRMASS COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THAT ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE. RIDGING OVER CANADA WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE INTERIOR AS PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. && .FIRE WEATHER...WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...THEN RIDGING OVER THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT SOME WINDS NEAR PASSES IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BUT ABOVE 30 PERCENT TUESDAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB APR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 162106 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 106 PM AKDT THU APR 16 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. AT 500 HPA THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 519 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND DISSIPATES IN THE BUILDING RIDGE. 510 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER CHUKOTKA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AS A 508 DAM LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH 544 HEIGHTS OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 120 KT JET DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO 503 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER SAND POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 4 CELSIUS ABOVE. ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 3 TO 6 BELOW CELSIUS. SURFACE...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. A 999 MB LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MIDDLE KOYUKUK RIVER BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 975 MB LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING...FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. NEXT FRONT WILL BE PRETTY DRY IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE CHINOOK FLOW SO MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH UP THE COAST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...QUIET PERIOD WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 16/1416Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF STRATUS THAT STRETCHES FROM BANKS ISLAND CANADA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA. MOVEMENT IS FROM EAST TO WEST. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE BREAKING UP OVER MACKENZIE BAY SO BY TOMORROW MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THAT SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE. WINDS GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET OUT HERE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS IN THE MCGRATH AREA AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS THE FRONT AND LOW OVER COOK INLET MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING SPREADING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SNOW...TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER NORTON SOUND AND ONTO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME CHINOOK WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING MUCH NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. CHINOOK SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND DELTA JUNCTION. WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. && FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CREATE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE BURNABLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB APR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 150853 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 453 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50 PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH. UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW. MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND. BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW- END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...07 MARINE...VOSS HYDROLOGY...JLA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 140929 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 529 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL RESULT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS ON MONDAY AND FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY ALONG WITH ACTUAL OBSERVED TEMPS ON MONDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MAINLY EAST HALF OF CWA. HIGH OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LATE MORNING/AFTN LAKE BREEZES...BUT TEMPS SHOULD SURGE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE COOLING KICKS IN THIS AFTN. WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL WORK TO CONTINUE MELTING LINGERING SNOWPACK/KEEP SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS AROUND BANKFULL /SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/. WARM TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DRYING TREND THAT STARTED ON MONDAY AFTN. RH VALUES THIS AFTN BOTTOM OUT WELL BLO 20 PCT OVER MUCH OF CWA...PERHAPS EVEN AS LOW AS 10 PCT. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER STEADILY DIMINISH THOUGH BLO 15 MPH AS THE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER. SO DESPITE THE DRYING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS UPWARD OF 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK. DESPITE A WEAK GRADIENT OVERHEAD NOW...TEMPS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY...AS LOW AS MID 20S IN ISOLD LOCATIONS OF THE WEST. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT SO LOWERED TEMPS MORE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PWAT DOWN AROUND 0.10 INCH. WARMEST TEMPS TONIGHT OUT WEST CWA AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN PLAINS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE STREAKS ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FM THE NRN PLAINS AND PERSISTS AT LEAST INTO WED NIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 3-5F WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY. GOOD MIXING INTO A DECENT INVERSION BTWN 800-850 MB SHOULD YIELD SSE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MODIS IMAGE INDICATES SNOWPACK IS BASICALLY GONE OVER SRN HALF OF UPPER MI AND IS MELTING FAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH GIVEN RECENT SPELL OF WARM WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MID-LVL RDG AXIS MOVES EAST ON THU MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STREAKING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. MOST MODELS INDICATE ASSOC SFC TROF WILL DRAW NEAR THE WRN FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO SHOW BETTER GULF MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LAKES BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE. ADDITIONALLY...THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND DEEPER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV REMAINS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. ALL THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...WL LIMIT CHCS FOR RAIN THU INTO THU NIGHT SO HAVE ELECTED TO PULL SLIGHT CHC POPS FM FCST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN FM SCNTRL CANADA FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH SHORTWAVE TRACK AND ASSOC DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF. 00Z GFS AND GEM-NH STILL SHOW ENOUGH WEAK DYNAMICS ACROSS AREA TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA ALONG ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WL KEEP CHC POPS IN FCST. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD IN SAT AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKY MTN REGION. TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BUT STILL EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 50S. MODELS SHOW NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PHASED LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS REMNANTS OF SRN PLAINS CLOSED LOW EJECT NORTH AND INTERACT WITH ADVANCING MID-LVL TROF/SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES AS THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER THAN 00Z ECMWF WITH TROF ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. ALSO 00Z GEM-NH NOT SHOWING PHASING/INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES AS ADVERTISED BY ECMWF AND GFS. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN NIGHT INCREASING TO CHC POPS BY MONDAY WHEN MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS/MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID-LVL TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF PHASING WITH SYSTEM AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW...THERE COULD BE PTYPE ISSUES AS COLDER AIR BEING DRWAN IN FM THE NORTH CHANGES RAIN OVER TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. SAW GETS A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE THROUGH BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SWITCH THEIR WIND TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING...HIGH PRES CROSSING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. BEYOND TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY AS EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH...THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 IN LAST 12-18HRS...FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TRAP ROCK RIVER IN HOUGHTON COUNTY...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER IN HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION FOR RIVER LEVELS REACHING ABOVE BANKFULL. THERE IS ALSO A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT EFFECTIVE FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS MAINLY IN BARAGA COUNTY FROM THE PRICKETT DAM DOWNSTREAM TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW FROM OTTER LAKE DAM. AT THIS TIME...THE STURGEON RIVER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. ALONG WITH THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES...THE ESCANABA RIVER WILL ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID- WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLA HYDROLOGY...VOSS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KGGW 202020 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 220 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... CAUGHT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HAVE HAD A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH BUT THEY NOT HAD MUCH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS COMING IN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WE HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR NE CORNER. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ITS THE CALM BEFORE THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STORM. OF INTEREST IS THE MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE ICE ROTTING PRETTY QUICKLY ON FORT PECK LAKE. WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ALONG THE LAKE TOMORROW WE MAY SEE MOST OF THE ICE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ON TOP OF ANY REMAINING ICE. FRANSEN .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON WITH A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION FOR A SHORTWAVE...TRACKING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO A WARMER SOLUTION AND MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BE LOADED WITH WATER SO GETTING PRECIPITATION TYPE RIGHT IS OF THE ESSENCE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 0.75 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING WHICH IS APPROACHING +3SD FROM CLIMO...INDICATIVE OF A VERY MOIST COLUMN. DO BELIEVE THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN SNOW OVER TOWARD PLENTYWOOD BUT WITH A WARM GROUND ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO MIGHT THE BE UPWARD EXTEND. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OFFER A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION AND THUS DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. OF CONCERN IS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE EXISTS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE...HAVING A NARROWER BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER QPF. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE IS FAR MORE ROBUST WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. TO THE NORTH THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY IMPROVES WITH THIS SYSTEM CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE. FOR NOW TOO MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPECIFICS BUT THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...INCLUDING THOSE INVOLVED WITH CALVING...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST. GIVEN THE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDWEEK...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK THEREFORE STANDS AND REMAINS AS DESCRIBED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE MOST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE MILES CITY...GLENDIVE...BAKER AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH SHOWING THIS TO BE AN ACTIVE AND WET SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AS DAILY LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THAWING AND FREEZING LEVELS...THIS COULD BE A COMPLICATED MIXED-PRECIP EVENT. SINCE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY THAWED THIS TIME OF YEAR...ANY SNOWFALL WOULD TAKE A WHILE TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS THE MOST COMPLICATED PERIOD TO BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...SNOW AND RAIN ALL POSSIBLE. USED THE POTENTIAL WEATHER TOOLS TO TRY AND DEPICT THIS WITH SOME DETAIL...BUT GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO USE THIS FAR OUT. WITH A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW RATIOS...SNOW UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME AS POTENTIAL TO PROCEDURES GENERATE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH OF ICE ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...THIS ACTIVE TROUGH ALSO DROPS AN ADDITIONAL LOBE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND KEEPS US IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ALBEIT WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN PLACE FOR A CLEARING RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ND WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO NE MONTANA IS BRINGING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOWER CLOUD DECK IS COMING ACROSS THE BORDER AS WELL AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK VERY WELL. FRANSEN && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 201025 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 225 AM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS AND THEY HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT QUITE WELL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT DATABASE AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM OLD CROW YUKON TO ANAKTUVUK PASS THEN SOUTHWEST TO NOME THEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE NORTH OVER THE NEAR SHORE ARCTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM OVER DILLINGHAM TO GALENA TO BETTLES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPLIT WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING NORTHWEST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. A SECOND RIDGE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM OVER OLD CROW TO CORDOVA THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO LIE FROM KAKTOVIK TO LIVENGOOD TO HOMER BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO ILIAMNA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS. A 536 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY TODAY AND MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TO OVER KAKTOVIK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A 513 DAM STACKED LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY EVENING. A 525 DAM LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS EVENING THEN MERGE WITH THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SO SLIGHT COOLING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES UNDER THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS. THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND AND WEAK HIGHS AND LOWS DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A LITTLE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...BERING STRAIT...AND CHUKCHI SEA. A 1010 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING OVER MOST AREAS AT 10 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 30 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC STRENGTHENS TODAY...THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH. A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 20/0535Z IS SHOWING PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST THIS MORNING AND GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 2000 FT. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING FRONT REMAINS OVER COASTAL AREA WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS. SOME CLEARING INLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND...BUT ONLY EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT WEAK COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED WARM AND SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY AS THEY ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE MORE THAN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...EXTENDED MODELS ARE QUITE A MESS SO WILL LEAN ON THE WPC GUIDANCE AND USE A BLEND OF MODELS. THE ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB MAR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 191006 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 206 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS OR SO. CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AND THE 00Z RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT DATABASE AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING WITH A 544 DAM HIGH OVER YUKON TERRITORY...THE RIDGING WILL SLIDE NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC COAST. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO LIE FROM OVER BUCKLAND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN UP OVER THE ARCTIC BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE TO LIE OVER KAKTOVIK TO EIELSON TO ANCHORAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA TO ANVIK BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE. A 535 AM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TO OVER KAKTOVIK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A 510 DAM STACKED LOW REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE AROUND 2 CELSIUS WARMER THAN THE MODELS AT 00Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START COOLING TODAY AND MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING BY LATE THURSDAY. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A 982 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS CONTINUES. 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA PERSISTS AND IS GETTING SOME HELP FROM A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE HIGH CENTER MOVING TO 77N 157W BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH IN AREAS SOUTH OF WAINWRIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 19/0629Z IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BASICALLY FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY WEST. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEAK DECAYING FRONT HANGING AROUND THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH IT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY SOUTH OF NORTON SOUND. WINDS NORTHEAST TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...BUT OVER THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA WINDS OF 20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALSO...CONTINUED WARM...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE 30S AND 40S SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AND INTO THE 20S TO THE NORTH. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TANANA VALLEY...WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK ON THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE INDICATING A DRY PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 180941 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 141 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO. RUN TO RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AS WELL AND THE 00Z RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE TODAY AND A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND. A 507 DAM STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A 521 DAM LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AT 00Z BEING ONLY AROUND 1 DEGREE TOO COLD. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND ZERO TODAY IN THE INTERIOR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE ARCTIC OR ON THE WEST COAST. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A 976 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN. LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT IT WILL CONTINUE. 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY WITH SOME REENFORCEMENT FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND CHUKCHI SEA. 1014 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC TODAY. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND THE THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 17/0547Z IS SHOWING A BIG PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS SINCE MOST OBSERVATIONS SHOW NOT FOG IN THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH HANGS AROUND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONTAL BAND WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FROM THE NORTON SOUND REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD A PERIOD OF SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMULATION WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 1 INCH. A FEW FLURRIES NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA. WINDS IN THOSE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 45 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WARMER AGAIN TODAY AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WITH THE WEAK CHINOOK FLOW. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS STILL INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE STATE BY MIDWEEK AND THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS GETTING CLOSER. WILL AGAIN OPT ON USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO AVERAGE THAT TIMING OUT AND SOFTEN THE FEATURES A LITTLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 171011 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 211 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE 00Z RUNS AGAIN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY. A SHORTWAVE WORKING NORTH ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA THIS MORNING LIES FROM NORTON SOUND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO EAGLE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING...OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND. A 507 DAM STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AND WERE ABOUT 10 CELSIUS TOO COLD IN THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS TOO COOL ON THE WEST COAST. MODELS DO WARM PRETTY RAPIDLY SO THEY SHOULD CATCH UP BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN REALITY TODAY. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A 976 MB LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A 1025 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND PERSIST. A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC TONIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE RANGES AND WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL HANG ON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS AND COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE DECAYING FRONTS MOVE OVER THE AREA AND DISSIPATE. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 17/0820Z NOT SHOWING SOME STRATIFIED CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS INDICATE THEY ARE PRETTY HIGH BASED. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...TODAY WILL BRING A FEW MORE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HEAVIEST AREAS IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOWFALL GENERALLY CONFINED TO WEST AND NORTH OF RUBY TODAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA UP TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS BUT SOME AREAS IN THE NULATO HILLS COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN COOL TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH THE WEAK CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST AREAS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND ON THE TANANA FLATS WHERE GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE...BUT EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS ARE MOVING THE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SOUTHEAST WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL OPT ON USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO AVERAGE THAT TIMING OUT AND SOFTEN THE FEATURES A LITTLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 161146 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 346 AM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE FUZZY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING RUNS SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STATIONARY 508 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS PUSHES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO LIE OVER THE INTERIOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY NOON TUESDAY THEN ROTATE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A 545 DAM HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NORTH TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 7 CELSIUS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA TO AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO 2 TO 4 ABOVE CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ON...BUT THE END IS NEAR AS THE 979 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR CONTINUE TO SPIN FRONTAL BANDS NORTH. LEESIDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WILL PERSIST WITH WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT...THE TROUGH THEN STRENGTHENS UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE GAP FLOW WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT SPINS UP TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY MONDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UP THE WEST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1004 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE AND LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. SOME LOCAL GAP FLOW WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN 25 MPH. ON THE COAST EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT AS THE WINDS COME UP A LITTLE THAT WILL ALL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 16/0737Z NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE AREA AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF LOW CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CLOUDS ROLL OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT THAT EACH BAND WILL BRING UP TO 2 INCHES. ONE OF THE STRONGEST BANDS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND IT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND NORTON SOUND REGION. WITH THE TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SLINGS WARM AIR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS GET INTO THE MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS FROM NORTON SOUND SOUTH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET AND WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AS WEAK CHINOOK FLOW SENDS WARM AIR SURGING NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT THE FIRST FRONT TO REDEVELOP IN THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY...BUT THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WITH EACH OF THE FRONTS...EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 225 AND 226 GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO A LITTLE TANANA VALLEY JET HAS KICKED WINDS IN THE FLATS UP TO GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT WINDS AT NENANA TO KICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION AROUND FAIRBANKS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE FRONTS MOVES OVER THE AREA. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...SOME CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS ON DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH 546 HPA HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND 512 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 092008 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 308 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASING TOMORROW AS THE WAVE DRAWS NEAR. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP FOG AWAY...BUT SOMETHING TO AT LEAST KEEP AN EYE ON. WENT WARMER THAN MOST MODELS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...AS EVEN THE MILD ECMWF IS UNDERCUTTING ACTUAL TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. KEPT HIGHS COOLER IN THE SOUTH WITH THE DEEPER SNOW PACK. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IS ABOUT GONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE FIRST 50 DEGREE READINGS IN SOME TIME TODAY...COULD ALREADY SEE THE FIRST 60 DEGREE READINGS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SRN WI WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM THAT IS OVER SRN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUE NT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR WED. THE COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK...LEAVING A MILD AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE COLD LAKE BREEZE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FOR WED NT AND THU WITH SELY WINDS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DUE ELY FOR FRI AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN ONE QUARTER OF THE AREA VIA ONSHORE WINDS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE 50S. LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR FRI NT AND SAT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN CONTINUED TO BE FORECAST OVER FAR SE WI AS THIS SYSTEM MAP CLIP THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA...NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH A ROLL OVER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN NT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED INTO MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE SOME FOG TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT...BUT SO WILL TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. WILL THUS NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 072123 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 323 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER PER THE FARTHER NORTH ECMWF AND CANADIAN...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE WITH A FARTHER SOUTH AND DRY SOLUTION. COULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER...SO EXPECTING HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. STILL...TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE MILDER ECMWF...AS THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST SUN EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL...A SPLIT JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP WITH THE NRN BRANCH MAINLY OVER SRN CANADA...AND THE SRN BRANCH OVER THE SRN USA AND MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE SRN BRANCH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR MON-TUE WITH PERSISTENT SFC-850 MB WARM ADVECTION. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD. 925 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO 2-3C FOR MON AFT AND 8-9C FOR TUE AFT. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY NOT EXTEND UPWARD TO 925 MB BUT ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MON TO 50S TUE. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A TRAILING CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SRN WI TUE NT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WED. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BUT FAR ERN WI WILL SEE A LAKE BREEZE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT NEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR THU-FRI. FAR SE WI COULD GET CLIPPED BY LGT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ONLY VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE TEMPERATURES FOR THU-SAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRESSURE FIELD AND JUST HOW STRONG ANY ELY COMPONENT WINDS WILL BE. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER FAR ERN WI DURING THIS TIME WITH LOWER TO MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... VERY LITTLE ICE EVIDENT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON MODIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. MILDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO LIMITED ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 042008 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 308 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE. BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT. SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW. THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING. FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY. OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS. WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162. WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 012123 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 423 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN TROF...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME -SHSH/FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY IN VCNTY OF SFC TROF WHICH IS NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING UPPER MI. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS SHIFTS ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE...850MB TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND A ROUGHLY 3KFT DGZ LAYER BTWN ROUGHLY 2K AND 5KFT...WOULD NORMALLY BE CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING SEVERAL HRS OF HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IF THE LAKE WASN'T MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THAT SAID...THE BRISK SW TO W WINDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE OPENED UP SOME NOTABLE GAPS IN THE ICE...SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED MORE PERSISTENT LES AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. FROM TODAYS MODIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT GAPS IN THE ICE ARE NOTED FROM AROUND THE HURON ISLANDS DOWN PAST GRANITE ISLAND AND OVER TO N OF MUNISING...AND ALSO IN THE AREA E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HAD A TENDENCY TO OPEN UP OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WHEN WINDS ARE SW. WILL THUS HIT HIGHEST POPS AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF THESE OPEN WATER AREAS THIS EVENING (JUST N OF IRONWOOD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALSO ALGER COUNTY). STRONG NEGATIVE DYNAMICS TAKE OVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS... WNW/NW FLOW LES SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W TOWARD THE WI BORDER SHOULD FALL DOWN TOWARD ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. ANY LINGERING LES TO THE E OF MARQUETTE WILL END BY MON AFTN UNDER WAA/BACKING WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE (BY MID AFTN 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND -12C). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO START THE DAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH DRY AIR MASS AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMAL TROF. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S...COOLEST OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO DEPARTING THERMAL TROF. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 ...WIDESPREAD SNOW TUESDAY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE... PRIMARY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK IS LIMITED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CHANCES WILL BE HELD DOWN AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. TEMPS REBOUND AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY AND COULD STAY AT SIMILAR LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A TWO-PIECED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD REGION. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW SLIDES FM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE SFC LOW ARRIVES ALONG THE NEB/IOWA BORDER. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH MAXIMIZES OVERNIGHT BTWN H85 AND H5. LIFT IS PRETTY STRONG WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION...SO SHOULD SEE LGT SNOW BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD WI BORDER WITH LOWEST 100MB GRADUALLY SATURATING. HINTS ARE THERE THAT THE INITIAL SNOW COULD BE DRIVEN BY FGEN...BUT WHERE MAX RIBBON OF HEAVIER SNOW SETS UP IS NOT CERTAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS IT MORE OVER WESTERN CWA...BUT THIS IS AT ODDS WITH NAM DOMINATED SREF OUTPUT AND SEEMS TOO FAR NORTH AS IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW ON INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW ON TUESDAY ON EDGE OF GREATER H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAINLY IS MAXIMIZED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN OUT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN. H7 MIXING RATIOS GFS/ECMWF STAY BLO 3G/KG THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. MIXING RATIOS INTO THE SYSTEM AND BLEND OF QPF FM GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SLR/S CENTERED ON 15:1...SUGGEST ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL SCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO GRAPHICS. PHASING BTWN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES NEVEN REALLY TAKES OFF SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN CORE OF UPPER JET ENERGY STAYS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CHANCE POPS LINGER EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE EAST...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. INITIALLY LAKE EFFECT IN WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ON TUESDAY EVENING PROBABLY STAYS ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD AIR /H85 TEMPS WARMER THAN -15C/ AND MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE H8-H7 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BLO -20C OVER LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN INVERSIONS RISING UP TO A MAX OF 8KFT WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE THE HIGH ICE COVERAGE...SCT POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME HELP FM DAYTIME HEATING AS THE HYBRID LAKE EFFECT SEASON IS UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGHER SUN ANGLE. WITH NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE LK SUPERIOR SHORELINES...PROBABLY WILL HAVE BLSN/POOR VSBY IN THE SNOW BELTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. EVEN MINUS BLSN...LES WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VSBY AS THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE BECOMING SMALLER. H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BLO -25C BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WINDS BACKING W-WSW BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH ANY SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE. TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TANK WELL UNDER 10 BLO ZERO. MAY SEE MARGINALLY LOW WIND CHILLS ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FARTHER INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE NEARLY CALM. STILL COLD ON THURSDAY AS CORE OF COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY HEADS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD UPPER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WARMING FIRST OCCURS ALOFT THEN MAKES ITS WAY TO SFC BY FRIDAY AFTN. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SWEEPS ACROSS LEAVING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS LATER ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT SYNC UP...SO NOT EXPECING MUCH IN WAY OF LGT SNOW. BETTER LINKING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS IDEA FM GFS AND ECMWF. COLD AIR NOT AS EMPHATIC FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING H85 TEMPS MAINLY WARMER THAN -12C. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL JUST RUN WITH CONSENSUS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RESULT IS DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LGT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 SFC LOW PRES TROF AND ASSOCIATED -SHSN/MVFR CIGS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. AT KCMX...A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VIS APPEAR LIKELY THRU 19Z TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND TROF SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DESPITE A MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. RECENT SW WINDS MAY HAVE OPENED UP AN AREA OF WATER E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. IF SO...SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSH MAY OCCUR AT KIWD THIS EVENING UNDER LOW-LEVEL WNW FLOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT WITH OCNL -SHSN. BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 012103 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1203 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. JUST GOING TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH A CENTER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HEIGHTS AROUND 546 DAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL FALL A LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE MAY SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ONE. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST AND NORTH AS IT WORKS OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. A 536 DAM LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INJECT SOME ENERGY INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MERGES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN LIE FROM OVER POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET TO CAPE NEWENHAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BARROW TO HUSLIA TO LIME VILLAGE LATE TUESDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO BETTLES TO SEWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EXIT THE STATE INTO CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY AS IT PUSHES INTO AND OVER THE RIDGE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE IS SQUASHED DOWN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE ENERGY...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE TRAIN OF WAVES THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE WEEK GOES ON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...AND WHAT MAY BE THE STRONGEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ANOTHER 6 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS. ON THE WEST COAST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SURFACE...1041 MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MAINLAND WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE AS A 991 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR MONDAY MORNING...AND A 1000 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEMS COMBINE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR MOVES TO THE ARCTIC THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE MONDAY EVENING AT 998 MB...THEN TO KOTZEBUE SOUND AT 999 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OVER THE RIDGE WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING EAST. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM BARROW TO AMBLER TO UNALAKLEET TO BETHEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA TO DILLINGHAM TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MACKENZIE BAY CANADA TO A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR BETTLES TO MCGRATH TO KING SALMON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DRAG ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MOVE FROM THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN TO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONTINUES FOR NOW IN ZONES 204 AND 206...BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF DRASTICALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO CANADA. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL ALSO COVER THE NORTH SLOPE SO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP...WEST OF BARROW...FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE SO EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT SURE ON JUST HOW MUCH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET FOR NOW. WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW WILL BEGIN ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY ON MONDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS MID DAY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER ZONES 214 AND 215 WHEN IT STARTS BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. BY TUESDAY MORNING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND START WORKING INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS. SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE NULATO HILLS...THE CENTRAL SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...GOOD NIGHT TO VIEW THE AURORA AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TONIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN NORMAL LATELY SO SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 01/1357Z/NPP VIIRS AT 01/1438Z 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS CONFIRM THE MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE. AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS PROVIDE EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE ONLY STRATUS CURRENTLY FLOATING AROUND THE AREA IS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH THE EXITING LOW. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 272223 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40 TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3 AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND 224. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219- AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ235. && $$ SDB FEB 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 251308 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 408 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THIS RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY NOON. THE 494 DAM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 546 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TODAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BEING SHUT OFF. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING MOVING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING AND CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING. A 564 DAM HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AND RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE RIVER OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE EVENT. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF WARMER AIR THAT THE MODELS CANNOT DEFINE DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE GRID. SURFACE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING SPREADING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. FRONT MOVES INTO YUKON BY AFTERNOON AS 1034 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 998 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE HIGH ARCTIC TONIGHT THEN MOVES EAST. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. A 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1001 MB THEN MOVE NORTH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 1006 MB...THEN MOVE TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INTO MACKENZIE BAY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW WILL SPIN UP INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE EXITING INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING AS A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY VARYING CONDITIONS AS EACH FRONT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN PERIODS WHEN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS HEAVIER SNOW AND STRONGER WINDS MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONTS. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205...BUT AS NOTED CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. WINDS INCREASING TODAY TO 30 TO 50 MPH AS ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW IN THE ARCTIC...BUT AREAS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO ZONES 207...208...210...211...213 AND 217. THE WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS SO INSTEAD OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL THE AREAS WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 213 AND UPGRADE THE REST TO WARNINGS IF THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ALREADY. QPF IS STILL PRETTY HIGH OVER THOSE AREAS...BUT GFS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE FRISKY THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED SO LOOK FOR WINDS FROM NOME NORTH OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND FROM KIVALINA NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE WINDS GUSTS NEAR 65 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THOUGH SOME WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES FROM FAIRBANKS WEST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FLURRIES ENDING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA WITH NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING SATURDAY...SPREADING SNOW FROM THE WEST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS AT 25/0845Z SHOW LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NO VIIRS FOG PRODUCTS SO FAR THIS MORNING TO COMPARE...BUT THE MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS WITH THE SAME TIME STAMP INDICATE IT IS MOSTLY STRATUS AND NOT FOG. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213- AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 250936 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN. THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1. AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING EVE RUSH. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY TUNED... && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW AS IFR. && .MARINE... HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 250748 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 348 AM AST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS. RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN LEADING TO SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY. && .DISCUSSION...ONE LAST DAY OF 'WET CONDITIONS' BEFORE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRM CONTROL OF THE REGION LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME WILL ADVECT WWD TODAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE FULL CONTROL OF THE REGION LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE TIGHTENING WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20-KT OVER COASTAL AREAS AND OVER WATER INTO SUN MORNING. RIDGE WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH PATTERN BROADENS AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-CNTRL ATLC INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN PROMOTING MOISTURE RECOVERY AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS MON AND TUE. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA XCP SCT OVR NW PR IN AFT...YET VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA THRU THU. FEW OBSCD MTNS THIS AFT. WIND BLO FL120 E-ESE 12-20 KT INCR E 14-28 KT LATE TONITE-THU. && .MARINE...ONE LAST DAY OF GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE WINDS STRENGTHEN THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND STEEP WAVES OF 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SUN AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT AS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR WILL SLOW DOWN. && .FIRE WEATHER...VERY ACTIVE FIRE WX PATTERN EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH THURSDAY AND HOLD THROUGH SUN UNDER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE FUEL MOISTURE AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE MONTH OF FEB IN MOST PLACES. GREATEST RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE BEEN IN ST. CROIX...SOUTHWEST... SOUTHEAST...AND NCNTRL PR BASED ON AHPS AND LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL DEFICITS THIS TIME AROUND ARE SIGNIFICANT LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE WINTER OF 2013 AND 2014. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ST. CROIX WHERE 30-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN DISMAL AND MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY VEGETATION AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING. WILL ALSO COORDINATE WITH PR FIRE CORPS AND FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE ON FUEL CONDITIONS TO SEE WHETHER FIRE WX WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 86 74 88 74 / 20 10 10 10 STT 84 77 84 77 / 10 10 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 240905 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 405 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 20 DEGREE MARK TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SHARP SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL ARRIVE ON WESTERN NEW YORKS DOOR STEP BY THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO PUSH NEAR THE 20 DEGREE MARK BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION / LIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL HELP THE WINDS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL GUSTY POTENTIAL. THUS USING THE MIXED WINDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WIND GUST FORECAST...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE GUSTS BY 10 TO 15 PERCENT. THIS LARGELY GIVES GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN LAKES AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THESE WINDS INCREASE...SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE TOP LAYER OF SNOW REMAINS LOOSELY PACKED. ALSO BY THIS EVENING...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE TUG HILL REGION WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY THERE. SOME DOWNSLOPING INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP TO LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH GENERALLY A COATING TO AN INCH LIKELY THERE. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WINDS CONTINUING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE FRESH LAYER OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE CLIPPER AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A DECENT AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT THE LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN ICE COVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER LAKE RESPONSE. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AROUND 10K FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE TIME OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN PERSISTENT BANDS EAST OF THE LAKE. HAVE INITIALLY GONE WITH AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TUG HILL FOR WEDNESDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE GROWS ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. THE WESTERN END OF THE BAND MAY ALSO BRUSH THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM EASTERN NIAGARA TO NORTHWEST MONROE COUNTIES WITH AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING THE DAY...WITH TEENS IN THE MORNING DROPPING TO SINGLE NUMBERS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE WITH SNOW WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS FETCH SHORTENS...INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY. ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE TYPICAL AREAS FROM NEAR IRONDEQUOIT BAY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA/NY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH. THE COLD CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE WEATHER WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME SUNSHINE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH MAY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION ON SATURDAY...BUT A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY RESULT IN A STRUGGLE TO WARM THE SURFACE DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS SATURDAY. THE PATTERN GROWS MORE COMPLEX AND INTERESTING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SEND TWO SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST. THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CAPTURE SOME PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE DURING ITS TRIP ACROSS THE NATION...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL PROVIDE A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION AND PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES...RESULTING IN A WIDE SWATH OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND ARE NOW COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THIS SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE SAME BASIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP STAYING ALL SNOW AGAIN...AND THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE DOMINANCE OF COLD AIR RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE CONUS. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. KART WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KIAG/KBUF. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THE LONGEST AT KJHW AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN AND AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... THE FOCUS TODAY TURNS TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CANCELED THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR OPEN WATER PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS REMAIN LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING SPRAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. && .CLIMATE... ---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO 1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950. STATION: VALUE (F) MONTH (YEAR) BUFFALO 11.6 FEB (1934) 13.4 FEB (1875) 13.8 JAN (1977) 14.1 JAN (1918) 14.6 FEB (1885) 14.9 FEB (1979) 15.5 FEB (1978) 15.6 JAN (1920) 15.6 JAN (1912) 16.2 JAN (1945) ROCHESTER 12.6 FEB (1934) 13.7 FEB (1979) 14.4 FEB (1875) 14.5 FEB (1885) 14.8 JAN (1918) 14.9 JAN (1994) 15.2 JAN (1945) 15.5 JAN (1977) 15.7 JAN (1981) 16.1 JAN (1920) WATERTOWN 6.4 DEC (1989) 6.5 JAN (1970) 6.9 JAN (1994) 7.9 FEB (1978) 8.0 JAN (1981) 8.1 JAN (2004) 8.4 FEB (1979) 10.0 JAN (2003) 10.1 JAN (1977) 10.3 JAN (1961) CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE PRODUCT. ---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY'S ON RECORD. SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884. STATION: SNOW (IN) YEAR BUFFALO 1 54.2 1958 2 49.5 1960 3 44.3 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21) ROCHESTER 1 64.8 1958 2 58.3 1960 3 46.5 2007 4 42.7 1910 5 41.7 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21) ---IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978. ---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 7 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO... NUMBER YEAR 10 1979 8 1934 7 1963 7 1875 7 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21) THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN 1884-85. ---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 14 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO... NUMBER YEAR 16 1978 15 1993 15 1979 14 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21) && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>008- 010-011-013-014. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ012- 019>021-085. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CHURCH NEAR TERM...CHURCH SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...CHURCH MARINE...CHURCH CLIMATE...THOMAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 222026 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 226 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO ILLINOIS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT... AND THEN INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BRING A CORE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO -22 TO -24C WHICH TRANSLATES TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT. COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL WI... CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH. WINDS COULD DECOUPLE THERE WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST... BUT WIND CHILL TEMPS WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS LOW. OVERALL... EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5 TO 10 MPH... SO MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW RANGE FROM MID EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK UPWARD 700 MB LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY. MODERATE 925/850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 925/850/700 MB SWINGS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRYING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH 925 MB RH REMAINS LONGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRYING FROM THE NORTH LATE. THE SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXCEPT TOWARDS SHEBOYGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE BASE OF THE INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY....WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH MAINLY WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AT 700 MB. 700 MB RH IS LOW. THE 925/850 MB RH DRIES TUESDAY EVENING WITH 925 MB RH INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS... BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTH LOW LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. .LONG TERM... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SAGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS... WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE REGION. WITH LIGHT WINDS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD IF SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS...WINDS CHILLS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS IT WEAKENS AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE CENTER OF THE COLD SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES A LITTLE EAST FRIDAY CONTINUING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS...WINDS CHILLS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE REACHES THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WISCONSIN. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY EJECTING SHORTWAVES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TWO SHORTWAVES PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST...THE FIRST WOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH ANY EJECTING SHORTWAVES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS. THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS WOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD ONLY BEGIN SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL... WITH 40 TO 50 KNOT WSW WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LAYER OF ICE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 220847 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 347 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 NEXT QUICK HITTING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY SURGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH SUB -30C 85H AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW ZERO AND EXPECT MANY AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO TODAY. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WIND CHILLS WILL HOLD IN THE -20 TO -30 F RANGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. YESTERDAYS MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOVING AND COMPRESSING THE ICE PACK TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...ICE COVERAGE OVER THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LAKE IS STILL PRETTY THIN. BASED ON HOW COLD THE AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL BE...EXPECT HEAT FLUXES THROUGH THE ICE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDING FOR NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. LATEST IR IMAGERY IS HINTING AT SOME OF THESE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED OVER ICE BANDS. WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION EVEN WHERE THE BANDS DO OCCUR...OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT...NOTHNG MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES RECENTLY...THE FINE SNOWFLAKES IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINSIH SOME TONIGHT...BUT AS THEY DO TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. EVEN WITH WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY AND ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 PERSISTENT HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN NAMERICA/DEEP TROF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA WL PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT THAT WL BRING ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE UPR LKS THRU MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH...FALLING HGTS OVER THE W WL ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME AIRMASS MODERATION. BUT WITH DRY HI PRES FCST TO BE DOMINATING...LO TEMPS MAY STILL BE QUITE COLD DESPITE THE MORE SEASONABLE H85 AND DAYTIME TEMPS. SUN NGT/MON...SPRAWLING ARCTIC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SW MN AT 00Z MON IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S AND OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z TUE. FOR UPR MI...THIS TRACK WL RESULT IN A STEADILY BACKING NW TO SW WIND. SCATTERED LK EFFECT SN SHOWERS OFF BREAKS IN THE ICE INTO THE NW WIND SN BELTS ON SUN NGT...LIMITED GREATLY BY LARGER SCALE ACYC H925 FLOW AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE FM 3-4K FT TO 2K FT AGL AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...WL TEND TO SHIFT OFF INTO LK SUP ON MON. STEADY H925 WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ON SUN NGT/MON MRNG IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS MODERATING STEADILY DUE TO WAA/SUBSIDENCE FM ABOUT -30C AT 00Z MON TO -20C AT 18Z MON JUSTIFY GOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK MODERATION INTO THE E...AN AREA WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...OPTED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVY HEADLINE FOR THE ERN CWA THRU MON MRNG EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ADVY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS ON SUN AFTN. ACTUAL AIR TEMPS ON SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE COLD AND UNDER -20F OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...WHERE SFC WINDS MIGHT BE A BIT LIGHTER CLOSE TO THE HI CENTER PASSING TO THE SW. UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI SINKING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND NEXT SHRTWV/SFC LO DIGGING SEWD INTO NW ONTARIO ON MON...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO INCRS TO 35-45KTS BY 00Z TUE. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TOWARD -10C OVER THE W TO -15C OVER THE E BY 00Z TUE IN THE INCRSG WAA...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS OVER THE W AND UP TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE E UNDER INCRSG HI/MID CLDS RELATED TO THE WAA. MON NGT/TUE...SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO ON MON EVNG ARE FCST TO SLIDE SEWD TO THE NE OF LK SUP DURING THIS TIME...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FROPA OVER UPR MI ON TUE MRNG. SOME LIGHT SN IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI FM THE NW ON MON NGT AND PERSIST INTO TUE MRNG BEFORE THE COLD FROPA. SINCE THE MSTR INFLOW WL BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE 1.0-1.5 G/KG RANGE...AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...ACCOMPANYING SN ACCUMS SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HIER POPS/QPF WL BE OVER THE NE CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/LONGER DURATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/AREA OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER DEEP AND INCLUDE MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED UVV...STRONG WINDS MIGHT BREAK UP THE DENDRITES TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. BUT THE SMALLER FLAKES WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENTLY BLOWN ABOUT BY THE GUSTY VEERING WINDS THAT WL BE OCCURRING UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FCST AND RESTRICT VSBY. WITH H85 THERMAL RDG OVER UPR MI ON MON NGT AND THE GUSTY WINDS...EXPECT RELATIVELY HI MIN TEMPS AND NO NEED FOR MORE WIND CHILL HEADLINES DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WL MAKE THE AIR FEEL COLDER. WSHFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING THE TUE MRNG COLD FROPA WL DRAG ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTN... DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C AGAIN BY 00Z WED AND ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED LES. TUE NGT/WED...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FCSTS H85 TEMPS TO FALL AS LO AS -28C TO -30C ARND 12Z WED IN COLD NNW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CNDN HI PRES MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LES OFF BREAKS IN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT WL BE WIND CHILLS AT LEAST APRCHG ADVY CRITERIA AS H925 WINDS ARE FCST UP TO 30- 35 KTS DURING THE DESTABILIZING PERIOD OF CAA THAT WL DROP MIN TEMPS BLO ZERO AGAIN. EXTENDED...THE ARCTIC HI OVER SCENTRAL CANADA ON WED IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU... THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SAT UNDER SLOWLY RISING HGTS IN THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF TROFFING OVER WRN NAMERICA. THE RESULT WL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LES MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE INTO THU WHILE THE LLVL FLOW IS STILL NW...BACKING WINDS TOWARD THE W AND THEN SW WL SHIFT ANY SN SHOWERS OUT INTO LK SUP. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ABOUT -15C BY FRI/SAT...SO THERE SHOULD BE WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST TOWARD 20F WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. BUT FCST PWAT AS LO AS 0.05 INCH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY LO OVERNGT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IF THE MODELS SHOWING A FLATTER PRES GRADIENT/ LIGHTER WINDS ARE CORRECT. MORE CLDS MAY ARRIVE NEXT SAT IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING) EVEN WITH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN OVER...THERE WAS STILL ENOUGH HEAT COMING OFF THE LAKE TO LEAD TO SOME SCT LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLIER TODAY. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIMITED BREAKS IN THE LAKE ICE. WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SMALLER FLAKES AND THUS MORE EFFECTIVE VISIBILITY REDUCERS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR KIWD/KCMX TO SEE REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS. BUT...IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE WIND DIRECTION WITH THE ICE COVERAGE. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE...ALSO DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING UPSTREAM MOISTURE...OPTED TO LEAVE VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES AT LOW END MVFR. AT KSAW...A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE AND WINDS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...HAVE JUST BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT TO PRIMARILY KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY SURGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35-40KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30KTS AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST MONDAY FOR MIZ012. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...MZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 220327 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 927 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015 .UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS WEST IN VICINITY OF ARCTIC FRONT. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS SUCCUMB TO STRONG INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREA OF FLURRIES AND ISOLD -SHSN PICKING UP ALONG ARCTIC FRONT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL AFFECT EASTERN AREAS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK IN GOOD ORDER. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO TO 2 BELOW IN THE WEST LATE TNGT RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW. THE RETURN OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE 5 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE WITH PERSISTENT COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY SUN NGT. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES IN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MAIN ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR WITH -SN BUT WL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH CLEARING TREND TNGT INTO EARLY SUN. && .MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH RES MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED ICE COVERING MUCH OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT SOME ICE GROWTH TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. THE 925MB COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND IN CENTRAL WI AS OF 3 PM. THE 925MB FRONT AND STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/ WITH JUST ENOUGH OMEGA/UPWARD MOTION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS... THAT APPEARS OVERDONE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE DELLS AND 10 ABOVE NEAR KENOSHA BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TEMPS WILL STEADY OUT IN THE MORNING AND RISE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. DESPITE STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS... WIND CHILL TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TOWARD THE DELLS. NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY PLANNED FOR THE MKX FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN BY MONDAY. VERY WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE LATER MONDAY. WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB RH REMAINS DRY WITH SOME MOISTENING NORTH AREAS MONDAY. LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING...BUT VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARDS IOWA BUT THEN DROPS SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE COMPLETELY SO WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN AT PLAY IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH DROPS SOUTH MONDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE WARMING IS ALOFT WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1 THSD FT EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOIST LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION IS VERY SHALLOW...SO STRATUS NOT EXPECTED...JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHOUT THE PRIOR LEAD CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A BAND OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 925/850/700 MB SWINGS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD HIGH NORTH OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTA... BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTH LOW LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS IT WEAKENS AND A SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE SURFACE COLD HIGH SAGS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE REGION. WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE GFS LIFTS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SLOWER...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AS A RESULT THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW CLOSE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH AND ALSO LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TRACE/DUSTING ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTS TO AROUND 23 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE... BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 212008 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A GENERALLY QUIET MID-LATE FEBRUARY DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE FEATURES AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN STORY IS THE CONSISTENTLY GROWING ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY GIVES A PRETTY GOOD VIEW OF THE ICE COVER TODAY...WHICH ALMOST COVERS THE ENTIRE LAKE. THERE ARE A FEW GAPS OR SLUSHY AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHORELINE...NEAR ISLE ROYALE...OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FINALLY A GAP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH THE PROPER WIND DIRECTION (AROUND 340-350)...THERE WAS A STRONGER BAND THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTED TO BACK AND LIMIT THE FETCH OVER THE WATER. THAT STRONGER BAND DID LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION NEAR IRONWOOD...ALTHOUGH WEBCAMS INDICATED IT WAS VERY LOCALIZED. THESE VERY LOCALIZED AND NARROW BANDS ARE THE NORM WITH THE SMALL AREAS OF BREAKS IN THE ICE. THAT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE PARTS OF THE KEWEENAW AND ESPECIALLY ALGER COUNTY WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION IS PARALLEL TO THE LONGER STRETCH OF SLUSHY ICE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE. WHERE THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED...THEY HAVE BEEN PRODUCING UP TO AN HALF INCH AN HOUR ACCUMULATION...BUT ARE ONLY AROUND 2 MILES WIDE. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL CU DEVELOPED AGAIN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS LED TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...2PM TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AT KIWD/KCMX AND INTO THE LOWER 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AS THOSE PUSH EAST...THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH MID EVENING. EXPECT THE NARROW BAND LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO STAY FAIRLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING (ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CU WITH DIMINISH)...AS THERE ARE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT. BUT AS MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE TO EXPAND. THIS IS DUE TO THE 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND -17C AT THE PRESENT TIME TO AROUND -26C AT 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THAT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH HEAT FLUX THROUGH THE THIN ICE AREAS AND ICE FREE GAPS TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR LAKE EFFECT. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS THOUGH. FIRST...MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE BELOW 800MB DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING...WONDERING IF THAT IS A LITTLE OVERDONE ON THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF. VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON ISN/T SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING FOR CLOUDS IN THAT AREA OF ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WITH THE 12Z GEM HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN THAT AREA...WITH TREND THAT DIRECTION FOR MOISTURE POTENTIAL. THIS KEEPS POPS GENERALLY IN THE ISOLATED- SCATTERED REALM FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF THE OPENINGS IN THE ICE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL LIMIT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO THE 3-5KFT RANGE. IF THERE WAS MORE OPEN WATER...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE STRONGER BANDS CAPABLE OF REACHING 7KFT...BUT THE LIMITED OVER THE LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY LOCALIZED BANDS IN CHECK. THAT COLD AIR WILL TRANSITION THE CLOUD FROM BEING WITHIN THE DGZ AND THE FLUFFIER FLAKES SEEN TODAY TO A SMALL/FINE FLAKE SNOW. WHILE THAT WILL KEEP THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK...IT WILL HELP TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITHIN THOSE NARROW BANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE CONCERNS IN THE MOISTURE AND EXPECTED VERY LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE BANDS...WILL KEEP TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES IN THE FAVORED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL PICKUP SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING LOWS FOR TONIGHT (TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO) AND WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE EXISTING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THEN WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AT OR BELOW ZERO FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...MAYBE REACHING 6 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE FOR FEB 22 IS -5...WHICH IS THE FORECASTED HIGH FOR TOMORROW. BUT...WHEN FACTORING IN WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY BE AT MIDNIGHT (AROUND ZERO)...WE SHOULDN/T BREAK THAT RECORD. SINCE THE WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE WEST STAY IN THE -20S AND FEEL CARRYING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY INTO MONDAY MORNING IS FINE OVER THE WEST. OVER THE EAST...STILL HAVE WIND CHILLS RISING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SINCE THEY QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING...OPTED TO EXTEND THOSE ADVISORIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO SIMPLIFY THINGS AFTER DISCUSSING IT WITH THE LONG TERM SHIFT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 THE PERSISTENT 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A BRIEF RIDGE SETTING UP AROUND 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY OFF THE 20/18Z GFS. THE 20/18Z AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGING...RESULTING IN MORE OF A GENERAL W-E FLOW. INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 10-15KTS...TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE SMALLER SNOW FLAKES THAT HAVE BEEN VERY AFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD AT 12Z SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND NW WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS PUSHING WIND CHILLS TO -25 TO - 30F CWA WIDE. WIND CHILL ADVISORY POSTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL GO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT MENOMINEE /WHICH MAY BE A BIT WARMER/. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE W HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ON WAA SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...AND TOP OUT TUESDAY IN THE 20S. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND -10C AT 12Z TUESDAY. THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF COLD WAVES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR BEHIND...HOVERING OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 500MB LOW. WHILE THE LOW ITSELF SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THE COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -27C OVER UPPER MI WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS...THANKS TO RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WINDS AND ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE THE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE NEARLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT E OF MARQUETTE THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT...WHICH WILL SEE THE LONGEST FETCH OFF ANY OPEN WATERS WITH THE N OR NW WINDS THAT WILL BE DOMINATING MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 06Z TUESDAY CROSSING JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS PAINING 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE ECMWF IS LESS IMPRESSIVE. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES FROM THE CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME...UNTIL A MORE STEADY SOLUTION IS ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 112 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 EVEN WITH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN OVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH HEAT COMING OFF THE LAKE TO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS SNOWBELTS. THE STRONGEST SNOW IS OCCURRING RIGHT AT KIWD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A POCKET OF OPEN WATER OR SLUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A FETCH TO LEAD TO VERY FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT OVER THE SITE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NW AND A LESS FAVORABLE FETCH FOR THE SITE. AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND LAKE INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIMITED GAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT. WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SMALLER FLAKES AND BETTER VISIBILITY REDUCERS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR KIWD/KCMX TO SEE REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS. BUT...IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE WIND DIRECTION WITH THE ICE COVERAGE. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE...ALSO DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING UPSTREAM MOISTURE...OPTED TO LEAVE VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES AT LOW END MVFR. AT KSAW...A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE AND WINDS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...HAVE JUST BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT TO PRIMARILY KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEPARTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS LEADING TO ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BRUSH THE AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35-40KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30KTS AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 200921 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 321 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW WAS PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR CWA. AN AREA OF WAA WAS DRIVING MOST OF THE LIFT THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TODAY AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SNOWFALL FROM A HALF TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE LIGHTEST ON SNOWFALL. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER IN THE MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SPOTS. OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH VSBYS AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY AN OB OR TWO REPORTING LESS THAN 2SM...AND SOME OF THAT MAY BE BLOWING/DRIFTING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW FALL THIS MORNING. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE WHERE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF ICE PRESENT BUT IT WILL ONLY TAKE A LITTLE OPEN/THIN ICE TO ADD SOME TO THE SNOW TOTALS. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO WRING OUT SOME SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WE DID INCREASE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT. WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE ICE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES TODAY. IT WILL BE COLDER FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE 15 TO 20 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE LONG PERIODS IN WHICH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE REGION...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS NO POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OPPORTUNITY IN SIGHT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN COLD AS ANOTHER NW FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY SUNDAY...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE IOWA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -25 DEGREES OR COLDER DURING THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN CANADA. THIS BRING WARMER AIR TO THE NORTHLAND...BUT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHLAND WILL GET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 17 7 14 -18 / 90 20 10 0 INL 17 -7 4 -27 / 90 20 10 0 BRD 23 7 13 -19 / 80 20 10 0 HYR 17 9 18 -15 / 90 30 10 10 ASX 17 8 18 -13 / 90 30 20 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...DAP  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 182124 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 424 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... ARCTIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING... THEN OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. BAND OF SNOW SHWRS TO ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY END BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT A 2-3 HR WINDOW OF LIKELY POPS WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA WITH AN AREA OF CHC POPS BEHIND IT. ANY QUICK BURST OF SNOW COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK 1/2 INCH OVER MOST OF THE FA...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE ERN SHORE WHERE AN UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. TIMING APPEARS TO BE 4-6 PM WEST OF I95...5-7 PM I95 CORRIDOR...6-8 PM NRN NECK/MIDDLE PEN...7-9 PM ERN SHORE...SERN VA/NE NC. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP OFF INLAND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN FINE TUNED WITH THIS PACKAGE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS AND FORECASTED WINDS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. DOING IT THIS WAY TO INDICATE THE IMPACT THE COLD WILL HAVE THURSDAY DESPITE WIND CHILLS GOING ABOVE ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE PIEDMONT...TO MID TEENS SE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THU/FRI. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY...QUITE POSSIBLY THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN OVER OUR REGION IN QUITE SOME TIME (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). 12Z DATA EVEN SUGGESTING SOME POTOMAC RIVER...CHESAPEAKE BAY STREAMERS THU AFTERNOON. THINK IT WILL BE TOO DRY IN LOWER LVLS FOR ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS LATEST BRUTAL COLD AIR SURGE WILL COME THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AS SFC HIGH OVER KY SLOWLY BUILDS E. BEST CHC FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE IS WEST OF I95 AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 1032+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVRHD THU NGT/FRI MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOS GUID IS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...SO FORECASTED MINS WILL REMAIN BLO EVEN THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF ZERO WEST OF I-95 AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST (AROUND 10 F AT SE VA/NE NC COAST). SUNNY BUT CONTINUED COLD WITH LESS WIND FRI DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AGAIN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTHR VRY COLD NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. WINDS TURN SOUTH...BUT TMPS WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE LATE. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR SAT EVEN AT THIS POINT. MODELS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AT BRINGING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN SAT. (GFS THE FASTEST IN THE MORNING...NAM A BIT SLOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z/18 ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH KEEPING SAT DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT). WILL GO WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND BRING N SOME LIGHT WINTER PCPN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT MORN...AND OVERSPREADING THE NRN HALF OF THE FA SAT AFTERNOON. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. EVEN AFTER THE COLD START...TMPS BY LATE IN THE DAY RISE INTO THE M-U30S. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING. KEPT CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS TMPS REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER FLOW REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS WRN CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN CONUS TROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NE STATES SUN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE NE STATES...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT. LOW LEVEL SWLY/RETURN FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVM FOR PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT SUN AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS. WAA/THICKNESS RISES WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DUE TO LINGERING SNOW PACK. HIGHS GENERALLY LOW-MID 50S. FRONT CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT...BUT STALLS OFF THE SE COAST AS WSW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST SUN NIGHT...AS COLD/DRY AIR SURGES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO PUSH OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP OVER THE NE ZONES. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THRU MID WEEK...WITH SUPPRESSING THE PRECIP OVER THE SE COAST/GULF STREAM. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...BUT KEEPS PRECIP ALONG THE SE COAST MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY TUES. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR UNCERTAINTY SE VA/NE NC MON NIGHT-TUES. AT THIS TIME...THERMAL PROFILES AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD BE FROZEN. SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDS...BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDS. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY WITH AN INCOMING SCT DECK AROUND 4000FT AGL BY LATE THIS AFTN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY EVENING AND WILL EXIT THE COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000FT AGL AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN -SHSN BTWN 18/2300Z AND 19/0300Z. A TEMPO GROUP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS (1/2SM) AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-35KT WAS ADDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY AND A COLD AIR SURGE WILL COMMENCE. NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED (GUSTS 25-30KT) LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. && .MARINE... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT LOCATES OVER THE PIEDMONT. WINDS GENERALLY SELY AOB 15 KT...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. THE ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH FLOW BECOMING W-NW POST FRONTAL. STRONG/STREADY LOW LEVEL CAA IN TANDEM WITH A RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KT. FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY AT THE ONSET OF CAA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND SHORT DURATION HAVE PREVENTED AN UPGRADE TO GALE HEADLINES. HAVE OPTED TO MONITOR AND ISSUE SMW AS NEEDED. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF W-NW WINDS 20-30 KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THRU THURS NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NE COAST AND 1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EWD. EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS TO 5 TO 9 FT TONIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT. WAVES 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES/SEAS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL OFF FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SLY FLOW RETURNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS SUN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GALE HEADLINES IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS IN EFFECT THRU THURS MORNING...WITH THE NRN WATERS (NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) RUNNING THRU FRI MORNING. SCA HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT THRU FRI MORNING. LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS AN AREA OF ICE IN THE POCOMOKE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ICE CHUNKS BREAKING OFF INTO THE NRN BAY. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ICE IN THE SOUND...BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE TEENS MAY ENHANCE THE ICE FIELD THRU FRI. WILL MENTION WAVES IN ICE FREE WATER IN CWF. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN BLOWOUT TIDES. WATER LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO 1.0 FOOT OR MORE BELOW MLLW DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN. && .CLIMATE... ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE TEENS. AT RICHMOND...THE LAST TIME THERE WERE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WAS BACK ON JAN 29TH-30TH IN 1966...WHEN BOTH DAYS HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGS F. THERE WAS ONLY ONE TIME THAT RICHMOND HAD A MINIMUM BELOW ZERO AFTER FEBRUARY 11TH. THIS WAS A READING OF MINUS 1 ON FEB 28 IN 1934. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO WAS ON JANUARY 28 IN 2000 WITH A READING OF MINUS 1. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS WAS FEB 4 1996...18 DEGS F. THE LAST TIME NORFOLK HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS WAS JAN 19 1994...13 DEGS F. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES... ...THU 2/19....FRI 2/20 RIC... 27 IN 1903 30 IN 1947 ORF... 30 IN 1993 29 IN 1904 SBY... 25 IN 1993 24 IN 1959 RECORD LOW MIN TEMPERATURES ...THU 2/19....FRI 2/20 RIC... 10 IN 1979 3 IN 1979 ORF... 14 IN 1903 13 IN 1896 SBY... 9 IN 1936 3 IN 1979 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ013>017-030>032-102. VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ048-049-060>083-085-087>090-092. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>100. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ084-086-091-093-094. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KAPX 160845 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS: EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD WITH A VERY DRY AND COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. 00Z APX SOUNDING PWAT WAS AN ASTOUNDINGLY LOW 0.02"...AND EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE -15 TO -30F RANGE. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY WIND AT THE TIME...SO WIND CHILLS DID NOT FACTOR INTO THE FRIGID EQUATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE WASN'T MUCH OF AN ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN HUDSON BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE DAKOTAS. PWATS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WEREN'T VERY IMPRESSIVE...INCREASED ONLY TO AROUND 0.15" AND WAA/DYNAMIC FORCING FAIRLY WEAK. THERE WAS ONLY SOME LIGHT 3-6SM SNOWS SEEN IN SW ONTARIO AND MN....AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MORE EXCITING WEATHER WAS DEVELOPING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...WHERE A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...AND SPREADING IT EASTWARD. SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER: NOT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT FOR NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT WIND SCENARIO IS KEEPING LAKE INSTABILITY OUT OVER THE LAKES...BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A SW WINDS DEVELOPS. THIS WILL WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PULL SOME OF THE LAKE CONVECTION (CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES) BACK INTO PARTS OF NW LOWER...GENERALLY LEELANAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MANISTEE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE COUNTIES...IMPACTING MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THESE SNOWS WILL PROGRESS UP THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL HAVE TO TRAVERSE MORE ICE...PER YESTERDAY AFETRNOON'S LATEST HI RES MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL HAVE A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE INTENSITY AND INLAND EXTENT OF THOSE SNOWS. DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES MAKING IT INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS REGION. WINDS DO INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WHEN HE SFC COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SYNOPTICALLY...WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING AND PWATS AT ONLY 0.15"...CANNOT SEE MORE THAN A HALF AN INCH ANYWHERE. ADD IN THE LAKES...AND COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES SPREADING INTO MAINLY NW LOWER...AND ESPECIALLY IN LEELANAU COUNTY...AND COUNTIES SOUTH. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS LESS ICE AND A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TOO...AS WAA DOES ALLOW MORE FAVORABLE H8 TEMPS/DGZ AND LIFT FOCUSED RIGHT ON IT. SO...CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PULLS THROUGH. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 9F-16F RANGE WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN CLOUDS 0F TO 10F. AT LEAST IT'S MORE TOLERABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ANYONE OUT THERE HAVE A "RETURN TO SENDER" STAMP I CAN APPLY FOR OUR MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER? I LIKE A GOOD COLD AIR OUTBREAK JUST AS MUCH AS THE NEXT WEATHER GEEK...BUT THIS PATTERN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS THAN AMUSING. AT LEAST IT'S A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...FEATURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY (JUST A SHADE SLOWER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS). THAT FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP UPPER TROUGHING EGREGIOUSLY TRESPASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT AMUSING 500MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -50C INDICATIVE OF JUST HOW COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE INTO MIDWEEK. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUS SETUP IN PLACE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARILY TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WITH SOME REAL CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS - PRIMARILY DOWNSTATE AS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES ABUTTING OUR CWA HAS REALLY FROZEN UP OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST FOR A TIME. HAVING SAID THAT...MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND IT IS VERY INTERESTING TO SEE A HUGE HOLE IN QPF SIGNALS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF EXPANSIVE ICE COVER IN THE MODELS...AND BACKED UP BY YESTERDAY'S HI-RES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE MICHIGAN FROZEN DOWN TO SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT. STILL...WITH THAT SAID...SECONDARY TROUGH/LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH AXIS WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONNECT US UP TO A BIT MORE OPEN (THOUGH NOT BY MUCH) LAKE SUPERIOR...AT LEAST SUGGESTIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BETTER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. HONESTLY NOT THAT IMPRESSED WITH THE SETUP GIVEN ALL THAT ICE AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF ANY LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. THE MORE INTERESTING WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIMARILY DOWNSTATE AS OUR DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. SHARP LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW COUPLED WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME BELOW 900MB STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY ONE OF SEVERAL LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHS...WITH A VERY STABLE SIGNAL FOR FORCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER WHERE A PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUCKED BENEATH AN AXIS OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THAT SNOW BAND MAY JUST SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (LOOKING AT YOU MANISTEE AND BENZIE) BUT WITH A TREND FOR LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO LIKELY WORK IN BOTH FROM ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN ICE COVER TO DICTATE LITTLE MORE THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. IN SUCH A MESOSCALE-DOMINATE SETUP...CONFIDENCE IS NATURALLY LOW AND NEAR TERM UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED...BUT HONESTLY BELIEVE MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL RESIDE OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. INSTEAD...WE WILL DEAL WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF VERY COLD AIR...AS H8 TEMPS DIVE BACK TOWARD -30C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...SUGGESTING HIGHS BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW ZERO BUT HIGHLY DICTATED BY HARD-TO-FORECAST CLOUD TRENDS. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 INCREASINGLY QUIET WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMS UP ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SETUP AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RID MANY AREAS OF ANY SNOW SHOWER THREAT WITH OFFSHORE CIRCULATIONS DOMINANT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EXTREMELY COLD READINGS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. ECMWF 2-METER GUIDANCE ALREADY INDICATING SUB-MINUS 20 READINGS IN MANY AREAS...AND PROVIDED CLOUD ISSUES DON'T CREEP UP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD GAMBLE. AFTER THAT...LOOKING A BIT MORE "MILD" INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE RELAX THE OVERALL DEPTH OF TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THOUGH WITH A GOOD DEAL OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. AT THE MOMENT...THE MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN THE STREAMS FOR A MORE STRUNG OUT (BUT GULF MOISTURE-LOADED) SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THIS PATTERN DOES HAVE BETTER PHASING POTENTIAL. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT ALL UNFOLD OVER THE COMING DAYS. AFTER ALL...WE HAVE PLENTY TO KEEP OURSELVES BUSY UP UNTIL THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 VFR TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND SOME SHSN LIKELY AT PLN MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO TVC/MBL IN THE EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN WI BY LATE MONDAY. MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. LOW-END VFR STRATOCU WILL MOVE INTO MBL/TVC/PLN MONDAY...AS WEAK SW LOW- LEVEL FLOW BEGINS. LAKE-EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE AT PLN DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO TVC/MBL DURING THE EVENING. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES MONDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SMD SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE LONG TERM...LAWRENCE AVIATION...JAZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 111008 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 408 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015 .DISCUSSION... A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST CONUS. THREE DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL RESULT IN A COLD PERIOD FOR THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED IN OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST TWO FRONTS...HOWEVER A DIFFERENT SETUP AHEAD OF THE THIRD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR A HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EVENT. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW BELOW. CHANGES ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE NE PAC WHICH WILL FORCE A COLD PATTERN FOR THE TN VALLEY FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. THE LATEST MULTI-SPECTRAL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP MOIST PLUME EXTENDING INTO WRN CANADA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THIS IS FORCING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. GOES WATER VAPOR AND MODIS AIRMASS IMAGERY INDICATE AT LEAST TWO PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING SWRD IN THIS REGION. THE LEADING EDGE IS LIKELY A MIX OF NE PAC AND CONTINENTAL/CANADIAN AIRMASSES...HOWEVER THE TRAILING AIRMASS IS MODIFIED ARCTIC. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...AROUND MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES ABOUT SIX HOURS OR SO LATER EARLY THURS MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD DAY TODAY...TEMPS ON THURS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOC/W THE COLD AIRMASS AND CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY IN SAT IMAGERY IN THE UPR MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSOLATION...HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMP RISES THURS...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES AND/OR LGT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF EAST TENN AND THE SOUTHERN APPS. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE PLATEAU WARRANTS AT LEAST A 20 POP MENTION FOR NOW. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVHD THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID TEENS. A FEW OF OUR NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GOOD COLD AIR DRAINAGE MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE BELOW NORMAL...THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE RECORD VALUES FOR THE 13TH (-11F FOR MUSCLE SHOALS AND 7F FOR HUNTSVILLE). TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. SUCCESSIVE LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS RESULTING TROUGH AND THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN OUR AREA...PRIMARILY SHOVING THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOC/W THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CROSS THE AREA PROBABLY BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON. A NARROW LINE OF MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY EVEN WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT CENTERED ARND 850MB MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ALTITUDES. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ADVECTION AT/NEAR THE SFC MAY PREVENT ANY FLURRIES OR LGT SNOW SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE SFC. THUS...NO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE OFFICIAL FCST. TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW/MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE PROSPECT FOR GOOD INSOLATION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FURTHER STEEPENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE NE PAC WILL LEAD TO REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT EVEN THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS YET ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. 00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC...WHICH WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC CYCLOGENESIS THEN TAKES PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTS IN SW-NE TILTING OF THE POLAR FRONT AND STRONGER WAA OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THEN A RAPID WARMUP WOULD TAKE PLACE BEGINNING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AN INSPECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR FRONT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT/TRACK OF ANY SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW. SOME TRACKS ARE STILL TO OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH...SEVERAL ARE CLUSTERED WITH TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA OR TO OUR NORTH...INCLUDING THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT PLACES THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING. AT THE ONSET OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ON MONDAY AFTN...TEMPS MAY BE BRIEFLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW FLAKES OR ICE PELLETS MIXING WITH RAIN. CHANCES APPEAR SLIM HOWEVER...AND THE DETAILS OF THE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD ARE STILL NOT CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. NEVERTHELESS...ROBUST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER MAINLY FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND DEEP/COLD ADVECTION BEGINS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA/-SN MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE AND WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. KDW && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1119 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2015/ FOR 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 2 KFT CONTINUES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THEY MAY LINGER AROUND UNTIL MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. STUMPF && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 58 30 35 16 / 0 10 10 0 SHOALS 59 29 36 15 / 0 10 10 0 VINEMONT 58 31 36 14 / 0 10 10 0 FAYETTEVILLE 55 29 32 13 / 0 10 10 0 ALBERTVILLE 57 32 36 20 / 0 10 10 0 FORT PAYNE 57 31 36 16 / 0 10 10 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 062223 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 123 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL THE MIDRANGE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER YAKUTAT AND KODIAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROUGH IS BROADER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS. SINCE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS IS JUST SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...552 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR IS SLOWLY BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 501 DAM LOW MOVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE 500 DAM LOW OVER YAKUTAT THAT FORMED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT OF CANADA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TONIGHT AS A 497 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE YUKON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THE LOW OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT OVER SAND POINT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN LOOP BACK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW LOOPS BACK NORTH A 508 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO KOTZEBUE TO BETHEL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BELOW ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM BEGINS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST AND WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO RUBY TO HEALY AND BY MONDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO BETTLES TO TOK. SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST FROM A 983MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ARCTIC FROM A 1045MB RIDGE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A 1042MB CENTER MOVING TO JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND A 1040MB CENTER DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR. A 1028MB CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A 1026MB CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS EARLY SATURDAY. A 965MB LOW OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND THE RIDGE OVER RUSSIA BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...AND THE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BUILDS...THE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL STRENGTHEN. THE BUILDING RIDGES WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS A SECOND FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EAST OF NUIQSUT WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 203 AND 206. WINDS KICKED UP A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN NEAR ZERO SO WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD FOR ZONE 204 THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WILL NEED TO ISSUE SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WINDS INCREASING IN GENERAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FALLING. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 207...209...AND 213. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR ON SUMMITS. COLDEST AREAS WILL CONTINUE BE THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...STILL LOOKING LIKE RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 06/1535Z AND NPP VIIRS AT 06/1511Z CLEARLY SHOW THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND AROUND INDIAN MOUNTAIN. OUT WEST THE STRATUS CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 06/1845Z NOT SHOWING INDICATING MUCH AS FAR AS POOR CONDITIONS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230- PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 060305 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 905 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR STEADY TEMPS THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES FURTHER EAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES ONCE THE WIND SUBSIDES SO MAY LOWER A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT LOWS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE REPORTED 46KT WINDS AT 1.5KFT RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 06Z AS UPSTREAM WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION LATER FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FRI NGT AS HIGHER SFC DEWPTS MOVE INTO THE REGION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT. && .MARINE...STATUS QUO ON ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. LAKESHORE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE TNGT WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTINESS TO SUBSIDE. HI RES MODIS AQUA IMAGE FROM TODAY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVER THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE ICE TO THIN AND BREAK UP. WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD ALSO ERODE THE ICE COVER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION SOUTH OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE PROGGING ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO FALL IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL A STRONG PUSH OF H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BKN TO OVC SKIES SHOULD STICK AROUND OUR CWA TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO REACH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AROUND THE CWA DUE TO DECENT H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION. 12Z GFS MODEL IS PROGGING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH 4-5C IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EITHER THROUGH THE CWA OR JUST EXITING AT 12Z SATURDAY. SREF PROB OF VSBY < 3 MILES JUMPS TO 80 PCT IN WEST 1/2 BY 06Z SAT AND CWA WIDE BY 12Z...BUT MOS GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE SO WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. RELATIVELY SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH BELOW INVERSION AND LACK OF OMEGA LEADS TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT REDUCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SO LOWERED POPS. STILL COULD BE SLICK WHERE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE DOES FALL WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION...WITH SOME DRYING SHRINKING CLOUD DEPTH SO CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LOWERS EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. NO BIG JUMP IN SURFACE TEMPS DUE TO INVERSION BUT SHOULD SEE READINGS SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM VARIABILITY IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW HAVING A BIG IMPACT ON DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE. FORCING FOCUSES BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN AS LOW APPROACHES AND WITH DEFORMATION ZONE CROSSING AREA SUNDAY. CONSENSUS TEMPS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTH WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH A PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEHIND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER WITH JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND CWA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET SOUTH...WITH ALL SNOW NORTH. MEAGER SNOW/LIQUID RATIONS UNDER 10:1 WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH AND UNDER AN INCH SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBLE MIX. QUIET BUT TURNING COLDER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW ZERO LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR 45 KTS WILL OCCUR AT 2000 METERS DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 3 AM FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD TURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATER FRIDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 052232 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 132 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z RUNS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z AT THE SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL 132 HOURS OR SO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO NUDGE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...553 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY WITH THE ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING EAST TO THE BEAUFORT SEA TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MAINLAND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL DIG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A 511 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER YAKUTAT AND BECOMING STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY A 497 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER KODIAK ISLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR 80N TONIGHT AND DIVE SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY WITH A 504 DAM LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRUDHOE BAY...THE LOW DISSIPATES RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS ABSORBED BY THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN SIBERIA AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM BARROW TO YAKUTAT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL MOVE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT 20 BELOW OR COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIE OVER ALL BUT THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO TOKSOOK BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 30 BELOW OR COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING SUNDAY. SURFACE...1038MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO A 1035MB HIGH OVER PRUDHOE BAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE BERING STRAIT AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT NEAR 80 NORTH FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY DRAG EAST AND SOUTH EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING FROM A 1041MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN SIBERIA WILL EXTEND EAST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY EARLY FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. A 1038MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN SUNDAY MORNING. A 967MB LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MERGE WITH A 976MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR YAKUTAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVES BACK TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE HILLS WILL PICK UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MOST ACTIVE AREA IN THE FORECAST AREA. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HAZARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AS THE SECOND FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC AND WINDS INCREASE. NOT MUCH SNOW WITH THE FRONT SO BLIZZARD POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW AND WINDS WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL. WILL GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203 AND 206. KEEPING THE WIND CHILL FOR ZONE 203 BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO BE MORPHED INTO SOMETHING ELSE LATER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT DIVES SOUTH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS. SOME PATCHY STRATUS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CEILINGS TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND MAY CREEP EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 05/1308Z SHOWS SOME STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WITH SOME EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WEST OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH MOVEMENT BUT IT MAY DRIFT OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME STRATUS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO THE WEST OF FORT YUKON. THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE IS SOMETHING IN THOSE AREAS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ207. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 041955 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 155 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 .UPDATE... 1032 AM CST GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...WITH BANDED SNOW AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS INDICATE MODERATE SNOW WITHIN THE BANDS OF MORE REFLECTIVE RADAR RETURNS...WITH VISIBILITY 1/2-3/4 MILE NOTED IN SEVERAL SFC OBS FROM THE IA/MO BORDER REGION THROUGH THE PONTIAC AREA RECENTLY. ANALYSIS OF MORNING RAOB AND MODEL DATA INDICATES FORCING IS LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED THIS MORNING...WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS AS WELL AS ANOTHER DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK TO OUR WEST...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN 600-700 MB LAYER AND THE RESULTING VERTICAL AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION...WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE STRONGER BANDING SEEN IN RADAR RETURNS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GRADUAL WEAKENING OF F-GEN SUPPORT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STRONGER UPPER MIDWEST SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFIES THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECAST THINKING...SO OTHER THAN EXPANDING HIGHER POPS INTO AREAS WHERE LIGHTER SNOW IS FALLING... HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST OR SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND AFOREMENTIONED VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS. RATZER && .SHORT TERM... 336 AM CST THROUGH THURSDAY... FAST MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY HARD HITTING SNOW EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THE CHICAGO URBAN CORRIDOR. FIRST ON THE DOCKET IS SNOW. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120KT+ 300MB JET STEAK OVER THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN LAKES TODAY WITH JET PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEARLY 140KT AS IT EXITS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE JETLET IS PROGGED TO EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN WI TO UPSTATE NY BY 18Z PLACING OUR CWA IN THE SWEET SPOT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. DEEP TROPOSPHERIC THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STEAK AND DEVELOPING DEEP F-GEN FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID EASTWARD DEVELOP OF THE SNOW OVER NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS SYSTEM...GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH THE F-GEN. MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY ARE JUST A TICK WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SEE POCKETS OF NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV WITH THE WARM SIDE OF THE F-GEN CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY STRONG AND SOMEWHAT NARROW BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP. OMEGA IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY AND PEAK OMEGA VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY CLOSELY COLLOCATED WITH THE PRIME DGZ TEMP ZONE...WHICH RAISES THE THREAT OF MORE EFFICIENT HIGHER RATIO SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND. LEANED HEAVILY ON HIGHER RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF MESOSCALE BANDING TO DEVELOP...WHICH THESE MODELS SHOULD TEND TO RESOLVE BETTER. GIVEN WE SAW BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES >1IN/HOUR YESTERDAY WITH 1/4SM SNOWS AND THE SETUP LOOKS EVEN BETTER TODAY...SEE NO REASON THAT WE WONT HAVE A REPEAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOP WITH THE BANDING AGAIN TODAY WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE MESOSCALE BANDING LOOKS TO ALIGN A BIT BETTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LONGER RESIDENCE TIME UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW BAND FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMS IN THE GRIDS TO 2-5" RANGE SOUTH OF I-80 AND HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WX ADV. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOWER THRESHOLD OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD...FELT THE POTENTIAL FOR +SN AND RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR MADE IT EASY TO JUSTIFY THE HEADLINE. NOT EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THIS TO OCCUR...BUT IF THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST THEN IT WOULD NOT TAKE TERRIBLY LONG FOR THE BAND TO STALL OUT TO HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS PILE UP TO LOCALLY AROUND 6 INCHES WHICH IS REASONING FOR INCLUSION OF LOCALLY HEAVIER WORDING IN WSW. THE SNOWS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 23-00Z WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND T/H X-SECTIONS SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RAPID CLEARING TAKING PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG 1038MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE CORN BELT THIS EVENING WITH MODEST NW WINDS USHERING IN BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS...AIDED BY THE DEEP AND IN MANY CASES REFRESHED SNOW PACK. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TOWARD N IL AND AM CONCERNED THAT WINDS COULD LARGELY DECOUPLE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TANKING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY COLD DRAINAGE AREAS LIKE THE FOX AND ROCK RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF UNDERCUTTING LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO LOWS FORECAST. IT WOULD TAKE VERY LITTLE WIND TO RESULT IN ADVISORY WORTHY WIND CHILLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS/WIND SPEEDS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUMP ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW...WOULD RATHER LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAKE FINAL CALL ON. IZZI && .LONG TERM... 336 AM CST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MILDER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP SNOWPACK WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RETARD OUR WARM UP LOCALLY...THOUGH TEMPS DO LOOK TO EVENTUALLY CLIMB TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING BEGINNING THE VERY SLOW MELTING PROCESS OF THE FOOT TO FOOT AND A HALF OF SNOW THAT IS ON THE GROUND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHER THAN SMALL CHANCE OF SOME FZG DRIZZLE/FOG FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE WARMER AIR MOVING INTO LOOK FOR DRY WX THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD SIDESWIPE US LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIP WHICH COULD TAKE ABOUT ANY FORM GIVEN THE SPREAD IN FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES THAT FAR OUT. AFTER TONIGHT/THURSDAY'S COLD SNAP LOOK FOR A RETURN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY THE MUCH ABOVE AVG NIGHTTIME LOWS). IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES REDUCING VSBY TO IFR. * NNW/NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS SET UP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS REDUCING VISIBILITY GENERALLY INTO THE 1-2SM FRAME...THOUGH A FEW BANDS HAVE RESULTED IN VSBY BRIEFLY 1/2 TO 3/4 SM. THE BETTER FORCING IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE BETTER SNOW TO AS WELL...WITH CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE AFTER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SNOW SHOULD END ALTOGETHER AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGHER END MVFR IF NOT VFR. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE 320-340 RANGE REST OF TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS EVENING TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THIS EVENING. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING/VSBY. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS STAYING AT OR BELOW 20 KT. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/WX NIL. SW WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL. SW WINDS. SATURDAY...VFR/WX NIL DURING THE DAY. CHANCE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E WINDS. SUNDAY...CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE WINDS. MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL. NE WINDS. TUESDAY...VFR/WX NIL. S WINDS. KREIN && .MARINE... 154 PM CST MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST/WEST GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MORE MODEST NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW ALSO APPEARS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND HELPING TO SLOWLY INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE LAKE...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HIGH CENTER OVER THE PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...AS THE HIGH SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THUS HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS FROM 3 PM CST THURSDAY THROUGH 3 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE LAKE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING TO THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW THEN LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A PERIOD OF MODESTLY STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW...DEPENDING UPON THE ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. FOR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IL...EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR IND. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ICE SEEN IN MODIS POLAR ORBITER SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH... BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS BY THURSDAY EVENING. WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND ALLOW CURRENT ONE TO PLAY OUT AND ALLOW MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE DURATION OF LESS THAN SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023 UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 3 PM WEDNESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL NOON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 040928 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 428 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 EXACT DETAILS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT. NW WIND LES IS BEING IMPACTED BY SHEETS OF ICE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOOKING AT MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MADE THAT DIFFICULT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS EXTENSIVE ICE COVER S-SSE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS LOOKS TO DECREASE LES AMOUNTS/COVERAGE BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. ADDITIONALLY...ICE COVER OVER THE ERN LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG LAND BREEZE/CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND WHITEFISH POINT...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THAT COVERS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...AS FOR WHAT IS GOING ON NOW WE ARE SEEING LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP FORCED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND NW WIND LES RAMPING UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS CROSSED LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS RESULTING IN LITTLE CONTRIBUTION TO ACCUMULATIONS. MEANWHILE...LES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS 850MB TEMPS DECREASE FROM AROUND -20C CURRENTLY TO AROUND -27C BY 00Z THU. AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN...THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE LESS IN THE DGZ SO SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 20 TO 1 BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BOOSTING LES AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS INCREASE TO AROUND 11KFT. WITH MORE LIMITED SNOW RATIOS...THINK THAT VIS REDUCTION FROM THE SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND BLOWING SNOW /GUSTS TO 35MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THE EVENT. HAVE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON UP TO 7 INCHES TODAY AND NEAR GRAND MARAIS UP TO 6 INCHES. OF COURSE...THESE AMOUNTS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE E/ ARE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG AND WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE SETS UP SO AMOUNTS COULD EASILY BE GREATER...MAINLY OVER THE E. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. SHOULD SEE A STEADY DIMINISHING TREND TO LES FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...LEADING TO REDUCED INVERSIONS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIER AIR. HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST ALL NIGHT FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MUNISING AS WINDS WILL ARC ENOUGH ACROSS THE LAKE TO FAVOR SNOW IN THESE AREAS. AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AND 1-2 INCHES BETWEEN ONTONAGON/ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 0C /LAKE SHORE/ TO -15C /INTERIOR W/ RANGE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS READINGS OF -20 TO -25...BUT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND VALUES WILL BE BORDER AT WORST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING MODERATELY IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 10KFT). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS) MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERING AND WINDS BACKING...LEADING TO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND THE ICE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AIDING IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT WILL SHOW SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (TOWARDS 3 INCHES) DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO LARGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER LOCATED ABOVE THE DGZ AND PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. WHILE THIS WILL BE EFFECT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BAND...THE WEAKENING WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE BAND. WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR WEST OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL PROVIDE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT AREA (TEENS BELOW ZERO). WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THAT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WILL SHOW LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THAT AREA...BUT AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE WILL GIVE A VERY QUICK BREAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN TURN THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOVING ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY). MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY (FROM A HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA)...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH KEEPING INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4-5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE TOO MUCH BUT WILL STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES FOR THE FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND AREA (ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS). THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT (MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING UNDER THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUSH ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 AT KCMX...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED EVENING. INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO BLSN. AT KIWD/KSAW...AS WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND TRAJECTORIES. EXPECT - SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW. WED EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KIWD AND KSAW WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN BACK SW AND STRENGTHEN ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT PASSES LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE SW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES THU AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 15-25KT OUT OF THE N FOR SAT. WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE INTO SUN AS THEY VEER EASTERLY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002- 003-006-007. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...TITUS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 030605 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS SEEN ON RADAR AND SFC OBS. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV TO OUR NORTHEAST SECTIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 625 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NOT COUNTY AVERAGE. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SHSN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WAS MOVING THRU THE MOUNTAINS AT 18Z. THIS HAS BEEN SERVING TO ENHANCE THE SNOW...WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE THE TROF AXIS PASSES. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM HERE ON OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR THE N MOUNTAINS GOING. ELSEWHERE...THE SHSN WILL BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WORKING STEADILY THRU OH AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH MANY PLACES SCT OUT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE SHSN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO WIND DOWN AFTER 06Z. THE STRATOCU MAY TRY TO REFORM ACROSS SE OH LATE. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RELAX WITH MODEST WAA ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF INTO NC WITH A LIGHT SW WIND DEVELOPING. TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED. OVERALL...EXPECT A GOOD RECOVERY S ZONES...BUT REMAINING COLD ACROSS THE N. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE E RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING A SWRLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO TAKE OVER. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD SLIP BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA TUE NT INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW GETS DRAGGED THROUGH THE AREA WED NT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK NEAR CHICAGO AS THE SFC FRONT IS CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SPELLS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW LATE WED NT INTO THU. AT THIS POINT...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR S...BUT THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE N. WE DRY OUT THU MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES OVER. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THU MET AND MAV FOR LOWS TUE NT...WHICH MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW. BLENDED IN THE MET FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED...THE MAV WAS HIGHER STILL. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD ADVECTION WED NT INTO THU...USED A RAW NAM/GFS BLEND WITH GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND THEN DERIVED LOWS WED NT AND HIGHS THU FROM THERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD AIR BEHIND A SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND EACH SYSTEM. THEREFORE...USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS/NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW STRATO CU...EVIDENT IN MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES...CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO INCLUDING PKB. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THIS AREA FROM THE WEST. CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER LIGHT SNOW AT BKW...HTS...AND CRW. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 09Z...PERHAPS PERSISTING OVER EKN AND BKW THROUGH 12Z. VERY LIGHT OR LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE VFR SOONER THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 02/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021241 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 341 AM AKST MON FEB 2 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED VERY WELL AT 06Z. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF IT COOLING BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARCTIC SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR COVERAGE AND NUDGE WITH THE OTHER MODELS TO GET PROBABILITIES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...558 HPA RIDGE EXTENDS WEST TO BRISTOL BAY THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS SPLIT AS A 530 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING AND DROPS SOUTH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARCTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING TO EAST OF BARROW THIS AFTERNOON...TO MACKENZIE BAY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING FROM THE 559 DAM HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A SECOND MAJOR SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN JUST EAST OF BARROW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO MACKENZIE BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 12 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL BEGIN TO COOL WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO 12 TO 30 BELOW CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM SLIGHTLY BEFORE WHAT MAY BE A MAJOR COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD. SURFACE...1038MB HIGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING ...AND A 1043MB HIGH LIES OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CANADA LATER TODAY. A 1010MB LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA IS MOVING EAST THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER PRUDHOE BAY WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 1015MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE LOW AS A 1035MB HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN LATE TUESDAY...THE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SPREADING EAST AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. CLEARING BEGINS IN THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE DROPS INTO THE ARCTIC PLAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW WITH THE LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW ENDING FROM THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATES. SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE NULATO HILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLOUDS TRANSITING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. MOSTLY CLEAR BY TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND ALONG THE TANANA RIVER AS THE TANANA JET HAS KICKED IN...BUT WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAGLE AREA AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE ALSO ON A DOWNWARD TREND. TEMPERATURES START A COOLING TREND AND WILL FALL 15 TO 35 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME CONCENSUS TEMPERATURES GOING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND STAYING COLD INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO THE ARCTIC COAST EVERY COUPLE DAYS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE EVENTS. WEST COAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN QUIET. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0839Z SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AND EXTENDING WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 02/0930Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 011236 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 336 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN THE CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90 HOURS ON THE MAJOR FEATURES. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER A LOT ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND AS THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE KEEPING IT COLD AND MAKING IT COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA...SO WILL LEAN QUITE A BIT ON THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY SEEM MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR TEMPERATURES WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL JUST USE A BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH 556 DAM CENTER OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL WEAKEN TO 549 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER KING SALMON BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AT 545 DAM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 561 DAM RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SHORTWAVE OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 529 DAM CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO NORTON SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...THEN TO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES. RIDGING FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT THEN ROTATE SOUTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SIBERIA TODAY AND MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND. SURFACE...1046MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING EXTENDS WEST TO A 1034MB HIGH IN THE BERING STRAIT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH 1010MB LOW AND FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST...AND A WEAKER FRONT WITH A 1014MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND DISSIPATING. THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A 1041MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEGINNING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN COAST...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SOME HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY. WARMER NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THEN THE COOLING BEGINS IN EARNEST. WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH AND WILL SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BIG PATCH OF STRATUS WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...AND THAT WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES TO MOST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA. WILL BE BOOTED OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT IF IT DOES NOT DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT. WEAK LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE COASTAL AND ADJACENT AREAS...BUT IT WILL IN MOST CASES NOT BE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRIESTS INLAND WITH WINDS ALONG THE COAST BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS. A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND STRETCHES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WILL BE A PROBLEM. WILL KEEP THE STRATUS AROUND AS IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE EXPANDING AT THIS TIME AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR IT TO DISSIPATE. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...COOLER THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE AS COLD AIR SINKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE MODELS AS THEY CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON WHETHER IT WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD MOVING IN TO THE AREA. SATELLITE...LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS FROM THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND WEST CAN BE SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 01/0755Z AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 01/1030Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225. && $$ SDB FEB 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 311342 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 442 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY OUT TO AROUND 120 HOURS. SHORT TERM IS VERY GOOD WITH STRONG CONCENSUS ON MAJOR FEATURES AND POSITIONS OVER THE FIRST 60 HOURS. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE PUSHING A WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY ON AGAIN. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL JUST USE A BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND WITH A 561 DAM HIGH OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AT 557 DAM SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFTS SOUTH OVER COOK INLET MONDAY MORNING AT 551 DAM. 502 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SHARPEN UP AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT EXTENDS FROM AROUND 75N TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND WEST COAST. SURFACE...1054MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON RIVER WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TO A 1046MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TILT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE TO LIE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY MONDAY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 1040MB CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND A 1032MB CENTER OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A 1004MB LOW NEAR 76N 140W WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING TO BANKS ISLAND BY LATE EVENING. A 1004MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND SLOWLY DRAG ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONDITIONS HAVE CALMED A BIT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST UNTIL LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT IS STALL DRAGGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE SOME SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST. STILL SEEING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED WEST OF BARTER ISLAND SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ZONE 206. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...EVERYTHING HAS SETTLED DOWN AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AROUND UNTIL MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON MONDAY. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP SO IT IS POSSIBLE IT MAY CHANGE AGAIN. SATELLITE...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AROUND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE ARCTIC COAST IS EASILY SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 31/0852Z AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 31/1030Z. THE STRATUS OVER NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING STRAIT CAN ALSO BE CLEARLY SEEN ON BOTH PRODUCTS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240. && $$ SDB JAN 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 301217 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 317 AM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR FEATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY MINOR DEPARTURES AS WE GET INTO THE MIDRANGE. MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO WILL USE A BLEND AND NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...LEANING ON THE NAM AND SREF FOR PRECIPITATION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM A 561 DAM CENTER OVER THE BERING SEA WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE FAST FLOW WILL ALLOW A 499 DAM LOW TO ZIP EAST OVER THE ARCTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER BANKS ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER NORTON SOUND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AT 555 DAM BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND OVER COOK INLET BY MONDAY MORNING AT 548 DAM. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY 8 TO 18 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE RISE AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. SURFACE...1045MB HIGH HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A 997MB LOW 250NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR 77N 150W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW IS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE BARROW AREA LATE THIS MORNING...THE PRUDHOE BAY AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HANG UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...BUT STILL BE IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TAPERING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. EXPECT SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TO THE EAST SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED LOOK GOOD. WINDS COME UP SHARPLY IN ZONE 204 LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THAT AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW COOLING TREND. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FROM KIVALINA NORTH AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH. WINDS TAPERING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING. SNOW ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY INTO MID DAY SATURDAY WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN ZONE 208 AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN ZONE 217. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE BERING STRAIT. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD WILL HANG ON THROUGH TODAY THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...CONTINUED WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS HAVE CHANGED THINGS UP A BIT AND IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE COLD WILL HANG ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SATELLITE...A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE AREA SO THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 30/1000Z AND MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 30/0950Z NOT MUCH HELP...BUT SOME OF THE STRATUS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY CAN BE SEEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DOT LAKE AREA USING THE PRODUCTS IN COMBINATION. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ207- AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 291215 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...00Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 72 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BASED ON THE NAM WITH A NUDGE FROM THE SREF. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST AS RIDGING PUSHES BACK ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST WITH A 559 DAM CENTER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 DAM LOW NEAR THE SEA OF OKHOTSK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY NOON FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC TO BANKS ISLAND BY SATURDAY NOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE FROM THE CURRENT 12 TO 22 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW. EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. SURFACE...1005MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. 1043MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS MORNING WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A 985MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE INTO THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC THIS EVENING WITH A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST TO BANKS ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTING FOR AROUND 12 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST. WINDS INCREASING OVER THEN NORTHWEST COAST TO 30 TO 50 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205 STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE ANYTHING FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST SO WILL LEAVE THAT TO THE NEXT SHIFT. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES...THOUGH IT WILL BE HARD TO TELL WITH ALL THE WIND. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA FROM KIVALINA NORTH IT WILL BE REALLY QUIET. EXPECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IN THAT AREA SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA OF ZONE 207. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH HERE SOME FLURRIES EAST OF THE TOK CUTOFF IN ZONE 226...OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE SEE SOME NEAR 40 BELOW CELSIUS AIR AT 850 HPA MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS SPELL LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHORT WITH WARMER AIR AND WEAK CHINOOK FLOW BEYOND THAT. SATELLITE...A LITTLE STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 29/0904Z IS CONFIRMED BY THE BARROW OBSERVATION IS MOVING EAST. A FEW MORE PATCHES EARLIER JUST NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AND BARTER ISLAND LOOK TO BE MOVING EAST AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AT 29/0725Z ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JAN 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 140819 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO THE MID 30S BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEITHER FRONT WILL BRING ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WITH IT. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE PRODUCED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE ERIE AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. ADDITIONALLY WINDS HAVE BECOME SWLY OVER WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THAT HAS PUSHED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF THE LAKE TO THE WESTERN CWA. FLURRIES AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CWA... OUT OF THESE CLOUD LAYERS TODAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER AFTER WHICH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. BUFKIT RH PROFILES REVEAL A VERY SHALLOW LAYER WITH NOT MUCH LIFT WITHIN IT. THUS NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT DRY WEATHER. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 NO BIG STORMS IN THE EXTENDED BUT A COUPLE CLIPPERS WILL BRING SOME SNOW FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FIRST CLIPPER ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SFC LOW CENTER PASSES WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT. KEPT IT ALL SNOW FOR NOW BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING. SFC RIDGING SHOULD BRING FAIR AND COLD WEATHER MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015 PATCHY IFR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. ONE AREA WAS SOUTHEAST KJXN...AND TRACKING NORTHWEST. THUS I FEATURED THE IFR THERE FIRST. ELSEWHERE THE FORECAST LOOKS MORE CHALLENGING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS. STILL ENOUGH POTENTIAL THERE TO INCLUDE KBTL IN THE IFR RANGE...WITH KAZO EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. AVIATORS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST CONDITIONS IF FLYING TONIGHT. CLOUDS OVER LAKE MI...WILL LIKELY CLIP KMKG BY 12Z...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL REACH KGRR AND KLAN EXISTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM TUESDAY REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE NSH TO BE COVERED IN ICE. WHAT WAVES EXIST IN OPEN AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1114 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015 WE WILL BE CONTINUING THE ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR SCOTTVILLE AND SMYRNA TODAY. THESE LOCATIONS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT BOTH LOOK TO HAVE STABILIZED. SMYRNA HAS SLIGHTLY FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE SCOTTVILLE HAS LEVELED OFF. THIS MAY BE A SIGNAL THAT SCOTTVILLE MAY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LEVEL AND POSSIBLY BEGIN A SLOW FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL UPWARD CLIMB THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH 40 BY SATURDAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO MELT SOME OF THE ICE BUILD UP. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLDER AIR IS POISED TO MOVE BACK IN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE RECENT STABILITY IN RIVERS IS A GOOD SIGN...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS FOR ANY FLUCTUATION AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...JAM MARINE...93  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 172252 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 152 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN AND INITIALIZED WELL AT 12Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH THE LOW PLUS/MINUS 1MB. NAM HAS HANDLED THE PRECIPITATION WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED TEMPERATURES WELL SO WILL COBBLE TOGETHER SOME BLEND OF THE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS THIS GO AROUND. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE WINDS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE BUT WILL BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 493 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO BE OVER KOLYUCHIN BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS EVENING...THEN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES EAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE SITKA AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT 850 HPA...MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEK IN THE INTERIOR...WILL GO WITH NO AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD COOLING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS MIDWEEK. SURFACE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A 975 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND THIS MORNING AND A 981 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MORPH INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING AT 978 MB...THEN PINBALLS AROUND A LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO A DEVELOPING 999 MB LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO RUBY TO RAINY PASS...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO ALLAKAKET TO KANTISHNA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES EAST SUNDAY EVENING. A 1004 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY...THE OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL OFF AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL END ADVISORIES HERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 201 WHICH WILL HOLD ON TILL LATER THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY STILL GO BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES...BUT NOT FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARCTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT BEST WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT. SNOW TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TONIGHT AND ENDING BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE LOW BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE BERING STRAIT/CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...EXPECT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND IN THE COOL AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...INLAND AREAS COOLER STILL AS THE BUBBLE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT INLAND WITH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DIMINISHING TO TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE HERE...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AND NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER...MAYBE SOME FLURRIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE...BUT NOT GOING TO PUT ANY IN THE FORECAST SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW. SOME COOLING OF TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. SATELLITE...SPORT NPP VIIRS/MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 17/1804Z AND 17/1849Z CONFIRMS THE BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 17/2030Z SHOWS A PATCH OF LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND COLVILLE RIVER AND PRUDHOE BAY THAT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW. OUT WEST THE VAST AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOR LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND FOG. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 152230 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 130 PM AKST THU JAN 15 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES WITH ALL THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NAM WILL AGAIN BE THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THE SHORT TERM FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIE UP THE INTERIOR WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO THE YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THEN NORTHWEST TO A 540 DAM RIDGE OVER SIBERIA. THE RIDGE IS SPLITTING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT AS 503 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND A 507 DAM LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. BY FRIDAY MORNING A TROUGH WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR EAST. THE LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA WILL COMBINE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO A 497 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTHWEST TO THE BERING STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE UP THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE TOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IMPACTING THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MAY ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR. AT 850 HPA...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS. COLDER AIR MOVES TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BERING SEA AND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND 958 MB LOW 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING WITH TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPING UP THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE MAP TODAY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AS THEY RISE AND FALL WITH THE CHANGE OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS AS THE SOUTH WINDS KICK IN THEN FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES WHEN THE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR DIE DOWN. TROUGH UP THE WEST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST AND BROOKS RANGE/ARCTIC COAST. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH TO NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING STRAIT PUSHING THE STRONGER GRADIENT NORTH INTO THE THE CHUKCHI SEA...OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. CHINOOK FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT NOT TOO STRONG...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IT FALLS APART. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING SO TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE...HOWEVER WITH THE WIND COMES BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN LOWER IN OTHERS...SO WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ALL ZONES STARTING THIS EVENING. 20 TO 40 MPH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL TAPER DOWN TO THE AROUND 15 MPH BY SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...SNOW...CHANCE OF RAIN...A MIXED BAG FOR SURE ON THE WEST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...OTHERWISE WEAK COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE IT ALL SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF KIVALINA AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THOSE AREAS. STRONG WINDS AROUND NORTON SOUND SOUTH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WISE. AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE YUKON DELTA...NULATO HILLS...NORTON SOUND...AND THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH SOME PRECIPITATION OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE RANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WEAKEN SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND AROUND DELTA JUNCTION WILL GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR...SOME FLURRIES IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS...FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER WHICH WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALL OVER...NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE IN WINDY AREAS THEY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO NEAR 50 DEGREES...WHILE NORTH OF THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND FREEZING. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. SATELLITE...GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 15/2030Z SHOW A VAST AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...BERING STRAIT...AND MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. IFR AND LIFR PRODUCTS ONLY SHOWING SOME POOR CONDITIONS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 15/1841Z CONFIRMS THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 15/2037 SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING THE ARCTIC COAST...SO NOT MUCH HELP UP THERE RIGHT NOW. LATEST PASSES DO NOT COVER THE BERING SEA SO NO DATA AT THIS TIME OVER THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205- AKZ206. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 142148 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1248 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL IN USING THE GFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAN MAINLY ON THE NAM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. ALOFT...575 DAM RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE WEST COAST FROM OREGON TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TO A 541 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TODAY AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. A COL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AS THE RIDGE STRETCHES OUT AND A 507 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DRIFTS NORTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING. A 506 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY MORNING BECOMING STATIONARY...THEN DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH IN THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE BEING DAMPENED OUT BY THE RIDGE. AT 850 MB...POOL OF ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS AIR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND SLOSHES OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND A 962MB LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT TODAY WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 967MB. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 975MB WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE WINDS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE RANGE AND THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND WEAKENS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...BUT GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE ARCTIC AS LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PUSHES NORTH A LITTLE AND THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PEAKING ON FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING DOWN. THIS WILL BRING SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THOSE DAYS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON TODAY...GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 14/1715Z AND THE SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT AT 14/1523Z NOT INDICATING ANYTHING IMMINENT. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST TONIGHT IF IT STAYS TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...PRIMARILY ZONE 214 AND 215...FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY GET SOME 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO CELSIUS BEFORE COOLING BEGINS. EXPECT WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRAIT TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST MAY BE GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW CREATING VISIBILITY ISSUES BY LATE THURSDAY SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA. ALSO...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIT ALL THE WAY TO POINT HOPE AND POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF KIVALINA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION AS IT IS CHINOOKED OUT. NORTH OF FAIRBANKS SOME AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE VERY PATCHY. WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND IN THE DELTA AREA...EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 191425 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 525 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2015 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND A SECOND WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF SHEMYA. THE 300 MB IS SHOWING A 90 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION EXTENDING SOUTH IN THE WESTERN GULF IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY STRATUS IN THE GULF. THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY WAS PICKING UP THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE EASTERN GULF AT 500 MB IS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST NEAR SITKA. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WITH THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWING UPPER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE OTHER KEY FEATURE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR COLD BAY. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE HAS THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH JUST EAST OF COLD BAY THIS MORNING. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... THE MODELS HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERING THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM/GFS MODELS TRACK THE LOW FARTHER EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE...THE GEM-REG/EC MODELS TRACK THE LOW MORE TOWARDS THE WEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES INLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANGES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS COOK INLET...MAT- SU...AND THE KENAI PEN WITH A MIXTURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE ON TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS...HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY REFORM OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TUE NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AND GIVE RISE TO BRISK OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN BERING AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...RATHER QUIESCENT WEATHER FOR THE BERING SEA WILL BE THE DOMINANT MODE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE BERING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEAR GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY AS A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT MOVES APPROACHES THE AREA. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN MUCH THE SAME. A LARGE COMPLEX STACKED LOW CENTER SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SWING OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND PUSH ONTO THE MAINLAND ON THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW TO HANDLE THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS A LINGERING UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. IT APPEARS HOWEVER THAT A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL SET UP AND CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185. GALE 155 172 173 174 175 176 177. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP LONG TERM...MTL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 161358 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 458 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE TWO CLOSED LOWS WITH THE FIRST OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND THE SECOND LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIBERIA AREA. THERE IS GALE FORCE LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE NEAR DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PIN-WHEELING AROUND THIS LOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY CONTINUE WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS BRINGING IN COOLER AIR THE AREA AND COINCIDES WITH THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL FORM A LOW AT THE SURFACE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTH TO NORTH MERIDIONAL 70 KNOT JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL HELP TO TRACK THE LOW INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE SPREADING INLAND. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS STRATUS AND FOG WITH THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE PICKING UP THE IFR FOG THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN KENAI EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE SURFACE LOW NEAR CHIGNIK TODAY. THE BERING SEA WILL PREDOMINANTLY HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WESTWARD WITH THE LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY BECOMING ELONGATED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS MORE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ELONGATED BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH A LOW FORMING TO THE NORTH OF BETHEL BEFORE TRACKING NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL HAVE THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING OVER THE GULF WITH THE GFS BEING THE OUTLIER WITH KEEPING ONLY ONE LOW IN THE GULF...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DEPICTING TWO LOWS FORMING BY FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE GULF. THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE WERE THE ECMWF AND THE NAM. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOWS FORMING IN THE GULF. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH LEEWARD SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS MISSING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND BRING SNOW TO THAT AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL THEN TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPING AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGE DOWNSLOPED AND DRIER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY...ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS TO FILL IN OVER AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. GENERALLY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST. FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT KEEPING RAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE KEEPING SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT. THIS MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND ELIMINATING THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILLS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY A STOUT NORTHERLY WIND. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ORIGINATING OVER SIBERIA HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE BERING SEA ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL CREATE DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA BY THIS EVENING. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO 32 DEGREES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE NORTH OF 58N AS GALE FORCE WINDS MIX WITH COLDER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY...HELPING TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISH THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BERING. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ONE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT STATE IS THAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE A BIT BETTER THAN THE CURRENT SITUATION OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. LATE THIS WEEKEND THE LAST GASP OF THE CURRENT ALASKA PENINSULA TROUGH WILL BE LINGERING IN THE AREA KEEPING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE MAINLAND. WHILE THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE CURRENT VARIATION A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS IS CAUSING SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE AS TO HOW THE FLOW WILL LOOK OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. HOWEVER...SOME COMMON FEATURES CAN BE SEEN. IT APPEARS AS IF A TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ALONG WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF. THE TAKE AWAY IS A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185 GALE 173 174 179 181 185. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP LONG TERM...MTL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 200159 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 859 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .UPDATE...BKN HIGH CLOUDS CAUSED BY PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HENCE BUMPED UP CLOUD WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THOSE SUSCEPTIBLE ERN AREAS AS WELL. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KENW AND POSSIBLY KUES AFTER BKN HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. && .MARINE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAD LAKE SURFACE TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SO CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SHORE AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION. MAY SEE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHES THROUGH. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS PER 925 MB MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND...UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SOME MODELS SHOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. LIKELY LEFT OVER SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION OR MCS ROLLING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF UPPER LEVER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA...THEN CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO MIDDLE 80S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DURING MAX HEATING TIME OF DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SO MANY AREAS COULD SEE 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA UNTIL AROUND 02Z SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA AS WELL UNTIL AROUND 02Z SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOME CLEARING MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE LIGHT FOG AT KENOSHA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z SUNDAY...POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 121712 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .UPDATE... IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IS OUR MAIN THREAT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC STILL HAS SOUTHERN WI IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THAT IS MAINLY FOR WIND. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS HELPING TO KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE 850MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ VEERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN WI DUE TO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUS SEVERE HAIL IS NO LONGER LIKELY. THE ONLY THING LEFT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM. THE AREA WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. INCLUDING DELLS...MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AREAS AND SOUTH. TWO TO THREE INCHES COULD FALL WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. URBAN AREAS AND CONSTRUCTION AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. WE ARE WEIGHING THE SHORT TERM PRECIP FORECAST HEAVILY ON THE HRRR GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND NEW 12Z WRF MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE MAIN BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN SOUTHERN WI THAN THE RAP. THE 12Z NAM DID NOT CAPTURE THE MORNING PRECIP VERY WELL AND SEEMS LIKE A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND LIGHT ON THE QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SO WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THIS MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS BOTH BULLSEYE THE PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE SHORT NATURE OF THIS EXPECTED EVENING HEAVY RAIN EVENT... WE ARE STILL NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOUTHERN WI MISSED OUT ON THE EARLY MORNING RAIN THAT HIT THE CHICAGO AREA SO WE ARE NOT PRE-CONDITIONED FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS DEFINITELY AN URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING CONCERN...AND WE PLAN TO HANDLE THE RAIN WITH AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. OF COURSE...THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KDLL AND KMSN. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT THE LOWERING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE AREA PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS STILL POSSIBLE. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MRNG MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WI...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND FORCING. HENCE FORCED TO LOWER CONFIDENCE TO LOW FOR TODAY. LEANING TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HAVING ISSUES WITH QPF VERIFICATION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT CARE FOR NAM HANDLING OF UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SO WL USE MORE OF A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SCT-BKN STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN WI...HOWEVER INCREASE IN STRATUS NOTED ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA SINCE 05Z. INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. HENCE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS FOR A TIME THIS MRNG. LOW CLOUDS WL LIKELY THIN LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...BUT BY THEN MORE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. HERE ARE THE FACTORS WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT ON...PWAT VALUES LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY MID-LATE AFTN AS UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER SRN WI. THIS WILL REACH THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT GRB WITH DVN HISTORICAL PWAT VALUES NEARING TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. HENCE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO AFFECT SRN WI FROM MID-AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. DURING THIS TIME...VIGOROUS MID- LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE BORDER SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SRN WI REGION. HENCE ENUF CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES TO CONTINUE HIGH MID-RANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE. THINKING BEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THETA-E RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS SRN CWA AROUND 00Z AND 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALIGNED WITH 850-300MB FLOW FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER THESE FACTORS ONLY AFFECTING SRN WI FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD. IN ADDITION...3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ABOVE 2 INCHES MOST AREAS AND CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOSTLY ABOVE 15KTS. HENCE HELD OFF ON WATCH AND WL MENTION IN HWO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL TRAINING AFFECTING URBAN AREAS. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL CONVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET BRUSHES THE AREA. BULK SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE DAY TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER BUT CAPE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH 1000-2000 J. ABOUT HALF OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS USED IN THE SPC SSEO PAINT OUT AREAS OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND UPDRAFT SPEED DURING THE LATE AFTN WHILE 10M WIND SPEED NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS WEAK SO FOCUS WOULD BE ON HAIL AND WINDS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE BIGGEST FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING IN THE WEST TO THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LINGERING SMALL POPS IN FOR AFTN MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER 850 TEMPS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS HAS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ANY VORT...MAINLY THE SHEAR/ELONGATED VARIETY...ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONLY MODEL TO GENERATE PRECIP WILL GO WI THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND GO WITH THE DRY LOOK. 850 COLD ADVECTION WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 925 TEMPS STILL IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S LOOK REASONABLE. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO TAKE A TUMBLE TO UNDER 10C. THE GFS AND NAM ARE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE COLD ADVECTION. 925 TEMPS DROP AS WELL AND SUPPORT COOL FOR JULY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLOWER ON THE PROGRESS AND THE NAM/GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN 850 TEMP JUST A SMIDGE UNDER 3C AT 12Z ACROSS SC WI. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT A STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING WITHIN THIS VERY COOL AIRMASS. 925 TEMPS ONLY MODIFY TO 10-13C IN THE AFTN HRS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FOR MOST NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. TAKING A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH THE 925 TEMPS...WITH A NOD TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SHOWS HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE THOUGH SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL CHANCE OR SPRINKLES ESP IN ERN AND NE CWA AS WE GET CLOSER BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE DRY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM FAIRLY BENIGN NW FLOW. CHILLY TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THE LIGHT...SPOTTY AND RANDOM NATURE OF QPF BEING THROWN AROUND BY THE MODELS WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ANY WAVES QUITE WEAK. SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY POPS AT THIS POINT. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRATUS LOWERING TO MVFR WEST OF MADISON LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST SO FOR NOW WL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS RISING TO VFR LATER THIS MRNG. HIGH HUMIDITY AND DEWPTS RETURNING TODAY HELPING TO FUEL SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. MOST FAVORABLE TIMES FOR CONVECTION WL BE LISTED IN TAFS. MARINE...PATCHY OVERNIGHT CLEARING HAS ALLOWED THE MODIS IMAGER TO CATCH SOME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHEBOYGAN. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO DEVELOP. WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING MORE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ATTM DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 120831 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MRNG MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WI...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND FORCING. HENCE FORCED TO LOWER CONFIDENCE TO LOW FOR TODAY. LEANING TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HAVING ISSUES WITH QPF VERIFICATION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT CARE FOR NAM HANDLING OF UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SO WL USE MORE OF A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SCT-BKN STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN WI...HOWEVER INCREASE IN STRATUS NOTED ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA SINCE 05Z. INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. HENCE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS FOR A TIME THIS MRNG. LOW CLOUDS WL LIKELY THIN LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...BUT BY THEN MORE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. HERE ARE THE FACTORS WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT ON...PWAT VALUES LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY MID-LATE AFTN AS UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER SRN WI. THIS WILL REACH THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT GRB WITH DVN HISTORICAL PWAT VALUES NEARING TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. HENCE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO AFFECT SRN WI FROM MID-AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. DURING THIS TIME...VIGOROUS MID- LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE BORDER SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SRN WI REGION. HENCE ENUF CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES TO CONTINUE HIGH MID-RANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE. THINKING BEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THETA-E RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS SRN CWA AROUND 00Z AND 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALIGNED WITH 850-300MB FLOW FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER THESE FACTORS ONLY AFFECTING SRN WI FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD. IN ADDITION...3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ABOVE 2 INCHES MOST AREAS AND CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOSTLY ABOVE 15KTS. HENCE HELD OFF ON WATCH AND WL MENTION IN HWO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL TRAINING AFFECTING URBAN AREAS. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL CONVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET BRUSHES THE AREA. BULK SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE DAY TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER BUT CAPE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH 1000-2000 J. ABOUT HALF OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS USED IN THE SPC SSEO PAINT OUT AREAS OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND UPDRAFT SPEED DURING THE LATE AFTN WHILE 10M WIND SPEED NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS WEAK SO FOCUS WOULD BE ON HAIL AND WINDS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE BIGGEST FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING IN THE WEST TO THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LINGERING SMALL POPS IN FOR AFTN MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER 850 TEMPS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS HAS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ANY VORT...MAINLY THE SHEAR/ELONGATED VARIETY...ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONLY MODEL TO GENERATE PRECIP WILL GO WI THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND GO WITH THE DRY LOOK. 850 COLD ADVECTION WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 925 TEMPS STILL IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S LOOK REASONABLE. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO TAKE A TUMBLE TO UNDER 10C. THE GFS AND NAM ARE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE COLD ADVECTION. 925 TEMPS DROP AS WELL AND SUPPORT COOL FOR JULY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLOWER ON THE PROGRESS AND THE NAM/GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN 850 TEMP JUST A SMIDGE UNDER 3C AT 12Z ACROSS SC WI. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT A STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING WITHIN THIS VERY COOL AIRMASS. 925 TEMPS ONLY MODIFY TO 10-13C IN THE AFTN HRS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FOR MOST NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. TAKING A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH THE 925 TEMPS...WITH A NOD TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SHOWS HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. .WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE THOUGH SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL CHANCE OR SPRINKLES ESP IN ERN AND NE CWA AS WE GET CLOSER BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE DRY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM FAIRLY BENIGN NW FLOW. CHILLY TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THE LIGHT...SPOTTY AND RANDOM NATURE OF QPF BEING THROWN AROUND BY THE MODELS WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ANY WAVES QUITE WEAK. SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY POPS AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRATUS LOWERING TO MVFR WEST OF MADISON LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST SO FOR NOW WL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS RISING TO VFR LATER THIS MRNG. HIGH HUMIDITY AND DEWPTS RETURNING TODAY HELPING TO FUEL SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. MOST FAVORABLE TIMES FOR CONVECTION WL BE LISTED IN TAFS. && .MARINE...PATCHY OVERNIGHT CLEARING HAS ALLOWED THE MODIS IMAGER TO CATCH SOME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHEBOYGAN. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO DEVELOP. WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING MORE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ATTM DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 050140 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 940 PM AST FRI JUL 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MON THEN WEAKEN AS TUTT BECOMES THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT WITH SAL ESTABLISHING THEREAFTER. && .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z AS WAVE APPROACHES. WAVE IS MOVING RATHER FAST AT 25 KT AND IS SURROUNDED BY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY SAL AIR. DESPITE THAT...HI-RES WRF NMM AND WRF-ARW DEVELOP STRONG CONVECTION OVER WRN PR SAT AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO PEAK AROUND 06Z SUN WELL PAST THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM SO NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT. BELIEVE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO WAVES ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AND OF SHORT-DURATION. DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SUN WITH SKIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY HAZY AS SAL ESTABLISHES. SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED MON AND TUE WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY BOTH DAYS. NEXT WAVE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH. OVERALL...HOT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO REACH LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS AROUND 06Z SAT AND USVI TERMINALS BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD WWD ACROSS PR THEREAFTER. T-STORMS EXPECTED AT TJMZ WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME LIGHT HAZE SAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY HAZY SUN AND ESPECIALLY MON. COULD SEE MARGINAL MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY. && .MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER MON. SEAS 4-6 FT THROUGH MON DIMINISHING 3-FT AFTER THAT. && .FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT RAINFALL SATURDAY WITH WAVE PASSAGE BUT THE RAIN WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIKELY NOT RESULT IN ANY INCREASE IN FUEL MOISTURE. SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG EVENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY MON AND TUE AS HOT AND VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER EPISODE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES IN. THE MODIS AQUA RGB AND THE CIRA LPW PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS TRAILING WAVE IS RATHER WARM AND DRY AND THE MORE EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE ECWMF IS MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. SO...A VERY SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 80 89 80 89 / 50 50 50 40 STT 80 89 80 90 / 50 50 50 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 05/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 200859 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 359 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014 .SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE 500 MB TROFFING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL LINGER THERE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONCENTRATED JUST WEST OF DEEP SOUTH TX AS 500 MB RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX AND THE TX COASTLINE. DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY WILL ALSO LIKELY HELP ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL CONV OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS IS NOT A GREAT SET UP FOR RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER ISOLD CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY TODAY DUE TO THE FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE 500 MB TROFFING. THE NAM GUIDANCE DOES NOT REFLECT ANY DECENT POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A LITTLE WETTER SCENARIO FOR TODAY AND WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF ISOLD CONV TODAY. FOR TEMPS TODAY WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER FOR HIGHS AS WITH THE CONV FIRING TO OUR WEST LATER TODAY EXPECT PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLD COVER TO SPREAD OVER THE RGV WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WILL GO A LITTLE WARMER HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AS THE 500 MB TROFFING PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM US AND ALLOWS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD A LITTLE FURTHER WEST INCREASING THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES A BIT. WILL STILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MINS TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS HERE. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND HOT WITH OVERALL COLUMN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE AS WELL. NOTABLE MODEL DISCREPANCY THOUGH BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF AND THEN STALLING. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER REINFORCED WHEN ANOTHER WAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES THE MAIN WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND A SFC SHEAR ZONE SETS UP AND PREVENTS A SURGE OF CARRIBEAN SOURCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES FROM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH AND DOES NOT PROVIDE IT WITH A REINFORCING SURGE...PLACING THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS MORE OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THIS ALLOWS A SURGE OF DEEP EASTERLIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE CARRIBEAN AND ARE VISIBLE ON THE 20.01 ASCAT PASS OF THAT AREA...TO PUMP DEEP AND RICH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE ECMWF INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF ACCORDINGLY. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THIS EVOLVES INTO A DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE GFS PRODUCES SHARP TROUGHING OVER LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WITH A 594 DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO OUR WEST AND A WEAKER BERMUDA HIGH OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. THE ECMWF SLOWLY CLOSES OFF RIDGING OVER FLORIDA EMBEDDED IN A MUCH LARGER SCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH RIDGING OVER THE SONORAN DESERT REGION OF MEXICO AND ARIZONA AND PERSISTENT RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS OVER TEXAS. THE ECMWF PATTERN WOULD BRING A MUCH WETTER/SHOWERY REGIME TO THE AREA WITH MORE MODERATED TEMPERATURES WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE A CONTINUATION OF THE COPY PASTE HOT AND BREEZY WEATHER OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHERE THE ECMWFS WETTER PICTURE HAS ONLY BEGUN DEVELOPING IN THE LAST 2 TO 4 RUNS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EMERGING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. FOR THE FORECAST BASED IT AROUND A SCENARIO WHERE THE GULF TROUGHINESS IS NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED...BUT THE DEEP 30 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 850/700MB LAYER DO NOT GET QUITE AS CARRIED AWAY EITHER. THE WAVES IN QUESTION ARE CLEARLY PRETTY PRONOUNCED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NOT ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH PRECIP AT THE MOMENT AND AMSU/SSMI AND MODIS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY APPEAR TO SUGGEST THERE IS NOT AS MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THE ECMWF INITIALIZED. EVEN IF THE SYNOPTIC ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY THE 40 AND 50 PCT POPS PRESENTED BY ECX MOS APPEAR FAR TOO HIGH AND THUNDER WOULD BE DIFFICULT/IMPOSSIBLE IN A ZONE WITH LAPSE RATES AS POOR AS SHOULD BE IN PLACE. SO PAINTED LOW GRADE POPS/SHOWERS STARTING IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE MORE FAVORED SEABREEZE ZONES BY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HUGGED BACK TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER IN LINE WITH A DRIER OVERALL ENVIRONMENT BUT MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY THE FACT THE WIND DIRECTION IS MORE EASTERLY AND ONSHORE. SPEEDS ARE ALSO MORE MODERATE AND A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO SET UP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER IS UP FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 4 OR 5 DAYS. /68-JGG/ && .MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY AND MODERATE S-SE SURFACE FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MARINE CONDITIONS MAY PUSH UP CLOSE TO SCEC/POSSIBLY BORDERLINE SCA LEVELS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. BUT NO STRONG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SUNDAY MAY APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION OR MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE BUT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 92 80 / 20 10 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 93 78 94 78 / 20 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 96 77 97 77 / 20 10 10 10 MCALLEN 98 78 99 79 / 20 20 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 100 77 / 20 20 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 82 / 20 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 60/68/CAMPBELL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 130339 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 839 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION...JUST MADE AN UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE HEADLINES. IN SUMMARY, EXPIRED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE EAST SIDE, CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE, AND EXTENDED THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR AREAS DOWNWIND (EAST) OF SUMMER LAKE UNTIL 11 PM. THE FROST/FREEZE AND MARINE HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW AND BEYOND WERE NOT CHANGED. IT GOT PRETTY WINDY WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY, AT LEAST IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. WE RECEIVED A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES. WHILE THE DROUGHT MAY HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE STABILITY OF THESE TREES, IT WAS PRETTY WINDY, NONETHELESS, AS EVIDENCED BY A PEAK GUST OF 36 MPH AT THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. IT WAS WINDY AND ALSO VERY DRY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TODAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ALMOST ALL DAY TODAY IN SOME AREAS, SUCH AS MODOC COUNTY. WHILE HUMIDITIES HAVE CREPT UP ENOUGH TO GET US OUT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA, IT IS STILL QUITE WINDY IN SPOTS EVEN AT THIS HOUR. FOR EXAMPLE, ENHANCED VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY STILL CLEARLY SHOWS BLOWING DUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO HIGHWAY 395 AND BEYOND. HAVEN'T HAD ANY REPORTS OF IMPACTS, BUT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE, SO THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (UNTIL 11 PM). AFTER THAT, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ENOUGH FOR DUST TO SETTLE DOWN. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY AND WIND GRIDS, BUT THOSE EDITS WERE MINOR. NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. -WRIGHT && .AVIATION...BASED ON 13/00Z TAF ISSUANCE... GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SETTLE DOWN FOR THE MOST PART BY LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN LEADING TO PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT THAT CLOUDS WILL GET TO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TO INCLUDE MOST OF JACKSON COUNTY BY SUNRISE, BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN VFR IN THE MEDFORD AREA. MVFR IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LIGHTER. IT WILL STILL BE A BIT GUSTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST SIDE. BTL && .MARINE...UPDATED UPDATED 12/8PM PDT... SOUTH WINDS WILL LINGER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THEN WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LOW END, BUT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WHERE SOME WARNING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITH SEAS. BTL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014/ DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AT MOST LOCATIONS. ITS BECOMING WINDY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT THIS HOUR...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING AT RFWMFR CONTINUES FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR RAINFALL...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH TRANSITS THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY...CREEPING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE CASCADES. A HOST OF FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT NPWMFR. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT...WITH A HINT OF JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST POPULATION CENTERS LIKE KLAMATH FALLS AND ALTURAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT PLENTY OF MORE RURAL AREAS WILL DIP WELL BELOW FREEZING. ON MONDAY MODELS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS SUGGESTS RIDGING...THE ECMWF DEEP TROUGHING JUST TO OUR EAST...AND THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. WE ARE FAVORING THE EC SOLUTION BASED ON EXPECTED UPSTREAM BLOCKING...AND THE IDEA THAT THE GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE...FOLLOWING THE THINKING OF MY COLLEAGUE ON LAST NIGHT'S SHIFT. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH BASICALLY MEANS KEEPING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...BOTH MODELS AGREE ON A WARMUP. FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE...KLAMATH AND MODOC COUNTIES INDICATE GUSTY WINDS OF OVER 20 MPH...WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT. THEE CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING FROM A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRODUCING 700 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY...THESE SHOULD EASILY MIX TOT HE SURFACE...AND THIS HAS PROMPTED THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH CALMER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN DRY. THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORECAST IS MUCH TOO LOW FOR ANY DETAILS ON PROBABILITIES...TIMING...OR LOCATION...BUT USERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST TERM. -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030. BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ031. FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ031. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ031. FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029. CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ084. FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370. HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ356-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376. $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 111327 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 527 AM AKDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING TO THE DISTANT SOUTH. NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN CAUSING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. WHAT IT IS CAUSING IS A GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TENDS TO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR US SO HAVE NO PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A MARINE LAYER OVER THE GULF BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN IT EVIDENT WITH THE SPORT MODIS NIGHT BAND AS WELL AS 3.9 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHIPS IN THE GULF UNDER THIS DECK HAVE REPORTED CEILINGS OF AROUND 2500FT AND COASTAL LAND AREAS HAVE REPORTED CLOUDS AS LOW AS 1000FT. CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WERE AROUND LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON STRATIFIED OVERNIGHT MAKING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT BREAKS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH BEST CLEARING IN THE LEE OF THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY DEVELOP AGAIN HOWEVER MODEL BASED CAPE IS FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY...DESPITE BETTER HEATING AT THE SURFACE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYER AS A WHOLE. HAVE SET HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT AROUND 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE MID 60S FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN AREA WITH HYDER PEAKING AT 70F. IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND LONGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET QUITE AS WARM...OR ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLIER THEN SOME INLAND AREAS SUCH AS THE MENDENHALL VALLEY COULD GET A COULD GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND REACH THE MID 60S. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT HOW STRONG OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BASED ON EXPECTED SUNSHINE/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE...UNLIKE WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. PREFERRED THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR THEIR GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE INHERITED PRESSURE FORECAST. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS BASED ON LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS AND STREAM LINES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE OVERALL...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM...EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA PERSISTS AND KEEPS A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY A DEVELOPING WAVE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PAST KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ARC OUT TO THE OUTER COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN CURVING WEST QUICKLY AROUND 50N AND RUNNING BACK TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SO WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE INITIAL BATCH OF MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND LOOK TO BE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL RIGHT NOW OF 25 TO 30 KT. MAIN BURST OF RAIN SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN ALONG THE OUTSIDE COASTAL AREA OF THE PANHANDLE. THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING ISSUES WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HEADING TOWARDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA - SO WILL BE CONTINUING THE TREND OF USING WPC GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TIME STAGES OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO INTO SATURDAY WITH THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN LOWER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012. && $$ FERRIN/BEZENEK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 301014 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 614 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH ON TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. AN OLD COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY...WHILE FRESHER AIR MASS FILTERS FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE AT H50 WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE MS VALLEY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX SINKS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA...INTO NORTHERN WV BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND PRODUCE SOME PCPN SATURDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HAVE DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR EAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE EAST THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO SW VIRGINIA COUNTIES TO YIELD SHOWER OR STORM. ALSO HAVE A WEAK 500MB RIPPLE CROSSING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY DICKENSON COUNTY VA. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGH AND LOWS. BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS AND BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY WENT WITH WPC THINKING. HOWEVER...CHANGES WERE MADE TO GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL MID-LEVEL FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIURNAL NATURE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT GO FAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WPC TEMPS LOOK GOOD...BUT MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODIS 1KM SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV OVERNIGHT. SFC OBS SHOWS IFR FOG AT MOST PLACES...IMPROVING AT BKW TO MVFR BY 12Z. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FILTERS FROM THE NORTH TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-15Z AREA WIDE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING OVER PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT LESS FOG COVERAGE AND DURATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY OVER RIVER VALLEYS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 220800 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 400 AM AST THU MAY 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 80W WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE WRN CARIB DURING THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TO THE ERN CARIB BY MID NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE AT LOW TO MID LEVELS. && .DISCUSSION...AMPLIFLYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WRN CARIB WILL LEAD TO HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ERN CARIB THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WWD FROM THE TROP ATLC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN. AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST IS ALSO OF SAHARAN ORIGIN (SAL) BUT ANIMATION OF VIS IMAGERY FROM YDAY AND MODIS AEROSOL PRODUCTS SHOW THIS AIR MASS IS NOT ACCOMPANIED WITH SAHARAN DUST JUST DRY AND STABLE. JET CIRRUS ON THE EAST SIDE OF WRN CARIB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE NE CARIB TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CIRRUS MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY GIVE A FALSE SENSE OF HAZE OR DUST IN THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WRN CARIB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD LEADING TO MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT IT APPEARS AIR MASS OF SAHARAN ORIGIN WILL NOT ALLOW ANY SIG MOISTENING FOR ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. AFT 22/16Z...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ. EXPECT SCT-BKN LOW-MID LVL CLD LYRS FL020-120...WITH BKN-OVC HIGH LVL. LOW LEVEL WNDS FM SE 10-15 KNOTS BCMG FL SW AND INCR W/HT ABV TO MAX OF AROUND 75 KTS NR FL450. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT. NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER...AS WINDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT. FUELS ON THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY VIEQUES REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING BASED ON A TERRA MODIS NDVI IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY AND KBDI INDICES AND COULD SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR RFW APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE CIRRUS/UPPER LEVEL MOIST PLUME THAT COULD BLOCK SOLAR RADIATION SUBSTANTIALLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 91 77 91 78 / 20 20 20 0 STT 82 78 82 78 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 040830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MOST OF UPSTREAM LIGHT DBZ OVER SRN ND/NRN SD NOT REACHING GROUND...HOWEVER A FEW -SHRA WITH DBZ EXCEEDING 35 LIKELY REACHING SFC. WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS SRN MN TOWARD SRN WI THIS MRNG. SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND FEED OF DRIER AIR OVER SRN WI EXPECTED TO DRY UP MOST OF THESE SHRA AS THEY PROGRESS INTO SRN WI. HENCE WL DROP POPS TO SCHC WITH A FEW SPRINKLES LIKELY IN THE SW CWA LATER THIS MRNG. DESPITE WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TODAY...SFC DEWPTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN NORTHEAST AT THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AFTER 16Z WHICH WILL HALT DIURNAL TEMP RISE. MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY MEASURED LAKE MI WATER TEMP REMAINING IN THE LOW 40S. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE NORHERN GTLAKES. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. BOTH GFS AND NAM 300 THETA SURFACE SHOWS INCREASING LATE NIGHT ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10MB. ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ADDING SMALL POPS TO MOST AREAS LATER TONIGHT. .SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. KEPT LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...WITH PASSING SHEARED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...SO COULD END UP BEING SPRINKLES. NAM/ECMWF MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND. PATTERN SHIFT THEN OCCURS...AS 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE AREA. FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AT 850 MB...AND RESULT IN INCREASING POPS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN DIFFER AFTERWARDS. THEY PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE FOCUSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NORTHWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WELL INLAND...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z THURSDAY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA OR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE AREA. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS WELL. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...AS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WARM TEMPERATURES MAY CRACK 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. SURFACE LOW THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...AND FRIDAY ON THE GFS. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN ON GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MEAN LAYER CAPES THURSDAY. CIPS ANALOGS AND GFS CWASP PRODUCT SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIMING OF FRONT...IF CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH...AND WHERE THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM GOES. SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DO NOT SEEM TO PAN OUT UNLESS THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THUS...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MAY BE A FEW -SHRA IN THE AREA AFT 06Z/MON. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. && .MARINE... WL LIKELY BE A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN ZONES BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS REMAINING IN NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS EXPECTED...WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY THIS MRNG BUT ANY SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AFTER 16Z AND THEN REMAIN E TO NE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES TO THE NORTH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021136 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 336 AM AKDT FRI MAY 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW RUNS. MODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90 HOURS BEFORE THEY REALLY DIVERGE. GFS IS OVERDOING THE QPF NUMBERS AS USUAL SO WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. WILL NUDGE TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD AREA OF RIDGING AROUND A 576 DAM HIGH OVER FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER DOT LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 569 DAM...THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS THE CENTER DROPS SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS 568 DAM. A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE TO OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT EXTEND SOUTH FROM A 525 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...THE LOW DEEPENS TO 511 DAM AS IT MOVES INTO THE ARCTIC WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER BARROW TO BUCKLAND TO CAPE ROMANZOF BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES TO LIE FROM OVER DEADHORSE TO GALENA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TODAY WILL BE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AT AROUND 6 CELSIUS. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW CELSIUS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES NOT SO COLD BUT EXPECT THEM TO FALL AS THE ZERO CELSIUS ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM KOMAKUK BEACH CANADA TO FAIRBANKS TO KING SALMON. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING ENHANCING CLOUDS AND MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN PUSH TO THE WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...AND TANANA VALLEY WILL BOTTOM OUT TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES THEM UP A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ARCTIC COAST...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0724Z SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT SEVERAL LEVELS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA. CEILING WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES FOR A CHANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THEN DIP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0724Z SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. CLOUDY WITH SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND POINT HOPE...AND VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST...INLAND AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH ALL THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0724Z SHOWS NICE BIG AREA OF CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF FORT YUKON AND IN THE 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AS THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND IS ENHANCED BY A WEAK PULSE THAT MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. && .FIRE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE INTERIOR ZONES TODAY...THOUGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL. EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT TODAY WITH LESS WIND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY...ICE STARTED MOVING AT EAGLE LATE LAST NIGHT SO BREAKUP ON THE YUKON HAS BEGUN. STILL NO MOVEMENT AT DAWSON CANADA. REMAINDER OF RIVERS CONTINUE SLOW BREAKUP THOUGH THAT COULD CHANGE AS FREEZING LEVELS IN THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FEET. REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AND THE ICE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE IN PLACE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ227. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB MAY 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 221314 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 514 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE FROM A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DROPPING SW OUT OF THE YUKON WHILE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH ARE FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE LIFTING NW OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM MODIS AND VIIRS REVEAL SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND YAKUTAT. THE FOG AROUND PRINCE OF WALES HAS PROVED TO BE DENSE IN SOME PLACES AS HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK BOTH HAVE HAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. AS SUCH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK AREAS UNTIL 8 AM WHEN THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. THE WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER NICE FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH INTO THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S FOR MOST PLACES. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH SOME HIGHER WINDS FROM SEA BREEZES COULD CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA STARTS TO MOVE IN. INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO START TO BECOME A THREAT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT. IT WILL NOT QUITE GET TO YAKUTAT BY LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OBSERVED THE CLOSER TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS YOU ARE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY START CLEARING AND DRYING OUT LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION AGAIN THERE. AS SUCH I HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE WERE SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR THE INCOMING TROUGH. PRIMARILY WENT WITH THE NAM AND SOME ECMWF FOR OVERALL UPDATES AS BOTH LOOKED TO HAVE MORE OF THE CURRENT DETAILS. OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR. && .LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF A COMPACT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WED MORNING THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MODEST ASCENT/MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A COLD MIDLEVEL AIRMASS /-30 TO -35C AT H5/ WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED ON THU. MEANWHILE...A DRY MIDLEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE EXITS N. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMPTED A BUMP UP IN THU DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SRN AREAS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE UPPER WAVES IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE N INTO THE CWA FRI AND SAT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. NUDGED FRI HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THOSE EXPECTED ON THU DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE IS FORECAST FRI THROUGH TUE. THUS...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S ARE MAINTAINED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE GULF AND NERN PAC BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS LARGE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES PINWHEELING NWD FROM THE TROUGH INTO SE AK. FOR THIS REASON...WPC GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE ECMWF WAS PRIMARILY USED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051. && $$ EAL/GARNER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KLCH 210819 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014 .DISCUSSION... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS. NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER. THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS INCREASING. TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 81 62 81 63 / 10 20 20 10 KBPT 80 63 81 63 / 10 20 20 10 KAEX 83 60 81 60 / 10 30 30 10 KLFT 81 61 81 63 / 10 20 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...06  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 061127 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 427 AM PDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W...BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS WARMING THE AIRMASS ALOFT AND GENERATING GREATER LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THE RESULT IS DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY ALONG THE SAN MATEO COUNTY COAST. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK. BUT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE VEERS MORE TO THE NORTH AND BEGINS TO ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN...EVEN AT THE OCEAN. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE NORTH. BY MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND ON TUESDAY WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT CLOSE TO 18 DEG C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE A MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH. COASTAL TEMPS LIKELY WON'T WARM ANY FURTHER ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK...RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT ALL THAT LIKELY (SEE RECORD HIGHS IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL TRIGGER A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND A COOLING TREND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS...WITH COOLER AIR THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND BY THURSDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS MOISTURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THUS...THERE APPEARS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...MAJOR OVERHAUL TO FORECAST PACKAGE. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. LATEST SPORT MODIS/VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRATUS REMAINS OFF THE COAST WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT INLAND. LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS STRATUS OUT OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. VFR TONIGHT AS WELL. CONF IS MED-HIGH. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. GUSTY ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. && .MARINE AND BEACH...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LONG PERIOD SWELL IS TAKING ITS TIME ARRIVING ON THE CENTRAL COAST. HOWEVER...LATEST BUOY REPORTS TO THE N ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE 17-18 SECOND PERIOD. ONCE THE LONGER PERIOD MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING...IT WILL NOT BE LARGE BUT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND CAPABLE OF WASHING PEOPLE FROM BEACHES AND FISHERMEN FROM ROCKS AND JETTIES IN THE FORM OF SNEAKER WAVES. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. && .CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 6TH THROUGH 8TH. AT FIRST GLANCE IT APPEARS THAT 1989 FEATURED A MULTI-DAY HEAT SPELL. SF BAY AREA .LOCATION................APRIL 6TH APRIL 7TH APRIL 8TH KENTFIELD...............94/1924 91/1989 91/1989 SAN RAFAEL..............87/1989 88/1989 91/1989 NAPA....................91/1939 89/1989 91/1989 SAN FRANCISCO...........91/1989 92/1989 94/1989 SFO AIRPORT.............89/1989 89/1989 92/1989 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......86/1989 87/1989 88/1989 RICHMOND................89/1989 90/1989 93/1989 LIVERMORE...............89/1939 89/1989 90/1989 SAN JOSE................93/1989 93/1989 94/1989 GILROY..................91/1989 94/1989 96/1989 MONTEREY BAY AREA .LOCATION...............APRIL 6TH APRIL 7TH APRIL 8TH MONTEREY...............90/1989 92/1989 92/1989 SANTA CRUZ.............93/1989 94/1989 90/1989 SALINAS................97/1989 98/1989 78/1980 SALINAS AIRPORT........97/1989 98/1989 95/1989 KING CITY..............98/1989 98/1989 100/1989 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: MM MARINE: MM CLIMATE: RWW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 060820 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS THRU TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG TODAY YET TO COMPLETELY INHIBIT AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS FOR NW PR WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A T-STORM THERE. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY MON-WED LEADING TO RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS BECOMING ALMOST NIL. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRI BUT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS RIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG MOISTURE RECOVERY UNTIL NEXT SUN APR 13. SO A VERY DRY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS BLO FL100 WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ISOLD-SCT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH FEW EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS DURG PRD FM 06/8Z-06/12Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR MAINLY OVR ERN PR FM 06/08Z-06/12Z. BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS AT LOCAL TAF SITES MAINLY TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 17Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONSOF PUERTO RICO...THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TJMZ THROUGH 22Z. && .MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THRU TUE THEN DIMINISHING. NNE SWELLS WILL PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY THROUGH TUE IN AREAS THAT HAD SOME RAIN LAST WEEK. BOTH CAMP SANTIAGO AND CABO ROJO MISSED MOST OF THE RAIN WITH ONLY 0.20 AND 0.10 INCHES FALLING THERE RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST KBDI AT CABO ROJO REMAINS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHILE AT CAMP SANTIAGO IS AN ALL TIME HIGH USING A CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 2004. VIEQUES RAWS LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND HAS HAD 1.40 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES MISSED ALMOST ALL THE RAIN. COTTON VALLEY RAWS IN ST. CROIX HAS HAD 1.28 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL WHILE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT HAS HAD 1.77 INCHES. HOWEVER...LONG TERM (30-DAY) DEFICITS INDICATE BOTH THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX ARE HAVING SIG RAINFALL DEFICITS. IN ADDITION...RECENT VIIRS TRUE COLOR AND MODIS NDVI IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO ISLANDS REMAIN BROWN WITH HIGH FUEL LOADING SUGGESTING FUELS ARE READY FOR FIRE WITH HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING. BASED ON LATEST GFS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE WITH FIRE WX CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT WED AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 85 76 87 75 / 10 10 10 0 STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 0 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIEQUES-SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND. VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ 10/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 041106 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 306 AM AKDT FRI APR 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST AND MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...COL OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. 506 DAM LOW 200NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE TO 250NM NORTH OF BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY...THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 497 DAM LOW NEAR 77N 170E. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING MOVING EAST TO LIE FROM OVER BARROW TO OVER MARSHALL AND SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM OVER BARTER ISLAND TO OVER MCGRATH AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE WEST COAST TO OVER THE INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING AND STALL AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WILL PERSIST AS THE LONGWAVE REORIENTS NORTH SOUTH OVER THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT AND ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR A COUPLE DAYS ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EACH AREA. SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH AS WELL AS COLD AIR DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST. 984MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 989MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. THE LEESIDE LOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A 995MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TANANA FLATS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION. THIS WILL ENHANCE OVERRUNNING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY EXITING THE STATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH OVER EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA MOVES WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST. ARCTIC...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0839Z SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IS PATCHY. WEAK FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR BARROW TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE SMALL SO EXPECT JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW FOR AREAS FROM BARROW EAST TO DEADHORSE TODAY. AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEADHORSE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE LIFE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH LOW REACHING 15 TO 25 BELOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW STAYING BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND BARTER ISLAND WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH FLURRIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0839Z SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A GOOD SIZED PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. MOST OBSERVATIONS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT 0900Z. MAINLY CLEAR FROM NORTON SOUND NORTH ON THE COAST AND NORTH OF ANVIK OVER THE INTERIOR AT 0900Z. FOR AREAS EAST OF NOME LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND FLURRIES FROM SHAKTOOLIK SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. CLOD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TODAY FROM NORTON SOUND NORTH WILL BEGIN PUSHING TEMPERATURES DOWN RESULTING IN THOSE AREAS BEING AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. QPF VALUES WITH THE SNOW ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO ONLY EXPECT UP TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. INTERIOR...LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND LOW PUSHING TO THE NORTH GULF WILL HELP SPREAD CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SPREADING INTO MINCHUMINA AND WESTERN DENALI PARK TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LEESIDE TROUGH. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH. 995MB LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY EVENING WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE LESS THAN 2 INCHES...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE THE WHITE AND RAY MOUNTAINS THAT COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY BUT NOT UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THEY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245. && $$ SDB APR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 031130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 330 AM AKDT THU APR 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST AND MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GFS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY SO WILL AGAIN CLEAN ALL OF IT OUT OF THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE GETTING BETTER...NOT SURE IF IT IS TIED TO THE APRIL CHANGE TO A WARM SEASON FORMULA OR JUST THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...COL OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 511 DAM LOW OVER74N 175W WILL MOVE OVER BARROW BY FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST TO EXTEND FROM OVER NUIQSUT SOUTHWEST TO OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 517 DAM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST TO 300NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY...SLIGHT WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 980MB LOW IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA DEVELOPS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. LOW MOVES TO JUST NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 985 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN MOVES SOUTH. 993MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND NULATO HILLS TODAY AND STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO BE SNOW AT THIS TIME. ARCTIC...SOME CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODIS 11UM BT AT 0755Z SHOWS THE LARGE LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT WAS THERE YESTERDAY IS HANGING ON. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO CHANGE OVER THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW SITES DID SHOW IT CLEARING FOR A SHORT PERIOD TODAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MAINLAND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH A LITTLE SO EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE PLAINS AREAS. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME BREAKS BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF BARROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0755Z SHOWS SOME CIRRUS STREAKING OVER THE AREA OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH TROUGH AND FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH SO INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES BY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTON SOUND NORTH TODAY. WINDS ON THE MAINLAND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND NOME EAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTERIOR...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. NO CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SOME COLD AIR PUSHES IN AS THE FRONT PASSES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB APR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 030925 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 425 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014 OUR NEXT MAJOR SPRING STORM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WITHIN...ONE OVER MONTANA AND ANOTHER IN THE COLORADO/UTAH AREA. A JET IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH A 100KT STREAK ACROSS ARIZONA. AT LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A LARGE MCS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND ON EAST FROM THERE. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALREADY PRODUCING SNOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTH ACROSS THESE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014 THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SWEEP EAST OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TAKES OVER SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHERN ONE WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY...TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DEVELOP A VERY NICE AREA OF SNOW FROM NEBRASKA NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SLOWLY ROTATING FROM A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST BAND TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION BEFORE SWEEPING EAST ON FRIDAY...A FAIRLY CLASSIC DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW PATTERN. ON TOP OF IT ALL...AM EXPECTING A NICE DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A GOOD 24-36 HOURS OF SNOW...WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THAT HEAVY SNOW. FOR NOW AM LOOKING AT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT TO MENTION FRIDAY. THE CURRENT AREA OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY IN THE BAND OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB...GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOSER TO 850MB TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING STRONGLY TODAY...WE WILL HAVE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PRODUCING INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH THE FETCH ACROSS OPEN WATER AS CAN BE SEEN IN YESTERDAYS MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FARTHER NORTHWEST...WITH AN ADVISORY NORTHWEST OF THAT. ALL BUT KOOCHICHING COUNTY IS IN A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014 STORM WILL PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT TIMING. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN..ALTHOUGH NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF IS FASTER. THIS MOVEMENT WILL GRADUALLY END THE SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLD AIR FROM CANADA BUT 8H TEMPS DOWN TO -10C. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL GIVE A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COOL SATURDAY. THE COOL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SFC RIDGE BEHIND THE STORM DRIFTS EAST AND A QUICK CANADIAN SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO THE NORTH...BUT SETTING UP SOME GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE A CHANCE OF SOME MORE FROM A SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ON MONDAY. BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. ANOTHER CANADIAN LOW WILL AFFECT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014 VFR UNTIL THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...THEN CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE SNOW SPREADS INTO BRD AND HYR AROUND 18Z. SNOW REACHES DLH BY 21Z...HIB BY 22Z AND INL BY 01Z/04. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH ISOLD LIFR PRIMARILY AT DLH/BRD/HYR. DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BANDS AND LOCATION AND NOT LISTED IN THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF -SNPL AT HYR BEGINNING AT 01Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 32 24 33 18 / 90 100 100 10 INL 37 21 37 14 / 30 60 40 0 BRD 35 24 38 19 / 100 100 80 0 HYR 37 27 34 18 / 100 100 100 40 ASX 35 26 33 18 / 90 100 100 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ012-019>021-033>038. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-018-025-026. WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ140>143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LE SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...CLC AVIATION...GSF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021022 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 222 AM AKDT WED APR 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT BEYOND THE SHORT TERM WITH THIS LATEST RUN. GFS/NAM CONTINUE THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE BY TRYING TO CREATE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DRY INTERIOR SO WILL REMOVE IT AGAIN TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A REGIME CHANGE OVER ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE UNDER FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR SO WILL LEAN ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...543 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AS 517 DAM LOW OVER THE HIGH HIGH ARCTIC DROPS TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMPLEX LOW OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES EAST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA ACROSS NORTON SOUND AND SOUTH OVER COOK INLET AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 520 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA ARCTIC COAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER OLD CROW TONIGHT. RIDGE GETS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS 514 DAM LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND MOVES EAST TO OVER BARROW BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. 513 DAM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY MORNING TO OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE...WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA. A 983MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON STRENGTHENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. AS WE GET TO THE WEEKEND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0712Z SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC TO THE ARCTIC PLAIN. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE STRATUS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND LOWS INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0712Z SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY TODAY. WINDS ON THE MAINLAND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND NOME EAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTERIOR...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL NOT STICK AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. RELYING ON PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK THEN SOME COOLING ON THE WEEKEND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB APR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 011128 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 328 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD WITH GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS. GFS/NAM CONTINUE THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE BY TRYING TO CREATE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DRY INTERIOR SO WILL REMOVE IT AGAIN TODAY. GFS STILL SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING SYSTEMS SO WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FOR GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...538 DAM HIGH OVER ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE 544 DAM HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE 544 DAM HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 531 DAM. A 522DAM LOW OVER 76N 160W WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 100 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 514 DAM. TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS MORNING...DRIFTING EAST TO EXTEND SOUTH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TONIGHT...AND THEN EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE STATE. SURFACE...WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR 76N 160W WILL SLIP SOUTH TODAY TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL PERSIST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST TO ATKA ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AND NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 982 MB. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC...STILL SOME STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AS SEEN ON MODIS 11UM BT AT 0807Z. WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED TO JUST WEST OF BARROW THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TO SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL DO MUCH FOR KICKING THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP IT IN THE AREA WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WEST OF BARTER ISLAND NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NICE MODIS 11UM BT AT 0807Z STILL SHOWS STATUS HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOTZEBUE SOUND. MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND AND OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND NORTON SOUND REGIONS. GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SINCE MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY AND MAKE TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR NO APPARENT REASON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE HILLSIDES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 311122 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 322 AM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN TOO COLD SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. GFS STILL TRYING TO CREATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE VERY DRY INTERIOR OF ALASKA SO WILL REMOVE THEM FROM THE EQUATION FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS SEEMS TO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING SYSTEMS SO WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FOR GENERAL PATTERN. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...531 DAM LOW OVER AMBLER CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY TO BE OVER YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY MORNING. 537 DAM HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTH TO BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE WEST COAST WITH A 548 DAM CLOSED HIGH BEING PINCHED OFF OVER THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. 506 DAM LOW OVER ATKA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT NORTHWEST. SURFACE...NOT MUCH OF A FLOW PATTERN OVER THE STATE AGAIN TODAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UP THE WEST COAST WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACKED UP AGAINST THE BROOKS RANGE. A 1019MB LOW NEAR 75N 175E WILL MOVE TO 78N 175W BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST. A 976MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE EAST TO JUST NORTH OF NIKOLSKI BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES. A 1003MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR SAND POINT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES EAST TO NEAR SITKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC...STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE AREA SHOWING NOT SHOWING ANY MOVEMENT. DOES APPEAR TO BE ERODING AT THE EDGES ON SATELLITE BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE OUT OR LIFT UNTIL WEAK FRONT REACHES THE AREA TUESDAY. STICKING WITH PERSISTENCE OF LOW STRATUS...OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT SINCE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF IT CLEARING UNTIL THE WEAK FRONT PROVIDES THE DYNAMICS TO MAKE IT GO AWAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO 15 MPH TODAY SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOLING BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND SEWARD PENINSULA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INLAND AREAS. MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL PUSH THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP IT HANGING AROUND. NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES OUT OF THE STRATUS. CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF Z214 WHICH WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER TODAY TO 15 TO 30 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. WILL PUSH PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SINCE MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY AND MAKE TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR NO APPARENT REASON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE HILLSIDES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 242020 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 320 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 A QUIET BUT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS CLOUDS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AS MIXING LAYER DEEPENS TO 6K TO 8K FT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST VWP SHOWS AVG OF 25KTS THROUGH THE SFC/6K LAYER. MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES HAS BEEN OVER THE SRN TIER OF ZONES. VERY LITTLE/NO PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO APPROACHING FNTL BDRY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...MID LVL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER GT LAKES INCREASING THE DEPTH OF NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. A COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TIME/HEIGHT XSECTS SHOW SOME INCREASING SATURATION IN DGZ LAYER SO HAVE KEPT FLURRIES IN FCST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MORE PROBABLE LOCATION FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. BUFKIT LES TECHNIQUE INDICATES A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MID EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND A MDT/STRONG DGZ/OMEGA SIGNATURE DEVELOPS. MODIS IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A SOMEWHAT LARGER AREA OF OPEN WATER ALONG WRN EDGE OF SUPERIOR IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS FISSURES. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE FCST WIND DIRECTION AS IT MAY BE TOO WESTERLY AT THE TIME OF MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY. MAY SEE A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG THE GOGEBIC OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN TEMPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FCST USING A BLEND OF COLDER EC/MAV MOS. TOMORROW...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH GENERALLY A SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACTIVITY IN THE HYDROMETEOR DEPARTMENT. MAX TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLO CLIMO. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 THE FOCUS IS ON WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THAT A HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...BUT THE MODELS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING THE GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF/FIM...GENERALLY INDICATE THE LOW WILL EITHER MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS...OR AS FAR NORTH AS WELL NORTH AS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE GEM AND NAM HAVE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACKS...THE ECMWF AND FIM THE MOST SOUTHERN TRACKS...AND THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN. I LEANED ON THE GFS. THE STORM SYSTEM TRACK WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH PCPN THE NORTHLAND WILL GET...AS PCPN TYPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM IN THE 30S. THIS COULD BE THE CASE IN AT LEAST OUR SE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW WITH DEEP SATURATION ALOFT. I INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES...PCPN AMOUNTS...AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE AREAS OF OPEN WATER TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE IOWA OR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA REGION. THE WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY BECOME NE AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA AND NW WISCONSIN. THE SNOW AND PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT IT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCREASE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MOST FROM DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND CONSIDER A ISSUING A WATCH AT SOME POINT TOMORROW. BESIDES THE FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM...TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH. IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER OR WARMER THANT THIS FORECAST. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN...EITHER SNOW AND/OR RAIN...OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING MVFR AND VFR CIGS IN THE 2 TO 4 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE CIGS COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR VSBYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -2 17 0 28 / 10 10 0 40 INL -9 15 -6 28 / 10 10 0 60 BRD 0 20 2 35 / 10 10 0 10 HYR 0 18 -7 34 / 20 20 10 30 ASX 2 17 -2 31 / 30 10 0 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 230724 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 224 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TRAILING TO THE NW. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC AND COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY AND MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE AREA FREE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA LIFTS EWD. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT OR TRACE AMTS OF QPF/SNOW BEFORE MONDAY EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE FAIRLY DRY. THE COLD NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE JANUARY INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 TO 10. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL BE VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THEN UNDERGO GRADUAL WARMING. A MID-LATE WEEK SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. A SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES SHOW A LOT OF ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE...WITH OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT THE ICE COVER SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 24. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL HANDLE THE LOW DIFFERENTLY WITH VARYING IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHLAND. WE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ALL POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THE HARDEST. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW APPROACHES...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE THIRTIES BY THURSDAY. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM. WE WENT DRY FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...WE WILL NEED TO ADD A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO AT LEAST THE EAST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH THE MORNING...PUSHING EAST OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 17 -1 23 3 / 0 0 20 20 INL 15 -6 20 -5 / 0 0 30 20 BRD 21 5 28 3 / 10 0 20 10 HYR 18 -1 26 3 / 0 0 20 30 ASX 18 0 25 5 / 0 0 20 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...GRANING  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 221358 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 358 AM HST SAT MAR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TAKE OVER STATEWIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .DISCUSSION... AN 1142Z MODIS PASS SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO A JET STREAK TO OUR NE...IS KEEPING MAINLY THE BIG ISLAND IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE COULD BRIEFLY SPREAD TO OAHU THIS WEEKEND...SO RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED A BIT PRIMARILY FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS. THE AIRMASS WILL DEFINITIVELY STABILIZE AND DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO DRIER TRADEWIND WEATHER STATEWIDE WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 31N WILL SHIFT S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A NEW HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE W. THE TRADES WILL RELAX JUST A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEW HIGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS MON NIGHT...WHEN WE EXPECT A BUMP IN THE TRADES ONCE AGAIN. && AVIATION... AIRMET SIERRA CONTINUES FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC FOR MOLOKAI...LANAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO CLD AND SHRA. TEMPO MTN OBSC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF LOCAL MTN OBSC SHOW UP ON SATURDAY FROM LOCAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE SHRA/+TSRA OVER THE BIG ISLAND. AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON KAUAI AND OAHU...AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. && .MARINE... THE BUOYS AT WAIMEA AND HANALEI SUGGEST THAT THE NW SWELL IS STILL LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SURF. THUS WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE LONGER...THROUGH 10 AM. THE MORNING SURF OBSERVATIONS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE WHETHER IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS TODAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL RELAX ENOUGH TO ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEW HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE N. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM HST THIS MORNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ R BALLARD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 211141 AAA AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 441 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014 UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS .DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT EXPECT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THEN ON THE WEEKEND , A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A WETTER AND COOLER REGIME. THIS MORNING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA. ALSO LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED IN MANY INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, THE APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS RANGING FROM 22 TO 30 DEGREES F EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM WIND TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER MODOC COUNTY AND OVER AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND RUC KEEP THE AREA DRY. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN. MEANWHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND ON MONDAY. THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST AND COOL PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MODELS SHOW APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET, AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET. /CC && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE. LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO KRBG FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AROUND 17Z. PATCHY IFR FOG IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE VALLEY AND THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN NEAR REEDSPORT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 30KT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST NEAR KOTH. SPILDE && .MARINE...NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GALES WILL NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER ZONE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 40 NM OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD EASE SOMEWHAT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN WITH MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CAZ081. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376. $$ MAS/CC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 160858 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 358 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 LARGE SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET ALONG BORDERLAND. -22F AT KCDD AND -21F AT ASH LAKE SO FAR WITH A FEW HRS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING REMAINING. A MESOSCALE AREA OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WIND CIRCULATING AROUND LARGE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH. YESTERDAY MODIS SHOWED PLENTY OF OPEN WATER UPSTREAM OF THE ICE COVERED HEAD OF THE LAKE. 88D RETURNS OF APPROX 15/20 DBZ WITH 10SM -SN REPORTED AT KDYT. THERE IS A CORE OF 30 DBZ OVER THE LAKE SO WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN DULUTH AND TWO HARBORS IN NEXT FEW HRS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL ADVECT ALONG NORTH SHORE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING MAY TEMPORARILY ALLOW SUBSIDENCE TO ELIMINATE THIS POTENTIAL. SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WRN CWA AS AN APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS FROM TOP DOWN. HIGHEST PROB OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THE THERMAL FORCING...FRONTOGENESIS..ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTRIBUTES ADDITIONAL ASCENT. THE LATEST GEM IS INDICATING MUCH HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE ARROWHEAD BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS AN OUTLIER. LATEST GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST 24HR TOTAL OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. PTYPE ISSUES MAY ARISE OVER SWRN AND EXTREME WRN CWA DURING THE DAY AS THE SREF PTYPES AND SOME OF THE NWP SNDGS SUGGEST. MDL THERMAL FIELDS COMPLICATED BY THE COLLAPSING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH FOCUS FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE CTRL PLAINS. BY LATE MONDAY MID LVL FLOW IS FCST TO FEATURE SOMEWHAT OF A CONFLUENT NATURE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY TROF AND NRN ROCKIES SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS STORM WITH INCREASING INTEREST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...THOUGH NEARER TERMS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...BUT HAS BEEN DRIFTING THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST ON THE LAST 3 RUNS...BRINGING THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS WELL. IN GENERAL PREFER A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAR NORTHWEST...AND THE GEM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AS COMPARED TO THE BLEND. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEGATIVE TILT IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NO LONGER AS APPARENT...WITH MODELS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN THIS TRACK. THE SURFACE LOW NOW MOVES ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIPPING ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD TRACK FOR BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HEADLINES...PERHAPS EVEN WARNINGS. HOWEVER...FOR NOW AM KEEPING TO A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THIS DISCUSSION FOR NOW...AND WE CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AWHILE LONGER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER...WITH ONLY A SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS WAVE SHOULD MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WE HAVE ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COOLING OFF AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE MN/NW WI OVERNIGHT..RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SMALL AREA OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COULD AFFECT KDLH AND/OR KHYR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 10Z..BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS TIME. RAPID RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED 14-17Z SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL ALSO RAPIDLY THICKEN..WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT KINL AROUND 00Z MONDAY..AND KHIB/KDLH BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 23 14 28 21 / 10 60 50 50 INL 24 15 34 21 / 10 60 40 30 BRD 25 18 34 26 / 0 60 30 70 HYR 23 11 29 22 / 0 60 60 20 ASX 23 11 29 22 / 10 40 60 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...MILLER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 140820 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...CDFNT TO THE WEST OF 60W EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 20N SAT THEN DISSIPATE BY MON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. CDFNT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA ON SAT STALLING ALONG 20N WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP BETWEEN 19N AND 20N. SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY ON THE SOUTH COAST SAT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUN LEADING TO GRADUAL DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS QUICKLY MON THRU TUE LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP DRYING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ON THE SOUTH COAST MON-TUE AS WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH OVR THE ECNTRL ATLC. EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK...THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS VERY WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER NOT ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT ALSO ON THE NORTH COAST WHERE FUELS HAVE CURED. && .AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA AT TIMES THRU TONITE WI CHC OF MVFR IN THE SHRA...OTHW VFR. SCT SHRA OVR S/SW PR ON SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL100 E-NE 5-15 KT THRU SAT. && .MARINE...LOCAL AREA UNDER A COL THIS MORNING YIELDING LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FLAT SEAS. NNW SWELLS EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT SAT ACCORDING TO LATEST WW3. SCA MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR AMZ710. && .FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE GOOD RAINS SO FAR THIS MONTH AT CABO ROJO AND GUANICA WITH 0.82 AND 1.41 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...SIG LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN AT THESE TWO STATIONS PER LATEST KBDI READINGS NEAR 600. THE LATEST ERC AND KBDI INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILES USING THE CLIMATOLOGY AVAILABLE SINCE 2004. THE OVERALL VEGETATIVE HEALTH ACROSS THE SOUTH REMAINS POOR AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING WITH HUGE AMOUNTS OF FUEL LOADING BASED ON RECENT MODIS NDVI IMAGERY. FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 84 74 84 73 / 0 10 20 20 STT 83 76 84 76 / 0 20 20 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KAPX 140659 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 259 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...BRINGING IN A SURGE OF WARMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR JUST A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRIER BUT QUITE COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE SOMETIME TOWARD MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 ...DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT GETTING COLD TONIGHT... IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. CONFIDENCE: PRETTY DECENT FOR BOTH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND FOR MINIMAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT. CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION: A VERY WAVY...YET NOT TOO AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE WEST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN THE DAKOTAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH NICE SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS WORKING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY SHOVED EAST OF US...ALONG WITH A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH ONLY SOME LEFTOVER LOW CLOUD IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. THIS RESULTING FROM LAST VESTIGES OF SHALLOW OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS GETTING ERODED/SQUASHED FROM CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA IN FAIRLY BREEZY S/SW FLOW. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH MOISTURE. THE AIR MASS IS PRETTY DRY...AND THE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT ALLOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SUGGESTED DRIZZLE FROM SAID MODELS (WHICH WE WERE HIGHLY SKEPTICAL OF YESTERDAY). RATHER...JUST SOME SCATTERED-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD IS SEEN IN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OVER NRN MICHIGAN. THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT (AT LEAST THE INITIAL COLD FRONT) IS DRAPED ACROSS MN AND THE BORDER OF IA/SD..AND IS COMPLETELY MOISTURE-STARVED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING OVER IT. THE FORCING ARRIVES OVER NRN MICHIGAN TODAY ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...WITH WAA AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING TO USHER IN DRY CONTINENTAL AIR. DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE SEEMINGLY THE KEY FEATURES FOR WHETHER PRECIP CAN FALL...BUT CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT IS...SERIOUSLY DOUBTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP. A SECONDARY/STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER AND TONIGHT FOR NRN LOWER. CONVERGENCE WANES WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS SETTING UP AND DEEPENING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...BUT AGAIN...WITH MOSTLY ICE COVERED WATERS OUTSIDE OF SOME OPEN AREAS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON. WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ERODE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ABOVE THAT THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN...SCATTERED HIGHER LEVEL CU AND BKN MID CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (MAYBE A SKIFF OF SNOW AT THE ONSET?). TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S...WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF NE LOWER. S/SW WINDS A TOUCH BREEZY SHIFTING WEST. LOWER CLOUD ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER AND TONIGHT FOR NRN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING NOTICEABLY. MAYBE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY NW LOWER AND THE ROGERS CITY-ALPENA AREAS. LOWS BOTTOMING OUT FROM 10 TO 15F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER HALF OF THE 20S IN NRN LOWER. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 WELL...ENJOY TODAY'S EXPECTED WARMTH...BECAUSE UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE FREEZER DOOR IS ONCE AGAIN ABOUT TO OPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PARTS OF NEXT WEEK (THOUGH THIS FORECASTER PERSONALLY WISHES SOMEONE WOULD WELD THAT DOOR SHUT). PER MULTI-MODEL TRENDS OVER MANY DAYS NOW...THERE REALLY APPEARS TO BE NO DISCERNIBLE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN ON THE HORIZON AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF ALASKA HELPS MAINTAIN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...THUS SENDING HEIGHTS FALLING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AS THE SEEMING PERMANENT TROUGH FEATURE OF THE PAST 4 MONTHS HANGS TOUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IN THIS WHOLE SETUP IS THAT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL... SO THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD...AT LEAST THERE ARE SOME PROSPECTS FOR THAT EVER-HIGHER IN THE SKY MARCH SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE MURKY HEADING INTO MIDWEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY STORM SYSTEM. THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES AS WE PUSH INTO THE 3RD WEEK OF MARCH. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE STRIPS OUT THROUGH THE MORNING. INCOMING AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO FEATURE H8 TEMPS SOMEWHERE AROUND -18C...WHICH IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GET INTO LAKE CONCERNS...THOUGH THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ICE COVER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS (THOUGH IT HAS MOVED AROUND THE PAST WEEK OR SO). BASED ON OUR LAST AVAILABLE CLEAR MODIS IMAGERY...IT WOULD APPEAR THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS ON NORTHERN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON TO PROVIDE AT THE VERY LEAST SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...THOUGH THE FETCH LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 20 MILES AT BEST...ALL WHILE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS JUST SOCKED IN WITH THICK ICE. GIVEN THE UNKNOWN ABOUT JUST WHERE ICE HAS MOVED AND/OR REDEVELOPED...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW REGARDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE THE LAKES WILL FIND A WAY TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE SOMETHING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. AFTER ALL...JUST LOOK AT WEDNESDAY WHEN NORTHEAST FLOW OFF HURON WAS ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS WILL BE INTENTIONALLY KEPT LOW AND CLOUD COVER INCREASED...PARTICULARLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MOISTURE FURTHER THINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN WORKS THROUGH THE REGION (STOP ME IF YOU'VE HEARD THAT SETUP BEFORE). AIRMASS LOOKS RIDICULOUSLY DRY WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 0.04 INCHES/H8 DEW POINTS PUSHING -40C...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SETUPS THE PAST MONTH OR TWO AND EXPECTED SHIFTING OF WINDS TO THE NORTH...HAVE TO BELIEVE ANY RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL GET SHUT DOWN QUICKLY. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT BUT DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT WINDS MAY STAY COUPLED FOR AT LEAST A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. STILL...LOWS BELOW ZERO PROBABLY A GOOD BET FOR THOSE USUAL COLD SPOTS...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY STRUGGLING THROUGH THE TEENS...THOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. PROBABLY ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS LAYS OVERHEAD...BUT UPSTREAM WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL BE UNDERWAY INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS AN AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS WORKS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HELPING INCITE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY INVOLVING THIS PIECE OF ENERGY AND THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF ITS SURFACE RESPONSE INTO MIDWEEK...WITH RECENT MODEL TRENDS NOT EXACTLY OFFERING INCREASED CONFIDENCE. WHILE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER...THE BASIC GIST DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY BUT WITH LOADS OF DRY AIR DOWN LOW HINDERING ANY PRECIP CHANCES UP THIS WAY. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THAT EXACT TRACK WILL OF COURSE HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT TYPE OR TYPES OF PRECIP WE END UP SEEING HERE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT AT THE MOMENT...ALL TYPES ARE ON THE TABLE. GIVEN THIS IS MANY DAYS OUT WITH LOTS OF ROOM FOR CHANGES...WILL JUST KEEP THE GENERIC RAIN OR SNOW MENTION GOING...BUT NO DOUBT THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASINGLY BE THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS AFTER WE CLEAR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 ...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES... AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER THAN ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. SHALLOW OVERLAKE INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING MVFR CIGS TO EXPAND INTO APN AND BACK TOWARD MBL. WARM ADVECTION INTO THIS CLOUD LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT IT...LEAVING SCATTERED MID CLOUD IN STEEP LAPSE RATES REGIME AHEAD OF INCOMING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FOR TODAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG THIS FRONT...AND AS IT ROLLS THROUGH TODAY...EXPECTING LITTLE TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL ROAM THE AIRPORTS. A SECONDARY TROUGH/SURGE OF COLD AIR BLOWS THROUGH TONIGHT AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAYBE SOME FLURRIES AROUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR TVC/MBL. WIND WILL GUST 15-20KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING AOB 10KTS OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE SHORT TERM...SMD LONG TERM...LAWRENCE AVIATION...SMD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 122055 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 455 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH CHILLY AIR MOVING TOWARD LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. FOR OUR AREA...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS LIMITED OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR /MAINLY NEAR ISLE ROYALE AND JUST EAST OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA/ LED TO CLOUDS AND FLURRIES EARLIER TODAY MAINLY OVER NCNTRL CWA AND NEAR KEWEENAW BAY...BUT SFC HIGH WITH VERY DRY AIR PUT END TO THAT BY EARLY AFTN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...WHICH ALLOWED FOR CRYSTAL CLEAR MODIS SATELLITE IMAGE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS UPR LAKES TONIGHT LEADING TO VERY COLD NIGHT OVER THE CWA. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING BENEATH THE RIDGE WERE BLO 30 BLO OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ONTARIO. THOUGH H95 TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EVEN ON PERIFERY OF BITTER COLD AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 BLO. LATER TONIGHT...AFT 06Z...HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE H7 SPILLING OUT OF MANITOBA THIS AFTN BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER WEST HALF OF CWA WHICH ALONG WITH A LGT SOUTH WIND MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN RISE...ESPECIALLY WEST. COLDEST TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER EAST CWA WHERE THERE IS LESS IMPACT FM THE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING RETURN SOUTH WINDS. SHORTWAVE CROSSING FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTS IN H7-H5/H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER ONTARIO BUT THAT STAYS MOSTLY NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. THUS...OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. YET...CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME LGT SNOW OR PROBABLY FLURRIES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF SHORTWAVE OVER CWA /H85 TEMPS RISE FM -17C OVER UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO -2C BY THURSDAY EVENING/. SOUNDINGS INDICATE BEST MERGER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ OF TEMPS BLO -10C AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL RH WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE EASTERN CWA. MAYBE A BIT OF HELP OFF LK MICHIGAN TOO THOUGH ICE COVERAGE IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE. KEPT POPS LOW FOR ALL AREAS THOUGH AS PRIMARY FORCING FOR SNOW STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL SHOW A LARGE RANGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 925-850MB OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW READINGS OVER FAR WEST TO BE AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN RESULTS IN READINGS ONLY AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE FAR EAST CWA. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. IF NOT FOR THE EXPECTED BKN CLOUD COVER...WOULD FORECAST EVEN WARMER TEMPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA SIMILAR TO REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 THRU THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME OF THE COLD SEASON WILL CONTINUE. WITH VARYING DEGREES OF WRN NAMERICA RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...A MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN OVER ERN NAMERICA. EVEN LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...GFS RUNS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD CONTINUED PERSISTENCE OF ERN TROFFING DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING ALONG OR NEAR THE W COAST. SO...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON MOST DAYS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. THAT SAID...WITH A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE FEATURES TRANSLATING THRU THE MEAN BACKGROUND PATTERN...TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE A FAIR AMOUNT RATHER THAN BEING PERSISTENTLY WAY BLO NORMAL. THIS PATTERN DOESN'T FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR UPPER MI THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LAKES WILL ONLY BE AFFECTED BY CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES PERIODICALLY. PLUS...MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LES. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ESE THRU THE DAKOTAS AND REACHING ERN MN/NW WI FRI MORNING WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES FROM VCNTY OF LAKE WINNIPEG TO VCNTY OF CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ALONG AND N OF SFC LOW TRACK WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FORCING COMBINE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR. THUS...SNOW SHOULD MISS MOST OF UPPER MI TO THE N AND E. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVELS REMAINING MOSTLY DRY...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER -FZDZ WHERE S TO SW WINDS UPSLOPE...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE NAM/GFS OVER-FORECASTING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY OFTEN DO. IF SOME -FZDZ DOES OCCUR...BEST CHC WOULD BE IN 2 AREAS. FIRST IS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE S TO SW WINDS UP LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECT SOME MOISTURE N OVER ICE COVER WHICH WILL PACK BACK INTO THE N END OF THE LAKE UNDER S/SW WINDS. SECOND IS OVER THE NW FCST AREA WHERE WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FRI MORNING. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS...MOSTLY SCHC...IN BOTH AREAS. DEEP MOISTURE WRAPS THRU THE FCST AREA AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS E ACROSS NRN WI/UPPER MI FRI...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF WAVES SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SOME -SHSN ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA FRI-FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AS WELL FRI BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES. IF THE SHARPER WIND SHIFT ALONG TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND SFC LOW MATERIALIZES AS THE NAM SHOWS...THEN THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FAIRLY DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE W AND NW AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA FRI AFTN/EVENING. IF THERE WASN'T SO MUCH ICE ON THE LAKE...THERE WOULD BE A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST MDT LES INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN AS IT IS...THE NAM GENERATES PCPN AMOUNTS OF 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES ACROSS THE KEWEEENAW FRI AND SPREADING S ACROSS FAR WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES. ANY LINGERING -SHSN SHOULD GRADUALLY END OR DIMINISH TO FLURRIES DURING THE DAY SAT AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 FRI...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD THEN RISE VERY LITTLE SAT AS ARCTIC AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA ON NORTHERLY WINDS. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY FALL A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE N AS THE ARCTIC CHILL IS MAINTAINED AS THE AIR FLOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER ALBEDO ICE/SNOW COVERED LAKE. TEMPS MAY END UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AFTN. WITH DRYING AIR MASS AND ANY OPEN WATER AREAS OR BKN ICE FREEZING UP AS WINDS DIMINISH...SKIES SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY CLEAR SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST 15PCT OF NORMAL). SFC HIGH CENTER WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO IT WON'T BE A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. HOWEVER...TRENDS ARE FOR HIGH TO RIDGE INTO UPPER MI A LITTLE QUICKER...OR IN THE CASE OF THE GEM...THE HIGH DOES REACH UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. WILL OPT FOR MINS IN MANY CASES WELL BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W...CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC HIGH. EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO E AND TEENS BLO ZERO W WITH TRADITIONAL COLDS SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR W WELL DOWN INTO THE -20S...POTENTIALLY -30F. IF SFC HIGH PRES ARRIVES QUICKER...TEMPS WILL BE COLDER ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MORE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS REACHING -30F OR LOWER. SUNDAY WILL START SUNNY...AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W DURING THE AFTN. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR MID MAR AS MORNING 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -18 TO -21C. WITH SFC HIGH DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...IT WILL BE COLDEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF THE ICE COVER THRU THE DAY. HIGHS PROBABLY WON'T GET MUCH ABOVE 10F ALONG THE LAKE...AND MAY EVEN STAY BLO 10F AT SOME LOCATIONS. IN THE INTERIOR...SUNSHINE WORKING ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 20. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST SFC HIGH MOVES AWAY AND HOW FAST HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE. TEMPS OVER THE E HAVE THE BEST CHC TO PLUMMET IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY. WILL INCLUDE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO IN THAT AREA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO W. IT IS NOTED THAT THE ECWMF IS TRENDING TO HOLD MORE HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN NIGHT...A TREND THAT CONTINUES ON INTO MON/TUE/WED AS WELL. IF SO...SUN NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN REFLECTED IN THIS FCST. MON THRU WED...AS JUST MENTIONED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD MAINTAINING MORE SFC HIGH PRES INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON THRU WED AS IT KEEPS DEEPER TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC TO BE SHUNTED FARTHER S...MISSING THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE THE GEM HAS A SIMILAR LOOK...WILL TEND TO FAVOR THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEP ANY EXPLICIT MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FCST MON-WED. IF THE ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT...TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE LOWER THAN REFLECTED IN THIS FCST...ESPECIALLY SO AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT KSAW WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS BY THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND THESE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ON THURSDAY. LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT DID NOT MENTION ATTM. NO REAL REDUCTION TO VSBY IS EXPECTED FROM ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SETTLE DOWN BRIEFLY BELOW 20 KTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KTS BY SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 121456 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 956 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM ABOUT SILVER BAY TO THE TWIN PORTS...EAST TO ASHLAND. THE STRONGEST ECHOES/LOWEST VSBYS WERE OCCURRING FROM TWO HARBORS TO THE TWIN PORTS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE TWO MAIN BANDS IMPACTING OUR CWA HAVE SOURCE REGIONS FROM OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH A SECOND AREA OF OPEN WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE DLH WRF SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK SOME THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THAT SHOULD START TO LIMIT THE RESIDENCE TIME OVER OPEN WATER. MODIS IMAGERY FROM THE 10TH/11TH SHOWED THE ICE HAD THINNED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SO WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. WE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS THIS MORNING. WE PUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1-2 INCHES IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DULUTH AREA. KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY. THINK SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE BUT THE HEAVIEST HAS MOVED OFF. WE SAW UP TO 7 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKES. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SHOULD DEFINITELY BE A COLDER DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 AT 330 AM...A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WE HAD RECEIVED 2 1/2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT THE AIRPORT,..AND A LOCAL METEOROLOGIST JUST SOUTHEAST OF HEAR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND REPORTED 4 1/4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE BAND WAS VERY NARROW...AS IT WAS LARGELY PERPETUATED BY A NARROW AREA OF OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. HOWEVER IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE IT WAS LARGELY CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF NE MN...WITH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF NW WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WERE FOUND ACROSS NW WI. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ZONE 37...WHICH IS SOUTHERN SAINT LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES. WHILE THE SNOWFALL WAS HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE ZONE WILL NOT SEE THE HEAVY AMOUNTS...IT WILL CAUSE QUITE AN IMPACT FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE IN THE GREATER DULUTH AREA. THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5 TO 7 INCH TOTAL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THINK THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. STRONG WAA AND FGEN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR TWO BUT COULD BE A BIT MORE IN SPOTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS/SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 SPLIT FLOW REMAINS IN THE WESTERLIES THIS PERIOD WITH NRN BRANCH ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS AND NRN PLAINS MOST OF THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT A CONTINUATION OF FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED. PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE EVIDENT AT TIMES AS LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO MODIFY UNDER AN INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF BDRY LAYER. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THUR NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY IN MN ZONES...MAY STILL BE A MIX OVER WISC ZONES. A DEEP CYCLONIC AND RELATIVELY MOIST CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY OVER THE CWA. A RESIDUAL BDRY LAYER TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN CWA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO HIGHER POPS. WILL USE MAINLY SNOW OVER NRN ZONES...RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT TO A WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. MID LVL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER NRN PLAINS MON/TUESDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF INITIAL NRN PLAINS SFC LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN A PROLONGED PATTERN OF WARM ADVECTION WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE POPS REMAIN IN FCST INTO AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE AOA CLIMO FRIDAY BEFORE LOWERING TO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 AREA OF SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR TWIN PORTS IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR BY MID MORNING AT BOTH KHYR/KDLH. OTHERWISE SOUTHWARD BUILDING RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LOWERING CEILINGS EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT WITH -SN POSSIBLE AT KINL/KBRD/KHIB. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO ERN TERMINALS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 20 9 43 28 / 80 60 10 20 INL 19 12 44 26 / 30 60 10 40 BRD 23 16 47 27 / 10 50 10 10 HYR 19 5 44 28 / 30 60 10 20 ASX 13 1 46 28 / 60 60 30 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...CANNON AVIATION...CANNON  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 112028 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER RADAR IMAGERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN BAND OF 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ALSO HELPING OUT. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THIS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THIS BAND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS MAY AFFECT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENING RUSH HOUR PERIOD IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THIS BAND BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW AS IT LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID EVENING...AND IN KENOSHA COUNTY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION...CAUSING THE FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 12Z MODELS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KENOSHA COUNTY TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOT MORE QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING LITTLE TO NONE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AMOUNTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...AS WET NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 6 MILES AT WORST. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH THE STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE 12Z NAM SATURATES AT 700 MB LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT MIDNIGHT LOWS AND THEN A SLOW RISE. MOST MODELS BRING A FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING BUT LASTS A BIT LONGER OVER THE FAR EAST. THE 285 KELVIN LAYER SHOWS MODERATE LIFT AND SATURATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF ZERO. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BEFORE THICKNESS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD START MILD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THEN COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON. .LONG TERM... .FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB RH IS HIGH AND EXPECT A STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A MORE EAST WEST STRUCTURE...WHILE THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING ON MONDAY. .TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON THE GFS...BUT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE 00Z ECMWF. THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES INTO EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 04Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AT MADISON...AROUND 07Z AT WAUKESHA/MILWAUKEE...AND UNTIL AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY AT KENOSHA. LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE EASTERN SITES...AND UNDER 1 INCH AT MADISON. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTH AND REMAINING GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 30 TO 33 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT MADISON. NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 6 MILES FROM ANY BLOWING SNOW...AS THE SNOW WILL BE THE WET AND HEAVY TYPE. && .MARINE... GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 03Z TO 17Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE GALE WARNING PERIOD. ICE COVER HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS PER RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO...EXPECT HIGH WAVES UP TO 5 TO 10 FEET TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN. HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 111708 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1208 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .UPDATE...AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA PER RADAR IMAGERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN BAND OF 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ALSO HELPING OUT. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THIS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS BAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL STILL AFFECT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR PERIOD IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THIS BAND BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW AS IT LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE EVENING...AND IN KENOSHA COUNTY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION...CAUSING THE FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 12Z MODELS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KENOSHA COUNTY TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOT MORE QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING LITTLE TO NONE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AMOUNTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LEANING TOWARD NOT ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...AS WET NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN BY 20Z TO 21Z TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME ALL LIGHT SNOW BY 02Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 04Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AT MADISON...AROUND 07Z AT WAUKESHA/MILWAUKEE...AND UNTIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AT KENOSHA. LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE EASTERN SITES...AND UNDER 1 INCH AT MADISON. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTH AND REMAINING GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT MADISON. NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM ANY BLOWING SNOW...AS THE SNOW WILL BE THE WET AND HEAVY TYPE. && .MARINE...GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 03Z TO 17Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE GALE WARNING PERIOD. ICE COVER HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS PER RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO...EXPECT HIGH WAVES UP TO 5 TO 10 FEET TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN. HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN IN KEEPING STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT. 00Z NAM STRONG OUTLIER DUE TO ITS MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT. THIS HAS OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WINTER AS WELL WITH NAM GUIDANCE. 00Z NAM ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH COUPLED JET OVER SOUTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT WHILE ECMWF AND GFS SOUTH IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. FORTUNATELY 06Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. STRONG AREA OF LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. HENCE WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS TODAY. COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI ON INCREASING NORTH WINDS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. TOP- DOWN METHOD AND CRITICAL THICKNESS FAVOR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTN. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTH BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO MELT DURING THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING...THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH THE EMPHASIS SHIFTING TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN WI LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM. MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE SN SPREADS BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WI LATER TONIGHT. FAR SOUTHEAST MAY END UP GETTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE NOW OPEN WATERS OF THE NEARSHORE WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH TO AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS AFT 05Z. DAY SHIFT WL NEED TO CONTEMPLATE WHETHER A WINTER WX ADVY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED.COMING SOON. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BLUSTERY DAY SHAPING UP WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MODELS KEYING MORE ON LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW. MAIN CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. 850 TEMPS DROP TO - 16C TO -18C CREATING MORE THAN FAVORABLE DELTA-T. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER FETCH...NNE IN THE LOW LAYERS IN THE MORNING BUT INVERSION HEIGHT QUITE LOW AND MORE BORDERLINE DELTA-T THEN. DURING THE AFTERNOON WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE NNW THOUGH DELTA-T BECOMES EXTREMELY FAVORABLE THEN WITH HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEY THE POP FORECAST ON LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOWS AND NOT JUMP ON LAKE EFFECT JUST YET. TEMPS IN MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT PAST 20 SO WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS QUITE LIKELY. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER FLOW BECOMES BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN. 12Z ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH 925 TEMPS WARMING BACK ABV 0C...WHILE THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING 925 TEMPS AOB 0C. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER ADIABATIC OMEGA COINCIDES WITH LOWERING OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE AT 12Z. WITH 850 FRONT PASSING THROUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY. SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE BETTER TO THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST INTACT. GFS SHOWS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING THAN THE GFS...SO A BLENDED 925 TEMP APPROACH STILL SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE WILL BE A KEY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHSN LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW. 850 TEMPS DROP OFF INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE. HOWEVER UPPER FLOW IS CYCLONIC. ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER SHORTWAVE SOUTHWEST OF WI KEEPING PRECIP JUST SOUTH. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW WARM ADVECTION SIGNAL ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF ABOUT 4-5C WARMER THAN THE GFS. PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY WX FOR SRN WI. ECMWF SHOWS WAA INDUCED PCPN ACRS PARTS OF NRN WI...WHILE THE GFS IS COMPLETELY DRY...SO QUIET ALLBLEND POPS LOOK OK AT THIS POINT. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR AND LIKELY LOWER FOR A TIME. AREA OF -RA WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY AND TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF -SN TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF -SN AND STRONG WINDS WL LIKELY CREATE LOW VSBYS AT KENW TNGT. MARINE...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGE FROM TUE SHOWS MUCH OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN CLEARED OF ICE DUE TO THE RECENT STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HENCE OPEN WATERS WILL CREATE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG. HENCE WL POST GALE WARNING WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST WED AFTN AND EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 111746 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 AT 345AM/0845Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF PCPN NORTH OF THE LOW...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST...WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY FROM MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE QUEBEC LOW TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THERE WAS CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR...AIR OF ARCTIC ORIGINS...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MUCH OF ONTARIO...MANITOBA...AND SASKATCHEWAN HAD BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE NORTHLAND HAD TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE WNW TO NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH. TODAY...THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST TO MISSOURI. ITS BAND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THEN BEGIN TO SCATTER AND SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DITCH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS....THE LOW CLOUDS IN CANADA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...SO I INCREASED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SINCE THOSE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY. TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME NNE TO ENE. CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A LOT MORE OPEN WATER NOW DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER...THE COLD FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS NW WISCONSIN...THE TWIN PORTS AREA...AND FOR THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ON THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT...BUT THE NAM12 AND SREF ARE DOING MUCH BETTER HANDLING THIS. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY GET ABOUT A HALF TO A FULL INCH. MORE IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE THREAT WHEN THIS TIMEFRAME COMES INTO VIEW FOR MORE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE BEST PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 3 AM. THIS IS WHEN OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE BEST...AND THEN DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND DECREASING WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL AROUND AND SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. I DECREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST NOW HAS A RANGE OF MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...TO THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LIGHTEN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES...BUT I DID LOWER THE HIGHS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS BEING MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE ONLY THE GFS WAS THIS QUICK AT BRINGING IN THE PCPN...I DECIDED TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 HAVE INCREASED TO BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT/MID LEVEL OMEGA TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...TRIGGERING A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A HALF TO ONE INCH. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS THE WARM SECTOR PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S. LATEST MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING...BUT ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH CLOSED H85/SFC LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A LACK OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/MN ARROWHEAD ZONES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON IN THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST MONDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND AHEAD OF AN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THIS ORGANIZED SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND TRACKS OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY/TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AS WELL TONIGHT. STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 2500-3500 TO MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE RAP HAS DONE AN OK JOB DEPICTING THE CLOUDS...BUT DOES SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER MODIS IMAGERY...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LES/CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN KDLH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 34 4 19 10 / 10 30 10 50 INL 27 -9 19 15 / 20 10 0 50 BRD 36 7 23 15 / 10 10 10 40 HYR 36 3 17 8 / 10 20 10 40 ASX 37 3 13 4 / 10 30 20 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...GRANING AVIATION...MELDE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 101036 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 236 AM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODEL INITIALIZED WELL ON THE MAJOR FEATURES. PATTERN CHANGE IS ONGOING AND ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT SIMILARLY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...CLOSED 501 DAM LOW OVER NORTHWEST MAINLAND MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BERING STRAIT BY TUESDAY MORNING. 499 DAM CLOSE LOW 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH OVER ILIAMNA THIS EVENING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE FIRST MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL FOLLOW WITH THE NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM NOME TO EAGLE THIS MORNING. THE ISOTHERM WILL PIVOT ON A POINT OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH OVER THE MAINLAND AND COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE 500 HPA LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA. SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL BREAK DOWN AS 962MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH TO BE OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...AND CONTINUES NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT 988MB THEN DISSIPATES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE 200NM SOUTH OVER SAND POINT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 973MB. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE DEVELOPING TODAY AS FIRST LOW MOVES NORTH...STRONGER CHINOOK FLOW WITH THE SECOND LOW ON THURSDAY. BAND OF SNOW TO REACH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXTENDING EAST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. EAST OF TANANA AND SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THE INTERIOR WILL MOSTLY BE SHADOWED OUT OF THE SNOW...THOUGH SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. EXPECT A MESSY WEATHER SITUATION OUT WEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BRING MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING. MODIS 11 UM BT AT 10/0706Z SHOWS STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE OF BARROW MOVING SOUTHWEST. BARROW SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT Z201 WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT LOWS FOR MOST AREAS TO BE 20 TO 40 BELOW TONIGHT WITH SOME 50 BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...GETTING PRETTY COMPLICATED OUT WEST. SNOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AROUND NOON TODAY THEN SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. SEWARD PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS AS THE FRONT ROTATES OVER THE AREA. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE LOWER YUKON AND NULATO HILLS UPSLOPE AREAS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW ENDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT SPREADS FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE LOWER YUKON BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INLAND BEGIN WARMING TODAY WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AIR IS PULLED DOWN THE COAST. WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING LATE TODAY. INTERIOR...SUNNY EARLY TODAY THEN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS MOST AREAS WILL BE SHADOWED OUT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TODAY WITH WARMING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. NEXT FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOW SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK CHINOOK WILL PRODUCE WINDS NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE FIRST EVENT AND SLIGHT STRONGER WINDS WITH THURSDAYS FRONT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 091133 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 333 AM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZE WELL. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE CHANGE IN PATTERN AS RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN INTERIOR AND TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING UP THE FACE OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING BACK OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. CLOSED 500 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER BEAVER THIS MORNING THEN MOVES NORTHWEST OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY EVENING. RIDGE PUSHES NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT WITH RIDGE AXIS LYING EAST TO WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PULLING THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH AND THEN EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN FROM NOME TO EAGLE MONDAY MORNING. THE ISOTHERM THEN PUSHES NORTH IN THE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND GETS PULLED SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE LOW ALOFT DROPS SOUTH. SURFACE...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE STATE...BUT THAT WILL BE CHANGING AS THE WEEK GOES ON. 980MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT THIS MORNING WILL PINBALL WEST TO COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 964MB LOW NEAR 47N 169W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TO KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING NORTH TO BE OVER COOK INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERN INTERIOR LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE CHINOOK FLOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW OUT WEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ANYWHERE AT THIS TIME. ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT MORE STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE CAN BE SEEN ON THE MODIS 11 UM BT AT 09/0801Z MOVING SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES TO MOVE OVER THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WAINWRIGHT EAST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE BUBBLE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY EXCEPT ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. STRONG WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL LET UP A LITTLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD TODAY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY ALONG THE COAST AS THE WEEK GOES ON. INCREASING CLOUDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SPREADING TO THE INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. INTERIOR...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WHICH WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES TODAY THAT ARE BEING FLUNG NORTH BY THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL TAPER DOWN AS THE DAY GOES ON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER FAIRBANKS SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT THAT MOST SNOW WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. && $$ SDB MAR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 081157 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 257 AM AKST SAT MAR 8 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN THE NEAR TERM. GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH THE 00Z RUN. WILL USE A MEAN TO ELIMINATE THE NOISE BETWEEN THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST TO WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES. SHORT WAVE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AS 504 DAM CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH OVER VENETIE THIS EVENING THEN DRIFTS OVER LIVENGOOD TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST RIDGE PUSHES NORTH AND WEST OVER THE INTERIOR WITH 520 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY MORNING MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR WITH IT AND THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH AND THEN EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN FROM NOME TO EAGLE BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATS NORTH AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE STATE. 974MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 100NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT THIS MORNING THEN PINBALL WEST TO OVER COOK INLET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 985MB LOW NEAR 40N 180 THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF ADAK BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN TO 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TO KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING NORTH TO BE OVER COOK INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE MID WEEK. ARCTIC COAST...STRATUS AND FLURRIES STILL CAUSING HAVOC. 08/0718Z MODIS 11UM BT SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND ALSO JUST OFF THE COAST MOVING SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DIURNAL RANGES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES. WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE IS FLUNG NORTH BY THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MILD WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 071051 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 151 AM AKST FRI MAR 7 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR TERM LATELY...AND THIS CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO THIS RUN. BECOMES PRETTY MUDDLED AS TIME GOES ON SO WILL USE THE MEAN BEYOND THAT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK TROUGH RUNNING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. 516 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA HAS MOVES TO OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE IN THE HIGH ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. 504 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WORKS SOUTHWEST OVER TANANA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE UPPER NOATAK EARLY MONDAY MORNING CONTINUING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PUSHES 522 HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY MORNING MOVES OVER COLD BAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...AS UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC IT BRINGS SOME COLD AIR WITH IT AND THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE YUKON TERRITORY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE STATE. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN WILL PERSIST. 976MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SOUTH OF YAKUTAT ON SATURDAY MORNING THEN PINBALL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 980MB LOW NEAR 40N 180 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 250NM SOUTH OF KODIAK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO COOK INLET AT 980MB BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND CAUSING HAVOC WITH THE TAFS. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS...SHOWS UP ON THE 1347Z NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT...THAT MAY DROPS SOUTH ALSO...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ITS PROGRESSION SOUTH. IF IT DOES MARCH SOUTH...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND THE STRATUS WILL HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. 07/0814Z MODIS 11 UM BT SHOWS SOME STRATUS IN THE LOWER YUKON. EXPECT FLURRIES IN THE LOWER YUKON TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DIURNAL RANGES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS BUT AT TIMES MAY KICK UP AROUND 20 MPH AS THE GRADIENT SQUEEZES A LITTLE. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW AT VALLEY LEVEL FOR MOST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. NORTH WINDS PERSISTING AND MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY NEAR ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGE PASSES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 032018 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 318 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA... ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN GENERAL. TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO THE TEENS. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT) WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40 PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. -SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014 TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 280957 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 457 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 457 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 WILL CONTINUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES. COLDEST NOTED SO FAR HAS BEEN -36 AT THE SPINCICH LAKE RAWS...AND -35 AT DOE LAKE. AT THE NWS OFFICE...THE COLDEST WAS -28 WHICH OCCURRED PRIOR TO 4AM /TEMPS WHERE NEARLY STEADY STATE BETWEEN -26 AND -28 FROM MIDNIGHT TO 345AM/. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE EXTREME COLD OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO -11 AT CMX ALREADY THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS IN THE SINGLE TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF S WINDS AROUND 8-12KTS. OTHER THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW S AND SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN INCOMING SYSTEM FROM WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE FCST. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW TO FALL PRIOR TO 06Z SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY UPDATING FCST MODELS...ANOTHER SLOW-DOWN MAY BE NEEDED. SLR ON THE ORDER 20-23:1 IN THE POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCED BAND MOVING INTO DELTA AND S SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 2-4IN OF SNOW...OR MORE. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE SHORELINE...WHEREVER ONSHORE FLOW FOCUSES THE EXPECTED MAIN BAND. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE/MODIS IMAGERY IT SEEMS THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF LATE HAVE RESULTED IN MUCH MORE OPEN WATER OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE MI. CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH...AS FRIGID TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWS FOR QUICK THIN ICE TO FORM. WAS IMPRESSED TO ALREADY SEE A S-N ORIENTED BAND OFF THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 2-4AM ALONG THE E SHORE OF LAKE MI UP TO THE GARDEN PENINSULA AND WASHINGTON INLAND. OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SHORES OF LOWER MI /FRANKFORT/. IN OUR LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING IT HAS MOVED AROUND QUITE A BIT ACROSS N LAKE MI. SMALL SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF 0.2 TO NEARLY 0.4IN QPF /HIGHEST OFF THE HIRESWRF/. POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO HANDLE BOTH THE LES AND SYSTEM SNOW FROM 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. THE SFC TROUGH OVER W-CENTRAL ND AT 10Z WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MN AT 18Z...AND OVER E UPPER MI AT 06Z. EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE LOW. INCREASED SFC TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. WIND CHILL VALUES PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN -25F...RESULTING IN NO WIND CHILL RELATED HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY VERY COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS THERE WL BE AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY MODERATION TOWARD WED/THU AS THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES A BIT. BUT PRESENCE OF MEAN UPR RDG IN LONGER RANGE MODELS OVER WRN NAMERICA INTO 3/10 INDICATES BLO NORMAL TEMPS WL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE WEEKS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM FOCUS ON SN AMOUNTS ON FRI NGT/POTENTIAL ADVY WIND CHILLS LATE FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO FCST TO TRACK FM LK SUP INTO SE ONTARIO. FOCUS FOR LATER SHIFTS MAINLY TO TEMPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY LES WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP. NO LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO IMPACT UPR MI ON SAT THRU THU. FRI NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE VIGOROUS NRN BRANCH WAVE WITH SFC LO OVER NCENTRAL LK SUP AT 00Z SAT HEADING E INTO SE ONTARIO OVERNGT. LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON THE 270-290K SFCS /H85 THRU H65/ AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS SOME UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET STREAK PASSING OVER NRN LK SUP/ADJOINING ONTARIO WL SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA 00Z-06Z SAT BEFORE DRY SLOTTING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF STRONGER JET MAX END THE PCPN W-E THRU THE NGT. MODELS INDICATE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RISING NEAR 2 G/KG AT MNM AT 00Z SAT...WITH S FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI ADDING MORE MSTR DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF ICE COVER. FCST SDNGS SHOW A DEEP DGZ...UP TO 10K FT DEEP AT MNM... SO EXPECT SN/WATER RATIOS MAY REACH 25-30:1. THESE NUMBERS INDICATE 2-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL FLUFFY SN MAY FALL OVER THE SE CWA AFT 00Z SAT BEFORE THE SN ENDS THERE IN THE EARLY MRNGS HRS ON SAT. ANOTHER CONCERN LATER WL BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVY LVL WIND CHILLS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATER AT NGT. SINCE THE SFC LO HAS TRENDED TO BE A BIT STRONGER...THE PRES GRADIENT/NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE MAY BE STRONG ENUF TO MAINTAIN STEADIER NW WINDS OVER THE LAND...ESPECIALLY SINCE H925 WINDS UP TO 25-30KT ARE PRESENT UNDER SHARP H85 CAD THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -26 TO -27C OVER THE NW BY 12Z SAT. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE INDICATES SFC TEMPS WL DIP AS LO AS -15F OR SO OVER THE W BY SUNRISE ON SAT. IF WINDS ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG... AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND CHILL ADVY MAY BE NECESARRY FOR THE WRN CWA. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LK SUP WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LES OF SIGNFICANCE. SAT...CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY COLD NW FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND DEPARTING SFC LO MOVING INTO QUEBEC. GENERAL ACYC NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LK SUP SHOULD LIMIT LES COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS...BUT GUSTY SFC NW WINDS WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS COULD CAUSE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LK SUP THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUED BY SIMILAR WX RECENTLY AS WELL AS ADVY WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG BEFORE THE H925 WINDS DIMINISH A BIT LATER. H85 TEMPS ON SAT...THE FIRST DAY OF MARCH...ARE FCST IN THE -25 TO -30C RANGE...SO TEMPS WL CONTINUE WELL BLO NORMAL...PROBABLY AOB RECORD LO DAILY MAXES MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 ABV RANGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PCPN ON NRN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCE FCST TO IMPACT THE LOWER LKS WITH SOME -SN MIGHT BRUSH THE FAR SCENTRAL AS THIS AREA WL BE UNDER SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS LK SUP AND ON WARM SIDE OF MID LVL FGEN BAND...BUT OVERALL ACYC FLOW/DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIR ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA WOULD LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. MAINTAINED GOING SCHC POPS. SAT NGT/SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM HI CENTER IN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER UPR CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN ARCTIC AND POLAR BRANCHES WL BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY...BUT STILL VERY COLD WX. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME LES/CLDS NEAR LK SUP YET ON SAT EVNG...INCRSG ACYC FLOW/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER SHOULD TEND TO END THIS WX. DEPENDING ON HI CLDS ON NRN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCE BRINGING SOME SN TO THE LOWER LKS...SAT NGT COULD BE QUITE FRIGID AGAIN WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS/PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH. SINCE THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD SUPPRESSING THIS CLD FARTHER S OVERNGT WITH H3 JET AXIS...TENDED TOWARD LO END OF GUIDANCE REFLECTED BY THE GOING FCST. INCRSG MARCH SUN ANGLE/ DAYLIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY REBOUND DURING THE DAY ON SUN...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL WITH FCST H85 TEMPS STILL HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -20C AT 00Z MON. SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPS BLO MODEL CONSENSUS ON SUN NGT GIVEN LGT WINDS/LO PWAT/MOCLR SKIES THAT WOULD BE FVRBL FOR LARGE DIURNAL TEMP DROP. SUSPECT THERE WL BE A NUMBER OF -20F TO PERHAPS -30F LO TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WL ALLOW A LARGE DIURNAL RECOVERY ON MON...BUT LIKE SUN MAX TEMPS WL BE STILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL. EXTENDED...SPRAWLING HI PRES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WL DOMINATE AT LEAST ON TUE INTO WED...BUT THERE ARE SGNFT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FCSTS ON HOW QUICKLY WAD CLDS AND PCPN WL RETURN TO THE UPR LKS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SO HELD ON TO THE CONSENSUS FCST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE CLDS/POPS...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 AN ARCTIC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRI MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DROP FROM MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON TO IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS LATE AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES BY LATE EVENING...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 429 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY ACT TO QUICKLY FORM ANOTHER ROUND OF THIN ICE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LINGERING OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR /AS SEEN ON THE LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE IMAGES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS MORNING/TODAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THIS EVENING. A LOW/TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE N PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ013-014. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 260905 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 405 AM EST WED FEB 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN FORM TODAY AS A COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO DRIVES LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE SNOW BAND WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL FORM FROM TIME TO TIME OSCILLATING DOWNING OF LAKE ONTARIO. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG A COLD FRONT...WITH THIS BATCH OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY DOWN THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL LAKES. FOR THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS A WESTERLY WIND ALIGNS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIALLY START THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION...THEN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AND PUSH THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SOUTHWARD...LARGELY ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY CLIP NE WAYNE COUNTY AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY LIGHT HOURS...FOR WHICH THE LATTER COUNTY WILL HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY TODAY AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HERE AS WELL. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REMAIN EXCELLENT AND SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THIS BAND OF SNOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA LOWER TO AROUND -25C WHICH WILL CREATE EXTREME LAKE INSTABILITY. WITHIN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO OVER 10K FEET WITH DEEP MOISTURE FOUND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND UP THROUGH 6-8K FEET. THOUGH WE ARE GETTING TOWARDS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN DIURNAL EFFECTS COULD BRING THE BAND TO MORE OF A CELLULAR LOOK...LAND CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO REMAIN STEADY. OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCES POPS...BUT HIGHER CHANCES POPS ACROSS THE HILLS FOR TODAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK WHICH WILL LIFT THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND BACK NORTHWARD. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL FALL SOME...DOWN TO AROUND 7-8K FEET AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WITH A SLIGHT DEPLETION IN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE SHOULD SEE A MINOR WEAKENING TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. THAT SAID WE COULD STILL SEE 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW FALL RATES AS THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHWARD WHICH WILL REQUIRE A REVISIT TO ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND ONLY RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO ABOUT THEIR INITIAL EARLY MORNING READINGS. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND LOCALLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A SOUTHWEST WIND COMBINED WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN CLOSE TO THE -15F ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLD SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TWO MAIN FEATURES...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND A CONSPICUOUSLY OUT OF PLACE POLAR VORTEX PARKED OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARDS TO THE LOWER 48. THIS UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT +PNA PATTERN HAS BEEN DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THIS WINTER AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST LATE FEBRUARY WEATHER THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN DECADES. MORE ON THAT IN MOMENT. THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE CASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT FIRST THE REGION WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS FROM A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM. A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT CLIPPER SFC LOW TRACKING BY TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL SWEEP YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR TO FOLLOW. THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A BURST OF SNOW ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AVERAGING 2 INCHES OR LESS. AS THE CLIPPER EXITS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...THE TABLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SET FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE RECENT EVENTS THOUGH...SO THIS SHOULD WORK AGAINST SNOW ACCUMS OFF LAKE ERIE... WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY EFFICIENT OF LATE IN PRODUCING SNOW OFF A NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR SITES SOUTHEAST OF LK ERIE FOR THE THURS AFTERNOON. FOR LAKE ONTARIO...THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL VEER FROM ABOUT 250 AT MIDDAY TO 290 BY EVENING. THE ENSUING LAKE RESPONSE WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS NORTH OF THE TUG HILL THAT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE PRIMED OFF GEORGIAN BAY...WHICH ACCORDING TO TUESDAYS MODIS IMAGERY IS SURPRISINGLY 50 PERCENT 'OPEN'. WHILE DIURNAL PROCESSES WILL LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE BAND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE CAP WILL BE RATHER HIGH AT ABOUT 13K FT. WHILE THERE IS ALREADY A LES WARNING IN EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO HOIST A LES WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC AND LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY... IT WILL WINDY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS PROMOTING FACE NUMBING WIND CHILLS AVERAGING 10 BELOW ZERO. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MERCURY DROPPING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO (MOST AREAS BELOW ZERO). WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE REDUCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS HAZARD WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AND IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. IN REGARDS TO THE LAKE EFFECT...A BAND OF LAKE SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WEAKENING LAKE SNOWS WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE ABOUT THIS LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY IS THAT IT WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. IN FACT...THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS AT BUF AND ROC WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS (11 BUF/12 ROC)...ESTABLISHED WAY BACK IN 1875. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID WESTERN STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KILL OFF THE RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL SO THAT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PCPN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. AN AREA OF ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE INVERTED SATURDAY MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL... THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL FEEL MORE TOLERABLE AS THE MERCURY WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GENESEE VALLEY AND SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER MAY EVEN BREAK THE 30 DEGREE MARK. THESE READINGS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY SNOW WILL THEN BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE ANABATIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE CHC POPS IN CONTINUITY TO LIKELY WITH THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHILE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD...A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL EXTEND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE RESULTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE ALSO ALLOWING A LITTLE MODIFICATION OF OUR AIRMASS. DO NOT BE FOOLED INTO THINKING THAT WE SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THOUGH. DAILY TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY MARCH VALUES...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE. THE SWATH OF STEADY SNOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ONLY NEGLIGIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WINTER STORM THAT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WHILE WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME STEADY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM (ESP SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES) SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO RE-INTENSIFY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT NEAR KART...THEN MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH TO OSWEGO COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR. THE LAKE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL IFR EAST OF THE LAKE... ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KART AND NORTH OF KSYR. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR. CIGS WILL BE MVFR MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PLUMES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND LOCALIZED IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. && .MARINE... A CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY OVER BOTH LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 9 FEET WILL BE FOUND ON THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE WITH THE WESTERLY WIND. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WIND IS LIKELY TO COME THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER CLIPPER PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW END GALES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006-008. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005-008. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEZ040-041. GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LOZ042-043-062-063. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065. GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042- 043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ044- 045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...THOMAS NEAR TERM...THOMAS SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...THOMAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 242122 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 322 PM CST MON FEB 24 2014 .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN 03Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE TIME LOW LEVELS SATURATE...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING IN. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW AND IT COULD END UP BEING JUST FLURRIES OR NOTHING AT ALL. THUS...DID NOT INCREASE POPS BEYOND CHANCE CATEGORY IN FAR SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. IF THE SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE...IT WILL ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES... BUT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVERNIGHT. .TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT CLIPPER. EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW THROUGH THE DAY. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD STILL BE IN SOME GRADIENT FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SO WE WON/T SEE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS. THE GFS IS LOOKING TOO COLD...AND HAS BEEN RUNNING COLD LATELY...DROPPING LOWS TO -15 AT KMSN FOR WED MORNING. THE BULK OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER. SO WILL USE MORE OF A CONSENSUS HERE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WIND EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DROP TO 20 TO 30 BELOW AND IF THIS HOLDS...WE/LL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...THAT LOW REACHES NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR BY EVENING. THIS WILL PUT US IN AN EVEN TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW THAT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. WE COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH. THE RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION IS RATHER STRONG. THIS COUPLED WITH LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON TO RISE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT PRETTY DARN COLD STILL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIND CHILL. HIGHS GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 10 ABOVE...GIVE OR TAKE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE LOW...BUT ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST WE COULD GET SOME FLURRIES GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD BE QUICK...JUST DURING THE EVENING. THEN COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN...BUT TEMPS WON/T BE QUITE AS COLD AS WED MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT WINDS AND WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN DROP TO 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAYBE A TOUCH COLDER. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THIS MIGHT BE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD OF THE WEEK AHEAD...MAINLY FOR WHAT THE GFS THINKS LOWS WILL DO FRIDAY MORNING. IT HAS LATCHED ON HARD TO A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH LOWS DROPPING TO 28 BELOW AT MADISON AND 36 BELOW ZERO AT LONE ROCK. WE SHOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS START TO ROLL IN TOWARD MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION FLOW TAKES SHAPE UPSTREAM. THE GFS IS ALONE ON THIS EXTREME COLD SOLUTION AND IT WOULD ECLIPSE ANYTHING WE/VE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. SO...HAVE MOSTLY DISCARDED IT AND WILL STICK CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MORE MODERATE MODELS. THE WARM ADVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS UP AROUND 850-700MB AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROF CLIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN IS WEAK AND NONDESCRIPT WITH MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE COLD CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY COULD BRING THE AREA MORE LIGHT SNOW...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT... WITH A CHANCE OF BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN WI MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. SNOW WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF MSN AND MKE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SNOW IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON BRISK WEST WINDS. && .MARINE... THE HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ICE OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM JUST NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND SHEBOYGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 241740 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1140 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014 .UPDATE... FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL PROBABLE FOR TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BEST CHANCE OF THE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. BEST CHANCE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION IS SOUTH OF MSN AND MKE. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR WITH THE SNOW IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN AND REFORM TODAY. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. HENCE STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN EXPECTED WITH SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY LESS SFC WIND MIXING. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON THREAT FOR -SN. UPSTREAM WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CARRIES THIS FEATURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NRN IL/SRN WI REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI OCCURS IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER INITIAL SURGE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT GOES INTO MOISTENING MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...BETTER FORCING HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE QPF DUE TO THIS DISJOINTEDNESS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND LAYER RH. SNOW LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 1 SO TRACE QPF MAY END UP PRODUCING UP TO ONE HALF INCH SNOWFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 20-23C WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SETTING UP...ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A 998MB OR SO LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. AN ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RADIATIONAL SETUP OF THE WEEK FOR RECORDS TO FALL. MEXMOS/GFS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR -20 TO -25 IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA. WILL LOWER TEMPS FROM THE ALLBLEND BUT NOT GOING THAT LOW...AT LEAST NOT YET ANYWAYS. SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER AND WINDS ARE PROGGD TO BE LIGHTER THAN THE PRIOR TWO NIGHTS... SO COLDEST AIR TEMPS LIKELY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY MORE QUESTIONABLE. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX PUTS SRN WI IN A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT POSITION. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH BEST VORT ACTION NORTH. LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED ON ECMWF. WHILE SOUNDINGS START OF QUITE DRY THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTENING VIA WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO MOISTEN THINGS UP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH GFS TO BRING QPF INTO SRN WI FOR PARTS OF FRI/FRI EVE. SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND POPS ON THIS. SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. ECMWF COLDER ON THE 925 TEMPS WITH READINGS OF -21 TO -26C. GFS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER. 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS NRN WI OR U.P. WENT WITH A DRY DAY WITH ALLBLEND POPS LOOKING GOOD IN THIS REGARD. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE TRENDING A LOW WELL SOUTH OF HERE THOUGH THE CWA IS BRUSHED WITH SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH STILL LOOKS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH A RENEWED STRONG JET CORE APPROACHES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT RETURNS. AGAIN...WILL GO WITH THE FAIRLY SMALL ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS TIME. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY WITH PATCHY -SN AND FLURRIES SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...AFT 03Z THROUGH 12Z. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT ENOUGH WEAK FORCING TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE IN ICE FREE AREAS. NEW HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN AND REFORM TODAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 241656 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1156 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THAT COULD APPROACH RECORD COLD TERRITORY FOR LOWS AND MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMING IN OVER THE LIMITED ICE COVERED LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OVER MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS LIMITED HOWEVER. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THINGS ARE ON TRACK. FAIRLY STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING WITH DELTA T/S BETWEEN THE LAKE SURFACE AND 850MB/S ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 17 DEGREES C. MOISTURE PER OUR VAD WIND PROFILE IS UP THROUGH ABOUT 5000FT SO RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR LAKE SNOWS. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TRACE AMOUNTS INLAND TOWARDS U.S. 127 TO A HALF INCH OR SO IN SPOTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED BOOST IN MOISTURE AND LIFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL FINE TUNE THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. ON A SIDE NOTE IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE MODIS SAT PIC FROM TODAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THIN ICE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE LAKE AND UP THE WESTERN SHORE TOWARDS MILWAUKEE. THIS WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON FETCH LENGTH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. OBVIOUSLY THE LAKE IS MUCH MORE OPEN THAN IT WAS A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE MODIS PASSES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 1710Z TODAY OR IN ABOUT 15 MINS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS ON DETERMINING LAKE EFFECT TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FCST WILL FEATURE FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHCS FOR THE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THESE HIGH CHCS TO YIELD LOW AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE PCPN WITH SOME EMBEDDED ENHANCED TIME FRAMES. LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FINALLY GOT GOING ACROSS THE CWFA LAST EVENING. IT TOOK THE UPPER JET CORE DIVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS ALOFT COOLING OFF ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE LAKE EFFECT. THE LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH BETTER LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF LOWER MI. WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND INCREASE A LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO C...ONLY ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH THE JET CORE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...INVERSION HTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AROUND 5K FT OR SO. LIMITING FACTORS FOR LAKE EFFECT TODAY ARE WEAK CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. WE WILL SEE A WEAKENING TREND OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE JET CORE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING WAVE. THE BEST PERIOD FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE INVERSION HTS ABOVE 10K FT LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUE. WE WILL HAVE THE MOISTURE IN THAT LAYER TO ASSIST IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE THE WNW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. AGAIN...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK SO WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT TO FALL. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS WE SEE COLDER AIR START TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO ALMOST -25C TO -28C BY 12Z WED. INVERSION HTS WILL COME DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FROM LATE TONIGHT/TUE...HOWEVER THE UPPER JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO WED AT 12Z WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FAVORABLE. THE FLOW WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST ON TUE AND SHIFT TO THE NW TUE EVENING. WE ACTUALLY SEE SOME BETTER CONVERGENCE START TO SHOW UP TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE SW WITH THE NW FLOW. THE PROBLEM BECOMES THAT THE DGZ BECOMES SO LOW WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...THAT FLAKE SIZE WILL BECOME QUITE SMALL. THIS WILL BECOME THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AT THAT TIME. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WED...HOWEVER WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BECOME EVEN MORE LIMITED. EVEN WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE REGION AT THAT TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY BECOMES SOMEWHAT ANTI-CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA. INVERSION HTS WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 2-3K FT WITH A DGZ THAT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. WED WILL BE OUR COLDEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. OUR RECORD MINIMUM HIGH IS 10 DEGREES IN GRR WHICH COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. THE RECORD MINIMUM HIGH FOR LAN IS 7 ABOVE, AND 12 ABOVE FOR MKG COULD ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 BITTER COLD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH RECORD COLD POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS AGREE IN BRINGING IN MINUS 25C AT 850 MB. THE SFC HIGH IS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SKIES COULD CLEAR...ALLOWING MINS TO PLUNGE WELL BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE. THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST PERIOD RELATIVE TO NORMAL OF THE ENTIRE WINTER. NO BIG STORMS ARE IN THE OFFING BUT LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW APPARENTLY REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THIS USHERS IN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WHICH SHOULD BRING SUBZERO READINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 643 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TODAY AROUND WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE. INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND LESS CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME LESSENING OF THE SNOW/ICE PACK...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXISTING SNOW/ICE PACK OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DUKE SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...MACZKO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 240927 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 327 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. HENCE STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN EXPECTED WITH SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY LESS SFC WIND MIXING. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON THREAT FOR -SN. UPSTREAM WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CARRIES THIS FEATURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NRN IL/SRN WI REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI OCCURS IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER INITIAL SURGE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT GOES INTO MOISTENING MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...BETTER FORCING HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE QPF DUE TO THIS DISJOINTEDNESS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND LAYER RH. SNOW LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 1 SO TRACE QPF MAY END UP PRODUCING UP TO ONE HALF INCH SNOWFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 20-23C WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SETTING UP...ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A 998MB OR SO LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. AN ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. .THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RADIATIONAL SETUP OF THE WEEK FOR RECORDS TO FALL. MEXMOS/GFS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR -20 TO -25 IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA. WILL LOWER TEMPS FROM THE ALLBLEND BUT NOT GOING THAT LOW...AT LEAST NOT YET ANYWAYS. SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER AND WINDS ARE PROGGD TO BE LIGHTER THAN THE PRIOR TWO NIGHTS... SO COLDEST AIR TEMPS LIKELY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY MORE QUESTIONABLE. .FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX PUTS SRN WI IN A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT POSITION. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH BEST VORT ACTION NORTH. LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED ON ECMWF. WHILE SOUNDINGS START OF QUITE DRY THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTENING VIA WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO MOISTEN THINGS UP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH GFS TO BRING QPF INTO SRN WI FOR PARTS OF FRI/FRI EVE. SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND POPS ON THIS. .SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. ECMWF COLDER ON THE 925 TEMPS WITH READINGS OF -21 TO -26C. GFS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER. 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS NRN WI OR U.P. WENT WITH A DRY DAY WITH ALLBLEND POPS LOOKING GOOD IN THIS REGARD. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE TRENDING A LOW WELL SOUTH OF HERE THOUGH THE CWA IS BRUSHED WITH SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH STILL LOOKS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH A RENEWED STRONG JET CORE APPROACHES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT RETURNS. AGAIN...WILL GO WITH THE FAIRLY SMALL ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY WITH PATCHY -SN AND FLURRIES SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...AFT 03Z THROUGH 12Z. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT ENOUGH WEAK FORCING TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE IN ICE FREE AREAS. NEW HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN AND REFORM TODAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 232139 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 439 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN ROTATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REPRESENTED ON THE 12Z KINL SOUNDING. WITH THE OPEN WATER OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -22C...HAVE BEEN SEEING LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE OVER NORTHERN ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES. THERE WAS ONE STRONGER BAND THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS. WHERE THE RADAR CAN SAMPLE IT IT WAS INDICATING SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 0.5-1 INCH AN HOUR SOUTH EAST OF STANNARD ROCK WHERE IT HAS BEEN AIDED BY ANOTHER AREA OF OPEN WATER. AS WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS BAND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DID GET A REPORT FROM WHITEFISH POINT OF AN ESTIMATED 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW. WOULD EXPECT AMOUNTS THAT HIGH IN NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY WITH THE MOVEMENT BUT THINK AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ARE REASONABLE SINCE THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...IT WILL SWEEP A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SFC-850MB TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE TROUGHS WILL ACT TO PROVIDE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND TURN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS OF -23C WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF OVER THE LAKE INSTABILITY WHERE THERE IS OPEN WATER (INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 6-7KFT). THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE ICE COVERAGE...BUT BASED OFF YESTERDAY/S MODIS IMAGE AND LOCATION OF LAKE CLOUDS TODAY...IT APPEARS THERE IS DECENT OPEN WATER FROM TWO HARBORS MINNESOTA TO ISLE ROYALE...THEN EAST-NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND TOWARDS MARQUETTE. WHERE ICE CAN BE MADE OUT...THERE HAS BEEN DECENT MOVEMENT WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30KTS. WITH WEAKENING WINDS INCREASING THE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE 20-30MI AREA OF OPEN WATER OVER THE WEST TONIGHT...THINK THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO OCCUR FROM CALUMET SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY AND LOW DEFINITE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. NORTH OF CALUMET IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO MORE ICE BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THUNDER BAY AND SMALLER GAPS IN THE FIRST 10-15MI SOUTHEAST FROM ISLE ROYALE. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE THE POPS LOWER INTO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. GUSTY THIS EVENING (TO 35MPH)...BUT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEADING TO IMPROVING VISIBILITIES FROM THE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SINCE WE ARE STILL GETTING REPORTS FROM OBS/WEBCAMS/SPOTTERS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2MI AT TIMES...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL COVER THE EVENING TRAVEL PERIOD BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FARTHER EAST...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LUCE AND THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ALGER COUNTY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE OPEN WATER THAT LIKELY COVERS A DECENT PORTION OF LSZ265. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND PROBABLY SOME LAND BREEZE INFLUENCE...WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT BAND AFFECTING THE COUNTY AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONED THE BAND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO AROUND AND JUST EAST OF MUNISING AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH A POTENTIAL FETCH OF 80MI AND SOME UPSTREAM MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND STALLS IN AN AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. EAST OF THERE...THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT AMOUNTS AND ONLY HAVE VALUES IN THE 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCH RANGE. WILL START TO SEE THE AFFECT OF RIDGING UPSTREAM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES (ALONG WITH SOME DRYING AND BACKING WINDS) FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW WIND CHILLS...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LES FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF W TO NW FLOW OVER GAPS IN THE CONSIDERABLE LAKE ICE COVER. MON NIGHT...THE STRONGEST 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND LOWER LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH IA INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL. WRLY FLOW LES BANDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS WINDS VEER TO WNW BEHIND A WEAK SFC TROUGH. WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF OPEN WATER AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 5K FT...MENTIONED LIKELY POPS BUT WITH FCST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ONLY OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO. TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHRTWV WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING IN EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW PUSHING THE LIGHT LES OVER A GRATER PORTION OF THE ERN CWA. WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -4F TO -14F RANGE...WIND CHILLS SHOULD ALSO FALL INTO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. WED-FRI...A STRONGER SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AS THE POLAR TROUGH MOVES INTO NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NW TO NNW BEHIND THIS FEATURE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -31C THU. WITH THE STRONGER NW WINDS...THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING INTO THE -25 TO -35 RANGE EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY SOME MODIFICATION OVER THE MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS BY FRI AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD DROP AT LEAST INTO THE -15 TO -25 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME -30S EVEN POSSIBLE FOR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SAT-SUN...THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS BUT WITH THE POLAR TROUGH LINGERING NEAR JAMES BAY...ANOTHER BOUT OF LOWER 850 MB TEMPS AND HIGHER WINDS MAY MOVE IN BY SAT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CONTINUED COLD ON SUN WITH THE ARCTIC RIDGE DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES. BY THE WEEKEND...THE ICE COVER IS LIKELY TO SOLIDIFY...REDUCING LES CHANCES/AMOUNTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 COLD AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME OPEN WATER OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE WEST WIND SNOW BELTS AND LARGELY AFFECTING KCMX FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AT KIWD AND HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES. BUT THIS TURN IN THE WINDS COULD INFLUENCE KCMX SNOWFALL...AS THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN ICE SHADOW DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE. MAINLY IMPROVED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE WEAKENING WINDS AND IF ICE COVERAGE IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AT KSAW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ISN/T TOO FAVORABLE FOR LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH DID LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HAVE A FEELING THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LEAD TO VALUES RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF VFR/MVFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 THE WEAKENING LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LEAD TO GRADUALLY DECREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEN SEEING THE GALES PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE STANNARD ROCK AND GRANITE ISLAND OBS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UPSTREAM OBS GENERALLY IN THE 30KT RANGE...WOULD EXPECT THE EASTERN SITES TO COME DOWN SHORTLY. THUS...WILL ALLOW THE GALE WARNING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AND HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE WESTERN LAKE. EVEN WITH THIS DIMINISHMENT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 231606 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 .UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO TODAY\S FORECAST. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LATEST MODELS STILL INDICATE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH. COLD...DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZES RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW. SLIGHT INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE SPOKE ROTATES AROUND HUDSON BAY AREA UPPER LOW. WEAK PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI AND CLIPS NORTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING AND SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUD INCREASE INTO NORTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MIXINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORT SHEAR ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST. VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. ALL THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON KEEPING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO OUR WEST. SO THE DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. CORE OF COLDEST 850 TEMPS NUDGE NORTHEAST AS WELL WITH 850 RIDGE NUDGING CLOSER. SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER WHICH SLACKENS GRADIENT. WINDS EASE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 925 TEMPS AROUND -12 TO -15C WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. GFS HAS TRENDED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF HAS DROPPED QPF FROM EARLIER RUNS. QPF NUMBERS VARY FROM TRACE/NEAR NIL ON THE NAM AND GFS TO NEAR 0.02 ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER. SO CAME UP WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.2 IN THE NORTHEAST TO UP TO 0.8 IN IN THE PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTH...THOUGH THAT MAY BE TOO ROBUST GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYS END. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO 20-23C WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SETTING UP. WHILE SOME EASING OF GRADIENT TOWARDS MORNING...STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A 10 KNOT WIND IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH A BIT HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE EAST. TEMPS WON/T DROP LIKE IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL SETUP...BUT THE PURE ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DROPS IN TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. TRENDED TEMPS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE LEARNING MORE TOWARDS A MIX OF ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED AND ALLBLEND. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE DRIER AND COLDER ECMWF IS PREFERRED THOUGH GFS STILL SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH WITH MODIFIED TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW STUCK WITH ALLBLEND. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS LOOK LESS OF A FACTOR THIS PERIOD...SO WHILE LIKELY STILL QUITE CHILLY...NOT AS BAD AS PRIOR WITH CORE OF HIGH DRAWING CLOSER. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW CU MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVE. MARINE...LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SATURDAY SHOWS ALL OF THE THICKER ICE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND MID-LAKE WATERS HAS BROKEN UP DUE TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER SOME THIN ICE HAS REFORMED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE AND OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM KENOSHA NORTH TO EAST OF MILWAUKEE AND AROUND PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO GET REINFORCED...EXPECT MORE ICE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEK. WEST WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED MOSTLY BELOW 22 KNOTS HENCE WL CANCEL ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS AND IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONE /LMZ643/. HOWEVER BORDERLINE SITUATION WITH LIMITED CRAFT ON WATER DUE TO PATCHY ICE...SO WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WL MENTION OCNL G25KTS IN NSH HOWEVER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SM/DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 231005 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 505 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS THE REGION REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN THE SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM SW/SCENTRAL CANADA. STILL HAVING 30 TO NEAR 35KT WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND 40KT WIND GUSTS STILL AT STANNARD ROCK AT 09Z. LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DID SHOW PLENTY OF OPEN WATER...OR NEARLY OPEN WATER OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN UP TO ISLE ROYALE...AND JUST E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS/. ANOTHER POCKET OF LIKELY CLEARING IS E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH WINDS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DIMINISHING...WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR THE TYPICAL W TO WNW FLOW AREAS TODAY. CMX HAS BEEN INDICATING LESS THAN 1SM SINCE 23/02Z...WITH NO REAL SIGNS OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE KEWEENAW SLIGHTLY AFTER LOOKING AT THE PRIOR 6HR PRECIP AMOUNTS...WHICH LOOKED A BIT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...STILL EXPECT LES TO PERSIST...AIDED BY A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AND THE MORE BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WNW WINDS TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NW TONIGHT...WITH LES SNOW BANDS MOVING MORE ONSHORE E OF MARQUETTE AS STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2IN OF SNOW FROM IWD UP THROUGH THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NE OF LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO ERY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 BIGGEST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE WITH THE RETURN OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR AND LIGHT-MODERATE LES. FOR LES CONSIDERATIONS...SOME BREAK UP OF LAKE SUPERIOR ICE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE STRONG WLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED LES ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MON WILL SEE DIMINISHING NW FLOW LES POPS AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS DECREASE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. WILL SEE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EACH ONE PULLING DOWN MORE COLD AIR UNTIL A POLAR LOW MOVES TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 12Z THU. 850MB TEMPS AOB -30C MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN. THU LOOKS TO SEE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE COLDEST. WILL LIKELY BREAK RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...AND POSSIBLY SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...BUT GREATER OF THE CONFIDENCE VERY UNCERTAIN SO DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 WITH WEAKENING LOW PRES REMAINING IN THE VCNTY OF FAR NRN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO RIDGE SE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...BUT ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE. WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30KT AT KCMX OVERNIGHT THRU THE AFTN...BLSN WILL LIKELY KEEP PREVAILING VIS IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATION WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS AS WELL AS FALLING TO VLIFR. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL BE OCNL -SHSN AT KCMX...WHICH WILL ASSIST THE LOWER VISIBILITIES. DISTURBANCE SHOULD INCREASE -SHSN FREQUENCY TODAY...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN VIS FALLING MORE FREQUENTLY TO BLO 1/2SM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NW AND DIMINISH SOME... RESULTING IN LESS BLSN. AT KIWD/KSAW...SRN EDGE OF STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS WILL BE NEAR KIWD OVERNIGHT WHILE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. DEEPER MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE ROTATING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK AS WELL AS SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES. AFTER THE STRONG WINDS OF RECENT DAYS...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN AT KIWD THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN TODAY TO SINK ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. W GALES 35-40KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR IN BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW...AND NEARING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NW. LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BROADEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ240>246-263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 230922 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 322 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH. COLD...DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZES RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW. SLIGHT INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE SPOKE ROTATES AROUND HUDSON BAY AREA UPPER LOW. WEAK PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI AND CLIPS NORTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING AND SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUD INCREASE INTO NORTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MIXINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORT SHEAR ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST. VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. ALL THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON KEEPING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO OUR WEST. SO THE DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. CORE OF COLDEST 850 TEMPS NUDGE NORTHEAST AS WELL WITH 850 RIDGE NUDGING CLOSER. SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER WHICH SLACKENS GRADIENT. WINDS EASE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 925 TEMPS AROUND -12 TO -15C WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. .MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. GFS HAS TRENDED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF HAS DROPPED QPF FROM EARLIER RUNS. QPF NUMBERS VARY FROM TRACE/NEAR NIL ON THE NAM AND GFS TO NEAR 0.02 ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER. SO CAME UP WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.2 IN THE NORTHEAST TO UP TO 0.8 IN IN THE PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTH...THOUGH THAT MAY BE TOO ROBUST GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYS END. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO 20-23C WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SETTING UP. WHILE SOME EASING OF GRADIENT TOWARDS MORNING...STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A 10 KNOT WIND IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH A BIT HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE EAST. TEMPS WON/T DROP LIKE IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL SETUP...BUT THE PURE ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DROPS IN TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. TRENDED TEMPS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE LEARNING MORE TOWARDS A MIX OF ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED AND ALLBLEND. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE DRIER AND COLDER ECMWF IS PREFERRED THOUGH GFS STILL SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH WITH MODIFIED TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW STUCK WITH ALLBLEND. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS LOOK LESS OF A FACTOR THIS PERIOD...SO WHILE LIKELY STILL QUITE CHILLY...NOT AS BAD AS PRIOR WITH CORE OF HIGH DRAWING CLOSER. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW CU MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVE. && .MARINE...LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SATURDAY SHOWS ALL OF THE THICKER ICE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND MID-LAKE WATERS HAS BROKEN UP DUE TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER SOME THIN ICE HAS REFORMED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE AND OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM KENOSHA NORTH TO EAST OF MILWAUKEE AND AROUND PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO GET REINFORCED...EXPECT MORE ICE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEK. WEST WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED MOSTLY BELOW 22 KNOTS HENCE WL CANCEL ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS AND IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONE /LMZ643/. HOWEVER BORDERLINE SITUATION WITH LIMITED CRAFT ON WATER DUE TO PATCHY ICE...SO WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WL MENTION OCNL G25KTS IN NSH HOWEVER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 222111 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 411 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY HAS BECOME STATIONARY NEAR CAPE HENRIETTA MARIA BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND JAMES BAY. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM A HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY. THUS...THE WINDS AND RESULTING BLOWING SNOW (MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW) WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SPILLING INTO THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT THE GUSTY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. EVEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WINDS AT KCMX HAVE FALLEN TO ONLY 35-40MPH. UPSTREAM AT ISLE ROYALE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES AND WITH MODELS SHOWING GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH BETWEEN 06-12Z...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. SINCE MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS DIMINISHED AT KCMX...SEEING MORE OF A SPOTTY NATURE TO THE WORST VISIBILITIES ON WEBCAMS AND THE KCMX OBS. THUS...THINKING THAT THE GOING ENDING TIME FOR THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS REASONABLE AND THE EVENING SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO LET IT EXPIRE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER A ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THE LINGERING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OR IF IT COULD BE COVERED BY AN SPS. ALMOST LEANING TOWARDS AN SPS...BUT WILL ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO SEE HOW VISIBILITIES ARE DOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN DECIDE. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LITTLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON WEBCAMS IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES...HAVE CANCELLED THE EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THERE. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THIS TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON LAKE EFFECT. WITH RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -17C AND MODELS SHOWING THAT FALLING TO -23C BY 00Z MONDAY...THERE IS PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IF WATER IS PRESENT ON LAKE SUPERIOR. TODAY/S MODIS IMAGE SHOWS SOME OPEN WATER THAT HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. THEREFORE...WITH THE WESTERLY 925MB WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE FOCUSED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THOSE PATCHES OF OPEN WATER. THIS MAINLY AFFECTS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SLOWLY TRANSITIONED POPS TOWARDS THAT DIRECTION. DIDN/T PUT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO) INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS LIKELY LIMITING FETCH ACROSS THE OPEN WATER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WED-FRI WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO FILL SUNDAY NIGHT THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST BY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PBL WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS VEERING OF WIND COMBINED WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER WEST PERHAPS TO THE ALGER/MARQUETTE COUNTY BORDER. IN ADDITION...LES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FLUXES OVER THE SEMI-OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ONE WOULD THINK THAT WITH THE WIND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT THE ICE ON THE LAKE HAS BROKEN UP SOME. IN FACT...TODAY/S MODIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEVERAL LARGER BREAKS HAVE OPENED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE AS WELL AS EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A LITTLE MINI BAND OF ENHANCED LES JUST EAST OF THE KEWEENAW ORIENTED INTO FAR WESTERN ALGER COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS THE WINDS VEER TO NW. FOR NOW...WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 PCT ACROSS ALL OF ALGER INTO LUCE COUNTIES AND RAISE POPS TO CHC CATEGORY IN ERN MQT COUNTY. BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...LIGHT LES WILL CONTINUE IN THE KEWEENAW AND INTO ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR IF FLUXES WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LES OFF THE LAKE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS. WINDS BACK TO WNW TUE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANY LES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW. THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WED-SAT...CONTINUES TO LOOK EXTREMELY COLD. THE 12Z NWP CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -30 TO -34C BY THU EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING...THUS DROPPING SFC TEMPS TO -20F OR LOWER. IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS SIMILAR TO EARLY MARCH 2003 WHERE NWS MQT SAW A MIN TEMP OF -31F. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING -20 TO -25 BELOW. PERHAPS SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BY SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT 850MB WARMING...BUT THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE ARCTIC HIGH STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...APPARENT TEMPS WILL NOT FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT INTO THE WEEKEND. JUST TO NOTE...THE LATEST CFS /CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM/ GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF MARCH WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES... && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KCMX...TO 35-40KTS...THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...VISIBILITIES MAY TRY TO COME UP SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 1/2SM RANGE. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT KCMX TOO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL ASSIST THE LOWER VISIBILITIES. FOR KIWD/KSAW...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERED/BROKEN CU FIELD BUT EXPECT THAT TO DIMINISH ONCE DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. THEN THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND COULD PRODUCE A MORE SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40KTS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND LEAD TO WINDS DROPPING TO 30KTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>246- 263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 220956 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 456 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 417 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 THE OCCLUDED LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SFC PRESSURE OF 978MB. THE LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO AROUND 992MB. THIS PLACES THE CWA BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS STATES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS...THE RIDGE TO THE SW WILL BE BUILDING SO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA ONLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO CONDITIONS BE NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS AND PRECIP. AT THE PRESENT...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 45MPH AT CMX AND 30MPH AT IWD...WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. VISIBILITIES ARE STILL LOW OVER THE WRN CWA FROM THE BLOWING SNOW...AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY QUITE GUSTY TODAY DECIDED TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL 00Z SUN. BLOWING SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WRN U.P. TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY TO A LESSER DEGREE AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO DID NOT EXTEND HAZARDS BEYOND TODAY. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MINOR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER WRN UPPER MI...BUT THAT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE BLOWING SNOW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 NO LARGE CHANGE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT A RETURN TO THE DEEP FREEZE IS COMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND CANADIAN YUKON BUILDING WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER SKANDINAVIA AND NORTHWEST RUSSIA. RESULT IS UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH POLE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN ACROSS GREAT LAKES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY BUT CORE OF COLDEST TEMPS SLATED FOR NEXT THURSDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS DROP BLO -30C. LIKELY THAT BOTH THESE DAYS WILL NOT FEATURE SOME SORT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER CWA. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP TROUGH ALOFT FINALLY RELAXES GRIP ALLOWING WRAPPED UP SFC LOW TO UNRAVEL AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY COME DOWN TO MORE MANAGEABLE LEVELS. WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WILL SWING A SFC TROUGH VEERING WINDS FROM WNW TO NW...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT REARRANGE THE ONGOING LGT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET BOOST ON SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND ALSO AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO H7 WORKS THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND INVERSIONS RISE UP ABOVE 5KFT. MOST RECENT ANALYSIS AND MODIS IMAGE FOR ICE COVER INDICATED DECENT AREA OF OPEN WATER OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE NORTH OF MQT/P53 AND TO NW OF WHITEFISH POINT. RADAR SHOWING HIGHER ECHOES WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BAND THERE CURRENTLY SO THAT OPEN WATER MAY STILL BE THERE. LOW-LEVEL WIND FM WNW WILL TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF SUCH AN ORIENTED FETCH OF OPEN WATER...SO AN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BAND COULD TRY TO FORM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. 925-850MB TEMPS AT OR BLO -18C LEAD TO MINIMAL DGZ WITHIN THAT LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO SMALL FLAKES AND LOW VSBY COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MUNISING AND TO THE NORTH OF NEWBERRY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG MOST OF LK SUPERIOR SEEM REASONBALE WITH SOME PATCHY BLSN AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FARTHER INLAND WILL BE CLOUDS WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR AND/OR THE MID CLOUDS FM THE SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS WILL HOLD UP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FAR WEST AND SW/SCNTRL MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO HAVE WIND CHILLS NEARING ADVY CRITERIA. WINDS BACK ENOUGH MONDAY AFTN TO PUSH LAKE EFFECT BACK TOWARD THE SHORE. MID CLOUDS WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH SOME LGT QPF FM THE WAVE WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHUNT THEIR QPF FARTHER SOUTH. GFS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UVM FAR ENOUGH DOWN IN THE SOUNDING TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME LGT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE QUALITY IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE FLOW WILL ALREADY BE ONSHORE. INVERSIONS CHANGE LITTLE THOUGH SO EVEN WHERE WINDS WILL BE FLOWING ACROSS OPEN WATER AREAS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. YET ANOTHER SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER TUESDAY WITH WHAT IS THE FIRST PUSH OF THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -28C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT AROUND TO MORE NW FAVORED SNOWBELTS AND SHOW AN UPTICK TO THE INTENSITY WITH BEST SHOT AT SOME ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN SNOWBELTS DUE TO THE UPSTREAM OPEN WATER. INVERSIONS RESPOND WITH THIS WAVE...POSSIBLY UP TO 7KFT IN THE EAST. AGAIN...GIVEN THE ABSCENT DGZ FROM LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW VSBY DUE TO THE SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS AND BLSN. ARRIVAL OF THIS FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR ALSO RESULTS IN LOWER WIND CHILL READINGS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS BACK MORE W/SW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT BRINGS IN PRIMARY COLD ADVECTION. GFS/GEM-NH INDICATE SFC TROUGH AND BITTER COLD ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS DELAYED TIL LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LIKELY EITHER SCNEARIO WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL HEADLINE ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY FRIDAY MORNING TOO. LAKE EFFECT RESURGES TOO IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. BEYOND THE EXTENDED...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME KIND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...MORE COLD IN ITS WAKE TO START THE NEW MONTH. HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT ALL WORKS OUT BUT IT CERTAINLY FITS THE PERSISTENCE IDEA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 AS DEEP LO PRES CONTINUES SLOWLY TO THE NE THRU ONTARIO THIS FCST PERIOD...THE GUSTY W WINDS BUFFETING UPR MI WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/VLIFR CONDITIONS BLO LANDING MINIMUMS WL PLAGUE CMX THRU 12Z SAT BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AS THE WINDS AND ACCOMPANYING BLSN SLOWLY SUBSIDE. AT IWD...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW/SHSN AND BLSN WL ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT SAW...DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF FLOW AT THAT SITE SHOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE THRU THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 417 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT W GALES OVER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE SLOWLY WEAKENS. AFTER THIS TIME...NO GALES ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-009. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>251- 263>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 220928 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 328 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. TODAYS FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSES ON THREAT OF --SN OVER FAR SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS WEAK UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE/IA AREA MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. KFSD 88D HAS SMALL AREAS OF DBZ EXCEEDING 30 JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RADAR...LIKELY ASSOCD WITH -SN REACHING GROUND. 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES LIE ACROSS SRN WI AND THE REGION...HOWEVER WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SURFACE REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE IL BORDER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALSO STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTH. FEW FLURRIES COULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH...BUT FOR NOW WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST AND BEEF UP THE CLOUDS FOR A TIME OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. GUSTINESS TO PERSIST TODAY MOST AREAS DUE TO LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MIXINESS. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME MIXINESS IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE. WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 13 BELOW. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A PRONOUNCED ELONGATED VORT AXIS. COLDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED WITH PERSISTENT WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 925 MILLIBARS. WITH RIDGE AXIS STILL IN THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING GRADIENT TO KEEP A STEADY WEST BREEZE IN PLACE. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH BRIEF AND BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING INTO THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST SO LIGHTER WIND REGIME. MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK FURTHER ON PRECIP INTO SW CWA. THE 00Z ECMWF THE LATEST TO GO THE SLOWER ROUTE. SO WILL GO DRY CWA WIDE. .MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI WITH MODERATE UPTICK IN 700-300 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ISENTROPIC FORCING DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE AND UPPER JET CORE POSITIONED WITH MORE OF A LEFT REAR PLACEMENT FOR SRN WI. MOISTURE INFLUX NOT GREAT EITHER...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FAVORING MORE THE GEM/GFS QPF NUMBERS. NAM LOOKS TOO DRY...IN FACT NAM IS COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS POINT. ECMWF LOOKS TOO GENEROUS ON QPF. EXPECTING A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCALES. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD ADVECTION DOMINATES WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -20 TO -25C THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONCERNED ABOUT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY SCENARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH 925 TEMPS DROPPING TO -22 TO -24C WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COLDER GUIDANCE BUT ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAIRLY MIXED WITH 925 WINDS RUNNING 20-30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS CWA WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW THE -20F THRESHOLD TUE NGT/WED MRNG. SHORTWAVE RIDES TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. BRIEF 850 WAA WITH STG 50 KNOT SIGNAL SHOWING UP. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 10 ABOVE. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SO BRISK WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW MODELS DIVERGE THIS PERIOD. GFS BRINGS A QUICK REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A WAA REGIME WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE COLD BLAST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT KEEPS THE DRY LOOK. WILL STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND APPROACH AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES AS WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH BUT ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY...BUT STILL SOME GUSTINESS WILL CONTINUE. && .MARINE...LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 22 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY. HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM FRIDAY SHOWS THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE THICKER ICE AREAS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND MELT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE RETURN OF COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST AREAS OF THIN ICE TO REFORM. WILL ADD SOME FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO THIS NEARSHORE FORECAST BUT WILL TEMPER HEIGHTS DUE TO LIKELY AREAS OF THIN ICE. REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 220959 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 459 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCH OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN WELL-CHANNELLED FLOW IS ADVANCING IN FROM NRN OH. HOWEVER...THE LIFT CAUSED BY THIS FEATURE IS EXTREMELY WEAK. THE MOISTURE IS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-FEB. THE LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS MOVING ALONG VERY QUICKLY AND THE SIGN OF ADVECTION SHOULD FLIP AROUND NOON AND THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD SCOOT TO THE EAST. THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A 20-30 POP OF -SHSN THIS MORNING IN THE NW...AND JUST A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN IN THE NRN MTS. EVEN THAT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...AND TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THRU THE DAY TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. BUT CONTINUITY AND NOD TO THE SREF POPS/QPF KEEP IT IN THE FCST. WINDS MAY STILL GUST INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND WRN HIGHLANDS TODAY. BUT...THE WORRY FOR A WIND ADVY IS LOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ANOTHER VERY FAST-MOVING WAVE MOVES IN EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH AS THE PREV STREAK. THIS ONE SEEMS MORE LIKE A REAL FRONT...BUT ALOFT. THERE IS A LOWERED PRESSURE/TROUGH AT THE SFC DOWN OVER THE OHIO RIVER. BUT THE LIGHT AND MOSTLY-FROZEN OVERNIGHT PRECIP REMAINS 100-200 SM TO THE NORTH. THE 8H TEMP ISOPLETHS DO BUCKLE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS THE STREAK MOVES BY. PRECIP IS MORE-PRONOUNCED ON THE SREF AND GFS SOLNS THAN THE NAM. BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE VERY MINOR. THE TEMPS AT NIGHT AND THE ANTICIPATED FORCING IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR PROGS AND FCST. SO...WILL BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATG FOR THE NW MTS FOR TONIGHT. BUT THE WAVE PASSES QUICKLY...AND SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE UPSLOPE OF THE MTS WANES QUICKLY. SUNDAY COULD HOLD LIGHT/MIXED PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN IN THE SRN TIER LATE...BUT MORE THAN 30 POPS NOT ADVISABLE IN SUCH A WEAKLY FORCED EVENT. ANY MEASURABLE ACCUMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTS. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE A DUSTING...BUT TEMPS ARE MARGINAL IN THE CENTRAL MTS/POCONOS AND MILD OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S IN THE S...BUT HOLD IN THE M30S N AFTER A SUB-FREEZING START TO THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF THAT WAVE/TROUGH ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST ATTEMPT - OF MANY TO COME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS - BY THE ATMOSPHERE TO PULL THE COLDER AIR BACK IN. THE MILD TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MELT THE SNOW PACK AND KEEP THE WATERWAYS HIGH...BUT NOT NEAR FLOOD ANYWHERE. THE ICE ON THE WATERWAYS WILL ALSO BE MELTING SOME...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ICE JAMS DOES EXIST. BUT THE WATER LEVELS ARE LOW ENOUGH ON THE BIG RIVERS/CREEKS TO MAKE WORRY FOR FLOODING LOW ON THEM. IT WILL BE THE SMALL STREAMS WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER THREAT FOR ICE JAMS. THE THREAT IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH NOR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE LONG-TERM...AS A RIDGE RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG-TERM...THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GEFS DROPS 850 TEMPS TO -1SD ON MONDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. A SECOND SYSTEM COULD SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS IS LOW AT THIS RANGE. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2SD FOR THU AND FRI...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD END TO NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS OF 09Z. EARLIER FOG CONCERNS AT KLNS HAVE DIMINISHED...AS DWPT DEPRESSION NOW AT 8F AND 08Z MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS NO FOG IN THE VICINITY. MAIN AVAITION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LLWS. A CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LGT WINDS AT THE SFC...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...ESP THE W MTNS. MDL DATA SUPPORTS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BREAK UP THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION BY LATE MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT OF LLWS BUT ALLOWING GUSTY WSW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC DURING THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 25KTS ACROSS EASTERN PA AND 30-35KTS ACROSS THE W MTNS. OCNL LIGHT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONT STALLING OVER THE AIRSPACE. OUTLOOK... SUN...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...ESP SOUTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 210954 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 454 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 MAIN POINTS THROUGH TODAY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER THAT. STRONG W-SW WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE STRONG SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF IRON MOUNTAIN AND AT LEAST 976MB DEEP...WHICH IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVATION WITH THE SYSTEM AT IMT. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z TODAY WHILE DEEPENING SOME...TO FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z TODAY AND INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT. MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS NOW OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND W OF UPPER MI WHERE THE TROWAL FEATURE IS LOCATED. MOSTLY SEEING MODERATE SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI...WITH BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO REDUCED VIS FROM ELY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30MPH. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER MI HAS MAINLY SEEN LIGHT SNOW...BUT LOWER TERRAIN AREAS AND MUCH OF ERN UPPER MI HAS SEEN MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS TIME...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IN THE CWA IS SNOW AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW SHORTLY AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIRMASS EXITS TO THE E AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH SOME OVER WRN AND ERN UPPER MI TODAY WHILE CENTRAL UPPER MI SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE END OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE WSW. WINDS NEAR THE NRN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SFC LOW PASSES AND A PRESSURE RISE CENTER MOVES INTO CENTRAL WI. EXPECT WINDS FROM NEAR GARDEN CORNER TO THE E TO GUST UP TO 55MPH TODAY...AND GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP AND LIMITED BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL /DUE TO THE SNOW PACK GETTING WARM OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MIXED PRECIP LAST NIGHT/ TODAY DECIDED TO CONVERT WINTER STORM WARNING FOR DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E...CONVERTED WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GIVEN LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY BUT STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD WARNING OVER WRN UPPER MI THE SAME...BUT LONG TERM FORECASTER DID EXTEND THE BLIZZARD. THE BLIZZARD STILL LOOKS GOOD AS E WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25 MPH COMBINED LIGHT SNOW IS REDUCING VIS TO 1/4SM AT TIMES...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 50MPH EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED SNOWFALL AND INCREASING WLY WINDS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE SEVERE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 975MB LIFTS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA. DID EXTEND BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THOUGH AS FREQUENT GUSTS REMAIN OVER 40 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW FROM THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE DIMINSIHING...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -16C TO LEAD TO WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODIS IMAGE FROM THURSDAY AFTN SHOWED SOME GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND EXPECT MORE OPEN WATER TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG WEST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP BY BKN CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS VICINITY OF OVER HUDSON BAY AND JAMES BAY. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER STAY FROM THE WEST. SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS UP TO 5KFT AND THIS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INVERSION DOES LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN INCREASES AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -20C. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SUPPLEMENTAL MOISTURE ADD TO THE LAKE EFFECT THOUGH SO EVEN THOUGH CONVERGENT WEST WINDS MAY BE HIGHER...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT OPEN WATER AND ENHANCING MOISTURE/FORCING SHOULD KEEP IT IN CHECK. GIVEN THE WNW-W WINDS MAIN AREAS THAT WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT ARE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN /WHITE PINE TO ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES/ AND ALSO THE SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN CWA TO THE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. AS IT IS TO START THE WEEKEND...MAIN ISSUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POOR VSBY AT TIMES DURING GUSTY WINDS. ALSO WITH TIME...DGZ BECOMES LESS A FACTOR SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SMALLER WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO REDUCE VSBY. DO NOT FORSEE HAVING TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING ANY MORE BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MIGHT NEED AN ADVY FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOWER VSBY AND IF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPAND WITH THE OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER. TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY HOW THAT PLAYS OUT RIGHT NOW. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY BLO ZERO AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. APPEARS WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT IS ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY FOR WNW AND MAYBE EVEN NW FLOW AREAS. CONTINUE TO DRAG THE CHANCY POPS INTO MORE OF THE NORTHERN U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...LARGER SCALE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SO AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WINDS ALSO START TO COME DOWN REDUCING THE BLSN HAZARD. CORE OF COLDEST AIR DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HINTS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. H85 TEMPS FALL OFF BLO -30C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING BY FRIDAY. STRONGER NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ISSUES NEXT THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE BLO ZERO IN MANY AREAS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 DEEPENING SFC LO WL TRACK THRU WCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE SHIFTING INTO LK SUP AFT 12Z FRI AND THEN INTO ONTARIO LATE TDAY AND TNGT. THE HEAVIEST SN WL CONT AT CMX/IWD TO THE W OF THE SFC LO TRACK THRU MUCH OF THE MRNG...SO EXPECT IFR/LIFR TO OCNL VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. ONCE THE SFC LO PASSES TO THE N OF THOSE LOCATIONS...VERY GUSTY NW BACKING W WINDS WL OCCUR AT IWD AND CMX. ALTHOUGH THE SN WL TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...THE BLSN ACCOMPANYING WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 40 KTS AT CMX WL RESULT IN VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. SINCE SAW WL BE TO THE E SIDE OF THE SFC LO TRACK...DRYING ALF WL RESULT IN LIGHTER PCPN. BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL STILL SUPPORT PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID MRNG. AFTER THAT TIME...DVLPG GUSTY... DOWNSLOPE WSW FLOW WL BRING PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WITH VERY LTL VSBY RESTRICTION THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY GALES TO 35-45KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CENTER CROSSES THE LAKE...THEN BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST GALES AT 35-45 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-009-084. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004>007-010>012-085. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244>248-264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162- 240>243-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 202247 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 147 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE NEAR TERM. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE BUILDING BLOCKING HIGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOT DOING SO WELL WITH THE SHORTWAVES THAT MOVES UP THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...505 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEAST AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY WITH A 537 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA NEAR 66N 162E MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN MERGING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A CLOSED HIGH WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY WITH A 558 DAM CENTER. A 518 DAM LOW CENTER 600NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE OVER ATKA ISLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT...TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST. SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN ANCHOR OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO ATKA ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 974MB...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT STRENGTHENS TO 964MB...MOVING TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 970MB. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING...TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO DRAG UP THE COAST INTO SATURDAY AS IT STALLS ALONG THE COAST FROM POINT HOPE EXTENDING SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OVER CHUKOTKA. A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY AS CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN RANGE. ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. BIG PATCH OF STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS YESTERDAY...THAT WAS SHOWING UP ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS UP WELL AGAIN TODAY...HAS MOVED SOUTH TO THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRATUS WILL MOVE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND WILL HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT...SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARM UP FOR THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE COMMUNITIES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION IT TO START OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGE TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH FRIDAY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL CREATE NEAR WINTER STORM CONDITIONS...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR Z211...Z212...Z213 AND Z214. A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG SEEN IN THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT IS ERODING...BUT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH STRATUS AND FLURRIES. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT MOVE TO THE WEST OUT OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GEOCAT MODIS SHOWS SOME IFR AND LIFR BUT IT IS OFFSHORE AROUND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. INTERIOR...PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND AS IT SLOWLY ERODES. THE GEOCAT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS NO AREAS OF LIFR OR IFR IN THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT COOLING AND DAYTIME WARMING. CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS NEAR PASSES BUT NOT TO WARNING LEVELS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB FEB 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 200936 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 436 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT RACES EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING COLDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA...THE RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER HIGH PRES SYSTEM. LAMP AND RAP DATA BOTH INDICATE AREAS OF FOG WILL LIFT BTWN 12Z-14Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON BAND OF SHRA LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG APPROACHING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WHERE NOSE OF LL JET INTERSECTS RETREATING 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL NEAR TERM MDL DATA TIMES THIS FEATURE THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 17Z-23Z. ENSEMBLE MFLUX VALUES AND QPF PROBS SUPPORT NEAR 100 PCT CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CHC OF SHOWERS FURTHER SE. EARLY SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER TODAY. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY...COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF RETREATING HIGH PRES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE 40S BY AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... A STRONG MID-LVL TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS STATES THIS AM IS FCST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES THE UPPER GRT LKS AND MS/OH VLYS TNGT. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE SHARP/TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE APPLCHNS AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR A THIN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WHICH COULD REACH THE WRN ALLEGHENIES EARLY FRI MORNING. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PLACE THE AREA IN GENERAL RISK...AND MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HWO ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS /AS VERY POTENT LLJET DEVELOPS/. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT HVY RAIN POTNL/FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER ICE JAM EFFECTS COULD BE A CONCERN. ATTM DO NOT ANTICIPATE RAPID SNOW-MELT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS ON FRI...PRECIP WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF NOW IN QUITE GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...WITH PRECIP ENDING BY LUNCHTIME FRI. AFTER THAT...BROAD TROUGH BECOMES MORE AND MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF U.S. THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK...GIVING US A SLOW AND STEADY RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE...NO BIG SYSTEMS THROUGH TUE AS PERSISTENT NW FLOW CONTINUES WHILE HUDSON BAY LOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND PUSHES COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTHWARD. SNOWFLAKES WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTABLE WAVE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE TROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK...AND LONG RANGE MODELS /BOTH ECMWF AND GFS/ BEGINNING TO HINT AT POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. BUT THAT REMAINS A LONG WAY OFF FOR NOW. AS FAR AS THE SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...SO MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE WILL REMAIN GRADUAL...WHICH SHOULD KEEP POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS LOW. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WIND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE CONDS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY RADIATION FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON 06Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS...KBFD APPEARS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AM. HOWEVER...THICKENING CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN OHIO COMPLICATES MATTERS AND COULD MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT. ELSEWHERE...SREF AND OPER MDL SFC RH FIELDS SUGGEST A DIMINISHING WIND COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG ARND KMDT/KLNS ARND 12Z. ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 12Z-14Z...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A BAND OF SHRA ASSOC WITH A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT THRU THE AREA DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING MAINLY NW PA WHERE MVFR REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBFD. A STRONG CORE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS CRITERIA...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD MVFR /POSS IFR/ CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE STATE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUTLOOK... FRI...WINDY. AM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS. SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 200933 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 433 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...STALLING JUST OFFSHORE UNTIL STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS MORNING. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND LAYERED LOW CLOUDS WERE BLOSSOMING INTO SW GEORGIA. THE HIGH CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE KEEPING WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL FOG AT BAY THIS MORNING WITH BEST SETUP FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY TO THE S OF I-16. THE HIGH CLOUDS WERE SHIELDING US FROM ACCESSING BREADTH OF MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING BUT SOME OF THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS S OF CHARLESTON COULD SEE SPORADIC DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPING. LATEST COASTAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED STEADILY RISING SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG COASTAL BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES. TODAY...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL AND THUS A DRY FORECAST RETAINED. MODELS INDICATE COPIOUS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 200-400 MB LAYER WILL SHIFT NORTH TODAY AND PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THE MODEL FORECAST TREND FOR THINNING HIGH CLOUD COVER WE SHOW TEMPS SOARING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND AREAS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING DEW POINTS... WEATHER ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE AMOUNT OF MARINE STRATUS AND FOG OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS AND A SENSITIVE ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXTREMELY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT EXPECTED GIVEN THE CHILLY WATER TEMPS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL VSBY AND CIG PROGS ARE VERY ERRATIC THIS MORNING AND HAVE OPTED TO MENTION SOME FOG AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT UNTIL WE CAN GET SOME MORNING VISUALS ON SATELLITE WITH LESS HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE AND DAYTIME WEB CAMS...NO DENSE FOG MENTIONS IN THE COASTAL ZONES JUST YET. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE LIKELY WILL BE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN A STRENGTHENING MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS. SEVERAL MODELS DO BREAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB THETA-E MAXIMA AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ANY PRE-DAWN SHOWER POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE SPOTTY AND BRIEF GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z. WE RAISED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MANY AREAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TRICKY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY TO BOUNCE STRATUS CIGS AROUND..ESPECIALLY LATE. AT THIS POINT...WE ONLY MENTION PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL BUT COULD CERTAIN IMAGINE THAT FOG MAY BE DENSE IN PARTS OF SE GEORGIA FOR PARTS OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PLACE A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK...THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT THE FEATURE TOWARD THE COASTLINE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HAVE SURGED TO 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING AND A DECENT TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT AN ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION TO STEADILY PUSH INTO THE AREA. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE...PEAKING AROUND NOON TO 1 PM EST. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO RAISE POPS EVEN HIGHER WITH CONTINUED MODEL CONSISTENCY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING FRONTAL FORCING OFFSHORE. THE MAIN CONCERN ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO BE ORGANIZED AND/OR SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...WHERE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TRENDS EARLIEST. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S...AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN DEWPOINT VALUES OF THE LOWER 60S...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE CORE OF STRONG JETTING APPEARS DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WITH THE 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION ONCE THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRESSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AS A DELAY OF JUST A FEW HOURS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...YET PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN CASE CONDITIONS DO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN STALL JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE ZONES ON SATURDAY AS THE FEATURE RUNS INTO ATLANTIC RIDGING. THE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STRETCH BACK TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE...AND HAVE THUS HELD ON TO A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THESE GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL JUST INLAND...THUS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT UNDER INCREASING INSULATING CLOUD COVER...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKING BETWEEN A DAMPENED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND FLAT RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THE BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THESE WAVES...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOLID SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FAR TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE PATTERN THEN BECOMES COMPLEX BY TUESDAY...WITH NUMERICAL MODELS SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONT/WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. EVENTUALLY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY WEDNESDAY...RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEAST FARTHER INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND TRACKS OF SURFACE FEATURES...PREFER TO CAP RAIN CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL ADVERTISE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH MID MORNING TO 06Z FRIDAY BUT KSAV RECENTLY REPORTING SOME FOG AT 09Z. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...RELUCTANT TO SHOW ANY REDUCTIONS BELOW VFR LEVELS AT EITHER TERMINAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR LOWER CIGS FROM THE PROXIMITY OF SEA FOG TO DRIFT INTO THE TERMINALS LATE BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY INCLUSIONS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 17Z TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR IFR CONDITIONS FROM STRATUS CIGS MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. WE MENTIONED ON SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FOR NOW. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED THE 50-53 DEGREE READINGS OUT 20 NM FROM BOTH THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE MID 60S 40-60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND WARM EDDY NEAR 70 AROUND BUOY 41004. MARINE STABILITY PLAYS INTO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS AS WELL AS AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY PLUS LOWER WIND GUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT OVER COOLEST SHELF WATERS. WE ISSUED MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SOUTH. WE HAVE SEEN FOG ON WEB CAMS AND NOTED VSBYS AT KSSI HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES AS WELL. THERE IS EXCELLENT POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO MAKE IT UP INTO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING ANY FOG ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH FOR NOW. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LATER TONIGHT BUT GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND DECENT SEA SURFACE STABILITY...WE HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA MENTIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST LATE BUT STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE OVER WARMER WATERS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED TONIGHT...3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEA FOG WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY ONSHORE...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS DECREASING IN ITS WAKE. THIS DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF THE IDEAL FETCH OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...SUGGESTS FOG WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY LATE FRIDAY. A BRIEF SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET RAPIDLY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMP TODAY AT CHARLESTON IS 82 SET IN 1991 AND 84 AT SAVANNAH...ALSO SET IN 1991. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-354. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...WMS LONG TERM...WMS AVIATION... MARINE...WMS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 190316 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 916 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014 .UPDATE...CALM WINDS AND TEMPORARY CLEARING HAS ALLOWED KSBM TO PLUMMET TO 20F THIS EVENING. AS WINDS AND CLOUDS INCREASE BEHIND WEAK TROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG AT KSBM BUT WEBCAMS SHOW IT IS VERY LOCALIZED. HENCE WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH CLOUDS...WL HOLD OFF ON FOG MENTION. DESPITE ONLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ENHANCED FORCING FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET PRODUCING SMALL AREA OF -RA OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MN/IA BORDER AREA. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST SO BROUGHT A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES INTO THE WEST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. IF DBZ AREA HOLDS TOGETHER WL BUMP UP TO ISOLD -SHSN/-SHRA MENTION IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HENCE CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVY EARLY. CONCERN INCREASES IN REGARDS TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT. EXTREMELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO STORM FORCE /48 KNOTS/FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z/FRI. HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF ICE REDEVELOPMENT/THICKENING OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH OVERALL...QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED. QUICK MOVING SFC TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SAID SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVERHEAD BY 00Z WED. MSLP PRESSURE RISES BEGIN SOON AFTER IN THE MID/LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND BY 18Z IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER E MO/SW IL...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND RH MODEL LAYERS SHOW DECENT SATURATION...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 700-500 HPA. SO INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK/SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT WITH DRY AIR IN LOW-LEVELS...DON\T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING REACHING THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING AS WARM OF TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS WE SAW TODAY GIVEN 925 HPA TEMPERATURES...THOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE DECENT. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S THOUGH FEW READINGS MAY REACH AROUND 40 F. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED NT WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THAT REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL THEN LIFT NEWD WITH STRONG DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NNEWD ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN FROM 993 MB TO NEARLY 970 MB AS IT OCCLUDES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG WSWLY WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER...WILL LIKELY RESULT THU NT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF SRN WI. THE INITIAL ROUND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING PCPN INTO FAR SRN WI LATE WED NT INTO THU AM. SFC TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM. FROST HOWEVER IS DEEP IN THE GROUND AND FREEZING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. THUS SOME ICING IS EXPECTED THU AM. AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FOR THE AFTERNOON...MDT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY ICING OVER WITH. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE FAR WRN CWA WHERE TEMPS ARE COLDER ALOFT. THE DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW VIA MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY THEN OCCUR THU NT. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS WOULD CERTAINLY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY BUT A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS FROM IA INTO IL THROUGH FRI NT. THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW MAY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW FRI NT. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN ONTARIO CANADA MAINTAINING NWLY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW MON NT AND TUE. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. GIVEN RH PROFILES AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE IA AND AS IT PUSHES EAST WILL SEE WINDS AT TAF SITES DECREASE. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH REMOVED LLWS AT KMSN...LLWS STILL PRESENT IN THE OTHER THREE TAF SITES GIVEN SUPPORT...BASED OFF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL HI-RES WIND FIELDS. MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 04Z WED/10 PM CST TONIGHT. VIS SAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD ICE STILL IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE...WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...99 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...99  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 150334 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 934 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 .UPDATE...WEAK WIND SHIFT JUST TO THE NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO BRING A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO FAR EASTERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES IF THAT... EXPECTED IN THE FAR EAST. KGRB VCP-31 SHOWING WEAK RETURNS NOW SAGGING INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST INTO SRN WI OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DECOUPLE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET SO WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FAR EAST. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...IN GENERAL A VFR PERIOD UNTIL LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT TAF SITES. WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING DOWN LAKESHORE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS TO ERN TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z OR SO. && .MARINE...HI RES VISIBLE MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWS THE THICKER ICE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY MELTED DUE TO THE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER STILL LIKELY TO BE SOME LINGERING THIN ICE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME ICE REFORMATION. HENCE WL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS FOR NOW. WEAK WIND SHIFT ABOUT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH SURFACE/850 TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE IN ERN WI WITH SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO SC WI BY 12Z. 925 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -11 TO -15C RANGE. LOWS IN MANY LOCALES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM UNEVENTFUL MORNING WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE/850 RIDGING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AS SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES SRN WI. 500 MILLIBAR DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES INTO SW WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. AXIS OF 250 MILLIBAR JET CORE WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH SOME HINTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTH. MODELS AGREE ON SPREADING SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS MODIFY TO -9 TO -11C. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A SMIDGE COOLER THAN THE 925 TECHNIQUE WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING AND INCREASING CLOUDS. SO UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S LOOK MORE LIKELY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A 1010 MB SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL IA AT 00Z SUN WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK TO THE WRN PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN. THE LGT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING AND DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS FOR SAT AND SAT NT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER EAST CENTRAL WI TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SW OF MADISON. SOME CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF SRN WI. A SFC RIDGE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. FOR SUN NT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO TRACK FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY PRESENT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM MO TO NRN IN WITH THE STENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IL TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PHASED WITH ANOTHER MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN GRTLKS DURING THIS PERIOD. IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION INCLUDING AT THE JET LEVEL IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WHILE THE MOST FOCUSED FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER QPF REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF WI. MOSTLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN FAR SRN WI. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES. IF GREATER DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW CAN OCCUR...THEN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVERSELY...IF THE GFS IS MORE CORRECT ON KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE MORE NWD AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...THEN LESS SNOW WOULD OCCUR. LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE MONDAY SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN USA. SWLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S FOR TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING WELL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE NT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY FOLLOW...BUT SLY WINDS WILL RETURN FOR WED AFT. CYCLOGENESIS...POSSIBLY STRONG...IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE WRN USA UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG DEEPENING LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NRN WI ON THU. SOME MIXED PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN WED NT BUT RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S FOR THU. QUIET WX WITHIN A COL FOR FRI. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. QUIET AND VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGING DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING SNOW TO OUR WEST THROUGH 18Z. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SC WI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH SNOW ARRIVING INTO SE WI LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILL WRAP UP BY 6Z OR SO. LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN INCH IN THE EAST WITH UP TO 2 INCHES SW OF KMSN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 141342 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 442 AM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...AT 500 HPA THEY REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH 78 HOURS OR SO AS A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PINBALLS AROUND. AT THE SURFACE THEY ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS AS LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY DEEPENS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 483 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER KODIAK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN BECOME QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE UP THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR IS BEING MIXED OUT BY THE WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW A POOL OF COLD OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...977 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY AS IT DEEPENS TO 968 MB SATURDAY MORNING NEAR CORDOVA. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE HANGS AROUND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY TO THE ARCTIC COAST...GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BRING BANDS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE INTERIOR. A BAND WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME OF THAT ENERGY WORKING UP INTO THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND OUT TO THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. 0755Z MODIS 11UM SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED BUT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL DEVELOP WEST OF DEADHORSE TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILL FALLING TO AROUND 55 BELOW...SO WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLD TEMPERATURES HANGING ON OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH FOR CLOUDS AS EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH SOME SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...KOBUK VALLEY...AND NOATAK VALLEY AT THIS TIME. INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF SWINGING BANDS OF MOISTURE NORTH EXPECT SNOW TO DE3VELOP OVER ZONE 226 THIS EVENING WORKING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY EVENING. GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY WITH WINDS OVER SUMMITS BLOWING AROUND 25 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS. THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WILL MIGRATE NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD IS REINFORCED NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212- AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226- AKZ227. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ218. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB FEB 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 112002 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1002 AM HST TUE FEB 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARBY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT VOG. THE RIDGE WILL RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...ALLOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND TURN SOUTHEAST. && .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF A NEARBY COL...OR WEAKNESS IN BOTH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BACKGROUND FLOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE LATEST MODIS TPW IMAGE SHOWS A GRADIENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND INCREASING MOISTURE TOWARD KAUAI. THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT AM SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE 12Z PHLI SOUNDING PW OF 1.79 INCHES WAS INFLUENCED BY RAIN AND IS NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE...AS THE GPS-MET SENSOR AT PHNL IS SHOWING ABOUT 1.1 INCH OF PW WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODIS. ALSO...AMDAR DATA IS SHOWING A QUASI-ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 800-900 MB SO ANY SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD NOT BE TOO HEFTY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE ISLANDS IN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. EXPECTING A CYCLE OF NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND HIT OR MISS SHOWERS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. ON FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH N AND STRENGTHENED ENOUGH TO RETURN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE STATE. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WEST END OF THE STATE...THE TRADES WILL BE ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR KAUAI AND OAHU... LESS SO AS YOU HEAD TOWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SHOULD DEFINITIVELY CLEAR THE VOG AWAY FROM THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS 500-600 MILES WEST OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR 21N170W. THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. MODERATE TRADES ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO ESE ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INTERIOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN ISLANDS AGAIN SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR COND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII TODAY. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT. ISOL MTN OBSC AND MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER ISLAND INTERIORS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CRITERIA UNTIL AT LEAST FRI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE STRENGTHENING TRADES COULD BE ENOUGH TO RETURN SCA WINDS TO SOME SPOTS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY NEAR KAUAI...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS. A SERIES OF SMALL TO MODERATE N AND NW SWELLS THIS WEEK SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SURF ADVISORY LEVELS. A RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED FETCH OF LOW-END GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SEND A SLIGHTLY LARGER BUMP TO OUR N SHORES ON FRI. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD AVIATION...FOSTER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 092057 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 357 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 LAKE SUPERIOR IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...SEE THE LATEST FALSE COLOR MODIS IMAGE. THE MAIN HOLES ARE OVER THE FAR W...ALONG THE COAST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. STILL THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH LIGHT WINDS TURNING TO A MOSTLY WNW DIRECTION TODAY TO CAUSE SOME CONVERGENCE WITH THE ADDED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PICKING UP ON THE COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND HAVE TO RELY HEAVILY ON THE GFS/ECMWF FOR AREAL COVERAGE WITH SIGNIFICANT EDITING TO ALIGN MORE WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WIND FIELDS. THIS HAS NOT WORKED OUT TOO WELL TODAY...AS N WINDS REMAINED MOST OF THE DAY OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM BIG BAY THROUGH MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY. AN ESTIMATED 2IN HAS ALREADY BEEN CALLED IN FROM MARQUETTE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE RADAR ESTIMATE WITH A 18:1 SLR. HAVE ALREADY SEEN LESS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OF ADDITIONAL LES OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND OVERALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS UPSTREAM...WITH THE NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER S MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. IT HAS BROUGHT HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS TO KCDD AND SW ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW AS WELL...LEADING US TO WONDER HOW MUCH LES CAN BE PRODUCED OFF THE BREAKS NEAR ISLE ROYALE. WILL KEEP MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OVERNIGHT IN THESE LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA /850MB TEMPS FALLING AROUND 2C/ WILL HELP WITH LES...AND CLOUDS. STILL...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO W AND CENTRAL INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 8MPH...WIND CHILL READINGS ONLY BOTTOM OUT AT -25 FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF A COUNTY-WIDE SPS OR WIND CHILL ADVISORY. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE WNW AGAIN MONDAY...WITH LES CONTINUING IN THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. ONCE AGAIN...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW PUSH OF WIND TOWARD IWD SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PUSH N OF THE SITE WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING DOMINANT. CMX WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LOWER VIS WITH -SHSN AS SAW IS IN A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL STILL KEEP VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS OFF AND ON AT BOTH IWD AND SAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS DUE TO THE WINDS LINGERING AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD /EXCLUDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...AND MAINLY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD TONIGHT...A HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE. EXPECT A RIDGE TO SET UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY...AND EXITS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY. S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NE TO S HUDSON BAY WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OUT OF THE N/NNE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 090803 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 STEADY MID CLOUDS ARE SW OF A LINE FROM JUST SW OF DLH TO GRB. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER NE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS. WHILE ALL THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN S OF THE CWA...ACROSS WI/LOWER MI...WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOW TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THE WEAK SFC TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT WILL SINK ACROSS THE E CWA AND LOWER BY BY 12Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING INCREASED NW FLOW AND COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM A CWA AVG OF -16C THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND -21C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WAS EVIDENT BY THE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT AND 1IN SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR GRAND MARAIS...EVEN WITH A MAINLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH OPEN AREAS AND OVERALL FLUXES TO CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN DOWNWIND LOCATIONS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE THE FCST OF SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE OUT OF THE NNW BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE W AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1116 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AS VARIABLE WINDS SHIFT NW BTWN 08-14Z THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE...IT IS HARD TO FCST VSBY LOWER THAN VFR AS NW WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND SHOULDN/T CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH BLOWING SNOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 GIVEN THE MAINLY FROZEN LAKE...FREEZING SPRAY IS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...AS A STRONG HIGH SINKS FROM ALBERTA TO THE N PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AND EXIT ACROSS THE NE SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 080839 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 339 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 THE PERIOD OF GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MOVED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE YESTERDAY EVENING AND SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WIND DIRECTION...ALONG WITH MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWING SOME GAPS IN THE ICE NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...WAS ENOUGH TO LEAD TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND STRETCHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTIES. THE UPTICK IN INTENSITY SEEN ON RADAR WAS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST HOUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WITH LAND BREEZES OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHWEST THROUGH WISCONSIN FROM A HIGH IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO RANGE...BUT LIGHT WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE WIND CHILL READINGS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA SHIFTS EAST TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA (NEARLY BRUSHING THE CITY OF MENOMINEE) AND THE ONLY INFLUENCE BEING HIGH CIRRUS SLIDING OVER THE CWA. THUS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST POPS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL KEEPING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THAT IS DUE TO IT HAVING MUCH MORE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THUS...WILL STICK TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE NAM/GEM-REG AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH ALL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WANING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE WEST (AND EVEN A LITTLE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON). THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OVER ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DUE TO THE FAVORED WIND DIRECTION AND THE OPEN WATER NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...BUT DON/T THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT AN MUCH. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITH THIS WAVE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER...WON/T GO WITH MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMPS OF -22C WOULD SUPPORT GOOD INSTABILITY WHERE POCKETS OF OPEN WATER ARE PRESENT. DID TREND HIGHS UP A LITTLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL/WEST LOCATIONS SINCE THE INITIAL SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOWER ALBEDO OF THE FORESTS TO PRODUCE HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (MID-UPPER TEENS). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY...BUT COLD WX TO IMPACT UPR MI THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THIS COMING WEEK AS NW FLOW BTWN PERSISTENT VORTEX CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND UPR RDG OVER THE W CONTINUES TO FUNNEL CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS OVER ICE COVERED LK SUP. BUT LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS BASIC WRN RDG/ERN TROF UPR PATTERN WILL WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME TOWARD MID WEEK AND ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW WL ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME LARGER SCALE SN EVENTS. SUN THRU MON...LATEST MODELS RUN HINT THAT A PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WL PASS THRU THE UPR MIDWEST/UPR LKS DURING THIS TIME. THE MORE SGNFT OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO IMPACT UPR MI ON SUN...BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MOISTENING TO BE WEAKER. CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW IN LLVL NW FLOW WITH FCST PWAT NO HIER THAN 0.10-0.15 INCH...ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WL TEND TO CUT BACK POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN IN THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP... EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE LK...RELATIVELY HI H925-85 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 3C AND ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL CYC FLOW WL LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHSN EVEN WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENTLY COLD H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -23C. ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV WL PASS LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG...BUT THE SAME LIMITS WL STILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPS WL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLDS ON SUN NGT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHRTWVS MAY LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL FALL WELL BLO ZERO. IF THE STRONGER WINDS SHOWN BY THE GFS VERIFY...WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS/WIND CHILLS AT SOME PLACES COULD AT LEAST APRCH ADVY LIMITS. BUT MORE ILL DEFINED SHRTWVS INDICATE THE WEAKER WINDS FCST BY OTHER MODELS ARE PROBABLY ON TRACK. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD TOWARD THE UPR LKS UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA...WITH SFC WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE W BY 12Z TUE AND THEN TO SW ON TUE. ANY LES IN THE W WIND SNOW BELTS WL BECOME CONFINED TO THE KEWEENAW ON TUE AND END LATER IN THE DAY AS THE WINDS BACK SW. TEMPS COULD GET QUITE COLD MON NGT WITH PWAT AROUND 0.1 INCH AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH APPROACH OF SFC RDG AXIS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MON NGT MIN TEMPS...WITH EXPECTATION THE MERCURY COULD DIP AS LO AS -20F NEAR THE WI BORDER. EXTENDED...AS UPR FLOW TRENDS MORE ZONAL AT MID WEEK...MORE MODERATE MARITIME POLAR AIR WL IMPACT UPR MI. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WL BE ABLE TO TAP MORE MSTR AND BRING THE CHC OF MORE WDSPRD SN. WAD IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF THESE SHRTWVS MAY CAUSE SOME SN AS EARLY AS TUE NGT INTO WED AS H85 TEMPS RECOVER TO -5 TO -10C. BUT THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV TO THE N THRU ONTARIO INDICATES PCPN SHOULD BE NOT TOO GREAT. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY REACH THE AREA LATER ON WED/THU...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SOME LES MAY FOLLOW WITH THE RETURN OF SOME COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE ON FRI...BUT THAT AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. THE VERY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RECOVER TO ABV NORMAL THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH FALLING PRES IN CANADA SUPPORTING A STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX...MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN. SOME LARGER OPENINGS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER AREAS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS HOVERING AROUND 3000 TO 3500FT AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING AT KCMX. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK A LITTLE. LIGHT WINDS MAY VEER AGAIN THIS EVENING...BRINGING A HIGH MVFR CIG AND A FEW FLURRIES TO KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 A WEAK TROUGH MOVED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 15KTS BY EVENING. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A STRONG HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25KTS. FINALLY...WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE COVERED...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONCERNS WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 080840 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 240 AM CST SAT FEB 8 2014 .DISCUSSION... 856 PM CST NO BIG CHANGES THIS EVENING...MAINLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TRENDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SEVERAL LARGE SCALE FEATURES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IT DOES APPEAR AS A SMALLER IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WAA OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPING SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...DO THINK IT HAS A CHANCE TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN CWA MORE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. SO HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SATURDAY MORNINGS POP GRID...BRINGING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS AS IF LOW TEMPS MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH EITHER A STEADY OR SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED. RODRIGUEZ //PREV DISCUSSION... 313 PM CST THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL THE ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE SUB ZERO LOWS IN MOST AREAS WILL BE THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISING BACK ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS EVOLVED. A RATHER STOUT PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY BEING EJECTED EASTWARD ACROSS IDAHO...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MORNING...WITH SNOW LIKELY ONSETTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AROUND MIDDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QUIET IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 DEGREES C PER KM. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING PV ANOMALY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY DEEP DGZ...POSSIBLY 200 MB DEEP AT TIMES...DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN MIND...I WENT WITH A 16 TO 18 TO 1 RATIO FOR THE SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD YIELD 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP AROUND 4 INCHES GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AREAS ACROSS MY SOUTHERN CWA...SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE AND ILLINOIS RIVERS...LOOK TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY ONLY AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT MY SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE BETTER FAVORED FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HENCE THE BETTER AREAS OF FGEN. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THOUGH AREAS NORTH COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF MY AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...WITH THE END OF THE SNOW...WILL COME MORE COLD. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN LATER SUNDAY AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SETUP SUB ZERO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS COULD EVEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AGAIN IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH POSSIBLY MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THERE IS SOME LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY SEE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS WITH NO NEW SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK...WE COULD GET TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY CRACK THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME AREAS BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AS THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE CONTINUED SMALLER SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIKELY TO EJECT OUT OF THE ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. KJB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * A PERIOD OF SNOW/IFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... VFR OVERCAST WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM MID-LEVEL TO 4000-5000 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BY EARLY EVENING AS INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN SOME FASHION WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT AS A SECOND MID- LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACH. SOME INDICATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND SOME FOG MAY LINGER/DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THIS TIME. WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BRING A SHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO NORTHWEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SOLID IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO MVFR LIKELY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SNOW POTENTIAL. RATZER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING/INTENSITY...AND MVFR CIG/VIS DETAILS SATURDAY NIGHT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. IZZI && .MARINE... 240 AM CST WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND REACHES THE WESTERN LAKES AS AN ELONGATED LOW/TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS WHICH HAD DIMINISHED AND BACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER A BIT WITH HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES MODEL WIND SPEEDS...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR TIMING...WHICH BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS UP INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 25 KT EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE RIDGE DRAWS NEAR LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR OUR ILLINOIS/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS...BEAUTIFUL MODIS POLAR ORBITER SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE LAST TWO SUNNY DAYS INDICATES MUCH OF THE INDIANA WATERS ARE SOLIDLY ICE-COVERED...WHILE THICKER ICE HAD PUSHED EAST OFF THE ILLINOIS SHORE WITH THE STRONGER WEST WINDS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WEB CAMS SUGGEST THAT OUR SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS HAVE ALLOWED AT LEAST SOME ICE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE AND THUS WILL OMIT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NEARSHORE FORECAST AS LIKELY LITTLE WAVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN LARGE AMOUNT OF ICE. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 072136 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 336 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014 .TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING...COMBINING WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY. HOW FAR TEMPS FALL DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS STAY AWAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR BELOW ZERO TEMPS ACROSS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY MAINLY STAY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR SATURDAY. A DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH PRETTY GOOD SATURATION AND DECENT LIFT VIA SOME WARM ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. MODELS NOT PAINTING OUT A LOT OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECTING A PRETTY EFFICIENT SNOW MAKER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 12 KFT. THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS SUGGEST LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF ABOUT 25 TO 1...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 30 TO 1 GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. OVERALL...EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...TO ABOUT TWO AND HALF INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE MID TO LATE MORNING...EXITING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL PROBABLY SEE SNOW COVERED ROADS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. .SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL STILL BE HANGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE EVENING WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE EAST. MOISTURE IS STILL PREVALENT...SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING ACROSS THE EAST HALF AT THE START OF THE EVENING...BUT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...MORE WELL BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE HEADED OUR WAY...ON THE ORDER OF -2 TO -15 MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. ADD THE WIND AND WE/LL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW...SO MORE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EXPECTED. IT WILL BE DRY UNDER THE HIGH...SO WE HAVE THAT... .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. BETTER NEWS AS HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20S. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FINALLY GETTING IN HERE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 20S...AND UPPER 20S FOR THURSDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A WEAK LOOKING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SO A CHANCE FOR SNOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THE SNOW EVENT FOR SATURDAY IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES...PARTICULARY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WHEN THE SNOW ARRIVES. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS NEARSHORE WATERS PRETTY MUCH COVERED IN ICE...WITH A SMALL GAP OF WATER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH THE ICE A BIT OFFSHORE. BASICALLY...LITTLE TO NO WAVES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 070936 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 336 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. PATCHY MID-CLOUDS FROM WEAK SHEAR ZONE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD DECREASE AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HENCE STILL TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5 DEGREES OR SO. WIND CHILLS SO FAR OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW MOST LOCATIONS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HENCE WL CONTINUE ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY. SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND WARMER START SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON READINGS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES OVER THURSDAY TMAX. CLOUDS SLOWER TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT DUE TO SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FALL OFF TO BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS. WENT LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS MAY LOWER TO 20 TO 25 BELOW LATE TONIGHT IN SOME NORTHERN AREAS WITH WINDS AROUND 4- 5KTS. .SHORT TERM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SYSTEM AND SNOW TO THE SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...BUT WEAK OMEGA WITHIN THE ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...REFLECTED IN THE LOW LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAX OVER IL...PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONGEST OMEGA...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10 MICROBARS/SEC...IS ABOVE THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE DCVA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EVEN THE NAM...WITH THE MOST GENEROUS QPF ONLY ABLE TO GENERATE A SNOWFALL MAX OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA ...WITH 1 INCH IN THE FAR NORTH. USING A CONSENSUS/WPC BLEND YIELDS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND 1.5 TO 2.2 ACROSS THE SRN HALF. NOT ONLY A LATER START TO SNOW SATURDAY BUT A LATER END SO WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF RAPIDLY BY 06Z WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE. A BIT OF A NON- DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THEN FALLING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...WITH A FEW SPOTS GOING BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. GFS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. WILL OPT FOR BLENDED TEMPERATURES THAT ALLOW HIGHS OF 15 TO NEAR 20...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME CONTINUES AS BROAD ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WNW. LOWS FALLING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL...WITH 850/925MB TEMPS RISING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN STATES. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IS A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM INDICATING NO SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE BLENDED SOLUTION KEEPING WEDNESDAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WI LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE KMSN MAY EXPERIENCE 1-2 HOUR PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH...EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHEAR ZONE TO EXIT SOUTHEAST WI EARLY THIS MRNG. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBY LOWERING AT KMKE LATER SAT MRNG DUE TO APPROACHING -SN. && .MARINE... WILL EXPAND ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY TO INCLUDE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS. ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY TO ALLOW OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH THE MID-LATE AFTN. HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM THURSDAY SHOWED WIDESPREAD THICKER ICE JUST OFFSHORE. LIKELY THIS ICE HAD BEEN BLOWN OFFSHORE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT AREAS OF THINNER ICE LIKELY TO REMAIN OR REFORM TOWARDS SHORE DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HENCE STILL EXPECT ICE TO LIMIT WAVE ACTION AND FREEZING SPRAY THREAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047- 051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 060929 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 AM CST THU FEB 6 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. CORE OF COLDEST AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI ATTM. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR SURGE CAUSING INCREASING STRATUS FIELD OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...PER LATEST 11- 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. TRAJECTORY TAKES THIS STRATUS FIELD OVER MILWAUKEE METRO AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT STRATUS TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WI AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONE ALSO SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL ALSO HELP RETARD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTED BY DECREASING TOTAL COLUMN CONDENSATE. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER DUE TO EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH AND RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH MANY WIND CHILLS FALLING TO BELOW 20 BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TONIGHT...COLDER START AND LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO FALL TO BETWEEN 3 AND 10 BELOW. THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO 20 TO 30 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND WILL BE ISSUED ONCE ONGOING WIND CHILL EXPIRES. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT HIGHS STILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BACK BELOW ZERO AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WARM BACK TO AROUND ZERO BY LATE IN THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. .SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM POPS WERE RAISED A BIT FOR FOR SATURDAY...AS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING...STRENGTH...AND FEATURE PLACEMENT ISSUES AMONG MODELS...BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE SEEMS TO BE COMING TOGETHER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD...HIGH SNOW RATIO EVENT...WITH AVERAGE MODEL LIQUID OF A TENTH OF AN INCH SUGGESTING ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW. .SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS LIKE MORE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSING PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS THROUGH THE DAY SO AFTER THIS MRNG...CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TNGT. && .MARINE...WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WAVE FORECASTS DUE TO LIKELY AREAS OF ICE LINGERING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. NOT SURE WHAT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE DONE TO THE ICE COVER BUT MORE CLEARING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW UPDATED VIEW FROM NEW HI RES MODIS IMAGERY. WEST WIND GUSTS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTN AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047- 056>058-062>064-067>070. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 040934 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 334 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. EXPECT THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASS THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WEAK SHEAR ZONE FROM WESTERN KS INTO IA. THIS WEAK FORCING CAUSING AREAS OF -SN OVER IOWA. CROSS SECTIONS HAVE PERSISTENT DRIER AREA IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE MID CLOUDS LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW PRODUCED BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWING WAVE OVER WEST TX. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS MO AND CENTRAL IL NEXT 24 HOURS. NAM REMAINS OUTLIER IN ITS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK. HOWEVER IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DOES PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...FOCUSED ON FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM BOTH NAM AND GFS. 500-300MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TOUCHING 50 UNITS WHILE 10 TO 20 UNITS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...MID-LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CROSSES FAR SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HENCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT. DELTA-T OVERNIGHT INCREASES TO 15-16 DEGREES WITH INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 4K FEET. WIND DIRECTION IN THE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SLOWLY BACKS OVERNIGHT BUT WL LINGER FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z RESULTING IN MODERATE OMEGA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OVER THE AREA...THINKING LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ADD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM PARTS OF MILWAUKEE COUNTY TO EASTERN PARTS OF KENOSHA AND RACINE COUNTIES. THIN ICE COVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT OPEN WATER STARTS AT ABOUT 10 MILES OFF SHORE TO MID LAKE. WOULD THINK THIS WOULD CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON SNOWFALL BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO HOIST WINTER WX ADVY FOR 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LATEST MODELS SUGGEST BOTH SYNOPTIC SCALE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED UNDER A MEAN NORTHEAST FLOW FROM 1000 TO 850 MB. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...CUTTING OFF THE LAKE SNOW. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE MAINLY EAST BY AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUDS...BUT AT THE COST OF COLDER TEMPS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IF MODELS REMAIN THIS COLD...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS WILL THEN STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY...ONLY RECOVERING TO THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN FORECAST FOR SAT/SUN BASED ON THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH A SHORTWAVE. UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS LIKE MORE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. MAY GET A FEW FLURRIES SHAKEN OUT OF THE THICKENING CLOUDS BUT EXPECT MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW TO MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY TO FALL TO LIFR LEVELS CLOSER TO LAKE MI WITH IFR FARTHER INLAND FOR A TIME. && .MARINE... HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY SHOWED THIN ICE COVERING ALMOST ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT BEYOND 5 NM...WITH THICKER ICE 5 TO 10 MILES EAST OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA...EXTENDING TO NORTHERN IL/IN NEARSHORE AREAS. WIDESPREAD ICE WILL LIMIT WAVE ACTION AND RESULTANT FREEZING SPRAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING THRU WED AFTN. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DO TO THE WIDESPREAD ICE COVER OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ066-071-072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 031943 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WELL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND A FEW LOWER 20S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ICE COVERAGE...THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER OVER THE EAST (EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND) TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. UPSTREAM...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY) HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CLOUDS ARE MORE SCATTERED AND HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND ALSO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH PUTTING OUT ANY QPF...THINK MENTIONING FLURRIES SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN MINNESOTA AND CANADA. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING THE FLURRIES UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE EVENING AND CONTINUED INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE. SINCE THE ICE COVERAGE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SOLID OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WINDS DO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT FLUXES OFF THE LAKE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD AND FLURRY SUPPORT. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY (FROM A STRONG HIGH OF 1054MB CENTERED IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES). SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AROUND 875MB AND POTENTIALLY TRAP ANY LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE 950-900MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND SINCE THE COVERAGE IS LARGER BEHIND THE FRONT IN CANADA...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE UPCOMING SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS. SINCE THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL LIMIT ANY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OFF THE POCKET OF OPEN WATER IN THE EASTERN QUARTER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BASED OFF THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE 950-900MB LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW CHANCES TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO NE LUCE COUNTY TOMORROW MORNING AND POTENTIALLY WEST TO THE GRAND MARAIS AREA. DID PUT SOME FLURRIES OVER WESTERN ALGER COUNTY SINCE LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF OPEN WATER IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM THE HURON ISLANDS TO SHOT POINT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH HEATING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST (A 40MI FETCH) WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLICATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVAL AND HOW LOW THEY REMAIN. IF SKIES STAY CLOUDY...EXPECT LOWS TO STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...WHILE IF CLEARING OCCURS IT WILL WILL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE (ALTHOUGH WITH A TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUDS) AND HAVE LOW AROUND ZERO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. WITH TODAY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...IT MARKS THE 60TH DAY IN A ROW THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THAT...WHICH PUTS US AT 3RD IN THE ALL-TIME LIST. WITH ONLY 12 MORE DAYS TO GO TO TIE...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE RECORD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 BENIGN WEATHER PATTER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH SUN AS FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL AND EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR LIMITS LES COVERAGE/CHANCES. REALLY...NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH JUST LOW 30 POPS BEING THE HIGHEST POP IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS W TO THE LOW TEENS E. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME BLOW SNOW TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU AND FRI. W-WSW WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 25KTS AT THAT TIME...AND WITH ICE COVERING MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW IS ESPECIALLY EXPOSED TO BLOWING SNOW. USED CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...BUT AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND NORTH DAKOTA...MOST SITES ARE AT VFR WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVFR WITH A SNOW SHOWER. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION -SHSN FOR KIWD/KCMX DUE TO THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. SINCE MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE IS ICE COVERED...HELD OFF ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LIMITED INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUEPRIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WHEN A LOW MOVES THROUGH HUDSON BAY...COULD SEE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE COVERED...SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 282113 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 413 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS. RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN 1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ). BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 VERY COLD AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF -SHSN. WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT 1SM FOR VSBY WITH A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHSN AND BLSN. WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE...WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING -SHSN/BLSN BACK TO KCMX THIS EVENING IF -SHSN DO IN FACT END TODAY. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BLO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO 40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263- 264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 252040 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 340 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 A DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH COLDER AIR TO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 0 DEGREES AND ABOUT 5-18 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RAP ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS OF -27C) HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE IT IS ICE FREE. MODIS IMAGE FROM THURSDAY/TODAY AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE ICE MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE APOSTLE ISLANDS TO THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY OPEN OTHER THAN SOME ICE NEAR THE SHORELINES. SINCE MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WESTERN LAKE BEING COMPLETELY ICED OVER...IT IS WREAKING HAVOC ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND LAKE EFFECT QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. OVER THE WEST...IT HAS COMPLETELY REMOVED LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WHICH ISN/T THE CASE BASED OFF WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. THUS...NOT SURE ABOUT THE USABILITY OF MOST MODEL DATA FOR LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BACK TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF 1013MB OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA IS NOSING EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE WEAKENING WINDS AND DRIER AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS (3-4KFT ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING) HAS PRODUCED WEAKENING BANDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IMPROVING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEBCAMS. OVER THE EAST...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20-35KTS AND WITH STRONGER MULTIBAND LES LOCATED FROM MUNISING EASTWARD...SPOTTER/WEBCAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES ARE STILL POOR. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT MOVED INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH THE AXIS LOCATED OVER FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z SUNDAY. FIRST FOR THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY DIMINISHMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH IT BEING LAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE EAST. THIS STEADY DIMINISHMENT SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM THE FINE FLAKES AND BLOWING SNOW. THEREFORE...WITH THE WINDS STARTING TO COME DOWN OVER THE WEST...WILL ALLOW THE LES ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 22Z AND HAVE THE LES WARNING OVER THE EAST REMAIN UNTIL 6Z. WITH MODELS MISHANDLING OF ICE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW MORE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LES THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS BACK. NOW FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE STRONG/MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...TAKING A 998MB LOW FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 12Z SUNDAY TO NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS AT 00Z MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -20C SUNDAY...DON/T THINK THERE WILL MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH. THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THEN TOWARDS EVENING OVER THE WEST AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED (3-6HRS) AND MAINLY AFFECT FAR SOUTHEST SCHOOLCRAFT AND SOUTHERN LUCE COUNTIES. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.11IN AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CLOUD AND FORCING WELL ABOVE THE DGZ (GENERALLY FROM -25 TO -30C) THINK THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE FINER FLAKES AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS TOMORROW. COBB OUTPUT FROM ALL OF THE MODELS HOVER AROUND 13-1 VALUES AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS END UP AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE FINE FLAKES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF NAMERICA (POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING) WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS AT LEAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF RIDGE AXIS AND GREATEST POSITIVE ANOMALY...BUT OVERALL THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSTREAM...A TROF WILL DOMINATE CNTRL AND ERN NAMERICA...RESULTING IN SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS HERE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND BEYOND. GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE RIDGE AND TROF WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF BITTER COLD WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PCPN... PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD -SN. THE FIRST ONE OCCURS SUN/SUN NIGHT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND A SECOND ONE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. WITH THE COLD...LES WILL BE THE RULE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... ICE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES SINCE IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/THICKEN ON LAKE SUPERIOR. FREQUENT PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AREAS OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH HAS CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER NOW. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 24HRS MAY HAVE OPENED UP A LARGE AREA OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TODAY. IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAPID ICE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE WINDS. WOULD EXPECT THAT OVER TIME OPEN WATER AREAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SMALLER AND CONFINED TO THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE LAKE ALONG THE MN NORTH SHORE AS ICE PILES UP DOWNWIND. AS USUAL...ICE COVERAGE ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SLOWER TO EXPAND SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE OCCURRING ON A REGULAR BASIS. IN THE END...WHILE LES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI...IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE COLD PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE MAY NOT YET BE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN LES INTO NE UPPER MI. IN FACT WITH THE OPEN WATER AREA BECOMING MORE OVAL SHAPED...IT MAY TEND TO SUPPORT STRONGER DOMINANT LES BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SEEN OFF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE WHEN WINDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF THOSE LAKES. BEGINNING SUN...ATTENTION WILL BE ON POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE ORIGINATES FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC AND IS CURRENTLY OVER VICTORIA ISLAND IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO. WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE WILL SPREAD -SN ACROSS WI/NRN IL/NRN IN INTO LWR MI IN THE MORNING. NRN FRINGE OF THAT -SN WILL LIKELY BRUSH THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI. THE POTENT MAIN WAVE WILL THEN SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE AROUND 150M...AND MODELS INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH AXIS OF CORE FORCING PASSING SQUARELY ACROSS UPPER MI SUN. IF ANYTHING...MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN STRONGER WITH THE FORCING OVER THE LAST 24HRS OF RUNS. LACK OF MOISTURE IS A BIG NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO 1G/KG. EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL SUN...THOUGH GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE. AS WINDS BECOME NRLY AS SHORTWAVE PASSES...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...ONE OF THE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH GOOD OPEN WATER COVERAGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN LAKE MI...THE STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SUN SHOULD TRIGGER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE RESPONSE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER...ESPECIALLY SINCE LAKE TO 850MB DELTA-T WILL BE 20+ C. HIGH RES MODELS ALL SHOW MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT DROPS S TOWARD ALGER COUNTY. THUS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW INLAND...PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE BLIZZARD EVENT THAT HAPPENED ON THE KEWEENAW WITH A MESOLOW A FEW DAYS AGO. PREFER THE LOOK OF THE 4KM HIRES NAM WINDOW AND LOCAL REGIONAL WRF THAT SHOW 950MB WINDS UP TO 45KT OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED THE MAIN IMPACT TOWARD ALGER COUNTY AND AWAY FROM MARQUETTE COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN A VERY HIGH IMPACT SNOW/BLSN EVENT IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALGER COUNTY FOR SUN NIGHT. WILL CARRY WATCH INTO MON MORNING...THOUGH WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE SUN NIGHT. BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. CONSENSUS IS FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE -27 TO -32C RANGE BY MON MORNING. MON MORNING TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0 TO -5F OVER THE E TO -15 TO -20F OVER THE W. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN TO -35 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MON AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES. AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPS MON MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...EVEN COLDER THAN THE EARLY JAN ARCTIC BLAST AS INCREASED ICE COVER COMPARED TO EARLY JAN WILL LIMIT MODERATION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI MAY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE -10F MON. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WON'T MODERATE MUCH THRU THE DAY. DOWNWIND OF STILL MOSTLY WIDE OPEN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS OVER ERN UPPER MI WILL HOVER AROUND 0F MON. GROWING ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT SNOW INTENSITY/COVERAGE INTO WRN UPPER MI. TO THE E...THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STILL ELIMINATE THE DGZ DESPITE LARGER OPEN WATER AREA/MODERATION. SO...THE AIR WILL BE FILLED WITH TINY SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS...BUT PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BRISK WINDS LEADING TO BLSN WILL LIKELY CAUSE WHITEOUTS AT TIMES. CORE OF THE COLD AIR SHIFTS E MON NIGHT/TUE...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE BRISK SIDE...KEEPING WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE -30 TO -45F RANGE INTO TUE MORNING. THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SUGGESTS SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO RESPOND EVEN AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE. OVER THE W HALF...TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY STILL NOT BREAK 0F AT MANY LOCATIONS. LES/BLSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS FAVORED BY WNW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER BY THIS TIME...SO LES MAY STRUGGLE. SLOW MODERATION CONTINUES WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF NRN CANADA. SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD -SN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WINDS MAY BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE YET ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW/BLSN EVENT FOR ERN UPPER MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WED NIGHT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FOLLOW THU...BUT THE AIR MASS WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALSO THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO PASS BY TO THE N. SOME LES MAY LINGER THRU FRI UNDER WESTERLY WINDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 COLD AIR SURGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...THE FINE FLAKES HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30MPH...VISIBILITIES HAVE FREQUENTLY BEEN REDUCED BELOW 1 MILE AT KCMX/KIWD. AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL THREE SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AT KIWD/KSAW THIS EVENING...BUT WITH WINDS STILL BEING FAVORABLE AT KCMX...HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT....EXPECT THE FINE FLAKES TO AGAIN BE GOOD AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 SEVERAL PERIODS OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE OPEN WATER REMAINS/ WILL OCCUR ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO W QUEBEC AND N LAKE HURON WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS WILL SINK TO THE MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO S QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY TO SINK ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE N PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007- 085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ005- 011. WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ014. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ012>014. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267. GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LSZ245-248-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265. GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>244-263-264. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-249>251. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...SRF MARINE...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 251440 AAA AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 940 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 937 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 BASED OFF SPOTTER REPORTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30MPH...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH THE KEWEENAW. MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE FROZEN OVER...BUT THAT ISN/T THE CASE BASED OFF SATELLITE IMAGERY LAST NIGHT AND MODIS FROM THURSDAY. ALSO...SEEING NUMEROUS LES BANDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH (GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES) DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS (3-4KFT ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING) AND DRIER AIR FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT FELT THAT THE BLOWING SNOW AND SPOTTER REPORTS OF SUB 1/2MI VISIBILITIES IN OPEN AREAS WARRENTED AN ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 552 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 LOTS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM. BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...THERE WAS A THIN BY SIGNIFICANT LINE OF SHOWERS THAT SLID ACROSS THE CWA. NOW WITH NW FLOW A DOMINANT BAND OF LES TEMPORARILY SET UP FROM/ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH E MARQUETTE COUNTY /MARQUETTE AND HARVEY...DOWN ALONG M-28/. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2IN/HR WERE SHOWN OF THE 88-D/RADAR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-35KTS OVER ALGER CO. WILL KEEP ONGOING HEADLINES GOING AS IS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER ALGER COUNTY AND E ALONG LS...AS WINDS WRAP AROUND A DEVELOPING MESO-LOW ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON. WILL LEAVE ONGOING HEADLINES GOING AS IS FOR THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IS WIND CHILLS. EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FARTHER E...EVEN THOUGH LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS FOR ICE COVERAGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT BREAKING OF THE ICE ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE AVAILABLE LES PRODUCING AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF NAMERICA (POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING) WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS AT LEAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF RIDGE AXIS AND GREATEST POSITIVE ANOMALY...BUT OVERALL THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSTREAM...A TROF WILL DOMINATE CNTRL AND ERN NAMERICA...RESULTING IN SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS HERE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND BEYOND. GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE RIDGE AND TROF WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF BITTER COLD WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PCPN... PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD -SN. THE FIRST ONE OCCURS SUN/SUN NIGHT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND A SECOND ONE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. WITH THE COLD...LES WILL BE THE RULE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... ICE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES SINCE IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/THICKEN ON LAKE SUPERIOR. FREQUENT PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AREAS OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH HAS CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER NOW. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 24HRS MAY HAVE OPENED UP A LARGE AREA OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TODAY. IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAPID ICE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE WINDS. WOULD EXPECT THAT OVER TIME OPEN WATER AREAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SMALLER AND CONFINED TO THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE LAKE ALONG THE MN NORTH SHORE AS ICE PILES UP DOWNWIND. AS USUAL...ICE COVERAGE ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SLOWER TO EXPAND SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE OCCURRING ON A REGULAR BASIS. IN THE END...WHILE LES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI...IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE COLD PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE MAY NOT YET BE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN LES INTO NE UPPER MI. IN FACT WITH THE OPEN WATER AREA BECOMING MORE OVAL SHAPED...IT MAY TEND TO SUPPORT STRONGER DOMINANT LES BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SEEN OFF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE WHEN WINDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF THOSE LAKES. BEGINNING SUN...ATTENTION WILL BE ON POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE ORIGINATES FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC AND IS CURRENTLY OVER VICTORIA ISLAND IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO. WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE WILL SPREAD -SN ACROSS WI/NRN IL/NRN IN INTO LWR MI IN THE MORNING. NRN FRINGE OF THAT -SN WILL LIKELY BRUSH THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI. THE POTENT MAIN WAVE WILL THEN SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE AROUND 150M...AND MODELS INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH AXIS OF CORE FORCING PASSING SQUARELY ACROSS UPPER MI SUN. IF ANYTHING...MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN STRONGER WITH THE FORCING OVER THE LAST 24HRS OF RUNS. LACK OF MOISTURE IS A BIG NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO 1G/KG. EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL SUN...THOUGH GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE. AS WINDS BECOME NRLY AS SHORTWAVE PASSES...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...ONE OF THE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH GOOD OPEN WATER COVERAGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN LAKE MI...THE STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SUN SHOULD TRIGGER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE RESPONSE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER...ESPECIALLY SINCE LAKE TO 850MB DELTA-T WILL BE 20+ C. HIGH RES MODELS ALL SHOW MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT DROPS S TOWARD ALGER COUNTY. THUS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW INLAND...PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE BLIZZARD EVENT THAT HAPPENED ON THE KEWEENAW WITH A MESOLOW A FEW DAYS AGO. PREFER THE LOOK OF THE 4KM HIRES NAM WINDOW AND LOCAL REGIONAL WRF THAT SHOW 950MB WINDS UP TO 45KT OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED THE MAIN IMPACT TOWARD ALGER COUNTY AND AWAY FROM MARQUETTE COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN A VERY HIGH IMPACT SNOW/BLSN EVENT IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALGER COUNTY FOR SUN NIGHT. WILL CARRY WATCH INTO MON MORNING...THOUGH WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE SUN NIGHT. BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. CONSENSUS IS FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE -27 TO -32C RANGE BY MON MORNING. MON MORNING TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0 TO -5F OVER THE E TO -15 TO -20F OVER THE W. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN TO -35 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MON AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES. AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPS MON MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...EVEN COLDER THAN THE EARLY JAN ARCTIC BLAST AS INCREASED ICE COVER COMPARED TO EARLY JAN WILL LIMIT MODERATION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI MAY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE -10F MON. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WON'T MODERATE MUCH THRU THE DAY. DOWNWIND OF STILL MOSTLY WIDE OPEN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS OVER ERN UPPER MI WILL HOVER AROUND 0F MON. GROWING ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT SNOW INTENSITY/COVERAGE INTO WRN UPPER MI. TO THE E...THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STILL ELIMINATE THE DGZ DESPITE LARGER OPEN WATER AREA/MODERATION. SO...THE AIR WILL BE FILLED WITH TINY SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS...BUT PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BRISK WINDS LEADING TO BLSN WILL LIKELY CAUSE WHITEOUTS AT TIMES. CORE OF THE COLD AIR SHIFTS E MON NIGHT/TUE...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE BRISK SIDE...KEEPING WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE -30 TO -45F RANGE INTO TUE MORNING. THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SUGGESTS SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO RESPOND EVEN AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE. OVER THE W HALF...TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY STILL NOT BREAK 0F AT MANY LOCATIONS. LES/BLSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS FAVORED BY WNW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER BY THIS TIME...SO LES MAY STRUGGLE. SLOW MODERATION CONTINUES WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF NRN CANADA. SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD -SN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WINDS MAY BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE YET ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW/BLSN EVENT FOR ERN UPPER MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WED NIGHT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FOLLOW THU...BUT THE AIR MASS WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALSO THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO PASS BY TO THE N. SOME LES MAY LINGER THRU FRI UNDER WESTERLY WINDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 725 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE QUICKLY FADES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS AS WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE OUT OF THE WNW...IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE PLAINS STATES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 SEVERAL PERIODS OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE OPEN WATER REMAINS/ WILL OCCUR ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO W QUEBEC AND N LAKE HURON WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS WILL SINK TO THE MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO S QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY TO SINK ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE N PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007- 085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ005- 011. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ012>014. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ240>245-263-264. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SRF SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 222132 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 332 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 DEEPLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CTRL GREAT LAKES HAS SWEPT A POOL OF VERY COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CWA. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NW WISC. LES HAS BEEN OCCURRING TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE SNOWBELTS HOWEVER SO FAR AMOUNTS HAVE REPORTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. MODIS IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED MUCH MORE OPEN WATER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NW WINDS WORKED ON INITIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ICE FREE WATER OFF NORTH SHORE AND CREATED A LARGER OPENING. VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A FAIRLY EVEN AMOUNT OF PLUME DEVELOPMENT IN LAKE BDRY LYR SO LATENT HEAT EXCHANGE HAS BEEN OCCURRING. MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW IS WRAPPING WEST TOWARDS ERN WISC ZONES AS OF MID AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS...LOCALLY 35 MPH+...HAVE OCCURED FROM THE BRD LAKES REGION TO TWIN PORTS THIS AFTN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 DEEP LOW OVER CTRL GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO ERN GT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. A FAVORABLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING OVER SOUTH SHORE THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY MORNING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR/GROUND REPORTS TO DETERMINE NECESSITY OF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING. GIVEN HOW LITTLE HAS FALLEN SO FAR WILL LET ADDITIONAL 5 INCH POTENTIAL BE HANDLED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE EVENING AND ENOUGH GRADIENT CONTINUES TO HAVE WIND CHILL ISSUES ONCE AGAIN. WIND CHILL WARNING LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE NE MN AND WRN WISC ZONES WITH AN ADVISORY FARTHER EAST. TOMORROW...SFC HIGH OVER DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS SO WE MAINTAIN SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC. THIS WILL ALLOW NASTY WIND CHILLS TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. LES WILL SHUT DOWN WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE DEEP LAYER AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLO CLIMO. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT AS AN UPPER S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS S/W WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO PARTS OF NW WI. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVES ON SATURDAY...AND BRING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SWD FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO S-CENTRAL MN LATE SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. ANOTHER DOMINATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FAIRLY MILD THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC DOOR OPENS UPON THE NORTHLAND AND MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. BRISK WINDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLSN OVER NE MN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYR...DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE W/SW TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -21 -3 -6 27 / 10 0 70 60 INL -29 -1 -5 25 / 10 0 70 60 BRD -22 -1 -7 31 / 0 0 40 60 HYR -21 -1 -10 28 / 40 0 60 70 ASX -15 -2 -8 27 / 90 10 60 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. WI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-006-007. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004-008- 009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 221652 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 852 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO. THEN ON THURSDAY THE STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS TO THE NORTH WITH AN UPPER LOW SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN THE VALLEYS EXPECT A DECREASE IN FOG BY THURSDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE ROSEBURG AND GRANTS PASS AREAS. ON THE RIDGES, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR. UPDATED THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY OF FOG AND SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA. && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE. FOG IS PRESENT THROUGH MANY OF THE VALLEYS IN SW OREGON AND WILL AFFECT KRBG AND KMFR WITH IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS THIS MORNING. THIS FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TO AT LEAST MVFR IN ALL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER ZONE. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014/ DISCUSSION...MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY VIA NASA/SPORT REVEALS PRETTY MUCH THE STATUS QUO THIS MORNING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S SATELLITE IMAGE AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME, IT APPEARS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE...JUST PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES (NPWMFR) ARE UP FOR THE UMPQUA/ROGUE VALLEYS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. MOST AREAS BROKE OUT YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GRANTS PASS. EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS HIGHER IN MEDFORD...UP INTO THE LOW 50S...WHILE KEEPING GRANTS PASS DOWN CLOSER TO THE MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT, SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WEST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND EXPECTED MIXING, HAVE DECIDED TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY EAST OF THE CASCADES A BIT SOONER...THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE TO MIX OUT THE INVERSION, SO HAVE CONTINUED THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY THERE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR RE- ISSUED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE FLOW EASES. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS APPEAR WEAK. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST ON THE COAST. SPILDE FIRE WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TODAY INCREASING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PEAKING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO TWO STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MID SLOPE AND RIDGE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN CHANNELED AREAS. IT HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SINCE OCTOBER AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY FUELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH RH RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH (RFWMFR) DETAILS THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ029>031. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORZ615>617-619>624. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023-024-026. CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ280>282-284. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ370. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ376. $$ CC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 221145 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 345 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION...MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY VIA NASA/SPORT REVEALS PRETTY MUCH THE STATUS QUO THIS MORNING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S SATELLITE IMAGE AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME, IT APPEARS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE...JUST PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES (NPWMFR) ARE UP FOR THE UMPQUA/ROGUE VALLEYS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. MOST AREAS BROKE OUT YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GRANTS PASS. EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS HIGHER IN MEDFORD...UP INTO THE LOW 50S...WHILE KEEPING GRANTS PASS DOWN CLOSER TO THE MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT, SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WEST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND EXPECTED MIXING, HAVE DECIDED TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY EAST OF THE CASCADES A BIT SOONER...THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE TO MIX OUT THE INVERSION, SO HAVE CONTINUED THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY THERE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR RE- ISSUED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE FLOW EASES. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS APPEAR WEAK. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST ON THE COAST. SPILDE && .AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINS LOCKED IN ALONG THE NORTH COAST FROM ABOUT BANDON NORTHWARD. INLAND...FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE IN NEARLY IDENTICAL LOCATIONS THAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND COASTAL VALLEYS. LIFR/IFR CIG AND VIS WILL IMPACT KMFR AND KRBG THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN OFF TO AT LEAST MVFR IN ALL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/SPILDE && .MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDS TONIGHT...SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY...AND BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. BEHIND A VERY WEAK FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER ZONE. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE SOUTH AT MAINLY LIGHT SPEEDS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NO MAJOR STORMS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SK && .FIRE WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TODAY INCREASING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PEAKING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO TWO STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MID SLOPE AND RIDGE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN CHANNELED AREAS. IT HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SINCE OCTOBER AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY FUELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH RH RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH (RFWMFR) DETAILS THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ029>031. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORZ615>617-619>624. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023-024-026. CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ280>282-284. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376. $$ MAS/TRW/FJB/SK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 212203 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 503 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL. HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES. THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/. AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC. WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO -12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 LINGERING LES INTO CMX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR VSBY WITH MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT SAW WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...PER SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD AND KCMX WITH MVFR BY WED MORNING AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO AN END TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS DIE DOWN. NEXT GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263>265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 212113 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 313 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH OVER NRN PLAINS HAS SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO WRN EDGE OF CWA. VIS HAVE LOWERED TO BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 3 MILES WITHIN SNOW BAND. TEMPS REMAIN CHILLY BY NORTHLAND STANDARDS WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 THROUGH TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC LOW/TROUGH WITH PRIMARY CENTER MORE LIKELY TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS BORDERLAND AND INTO THE KEEWENAW PENINSULA BY 12Z WED. WEAK OMEGA STILL FCST WITHIN THE SATURATED DGZ SO WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. WINDCHILL VALUES WILL LOWER TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WRN PART OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY MENTION IN ZFP FOR NOW AND CONCENTRATE ON SNOW/WIND OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SWRN AND SRN CWA IN THE MORNING AS ISALLOBARIC PRESS RISE CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF CWA. SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AND UNFORTUNATELY THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS WOULD BE PREFERRED. THE FCST SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG SOUTH SHORE AND GRAVITY...OR STANDING...WAVE FROM SOUTH SHORE TO SE CARLTON/NE PINE COUNTY. STANDING WAVE WOULD SUPPORT AN ARE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY THE EVENING. OF MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. MODIS IMAGERY AND EMC ICE SERVICE CHARTS SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF NEW ICE HAS FORMED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HUGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER THIS ICE COVERAGE CAN OFFSET SOME OF THE BL LATENT HEAT EXCHANGE. TOUGH TO DETERMINE AHEAD OF TIME BUT AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION HAVE OPTED FOR A LES ADVISORY WITH WORDING THAT AN EVENTUAL UPGRADE TO WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW EQL INCREASING TO 10K TO 13K FT TOMORROW AFTN WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 750 J/KG...HOWEVER HI- RES MDLS SHOWING LITTLE/NO DEVELOPMENT OF PLUMES. HAVING SAID THAT THE SNOWFALL PLUMES FOR KIWD RANGE FROM A MIN OF 2 INCHES TO A MAX OF 12 INCHES. TOMORROW NIGHT...LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE. AS EXPRESSED BEFORE...WE WILL NEED TO WAIT TO SEE HOW INITIAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BEFORE WE CAN GET MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LES EVENT. MEANWHILE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BEGIN LOWERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING WILL BE MOST LIKELY ISSUED OVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 A VERY COLD ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON THURSDAY WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEG RANGE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND ZERO. MORNING WIND CHILLS -30 TO -45 WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND -20 OR SO THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/W EXPECTED TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK WAA AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. RELATIVELY STRONG WAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER AIR...AND BUMP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT REALLY FEEL THAT WARM WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TEENS. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH YET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INTRUDE UPON THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS SAT THROUGH MON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. WILL ALSO SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LES...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMT OF ICE COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE NW. LOW-END MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR INTO LATE WED MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH BY WED MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY...UP TO 20-30 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -7 1 -19 -1 / 80 40 10 0 INL -10 -3 -28 1 / 70 30 10 0 BRD -7 1 -21 1 / 80 10 10 0 HYR -6 4 -18 1 / 80 50 30 0 ASX -4 4 -14 0 / 70 80 60 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 211635 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 835 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT, SOUTH WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST HAVE BROUGHT A SURGE OF LOW STRATUS TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. INLAND, MORNING VALLEY FOG IS PRESENT IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO PRESENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS IN DOUGLAS, JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST WITH VALLEY FOG REDEVELOPING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE. A SURGE OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOVED UP THE COAST TO AROUND FLORENCE OREGON WITH KOTH HAVING COME BELOW IFR EARLIER THIS MORNING. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS PREVAIL IN THE STRATUS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...APPLEGATE AND ROGUE VALLEYS AS WELL...INCLUDING KRBG AND KMFR. EXPECT ALL THESE AREAS TO CLEAR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE LOWER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE SAME WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE COAST THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RECENTER INLAND OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TODAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TONIGHT. THE RETURN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. /FB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014/ SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING'S SPORT MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR TALENT AND ASHLAND. BUT, ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THE SURGE OF FOG/STRATUS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 130 W AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF IT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z KMFR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MOIST LAYER DEPTH AT ABOUT 1000FT WITH RAPID DRYING ABOVE ABOUT 945MB. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS A TAD EARLIER BREAK OUT TIMES. THE DEEPER "BOWLS" LIKE GRANTS PASS MAY TAKE THE LONGEST. IT APPEARS THICKEST THERE CURRENTLY. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD AGAIN. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP BY TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT THAT'S ALL IT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 130 W. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES WITH RH RECOVERIES 30-35% IN SW OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RETROGRADE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT GOING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY NOT BE THAT NOTABLE IN A NORMAL YEAR, BUT SINCE WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY SO FAR THIS SEASON, THIS MAY RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RHS. BEYOND THAT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS WEEKEND AND WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. IT WON'T BE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WHERE A PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE BREAK THROUGH AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SPILDE CLIMATE...THE 3 PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE LAST WEEK, INDICATE A BREAK DOWN IN THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 10, JANUARY 28TH. MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE IN THIS TREND. A STRONG AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IN AND AROUND INDONESIA HAS BEEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY REFOCUSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST MJO INDICES. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM COMING OFF OF THE COAST OF ASIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEND FORTH ENOUGH ENHANCED JET STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO WEAKEN AND BUMP THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE, THEY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON RELATED DETAILS- PRIMARILY HOW FAST THIS BREAKDOWN OCCURS AND HOW FAST WE GET WET. THE CFS INDICATES THE WET PART WON'T BEGIN UNTIL THE WEEK THAT BEGINS FEBRUARY 2ND, WHEREAS THE FASTER OPERATIONAL ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A NOTABLE STORM ARRIVING ON THE 28TH OF JANUARY. BTL && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376. $$ CC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 211210 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 410 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING'S SPORT MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR TALENT AND ASHLAND. BUT, ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THE SURGE OF FOG/STRATUS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 130 W AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF IT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z KMFR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MOIST LAYER DEPTH AT ABOUT 1000FT WITH RAPID DRYING ABOVE ABOUT 945MB. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS A TAD EARLIER BREAK OUT TIMES. THE DEEPER "BOWLS" LIKE GRANTS PASS MAY TAKE THE LONGEST. IT APPEARS THICKEST THERE CURRENTLY. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD AGAIN. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP BY TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT THAT'S ALL IT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 130 W. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES WITH RH RECOVERIES 30-35% IN SW OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RETROGRADE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT GOING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY NOT BE THAT NOTABLE IN A NORMAL YEAR, BUT SINCE WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY SO FAR THIS SEASON, THIS MAY RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RHS. BEYOND THAT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS WEEKEND AND WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. IT WON'T BE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WHERE A PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE BREAK THROUGH AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SPILDE && .AVIATION...A SURGE OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM CHARLESTON SOUTHWARD BUT REMAINS OFFSHORE NORTH OF COOS BAY. KOTH REMAINS VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS PREVAIL IN THE STRATUS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND ROGUE VALLEYS AS WELL...INCLUDING KRBG AND KMFR. EXPECT ALL THESE AREAS TO CLEAR TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT UNDER THE STRATUS OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE LOWER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE SAME WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE COAST TUESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. STOCKTON && .MARINE...ANOTHER ROUND OF LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL IS NOW PEAKING AND WILL SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RECENTER INLAND OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. BTL/STOCKTON && .CLIMATE...THE 3 PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE LAST WEEK, INDICATE A BREAK DOWN IN THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 10, JANUARY 28TH. MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE IN THIS TREND. A STRONG AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IN AND AROUND INDONESIA HAS BEEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY REFOCUSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST MJO INDICES. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM COMING OFF OF THE COAST OF ASIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEND FORTH ENOUGH ENHANCED JET STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO WEAKEN AND BUMP THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE, THEY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON RELATED DETAILS- PRIMARILY HOW FAST THIS BREAKDOWN OCCURS AND HOW FAST WE GET WET. THE CFS INDICATES THE WET PART WON'T BEGIN UNTIL THE WEEK THAT BEGINS FEBRUARY 2ND, WHEREAS THE FASTER OPERATIONAL ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A NOTABLE STORM ARRIVING ON THE 28TH OF JANUARY. BTL && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376. $$ MAS/JRS/BTL/FJB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 210940 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 440 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REST OF THE U.S. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE COMING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT. NAM ALSO BRINGS IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE I270K-I285K SURFACES TONIGHT. GOING FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO IT EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TO HAVE DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HEAD NORTH WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. CONTINUED TREND OF HAVING LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING IN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH SW WINDS. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR THE ERN CWA FOR TODAY WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE ACROSS ALGER...NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND WESTERN LUCE COUNTIES AND COULD SEE UP TO 6 INCHES MORE OF SNOW TODAY. AS FOR WIND CHILLS...WILL LET ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 16Z AS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. HAVE GOTTEN DOWN TO -25F. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 435 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS DUE TO RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH OVER EAST TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND WEDNESDAY AFTN AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES FOR NW FLOW AREAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN/EVENING AS WINDS BACK STEADILY MORE NW AND INVERSIONS FALL OFF TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS IN THIS TYPE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS. AFTER SOME MODERATION IN THE CHILL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DIVES INTO THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND LEADING TO MORE LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NW FLOW AREAS OF ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH. SHORTWAVE WITH BATCH OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO MOST OF CWA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT LGT SNOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY EVEN ALONG THE WI BORDER AND LK MICHIGAN. BIGGER STORY BY FAR ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE INCREASING SETUP FOR HIGH IMPACT WIND AND SNOW EVENT IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. RIGHT FROM THE GET GO...STILL THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FM THIS EVENT WILL BE OVER MARQUETTE AND EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING CYCLONIC NNE-NE FLOW 25-35 KTS...H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS/EQL/S PUSHING TOWARD 15KFT. RESULTING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY IS IN A WORD...EXTREME. UPSLOPE LIFTING ONLY ADDS TO THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL. SETUP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR SEEING INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES FOR MANY HOURS LATE AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING AS MESOLOW THAT FORMS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT PUSHES ONSHORE. TWO INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THIS IS THE SNOW ASPECT. BLYR WINDS OVER 30 KTS SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE BLSN/DRSN WITH FREQUENT WHITEOUTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CONFIDENT WARNING CONDITIONS WILL VERIFY IN THESE AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...REALLY DO NOT THINK THIS IS WHERE THE ONLY HAZARD WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS NOT AS IDEAL FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTHWEST /KEWEENAW PENINSULA/ AND INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN /GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES/ IT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND AGAIN LIKE BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLSN/DRSN AS PRESSURE RISE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. ALSO...SINCE THE GREATEST HAZARD FOR THOSE AREAS WILL SLIGHTLY EARLIER...DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING PUTTING THIS RIGHT DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE HOME FROM WORK AND SCHOOL...FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH TO PUT OUT A WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. OF ALL THESE ADDITIONAL AREAS...BEST CHANCE TO SEE CLOSE TO WARNING SNOWFALL WILL BE TOWARD IWD AND WHITE PINE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW CYCLONIC NNE FLOW WITH INVERSIONS 7-10KFT. ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS A CONCERN BUT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGE FROM MONDAY AFTN INDICATED OPEN WATER NORTH OF KIWD TOWARD ISLE ROYALE...WHICH IS THE WHERE THIS NNE FLOW WOULD BENEFIT. LATER SHIFTS CAN LOOK INTO THINGS FURTHER AND DECIDE WHETHER A HIGH END ADVY OR WARNING IS NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. WOULD HAVE JUST DONE AN SPS ON THIS SHIFT IF IT WAS NOT FOR THE STRONG WINDS/BLSN/DRSN AND POTENTIAL WHITEOUTS/REDUCED VSBY THAT MAY OCCUR DURING THE PEAK AFTN TRAVEL TIME. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHER POTENTIAL HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER WOULD BE OVER THE KEWEENAW LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME WEST WINDS OVER 30 KTS COMBINE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR LGT SNOW FM SFC LOW CROSSING ONTARIO TO RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF POOR VSBY AND IMPACTS ON TRAVEL. WEEKEND FEATURES ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AS H85 TEMPS FALL BACK BLO -28C. LOWEST TEMPS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULD SEE FALLING TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING OVER SNOWBELTS OF THE EAST. DGZ WILL BE NON-EXISTANT SO MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMALL SNOWFLAKES. DEEP WINTER MARCHES ON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 A COLD N WIND BRINGING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY BACK SW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TEMPORARILY. THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. THUS...CONDITIONS MAY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IS USUALLY THE CASE DURING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. KCMX WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY -SHSN...AND CONDITIONS THERE WILL LIKELY VARY BTWN MVFR AND IFR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF LIFR AS WELL. -SHSN AT KCMX WON'T END UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS BACK TO THE SW. KIWD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH -SHSN AT TIMES REDUCING VIS TO IFR. BACKING WINDS COMBINED WITH ICE COVER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN OCNL MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT...KSAW WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THRU THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS EVENING MAY BRING -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO AN END TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS DIE DOWN. NEXT GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006- 007-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ249-250-266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245-264-265. GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ240>248-263>265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...07  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 122058 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 358 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 STEADY S WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP UP WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. WAS A BIT SURPRISED TO SEE IWD JUMP UP TO 37F THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ENDED UP BEING A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND MIXED PRECIP MOVED N INTO LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRICKY FCST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS AS SFC/NEAR SFC TEMPS FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE COUNTIES NEAR LAKE MI...WHERE A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING IN FROM W UPPER MI /CURRENTLY SET UP OVER CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/. BETTER FGEN/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z MONDAY DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI. GIVEN THE SURGE OF WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED AIR THIS AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST LOWS FOR TONIGHT. THE RESULT IS A MIX OF MAINLY RAIN AND SNOW FOR NEAR LAKE MI. STILL...EVEN IF THE THERMOMETERS ARE REPORTING 32 OR 34F...SURFACES THEMSELVES MAY STILL BE QUITE COOL. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ALERT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING NEAR LAKE MI THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE PRECIP WILL MAINLY FALL E INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...SO WILL NOT HAVE THE SPS GOING PAST 04Z FOR NOW. MODEL MIN TEMP SPREAD FOR TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS BIG AS THIS MORNING...WHERE FCST LOWS RANGED FROM 10-27F...WITH THE MEDIAN AND MEAN BEING 22F. WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TONIGHT...WENT NEAR 30F OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA...AND THEN INCREASED THEM A BIT AS NOTED ABOVE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK SECONDARY BOUNDARY LES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE W. ALREADY HAVE REPORTS OF SNOW BEHIND THE LOW OVER S SASKATCHEWAN. ADDING LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MIX WILL ONLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DID NOT CHANGE POPS MUCH FOR MONDAY. LES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP OVER SW LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD VIEW /MODIS IMG/ SINCE THE 8TH OF JANUARY. WHILE TEMPS HAVE BEEN COLD...WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME BREAKING OF QUICK FORMING ICE. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS W OF IWD TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE LES GOING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE NEAR-SFC WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT TOO WESTERLY OR OUT OF THE W-SW FROM MID AFTERNOON ON TO KEEP MUCH GOING. OTHERWISE...WITH RATIOS NEARING 17:1...COULD HAVE 1 TO NEAR 2IN OF SNOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 A FAIRLY ACTIVE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND ONLY VARY ON THE SMALLER SCALE SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY...SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY AT 12Z MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND WAVE WHEN THEY COINCIDE WHICH LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION LOCATION. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE VERY FIRST PART OF MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER 850MB AIR WILL SURGE IN ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND MID DAY AND THEN THE EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF IS VERY MINIMAL/BLOTCHY OVER THE WEST AND HAVE TO WONDER IF THAT IS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE THEY HAVE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUDY SKIES HAVE LIMITED ABILITY TO SEE COVERAGE OF ICE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...BUT WOULD HAVE TO BELIEVE IT IS LESS THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM/GEM-REGIONAL DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE SEEN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS PAST WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER A DRIER START TO THE DAY WILL TREND THE WEST UP TOWARDS LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS A TOUCH HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING. SINCE MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE WITHIN THE DGZ ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...HAVE TRENDED SNOW RATIOS UP THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE LOW 20S TO 1. EXPECT THIS LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND INCREASE UNCERTAINTY. THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COME FROM THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN LOW DEVELOPS IN ALBERTA AND MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE WAVE. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. BUT WHERE THEY DIFFER IS IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS WAVE AND HOW COLD THE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE. FIRST FOR THE WAVE...MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER AND THE RESULTING QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THUS...WILL TREND POPS UP OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA TO CHANCE VALUES. THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK LEADS TO LESS CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND SINCE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE BETWEEN -16C AND -18C...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOW ALSO AFFECT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND IN TURN THE LAKE EFFECT LOCATION. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE 925-850MB WINDS TO BE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS IN THOSE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS (5-6KFT RANGE) WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT THE MORE FAVORABLE SNOW RATIOS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ...SO HAVE LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE INCHES FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS ON HIGHER POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS QUICKLY BACK SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...GEM/ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHERE THEY DIFFER THOUGH IS WITH THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERAL IDEA FROM THE 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR THE LOW TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLIDE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC (POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY) SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT ON THE BACKSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AT LEAST -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY UNDER STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE STRONG WINDS (BL WINDS 25-35KTS) WILL LIKELY BREAK UP THE DENDRITES AND LEAD TO SMALLER FLAKES AND LOWER ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ALSO BE EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CREATING POOR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEIGHTENED WORDING/LEVELS IN THE HWO/EHWO...ALONG WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS RIGHT AWAY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL BEFORE RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY. BUT THE CLIPPER ON THURSDAY WILL BRING TUMBLING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TEENS. AT THIS POINT...THAT COLD SHOT OF AIR LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WE SHOULD SEE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 201 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 QUICK MOVING REDUCTION IN VIS THAT BROUGHT A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TO ALL 3 SITES THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXITED ACROSS N KEWEENAW COUNTY AND OFF INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE S...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT AT THE AIRPORTS. AFTER THE EXIT OF THE MVFR TO IFR MIXED PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND CMX AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND COOLER AIR RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FCST IS A BIT TRICKIER AT SAW...WHERE MAINLY DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDES IN ON THE W WINDS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 A FEW S GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL LINGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR GUSTS AROUND 30KTS OVER MAINLY S CENTRAL/E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW 35KT GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL GET RID OF THE GALE WATCH...AND JUST GO WITH THE MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A QUICK MOVING LOW WILL THEN SINK FROM SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW CROSSING LAKE WINNIPEG LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SW GALES OF 35-40KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONGEST EAST. THEN N-NW GALES 35-NEAR 45KTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...STRONGEST CENTRAL AND E. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KKEY 090910 AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 410 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014 .DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL...(700-200 MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300 AM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A ROBUST BROADLY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE CONUS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OLD MEXICO THE GULF OF MEXICO...CUBA AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EVIDENT OVERHEAD OF THE KEYS ABOVE 650 MB....WITH 50 TO 75 KNOTS AT 250 MB. AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 300 AM DETAIL THE MAIN AXIS OF A 1033-1035 MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE OF ARCTIC ORIGINS PRESENTLY ORIENTED FROM NEW JERSEY SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. CLOSER TO THE KEYS...THERE A WARM SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM ANDROS ISLANDS SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS CUBA...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED THAT A FRONTAL INVERSION WAS ALOFT ONLY AT ABOUT 700 FEET AGL LAST EVENING...BUT ATTM STRATUS BASES HAVE FALLEN EVEN LOWER OVER THE KEYS...WITH SOLID OVERCAST NOW AT 300-400 FEET AGL AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS. LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING ALSO ILLUSTRATED THAT VERY GOOD LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REMAINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE FROM NEAR 15 KNOTS RIGHT AT THE SURFACE...BECOMING MAINLY EASTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM 500 TO 3000 FEET AGL. .CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DETECT PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL AND DRIZZLE RIGHT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS JUST OFFSHORE...WITH MOST OF IT CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLANDS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION MENTIONED ABOVE AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...LOW CLOUD COVER SURROUNDS THE ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SHALLOW WATERS...AND IT CAN BE INFERRED THERE IS LIKELY A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK WITH BASES AOA 400 FEET AGL...AND THERE IS ANOTHER CLOUD DECK ABOVE THAT WITH BASES AOA FL030-050. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE STILL RECORDING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY...WITH SMITH SHOAL LIGHT CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ATTM. .FORECAST...TODAY THRU THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE KEYS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT ELUSIVE. UNTIL THAT TIME...A SOLID LOW CLOUD/STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS UNTIL THAT BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH. LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS SEA SURFACE ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATED THAT ALL SHALLOW WATERS AR AROUND 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER...SO ANY THREAT FOR FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL ATTM...A FEW PATCHES OF SEA FOG COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SHALLOWER WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM LINE...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. THEREAFTER BY THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIFT...BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH JUST SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT BETWEEN 500-200 MB...WILL STILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL ONLY GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN COVERAGES OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...MOVING FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 40 NORTH 60 WEST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WOULD EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO END THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT CLOSE BY. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER IN SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER BIT OF A SURGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SURFACE FRONT DISSIPATES...AND THE LOCAL GRADIENT IS INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING. THEN ON SATURDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...REACHING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY BUT STALLING ON MONDAY. LOCAL WINDS SHOULD BOX AROUND TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND LIGHTEN UP...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY...THEN CLOCKING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE LOWEST ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD AT 20 PERCENT FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT ON SATURDAY. HI AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY. EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE NOT THAT SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER GOOD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT DO SUGGEST THAT 1025 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA SOUTHWARD DURING TUESDAY MORNING...SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HI AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IF THIS SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. SINCE ITS INDICATED BY THE MODELS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THRU TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE REST OF THIS MORNING FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND REBECCA SHOAL AND THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. ITS POSSIBLE THAT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ELEVATED SEAS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON. HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT CAUTIONARY HEADLINES MAY BE INSERTED FRIDAY NIGHT IN HAWK CHANNEL...THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW HEADLINE OR ADVISORY STATUS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION... IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A PERIODIC OCCURRENCE AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING OUT AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THOUGH SURFACE OBS WILL BE LIGHTER...STRONGER AND GUSTY ENE WINDS WILL BE SEEN JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH 3KFT. && .CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN 1953, A RARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED TWO MINUTES OF HAIL AND A 73 MPH GUST IN KEY WEST. THE RAINFALL FOR THE DAY WAS RECORDED AS 3.38 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL TOTAL STILL STANDS AS A DAILY RECORD FOR JANUARY 9TH. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ033&042>044-052>055-072>075 THRU 16Z && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 77 73 78 75 / 50 40 20 20 MARATHON 79 74 82 75 / 50 40 20 20 && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.............DAF AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.......MSB VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 011238 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 338 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS. WILL USE A BLEND AFTER THAT TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...537 DAM HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 505 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER ILLIAMNA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE KOBUK BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN NUNAVUT. A 508 DAM LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AT 509 DAM BY THURSDAY MORNING MOVING NORTH TO OVER THE MOUTH OF NORTON SOUND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SHARP RIDGE WILL PUSH 537 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT..THE RIDGE THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE...1035MB HIGH NEAR 80N 155W WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. A 979MB LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 1004MB. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. A 1013MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 977 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO ADAK THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES EAST IT WILL SPIN SOME MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ARCTIC...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY START DIMINISHING FROM THE EAST. BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE COASTAL AREAS REDUCING VISIBILITY...BUT SINCE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN UP FOR SO LONG MOST OF THE SNOW IS ALREADY BLOWN AWAY. MODIS 11 MICRON SATELLITE AT 0730Z SHOWS THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AS A WARM PLUME EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST. STRONG WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES CAN ALSO SHOW UP AS MUCH WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING AREA. CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH SOME STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AS USUAL. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SOUTH OF AMBLER TODAY...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION...MAY AN INCH FOR MOST PLACES. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AROUND MCGRATH. SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING IN THE YUKON DELTA AND WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS MORNING WILL TAPER DOWN LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS. INTERIOR...CLOUDY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS ARE CHINOOKING OUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH...HOWEVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE TODAY WITH HIGHS 15 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235. && $$ SDB DEC 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 311327 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 427 AM AKST TUE DEC 31 2013 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BUT ONLY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. MODELS STAY FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MAJOR ELEMENTS...BUT START SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING AND EVOLUTION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...537 DAM HIGH REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR 78N 155W EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. OVER THE ARCTIC THE RIDGE BE QUASI STATIONARY. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY AS A BRANCH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ROTATES INTO THE AREA. A 505 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...THEN BE LOCATED ANYWHERE FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TRANSITION TO EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. OVER THE INTERIOR...LIGHT FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE...1035MB HIGH NEAR 79N 149W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1038MB CENTER OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE 1035MB HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH ABOUT 200 NM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SO WINDY CONDITION WILL PERSIST. WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW WILL PUSH A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE INTERIOR AND UP THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WISE...MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW FOR PLACES THAT GET PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC...WINDS CONTINUE AND WILL PICK UP ALONG THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OF SO. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE COASTAL AREAS REDUCING VISIBILITY. MODIS 11 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS SOME STRATUS UP OVER THE COAST WHICH WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC. INLAND CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. IN THE BROOKS RANGE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE GUSTING TO 45 MPH IN PASSES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NONDESCRIPT FLOW NEXT 12 HOURS AS LOW PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR...THOUGH MODIS DOES SHOW STRATUS HANGING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS. WINDS OVER SUMMITS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM NORTH OF FAIRBANKS SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES INTO THE EVENING AND HAVE WORDING CONCERNING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ELLIOTT HIGHWAY. TANANA VALLEY JET CONTINUES AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD WORDING ABOUT STRONG WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 301258 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 358 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES OUT TO AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO IN ALL THE MODELS. THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF DIFFERENCES AS YOU GET FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUN. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST. WILL USE A BLEND FOR WINDS SPEEDS OVER THE AREA AS NAM IS TOO HIGH AND GFS IS TOO LOW. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...539 DAM HIGH REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR 75N 143W EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. OVER THE ARCTIC THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER CANADA REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY. WEAK FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. OVER THE WEST COAST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING NORTH TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...NO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION UNTIL WE SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION UP THE WEST COAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES NORTH. SURFACE...1037MB HIGH NEAR 77N 140W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1038MB CENTER OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. DECAYING OCCLUSION OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NRTHWEST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST FROM ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO YAKUTAT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO EAGLE BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TH ARCTIC PLAIN CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST CREATING STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS PATTERN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. ARCTIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE COAST EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND OVER THE MARINE AREAS EAST OF BARROW...ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES AGAIN TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO AROUND 35KT SO EXPECT PASS WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH LOCALLY...WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST WILL MOVE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ARCTIC TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 MICRON IMAGERY AT 0743Z SHOWS STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT IS MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE SIBERIAN COAST...WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND EXIT THE WEST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHICH WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. EAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AROUND UNALAKLEET WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING TO AROUND 20 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES OUT. INTERIOR...MODIS SHOW STRATUS HANGING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRATUS AND FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TODAY AND DISSIPATE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING OR COOLING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE HIGH IN THE ZERO TO 15 BELOW RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 25 BELOW RANGE. WINDS OVER SUMMITS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND HAVE WORDING CONCERNING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ELLIOTT HIGHWAY. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 291657 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 857 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THE MOISTURE LAYER AROUND 1700 FEET WITH RAPID DRYING ABOVE THAT. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE LOW. THE FOG IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LIFT TO A LOW OVERCAST BRIEFLY BEFORE FOG RETURNS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT FOR US. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER. -PETRUCELLI && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE A PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BRINGING INLAND VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG WEST OF THE CASCADES. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND ROGUE VALLEYS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CIGS MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY, BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AND ALSO SLOWEST TO IMPROVE THE ROGUE VALLEY. ANY IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR MAY ONLY BE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FOG RETURNS EARLY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD VALLEY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES RETURNS IN FOR FOR THESE AREAS ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WHICH INCLUDES THE COAST, SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE AREA EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013/ DISCUSSION...HI RESOLUTION SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICRO-PHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUD LAYER IS MORE STRATUS THAN FOG NEAR ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE ENCOUNTERED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SURROUNDING ROSEBURG...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAMAS MOUNTAIN AND ALSO THE PASSES SOUTH OF THE CITY NEAR CANYONVILLE. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE MAINTAINED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. A SHALLOWER MOIST LAYER IS EVIDENT IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG FROM GRANTS PASS TO MEDFORD. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE SOUTH ENDS OF BOTH THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ROGUE VALLEY HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS EARLY HOUR IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THE RIDGE AT ITS STRONGEST TODAY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXING OUT OF THE MOIST LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO WE'LL REMAIN COLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HERE IN MEDFORD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. ASHLAND THOUGH SHOULD GET SOME SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY TO WARM INTO THE 40S. MEANWHILE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES AROUND THE AREA. THE BROOKINGS EFFECT WILL BE IN FULL FORCE TODAY AND IS ALREADY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 3AM! MODEL 975 TEMPS ARE INDICATING AROUND 17C THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS THERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON MONDAY. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL NO APPRECIABLE MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG. SO, EXPECT ANOTHER DISMAL DAY AROUND MEDFORD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE SURROUNDING HILLS. IT WILL ALSO BE A COOLER DAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND MORE MARINE AIR RETURNS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ZIP OFF TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT BEST WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IN COOS OR DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE MORE MIXING AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION TUESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG REMAINING IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, SO IT'LL BE DRY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THE RIDGE PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY, BUT ALL INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN WE'VE SEEN IN AWHILE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS A TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND OR IF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT REBUILDS OFFSHORE AGAIN. WE'LL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ023>026. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376. $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 291315 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 415 AM AKST SUN DEC 29 2013 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS PRETTY SIMILAR OUT TO AROUND 72 HOURS OR SO. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...PATTERN IS PRETTY FLAT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. 517 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MEANDER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. A 530 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THEN REFORM ON MONDAY AND BACK ITS WAY OVER THE UPPER YUKON AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST TO OVER WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A 511 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY MORNING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 504 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SAND POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 508 DAM...THE LOW WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT 514 DAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND SPIN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH ADVECTION GOING ON. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE...1042MB HIGH NEAR 78N 145W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1036MB CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY...BUT IT DOES WEAKEN AS TIME PASSES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FORTYMILE WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES UNTIL IT MOVES EAST...THEN PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WHEN IT BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY. SNOW ON THE WEST COAST WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SNOW ENDING IN THE MIDDLE YUKON BY THIS EVENING AND SOME LINGERING SNOW FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH ENDING MONDAY EVENING. 966MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SAND POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SPIN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE ONGOING EVENT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM THURSDAY. ARCTIC...RIDGE OFFSHORE AND TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS NORTH OF POINT LAY. SOME LOCAL ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST. ARCTIC HAZE AND PATCHY FOG INLAND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY FLAT NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA SO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES FROM POINT LAY SOUTH IF ANYTHING. SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES PICKING UP TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30KTS SO EXPECT PASS WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH LOCALLY...WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS OF UP TO 3 INCHES BEFORE THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE WEST TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. MODIS 11 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS EAST OF SHISHMAREF AT 0839Z THAT WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY SO WILL ADD SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO THAT AREA. LOW MOVING UP THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK WILL CREATE SIMILAR ISSUES TO THE ONGOING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH PUSHES UP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH. INTERIOR...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERALLY FALLING APART OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AS IT DRAGS TO THE EAST. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE PEDRO DOME NEXRAD OVERHEAD OF FAIRBANKS. SOUTH AND WEST OF LIVENGOOD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO AND LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW. NORTHEAST OF THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 45 BELOW INTO WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORIES FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER SUMMITS TODAY AND EXTEND THEM INTO MONDAY. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 291200 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 400 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013 .DISCUSSION...HI RESOLUTION SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICRO-PHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUD LAYER IS MORE STRATUS THAN FOG NEAR ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE ENCOUNTERED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SURROUNDING ROSEBURG...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAMAS MOUNTAIN AND ALSO THE PASSES SOUTH OF THE CITY NEAR CANYONVILLE. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE MAINTAINED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. A SHALLOWER MOIST LAYER IS EVIDENT IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG FROM GRANTS PASS TO MEDFORD. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE SOUTH ENDS OF BOTH THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ROGUE VALLEY HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS EARLY HOUR IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THE RIDGE AT ITS STRONGEST TODAY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXING OUT OF THE MOIST LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO WE'LL REMAIN COLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HERE IN MEDFORD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. ASHLAND THOUGH SHOULD GET SOME SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY TO WARM INTO THE 40S. MEANWHILE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES AROUND THE AREA. THE BROOKINGS EFFECT WILL BE IN FULL FORCE TODAY AND IS ALREADY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 3AM! MODEL 975 TEMPS ARE INDICATING AROUND 17C THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS THERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON MONDAY. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL NO APPRECIABLE MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG. SO, EXPECT ANOTHER DISMAL DAY AROUND MEDFORD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE SURROUNDING HILLS. IT WILL ALSO BE A COOLER DAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND MORE MARINE AIR RETURNS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ZIP OFF TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT BEST WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IN COOS OR DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE MORE MIXING AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION TUESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG REMAINING IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, SO IT'LL BE DRY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THE RIDGE PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY, BUT ALL INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN WE'VE SEEN IN AWHILE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS A TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND OR IF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT REBUILDS OFFSHORE AGAIN. WE'LL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPILDE && .AVIATION...A PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BRINGING INLAND VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG WEST OF THE CASCADES. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND ROGUE VALLEYS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOG MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CIGS MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AND ALSO SLOWEST TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. ANY IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DUE TO FOG SEEDING. LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE WILL BE PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT. HOWEVER AREAS OF VALLEY IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA, ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS. THEN SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOR FOR THESE AREAS ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE...WHICH INCLUDES THE COAST, SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE AREA EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CC && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ023>026. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376. $$ MAS/FJB/CC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPIH 251547 AFDPIH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID 847 AM MST WED DEC 25 2013 .UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY/AREA WEBCAMS PUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND STRETCHING INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY AT SURFACE UNDER INVERSION LAYER 750-700MB THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME BREAKUP/EROSION OF THE LAYER EXPECTED FROM THE EDGES THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH NEW 12Z NAM GUIDANCE KEEPING UPPER SNAKE PLAIN IN THE SOUP THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WX/SKY GRIDS TO MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND HIGHER CLOUD PERCENTAGE THROUGH THAT REGION. NO OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED. DMH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM MST WED DEC 25 2013/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODIS FOG/LOW CLOUD IMAGERY DOING A FAIR JOB THIS MORNING AT PICKING UP THE STRATUS IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING DOWN TO REXBURG. NAM LOW LEVEL RH SHOWING THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG...SO HAVE KEPT THAT IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE MAIN STREAM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE UPPER JET AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF SHIFTING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN ALONG THE WA/OR COAST. GFS/NAM KEEPING THINGS RATHER DRY WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. HINSBERGER LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A DISTURBANCE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY...BRUSHING THE LOST RIVER RANGE AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BACK SOME...FAVORING THE HIGHER PEAKS. THERE IS A SECOND DISTURBANCE DROPPING ALONG THE DIVIDE ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS THE ECMWF KEEPS A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON THE DOWN STREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...COLD DRAINAGE OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE ARCO DESERT AREA IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE AT NIGHT. RS AVIATION...LOW STRATUS TRIES TO REDEVELOP OVER NIGHT IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF KIDA. THE DOWN PLAIN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ACTING TO THIN OUT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH TIME...SO THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A 2000-3000 FT AGL DECK SHOWING UP. KPIH...KSUN....AND KBYI SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RS && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPIH 250939 AFDPIH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID 239 AM MST WED DEC 25 2013 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODIS FOG/LOW CLOUD IMAGERY DOING A FAIR JOB THIS MORNING AT PICKING UP THE STRATUS IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EXTENDING DOWN TO REXBURG. NAM LOW LEVEL RH SHOWING THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG...SO HAVE KEPT THAT IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE MAIN STREAM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE UPPER JET AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF SHIFTING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN ALONG THE WA/OR COAST. GFS/NAM KEEPING THINGS RATHER DRY WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. HINSBERGER .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS MAINTAIN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A DISTURBANCE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY...BRUSHING THE LOST RIVER RANGE AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BACK SOME...FAVORING THE HIGHER PEAKS. THERE IS A SECOND DISTURBANCE DROPPING ALONG THE DIVIDE ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS THE ECMWF KEEPS A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON THE DOWN STREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...COLD DRAINAGE OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE ARCO DESERT AREA IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE AT NIGHT. RS && .AVIATION...LOW STRATUS TRIES TO REDEVELOP OVER NIGHT IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF KIDA. THE DOWN PLAIN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ACTING TO THIN OUT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH TIME...SO THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A 2000-3000 FT AGL DECK SHOWING UP. KPIH...KSUN....AND KBYI SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RS && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 200443 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1043 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013 .DISCUSSION...SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AS ANTICIPATED PER METARS/SPORT HYBRID MODIS-VIIRS-GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. NAM DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 NM. SREF PROBABILITIES LOW WITH REGARD TO VSBYS BELOW 1 NM. LOCAL WRF-ARW DOES NOT LOWER VSBYS UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. THUS WL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSY. LOWER WIND OVER LAND OWING TO RECENT METARS/EXPECTED CONDITIONS WHEN CONSIDERING 0-1KM NAM LAPSE RATES. MAINTAINED SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE WHEN CONSIDERING SPORT SST COMPOSITE VALUES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE. AVIATION...NLLJ ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS OF AVIATION CONCERNS AS ITS STRENGTH INCREASES LLWS AND FOCUSES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CIG RESTRICTIONS RATHER THAN VIS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO OCNLY BECOME IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN SLOWLY LIFT AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER S CA AND NRN BAJA CA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGD TO MOV ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH FRI. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND CONTINUE TO USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX. EXPECTING A MIX OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W CWA WHERE THE LLJ IS NOT AS STRONG. AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH...IF ANY...DENSE FOG ACROSS S TX AS SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO KEEP THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MIXED. THAT BEING SAID...SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP TONIGHT AND COULD ADVECT INLAND AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE LLJ WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX TO THE SFC ON FRI...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW MUCH WEAKER LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE MIXING. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SPEEDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS LOWER THAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW THE LLJ SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE TX COAST AND OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS BUT WITH MUCH LESS MIXING...MAKING FOR A TRICKY WIND FCST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHCS TONIGHT OR FRI AS LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN A CAPPING INVERSION. KEPT 5-10 POPS WITH THE MENTION OF -SHRA'S FRI MORNING. RAIN CHCS THEN INCREASE FRI NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. KEPT THE 30 POP ACROSS THE NE BUT LOWERED TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. FEEL RAIN CHCS WILL BE EVEN LOWER FOR THE WESTERN CWA FRI NIGHT DUE TO LARGE CIN VALUES...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP ACROSS MEX AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AREA. THUS KEPT THE 20 FOR THE WEST AS WELL. HAVE INTRODUCED -TSRA FOR THE NE CWA FOR LATE FRI NIGHT DUE TO MODERATE CAPE...LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN/CAP...DEEPER MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RRQ OF APPROACHING JET. MARINE...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM MOD TO STRONG THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA'S FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING SEA FOG TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE REGION. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DUG DEEP TO THE SOUTH...INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LINED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...AS LOW LEVEL WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS SATURDAY MORNING... TAPERING OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. DESPITE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHWEST...HAVE NOT COMPLETELY REMOVED POPS OUT WEST IN THE MORNING...WITH THE THINKING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 135KT JET STREAK. DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE THESE PARAMETERS RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. FIRST DAY OF WINTER IS SATURDAY...AND WE MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPS AT CRP/LRD/VCT. MILD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND GLANCING BLOW OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WIND DROPS OFF INLAND TUESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...LEADING TO LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND. LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURNING CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE...AND WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 MPH. WITH FUELS NOW CURED FROM RECENT FREEZE AND FROST...THIS COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 79 68 83 52 / 10 10 20 30 0 VICTORIA 64 78 67 79 48 / 10 10 30 70 10 LAREDO 62 86 67 83 50 / 0 10 20 20 0 ALICE 64 84 68 85 51 / 10 10 20 20 0 ROCKPORT 65 73 68 78 51 / 10 10 30 50 10 COTULLA 58 82 64 79 46 / 0 10 20 30 0 KINGSVILLE 66 83 69 86 53 / 10 10 20 20 0 NAVY CORPUS 66 75 70 79 54 / 10 10 20 30 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KOAX 162123 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 323 PM CST MON DEC 16 2013 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING MODIS IMAGERY WAS STILL SHOWING AREA OF SNOW COVER OVER THE NRN FRINGE OF THE CWA WELL AS EXTREME SW IA AND EXTREME E-CNTRL NEB. MODERATING TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THOUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT MELTING BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES...WHICH IS THE MAIN ISSUE WITHIN THE NEAR TERM PDS. PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE CONUS THRU MIDWEEK AS AMPLIFIES RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE AND IS REPLACED WITH POS TILT LONGWAVE TROF ENVELOPING THE WRN CONUS. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SRN PORTION WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA BY THURSDAY WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY RACES ACROSS CANADA/NRN TIER STATES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN ITS PLUNGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WED NIGHT THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY. TIME- SERIES/METEOGRAM SFC TEMP/WIND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY SHOULD BE PUSHING THRU THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME AROUND NOON WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA SHORTLY AFTER. AS A MATTER OF FACT...NON-DIURNAL SITUATION A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH FALLING TEMPS ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL MIX OF FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN. FORTUNATELY ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...THUS NO REAL THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WHERE SN ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. DEE .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...A COUPLE OF SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED... AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A 1029MB HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN. HAVE SOME FREEZING PRECIP/SLEET/SNOW. AGAIN...ANY AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT. COLD HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...BUT LOOK TO BE BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES WITH FLURRIES FARTHER NORTH. ANOTHER 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY...RETREATING TO THE EAST MONDAY. ZAPOTOCNY && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. DEWALD && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ 99/99  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 070255 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 955 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH NO SNOW OR ONLY FLURRIES TOWARD THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. MEAGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DISPLAY THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE SHIELD OF SNOW NOW REACHING THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FARTHER WEST INTO OHIO. WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS TO 3-4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -13C BY MORNING. HERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE GREATER AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE WNW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...LIMITING OR EVEN ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE. LATER OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE ALOFT LATER AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM ABOUT KFZY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. A SPECIAL 12Z 1.3KM RUN OF THE NAM FIRE WX NESTED RUN ALONG WITH OTHER HIGH RES RUNS SHOW THIS IDEA NICELY...WITH SOME STREAMERS LATE IN THE DAY IN ROUGHLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ANY CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER BY THE END OF THE DAY. IT IS WORTHY OF NOTING THAT THE MODIS ESTIMATED LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5C WARMER OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE COMPARED TO THE WESTERN END. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST A BIT MORE LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND EVENTUAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN SHORELINE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A LINGERING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...THESE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY MINIMAL IN SCOPE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 5-6 KFT...AND A RATHER LIMITED SNOW GROWTH REGION/LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE BELOW THE CAPPING INVERSION. DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES AT WORST...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA JUST QUIET...DRY...AND COLD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM 10-15 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GET QUICKLY SQUELCHED DURING THE MORNING THANKS TO A FURTHER LOWERING OF THE CAP AND THE WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ALBEIT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY/S...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30 AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A COMPLEX AND DOUBLE-BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO JAMES BAY...AND A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/ MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CONNECTING SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD HELP FORCE A ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THIS COMING BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...A MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST THE PRECIP STARTING OFF AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ALSO THAT THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...FEEL THAT IT/S BEST TO JUST CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY...THOUGH ONE MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/S LOWS TO COME FAIRLY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN FORCING READINGS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BETWEEN LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE FALLING BACK SOME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BY MONDAY EVENING...OUR AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET EVEN COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER A STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS STATED...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PRODUCE BOTH A FAIRLY LOW CAP OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AND NOTABLE DRYING BELOW THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIMITED IN NATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONFINED POPS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TO THE LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -15C TUESDAY AND TO -18C/-20C BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH A PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE LOOKS TO BECOME MOST FAVORABLE SOMETIME FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE. AT THIS STILL-DISTANT JUNCTURE...DEPICTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT IN TIME REMAINS A HIGHLY DIFFICULT EXERCISE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH... WHICH WILL PRODUCE UNDULATIONS IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT BOTH BAND PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. THIS STATED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING THE MOST NOTEWORTHY OF THESE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A MORE STEADY-STATE WESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AFTER THAT TIME. STAY TUNED! OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING OFF INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...EXPECT THAT READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE TAF CYCLE...HOWEVER EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE COMING HOURS. LIGHT...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT...WHILE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC AIRFIELDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE KART AIRFIELD. THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND LIKELY TO THE EAST OF ROCHESTER AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE 5 TAF SITES EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. THESE WINDS AT TIMES MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NEIGHBORING TAF SITES JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. && .MARINE... NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WAVES THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NEAR 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WAVES WILL CREST OVER 4 FEET...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ERIE. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014- 019>021-085. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ZAFF NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...THOMAS MARINE...THOMAS/ZAFF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 062039 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH NO SNOW OR ONLY FLURRIES TOWARD THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. MEAGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CAN BE FOUND OVER THE MOST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET LIFTING MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED JET STREAKS WITHIN THE LARGE JET. THE ONE OF INTEREST FOR THIS EVENING IS CENTERED OVER MO...AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WESTERN NY WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS EDGING INTO THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH SNOW RANGING BETWEEN NIL OVER NIAGARA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...UP TO 6 INCHES OR SO OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ALLEGANY COUNTY CLOSEST TO BETTER LIFT. A REALLY QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST MODELS...THE 15Z SREF AND LATEST HRRR...SHOWS A DECREASING TREND IN QPF...SO CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS DESPITE A QPF OF ABOUT .3 OR LESS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...WITH LIGHT SNOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY TO ABOUT AN INCH/HR FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS...THEN TAPERING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST WILL BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY. JUST TO REITERATE...THE MAJOR METRO AREAS /KBUF-KROC/ ARE EXPECTED TO GET ONLY A GLANCING BLOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL BE WNW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...LIMITING OR EVEN ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK STREAMERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER ANY LOCATION DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE ALOFT LATER AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM ABOUT KFZY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. A SPECIAL 12Z 1.3KM RUN OF THE NAM FIRE WX NESTED RUN ALONG WITH OTHER HIGH RES RUNS SHOW THIS IDEA NICELY...WITH SOME STREAMERS LATE IN THE DAY IN ROUGHLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ANY CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER BY THE END OF THE DAY. IT IS WORTHY OF NOTING THE THE MODIS ESTIMATED LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5C WARMER OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE COMPARED TO THE WESTERN END. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST A BIT MORE LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND EVENTUAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN SHORELINE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A LINGERING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...THESE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY MINIMAL IN SCOPE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 5-6 KFT...AND A RATHER LIMITED SNOW GROWTH REGION/LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE BELOW THE CAPPING INVERSION. DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES AT WORST...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA JUST QUIET...DRY...AND COLD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM 10-15 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GET QUICKLY SQUELCHED DURING THE MORNING THANKS TO A FURTHER LOWERING OF THE CAP AND THE WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ALBEIT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY/S...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30 AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A COMPLEX AND DOUBLE-BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO JAMES BAY...AND A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/ MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CONNECTING SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD HELP FORCE A ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THIS COMING BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...A MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST THE PRECIP STARTING OFF AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ALSO THAT THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...FEEL THAT IT/S BEST TO JUST CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY...THOUGH ONE MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/S LOWS TO COME FAIRLY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN FORCING READINGS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BETWEEN LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE FALLING BACK SOME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BY MONDAY EVENING...OUR AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET EVEN COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER A STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS STATED...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PRODUCE BOTH A FAIRLY LOW CAP OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AND NOTABLE DRYING BELOW THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIMITED IN NATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONFINED POPS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TO THE LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -15C TUESDAY AND TO -18C/-20C BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH A PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE LOOKS TO BECOME MOST FAVORABLE SOMETIME FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE. AT THIS STILL-DISTANT JUNCTURE...DEPICTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT IN TIME REMAINS A HIGHLY DIFFICULT EXERCISE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH... WHICH WILL PRODUCE UNDULATIONS IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT BOTH BAND PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. THIS STATED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING THE MOST NOTEWORTHY OF THESE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A MORE STEADY-STATE WESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AFTER THAT TIME. STAY TUNED! OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING OFF INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...EXPECT THAT READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NY WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN FINGER LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AN AREA FROM ABOUT KJHW TO ABOUT OR SOUTH OF KFZY. THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT ON A NW FLOW FOR SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. && .MARINE... EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONLY A WEAK TO MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014- 019>021-085. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ZAFF NEAR TERM...ZAFF SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...ZAFF MARINE...ZAFF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRB 052044 CCA AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 240 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 REMAINING CLOUDS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AN END. ASOS UNITS AT AIRPORTS IN WAUSAU AND RHINELANDER HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB REPORTING BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS WHILE THE AWOS UNITS AT EAGLE RIVER...ARBORVITAE AND MANITOWISH WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE AS THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPORT BLOWING SNOW. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO BLOWING SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT A STEADY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AND HELP PRODUCE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER WITH LOWS OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WHERE THERE IS BARE GROUND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A VERY NICE PICTURE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER WISCONSIN CAN BE OBTAINED AT GE.SSEC.WISC.EDU/MODIS-TODAY/ (USE SMALL LETTERS). .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS. THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION NOTED ON THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO -14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TO MOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTING WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH ROADS. IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013 MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIFTING SNOW. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS. GOOD FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030. && $$ SHORT TERM.....RDM LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......RDM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRB 052040 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 240 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 REMAINING CLOUDS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AN END. ASOS UNITS AT AIRPORTS IN WAUSAU AND RHINELANDER HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB REPORTING BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS WHILE THE AWOS UNITS AT EAGLE RIVER...ARBORVITAE AND MANITOWISH WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE AS THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPORT BLOWING SNOW. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO BLOWING SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT A STEADY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AND HELP PRODUCE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER WITH LOWS OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WHERE THERE IS BARE GROUND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A VERY NICE PICTURE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER WISCONSIN CAN BE OBTAINED AT GE.SSEC.WISC.EDU/MODIS-TODAY/. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS. THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION NOTED ON THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO -14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TO MOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE... THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTING WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY... ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH ROADS. IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013 MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIFTING SNOW. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS. GOOD FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030. && $$ SHORT TERM.....RDM LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......RDM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 051426 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 526 AM AKST THU DEC 5 2013 .SHORT TERM...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE GULF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE YUKON THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO WEST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA BY TONIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT RESULTED IN A RAPID INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL OVERNIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THE STRONG NORTHERLIES ARE PUSHING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS. 30 TO 35 KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW IN THE JUNEAU AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWNTOWN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT WE WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH BUT DO FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY SO KEPT THE INHERITED STRONG WIND HEADLINE. AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WIND INCREASING THROUGH THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS CAUSING SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE HAINES AIRPORT HAS BEEN RISING INTO THE LOW 30S WHEN THE WIND GETS GUSTY AND THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 20S AS THE WIND LIGHTENS UP. SAME HAS BEEN THE CASE IN JUNEAU WHERE TEMPERATURES DOWNTOWN HAVE JUMPED FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE FLUCTUATIONS SHOULD LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS HAS CAUSED FOR SOME WIDE RANGES IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME ZONES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWS TONIGHT WILL HAVE WIDE RANGES WITH WIND SHELTERED AREAS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN MORNING OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY MODIS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY AND APPEARS VERY LOCALIZED. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHARPENED AND TURNED FLOW MORE NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY. ALSO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER WESTERN BC HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. USED THE ECMWF AND LOCAL WRF MODEL FOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ECMWF WAS USED MAINLY FOR THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AS IT BEST INITIALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENTS. USED THE LOCAL WRF TO UPDATE WINDS IN THE GULF AS ITS SUPERIOR RESOLUTION ALLOWED FOR OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE CAPTURED. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE ON STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM...BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA STILL A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COMBINATION OF LOWS AND TROUGH WEAKEN THE HIGH DOWN TO BIT PLAYER THAT CAN BE MANEUVERED ABOUT BY THE LOWS/STORMS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO HAVE ENDED BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS MORE CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SITUATION VARY SOME WITH THIS MINOR FEATURE MAKING TRACKING AND PREDICTION DIFFICULT. THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENT THAT MOST OF MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. SINCE THERE WAS NOT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL REMOVE THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVIER SNOW EVENT OR A MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE. WILL BE KEEPING AN WATCH ON THIS SYSTEM THE REST OF MY SHIFTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025. STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035. && $$ TPS/BEZENEK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 031226 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 426 AM PST TUE DEC 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, ROAD CAMERAS, AND SPORT MODIS-VIRRS NIGHTTIME RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE STILL FALLING, AT MOST, ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WERE SLOW TO FALL BELOW THE 5000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL YESTERDAY, SO MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS ABOVE THAT LEVEL. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT MANY AREAS THAT USUALLY SHOULD BE GETTING SNOW BY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SUCH AS HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS LIKELY RECEIVED UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW LAST EVENING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY STILL COLDER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS A 500MB TEMPERATURE OF -24C ON THE MEDFORD SOUNDING THIS MORNING DROPS TO AROUND -31C. A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THIS COLD AIR MOVES IN WILL PACK MOST OF WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IT HAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS CENTERED IN THE WARNER MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES. A FEW FLURRIES COULD REACH TO WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS, BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE NO PRECIPITATION. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A DRY AIR MASS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FOR WEST SIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEDFORD IT COULD BE AS WARM AS THE LOW 20S THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS TO AS COLD AS THE LOWER TEENS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE HANGS AROUND AND WHETHER OR NOT WE FOG IN. AT THIS POINT EXPECT SOME FOG AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 17F THURSDAY MORNING, COLDER IN OUTLYING AREAS. ALL ACROSS THE AREA IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE SORT OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORD VALUES AND CAPABLE OF FREEZING PIPES. EXTENDED COLD WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT COULD BE A VERY MESSY FRIDAY FOR THE WEST SIDE. AT THIS POINT THE NAM12 IS THE ODD MODEL OUT IN NOT DEPICTING A PRECIPITATING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED QUITE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS HIGH CLOUD WILL MODULATE HOW COLD THE VALLEYS ARE WHEN THE FRIDAY SYSTEM ARRIVES. SIMILAR PAST SITUATIONS HAVE RESULTED IN COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO VALLEY FLOORS. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT A BRIEF SURGE IN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUCH THAT MANY VALLEYS WOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ABOVE 2000 FEET AND POSSIBLE BELOW THIS LEVEL. STAY TUNED AS WE DO OUR BEST TO PROVIDE WHAT DETAILS CAN BE SURMISED. THEREAFTER, THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS AND REASONING IN THE LONGER RANGE IN EXPECTING THAT WET SYSTEMS WITH SNOW LEVELS AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS SHOULD ARRIVE DURING WEEK TWO. THUS, IT APPEARS WINTER HAS ARRIVED AND IS PLANNING ON STICKING AROUND IN TERMS OF THE WEATHER, NOT JUST ON THE CALENDER! BTL && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE. A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AS A RESULT...THE SHOWERS HAVE TURNED TO MOSTLY SNOW...EVEN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SHOWERS WILL END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THIS MAY ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO FORM BRIEFLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE VALLEYS. IT WILL STAY MIXED LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS/FOG DISSIPATES...VFR AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS. BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022. FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ021-022. FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ORZ021-022. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR FOR ORZ025. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS... - SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. - SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370. - HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376. - SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376. $$ BTL/BTL/SBN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 290150 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 350 PM HST THU NOV 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS...TURNING OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...BRINGING A THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS TO THOSE ISLANDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... THE BACKGROUND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS HAS ALREADY TURNED SSE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND SE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THE 00Z PHLI SOUNDING SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ALREADY BEGINNING TO COOL AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STARTING TO LIFT AND WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS... THE LATEST MODIS PASS SHOWS THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PW RANGING FROM 0.75-1 INCH...SO ALL 4 RADARS ARE VIRTUALLY PPINE THIS HOUR. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 400 MILES TO THE NW OF KAUAI WILL GET AN EASTWARD NUDGE TOWARD THE ISLANDS AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SHARP TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD...SPREADING INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL HELP TO SPARK SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS BOTH ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS. THE TIMING ON THIS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR KAUAI. INITIALLY THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STARTING LATER SAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT THE KONA WINDS AHEAD OF IT BEGIN TO TAP INTO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ AND SURGE IT NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS SAT NIGHT...WITH NEW DEEP CONVECTION BLOWING UP OVER THE ISLANDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE GARDEN ISLE...THOUGH IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER TO THE E THAN EXPECTED...THEN OAHU MIGHT SEE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS SAT OR SUN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR KAUAI...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT LATER TO OAHU. THE REMAINING ISLANDS SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS...BUT WILL BE LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW. THE MODEL SHOW A HEALTHY DOSE OF KONA WINDS AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT SURFACE BACKGROUND FLOW. THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON THE N SHORE OF KAUAI AND 30-35 KT ON OAHU STARTING FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED WIND GUST GRIDS EARLIER IN THESE AREAS TO BE CLOSER TO THESE VALUES. LOOKS A BIT SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE SPOTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT THE STRONGER KONA WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE VOG FROM BECOMING TOO CONCENTRATED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVES AWAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REBUILDS NEAR THE ISLANDS AND SO EXPECTING THINGS TO STABILIZE DURING THAT TIME. && AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIGHT SE FLOW. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOME OVER KAUAI AND OAHU TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED MVFR AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NO AIRMETS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. && .MARINE... SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 51101 HAS RISEN TO 11 FEET. SURF AND SEAS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ON N AND W FACING SHORES...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ IN WATERS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE NW SWELL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE KAULAKAHI CHANNEL DUE TO THE INCREASING KONA WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF KONA WINDS AND LINGERING NW SWELL WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY- WINDWARD HALEAKALA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS. && $$ R BALLARD...DISCUSSION/MARINE M BALLARD...AVIATION  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 282028 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1025 AM HST THU NOV 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS...TURNING OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...BRINGING A THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS TO THOSE ISLANDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND 1153Z MODIS PASS SHOWED THE AIRMASS WAS ON THE DRY SIDE OF NORMAL OVER THE STATE...ALONG WITH A CAPPING INVERSION SLOPING FROM NEAR 5500 FEET NEAR PHLI TO 7000 FEET NEAR PHTO. EXPECTING PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OWING TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NATURE OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE LEE OF MOLOKAI AND PUSH NW TOWARD OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THE BACKGROUND FLOW FROM THE SE WILL BRING VOG UP OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS STARTING TODAY...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO FRI. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND THE INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP TO DISPERSE THE VOG SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL START TO FORM IN THE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONES TO THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN ANY PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE UP OVER THE WESTERN MAIN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO FRI. STARTING LATER FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR BEGINNING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE W. AS WAS DISCUSSED OVERNIGHT...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SO WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OAHU...BUT THIS STILL LOOKS OK FOR KAUAI. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WEAKENS AT FIRST AFTER IT ARRIVES...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAVEGEM ALL SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE...SHOWING THE STALLED FRONT BEING REINVIGORATED BY A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE NW OF THE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY WITH A SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU. THIS SCENARIO HAS NOT BACKED OFF MUCH IN THE 12Z RUNS...AND SO ALTHOUGH THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU NOW LOOKS TO START LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ENVISIONED...IT MIGHT STILL PAN OUT. LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT NECESSITATE WAITING A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE GUIDANCE TO LOCK IN BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF A THREAT AT ALL TO MAUI COUNTY OR THE BIG ISLAND AT THIS POINT. THE MODEL SHOW A HEALTHY DOSE OF KONA WINDS AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT SURFACE BACKGROUND FLOW. THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON THE N SHORE OF KAUAI AND 30-35 KT ON OAHU STARTING FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST GRIDS IN THESE AREAS TO BE CLOSER TO THESE VALUES. LOOKS A BIT SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE SPOTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVES AWAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REBUILDS NEAR THE ISLANDS AND SO EXPECTING THINGS TO STABILIZE DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW. CLOUDS WILL BUILD UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. NO AIRMETS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. && .MARINE... THE LARGE 310 DEGREE SWELL JUST ARRIVED AT BUOY 51101 AS OF 20Z. SURF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER END OF SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME SPOTS FOR N AND W FACING SHORES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA NEAR KAUAI IN ANTICIPATION OF SEAS AT THE 10 FT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. WILL WATCH THE BUOY CAREFULLY TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO EITHER ADVISORY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KONA WINDS WILL APPROACH THE 25 KT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY WINDY AREAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...PARTICULARLY IN THE KAULAKAHI CHANNEL. EVEN THOUGH THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND/EXTEND THE SCA TO COVER THESE AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF KONA WINDS AND LINGERING NW SWELL WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR N AND W FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...AND OAHU...AND FOR N FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI. && $$ R BALLARD...DISCUSSION/MARINE M BALLARD...AVIATION  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 262038 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 238 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013 .SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EAST IS NOW ALL BUT HISTORY FOR THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS IN FRONT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ON TAP...WITH NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE VERY BORDERLINE...AND OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON PULLING THE TRIGGER FOR NOW. NEXT SHIFT CAN WATCH WIND AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...WHICH MIRRORED GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A VERY NICE DAY OTHERWISE IN STORE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH VERY LITTLE THAT WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TONIGHT THOUGH...AND THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A FREEZE IN THE RURAL AREAS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP STRETCH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COUPLE WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST WINDS TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...BOTH FROM A HUMIDITY AND A PRECIP STANDPOINT. SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND THE ONGOING COOLER AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THAT SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE AND EASTERLY. THE GULF AIRMASS IS PRETTY WORKED OVER SO DEWPOINT/MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL TAKE A WHILE BUT EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE STARTED AN UPWARD TREND BY LATER IN THE DAY AND A FEW CU WILL PROBABLY START TO BUBBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S. DATA FROM A RECENT MODIS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE PASS AND NEARSHORE TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS HAVE DRASTICALLY REDUCED THE TEMPERATURE OF THE NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO UPWELLING. THE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THE MORE DRASTIC DEPARTURE IS WITHIN 5 TO 15 MILES OF THE COASTLINE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL. WITH EASTERLY WINDS PROJECTED TO FLOW OVER THE GRADIENT OF RELATIVELY WARM...76F ACCORDING TO BUOY 20...OFFSHORE WATER...TO THE RELATIVELY COLD NEARSHORE WATER...A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR SEA ADVECTION FOG EXISTS. ADDED FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT GROUP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT IN LOCALIZED AREAS THE TIME OF DAY MAY NOT MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE REGARDING FOG FORMATION WITH PARTS OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING FOG FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OUR LOW LAYER FLOW RESPONDS BY BECOMING MORE DUE SOUTHERLY. THIS HELPS FURTHER A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. NOTED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER REFLECTION IS ALSO APPARENT AND KEPT THE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL GULF INTENSIFIES BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT THE ONLY IMPACT BY TUESDAY ARE PERHAPS SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. && .MARINE... NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE GULF THROUGH 6 PM...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS VERIFYING AT THE OFFSHORE BUOY. THE GALE WARNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT SOME POINT AS WINDS DECREASE. CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... PERIODS OF SEA FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR FOG WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARINERS. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 41 57 40 61 / 0 0 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 38 58 38 63 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 36 59 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 40 60 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 36 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 47 58 44 61 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132- 135. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV SHORT TERM...54 LONG TERM...68-GIBBS UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...MARTINEZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 122332 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 632 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE ARCTIC FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA IN PIECES...A TYPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AS COLD AIR MASSES INTERACT WITH THE HIGHEST HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE WIND SHIFT IS MOVING STEADILY SOUTH AND HAS CLEARED THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AS OF 12/23Z WHILE THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD... ARCTIC AIR IS RUNNING ABOUT 1-2 HOURS BEHIND. THERMAL DECLINES WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES. ALREADY SEEING IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISES IN EXCESS OF 5MB/3HRS OVER NORTH CAROLINA--A TESTAMENT TO THE POTENCY OF THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AT THE BEACHES. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A BRIEF FREEZE COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS MUCH AS NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY AS WELL AS PARTS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO HOIST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...HOWEVER. A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND PARTS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PUSH THIS ACTIVITY STEADILY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF I-26 FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. RAP THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SLEET COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN FROM ROUGHLY 03-06Z...BUT THIS REALLY SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH SHOULD IT OCCUR. THE RAIN HAS MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW WEST OF RALEIGH/DURHAM THIS EVENING WITHIN CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE THE MAIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL SCOUR OUT THIS FAR SOUTH SO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A LITTLE SLEET MIXED IN IS FAVORED OVER A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-26 WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS FINE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS BERKELEY COUNTY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY...A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLAST UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE 20 PLUS DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. IN ADDITION...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR BERKELEY AND COASTAL COUNTIES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ABNORMALLY COLD TREND WILL CONTINUE AS A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT DEVELOPS. COLD ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY PERSIST EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT COASTAL GEORGIA. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SEASONAL NORMALS...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF STATES SPREADS NORTHWARD. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDE SOME INSULATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND CLEARER SKIES PERSIST ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...SHOWCASE THIS TEMPERATURE TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AND INLAND LOCATIONS AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP SHOP TO OUR WEST WITH A SERIES OF VORTS MOVING THROUGH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH IS A TYPICAL COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO FOR US. WE EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOL NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING IN ALOFT. AT A MINIMUM WE ARE LOOKING AT PROLONGED CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LAND FROM TIME TO TIME. WE BUMPED UP POPS A TAD THOUGH ARE NOT GOING WHOLE HOG UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY SINCE THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. A STRONG WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KCHS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KSAV SHORTLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY 02Z AT KCHS AND 04Z AT KSAV WITH GUSTS NEARING 30 KT. CIGS WILL LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY FROM 04-07Z AT KCHS AS AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION PIVOTS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH GUSTY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE SET FOR A DANGEROUS AND WIDESPREAD GALE EVENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. SOLID GALES APPEAR LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH WINDS TOPPING 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS 40-45 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG. ALREADY SEEING WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 KT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS AND WILL WILL BE MAINTAINED. THERE IS CONCERN THAT FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE 1KM MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SHOWED THE WESTERN WALL STREAM IS LURKING. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AS MUCH AS 45-50 KT OF WIND WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER AND GIVEN THE COUNTER FLOW CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE GULF STREAM...MUCH OF THIS WIND COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A STORM WARNING FOR THIS CYCLE. PREFER TO MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OFF NORTH CAROLINA THAT RESIDE WITHIN/NEAR THE WESTERN WALL TO SEE HOW WINDS RESPOND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEDNESDAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SLOWLY NUDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING GALES TO END IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...GALES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOR WILL EASILY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA BEFORE SLIPPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS COULD STILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW. && .CLIMATE... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES COULD END UP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE. A SUMMARY OF MIDWEEK RECORDS FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 13 RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES... CHS 52F...1977 SAV 50F...1920 DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 49F...1920 THURSDAY NOVEMBER 14 RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES... CHS 27F...1981 SAV 28F...1968 DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 36F...1963 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141. SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045-048>052. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330. && $$ ST  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 060526 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1226 AM EST WED NOV 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A WARMER AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... TWEAKED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO LATEST SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. INCREASED CLOUDS MAINLY OVER POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED PER MODIS 1KM REMOTE SENSING. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 930 PM UPDATE... COOLED THE VALLEYS PER CURRENT TRENDS IN PART VIA BLENDING IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE ADJMAV AND THE ECMWF. ALSO ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO ENCROACH A BIT FARTHER WWD IN SE WV TOWARD DAWN. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. 630 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH WINDS TONIGHT...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. LATE WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT IN THE WEST DUE TO THE FASTER TIMING IN THE 12Z MODELS. WITH THE FAST FLOW...FASTER TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH EVERYTHING INDICATING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN...HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH MODELS INDICATING 925MB WINDS FROM 30-40KT AND 850MB WINDS FROM 40-50KT...STILL APPEARS WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH 25-40KT GUSTS COMMON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL BE A BREEZY NIGHT. AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE GUSTY 925MB-850MB WINDS MAY RESULT IN A WIND HIGHLIGHT BEING NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN END IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 00 UTC FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE TRICKY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WIND AND CLOUDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY BE TOO COOL...SO HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. TEMP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE BELIEVABLE. SO...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS STARTED TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THAT...COUPLED WITH WPC AND CPC SHOWING GOOD CHANCES FOR A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER LEADS TO NO WEATHER FROM 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS THE CLOUD COVER...AS THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY THAT MIGHT KICK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME...SO THE TIMING AND CONSISTENCY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A PROBLEM. WITH THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE CLEARER SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS QUICK TO ASSUME CONTROL. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RIDING ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. PBL WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO ACT AS A SUPPRESSOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. EVEN CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS EKN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD REMAINS VFR OR MVFR AT THE WORST. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS EARLY THURSDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FIRST SITES TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE HTS...PKB....AND CRW. THEN...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE THERE WILL BE ICE IN THE COLUMN SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WITH DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE TO MIX DOWN H85 FLOW OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE 25 KNOTS AT 3 KFT. EVEN IF ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...BELIEVE WONT REACH LLWS CRITERIA IN TERMS OF A SPEED CHANGE WITHIN A NARROW LAYER LATE OVERNIGHT / NEAR DAWN WED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW MVFR CIGS MAY CREEP INTO BKW LATE OVERNIGHT / AROUND DAWN WED. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS MAY VARY FROM FCST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD DEVELOP AROUND THESE TIMES ESPECIALLY IF / WHERE SFC WINDS BECOME EITHER CALM OR VERY LIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/06/13 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ARJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 180755 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 255 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013 .DISCUSSION... AN UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS- TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN. FOR NOW, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WEST COAST NORTHWARD TO NORTH ALASKA/YUKON TERRITORIES. MEANWHILE, A SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER AND FINALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUBTROPICAL JET KEEPS SOUTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. CONCURRENTLY, WITH THE FROPA THAT OCCURRED EARLIER YESTERDAY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE RADIATION FOG. OBS INDICATE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY BRIEFLY RISEN ABOVE 1/4 SM. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE NASA-SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY (0423Z IMAGE) CONFIRMS THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF VALLEY/RIVER FOG. THUS, WILL KEEP THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 9AM. WITH SUNRISE, FOG WILL GRADUALLY EVAPORATE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DAYTIME HIGHS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER START TO THE MORNING AND DELAY IN WARMING FROM FOG. DURING THE DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENVELOPED IN THE BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO SWING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AS THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, IT WILL PUSH A SFC REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST FROM THE CORN BELT REGION SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. A DRY COLUMN AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL SHOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST AS WELL. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED (ALONG WITH CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT) THROUGH THE DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THEN, TEMPS SHOULD NOSEDIVE QUICKLY AS COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. HAVE ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE VALLEYS/RIVERS/LAKES, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BTWN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CROSSOVER TEMPS. IN ADDITION, SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA MAY DROP CLOSE TO THE MID-UPPER 30S SUNDAY MORNING YIELDING A POSSIBILITY FOR FROST. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MEAN A PLUNGE OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HEARTLAND INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE TN VALLEY, TEMPS MAY BE 5- 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT SENDING VERY COLD AIR FROM OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES SOUTHEAST. SOME MODIFICATION OF THIS AIRMASS IS LIKELY, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THEN, ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORTEX ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE MODELS (AND MODEL RUNS) ON THE THIRD SURGE OF COLD AIR. THUS, HAVE MAINLY INCORPORATED A TREND DOWNWARD RATHER THAN UTILIZING MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPS. NEVERTHELESS, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST ON THE MORNINGS OF TUE-THU WITH PERHAPS SHELTERED LOCATIONS DROPPING CLOSE TO FREEZING ON 1 OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS (MOST LIKELY THURSDAY). SL.77 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013/ FOR 06Z TAFS... AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LINGER AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU 14Z THIS MORNING, WITH CONDS HOVERING NEAR AIRPORT MINIMUMS (200FT CEILINGS AND 1/2SM VSBYS). CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WHEN MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY, WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING TO BOTH SITES AFTER 18/14-15Z. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 70 49 70 42 / 0 10 10 0 SHOALS 70 48 68 41 / 0 10 10 0 VINEMONT 68 50 68 42 / 0 10 10 0 FAYETTEVILLE 70 47 68 40 / 0 10 10 0 ALBERTVILLE 69 49 68 43 / 0 10 10 0 FORT PAYNE 72 48 69 40 / 0 10 10 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016. TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 171407 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 607 AM AKDT THU OCT 17 2013 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY, RIDING UP OVER THE TOP AND ONCE IT DOES WILL FLATTEN IT AND CAUSE SKIES TO BE A LITTLE DIRTIER AS WE SAY IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE. DESPITE THIS, WE STILL ARE FORECASTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH...EMPHASIZING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, BUT THINK FOLKS WILL SEE THEIR SHADOWS AT SOME TIME TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SHADOWS MAY BE LESS EASILY SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT FOR SURE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTS MORE SOLID MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE CLEARING TODAY AND EVEN AS THE MID- LEVEL STRATUS BREAKS UP THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ALOFT AND BECOME LADEN WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM PELICAN EAST TO GUSTAVUS AND NORTH TO HAINES WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS OVER YAKUTAT BAY AS WELL AS CROSS SOUND LATE. THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE YUKON WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY. NAM IS DISAGREEING WITH THE ECMWF ON THIS ONE. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE LIGHT NORTHERLIES THIS MORNING OVER THE CANAL...HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE ECMWF WHILE LOOKING AT THIS TIME PERIOD THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND AM STICKING TO MY FORECAST OF A SLOW RISE IN WINDS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF LYNN CANAL, WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLIES BUILDING TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ANOTHER ISSUE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND WRANGELL AND PETERSBURG, AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM. GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES...FOG WILL LIKELY TAKE ITS TIME TO DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER, BUT THE HOPE IS BY NOON. FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF JUNEAU, BUT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE, THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE LESS OF AN ISSUE, AND DOUBT ANY WILL BE DENSE. THE SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGE HAS PROVIDED EXCELLENT IMAGES DEPICTING THE LOCATION OF FOG...IN LOCAL DRAINAGE AREAS LIKE THE CHILKAT VALLEY TO THE BACKSIDE OF DOUGLAS AND SOUTH TO EASTERN FREDERICK SOUND. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, OTHER THAN COOLING THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR TONIGHT TO NEAR 40...FEEL THAT THEY WILL HAVE ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL LIKED THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS BUT USING MORE ECMWF FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE FRI MORNING, AND THE SECOND ON SATURDAY. THE LARGEST CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE DUE TO RAISING THE POPS AND QPF FOR THE FIRST FRONT. AT 12Z FRI A 500H TROUGH ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM OVER KODIAK AND TO THE ESE MOST OF THE WAY ACROSS THE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH THE PANHANDLE FRI MORNING. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A SPLIT IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CHAIN, WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH THAT FLOWS NNE THROUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE FIRST OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM OFFSHORE OF A YAKUTAT-SITKA LINE AT 12Z FRI. THE LANDFALL OF THIS SYSTEM DURING DAYTIME FRIDAY HAS BEEN GIVEN RAISED POP AND QPF VALUES. YAKUTAT IS FORECAST TO HAVE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FRI. POPS WERE RAISED 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE EXCEPT ZONES 28 AND 29. THE CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED BY A LARGE-SCALE LOW IN THE NW PACIFIC THAT HAS A STRONG TROPICAL ORIGIN. A LOOP OF THE GOES IR ON A PACIFIC MERCATOR PROJECTION HAS BEEN USEFUL FOR SEEING THE RAPID TRANSITION FROM A TYPHOON THAT WAS ABOUT 600 NM S OF JAPAN ON TUE, TO A NEW LOW THAT WAS ROUGHLY 600 NM SW OF SHEMYA ABOUT 06Z THU. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR THE LOW TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 962 MB IN THE VICINITY OF SHEMYA AT 00Z FRI. THIS LARGE AND DEEP SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THE SECOND OCCLUSION, AND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THE YAKUTAT TO SITKA LINE ABOUT 21Z SAT. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ026. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051. && $$ JWA/JBT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 151412 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 612 AM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013 .SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG WITH THE DEPARTING FRONT OVER CANADA. THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR WESTERN POW AND OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS OUT UNTIL 9 AM. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE AREA AS SEEN BY MODIS- VIIRS NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY BUT IT IS NOT REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE AT THIS TIME. THE FOG MAY BE THICKER IN PLACES THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND AREAS ALSO AS THE SUN RISES THE FOG MAY THICKEN UP. SO DID NOT CHANGE THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WILL WAIT TO SEE SOME VISUAL CONFIRMATION THEN DECIDE IF TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK ARE SEEING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED FROM A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO CANADA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SEE THE SHOWERS INCREASE THROUGH TODAY FROM THE WEST BUT THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE PRECIP RETREATS TO THE WEST. A UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER AND MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST AREA OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME INCREASED WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY BUT BY TONIGHT THEY TOO WILL DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. LYNN CANAL CONTINUES TO BLOW MIN SMALL CRAFT FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH 15 KT OVER SOUTHERN LYNN. THESE WINDS WILL VERY SLOW DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 15 KT OVER NORTHERN LYNN AND TO 10 KT OVER SOUTHERN LYNN. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAT THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. USED A BLEND OF THE EC AND NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. .LONG TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA MIDWEEK, THEN NUDGING TO THE EAST AS A SOUTHERN BERING SEA LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE IS EXITS INTO WESTERN CANADA, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TONIGHT'S SHIFT WAS FOG PLACEMENT AND SKY COVER. SURE, WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH COMPLEX TERRAIN UNDERNEATH A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALWAYS BE A CHALLENGE. ASIDE FROM LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT, MOST PLACES WILL ENJOY LIGHT WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. A GREAT DAY TO SAIL. A THERMAL TROUGH BACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP MOST SPOTS NORTH AND WEST HERE, WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS MAINLY SOUTHERLY WITH WINDS BLOWING AWAY FROM THE RIDGE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM LAST NIGHT'S FRONT EXITING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO BC, EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE, AS WELL AS A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AND THUS CLEARING SKIES, WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND YES, EVEN THURSDAY MORNING ARE GOOD SET-UPS FOR FOG OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. KEPT MUCH OF THE IDEAS OF LAST SHIFT, ALTHOUGH REMOVED YAKUTAT AS GUIDANCE NOT HINTING AT IT HERE. IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT-TERM, DID INTRODUCE SOME FOG FORMATION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF/WHEN THIS FORMS WHETHER THIS FOG EVENTUALLY REACHES ELFIN COVE, SITKA, AND CRAIG. AT THIS POINT, DO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS ONSHROE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT CHOSE NOT TO CARRY FOG AS THIS FOG LAYER HAS YET TO DEVELOP. THE AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DID USE GEM AS A CLOUD COVER GUIDE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE MODELS IS NOT GREAT. KEPT NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT PARTLY CLOUDY GIVEN THE RISK OF CLOUDS INVADING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER, DID LOWER TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING AND TO UPPER 30S DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/DOUGLAS. OTHER SPOTS WILL FLIRT/REACH THE FREEZING POINT: YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, HAINES CUSTOMS, HOONAH IN PARTICULAR. AS THE DATE GETS CLOSER AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS COME IN, THE HOPE IS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS. ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER WET WEEKEND. RAIN IN YAKUTAT IS DEFINITE FOR FRIDAY, AND CONFIDENCE MOUNTING FOR RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY, BUT KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR NOW. LIKE THE LAST FRONT, THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION, SO QPF WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GIVEN THE DRY MID WEEK, RIVERS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOWER BEFORE THIS NEXT ROUND. KEPT GFS/ECMWF/WPC INFLUENCED FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL PATTERN GOOD. LESS SO ON THE DETAILS. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ026-027. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052. && $$ ABJ/JWA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 090956 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 556 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL WORK UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...THEN STALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW OVR NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF PA EARLY THIS AM. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND HAVE ALLOWED VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN PA...AS SEEN IN MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY. FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THRU 8 AM FOR THE N TIER COUNTIES...WHERE GROWING SEASON STILL GOING. OBS SHOW SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS UP THERE HAVE DROPPED TO THE L/M30S AS OF 09Z. ALL NEAR TERM MDL DATA DRIFTING UPPER LOW AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD NORTHWARD TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS ARE LIKELY...SOUTHERN PA SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WHILE THE NW COUNTIES SQUEAK OUT ONE MORE MSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY...AS SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE MAX TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN THE M60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS LOW CRAWLS NORTHWARD...ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET AND PWATS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST PA TONIGHT...LIKELY SPREADING RAIN INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 40F NORTH TO NR 50F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1-2SD AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES OF 2-3SD BECOME FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST PA ON THURSDAY IN BOTH GEFS/SREF DATA...IMPLYING A VERY HIGH CHC OF RAIN ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON THURSDAY IN THIS AREA AND INTRODUCED THE CHC OF LIGHTER RAIN REACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR. A STEADY RAIN OVR THE SE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING PAST ABOUT 60F...WHILE DRY WX AND FILTERED SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW READINGS TO APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MASS FIELDS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE STALLING UPPER LOW OVR VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY...THEN VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH SUGGEST LINGERING EASTERLY LOW LVL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU THE WEEKEND. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED THE CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPOTTY DZ THRU THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN MILD NIGHTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A BLEND MDL QPF SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SE PA...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THAT THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A FEW DAYS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA IMPLY BRIGHTER AND DRIER CONDS ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN WE FINALLY LOSE THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS ARND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GULF COAST STATES. DRY AIR AT THE SFC SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIG FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE STATE ON WED. THUS WINDS MAY PICK UP AT LNS LATE IN THE AFT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THERE. GIVEN THE EASTERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDS MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION... AND MOISTURE INCREASES. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT-SATURDAY...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SUN...PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY...THEN VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-010-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...GARTNER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 081004 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 604 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN PARK ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CRAWL SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS AM ACROSS WESTERN PA. HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOC WITH SFC HIGH SHOULD ENSURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L60S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA WILL ENSURE A DRY/TRANQUIL NIGHT. NORTHERN EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG/FROST. UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CRAWL NORTH ALONG THE E COAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SPREADING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...ALL MDL DATA INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS REMAIN OVR THE AREA...ENSURING ANOTHER DRY DAY. BRIGHTEST SKIES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE N MTNS AND THE MOST CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS IN THE M60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC MOIST EASTERLY LL JET LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY BRING A CLOUDY AND DAMP END TO THE WORK WEEK. GFS/GEFS MEAN BOTH INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN OTHER MDL DATA...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF THAN ECMWF MEAN/CMC/NAM SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY...BASED ON ALL MDL DATA INDICATING ARRIVAL OF ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW AND PWATS...FOCUSED ESP ACROSS SE PA. BLENDED MDL QPF YIELDS 2 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS THU-FRI RANGING FROM ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS WARREN CO...TO ARND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HIGH FFG NUMBERS INDICATE THIS WOULD BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN...RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT. UPPER LOW INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA TO SLOWLY PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WX. LG SCALE RIDGE OVR THE E COAST SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE BENEFIT OF A BIT OF SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN MTNS /KBFD AND KJST/ OVERNIGHT IN THE CHILLY WNW FLOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE WET GROUND COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SLACKENING WINDS COULD SUPPORT FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MAY PERSIST IN SOME LOCATIONS TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...JUST HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE TAFS. CONDS WILL IMPROVE ON TUES...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUES NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDS WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...FLYING CONDS MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR. WED NIGHT-SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...GARTNER/EVANEGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 031118 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 718 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING THE REGION UNSEASONABLY WARM AND EVEN A BIT HUMID AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE IT'S ANOTHER FAIR EARLY AUTUMN NIGHT. A SLIGHT DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM NW PA SE INTO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY SUGGEST THE GHOST OF THE OLD FRONT THAT WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO PA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS STILL HANGING AROUND...AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. SREF AND GFS WANT TO COOK UP SOME WEAK CAPE AS PWATS RISE TO 1-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE OVER THE NW...CLOSEST TO THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING AND PW SURGE. IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTH...TO THE LOW AND MID 80S ALONG THE MD BORDER. THE FRONT IS MADE TO SNAKE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AN UP ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BASED LI'S SHOW THIS NICELY AND THIS SHOULD BE ONCE AGAIN THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER DURING THE SECOND PERIOD. WITH MORE CLOUDS...THE OVERNIGHT WILL STAY QUITE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF PA FRIDAY IMPLYING A WARM AND EVEN MUGGY DAY. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A SMATTERING OF LIGHT QPF...AND MOS POPS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING REMOVED FROM THE FCST AREA...IT SEEMS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAY BE LATCHING ONTO SOME SORT OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEFS/SREF SHOW THIS POTENTIAL BY ALSO GENERATING SOME WEAK CAPE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM VERY LOW CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH TO LOW LIKELY NUMBERS ALONG THE NY BORDER...BUT KEEPING ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE BARRING HINTS OF STRONGER AND WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST...A WARM FRONT OVER NY AND A WARM FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA. MODELS ONCE AGAIN SPLASH AROUND SOME LIGHT QPF WHICH SEEMS MAINLY DIURNALLY FAVORED...BUT THINKING IS IT SHOULD BE A MAINLY NICE-DRY WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE TIME OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARE CENTERED ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND HANDLING OF WHATEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO THE GULF STATES. THE GEFS/GFS SUGGEST POTENTIAL STORM KAREN MAKES A LANDFALL OVER THE FL PANHANDLE BEFORE TRACKING UP ALONG OR EAST OF A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND THEN OFF THE MID ALTL COAST...NOT BEING A THREAT TO PA. THE ECMWF TAKES THE STORM TO LOUISIANA BEFORE ABSORBING IT INTO A SLOWER MOVING FRONT...BRINGING SIG RAINS UP INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PA. AT THIS RANGE WITH SUCH GREAT UNCERTAINTY...I DIDN'T MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED...BASICALLY NOT DRYING THINGS OUT UNTIL TUESDAY...RATHER THAN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FASTER GEFS/GFS WOULD HAVE. QUIET AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL ULTIMATELY RETURN FOR MIDWEEK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WITH THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ADVERTISING A RESURGENCE IN THE EASTERN RIDGE...WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE A RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY! && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS DENSE VALLEY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA. BASED ON HRRR AND NAMPARA...FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY ARND 14Z...LEAVING WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OLD BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW CIGS/FOG AT BFD LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRI...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS BFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...AM FOG POSSIBLE EAST. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 030243 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 943 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013 .UPDATE...NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN ERN AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RAPIDLY FALL DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATER IN THE NIGHT AS STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN IL WARM FRONT. WL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT...SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AROUND KMSN. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ERN TAF SITES BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN. OTRW...SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR T-STORM TO AFFECT TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MRNG...WITH BETTER CHANCE LATER THU AS WARM FRONT SETTLES OVER CENTRAL WI. && .MARINE...MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWS LINGERING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO RECENT UPWELLING AND OFFSHORE WINDS. SHEBOYGAN LAKESHORE CONTINUES TO REPORT WATER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD...ADDED FOG TO FORECAST. MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONE WHERE WATER TEMPS REMAIN COOLEST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 09Z AND REACH AROUND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z OR 15Z AND LINGER THERE. LEANED A BIT TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE AS WE SHOULD COOL OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS ROLL IN. NOT THE BEST SET UP TONIGHT WITH THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO OUR NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH CHANCE POPS SEEM FITTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THURSDAY MORNING ARE NEAR 2SD AND BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEY ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SO WE/LL LIKELY SEE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A MID LEVEL VORT MAX SLIDING THROUGH...UPPER DIVERGENCE....A LLJ FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WEST TO 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...WITH A LITTLE CAP. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 20KTS. SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET FEISTY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FFORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING AND TO AROUND 35 KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 850 MB WINDS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME 850/700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. LIFTING ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION RESULTS IN ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 300/600 JOULES/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1600 J/KG. THE FAR SOUTH MAY GET FAR ENOUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON FOR DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO REDUCE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A LOW LEVEL CAP DEVELOPS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ON THE NAM THE 12Z NAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF WITH A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA BEFORE REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY. THE 250 MB UPPER JET INCREASES TO AROUND 115 KNOTS AS IT LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE OCCURS FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY REACH SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM IOWA BACK TOWARDS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THE 12Z NAM...AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS IT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH CENTRAL WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE NAM KEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AND DOES NOT GENERATE ANY STORMS. ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER STRONG AT 1200 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NAM WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW...AND HAS THE COLD FRONT AROUND 18 HOURS SLOWER. THEREFORE THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS QUESTIONABLE. LONG TERM... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN...WITH THIS OCCURRING SUNDAY ON THE 12Z GFS AND SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE 00Z ECMWF. THEREFORE ANY DRY SLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE 00Z ECMWF STILL HAS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES IT WELL INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. BIGGEST PROBLEM WOULD BE ANY FROST POTENTIAL BUT IT APPEARS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALREADY START TO MODERATE. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WE COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 13Z...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. SOUNDINGS STILL HINT AT THIS BEING MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN SITES...NEAR MSN AND POSSIBLY UES. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING ISN/T TOO HIGH. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE ENTIRE DAY THURSDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LINGERS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS INGREDIENTS BEGIN TO COME TOGETHER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 020209 AAB AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 909 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013 .UPDATE... ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE LATE NIGHT...AND MINOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT CHANGES. && .DISCUSSION... GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONTROLLED THE WEATHER. WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS SEEN IN THE FOG/LOW CLOUD LOOP...A 115Z MODIS PASS...AND OBSERVATIONS...WERE AFFECTING PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE LOWER CLOUDS WERE MOVING IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WITH NW-N WINDS NOTED VIA DOPPLER RADAR VAD WIND PRODUCT. WITH THE ABOVE NOTED FOG AND MORE OF THIS PHENOMENA NOTED ON SATELLITE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE LATE NIGHT. FOR THIS UPDATE...RESTRICTED FOG TO LOCATIONS NEAR MOST MAJOR BODIES OF WATER AND WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS. 300-305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM THE RAP WAS FORECAST TO OCCUR MORE OVER NW ALABAMA...WHICH HINTS THAT FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM OVER THE NE...DUE TO FEWER CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...HIGHER ALTITUDE CLOUDS EMANATING FROM A WEAK GULF/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SYSTEM SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SINCE THOSE CLOUDS WERE CIRRUS...STAYED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY RATHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING. NIGHT TIME LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST VALUES. MADE A FEW MINOR (MAINLY DOWNWARD) ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATED SPOTS...ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TWEAKS. UPDATED TEXT/GRID FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT. GRAPHICAST WILL BE FRESHENED SOON. RB && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013/ FOR 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE LATE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE VIEW AND SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT WAS SUGGESTING A DECK OF MOSTLY VFR STRATUS FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE OVER KHSV THAN KMSL. THUS THE KMSL TERMINAL WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. DESPITE A CHANCE FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER KHSV...HAVE LEFT A TEMPO IN FOR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... VFR SHOULD RETURN BY 14-15Z TIMEFRAME WED AM. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NW AL COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WED AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE 00Z TAF...PENDING REVIEW OF NEXT MODEL RUN. RB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013/ A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA TODAY WITH A WEAK LOW OVER E TX/LA SPREADING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST. IN ADDITION, THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROKEN CLOUD COVER MAINLY ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF LOW AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRETCHING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN LAST NIGHT. DUE TO THE WARMER DAY TODAY AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS (WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER), TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT, AS WELL. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN CENTERS ON THE GULF LOW MOVING NNE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. NAM/RAP MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE A SHEARING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND A SLIGHT WOBBLE WEST. DUE TO ITS WEAK NATURE AND OVERALL STABLE FEATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, HAVE PULLED BACK POPS FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE SKY COVER FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO INTERPRET IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS THE LOW WEAKENS. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A RIBBON OF UPGLIDE JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS WHY ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER FURTHER WEST OVER NW AL THAN AREAS EAST. SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE BREAKDOWN AND LIFTING OF THE WEAK "GULF" LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. BY FRIDAY, IT APPEARS LITTLE (IF ANY) EFFECT FROM THE GULF LOW IS NOTED AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NE WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMOVED COMPLETELY FROM FRIDAY'S FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, ON THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EFFECT FROM THIS VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING WHAT COULD BE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES. BY FRIDAY, SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE OCCURRED OVER E CO, TRACKING NE ACROSS THE UPPER MS/MO RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PARENT TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS WI/ONTARIO. THE ACCOMPANYING STRONG NW WILL PUSH A CP AIR MASS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS STATES. ALSO, THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF FL INTO GA/AL BY THE ONCOMING TROUGH. IT LOOKS TO THEN MERGE WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST, THE BULK OF THE PVA LIFTS TO THE NORTH LEAVING A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THE LATEST MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT DOES ACTUALLY SHOW AN OVERALL SLOW PROGRESSION--LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, WHETHER IT IS BELIEVABLE OR NOT, THE MODELS DEPICT THAT THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, BEGAN SCALING BACK POPS ON SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LEFT SUNDAY POPS INTACT. HOWEVER, DID RETAIN POPS FOR A LONGER TIME PERIOD ON MONDAY GIVEN THIS TREND. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED IN THE LONG TERM TO REFLECT A SLOWER PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN GUIDANCE. SL.77 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 291057 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 657 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR DRY WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DESPITE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF RELATIVELY LARGER DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS AND SATURATED AIR SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MID LEVEL DECK. OTHERWISE...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE VERY LOW. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET PER LATEST MODEL RUNS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...TWEAKING UP COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z MON...ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO FROM NE TO SW. ASSOC 500MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE NOW KEEPING THE FRONT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED S/SW WIND. UPPER S/W TROUGH HOWEVER DOES CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OH BY 18Z MON AND CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER INTO WV BY 00Z TUE. THE LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE NW ZONES BTWN 12Z-18Z MON AWAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT. VORT MAX ASSOC WITH S/W TROUGH PUSHES INTO WESTERN ZONES BY 18Z MON BUT FLOW IS VERY WEAK THROUGH IT AND THUS LIFT ASSOC WITH PVA OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WELL. DYNAMICS/FLOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED IN LATEST NAM12. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. AMOUNTS OF PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. INHERITED MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK. MONDAY NIGHT THE S/W TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z TUE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM CRW TO CKB AND POINTS EASTWARD AT 00Z TUE SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY 06Z TUE IF NOT SOONER. WILL HANG ONTO SOME SKY COVER OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE USUAL RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE SOME PRECIP MONDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 50S IN THE SE OHIO ZONES...WHICH PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. BY TUESDAY HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD...WITH AXIS OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY INSISTENT UPON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME TRAPPED LLVL MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH A CONVECTIVE DEPTH OF AROUND 5KFT. HOWEVER...WITH AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGING AS WELL AS NO REAL CONVERGENCE SEEN ON THE RIDGE TOPS...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER VERSUS MONDAY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOOK FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY WED MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS...AND WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TEMPS HERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER VERSUS MON NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EASTWARD MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY GENERATE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AGAIN STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MID LEVEL DECK ABOUT 5000 FEET EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES MANDATED AN UPDATE TO SKIES GRIDS. THESE CLOUDS PREVENTED FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED FOG FROM FORECAST THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DISSIPATION SUN MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MON MORNING. IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER MON MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...ARJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 280608 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 208 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR DRY WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS FEW SITES WERE OFF BY FEW DEGREES.AS A RESULT...LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TWO TO THREE DEGREES COLDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA. ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS ADDING LOW STRATUS OVER POCAHONTAS AND PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTIES. SMALL AREAS OF FOG EVIDENT IN MODIS SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL AT 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH 13Z. THEN...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY 15Z. 800 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH RIVER VALLY FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEING THE MAIN IMPACT EVENT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME CU ACROSS MAINLY WV...AND IN PARTICULAR THE MORE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL DRIVE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. USED BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR SATURDAYS HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE AND COOL FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...COMING UP AGAINST A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THAT WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT. MOISTURE DECREASES WITH ITS APPROACH AS SOUTHERLY INFLOW WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE FLATTENS OUT. THE END RESULT WILL BE TO DELAY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT STAYING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER SUPPORT IS SLOW TO MOVE AS IT WAITS FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW TO LIFT OUT. IN ANY CASE...QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT BEST. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS IT IS UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THUS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO DECREASING CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EWD MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER. DAY 7 FINDS THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE E COAST...SO TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS PERIOD AFTER...A SEASONABLY COOL START. MODELS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD ON TIMING OF YIELDING OF UPPER RIDGE TO NEXT S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE TO LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN CONUS BEYOND DAY 7...AND OF INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION. FCST FOLLOWS WPC TIMING ON FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...WHICH STIFF-ARMS POPS THROUGH DAY 7 NT...12Z SAT. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS FASTER...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON / FRI NT. THE SLOWER GFS PUSHED IT THROUGH LATE FRI NT...THE 18Z RUN MUCH SLOWER AGAIN...HOLDING THE FRONT BACK TO THE W UNTIL SAT / DAY 8...IN SUPPORT OF THE WPC SOLN. HIGHS CLOSE TO MEXBC/WPC AND LOWS BELOW MEX/WPC EARLY ON THEN CLOSE TO MEXBC/WPC EVOLVING TO WPC WHICH IS ABOVE MEX/MEXBC LATE IN THE PD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 07Z...AND TO IFR/LIFR ON DENSE FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AROUND 09Z. DENSE FOG MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. BKW WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH GENTLE WINDS ABLE TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. LINGERED FOG/LOW CIGS THROUGH 13Z- 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DISSIPATION SAT MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/28/13 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 270709 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 209 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013 .DISCUSSION... A SPRAWLING SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WITH TIME, RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL SPILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE DAYS AFTER COMFORTABLY COOL MORNINGS. VALLEY FOG IS BECOMING PREVALENT THIS MORNING PER GOES AND MODIS IMAGERY, BUT MAY BE LESS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE +/- A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND/OR DISSIPATE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND WILL NOT REACH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NONETHELESS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SEGMENT OF VORTICITY THAT BREAKS OFF FROM THE DEPARTING MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAINTAINS AN 850 MB (LOW LEVEL) LOW AND CIRCULATION OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WHICH GENERATES VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS TENDS TO FOCUS MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SW. INITIALLY, THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM OCCURRING IN OUR AREA THRU SUNDAY. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT CHANGED THE LOW POPS WE HAVE GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY UP FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS. AK && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1207 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/ FOR 06Z TAFS... WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 6SM BR/HZ BEFORE DAYBREAK...VFR FLYING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD BECOME ESE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS AGAIN WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER DUSK FRI PM. RB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 83 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 SHOALS 85 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 VINEMONT 81 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 FAYETTEVILLE 84 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALBERTVILLE 82 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 FORT PAYNE 83 55 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 200940 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 540 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. AN OMEGA BLOCK AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL LIKELY BE PARKED OVR THE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLEAR SKIES...A CALM WIND AND INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM. MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOST EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS/FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. LEANING TOWARD AN SPS RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY TO COVER LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS AM. VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z-14Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BASED ON 3KM HRRR SFC RH AND WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK...WHICH HAS WORKED INTO SOMERSET AND WARREN COUNTIES...MAY TAKE UNTIL ALMOST NOON TO LIFT/BREAK UP INTO SCT-BKN CU FIELD. HIGHER PWAT AIR ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PA AND LEAD TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU THIS AFTN...WHILE DRIER AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. CAN/T RULE OUT A VERY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORE HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE W MTNS. HOWEVER...UPPER LVL RIDGING AND ASSOC WARM MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. GEFS 925TEMPS BTWN 16C-21C FROM SE TO NW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE M/U70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SHORT RANGE MDLS IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONT....WHICH SHOULD ENTER THE NW MTNS LATE SAT AM AND EXIT EASTERN PA DURING THE EVENING HRS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL PRECEDE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BRINGING A DECENT RAINFALL TO MOST OF CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF AND GEFS OUTPUT INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TOTALS NR 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCAL TOTALS ARND 2 INCHES MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE AND SLOWING OF FRONT SAT EVENING. MDL CAPES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLGHT CHC OF EMBEDDED TSRA. GEFS AND SREF OUTPUT BOTH SUPPORT POPS NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY. CURRENT MDL TIMING SUGGESTS THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE AFTN HRS...WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS. BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE W MTNS ARND 21Z AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY ARND MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE M/U60S SAT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE THE SUSQ VALLEY IS LIKELY TO GET INTO THE L/70S BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOC COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL PASS THRU PA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF DIURNAL CU. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE N MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW PWAT AIR MASS IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN IN MANY SPOTS. ENS MEAN 925TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE U50S ACROSS THE W MTNS...TO THE U60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING CDFRONT AND HIGH PRES OVR THE WESTERN LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE NW WIND ON SUNDAY...ADDING TO THE FALL-LIKE FEEL. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK...MOST OF WHICH INDICATE PA WILL BE UNDER RIDGE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER. GEFS 925/850 TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AND PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME COOL MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL PA...GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NOW MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR THESE DEWPOINTS...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED WITH SOME AREAS /ESP IN THE NORTHWEST MTNS/ DROPPING TO VLIFR WITH CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE. ALL TAF SITES...IF IT HASN/T BEGUN ALREADY...SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 14Z. RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE WEST WHERE A LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING OVER TOP OF THE FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS RETURNING TO THE VFR RANGE FOR ALL BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN LOWER CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST AFTER 09Z. OUTLOOK... SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS AREA-WIDE. SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND SE PA AIRFIELDS. MON AND TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 191256 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 847 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND STRATO CU COVERING ABOUT THE WRN 40 PERCENT OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ONLY SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSOLVING FROM THE EDGES AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND EXCELLENT VSBY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LOWS CLOUDS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP TO A BKN CU FIELD DURING THE MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE W MTNS. CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME THIN... HIGH-BASED STRATO CU. WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES OCCURRED...MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY...AND THE FIRST FEW VSBL SHOTS SHOW FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA AND THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 13-14Z. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE L/M70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH MINS FROM THE U40S TO L50S MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH PWATS AND 8H TEMPS WELL ABV SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS WESTERN PA FRIDAY. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE W MTNS BY LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SKIES SHOULD RANGE FROM PTSUNNY ACROSS THE W MTNS...TO SUNNY E OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHERE LOWER PWAT AIR WILL LINGER. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS RISE ABOUT 2C FROM THOSE OF TDY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS BTWN 75-80F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY MINOR TIMING DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO FROPA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LATEST GEFS/SREF AND OPER RUNS SUPPORT RAINFALL BTWN 0.5 AND ONE INCH OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSS...AS PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WITH GULF OF MEX CONNECTION WORKS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF CDFRONT. ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER INDICATED BY MDL 850-500RH FIELDS AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY PRETTY MEAGER CAPES SAT AFTN...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOW INDICATED THAN A DAY AGO...WITH BULK OF MDL DATA PUSHING CDFRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHC IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS WHICH STILL DEVELOP WAVE ON FRONT AND KEEP SHRA GOING ACROSS EASTERN PA SUNDAY. A TRANQUIL WX PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA NEXT WEEK...AS NEARLY ALL MED RANGE MDL DATA KEEP CENTRAL PA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. 925-850MB TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME COOL NIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR AND PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS W PA. AN AREA OF IFR-MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BLANKET KJST-KAOO-KFIG-KBFD TAF SITES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG TIL 14Z. LOWER CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 16-18Z. CIG RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LIKELY EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OCNL MVFR CIGS ALSO POSS AT KJST-KBFD IN SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. FRI NIGHT...PATCHY FOG. LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE. SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP SE. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 191007 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 607 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS WESTERN PA EARLY THIS AM...THE RESULT OF COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SATL TRENDS SUGGEST ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE COVERED BY THIS DECK OF LOW CLOUDS BY 12Z. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR...MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z BASED ON LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC RH. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF MUCH HIGHER DWPTS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLOW CLEARING FROM EARLY AM STRATOCU. EXPECT THE LOWS CLOUDS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP TO A BKN CU FIELD BY AFTN ACROSS THE W MTNS. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE L/M70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH MINS FROM THE U40S TO L50S MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH PWATS AND 8H TEMPS WELL ABV SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS WESTERN PA FRIDAY. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE W MTNS BY LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SKIES SHOULD RANGE FROM PTSUNNY ACROSS THE W MTNS...TO SUNNY E OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHERE LOWER PWAT AIR WILL LINGER. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS RISE ABOUT 2C FROM THOSE OF TDY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS BTWN 75-80F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY MINOR TIMING DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO FROPA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LATEST GEFS/SREF AND OPER RUNS SUPPORT RAINFALL BTWN 0.5 AND ONE INCH OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSS...AS PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WITH GULF OF MEX CONNECTION WORKS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF CDFRONT. ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER INDICATED BY MDL 850-500RH FIELDS AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY PRETTY MEAGER CAPES SAT AFTN...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOW INDICATED THAN A DAY AGO...WITH BULK OF MDL DATA PUSHING CDFRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHC IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS WHICH STILL DEVELOP WAVE ON FRONT AND KEEP SHRA GOING ACROSS EASTERN PA SUNDAY. A TRANQUIL WX PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA NEXT WEEK...AS NEARLY ALL MED RANGE MDL DATA KEEP CENTRAL PA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. 925-850MB TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME COOL NIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR AND PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS W PA. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL WORK INTO KJST-KAOO-KFIG-KBFD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH CIGS DIPPING TO IFR AT KJST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG. LOWER CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS LAYER MIXES...LEAVING A VFR DAY AREAWIDE. CIG RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LIKELY EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OCNL MVFR CIGS ALSO POSS AT KJST-KBFD IN SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. FRI NIGHT...PATCHY FOG. LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE. SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP SE. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ATHW40 PHFO 081831 SIMHI HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1830 UTC SUN SEP 08 2013 BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC SEPTEMBER 08 2013 AS OF 8 AM HST...THE TRAILING SIDE OF A 130 MILE WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHOWERY CUMULUS WAS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE BIG ISLAND AS IT HEADED WEST. THIS BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WAS CENTERED ON A LINE FROM 280 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIIHAU TO 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. MIMIC...MODIS...AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWED THIS BAND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE RIDING ON TRADE WINDS. THERE WERE STILL SOME LINGERING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERY CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND BRUSHING THE KAU AND PUNA DISTRICTS...AND SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. OVER AND UPSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES... MAINLY JUST FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE NOTED. LOW CLOUD MOTION WAS TOWARD JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 20 MILES AN HOUR. ON LAND...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD FACING SLOPES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER ISLAND INTERIORS AND LEEWARD SECTIONS. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS WITHIN 75 MILES OF A LINE FROM 9N 170W TO 14N 164W. THIS IS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU AND 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA WERE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 49000 FEET. THIS AREA IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE NEARLY STATIONARY REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT WERE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERY CUMULUS...ALONG WITH SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS WITH TOPS TO 39000 FEET...WERE ALONG A LINE THROUGH 30N163W 26N175W. $$ R BALLARD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 080834 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 434 AM AST SUN SEP 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY MON THEN YIELD TO RETROGRESSING TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC. TUTT WILL REACH PR TUE. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THU. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING WITH STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING MAINLAND PR AND OUTFLOW BDRY MOVING EWD OVR THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. FOR TODAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONION-SHAPED LOW LEVEL TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATIVE OF DOWNDRAFTS FROM MCS AND WARMING AND DRYING EFFECTS OF SUBSIDENCE. MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AS SAL ARRIVES. 08/0145Z MODIS TERRA DUST RGB PRODUCT (12-11 MICRON CHANNEL DIFFERENCING) SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN DUST APPROACHING BARBADOS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER PR BY MON. OVERALL...VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON MON. UNUSUALLY DEEP TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL AMPLIFY AND RETROGRESS TOWARD PR BY TUE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BEING A PRETTY DEEP FEATURE AS IT REFLECTS TO 500 MB WITH 200 MB HEIGHTS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND COOL MID-LEVEL H5 TEMPS CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WHILE MOISTURE SEEMS SOMEWHAT LIMITED VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD COMPENSATE AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH SAL. BETTER MOISTURE IS FCST BEGINNING THU AS SAL DEPARTS. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FORMER INVEST 98L LOCATED NEAR 16.4N AND 36.5W. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING WNW AND THEN DIVING WSW REACHING PR OVR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT MODELS SHOW FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING SOME AS IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIG LEFT OVER FM OVERNIGHT SHRA/TSRA WL GRDLY IMPRV BEFORE SUNRISE. TIST/TISX MIGHT STILL GET MVFR IN TSRA OR BRF IFR THIS MRNG IF CONVECTION CONT MOVG E FM VIEQUES/CULEBRA. WL INCLUDE PDS MVFR ACCORDINGLY. OTHW SHRA/TSRA TO BE ISOLD TDY XCPT SCT NW PR. SAHARAN AIR WL BGN TO AFFECT AREA LATE TDY...PSBL FALSE CIGS FOR TIST/TISX ASOS ON SAT. WINDS SFC-FL100 S TO SE 10-18 KT BCMG ESE NR 10 KT BY SAT AFT. && .MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT AND WINDS UP 20 KT. SCT TSRA MAINLY ERN WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN ENE SWELLS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 0 STT 82 78 89 81 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 031351 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 551 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...TWO STORIES FOR THIS SHIFT, THE SURFACE RIDGE FIRMLY PLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND INTERIOR PANHANDLE ALLOWING THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER TO SATURATE INTO RADIATIONAL FOG. THIS OCCURRED SOMEWHAT LATER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE METEOROLOGY ASSOCIATED WITH FOG SEEMED SOUND OVER THE SOUTH WITH NE'ER A CLOUD IN THE SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT MILES AWAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGE AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS WERE CLEARLY INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WERE A TOUGHER CALL. THE ORIGINAL FEELING THAT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AREA AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SURFACE RADIATION. YET WITH STILL SOME MOISTURE IN THE AIR CONTRIBUTED FROM A LOW TIDE SITUATION AS WELL AS RESIDUAL LEFT ON THE GROUND FROM THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN TOTALS, AND AN APPARENT MORE BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU ABOVE, AREAS NEAR JUNEAU, WRANGELL, PETERSBURG, AND POSSIBLY KAKE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DENSE FOG. AN EXPANDED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS JUST ISSUED TO COVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 10 AM. STILL INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES, AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST AND SOUTH. THE SECOND STORY IS THE APPROACHING FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. YAKUTAT IS ALREADY RAINING AND THEIR WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO COME UP FROM THE EAST. WINDS AT BUOY 82 ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE AND THESE WINDS WILL STRETCH INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE WEAKENING TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON. YAKUTAT BAY WILL ALSO GO TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HEALTHY WIND SHEAR AT 2000 FEET WITH THIS FRONT LASTING ALMOST 12 HOURS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING A WALL OF RAIN TO REACH YAKUTAT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY WITH AN ADDITION INCH OR INCH AND A HALF TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TIMING SKETCHY, BUT FEEL MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR JUNEAU AND NORTHERN BARANOF ISLAND...BEGINNING EARLIER FROM SKAGWAY DOWN TO CROSS SOUND. REGARDING INSIDE WATER WINDS, DID GO SMALL CRAFT LATE TONIGHT FOR CROSS SOUND AND FEEL NORTHERN LYNN WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AND LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE YUKON. MODELS OF CHOICE WAS ECMWF/GFS WITH SREF USED FOR POP FIELDS. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...MAIN FOCUS FOR LONGER RANGE WAS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM MOVING N INTO THE GULF. MODELS AGREE IN GENERAL THAT A LOW WILL TRACK N TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS SLY AND UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE FURTHER W THAN IT WILL BE WITH THE MIDWEEK FRONT...SO THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WINDS FOR FRI-FRI NIGHT PERIODS OVER THE GULF. USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR WED-FRI NIGHT...THEN BASICALLY KEPT IN OR ADJUSTED TO WPC FOR SAT ONWARD...DEPENDING ON WHAT WAS THERE PREVIOUSLY. FIRST FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST LATE WED...THEN STALL THERE WHILE WEAKENING. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. ONE TRICKY ASPECT WITH THIS FRONT IS HOW FAST PRECIP AHEAD OF IT DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THE MODEL BLEND WAS A MIDDLE GROUND COMPROMISE ON THIS...DIMINISHING THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY THU. PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NE GULF COAST WED MORNING...BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP GOING INTO WED NIGHT. THE FAR SERN AREA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...MAINLY FROM PAKT/PANT EWD WED INTO THU. LYNN CANAL WILL SEE THE MOST WIND OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER NRN LYNN CANAL WED AFTERNOON. PAGY MAY NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR WED INTO WED EVENING AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS THAT IS A 3RD-4TH PERIOD EVENT. LOOKS LIKE GALES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE GULF FOR FRI AS NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS IN. ENDED UP LOWERING SEAS FROM INITIAL GUIDANCE FROM AKWAVE AND OUTSIDE WATERS TOOL AS WFO PAFC DID NOT WANT TO JUMP THE SEAS UP AS MUCH AS I HAD INITIALLY...UP TO 20-22 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE HANDLING SYSTEM LIKE THEY ARE...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RAISE SEAS DUE TO THE FAIRLY LONG SLY FETCH. AFTER SAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT SO GOING THE WPC ROUTE WAS THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR NOW. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025>029. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-042-043-051-053. && $$ JWA/RWT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 300221 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 921 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013 .UPDATE...WHILE BULK OF FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL CAPPING WEAKENS. MID- LEVEL STEERING WINDS NORTHWEST FOR A TIME BEFORE BACKING TO MORE WESTERLY. HENCE ENOUGH TO WARRENT KEEPING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER NORTHEAST CWA LATER TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT WITH CAPES EXCEEDING 2500 J. ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS OVER CWA AS FRONT SAGS THROUGH. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW AREAS BUT COUNTING ON MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND EVENTUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH TO PREVENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF FOG WITH LOWER VSBYS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CDFNT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER ERN TAF SITES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SHALLOW SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO INTRODUCE CIGS. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED THAT THE STRONG LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAD WEAKENED. THE BULK OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...LESSENING THE COOLING EFFECT ON HUMID AIR OVER THE LAKE. HENCE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. LATEST VISIBLE WEBCAM IMAGES WAS SHOWING SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE EAST OF SGNW3. MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013/ VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MAIN ISSUES FOR THIS PERIOD ARE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FRIDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT...REACHING AN IRON MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN TO WINONA MINNESOTA LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH 850MB LOW LEVEL JET/FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL...OR RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT LOWER END POPS FOR TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...IN CASE ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THAT AREA. WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S INTO MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 99 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING 100 OR HIGHER. WILL MENTION THIS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERATING PRECIPITATION BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM QUICKER WITH ITS MOVEMENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WRF/NMM 4KM MODEL FROM SPC DOES NOT GENERATE A LOT OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE IS FAIRLY ROBUST...THOUGH 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MISSES AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUTPACES THE FRONT. NO JET DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF EITHER. THUS...LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...COULD NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION. SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOT QUITE OUT OF CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...WITH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG SURFACE FRONT SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE WEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. COOL AIR STREAMING IN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING 6C TO 8C BETWEEN 00Z SATURDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE FOG POTENTIAL WITH PATCHY EVERYWHERE AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. WILL SEE 925 MB TEMPS RECOVER ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 WELL INLAND SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE COOLED BY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH MID 70S NEAR THE LAKE AND A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. WILL HAVE COLLABORATIVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVES IN WEST OF MADISON WITH THE FRONT BY 18Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER ON SUNDAY EVENING...THEN COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH NNW UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE EXTENDED DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE EARLY EXTENDED CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND KENOSHA. SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES...ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND VEER SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL TO MADISON AND KENOSHA IN THE 09Z TO 14Z FRIDAY PERIOD. WENT JUST VFR FOG IN TAFS FOR NOW. SOME SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO TAF SITES AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY UNTIL AROUND 03Z TO 05Z SATURDAY. USING VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. MARINE...SOME HAZINESS/PATCHY FOG SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMERAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY OUT BEYOND THE BREAKWATER. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...GIVEN EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS. DESPITE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST IF NEEDED. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 291344 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 545 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013 .SHORT TERM...FOG IS ONCE AGAIN A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING THOUGH IT IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. IMAGES FROM MODIS AND NPP SHOW SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND GLACIER BAY, YAKUTAT BAY, AND HAINES. THE DENSEST FOG THIS MORNING IS AROUND YAKUTAT WHERE VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THOUGH THE OBSERVER THERE REPORTS THAT THE FOG IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET THICK VERTICALLY. DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR YAKUTAT UNTIL 8 AM THROUGH THE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT LAST LONG WITH HOW SHALLOW THE FOG IS. SOME VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT PETERSBURG, AND JUNEAU THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. SKIES, WHERE THE FOG DOES NOT OBSCURE IT, ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION IS HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHERE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LAYER OF CLOUDS STILL LINGERS FROM THE WEAK FRONT FROM YESTERDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FIRST OF A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. NO PRECIP HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM THESE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE YET BUT SOME CANADIAN OBS FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO MOST AREAS. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL MAINLY BE CONFOUNDED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IF IT DOES RAIN AT ALL. AS SUCH HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS UP FOR THOSE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS FARTHER NORTH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AS THE SE FLOW WITH A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO IT WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO DROP WHATEVER MOISTURE THEY HAVE ON THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THERE STILL MIGHT BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING FOR IT TO FORM. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM OVER THE PANHANDLE AS MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. THERE A STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CAUSE SOME SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF TODAY. WITH THE LOW DIVING TO THE SE TONIGHT THOSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS TODAY WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH IT LOOKED LIKE NAM AND GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT FEATURES. DECIDED ON UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND A BIT OF NAM. && .LONG TERM...ALL 29/00Z OPS MODELS INSIST ON SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS A RELATIVELY STRONG PLANETARY SCALE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE SE TO ARRIVE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT WILL BE WESTERLIES ALONG 60N OR SO WHICH OPENS THE WAY FOR UPR SHORTWAVES AND SOME WET. THIS PATTERN WAS ACCEPTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND CONTINUED IN THIS MORNINGS FORECASTS. THIS PATTERN KEEPS REAL WIND MAKERS AWAY...BUT DOES ALLOW FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION SAT & SAT NITE DUE TO A VERY LONG FETCH FROM THE WSW. NEW MODEL RUNS TAKE UNTIL 12Z MONDAY TO BUILD A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER RIDGE INTO 140W BUT THIS WILL BE A DIRTY RIDGE - ONE WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO FORECASTS IN THE LONGER RANGE REMAIN UNCHANGED. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT DAILY ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING ON THE EVENTUAL SET UP FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR A WETTER REGIME. CONFIDENCE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY THEN LOOK FOR TIMING ADJUSTS...MOST LIKELY A DELAY ON SW FLOW ALOFT IF A STORM IN THE BERING IS DEEPER ON TUE THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. THAT STORM WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR AND ITS EARLY FOR THAT. KEEP WATCHING FOR OLD TYPHOON REMNANTS TO GET INTO OUR FLOW. SAT & SAT NITE WILL BE A TASTE OF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING INTO THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ZONE ADVISORY ZONE 17. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ052. && $$ EAL/JC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 290251 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 951 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013 .UPDATE...VSBY QUICKLY DROPPED TO 1/4SM AT KENW JUST AFTER LOW STRATUS AREA PASSED BY. HOWEVER KENW WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN HIGHER AND LOWER VSBYS THROUGH 08-09Z DUE TO AREA OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST CWA ATTM. POSTED DENSE FOG ADVY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST HOWEVER AS EXPECT VSBYS TO FALL AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FARTHER NORTH...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH KEFT/KMRJ AREAS MORE CLOSELY DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LESS EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN NON-ADVY AREAS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS FAVOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER PERIOD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI THROUGH 08-09Z. HENCE WL LIMIT PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS TO LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN KENW WHICH HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO 1/4SM VSBY. LIKELY WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME AS CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS BUT WL LIKELY DROP BACK TO IFR OR LOWER LATE TONIGHT. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND RECENT SGNW3 SUGGEST RECENT OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS IN PORTIONS OF NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE COOLER WATERS IN THE 50S WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...MORE OF A ADVECTION VERSUS RADIATION SCENARIO OVER LAKE MI. HENCE WL CONTINUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY THROUGH THU MRNG. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING/MIXING OUT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT/CALM WINDS...BUT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONLY THING PREVENTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IS THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT. IF THESE DO NOT MATERIALIZE AS ANTICIPATED...DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. STILL...WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 09Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG LEADING UP TO THAT PERIOD. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TO THE AREA. 925MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH LOWER 80S LAKESIDE. THIS IS RELIANT ON FOG MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING. ADDED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREAS LATE THURSDAY...AS FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CLIPS THAT AREA WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR/U.P. AREA. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE STAYS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TWO PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ONE WITH THE MODERATE 35 KNOT 850 KNOT JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS TO OUR NORTH BUT THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RAISES TO 1200 J/KG. THEN THE INCREASED 850 MB WINDS SAG INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSSES SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 925/850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE INCREASES TO 3000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EHI VALUES RISE TO 2 TO 4 WITH ZERO TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS. THE LOCAL SEVERE CWASP PARAMETER INCREASES TO AROUND 65 PCT. AS A RESULT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CIPS ANALOG HAS QUITE A FEW SEVERE REPORTS INDICATED ESPECIALLY WIND BUT THERE IS ALSO A FEW HAIL AND TORNADOES REPORTS. SPC HAS A 5 PCT SEVERE RISK AT THIS MOMENT...AND COULD BE UPGRADED. THE NAM KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD THEN END THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...;WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM... LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTH LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, THEN A SECONDARY SURGE OF VERY COOL AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...EXCEPT SOME CEILINGS NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. VISIBILITIES BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND PERHAPS DOWN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH FOG AT ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER ON THURSDAY. LOW CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD MIX OUT EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z THURSDAY AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. POTENTIAL THERE FOR DENSE FOG BELOW 1/4 MILE DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THICK THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE DURING THAT TIME. FOR NOW...WILL GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS BUT ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS FROM 09Z TO 14Z THURSDAY. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MARINE... EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DENSE FOG...CONFIRMED BY AREA WEB CAMERAS NEAR THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ070>072. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 270734 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 334 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND MODIFYING THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A TIMELY MODIS TOTAL PRECIPITATION WATER IMAGE SHOW THAT THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE ONLY SHOWING UP AROUND 825 MB. THIS DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST WHERE A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS H3R AND THE NSSL 4KM WRF DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF MID-LEVEL THETA POOLING. WILL HIGHLIGHT A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. DRY WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED THE REGION AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO 70-75 AT THE BEACHES. WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN THE EAST COAST BY MID WEEK...WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RETREATS SLIGHTLY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO SLIP ALONG THE WEAKENING SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN THE SURFACE TROUGH MAKES STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...COULD ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT INTO THE FAR INLAND/NORTHERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SINCE DETAILS OF RAIN POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MORE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...PREFER TO CAP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IF BETTER CONSISTENCY BECOMES EVIDENT...SUBSEQUENT FORECAST SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY OF WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER QUIET...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THURSDAY...THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...SUPPORTING THE ORGANIZATION OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE STILL EVIDENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. SINCE THE FRONT WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S INLAND. FRIDAY...THE WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH DIMINISHES UPON APPROACH. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE PROMINENT WESTERN RIDGE...YET LINGERING CONVERGENCE FROM THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 90 DEGREES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT...A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY BE WEAKER AND ILL-DEFINED...WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT NOTABLE SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION BY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THUS PREFER TO REMAIN GENERIC WITH FORECAST DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES. WILL INDICATE A SEASONAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE BEST CONVERGENCE/ INSTABILITY TRANSITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. HAVE ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY...WHEN PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION COULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... TODAY...QUITE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...2-3 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING IS MAINTAINED INLAND. WINDS WILL PICK UP JUST A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME NOCTURNAL SURGING TAKES HOLD...BUT WINDS LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...2-3 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STEADILY EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST MID WEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DESCEND INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND LINGER SATURDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING AND DIRECTIONS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST/WMS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 221445 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1045 AM AST THU AUG 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER PR THROUGH FRI. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN AND HOLD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION OVR PR TODAY AND 12Z RAOB SHOWS COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -9C AT 500 MB SO ANY POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING COULD YIELD A STRONG TSTM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL. NEGATIVE FACTOR APPEARS TO BE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES SOUNDER PRODUCT. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SEEM SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL FOR AN ACTIVE DAY. AFTER TODAY...LOW-MID LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA. SOME DUST HAZE WAS NOTED ON THE MODIS AQUA DUST RGB PRODUCT FROM LAST NIGHT AND PSEUDO-NATURAL COLOR METEOSAT IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN SO FAR THIS SUMMER. ANYWAY...IT SHOULDN'T CAUSE ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OR AIR QUALITY ISSUES. && .AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PR TERMINALS WITH A TSTM LIKELY AT JMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. TSTMS OVER CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 84 80 89 81 / 30 30 30 10 STT 82 79 90 81 / 20 50 50 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 64/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 201001 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 601 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS PA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM. MANY LOCATIONS AOB 1/4SM VSBY AT 09Z...SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 13Z. 3KM HRRR SFC RH SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS BY ARND 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS UNTIL 14Z. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ENSURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 16C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND UNDER SFC HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RH/S WILL BE MUCH LOWER GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SO EXPECT THE DENSE FOG TO BE ISOLATED TO THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE E COAST ON WED AND CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVR ILLINOIS...WILL BE LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA. LG SCALE FORCING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPS/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP...WITH AFTN READINGS LIKELY RANGING FROM THE L80S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE U80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LITTLE SPREAD NOTED AMONG 00Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH SHOW UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT LIFTS INTO PA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THEN MERGES WITH MAIN BRANCH OF JET AS IT AND ASSOC COLD FRONT DIVE SE INTO PA LATE THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WED NITE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY THU PM. WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT CENTRAL PA WILL SEE A RETURN TO COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDS FRI-SUN...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES AND ASSOC NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES BUILD SE INTO PA. HAVE REDUCED MIN TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF RAD COOLING. HOWEVER...ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 12C SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS NR LATE AUGUST NORMALS. BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING RETURN SW FLOW OF WARMER/MORE HUMID CONDS AND THE CHC OF CONVECTION ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE MIDWEST. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS PA THIS MIDWEEK. DWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING BTWN 0-3F ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE DENSE...ESP IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND WHERE THERE WAS RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BURN-OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THOUGH MVFR MAY LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR. FOG RETURNS FOR LATE TUE NIGHT...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND THICK AS THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...VFR. FRI...MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. SAT...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 151427 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1027 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 .UPDATE...VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO AFTERNOON GRIDS OTHERWISE LEFT THEM AS IS. && .DISCUSSION...FEW TINY SHOWERS ARE PASSING BY THE ISLANDS OFFSHORE BUT ANYTHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL IS NOTED BY GUDADELOUPE RADAR (METEO-FRANCE) CURRENTLY 60W-61W AT THE LEADING PART OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THERE...BUT CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR. WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS AS IT ARRIVES FOR HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURE TO INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST VERY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TOMORROW. && .AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA BY AFT AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA SOUTHWEST PR. TAFS TO REMAINS VFR THROUGH AFT XCP PERHAPS MVFR AT TJMZ. LOOKING FOR SHRA/TSRA TO ARRIVE AT TNCM/TKPK IN EVE AND TIST/TISX BY 06Z. WINDS BLO FL150 ENE 16-27 KT BCMG E ON FRI. && .MARINE...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS THEY STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KT/6 FT EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013/ SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVR PR WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA FRI. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM WED SHOWED SAHARAN DUST OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OVR PR TODAY. TUTT AXIS OVR PR TODAY WITH ISOLD LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PR UNDER A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 56W. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE LEEWARDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST PR AND USVI AFTER 06Z. MODELS SHOW A SHARP INCREASE IN PW AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH VALUES INCREASING MORE THAN HALF INCH IN LESS THAN 6 HRS WITH PRETTY DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVR NORTHEAST PR. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY NORTHEAST PR WHERE SIG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY. MID-LEVELS DRY OUT SAT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR NORTHWEST PR UNDER A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING A TWO-DAY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SIG RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON TUE. TD FIVE IS VERY FAR AWAY MORE THAN 2000 MILES FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND IS FCST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEYOND DAY 5 TUE ACCORDING TO NHC/WPC OFFICIAL MEDIUM RANGE FCST. EVEN IF IT WERE TO IMPACT THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT FRI AUG 23. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 15/18Z-21Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFTER 16/00Z. ATTM...VCTS WERE INCLUDED IN TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 15/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST UP TO 2 KT...THEN AFT 15/13Z AT AROUND 10 TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX. MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE SQUALLS FRI ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT INDUCED SFC TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OVR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 82 89 81 / 10 70 80 50 STT 90 82 90 82 / 10 70 70 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/71  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 150830 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 430 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVR PR WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA FRI. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM WED SHOWED SAHARAN DUST OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OVR PR TODAY. TUTT AXIS OVR PR TODAY WITH ISOLD LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PR UNDER A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 56W. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE LEEWARDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST PR AND USVI AFTER 06Z. MODELS SHOW A SHARP INCREASE IN PW AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH VALUES INCREASING MORE THAN HALF INCH IN LESS THAN 6 HRS WITH PRETTY DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVR NORTHEAST PR. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY NORTHEAST PR WHERE SIG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY. MID-LEVELS DRY OUT SAT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR NORTHWEST PR UNDER A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING A TWO-DAY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SIG RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON TUE. TD FIVE IS VERY FAR AWAY MORE THAN 2000 MILES FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND IS FCST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEYOND DAY 5 TUE ACCORDING TO NHC/WPC OFFICIAL MEDIUM RANGE FCST. EVEN IF IT WERE TO IMPACT THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT FRI AUG 23. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 15/18Z-21Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFTER 16/00Z. ATTM...VCTS WERE INCLUDED IN TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 15/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST UP TO 2 KT...THEN AFT 15/13Z AT AROUND 10 TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE SQUALLS FRI ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT INDUCED SFC TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OVR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 82 89 81 / 10 70 80 50 STT 90 82 90 82 / 10 70 70 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 27/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 140834 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 434 AM AST WED AUG 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BUILD OVR PR LATER TODAY THEN MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA THU. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MAINLY QUIET TODAY AND THU UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT. STILL HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST PR TODAY AND SOUTHWEST PR THU AS STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWS SOME SAHARAN DUST HAZE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC ATTM AHEAD OF FRIDAY'S WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT AMOUNT OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND HIGH PW AIR AS ANALYZED BY GFS AND AS SEEN BY BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL START REACHING ERN PR AND THE USVI FRI MORNING AND COULD GENERATE SOME SQUALLY WX AS IT ENTERS SAL OVER PR. WAVE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS FRI ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI. THINGS QUIET DOWN A BIT SAT-SUN BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE AND UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE THEN TURNING WETTER LATE MON AND TUE AS ANOTHER WAVE (INVEST 93L) INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER TUTT. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE BECOMING A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS THEY ALSO SHOW WAVE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE DUE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH TUTT. ANOTHER WAVE STILL OVR THE AFRICAN CONTINENT HAS A LOT MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO BECOME A STRONGER TC IN THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING WITH INVEST 93L BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR MORE ACTIVE WETTER PATTERN EARLY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR POSBL WED AFT BTWN 14 /17Z-21Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE VRB UP TO 6 KT AT TJSJ/TJPS/TJMZ AND TJBQ...THEN AFT 14/12Z E-ESE WINDS AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS BLO 2KFT. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SQUALLY WX POSSIBLE FRI WITH ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL WAVE. SCEC'S IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 85 81 83 81 / 20 10 10 70 STT 83 82 82 81 / 10 10 10 70 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 27/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 110716 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 316 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 CU FIELD IN PLACE EXCEPT OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SOME CLOUDS...BUT A SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS SET TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SUN. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURROUNDING CONVECTION. AS WITH MOST SHORTWAVES...MODELS DO NOT HANDLE TO TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM UNIFORMLY...SO IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME CONVECTION. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURROUNDING CONVECTION. THE NAM HAS THE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF MOST OF THE MODELS...BUT IT HAS SEEMED TO HAVE TOO MUCH MOISTURE FOR A WHILE NOW...SO IT WAS SOMEWHAT DISCARDED FOR THIS FORECAST. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY OVER S CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ADD ADDITIONAL FORCING/...WHICH IS WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS. DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013 A QUIET WEEK IS IN THE MAKING FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE...THOUGH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD BE A BIT PESKY WITH CLOUDS AROUND MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SEVERAL CHILLY NIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH MAINTAINING A STEADY APPROACH TO THE STRUCTURE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THERE ARE SEVERAL DISTINCT AXES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN TROUGH...AND EACH SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE CWA IN ABOUT 12 HOUR INTERVALS STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS SERIES IS CURRENTLY MOVING SSW INTO FAR NORTHWEST HUDSON BAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL HUDSON BAY. BOTH ARE CLEARLY APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SAT...SO SEE NO REASON TO QUESTION MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH TIMING. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...AND EASTERN UPPER MI AT 00Z TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT WITH MODEST H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 600MB BEHIND SUNDAYS SYSTEM AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SFC FRONT WILL LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ASSIST PCPN DEVELOPMENT...BUT STABILIZING NW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD CONFINE BEST COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND ALONG LAKE MI. THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO REACH 500 J/KG NORTH OF GRB. MOST OF THIS CAPE WILL BE BELOW THE 0C LEVEL...SO KEPT THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER JUST THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ANY PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY EVENING. A SECOND MID-LEVEL WAVE CLOSER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH AND ACTUALLY KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE DEPLETED OF MOISTURE AS NOTED BY PWATS OF ONLY 0.7 INCHES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. THIS DOES MAKE MIN TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT A LITTLE HARDER TO PIN DOWN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN MID-CLOUD COVER...OPTED NOT TO CHANGE MUCH AND LEAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INTERIOR WEST TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE SHORE. QUITE A COOL TUESDAY WILL FOLLOW UNDER H8 TEMPS OF ONLY 4 TO 7C...COOLEST EAST. MIXING SHOULD REACH THE H8 LEVEL...SO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70F SOUTH CENTRAL. AN EXCELLENT MODIS SST CAPTURE TODAY SHOWS LAKE TEMPS AROUND 50F IN THE NORTHERN OPEN WATERS...AND MID 50S IN THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SO EVEN WITH A NORTH WIND...THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK INTO THE LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LOW PWAT UNDER 0.5 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONTINUED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT HAS PERFORMED WELL ON SIMILAR NIGHTS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. EXPECT 40S FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. SOME TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST COLD SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE UPPER 30S. A THIRD WAVE WILL SKIM THE NE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT WILL BRING ONLY SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL SUCCUMB TO THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE AS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS ON THE BACKSIDE THE SFC RIDGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TROUGH DROPPING SE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW...WHICH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013 EXCEPT FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT IWD EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY CAUSE SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAFS ATTM. ANY -SHRA WL END BY SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...BUT AGAIN...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESUME CONTROL OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 110732 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 232 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013 .DISCUSSION... FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE (LESS HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS) FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDER SPREAD FOG THIS MORNING, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GOES/MODIS SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBS. THUS FAR, NO OB SITES ARE REPORTING DENSE FOG SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. PWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.10-0.20 INCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT HAVE VERY LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE WE SHOULD NOT SEE A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE OF NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY BE GREATER WITH THE LACK OF MORNING HIGH CLOUDS. A RIBBON OF HIGHER VORTICITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EWD THRU TN AND KY. SO WE MAY SEE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH PRODUCE POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AS WELL, INSTIGATING MORE CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES TRACK ESEWD. THE REPETITIVE NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO THE DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE BRISKER MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY WITH THE INCREASED MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED A MORE OR LESS SPLIT ON TEMPS FOR TODAY (ALTHOUGH THAT HINGES ON PRECIP/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT). KMSL HIT 93F YESTERDAY AFTER ALL. WE GRADUALLY LEAN CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS MON-WED GIVEN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDER SPREAD PRECIP. THE EXTENDED FORECAST JUST BECAME LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH LET GO OF THE IDEA WE'LL SEE MUCH OF A DRIER PUSH OF AIR IN OUR AREA THIS WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS TROF IS PROGGED TO MORE OR LESS PARK ITSELF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SE U.S. NEXT WEEKEND. WHETHER THE AXIS SHIFTS JUST FAR ENOUGH SE TO DRY US OUT IS STILL VERY DEBATABLE. AK && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013/ FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING. GENERALLY QUIET WX CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND HSV/MSL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST NOCTURNAL CONCENTRATION OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THAT SAID...THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED -- BUT CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE REGION...WITH TEMPO INCLUDED FOR IFR VSBY BTWN 11/10-13Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INVOF TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN BTWN 11/14-15Z AND WILL CARRY VCTS/TSRA THRU 12/01Z. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SW AT 5-10 KNOTS. 70/DD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 88 69 87 71 / 70 20 70 60 SHOALS 89 70 89 71 / 70 20 70 60 VINEMONT 86 68 85 70 / 70 20 70 60 FAYETTEVILLE 88 68 84 71 / 70 20 70 60 ALBERTVILLE 86 68 86 70 / 70 20 70 60 FORT PAYNE 85 69 85 69 / 70 20 70 60 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 100900 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 500 AM AST SAT AUG 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ELONGATES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH JUST AREAS OF LOCALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT. ALTHOUGH...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT BULK OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK...WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TUTT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BETTER MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT PASSING SHRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...VCSH WRITTEN ON TAF. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT TODAY WHILE TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10/17Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TEMPO NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY...VCTS WRITTEN INSTEAD. SFC WIND TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. && .MARINE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 89 78 / 20 0 0 30 STT 89 81 90 81 / 20 0 0 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 25/23  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 100131 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 931 PM AST FRI AUG 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SECONDARY WEAK TUTT AXIS MOVING FROM THE TROP ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND SAT UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND SAT. WILL LOWER POPS GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND JUST ISOLD SAT AS PW GETS PRETTY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TUTT THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA SUN AND QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD. RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO KEEP BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OVR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST BLENDED TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TEND TO SUGGEST THAT BEST WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT AND MON ESPECIALLY OVER CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST PR. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WED-THU OF WEST SIDE OF ANOTHER TUTT. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND BUT OVERALL WX CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TROP ATLC AWFUL QUIET AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONITE BUT IS A STRETCH TO INCLUDE MVFR IN ANY TAF. SCT SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. WINDS BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT THRU SAT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. && .FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 82 88 80 89 / 20 30 40 50 STT 81 89 81 90 / 30 30 40 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 021856 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 256 PM AST FRI AUG 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL RELOCATE OVER HISPANIOLA BY TUE. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK. SAL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUN. && .DISCUSSION...DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST OVER PR ATTM PER VISUAL OBS...GOES VIS AND MODIS AOD AND DUST PRODUCTS. SAL WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SAT WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO SOAR TO 22C RESULTING IN VERY HOT AND/OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES SAT. TEMPS LIKELY TO REACH MID 90S. ON SUN...SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEARER AS SAL BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY MON...IT APPEARS SAL AND ASSOCIATED INVERSION WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PR. HOWEVER...STILL LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA WED AND GIVE US THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY FASTER THAN YDAY ATTM. GRADUAL DRYING EXPECTED THU THRU FRI. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA LOWERING VSBYS. LVL WINDS ESE 15 TO 25 KT. && .MARINE...DUST HAZE WILL BE THE ONLY THING SIGNIFICANT TODAY AND SAT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEARER SUN. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 78 90 78 89 / 0 0 0 0 STT 82 91 82 91 / 10 0 10 0 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 23/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 011919 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 319 PM AST THU AUG 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND MOVE INTO HISPANIOLA NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK. SAL WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION OVR THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...SAL ALREADY APPROACHING 60W THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON ON CONVENTIONAL VIS IMAGERY AND MODIS AOD PRODUCTS. AREA WILL ALSO BECOME UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. IN ADDITION...AREA IS UNDER DOWNWARD PHASE OF MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND HOT TEMPERATURES OVR THE NEXT 3-6 DAYS. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE ERN ATLC. THIS WAVE HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS EMBBEDED IN VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE. MODELS HAVE TRIED PAST FEW DAYS TO DEVELOP THIS WAVE BUT APPARENTLY THE STRONG SAL LAYER AND DOWNWARD PHASE OF THE MJO WILL BE BIG INHIBITING FACTORS. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA WED NIGH-THU AND BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. && .AVIATION...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCE TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT SHWR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THAN COULD LOWER THE VSBYS. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. DUST HAZE WILL BE MAIN DOMINANT WX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 80 88 82 90 / 10 10 10 10 STT 82 90 82 91 / 20 20 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 11/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 250941 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 541 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE AN INTERMISSION FROM THE TYPICAL LATE JULY SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRES AND ASSOC COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS IS SITTING OVR CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS SINCE MID-JUNE. 09Z READINGS RANGE FROM THE L/M40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...TO THE M50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80...A RESULT OF THE COOL TEMPS AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. BASED ON A MODIS CLOUD THICKNESS OF ARND 800FT...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 2HRS AFTER SUNRISE...OR 12Z. EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DEVELOP SFC LOW OFF THE NC COAST...WHICH WILL PASS WELL EAST OF PA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOC WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH VLY WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH FAIR WX TODAY AND TONIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHRA ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS A BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER...ODDS OF ANY SPOT SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FCST. IR LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS BEGINNING TO BE DRAWN NORTH TOWARD EASTERN PA AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROF. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHILE AREAS TO THE NW ENJOY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GEFS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S THIS AFTN WITH THE COOLEST READINGS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE NERLY FLOW OFF ATLANTIC SHOULD HOLD READINGS IN THE M70S TODAY...A GOOD 10F BLW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TO NR 60F ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. THE COOL TEMPS...CALM WIND AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER SHOULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SFC LOW LOCATED OFF THE NRN-MID ATLC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GET PULLED NWWD ACROSS CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS/DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY INTO THE UPPER/WRN GREAT LAKES. ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES 500MB HEIGHT ANOMS WILL FALL -3SD BELOW THE MEAN FOR LATE JULY ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON DAY 3/SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE OH VLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE SFC LOW WILL BECOME OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LOW...WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLOWING ITS FORWARD ADVANCE AS IT CROSSES THE OH VLY. THE COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE LEAD SHORTWAVES/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND NWD MSTR ADVECTION OF 1-1.5 INCH PWATS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU THE DAY. SPC OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER TROFFING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH WHAT IT OTHERWISE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES LOOK TO SUPPORT SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THIS POINT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND AND THE FROPAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING...BRINGING INCREASING POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVES/FRONTS MEET THE HIER TEMPS AND MOISTURE. BEHIND THE FRONTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND POPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...POSSIBLY MORE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN THESE RECENT DAYS. A RETURN TO SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD COME AS QUICKLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SWRD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA WITH VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS THIS MORNING. THE ONLY POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST PA. 11-3.9UM SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE VALLEYS SURROUNDING BFD SOCKED IN WITH FOG AT 09Z...WHILE BFD REMAIN VFR. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF VSBY DIP AT BFD BTWN 09Z-11Z. AFTER THAT...ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY. HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDS AND A LIGHT NNE WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT-SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 241638 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1238 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013 .UPDATE...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER... AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS TUTT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL PR AND USVI TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 24/22Z. SHRA MAY AFFECT TNCM AND TKPK THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MVFR CONDS. && .MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 18 KNOTS OR LESS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TOMORROW...AS TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM AST WED JUL 24 2013/ SYNOPSIS...DEEP TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT THEN WILL BEGIN TO FILL/WEAKEN SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIGDE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER THIS MORNING. DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL...STILL DRY TODAY UNDER WITH VERY LIMITED IF ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THU-FRI UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT WITH NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN HALF OF PR. SOME DRYING SAT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH THE DRYING. TUTT ALSO WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH LESS INFLUENCE OVR THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS NOW FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WELL AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME TD4. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA MON BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL MON NIGHT AND TUE. WHILE THE SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING ONLY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SURVIVING OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING LOOK TO BE COOL WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR DAYS 3-5. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AS GFS SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR POSSIBLE NOW MAINLY MON NIGHT-TUE TIME FRAME. PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR MORE DETAILS INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TJMZ...FROM 24/16Z TO 24/21Z. LLVL WINDS EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KT. MARINE...SCT TSTMS THU-SAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER TODAY AND BRING SQUALLY WX TO ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20 STT 88 80 89 80 / 10 20 20 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 23/25  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 240816 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 416 AM AST WED JUL 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT THEN WILL BEGIN TO FILL/WEAKEN SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIGDE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL...STILL DRY TODAY UNDER WITH VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR MOIST DEEP CONVECTION THU-FRI UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT WITH NMRS CONVECTION OVER WRN HALF OF PR. SOME DRYING SAT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH THE DRYING. TUTT ALSO WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH LESS INFLUENCE OVR THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS NOW FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WELL AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME TD4. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA MON BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL MON NIGHT AND TUE. WHILE THE SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING ONLY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SURVIVING OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING LOOK TO BE COOL WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR DAYS 3-5. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AS GFS SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT-TUE. PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR MORE DETAILS INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN PR...MAINLY TJMZ...FROM 24/16Z TO 24/21Z. LLVL WINDS EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KT. && .MARINE...SCT TSTMS THU-SAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER TODAY AND BRING SQUALLY WX TO ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20 STT 88 80 89 80 / 10 20 20 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 05/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 231541 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1141 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013 .UPDATE...FORECAST INTACT WITH TRACES OF SHOWERS FORMING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PUERTO RICO. 23/12Z SOUNDING WAS DRY...LESS THAN 33 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 6 AND 13 KFT. STILL LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES...BUT THESE SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER 6 PM AST. && .DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTS THIS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NOW SEEN NEAR 23 WEST. && .AVIATION...VISIBILITIES ARE 8 MILES OR BETTER IN A SAHARAN DUST EPISODE. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOMORROW. LLVL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 20 KT. && .MARINE...SEAS BELOW CAUTION LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAZY... BUT VISIBILITIES ARE ABOVE 7 MILES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013/ SYNOPSIS...SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU TODAY THEN TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE TODAY AND WED. DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET TODAY UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODIS AQUA AOD IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DUST HAZE OVR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER US TODAY. WEAKENING SAL AND LESS HAZY WED. ON THU...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT WITH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI. WX IMPROVES SAT-SUN UNDER WEAKENING TUTT AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 98L WILL REACH THE AREA NEXT MON AND TUE. ALTHOUGH NHC CURRENTLY SHOWS 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS NONE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TC WITH INCREASING HOSTILE CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME EITHER. AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HZ PRESENT DUE TO SAL ENTERING THE REGION TODAY. VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...STARTING AT AROUND 23/16Z. LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED LLVL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS. MARINE...SEAS 3-5 KT AND WINDS 15 KT. DUST HAZE WILL RESTRICT VSBYS BETWEEN 7-9SM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 10 STT 89 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 12/10  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 230754 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 354 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU TODAY THEN TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE TODAY AND WED. && .DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET TODAY UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODIS AQUA AOD IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DUST HAZE OVR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER US TODAY. WEAKENING SAL AND LESS HAZY WED. ON THU...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT WITH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI. WX IMPROVES SAT-SUN UNDER WEAKENING TUTT AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 98L WILL REACH THE AREA NEXT MON AND TUE. ALTHOUGH NHC CURRENTLY SHOWS 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS NONE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TC WITH INCREASING HOSTILE CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME EITHER. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HZ PRESENT DUE TO SAL ENTERING THE REGION TODAY. VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...STARTING AT AROUND 23/16Z. LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED LLVL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 KT AND WINDS 15 KT. DUST HAZE WILL RESTRICT VSBYS BETWEEN 7-9SM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 10 STT 89 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 05/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 200201 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1001 PM AST FRI JUL 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUTT LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON. && .DISCUSSION...QUIET WX OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HAZE AND DUST BASED ON MODIS AOD PRODUCT. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 10 20 20 STT 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 11/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 120008 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 808 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013 .UPDATE...ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EASTERN AREAS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT OTHERWISE LITTLE TO ADJUST. && .DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PR ENDED AS QUICKLY AS THEY STARTED AND REMNANT CLOUDS ARE NOW GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATER AS A BIT OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL EAST AND NORTH OF USVI AND SOME STREAMERS OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS INDICATE WE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT SHOWERS. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND MODELS SHOW SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON FRI. && .AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE SFC FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF BAHAMAS RELAXING AND LIFTING TOWARDS NORTHEAST. RESULTING SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 132 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013/ SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI. TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD TUE. DISCUSSION...MODIS TERRA AOD PRODUCT FROM THE NEXTSAT WEBSITE SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AT ITS PEAK OVR THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEARER SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE OVER 10SM FRI. OVERALL...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON SAT...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT SO I EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO POP UP. MORE NUMEROUS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND AREA BECOMES UNDER FVRBL EAST SIDE OF TUTT. TUTT BEGINS TO FILL MON AND MOVE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION MON. ON TUE AND FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE THAN PAST FEW DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE. AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE SFC FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SCT-NMRS SAT AND SUN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 87 79 87 / 0 0 30 20 STT 79 88 79 86 / 10 10 30 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 05/54  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 111732 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 132 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI. TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD TUE. && .DISCUSSION...MODIS TERRA AOD PRODUCT FROM THE NEXTSAT WEBSITE SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AT ITS PEAK OVR THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEARER SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE OVER 10SM FRI. OVERALL...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON SAT...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT SO I EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO POP UP. MORE NUMEROUS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND AREA BECOMES UNDER FVRBL EAST SIDE OF TUTT. TUTT BEGINS TO FILL MON AND MOVE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION MON. ON TUE AND FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE THAN PAST FEW DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE. && .AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE SFC FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SCT-NMRS SAT AND SUN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 87 79 87 / 10 0 30 20 STT 79 88 79 86 / 10 0 30 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 72/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 261324 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 524 AM AKDT WED JUN 26 2013 .DISCUSSION... THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CERTAIN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 70 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS OBSERVED IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE ECMWF TENDS TO BE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND NAM. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ALL THE MODELS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA WITH CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ALASKAN RANGE TOWARDS MCGRATH THEN NORTHWARD TOWARDS HUSLIA AND CURVE TOWARD UMIAT. LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS AND NAM MODEL FOR THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD BACK INTO CANADA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM THEN BRING THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MOVING TOWARDS MACKENZIE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH IS BRINGS GENERATES SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. AGAIN LEANING TOWARDS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE ECMWF SEEMING TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AND AGGRESSIVE THE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC COAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. NORTH SLOPE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA. IT WAS ANTICIPATED THAT THE WINDS WOULD HAVE SHIFTED BY NOW WITH MORE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BREAKING UP OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LINGER AND MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING LATER THIS MORNING AROUND 18Z. UNTIL THEN THERE IS DENSE FOG ACROSS BARTER ISLAND WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXTENDING FROM BARROW TOWARDS BARTER ISLAND. AGAIN THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON FRIDAY. WEST COAST...YESTERDAYS EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PARTICULARLY EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH NORTHWARD WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UP THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF SHAKTOOLIK AND INTO BUCKLAND. THE HYBRID SATELLITE IR IMAGERY THAT COMBINES GOES IMAGES WITH THE MODIS OR VIIRS POLAR ORBITAL IMAGES SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -45C WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF KOYUK AND -44C WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF HAYCOCK. THUS DECENT THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING FURTHER EAST EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TOWARD GALENA AND HUSLIA. ALONG THE COASTLINE THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG...IN PARTICULAR SOME AREAS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING TO BELOW ONE MILE AT TIME OVER WHALES AND NEAR CAPE ROMANZOFF AND SCAMMONS BAY. THIS FOG SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR...AS MENTIONED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT ON WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SOUNDING AT FAIRBANKS INDICATED 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 18.2C COMPARED TO THE 16.1C YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT SINCE THE RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 76F DEGREES SET IN 1915...WHICH WAS SUSPICIOUS. IN ANY CASE...THE AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY AT 69F DEGREES EVEN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE WARMER AIR GETS PUSHED EAST. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY AS STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. THIS VOLATILE SITUATION IS A RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20 MPH... AND TINDER DRY FUELS. && .HYDROLOGY... NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223- AKZ224. && $$ MAK JUN 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 200939 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 539 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A CHILLY MORNING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC COOL/DRY AIR MASS. 08Z SFC OBS SHOW SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN TO THE L40S. AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AM...EXPECT THE COOL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS TO RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. AS SFC HIGH SLIPS OFF THE NJ COAST...A RETURN SSE FLOW SHOULD DRAW LOW LVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMT OF CU BY AFTN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE LATEST NAM/RUC AND HI-RES WRF DEPICT ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING INVOF THE LAUREL MTNS AND S-CNTRL RIDGES WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE PROBABLY DOESN/T WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FCST...WILL INCREASE POPS TO ARND 10 PCT DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. UNDER PT-MOSUNNY SKIES...TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN WED BASED ON SREF 8H TEMPS WARMING ARND 2C. GIVEN LACK OF ANY LG SCALE FORCING...ANY ISOLD EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG. LIGHTEST WIND AND BEST POTENTIAL OF FOG APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE W MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AN ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW ROTATING NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL MARK THE START OF A VERY WARM/HUMID STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA - WHICH IS ARRIVING ON SCHEDULE WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER ON FRIDAY /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/. APPRECIABLE RNFL WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS LATE-SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH MDL DATA SHOWING AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPPING INVERSION/WARM 700MB TEMPS AND OVERALL LACK OF FORCING SHOULD KEEP AIRMASS CONVECTION TO MINIMAL CVRG. CONSENSUS OF MDL DATA FOCUSES PCPN TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA - ALONG WEST- EAST FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD THRU THE GRT LKS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. OVERALL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL MAX/MINS...LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND SOME FOG IN THE MORNINGS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH THE DAILY CHC FOR AFTN SHOWER OR TSTM. GLOBAL MDL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADING /MOVG WWD/ INTO THE FOUR CORNERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE REGION AROUND DAY 7-8. THE 20/00Z GEFS AND ECENS SHOW A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH 500MB CONFIGURATION HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN 5SM VSBYS AT UNV AND LNS...ALL AIRFIELDS ARE VFR AT 09Z AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS AFTER 10Z WITH SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE NJ COAST SHOULD SUPPLY VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD PM TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM JST AND AOO NORTH THRU UNV. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE W MTNS. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN-MON...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CLIMATE... ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BEGINS AT 104 AM EDT ON FRIDAY JUNE 21ST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 142029 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 .TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM. HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT 12Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH CARRIES MCS ACROSS SRN WI AFT MIDNIGHT. NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER SRN IA/NRN MO ATTM. ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF SRN WI THIS EVENING. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OVER NW IA. MCV FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT SOUTHWEST WI LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. STILL EXPECT STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES DOUBLE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PIVOTING WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN WI LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WL LIKELY CARRY WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS TRI-STATE AREA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO REFIRE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES ACROSS SRN WI IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. BY THIS TIME...DEWPTS WL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S RESULTING IN SFC BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SHEAR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED CLOUDS FROM MORNING MCS CLEAR DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN. .SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS NOW KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL BRING A BLOB OF QPF THROUGH PORTIONS OR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTING INTO THE AREA AT 00Z SUNDAY PER ECMWF/CANADIAN...THOUGH NAM/GFS HAVE IT POINTING FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL MODELS SHOW RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 250MB JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM SHOWING MODEST MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH THE GFS SOUNDINGS MORE MOIST. ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO 900 J/KG WITH DECENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR ON GFS...LESS SO ON ADJUSTED NAM SOUNDINGS. SEVERE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE LINEAR MCS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING...PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND KEPT HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH WHERE EXACTLY ANY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH...SO KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS. NICE DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPES WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST WERE ADDED...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS GIVEN STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. A SEVERE RISK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY IF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER SMALL CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH ONSHORE WINDS EACH DAY KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER. THESE MODELS THEN DIFFER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WARMER SOLUTION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE REGION NORTHEAST OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. USED CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AND POPS. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION AFFECTING KMSN AROUND AND AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ISOLD CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT ERN TAF SITES EARLY SAT. CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR FOR A TIME SAT MRNG AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER SAT AFTN AND EVE. && .MARINE... SOME CONCERN REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME AND INCREASING SFC DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. LATEST CLOSEUP SEA SURFACE MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. OTHERWISE NO PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SRN ZONES SAT INTO SAT EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 090937 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 537 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GRT LKS ARND NEXT THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AM...THE RESULT OF A CALM WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC RH SUGGESTS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 12Z. WAA DEVELOPING ON WEST SIDE OF RETREATING RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OHIO AND SW PA AT 09Z. THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT...WHICH IS PICKING UP THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LYR OF MOISTURE NR 700MB...SUGGESTS THIS BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AM. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS. 8H TEMPS SURGING TO NR 15C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMS UNDER PTSUNNY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST. VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MDL GUIDANCE THRU LATE MONDAY...ALL OF WHICH TRACK UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET/PWATS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT. HAVE PLAYED DOWN THE CHC OF THUNDER MONDAY...AS OVERCAST SKIES AND ONGOING RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. 00Z GEFS MEAN CAPES AOB 500 J/KG. A BLEND OF OPER AND ENSEMBLE QPF SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL MDL RUNS PRODUCE LOCAL AMTS ARND 2 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PWATS 2-3SD ABV NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA MON EVENING...CAUSING HEAVY SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...SCT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSS TSRA SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...AS 5H TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU. MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ARND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NORMAL TIMING ISSUES REMAIN...BULK OF MDLS TRACK SFC LOW SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY...SO HAVE RAMPED UP THE CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE MDL DATA TO SUPPORT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS ARRIVING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LIGHT WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES UNDER SFC RIDGE IS RESULTING IN EARLY AM FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES... MAINLY ACROSS NW PA WHERE PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSS THROUGH 13Z. WAA ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OHIO AND SW PA AT 06Z...AND SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA BEFORE DAWN. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION... RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS...BUT HELD MENTION TO VCSH IN TAFS FOR THAT AREA DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS CENTRAL PA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS. OUTLOOK... SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY IN THE SW. SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. WED-THU...SCT SHOWERS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 080829 CCA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 425 AM AST SAT JUN 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. && .DISCUSSION...TUTT AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE MON PASSAGE AND AS TUTT DEEPENS AND RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVR PR LATER TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EXPLOSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NEXT IS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PR ON SUN...BULK OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PR BEING ON DRY SIDE. I WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS SUN. MOIST TROPICAL AIR THEN ENVELOPS THE AREA MON AND TUE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NMRS CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUE DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. TUTT WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WED WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING IN FROM THE EAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKES OVER THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST. MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALTHOUGH AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF IT THIS FAR OUT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVR THE TROP ATLC CURRENTLY SEEN ON CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND PER HIGH VALUES OF AOD OVR THE ERN ATLC SEEN ON MODIS TERRA AND AQUA FROM YESTERDAY. THEN ANOTHER SIG SAL EPISODE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI NIGHT - SAT WITH STRONG WARMING AT H85 AND VERY DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL RH'S. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TIL ABOUT 08/16Z WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN PR AND MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TO/AROUND TJMZ. WINDS ARE EAST 10 TO 15 KT AND 20 KTS BTWN 0 AND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 30 30 30 STT 86 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 50 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 080820 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST SAT JUN 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. && .DISCUSSION...TUTT AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE MON PASSAGE AND AS TUTT DEEPENS AND RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVR PR LATER TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EXPLOSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NEXT IS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PR ON SUN...BULK OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PR BEING ON DRY SIDE. I WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS SUN. MOIST TROPICAL AIR THEN ENVELOPS THE AREA MON AND THU WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NMRS CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUE DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. TUTT WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WED WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING IN FROM THE EAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKES OVER THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALTHOUGH AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF IT THIS FAR OUT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVR THE TROP ATLC CURRENTLY SEEN ON CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND PER HIGH VALUES OF AOD OFF OF AFRICA ON MODIS TERRA AND AQUA FROM YESTERDAY. THEN ANOTHER SIG SAL EPISODE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI NIGHT - SAT WITH STRONG WARMING AT H85 AND VERY DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL RH'S. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TIL ABOUT 08/16Z WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN PR AND MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TO/AROUND TJMZ. WINDS ARE EAST 10 TO 15 KT AND 20 KTS BTWN 0 AND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 30 30 30 STT 86 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 50 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 071547 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1147 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013 .UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...DEPICTED A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50 WEST. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD PASSING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37 WEST THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY INDUCING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. && .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013/ SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN. DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN ON HI-RES MODIS LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THEN EVOLVES INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH HISPANIOLA. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER TPW AIR EAST OF 60W AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WILL INCH CLOSER TO OUR AREA SAT AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH TUTT TO YIELD SCT-NMRS STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON. GFS 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT OVR PR. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA SUN AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS NOW LOCATED ALONG 52W. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD NW SUN GIVEN DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN WITH DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR ENVELOPING THE AREA MON AND TUE. AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTERACTS WITH DEEP TUTT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT NMRS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WED-THU AS TUTT FILLS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST FOR NEXT FRI FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A TRADE WIND SURGE AND ANOTHER SIG EPISODE OF SAL. AVIATION...-SHRA WERE OBSERVED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 07/10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT. MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20 STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 72/71  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 070819 CCA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 417 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN. && .DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN ON HI-RES MODIS LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THEN EVOLVES INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH HISPANIOLA. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER TPW AIR EAST OF 60W AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WILL INCH CLOSER TO OUR AREA SAT AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH TUTT TO YIELD SCT-NMRS STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON. GFS 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT OVR PR. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA SUN AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS NOW LOCATED ALONG 52W. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD NW SUN GIVEN DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN WITH DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR ENVELOPING THE AREA MON AND TUE. AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTERACTS WITH DEEP TUTT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT NMRS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WED-THU AS TUTT FILLS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST FOR NEXT FRI FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A TRADE WIND SURGE AND ANOTHER SIG EPISODE OF SAL. && .AVIATION...-SHRA WERE OBSERVED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 07/10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20 STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 070811 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 411 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN. && .DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN HI-RES MODIS LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THEN EVOLVES INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH HISPANIOLA. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER TPW AIR EAST OF 60W AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WILL INCH CLOSER TO OUR AREA SAT AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH TUTT TO YIELD SCT-NMRS STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON. GFS 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT OVR PR. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA SUN AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS NOW LOCATED ALONG 52W. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD NW SUN GIVEN DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN WITH DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR ENVELOPING THE AREA MON AND TUE. AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTERACTS WITH DEEP TUTT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT NMRS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WED-THU AS TUTT FILLS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST FOR NEXT FRI FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A TRADE WIND SURGE AND ANOTHER SIG EPISODE OF SAL. && .AVIATION...-SHRA WERE OBSERVED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 07/10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20 STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 060830 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 430 AM AST THU JUN 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP TUTT. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN. && .DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH SUN. AQUA MODIS AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE THICKEST DUST HAZE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA WITH CLEARER AIR EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE SOME HAZE WILL STILL LINGER TODAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME LESS HAZY AND CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W IS STRUGGLING WITH LOW-MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER LOW CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SEEN EMANATING FROM ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES. MODELS SHOW BULK OF MOISTURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN WITH CURRENT AIR MASS NOT MODIFYING COMPLETELY UNTIL MON. BY THEN...UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A VERY DEEP TUTT LOW AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS TO INTERACT FAVORABLY AND GREATLY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE. TUTT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MID NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST TO REACH THE AREA THU ACCORDING TO THE 00Z ECMWF. OVERALL...IT APPEARS WILL SEE ENHANCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION NEXT WEEK DUE TO FAVORABLE POSITION OF TUTT. THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AFTER AROUND 06/17Z. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SAHARAN DUST MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL BE FM E AT 10-15 KT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SOME HAZE BUT SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 88 77 / 20 0 10 20 STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 10 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 050815 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 415 AM AST WED JUN 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE ERN CARIB WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP TUTT OVR THE WEEKEND WHILE IT SLOWLY RETROGRADES. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. && .DISCUSSION...MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY IS IMPRESSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FOR SO EARLY IN THE SUMMER BRINGING FIRST SIG DUST HAZE EVENT OF THE YEAR. MODIS AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY AND NRL AEROSOL LOOPER SHOW HAZY SKIES TODAY BUT BECOMING CLEARER AFTER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SAT. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 41.5W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SFC LOW PRES AND HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION AT THE H7 WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY SIG AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE WERE IN AUG I WOULD BE EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE BUT IT IS JUNE AND THE WAVE IS FORECAT TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL BRING STRONG CONVECTION TO OUR AREA SUN AS IT INTERACTS FAVORABLY ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT FCST TO BE LOCATED OVR HISPANIOLA. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES. VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 05/17Z FOR TJMZ AND 05/19Z FOR TJBQ. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL REMAIN FM THE SE AT 15-20 KT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. HAZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 6-8SM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 0 STT 87 78 88 78 / 20 20 20 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 030157 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 957 PM AST SUN JUN 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR 35N 67W WILL MAINTAIN A TROF INTO HISPANIOLA AND PR THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO IMPACT THE AREA MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MODIS AOD PRODUCT...CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY AT SUNSET INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SAL LAYER OVR THE SRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PR MON WITH DUST HAZE GREATLY INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER WRN PR. HOWEVER...SQUALLS AND CONVECTIVE LINES CAN BE EXPECTED TO START ENTERING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND EASTERN PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 57W. THIS SQUALLY WX IS SUGGESTED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT FROM LATEST WRF-NMM. BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE ADVECTION IS FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT. MODELS CONITNUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AND VORTICITY FIELDS SPLITTING AS WAVE ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. I CONTINUE TO BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR TUE. WHAT LOOKS CERTAIN IS A DENSE LAYER OF CIRRUS KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TUE. BEHIND WAVE...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAND DUST HAZE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH HOT HAZY CONDITIONS. AREA WILL BECOME UNDER STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OF BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION...SOME DUST HAZE TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITIES. TSTMS AND SQUALLS WILL START APPROACHING FROM THE EAST TOMORROW AND IMPACT LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI AND JSJ FROM MIDDAY ON. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. SQUALLS ARE LIKELY OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND WATERS SURROUNDING ERN PR AND THE USVI WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT AND REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 87 77 87 / 10 40 70 70 STT 78 87 78 88 / 10 50 60 60 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 64/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 021126 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 426 AM PDT SUN JUN 2 2013 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:31 AM PDT SUNDAY...COOLING TREND IS UNDERWAY WITH STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COAST AND NOW STARTING TO PUSH A FEW MILES INLAND. STILL A ROBUST 8.5 MB NORTHERLY GRADIENT BUT THE ONSHORE IS 3.1 MB FROM SFO-SAC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN THE COAST BETWEEN SAN FRANCISCO AND 130W. NAM MODEL VORTICITY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS DEPICT THESE FIELDS AS WELL WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER DEPTH. THIS IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER AND SAN CARLOS SODAR WITH THE INVERSION LAYER INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WONT COOL TOO MUCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE MOST DRAMATIC COOLING ABOUT 10-20 MILES INLAND. THEN TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING WELL INLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS WILL FEEL COOLING ON MONDAY AS PLACES LIKE CONCORD AND LIVERMORE STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AFTER A WEEKEND OF TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAK 500 MB CIRCULATION OFF THE CENTRAL COAST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDS OR POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SUNNY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE 60S COAST...70S INSIDE THE BAY AND 80S INLAND. BIG WEATHER STORY WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN TURN TO WARMING TREND BY FRIDAY. MODEL RUNS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING A 590-593 DM HIGH OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO GET PRETTY OUT OF HAND FROM 25-30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT OVER HEAD SO GRADIENTS BECOME NEUTRAL BUT WITH THE RIDGE SO STRONG THE HEAT SHOULD BUILD PRETTY CLOSE TO THE COAST. STILL ALMOST A WEEK OUT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY OUTLOOKS BUT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:24 AM PDT SUNDAY...COMPARE TO 24 HOURS AGO...WIDESPREAD STRATUS BLANKETS THE COASTLINE. SODARS/PROFILERS PUT THE INVERSION AROUND 1000-1500 FEET LATEST MODIS- VIIRS IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS A FINGER OF STRATUS SLIDING THROUGH THE GAP JUST NORTH OF KSFO. FARTHER SOUTH...STRATUS HAS MADE IT INTO MONTEREY MORE EASILY. THAT BEING SAID...TOUGH CALL FOR SF BAY REGARDING STRATUS THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR POSS CIGS DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MRY BAY CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN POSSIBLE CLEARING. CIGS RETURN EVERYWHERE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER DEFINED MARINE LAYER. VICINITY OF KSFO...PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE VFR...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 16Z FOR CIGS UNDER 1K FEET. VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...AS OF NOW IT APPEAR THAT CIGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AROUND SFO. A FEW CIGS MAY IMPACT NORTH END OF APPROACH. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND MONTEREY BAY THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS RETURN EARLY TONIGHT. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION/MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 020050 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 850 PM AST SAT JUN 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR NEAR 33N 69W WILL SUPPORT A TROF INTO HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. && .DISCUSSION...COMPARISON OF VIS IMAGERY FROM THREE DIFFERENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES (GOES-14, GOES-12 SOUTH AMERICA AND METEOSAT) CONFIRMED A LAYER OF DUST HAZE WAS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AT SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOWED HIGHER AEROSOL CONCENTRATIONS JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. BLENDED TPW ALSO SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY DRYER AIR NOW OVER THE USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT DUST HAZE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE OVER OUR SKIES. ALSO EXPECT TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TO BE GREATLY REDUCED FROM TODAY SO WILL ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AS UPPER TROF AXIS PULLS EAST AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT SIDE PRECEDING TROPICAL WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W THIS EVENING WILL ENTER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL START WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SPLITTING OF MOISTURE FIELD WILL OCCUR WITH THIS WAVE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE GOING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS ACTUALLY MON NIGHT WITH DRYING EXPECTED OVER THE USVI BY TUE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS WAVE...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WILL FOLLOW ACCORDING TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER WITH SIG IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. REST OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE UNDER MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIR LAYER. TIME SERIES PLOT OF 950...850...700 MB TEMPS AND H1000-850 THICKNESSES ALL SHOW A SHARP RISE STARTING MON AND PEAKING ON WED WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S. OVERALL...HAZY...HOT BUT DRY AFTER TUE UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. SQUALLY WX WITH NMRS TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY MON NIGHT. SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 78 87 78 86 / 10 10 20 20 STT 78 88 79 88 / 10 10 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 13/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 010126 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 926 PM AST FRI MAY 31 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N 70W WILL SUPPORT A TROF INTO THE CARIB THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROF WILL THEN FILL AND MERGE WITH POLAR TROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. && .DISCUSSION...BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A A DECREASE IN TSTM AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ENHANCE TSTM INTENSITY. THEN AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT SIDE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 46W. WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN TPW VALUES WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SO RIGHT NOW NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE WEST MID NEXT WEEK LEADING TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AS SEEN ON MODIS ATLC AOD...MODIS AND VIIRS DUST PRODUCTS OVER THE ERN ATLC OCEAN ON THE NRL MRY WEBSITE WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ACCORDING TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FIRST SIG SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WITH SIG IMPACTS IN AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TISX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .CLIMATE...MAY 2013 WILL END AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 76 87 76 87 / 10 10 10 10 STT 78 88 78 89 / 0 0 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 13/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 240240 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 940 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 .UPDATE... WITH THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPERATURES COOLED WELL INLAND AND WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TO PREVENT FROST IN THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA METRO AREAS. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKE FALL WITH A WARM LAKE...SO THE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS INLAND WILL GIVE MUCH PROTECTION. MODIS LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 41. TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 40 IN THE KETTLE MORAINE AREA. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY IFR/LIFR GROUND FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/ VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG. BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER WRN CONUS. GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT. AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051- 052-058>060-064-065-070. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ UPDATE...HENTZ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 212155 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 155 PM AKDT TUE MAY 21 2013 .DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN INTO A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN REBUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY. THIS TREND IS INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. GFS/ECMWF SIMILAR ON THE FORECAST POSITION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A 998 MB LOW JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FILLING TO AROUND 1002 MB. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE TWO LOW CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE INTO A SINGLE 1008 MB CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LIKELY TO EXCEED 70 DEGREES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MANY PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR...LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOME SITES WILL HAVE MIN RH BELOW 20 PERCENT. EASTERN INTERIOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT FORT YUKON AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWNSTREAM TO TANANA AS BREAKUP ON THE YUKON RIVER PROGRESSES. A NASA/GSFC RAPID RESPONSE MODIS IMAGE TAKEN MAY 20 SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE FLOODED AREA ON THE YUKON RIVER EXTENDING FROM UPSTREAM OF THE ICE JAM ALMOST TO CIRCLE. AT ITS WIDEST POINT...ABOUT 12 TO 20 MILES UPSTREAM FROM FORT YUKON...THE FLOODED AREA APPEARS TO BE AS MUCH AS 7 OR 8 MILES WIDE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ220. FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ221. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ RF MAY 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 201252 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 752 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013 .DISCUSSION... MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING LIFTING/MIXING QUICKLY. EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SSE-SE. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG WAS REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH THE WIND AND LOOKING AT MODIS FROM YESTERDAY AND VIS THIS MORNING THINK THAT SMOKE FROM YUCATAN FIRES MAY HAMPER VISIBILITIES TODAY AND TOMORROW. WON'T ADD ANY AS TEMPO CONDITIONS YET BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/ DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS- OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF BRISK WINDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS A STOUT CAP WILL BE PRESENT AROUND 850MB. AMDAR SOUNDING FOR KHOU REVEALED 800MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM NEW MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL PROBABLY WIN OUT SOUTH OF IH-10. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVES OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE NORTH OF IH-10 WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BREAK THE CAP AT KCLL WHILE HOLDING ON TO IT AT KIAH AND OTHER SOUTHWARD SITES. AT KCLL CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH LI'S OF -8. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HOLDS ONTO THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA. HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS EVENT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE HOT AND HUMID. 23 MARINE... SOUTHEAST WINDS A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 12-18 KNOTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSITS THE STATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES BEYOND WEDNESDAY THOUGH LIGHTER AND MAY EVEN BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT SATURDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 73 90 71 88 / 10 10 30 40 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 90 75 90 73 88 / 10 10 20 30 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 73 80 74 81 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...23  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 161009 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 509 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013 .DISCUSSION... MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE TN VALLEY OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPR LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES JUST WEST OF THE DFW METRO YESTERDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK RATHER SMALL FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR ANOTHER TROUGH AND PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW BELOW. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN BELT OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN/CONUS BORDER...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GOM. IN BETWEEN...A CLOSED UPR-LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWRD ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER REGION...WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR OK CITY. STANDARD WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A REGION OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WHICH WAS CORROBORATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND OTHER MULTI-SPECTRAL MODIS/VIIRS AND RGB IMAGERY. REGIONAL RADARS AT 330 AM CDT SHOWED HEAVIER CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF AR AND TX...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED IN THE MEMPHIS METRO AND ALONG A NARROW LINE STRETCHING FROM THE MISS DELTA INTO SW ALABAMA. THESE SHOWERS...IN ASSOC/WITH AN AREA OF SHEARED UPR VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWRD THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE REACHING THE SFC...SOME OF THE LIGHTER SHOWERS ALOFT LIKELY ARE NOT REACHING THE SFC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY MID-LAYER. THIS FEATURE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPR LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED W-E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH WEAK UPR VORT MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PATTERN WITH THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS TOO CHAOTIC TO DISCERN A COHERENT FEATURE...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT LIFT ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL BE PRESENT BUT LIKELY WEAK. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DIFFLUENT IN NATURE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE CLEARING AND INSOLATION MAY BE REALIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND PRESENT A HIGHER THREAT OF SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ATTM GIVEN THE OTHER COMPETING FACTORS. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT UPR LOW IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL KEEP A STEADY ADVANCE TO THE EAST. BY LATER TONIGHT...THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPR LOW WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. CONTINUING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE MID-MISS VALLEY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW. ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW WILL BE SW-W...CONVECTION MAY BE PARTIALLY COLD-POOL DRIVEN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT INCREASING IN OUR AREA TONIGHT. POPS WERE RAISED A LITTLE MAINLY IN THE NW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WERE KEPT AT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL A CLEARER PICTURE EMERGES. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK RATHER SMALL FOR NOW WITH VERY LOW SHEAR AND MARGINAL CAPE. ON FRIDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES ALBEIT UNDER A DENSER CLOUD CANOPY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC LIFT AVAILABLE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS ALONG THE SE FLANK OF THE UPR LOW. WHILE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION IS MORE LIKELY TO OUR WEST OVER THE MID- MISS VALLEY OR THE WESTERN TN VALLEY...STORMS MAY MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE EWRD INTO PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCTD STRONG STORMS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT POPS FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM UPR-WAVE MOVES SWRD INTO THE REGION...PERHAPS MERGING WITH THE PRE-EXISTING UPR TROUGH. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHEST ON THIS DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER THE OBVIOUS CAVEAT. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG SUGGEST STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD STILL OCCUR. THE EFFECTS OF THE COMBINED UPR-LVL SYSTEMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE EAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS INTRODUCED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. FOR MON-TUES...A RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY IN THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. GENERALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT FOR THE REGION. CURRENTLY...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON MON AND TUES. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TYPICAL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION BY ABOUT WED. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS. KDW && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/ FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN AS MORE HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. SCT/ISOL -RA MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS AL/TN BTWN 14-18Z BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLT CATEGORIES. AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR W PUSHES CLOSER LATE IN THE PERIOD...CIGS SHOULD START TO DROP BUT CAT DROPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z TOMORROW. CCC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 84 65 82 67 / 20 30 50 40 SHOALS 85 62 79 68 / 20 30 50 40 VINEMONT 82 62 81 67 / 20 20 40 40 FAYETTEVILLE 82 59 81 65 / 20 30 50 40 ALBERTVILLE 82 63 81 66 / 20 20 40 40 FORT PAYNE 83 59 80 63 / 20 20 40 40 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 070819 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 419 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW W-E ORIENTED UPR RDG STRETCHING ALONG THE US/CNDN BORDER TO THE N OF CLOSED UPR LOWS OVER THE SE CONUS AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE CA COAST. AT THE SFC... HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER LK SUP...AND WINDS ARE NEAR CALM UNDER SLACK PRES GRADIENT. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.15 INCH OR 27 PCT OF NORMAL...QUIET WX DOMINATES THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL...BUT OTRW SKIES ARE CLR. DRY HI PRES IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE UPR LKS TDAY/TNGT...SO QUIET WX/MOCLR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE. MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/HOW LO MIN RH WL FALL THIS AFTN. ANY SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE INTERIOR W EARLY THIS MRNG WL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE. WITH H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 10-11C RANGE...ABOUT THE SAME OR 1C HIER THAN YDAY...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON MON. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE H925 FLOW IS FCST TO BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE S-SE THAN YDAY AND UP TO 10 KTS WITH HI CENTER SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E. AS A RESULT...LK MODERATION OFF LK SUP SHOULD NOT PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS ON MON. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODERATION OFF LK MI WL BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. AWAY FM LK COOLING/ MOISTENING...THE DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW SFC DEWPTS TO FALL TO ARND 30 THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN MIN RH ARND 20 PCT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 10 MPH...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. CONTINUED AIRMASS MODERATION...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER S WIND...AND THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST TO RISE TO NEAR 0.75 INCH BY 12Z WED...WL CONSPIRE TO KEEP MIN TEMPS TNGT HIER THAN THIS MRNG. THE DIFFERENCE SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE INCOMING MOISTER AIR. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FROM 24HRS AGO. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER WILL BEGIN TO LOOSEN IT/S GRIP ON THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FROM THE DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE MOISTURE BEING FOCUSED ABOVE 6-7KFT. WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE VERY LOW LEVELS ARE TRYING TO OVER MOISTEN THE SURFACE...WHICH INCREASES THE SFC BASED CAPE TOWARDS 500-750 J/KG. LOOKING AT MLCAPE...THAT DRY AIR CUTS BACK CAPE VALUES TO 50-250 J/KG AND WITH THE OTHER NEGATIVE VALUES...WILL CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHTS OVER THE FAR WEST. ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS BASED OFF DRIER AIR HOLDING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AND BE THE STRONGEST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LAKE BREEZES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PUSHING EAST FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE COLD FRONT...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST...WITH LOW END LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ UNLESS THE SHORTWAVE IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WHICH ALLOW FOR GREATER INTERACTION BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /850MB TEMPS AROUND 2-4C/ WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...WOULD EXPECT A NICE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD TURN OVER TO SNOW AND WILL CONTINUE THAT MENTION. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...DUE TO THE SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-8.5 C/KM. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT AND P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE DEPENDS ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER...BUT WITH THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND INVERTED V LOOK TO THE SOUNDING...OPTED TO UTILIZE THE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHT FOR RAIN/SNOW LINE. THIS PLACES A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTH AND RAIN OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT MAY END UP BEING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN TOWARDS RAW MODEL DATA...SINCE MOS TREND TOWARDS NORMAL IS BIASING THE COLD TEMPS. THIS PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...25-30KTS...IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A MID MAY DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. COULD EVEN BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST. DECENT SFC-775MB DELTA-T VALUES...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH AN INVERTED V LOOK BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND PULL THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND A DRY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S OVER THE EAST AND MID 40S OVER THE WEST DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SWEEP A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRUSH THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. SOME FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BRIEF IFR COULD OCCUR AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS. BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20-30KTS ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 HYDROLOGY CONCERNS REMAIN FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW PACK OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY YESTERDAY STILL SHOWS SNOW REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE LATEST SNOW DEPTH OBSERVATIONS /FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING AROUND 8AM/ STILL HAVE AROUND 3IN AT IRONWOOD...AND 7IN AT ATLANTIC MINE. A FEW POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. DID SEE RISES AT SOME OF THE SITES OVER THE WEST /ESPECIALLY TRRM4 AND BESM4/ WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY. BUT THE TRAP ROCK RIVER LEVELED OFF MUCH FASTER OVERNIGHT AND THAT MAY BE A SIGN OF THE LACK OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT LEFT IN THE BASIN. WITH THE SOLID RISE YESTERDAY OF BESM4 AND DECENT SNOW COVER...WOULD THINK IT WOULD MAKE ANOTHER PUSH TODAY. AT THIS TIME...AN EDUCATED GUESS WOULD PUT IT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE THE LAST MAJOR PUSH. THE ONGOING FLOODING ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AROUND WITCH LAKE WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE SNOW WATER MAKES IT OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MARQUETTE COUNTY. THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND CHASSELL CONTINUES TO HOVER BETWEEN ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVELS AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE BASED ON THE STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE STURGEON RIVER AT SIDNAW UPSTREAM. OTHERWISE...THE REST RIVER LEVELS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 060756 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 356 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG STRETCHING FM THE NE CONUS W INTO THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE N OF CUTOFF LO OVER THE SE CONUS. VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS... WHICH SHOW A PWAT ARND 0.25 INCH OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...DOMINATES THE CWA. SO SKIES ARE MOCLR EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS. SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED NEAR WRN LK SUP...AND SOME LO CLDS/FOG ARE APRNT OVER WRN LK SUP NEAR THE W COAST OF UPR MI CLOSER TO MOISTER AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. DESPITE THE LGT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 30 CLOSER TO THIS MSTR...NO FOG HAS YET FORMED OVER WRN UPR MI AS OF FCST ISSUANCE. TODAY/TNGT...UPR RDG IS FCST TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU THIS TIME WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING NEARLY STNRY OVER LK SUP. WITH DRY AIRMASS ALSO LINGERING...THE ONLY MAJOR CONCERNS ARE TEMPS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MRNG/TNGT...AND POTENTIAL LOW RH THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF CLOSER TO CORE OF DRY AIRMASS. BEST CHC FOR FOG EARLY THIS MRNG WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR W...CLOSER TO AREA OF FOG/ LO CLD STRETCHING FM THE W SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN TOWARD IWD/ASX. ANY FOG THAT DOES DVLP SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 9-10C AGAIN TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND W NEAR LK SUP...WHERE A WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW THAN YDAY WL LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF LK MODERATION. SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE IN THIS AREA MIGHT HAVE A HARD TIME TOPPING 50...MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL AND W WL BE WARMER THAN YDAY. MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS UP TO 70-75 OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LOCAL LK BREEZE MODERATION. PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE NAM FCST SDNGS GIVEN BONE DRY GRB/APX RAOBS. DEEP MIXING ON THESE FCST SDNGS SUG DEWPTS WL MIX OUT AS LO AS 30 TO 35 OVER THE INTERIOR DURING PEAK HEATING...LOWERING MIN RH AS LO AS 20-25 PCT. THE BEST CHC FOR THE LOWER DEWPTS WL BE OVER THE E WHERE THE GROUND IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN OVER THE W/CENTRAL. FORTUNATELY WINDS WL BE LGT...SO NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. FOR TNGT...WITH LGT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERING...EXPECT A HEALTHY DROP OF TEMP. PREFER TO TEND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...BUT MODERATING AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS TNGT WL NOT BE AS CHILLY AS EARLY THIS MRNG. SINCE FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM THIS MRNG AND THE LLVLS TNGT WL LIKELY TO BE AS DRY...OPTED TO REMOVE FOG FM THE FCST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS DUAL CUTOFF LOWS /ONE OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE OTHER NEAR CALIFORNIA/ KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM JET RUNNING WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP TO THE NORTH FOR THE TIME BEING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL HINTS OF SOME HIGH-BASED DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WITH THE DEEP MIXING...EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY OVER THE CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXCEPT WHERE LAKE BREEZES KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MAY KEEP THE WEST HALF A LITTLE COOLER. DID TREND DEWPOINTS DOWN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST BASED OFF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE GOOD MIXING THOSE DAYS...RH VALUES FELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR TUESDAY. THAT IDEA MATCHES MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE MODELS AND TRENDED THAT DIRECTION. THE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PRODUCING A LOW THAT SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST IMPACT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE MOISTURE AND SMALL CLOSED PIECE OF ENERGY THAT TRIES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THIS INTERACTION AND PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS POP/QPF DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE SLIGHTS OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND LEAD TO DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...AS THE COLDEST AIR DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS. WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS FOR THIS WAVE...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERNS THE EAST COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL BUT THEN WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA HAS LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT DESPITE DECENT ANTECEDENT MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE SNOWMELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION. WHILE FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE RESTRICTED BELOW MVFR...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY RESULT CLOSER TO FOG ALREADY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING THE THREE TAF SITES UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 0Z TUESDAY. LATEST NAM ON BUFKIT SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING AT KCMX AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY STAYING BELOW 25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SETUP OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. THEN...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT BUT ONLY 10-20KT WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS...UNTIL THE REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY YESTERDAY STILL SHOWS SNOW REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DID SEE RISES AT SOME OF THE SITES OVER THE WEST /ESPECIALLY TRRM4/ WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE REMAINING SNOW IS GONE. AT THIS TIME...WOULD THINK TRRM4 WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR REACHING ADVISORY OR FLOOD STAGE FROM THIS ADDITIONAL MELT. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FLOODING ON THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND CHASSELL...THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AROUND WITCH LAKE...AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REST RIVER LEVELS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...RJT/KC MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 050804 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 404 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG STRETCHING FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE N OF CLOSED LO OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER WX THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH THE 00Z H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION AS HI AS 24C/PWAT JUST 0.24 INCH OR 49 PCT OF NORMAL AT APX. BUT THERE IS STILL A RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR SOME -SHRA EXTENDING NNWWD FM THE CLOSED LO TO THE S INTO MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO. THE 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE AND 00Z PWAT OF 0.83 INCH...188 PCT OF NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS OVER THE E...THAT AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE APX RAOB. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C...MAX TEMPS YDAY REACHED THE 70S OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA WHERE THE DRY AIR ALLOWED FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND LAKE COOLING WAS ABSENT IN THE NLY FLOW S OF HI PRES CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR ALF HAS PUSHED INTO THE WRN CWA PER THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SDNGS...ENUF LLVL MSTR LINGERS THERE UNDER SHARP INVRN AT H9 TO SUPPORT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE WRN CWA FM THE KEWEENAW THRU GOGEBIC COUNTY. SINCE THE 00Z YPL RAOB SHOWS SOME MSTR BTWN H9-825 EVEN CLOSE TO THE ONTARIO HI CENTER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD EXTENDING WELL N OF LK SUP TO THE HI PRES RDG AXIS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LO CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. POTENTIAL FOR LOW RH OVER THE E/IMPACT ON FIRE WX CONCERNS THIS AFTN IS THE FOCUS THERE. TODAY...UPR RDG AXIS/MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN DOMINANT. ALTHOUGH SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY S TOWARD LK SUP...THE NNW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS HI...ALBEIT LGT...WL LIKELY ACT TO HOLD LO CLDS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DESPITE THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING THAT WOULD NORMALLY MIX OUT THIS LLVL MSTR. IN FACT...COOL ADVECTION OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL TEND TO OFFSET THE DIURNAL HEATING AND MAINTAIN A LLVL INVRN/POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT LO CLDS IN THIS AREA AS HI TEMPS HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE SHORE. OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...A LGT S FLOW WL PREVAIL ARND SFC HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE MODERATION NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY/ LK MI WITH A LK BREEZE...H85 TEMPS NEAR 10C/MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM/ GFS FCST SDNGS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT HI TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AWAY FM THE LK COOLING. WITH SFC DEWPTS MIXING OUT TOWARD 35 OVER THE INTERIOR...MIN RH WL LIKELY FALL AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS WL BE LGT...SO NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. TONIGHT...WITH HI PRES FCST TO SHIFT OVHD AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...FALLING MOST SHARPLY OVER THE E AND SCENTRAL...WHERE MUCH DRIER AIR /PWAT NEAR 0.5 INCH/ WL LINGER. SINCE MORE LLVL MSTR WL BE LINGERNING OVER THE W/NCENTRAL... RETAINED A MENTION OF FOG IN THIS AREA OVERNGT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN CANADA...A QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DUE TO A POCKET OF 800-750MB MOISTURE. A FEW MODELS HINT AT SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH THE HIGH BASES AND LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 150 J/KG...THINK IT WILL JUST BE CU. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MIXING...TO 800-775MB...AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LAKE BREEZES ON BOTH DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. DID TRY TO MIX OUT DEWPOINTS A LITTLE MORE THAN THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED BASED OFF WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. FORTUNATELY...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH...IT WILL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST EVEN THOUGH FFMC VALUES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE OR BECOMING HIGH. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND INTERIOR WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW LEVEL COOLING BY LINGERING SNOW COVER. FARTHER EAST...DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL. OVER THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. BUT DEWPOINTS AREN/T EXTREMELY HIGH AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IT WON/T GET MUCH HELP FROM THE LAND. WITH THAT BEING SAID...IF IT DOES DEVELOP...THE LIGHT WINDS WOULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND IT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD AT THIS POINT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND PRODUCES A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM KEEP THE MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE 18Z GFS PULLS IT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF IDEA. BASED ON THE EXISTING DRY AIR MASS AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WOULD TEND TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER IDEA AND WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHTS OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. BUT AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CONCERN FOR THAT PERIOD UNLESS THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WED INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT STILL NORMAL OR VERY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY WITH LIFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...AND RESIDES OVER THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE AFTN. LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL LEAD TO LAKE BREEZES AT ALL SITES. LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR LGT FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY STAYING BELOW 25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SETUP OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. THEN...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT BUT ONLY 10-20KT WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH THE WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS...UNTIL THE REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY TODAY STILL SHOWS SNOW REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FARTHER WEST...THE 10 PLUS INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF RISING RIVER LEVELS IN PLACE. DID SEE RISES AT SOME OF THE SITES OVER THE WEST /RKLM4 AND ESPECIALLY TRRM4/ WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND CHASSELL...THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AROUND WITCH LAKE...AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS WILL REMAIN CONCERNS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IN THE CASE OF THE MICHIGAMME RIVER PERHAPS WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. BUT OTHERWISE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN DESPITE SOME RECENT HEAVY PRECIP THAT IMPACTED MAINLY THE W HALF OF UPR MI. FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLA MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 280216 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 916 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013 .UPDATE...WILL BEEF UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE WESTERN CWA. HENCE NORTHWEST AREA HAS BEST CHANCE FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN WI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW AREAS OF NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BUMP FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST A COUPLE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MID CLOUDS NORTH OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MO WL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT WILL BE AT KMSN WHICH WILL BE ON EDGE OF THICKER CLOUDS. POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KMKE AND KENW DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM 1930Z SHOW LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHERN LAKE MI BUOY 45007 WENT BACK ONLINE FOR THE SEASON YESTERDAY EVENING. 45007 CURRENTLY REPORTING A WATER TEMP OF 40. EXPECT DEWPTS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WATER TEMPS REDUCING CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL BE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HENCE WL BE REMOVING FOG THREAT FOR TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013/ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH BROKEN TO OVERCAST DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL SUNSET BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR DISSIPATION GIVEN BROKEN TO OVERCAST NATURE. THESE MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND CLIP THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...DESPITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY SEE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP...BUT LEFT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY NEAR THE LAKE...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE 50S. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 13 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND...MAYBE A BIT HIGHER. ALL IN ALL...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SHOULD THEN BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO TOO HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY STRUGGLE FOR GOOD DAYTIME HEATING WITH ALL THE CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO MILD IF PRECIP DOES LINGER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IF CURRENT MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING...WITH VERY MILD AIR PUMPING UP INTO THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST WINDS. WENT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD SLOWER EXITING PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SHORTWAVE...OR AN EARLIER COLD FRONT ARRIVAL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ALSO...IF WINDS END UP BEING MORE SOUTHERLY...WOULD LIKE SEE MORE OF A LAKE INFLUENCE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. KEPT IT MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...AS MOST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SEEMED LIKE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. EVEN THE FASTER GFS STILL HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR MILD TEMPS IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPANDED AREA OF 70S A BIT MORE. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BIG UPPER LOW WILL SETUP SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY...DEEPENING AND REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH PRECIP. OVERALL THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA UNTIL SUNSET...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THESE MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT MADISON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VFR CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST AND CLIP THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION. MADISON MAY SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z SUNDAY...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT MADISON. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON. MARINE... LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PUSHES A WARM AIRMASS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD CREATE HIGH WAVES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 022020 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013 .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A 500MB CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN WI WITH A CLEAR NIGHT...MODERATE INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND 925MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND MANY OTHER MODELS...SO USED A BLEND OF RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS AND BIAS-CORRECTED REGIONAL CANADIAN FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. .WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY ANY MORE THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. A 16Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGE SHOWED NEARSHORE LAKE TEMPS RANGING FROM 37F NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO 40F NEAR KENOSHA. LAND TEMPS WILL WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH LAKESHORE AREAS INTO THE UPPER 30S/40. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND TO KENOSHA...WAUKESHA AND SHEBOYGAN BY THE MID AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. ONCE THE LAKE BREEZE HITS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL END AND TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. INLAND TEMPS WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WE SHOULD HEAD INTO WED EVENING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS FROM THE DRY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO BE REACHED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...THEN TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE TOWARD MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WE GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. .THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. STILL LOOKING AT LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN...IT SHOULD REACH THE WI/IL BORDER BY 7PM THURSDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS DOWN HERE...THE PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THEREFORE IT WILL BE LOSING IT/S DEFINITION AND MOISTURE...GETTING PINCHED BY RIDGING. ONLY POPS WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING...SLIGHT CHC. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL REFRIGERATE. .FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LEADING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH THE INITIAL PRECIP INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH THE LOW TRACK...WHILE THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...LIKELY BRINGING THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OF WISCONSIN. IT/S NOT A PARTICULARLY STRONG SYSTEM...SO NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE LOW WILL BE EXITING SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE TEMP PROFILE IS COLD ENOUGH TO BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT TO AREAS NORTH OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...BUT WARMING TEMPS SHOULD TURN IT TO ALL RAIN ON SATURDAY. .SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. IT APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. KEPT LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN CASE THE SYSTEM DECIDES TO COME BACK NORTH. GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW...THAT PUTS US IN A MORE NORTHERLY/EASTERLY FLOW...THUS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS...AGAIN DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. .TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM. THERE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF THAT THE NEXT LOW WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY OR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP. THERE ARE A FEW MORE LOWS THAT MOVE THROUGH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THE PATTERN DOES GET PRETTY ACTIVE...AT LEAST FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND PUSH INLAND TO KENOSHA... WAUKESHA AND SHEBOYGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING NORTH WINDS TO THE MKX NEARSHORE WATERS THU EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021221 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 421 AM AKDT TUE APR 2 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER EASTERN ALASKA FROM CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOSE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE TOWARDS NORTON SOUND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARDS NORTON SOUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED WEST. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AND INTERIOR ALASKA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WEST OF ST MATHEWS ISLAND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUCKCHI SEA THROUGH BEAUFORT SEA. GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE GOING FOR NEARLY 10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE NEARLY 10F DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...BOTH MODELS ARE PREDICTING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C FOR THE GREATER FAIRBANKS AREA AND MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -30C FOR AREAS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PAST COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FROM CANADA HAVE MODERATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NOT BEEN AS COLD AS PREDICTED. FOR NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING. WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE WESTERN COAST AND IN PARTICULAR THE YUKON DELTA REGION. BOTH THE MODIS AND GOES WEST FOG AND LOW CLOUD PRODUCT INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LIFR CONDITIONS FROM ST MICHAELS SOUTH TO EMMONAK. THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF ST MATHEWS ISLAND HAS INCREASED THE WINDS WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BERING STRAIT. THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. NORTH SLOPE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC BEGINS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST THROUGH THE WEEK. IN PARTICULAR...THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM ICY CAPE SOUTH THROUGH POINT HOPE. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG AND POOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE ARCTIC COAST. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY POCKETS WITHIN THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW LATER TODAY AND MOVES WEST...AREAS OF FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO HAVE FLURRIES IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUBLIC ZONE 224 AND 223 MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF TOK...WHICH WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN PASSES AND ON SUMMITS...PERHAPS LOWER THRESHOLD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR FEW LOCATIONS WITH 40 TO 45 MPH. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... MEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL LIMITING SNOW PACK RIPENING BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND SPREADING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ MAK APR 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 282005 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 305 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS PROGD TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE GFS/NAM PROG A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS PROGS PWAT VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH AREAWIDE LATE FRIDAY IN PHASE WITH THE FOREGOING DISTURBANCE... CONFIDENCE IN PCPN REMAINS LOW WHEN CONSIDERING NIL GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA/MSA. FROM THE ISENTROPIC PERSPECTIVE...THE GFS PROGS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DRG THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE GFS PROGS LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 295/300K FOR THIS AFTN YET NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN CURRENTLY FALLING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FOREGOING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT MAGNITUDES PROGD. THUS EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE YET WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT PCPN. CLOUDS WL LIMIT THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THUS...DOWNWARD VERTICAL MIXING OF MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT DRG THE AFTN LIMITED AND THUS WL MAINTAIN MAX WIND OVER LAND NEAR BREEZY RATHER THAN WINDY. && .MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN PSBL OVER THE SRN BAYS LATE THIS AFTN OWING TO LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING DRG THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE SRN BAYS UNTIL 23Z. NAM PROG 925MB 20-25KT ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT/FRIDAY ALONG WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES. YET...FEEL THAT SST VALUES (MODIS SST COMPOSITE) WL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER LAPSE RATES AND THUS LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. THUS WL KEEP WIND BELOW SCEC TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SMALLER WIND MAGNITUDES PROGD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY PESSIMISTIC FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONGER CAP TO OVERCOME THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EASTER MONDAY. LONGWAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A LARGE POLAR LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM THAT VORTEX IN A WIDE SWEEPING ARC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...INCLUDING SOUTH TEXAS WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM RAIN COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS GULF AIR IS LIFTED UP OVER THE SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH EXTENT OF COOL AIR AND STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT LOW CHANCE POPS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS APPEAR WARRANTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MARINE HEADLINES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINTING AT COASTAL LOW GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE EASTERN VORTEX TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL MAINLY BE FELT EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND...BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY WARRANTS SCRUTINY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 77 65 80 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 59 75 62 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 63 83 64 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 62 79 63 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 64 72 66 74 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 59 81 63 84 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 63 78 64 80 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 65 72 66 74 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM JV/71...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 271952 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 252 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRG THE PERIOD (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA. THE GFS PROGS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES YET MUCH OF THIS INCREASE LIKELY FROM UPPER LEVEL MSTR (PER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MIXING RATIO AT THE GFS 320K/325K ISENTROPIC LEVELS.) ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CONTINUE YET CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN (PER GFS 300K LEVEL DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THUS WL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED (WITH CLOUD COVER AS A LIMITING FACTOR.) && .MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM PROGS 20-25K WIND ONSHORE FLOW AT 925MB ALONG WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES...CONFIDENT THAT COOL SST VALUES IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 (MODIS SST COMPOSITE) OVER THE WATERS WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. THUS WL FCST WIND NO GREATER THAN THE SCEC CATEGORY. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUT MODERATE CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. SOME UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS BY SATURDAY AS JET STREAK SETS UP AND IMPLIES SOME MIDLVL CAP EROSION. WILL LEAVE IN LOW CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTEMPLATING A VERY LOW QPF EVENT. BEYOND SUNDAY MODELS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. GENERAL IDEA IS FOR A LARGE ARCTIC UPPER LOW TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN SPLIT FLOW WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THROUGH THIS BROAD TROF AS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN A CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS...GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL PAINT LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE EC SOLN...AND AWAIT A LESS DISSONANT SET OF MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AFTER WHICH TRENDS BECOME LESS CLEAR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 59 78 64 82 66 / 10 10 10 10 20 VICTORIA 53 74 58 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 20 LAREDO 60 79 63 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 20 ALICE 58 79 62 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 20 ROCKPORT 61 71 65 77 67 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 56 78 60 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 20 KINGSVILLE 57 78 63 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 62 72 66 79 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM JV/71...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 241620 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 920 AM PDT SUN MAR 24 2013 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FELL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE COOLEST SPOTS...IN THE NORTH BAY AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...FELL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S INLAND. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY...WHERE 850 MB ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 12 DEGREES C...LEADING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES! CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIDWEEK AND THE MORE PROMISING STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...AS WAS MENTIONED IN LAST EVENINGS DISCUSSION WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND WITH LESS MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW PTS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD SKIES ARE FOR THE MOST PART MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE IS A LITTLE PATCHY FOG...WITH HALF MOON BAY BEING THE USUAL CULPRIT ALONG WITH NAPA. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 10Z MODIS IMAGERY INDC THE TOP OF THE STRATUS BETWEEN 500-600 FEET. OFF TO THE BIGGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 37/145...WITH THE GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS INDC THAT THE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 130W. TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ONSHORE...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE COAST SO ALL RAIN WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE WETTER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AFTN AND THE ECMWF ON SUNDAY MORNING. CUT OFF ,LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...COULD BE WET. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS POPS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. ANY RAIN WE GET WILL BE VERY WELCOME. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 AM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/DAY. THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS 4 MB AND SLOWLY WEAKENING. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK BUT WILL PICK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE PER THE LATEST NAM MODEL...WITH SFO-SAC PREDICTED TO BE 3 MB EACH DAY. AREA DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND ADDITIONAL INCREASES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TONIGHT AS A VERY WEAK AND DRY TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH COASTAL STRATUS/FOG REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK-MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES BRINGING IN SOME STRATUS/FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS 23Z-04Z AS LOCAL ONSHORE GRADIENTS PICK UP A LITTLE. MVFR STRATUS CIG POSSIBLE BY 16Z MONDAY. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. AREAS MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY MONDAY MORNING. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY. IFR POSSIBLY DEVELOPING 03Z-07Z TONIGHT WITH IFR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RILEY/STROBIN AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 241154 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 454 AM PDT SUN MAR 24 2013 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...AS WAS MENTIONED IN LAST EVENINGS DISCUSSION WINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND WITH LESS MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW PTS ARE HIGHER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD SKIES ARE FOR THE MOST PART MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE IS A LITTLE PATCHY FOG...WITH HALF MOON BAY BEING THE USUAL CULPRIT ALONG WITH NAPA. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 10Z MODIS IMAGERY INDC THE TOP OF THE STRATUS BETWEEN 500-600 FEET. OFF TO THE BIGGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 37/145...WITH THE GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS INDC THAT THE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 130W. TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ONSHORE...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE COAST SO ALL RAIN WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTRICT. HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE WETTER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AFTN AND THE ECMWF ON SUNDAY MORNING. CUT OFF ,LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...COULD BE WET. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS POPS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. ANY RAIN WE GET WILL BE VERY WELCOME. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 8 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 8 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 210934 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 434 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES DRG THE PERIOD AND APPROACHING THE PLAINS/TX AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE BREEZY/WINDY OVER AT LEAST THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO ENTER AT LEAST CNTRL TX FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES NOT DEPICT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CWA. THE NAM DETERMINISTIC DOES GENERATE PCPN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. HWR... DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT WL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS DEPICTED WHEN CONSIDERING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT DRG THE PERIOD (PER CONDITIONS AT 300K LEVEL OF THE GFS) WL CONTRIBUTE TO CLOUD COVER DRG THE PERIOD...YET GFS SOUNDING PROFILE NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THUS EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER YET NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN DRG THE PERIOD. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. && .MARINE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATE SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY OWING TO VERTICAL MIXING OF INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT. (NAM/LOCAL ARW SUGGEST BARELY SCA THIS AFTN YET FEEL THAT MID/UPPER 60S SST VALUES PER MODIS SST COMPOSITE WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING.) EXPECT WIND NEAR THE SCEC/SCA BOUNDARY TNGT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN INCREASING WIND ALOFT AND DECREASING 0-1KM LAPSE RATES. AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG EXPECTED DRG THE 06-15Z FRIDAY PERIOD BASED ON EXPECTED SFC DEW POINT/SST VALUES. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY LINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVE E ACROSS S TX ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN HOW FAR E THE BDRY GOES. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED HOT TEMPS ACROSS THE W CWA...A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND BRING THE DRY LINE TO A HALT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE E CWA. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON PRECIP CHCS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST THE E-NE CWA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA'S AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME SAT MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA'S/TSRA'S ACROSS THE NE FROM 12-18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTING FARTHER S...A SHORT WAVE PROGD BY ALL THE MODELS TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING CAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE AND PW'S PROGD TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NE DUE TO THE COLLISION OF THE DRY LINE AND THE SEA BREEZE. THE CIN WILL BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...BUT IS PROGD TO BE THE LOWEST ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE NE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE DRY LINE WILL STALL IN THE AFTERNOON...IF IT EVEN DOES STALL. HAVE DECREASED HIGHS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY FOR THE VCT AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE HIGHS FARTHER DOWN THE COAST BUT LEFT THE VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE W CWA DUE TO A W-NW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRY LINE. DUE TO VERY LOW RH VALUES AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE W ON SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER DANGER THREAT MAY BE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE PUSHED ANY MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA OUT INTO THE GULF. COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX THRU SUNDAY WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE BELOW NORM WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. A GENERALLY E TO NE FLOW WILL DVLP SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY ACROSS MARINE AREAS. THE FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN MOD ACROSS THE GULF THRU EARLY WED. WINDS ARE PROGD TO VEER TO THE SE BY WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO S TX ON TUE...BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 79 66 83 69 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 76 64 82 66 85 / 10 10 10 20 20 LAREDO 87 66 95 70 99 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 82 66 88 68 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 72 66 74 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 20 COTULLA 85 62 93 67 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 81 66 86 68 95 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 73 67 75 69 83 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM TE/81...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 181211 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 411 AM AKDT MON MAR 18 2013 .DISCUSSION... AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS WRANGLE ISLAND. AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA BY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND FLURRIES TO EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KOTZEBUE SOUND BY FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THE LOCATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AFTER FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO PULL IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BRING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA BY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKOTKA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAKER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUCKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER THE YUKON DELTA BY THURSDAY. THE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTH SLOPE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND LOCATED NEAR BARROW ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH SLOPE...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT COAST THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS SYSTEM BRING IN COLDER AIR WITH WIND CHILLS OF 50 BELOW TUESDAY MORNING AND SNOW OF AN INCH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WIND SPEEDS AND SNOW WILL CAUSE FOR BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF A MILE TO HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT COAST AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR FOR AREAS WEST OF BARTER ISLAND AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES WEST ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTERN ALASKA...OBSERVATIONS OF FOG COMPARE WELL WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THE MODIS IFR CONDITIONS AT 230 AM AKDT ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA. EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD/FOG FEATURES AND REMAINING FLURRIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT TODAY...ALONG COASTAL ZONES 210 AND 220. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SOME FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245. && $$ MAK MAR 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 171205 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 405 AM AKDT SUN MAR 17 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BEAUFORT SEA DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CHUCKCHI SEA BY MONDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA COOLER ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS BARROW BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTON SOUND THAT CAUSED STRONG WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES FROM WALES THROUGH TELLER OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST MATHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE YUKON DELTA TODAY AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA BEHIND IT AND STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. AT 130 AKST...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MODIS INDICATED STRATUS DECK AND HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS YUKON DELTA...CAN ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF FOG. NORTH SLOPE... NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY BUT A COOLER AND WINDY PERIOD COMING EARLY TO MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW FEATURE BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. IN ANY MODEL SCENARIO...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW AND STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND SPREADING WEST ON WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR...SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET COOLER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA. SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODELS REGARDING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE ALONG THE ALASKAN RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PERHAPS FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ MAK MAR 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 161626 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 926 AM PDT SAT MAR 16 2013 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AROUND OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATION POINTS INDICATING VISIBILITIES AROUND A QUARTER OF A MILE. SATELLITE SHOWS AN INTERESTING SETUP WITH CLOUDS RIGHT AT THE COAST...BAYS...AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHILE SPOTS MORE OFFSHORE ARE CLEAR. WITH 5 MB FROM THE NORTH AND JUST 1.5 FROM THE WEST STILL EXPECT THAT MOST SPOTS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON. HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN JUST IN CONTINUES TO BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO FEEL FAIRLY GOOD ABOUT THE CURRENT PACKAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDC AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE VALLEYS. THE 10Z MODIS IMAGERY IS INDC THAT THE DEPTH OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS IS LESS THAN 1000 FEET. A SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR THE DISTRICT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...MAINLY INLAND. WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP THE DISTRICT DRY RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MOVES TO THE COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AFTN...WITH RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE COAST...SO WHEREAS RAIN IS LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE COAST. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE COMMON REFRAIN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS NEXT SATURDAY... WITH 80S POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. && .AVIATION...AS OF 6:56 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY AREA AFFECTING LOCAL TERMINALS. THE LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW THEREFORE CIGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER TOO LONG. IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AROUND 17Z-18Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING THEN STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WILL BURN OFF AROUND 17Z-18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS WILL BURN OFF AROUND 17Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS TO 20 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM SCA...MRY BAY FROM 2 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN AVIATION/MARINE: CW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 161145 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 445 AM PDT SAT MAR 16 2013 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDC AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE VALLEYS. THE 10Z MODIS IMAGERY IS INDC THAT THE DEPTH OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS IS LESS THAN 1000 FEET. A SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR THE DISTRICT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...MAINLY INLAND. WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP THE DISTRICT DRY RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MOVES TO THE COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE DISTRICT BY TUESDAY AFTN...WITH RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE COAST...SO WHEREAS RAIN IS LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE COAST. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE COMMON REFRAIN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR RIDGING WILL BUILD RIGHT BACK ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS NEXT SATURDAY... WITH 80S POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:48 PM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING STRATUS LAYER MAKING A RETURN TO THE COAST WITH HALF MOON BAY REPORTING 800 FOOT CIGS AND 5 MINUTE DATA OUT OF KSFO SHOWING OVERCAST 700 FEET ALREADY. GIVING ONSHORE TRENDS EXPECT CIGS TO FILTER INTO SF BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LATEST PACKAGE WILL SHOW A BURN OFF AROUND 17Z GIVEN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. VICINITY OF KSFO...LATEST OBS ALREADY SHOW OVERCAST 700 AT KSFO. EXPECT CIGS TO STAY IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 17Z SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH CIGS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAY SATURDAY MORNING. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AT HALF MOON BAY FORECAST TO REACH KMRY AND KSNS OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MIX OUT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM SCA...MRY BAY FROM 2 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN AVIATION/MARINE: CW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 112058 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1258 PM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE CHUCKCHI SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND MOVE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALASKA...BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE IT WEST ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AFTER FRIDAY. NORTH SLOPE...THE SUOMI NPP VIIRS SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT WAS INDICATING A DECENT LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY INDICATED 1 TO 2 MILES IN VISIBILITY WITH FLURRIES AND FOG. THE IFR CONDITIONS ALIGN VERY WELL WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MODIS IFR PRODUCT. THERE ARE SOME VERY ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THE MODIS LIFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITHIN THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND PERHAPS A BREAK IN SOME OF THE FOG. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPCOMING WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BROOKS RANGE...PUBLIC ZONE 206 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COLDER AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST INTO MUCH OF THE BROOKS RANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE HILLS. WESTERN ALASKA...SOMEWHAT QUIET ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS LIKE ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTON SOUND INCLUDING THE ST MICHAELS AREA. THE VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT POCKET OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA INCLUDING NOME AREA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ST MICHAEL. OTHER AREAS OF THE NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AS FORECASTED AND SEEN IN AREA WEB CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE FOG OR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS EXPECTING TO CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING. GAMBLE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES UP TO A MILE DUE TO LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...FLURRIES EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 21 BELOW TO 28 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF ?? TO ?? ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN...MANY AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE INCREASED WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS OF 45 BELOW TO 60 BELOW...DEPENDING ON LOCATION...THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MAK MAR 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 110154 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 954 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. EARLY EVENING SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST MARINE BASED STRATOCUMULUS IS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING MUCH NORTH OF SAINT CATHERINES SOUND WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER 50S. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY...BUT THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE UPPER RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE TONIGHT. THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS MARINE INFLUENCES INCREASE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS SHOW A SLUG OF 925MB MOISTURE SURGING NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A LOOK AT LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS EXISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH 925MB MOISTURE FIELDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER FAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND NEAR THE SAINT SIMMONS AREA SUGGEST SOME OF THIS CLOUD CANOPY IS MOVING ONSHORE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND MAKE A RUN FOR NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL SURVIVE AT IS PROPAGATES OVER THE CONSIDERABLY COOLER SHELF WATER ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY SAINT CATHERINES SOUND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. 1KM MODIS SEA SURFACE DATA INDICATE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING THE LOWER 50S WITHIN THE ABOVE CORRIDOR UNLIKE NEAR SAINT SIMMONS AND JACKSONVILLE WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5-8 DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN TO TAKE A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE SKYCAST FOR TONIGHT SHOWING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. FARTHER INLAND...SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ONCE A BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND MORE DIURNALLY BASED CUMULUS DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES INLAND...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE 18Z COOP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DESPITE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. SE WINDS WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPS ON AREA BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND PUSHING ONSHORE...BUT DEPICTION OF CONVECTION/QPF IS LIKELY OVERDONE...THUS MAINTAINED LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS/ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...DEEP LAYER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS 1.25-1.5 INCH AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCLUDING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS. PER LATEST GUIDANCE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS...AND ADDED FORECAST DETAILS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION TIMING. SHOWERS WILL ENTER WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME AND WILL ADVANCE STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LASTING 4-8 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM INLAND COUNTIES AND INTO COASTAL COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...LOCALLY GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SUBTLE DECREASE AND PERHAPS A N/S SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS TAPERED QPF CLOSER TO 0.10 INCH TOWARD THE COAST. TUESDAY MORNING...SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH CLEARING ADVANCING INTO INLAND/WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT PERHAPS DELAYED ACROSS COASTAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FROPA TUESDAY...THUS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS 68-72F. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AND AROUND 50F LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OFFSET OF DEEP LAYER NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. INITIALLY...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. THEN...RISING HEIGHTS AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. THE 10/12Z EUROPEAN DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW LAYER OF GROUND FOG BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT EXPECT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO PROHIBIT FORMATION CLOSE TO THE COAST. SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE...BUT HOLDING OFF ON THOSE UNTIL WE SEE THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON SATELLITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE MID MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. A SIGNIFICANT 14-15 SECOND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A DEEP LOW WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT AS HIGH AS 5-8 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 6-8 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...AND 6 FT SEAS COULD PUSH TO WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON... PER 10/12Z WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...EXTENDED THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ374 INTO THURSDAY...BUT DID NOT YET ISSUE ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR NEARSHORE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA TUESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW...THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF STRONGER NW WINDS PROBABLY ATTAINING SCA STRENGTH MOST AREAS FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALSO SUBSIDE INTO THE 1-3 FT RANGE BY LATE WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ ST/BDC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 102322 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 722 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... THE UPPER RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE TONIGHT. SOME CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS MARINE INFLUENCES INCREASE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS SHOW A SLUG OF 925MB MOISTURE SURGING NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A LOOK AT LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS EXISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH 925MB MOISTURE FIELDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER FAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND NEAR THE SAINT SIMMONS AREA SUGGEST SOME OF THIS CLOUD CANOPY IS MOVING ONSHORE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND MAKE A RUN FOR NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL SURVIVE AT IS PROPAGATES OVER THE CONSIDERABLY COOLER SHELF WATER ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY SAINT CATHERINES SOUND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. 1KM MODIS IMAGERY SEA SURFACE DATA INDICATE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING THE LOWER 50S WITHIN THE ABOVE CORRIDOR UNLIKE NEAR SAINT SIMMONS AND JACKSONVILLE WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5-8 DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...PLAN TO TAKE A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE SKYCAST FOR TONIGHT SHOWING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. FARTHER INLAND...SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ONCE A BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND MORE DIURNALLY BASED CUMULUS DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES INLAND...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE 18Z COOP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DESPITE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. SE WINDS WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPS ON AREA BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND PUSHING ONSHORE...BUT DEPICTION OF CONVECTION/QPF IS LIKELY OVERDONE...THUS MAINTAINED LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS/ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...DEEP LAYER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS 1.25-1.5 INCH AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCLUDING UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS. PER LATEST GUIDANCE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS...AND ADDED FORECAST DETAILS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION TIMING. SHOWERS WILL ENTER WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME AND WILL ADVANCE STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LASTING 4-8 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM INLAND COUNTIES AND INTO COASTAL COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...LOCALLY GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SUBTLE DECREASE AND PERHAPS A N/S SPLIT IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS TAPERED QPF CLOSER TO 0.10 INCH TOWARD THE COAST. TUESDAY MORNING...SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH CLEARING ADVANCING INTO INLAND/WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT PERHAPS DELAYED ACROSS COASTAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FROPA TUESDAY...THUS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS 68-72F. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND AND AROUND 50F LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OFFSET OF DEEP LAYER NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. INITIALLY...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. THEN...RISING HEIGHTS AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. THE 10/12Z EUROPEAN DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW LAYER OF GROUND FOG BEFRE SUNRISE...BUT EXPECT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO PROHIBIT FORMATION CLOSE TO THE COAST. SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE...BUT HOLDING OFF ON THOSE UNTIL WE SEE THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON SATELLITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE MID MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. A SIGNIFICANT 14-15 SECOND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A DEEP LOW WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT AS HIGH AS 5-8 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECT ELEVATED WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 6-8 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...AND 6 FT SEAS COULD PUSH TO WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON... PER 10/12Z WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...EXTENDED THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ374 INTO THURSDAY...BUT DID NOT YET ISSUE ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR NEARSHORE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA TUESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW...THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF STRONGER NW WINDS PROBABLY ATTAINING SCA STRENGTH MOST AREAS FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALSO SUBSIDE INTO THE 1-3 FT RANGE BY LATE WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ ST/BDC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 032145 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 345 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE WEST COAST (WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) PROGD TO ENTER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY MONDAY THEN MERGE INTO A STG UPPER LOW WITH AXIS MOVG EAST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA WITH STG WIND AT 925MB OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL MIXING MONDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY/WINDY SOUTH WIND MONDAY AFTN PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN CWA. OWING TO SOUTH WIND COMPONENT...DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR/SOUTH WIND WL CONTRIBUTE TO HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN CWA WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE FAR WEST. AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE GFS/NAM PROG A FRONT TO APPROACH THE NRN CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM. THE PSN OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THUS MORE CONFIDENT IN THE SLOWER NAM. && .MARINE...VERTICAL MIXING OF THE INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT (30-40KT FROM NAM 925MB AT 12Z MONDAY) MENTIONED ABOVE WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WHEN CONSIDERING NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/MODIS SST VALUES. ANTICIPATE THAT LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING WL RESULT IN SCEC OVER THE BAYS TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY MONDAY MID MORNING. ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND FOR THE BAY WATERS BEGINNING 14Z MONDAY. EXTENDED SCA ONLY TO 00Z TUESDAY OWING TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SCA OVER THE BAYS BY THEN. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WARRANTS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND FOR MONDAY AFTN. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME EXPECT IT TO BE ALONG THE COAST BY AROUND 15Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH LEADING TO A FIRE WEATHER RISK. WILL HOLD ON TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT AN UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE EFFICIENT AT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THAN ANYTHING WE/VE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOME POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD START SEEING SOME STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THINGS ARE LOOKING SOMEWHAT PROMISING FOR SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT REALLY DECIDED ON A SOLUTION...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY. WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WOULD EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME HOPE AT PRECIP. GOING TO HOLD WITH JUST 20 POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...NOTHING TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY. AFTER THE WARMTH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK COOL...BUT THEN TEMPS MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 58 84 60 74 42 / 0 0 0 10 0 VICTORIA 54 78 57 69 37 / 0 0 0 10 0 LAREDO 55 93 54 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALICE 53 90 55 74 41 / 0 0 0 10 0 ROCKPORT 60 73 61 70 44 / 0 0 0 10 0 COTULLA 51 91 51 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 54 88 59 74 39 / 0 0 0 10 0 NAVY CORPUS 61 76 62 73 48 / 0 0 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL... GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK... MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA... WEBB. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM PZ/83...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 261020 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 320 AM MST TUE FEB 26 2013 .DISCUSSION... TRICKY FORECAST DETAILS WILL INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT QUICKLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A PRONOUNCED JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND DRAG ITS WAY THROUGH NM. THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASED SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO ORIENT ITSELF FROM NW-SE OVER THE STATE. WILL HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS DOWN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST H7 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SKIM THIS HIGHER COUNTRY. MANY ADJACENT AREAS WILL LIKELY COME VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...MAYBE EVEN HITTING FOR AN OB OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY IN THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A PATCHWORK OF SNOW PACK WITH SEVERAL HOLES OF BARE GROUND SHOWING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE PECOS VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE AND COMPLICATE MESOSCALE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT SPATIAL DISTANCES. WHILE WINDS WOULD BE DOWNSLOPING IN MUCH OF THIS AREA...SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT WORK AND MUCH OF THE WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE ORIGINATING OR FLOWING OVER A DENSER SNOW PACK. HAVE TRIED TO HEDGE BELOW GUIDANCE AGAIN WHERE SNOW PACK WAS REVEALED ON SATELLITE...BUT AGAIN THIS IS A TOUGH ONE TO PINPOINT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NM TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ONLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THUS...NO ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN THE SANGRES/RATON RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNEAKY LEFTOVER FORCING/OROGRAPHICS IN THE PESKY NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY...SO WINDS WILL SEE A WELCOME DECLINE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY...10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES OUR WAY...AND ACTUALLY MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE DISTINCT ENERGY GOING FARTHER SOUTH...AN ARTIFACT OF THE SOUTHERN OR SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE JET HANGING NEARBY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNABLE TO START ANY KIND OF REBOUND. DRY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP ON THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN...FINALLY PROVIDING A PERSUASIVE UPWARD NUDGE TO TEMPERATURES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...BUT THE FLOW WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO TURN MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO MONDAY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...AND NOTHING TOO ROBUST IS IN THE WORKS YET. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCE TO DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...SWEEPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE RGV...AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTH CENTRAL MTS...WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 OR 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RH HAS TRENDED UP A BIT SINCE 24 HOURS AGO THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE IN THE MIDDLE/LOWER RGV. VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND FAR NORTHEAST. THEREFORE VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR EAST AND CENTRAL AND GOOD EAST. ANOTHER BUT WEAKER TROUGH TO PASS OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS MAY TURN OUT TO BE STRONGER FRIDAY AS A BRISK NORTH FLOW ALOFT MORPHS INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT BY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN VENTILATION RATES IS NOTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. VENT RATES WORSEN SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM TO NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANT RULE OUT PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 14Z ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND CLOVIS. STRONG WINDS RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 22 TO 32 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KTS FROM ROUGHLY FARMINGTON TO SANTA ROSA. SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 37 13 38 12 / 5 5 0 0 DULCE........................... 33 4 35 -3 / 20 10 5 0 CUBA............................ 36 7 37 11 / 10 5 5 0 GALLUP.......................... 40 5 40 7 / 5 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 35 10 36 10 / 5 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 42 6 41 14 / 5 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 46 9 39 9 / 5 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 54 20 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 31 2 32 1 / 30 20 10 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 18 36 19 / 10 5 5 5 PECOS........................... 40 13 41 16 / 10 5 10 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 5 32 4 / 30 20 10 0 RED RIVER....................... 28 -1 28 -2 / 40 40 20 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 -3 30 -4 / 30 30 20 5 TAOS............................ 34 7 34 8 / 30 20 10 0 MORA............................ 37 12 37 11 / 10 20 10 5 ESPANOLA........................ 42 18 38 13 / 5 5 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 38 15 36 17 / 10 5 5 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 40 16 39 17 / 5 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 22 40 21 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 24 42 24 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 19 44 18 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 20 44 21 / 5 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 51 19 47 19 / 5 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 45 22 44 24 / 5 5 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 49 21 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 12 36 13 / 5 5 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 41 19 39 16 / 5 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 16 41 13 / 5 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 10 38 17 / 5 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 17 43 21 / 5 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 52 23 48 25 / 5 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 45 22 40 22 / 5 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 37 11 35 11 / 40 40 20 5 RATON........................... 39 13 37 12 / 30 30 20 5 SPRINGER........................ 39 17 39 13 / 20 20 5 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 39 11 37 12 / 5 10 5 5 CLAYTON......................... 42 18 44 19 / 10 20 10 5 ROY............................. 41 17 42 17 / 10 20 5 5 CONCHAS......................... 46 22 47 21 / 5 10 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 48 21 47 18 / 5 5 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 46 20 46 17 / 5 10 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 43 18 44 20 / 5 5 0 0 PORTALES........................ 43 17 43 18 / 5 5 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 49 20 48 21 / 5 5 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 67 29 52 31 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 50 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 57 19 46 21 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521>524-526-529-533-539. && $$ 52  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 241024 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 424 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013 .SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE FOG IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI HAVE ONLY OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...NOTED VIA WEB CAMS AND 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE PRODUCT. FOG CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID- MORNING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FURTHER. THIS MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER MAINLY BELOW 900-850 MB. WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR STREAMER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER PROGGED MID LEVEL TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR AN ERODING CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THINK WE SHOULD JUST HAVE SHOWERS...IF ANYTHING TODAY...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH. ONLY A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODELS GO OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE TTU WRF DOES BRING A VERY THIN LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER JET PUSHING WITH GOOD TIMING TONIGHT. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY THE JET LINES UP AND WHICH QUAD WE WILL BE IN. SOME VARIATION IN MODELS...BUT MOST SUGGEST THE BEST DYNAMICS/TIMING TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY INTO THE VICTORIA AREA. HAVE LEFT THE 20/30 POPS GOING FROM YESTERDAY WITH PLENTY OF DOUBT STILL IN PLAY WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND THE CAP POTENTIALLY BEING REINFORCED BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. 850 AND 925 MB WINDS AS STRONG AS 50 TO 60 KNOTS ARE INDICATED IN ALL GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD SEE A PORTION OF THAT MIX DOWN. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THESE WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY PRETTY CLEAR WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE TOUGH HOWEVER. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S...HAVE A TOUGH TIME BELIEVING THIS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A 30 KT NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 550 AND 560 DURING THE DAY. HAVE HIGHS IN THE FAR EAST INDICATED AROUND 70...BUT THAT WOULD LIKELY BE PRE-FRONTAL. THINK DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST EVERYONE...AND WILL FEEL COOLER THAN THAT WITH THE BRISK WIND. && .LONG TERM...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER TX/SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MERGES WITH IT FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT (PER 1000-500MB THICKNESS) WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EARLY TUESDAY. (CONSIDERING BOTH THE EXPECTED COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CURRENT MODIS SST VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...STRONG SCA LIKELY/GALE PBL MONDAY EVENING.) IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN AFTER THE FOREGOING MERGER...ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT (OWING TO DRYING IN RESPONSE TO THE MONDAY FRONT.) SLIGHT DIFFERENCES NOTWITHSTANDING...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER PATTERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE (MEAN TROUGH WEST COAST AND MEAN TROUGH ERN CONUS) DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUCH WL BE CONDUCIVE TO A REINFORCING SURGE OF MSLP OVER THER REGION FRIDAY. THUS...DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD WITH BELOW AVERAGE MIN TEMPS. && .MARINE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OPEN WATER AREAS ON MONDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AND CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT AROUND GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE BAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE RISK FOR MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 63 71 41 74 / 10 20 20 0 0 VICTORIA 72 60 68 39 71 / 10 30 30 0 0 LAREDO 80 57 70 40 78 / 10 10 10 0 0 ALICE 78 61 70 40 76 / 10 20 10 0 0 ROCKPORT 71 64 71 45 69 / 20 30 20 0 0 COTULLA 78 56 66 37 74 / 10 20 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 77 63 71 39 76 / 10 20 20 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 71 66 72 47 70 / 20 20 20 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ PZ/83...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 180305 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 905 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2013 .UPDATE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE TO OVER 35 F. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MRNG SO THAT IT EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TO PRODUCE AREAS OF -RA FROM LATE MRNG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE -RA MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SN IN THE LATE AFTN IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING FOR A TIME. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR TURN TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMSN AND IN THE EVENING FARTHER EAST. LLWS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS ABOVE 1K AGL. && .MARINE...HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY FROM TODAY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ICE GROWTH IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OAK CREEK SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR AND BEYOND. ICE MORE PATCHY AND THINNER FARTHER NORTH TO PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CONTRIBUTED TO THE ICE DEVELOPMENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND STRONGER WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE ICE UP. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ KAVINSKY  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 120003 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 703 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY... FOLLOWED BY MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC OVER THE NEXT 12HRS...THEN TO NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN NY...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. UPSTREAM IN THE COLD POOL...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP CAN BE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT /USING 500MB AS A PROXY/ WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY COLD AIR MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR AT LEAST SOME MINOR LAKE RESPONSE...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. LAKE EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...850MB TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY DROP TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LAKE ONTARIO IS ABOUT 3-4C BASED OFF OF MODIS AND OBSERVATIONS...MAKING FOR MARGINALLY INTERESTING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THERE MAY ALSO BE TOO MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LAKE FOR A SINGLE LAKE BAND. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DECENT FETCH TOGETHER WITH FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AT THE EAST END OF THE LAKE AS WINDS SLOW DOWN AND PILE UP...THIS SHOULD ALL FAVOR PERSISTENT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKE. THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RATHER THAN LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. THIS WILL CONFINE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA AMOUNTS TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND PERHAPS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT PURELY LAKE EFFECT...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS STILL THE BEST MEANS TO CONVEY THE MESSAGE THAT THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT TOTALS TO REACH THE 5-9 INCH RANGE IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE TUG HILL...WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. LAKE EFFECT FOR EAST OF LAKE ERIE...COLD AIR MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY HERE...BUT ALSO A CAP AROUND 4000 FT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...PLUS LESS FETCH...WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN TYPICAL UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING... CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES MORE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE THAN LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT OR NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WIND...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING...WITH TYPICALLY FAVORED EXPOSED AREAS/SHORELINE LOCATIONS FEELING THE HIGHEST GUSTS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-50 RANGE...AND WILL KEEP THIS UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY FINGER LAKES WEST COINCIDING WITH MIXING WITH HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE ALREADY CREEPING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 3PM. ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EAST OF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MID LEVEL DRYING WILL WEAKEN THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTICUALRLY EAST OF LK ERIE WHERE THE DRYING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH EAST OF ERIE AND ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TUG. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY REMAINING NUISANCE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING WILL CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ITS ATTENDENT SFC LOW WILL BE FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE AFORMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FROM PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES (PRONOUNCED CHANNELLED VORT) TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PRODUCE A FEED OF CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM (AS PER THE GFS)...ANY SUCH STORM WOULD HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IN FACT...LOW IMPACT WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE ACCUMULATIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A FEW AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SPOTTY MVFR VSBY...AND EVEN SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WHERE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW. BY LATE EVENING THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO SPREADS EAST. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE VSBY WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. EAST OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EXPECT MVFR VSBY TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER ABOUT 03Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBY OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY IFR VSBY WILL LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MORE PERSISTENT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. MVFR VSBY WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE...STRONGEST NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG OVER TO KROC. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS WILL STILL RUN IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS && .MARINE... WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>004-010>014- 019>021-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006- 008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043- 062-063. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ZAFF NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...ZAFF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 112034 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 334 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC OVER THE NEXT 12HRS...THEN TO NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN NY...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. UPSTREAM IN THE COLD POOL...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP CAN BE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT /USING 500MB AS A PROXY/ WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY COLD AIR MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR AT LEAST SOME LAKE RESPONSE. LAKE EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...850MB TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY DROP TO -10C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LAKE ONTARIO IS ABOUT 3-4C BASED OFF OF MODIS AND OBSERVATIONS...MAKING FOR MARGINALLY INTERESTING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THERE MAY ALSO BE TOO MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LAKE FOR A SINGLE LAKE BAND. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DECENT FETCH TOGETHER WITH FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST WILL AS USUAL BE THE TRIPLE POINT OF LEWIS...JEFFERSON...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...IE TUG HILL...THEN SOUTHERN TUG HILL ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ORIENTED TO THE WNW. LAKE EFFECT FOR EAST OF LAKE ERIE...COLD AIR MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY HERE...BUT ALSO A CAP AROUND 4000 FT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...PLUS LESS FETCH...WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN TYPICAL UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN ERIE...WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...WITH WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT OR NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WIND...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING...WITH TYPICALLY FAVORED EXPOSED AREAS/SHORELINE LOCATIONS FEELING THE HIGHEST GUSTS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-50 RANGE...AND WILL KEEP THIS UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY FINGER LAKES WEST COINCIDING WITH MIXING WITH HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE ALREADY CREEPING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 3PM. ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EAST OF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MID LEVEL DRYING WILL WEAKEN THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTICUALRLY EAST OF LK ERIE WHERE THE DRYING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH EAST OF ERIE AND ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TUG. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY REMAINING NUISANCE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING WILL CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ITS ATTENDENT SFC LOW WILL BE FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE AFORMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FROM PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES (PRONOUNCED CHANNELLED VORT) TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PRODUCE A FEED OF CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM (AS PER THE GFS)...ANY SUCH STORM WOULD HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IN FACT...LOW IMPACT WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE ACCUMULATIONS. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD AIRMASS WORKS IT WAY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN STANDARD TAF LOCATIONS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN KJHW. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER WESTERN NY AREAS...WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE EFFECT BANDS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS && .MARINE... WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012- 019-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-013-014-020- 021. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043- 062-063. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ045. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ZAFF NEAR TERM...ZAFF SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...ZAFF MARINE...ZAFF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 111801 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 101 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY TODAY...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND A WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THIS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STACKED LOW SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WNY...WITH A NARROW BOUNDARY PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 30S...WITH GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING UPSTREAM. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. FOR WINDS...ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE /ADVISORY/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...SO WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF TOWARD THE EAST...SO CURRENT ADVISORY CUTOFF OF CAYUGA COUNTY LOOKING GOOD AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FOR SNOW...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO ABOUT -10C AT 850MB IN THE WEST TONIGHT...AND ONLY -6 TO -8C OR SO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALBEIT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WHILE THIS IS BARELY ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE RESPONSE GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0-1C IN LAKE ERIE AND 3-4C OVER LAKE ONTARIO BASED OFF OF LATEST MODIS GUIDANCE AND POINT OBSERVATIONS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FETCH OFF THE LAKE TO WARRANT A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TUG HILL AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY /T-3 INCHES/ ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WITH T-1 INCHES ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY NIGHT SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...YET THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE FLOW VEERING A LITTLE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL BE MORE FOCUSED UPON OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY FURTHER DRYING ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING AN END TO THE WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT JUST A CHANCE FOR MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CARRYING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING TO FLURRIES JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO ABOUT WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY THE UPPER GENESEE RIVER VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH A SPOT 40 POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DURING THIS PERIOD...GFS/ECMWF FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. INITIALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TREND COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE...IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION..THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH TIMING AND THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NY WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALL TAF LOCATIONS FREE OF PRECIPITATION AS OF 15Z BUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS IN THE WEST AND 30KTS IN THE EAST. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW IN BETWEEN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN. AFTER THIS...EXPECT A BIT OF LULL...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE AN INCREASE TO 35 KNOT GALES BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012- 019-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-013-014-020-021. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043- 062-063. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ045. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...ZAFF SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...ZAFF MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 111449 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 949 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY TODAY...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND A WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THIS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STACKED LOW SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON SOUTH THROUGH OH. AHEAD OF THIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION IS MOVING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND WILL DROP MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED ADVISORIES FROM THE FORECAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVE...THE DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE COOLING AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.../GUSTING 45-50 MPH FOR THIS EVENT/ LASTING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AS WIND VEERS FROM SW TO W...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INLAND AS WELL. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER OVER FAR WESTERN NY THAN OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE...SO CURRENT ADVISORY CUTOFF OF CAYUGA COUNTY LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO ABOUT -10C AT 850MB IN THE WEST...AND ONLY -6 OR SO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALBEIT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. THIS IS HARDLY ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE RESPONSE GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0-1C IN LAKE ERIE AND 3-4C OVER LAKE ONTARIO BASED OFF OF LATEST MODIS GUIDANCE AND POINT OBSERVATIONS. WILL WAIT FOR NEW GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY /T-3 INCHES/ ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WITH T-1 INCHES ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ON TUESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM BEING MORE THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF BOTH GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH CREATES VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONLY MINOR LAKE INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...DRIER AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LOWER THIS MOISTURE TO JUST BELOW THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH WEAK UPWARD OMEGA FORCING THERE WILL NOT BE GOOD SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WNY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A SNOW SHOWER EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO CAUSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BE TRANSITORY THROUGH THE DAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SNOW EVENT FOR THE TUG HILL REGION CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH A CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE WILL JUST MENTION THE PROSPECTS FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN THE HWO. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT CLIMB TOO MUCH FROM THEIR MORNING LOWS...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW CARRIES FARTHER EASTWARD THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...YET THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE FLOW VEERING A LITTLE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL BE MORE FOCUSED UPON OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY FURTHER DRYING ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING AN END TO THE WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT JUST A CHANCE FOR MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CARRYING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING TO FLURRIES JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO ABOUT WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY THE UPPER GENESEE RIVER VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH A SPOT 40 POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DURING THIS PERIOD...GFS/ECMWF FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. INITIALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TREND COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE...IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION..THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH TIMING AND THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NY WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL TAF LOCATIONS FREE OF PRECIPITATION AS OF 15Z BUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS IN THE WEST AND 30KTS IN THE EAST. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW IN BETWEEN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN. AFTER THIS...EXPECT A BIT OF LULL...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE AN INCREASE TO 35 KNOT GALES BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-013-014-020-021. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043-062-063. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ045. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...ZAFF SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...ZAFF MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 092146 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 346 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013 .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TX/SRN PLAINS. THE GFS PROGS THIS SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTHEAST DRG THE PERIOD WHILE THE ASSOCIATED STRONG JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACRS CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT/ EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY. YET...THIS FRONT IS PROGD TO STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH IS REASONABLE SINCE THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS AWAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE JET...THE 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CWA/MSA SHOULD INCREASE. BASED ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...EXPECT BRN VALUES IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE CWA. YET...CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE HIGH OVERNIGHT YET INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION (ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA.) NEVERTHELESS...THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT PARCELS TO THEIR LFC VALUES. THUS...ANTICIPATE MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDER OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE CLOSER TO THE FRONT/UPPER DYNAMICS. THE GREATEST POPS WL BE CONFINED TO THE NERN CWA FOR TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM PROG ISENTROPIC DESCENT/DRYING OVER THE CWA SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONT/WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES/MSTR TO GENERATE PCPN. (THE GFS ALSO PROGS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.) && .MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT (NAM 925KT 40-45KT WIND) AND SIGNIFICANT (YET NOT DRY ADIABATIC) NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW CONSISTENT WITH 20KT+ SFC WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. YET... BASED ON COMPARISON OF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH BUOY DATA AND ANALYSIS OF 2-KM MODIS SST...EXPECT SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. YET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL AROUND 06Z SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK FRONTAL BDRY IS PROGD TO DRIFT S ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND LIGHT. THE BDRY IS PROGD TO STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE. MODELS HAVE VARIED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. THE LATEST RUNS WERE ALL WEAKER WITH THE WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER 35-40KT NW FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX BY TUE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THEREFORE KEPT WINDS STRONGER THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGESTED BUT DID LOWER THEM SOMEWHAT GIVEN THIS IS DAY 4 AND MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT. AS FOR PRECIP...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ON MONDAY WITH THE STALLING BDRY AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO STRATIFORM RAIN DURING LATER UPDATES IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES. SHRA/TSRA CHCS INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE STRONGER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW INCREASING CAPE AND LI ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF A 140KT UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300 AND PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES BY TUE 12Z. IF THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...THEN STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR WX WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE CAVEAT IS A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH TYPICALLY WINS OUT ACROSS S TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...DRIER AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DVLP BY TUE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME ELEVATED TO CRITICAL ON TUE. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE BY WED/WED NIGHT. THEN WARMER THU AHD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SOMETIME FRI OR SATURDAY...THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER MODEL. THERE ARE ALSO DISCREPANCIES AS TO PRECIP WITH THE LATE WEEK FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THIS LATER FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 85 61 76 62 / 20 20 30 20 30 VICTORIA 66 79 51 73 53 / 30 30 20 20 30 LAREDO 67 83 63 78 63 / 20 10 20 20 20 ALICE 68 87 60 77 63 / 20 20 30 20 30 ROCKPORT 66 76 58 72 60 / 20 20 30 20 30 COTULLA 65 80 54 75 56 / 30 10 20 20 20 KINGSVILLE 68 87 62 77 64 / 20 10 30 20 30 NAVY CORPUS 67 77 63 74 64 / 20 20 30 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM TE/81...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 190233 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 933 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK...PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS HOW MUCH STRATOCUMULUS WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND HOW FAR INLAND WILL IT PROGRESS. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS STEADILY EXPANDING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING WEST. USUALLY THE COLD JANUARY SHELF WATERS TEND TO DISSIPATE OR AT LEAST DISRUPT STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE...BUT GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL--UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S PER 1KM MODIS SEA SURFACE DATA--IT APPEARS A GOOD BIT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT AT LEAST THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL ADVECT...BUT GIVEN THE COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO PUSH MUCH BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE DOMINATING SKY CHARACTER WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF THICKER SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. THERE WILL BE A FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SINCE QUITE A BIT OF POLLEN AND SOME BLOOMING PLANTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED GIVEN THE NEARLY 10 DAYS OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW JUST OFFSHORE COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS APPROACHING THE GEORGIA COAST...THEY APPEAR OVERDONE GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. THEREFORE PLAN TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL LAND AREAS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ADVECTED ONSHORE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE TRAJECTORIES HAVE MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME...BUT PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS VALUES WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA...CAUSING THE EXISTING HIGH OVER THE REGION TO WEAKEN AND ANOTHER HIGH TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OFFSHORE WILL DISSIPATE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND IN OTHER SHELTERED LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE WARMER COAST. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME CIRRUS...BUT OVERALL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. A DOWNSLOPE/WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WELL INLAND WITH LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE MAY INDUCE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ACCORDING TO THE NAM...BUT ANY IMPACTS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEVELOPING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SOME...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD AIRMASS WILL MAKE WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH ADVANCES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS WILL APPROACH 60 DEGREES THURSDAY...THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE BY EARLY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT MARINE BASED STRATOCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE AFTER 09Z AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INITIATES OFFSHORE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. OPTED NOT TO INTRODUCE SUB-VFR CIGS WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED AT EITHER KSAV OR KCHS BETWEEN 09-15Z SATURDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTH. REPORTS FROM 41008 SUGGEST THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE CANCELLED. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN FLAGS FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE LINGERING 6 FEET SEAS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO THEN REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS BETWEEN 1-3 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG/COLD REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ ST  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 170942 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 442 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 RUC ANALYZED H850 TEMPS OF -23C ARE COMBINING WITH LAKE SUPERIOR WATER TEMPS IN THE 2-4C RANGE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OVER THE WEST EARLIER LAST NIGHT WERE VERY LIMITED ON SATELLITE...DUE TO THE DRIER LOW LEVEL UPSTREAM AIR SEEM ON THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING AND IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING STARTING TO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH HAS HELPED INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT ON SATELLITE. IN ADDITION...WITH WINDS STARTING TO BACK TO THE WEST AT H850...STARTING TO SEE SOME SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE CLOUD BANDS ON SATELLITE AND ALSO WITH THE STRONGER BAND NEAR DEERTON. IN ADDITION TO THE BAND SEEN ON RADAR NEAR DEERTON...THERE ARE HINTS ON BOTH THE KMQT AND CANADIAN RADAR OF A STRONGER BAND AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM JUST EAST OF GRAND MARAIS TO NEAR NEWBERRY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH CLOUD TEMPS OF -30C ON GOES/MODIS IR IMAGERY. WITH THE COLD H850 TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE. THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE WINDS AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE LAKE EFFECT WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH THIS BACKING WIND FIELD...EXPECT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO SEE THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND A STRONGER WNW-ESE ORIENTATED BAND SETTING UP NEAR MUNISING AND THEN THROUGH NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND TOWARDS SENEY. THE OTHER TWO BANDS THAT ARE HINTED AT ON RADAR/SATELLITE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO A SIMILAR SETUP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL TIME OUT WELL WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM JUST AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL RISING TO 8-10KFT. THE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE CLOUD ABOVE THE DGZ...SO DON/T EXPECT DENDRITES AND EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS TO BE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE TRADITIONAL 20-1 VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT. ALSO EXPECT THERE TO BE AN UPTICK IN THE LIMITED SNOWFALL THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTER FETCH AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THINGS LIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BAND OF SNOW BETWEEN THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND MASS CITY TODAY WITH THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE. DUE TO THIS EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE...WILL LEAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW TO TRANSITION BACK TO A NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT ...WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE LAST 6-12HRS. THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEST AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EAST. THEN AS WINDS BACK AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...EXPECT THE MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE CLIPPER...THE FAR WESTERN CWA WILL COME UNDER THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JET AND STRONG H850-700 WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A H850 TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST WAA AND MOISTURE AS IT/S NEARING THE CWA TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TOWARDS HIGH END CHANCE VALUES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR KIWD FROM 09-12Z. TEMPERATURES ARE ONE OF THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT STORIES. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE WEST...AND TO THE LOW-MID TEENS OVER THE EAST WITH THE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. IF OUR GOING HIGH FORECAST OF 8 IS CORRECT FOR OUR OFFICE...ALTHOUGH WE DID HIT 9 JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE THE FIRST SUB 10 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE SINCE JANUARY 20 2012. THAT WAS THE ONLY SUB 10 DEGREE HIGH LAST WINTER SEASON AND WAS THE CASE FOR MANY WESTERN CWA SITES. IN ADDITION...IF THE HIGH OF 7 IS CORRECT FOR KCMX...THAT WILL BE THEIR COLDEST HIGH SINCE FEBRUARY 11 2011. WITH THE COLD DAY TODAY...TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COLD...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM THE CLIPPER...COULD SEE SOME VALUES APPROACHING -10F OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL CWA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FRI MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -2C ALONG WI BORDER BY FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD /2-4 HR/ OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM HAS HEAVIEST PCPN DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT GIVEN THAT THE BEST WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...TEND TO LIKE THE GFS IDEA OF THE MODERATE PCPN MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE SREF AND REG GEM SUGGEST. THE GFS AND SREF MEAN SUGGEST AROUND 0.15 INCH OF PCPN FRI /PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER/...MUCH OF WHICH WILL OCCUR IN A SEVERAL HOUR BURST DURING THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IN THE BEING NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AROUND -13C IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AM THINKING THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE CLOSE TO 25:1. SO...A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WOULD NOT BE SURPISING FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS TO THE CATEGORICAL CATEGORY FOR THE REGION FRI. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AFTN AS THE BEST WARM ADVECTION MOVES N OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST THERMAL GRADIENT STAYS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A MIXTURE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER FRI AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE CLOUD LAYER STAYS ABOVE -10C. BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER AND LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EVEN BE TOUGHER TO COME BY...BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS A CHANCE. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF BEING FASTEST AND FURTHER SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. BEST MOISTURE STAYS LOCKED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE SNOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL LIKELY PICK UP BRIEFLY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTN. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS CLIPPER IS THAT IT WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -23C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP IN EARNEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT /AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK/. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PBL WIND DIRECTIONS SAT NIGHT AS THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST A MORE N-NW WIND DIRECTION DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT SNOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY MORE SO THAN THE MORE NW PBL FLOW FROM THE GFS. WITH THE EXTREME COLD AIR ALOFT...TEND TO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE A LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS MORE NNW. WILL THEREFORE RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY...BUT OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELTS. DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE MORE TEXTBOOK LAKE EFFECT REGIME TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED /SUNDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST. WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SOME PLACES FAVORED BY NW FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE CONSIDERABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK. FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN MORE W-NW BY TUE/WED WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS MORE SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW. THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD AIR MAY RELENT SLIGHTLY BY WED...BUT THE ECWMF AND GEM ACTUALLY SHOW A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TUE INTO WED. WILL LIKELY TREND COLDER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE ON WED. REGARDLESS...THE PERIOD OF COLD FOR SUN-TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST THE AREA HAS SEEN FOR A FEW YEARS WITH SOME INTERIOR WEST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO SEE HIGHS ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY. IN FACT...CIPS ANALOG PROBABILITIES OF SFC TEMPS BELOW -10F EARLY NEXT WEEK IS GREATER THAN 70 PCT ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND PROBABILITY WIND CHILL VALUES LESS THAN -30F IS ALSO GREATER THAN 60 PCT. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WITH THE LACK OF SNOW ESPECIALLY INLAND WE COULD SEE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BURST PIPES ETC. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 KIWD...MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES WILL PREVAIL IN A NW TO W FLOW. MVFR CIGS COULD SCT OUT THU EVENING. KCMX...MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THU MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER NW WINDS KICK UP SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO REDUCE VSBY. EXPECT VSBY TO IMPROVE AGAIN TO MVFR LATE THU AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THE AREA. KSAW...BEST VIS AND CIGS SHOULD BE AT SAW WHERE NW WINDS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AWAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONGER WNW WINDS ALLOW LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU EVENING AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND BEGIN TO BACK MORE WRLY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WINDS TONIGHT AND THEY WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 25KTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVE THROUGH. BEHIND THE SECOND LOW...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES TO 35KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KTS WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WITH THE COLD AIR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007- 085. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 151748 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1148 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013 .UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY CLIP THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 LOOK ON TRACK...GIVEN MIXING UP TO 925MB...WITH TEMPERATURES THERE OF AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MAY SEE A GUST TO TWO TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY...AS EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. LEFT CEILINGS VFR FOR NOW DUE TO MODEST CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE ANY CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10Z TO 21Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN SO ON WEDNESDAY...AS EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. PASSING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING SPRAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH GOES SOUNDER SHOWING VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GTLAKES WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW TWO TENTHS INCH. MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAK SHEAR VORT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK...THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A TIME TODAY...WITH THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S MOST AREAS. UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY GETS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SPREADS INTO NORTHWEST WI AFT MIDNIGHT. SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING FORCING AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS LINGERING THRU LATE TNGT...SO WL REMOVE SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO LEVELS AS COLD AS THIS MRNG. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH...WITH 850 THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE CWA MIDDAY...THEN COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THAT LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEAD WAVE/WAA COMBO GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS NRN CWA...GLANCING SHOT WITH BETTER POPS TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THAT EXITS TO THE EAST MIDDAY OR SO...THEN SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING. NAM DRY WITH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF. GUIDANCE POPS QUITE LOW. MOISTURE PROFILES VARY WITH GFS LOOKING TOO MOIST. NAM SHOWS ONLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NO QPF. WILL MENTION FLURRIES FOR NOW DURING THE EVENING WITHIN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM QUIET DAY WITH INCREASING NVA AND SURFACE RIDGING WORKING IN. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF SWATH WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP PRECIP WELL NORTHWEST. MAY JUST RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY. DECENT MODERATION IN 925 TEMPS FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THIS AND ALSO MIXED SIGNALS ON PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF POTENT CLIPPERS. 00Z ECMWF SHOWING ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH SERVING TO OPEN THE GATES TO THE ARCTIC INFLUX. A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY WILL BE SEEING SOME 925 TEMPS DOWN IN THE MINUS MID 20S. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY. EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC CDFNT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST WI. TAF SITES WILL APPROACH LLWS CRITERIA BY 12Z/16. MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S BY THE SHORE TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI AND THE WESTERN GTLAKES. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MI SFC TEMPS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 33 KTS LOOK MORE LIKELY WED MRNG...SO WL UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING AND EXTEND INTO THE MID AFTN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL BE AWAY FROM 2 TO 5 MILES FROM SHORE...AND BEYOND. SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 150924 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 324 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH GOES SOUNDER SHOWING VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GTLAKES WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW TWO TENTHS INCH. MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAK SHEAR VORT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK...THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A TIME TODAY...WITH THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S MOST AREAS. UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY GETS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SPREADS INTO NORTHWEST WI AFT MIDNIGHT. SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING FORCING AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS LINGERING THRU LATE TNGT...SO WL REMOVE SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO LEVELS AS COLD AS THIS MRNG. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH...WITH 850 THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE CWA MIDDAY...THEN COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THAT LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEAD WAVE/WAA COMBO GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS NRN CWA...GLANCING SHOT WITH BETTER POPS TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THAT EXITS TO THE EAST MIDDAY OR SO...THEN SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING. NAM DRY WITH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF. GUIDANCE POPS QUITE LOW. MOISTURE PROFILES VARY WITH GFS LOOKING TOO MOIST. NAM SHOWS ONLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NO QPF. WILL MENTION FLURRIES FOR NOW DURING THE EVENING WITHIN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM QUIET DAY WITH INCREASING NVA AND SURFACE RIDGING WORKING IN. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF SWATH WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP PRECIP WELL NORTHWEST. MAY JUST RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY. DECENT MODERATION IN 925 TEMPS FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THIS AND ALSO MIXED SIGNALS ON PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF POTENT CLIPPERS. 00Z ECMWF SHOWING ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH SERVING TO OPEN THE GATES TO THE ARCTIC INFLUX. A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY WILL BE SEEING SOME 925 TEMPS DOWN IN THE MINUS MID 20S. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY. EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC CDFNT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST WI. TAF SITES WILL APPROACH LLWS CRITERIA BY 12Z/16. && .MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S BY THE SHORE TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI AND THE WESTERN GTLAKES. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MI SFC TEMPS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 33 KTS LOOK MORE LIKELY WED MRNG...SO WL UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING AND EXTEND INTO THE MID AFTN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL BE AWAY FROM 2 TO 5 MILES FROM SHORE...AND BEYOND. SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 021431 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1031 AM AST WED JAN 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER. && .DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA INDICATE VERY DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH PWAT DROPPING LESS THAN AN INCH AND H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE ORDER OF 20-25C. DO NOT SEE ANY CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY BASED ON THIS AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TODAY SAVED FOR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX NEXT FIVE DAYS. && .MARINE...NORTH SWELLS HAVE PEAKED AND ARE NOW ON THEIR WAY DOWN BUT STILL REMAIN AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS. BY 00Z TONIGHT...SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD SHOULD COME DOWN SUFFICIENTLY TO REDUCE THE RISK OF SIG BREAKING WAVE ACTION AND RIP CURRENT. && .FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW IN A LOT OF PLACES TO POSE A FIRE RISK BASED ON AHPS DEFICITS...KBDI VALUES AND MODIS IMAGERY. VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS WILL POSE A FIRE RISK TODAY. SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THU AND FRI BUT THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN SAT AND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DRY OUT FUELS FURTHER. && .CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...2012 ENDED AS THE FOURTH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.6F DEGS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 76.0F DEGS. THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS IN 1983 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 82.4F DEGS. DEC 2012 ALSO ENDED AS THE NINTH WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 79.4F DEGS. THE WARMEST DEC ON RECORD WAS IN 1980 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 80.7F DEGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 83 72 83 73 / 0 20 30 20 STT 85 74 85 75 / 0 20 20 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CULEBRA- MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR. VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS. COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ 64/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 292321 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 621 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2012 ...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS... .SYNOPSIS... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND PERSIST IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF HUDSON BAY CANADA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...USHERING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ALREADY SEEING SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES OCCUR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AS WELL AS NORTHERN GEORGIA WHERE A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS INITIATING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL IN TURN EXPEDITE THE CLEARING PROCESS. EARLY EVENING SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW A RATHER LARGE CLEARING AREA STEADILY EXPANDING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS. ADJUSTED THE SKY FORECAST TO MATCH EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS FROM AROUND 30 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST LOOK REASONABLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S BY EARLY SUNDAY. LAKE WINDS...EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KT LATER THIS EVENING AS A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS. WAVES OF 1-2 FT WILL OCCUR... HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LARGE AND PROMINENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DEEP DRY AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND CLEAR DAY/NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN COOL HIGH TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 50S. WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS A RESULT A STRENGTHENING 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OUR THE DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DRY MORNING AND POPS INCREASING INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK FAIRLY ACTIVE DUE TO A PLETHORA OF UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE BROAD EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. A WEAK FRONT SHOULD REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NUMEROUS SURFACE WAVES RIDING ALONG IT. WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING YIELDING CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHEST WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THROUGH 06Z. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING...IT APPEARS SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE RELATIVE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOKS WELL PLACED...BUT OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM ARE LOCATED. YESTERDAY/S 1KM MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA INDICATED WATER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S AROUND 20 NM TO THE LOWER 70S BEYOND 40 NM. RUC AND H3R BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECAST SUGGEST WINDS COULD EASILY REACH SOLID GALES OF 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE OUTER HALF OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONES WHERE THE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR MORE INTENSE VERTICAL MIXING. OBSERVATIONS FROM 41004 WERE ALREADY GUSTING NEAR 35 KT AT 29/22Z SO THINK A GALE WARNING IS CERTAINLY WARRANTED ATTM AS WINDS INCREASE FURTHER. WILL WORD THE HIGHEST WINDS BEYOND 40 NM IN BOTH THE GALE WARNING ITSELF AND THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH 9 FT OFFSHORE...BUT WILL ACTUALLY SUBSIDE A BIT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW INTENSIFIES. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ELEVATED SEAS AND STRONG NW WINDS AS THE WATERS ARE CAUGHT IN THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN. THINGS WILL THEN BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT MAY PUSH WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FT OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS BY TUESDAY. A STRONGER SURGE WILL OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ045. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352- 354. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...ST SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM...BSH AVIATION...ST MARINE...ST  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 282011 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 311 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...MORE BENEFICIAL RAINS TO FALL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... OVERVIEW...MID-AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...1006MB LOW PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNDERNEATH THE SAID BAROCLINIC LEAF. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST--MORE TYPICAL OF A CLASSIC MILLER TYPE-B SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SHOW A COASTAL TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT FORMING ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LINK UP WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT CENTER AROUND RAIN CHANCES AND PINNING DOWN LOW TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES...IT LOOKS TO BE A WET LATE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OPENS UP AND EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. DEEP LAYERED OMEGA WITHIN A VERY MOIST COLUMN FEATURING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINS MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINS SETTING UP WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH A RIBBON OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WILL STILL FALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS HEAVY. IT DOES APPEAR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE SURGE OF STRONGEST LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WILL SHOW POPS ONLY 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH SUNRISE...INCREASING RAPIDLY TO 80-100 PERCENT AFTER 2-3 AM...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NAM/GFS AND ECWMF ALL SHOW SHOWALTER VALUES GOING NEGATIVE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS THE GREATEST. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT ON. GIVEN THE ELEVATED WIND FIELDS ALOFT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT DO FORM COULD BRING SOME BRIEF/GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES...PINNING DOWN LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WILL LIKELY LINGER...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS DROP OFF. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO STEADY OUT AND EVEN RISE BY LATE EVENING AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. LOWS LOOKS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND WITH LOWER-MID 50S COAST. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT AFTER RISING OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LIKELY FALL SOME AS RAIN BEGINS TO FALL. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS--SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT--MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING ONCE CLOUDS AND THERMAL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AND TRACKING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW AND ACCUMULATING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING BY MID MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER NEAR THE COAST. A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL MEAN BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. IT WILL BE CLEAR...BRISK AND CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. MANY INLAND LOCALES SHOULD HIT THE FREEZING MARK BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE COLD START AND LINGERING CHILLY AIRMASS. SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH MANY INLAND LOCALES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. MONDAY WILL BE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO COASTAL AREAS. LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL PICK UP ON LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FAVOR A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES INEVITABLY ABOUND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE GENERALLY HAVE SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING EARLY SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET INITIATING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 08-09Z. THE RISK FOR LLWS WILL LINGER UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE ROUGHLY 14-15Z. A WELL DEFINED RAIN BAND WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH RAIN REACHING THE TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 09Z. LIMITED CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE SPACIAL/TEMPORAL UNKNOWNS THIS FAR OUT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING TO ENSUE ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES TAKE HOLD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS TODAY...BUT HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE SOLIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND RAPIDLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LINKS UP WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL JETTING BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 950MB WINDS REACHING 50 KT BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL LIMIT MIXING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND. WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS WATER TEMPERATURE DATA INDICATE THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM FEATURING 70+ DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURES IMPINGES IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE ZONE TO WITHIN 45-50 NM FROM SHORE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE VIGOROUS MIXING TO OCCUR IN THIS AREA WITH DATA SUPPORTING MARGINAL GALES. GIVEN THESE MORE FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ONLY AFFECT ABOUT 10 NM OF THE MUCH LARGER ZONE...WILL LIMIT CONDITIONS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FOR NOW. WILL CALL FOR WINDS 20-25 KT...EXCEPT 25-30 KT BEYOND 40 NM. WW4 OUTPUT LOOKS A BIT HIGH WITH THE GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NOT TAKING THE POOR MIXING PROFILES INTO ACCOUNT. EXPECT SEAS TO MAX OUT 3-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...POSSIBLY REACHING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED/GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE WITH EVEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. ADVISORIES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES THROUGH THEN. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ ST/RJB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KGSP 221949 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 249 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL SETTLE IN ON FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 2 PM...TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MTNS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED...WITH VALUES COMMON IN THE 50S EAST OF THE MTNS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS...RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO L20S. I WILL KEEP A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE NC PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...AND EAST FACING SLOPES UNTIL 6 PM. RECENT GOES...AND ONE MODIS...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED A THIN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NC MTNS. AREA WEB CAMS THAT INSOLATION HAS MELTED THE SNOW ON ROADS...PARKING LOTS...AND SIDEWALKS. CLEAR SKY COVER...DECREASING WINDS...AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY COOLING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A WEAK INVERSE LAPSE RATES. BY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE L20S WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE RIDGES...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHES OF BLACK ICE WHERE MELT WATER REMAINS ON THE ROAD. I WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE AREAS WITH SNOW COVER. ON SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE ARKLATX REGION...SUPPORTING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MILD LLVL THICKNESSES AND MORNING INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNRISE. A BLEND OF MOS INDICATES THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO U50S EAST. DEWPOINTS MAY RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON SW WINDS...BUT RH VALUES MAY REMAIN AROUND CRITICAL VALUES DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM THE ARKLATX LOW. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIFT WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER STRONG LLVL WARM ADVECTION. THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND UKMET ALL HAVE WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NAM IS A LITTLE DRIER...THOUGH THE SREF ALSO HAS CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF I-40. I/VE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SRN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS AN INCREASE FROM WHAT WE HAD BEFORE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS I/D IMAGINE IT/S STILL A LITTLE TOO LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME COOL AND DRY AIR TRAPPED IN THE NC MTN VALLEYS AT THE START OF THE PCPN EVENT MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARM H8 TEMPS AND SKIES CLOUDING UP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...I DON/T SEE WET-BULBS BEING LOW ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN ON MONDAY. THE MAV MOS IS COOLER ON MONDAY OWING TO THE HEAVIER PCPN IN THAT MODEL...AND THAT/S WHAT I USED IN THE GRIDS...ALBEIT WITH A FEW TWEAKS. THE SFC FRONT IS LIKELY TO HANG UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. I/M NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WE/LL ACTUALLY SEE...ESPECIALLY DOWN ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND NE GA. I DID GO WITH A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CLEARING IS NOT HIGH. ON TUESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM LOOKS TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE AND I/VE SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECWMF WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 MB DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN THE NAM. PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE MUCH TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN. THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT CROSSES THE FA WELL AHEAD OF THE WAVE TUE AFTN. THIS IS CAUSING QUITE A SPREAD IN THE ONSET TIME OF PCPN IN THE MODELS. I/VE GONE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME OF THE NEIGHBORS...BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WE CAN EEK OUT A DRY CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH THIS PATTERN. EVEN WITH A MILD AIRMASS...THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS AROUND NORMAL LEVEL FOR THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 110 PM SATURDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF A MILLER B SCENARIO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEGINNING CHRISTMAS EVENING. WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE HIGH IN AN UNFAVORABLE LOCATION FOR CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING... WINTRY WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES IN RESPONSE TO IN SITU CAD DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TEMPS COULD DROP TO/BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT AFTER PRECIP ONSET...AND BECOME LOCKED THERE FOR A FEW HOURS...AS IS SOMETIMES THE CASE WITH IN SITU EVENTS. A MENTION OF -FZRA WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS A VERY SMALL PORTION OF THE CWFA WED MORNING (MAINLY THE NRN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS). PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE AREA BY WED EVENING...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE SCT/NUMEROUS ACCUMULATING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A TRANSITION TO A MORE PHASED/HIGH AMPLIFIED FLOW IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A MAJOR/PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND SMALL POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS OUR AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THERMAL PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...IF LIGHT PRECIP BEGINS AS EARLY AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE...ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAFS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A LEE TROF WAS LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. THE TROF WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WSW WINDS EAST OF THE MTNS...WITH NNW WINDS AT KAVL AND KHKY. KHKY SHOULD BACK TO WSW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD FAVOR VALUES BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. KAVL MAY REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL WINDS DECOUPLE TOWARD SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...A BROAD PRESSURE FIELD IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE LEE TROF...WINDS WILL BECOME AND REMAIN LIGHT TO VARIABLE TO CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED SUNDAY...SPEEDS WILL FAVOR VALUES NEAR 5 KTS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ON MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER...STRONGER...SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM && .FIRE WEATHER... OWING TO THE LACK OF WIND ON SUNDAY WE ARE NOT PLANNING TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ANY PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS OR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AND IN THE CASE OF NE GA...WHERE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CAN BE ISSUED JUST BASED ON MINIMUM RH AND FUELS...THE RH VALUES ARE NOT PREDICTED TO FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PAT NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...MCAVOY LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...NED FIRE WEATHER...MCAVOY  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 181050 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 450 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE H5 RIDGE WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY AS THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KICK OFF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLE WITH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PEAKING AROUND 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ALOFT...AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE SIERRA MADRE...WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS FOR TONIGHT WITH ANY FOG ISSUES. PROFILE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR ALOFT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 MPH WITH SOME MIXING MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. AM THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR LATE IN THE NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH ALSO BEGINS TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING CAP. ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CAPPING. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. && .MARINE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOP SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT AS WELL AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS FROM BEEVILLE TO REFUGIO WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS PROG AN UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS/TX WED NGT/EARLY THU. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE LIMITED MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND WILL NOT FCST PCPN (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PCPN.) EXPECT AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. THE 00Z TUE CYCLE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG 30-35KT/30KT/25KT MAX SFC WIND OVER THE WATERS EARLY THU. THE NAM 40-50KT 925MB WIND/NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (LAPSE RATES NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE AT LEAST 75F SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS PER MODIS SST COMPOSITE) ADDS CREDENCE TO THE 30-35KT SOLN. YET WILL FCST 25-30KT SUSTAINED WIND BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC WIND. WIND/RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTN. NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE PSBL OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY OWING TO EXPECTATION OF LIMITED CLOUD COVER/LGT WIND/VERY LOW SFC DEW POINTS. DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DEPICTS A TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL/WEAK AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BY SATURDAY...CONDUSIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW/WARMING TREND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT/ DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CWA/MSA DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...NOT YET PCPN. (THE ECMWF/GFS PROG THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 85 66 86 54 61 / 0 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 80 61 80 47 59 / 0 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 86 66 92 51 62 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 86 66 87 52 63 / 0 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 77 67 78 52 59 / 0 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 86 61 86 45 61 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 84 67 86 54 63 / 0 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 78 68 79 55 60 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 161035 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 435 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. A 500MB TROUGH EXITING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO FINALLY PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE...HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WEST OF HIGHWAY 16 WHERE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FIRST. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIMITED AS MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OUT OVER THE WATERS BY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SKIES CLEAR MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...MOVING ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES/SWRN CONUS WEDNESDAY...ACRS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE THURSDAY/ FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE MOMENTUM TUESDAY (SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW NOTWITHSTANDING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED (CONSISTENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES/SOUNDING PROFILES) AND THUS NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTN...ESP OVER THE ERN CWA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE... ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (GFS 1000-500MB 546DAM THICKNESS INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY THURSDAY/RECENT SST VALUES ABOVE 70F OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BASED ON 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) EXPECT MIN TEMP READINGS IN THE 30S FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 81 60 80 48 79 / 40 20 10 10 0 VICTORIA 79 52 77 43 77 / 60 20 10 10 0 LAREDO 77 54 77 49 80 / 10 0 0 10 0 ALICE 81 58 80 47 81 / 30 10 10 10 0 ROCKPORT 76 60 75 52 72 / 60 20 10 10 0 COTULLA 75 48 76 42 80 / 10 0 0 10 0 KINGSVILLE 81 59 80 49 80 / 30 20 10 10 0 NAVY CORPUS 74 63 75 54 73 / 40 20 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ RG/82...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 151016 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 416 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF TX...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SRN TX AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA OWING TO INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT MSTR/PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...BASED ON ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K LEVEL (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...WL FCST ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE ERN CWA/MSA. FURTHER...THE NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE ERN CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT SFC WIND MAY RESULT IN FOG. SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY/MSTR SUGGESTS ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION YET CONFINED TO THE ERN CWA/MSA. NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE SUNDAY AFTN (BASED ON LOW BRN VALUES.) && .MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OWING TO SEAS NEAR 7FT. (SFC WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SCEC CATEGORY TODAY.) ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS DRG MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NAM DETERMINISTIC DEW POINTS MAY EXCEED SST VALUES OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (MODIS SST COMPOSITE) SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AREAS OF SEA FOG TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. YET UNSURE WHETHER VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH DENSE FOG ADVSY CRITERION. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HELP BRING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING A STRONGER FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY AS ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE LOOKS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MUCH DIRER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 80 68 82 56 79 / 30 20 30 30 10 VICTORIA 78 64 79 49 75 / 30 30 50 20 10 LAREDO 80 64 81 54 77 / 10 10 10 10 0 ALICE 81 65 83 54 78 / 20 20 30 20 10 ROCKPORT 73 67 76 57 75 / 30 20 40 30 10 COTULLA 78 62 79 48 77 / 20 10 10 10 0 KINGSVILLE 81 65 83 54 78 / 20 20 30 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 74 69 76 60 75 / 30 20 30 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RG/82...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 032159 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 359 PM CST MON DEC 3 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL DRY COLUMN OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1 INCH...VIA THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY AS A S/SW FLOW AT H85 CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE MIDLEVELS. MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH CLEARING SKIES...THE REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET. THE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOG POSSIBILITY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A MOIST SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. DID ADD IN MENTION OF SEA FOG FOR THE NORTHERN BAYS WERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH WATERS TEMPS SIMILAR AS THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A BULK OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...OVER THE WATERS...TUESDAY MORNING. AND WITH INSTABILITY AND DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AM STILL EXPECTING STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY AREAS EAST OF PORT ARANSAS. DIDBACK OFF ON GOING FURTHER INLAND WITH POPS AS DEEP MOISTURE DOES NOT EXIST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON...H85 WINDS CONTINUE TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CREATING A CAP. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...MIDLEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH MOISTURE POOLING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING THE PWATS TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA...REACHING AND STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TUES...AND EXITING THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED. WITH THE CAPPING...THINKING THAT MOST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED...AND AM EXPECTING THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS ENDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDUCIVE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW/INCREASING NEAR SFC MSTR. GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT NEAR SFC MSTR WL RETURN TO THE CWA/MSA BY EARLY THURSDAY. ANTICIAPTE AT LEAST PATCHY RADIATION FOG OVER THE CWA DRG THE APROXIMATELY 06-14Z PERIOD COMMENCING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG SFC DEW POINTS TO APPROACH/EXCEED SST VALUES (2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE) OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SAT/SUN. WL INTRODUCE PATCHY ADVECTION FOG FOR THE (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN) BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SAT/SUN. GFS PWAT VALUES OVER THE CWA INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2IN BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GFS MSTR/CIN/CAPE PATTERNS SUGGEST NOCTURAL ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY YET NO SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. AFTER FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE TRANSITION TO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE. WL DEFER TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH MOVES A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA MONDAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT YET RESRICTED TO THE ERN CWA/MSA. FURTHER...FCSTG MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS MONDAY THAN THE GFS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 65 83 61 78 59 / 10 20 20 10 10 VICTORIA 63 81 57 76 56 / 10 30 20 10 10 LAREDO 65 85 63 78 59 / 10 10 20 10 10 ALICE 63 85 60 79 58 / 10 20 20 10 10 ROCKPORT 67 77 61 74 62 / 10 20 20 10 10 COTULLA 63 83 59 76 55 / 10 10 20 10 10 KINGSVILLE 63 84 60 78 59 / 10 20 20 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 70 80 62 73 62 / 10 20 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 012151 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 351 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL CWA. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL (WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE TX REGION.) THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA (IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.) ANTICIPATE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WHEN CONSIDERING THE NAM SOUNDINGS. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS SUGGEST DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND THUS WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN. HWR...GREATER MSTR EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD NOCTURAL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER 06Z MONDAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. && .MARINE...NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND/MODIS 2-KM SST COMPOSITE SUGGEST THAT SFC WIND COULD APPROACH SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. YET WILL RESTRICT TO SCEC OWING TO UNCERTAINTY/ SURROUNDING OFFICES. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN BEST CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE GULF WATERS. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR STREAMER SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND COUNTIES. PATCHY FOG THAT MORNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A S/SW FLOW AT H85 WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN REACH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DID ADD IN AN ADDITIONAL NIGHT FOR PATCHY FOG FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LIMITED TO THE SURFACE...AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH MOST DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ATTRIBUTE TO LOW- AND MID-LEVELS WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK CONCERNING WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE COLD FRONT. THE PAST RUN FINALLY HAD THE EUROPEAN PICKING UP ON A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS WHAT PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD BEEN DOING. HOWEVER FOR THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FRONT WHILE THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH. FOR NOW...WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING AT A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER FOR PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 65 82 64 83 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 64 80 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 69 84 63 85 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 64 84 61 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 66 77 65 77 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 65 83 60 83 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 65 84 63 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 67 77 67 79 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 302139 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 339 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED DRG THE 00-03Z SAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND CWA OWING TO WEAK SEA BREEZE/LIMITED CIN/SUFFICIENT CAPE/RECENT TREND IN PCPN. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT A QUASI- ZONAL UPPER PATTERN (500MB) WILL OCCUR DRG THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS... ANTICIPATE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OWING TO SIGNIFICANT NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/20KT 925MB WIND. (SCEC NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING COOLER SST VALUES PER 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) ANTICIPATE NOCTURAL ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT (CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS AND REASONABLE CONSIDERING PWAT VALUES/NAM CIN AND CAPE PATTERNS.) NAM/GFS TIME-HEIGHT/ SOUNDING/PWAT OUTPUT INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SAT. YET... WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SAT AFTN OVER THE ERN CWA (CONSISTENT WITH GFS OUTPUT.) && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN OVERALL QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND BRING SCT/BKN CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE STRONGEST WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND ONLY BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND BRING JUST A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WOULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF IT EARLY IN THE WEEK. WILL ONLY BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BACK FOR THURSDAY. COULD SEE OUR NEXT FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 81 65 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 63 79 60 82 59 / 20 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 67 84 66 83 64 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 66 84 63 85 60 / 20 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 66 77 66 80 64 / 20 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 63 82 63 82 60 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 66 83 63 84 60 / 20 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 68 77 68 78 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RG/82...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 292126 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 326 PM CST THU NOV 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...A CLOUD DECK AROUND 4-5KFT REMAINS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT MOISTENING TREND TO CONTINUE AND WILL MAINTAIN A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE THE 500MB DISTURBANCES PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THUS...RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY NIGHT. BACK TO TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH THE INCREASING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND THUS...A SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GREATER MSTR EXPECTED SATURDAY (AS OPPOSED TO TODAY) MAY RESULT IN ISOLD NOCTURNAL COASTAL AND DIURNAL SEA BREEZE (BAYS/NEARSHORE SST VALUES 68-70F PER 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE VERSUS 80S EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST) CONVECTION SAT. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EXCEPT FOR A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACRS THE NRN CONUS SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO TX. HWR...THE ECMWF/GFS PROG A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE (SOUTH OF THE MAIN TROUGH) TO MOVE ACRS TX/SRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY (THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) YET...THE CORRESPONDING SFC BOUNDARY WL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTN (IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING MSTR/INSTABILITY...WL FCST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FOR TUESDAY. WL NOT FCST PCPN WED CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE. WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 82 64 83 64 / 20 20 10 20 10 VICTORIA 57 79 60 81 59 / 20 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 63 83 66 83 66 / 10 10 0 10 10 ALICE 61 83 62 85 63 / 10 10 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 64 77 64 79 64 / 20 20 20 20 10 COTULLA 60 82 62 82 62 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 61 82 62 83 62 / 20 10 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 66 77 66 79 65 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ RG/82...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 252129 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 329 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST IMPACT FROM AREA WEATHER WILL BE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD MIX OUT THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. SW FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE MAY AID IN PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE INFLUX TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 60S ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA AND APPROACH 60S ALONG RIO GRANDE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY SEA FOG FOR NORTHERN BAYS AND WATERWAYS AS SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED TO 66 TO 68 DEGREES F /PER MODIS IMAGERY/ AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS...PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEA FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MARINE AREAS TONIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. MONDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE SKIRTS THROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS /MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY BECOME THICK IN THE AFTERNOON/. WARM H9 TO H8 TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLE APPROACHING 90 ACROSS SOME INLAND LOCATIONS IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE. A SURFACE TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAID LOCALE. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME DPVA WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO A STRONG VORT MAX IN THE H5 LAYER MOVING EAST AS A S/W TROUGH. H25 LEVEL PLACES CWA IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH. INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE PROG TO EXIST. HAVE INCREASED POPS NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. CAPE VALUES ARE PROG TO BE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -8 AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES MAY ALLOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. FRONT SHOULD ENTER NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE. ONLY CAVEAT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WOULD BE IF LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE SWRLY RATHER THAN BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY ENDING MUCH OF THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE TERRESTRIAL AREAS...WITH LINGERING ISOLD TO SCT PRECIPITATION OVER THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 70S SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH INCREASED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IN CONCERT WITH ATTENDING COASTAL TROUGH...WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THURSDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ON WEST SIDE OF COASTAL TROF. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WITH LINGERING COASTAL TROF AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 85 60 72 50 / 10 10 50 20 10 VICTORIA 61 84 55 68 43 / 10 10 50 10 10 LAREDO 61 89 59 71 52 / 0 10 10 10 0 ALICE 63 87 59 71 47 / 10 10 50 10 0 ROCKPORT 67 82 60 69 51 / 10 10 60 20 10 COTULLA 58 84 54 69 46 / 0 10 10 10 0 KINGSVILLE 62 86 61 72 50 / 10 10 50 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 67 81 63 71 55 / 10 10 60 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ HART/79...SHORT TERM CORDERO/70...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 241031 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 431 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK UPGLIDE LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND DOWNGLIDE COMMENCE. A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND CAA...KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THE TRAPPED MOISTURE MAY HINDER LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S. DEVELOPING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. GRADUAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH AS SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW DEVELOPS. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUASI-ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN (IGNORING THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT APPEARS IN THE EMCWF/GFS THURSDAY OVER THE TX REGION AS THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLE MEAN BARELY REVEALS IT.) IN ADVANCE OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW/MSTR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE FOR NOCTURAL ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND AFTN ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA. FURTHER...INCREASING ONSHORE MOMENTUM ALOFT/NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. (SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OWING TO COOLER NEAR 70F SST VALUES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON MODIS 2-KM SST COMPOSITE.) IN RESPONSE TO THE PLAINS SYSTEM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. MSTR CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (AT LEAST SCEC WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE). AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL... ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG SOMEWHAT MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE NOCTURAL AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. (ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THUNDER FRIDAY AFTN WHEN CONSIDERING GFS CAPE MAGNITUDES.) && .MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH THE INCREASED WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 50 77 61 79 / 10 10 10 10 20 VICTORIA 66 45 75 58 80 / 10 10 10 10 20 LAREDO 69 56 79 57 82 / 10 0 10 10 10 ALICE 68 51 79 59 83 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 67 52 74 64 76 / 10 10 10 20 20 COTULLA 68 49 76 56 81 / 10 0 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 68 50 78 60 83 / 10 10 10 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 67 56 74 64 76 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KGGW 162110 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SEASONALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT EITHER ZONAL OR TURNED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER TROUGH NUDGING UP TO THE PAC-NW COAST WILL SEND RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EAST WHICH WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL REGION ON SUNDAY...NOT QUITE MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY 18Z MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE SNOW-PACK TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA. THE ONLY AREA WERE BARE GROUND IS APPEARING IS SOUTHERN PATCHES OF PETROLEUM AND JORDAN COUNTIES. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODIFIED BY THE ALBEDO OF THE SNOW. TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW UNDERCUTS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS DRY. HOWEVER THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LIMIT FOG FORMATION. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...850MB AND 700MB WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL TWEAK UP THICKNESS HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THE WARMER START AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL NUDGE TMAX A BIT WARMER. SUNDAY...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH IT BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES AGAIN INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SCT .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR CWA WILL FIND ITSELF IN ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS CONSISTENCY BRINGING IN SOME PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION IN PLACE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS OUR CWA. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH CONTINUING SNOW MELT ANTICIPATE THAT A WARM UP IS IN ORDER. SOME SNOW COVER LINGERING IN THE NORTH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THE 40S IN THE NORTH WITH 50S BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE HIGHEST 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS REACH AS HIGH AS 11 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR SIDNEY TO SCOBEY. EVEN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES APPROACH 10 DEGREES AT 850MB BUT DUE TO SNOW COVER IT WILL BE HARDER TO WARM UP AS MUCH THERE. SO HAVE KEPT WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE MID 40S IN AREAS SUCH AS PLENTYWOOD AND POPLAR. MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND WITH A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CWA THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION AND SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE HERE WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING PRECIPITATION PART OF THE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS DGEX AND GEM ALL ARE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND USHERING IN SOME ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES SOME THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TRENDS. REGARDLESS... EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND MEANING ANY COOL DOWN WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MALIAWCO/GILCHRIST && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR. A MID AND HIGH LEVEL BKN-OVC CEILING CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KGDV AND KSDY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 06 KTS. SOME PATCHY IFR FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. GILCHRIST/MALIAWCO && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KGGW 160321 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 821 PM MST THU NOV 15 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTH A LITTLE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS PROBABLY CAUSED BY DIFFERENTIAL SNOW COVER. MODIS SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW HAS MELTED IN SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE SNOW COVER IS STILL SIGNIFICANT TO THE NORTH. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AS SOME LOCAL AREAS HAVE OBSERVED VISIBILITY BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE. MARTIN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS BELOW 2500 FEET. THE 12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION HOLDING OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THINK THAT MOST OF THE WARMING WILL RIDE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR...KEEPING THE COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO COOL VALLEY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MILK AND MISSOURI RIVERS. WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO BECOME FILTERED BY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CWA ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REBOUND NICELY AND EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 40 DEGREES IN THE NORTH. THE 12Z NAM BRINGS THE 850MB 8 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINNETT TO CIRCLE. AS A RESULT OF THIS POSSIBLE WARMING IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EXPERIENCE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S...EVEN WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP SO HAVE KEPT LOWS HIGHER AND FEEL THAT FOG WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ON SATURDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY SO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE AND A HIGH TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT TAKING PLACE BY THIS TIME AND SOME INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FEEL THAT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. MALIAWCO/GILCHRIST .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER A RIDGE. A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDS A PACIFIC STORM AND COLD FRONT NUDGING INTO THE PAC-NW. THE STORM SENDS A TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DIVIDE AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE BECOMES WEAKENED BY THE TIME IT GETS OVER THE PRAIRIE. THE GFS AND EC DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS DOES BRING IN A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF LOW ROTATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE PAC-NW AROUND MID-WEEK. THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. BUT SOMETIME AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THE NEXT FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION TO BRING A BETTER SHOT OF MOISTURE. WITH THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES THE AREA CAN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN WITH RAIN THAT COULD TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE WEEKEND. HOLIDAY TRAVEL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE INTERFERED WITH IF THERE IS A WINTRY MIX. TEMPERATURES OVERALL...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH COOL NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN NEAR NORMAL THEN TREND WARMER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK. THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER AROUND THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO UPDATE POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS AND EC MODELS. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO THE WASHINGTON OREGON COASTLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA WHERE IT WILL BE RUNG OUT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SOME THIS MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND MIGHT POSSIBLE MAKE IT TO OUR SW ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID. EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA WILL JUST SEE CLOUD COVER AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF AND SEEMS TO PUSH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. DECIDED TO ADD POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING LEVELS OF QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN MONTANA. THERE IS A HINT OF SOMETHING COMING UP DAY 8 AND DAY 8 NIGHT WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF. THEY ARE ALL HINTING AT THE UPPER TROUGH BEING PUSHED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE SHALLOW TROUGH LIKE FEATURE WHEN IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SUB ZERO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE GFS/GEM HAVE THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN WYOMING. SO WITH THIS IN MIND I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND PUT IN A WINTRY MIX FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RSMITH && .AVIATION... VFR THROUGH ROUGHLY 1000Z THEN FREEZING FOG WILL GENERATE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR KGGW AND KOLF. AN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MOISTURE CLOSE TO THE GROUND FROM MELTING SNOW COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING IN CLOUD COVER BY FRIDAY EVENING...MINIMIZING THE CHANCE FOR FOG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. GAH/SCT && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 160318 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 918 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012 .DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO BE REINFORCED SOMEWHAT OVER THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE PLAINS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BASED ON NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT/NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925MB WIND/2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE. NAM/GFS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRATIFORM RAINFALL WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SRN CWA/MSA AND THUS WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PCPN FCST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW. AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED -RA TO KALI AND KCRP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z (GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS). WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLRD...MOST LOCATION SHOULD CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE CLOUD DECK LOWERS SOME. FOR KLRD...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE THAT AS PREVAILING AFTER 06Z. WITH ALL THAT SAID...GENERALLY LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS LIFT AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TAPPER OFF AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE EAST THEN ENDING AROUND 15Z OUT WEST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THIS ALL NIGHT...HOWEVER THE VICTORIA AREA WILL BE A CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN AS THE CLEARING LINE MAY PUSH BACK INTO THAT AREA AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THERE WITH TEMPS DECREASING A BIT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR AS LAST NIGHT. THERE IS DEFINITELY THE POTENTIAL THOUGH THAT THIS AREA CLEARS AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. NOT GOING TO GO THAT EXTREME THOUGH. THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...MAINLY WEST. PRETTY GOOD UPGLIDE SETS UP ON THE 300K SFC AND EVEN MORE ON THE 295K SFC...THIS BEING BETWEEN 800 AND 900 MB...LINING UP WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE REGION. CURRENTLY THOUGH...DPT DEPRESSIONS WEST ARE STILL AROUND 20 DEGREES...SO WILL NEED TO OVERCOME THIS. WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING LIKELY IN THE LAYER EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S DESPITE THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT AROUND LAREDO...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS UNDER 20...NAM 40 TO 50)...AND QPF NUMBERS ONLY EXPECTED AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS IT IS...WILL STICK WITH THE 30 POPS SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...COULD SEE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN LINGER FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THINK EVERYONE WILL BE DRY BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TEMPS FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN THE LOWER 70S WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY. WESTERN AREAS PROBABLY WONT WARM ABOVE THE MID 60S (SIMILAR TO TODAY). BY FRIDAY NIGHT STRATUS DECK SHOULD BE THINNING AND WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DECREASE MORE THAN TONIGHT. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN AN EXTENDED PACKAGE OFTEN DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN TIME WHEN THE FORECAST ACTUALLY OCCURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER NOW...AS MODELS ARE FLIPPING/CHANGING WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE AND TIMING OR STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEMS. SURFACE HIGH FINALLY MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND MOISTURE/ONSHORE FLOW RESUME. DO NOT THINK MUCH FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING A JET STREAK IMPACTING AREA LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY (MAY END BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT SINCE POPS ALREADY THERE WILL MAINTAIN). WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY (NO RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY)...THEN MODELS DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF MOISTURE AND UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF KEEPS MORE MORE TO THE WEST (WETTER ON 00Z RUN)...GFS VERY WET. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE WEST...WITH THE NOTION THAT SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TEMPERATURES MOVE LITTLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 TO MID 80S AND LOWS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY MID WEEK. NOT MUCH IN WINDS INITIALLY...THEN WINDS INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE FORECAST AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 57 69 51 72 59 / 20 20 10 10 10 VICTORIA 49 69 42 70 46 / 10 10 10 0 10 LAREDO 56 63 55 69 61 / 30 30 10 10 10 ALICE 55 67 48 72 57 / 20 20 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 58 70 55 71 58 / 10 10 10 0 10 COTULLA 54 65 48 67 55 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 56 67 49 72 57 / 20 20 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 60 69 57 70 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 152053 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 253 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012 .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND SORT OF WASH OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT...APPARENT IN THE 925MB TEMPERATURE CONTOURS...WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE A LITTLE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS FRONT. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THIS LAYER OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 4000 FEET. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0 TO -1C NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE COLD FRONT FRI MORNING. 19Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SHOWS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S OR 9C. THE LAKE-AIR TEMP DIFFERENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER WITHIN THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING DOWN. ONE DISCOURAGING FACT FOR THIS QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE IS THE VERY CLEAR SKIES IN MN AND NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...OPTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CLOUD LAYER TO BE ABOUT 2KFT TO 3KFT THICK...SO EXPECT IT TO SCATTER AWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MIXING AS THE FRONT GETS INTO NORTHERN IL AND WASHES OUT. CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT MAX TEMPS FRIDAY...SO KEPT THEM CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND UPPER 40S WELL INLAND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW IN PLACE. 925 TEMPS WILL REACH 5-6C SATURDAY AND WARM TO NEAR 8C ON SUNDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE INTO THE AREA. QPF LOOKS LIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WITH RESULTING TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM GFS QUICKER WITH SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF WI WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. MEANWHILE ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP TO THE EAST THOUGH LINGERING 925/850 RH DUE TO SLOWER AND WEAKER LOOK TO SURFACE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SWIFT WEST/EAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE ECMWF WITH SLIGHTLY MORE OF A RIDGE LOOK TO THE GFS. BEST ENERGY/MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A FROPA THOUGH IT LOOKS DRY AND FAIRLY WEAK. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONTINUED ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS. ANY DISTURBANCES ARE NORTH OR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT PRECIP ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ATMOSPHERE/LACK OF ANY MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN THE LAKE AND IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR IFR/FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE INLAND TO AT LEAST SHEBOYGAN AND WAUKESHA AND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKESHORE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FRIDAY. CEILINGS AT EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON...AS THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE VERY THICK. MADISON SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INLAND BY MID FRI MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON CEILING HEIGHTS...BUT EXPECTING MVFR RATHER THAN IFR. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NNE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE LAKE. MAX WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WAVES EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 4 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 121022 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 322 AM MST MON NOV 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ARE PROVIDING TWO KEY INGREDIENTS FOR COLD TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER AS OF 3 AM WINDS STILL HAVE NOT DECOUPLED ENOUGH IN MANY AREAS. SOME RECORDS ARE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SITES HOWEVER UNLESS THE THIRD CRITICAL ELEMENT OF LIGHT WINDS TAKES SHAPE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN ABOVE RECORD TERRITORY. THE E PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY AS MUCH AS 10F HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS HOUR SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. DESPITE THESE FACTORS IT IS STILL VERY COLD FOR MID NOVEMBER. THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS...PERIODIC CLOUD COVER...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. LOW LEVEL INVERSION EFFECTS WILL MAKE FOR SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AS VALLEY LOCALES MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN MID SLOPE AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TUESDAY. AN AREA OF SNOW COVER VISIBLE ON THE 1741Z MODIS RGB SNOW PRODUCT SUNDAY WILL CORRESPOND TO THE COLDEST TEMPS THRU THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TIL SNOW MELTS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY IS LOW. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVANCING NE OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TOWARD THE SW CONUS. GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND DATA SHOWS A 130-150 KT SUBTROPICAL JET WITHIN THIS CLOUD COVER. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE WAVE TRAIN IS BECOMING VERY ACTIVE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC AND QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WELL. OPERATIONAL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL OF THESE FEATURES SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHALLENGES AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS N AND CENTRAL NM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING SNEAKS IN. AFTN HIGH TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND TODAY AND ACCELERATING SOME TUE AS NM WILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY THOUGH STILL A GOOD 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...EVEN A BIT MORE ACROSS REMAINING LOWER TERRAIN SNOW COVERED AREAS IN THE WEST...BUT CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS TUE EXCEPT IN THE LATTER MENTIONED AREA. VENTILATION POOR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DUE TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SFC AND ALOFT AND MORN INVERSIONS BEING SLOWER TO BREAK. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY FROM E TO W TUE AND WED WITH SOME SFC LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...VENTILATION IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY INVERSIONS AND THUS WILL REMAIN POOR TO LOCALLY FAIR MOST AREAS. LOCALES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED DECENT WEEKEND SNOW WILL SEE LOCALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD RH RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT IF AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SNOW MANAGES TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 7 TO 15 PERCENT BOTH OF THE NEXT 2 AFTNS. WED TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARM TO NEAR AND A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY DROP BACK A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN E AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM BY FRI DUE TO WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT. VENTILATION FINALLY IMPROVES TO FAIR OR BETTER ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST FRI...BUT NOT SO GREAT IN EAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY FRI OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. 43 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT DRAINAGE OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 42 18 48 21 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 39 7 47 14 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 48 13 51 14 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 38 8 46 12 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 35 -1 41 5 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 39 15 49 16 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 39 16 45 21 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 58 16 63 19 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 39 17 43 21 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 27 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 45 22 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 15 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 38 18 41 17 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 19 44 17 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 44 12 50 14 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 47 18 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 44 14 53 17 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 47 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 20 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 29 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 27 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 24 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 23 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 45 19 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 47 23 55 25 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 54 22 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 24 48 29 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 45 22 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 12 55 16 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 24 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 53 22 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 49 27 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 43 24 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 46 15 57 18 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 47 16 58 20 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 46 20 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 47 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 44 21 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 52 25 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 52 24 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 54 27 63 27 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 52 27 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 53 26 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 51 25 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 56 27 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 55 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 52 28 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 102136 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 336 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC THAT THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE... CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CONUS (STREAMLINE DATA/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)...TO ENTER THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS IS PROGD TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA. YET...UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. CONCUR WITH THE FOREGOING DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THEN OFFSHORE. LOW CIN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES BELOW 1000J/KG SUNDAY MORNING RESTRICTED TO THE NERN CWA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVTIY THERE. INCREASING MSTR CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION YET CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. NAM BRN VALUES IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE SUNDAY AFTN/NGT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DRG THAT TIME PRIMARILY OVR THE ERN CWA. && .MARINE...EXPECT PREDOMINATE SCA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE WIND CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FROPA AFTER 06Z MONDAY... SCA CONDITIONS WILL RESUME...CONSISTENT WITH DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT (AND ALSO WHEN CONSIDERING 80F SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS PER 2-KM MODIS COMPOSITE SST COMBINED WITH CAA.) && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONLY CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING...IF ANY...WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A MORE POTENT WAVE (AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE)...WHILE GFS AND NAM ARE WEAKER. MEAN 1000-500MB MOISTURE FIELDS ARE 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWFA. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE DRY AS WEAK WAVES STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER PATTERN IS RATHER ZONAL. MOISTURE COMES BACK ENOUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SOME COASTAL SHOWERS COULD MOVE ONSHORE. FOR NOW...ONLY INCLUDED THE GULF WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...MUCH COOLER MONDAY...CONTINUED COOL TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP STARTING MID WEEK. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY MONDAY...LESS WIND TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE (EAST TO SOUTHEAST) FLOW NOT OCCURRING TIL THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEHIND FRONT MONDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE CONTINUED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 69 83 59 74 52 / 10 20 50 0 0 VICTORIA 67 83 54 72 41 / 10 30 60 0 0 LAREDO 70 88 54 73 51 / 10 10 10 0 0 ALICE 68 85 57 74 47 / 10 20 40 0 0 ROCKPORT 72 81 59 75 52 / 10 30 50 0 0 COTULLA 65 86 50 70 46 / 10 10 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 68 84 59 73 51 / 10 20 50 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 72 81 62 74 56 / 10 20 50 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM GW/86...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 091708 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1108 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012 .DISCUSSION...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (EXCEPT SCEC OVER THE NRN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING THE 2-KM MODIS COMPOSITE SST PATTERN) THROUGH 00Z SAT OWING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT FAR FROM DRY ADIABATIC COMBINED WITH NAM 20-25KT 925MB ONSHORE WIND. UNSURE WHETHER THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SRN CWA WL VERIFY...YET STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN 25KT SUSTAINED 925MB WIND (NAM DETERMINISTIC) COUPLED WITH VERTICAL MIXING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/ DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF'S. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LLWS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS UP TO AROUND 2K FT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 45 KNOTS OVER LRD TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. AT THE SFC...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 5 TO 12 KNOTS. BY MID MORNING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SFC WITH SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT GUSTING TO 35KT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER SUNSET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E TODAY AND SAT AS A POTENT LOW DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BE STRONGER IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW. AM EXPECTING WINDS ACROSS THE SRN CWA TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND COULD BE A REPEAT ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED THRU SAT AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY THIS MORNING OR TONIGHT...HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TODAY'S AND SAT'S HIGHS. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVG TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE GENERALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE SRN NEARSHORE AND SRN BAYS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL NOON AND AN SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT BY 9 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS S OF PORT ARANSAS. THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO REPEAT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS S TX TODAY. THE LOWEST MN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH RH BETWEEN 30-35 PERCENT. THE MN RH...STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED BE NEAR 40 PERCENT E OF HIGHWAY 281 TO AROUND 60 PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ONE LAST WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STREAMER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND NORTHEAST CWA. MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT...WITH THE FRONT NOW ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 3 AM. CAP DOES WEAKEN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT AND LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET STREAK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND MARINE ZONES. IN ADDITION...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION. BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-37. ACROSS THE FAR WEST CWA...LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY SLOTTING MAY PREVENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT... AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND). BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCA CONDITIONS OVER MARINES ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD BEEN INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. 00Z GFS IS STILL INDICATING THIS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OFF FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS SLOWER CARRYING IT EASTWARD. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS. SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 87 68 88 72 88 / 10 10 10 20 10 VICTORIA 85 64 84 68 84 / 10 10 10 20 30 LAREDO 90 68 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 89 66 89 70 90 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 81 70 84 74 84 / 10 10 10 30 20 COTULLA 87 64 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 88 67 88 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 83 72 83 74 84 / 10 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...WEBB. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 082120 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 320 PM CST THU NOV 8 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WEST COAST (BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON NAM/GFS 500MB STREAMLINE OUTPUT/MODEL INITIALIZATIONS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD (GFS DETERMINISTIC). A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. YET NO PCPN EXPECTED OVER THE CWA OWING TO THE SOMEWHAT DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (MOST RECENT GOES SOUNDER PWAT OUTPUT AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS.) GREATER ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANTICIPATE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA OWING IN PART TO VERTICAL MIXING OF GREATER MOMENTUM. WL USE PERSISTENCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OWING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NEAR SFC MSTR DRG THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS/WAVEWATCH INDICATE THAT SFC WIND WILL APPROACH 20KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. NOT SURPRISING WHEN CONSIDERING THE NAM 0-1KM LAPSE NOT FAR FROM DRY ADIABATIC WITH 20-25KT 925MB ONSHORE WIND. YET...THE 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT WITH READINGS AROUND 75F OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AROUND 80F OFFSHORE. THUS WL FCST 15-20KT WIND OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20KT OFFSHORE. THUS WL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF FCST WIND/MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES/FUEL DRYNESS MAP MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN. YET WL DEFER TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT OWING TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM AND WINDY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWEST CONS AND THEN APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THUS...THE WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVERT INTO THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AREAS OUT WEST COULD BECOME DRY SLOTTED ALOFT AND SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THIS...AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL WILD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK ONLY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF POSSIBLY OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 84 68 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 62 84 64 84 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 LAREDO 67 90 68 89 70 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 64 88 65 89 69 / 0 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 70 80 70 84 73 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 63 87 64 87 67 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 66 87 66 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 71 81 72 83 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RG/82...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KMLB 040749 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 245 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT...CLEAR SKIES AND NARROWING T/TD SPREADS HAS ALLOWED SOME MIST TO FORM ACROSS ECFL. MAIN CONCERN IS AREA OF THICKER STRATUS AND DENSE FOG COVERING A GOOK CHUNK OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PENINSULA. 3.9UM IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK LURKING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP NICELY ON SOME TIMELY 0358 AND 0633 UTC HIGH-RES MODIS IMAGES FURNISHED BY NASA/SPORT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SPREAD EAST/SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR LAKE AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT COUNTIES BEFORE SUNRISE. TODAY/TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL...TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER SUNNY/DRY DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES AND A LITTLE WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS - L80S EVERY BUT THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. CLEAR WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG (AND MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS) AGAIN TONIGHT. MINS IN THE U50S/L60S. MON-TUE...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...GENERATING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW QUICKLY PUSHES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON MONDAY...FORECAST TO STALL OUT DURING THE DAY. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES...SPINNING UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF TUE MORNING AND EJECTING THIS FEATURE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS BEING THE QUICKER/WEAKER OF THE TWO WITH THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS ON LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND PERHAPS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUES AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. HAVE CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUES NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ELECTION DAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS N FL/S GEORGIA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY NIGHT. TUES NIGHT LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. WED-FRI...DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WED-THURS BEHIND THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...THRU 13Z WE'LL PROBABLY DEALING WITH LIFR-VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FG/ST AT KLEE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST TO KISM-KMCO-KSFB IF CLOUD BANK SPREADS EAST. OTHERWISE VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z SUN NIGHT. && .MARINE...SUN-MON...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL OVER THE REGION WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. TUE-THU...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NE GULF AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OF THE STATE. SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS...PERHAPS CLOSER TO 20KTS IF THE STRONGER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE THE POST FRONTAL WINDS QUITE AS STRONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVE AND SWELL COMING IN FROM THE DEVELOPING GALE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-6FT OFFSHORE AND 3-5FT NEARSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. && .FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. DURATION/WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS FAR AS RFW ISSUANCE GOES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 60 78 59 / 0 10 20 30 MCO 83 60 81 59 / 0 10 20 20 MLB 80 61 79 61 / 0 10 10 20 VRB 80 59 80 60 / 0 0 10 10 LEE 83 61 81 59 / 0 10 20 30 SFB 82 61 81 60 / 0 10 20 30 ORL 83 62 81 61 / 0 10 20 20 FPR 79 59 79 59 / 0 0 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI LONG TERM....MOSES  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 262017 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 315 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAIN ISSUE IS PROGRESSION OF AND ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION OF LARGE CLOUD MASS FROM NRN IA THROUGH MN INTO NW WI. THIS CLOUD AREA HAS AN INCREASINGLY DIURNAL LOOK. SO NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST LONG OR MAKE MUCH HEADWAY INTO SRN WI. UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE CRUISING NE FROM KS AND NE. CHILLY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF INLAND MID 20S WITH L-M30S LAKESIDE/IN THE CITY. VORT TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST WITH BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING. A WEAK WAVE OR TWO ENCROACHES ON SRN WI THOUGH AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE QUITE PARCHED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. 925 TEMPS OF AROUND 0C SUGGEST HIGHS OF 43-46. .SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. MODIS MEASUREMENT FROM 16Z SHOWS AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND 11-12C ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI. HENCE EXPECT DELTA-T TO INCREASE TO AROUND 16C. 1000-850MB FLOW DOES TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DOES SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH. HOWEVER RH REMAINS SHALLOW AND MOSTLY BELOW 3K. FOR THIS REASON...WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR FLURRY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY SUN MRNG DURING TIME OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. FOR NOW WL GO WITH P/CLDY WORDING...BUT A PERIOD OF M/CLDY SKIES POSSIBLE SUN MRNG. OTHERWISE...MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING UPSTREAM SYSTEMS AS THEY BUMP UP INTO INCREASING RIDGING OVER WI AND WESTERN GTLAKES. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN POTENTIAL FOR FULL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. DETERMINISTIC ECMWF REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A FASTER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK...PUSHING INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE UKMT...GEMNH AND GFS90 REMAIN FARTHER EAST INITIALLY...WITH THE CENTER PUSHING ASHORE FARTHER NORTH ON TUE. DGEX CLOSER TO ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AS WELL. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER. HPC LEANING MORE ON ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH TAKES EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON FASTER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GTLAKES LATER TUE AND WED. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. 85H TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME RANGING FROM -2 TO -5C WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WINDS FLIRTING WITH NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. WITH DELTA-T RANGING FROM 12 TO 16C DURING THIS TIME...POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAY CARRY SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST FOR MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TIME PERIOD FROM TUE INTO WED...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FARTHER WEST TRACK INDICATED BY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD ALSO CARRY STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS WI DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...BUT DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...WL CONTAIN LOW POPS TO EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW. COLD AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...LARGE AREA OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INTO SOUTHERN WI. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST IT WILL NOT MAKE IT AS WELL. CIRRUS RIDING NORTHEAST FROM MO/SE IA WITH JET STREAK ROUNDING BROAD CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && .CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MEDIUM. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM. $$ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PC SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRB 241413 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 913 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012 .UPDATE... DENSE FOG WAS GRADUALLY RELEASING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE HEADLINE WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. TDH && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012... SYNOPSIS...WARM AND VERY MOIST TDA AND TNGT...THEN TURNING COLDER. LNGWV TROF OVER WRN NOAM WL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT E THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT WITH VERY BLOCKY PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATL...THE RIDGE OVER ERN NOAM WL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. THEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUE RIDGE WL BUILD NR THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE TROF/RIDGE COMBINATION OVER ERN NOAM BASICALLY EVOLVE INTO THE WRN LEG OF THE ATL BLOCK. WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA INTO THU...THEN TEMPS WL DROP BACK TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. STG COLD FRONT DRIVING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WL SUPPORT A SIG PCPN EVENT TNGT INTO THU...WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN AT MOST AFTER THAT. SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/THU. OVERALL...GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WL TWEAK THE POPS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING DYNAMICS...IT/S NOT AN AUTOMATIC THAT WE CAN DISMISS THE SVR THREAT JUST BECAUSE THIS IS LATE OCTOBER. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL WI FOR LATE THIS AFTN WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SVR POTENTIAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR. HODOGRAPH WAS SOMEWHAT LOOPED...THOUGH NOT AS SWEPT OUT AS IDEAL FOR TORNADIC STORMS. BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO BE A WORST- CASE OUTLIER. PROGGED SFC TEMPS WERE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO WARM. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS HAD WARMER TEMPS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE INSTABILITY. THAT CAP WAS TOTALLY ABSENT ON THE NAM. GIVEN SOME ISENT LIFT AND ADDED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTG INTO THE AREA...SOME CAPPING COULD BE OVERCOME. IT/S JUST NOT CLEAR IF THERE WL BE ENOUGH FORCING. PLUS...BACKING OF THE UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WL LIKELY CARRY CONVECTION THAT FIRES BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC NEWD MORE TOWARD N-C WI...WHERE THE ATM WON/T BE AS UNSTABLE. WL DETAIL CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE SVR RISK IN THE HWO. THE OVERALL SITN DESCRIBED ABV WL CONT INTO TNGT. STORMS WL SPREAD FARTHER N AND E OVERNIGHT. BUT THE ATM WL BE MORE STABLE THERE...SO SVR THREAT WL GENERALLY DECR TO THE N AND E...AND WITH TIME. STORMS MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO E-C WI UNTIL MID-DAY THU. CARRIED LOW POPS UP UNTIL THEN JUST IN CASE SOMETHING GETS GOING A LITTLE FARTHER E. SECOND SIG FCST ISSUE IS THE FG. DON/T QUITE HAVE THE WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBYS WE WERE EXPECTING. BUT STILL PLENTY OF OB SITES BLO 1SM. AND SINCE VSBYS TYPICALLY EDGE DOWN ARND DAYBREAK...WL LET THE ADVISORY RUN INTACT. LARGE SCALE ADVECTION WL DOMINATE TEMPERATURE CHGS THE NEXT 36 HRS. BUILT 3-HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BASED ON ROBUST BLEND OF GUID PRODUCTS...THEN TOOK MAX/MIN GRIDS FM THOSE. LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NEXT TUE. MAIN FCST ISSUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPR TROF FROM THE NRN/ CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF TO AN UPR LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF TO BE LEFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WHICH WL PROVIDE COOL/DRY AIR TO NE WI. THE MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AND BRING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN AROUND TUE. SINCE THE CDFNT TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION THU EVENING...WL NEED TO LINGER POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE THING THAT WL GET PEOPLE'S ATTENTION BY FRI MORNING IS THE COOL TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS DROPO TO AROUND -5C BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S N-CNTRL WI...MID 30S E-CNTRL WI. AN AREA OF HI PRES OVER THE PLAINS IS FCST TO EDGE EWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TOWARD WI ON FRI. PLENTY OF CAA IN PLAY WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -8C RANGE. THIS COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD CREATE ENUF INSTABILITY (STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES) TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPEMENT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO DEVELOP...BUT MORE CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS TO BE MORE NOVEMBER-LIKE WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGS NORTH...GENERALLY LWR TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI NGT WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR ON NW WINDS. MOST OF NE WI SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE NIGHT WITH TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC MAY VEER ENUF TO THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY BRING LK EFFECT CLOUDS INTO N-CNTRL WI AS WELL AS ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE. EVEN WITH SOME LK CLOUDS AROUND...IT WL STILL BE A COOL NGT OVER NE WI WITH MIN TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE MID 20S N-CNTRL... MID TO UPR 20S CNTRL...TO THE MID 30S NEAR LK MI. MDLS CONT TO SHOW AS THE HI PRES FINALLY REACHES THE GREAT LKS...IT IS FCST TO START WEAKENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE DEVELOPING CNTRL CONUS LONGWAVE TROF. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGS BLO NORMAL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...THIS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO HAVE REACHED THE GREAT LKS WITH A PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI. TYPICALLY...THERE WOULD BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS NW FLOW...BUT THE MDLS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DO EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER NEARBY...HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY WITH TEMPS COMPERABLE TO SAT. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD SWD FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS SUNDAY NGT INTO MON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RDG SETS UP...WL NEED TO WATCH LK EFFECT ALONG LK MI AS WINDS COULD TURN N-NE. IF THIS LK EFFECT DOES NOT OCCUR...DO NOT SEE ANY OTHER FEATURE THAT COULD TRIGGER ANY PCPN AS THE NEXT PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF TO STILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND NEXT MON WITH REGARDS TO THE MDLS GETTING A HANDLE ON THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM 'SANDY'. IF THIS SYSTEM GETS PULLED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...IT WL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS INCLUDING THE SHORTWAVE/ACCOMPANIED CDFNT HEADED TOWARD WI MON NGT/TUE. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS INTO THE FCST AREA ALTHO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MARINE...GLERL SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE ANALYSES AND MODIS STLT PASSES FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO INDICATED THAT COLDER WATER HAD UPWELLED JUST OFF THE KEWAUNEE/MANITOWOC COUNTY SHORELINE AREAS. WITH A SLY FLOW OF AIR WITH SFC DWPTS AOA 60F CONTG INTO THU... WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY...AT LEAST AT TIMES. SO WL RUN THE MARINE FG ADVISORY UNTIL THE SCHEDULED FROPA THU AFTN. SLY WINDS WL INCR TNGT. WAVES OVER THE LAKE SHOULD EASILY REACH SC.Y CRITERIA...AND WINDS MAY REACH AS WELL. WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THAT HEADLINE NOW TO KEEP FOCUS ON THE MORE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF THE DENSE FOG...BUT WL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED TO POST SC.Y. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VSYBS NOT QUITE AS UNIFORMLY LOW AS EXPECTED...BUT STILL PRETTY MUCH IFR AND BLO ACRS THE AREA. WL PROBABLY GET FOG TO THICKEN SOME ARND DAYBREAK. CONDITONS SHOULD IMPROVE FM S-N DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH IT WL BE A SLOW PROCESS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005- 010>013-018>021-030-031-035>039-045-048-049-073-074. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ022-040-050. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRB 240856 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 356 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND VERY MOIST TDA AND TNGT...THEN TURNING COLDER. LNGWV TROF OVER WRN NOAM WL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT E THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT WITH VERY BLOCKY PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATL...THE RIDGE OVER ERN NOAM WL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. THEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUE RIDGE WL BUILD NR THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE TROF/RIDGE COMBINATION OVER ERN NOAM BASICALLY EVOLVE INTO THE WRN LEG OF THE ATL BLOCK. WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA INTO THU...THEN TEMPS WL DROP BACK TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. STG COLD FRONT DRIVING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WL SUPPORT A SIG PCPN EVENT TNGT INTO THU...WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN AT MOST AFTER THAT. && .SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/THU. OVERALL...GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WL TWEAK THE POPS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING DYNAMICS...IT/S NOT AN AUTOMATIC THAT WE CAN DISMISS THE SVR THREAT JUST BECAUSE THIS IS LATE OCTOBER. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL WI FOR LATE THIS AFTN WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SVR POTENTIAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR. HODOGRAPH WAS SOMEWHAT LOOPED...THOUGH NOT AS SWEPT OUT AS IDEAL FOR TORNADIC STORMS. BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO BE A WORST- CASE OUTLIER. PROGGED SFC TEMPS WERE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO WARM. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS HAD WARMER TEMPS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE INSTABILITY. THAT CAP WAS TOTALLY ABSENT ON THE NAM. GIVEN SOME ISENT LIFT AND ADDED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTG INTO THE AREA...SOME CAPPING COULD BE OVERCOME. IT/S JUST NOT CLEAR IF THERE WL BE ENOUGH FORCING. PLUS...BACKING OF THE UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WL LIKELY CARRY CONVECTION THAT FIRES BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC NEWD MORE TOWARD N-C WI...WHERE THE ATM WON/T BE AS UNSTABLE. WL DETAIL CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE SVR RISK IN THE HWO. THE OVERALL SITN DESCRIBED ABV WL CONT INTO TNGT. STORMS WL SPREAD FARTHER N AND E OVERNIGHT. BUT THE ATM WL BE MORE STABLE THERE...SO SVR THREAT WL GENERALLY DECR TO THE N AND E...AND WITH TIME. STORMS MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO E-C WI UNTIL MID-DAY THU. CARRIED LOW POPS UP UNTIL THEN JUST IN CASE SOMETHING GETS GOING A LITTLE FARTHER E. SECOND SIG FCST ISSUE IS THE FG. DON/T QUITE HAVE THE WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBYS WE WERE EXPECTING. BUT STILL PLENTY OF OB SITES BLO 1SM. AND SINCE VSBYS TYPICALLY EDGE DOWN ARND DAYBREAK...WL LET THE ADVISORY RUN INTACT. LARGE SCALE ADVECTION WL DOMINATE TEMPERATURE CHGS THE NEXT 36 HRS. BUILT 3-HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BASED ON ROBUST BLEND OF GUID PRODUCTS...THEN TOOK MAX/MIN GRIDS FM THOSE. .LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NEXT TUE. MAIN FCST ISSUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPR TROF FROM THE NRN/ CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF TO AN UPR LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF TO BE LEFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WHICH WL PROVIDE COOL/DRY AIR TO NE WI. THE MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AND BRING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN AROUND TUE. SINCE THE CDFNT TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION THU EVENING...WL NEED TO LINGER POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE THING THAT WL GET PEOPLE'S ATTENTION BY FRI MORNING IS THE COOL TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS DROPO TO AROUND -5C BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S N-CNTRL WI...MID 30S E-CNTRL WI. AN AREA OF HI PRES OVER THE PLAINS IS FCST TO EDGE EWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TOWARD WI ON FRI. PLENTY OF CAA IN PLAY WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -8C RANGE. THIS COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD CREATE ENUF INSTABILITY (STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES) TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPEMENT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO DEVELOP...BUT MORE CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS TO BE MORE NOVEMBER-LIKE WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGS NORTH...GENERALLY LWR TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI NGT WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR ON NW WINDS. MOST OF NE WI SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE NIGHT WITH TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC MAY VEER ENUF TO THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY BRING LK EFFECT CLOUDS INTO N-CNTRL WI AS WELL AS ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE. EVEN WITH SOME LK CLOUDS AROUND...IT WL STILL BE A COOL NGT OVER NE WI WITH MIN TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE MID 20S N-CNTRL... MID TO UPR 20S CNTRL...TO THE MID 30S NEAR LK MI. MDLS CONT TO SHOW AS THE HI PRES FINALLY REACHES THE GREAT LKS...IT IS FCST TO START WEAKENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE DEVELOPING CNTRL CONUS LONGWAVE TROF. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGS BLO NORMAL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...THIS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO HAVE REACHED THE GREAT LKS WITH A PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI. TYPICALLY...THERE WOULD BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS NW FLOW...BUT THE MDLS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DO EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER NEARBY...HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY WITH TEMPS COMPERABLE TO SAT. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD SWD FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS SUNDAY NGT INTO MON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RDG SETS UP...WL NEED TO WATCH LK EFFECT ALONG LK MI AS WINDS COULD TURN N-NE. IF THIS LK EFFECT DOES NOT OCCUR...DO NOT SEE ANY OTHER FEATURE THAT COULD TRIGGER ANY PCPN AS THE NEXT PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF TO STILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND NEXT MON WITH REGARDS TO THE MDLS GETTING A HANDLE ON THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM 'SANDY'. IF THIS SYSTEM GETS PULLED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...IT WL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS INCLUDING THE SHORTWAVE/ACCOMPANIED CDFNT HEADED TOWARD WI MON NGT/TUE. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS INTO THE FCST AREA ALTHO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VSYBS NOT QUITE AS UNIFORMLY LOW AS EXPECTED...BUT STILL PRETTY MUCH IFR AND BLO ACRS THE AREA. WL PROBABLY GET FOG TO THICKEN SOME ARND DAYBREAK. CONDITONS SHOULD IMPROVE FM S-N DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH IT WL BE A SLOW PROCESS. && .MARINE...GLERL SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE ANALYSES AND MODIS STLT PASSES FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO INDICATED THAT COLDER WATER HAD UPWELLED JUST OFF THE KEWAUNEE/MANITOWOC COUNTY SHORELINE AREAS. WITH A SLY FLOW OF AIR WITH SFC DWPTS AOA 60F CONTG INTO THU... WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY...AT LEAST AT TIMES. SO WL RUN THE MARINE FG ADVISORY UNTIL THE SCHEDULED FROPA THU AFTN. SLY WINDS WL INCR TNGT. WAVES OVER THE LAKE SHOULD EASILY REACH SC.Y CRITERIA...AND WINDS MAY REACH AS WELL. WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THAT HEADLINE NOW TO KEEP FOCUS ON THE MORE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF THE DENSE FOG...BUT WL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED TO POST SC.Y. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005- 010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ SKOWRONSKI/KALLAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 232114 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 314 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... ONE MORE WARM DAY ON WED THEN MUCH COOLER...COLDER THU AND FRI. STRONG WINDS LATER TON THROUGH WED NIGHT OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO GENERATE DECENT SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO LAS VEGAS AND RATON...AS WELL AS FROM MORIARTY TO TUCUMCARI. MODIS RGB AIRMASS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION CONTINUING OVER NE NM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ALL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN...WITH A RECORD HIGH ALREADY IN RATON. WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP EARLY TONIGHT ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN TOPS AND PLOW DOWN THE E SLOPES ONTO THE NE HIGHLANDS EARLY WED. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS WED. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN TOP ZONES AND E SLOPES...RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA FOR LATE TON THROUGH WED AND FOR THE CNTRL... NE AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS WED AM THROUGH WED PM. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY WED WILL BE THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MANY NEAR RECORD OR RECORD BREAKING HIGHS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SANGRES WED NIGHT AND INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY ADVISORY LEVELS. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TO OUR N WED NIGHT WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS WRN NM AND A POLAR FRONT SLAMMING INTO THE NE PART OF THE STATE. THE TWO WILL COMBINE TO BRING MUCH COOLER...COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THU...INCLUDING NEARLY 40 DEGREES COLDER AT CLAYTON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY THU. CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE STATE THU NIGHT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NE. ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. IT WILL BE CHILLY ON FRI WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT IN THE SW. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRI NIGHT. THE WEEKEND WILL START CHILLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ESPECIALLY ON SUN. IT WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NOT TOO MUCH WIND. CHJ && .FIRE WEATHER... LOCALIZED AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SANDIAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. THE CONDITIONS WILL LESSEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN BUT RETURN AND EXPAND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN RESULT OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW AND MOST LIKELY PROVIDE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UPPER WIND FLOW IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BUFFET THE HIGHER PEAKS...ESPECIALLY WITH WESTERLY EXPOSURE. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THAT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE MODEST AT BEST EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE GOOD RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUSION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HUMIDITIES FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST FROM THE MODEL AS WELL AS INCREASED MECHANICAL MIXING...LOWERED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE LEVELS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE HUMIDITY READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THESE LOWER HUMIDITIES COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. THIS WILL BE COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE TO NEAR RECORD LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HAINES VALUES WILL BE A SMATTERING OF 4 TO 5/S SO NOT A CLASSIC SPRING CASE BY ANY MEANS. REGARDLESS...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE FOUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE ACTUAL MOUNTAIN AREAS FOUND WITHIN THE SANDIA/MANZANOS AS WELL AS SANGRES. MODELS DO SHOW THE PEAK WINDS ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE FLOW TURNS FROM A WEST/SOUTHWEST TO A WEST/NORTHWEST AND ULTIMATELY NORTHWESTERLY. THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN WIND ENVELOPE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND AFFECT THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO THE EAST AS STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION IS SURE TO MATERIALIZE. A VERY STRONG TROUGH INDUCED PACIFIC MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE AND CONSIDERABLY DROP DEWPOINTS. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I40. RECOVERIES AS A RESULT WILL BE PRETTY POOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO POOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME GOOD RECOVERIES AS THE WIND SHIFTS DIRECTION THERE. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. PERHAPS MORE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THE PACIFIC DRY SLOT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AND SAG SOUTHWARD BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING HUMIDITY READINGS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE MORE EASTERLY WIND THERE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. ESPECIALLY AS MIXING HEIGHTS DROP PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY. MUCH MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG. THE WIND GRADIENT RELAXES SOME FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE BUT WILL BE SLOWER DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR. SUN ANGLE IS CERTAINLY LESSENING. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF CLEARER SKIES...DECREASING WIND AND THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. VENTILATION WILL CERTAINLY TAKE A HIT DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SOME ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS PROMISING FOR RX BURNS BASED ON THE FLOW PATTERN PROJECTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. FAIRLY MODEST WIND ALOFT UNDER A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. VENTILATION SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY AS IT CONCERNS MAX RATES. ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS PROJECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS WOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF IT SIMILAR TO THIS LAST ONE. MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND ON THE INTENSITY AND TIMING SO CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY DEGRADES THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 50 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE WIND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOKING FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT AT GUP...LVS AND TCC AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER WIND FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS IS WHEN ALL TERMINAL SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT AND MOST LIKELY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF. SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE MOS GUIDANCE AT ABQ/SAF ON WEDNESDAY SO HOPE TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 41 69 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 28 67 25 53 / 0 5 5 5 CUBA............................ 37 70 30 57 / 0 0 5 0 GALLUP.......................... 34 68 24 58 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 33 68 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 37 71 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 40 72 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 39 77 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 31 63 28 49 / 0 5 5 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 70 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 44 68 38 53 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 68 34 54 / 0 5 5 5 RED RIVER....................... 34 60 27 44 / 0 5 5 5 ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 64 26 47 / 0 0 5 5 TAOS............................ 35 68 29 56 / 0 0 5 5 MORA............................ 44 69 37 52 / 0 0 5 5 ESPANOLA........................ 38 74 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 42 71 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 74 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 74 43 62 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 76 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 78 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 78 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 42 79 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 47 77 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 48 84 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 72 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 46 73 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 74 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 74 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 77 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 47 80 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 47 75 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 42 77 33 43 / 0 0 5 5 RATON........................... 40 80 35 46 / 0 0 5 5 SPRINGER........................ 43 80 35 52 / 0 0 5 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 46 78 38 57 / 0 0 0 5 CLAYTON......................... 50 86 37 48 / 0 0 5 5 ROY............................. 48 82 39 48 / 0 0 0 5 CONCHAS......................... 51 87 42 57 / 0 0 0 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 50 85 44 63 / 0 0 0 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 53 92 45 59 / 0 0 0 5 CLOVIS.......................... 51 89 47 63 / 0 0 0 5 PORTALES........................ 50 89 47 66 / 0 0 0 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 51 91 47 68 / 0 0 0 5 ROSWELL......................... 51 94 50 76 / 0 0 0 5 PICACHO......................... 49 86 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 50 79 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-527. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-528-529. && $$ 40/50  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 230936 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 336 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH NEAR RECORD AND SOME RECORD BREAKING HIGHS...PARTICULARLY EAST..AND INCREASING WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN A BIG CHANGE TO COOLER/COLDER WEATHER. PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE VERY PALTRY THOUGH AND LIMITED MAINLY TO THE NE QUARTER... THAT MAINLY DURING THE THU NIGHT TO FRI PERIOD. WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. SFC WINDS WILL BE UP A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 MPH ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE MOUNTAINTOPS TONIGHT. EVEN WARMER IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A NUMBER OF RECORD HIGHS LIKELY. WINDS TO BE HIGHER STILL WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY ADVISORY LEVEL...OR NEARLY SO...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NE THIRD OR SO OF NM...BUT STILL TOO CLOSE TO THE MARGINAL RANGE TO CONSIDER MORE THAN 24 HRS OUT. LOOKING AT MODIS RGB AIR MASS H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY GOING ON OVER TO A SLIGHT DISTANCE E OF SANGRES...BUT WHILE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO MUCH OF A PROB. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR TWO MOVING THROUGH A LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC AND POLAR FRONTS...WILL THEN IMPACT NM WED NIGHT AND THU. TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST AND ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER IN THE NW. A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL BRING EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SADLY...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH PRECIPITATION COMBINING WITH THE COLDER AIR. A LITTLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS LOWER TERRAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH A CHILLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED SOME WARMING FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER. 43 && .FIRE WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...A FEW HOURS OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST PLAINS ACROSS SAN MIGUEL AND MORA COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN PATTERN EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD PATTERN FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. CIRCULATION ABOUT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY. WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND SHEAR RAPIDLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO NORTHWEST TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK. WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGING IN BRINGING NEXT SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO NEW MEXICO. GFS MODEL FASTER TO BRING WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH ECMWF RUNNING ABOUT 36 HOURS LATER FOR TROUGH PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP EYE ON RUNS TO FOLLOW AND SEEK BETTER CONSENSUS. FOR TODAY...WARMING AND DRYING CONTINUING WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO NEAR 10 PCT IN THE EAST. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND PRODUCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITIES OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR ACROSS SAN MIGUEL AND MORA COUNTIES...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNSET AS HUMIDITIES RECOVER. TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TYPICAL FOR THE WEST. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH ONLY FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS BASE OF DIGGING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 10 PCT OVER THE AREA...AND BROAD AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 25 EASTWARD...AND INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO. WILL HOIST FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER. LITTLE CHANGE TO NEAR RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST...RUNNING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST. NO VENTILATION PROBLEMS. MAINLY FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SWINGING RAPIDLY EAST AND SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF FAST MOVING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A 20 TO 30 DEGREE DROP OVER THE EAST...WITH MORE MODEST DECREASES IN THE WEST. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BOOST EASTERN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS IN THE TEENS PCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH WILL MAKE MAJOR SWING FROM THE HEAT TO 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. DETERIORATING VENTILATION CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE SUMMITS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL SET UP FREEZES OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST...FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE WEST. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...BROAD WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. A VERY CHILLY FRIDAY OVERNIGHT SHOULD DELIVER HARD FREEZES TO MOST ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LAST OF THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND SOME SNOW WORKING OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GENERAL DRYING TREND UNDERWAY WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BACK INTO THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL...WITH TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST. MARGINAL VENTILATION CONDITIONS FRIDAY IMPROVING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING POOR OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHY && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. LCL GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM NEAR KRTN SOUTH TO NEAR KLVS. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR KGUP AND FROM KLVS...KCQC TO KTCC...WHERE GUSTS TO 35KTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 73 39 70 32 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 68 28 67 26 / 0 0 5 5 CUBA............................ 70 37 69 31 / 0 0 0 5 GALLUP.......................... 71 36 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 69 34 67 26 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 73 38 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 72 41 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 78 39 77 34 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 64 31 62 29 / 5 0 5 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 46 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 68 43 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 38 67 34 / 0 0 5 5 RED RIVER....................... 61 34 59 29 / 0 0 5 5 ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 35 63 28 / 0 0 0 5 TAOS............................ 69 34 68 30 / 0 0 0 5 MORA............................ 70 43 69 37 / 0 0 0 5 ESPANOLA........................ 74 39 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 71 42 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 43 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 48 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 51 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 46 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 48 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 78 45 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 76 48 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 82 49 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 46 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 72 47 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 40 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 44 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 47 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 79 48 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 73 49 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 77 42 77 35 / 0 0 0 5 RATON........................... 80 39 80 35 / 0 0 0 5 SPRINGER........................ 81 42 79 35 / 0 0 0 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 77 43 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 85 49 83 36 / 0 0 0 5 ROY............................. 81 47 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 86 50 85 42 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 84 50 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 88 52 89 45 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 86 51 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 86 50 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 87 51 89 47 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 90 53 93 50 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 86 50 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 79 52 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. && $$ 43  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 220830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GOES SOUNDER INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALREADY DOUBLED IN LAST 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER SOUTHERN WI. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OUT WEST CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA...AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PRODUCING INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SW IA/NRN MO. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAUGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING LIFT TO CONVECTION. PER IR IMAGERY SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM FROM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NE AREA. DESPITE WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS MORNING...WAVE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM MID-MRNG THRU THE AFTN. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO SRN WI...WL CONTINUE T MENTION. MUCAPES MAY REACH 1000 J IN THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND COOL NEARSHORE LAKE MI WATERS. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA SHOULD STILL TRIGGER SCT TO NUMEROUS -SHRA FOR A TIME...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WL CONTINUE SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOUTH LATER TNGT AS LOW LEVEL JET GETS REENERGIZED JUST TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FOG AND MAYBE DENSE FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS SHOW WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN MOVING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN SHOWING A LOT OF ELEVATED AND MEAN LAYER CAPE VERSUS THE GFS SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES OF THE GFS SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE A MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...WITHIN WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME. WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE WARM FRONT THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LINGERS THERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING OF SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH NAM SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOWING A LOT OF MEAN LAYER AND ELEVATED CAPE. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WILL TRY TO GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE CAPPED. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSE FOCUSES...WITH SOME FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CAP WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AS WELL. ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH 70S FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...SOME POSSIBLY DENSE...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. .THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...AS STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS IN PLACE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF FRONT DURING THE DAY ALSO HELPS WITH SEVERE CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. TRAILING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL POPS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS OF IFR OR LOWER FOR MOST OF TNGT. DENSE FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP. && .MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER THROUGH TUESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER LAKE MI. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE DENSE FOG THREAT. WARM...MOIST AIR EXPECTED TO SURGE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND BUOY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS THE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE MID LAKE TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE SHALLOWER WATERS. DEWPOINTS WL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. HENCE THIS MILD MOIST AIR WOULD BE COOLED OVER THE LAKE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ADVECTION DENSE FOG. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PULL THE 50-55 DEGREE WATER INTO THE NEARSHORE AREAS...REDUCING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SO FOR NOW WL MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATE TNGT BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVY. COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS MAY RESULT IN MORE ELY SFC WINDS FOR A TIME LATER TODAY AND TNGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 090620 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 220 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EARLY AM RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW BAND OF -SHRA TRAINING OVR LANCASTER CO...COINCIDENT WITH AXIS OF MDL 8-7H FGEN FORCING...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE BY ARND 12Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SE ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOLDING TEMPS UP. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO ARND FREEZING ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES AT 05Z. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ARND DAWN SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...IT/S A CLOSE CALL AS TO HOW COLD TEMPS GET. CURRENTLY BELIEVE PATCHY FROST WITH MINS IN THE M30S SHOULD DO IT ACROSS THE LAURELS. FURTHER EAST...LITTLE RISK OF FROST...AS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY. WHERE SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS WARREN CO AT 04Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... ANY -SHRA ACROSS LANCASTER CO SHOULD BE ENDING BY ARND 12Z...AS SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE. CLEARING SKIES WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN PA. DON/T EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPS...AS SUNSHINE HELPS WARM THE NORMALLY COOLER W MTNS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXCELLENT MDL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF GRT LKS TROF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM AND ASSOC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVR THE N MTNS. WED NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN...MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUNNY/DRY WX THURSDAY...WHEN ALL MDL DATA TRACKS SFC RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA. THU NIGHT MAY FEATURE FROST...FREEZE ISSUES...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM NW PA...IF THE GRADIENT AND CLD COVER IS SLOW TO INCREASE. ANOTHER MOISTURE- STARVED COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIRLY LOW POPS. FRI NITE COULD BE ANOTHER COLD ONE AS HIGH PRES WITH LOW PW AT AIR DRIFTS OVR THE STATE. MODELS HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WARMER WX APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE AND DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. A BRIEF LINE HAS FORMED ALONG A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH WEST OVER RENOVO. THIS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION AND CONTINUATION OF LOW STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS LIKELY FROM SEG SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE BROUGHT ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR BY LATE EVENING. BFD...WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. BFD SHOULD SEE REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS BY 06Z THROUGH 15Z. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. THU...VFR. FRI...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. SAT...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 051026 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 626 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A DYING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT ENTERS NORTHWEST PA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING SOME VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM SFC RH FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-15Z. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR IS PUSHING A DYING COLD FRONT TOWARD PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATES THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA LATER TODAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE N MTNS. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHILE MOST OF NORTHERN PA WILL SEE MORNING SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOC WITH APPROACH OF DYING FRONT. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M60S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...TO ARND 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASED OF UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT...BRINGING OUR NW COUNTIES A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING AND RIBBON OF MDL 8-7H FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AM. DURING THIS TIME...BLEND OF OPER AND ENS MEAN QPF SUGGESTS UP TO 0.75 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS WARREN CO...WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AMTS FURTHER SE. MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN THE RELATIVELY QUIET /DRY/ WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF LOW TRACK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT AM...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA. THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE MILD SIDE...AND IN THE 50-55F RANGE FOR LOWS SE OF THE MTNS...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS COOL OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND FRONT. MDLS INDICATE AN ANAFRONT STRUCTURE WITH BULK OF CLOUDS/SHRA BEHIND COLD FRONT...ASSOC WITH THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION OF JET ENTRANCE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME SHOULD TEND TO DRY UP SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS THRU LATE MORNING...BUT ONLY ARND 25 PCT CHC ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. BY AFTN...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR...AS LOW PWAT AIR FLOWS INTO THE STATE ON WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE L50S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 70F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TIMING DIFFS HAVE BECOME MINIMAL WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. UPPER LVL WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING SUN AFTN. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING...AS IMPLIED BY MDL 500-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN IN MOST SPOTS ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ACTUALLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED WITH THE SHRA SUNDAY EVENING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ALLEGHENIES...AS UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU. IN THE LONGER RANGE...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG OPER MDLS AND ENSEMBLES THRU NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH PLACE MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS OVR THE GRT LKS. NOTABLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE SHOULD AFFECT PA WED AND THU NITE/FRIDAY. SFC ANTICYCLONE/LOW PWAT AIR PASSING OVR THE STATE SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND COOL WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT ON WED...WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THU NITE OR FRIDAY. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY...TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE BLW NORMAL THRU NEXT WEEK...AS WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROF AND BLW NORMAL 850 TEMPS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRIMARILY VFR. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MAINLY AT THE EASTERN THREE TAF SITES /KIPT-KLNS-KMDT/. ALL HAVE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 2 DEGREES OR LESS...SO EXPECT MVFR VSBY WITH IFR CIGS AT KIPT AFTER 06Z...AND MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING AT KLNS-KMDT WITH BRIEF IFR POSS TOWARD SUNRISE. SHORT-LIVED MVFR VSBY MAY DEVELOP AT KBFD AFTER 08Z AS WELL. FRI AFTERNOON...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NW PA...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEFORE 00Z SAT TO KBFD...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN WILL COVER THE NW THIRD OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT /MAINLY IMPACTING KBFD/...WITH MAINLY VFR CONTINUING ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR ALONG THE KJST-KUNV-KIPT LINE DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING SAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST. VFR TO PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE. SUN AND SUN NIGHT...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY TURN TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND WET SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INVOF OF KBFD. MON AND TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN PENN. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 010712 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 312 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION TODAY. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE KEYSTONE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING RAPIDLY IN THE REGIONAL VALLEYS WHILE THIN HIGH CLOUDS MAKE SLOW INROADS OVER SWRN PA. IF THE HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...THE FIRST VISUALS OF THE DAY SHOULD REVEAL A PRETTY MUCH CLASSIC DENDRITIC FOG PATTERN IN CENTRAL PA. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE M30S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL BISECT THE STATE...IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE OVR MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 00Z TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH TO SOUTH. MDLS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE SFC WAVE INTO TN/KY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT ROBUST NWD MSTR FLUX INTO THE AREA MON NGT...WITH PWATS SURGING TO +2-3SD BY 12Z TUE. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS PERHAPS A DUEL MSTR FEED FM THE GOMEX AND ATM RIVER EMANATING FM THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SOURCE OF HI PWATS INTO TUES. THE 12Z MODELS STILL DISPLAY SOME DETAIL DIFFS WITH THIS SYS AND THEREFORE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE DY2 FINALS. HOWEVER WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS/09Z SREF...STILL FEEL THAT HIGHER POPS ARE JUSTIFIED /ESPECIALLY FROM 06-12Z TUES/ GIVEN THE STG WAA/ISENT LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY TUES...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI. SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH PA LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERODING STABILITY AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TUES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. QPF ON TUE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25 ON AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSS. SOAKING RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RIDES OVER THE SFC LOW...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES AROUND BASE OF TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING INTO OHIO VALLEY WED. MODELS STILL HINTING AT WEAK SECONDARY SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SE...WHICH MAY PEEL POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH QPFS AWAY FROM PA RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND A MINIMAL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE SFC LOW/FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST - MAINLY IN THE WEST AS DRY SLOT APPEARS TO WORK IN WITH RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THU AND FRI WILL SEE SFC RIDGING AND W/SW UPPER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIVERGING FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS/GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING ALBEIT FADING FRONT LATER FRIDAY WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WANTING TO SHEAR OUT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF HERE. THE ECMWF /UNUSUALLY/ CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...HOLDING ITS UPPER ENERGY BACK RESULTING IN A BROAD WSW FLOW EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING OVER THE GR LAKES AND NERN US. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL DEVELOPING A SLOW MOVING WAVY ANA-FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TOUGH TO EVEN LEAN FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH SUCH DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE...SO HAD TO KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS SEVERAL PERIODS...THOUGH PAINTED HIGHEST POPS ON SAT. FOR TEMPS...GRADUALLY OOZED COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FROM SAT INTO MON. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG AND LOWER CLDS AT THE CURRENT TIME. SOME SPOTS WILL BE IFR OR LIFR...WHILE OTHERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY MVFR AND VFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...BUT HI CLDS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CLDS AND SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WORK TO THE NE LATE TODAY... AS VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP. MUCH OF TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WEST OF THE MTS...STILL THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY... GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM WESTERN NC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT TIMING NOT CLEAR CUT...AS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND MODELS SHOW A LOT OF VARIATION. SUSPECT FRONT WILL COME IN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AS A RATHER STRONG RIDGE IS FCST TO BE JUST OFF THE SE COAST. OUTLOOK... TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS. WED...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...MARTIN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 010359 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1159 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION ON MONDAY. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE KEYSTONE STATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND SKIES CLEARED LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS AND SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. 11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE S TIER...WHERE GROUND IS WET FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. BASED ON 02Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND LATEST MDL RH FCST...WILL EXPAND THE PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SC MTNS...WHERE 18Z GEFS INDICATES THE WEAKEST GRADIENT AND DRIEST AIR /PWATS 1SD BLW NORMAL/. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE M30S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST BY DAWN...MAINLY ACROSS CAMBRIA/SOMERSET CO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL BISECT THE STATE...IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE OVR MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 00Z TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH TO SOUTH. MDLS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE SFC WAVE INTO TN/KY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT ROBUST NWD MSTR FLUX INTO THE AREA MON NGT...WITH PWATS SURGING TO +2-3SD BY 12Z TUE. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS PERHAPS A DUEL MSTR FEED FM THE GOMEX AND ATM RIVER EMANATING FM THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SOURCE OF HI PWATS INTO TUES. THE 12Z MODELS STILL DISPLAY SOME DETAIL DIFFS WITH THIS SYS AND THEREFORE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE DY2 FINALS. HOWEVER WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS/09Z SREF...STILL FEEL THAT HIGHER POPS ARE JUSTIFIED /ESPECIALLY FROM 06-12Z TUES/ GIVEN THE STG WAA/ISENT LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY TUES...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI. SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH PA LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERODING STABILITY AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TUES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. QPF ON TUE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25 ON AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSS. SOAKING RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RIDES OVER THE SFC LOW...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES AROUND BASE OF TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING INTO OHIO VALLEY WED. MODELS STILL HINTING AT WEAK SECONDARY SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SE...WHICH MAY PEEL POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH QPFS AWAY FROM PA RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND A MINIMAL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE SFC LOW/FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST - MAINLY IN THE WEST AS DRY SLOT APPEARS TO WORK IN WITH RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THU AND FRI WILL SEE SFC RIDGING AND W/SW UPPER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIVERGING FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS/GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING ALBEIT FADING FRONT LATER FRIDAY WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WANTING TO SHEAR OUT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF HERE. THE ECMWF /UNUSUALLY/ CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...HOLDING ITS UPPER ENERGY BACK RESULTING IN A BROAD WSW FLOW EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING OVER THE GR LAKES AND NERN US. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL DEVELOPING A SLOW MOVING WAVY ANA-FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TOUGH TO EVEN LEAN FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH SUCH DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE...SO HAD TO KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS SEVERAL PERIODS...THOUGH PAINTED HIGHEST POPS ON SAT. FOR TEMPS...GRADUALLY OOZED COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FROM SAT INTO MON. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LATE EVENING MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE MCLEAR SKY AND LGT WIND NECESSARY FOR CONTINUED COOLING AND EXPANSION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. IPT ALREADY HAS A 400FT CIG AT 0330Z AND SEE NO REASON FOR IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY...IT APPEARS MOST AIRFIELDS WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN FOG BEFORE THE NIGHT IS THROUGH. UNFAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY AT MDT WOULD SUGGEST THAT AIRFIELD MAY ESCAPE SIG VIS RESTRICTIONS. ANY EARLY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS OVR THE REGION. LOW PRES LIFTING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN MON NIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. WED...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 300306 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012 .UPDATE...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS...AS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN RAPIDLY IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE EARLIER INFLUX OF MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S. BREEZY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THICKER FOG HOWEVER. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE CLOUDS TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING MARINE LAYER MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE SOME STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST WI FOR A TIME. DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM LAKE MOISTURE ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. WL NEED TO LOWER FEW SPOTS IN THE EAST. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW BRIEF PERIOD OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE TIED TO SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL RH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DELTA-T INCREASES TO AROUND 10-11C AT THIS TIME. LAST SEVERAL IR SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LAKE CLOUDS OVER NORTH PART OF LAKE. WL BRING A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF BKN MVFR INTO ERN TAF SITES EARLY SUN MRNG. OTHERWISE...EXPC VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. && .MARINE...NEPHANALYSIS REVEALS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HAS MOVED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL EXPECT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO FORM OVER THE LAKE WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGES HAS UNIFORM LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 16C FROM THE SHORE OUT TO MID-LAKE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS...BUT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 3 FEET OR HIGHER. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645- 646. && $$ MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 271148 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 548 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2012 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE ACTIVE DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH LOCALLY STRONG SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY DRY GUSTY -SHRA/TSRA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD. MODIS RGB IMAGERY AND OBS VERIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS FROM KRTN EAST TO KCAO. EXPECT THIS AREA TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE. CURRENTLY SOME -TSRA EXITING EAST ALONG THE TX STATE LINE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THRU 15Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY REDEVELOP AFT 19Z WHERE REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS INSTABILITY. CARRIED ONLY VCTS AT KTCC AND KROW SINCE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT ANY SPECIFIC SITE WILL ACTUALLY BE IMPACTED. FARTHER WEST MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND A COUPLE VCSH BY LATE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2012... THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE...ROUGHLY...WILL BE WHERE MUCH OF THE ACTION...ESPEC PCPN AND STORM INTENSITY...WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS A FAIRLY DECENT COMBO OF JET RELATED DYNAMICS... EFFECTS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IMPACT NE AND PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL NM AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND PARTIALLY TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTS THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. FIRST OFF THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS ACROSS NE AND FAR E CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO AT LEAST MID EVE. THOSE AREAS LOOKING AT SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF WINDS WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS GOING UP AS WELL...THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MIX BACK NE A BIT...BUT LIKELY STILL STAY SOMEWHERE IN NE NM...AS WELL AS DECENT LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA. THUS FEEL SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND THUS ADDED THE SEVERE MENTION IN WX GRIDS FOR ROUGHLY RATON TO TUCUMCARI AND EASTWARD. KEPT APPROX SAME AREA IN THE RISK AREA INTO MID EVE...THEN ELIMINATED IT. BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY AS TO EXACT COVERAGE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO/THRU THE EVE. IN THE SE WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE...WITH SOME TROPICAL INPUT...WILL SEE PERHAPS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED INSTANCES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NE NM AS WELL WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MODEST TO MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW THERE. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...ACTIVITY INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT...BUT FRONT MAY ADVANCE SOME TO S AND W AND THAT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE E. HOWEVER THE VERY LATEST NAM MODEL DATA IS MUCH LESS BULLISH ON BACK DOOR ADVANCEMENT FOR TONIGHT SO ANY MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT TO AND ESPECIALLY W OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN NOW LOOKS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THUS LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT TO SEE IF THIS NEW TREND CONTINUES AND MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND QPF ETC ESPEC W OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FOR THE FRI TO SAT PERIOD. WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED MORE TO THE SE AND E OF THE STATE AS NW MID AND UPPER FLOW TAKES OVER...DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE JUST A MEMORY FOR THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OR SO WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT IN THE NW TO INCREASINGLY N FLOW OVER WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING TENDENCY ACROSS THE STATE WITH EVENTUALLY SOME DAYTIME SLIGHT TO MODERATE WARMING. AS EARLY AS MON THEN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD STATEWIDE AS DEWPOINTS PLUMMET AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. DID GO A LITTLE BELOW MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MINIMUMS FROM MON ON TO ALLOW FOR THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LENGTHENING NIGHTS. 43 .FIRE WEATHER... A BATTLE BETWEEN TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND DRY AIR OOZING SE INTO THE NW HALF OF NM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHALLENGING WIND AND RH FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND. DAILY ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WAFFLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION COMPLICATING WHERE THE GRADIENT FOR WETTING RAINFALL SETS UP. CURRENTLY HEAVIER STORMS OVER THE E PLAINS ARE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN WITH RATHER LARGE FOOTPRINTS FOR QUAY...CURRY...AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. RECOVERIES RANGE FROM EXCELLENT ACROSS THE PLAINS TO GOOD ALONG THE AZ BORDER...WHICH WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LIKEWISE MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND 20S ALONG THE AZ BORDER TO THE 40S ALONG THE TX STATE LINE. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME FOR GOOD WETTING RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS WILL BE OVER THE SE HALF...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OOZE WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY FOR BETTER STORM CHANCES. VENT RATES WILL BE NEAR POOR ACROSS THE EAST AND GOOD OUT WEST AS HAINES VALUES FOLLOW SUIT WITH LOW VALUES OUT EAST AND MODERATE OUT WEST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN INCREASING DRY NW FLOW OVER WESTERN NM SUNDAY THEN INTO THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING ONE FINAL SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS ON A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE UPPER HIGH...THUS DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE REGION CONSIDERABLY. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL FAVOR CHILLY MIN TEMPS WITH MILD AFTERNOON HIGHS. STRONG MID SLOPE INVERSIONS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE PICTURE IN THIS SCENARIO. VENT RATES AS A RESULT FALL TO POOR FOR THE WEST AND REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE EAST. GUYER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER/43  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 232008 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT ALSO...THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES BEFORE WINDS/CLOUDS LEVEL THINGS OFF TOWARD MORNING. OPTED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT MILWAUKEE AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STAY MILDER AGAIN. A NICE DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET BACK TO NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY FALL. .SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WEAKENING COOL FRONT SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT REMAINS WEAK SO FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN IL RATHER QUIETLY...WITH A FEW-SCT CU AND WIND SHIFT MARKING ITS PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TURNING TO THE NNE ON WED. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN WI AND OVER LAKE MI DURING THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS FLIRT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME ON WED. BOTH ECMWF AND NAM SHOWING INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB WITH PARCHED AIR MASS ABOVE 700. MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP IMAGE FROM SAT EVE AND BUOY/CMAN OBS HAVE MID-LAKE TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 60S WHILE RECENT OFF SHORE WINDS HAVE COOLED SST INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. DELTA-T EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 14-15C ON WED. SOME CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT -SHRA...BUT WITH FLUCTUATING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND QUESTIONABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION...WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING -SHRA AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL 5 TO 12 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF AREA TO START OFF THE PERIOD. GFS HAS BEEN OUTLIER LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN SHOWING STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO WISCONSIN AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF...GEM AND UKMT CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER WAVE MOVING MORE ELY ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY TOWARD EAST COAST. SINCE LATEST GFS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH...AND CONCENSUS OF OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE...WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR THU AND REMOVE SMALL POPS FROM IL BORDER AREA THU NGT AND FRI. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXTENDED GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF BRINGS WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THRU SRN WI SAT NGT INTO SUN AND PHASES IT WITH SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE. ACTUALLY PREFER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM SYSTEMS. HPC ALSO LEANING ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND PRODUCING THEIR BLENDED FIELDS VALID AT 12Z/30. HENCE WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY 7. SUNSHINE BUT WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY APPEARS THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL ONLY INCREASE TO HIGH ENOUGH VALUES BY MORNING...WHEN WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL START COMING UP ALSO. UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES...LOOKS FAR TOO MARGINAL AND FOR TOO SHORT OF A TIME TO PUT IN TAFS. && .MARINE... STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE GUSTS OF 25 OR 30 KNOTS FROM MID-LATE MORNING AND INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD SHEBOYGAN...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH GALE WARNING CRITERIA FOR A TIME. SEEMED TOO BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...SO OPTED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES FROM 14Z SAT MORNING...TO 09Z SAT NIGHT. WAVES WILL NOT GET OUT OF HAND DUE TO OFFSHORE NATURE OF WINDS...PEAKING AT 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && .CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH. WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. $$ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 200958 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 558 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATE SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS...THE RESULT OF A COOL...CALM MORNING AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE MOST PERSISTENT FOG WILL BE UNDER SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE PATCHES COULD LINGER UNTIL 14Z-15Z. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. GEFS 8H TEMPS SHOW MODERATION OF THIS ONCE CHILLY AIR MASS WITH MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 9C BY AFTN...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE U60S AND L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DYING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVR MICHIGAN...WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO ARND 15 PCT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE W MTNS WITH ARRIVAL OF THIS WEAK FRONT. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THE LG SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEST OF PA ASSOC WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...SO THE CHANCE OF ANY -SHRA WILL BE MINIMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRAW HIGHER HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT...WITH MINS MOSTLY ARND 50F. DYING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVR CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCT AFTN -SHRA. WILL PLACE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS /ARND 30 PCT/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...WHERE MDL DATA SHOWS TONGUE OF HIGHER SFC-8H THTE. DESPITE A PT-MOCLDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD REACH NR SEASONAL NORMS FRI AFTN DUE TO WARMER RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SFC RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE LG SCALE PATTERN OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER LOW OVR ONTARIO GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATER SAT OR SAT NIGHT. AS MDL DATA HAS COME INTO LINE W/REGARDS TO TIMING OF FRONT...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SAT PM. MDL DATA HINTING THAT ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF FROPA FOR MENTION OF THUNDER IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY W/REGARDS TO AMT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING CAPES. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LYR SHEAR...COMBINED WITH EVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COULD POSE THE THREAT OF SVR WX OVR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SAT AFTN. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY W WIND ACROSS THE REGION...ACCENTUATING THE POST-FRONT CHILL. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M50S NW MTNS TO THE U60S SE. FAIR BUT STILL COOL WEATHER APPEAR LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GEFS AND ECMWF MEAN 8H TEMPS REMAIN BLW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH MON AND TUE. SFC HIGH PRES SYS WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING A MILDER SW FLOW TO DEVELOP. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS... WITH SOME VALLEY FOG IMPACTING KIPT-KSEG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. DID NOT MENTION FOR KBFD AS WIND GRADIENT PICKS UP A LITTLE HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE. DURING THE DAY THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS DO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIKELY SHOWERS. SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS. MON...VFR...AS HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010- 011. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 110356 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1056 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012 .UPDATE...FEW IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT COOLING. WEAK UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSING FEW PASSING CS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MINOR LLWS EVENT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REACHING 35 KTS BELOW 2K FEET. OTHERWISE A VFR PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLY STRONGER LLWS EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS AND WEAKENS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING ENCROACHING ON THE VERY LOW LEVELS TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AT THE SHORE...MORE FREQUENT AWAY FROM THE SHORE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE LAKE SURFACE. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAKE TEMP IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AROUND 20C. HENCE PUSHED UP START TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN TWO ZONES TO PRESENT TIME...AND ALSO EXPANDED ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 070830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TEAM WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO BRING NMRS SHRA TO THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REACHING 30 UNITS SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE EAST THIS EVENING. LAYER FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS ALSO SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. IN ADDITION...STRONG ISENTROPIC OMEGA ON 305 THETA SFC SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG THRU MID-AFTN. SRN WI WL REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF PIVOTING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSING CONVECTION OVER IA ATTM. SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD T FROM THIS FORCING EXPD EARLY THIS MRNG. SHRA ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH AROUND KRST AND KONA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. THINKING MORE SCT -SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE MRNG AND AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS THEY MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER DUE TO BUILDING THICKNESS TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN WI...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WILL CARRY T MENTION IN SOUTH DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED WEAK INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTN. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON WESTERN SIDE OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WINDOW FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL IS MID AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE SOUNDING WITH THE NAM ITSELF NOT PAINTING ANY QPF. GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW. WEAK THERMAL RIDGE POKES ACROSS SRN/CNTRL WI BEFORE COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN DURING THE EVENING. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STEADY NNW UPPER FLOW AS TROUGH AXIS PULLS FURTHER AWAY. 850 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO IOWA WITH SURFACE HIGH BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS WI. 925 TEMPS AVERAGING 12-14C YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD 500 MILLIBAR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THIS PERIOD. SURFACE/850 HIGHS TO THE EAST. A WARMER SOUTHERLY REGIME KICKS IN. 925 TEMPS SLOW TO RESPOND MONDAY...BUT A SLIGHT WARMING NOTED. A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING ON TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW MAIN QUESTION IS HANDLING POPS WITH MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH FRONT. GEMNH AND GFS SUGGEST PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 00Z ECMWF FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THINGS DRY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIPPLES TO RIDE ALONG BOUNDARY AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN IS A CONCERN. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUPPORTED DECENT POPS FOR THURSDAY WHILE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A LOT DRIER LOOKING. CONSENSUS WAS REACHED TO TRIM THE POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA THIS AFTN. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO ERODE LOW CLOUDS LATER IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ISOLD T EXPCD WITH STRONG DYNAMICS TODAY. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS 68-70F. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE DELTA-T OVER THE LAKE TO 12-13 DEGREES THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20K. WATERSPOUT INDEX INCREASES TO 8 TO 10 UNITS. WL ADD MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS TO HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO OCNL SHRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 310839 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 339 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE..MEDIUM WEAK UPSTREAM PRESSURE RISES AND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TODAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND LINGERING WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WL ACT AS CAP PREVENTING ISOLD PRECIP. HENCE WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. TEMPS TRICKY AS HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAPID COOLING IN EAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP ALONG SHORE AREAS THIS AFTN. TEMPS MAY FALL 20-30F IN SEVERAL HOURS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. LARGE GRADIENT OF MAX TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS CWA TODAY...FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTH. FRONT SAGS JUST SOUTH OF WI/IL BORDER TONIGHT...WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN SOUTHERN CWA. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF ISAAC REMNANTS MAY BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. ..SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL EXPECTING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. KEPT SOME LOW POPS TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK NORTH INTO THE STATE. EXPECTING SUNSHINE AT TIMES SAT AND SUN...SO KEPT HIGHS JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE UNDER EASTERLY WINDS. .MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE/LIFT FIELDS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. 925 MB TEMPS EVEN WARMER MONDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE. LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH. MODELS DO TRY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES...SO THREW SOME LOW POPS INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO BIG PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND MONDAY FRONT...SO KEPT 80S GOING FOR TUESDAY. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM KEPT POPS GOING FOR WED AND THU...AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NEITHER SYSTEM LOOKS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...BUT STRONGER LOW AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY AT LEAST SUGGESTING SOME COOLER AIR MIGHT FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS OVER SRN WI. SFC WINDS WL ALSO INCREASE WITH INSOLATION THIS MRNG BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SFC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SRN WI. PRESSURE GRADIENT WL REMAIN TIGHTEST OVER KENW...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMKE AND KENW BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH WITH CAPPING INVERSION. HENCE HELD OFF ON ANY ISOLD PRECIP. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ISAAC REMNANTS APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE...LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS OVER SHORE AREAS FROM WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR FOR 1-3 HOURS LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED BRIEF PERIOD...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LMZ646 AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WL RESULT IN WINDS RAPIDLY TURNING TO THE NE LATER TODAY. TIME FRAME FOR WIND SHIFT FROM SGNW3 TO PWAW3 BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...AND MLWW3 TO KNSW3 FROM 18Z TO 21Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY RESULTED IN UPWELLING EVENT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE. AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...THESE COOL WATER TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT...BUT WL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW FAR LAKESHORE TEMPS DROP IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COULD PRODUCE SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG AS IT CROSSES COOLER UPWELLING WATERS AS WELL...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 311026 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 626 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING TYPICAL DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE PEAK OF THIS BOUT OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. TIGHTENING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING /UP TO 5-6 KFT AGL/ TO CREATE A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND OF 10-20 KTS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F FRIDAY...THEY SHOULD DECREASE A FEW DEG F DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR OF LESS THAN ONE INCH PERSISTS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS NR 20C /OR PLUS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS/ WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 90F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE A SOLID +10-15F ABV LATE AUG NORMALS BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS SHY OF HISTORICAL RECORDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PA/NY BORDER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...TIME OF ARRIVAL AFTER SUNSET...COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH BASED...SCT- BKN STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN TIER THIS EVENING WITH A LONE SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. AS FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A LATE NIGHT SHRA ACROSS EXTREME SW PA...WHERE PWATS PROGGED TO BE MUCH HIGHER. INCREASING DWPTS...A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND A BREEZE WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH LOWS FROM THE M50S N MTNS...TO U60S S TIER. COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WORKING IN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPLY MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH MSUNNY AND STILL WARM WX. HOWEVER...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF FRONT ALONG WITH THE CHC OF A SHRA OR TSRA. GEFS MEAN 850MB TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM NEAR 80F OVR THE N MTNS...TO NR 90F IN THE VALLEYS NR THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE DRAW REMNANTS OF ISSAC EASTWARD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND...THEN THRU PA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH FROM THE GRT LKS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY OF FROPA. ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS A LOW PROBABILITY. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES CROSSING S-CENTRAL CANADA IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NCEP GFS/GEFS DATA REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF HGT FALLS/PCPN THRU THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON A NEAR EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GMOS/HPC GRIDS WHICH FOCUSES THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL/HIGHEST POPS ON TUE. BY NEXT WED-THUR...THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GRT LKS/MISS VALLEY. MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA INTO SAT NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT /YET MOIST/ SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG - MAINLY IN THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MTNS - TOWARD MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSS IN THE LOWER SUSQ JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ANY FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...LEAVING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS DO PICK UP FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI/FRI NIGHT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT...AM FOG POSS W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHWESTERN PENN...NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF KAOO AND KJST. SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH. MON AND TUE...SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA. PERIODS OF LOW CIGS POSS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 291634 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1134 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 .UPDATE... A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO HIGH TEMPS AND SKY COVER. OVERALL...A BENIGN WX DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MICHIGAN AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING TODAY. SKY COVER WAS DECREASED A BIT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND ADJUSTED FOR DIURNAL CU POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED ALTOCU ARE OBSERVED ON VIS SAT AT AROUND 80-100 HFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER GIVEN SOUNDINGS AND WEAK WAA. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES GIVEN THIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DIURNAL CU. HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL DUE TO RECENT CHANGES IN SKY AND 925 HPA TEMPS. 925 HPA TEMPS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 26 C FAR WEST TO 22 C FAR EAST...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 90 F TO 84 F. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE ADEQUATE MIXING UP TO AT LEAST 900 HPA GIVEN SOUNDINGS...THERE WILL BE AN ON-SHORE FLOW. AS SUCH...WITH LAKE TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AS SEEN FROM MODIS 8-DAY SST...DIDN\T GO THAT HIGH IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS OVER CENTRAL CWA WERE RAISED THOUGH...2-4 DEGREES F. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. THEN...MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT MSN TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET FORMS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL...AS THE NAM IS SHOWING CLOSE TO OR JUST UNDER 30 KTS OF WIND DIFFERENCE AND ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIRECTION CHANGE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW LEVELS...BELOW 10K FEET EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRIER. ALSO...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 310 THETA SURFACE REMAIN OVER 200MB OVER WESTERN CWA THIS MRNG WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW. PREDOMINANCE OF MESO-SCALE MODELS KEEP ANY ACTIVITY WEST OF CWA. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ISOLD -SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR WEST...BUT WL ROLL DICE AND REMOVE SMALL POPS IN WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH SOUTH OF AREA LATER TODAY. BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS WARMER THAN TUESDAY. FEW WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY CLIMB TO NEAR 90F. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT AS REMNANTS OF ISAAC PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WL RESULT IN MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD WITH LESS THREAT FOR FOG. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD 591-594DM UPPER RIDGE WITH WARM SOUTHWEST 850/925 WINDS. 850 TEMPS 23-24C. TAKING ECMWF AS COMPROMISE ON 925 THERMAL FIELD YIELDS 26C IN THE FAR SE TO NEAR 29C IN THE FAR NW CWA. SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ADEQUATE MIXING. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 90S. IN SOME CASES THE GFS MOS DEW POINTS ARE 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM MOS. GIVEN THE PARCHED LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS WILL CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER LOOK OF THE NAM. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. 925 THERMAL FIELD SUPPRESSES HIGHEST TEMPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH A MIN IN THE NE CWA...THANKS TO A WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL VERY TOASTY WITH 90 PLUS INLAND TEMPS EXPECTED. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ISAAC. 00Z GEM AND 00Z GFS KEEP IT SOUTH. 12Z ECMWF WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE PUSH INTO SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHERN WI. BLENDED POPS TO MESH WITH DVN AND LOT. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN THIS SOUTHERN SOLUTION LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO DRY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/EAST WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AROUND MONDAY. APPEARS UPPER FLOW MAY GO ANTICYCLONIC TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIX TOO...SO A TREND TOWARDS DRY FOR TUESDAY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WILL RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF FOG PERIOD AT KENW AND KUES EARLY THIS MRNG DUE TO LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS BELOW INVERSION. ANY FOG SHOULD THIN QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MRNG FROM WEAK UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THIN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING OVER INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL SOME SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS PERTAINING TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE GRADIENT. HENCE PER COORD WITH GRB...WL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY BEFORE PULLING TRIGGER ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY. FIRE WEATHER...WEATHER CRITERIA FOR DETERMINING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED ON THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 15 MPH OR HIGHER. AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S. HOWEVER CFFDRS BUILD-UP INDEX REMAINS WELL BELOW 100 WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AFTER GREEN-UP. WI-DNR WILL BE REASSESSING FUEL MOISTURE THIS MRNG FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI FOR THU. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ET/MEB TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRB 271955 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 255 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. PRETTY TYPICAL UPPER PATTERN FOR LATE SUMMER...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES PULLED WAY N ACRS SRN CANADA. UPR RIDGE OUT NR THE WEST COAST WL BUILD/EXPAND EWD ACRS THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. NOT GETTING A REAL CLEAR PICTURE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND...BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY WESTERLIES WL SAG SWD INTO THE CONUS AGAIN...WITH LNGWV TROF POSSIBLY TRYING TO GET RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE E. THE PATTERN WL BE A VERY WARM AND DRY ONE FOR MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE PROSPECT FOR SIG PCPN. PCPN CHCS MAY START TO INCR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COOL FRONT SAGS SWD INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THAT DOES NOT REALLY HAVE THE LOOK OF A GOOD PCPN PRODUCER EITHER. && .SHORT TERM...TNGT/TUE. QUIET WX EXPECTED. SOME FG WL PROBABLY FORM AGAIN TNGT. BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING...AND THE DENSE FG WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO LOCALIZED FOG BANKS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND NR STREAMS AND RIVERS. WL CARRY AS PATCHY FG IN THE FCST. CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS SUPPORTED TAKING TEMPS A LITTLE BLO THE LOWER GUID VALUES...ESP IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL COOL SPOTS. 850 MB TEMPS TUE WL BE SIMILAR TO TDA...SO STAYED CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WL BE THE LAKESHORE. SINCE WE WON/T MIX INTO NWLY FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...LAKE BREEZE WL WORK INLAND DURING THE AFTN. SO EDGED TEMPS DOWN LAKESIDE...ESP FM MTW- JUST N OF SUE WHERE MODIS STLT IMAGERY INDICATED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS HAD FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE TO UPWELLING. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS SEE NEW RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE. A COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES DUE TO THE UNKNOWN PATH OF ISAAC. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACRS THE AREA NOW AND WL CONT INTO TNGT. STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MIFG TO FORM LATE TNGT. COVERAGE OF THE FG SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS THIS MORNING...BUT VSBYS WL PROBABLY BE AFFECTED ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO WARRANT INCLUSION AS TEMPO GROUP IN RHI/CWA/GRB/AUW TAFS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SKOWRONSKI/MG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 270237 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 937 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012 .UPDATE...PUSH OF DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE RESULTING IN THINNING LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT CHANGING MUCH BEHIND WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. QUITE A BIT OF DRIER AIR AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN...HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVY AND KEEP MENTION OF DENSE FOG MORE PATCHY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER ENOUGH CONCERN FOR DENSE FOG TO ISSUE SPS. ALSO THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF DRIER AIR WILL PRECLUDE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS WITH FOG THE MAIN THREAT. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...WL BRING VSBY IN TAF SITES CLOSE TO ALTERNATE LANDING MINIMUMS IN EXPECTED FOG LATER TONIGHT. MAY EVEN TAKE VSBYS DOWN TO AIRFIELD LANDING MINIMUMS AT KENW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. && .MARINE...SHEBOYGAN WEBCAMS SHOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INTERESTING SINCE RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S...OFF SHORE. PERHAPS THE RECENT SOUTH WINDS RESULTED IN SOME UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS CLOSE TO SHORE. THERE WERE A FEW PIXELS OF LOW 60S IN THE MODIS SST PASS FROM 0709Z/SUN. WOULD THINK AREAS OF DENSE FOG WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS TURN MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOR THIS REASON...HELD OFF ON MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY FOR NOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 241648 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 948 AM PDT FRI AUG 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. .UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO MUCH OF INTERIOR HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON WESTERLIES WILL PUSH THE SMOKE BACK TO THE EAST. TONIGHT EXPECT SMOKE WILL RETURN IN A FAIRLY SIMILAR FASHION. ALSO MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD COVER. MKK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM PDT FRI AUG 24 2012/ DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW ATTM WITH UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NE PAC. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH IMPACTING THE NW U.S. THROUGH WED BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND. HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A GENERAL MODEL BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR DIFFERENCES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN ATTM...A COOLER WX PATTERN WITH GREATER COASTAL FG/STRATUS COVERAGE IS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE. EARLIER WINDSAT PASS VERIFIES WELL AGAINST GRIDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND SAT. DID EXTEND THE N OFFSHORE GALE WARNING 3 HOURS WHICH BLENDS BETTER WITH MFR AND FORECAST WIND GUSTS. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE THRU TODAY OVER THE EXTREME N PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 5 FT ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /SEC AVIATION...06Z MODIS PASS SHOWED SOME FG IN THE VAN DUZEN RIVER VALLEY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS REST OF CWA. EXPECT PERSISTENCE TO RULE THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME MVFR VSBY AROUND ROUND VALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE N PASS FIRE. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ470. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 241033 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 333 AM PDT FRI AUG 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. && .DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW ATTM WITH UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NE PAC. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS TROUGH IMPACTING THE NW U.S. THROUGH WED BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND. HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A GENERAL MODEL BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR DIFFERENCES. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN ATTM...A COOLER WX PATTERN WITH GREATER COASTAL FG/STRATUS COVERAGE IS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE. EARLIER WINDSAT PASS VERIFIES WELL AGAINST GRIDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND SAT. DID EXTEND THE N OFFSHORE GALE WARNING 3 HOURS WHICH BLENDS BETTER WITH MFR AND FORECAST WIND GUSTS. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE THRU TODAY OVER THE EXTREME N PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 5 FT ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /SEC && .AVIATION...06Z MODIS PASS SHOWED SOME FG IN THE VAN DUZEN RIVER VALLEY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS REST OF CWA. EXPECT PERSISTENCE TO RULE THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME MVFR VSBY AROUND ROUND VALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE N PASS FIRE. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ470. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 241012 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 612 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AN UPPER LOW OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A DEEP TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND RESULTING NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ISAAC WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENTRITIC PATTERN OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z. IR SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUGGEST CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD UP EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER TROF AXIS...AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF PA TODAY. VARYING OPACITY OF HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL CAUSE SKIES TO RANGE FROM MCLDY TO MSUNNY TODAY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE THE NW HALF REMAINS MAINLY SUNNY. SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA...ENSURING DRY WX OVR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS A BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS BLW 10PCT. TODAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY FOR LATE AUGUST. MDL 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAXES IN THE L/M80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... LGT WIND AND A MCLEAR SKY ACROSS THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW MAY CAUSE CIRRUS TO WORK WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DAMPENING THE RAD COOLING AND POTENTIAL OF FOG. AS UPPER LOW CREEPS UP THE APPALACHIANS...EXPECT INCREASINGLY MOIST SERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE FACE OF 1-2.5SIGMA 850 HPA WINDS IMPLIES INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCE SHOWERS IN SERN AREAS. TEMP FCST PROBLEMATIC...AS MDLS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO ARRIVAL OF CLOUD/SHRA. FOR NOW GONE WITH HIGHS BTWN THE M70S-L80S. HOWEVER...COULD EASILY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OR COOLER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...ALL TRACKING UPPER LOW UP THE APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT TO NR THE MASON DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS ASSOCIATED MOIST...EASTERLY LL JET LIFTS THRU. LATEST GEFS DATA DRAWS BAND OF LL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND ASSOC POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES INTO SOUTHERN PA SAT NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHER CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS AND SHRA. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS BULK OF MDL DATA PUSH REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MONDAY...THEN TRACK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA COULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA...THEN DRY WX APPEARS LIKELY FOR WED-THU WHEN ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL DATA INDICATE STRONG RIDGE AND LOW PWATS OVERSPREADING THE STATE. MOST MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST...BRING ISAAC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. HOWEVER THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS SLOW REMNANTS DOWN AND TRACK THEM INTO THE MISS VALLEY. WHICHEVER TRACK IT EVENTUALLY TAKES...WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON WHERE THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM FINALLY ENDS UP. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VALLEY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT MOST AIRFIELDS TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTTY IFR/LIFR AT KIPT AND KBFD. KLNS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR CONTITIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH MORE MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW MAY BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOWER STRATUS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR EXCEPT AM VALLEY FOG. SAT NIGHT...SHRA/STRATUS POSS SE...LATE NIGHT FOG NRN VALLEYS. SUN...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST. MON...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...MAINLY EAST. MON NIGHT-TUE...CFRONT APPCHS FM NW. SHRA/TSRA POSS. MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD AVIATION...JUNG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 230840 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 440 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL WEAKEN AND A RIDGE WILL FORM TO OUR NORTHEAST. A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES A FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY OR TUESDAY...OUR BEST CHANCE AT RAIN...THE TROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TS ISAAC ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND LIKELY KEEP IT AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA WHILE A PATCH OF CIRRUS STREAMS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA IN ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE E COAST. VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z...LEAVING A MSUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VERY LGT WINDS. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 15C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS BTWN 80-85F. TRANQUIL...SEASONABLE WX WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN...MAINLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE AREA...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WX. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AN H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FAVORING A GRADUAL WARM TREND. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FACTOR IS HOW EAST THE MOISTURE ADVECTS. THE MODELS ARE IN ALIGNMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE EC BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE GFS. THE EC MOVES IT'S UPPER LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH...WHERE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. GEFS AND CMCEFS SUGGEST A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY- TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH TC ISAAC IN THE TUES-WED TIME-FRAME. AT THIS TIME THE PW PLUME IS FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS WE ARE PROJECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WE WILL BE SAVED BY THE FRONT. THE TROUGHS MERGE AND WE ARE IN A MEAN TROUGH. IMPRESSIVE FEATURES AROUND MID-WEEK WILL INCLUDE THE PW PLUME AND CIRCULATION WITH ISAAC...LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...AND A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 5940M CLOSED 500 HPA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN USA. GOING TO BE VERY HOT UNDER THAT RIDGE AND WET IN THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC. ALAS WE WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING RELATIVELY DRY AND LOCALLY BORING. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING THRU THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA AT 08Z. CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM EXTENT OF THE FOG BTWN 10Z-11Z. THE RIDGETOP LOCATION AT JST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG ISSUES THERE AND PATCH OF HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS PASSING OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIG VIS RESTRICTIONS AT MDT/LNS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS BTWN 09Z-12Z. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-13Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE REGION...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ARND DAWN. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY EAST. MON...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...MAINLY EAST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU AVIATION...FITZGERALD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 120930 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 330 AM MDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... AT 09Z THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM NEAR CLINES CORNERS EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI. THERE IS SOME DECENT MOMENTUM BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH NEAR 20 KTS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RISING ABOUT 5F BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 700MB PER 00Z NAM BUFKIT AT KTCC AND KLVS. LATEST MODIS NIGHT-TIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LINING UP WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND LINE UP WELL WITH THE MID LEVEL MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS TO PRODUCE SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NM. RAISED POPS EVEN FURTHER FOR THE EAST SLOPES. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER AFTER SATURDAYS RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY WITH PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. THE GFS DEPICTS LARGE AREAS OF QPF ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MOVING SOUTH EACH EVENING WHERE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS. HPC 12HR QPF LINES UP WELL WITH GFS SO HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER FEW POINTS FOR AREAS IN VCNTY OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN 5 TO 10F AREAWIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC AREA THAT WOULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT HEAVY WORDING FROM ZONES FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THRU THE WEEKEND IS BEGINNING TO CREEP INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY AS MODELS ARE GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO ABOUT 588DM AND SHIFTED SW INTO SW NM/SE AZ BY WEDNESDAY. RECYCLE MODE WILL TAKE OVER IN THIS PATTERN WITH NW FLOW OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT PLOWING SOUTH INTO THE E PLAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BECOME ANOTHER FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE. THE BIG QUESTION IS STILL WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL END UP OVER NM AS A DEEP TROPICAL WAVE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS MEXICO. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...INCREASING HUMIDITIES SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORN AND COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE AND PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL NM. AFTN HIGH TEMPS THOUGH STILL EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E CENTRAL NM WHERE MAXIMUMS STILL LIKELY TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. WITH FRONT COZIED UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS AFTN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL INCREASE FROM THERE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVE. FRONT WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE ARIZONA BORDER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS FOR MOST OF N AND CENTRAL NM AND WITH LARGER WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS. MOST CERTAINLY BETTER NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TONIGHT AND MORE SO MON NIGHT. RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUE WITH THAT TREND CONTINUING THROUGH WED...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WED. EVEN STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MARCHES INTO NE NM ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS ONE MAY BE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT E NM FRONT. ANOTHER MOISTURE INTRUSION BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD KICK UP THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST 5 TO 15 DEGREES OF FURTHER COOLING...IF NOT MORE. 43 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW LATER SUNDAY AT BOTH KABQ AND KSAF...WITH AN EAST GAP WIND FORECAST AT KABQ SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH AWW CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED SUNDAY EVENING AT KABQ...GUSTS NEAR 30KTS ARE LIKELY. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 96 65 93 64 / 10 30 20 30 DULCE........................... 89 52 87 52 / 20 40 40 30 CUBA............................ 94 53 88 53 / 20 60 50 40 GALLUP.......................... 92 58 88 58 / 20 30 20 30 EL MORRO........................ 86 53 80 54 / 30 30 50 40 GRANTS.......................... 91 54 85 53 / 30 30 50 40 QUEMADO......................... 90 56 91 54 / 30 30 30 30 GLENWOOD........................ 95 58 92 57 / 10 20 20 20 CHAMA........................... 82 52 78 52 / 40 50 60 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 59 83 57 / 30 60 60 40 PECOS........................... 80 58 78 58 / 60 60 50 40 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 54 75 51 / 50 50 50 40 RED RIVER....................... 72 49 68 49 / 60 60 60 50 ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 47 71 47 / 60 60 60 50 TAOS............................ 86 53 83 53 / 30 50 50 40 MORA............................ 76 55 73 56 / 60 50 60 40 ESPANOLA........................ 92 59 88 58 / 10 40 40 40 SANTA FE........................ 88 58 83 57 / 30 50 40 40 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 61 85 60 / 30 50 40 40 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 63 89 62 / 10 50 40 40 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 67 91 65 / 5 40 30 40 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 65 92 62 / 5 40 30 40 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 65 92 65 / 5 50 30 40 LOS LUNAS....................... 95 65 91 64 / 5 40 30 40 RIO RANCHO...................... 95 65 91 64 / 5 50 40 40 SOCORRO......................... 98 65 96 63 / 5 30 40 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 56 86 58 / 50 60 50 40 TIJERAS......................... 92 59 89 58 / 30 50 40 40 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 59 84 59 / 50 60 50 40 CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 57 82 58 / 60 60 60 40 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 59 86 59 / 50 50 50 40 CARRIZOZO....................... 95 63 90 63 / 30 40 40 30 RUIDOSO......................... 86 57 80 58 / 50 40 60 30 CAPULIN......................... 82 56 83 56 / 30 20 40 40 RATON........................... 88 58 90 60 / 40 30 30 40 SPRINGER........................ 87 61 86 62 / 40 30 30 40 LAS VEGAS....................... 83 57 82 58 / 60 50 60 40 CLAYTON......................... 90 62 89 64 / 20 20 20 30 ROY............................. 85 65 87 65 / 20 20 30 30 CONCHAS......................... 93 69 92 70 / 20 30 20 30 SANTA ROSA...................... 96 67 94 68 / 20 40 20 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 98 70 96 72 / 20 20 20 20 CLOVIS.......................... 96 67 92 69 / 20 20 20 20 PORTALES........................ 98 68 94 69 / 20 20 20 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 97 69 93 71 / 20 40 20 20 ROSWELL......................... 101 71 96 71 / 20 30 20 20 PICACHO......................... 96 61 90 61 / 20 40 30 20 ELK............................. 92 58 85 58 / 40 40 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER/43/11  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 090918 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 318 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE E PLAINS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWEST AND ENVELOP NEARLY THE ENTIRE STATE TODAY. CIRA BLENDED PERCENT OF NORMAL PWAT IMAGERY INDICATES VALUES NEAR 75PCT OF NORMAL ACROSS A VAST AREA OF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE 00Z RAOB AT KAMA SHOWS EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 600MB WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KABQ ABOVE 500MB. EXPERIMENTAL MODIS RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM NASA SPORT THIS MORNING SHOWS THIS VERY WELL. THE BULK OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE AS WELL AND WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE JUST ABOUT ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST TODAY...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE AZ BORDER AND THE NW MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL TREND UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS STATEWIDE. THE CURRENT 597DM H5 HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL WEAKEN TO 594DM FRIDAY AND SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THE UPPER DRY WEDGE WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO AZ WHILE A WEAK VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE SALT LAKE AREA DIVES SE ACROSS COLORADO AND NE NM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS ON THE DRIER SIDE. CONTINUED TREND FROM DAY SHIFT TO BACK OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WEAKENING THE H5 RIDGE EVEN FURTHER TO 592DM. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN NW FLOW OVER THE NE PLAINS SO FOCUS FOR GREATEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT RANGE BEHIND THIS EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS TRENDING MORE VIGOROUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS AND APPEARS TO BE WETTER THAN OUR LAST FRONT OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST FORCING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST TOWARD TX. THIS MAY POTENTIALLY FORCE A PERIOD OF BETTER STORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE THEN SLIDES NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL MONSOON BURST PATTERN TO FINISH OFF NEXT WEEK. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... WITH THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...AND A PRONOUNCED REGION OF VARY DRY MID AND LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADING AROUND THE HIGH FROM EASTERN NM TO SOUTHWESTERN NM...THERE IS A MEAGER CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME RECYCLED MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH COULD RESULT IN A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...EXCEPT THE DRIEST MID LEVEL AIR WILL SHIFT OVER SE AZ BY THEN...AND THE POCKET OF RECYCLED MOISTURE COULD SPREAD TO INCLUDE NE NM WITH A MIX OF WET AND RELATIVELY DRY STORMS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CRATER TO THE LOW TEENS AT MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NE PLAINS FRIDAY...WHERE READINGS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL VARY FROM A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ELONGATE ALONG AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL AZ TO S CENTRAL NM. THE RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CROSS WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AIDING THE CONVECTION WILL BE A MOISTER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT MAY DROP INTO THE FAR NE PLAINS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WONT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN AIDED BY OUTFLOWS FROM ANOTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IT WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD KEEP THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ACTIVE WITH WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BOOST MIN HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER SOUTHERN NM...THEN OVER TX...DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. AS MOISTURE RECYCLES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND SOMEWHAT WETTING STORMS. DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE GREATER WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. 44 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE RIDGE DOMINATING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM 19Z ONWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN HALF OF NM...AND CARRIED IN TAFS AT FMN...GUP...AND SAF. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL REDUCE THUNDER COVERAGE NEAR ABQ THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS AND VIZ THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 97 68 96 65 / 5 10 10 10 DULCE........................... 90 54 89 53 / 10 10 20 20 CUBA............................ 91 56 91 56 / 5 5 10 10 GALLUP.......................... 92 59 89 60 / 10 10 5 5 EL MORRO........................ 83 55 81 57 / 20 20 10 5 GRANTS.......................... 90 56 90 59 / 5 5 5 5 QUEMADO......................... 91 55 90 56 / 20 20 10 5 GLENWOOD........................ 92 56 90 56 / 10 10 0 0 CHAMA........................... 84 52 83 51 / 30 30 30 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 60 87 59 / 5 5 10 10 PECOS........................... 84 60 82 60 / 5 5 10 20 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 83 55 81 53 / 20 20 20 30 RED RIVER....................... 76 50 76 50 / 20 20 30 30 ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 50 78 50 / 20 20 30 30 TAOS............................ 88 55 85 54 / 10 10 20 20 MORA............................ 81 57 79 57 / 10 10 10 20 ESPANOLA........................ 94 59 93 59 / 5 5 10 10 SANTA FE........................ 88 61 87 61 / 5 5 10 10 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 63 91 63 / 5 5 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 65 92 66 / 0 5 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 67 94 67 / 0 5 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 63 97 64 / 0 5 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 65 97 66 / 0 5 0 5 LOS LUNAS....................... 95 63 94 64 / 0 5 0 5 RIO RANCHO...................... 98 65 96 66 / 0 5 5 5 SOCORRO......................... 99 65 99 67 / 0 5 0 5 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 60 90 60 / 5 5 5 10 TIJERAS......................... 93 60 93 60 / 5 5 5 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 58 86 58 / 0 5 5 10 CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 60 88 60 / 5 5 5 10 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 60 91 62 / 0 5 5 5 CARRIZOZO....................... 92 64 92 64 / 0 5 5 5 RUIDOSO......................... 83 57 83 58 / 5 5 10 10 CAPULIN......................... 89 58 88 60 / 10 10 20 20 RATON........................... 98 62 96 63 / 10 10 20 20 SPRINGER........................ 95 63 93 64 / 5 10 10 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 90 59 88 59 / 5 10 10 20 CLAYTON......................... 94 63 94 68 / 0 5 10 20 ROY............................. 92 64 91 66 / 0 10 10 20 CONCHAS......................... 98 69 97 71 / 0 0 5 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 99 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 100 71 98 72 / 0 0 5 10 CLOVIS.......................... 97 66 95 67 / 0 0 0 5 PORTALES........................ 98 66 96 68 / 0 0 0 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 98 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 5 ROSWELL......................... 99 72 98 70 / 0 0 0 5 PICACHO......................... 94 62 94 63 / 0 0 0 5 ELK............................. 88 58 88 59 / 0 0 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER/44/SHY  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 300943 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 543 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOW- MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE RESULT OF A CALM WIND AND TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE RIVER/STREAM WATER. ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...A MOIST SERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...IS CAUSING LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP. LATEST MESOSCALE MDL DATA INDICATES THE ALLEGHENY VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CU LYR BY LATE AM. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPTS BACK INTO THE REGION. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE H5 SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPING EWD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...COMBINED WITH WEAK SSELY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY LATE AFTN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/S-CENTRAL MTNS. 00Z MDL QPFS ARE GENERALLY FAVORING THIS AREA INDICATING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/WV-MD PNHDLS NWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS TDY IN THE L/M80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT...AS REGION REMAINS UNDER AREA OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROF. ECMWF/GEFS/NAM ALL PLACE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS ALONG SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...SO WILL PLACE BEST CHC OF OVERNIGHT RAINFALL THERE. MOIST SSERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH RAD COOLING...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES. PERSISTENT SSERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN VERY SLOW CLEARING ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING PTSUNNY BY AFTN. INCREASING FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BY TUE AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE WEST. 03Z SREF AND 00Z GEFS BOTH SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE EARLY CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON TUESDAY...WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE U70S AND L80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL MED RANGE MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE PASSAGE OF SLOW- MOVING UPPER LVL TROF OCCURS TUES NIGHT AND WED. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROF WILL SUPPLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTION TUE NIGHT...THEN DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PA ON WED. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF BTWN TUE-WED RUNNING ARND ONE HALF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BEST CHANCE FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE AREA. GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE A WARMING TREND THU-SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SYS PASSES OFF THE E COAST AND 8H TEMPS RISE A BIT ABV NORMAL. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND NEXT SUNDAY. DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY/DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN...CULMINATING IN THE BEST CHC OF RAINFALL WITH PASSAGE OF CDFRONT. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ONE WILL HIT A TAF SITE ARE VERY LOW SO DID NOT MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLIP TO MVFR AS FOG DEVELOPS TOWARD MORNING /IFR POSS IN A FEW DEEPER VALLEYS/. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z...WITH VFR DAY IN STORE. LOW AMPLITUDE H5 SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY... COMBINED WITH WEAK SSELY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/S-CENTRAL MTNS. OUTLOOK... TUE-WED...VFR-MVFR WITH OCNL SHRA AND SCTD TSRA. THU...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. FRI...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 070825 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING /EH.W/ HEADLINES FOR TODAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS REST OF SOUTHERN WI THRU MID-MRNG...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WL TAKE ITS TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS BY LATE MRNG...WHILE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE COOLER AIR AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN RESULT IN IN COOLER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HENCE WL LET EH.W EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AT 12Z AND IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTN. THIS AREA MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTN. 925H TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MRNG BEFORE SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH SRN WI FROM LATE MRNG INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL RH. THIS TEAMS UP WITH SOME 850-700MB FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS TO ADD SOME ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK THROUGH THE ELEVATED CAP AND PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION FROM LATE MRNG INTO THE EARLY EVE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTH...CLOSER TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO WL CONFINE SMALL CONVECTION THREAT IN SOUTH TO EVENING. .SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW TO BRING A NEEDED BREAK TO THE HEAT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH ONSHORE WINDS LIKELY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE MOST DAYS. THOUGH MUCH NICER TEMPS EXPECTED...NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR RAIN CHANCES. MODELS NOT SHOWING A CONSISTENT SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IN THE FLOW...SO KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING. UPPER RIDGING TO EVENTUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS WARMING UP A BIT...POSSIBLY BACK TOWARD THE 90S BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SRN WI. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS WL ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTION THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTS SWD. SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO PUT INTO TAFS. && .MARINE...FAVORING SHORT TERM NAM GUIDANCE WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS. NORTHERN LAKE MI BUOY GUSTING OVER 20KTS SINCE 04Z. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN...CREATING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY FROM 03Z/07 HAD MID-LAKE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER SRN LAKE MI AND AROUND 70 FARTHER NORTH. WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25KTS AT TIMES BEGINNING LATER THIS MRNG. HENCE WL BE ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH STAGGERED START TIMES...BEGINNING MID-MRNG IN THE NORTH AND LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN IN THE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WL CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT THINKING WINDS AND WAVES WL HOLD BELOW ADVY LEVELS FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062- 063-067>069. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046- 047-051-052-056>060-066. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ064- 065-070>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 051026 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 330 AM PDT THU JUL 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BETTER DAYTIME CLEARING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... STRATUS COVERED MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS...WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. MODIS TPW IMAGE SHOWED THE 1-INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES RETREATED TO CENTRAL/EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY AND FAR EAST SAN BERN/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE MODERATE DROP IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF NEAR-ZERO 850MB COMPUTED LI AND A CAP JUST ABOVE 600 MB...WILL KEEP TSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS RH IN THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER...SO AREAS 3-10 MILES INLAND THAT DID NOT CLEAR WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE PACIFIC...BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALSO RETROGRADE WEST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NE US. THUS...EXPECT A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FRIDAY/SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 8-15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT MTN/DESERT TEMPS WILL BE 1-5 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES AND THE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COASTAL EDDY...SO STRATUS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE. THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER UTAH...SO THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL HAVE GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ECM/GFS HAVE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSTORMS OVER THE MTNS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FURTHER INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THE MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 600 MB THOUGH...SO TSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE ISOLATED...BUT WITH A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE TSTORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MORE TROUGHING OFF THE PAC NW COAST COULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND HENCE WEAKEN THE MOIST SE FLOW THU/FRI. && .AVIATION... 050808Z...THROUGH 1800 UTC OVC STRATUS OVR WATER TO 30SM INLAND WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL AND TOPS 2500-3000 FT MSL OTRW SKC. BTWN 1800-2000 UTC BKN-SCT STRATUS RETREATING W TO COAST...AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVR MTNS IN THE 8000-15000 FT MSL LAYER. BTWN 06/0200-0400 UTC OVC STRATUS MOVING INLAND 25-30SM WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL...AND CUMULUS OVR MTNS ENDING. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MAXWELL AVIATION...BALFOUR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 050227 AAA AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 927 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... 925 PM CDT ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST. THE HOT TEMPERATURES OF TODAY ARE SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS INCHING UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE MIXING OF THE DAY SUBSIDED. HEAT INDEX READINGS IN CHICAGO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 100 AT 9 PM...WITH MINIMUM VALUES ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S IN CHICAGO WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN OUTLYING AREAS ARE STILL FAVORED. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SHALLOW LIGHT FOG TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE THERMAL INVERSION IN OUTLYING AREAS...AS 9 PM OBSERVATIONS AT RPJ OF 80 OVER 76 AND PNT OF 82 OVER 77 HINT AT. LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY...A LAKE BREEZE REMAINS FAVORED IN LATEST GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT WITH WIND FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 5-8 KT LESS THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO SE WI TODAY WHERE THE SYNOPTIC WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LESS...THE LAKE BREEZE IS FAVORED TO INCH VERY SLOWLY INLAND AGAINST THE WEST SOUTHWEST WIND. MUCH OF THE LAKE COUNTIES STILL WILL BE SEEING HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 110 DUE TO BOTH THE LIMITED INLAND IMPINGEMENT AND THE FACT THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH AFTER THE HIGHS ARE REACHED /HIGH AT ORD TODAY WAS EARLY AT 133 PM/. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE ARE SMALL...BUT ARE NON-ZERO. THERE IS SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID-LEVELS FORECAST FROM THIS EVES RAOB READINGS. FORECAST MLCIN IS NEAR ZERO IN NORTHEAST IL. THE 04.18 NAM HAD THE CENTRAL MN SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TONIGHT DRIFTING OVER THAT AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE MOST RECENT NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER. IF THAT SLIGHT IMPULSE CAN INTERACT OVER THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...IT MAY NEGATE ANY CIN FOR WIDELY SCATTERED BUT PROBABLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF NOTE...ON THE MODIS AND GOES VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY AND THIS EVENING WAS QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE IN THE DAKOTAS...NE...MN...AND IA. NAM PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM 20000 FT AND HIGHER INDICATE THIS AREA SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE DISPERSED. THERE WERE NO INDICATIONS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THOSE UPSTREAM AREAS TODAY AND THIS EVE...BUT IF THAT WERE TO SETTLE CLOSER TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY MORE HAZE AND POTENTIALLY WORSE AIR QUALITY COULD DEVELOP. MTF && .PREV DISCUSSION... 445 PM CDT FORECAST FOCUS SQUARELY ON CONTINUATION OF INTENSE HEAT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10 PM CDT FRIDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMBED TO 95 TO 102 ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX NUMBERS UP TO 103 TO 108. NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE 850KPA THERMAL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY IS TO BE SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE S ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL FOR THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN ONTARIO GETS FLATTENED BY THE UPPER LOW TRACKING E OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON THU THAT ARE A DEG OR TWO ABOVE TODAY/S...AND THEN FOR FRI AN ADDITIONAL DEG HIGHER OVER THU AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN MARGINALLY INLAND UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SO ANY RELIEF WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND SHORT LIVED AS LIGHT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHES THE HOT AIR RIGHT BACK OUT OVER THE SHORE LINE BY LATER THU EVENING. TIMING OF COOL FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE DURING FRI COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT BUT FEEL THAT THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN IL UNTIL VERY LATE FRI OR MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT. WEAK W TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING FRI WILL LIKELY ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND BUT NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SO FRI WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA WITH THE FAR NE CORNER OF IL LIKELY THE ONLY PART OF THE FA TO GET ANY REAL RELIEF UNTIL THE ACTUAL COOL FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MAX TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THU AND FRI THE LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS BACK UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S PER GUIDANCE WILL KEEP HI NUMBERS UP IN THE 105-115 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. WITH OVERNIGHT HEAT INDEX NUMBERS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 75 TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR ALL OTHER COUNTIES SURROUNDING COOK WHICH HAS IT/S OWN SET FOR THE CITY WILL BE REACHED SO ADVISORY EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RESULT IN LARGE VALUES OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUT LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND MID-UPPER DISTURBANCES LACKING THUS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED TS IF ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME AT A PARTICULAR SPOT. THUS...POP NUMBERS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL FRI NIGHT WITH THE COOL FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN IL. MODELS NOT BULLISH WITH PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER S SAT OR SUN SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING ALL OR PARTS OF THE FA FOR SAT THROUGH MON UNTIL BOUNDARY FINALLY GETS SHOVED ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IL TAKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ON EITHER SIDE OF IT OUT OF THE LOCAL FA. TRS && .CLIMATE... 925 PM CDT RECORDS... CHICAGO THU JUL 5 MAX 102 1911 MIN 82 1911 FRI JUL 6 MAX 99 1988 MIN 80 1977 ROCKFORD THU JUL 5 MAX 100 1911 MIN 77 1911 FRI JUL 6 MAX 102 1936 MIN 73 1948 THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR CHICAGO IS 105 ON JULY 24 1934... AND FOR ROCKFORD IS 112 ON JULY 14 1936. FOR CHICAGO THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS THREE...JULY 3RD THROUGH 5TH OF 1911...AND ALSO AUGUST 4TH THROUGH 6TH OF 1947. FOR ROCKFORD THE MOST CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS IS NINE...JULY 6TH THROUGH 14TH OF 1936. IZZI/TRS && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO SIT BETWEEN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LEAVES NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY LEADING TO SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PUSH GIVEN THE OPPOSING WINDS. SHOULD IT MAKE IT ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...WINDS WOULD SWITCH AROUND TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. ALSO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. THERE SHOULD BE DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE REACHING TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCE TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. BMD && .MARINE... 250 PM CDT A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES LIFTS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTH END BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE FRONT... WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THEN STRENGTHENING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM GUSTS UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE TIGHTENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR RESULTS IN NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE PERHAPS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008- ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021- ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY. IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY. LM...NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 240943 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 543 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING A BIT OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS AM. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 12Z. AS SFC HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...A RETURN SW FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. INCREASING MID LVL CLOUDINESS APPEARS LIKELY TODAY...ESP THIS AFTN...THE RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND WARREN CO. SATL DERIVED PWATS SHOW A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHICH MDL DATA SUGGESTS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL MTNS DRY TODAY. MDL 800MB TEMPS CLOSE TO 11C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE L/M80S OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SPC PLACING THE NW MTNS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX THIS EVENING FROM STORMS PRECEDING ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF SHOULD SUSTAIN TSRA AFTER DARK AS THEY CROSS LK ERIE INTO NW PA. SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AS REMNANTS OF STORMS MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA WITH FROPA...THEN MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE STATE BY AFTN. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMT OF CU BY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE N MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE M60S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE U70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A GUSTY NW WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL DATA INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY...WX TO CENTRAL PA THRU MIDWEEK. POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LPS RTS DURING TUE AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW PM SHOWERS OVR THE NE MTNS. MODEL DATA INDICATING A QUICK WARM UP LATE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING BUILDING HEAT OVR THE MIDWEST TO PUSH TOWARD PA. ECMWF MEAN 850 TEMPS BY FRIDAY CLOSE TO 20C...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 90F IN THE VALLEYS. WILL KEEP CHC OF PM TSRA IN THE FCST THU-SAT...AS PA WILL BE WITHIN RING OF FIRE ON PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE MISS VALLEY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS - THOUGH PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL FORM SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES - PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS IN VERY ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD...BRINGING SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO THE N AND W AFTER 04Z MON. BUT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. OUTLOOK... SUN NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. MON...VFR...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS MAINLY N AND E EARLY. TUE-THU...VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... OIL PUMP ON KCCX PEDESTAL HAS FAILED AND THE PART IS BEING RUSHED IN. AT THIS POINT...RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUN AFTN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR EQUIPMENT...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 230938 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 538 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK ERIE. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PA...HAS RESULTED IN A LONE SHOWER E OF IPT AT 09Z. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER BTWN 09Z- 11Z. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL END THE RISK OF SHOWERS BY ARND 12Z. MODIS 11-3.7UM PRODUCT SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. ANY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING MSUNNY SKIES AND MUCH LESS HUMID WX FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MDL 800MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE M80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MCLEAR SKIES...A CALM WIND AND DRY AIR MASS UNDER SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SIG RAD COOLING TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE. THE COOL TEMPS...COMBINED WITH WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AM FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HIGH PRES WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING OF RETURN SW FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS APPEARS LIKELY...ESP LATE...THE RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FCST. ALL DATA INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE OCCURS SUN NITE OR EARLY MON AM...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/TSRA. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF WILL SET UP OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS...BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY...WX TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LPS RTS DURING THE AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW PM SHOWERS OVR THE N MTNS THRU MID WEEK. ALL MDL DATA NOW POINTING TOWARD A QUICK WARM UP LATE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING BUILDING HEAT OVR THE MIDWEST TO PUSH TOWARD PA. ECMWF MEAN 850 TEMPS BY FRIDAY CLOSE TO 20C...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 90F. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE NOW SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SAT INTO SUN. IFR FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT LNS /WHERE SIG RAIN FELL FRI EVENING/ AND KBFD. ADDITIONAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL FORM ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TOWARD SUNRISE...FALLING MAINLY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NW. FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY SAT MORNING...WITH A VFR DAY AND GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS IN STORE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW/W AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 14-18MPH. OUTLOOK... SUN...VFR. ISOLD LATE AFT TSTM W LOCAL RESTRICTION POSS NORTH. SUN NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. MON...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS MAINLY N AND E. TUE-WED...PRIMARILY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 280718 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 318 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 ...PRELIMINARY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING BACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MADE LANDFALL NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA AT 1210 AM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED PER SATELLITE AND KJAX REFLECTIVITY DATA. NUMEROUS FEEDER BANDS ARE STILL WRAPPING AROUND ITS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STREAMING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY CENTER ON THE CONTINUED RISK FOR LINGERING LOW-END TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE PLACEMENT/EXTENT OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY. WITH BERYL NOW INLAND...STEADILY WEAKENING WILL ENSUE. MARINE OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST ALREADY INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS IS OCCURRING AND WOULD EXPECT THE RISK FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...TO BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH GEORGIA ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST. THE RISK FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAS GENERALLY ENDED FOR JASPER-BEAUFORT AND COLLETON COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY OCCURRING WITHIN TRANSIENT SHOWER ACTIVITY... SO WILL COORDINATE WITH NHC SHORTLY TO POSSIBLY CANCEL THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY. ANTICIPATE ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED BY THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT LATER THIS MORNING AS BERYL MOVES FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS BERYL BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER... WITH MODIS TPW PRODUCTS SHOWING PWATS IN THE 2 INCH RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR EVEN ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TO BE ISSUED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TO BE ISSUED. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOISTURE/SPEED CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LOWER CIGS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. ON MON...AWAY FROM THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...A DEEP MOIST PROFILE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER GUSTS A GOOD BIT BELOW SUNDAY/S SPEEDS. KSAV...AN INITIAL BAND OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL PRODUCED GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH BRIEFLY AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR 30 KT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ON TAP THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND SHOWER RISKS CONTINUE. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE CLOSER TO BERYL NEAR THE SWAMPS OF SOUTH GEORGIA. PREVAILING RAINS AFTER LATE MORNING HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT OF PICTURE UNTIL RADAR TRENDS DICTATE LATER. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TS BERYL OR REMNANTS IMPACT THE REGION. GUSTY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... CANCELLED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENTS...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH AND LINGERING LARGE SURF/SWELL WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY... TO BE ISSUED. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ116>119-137>141. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ114>119- 137>141. SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ047>049-051. MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... HYDROLOGY...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 240812 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 412 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. BY SUNDAY...THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE HIGH NEAR THE AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL TOT HE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THIS PERIOD NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A BAHAMAS. AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS VALUES...MAINLY FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT WITH LIFTED INDICES PROGGED BY VARIOUS MODELS FROM -3 TO -5 AND CAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. THE HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS OCCURRING WHILE BOTH THE 00Z/24 NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS DRY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEAS BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES SHOULD MAINLY BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO ADDED BY LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL CAUSE SOME WARMING...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE AT MID LEVELS...SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DESPITE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 90S INLAND. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE BELOW 20 PERCENT EACH DAY. THE FORECAST GETS MUCH TRICKIER ON SATURDAY AS THE MODELS GIVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EVOLVE. THEY ALL RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TRAPPING THE LOW AND PREVENTING IT FROM MOVING NORTH AND EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. AT THIS TIME...I PREFER A GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THAT WOULD PUT US ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY... AS WELL AS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS AND MORE CLOUDS WOULD ALSO MEAN LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO I ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. MY MAIN REASONING FOR PREFERRING THE GFS IS THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY SHOWN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR THE NAM SOLUTION TO WORK OUT...THERE WOULD ALREADY HAVE TO BE A DISTINCT SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND I DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. ALSO...THE LATEST ECMWF IS JUST COMING IN...AND SO FAR IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS THAN THE NAM. THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WELL DEVELOP A WARM CORE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THE LATEST MODIS SST IMAGES SHOW WATER TEMPS IN THE EXPECTED PATH AROUND 80F...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOLLOWING THROUGH WITH THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...BRINGING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA AND GIVING US A MORE TYPICAL THREAT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. OF COURSE...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL PLAY A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IT POSSIBLE THE LOW COULD STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...THEN WAIT FOR THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN AND START MOVING NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD...AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR LIKELY AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS SO HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 5SM BR FROM 08Z TO 12Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS OBSERVED AT KGGE AND EARLIER AT KMYR...BUT THINK THAT MVFG CIGS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF KCHS. POPS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MVFR VSBYS/CIGS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE A LITTLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTIER...AND THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS IN CONVECTION. && .MARINE... TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AOB 4 FEET. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RULE THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REGION WILL SIT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS BY SATURDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT BELIEF THAT THE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY UP SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING DOWN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...MTE SHORT TERM...ALSHEIMER LONG TERM...ALSHEIMER AVIATION...SPR/MTE MARINE...ALSHEIMER/MTE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 180940 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 540 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A CHILLY MORNING IN PROGRESS...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 30S AT 08Z WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF COOLING YET TO GO. THE LARGE TEMP DIFF BTWN WATER/AIR WILL LEAD TO FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...MUCH AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING PATCHY FOG FORMING AT 0730Z. AFTER THE CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THINGS UP QUICKLY. MDL 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S. SINKING AIR ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE APPROACHING CLOUDS OVR THE GRT LKS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL PA TDY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ANOTHER CLEAR AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVR THE STATE. MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD 40S STILL EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS WARM TO ARND 14C SATURDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE L80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AGAIN SEEMS LIKELY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRES RIDGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MED RANGE MDL GUIDANCE NOW CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTH UP THE EAST COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MOIST...EASTERLY LL JET AND UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. GEFS DATA SHOWING HIGHEST PWATS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY. OPER AND ENSEMBLE MDL DATA ALL INDICATE THAT AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF OVR THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE MDL DATA TO MENTION THE CHC OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA TUES-THURS. SUNDAY LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST PA. CLOUDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...BUT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A DRY AIR MASS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WILL FORM ACROSS NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE BY 13Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG/STRATUS AFTER 07Z AT KBFD. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW PRESSURE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 151747 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 .UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. VIS SAT SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO WORK INTO THE CWA...THOUGH SHOULD NOT INHIBIT TODAY\S HIGHS. INHERITED TEMPS AND SKIES ARE ON TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 18 UTC. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MOISTURE...AS SEEN BY LOW PWAT VALUES AND MODEL FCST/12Z SOUNDINGS...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...SPECIFICALLY NAM AND RAP...AND HOW THEY MIX DEWPOINTS. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PRETTY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS THOUGH...WITH MODELS ALL GENERALLY OVERDOING DEWPOINTS. THUS STILL NOT EXCITED AT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO OPTED TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS IN TAFS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. GOES SOUNDER SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.6 INCH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPSTREAM...PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCH BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. PWAT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HAVE BEGUN TO SEE 45 TO 50 DEGREE DEWPTS IN THE PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD WI. MODEL FORECASTED DEWPTS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO WARM...HOWEVER AGREE WITH SPC THAT SFC DEWPTS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S THIS AFTN. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOT GREAT DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SRN WI DOES GET CLIPPED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CAUSED BY SECOND VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR SRN END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AXIS OF 10 UNIT LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE AFTN...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENESIS. BEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTN ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...SO WENT WITH SCT WORDING. BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW THE TSTORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP POSSIBLY TAKE ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. HIGH LCL SHOULD PREVENT TORNADO FORMATION...AS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. SVR THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL PREVENT LAKE BREEZE...SO WL BE WARM AT THE SHORE AS WELL. HOWEVER LAKE MI BEACH GOERS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR RAPID COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER STRONGLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO APPROACH 70 BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS WI THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW TO MID 70S ON THU. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A LITTLE COOLER. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID CLOUDS WITH THE WAA AS WELL. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO SOUTHERN WI GIVEN THE SPRAWLING HIGH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND MODELS SEEM TO KEEP OVERESTIMATING THE DEWPOINT TEMPS BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN GENERATING PRECIP WITH THE WAA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS IT IN NORTHERN WI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FCST FOR NOW BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH. LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THERE COULD BE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THUS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI AS WELL. BY FRI AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD BE CAPPED...WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT SO TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT INTO WI AS EARLY AS LATE SAT NIGHT SO THEREFORE MENTIONED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE SO WILL HAVE TO SPREAD THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL DURATION WOULD BE LESS THAN A 12 HOUR WINDOW. TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE TEMP DIFFERENCE EXPECTED BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTH. EXPC THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLD TO SCT THUNDER MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40-50KTS NEAR THOSE STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINE...LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON REVEALED LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI. FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE HAD SST IN THE MID 60S WHILE LARGE EXPANSE OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S. SUNSHINE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25KTS OVER THE SHORE AREAS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MIXING...HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY WL BE POSTED. GUSTINESS WL DIMINISH FARTHER OUT INTO THE LAKE...WHERE COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. COLD FRONT WL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z...WITH WINDS TURNING RAPIDLY TO THE NNE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE WILL CAUSE THIS COLD FRONT TO ACT AS A PNEUMONIA FRONT...AND WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID WIND SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SFC TEMP...RISE IN PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30KTS DURING THIS FOUR HOUR PERIOD. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WL SETTLE DOWN BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...ET/DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 150846 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. GOES SOUNDER SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.6 INCH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPSTREAM...PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCH BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. PWAT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HAVE BEGUN TO SEE 45 TO 50 DEGREE DEWPTS IN THE PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD WI. MODEL FORECASTED DEWPTS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO WARM...HOWEVER AGREE WITH SPC THAT SFC DEWPTS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S THIS AFTN. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOT GREAT DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SRN WI DOES GET CLIPPED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CAUSED BY SECOND VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR SRN END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AXIS OF 10 UNIT LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE AFTN...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENESIS. BEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTN ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...SO WENT WITH SCT WORDING. BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW THE TSTORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP POSSIBLY TAKE ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. HIGH LCL SHOULD PREVENT TORNADO FORMATION...AS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. SVR THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL PREVENT LAKE BREEZE...SO WL BE WARM AT THE SHORE AS WELL. HOWEVER LAKE MI BEACH GOERS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR RAPID COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER STRONGLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO APPROACH 70 BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS WI THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW TO MID 70S ON THU. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A LITTLE COOLER. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID CLOUDS WITH THE WAA AS WELL. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO SOUTHERN WI GIVEN THE SPRAWLING HIGH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND MODELS SEEM TO KEEP OVERESTIMATING THE DEWPOINT TEMPS BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN GENERATING PRECIP WITH THE WAA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS IT IN NORTHERN WI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FCST FOR NOW BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH. .LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THERE COULD BE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THUS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI AS WELL. BY FRI AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD BE CAPPED...WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT SO TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT INTO WI AS EARLY AS LATE SAT NIGHT SO THEREFORE MENTIONED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE SO WILL HAVE TO SPREAD THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL DURATION WOULD BE LESS THAN A 12 HOUR WINDOW. TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE TEMP DIFFERENCE EXPECTED BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTH. EXPC THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLD TO SCT THUNDER MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40-50KTS NEAR THOSE STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON REVEALED LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI. FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE HAD SST IN THE MID 60S WHILE LARGE EXPANSE OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S. SUNSHINE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25KTS OVER THE SHORE AREAS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MIXING...HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY WL BE POSTED. GUSTINESS WL DIMINISH FARTHER OUT INTO THE LAKE...WHERE COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. COLD FRONT WL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z...WITH WINDS TURNING RAPIDLY TO THE NNE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE WILL CAUSE THIS COLD FRONT TO ACT AS A PNEUMONIA FRONT...AND WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID WIND SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SFC TEMP...RISE IN PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30KTS DURING THIS FOUR HOUR PERIOD. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WL SETTLE DOWN BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 290846 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 346 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DRIER AIR RIDING NORTHEAST BREEZES HAS RESULTED IN SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PUSHED FAR AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WL BE REMAINING SOUTHERLY JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SRN IA INTO NRN IL. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND AN INCH IN THESE AREAS. ALREADY SOME SCT -SHRA FORMING IN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN SE IOWA...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE THESE -SHRA BEFORE MAKING INROADS INTO SRN WI. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE VCNTY OF SOUTHEAST CO WL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS ERN IA AND WI TNGT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL PULL THIS DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WI. IN FACT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COMMENCING THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING OVER SRN WI THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WL LEAN A LITTLE MORE ON CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS LATEST NAM TRENDING TOWARD SLIGHTLY FASTER SCENARIO IN CARRYING MID LEVEL WAVE INTO VCNTY OF NERN IA BY 00Z/MON. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL FACTORS COME TOGETHER DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE ENHANCED FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z. WL BUMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS...WITH FAVORED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE EASTERN CWA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED T DUE TO STRENGTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OMEGA. IN THE SHORT TERM...STILL EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WL CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON MAX T. ONSHORE FLOW WL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER AS WELL. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF WI BY 12Z MON...BUT KEPT LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN TAPERED OFF THE CHANCES TO DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN INTO MON NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL 500MB SHORTWAVES ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW. THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER IN THE EAST. EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE BELOW GUIDANCE... RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORE TO THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND. WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THINGS DRY MON NIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CLOUDS WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. FLOW BACKS TO THE SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERN TROUGH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE EVENING. THERE IS REALLY NOT STRONG FORCING FOR THIS NEXT CHANCE...SO BACKED OFF ON POPS TO CHANCE INSTEAD OF LIKELY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS WI...AND SOUTHERN WI IS VAGUELY WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME. .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND ON TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY. CAPE INCREASES BY 00Z THU TO ALMOST 1500 J/KG...WITH LIFTED INDEX AROUND -7...DECENT SHEAR AND A BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER AROUND 40 PER THE GFS MODEL. THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOG SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND BASED ON PREVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS FROM PAST SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS...AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. SPC HAD SOUTHEAST WI MARKED IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THEIR SAT MORNING EXTENDED CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER PRODUCT /CWASP/ IN OUR OFFICE SHOWS MUCH OF WI IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SOUTHERN WI WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK OVERHEAD...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND ALSO FOR THU. STAY TUNED. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS THEN SHIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF WI THU NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI SO THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE TO CARRY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN SCOURING LOW CLOUDS. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH BKN-OVC MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHRA EXPCD TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPC CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR TNGT...AND POSSIBLY LOWER BY MON MRNG. && .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MI TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONSHORE RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND MID LAKE BUOY CONTINUE TO SHOW SRN LAKE MI SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXPC INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING LAKE SURFACE TNGT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KTS MAY BE FELT AT SGNW3 AND KNSW3 WHERE ANEMOMETER HEIGHTS ARE 60FT ABV LAKE SFC. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 192040 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 340 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA DEPICT THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TX/SRN PLAINS FROM THE WEST. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY THEN EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST AROUND 00Z SAT. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER/SFC FORCING APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...CIN APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR EXCEPT FOR THE NERN SECTIONS (NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THUS WILL ISSUE GREATEST POPS FOR THE NERN SECTIONS. THE NAM/GFS BRN IS PROGD TO DECREASE TOWARD THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE DRG THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FOR THE NERN CWA) CONCOMITANT WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER FORCING. CONCUR WITH SPC REGARDING THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE OVER THE NERN SECTIONS (DRG THE NARROW 21Z FRI-00Z SAT WINDOW.) WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z SAT. THE NAM PROGS ONLY WEAK/MODERATE MSLP RISES AFTER FROPA. THUS DO NOT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER LAND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM/LOCAL ARW/GFS SUGGEST BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS DRG THE 06Z- 12Z FRIDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ONLY FOR SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TNGT. WIND WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING... EXPECT STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS (MODIS ENHANCED SST COMPOSITE.) ANTICIPATE AT LEAST GUSTS TO GALE FORCE DRG THE 06-12Z SAT PERIOD. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE STRENGTH OF WINDS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF FIRE DANGER THREAT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW 925 MB WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 35 KNOTS AT 12Z SATURDAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY SO ONLY EXPECT FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO BECOME ELEVATED WHILE PREVIOUS RAINS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING. FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY. VERY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 81 58 78 53 / 10 40 40 0 0 VICTORIA 63 79 54 76 50 / 10 50 40 0 0 LAREDO 69 91 61 88 58 / 0 20 10 0 0 ALICE 65 84 58 82 52 / 10 30 30 0 0 ROCKPORT 69 78 60 76 57 / 10 40 40 0 0 COTULLA 64 86 56 84 50 / 0 20 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 66 83 58 80 52 / 10 30 30 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 70 78 62 76 61 / 10 40 40 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM TT/89...LONG TERM LK/84...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 130830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. PULLED TRIGGER ON DENSE FOG ADVY FOR SHEBOYGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. EVENING CLEARING ALLOWED TEMPS TO RAPIDLY COOL IN THESE AREAS TO DEWPTS. COLD SFC TEMPS AMPLIFIED LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH SHOULD PREVENT INCREASING WINDS DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO AFFECT SFC IN THESE AREAS UNTIL AFT SUNRISE. DOT WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG IS SPREADING IN HIGHWAY 43 AREA...AND SHERIFFS DISPATCH FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REPORTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. NRN PART OF WASHINGTON COUNTY ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO QUICKLY THIN AFTER 12-13Z. WL LEAN MORE ON CONSISTENT ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY...AS LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING TO THESE SOLUTIONS. MID-LEVEL PROTECTIVE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS INTO WISCONSIN. MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL NE REMAINS WELL WEST OF SRN WI TODAY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILER NETWORK PICKS UP WEAKER SHORT WAVE FARTHER EAST OVER ERN KS WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN WI LATER TODAY. SRN WI GETS BRUSHED WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH IS TIED TO IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES INCREASE ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH TODAY. STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OF -10 TO -20 UNITS FROM GFS BRUSHES WESTERN CWA LATER TODAY...SO WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY WORDING IN THIS AREA...AND KEEP CHANCE GRADIENT FARTHER EAST. DESPITE WARMER START TO DAY MOST AREAS...CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK...WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AROUND YESTERDAYS READINGS. SHEBOYGAN AND PORT WASHINGTON WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN...SO WL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION. WL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AS WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. WL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SLY FLOW HOWEVER WL PULL DEEPER LOW LEVEL RH INTO THE AREA FOR TNGT...RESULTING IN THICKENING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM VERY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING A SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE 15-16C RANGE...SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW 70S MOST PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN COMES OUT AT ALL. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THUS THINK SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH SPC NOSING THE SLIGHT RISK JUST INTO THE SW FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW BRINGING SFC LOW TO AROUND THE BORDER OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO NOSE RIGHT INTO SRN WI...WITH MODELS GENERALLY ALL KEEPING SFC WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAPE VALUES GET BACK UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE DAY...WITH A TON OF SHEAR AGAIN...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. WILL BE MILD AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS...BUT LOW OR EVEN MID 70S SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH UPPER 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME SUNSHINE. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM KEPT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...ALONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 50 TUESDAY. SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR MID WEEK...AS MODELS ALL GENERALLY SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING THOUGH THE AREA AT SOME POINT. TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS RESULTING INTO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POPS FOR INDIVIDUAL PERIODS...THOUGH PRECIP AT SOME POINT MID WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUDS TODAY BUT DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP CIGS VFR DESPITE INCREASING -SHRA THREAT LATE MRNG AND AFTN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL THIS AFTN SO WL HOLD OFF FROM INTRODUCING THUNDER IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SLY WINDS WL USHER DEEPER RH IN TNGT...WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS. && .MARINE...DESPITE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 18Z/12 SHOW LAKE SFC TEMPS BEYOND THE NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 5-6C. HENCE EXPC LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER LAKE MI TODAY...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. WIND GUSTS WL EXCEED 22KTS HIGHER THAN 1K FEET OFF LAKE. SECOND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THRU UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN WL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH EXPCD WMFNT TO BE NORTH OF SRN LAKE MI...GUSTY SW WINDS WL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS FROM SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-060. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 100831 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 331 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM....TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING WEAK FORCING FROM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CAUSED MID CLOUDS TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC CARRIES THIS WEAK WAVE ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SECOND WEAK WAVE OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL MN WHICH MOVES ON A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING BOTH OF THESE WAVES. WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...AND LINGERING THERMAL TROF...EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER ERN CWA...WITH MORE OF A BALANCE IN THE WEST. FOR NOW WL HOLD OFF ON M/CLDY WORDING AS EXPECTING SEVERAL PERIODS OF AT LEAST P/SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. WL DROP DODGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES FROM FREEZE WARNING EARLY THIS MRNG AS BKN-OVC SHOULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WITH KBUU AND KJVL IN THE LOW 30S...WL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING IN WALWORTH COUNTY AND POINTS WEST UNTIL 14Z. CLOUDS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL ONLY ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM PASSING LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BUT SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA. ALSO...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH THE DELTA-T AROUND 12C. HENCE WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDS AND TEMPS FALLING TO 28F OR LOWER LATER TONIGHT...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE. ALSO...REMOVED FROST WORDING TONIGHT DUE TO TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAINING HIGH. .SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE FOCUS AS CURRENT RELATIVELY COLD TREND CONTINUES WITH WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EASTERN TROUGH AND PLAINS RIDGE. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT 925MB TEMPERATURES MODIFY A BIT UPWARD WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO THAT LEVEL BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE STRATOCUMULUS HOLDING READINGS IN THE 40S. WEAK...SHEARED VORTICITY ON PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND WEST OF STATE SHIFTS BACK EAST ACROSS STATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AN OUTLIER...BRINGING A STRONG VORT SOUTHEAST FROM NWRN MN...REACHING SW WI/NW IL AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER COLUMN REMAINS DRY ON ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO NO POP...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES TO ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL HAVE PATCHY FROST...AND AREAS OF FROST WHERE LOW TEMPS FALL BELOW 30F. THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THURSDAY AS 850-700 MB RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. SURFACE HIGH ALSO CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY IN THE EAST. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEST...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EAST. NAM AND GFS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WILL TIME PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. LOWS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FRIDAY...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM WITH WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A WET END OF THE WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECT FROM WESTERN TROUGH. SOME PLACEMENT/TIMING DIFFERENCES WHICH MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND STORM MODE...BUT CONSENSUS BLEND BRINGS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WAA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY... BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE...TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SECONDARY WAVE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIODS OF MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS EXPCD TODAY AND MOSTLY ERN AREAS TONIGHT. SCT CLOUDS MAY APPROACH 3K FEET FOR A TIME TODAY AND IN THE EAST TNGT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NLY. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. && .MARINE...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM 17Z/09 MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS 4-5C AWAY FROM THE SHALLOWER NEARSHORE WATERS...CONFIRMED BY SOUTH LAKE BUOY TEMP. RESULTANT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE AS WELL AS OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS...WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVE. WL EXTEND ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVE TO ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING GUSTINESS. WINDS WL REMAIN GUSTY TNGT...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVY CRITERIA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-056- 057-062-063-067>070. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...REM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 070235 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 935 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012 .UPDATE...NEEDED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME EASTERN SITES. WITH DRY DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S LATE TONIGHT...THINK FROST POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND WL BE CONFINED TO LOW AREAS. HENCE CHANGED AREAS OF FROST WORDING TO PATCHY. EXPECT ISOBARS TO BE ALIGNED 30 DEGREES OR LESS WITH THE LAKE MI SHORE ON SAT. MODIS IMAGERY FROM 18Z FRIDAY SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HENCE EXPECTED THERMAL GRADIENT AND BAGGIER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HENCE WL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHETHER LAKESHORE MAX TEMPS FOR SAT NEED TO BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH NEW FORECAST. OTRW NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCT -SHRA WILL AFFECT TAF SITES SAT AFTN...BUT CIGS WL REMAIN VFR. MAY BE A BRIEF PD OF SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND CDFNT LATE SUN AFTN AND/OR EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPBZ 311727 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 127 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS BREAK UP TONIGHT IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1KM MODIS PIC AT 1522Z REVEALS THE SHALLOWEST CU OVER NRN WV WHICH LEADS TO STRATUS BECOMING OPEN CELLULAR THERE FIRST THEN SPREADING N INTO SWRN PA. DELAYED CLEARING BY SEVERAL HOURS AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOISTURE STAYING TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AT H9. ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVNG THEN RETURN A LAYER OF STRATUS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER I-80 AND NRN WV. KEPT MINT TONIGHT AOA WARMEST GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE THAT SIGNIFICANT. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS IN NW FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE AREA SUN AFTN. INCREASED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO LKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SREF PLUMES INDICATE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS NIL SO CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVR THE MS VALLEY WILL STEEPEN THE NW FLOW OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONT TO INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF QPF AS THAT FEATURE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE USED A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WRN STATES TROF IS FORECAST TO DVLP TWD THE PLAINS/WRN LAKES BY MONDAY NGT...PUSHING THE RIDGE ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BEFORE DIGGING AN EAST COAST TROF BY THE END OF THE PD. GIVEN MDL DIFFERENCES...HAVE GENLY PERSISTED WITH THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT A BRIEF TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND MID WEEK CDFNT CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LONG TERM PD. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 2Z. A BRIEF PD OF CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEFORE STRATOCU RE-DEVELOPS AFT 7Z ESP AT FKL AND DUJ. FOR AIRPORTS THAT DO NOT SEE OVERNIGHT MVFR CLOUDS...EXPECT MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER EXPECTED. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ .SYNOPSIS...98 .NEAR TERM...98 .AVIATION...98  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 252047 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 247 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012 .DISCUSSION... SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z KEPZ AND MMCU SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE OVERALL. REGARDLESS...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD. HIGH BASED CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM KSRR NORTHWARD TO KCQC...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. RADAR DATA INDICATES SOME PRECIP IS FALLING...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS...ITS NOT LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. ADDITIONALLY...THUS FAR...ITS NOT BEEN VIGOROUS ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHTNING PRODUCTION EITHER. STRUGGLED WITH WHAT TO DO WITH POPS/WX FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRODUCING ANY QPF ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...GFS HAS AS WELL...THOUGH STILL PRODUCES SOME. OPTED TO KEEP 10-POPS/DRY T/GUSTY WIND MENTION FROM KCQC SOUTH...WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH LARGE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. REMOVED POPS NORTH OF THIS AREA THOUGH KEPT DRY T AND SPRINKLES MENTION FOR THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE SOME...THUS REMOVED POPS BUT AGAIN LEFT DRY T/SPRINKLES MENTION. NOT TERRIBLY CONVINCED THERE WILL BE THUNDER...HOWEVER. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MODERATED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST TODAY... HOWEVER...THE OTHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY TIED OR BROKEN THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE...INCLUDING THE ABQ SUNPORT...SANTA FE...RATON...LAS VEGAS...CLAYTON...AND TUCUMCARI. AS SHORTWAVE GLANCES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP AND SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE IN THE EAST THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER BEFORE THE PSUEDO-DRYLINE PUSHES INTO TEXAS. OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND. WILL LIKELY NEED A FEW WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE SFC GRADIENT IS THE STRONGEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE GULF MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK INTO OUR SE ZONES UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. IT MAY SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WHERE BETTER GULF MOISTURE RESIDES THURSDAY AFTN/EVE ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER. OTHERWISE... TUESDAY-FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. 34 && .AVIATION... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER LOW/TROUGH TRACK INTO GREAT BASIN/COLORADO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS A WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME MAY SPARK ISOLD -TSRA G40KT. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT BUT MAY NOT REACH THE MAJORITY OF CHAVES OR ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. MOISTURE TO BE SWEPT EASTWARD MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH/LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN/COLORADO TONIGHT/MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WON/T RECOVER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL...WHERE ONLY FAIR TO POOR RECOVERIES AREA EXPECTED. IN THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS RECOVERIES WILL BE BETTER AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BACK TO NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS STILL INSISTING A WEAK PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS IS NOT VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT THE MODIS AIRMASS RGB/GOES H20 IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOMETHING ORIGINATING FROM WHERE MODELS INDICATE THE SOURCE REGION IS LOCATED. MORNING MMCU SOUNDING DOES SHOW LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS OF THIS WRITING...POTENTIAL FOR DRY CONVECTION TO REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS SWEPT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...DRY OTHERWISE...AND WINDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...WHICH SHOULD BOOST MIN RH VALUES A FEW PERCENT IN THE WEST. HAINES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 6 SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY OVER THE CURRENT WARNED AREA MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAKE SHORT APPEARANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND AT BEST FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR ARE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE FRIDAY WEATHER PATTERN...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...NO FOOLING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 40 64 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 36 64 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 36 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 29 61 23 66 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 27 60 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 31 67 23 70 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 34 65 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 27 69 27 73 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 31 58 24 59 / 5 5 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 67 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 43 66 36 66 / 5 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 66 28 67 / 5 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 36 56 27 56 / 5 5 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 59 24 59 / 5 5 0 0 TAOS............................ 34 66 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 43 66 33 67 / 5 5 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 36 75 27 74 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 46 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 70 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 73 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 44 75 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 48 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 42 81 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 68 36 68 / 5 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 43 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 70 35 69 / 5 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 68 36 68 / 10 5 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 42 71 38 72 / 5 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 38 73 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 43 66 41 68 / 10 5 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 50 71 36 71 / 5 5 0 0 RATON........................... 42 77 33 76 / 5 5 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 47 77 37 75 / 5 5 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 43 70 37 70 / 5 5 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 50 79 44 77 / 5 5 0 0 ROY............................. 50 76 41 75 / 5 5 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 56 82 40 80 / 5 5 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 52 80 43 79 / 5 5 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 55 84 45 85 / 5 5 5 0 CLOVIS.......................... 50 80 43 82 / 5 10 5 0 PORTALES........................ 54 81 43 83 / 5 10 5 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 49 86 41 87 / 5 5 5 0 ROSWELL......................... 53 86 42 87 / 5 5 5 0 PICACHO......................... 50 81 44 83 / 5 5 0 0 ELK............................. 46 74 41 77 / 5 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103. && $$ 34/99  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 210239 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 939 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 .UPDATE...EXPECT UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THINNING AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO BETTER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...AND WITH DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS SRN WI. WL LOWER TEMPS IN SOME NRN AND ERN LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS ON TUESDAY AS DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUH 850H ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN ALLOWING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS...DESPITE PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS. MORE RECORDS LIKELY TO TUMBLE ON WED. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPCD DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TAF PD. LOW LEVEL MIXING WL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS LATER WED MRNG AND AFTN ONCE AGAIN. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 18Z/20 SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP HAS WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT TO MID-LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST PREVENTING FOG FORMATION DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPCD TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOUND JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE DUE TO MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AFTN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RESULTED IN DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SFC. DEWPTS TUMBLED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S DURING THE AFTN AT SOME LOCATIONS RESULTING IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS FROM THE CENTRAL GTLAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY FOR WED. HENCE NOT EXPCNG AS LOW RH WED AFTN...BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS 30 TO 35 PERCENT. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT FOR RAWS SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 40 ON WED SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHED...BUT NOT REACHED AT THIS TIME. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 202340 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 740 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ANOTHER INCREDIBLY WARM DAY FOR MARCH IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S/AROUND 80F OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOCALLY ALONG THE SHORES AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ONE MORE SUMMERLIKE DAY IS ON THE WAY FOR WED...THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER AGAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALSO OVER THE W WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME PCPN. NRN PORTION OF THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT BY SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THRU MANITOBA AND THE FOLLOWING WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/SRN ALBERTA. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEND SFC COLD FRONT SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED. ALTHOUGH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE INVOLVED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING FROM WRN TX TO OK... MOISTURE FEED ALREADY PRESENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHRA. PER MORNING SOUNDINGS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING 300-400PCT OF NORMAL OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...STRONG/PERSISTENT FORCING WON'T BE PRESENT TO MAKE THE MOST OF THE AVBL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...HVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WOULD BE AN ISSUE. MAIN FORCING FOR PCPN WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVES PASSING BY TO THE N ALONG WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT SHRA TO BE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PROBABLY WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT...FCST WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW SE PROGRESS OF CHC/LIKELY POPS FROM W TO E TONIGHT/WED...AND ONLY AFFECTING THE W TONIGHT AND ONLY REACHING THE E LATE WED AFTN. GIVEN THE AVBL MOISTURE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL...BUT AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG/SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND BECOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE LAKE. IF SO...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE ONCE WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS WED. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM/SUMMERLIKE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN MOST PLACES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S...15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 40S WILL BE THE RULE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CLOUDS AND PCPN OVER THE W...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THERE WED. EXACT TIMING OF FRONT AND COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN TEMPS. FOR NOW...KEPT MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S/60S CLOSE TO THE LAKE. TO THE E...SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AGAIN OVER CNTRL UPPER MI...TRENDING DOWN TO THE 50S ALONG THE SHORE E OF KESC. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 CLOUDY WILL DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCLUDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHERE DRY WEATHER AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST. INCREASED POPS FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH BIG BAY...WITH A WETTING RAIN EXPECTED /OVER 0.10IN/ DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR INCREASING SFC PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND A WEAKENING AND EXITING COLD FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE SW THANKS TO THE 500MB CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES OF OK AND KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SHIFT TO MO BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HEDGE THE ONGOING FORECAST CLOSER TO THE STRAIGHT MODEL DATA TEMP WISE FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FINALLY EXITING EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SFC LOW SHOULD LINGER OVER SE MN AND S WI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO W HALF OF UPPER MI FRIDAY...AND THE EAST HALF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 20/06Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE 500MB ABOUT 50MI NW OF WHERE IT WAS ON THE 20/00Z RUN...WHICH WAS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE CANADIAN/ECMWF CONSENSUS. EITHER WAY...THESE MORE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW BETWEEN OH AND NC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY ON. WHILE A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL ONTARIO MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO BE ONLY A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION ON THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TRICKY...WITH A COLDER BLAST OF AIR BOTTOMING OUT TO AN AVERAGING -1C BY 18Z MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS IS ALREADY BEING INFLUENCED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4C /LOWEST AROUND 1.5C AT 12Z SUNDAY/. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A RETURN OF COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ROLL IN FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...IT SHOULD BE UNLIKE OUR CURRENT WARM SPELL. STILL...850MB TEMPS AROUND 8 TO 10C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BRING ABOUT A BRIEF WARMUP. A STRONG MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...AND SFC LOW CROSSING MN TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE FORECAST THEN INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KIWD AND KCMX. ARRIVAL OF PCPN TO BE DELAYED UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO FRONT BUT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WILL SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WITH STILL A LITTLE SNOW COVER LEFT AT KCMX PER LATEST MODIS IMAGERY...EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP THERE OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG TO ALSO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KSAW AS WELL BUT SHOULD STAY IN MVFR CATEGORY. AS SHALLOW COOL AIR ENHANCED BY MARINE LAYER ADVECTS INLAND WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT KIWD ABOUT THE TIME THE PCPN ARRIVES EARLY WED MORNING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT KCMX/KIWD BY MIDDAY AS FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS. AT KSAW...EXPECT LLWS AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THERE OVERNIGHT BUT WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP VSBYS MVFR OR BETTER. OTHERWISE KSAW WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE WIND REGIME AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ON HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING MAY GUST TO AROUND 25KT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH TYPICALLY HAS STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. CLOSER TO THE WATER SURFACE AND DEEPER IN THE CHILLY STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SOME AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...ARE LIKELY OVER THE LAKE THRU WED...THOUGH THE FOG COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DENSE LATER TONIGHT/WED AS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE AND FRONT PROVIDES LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC THU/FRI AND LOW PRES DRIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS MAY END UP STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE WINDS TO THE W OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 20KT OR LESS SAT INTO SUN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...RJT MARINE...ROLFSON  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 161012 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 612 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 A BROAD MID-LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING GENERALLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY FILTERED THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASING 925-900MB MOISTURE FM THE SOUTH COULD LEAD TO SCT OR BKN HIGHER BASED CU AS IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. MIXING AOA 900MB SUPPORTS HIGHS INLAND FM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 70S OVER THE FAR WRN U.P. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ENHANCED BY ALREADY PRESENT GRADIENT S/SE WIND ON FLANK OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 40S COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI WHICH COULD RECEIVE ADDED MOISTURE IN S-SE FLOW OFF LAKE MI. WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN COUNTIES...BUT DRY AND WELL CAPPED MID-LVLS FROM FCST SNDGS SUGGEST DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR INITIATING SHOWERS. GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE THE WARM FRONT HANGING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ERN COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS SHOW MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT AGAIN MLCIN VALUES INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE SO NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT. WITH WAA IN MODERATE SSW FLOW EXPECTED...DECIDED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO REG GEM VALUES WHICH SUGGEST THAT MIXING TO 875 MB SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOWER 80S FAR WEST IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SSW OFF LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS EAST HALF...FROM LOWER 50S ALONG LAKE MI TO MID 60S WELL INLAND. .LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT PUSHING N OF THE AREA THROUGH SRN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES THAT WOULD BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LLVL MOISTURE. SO OTHER THAN MAYBE A FEW CU DEVELOPING BELOW THE STRENGTHENING H850 INVERSION...EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR LK MI AND E...AS THE FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MIXING TO NEAR H850 WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S OUT WEST AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP TOWARDS THAT. WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER OVER THE E WITH THE SRLY FLOW OFF LK MI AND HAVE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER SRLY WINDS WITH THE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN IS FOG OVER LK MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR AND HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PUSH WITH THE SSE WINDS. HAVE TRENDED THEM A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND...BUT OTHERWISE DIDN/T MAKE MANY OTHER TWEAKS. PERSISTANT GRADIENT WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS AND LOWS UP. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MID 40S OVER THE E AND LOWER 50S OVER THE WEST. EXTENDED /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOMALOUS H500 HEIGHTS...AROUND 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-LATE MARCH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TROUGH OVER AMPLIFYING AND MOVING OVER THE SW CONUS WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE UPSTREAM AND LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING UNDER SRLY FLOW KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH N INTO CANADA ON MON AND START THE SLOW EASTWARD TRANSITION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT. WITH THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND SRLY FLOW...STRONG H850 CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE AND KEEP THE AREA DRY. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BACKING AWAY FROM THE COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...SO EXPECT DAYTIME PERIODS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING OVER LK MI/SUPERIOR...EXPECT FOG POTENTIAL TO BE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE SPREAD THIS A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OFF LK MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND TAPERED BACK IN THE DAY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON DEPTH OF MIXING...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S OR LOWER 70S OVER THE WEST AND 50S OVER THE EAST WITH THE COOLER FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN. AS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...00Z GFS ENS MEAN MERGES THE UPPER LOW BACK INTO THE FLOW AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE UPPER MISS VALLEY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GEM/ECMWF ENS MEANS DO THE SAME THING...BUT ARE SOME HINTS OF IT REMAINING CUTOFF A LITTLE LONGER. EITHER WAY...THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO IN ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES FOR THE WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS FINALLY MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PCPN CHANCES FOR THURS WILL DEPEND ON IF THIS BOUNDARY DROPS SE OF THE AREA...AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z ECMWF...OR HANGS UP AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BUT THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION LATER THIS EVENING AS DEW POINTS BEGIN TO SURGE OVER THE AREA. THE BEST CHC OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KSAW IN AN UPSLOPE SSE FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES REGION. VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A S/SE WIND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE. AT SOME POINT...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...KEEPING FOG POTENTIAL LIMITED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE REMAINING SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOW IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SOUTH CENTRAL IS WITHOUT SNOW...BUT MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN STILL HAS SNOW COVER DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE SHOWN SLOW AND STEADY RISES THIS WEEK...BUT SO FAR NONE HAVE EXCEEDED SPECIFIED BANKFULL VALUES. WITH THE REMAINING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN...STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SITES REACHING BANK FULL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 WITH THE VERY ANOMALOUS WARM SPELL WE HAVE BEEN IN...THOUGH IT WOULD BE GOOD TO SHOW WHERE THE NWS MARQUETTE OFFICE STANDS ON SEVERAL MARCH RECORDS. YESTERDAY/S HIGH OF 51 HAS KEPT THE 50 DEGREE DAY STREAK ALIVE...WHICH HAS NOW REACHED 6 DAYS. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR 50 DEGREE DAYS IN A ROW DURING MARCH STANDS AT 7...WHICH RAN FROM 3/24/1993 TO 3/30/1993. THIS SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD REACH DOUBLE DIGITS. WE HAVE HAD SEVEN 50 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH THUS FAR. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR 50 DEGREE DAYS OR WARMER IN MARCH IS 13 AND SET IN 2010. WITH THE WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE BROKEN. BUMPING UP TO 60 DEGREE OR WARMER DAYS IN MARCH...5 IS OUR ALL TIME RECORD FROM 2000 AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 2 DAYS...THE 11TH AND 14TH. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 60 AT NWS MARQUETTE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MOVING ON TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 21.9 DEGREES FOR THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE...WHICH CURRENTLY RANKS 4TH FOR MARCH AS A WHOLE. THE ALL TIME RECORD IS 25.9 SET IN 1973...SECOND IS 22.4 IN 2010...AND THIRD IS 22.2 IN 2000. LOOKING AT AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES...THROUGH YESTERDAY WE ARE CURRENTLY TIED FOR THIRD WITH 1987 AT 40.6 DEGREES. THE ALL TIME WARMEST AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH IS 47.1 DEGREES FROM 2010...WITH THE NEXT VALUE OF 43.5 IN 2000. WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...WE WILL LIKELY REACH 2ND ON THE LIST. TO MATCH THE ALL TIME RECORD...WE WOULD NEED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER 53 DEGREES FOR A HIGH EACH DAY THE REST OF THE MONTH. THIS MARCH WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST EVER. FINALLY...THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT NWS MARQUETTE IN MARCH IS 44 DEGREES...SET ON 3/31/2010 AND 3/13/1995. THE WARM AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THIS RECORD TO BE BROKEN. WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP DATE BACK TO 1961. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS HYDROLOGY...SRF CLIMATE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 142041 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 340 PM CST WED MAR 14 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...AND THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMED INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE STRATUS IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR WESTERN WI STAYED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...PROVING THAT WE WERE UNDER A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET AGL. THE CU ARE VERY SHALLOW DUE TO THE CAP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. THE HRRR AND SPC 4 KM WRF NMM SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...KEPT WITH THE TSTORM THINKING. HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG. GIVEN DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON /CROSSOVER TEMPS/ AND FORECAST TEMPS TO COOL LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH/WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT COMES OVERHEAD...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICTURE THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SO DRY AND TEMPS ARE SO WARM TODAY THAT THEY MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MID THU MORNING. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS QUICKER WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE NAM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS COLD FRONT SCENARIO PAINTS A DREARY PICTURE FOR MILWAUKEE ON THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR A TIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKE. LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS WERE BETWEEN 37 AND 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT PER MODIS IMAGERY YESTERDAY EVENING. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON THU. THE CANADIAN BRINGS IT ALL THE WAY TO MSN AND THE NAM DOES NOT. TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE ON HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGED FARTHER SOUTH DEEPER INTO NRN IL AT START OF PERIOD. WITH MOIST LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW INVERSION EXPCD TO CONTINUE...WL CARRY FOG MENTION THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONFINE TO THE EAST...CLOSER TO COOL LAKE MI ON FRI. MAY BE UNDERDOING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BUT CONCERNED ABOUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH THU NGT INTO FRI. DEWPTS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NRN PLAINS. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS BOUNDARY LAYER GETS BETTER MIXED FRIDAY MRNG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. CAPPING DOES DECREASE FRI AFTN BUT LACK OF ANY TRIGGER PRECLUDES ADDING ANY POPS FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE APPEARS FRI NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE. COINCIDENTALLY... WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAUGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THRU SRN WI. WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BRUSHES SRN WI AS WELL...SO ENUF EVIDENCE TO WARRENT ADDING SCHC POPS FRI NGT...CARRYING INTO SAT. BULK OF SAT SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER AS WK FORCING WL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY. SAT EXPCD TO BE WARMER MOST LOCATIONS WITH BETTER SLY SFC WINDS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS PERIOD. APPEARS AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM LONG-WAVE TROFFING WL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF SRN WI FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. RIGHT THROUGH 00Z/22...GFS 500H 5 DAY MEAN HEIGHTS REMAIN 100 TO 200 METERS ABV NORMAL ACRS SRN WI. HOWEVER...GFS DIVERGING FROM OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MID-WEEK WITH UPSTREAM PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO BACK SIDE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN LONG WAVE TROUGH EDGING SLOWLY EWD THRU CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SFC FRONT MOVING THRU AREA LATE TUE NGT AND WED. MEANWHILE...LAST SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PERSISTENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER ERN CONUS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK...PREVENTING EWD PROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...GFS TRENDING TOWARD CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WOULD EVENTUALLY GET NUDGED NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK BY UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHING TOWARD WEST COAST WED NGT AND THU. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING CUTOFF LOW...BUT SEVERAL MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HPC LEANING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION...WHICH WOULD BE REASONABLE CONSIDERING BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WL BE LOWEST IN THE LATE PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS INLAND...WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COOLER. LATEST MODIS IMAGES SHOW LAKE MI LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE REMAINING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ANOMOLIES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. IN THE EARLIER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR THUNDER SAT NGT INTO SUN AS PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WARM MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS SRN WI AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE. CAPPING INVERSION PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT PRPN THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/... ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE SOME FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFR FOG OR IFR CEILINGS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE TO PUT INTO TAFS. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING DENSE FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MID THU MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS COLD FRONT SCENARIO PAINTS A DREARY PICTURE FOR MILWAUKEE ON THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR A TIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKE. && .MARINE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN A NORTHEAST FLOW AND LAKE COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS MOIST AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. && .CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 021128 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 328 AM PST FRI MAR 2 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN COMES IN THE FORM OF A STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...COLD AIR OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST. SINCE GROWING SEASON HAS JUST STARTED FOR THE COAST, ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE REDWOOD COAST. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE MENDOCINO COAST BECAUSE TEMPERATURES THERE ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM UP BY LATE MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A NICE DAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO DEL NORTE COUNTY, BUT OTHER THAN THAT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE MODERATING AIR MASS, THOUGH PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AGAIN. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT, MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME INLAND TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE COAST MIGHT HIT 60 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. ENJOY THE GOOD WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN COMES IN THE FORM OF A STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BUMPED UP POPS TO REFLECT THIS. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE QPF AMOUNTS, BUT SNOW LEVELS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE PASS LEVELS. BEYOND THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS, SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY CLIMO POPS IN THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION...05Z MODIS 11-4U IMAGERY SHOWED FG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH OBS AT FOT AND O54 REPORTING VLIFR ATTM. EXPECT FG TO DISSIPATE BY 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT FG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT MAY INHIBIT FG DEVELOPMENT TO THE COAST. && .MARINE...NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING OFFSHORE S OF CAPE MENDO. LGT TO MDT NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... FREEZE WARNING FOR CAZ001. FROST ADVISORY FOR CAZ002. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ450-455-470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 282146 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 346 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (DEPICTED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) WILL EXIT THE SWRN CONUS AND ENTER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER TEXAS. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD BY DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE CWA WED. ISSUED LOW POPS FOR ISOLD SHOWERS FOR THE NERN CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NGT YET MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE NERN CWA. WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE CNTRL/WRN SECTIONS WED AFTN OWING TO PERSISTENCE. OWING TO STRONG WIND EXPECTED ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG OVER LAND...DECOUPLING NOTHWITHSTANDING. && .MARINE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE... INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE THAT WARMER SSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH MOMENTUM ALOFT TO GENERATE NEAR 20KT WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TNGT (VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WHICH EXPLAINS 20KT FCST RATHER THAN 25-30KT SINCE 925MB WIND EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35KT)...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/GFS (LOCAL WRF SFC WIND SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH.) WHEN CONSIDERING SST VALUES (SPORT MODIS SST COMPOSITE)... SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WIND DIRECTIONS...EXPECT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE THAT DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS AS WIND MAY PARALLEL THE SRN COAST. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY WARM DUE TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ONGOING SEA FOG FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECT EASTWARD...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTH TEXAS SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS GENERALLY PLACE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER A CAP IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LIMIT OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 66 79 65 80 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 VICTORIA 65 76 64 77 65 / 20 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 68 84 65 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 66 83 65 83 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 66 72 65 73 64 / 10 20 20 20 10 COTULLA 64 81 62 85 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 67 83 66 83 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 66 73 65 76 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RG/82...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 241039 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 439 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ISOLD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM PROGS AND MSAS ANALYSES REVEAL... STRONG PRESSURE RISES TO THE N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SUSTAINED SFC WIND TO REACH AS HIGH AS DEPICTED BY THE DETERMINSITIC NAM AND LOCAL ARW. WL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVSY AS SUSTAINED WIND OR FREQUENT GUSTS SHOULD REACH CRITERION. (CAVEAT... WIND MAY FALL BELOW ADSY CRITERION A FEW HOURS BEFORE EXPIRATION.) AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...NAM SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN MID/UPPER MOIST CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTN MAINLY OVER THE SRN CWA. CONCUR WITH THE NAM WITH REGARD TO THE TEMP TREND AFTER FROPA TODAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 50S BY MID MORNING YET RISING TO THE LOWER 60S BY AFTN. CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY SW OF TEXAS AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) WILL ENTER THE CWA/MSA AFTER 00Z SAT THEN EXIT BY 18Z SAT. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO GENERATE SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TNGT/SAT. ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NAM MOS OWING TO CLOUD COVER/DECREASING CCA. YET...COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. FCSTG HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NAM MOS YET COOL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER/AIRMASS. && .MARINE...COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SEA FOG TO DISSIPATE AND WL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVSY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SCA OVER THE BAYS WHEN CONSIDERING STRONG MSLP RISES AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS OVER LAND (ALSO CONSIDERING THE SST VALUES BASED ON THE MODIS ENHANCED SST COMPOSITE PRODUCT.) SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT YET WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHFIT FOR TIMING. && .FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND TRENDS TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUES ARE HOW TO HANDLE POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLE FRONT WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. WARM UP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING UPPER TROUGH AND CONSEQUENTLY... HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE HIGH SO DO NOT THINK TOO MUCH OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY. ECMWF...WHICH IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH...IS BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN...WHICH IS SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH WITH TROUGH...GENERALLY KEEPS FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF AREA FOR TUESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSSIBLE LIFT FROM UPPER TROUGH...AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL ENTRANCE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF IS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FETCH...SO WILL MAINTAIN A WARM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY (MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS) AND ALSO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY (PROBABLY TOO CAPPED FOR THUNDER). WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OVER THE SAME AREAS...AND FOLLOW THE GFS MOS MORE FOR TEMPERATURES. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 62 45 55 44 68 / 20 30 50 10 10 VICTORIA 60 43 55 38 67 / 10 20 40 10 10 LAREDO 65 43 57 46 71 / 20 50 30 10 0 ALICE 62 44 54 41 70 / 20 40 50 10 10 ROCKPORT 61 48 55 43 66 / 20 20 50 10 10 COTULLA 66 43 56 40 68 / 10 30 30 10 0 KINGSVILLE 64 45 55 41 69 / 20 40 50 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 62 49 55 49 65 / 20 30 60 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN... DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO... VICTORIA...WEBB. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM GW/86...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 200941 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 341 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH A BIT MORE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LOWER MI AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO THRU KS BY 00Z/TUE. QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW SPREADING NORTH AND EAST IN THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FORTUNATELY THE MID-LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN WARM TO ABV NORMAL BY MID-AFTN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LAKE WL KEEP LAKESHORE LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AS LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY 36 TO 39 DEGREES. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO FAR WRN WI AND ERN IA BY 12Z/TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 0.5 INCH DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO 40-50KTS AHEAD OF TROUGH. RAPID LOWERING OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO LESS THAN 10MB WITH 15 TO 25KT UPGLIDE ON 290 THETA SFC. DESPITE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOT BEING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 3H JET ACROSS SRN WI BTWN 06Z AND 15Z/TUE. THERMODYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS AIR MASS MOISTENS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN WI. ALL TECHNIQUES INCLUDING ROEBBER AND COBB FAVOR AROUND A 12-13 TO 1 SLR. HEAVIEST QPF OVER 0.10 LIKELY TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST SO SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA BY 12Z. WL BUMP UP POPS MOST LOCATIONS. NOT SEEING MUCH FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FWF SO WL KEEP QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE VALUES. .TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH CURRENT MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SRN WI AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WENT WITH HIGH EARLY MORNING POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF TO MAINLY CHANCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MID LEVELS. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL SATURATION TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF MADISON. BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT...WAA ALOFT...AND A MILD SW FLOW AT THE SFC...WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH...OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...ABOVE MENTIONED TEMPERATURE SETUP SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO SNEAK BACK TO AROUND 40. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT NEW SNOW WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 40S...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 30S...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE SNOW TO MELT AFTER IT STOPS SNOWING. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF SUNSHINE...SO DID NOT GO WITH WARMEST GUIDANCE. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM STILL A BIT OF A MESS MID WEEK WITH MODEL AGREEMENT AND GENERAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. OVERALL PICTURE IS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SECOND ONE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST. BIG ISSUES WITH WHERE MODELS DEVELOP THE SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HARD TO PIN DOWN A LOT OF THE DETAILS...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE CONTINUED MILD PATTERN...SO WENT WITH CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH RIGHT OVERHEAD...THEN DRY SATURDAY. .SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW THROUGH SUNDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON THE LOW UNTIL MONDAY...PUSHING IT THROUGH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPES...SO JUST WENT WITH CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERSPREAD SRN WI AFT 06Z TNGT. WINDS TNGT WL EXCEED 40KTS AT 2K FEET SO WL INTRODUCE LLWS REMARK. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER LWR MI PUSHES FARTHER TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WNDS WL ALLOW GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP 2-4C FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO MID-LAKE. WL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE TUE MRNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RETIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE BEHIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MI TUE MRNG RESULTING IN THE TEMPORARY LULL IN WIND SPEEDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 180907 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 307 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH FLURRIES ASSOCD WITH INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAVE PUSHED TO THE EAST OF KSBM CWA AS WELL. APPEARS NAM OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING RIDGING AND SHORT WAVE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...WL CONTINUE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN MOST AREAS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS DESPITE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THERMAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EAST. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S MOST AREAS. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PUSH ASHORE FROM KMKE SOUTH TO KENW AFT MIDNIGHT TNGT. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO EXPC FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. .SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY...MAY SEE LAKE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST...PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MID 30S ANTICIPATED. .MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH ENOUGH OVERLAP IN MODEL TIMING OF THE LOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH VARYING TIMING AND TRACKS OF THE LOW. THUS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS THAT MUCH FOR NOW. ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS AND SOMEWHAT IN GFS SOUNDINGS TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SLEET TO GO WITH SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY. WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING MONDAY...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE EVEN MILDER TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM A PAIR OF SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SIZABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW WED/THU AND SNOW FRI. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH FLURRIES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND CDFNT EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD RAPIDLY THIN AND PUSH TO THE EAST LEAVING VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PD. SOME CU MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...BUT COUNTING ON STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP CU MVFR AND SCT-BKN. HENCE WL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WRT SKY CONDITIONS WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. MVFR LAKE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT ERN TAF SITES AFT MID TNGT. && .MARINE...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MRNG. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNED TO THE NORTH UPON FROPA AND INCREASED TO 10 TO 20KTS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LAKE TEMPS AROUND 4C SO ESTIMATE NEARSHORE LAKE TEMPS AROUND 1-2C. ENOUGH STEEPNESS TO THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS TO 22-25 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z...BUT NOT EXPCD TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVY. NORTH WINDS WL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE WRN GTLAKES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 111039 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 439 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OWING TO UPPER CONVERGENCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/NRN TEXAS TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA. CONCUR WITH THE NAM/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60S SW. CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY APROACHING WEST CNTRL MEXICO...WILL ENTER THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS PROGS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO COMMENCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 295K AND 300K ISENTROPIC LEVELS... ANTICIPATE LIGHT RAIN TO COMMENCE OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. WITH REGARD TO TEMPS TONIGHT...SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. YET...WEAK CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT LOWEST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL/NE CWA. SUNDAY...COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS AS EXPECT PCPN TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 NW TO MID/UPPER 50S SE...CLOSE TO THE NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATIFORM RAIN. DESPITE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOT EVEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED WHEN CONSIDERING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. && .MARINE...AS CAA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DETERMINISTIC NAM SUGGEST AT LEAST SCA WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS YET SCEC LIKELY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONCUR WITH THIS SOLN ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING 50S/NEAR 60S SST VALUES NEAR THE COAST (BUOYS/SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE) TO THE MID/UPPER 60S SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (MODIS SST). RETAINED THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTENDED SUCH TO 00Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THINK RAIN IS STILL LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF HAS DECREASED A BIT FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. HAVE ALSO NOTICED THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA SEEMS A BIT WEAKER...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY A FACTOR IN THE LOWER PROGEGD QPF. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STILL GOING LIKELY POPS WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION STILL FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD QUICKLY END PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWER 70S BY MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST LOW EJECTS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST. WITH CONTINUED CHANGES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT...CONTINUING TO GO CONSERVATIVE ON POPS WITH 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 57 46 57 56 72 / 0 10 50 60 40 VICTORIA 53 37 51 48 68 / 0 10 40 60 50 LAREDO 62 43 53 48 70 / 0 20 60 60 20 ALICE 58 43 55 53 71 / 0 10 60 70 30 ROCKPORT 56 45 55 54 70 / 0 10 50 60 40 COTULLA 57 40 47 45 68 / 0 10 60 60 20 KINGSVILLE 58 46 57 56 72 / 0 10 50 60 30 NAVY CORPUS 57 49 58 58 72 / 0 10 50 60 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM PZ/83...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 082124 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 PM CST WED FEB 8 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OR CLOUDS. DRY AIR IN THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY SEEP INTO SOUTHERN WI LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY OUT OF THE WEST TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE THU MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS/23 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THU AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WE COULD STILL RADIATE OUT FAIRLY WELL TONIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 37 NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THOUGH TEMPS MAY FEEL A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE WIND. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING VIGOROUS CDFNT NOW ADVANCING INTO SRN CANADA...FM 06Z-13Z FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCT -SHSN OVER SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN BFR DIMINISHING. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG DOWNWARD OMEGA ASSOCD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. HENCE WL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-NAM ALONG WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED FORCING OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY MRNG...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN. LAKE SNOW PARAMETER REACHS 1-2 UNITS ON FRIDAY INDICATING MDT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. NEW MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE MI SEA SFC TEMP AROUND 3.5C. THIS RESULTS IN THE DELTA-T INCREASING TO AROUND 17 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS 85H TEMPS PLUMMET TO BTWN 10 AND 18C BLO ZERO. 850-700H RH INITIALLY AROUND 90 PERCENT DECREASES TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTN WITH THE INVERSION HEIGHT ABV 6K FT. LAKE INDUCED CAPE OVER 200 J/KG. HWVR SEVERAL NEGATIVES FOR PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND INCLUDED BEST FETCH REMAINING 010-020 DEGREES AND FLUCTUATING WIND DIRECTION IN THE 1000-850H LEVEL. WINDS TURN TO 010-020 DEGREES BY 15Z FRIDAY...BUT THEN BACK TO 360 DEGREES BY THE EARLY AFTN. HENCE THIS FETCH WOULD FAVOR THE AREA FROM MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH TO THE IL BORDER FOR A PERIOD OF -SHSN ENHANCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE. GFS MEANWHILE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH LAKE EFFECT THREAT WITH WINDS REMAINING MORE NLY FRI AND FRI NGT. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT BTWN LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPCD FOR A TIME ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW WL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH BY THE LAKE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE CLOSE TO THE LAKE INTO FRI NGT DUE TO THE LINGERING N WINDS...BUT REMOVE THE THREAT ON SAT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SRN WI ON SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON SAT. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. APPEARS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WL TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT FIRST...QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER SRN WI THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL ON SUNDAY. LARGE RIDGE WL CONTINUE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM NRN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCE ACROSS WRN CONUS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN BRINGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GTLAKES MON NGT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE PWAT VALUES TO OVER 0.5 INCH. FOR NOW WL BUMP UP POPS TO BETTER CHANCE VALUES FOR -SN WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW. ABOVE SHORT WAVE WL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF WI BY TUESDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH MONDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE...THEY RAPIDLY DIVERGE BY MID-WEEK AS EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF NEXT STRONGER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE AND WED. MILDER AIR WL SETTLE OVER SRN WI BY MID-WEEK...SO THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE TIME PRECIP CHANCES RETURN ON WED. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THU WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WI. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WOULD CREATE HIGH WAVES FRIDAY...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. && .CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY...LOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 302151 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 451 PM EST MON JAN 30 2012 ...FIRES PRODUCING SMOKEY CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS... .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE NORTH...WITH A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... KCLX RADAR DATA AS WELL AS 1KM MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LOW HUMIDITY REGIME. THE FIRES ARE PRODUCING SMOKEY CONDITIONS WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 3-5 MILES AT TIMES. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF FIRES ARE GENERALLY CONFINED WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SO HAVE UPDATED OUR TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF SMOKE IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE AIR QUALITY ASPECT OF THE FIRES AS EPA GUIDANCE INDICATES VSBYS OF 3-5 MILES ARE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS. THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS NEAR DAYBREAK. THUS...UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COASTLINE WILL LIKELY BE MODERATED AROUND 40 DEGREES DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL PAST 70 FOR MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY LATER WEDNESDAY BUT KEPT IT RAIN-FREE FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND POSSIBLY EVEN PUSHES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED BACK A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY BUT LIKELY NOT MUCH DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN WILL UNFOLD DURING THE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE DO SEE SOME CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS INTO A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INTO SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM DURING THIS TIME...WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND WE REMAIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL TROUGH...WE/LL SEE OUR RAIN CHANCES CLIMB FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SINCE THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS WILL ACTUALLY EVOLVE...WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...BUT IF THE WEDGE DOES INDEED FORM...TEMPS SATURDAY MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NOW IN THE FORECAST AND/OR THERE COULD BE A MUCH LARGER RANGE THAN WE CAN DEPICT SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND NW MOVES THROUGH...AT PRESENT IT LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WE DO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THOUGH ON TEMPS...WHICH WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR GROUND FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT IS EXPECTED...WITH SEAS GENERALLY DOWN TO 1 TO 2 FT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE IN THIS PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER/NEAR THE WATERS. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 301551 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 951 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012 .DISCUSSION...CONSIDERING THE NAM AND GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT AND SST VALUES (SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE)...INCREASED OFFSHORE WIND TO THE SCEC CATEGORY. BASED ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. YET...WILL RETAIN ISOLD THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN OWING TO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER DISTURANCE. THE LOCAL ARW AND THE NAM PROG MAX TEMPS GREATER THAN CURRENT FCST FOR THE WEST... YET RAINFALL (LRD CURRENTLY REPORTING LIGHT RAIN)/CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP RISE. WL RETAIN CURRENT TEMPS FOR NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012/ DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...CIGS WILL FALL TODAY AS RAIN WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HELP TO LOWER CIGS. EXPECTING CIGS TO FALL TO IFR AROUND 18Z AT KLRD...MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KCRP AND KALI...AND NOT TIL LATE AT KVCT. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNSET JUST FOR A SHORT TIME (MAINLY TAFS EAST OF KLRD)...BUT CIGS WILL GO DOWN AGAIN IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KCRP AND KVCT AND LIFR AT KALI AND KLRD BEFORE THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDS. FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...COULD BECOME DENSE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KALI AND KLRD BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH MVFR BR AT ALL BUT KALI WHERE WILL GO IFR. WINDS NOT TOO BAD TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY BUT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND NOT MUCH IN GUSTS DUE TO LIMITED MIXING. LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED SO NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT/THICKEST MID HIGH CLOUDS MISSING AREA (MAINLY SOUTH AND NORTHWEST OF CWFA). NEVERTHELESS...ENERGY FROM SYSTEM (Q/G FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE) ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (MAINLY 300K-305K) WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN STABILITY THROUGH 850MB...THINK MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...AND SOME OF IT MAY BE VIRGA AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER...COULD GET SOME THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTY THEN SLIDE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS AND MOISTURE REMAINS (CONVERGENCE SHOWERS). WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ABSENT. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW KEPT RAIN IN. CLOUDS/MOISTURE RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH TODAY WITH MANY AREAS NOT GETTING TO 70F. MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST LIKELY REMAINING STEADY IF NOT RISING OVERNIGHT. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING (MAYBE SOME SEA FOG TOO BUT IT MAY BE A BIT EARLY FOR SEA FOG FORMATION). WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING OUT TO THE WEST...WITH SOME 80S EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ACTIVITY (IF ANY) BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WED SHOULD FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS ENE COUNTIES WHERE BEST MOISTURE DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. GFS WANTS TO STALL THE BOUNDARY ALONG CRP/BRO CWA LINE WED NIGHT BEFORE WORKING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURS WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH STALLING OF THE FRONT. THE LATTER MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS WITH A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS IMPRESSIVE AND MOVES THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH FASTER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS ON THURS WITH LOW END CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. GULF MOISTURE THEN POURS BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THURS/THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WHICH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BRINGS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. FOR NOW WILL AGAIN BE CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES GIVEN LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DRYING CONDITIONS. VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEEKEND MAY TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MINS. A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES THEN EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES DURING MIDWEEK NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH PATCHY SEA FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 61 79 63 81 / 40 40 10 10 10 VICTORIA 69 57 76 62 79 / 20 40 20 10 20 LAREDO 67 61 81 62 82 / 50 20 10 10 10 ALICE 68 59 81 62 82 / 50 30 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 68 61 70 62 75 / 30 40 20 10 20 COTULLA 63 55 78 59 81 / 40 30 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 70 59 80 63 83 / 50 30 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 69 63 74 64 76 / 40 40 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 300335 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 935 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW FROM BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MN. STRENGTH OF FORCING OVERWHELMING DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FWF IN THE LOW LEVELS SWEEPS THROUGH SRN WI WITH THE WAA. AT THIS TIME...THINKING STRONGEST FORCING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL WI WL BE ABLE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...UP TO AN INCH. CENTRAL AREAS FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF -SN BUT SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS MUCH LESS...HENCE WL CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING FOR THESE AREAS. LIGHT SNOW THREAT PUSHES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH WAA BY 18Z. STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PD OF -ZL AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SRN WI MONDAY MRNG. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...THICKENING CLOUDS WL OCCUR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6K FT. BRIEF BURST OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TNGT AND MONDAY MRNG. POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN OR -ZL COULD AFFECT TAF SITES WITH CIGS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z MONDAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG. && .MARINE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE AROUND 2C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY MORNING SHOW A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 2K FEET...HOWEVER WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION STRENGTH TO AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO BRIEF NATURE OF STRONGER WINDS...WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVY AT THIS TIME...AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT TIMING. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MI LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 211028 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 428 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SWING A H5 TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WASHING OUT. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH HAVE PRETTY MUCH HINDERED MUCH OF DROP IN VISIBILITY. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VICTORIA AND CALHOUN. EXPECTING LAREDO TO BE LATE IN DEVELOPING FOG...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL DROPPING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER...SHOULD SEE FOG BECOMING DENSE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THE FOG MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE LOW CLOUD AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD HINDER MUCH HEATING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT. A BIT OF DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AFTER THE PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG WILL IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER NOT THINKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DENSE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT MORE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE LIFT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS EXIST. HOWEVER...DUE TO LACK OF HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL ONLY CARRY A LESS THAN 20 POPS. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN LIFT AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MOVG THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE WEST COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGD BY ALL OF THE FOREGOING MODELS TO ENTER TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY. THUS...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS GENERATING ONSHORE SFC WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACHING THE SCA WIND CRITERION OF 20KT (PROBABLY 15-20KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20-25KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING SST VALUES PER THE SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE PRODUCT. THE AFTER EARLY WEDNESDAY... MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING TIMING WITH THE SLOWER CANADIAN/GFS DEPICTING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS/LOW CENTER STILL WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE AXIS EAST OF THE CWA/MSA (STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE THURSDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY.) NEVERTHELESS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGD BY THESE THREE MODELS TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA WEDNESDAY THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THUS...THE COUPLING BETWEEN SURFACE AND UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. (GFS PROGS STRONGLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES/CAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG/LIMITED CIN.) THE GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT BRN VALUES IN THE MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL RANGES. FOR THURSDAY...THE ISSUE IS WHETHER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA/MSA OR SHIFT EAST. CONFIDENCE IN ECMWF GREATER THAN THAT OF THE GFS. NEVERTHELESS... WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF UPPER FORCING. FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT. THE CANADIAN OUTPUT (ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY) SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...CONCUR WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT SCENARIO. THUS...DRY FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 58 79 55 71 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 70 53 76 50 71 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 79 61 83 54 77 / 0 0 10 10 10 ALICE 78 58 82 55 74 / 0 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 69 58 75 56 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 76 53 81 48 74 / 0 0 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 79 58 81 56 73 / 0 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 72 58 75 58 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...WEBB. GM...NONE. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 132145 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 245 PM MST FRI JAN 13 2012 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE TEMPS AND THE PAIR OF SYSTEMS SCOOTING ACROSS NM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEING VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS...WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST FOR TOMORROW. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS WELL...THANKS TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...KICKER SYSTEM WILL HELP EJECT THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EASTWARD. AS IT MOVES EAST...IT WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO A WAVE. AS IT APPROACHES THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS WILL THE GRADIENT ALOFT. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WEST SLOPES SHOULD BENEFIT MOST FROM THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH ATTM...ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. KICKER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WEST SLOPES...THRU LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. PERHAPS THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND ON MONDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOASTING 700 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60KT...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 7 DEG C/KM...AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS ALL POINTS TO A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AS WELL AS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY START QUITE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS. AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES. SYSTEM NUMBER TWO MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS...COOLING TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS READINGS. QUIETER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. 34 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 50 && .FIRE WEATHER... VENTILATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BIT MORE AND MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAINS A CONCERN AND HAS DRIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND A POOR TO MODERATE RECOVERIES ACROSS MOST MID SLOPE AND UPPER RIDGE AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE STATE INTO SATURDAY. QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL SEE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH THE SNOW FIELD AREAS NEAR GRANTS AND WITHIN THE ESTANCIA VALLEY /AS INDICATED BY MODIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE MOIST. WEATHER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING THE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THAT TREND IN MONDAY. MADE VERY FEW TWEAKS TO THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WIND GRIDS. THE STRONGEST BREEZES SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BASED ON THE MIN RH FORECAST LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SANTA ROSA AND THE TEXAS STATE LINE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX FORECAST IS DEPICTED TO BE A 5 AND MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THERE. ALTHOUGH SNOW IN DECEMBER HAS HELPED TO FLATTEN SOME OF THE GRASSIER AREAS LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORTENED GROWING SEASON IN 2011. VENTILATION WOULD CERTAINLY IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AND MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE LAPSE RATES FOR THAT DAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S RUN. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BIG WIND DAY AS MODELS FAVOR A 50 TO 60 MPH 10000 FOOT AIRFLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE VENTILATION AREAWIDE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT CATEGORY. MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH RAPIDLY PUSHING OUT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INITIALLY STARTING THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL STILL BE TANGLING WITH CLOUDS THANKS TO THE MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE UP THAT WAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD MAKE FOR A NEAR CRITICAL DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ONCE THE CIRRUS SHOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINT AND SUBSEQUENT RH FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PCT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME UPPER TEENS WHICH WOULD MAKE CONDITIONS A BIT MORE CRITICAL THERE. DID RAISE WIND SPEED VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND FOR MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN...LOOK TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON BLOCKING FLOW AND LAPSE RATE CONSIDERATIONS /AKA UPSLOPE/. MODELS ARE NOW DEPICTING A DOUBLE PERIOD FOR THE PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY STARTING OUT WITH THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OF THE MEAN JET STREAM OR TROUGH PASSAGE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHWEST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WOULD BE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BE TOO SHADOWED WITH MAINLY VIRGA OR HIGH BASED PASSING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DRYING OUT THE FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO BE MODERATELY STRONG SO THIS WOULD FAVOR VENTILATION A LITTLE BETTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING. CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST SHOWS QUITE A FEW FAIR/S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME GOOD TO VERY GOOD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WOULD BE A BIT STRONGER. TEMPERATURES WOULD START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. A SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN...ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...MENTIONED ABOVE IS DEPICTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...SUSPECT THE FLOW WOULD LARGELY BE DRY WITH JUST A FEW WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE POOR WITHIN THE VALLEYS BUT A TAD BETTER ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD GRADUALLY WARM AND ALLOW FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PLAINS. THE UPCOMING PATTERN AND PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LATE DECEMBER IS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE OBSERVED IN JANUARY OF 2011. 50 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 8 44 13 49 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... -1 45 5 47 / 0 0 0 5 CUBA............................ 8 48 13 48 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 0 50 7 50 / 0 0 0 5 EL MORRO........................ 10 48 14 47 / 0 0 0 5 GRANTS.......................... -6 34 -1 34 / 0 0 0 5 QUEMADO......................... 13 50 17 51 / 0 0 0 5 GLENWOOD........................ 20 58 20 59 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 1 42 9 42 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 18 45 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 18 48 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... -3 37 2 35 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 12 39 14 40 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... -3 39 4 42 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 2 44 7 43 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 16 49 20 48 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 14 50 18 51 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 16 47 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 15 48 18 47 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 21 47 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 22 48 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 49 21 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 19 48 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 13 49 18 54 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 18 48 21 50 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 21 51 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 14 45 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 16 45 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 42 17 44 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 13 41 20 43 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 17 47 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 15 54 20 55 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 21 54 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 14 49 20 50 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 10 58 16 60 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 16 53 18 54 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 17 55 22 55 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 23 60 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 21 54 24 58 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 23 59 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 21 58 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 19 61 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 24 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 22 61 25 64 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 19 63 24 67 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 19 59 21 66 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 19 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 21 56 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 34/50  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 110335 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 935 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012 .UPDATE...WL NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS MOST LOCATIONS AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE FROST THAN FOG BUT WL ADD FOG MENTION INTO WI RVR VALLEY. 00Z NAM CONTINUES SLIGHT SWD TREND OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LOWER MI THU AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER SRN WI DURING THIS PD. HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED EARLY WED. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW THE SFC DEWPT. OTRW...EXPC VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WL NEED TO BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCD WITH -SN INTO KMSN AFT 06Z/12...AND INTO KMKE AFT 14Z/12 AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GTLAKES. && .MARINE...00Z NAM CONTINUES TREND OF INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH OF LOWER MI THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT RESULTING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MI INTO FRI. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY REACH GALE WARNING LEVELS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MODIS IMAGES FROM TODAY SHOW LAKE SFC TEMPS STILL AROUND 5-6C FROM THE EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TO MID-LAKE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING BEFORE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE LOW REACH SOUTHERN WI WED AFTERNOON. TRIED TO CUT BACK IN FCST CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY... SINCE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY FEW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL COME A SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH RADIATIVE COOLING. WENT WITH CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE...ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...SINCE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE DECOUPLED AND HAD MIN TEMPS LOWER THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN WED MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AND SFC COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED...WITH THE GFS QUICKEST...MAKING IT INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z... AND THE ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN REACHING THE NW FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z. WENT WITH COMPROMISE. EITHER WAY...THE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH THE PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE LEADING 500MB VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENESIS GETS IN HERE WED NIGHT. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ONLY SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THEY WERE TODAY...RANGING FROM MID 40S IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 50 IN MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA. VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE COLL BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND THE OTHER SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR TEMPS AND COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS TOO QUICKLY...THE FCST MAX TEMPS ARE TOO HIGH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE DYNAMIC AND SNOWY SYSTEM FOR LATE WED NT THROUGH THU NT. A LARGE DIGGING POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM MN TO OK BY 12Z THU. THE POLAR TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NEWD...BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSED OFF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS IL/IN TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODELS PLACING THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON BY 00Z FRI. COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR WED NT WITH 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND PVA TO FOLLOW LATE WED NT INTO THU NT. THERE ALSO WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERALL...OMEGA AND LIFT IS CATEGORIZED AS MODERATE. THIS IS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AND A CONSENSUS OF QPF GIVES AROUND 0.30 INCHES IN THE FAR WRN CWA TO 0.40 INCHES IN THE EAST AND NORTH. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...COBB TECHNIQUE...AND ROEBBERS NEURAL NETWORK ALL GIVE LIGHT SNOW RATIOS EVEN WITH 15 KT SFC WINDS...AS TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS BECOME VERY COLD. THIS YIELDS 5-6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 30 HOUR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND FOR DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT WIND GUSTS ARE TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS SNOW EVENT. A WORST CASE SCENARIO IS IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN PLACING THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OR IN WRN LOWER MI. WINDS WOULD THEN GUST TO NEARLY 30 KTS OR MORE AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. THIS HOWEVER IS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FOR FRI WITH VERY LGT SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW PROJECTED TO TRACK SEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY FOR SAT. THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CHANGE BUT IT CURRENTLY IS TOO WEAK TO FORECAST SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR SAT NT INTO SUN AM. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSUE SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON WITH A RETURN OF NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LGT SNOW MON NT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FOR TUE WITH A RETURN OF COLD TEMPS. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. A LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AT MKE AND MAYBE EVEN ENW. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI BEGINNING WED EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEE THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY STORY ON OUR WEBSITE FOR A BREAK-DOWN IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING. MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY... THEN INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 092358 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 558 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012 .UPDATE...NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 02Z. CHII2 GUSTING TO 37KTS WHICH LIES AT THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE ANEMOMETER IS AROUND 60FT OFF THE LAKE SURFACE...THINK SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS STILL MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMP AROUND 5C 3-5 MILES FROM SHORE. LINGERING STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AS LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION MOVES AWAY. THUS...THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS...BUT LEFT OUT OF FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S NEAR THE LAKE SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER IN LOW LYING AREAS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION BOOSTING 925MB TEMPERATURES TO 4 TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG WITH MO SUNNY SKIES. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE NT AND WED WHILE THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SEWD FROM MANITOBA CANADA TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON AND MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE IT WILL BE AN ANAFRONT...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PROVIDE ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR WED...LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST IN SE WI. BRISK NWLY WINDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL WED NT INTO THU. A WEAK NARROW BAND OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AFTER FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LGT SNOW...MAINLY WED NT WITH BEST CHANCES IN ERN WI. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU. LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NEWD ON FRI WITH DECREASING NW WINDS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL ALBERTA CLIPPER FOR SAT...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY WEAK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LGT SNOW CURRENTLY ONLY FORECAST OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE JET STREAM WILL RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GRAZING THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR TO BORDERLINE MVFR FOG AT MADISON AND KENOSHA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN DRY AIRMASS. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING OF WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING FREQUENT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE BORDERLINE AT BEST...SO LEFT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 00Z TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 081011 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 511 AM EST Sun Jan 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS...At the surface, a ridge of high pressure remained in place from the Florida Peninsula extending back through the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a cold front had stalled to the north of this area of high pressure, from northern Louisiana into the Carolinas. Other than a few isolated showers, there was no notable precipitation across the southeast corner of the country including our local forecast area. However, the calm winds and (relatively) clear skies associated with the high pressure were contributing to yet another night of fog. The fog was dense in spots, but the expansion of the dense fog was less uniform than in past nights, complicated by a smattering of mid-level clouds slowly traversing north Florida and southern Georgia. The stalled front is likely to remain locked in place over the next several days, and thus persistence will play a large role in the forecast. The focus over the first four days of the forecast is related to a strong upper level closed low that will be ejecting out of the southern Plains, and affecting our forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. The feature that will eventually develop into this low is in the form of a digging trough currently over the desert Southwest. && .NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...Compared to the past several nights, the development and expansion of dense fog has been more complex early this morning. This is largely because of a few isolated showers in our southwestern areas, and some altostratus that has been slowly moving east across our area. The mid-level clouds have limited fog development across most of southwest Georgia, but it is finally beginning to set in across the rest of the area. We have expanded the Dense Fog Advisory several times, and this will be done once more with the forecast updates recently sent out. The gap in the advisory area from Panama City NNE to Marianna and around the Dothan and Bainbridge areas will be filled in. KECP and KBIJ have already dipped down occasionally to near 1/4SM. Despite a few showers approaching Panama City right now that may cause the fog to temporarily lift, the thinking is that it should set in once more closer to daybreak. This will give us a more uniform advisory area. With forecast soundings for the NAM and local 4km WRF-ARW indicating that the radiation inversion won't break until around 15z, the expiration time of the advisory has been extended an additional hour. After the fog burns off, the focus turns to the possibility of some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Although the primary surface front will remain north of the area, there should be some increase in low-level moisture advection with the southern edge of a ribbon of stronger 0-2km moisture transport vectors clipping through the northwest third of our forecast area. There is about a 0.3" increase in PWATs through the course of the day over this area. The 4km-WRF runs have been consistent across various flavors of the model in generating some scattered showers in the afternoon. In fact, there appears to be enough instability for some thunderstorms as well. The WRF models, RUC, and NAM forecast soundings all show about 300-500 j/kg of SBCAPE extending up to about the -30C level, so there could be vigorous enough updrafts for some lightning. It looks like another warm day, and with negligible low-level advection the high temperature forecast was a blend of the MAV, MET, and persistence. Highs in the mid-70s should be about 10-15 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM [Monday through Tuesday]...Monday is expected to be a quieter day comparatively to Tuesday. Slight shortwave ridging ahead of the approaching trough, and the stalled front remaining north of our area, are expected to keep precipitation chances low. Other than immediately along our northern row of counties, the forecast was kept dry with PoPs generally 5-10%. Partly cloudy skies and a similar low-level temperature profile to what we are experiencing this weekend should support another day with highs in the mid-70s. For Tuesday, the closed upper level low will kick out from the southern Plains and begin migrating east across the Gulf Coast states. During the day, there should be a slow ramp-up in cloud cover and precipitation chances from west to east. By 00z Wednesday the majority of the models have the 500mb low centered near Shreveport, LA, and thus the bulk of the deeper layer QG convergence will still be focused to the west of our area. As such, PoPs were kept on the low end of the guidance envelope. However, we are still expecting some scattered showers to develop over most of the area by Tuesday afternoon as low-level WAA increases. Models are very reluctant to show much instability prior to 00z Wednesday, and this makes sense as the colder core of the mid-upper level low will remain west of our area. Therefore, we were slow to introduce thunder during the day time. It looks like most of the thunderstorm threat would be after dark, and that is discussed in more detail below. && .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through next Sunday]...Guidance has come into good agreement for the early portion of the extended forecast period. Upper low/sfc low will begin the period situated near the Arklatex, with a cold front reaching southeast to the Mississippi coast and into the Gulf. As the system moves eastward through the overnight hours, good divergent pattern aloft will aid in maintaining broad area of large scale lift and resulting precipitation. Guidance also shows a 60-70kt mid-level jet moving into the panhandle and reaching the Big Bend by sunrise on Wednesday. This jet, along with significant low-level directional and speed shear, will create a very favorable kinematic environment for rotating storms. The weak parameter for severe weather continues to be the amount of instability available. 00Z GFS and Canadian are a bit more aggressive than the 00Z Euro with respect to low-level instability, each showing up to around 500j/kg of BL CAPE right along the front. With the favorable shear parameters, this would likely be sufficient to maintain a few severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the front sweeps across the forecast area. Will continue to monitor this potential severe weather event closely over the coming days. Much drier air will push in behind the front during the day on Wednesday. However, without much in the way of cold air in waiting, temperatures will only modestly cool off. Significant uncertaintly exists as Friday and the weekend approaches. Guidance has reversed itself over the past few days, with the GFS now indicating a wet Gulf low by the end of the week, while the Euro maintains a dry frontal passage. The guidance was roughly reversed with the scenario 48 hours ago. Since the GFS has maintained this solution for a couple of runs, and has some support from the 00z Canadian, will begin to nudge PoP up for Thursday night through Friday as low pressure develops over the western Gulf and lifts east-northeastward. A colder airmass is expected to follow this system into the area for next weekend. && .MARINE...The main marine concern over the first 48-60 hours of the forecast is related to fog. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was hoisted through 16z for our coastal zones within 20 NM of the shoreline. MODIS 1km 11-3.9u satellite image from 0703z showed some hints of fog over the waters, especially over protected bays and waterways. Another prominent area of fog was located between Alligator Point and the mouth of the Aucilla River along the northern rim of Apalachee Bay. It is uncertain if or when this fog will dissipate, and that is something the subsequent shift will have to examine in greater detail. As moist southeasterly flow continues over the next several days and dewpoints steadily climb, sea fog will likely be a continued concern over various parts of the waters. The predictability of this is low, but the extended potential for fog will be highlighted in the HWO and the synopsis section of the CWF. Advisory-level winds still look like a good bet around the cold front passage later Tuesday and very early Wednesday. The other concern would be related to surf heights on the Panhandle beaches Tuesday-Wednesday. The latest 06z run of the SWAN yields 3-4 foot surf along Walton County Tuesday, and around 2 feet elsewhere. This increases to 4-5 feet on most Panhandle beaches for Wednesday. This doesn't quite hit Surf Advisory criteria, but nonetheless stronger and more frequent rips should become likely by Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION [through 06z Monday]...Dense fog and conditions near airport minimums will continue to plague area terminals through the morning hours. An area of mid-level clouds is currently moving across southwest Georgia and the western Big Bend. This cloud deck will limit poor conditions at KABY and possibly result in some improvement at KTLH by 08-09Z. The lingering clouds at KECP should also keep conditions generally above airport minimums. VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals by late morning as the fog burns off. However, fog will once again be an issue Sunday night. && .FIRE WEATHER...A moist low-level airmass will remain in place across the region into the middle of next week, with RH values remaining well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 48 76 50 73 / 20 10 10 10 30 Panama City 70 57 73 58 69 / 20 10 10 20 50 Dothan 74 53 74 54 71 / 40 30 10 20 50 Albany 73 52 75 51 72 / 30 30 10 10 40 Valdosta 75 48 76 49 74 / 10 10 10 10 30 Cross City 76 47 76 48 74 / 0 10 10 10 20 Apalachicola 69 55 71 58 68 / 10 10 10 10 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Brooks- Decatur-Early-Grady-Lowndes-Miller-Seminole-Thomas. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. && $$ Synopsis & Near Term...Lamers Short Term...Lamers Long Term...Camp Marine...Lamers/Camp Aviation & Fire Wx...Camp  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 010959 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 359 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH PROGS AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA...TO MOVE EWD AND OVER THE ERN CONUS BY MONDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ENTERING THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH BASED ON MSAS DATA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA TODAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT (NAM/GFS QPF). THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING THE NAM WIND/NAM MSLP FALLS/LOCAL WRF-ARW WIND OUTPUT/GFS WIND OUTPUT...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE YET BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THICKNESS VALUES REVEAL THAT THE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. WL DEFER TO THE DETERMINISTIC NAM (WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS) WITH REGARD TO TEMPS TNGT/ MONDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TONIGHT...AND THE LOWER 60S MONDAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT/MONDAY. && .MARINE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AND SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING WARM SST VALUES BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE NW...WIND WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA OVER THE BAYS BY 00Z MONDAY...NEARSHORE BY 03Z MONDAY...YET CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 23Z MONDAY WHEN CONSIDERING SEA HEIGHTS FROM WAVEWATCH OUTPUT. && .FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND...WILL ISSUE AN RFD FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS DRG THE 18Z-00Z MONDAY PERIOD. NOT SUFFICIENTLY CONFIDENT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING WILL ALLOW MN TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. MID 30S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER S ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE COAST. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO S TX THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEADING TO GRADUAL WARMING INTO WED. ALSO WITH THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WED NITE/TUE MORN. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED/WED NIGHT AHD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS TRICKY AS MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...BUT THEY DO ALL SHOW A BAGGY TROUGH MOVG ACROSS S TX SOMETIME THU. MODELS ARE SHOWING NO TO VERY LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT 10 POPS BEGINNING ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED DUE TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE A COLD FRONT ON THU...MX TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART WITH MN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY ABOVE AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 41 62 35 67 / 30 0 0 0 10 VICTORIA 64 35 61 31 64 / 20 0 0 0 0 LAREDO 66 39 63 39 69 / 20 0 0 0 10 ALICE 66 39 63 35 66 / 30 0 0 0 10 ROCKPORT 65 43 60 38 63 / 20 0 0 0 0 COTULLA 64 34 62 31 66 / 10 0 0 0 10 KINGSVILLE 67 40 63 32 67 / 30 0 0 0 10 NAVY CORPUS 65 46 59 43 66 / 30 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS... BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR... COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM TE/81...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 300958 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 358 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2011 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW AND MAINLY GROUND FOG AND SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WITH THE SUNRISE. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS S TX THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SFC HIGH AND A ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO S TX THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP AND THE FRONTAL BDRY TO STALL AND WASH OUT. GIVEN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE DIRECTION VARYING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAA WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED SUN...AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. DUE TO THE MORE SLY COMPONENT OVER THE WATERS...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO S TX. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4 OF A MILE AT TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE MN TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY. MN TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE FOG COULD PROVIDE EVAPORITIVE COOLING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. A MORE SELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP BY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DVLPS ACROSS N TX AHD OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT. MX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO. && .MARINE... SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEA FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A MOD SLY FLOW HAS DVLPD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK TO MOD BY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF/ CANADIAN CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST/NERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE CWA/MSA. IN PARTICULAR...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NEAR SFC MSTR/LGT WIND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ANTICIPATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT (EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDER OWING IN PART TO LIMITED CAPE.) STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW/SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING THE SST VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE OUTPUT (CAVEAT...10 DAY SST LATENCY). OFFSHORE WIND WILL THEN DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ENTERS SOUTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WIND WL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION MONDAY AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIRMASS/PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS/LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING CONDITIONS OF MANY LOCATIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA/MSA WED...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. YET...EXPECT MSTR TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA (RTN FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO COMMENCE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN.) THUS...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 54 76 58 68 / 0 10 10 20 30 VICTORIA 73 49 73 54 66 / 0 10 10 20 20 LAREDO 77 51 79 54 67 / 0 0 10 10 20 ALICE 77 49 77 56 68 / 0 10 10 10 30 ROCKPORT 69 55 70 58 66 / 0 10 10 20 20 COTULLA 76 46 76 50 65 / 0 0 10 20 10 KINGSVILLE 78 52 79 57 69 / 0 10 10 10 30 NAVY CORPUS 72 56 72 60 66 / 0 10 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 182015 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 315 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TAKING AT LOOK AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT 19Z...THE NEARING SFC LOW LOOKED TO BE LOCATED OVER FAR NW MN. PRESSURE CHANGES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF -5MB ACROSS NORTHERN WI THROUGH WESTERN LS AND UPPER MI THANKS TO THE EXITING AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPING ON THE THEME OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE CORE OF THE 40 TO 50KT 950-850MB LLJ WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z...BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING TO SE ONTARIO. STILL...THE WIND WILL REMAIN OVER 30KTS AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 06Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR STRONGER GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS TAKE HOLD. WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE STRONG S TO SW FLOW...850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REBOUND TO ABOVE 0C READINGS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO A MAX OF 6C INTERIOR WEST TO 1C FAR EAST. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEARING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. LIMITED COLD AIR AND SFC TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK WEST HALF WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT SNOW. A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT AS LIKELY. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...AROUND 700MB...IS WAY ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER...WHICH IS CONFINED AT OR BELOW 850MB. CONTINUED A NON DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 30S MOST PLACES. THE WARMEST AIR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AS COLD AIR DIVES IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO -10 TO -3C BY 15Z MONDAY /WARMEST S CENTRAL...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE SMALLER SCALE WRF RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON A STREAM OF MOISTURE HAILING FROM LAKE NIPIGON. GIVEN THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS IMAGE WHERE LAKE NIPIGON IS NOT CONCEALED BY CLOUDS...THE DEC 16TH IMAGE DID SHOW A FEW STREAMS OF LES SLIDING OFF THE LAKE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE COVER. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF HIGHER CLOUDS CENTRAL AND PARTICULARLY EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WSW SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY FLURRIES MENTIONED FOR AREAS NEAR LS FAVORED BY THE NNW WINDS. OTHER THAN SMALL TWEAKS...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. .LONG TERM DISCUSSION /MON NGT THROUGH SUN/... MON NGT...ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE E WL END IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS/SHARPLY ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER RISING HGTS ALF. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER WSW FLOW WL DVLP LATE AS THE W-E ORIENTED RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE RDG MOST OF THE NGT/MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL WARRANT A MIN TEMPS FCST AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE. THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL...WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM THRU THE NGT CLOSER TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RDG AXIS. TUE...W-E ORIENTED SFC RDG AXIS WL REMAIN JUST S OF UPR MI AND UNDER UPR CONFLUENCE BTWN NRN BRANCH FLOW THRU ONTARIO AND THE SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE LOWER LKS. AS ANOTHER NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/SFC LO/AREA OF SHARP PRES FALLS TRACK ACRS NW ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL BRING INCRSG WSW H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS OVER THE N HALF OF THE CWA. OVER THE SRN TIER CLOSER TO THE HI PRES RDG AXIS... WINDS WL REMAIN LIGHTER. TUE NGT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE NRN BRANCH IN CAN AND SRN BRANCH FLOW/SFC LO IMPACTING THE LOWER LKS. ALTHOUGH COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WL APRCH NRN LK SUP LATE AND SFC LO PRES WL LIFT INTO LWR MI...THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON TUE AFTN OVER AT LEAST THE NRN TIER WL DIMINISH AS MODELS SHOW PRES RISES OVER ONTARIO IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV AND PRES FALLS TO THE SE CLOSE TO THE SFC LO WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI. SOME MODELS BRUSH THE SE CWA WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH LO...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER DYNAMICS TO THE SE SUG GOING DRY FCST IS IN ORDER. WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND RESILIENT DRY AIRMASS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL SHARPLY TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. WED...AS ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH MOVES ACRS SCNTRL CAN TOWARD NW MN LATE IN THE DAY...ASSOCIATED COLD FNT WL ARPCH NW LK SUP. SPREAD CLDS/POPS INTO THIS AREA PER 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...BUT DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...LACK OF ANY MSTR INFLOW THAT WOULD SUPPORT MOST PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF BNDRY...AND SLOWER SPEED EXHIBITED BY 12Z NAM/CNDN AND 09Z/15Z SREF SUG ONLY SCHC POPS ARE APPROPRIATE ATTM. IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WL PERSIST WITH CONTINUED POSITIVE NAO CONTRIBUTING TO ZONAL NRN BRANCH FLOW ACRS CAN. THIS FLOW PATTERN WL ALLOW MAINLY MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASSES TO DOMINATE THE UPR GRT LKS...WITH TEMPS TENDING ABV NORMAL AND PCPN BLO NORMAL AS THE MSTR LADEN SRN BRANCH LO PRES SYSTEMS REMAIN TO THE S IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF EL NINO THAN THE ONGOING LA NINA. ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE TO BRING SOME PCPN TO UPR MI WL BE WED NGT/THU. ALTHOUGH SOME LES MAY FOLLOW ON THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AS ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -15C BRIEFLY SURGES INTO THE UPR LKS...A WARMER PACIFIC AIRMASS WL RETURN ON FRI/SAT UNDER RDGING IN THE NRN BRANCH. LOOKING TOWARD XMAS DAY...ANOTHER AMPLIFYING NRN BRANCH TROF/COLD FROPA MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHSN NEXT SUN...ESPECIALLY IF THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE CAN LIFT SOME SRN BRANCH MSTR FARTHER N AS INDICATED BY 00Z ECMWF. COORDINATED WITH GRB. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/... INCREASING SW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE/INVERSION TAKES HOLD AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ALOFT. THESE STRONG WINDS AROUND 50KTS AROUND 2KFT ABOVE THE SFC WILL GREATLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 25KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z MONDAY /WEST TO EAST/. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP LLWS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH WINDS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...AS WELL AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR. EXPECT MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CEIGS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /LOWEST AT CMX AND IWD GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW UPSLOPE WINDS OFF LS/...WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z MONDAY PRIMARILY WEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LS THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THIS NEARING LOW...AND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE...STRONG S TO SW GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE NW MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTER LS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA MONDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS IT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND OFF SHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY. SW GALES TO 40KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND N CENTRAL LS. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LS TUESDAY NIGHT..BEFORE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ250-251. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KMOB 140542 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1140 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011 .AVIATION UPDATE (14/06Z ISSUANCE)...LOW CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. FOES IMAGER 11-3.9 AND MODIS POLAR ORBITER CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK WITH LOW VISIBILITY IN A LAYER WHOSE EDGE OVERLAYS A LINE FROM NEAR FOLEY TO BAY MINETTE AND ON UP TO CAMDEN. POINTS WEST OF SAID LINE ARE PRETTY WELL SOCKED IN AND PRETTY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT REDUCED PREVAILING GROUP TO A QUARTER MILE AND VV001 FOR BFM AND MOB. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2011/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO QUEBEC. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES MOVES LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ALSO MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS GULF MOISTURE ACROSS COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG AREA WIDE TONIGHT THEN PATCHY DENSE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY TURN OUT TO BE A DENSE FOG EVENT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH DECELERATES WHILE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO NEAR A LCH/JAN/HSV LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY NEAR 06Z SATURDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED MEANWHILE AND HAVE STAYED WITH SHOWERS AS THE PRECIP TYPE EXCEPT FOR SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN HAVE SMALL POPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY. POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM GOOD CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH SIMILAR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER FIFTIES INLAND TO UPPER FIFTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29 LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BUT DEEP LAYER DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL JUST HAVE SMALL POPS FOR PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHILE A PREVIOUSLY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND SUPPORTS JUST SMALL POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE RETURNED TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY MODERATES TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY TUESDAY. /29 AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)..STUBBORN LIFR CIGS/LIFR TO IFR VISBYS ARE ERODING AT A PRETTY PREDICTABLE RATE...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK ERODING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6-7KNOTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON USING THIS. TONIGHT...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER FOG/STRATUS EVENT...AND WITH A SWITCH IN THE SFC WINDS TO SE WEDNESDAY...A PROLONGED EVENT IS POSSIBLE. WITH WATER TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OFF THE MISS COAST TO UPPER 60S OFF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...AND LOWER 70S DEGREE AIR MOVING OVER THIS WATER...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE AL/MS STATE LINE TONIGHT...AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PERSISTENT IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VISBYS ARE LIKELY. /16 MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MEANDER EAST TO THE NJ TO NC ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN GET SHOVED SOUTH AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGELINE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING. /16 FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 53 72 58 73 / 05 05 10 10 PENSACOLA 52 70 57 72 / 05 05 10 10 DESTIN 54 68 58 70 / 05 05 10 10 EVERGREEN 44 71 52 74 / 05 05 10 10 WAYNESBORO 46 71 55 75 / 05 05 10 20 CAMDEN 45 70 53 74 / 05 05 10 20 CRESTVIEW 45 73 50 75 / 05 05 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KLIX 130452 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1052 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011 .UPDATE... 11 MINUS 3.9 MICRON MODIS-GOES HYBRID SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH GROUND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...KHDC AWOS...AND TRAFFIC CAMERAS INDICATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE OCCURRING FROM NEAR HAMMOND TO JUST EAST OF BATON ROUGE TO NEAR DONALDSONVILLE AND CONVENT. THIS FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH METRO BATON ROUGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 TO CONVENT THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY. TO THE EAST...A STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ABOVE 1000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND POSSIBLY AREAS TO THE WEST NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AS THE CLOUDS TRY TO SPREAD WEST. 22/TD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 45 66 50 71 / 10 10 10 10 BTR 47 69 53 74 / 10 10 10 10 ASD 48 67 52 73 / 10 10 10 10 MSY 53 68 56 74 / 10 10 10 10 GPT 49 67 52 70 / 10 10 10 10 PQL 47 67 50 70 / 10 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA. GM...NONE. MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...AND WILKINSON. GM...NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 101812 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1212 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011 .UPDATE...TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS PUSHING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONE AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING SOUTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER LOW CLOUD AREA WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTING EAST. NORTHERN CLOUD LAYER SOMEWHAT THIN...BUT STILL BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. SOME MIXING OF THESE CLOUD LAYERS POSSIBLE AS THEY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING...THOUGH MIXING IS QUITE SHALLOW. WILL ADJUST SKY FORECAST TO TIME THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT CLIMB OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH CLOUD DECK FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING OUT OF THIS DECK AT TIMES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THINK BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO CLIP TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET AS WELL. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IF CURRENT MVFR DECK DOES NOT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNSET...THIS AREA COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE SCENARIOS HAPPENING YET...SO LEFT TAFS VFR FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET CORE STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STILL...WINDS AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY REACH UP TO 40 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE BORDERLINE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS OCCURRING AT THIS LEVEL. CLEAR SKIES RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL COMBINE WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE TO HELP BRING FREQUENT SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUSTS WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET...MAINLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WAVES REMAIN HIGH TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM TONIGHT. FOCUS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY ACROSS WRN GTLAKES. 85H TEMPS WARM OVER 10C TODAY...STARTING OUT THIS MRNG AROUND -14. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARCHED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.1 AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONGEST PUSH OF WAA OVER NRN WI. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABV 10K FT. IR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NRN MN...MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. AREA OF LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SFC AROUND 600MB PUSHES THRU SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HENCE EXPC AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MRNG...WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTN. CLOUDS WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN CHECK DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN TONIGHT. SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRYING TO INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING VCNTY OF UPSTREAM SNOWFIELD THIS EVENING AND ADVECTING INTO SRN WI LATE TNGT. SOME MELTING WL TAKE PLACE OVER NE SNOWFIELD...BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECTING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. WL CONTINUE WITH M/CLR WORDING FOR TNGT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS LIKELY TO DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT THEN SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COAST WILL BRING WELCOMED WARMER TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. 925MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +4C...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT BE MIXING THAT HIGH TO REACH THAT HIGHER TEMP POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MORNING STRATUS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO LEAVING IT OUT OF FCST AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...SO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25MPH AT TIMES SUN AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE WEST EARLY MON MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT INVERSION SUN NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAIN SUN NIGHT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI LATE SUN NIGHT...AND THE PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON MON. ECMWF SPREADS THE QPF ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS AND NAM KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST DRY. ALL MODELS AGREE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...FCST SNDGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MOIST LAYER SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON MON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MOIST LAYER BARELY REACHES INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...MEANING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA RATHER THAN SNOW. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL WI...SO SAUK/MARQUETTE/GREEN LAKE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW RATHER THAN JUST DRIZZLE. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUESTIONABLE MON NIGHT...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS LOOK DRIER SO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...THUS THE UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE. LONG TERM... TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. LIGHT PRECIP COULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S...SO VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY TUE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL PUSH AN 850MB WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT. THEN SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND CROSS IOWA/WI OR ILLINOIS WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS TOOK LOW ACROSS CHICAGO...A MUCH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND AN OUTLIER FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. THEREFORE...TRENDED FCST TOWARD THE WARMER...NORTHERLY...MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TUE NIGHT...THEN TURN TO ALL RAIN ON WED AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WED EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MAIN LOW PRESSURE BY LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ANY LINGERING RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO AFFECT SRN WI FOR A TIME TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPCD INTO THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL AREA OF LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY PATCHY STRATUS OVER SRN NE OVER DEEPER SNOWCOVER. AT THIS POINT...WL LEAVE ST OUT OF TAFS AS EXPC LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO ERODE INITIAL PUSH OF HIGHER SFC RH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY AFTN SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP REMAINS A MILD 6-7C. THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE. SHIP REPORTS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF 20-25KTS SINCE FRI EVE. DELTA-T CURRENTLY AROUND 20C DROPS TO 14C BY 00Z...AND CONTINUES TO DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN LAKE MI EXPCD LATER TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO S CENTRAL CAN. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW FETCH LENGTH WL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOWER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 100929 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM TONIGHT. FOCUS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY ACROSS WRN GTLAKES. 85H TEMPS WARM OVER 10C TODAY...STARTING OUT THIS MRNG AROUND -14. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARCHED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.1 AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONGEST PUSH OF WAA OVER NRN WI. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABV 10K FT. IR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NRN MN...MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. AREA OF LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SFC AROUND 600MB PUSHES THRU SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HENCE EXPC AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MRNG...WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTN. CLOUDS WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN CHECK DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN TONIGHT. SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRYING TO INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING VCNTY OF UPSTREAM SNOWFIELD THIS EVENING AND ADVECTING INTO SRN WI LATE TNGT. SOME MELTING WL TAKE PLACE OVER NE SNOWFIELD...BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECTING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. WL CONTINUE WITH M/CLR WORDING FOR TNGT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS LIKELY TO DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT THEN SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COAST WILL BRING WELCOMED WARMER TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. 925MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +4C...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT BE MIXING THAT HIGH TO REACH THAT HIGHER TEMP POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MORNING STRATUS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO LEAVING IT OUT OF FCST AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...SO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25MPH AT TIMES SUN AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE WEST EARLY MON MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT INVERSION SUN NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAIN SUN NIGHT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI LATE SUN NIGHT...AND THE PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON MON. ECMWF SPREADS THE QPF ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS AND NAM KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST DRY. ALL MODELS AGREE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...FCST SNDGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MOIST LAYER SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON MON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MOIST LAYER BARELY REACHES INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...MEANING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA RATHER THAN SNOW. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL WI...SO SAUK/MARQUETTE/GREEN LAKE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW RATHER THAN JUST DRIZZLE. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUESTIONABLE MON NIGHT...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS LOOK DRIER SO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...THUS THE UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE. .LONG TERM... TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. LIGHT PRECIP COULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S...SO VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY TUE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL PUSH AN 850MB WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT. THEN SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND CROSS IOWA/WI OR ILLINOIS WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS TOOK LOW ACROSS CHICAGO...A MUCH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND AN OUTLIER FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. THEREFORE...TRENDED FCST TOWARD THE WARMER...NORTHERLY...MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TUE NIGHT...THEN TURN TO ALL RAIN ON WED AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WED EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MAIN LOW PRESSURE BY LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ANY LINGERING RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO AFFECT SRN WI FOR A TIME TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPCD INTO THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL AREA OF LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY PATCHY STRATUS OVER SRN NE OVER DEEPER SNOWCOVER. AT THIS POINT...WL LEAVE ST OUT OF TAFS AS EXPC LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO ERODE INITIAL PUSH OF HIGHER SFC RH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY AFTN SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP REMAINS A MILD 6-7C. THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE. SHIP REPORTS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF 20-25KTS SINCE FRI EVE. DELTA-T CURRENTLY AROUND 20C DROPS TO 14C BY 00Z...AND CONTINUES TO DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN LAKE MI EXPCD LATER TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO S CENTRAL CAN. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW FETCH LENGTH WL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOWER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 081012 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 412 AM CST THU DEC 8 2011 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGD (GFS/NAM) TO MOVE SEWD ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CWA BY FRIDAY. THE GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROG A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP DRG THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED PCPN LATE TNGT/FRIDAY. THESE MODELS ALSO PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 295/300K OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVEOPING COASTAL TROUGH. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL (GFS/NAM POSITIVE LI VALUES) NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE OWING TO THE COASTAL TROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. (MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WL LIKELY DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. FURTHER...BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE...SST VALUES ALONG/NEAR THE COAST ARE IN THE 60S AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN SFC DEW POINTS OVER THE SAME REGION. THUS ADVECTION FOG NOT ANTICIPATED.) FRIDAY AFTN...EXPECT LIGHT RAINFALL TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OWING TO BOTH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA...AND ALSO CONSIDERING FOREGOING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. FURTHER...AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND...INCREASING SFC WIND ANTICIPATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY APPROACH SCEC CRITERION. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL UTILIZE NAM MOS WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHILE ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH TEXAS COAST...THEY DO DIFFER IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH. MAINLY...DEPTH AND POSITION. HAVE NOTICED SOME WAVERING BACK AND FORTH RUN TO RUN ON HOUR STRONG THE TROUGH WILL BE. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP...BUT NOT REALLY SEEING THIS IN LATEST RUNS. INSTEAD...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED THE TROUGH A BIT FARTHER WEST. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HARD TO REALLY PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. AN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN COOL...WITH SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 50S FOR SUNDAY. MAY SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE EXITS. BY MID-WEEK THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS NO INDICATION OF THIS FRONT AT ALL. BECAUSE THE FEATURE IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE GFS...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO THAT KEEP THE FRONT BEFORE PUTTING IT INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME...KEEPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 64 50 66 48 57 / 10 20 30 40 40 VICTORIA 60 42 63 42 56 / 10 10 30 30 30 LAREDO 68 50 68 49 53 / 0 10 20 30 30 ALICE 67 48 67 47 55 / 0 10 20 40 40 ROCKPORT 60 51 66 48 57 / 10 20 30 40 50 COTULLA 67 43 62 45 54 / 0 10 20 30 30 KINGSVILLE 67 49 68 48 57 / 0 10 20 40 40 NAVY CORPUS 61 52 66 51 59 / 10 20 30 40 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM PZ/83...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 050754 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 254 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WEDGE IN PLACE WITH A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE TO JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST TO VERY NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. ISENTROPIC ASSENT ABOVE THE TROUGH AND INLAND WEDGE IS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE THE HIGHEST. SCATTERED SPRINKLES AN PERHAPS A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT RADAR INDICATES ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MORE MOIST MARINE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG MAINLY THE UPPER GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AVERAGE ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT BEST FOR AREAS THAT ARE LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE A BRIEF SHOWER. SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS GRADUALLY THINNING WITH TIME. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN...POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO AREAS OF FOG. IT STILL APPEARS THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL REMAIN CONFINED ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON COUNTY TO LONG COUNTY...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. GOES-EAST FOG PRODUCTS ALREADY SUGGEST STRATUS IS FORMING OVER CANDLER COUNTY AS OF 05/0731Z AND SLOWLY EXPANDING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THAT AREA WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT TODAY AS THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THAN WHAT IS BEING DEPICTED IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE MEMBERS...BUT WE DO ANTICIPATE IT DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE ISENTROPIC PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND WITH THE AREA STILL LOCATED ALONG THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGES OF A MODEST SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE...THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOK TOO SMALL TO MENTION TODAY EXCEPT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. MORNING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AGAIN TODAY WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. BEACH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TRAVERSING THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 PER 1 KM MODIS SST DATA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT...POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY ISOLATE SHOWER LIKELY REMAINING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOO SMALL TO A MENTION IN OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD CERTAINLY MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL LOCATIONS. INCREASING DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING 925-700MB FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TONIGHT WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY EXHIBIT BUILD DOWN CHARACTERISTICS AND YIELDING AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN. MOST OF THE TABULAR GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DENSE FOG IN PLACES... BUT NOT READY TO BIT OFF ON THAT JUST YET. WILL INTRODUCE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITHHOLD ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 AT THE BEACHES. ON TUESDAY...THE FIRST PUSH EASTWARD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT SLOWS DOWN A LITTLE WAITING FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ASSUMING THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DONT BECOME TOO STUBBORN AND HANG AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT I CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORECAST PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BOTH SPED UP THE FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS SLOWER. SINCE BOTH MODELS ARE FASTER...I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION...BUT I AM STILL CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN ECMWF...MEANING I HOLD ON TO ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD THE ECMWF TURN OUT TO BE MORE CORRECT...THE MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING...I AM RUNNING JUST CHANCE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FEELING FOR THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED WAVE DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT DEEPENS...THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN NOTICEABLY ON THURSDAY. I HAVE LEFT OUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR A WHILE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR UP FROM WEST TO EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE DEVELOPING SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CLOSE ENOUGH TO THROW A FEW SHOWERS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...SO I HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST. PARAMETERS FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LOOK TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WEST OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE DOES NOT HIT CONDITIONS ANY LOWER THAN MVFR AT EITHER SITE WHICH MATCHES GOING TRENDS WELL. WILL INTRODUCE MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...BUT STILL SHOW A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR AT KCHS AND A PREVAILING GROUP FOR MVFR AT KSAV. THERE IS STILL A MODEST CHANCE...30-40 PERCENT...THAT LOWER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. KSAV WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SEE FOG/STRATUS OOZE IN FROM THE WEST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FOR BOTH THERMALS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BREAKING OUT BY LATE MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES. SEAS REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES OF 6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. PATCHES OF FOG COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATER TONIGHT. STUBBORN 6 FOOT SEAS IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SHOULD FINALLY COME DOWN WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THEN WILL COME BACK UP FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY GET SOME SEA FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT RIGHT NOW IF KEEP THEM BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ONCE WE GET TO SATURDAY...WE MAY START HAVING TO WATCH FOR A PINCHED GRADIENT/WEDGE SCENARIO...BUT IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN DETAILS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ374. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 012106 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 306 PM CST THU DEC 1 2011 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...AS EXPECTED THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 09Z AS THE RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HOLD INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE SHOULD LIMIT HEATING ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS STOPPING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF WHAT WE SAW TODAY. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC APPEAR TO CONVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN. THE SOLNS PROG THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SATURDAY-MONDAY...THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING NRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THE COMPOSITE THEN MOVES EAST...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER HOWEVER. THE FOREGOING NRN SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ENTERING THE CWA/MSA MONDAY/TUESDAY (ALTHOUGH FROPA EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING) THUS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FROM BOTH AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSPECTIVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLD THUNDER ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WHILE COLDER AIR ENTERS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES (THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST) AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS LIKELY TO PERSIST BASED ON GFS ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K...YET GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. RECALL HWR THAT THE GFS IS FASTER. THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGEST PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY. HWR WILL FCST THE PCPN TO END OVER THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS PROGS 06-12Z TUESDAY 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES CLOSE TO A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. WL FCST MIN TEMPS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S HWR WET BULB TEMPS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS. THE CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AND THUS WILL NOT FCST SUCH. IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC AIR...AND CONSIDERING WARM SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS (SPORT MODIS ENHANCED COMPOSITE SST 1-KM)...GALE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY. HWR FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY FCST GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. DRY AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OWING TO STG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT TEMPS TO MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AFTN- THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH GFS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE WED/THURSDAY (BASED ON THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN AFTER THE FOREGOING UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES EAST.) WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN FOR THE ERN CWA/MSA THURSDAY BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 62 78 68 82 63 / 20 20 10 20 30 VICTORIA 60 75 63 80 58 / 20 30 10 30 40 LAREDO 62 79 65 84 58 / 10 20 10 20 30 ALICE 60 79 65 82 60 / 20 20 10 20 30 ROCKPORT 64 74 67 79 64 / 20 20 10 20 40 COTULLA 59 77 63 82 55 / 10 30 20 20 40 KINGSVILLE 62 79 66 82 63 / 20 20 10 20 30 NAVY CORPUS 64 76 68 80 65 / 20 20 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ MLG/77...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 302128 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE...HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. ONLY CONCERN IS TOWARD MORNING WHEN WINDS ALOFT BACK OFF A BIT. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS COULD LOCALLY DROP A FEW DEGREES QUICKLY IN POCKETS OF CLEARING. OVERALL THOUGH...LOOKS AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MILDEST TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK INTO THE LOW 40S. STILL EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS SOUNDINGS PRETTY SATURATED FOR A TIME...WITH SOME OK OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A LOT OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO WEST BEND. STILL...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WI BY 06Z/FRI. HIGHER COLUMN RH WITH PWAT VALUES JUST OVER ONE HALF INCH. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO BE USED BY LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION TO RESULT IN AREAS OF MOSTLY -SN OVER SRN WI FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY EVE. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE SFC TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 40S...SO AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE THU NGT...WL NEED TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME -RA MIXED IN THE WITH THE SNOW. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z/FRI. HOWEVER...LINGERING COLUMN MOISTURE AND ONSHORE COMPONENT CONTINUES FROM 06Z-12Z AS THE DELTA-T INCREASES TO AROUND 13 DEGREES. DESPITE ONSHORE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING FROM 1 TO 3K FEET...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO POSSIBLY TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKESHORE COUNTIES. DRIER AIR INTRUSION REDUCES THREAT TO FLURRIES/SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH TOWARD PORT WASH AND SHEBOYGAN. ONSHORE COMPONENT WEAKENS BY 12Z AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. DUE TO WEAKER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR NOW. EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND CLOUDS IN THE FAR EAST AND CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE WEST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TAPPING INTO WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THESE INCREASING WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF PHASING OF A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PWAT VALUES OF THREE QUARTERS INCH SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI ON SAT. THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MRNG...REDUCING THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LATEST GFS REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH NAM AND ECMWF IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMING LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MOSTLY -RA ON SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIXTURE IN NORTHWEST CWA IN THE MORNING. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE SHOW UP RIGHT AWAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECWMF AND GFS BRINGING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES SAT NGT AND SUN. THIS ENERGY WAS KICKED NORTHEAST BY REINTENSIFICATION OF CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS ON SAT. IN ADDITION...SECONDARY CLOSED LOW SIMULTANEOUSLY SETTLES INTO NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA AREA AT THE SAME TIME. BOTH SYSTEMS RESULT IN INCREASING S-SW FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS ABLE TO PULL WARMER...MOIST CONDITIONS NWD INTO SRN WI. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WL LEAN MORE ON ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH TREND TOWARD FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SAT NGT AND EARLY SUN WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...LOW LEVELS COOL OFF MORE RAPIDLY SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN RESULTING IN QUICKER CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN. GFS SOLUTION WOULD HOLD OFF ON CHANGEOVER UNTIL SUN. HOWEVER...DESPITE FAVORING QUICKER CHANGEOVER...THINKING QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL WOULD BE LIGHTER DUE TO FASTER SOLUTION AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF SRN WI. COLD AIR FUNNELS INTO SRN WI BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY REDUCES PRECIP THREAT. -SN/-SHSN THREAT INCREASES AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WRN GTLAKES. ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO FEED LIGHT SNOW. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOWING REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. THIS UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT TIMING MAY BE SLOWED DUE TO EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OVER NORTHEAST CONUS. THE COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN ANCHORED OVER WI ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATION EXPECTED ON WED AHEAD OF NEXT WEAKER SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WED NGT OR THU. LATEST GFS 5H ANOMOLY 5DAY MEANS SHOW INCREASINGLY COLD PATTERN SETTING UP OVER WRN GTLAKES THROUGH FIRST 1.5 WEEKS OF DEC. LARGE POSITIVE ANOMOLIES EXPECTED TO FORM IN BOTH WRN ATLANTIC AND NRN PACIFIC WITH NEGATIVE ANOMOLY AND BROADSCALE TROFFING SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A TIME. ONSET OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE DELLS TO FOND DU LAC...THEN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UP TO ONE HALF INCH. && CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THURSDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM. .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 240253 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 953 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. A PRONOUNCED WIND SURGE IS MOVING STEADILY SOUTH AND WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 40S AT THE BEACHES SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. LAKE WINDS...WINDS AT BOTH PINEVILLE AND PINOPOLIS INDICATE WINDS ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE MOULTRIE UNTIL 6 AM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO FRIDAY. THEN...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS THEN SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH THE 23/00Z GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 23/00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THIS LEADS TO A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS IN LINE WITH HPC THINKING. AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. A GOOD MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT ITSELF. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WHETHER GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST AT KCHS...OR WHETHER SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10 KNOTS RESULTING IN LLWS. UPSTREAM OBS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS KCHS FOR SEVERAL HOURS INITIALLY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING VEERING 35 KT WINDS ALOFT...MARGINAL LLWS WOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS KSAV PRIOR TO 03Z...BUT EXPECT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND INITIALIZED KSAV WITH LLWS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN/MON IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE LEGS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE INITIAL WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING LEDGE TO COVER GUSTS TO 35-40 KT FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS. INCOMING RUC DATA SUGGEST MARGINAL GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE WIND SURGE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AT 35 KNOTS. MODIS WATER TEMPERATURE DATA INDICATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEYOND 40 NM...SO GALES COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR IN THE WARMER WATERS WERE MORE VIGOROUS MIXING WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO JAX...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD WINDS AT 25-30 KT FOR NOW SINCE THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AND HANDLE WITH A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A GALE WARNING MAY STILL BE NEEDED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT ATTM. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT A FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... GIVEN THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF EXCEEDING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDES THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTED VALUES RIGHT AT 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNINGS...ONLY A NEUTRAL OR HIGHER ANOMALY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS APPEARS QUITE LIKELY GIVEN THE VEERING WIND PROFILE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ045. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ330-352. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 202207 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 407 PM CST SUN NOV 20 2011 .DISCUSSION... MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY WITH 1031MB HIGH SITTING OVER MN. OVER THE NEXT WEEK...ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE COMING IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. OTHER THAN THAT...BIG CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS WEEK WAS HOW FRESH SNOW PACK WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES DURING THE BIG WARM UP THAT IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD FOR THANKSGIVING. SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US SNOW YESTERDAY ALREADY MOVING OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW IS QUICKLY TAKING CONTROL OF THE CONUS WITH A NICE BOWLING BALL LOW COMING INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRICTLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH ONLY SYSTEM OF NOTE EXPECTED TO PASS OFF TO THE SE OF THE MPX CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY /THIS IS THE CURRENT CALIFORNIA LOW/. 20.12 RUNS OF THE MODELS DID PULL THIS LOW NW QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT ONLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO NOW BRING THE THREAT OF MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES TO SE MN INTO WI TUESDAY. BIG PLAYER FOR THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK WILL BE SNOW COVER IN PLACE FROM YESTERDAYS STORM. HIGH RES /1 KM/ MODIS SATELLITE PASS TODAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK QUITE WELL...EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SODAK AND MOST OF THE CWA. SNOW PACK DEEPEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST IMPACT FROM THE SNOW ON TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS. WENT LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS DEEPER SNOW PACK REGION FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY...BUT VERY WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 30...SHOULD ALL BUT DO IN THIS SNOW PACK BY FRIDAY. MODEL OF CHOICE FOR TEMPERATURES WAS THE NAM TODAY...AS IT APPEARED TO INITIALIZE THE SNOW COVER THE BEST WHEN COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE ONLY AREA WHERE THE NAM WAS NOT FOLLOWED AS CLOSELY IS SE OF THE DEEPER SNOW COVER...WHERE THE NAM WAS LOOKING A LITTLE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WARM H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE IN TO WRN NOAM. THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING ON TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HEAD OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RATHER LARGE TODAY IN TERMS OF HANDLING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SENDS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TAKING PLACE ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER...SENDING A SFC LOW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP COMING SATURDAY AND THE COOL DOWN HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS...STUCK WITH THE CENTRAL REGION MODEL BLEND FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS...LOOKS WARM ENOUGH THAT WHATEVER WERE TO FALL WILL COME DOWN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. && .AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS /MVFR/ CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAKUP AND DISSIPATE OVER MN...AND NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING OR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TDA...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY NOON MONDAY. KMSP...PESKY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAKUP THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ MPG/JVM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 171048 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 448 AM CST THU NOV 17 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS/NAM PROG THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO MOVE EAST FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VEERING WIND DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP TNGT/FRIDAY. THUS...BREEZY NORTH WIND EARLY TODAY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY (NAM CROSS-SECTIONAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT.) WILL FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY SIMILAR TO NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HIGHER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K STILL TO HIGH FOR PCPN FRIDAY. && .MARINE...CAA AND WARM SST (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE OUTPUT)...925MB WIND/0-1KM NAM LAPSE RATE OUTPUT...AND MSLP GRADIENT SUGGEST THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z-20Z FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND FROM WEST TO EAST. WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (SUSTAINED WIND 25-30KT THUS NO GALE WARNING.) && .FIRE WEATHER...WIND EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW RED FLAG CRITERION BEFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS. YET... DRG THE 18-21Z PERIOD TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD WARRANT AN RFD FOR THE NERN SECTIONS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED DUE TO H5 HIGH SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MORNING STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. PAST MODEL RUNS KEPT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRUSHING THE CWA. HOWEVER... NEW RUNS ARE SLOWLY BRINGING A MORE AGGRESSIVE TROUGH THROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. TIMING OF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RANGES BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BETTER CONVERGENCE COMES IN. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEAR 90 TEMPS OUT WEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 54 75 67 83 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 66 45 74 62 82 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 69 53 79 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 68 51 76 65 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 67 55 71 68 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 65 49 76 63 85 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 68 54 76 66 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 68 57 72 70 81 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 161033 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 433 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY/TNGT FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THURSDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA/MSA TNGT. OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (LESS THAN 0.80 INCH PW VALUES PER THE GFS) DO NOT EXPECT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT A CLOUD DECK WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION AND WILL ADVECT OVER THE CWA/MSA. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL FCST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER FROPA TNGT. UTILIZED THE NAM DETERMINISTIC...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS THU. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH (POLAR JET/VERY LOW 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES NORTH OF TEXAS)...WILL FCST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC NAM WHEN CONSIDERING TEMP READINGS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT NOW (MODIFICATIONS NOTWITHSTANDING)...AND WL FCST COOLER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THAN NAM DETERMINISITIC AS CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS EVEN LOWER. && .MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER FROPA TONIGHT/THURSDAY WHEN CONSIDERING WARM SST VALUES (NEAR 70F NEARSHORE/75-80F OFFSHORE BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE) AND DETERMINISTIC NAM OUTPUT. WILL DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT FCSTRS TO ISSUE SCA FOR THE SECOND PERIOD TO BETTER DETERMINE TIMING OF ONSET. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE NAM/LOCAL ARW SUGGESTS 15KT SFC WIND OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE NERN SECTION...THIS AFTN...WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION. WILL ISSUE AN RFD FOR ALL BUT THE NERN CWA FOR THIS AFTN. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESUME IN THE EXTENDED AS HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AS PWATS WILL STILL AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH MORNING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...AND EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND...DUE TO AN INCREASE IN PWATS AND CAPE VALUES AS WELL AS DECENT LAPSE RATES EXISTING OVER THESE AREAS. GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...DUE TO A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDING THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE H5 HIGH. AND WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST H85 FLOW CREATING A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREAS MAY SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO OCCUR...HOWEVER AM THINKING THAT EVAPORATION WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE WARM MIDLEVELS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA IS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL. IT SEEMS LIKE A SIMILAR SETUP FROM THIS PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH...WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES TRYING TO ABSORB A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT IT IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SILENT POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 88 55 67 58 79 / 0 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 85 52 68 50 76 / 0 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 91 51 71 59 81 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 90 54 68 55 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 81 57 67 60 76 / 0 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 88 50 67 53 76 / 0 10 0 10 10 KINGSVILLE 90 54 68 55 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 81 58 66 63 78 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 131155 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 555 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING (MVFR VISIBILITIES EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST)...ALONG WITH NON- CONVECTIVE LLWS EAST OF STATE ROAD 16...WILL TRANSITION TO VFR CEILINGS/NO LLWS BY MID MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST (GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF US 77) ANTICIPATED YET WITH MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MODERATE/BREEZY WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY THIS AFTN...THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z MONDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS PROGS A QUASI- ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACRS NRN MEXICO/SWRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL... ANTICIPATE ISOLD LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLN DEPICTS PCPN OVER MAINLY THE NRN CWA MONDAY. WL FCST PCPN AREAWIDE MONDAY YET WITH 20 POP OVER THE NRN CWA AND LESS THAN 20 POP OVER THE SRN SECTIONS (SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING DISTURBANCE NOT EXPECTED INFLUENCE THE CWA/MSA UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.) MARINE...BASED ON 25KT+ 925MB ONSHORE FLOW AND SST VALUES (MODIS SST) ASSESSMENT...ANTICIPATE 15-20KT WIND OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT 4-6FT SEAS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-8FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WITH SCEC ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED THE SCA TO 06Z MONDAY BASED ON CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST AT 7FT EVEN IF WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DROPS TO 15-20KT. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH PICK UP A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA...AND DRAG IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NOW APPEAR TO EXIST LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSITIVE VORTICITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO TRACKS EAST. IN ADDITION...THE AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN DECENT...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST (ESPECIALLY OUT WEST) IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. LI VALUES REACHING NEAR -5C. THIS IS BECOMING A GREAT SET UP FOR SOME STORMS TO POSSIBLY BECOME EVEN STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ALL OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOOKED AT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF WETTING RAINS IS INCREASING. THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER IN BY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 80S...WITH A SLIGHT DROP INTO THE MID 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S MIDWEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 81 68 82 70 85 / 20 20 10 40 30 VICTORIA 82 66 81 66 81 / 20 20 20 50 50 LAREDO 86 64 86 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 20 ALICE 83 65 84 69 85 / 10 10 10 40 30 ROCKPORT 78 70 78 72 84 / 20 20 20 40 40 COTULLA 83 63 82 65 85 / 10 10 20 40 30 KINGSVILLE 82 67 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 30 30 NAVY CORPUS 78 70 78 71 85 / 20 20 10 40 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 131048 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 448 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS PROGS A QUASI- ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACRS NRN MEXICO/SWRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL... ANTICIPATE ISOLD LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLN DEPICTS PCPN OVER MAINLY THE NRN CWA MONDAY. WL FCST PCPN AREAWIDE MONDAY YET WITH 20 POP OVER THE NRN CWA AND LESS THAN 20 POP OVER THE SRN SECTIONS (SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING DISTURBANCE NOT EXPECTED INFLUENCE THE CWA/MSA UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.) && .MARINE...BASED ON 25KT+ 925MB ONSHORE FLOW AND SST VALUES (MODIS SST) ASSESSMENT...ANTICIPATE 15-20KT WIND OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT 4-6FT SEAS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-8FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WITH SCEC ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED THE SCA TO 06Z MONDAY BASED ON CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST AT 7FT EVEN IF WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DROPS TO 15-20KT. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH PICK UP A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA...AND DRAG IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NOW APPEAR TO EXIST LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSITIVE VORTICITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO TRACKS EAST. IN ADDITION...THE AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN DECENT...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST (ESPECIALLY OUT WEST) IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. LI VALUES REACHING NEAR -5C. THIS IS BECOMING A GREAT SET UP FOR SOME STORMS TO POSSIBLY BECOME EVEN STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ALL OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOOKED AT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF WETTING RAINS IS INCREASING. THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER IN BY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 80S...WITH A SLIGHT DROP INTO THE MID 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S MIDWEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 81 68 82 70 85 / 20 20 10 40 30 VICTORIA 82 66 81 66 81 / 20 20 20 50 50 LAREDO 86 64 86 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 20 ALICE 83 65 84 69 85 / 10 10 10 40 30 ROCKPORT 78 70 78 72 84 / 20 20 20 40 40 COTULLA 83 63 82 65 85 / 10 10 20 40 30 KINGSVILLE 82 67 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 30 30 NAVY CORPUS 78 70 78 71 85 / 20 20 10 40 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 121018 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 418 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CONDUSIVE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...DURING THE PERIOD. FURTHER...THE GFS PROGS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY OWING TO COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS (IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST) AND INCEREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER (OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT.) GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 295/300K SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL COMMENCE OVER THE WATERS TNGT AND OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA BY SUNDAY AFTN. FCSTG AFTN TEMPS TODAY/SUNDAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC. && .MARINE...NAM PROGS NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS TODAY WHICH COMBINED WITH 25KT 925MB WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST 15-20KT WIND OVER WATERS TODAY. NAM/GFS PROG 20KT SFC WIND OVER THE WATERS. YET WHEN CONSIDERING MODIS SST...ANTICIAPTE 15-20KT OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND AROUND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THUS ISSUED A SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR TODAY. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT INDICATES THAT SEA HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH 6-7 FT TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY. YET...WILL ONLY EXTEND THE SCA TO 00Z SUNDAY OWING IN PART TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY BASED IN PART ON 8 SECOND PERIOD SWELL PROGD BY THE WAVEWATCH TO APPROACH THE COAST. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH TEXAS. BEFOREHAND...ONGOING SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING UP TO NEAR 800MB... WITH PWATS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...HOWEVER DECENT LAPSE RATES BELOW THE CAP WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF EDGING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND COUNTIES. WEAKENING IN THE CAP BEGINS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EAST. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDER LATE IN THE MORNING. THE BEST DYNAMICS STILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER...MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-1700 J/KG WHILE CIN VALUES DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MODELS WANT TO PLACE THE CWA WITHIN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD AIDE IN LIFT. HOWEVER... AREAS ACROSS THE WEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A DECENT CAP DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 85H FLOW. THEREFORE...KEPT BEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY AS DECREASING TEMPERATURES WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. EXPECTING TO REMAIN WITHIN THE 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME COOLER. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH IS STILL FAR OUT IN TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 78 67 78 69 84 / 10 10 20 10 20 VICTORIA 75 65 79 68 84 / 10 10 20 10 30 LAREDO 80 62 81 69 86 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 79 64 80 67 86 / 10 10 20 10 20 ROCKPORT 76 70 75 72 83 / 10 10 20 10 20 COTULLA 76 61 80 67 84 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 79 66 79 68 86 / 10 10 20 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 77 69 75 72 83 / 10 10 20 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 290220 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 920 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .UPDATE... BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE EAST BY AROUND 11 PM AS MAIN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF MOVE EAST. SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS. TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FOG IN LOW SPOTS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT FROM GETTING ANY MORE PREVELANT. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STILL VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE SFC AS DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN PARTS OF THE EAST. THE LOW LEVELS /BELOW 5K FT/ REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WI MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE TO WARRANT KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AND IN THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK DESPITE COLD MID-LEVELS... DECREASING THREAT OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. DRY LOW LEVELS EXPCD TO PREVENT ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN WI LATER TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER WL NEED TO WATCH STRATUS FIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WL CONFINE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT TO EXTREME LAKESHORE AREAS FROM PORT WASHINGTON SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA. DUE TO SMALL AREA OF CONCERN...WL HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING BUT INCREASING RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN M/CLR CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE AFTN. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. 500MB TROUGH WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING WI SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MOST MODELS HANDLING THE LOW VERY SIMILARLY...BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END LIKELY. WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX AND GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SUN...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN MEASURING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA...WITH PROBABLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR BETTER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE START TIME...HOW EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHEAST WI SUN MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HELP THE AREA FILL IN WITH PRECIP FAIRLY EARLY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO WENT LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARING SKIES. LONG TERM... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENSUE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TUE. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S BY TUE. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY WED INTO THU...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BUMP THEM UP TO LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT ONE OR TWO FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THIS TREND IN MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID 40S BY THU AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF 500MB TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT SCOOTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT AND FRI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH CONNECTED AND CAUSES A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRING HIGH PRESSURE INTO SOUTHERN WI. WILL LIKELY DROP ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. JUST-BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING IN EASTERN CWA AS SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVELS BLO 5K FT REMAIN DRY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU SO STILL EXPCG VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVE...AND PARCHED LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT STRATUS FROM REFORMING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION DUE TO LATE NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY AIR. MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 11C. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE. APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DAVIS TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 282028 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE SFC AS DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN PARTS OF THE EAST. THE LOW LEVELS /BELOW 5K FT/ REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WI MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE TO WARRANT KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AND IN THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK DESPITE COLD MID-LEVELS... DECREASING THREAT OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. DRY LOW LEVELS EXPCD TO PREVENT ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN WI LATER TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER WL NEED TO WATCH STRATUS FIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WL CONFINE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT TO EXTREME LAKESHORE AREAS FROM PORT WASHINGTON SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA. DUE TO SMALL AREA OF CONCERN...WL HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING BUT INCREASING RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN M/CLR CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE AFTN. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. 500MB TROUGH WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING WI SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MOST MODELS HANDLING THE LOW VERY SIMILARLY...BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END LIKELY. WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX AND GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SUN...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN MEASURING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA...WITH PROBABLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR BETTER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE START TIME...HOW EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHEAST WI SUN MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HELP THE AREA FILL IN WITH PRECIP FAIRLY EARLY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO WENT LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARING SKIES. .LONG TERM... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENSUE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TUE. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S BY TUE. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY WED INTO THU...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BUMP THEM UP TO LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT ONE OR TWO FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THIS TREND IN MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID 40S BY THU AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF 500MB TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT SCOOTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT AND FRI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH CONNECTED AND CAUSES A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRING HIGH PRESSURE INTO SOUTHERN WI. WILL LIKELY DROP ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. JUST-BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING IN EASTERN CWA AS SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVELS BLO 5K FT REMAIN DRY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU SO STILL EXPCG VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVE...AND PARCHED LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT STRATUS FROM REFORMING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION DUE TO LATE NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 11C. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE. APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 281104 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 704 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A WINDOW OF FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL THEN PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A RARE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EXPERIMENTAL MODIS IMAGERY AT 08Z SHOWS DENDRITIC FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING...A GOOD INDICATION OF VALLEY FOG. KJHW IS WITHIN THE FOG AND HAS BEEN DOWN BELOW 1/4 MI SINCE 10Z. SO HAVE ADDED MORNING FOG TO THE FORECAST IN TYPICAL INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A SPS IS ALSO OUT NOTING BLACK ICE AS ONLY A FEW AREAS HAVE HAD MUCH DEICING WINTER ROAD TREATMENT. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...IT SHOULD FEEL MARKEDLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MANY SAW THEIR FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND THIS WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF -4C...SUN FILLED SKIES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE ONE INTERESTING FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PCPN OFF LK ERIE. WHILE IT CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...A HIGHLY SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL VARY FROM 200-240 DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH SFC-10K FT WINDS LIKELY TOO SHEARED TO ALLOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WILL THUS COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH SLGT-LOW CHC POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOUND OVER THE LAKE OR ALONG ITS NORTHERN CANADIAN SHORES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CAROLINAS AND WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS DEVELOPING NOREASTER WILL RAPIDLY TRACK UP THE EAST COAST CREATING NUMEROUS FORECAST PROBLEMS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WESTERN NEW YORK HOWEVER WILL FIND ITSELF FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT IT SHOULD AVOID MOST OF THE ACTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO WRAP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...HOWEVER AM THINKING THAT THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THE LOW TRACK IS JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MISS US. THAT SAID...IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE A RATHER DISMAL DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND AND TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL COURTESY OF THE COLD UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S NEAR THE LAKES WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND LAGGING IN THE 30S. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE...A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INDICATED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN THAT FACT IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIMITED...MOSTLY TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES IF AT ALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRYING THINGS OUT FURTHER AND RESULTING IN A SUNNIER SECOND HALF TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY KEEP A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS THE SKIES OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MODERATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND GREATER INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER/WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS COMPARED TO SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DIPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. AS WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN MISS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW DIVES UNDERNEATH OUR REGION LEAVING US UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST GENERAL CLOUDINESS. GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR THE LAKE WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 40S. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WESTERN NEW YORK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CREEP CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO MARCH OUT OF THE MIDWEST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AT THIS POINT IT MAY BE JUST AS LIKELY THAT HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ASIDE FROM TYPICAL LIFR CONDITIONS WITH INLAND VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS REGION- WIDE. THIS WILL INCLUDE CLR-SCT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...DESPITE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE STATE. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL CONSIST OF VFR CIGS OF 5-10K FT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY...THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WAVES WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER LAKES ON SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>006-010- 011-013-014-019-085. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF SHORT TERM...WOOD LONG TERM...WOOD AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF MARINE...RSH  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 230941 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 541 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK NORTH OF PA ON MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP A MOISTURE LADEN EAST COAST STORM TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 08Z OBS SUGGEST MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF URBAN LOCATIONS AND AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ESP OVR THE NW MTNS. HRRR SFC RH SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE CHILLY START...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NR NORMAL READINGS BY THIS AFTN. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M50S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO L60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW...ENTERING W ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS INTO PA TONIGHT WITH THE CHC OF A FEW -SHRA TOWARD DAWN. AS SFC LOW PASSES NORTH OF PA MONDAY...A ROUND OF SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN MOST SPOTS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF RANGES FROM ARND 0.2 INCHES NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MDL DATA SUGGESTS A TSRA IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS WITH FROPA MON AFTN. ALTHOUGH MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY...SURGE OF WAA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE M50S NW MTNS...TO M60S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALL MDL DATA INDICATES RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO PA MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF FAIR AND MILD WX. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK TOWARD A FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SCENARIO. DESPITE TIMING DIFFS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MDL DATA THAT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD THRU PA BY LATE WED. AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP JUST NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY. DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF WAVE...MDL THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA THURS NIGHT. COLD/DRY NW FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY BY FRI/SAT...AS TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE E COAST. SOME INDICATION THAT A CLIPPER LOW COULD PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE HEADLINING A QUIET PERIOD FOR WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL BRING PATCHY MIST/FOG THAT WILL RESTRICT VSBYS MAINLY IN VALLEYS...BRINGING SCT IFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER SUSQ AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. AFTER 13Z ALL FOG/MIST SHOULD HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL AREAS FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY. FOG COVERAGE MON MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK... MON...CHC -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSS. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED-THU...CHC -SHRA. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056- 058-063>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 180829 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. EARLY MORNING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CU/SC TODAY. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WL PUSH THROUGH SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING...USHERING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN THE THICKENING CLOUDS. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SPREADING IN FROM EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK WAVE OVER NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. AN ISOLATED -SHRA MAY SPREAD INTO NRN CWA LATER THIS MRNG FROM THIS FEATURE. A SMALL THREAT LINGERS FOR A BRIEF -SHRA OR PATCHY -DZ THIS AFTN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED...RESULTING IN MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHERN WI BEGINNING TONIGHT. INITIAL SURGE OF ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO SOUTHEAST WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT SPREADING OVER THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER LIFT AFFECTING SEVERAL INLAND TIERS. LAKE INDUCED CAPE EXCEEDS 300 J AS DELTA-T RISES TO 16C. COMBINATION OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA OVER THE LAKE ZONES...WITH SCT -SHRA FARTHER INLAND. HELD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE A BIT WEST OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST OH BY WED EVENING...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE OVERALL SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. CURRENT MODELS NOW INDICATE SOME OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL PUSH INTO IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE PARTICULARLY WET FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO IN THE EAST. WITH THIS SHIFT IN MODELS...BUMPED POPS UP QUITE A BIT. WAS NOT READY TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS QUITE YET...AS MODELS MAY NOT HAVE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION. IF MODELS KEEP THIS TREND THOUGH...POPS WILL LIKELY BE GOING UP EVEN MORE. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THE APPROACHING STORM IS THE WIND. MODELS SHOWING A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER DUE TO RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE TEMPS...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE. COULD SEE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BUT STILL BREEZY WINDS FARTHER INLAND. IF NAM SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...WIND WOULD BE FAIRLY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHER MODELS BACK OFF THE WINDS A BIT FROM WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY. WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. IF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ROLL IN A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...OR LINGER A BIT LATER ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH. SHOULD SEE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE MORE PROBABLE. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. AFTER THAT...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AND NONE LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGH THIN CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD SUCCUMB TO INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SC/CU AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. CU RULES FAVOR BKN CIGS DVLPNG BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BELOW 3K FEET AND MIXING MAY CAUSE MAINLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE LAKE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SHRA DEVELOPING IN THE EAST. && .MARINE...LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING OVER TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FARTHER WEST MOVEMENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS PROGS...RESULTS IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THU MRNG BEFORE LOOSENING. THE INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS REACHING THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WED NGT INTO THU. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE REMAINS AROUND 14C. WITH COLD AIR FEEDING INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO REACH LAKE SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE RAMP UP SITUATION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVY GOING INTO AFFECT TONIGHT...RAMPING UP TO GALE WATCH BY WED AFTN. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR 50KT WIND GUSTS REACHING LAKE SURFACE WED NGT INTO EARLY THU. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TODAY...MAY POSSIBLY UPGRADE TO STORM WATCH OR WARNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT LAKESHORE AREA FOR A TIME WED EVE BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTH LATER WED NGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 170816 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 316 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF A KENOSHA TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE. THE CULPRIT IS THE PERSISTENT STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA STRETCHING ITS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THE AIR TODAY IS VERY DRY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT EASILY THIS AFTERNOON... DROPPING TO THE MID 20S MOST PLACES. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBO OF STABILIZING DIURNAL TRENDS AND THE CANADIAN LOW FINALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A LARGE 500MB TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES BY TUE MORNING...AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL WI ON TUE. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS. MODEL SNDGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT LAYER OF SATURATION...SO INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THEN DRIFT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHEAST IL TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C AND MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 11C MID LAKE GIVES DELTA-T AROUND 13C...IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. .LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THU MORNING...DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION... WITH THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE THIS WEEK TO DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. PATCHY FROST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EXPECTED...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A SFC TROUGH ACROSS WI LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. MODELS BACKED OFF FOR POPS...AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MEAGER...BUT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...SO SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN MENTIONED...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN FOR THAT LONG OF A PERIOD. AFTER TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS WIPED OUT WITH MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY DIMINISHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. && .MARINE... THE GALE WARNING FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT HOUSE NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN AREA ONCE THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY BE MET AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 080935 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 535 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODIS 11-3.7 IR SATL IMAGERY CONFIRMS DENDRITIC FOG IN THE RIVER AND STREAM VALLEYS. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IN PA THROUGH TONIGHT. +14-15C 850MB TEMPS WILL SUPPORT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S OR 10-15F ABOVE EARLY OCTOBER CLIMO. CLR/CALM CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN OVRNGT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND PATCHY RIVER/STREAM VLY FOG DEVELOPING TWD DAWN SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN...AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MTNS /OR 13-18F ABOVE NORMAL/. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M40S OVER THE NORTH...TO LOWER 50S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH. PATCHY FOG WILL BE COMMON IN THE RVR VLYS BOTH MORNINGS AND SOME OF IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. MUCH THANKS TO THIS HIGH FOR PROVIDING US WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEARLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS. AN INCREASING EAST TO SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN THIS RETREATING HIGH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH FROM THE SE STATES WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY DAMP CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A BELT OF SERLY 850 MB WINDS WITH U-ANOMALIES BETWEEN -2 AND -3 ST DEVIATIONS WILL BE DIRECTED RIGHT INTO THE FCST AREA WED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY...925 MB U-ANOMALY IS EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS SERN PENN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO THE HIGH CHC AND LOW LIKELY CATEGORY FOR ABOUT THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY...THEN RAISED BY A LITTLE MORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE AREA OF BEST LLVL MOISTURE FLUX MIGRATES NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. EC...GFS AND GEFS CONTAIN STRONG DIFFS IN THE LOCATION OF THE 995-1000 MB SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GEFS IS THE WEAKEST AND TAKES TWO...APPROXIMATELY 1005 MB CENTERS NE OF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER/ SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST AND IN THE MIDDLE WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 200 MI ESE OF NYC AT 12Z THURS. THE EC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MODELS AND DISPLAYS A DOUBLE-BARRELED SFC LOW JUST EAST OF KORF AND SE OF KILM WITH THE STRONGER EAST/NE FLOW ACROSS PENN BECOMING ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS NOTABLE TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHC POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. BY FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DEEPENING...500 MB TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION. EC IS THE MOST OMINOUS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH...AND SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. THE EC'S MORE DEFINED RIDGING TO ITS NORTH HINTS AT SOMEWHAT OF A REX BLOCK FORMING. POPS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL DROP STEADILY BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GEFS INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS OF ONLY ABOUT PLUS 1-2C FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT FOR ALL OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 09Z UPDATE... IR SATL LOOP SHOWS FOG IN THE RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS ACRS CNTRL PA. VIS AT AOO HAS DETERIORATED TO IFR WITH 2SM BR REPORTED AT APPROX 0915Z. BASED ON VIS TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...A 2-4HR PD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BTWN 10-14Z. IPT SHOULD BE THE NEXT SITE TO GO DOWN...WITH SEG USUALLY A REASONABLY PROXY. UNV MAY ALSO SEE SOME LCL VIS RESTRICTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY VLY FOG DEVELOPMENT. PERSISTENCE FAVORS IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KIPT AND KAOO. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH CONDS RETURNING TO VFR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG/RESTRICTIONS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE VFR FLYING IN CNTRL PA THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE NGT-WED...BCMG MVFR/IFR WITH PDS OF RAIN DEVELOPING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...STEINBUGL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 061122 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 722 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PENNSYLVANIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... DAYBREAK READINGS ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NRN TIER...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE MESONET DATA IS ALSO SHOWING READINGS IN THE MID 30S ACRS PTNS OF THE CNTRL MTNS AND MID SUSQ VLY...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST LKLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS SURROUNDING STATE COLLEGE. THE FROST ADVY FOR THE NRN MTNS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTL 9AM. THE LATEST HI RES MODIS IR SATL SHOWS FOG PATTERN IN THE N-CNTRL RVR/STREAM VLYS WITH 20+ DEGREE AIR-WATER SPREAD. EXPECT ANY FOG OR LOW CEILINGS TO BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS TO REBOUND NICELY - INTO THE MID 60S TO 70F - BUT END UP A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FROPA. ANOTHER CLR/CALM NGT SHOULD SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH GUID FAVORING THE ERN VLYS WITH THE COLDEST OVRNGT READINGS. WILL MENTION FROST BUT LET THE DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF ANOTHER HEADLINE IS NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LGT WINDS AND WARM TEMPS BY DAY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS. DESPITE THE DRY AIR...AM PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP ANOMALOUS RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD AFFORD A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /ESP MAX TEMPS/ WITH NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TOUCH IN LOW 80S IN THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ALL INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CONNECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT MDL TIMING SUGGESTS OUR THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE WED-THU. A DEEPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN WITH ENERGY DIVING SOUTH EASTERLY FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IR SATL SHOWS SHALLOW RVR VLY FOG OVR N-CNTRL PA...NOW IMPACTING IPT WITH 500' CIGS. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF WITH CONDS RETURNING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. WILL ADD A 500' CLOUD GROUP AT IPT FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE /10-12 FRI/ WITH A VERY SIMILAR RADIATIONAL FOG SET-UP EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING IN CNTRL PA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF/PATCHY A.M. VALLEY FOG WITH LCL RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE...BUT VFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... FRI-MON...A.M. VLY FOG - OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-011- 012-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...STEINBUGL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 060946 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 546 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 09Z MESONET OBS SHOW TEMPS ACRS THE NRN TIER MCKEAN/POTTER/TIOGA CNTYS BTWN 32-36F...WITH COUDERSPORT THE LOW SPOT AT 30F. THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WILL LKLY TOUCH THE UPPER 20S. THE MESONET DATA IS ALSO SHOWING READINGS IN THE MID 30S ACRS THE RURAL VALLEYS OF THE CNTRL MTNS AND MID SUSQ VLY...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE OUTLYING AREAS SURROUNDING STATE COLLEGE. THE FROST ADVY FOR THE NRN MTNS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTL 9AM. LATEST HI RES MODIS IR SATL SHOWS FOG PATTERN IN THE N-CNTRL RVR/STREAM VLYS WITH 20+ DEGREE AIR-WATER SPREAD. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS TO REBOUND NICELY - INTO THE MID 60S TO 70F - BUT END UP A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FROPA. ANOTHER CLR/CALM NGT SHOULD SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH GUID FAVORING THE ERN VLYS WITH THE COLDEST OVRNGT READINGS. WILL MENTION FROST BUT LET THE DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF ANOTHER HEADLINE IS NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LGT WINDS AND WARM TEMPS BY DAY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS. DESPITE THE DRY AIR...AM PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP ANOMALOUS RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD AFFORD A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /ESP MAX TEMPS/ WITH NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TOUCH IN LOW 80S IN THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ALL INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CONNECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT MDL TIMING SUGGESTS OUR THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE WED-THU. A DEEPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN WITH ENERGY DIVING SOUTH EASTERLY FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ...09Z UPDATE... IR SATL SHOWS SHALLOW RVR VLY FOG OVR N-CNTRL PA. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT THIS WOULD IMPACT LCL TERMINALS OVR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS 06Z SCHEDULED TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING IN CNTRL PA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF/PATCHY A.M. VALLEY FOG WITH LCL RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE...BUT VFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... FRI-MON...VFR NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-011- 012-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...STEINBUGL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 050901 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 415 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 .SYNOPSIS... AT UPPER LEVELS... THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY TROUGH OVER WRN STATES WITH LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...SHARP RIDGE EWD TO EAST COAST WITH A WEAKNESS OVER CNTRL GULF COAST...AND A TROUGH JUST OFF ERN SEABOARD WITH 555DM JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...WRN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WAVE SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND THEN DAMPENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH RIDGE EWD WITH AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST TO MIDWEST TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH ERN TROUGH THAT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. ASSOCD LOW SHIFTS NEWD INTO FAR NE CANADA THEN OFFSHORE. LOCALLY... THIS RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS. WITH LOCAL AREA BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH AND ADVANCING RIDGE...DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE FORMING WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON LATE THURSDAY...WEAKENS IT EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING IT IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT DEEP MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN SITU JUST S OF FL WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD ALONG THE E COAST OF FL...WHILE ALSO ADVECTING WWD FM THE WRN ATLC. (SEE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DETAILS). AT LOWER LEVELS... MAIN FEATURE ARE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A 1026MB HIGH LOCATED OVER UPR OH VALLEY AND A DEEP LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY THIS COMBINATION HAS FAVORED CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ...LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES. DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS LOW SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...CANADIAN WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND BE REINFORCED BY OH VALLEY HIGH ALSO SHIFTING ESE AND THEN BUILD DOWN EAST COAST ON FRI AND OFFSHORE BY FRI NIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOCAL GRADIENT WILL INCREASINGLY TIGHTEN THRU SHORT TERM...AND LONG FETCH OF ENE THEN E WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NE GULF REGION ESPECIALLY IMPACTING ESPECIALLY THE MARINE AREA AND ERN COUNTIES. THIS HIGH BUILDING SWD WILL ALSO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EWD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH INVERTED TROUGH WILL ADVECT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WWD TO THE CWA THURS INTO FRO AS INVERTED TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WDLY SCT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI SE THIRD OF CWA OTHERWISE...ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BUT AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING A SURFACE REFLECTION LEAVING A LARGE AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES AND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... TODAY...NO POPS. HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 COAST TO MID 80S INLAND. TONIGHT...NO POPS. LOWS FROM MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 AT COAST. THURSDAY...20 PCT POPS AT NIGHT SE THIRD OF AREA. HIGHS MID 80S. LOWS MID-UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S COAST. FRIDAY...ISOLD-WDLY SCT POPS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM ATLC. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)... THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS AS MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION REGARDING THE SUBTROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE 04.12Z AND 05.00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING A WEAK CLOSED SURFACE LOW (AROUND 1007 MB) NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENING THE LOW AS IT PUSHES NORTH TO NEAR APALACHICOLA BY LATE TUESDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WAS PLACED IN THE ECMWF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS DUE TO ITS BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THAT CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE. THEREFORE...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED ABOUT TWO-THIRDS 00Z ECMWF...AND ONE-THIRD 00Z GFS WHICH HAS MOVED MUCH CLOSER TO THAT SOLUTION. THE FACT THAT THE 05.00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. OBVIOUSLY...THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS PLACES THE TAE CWA MORE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WITH ANY SUCH LOW THAT WOULD BE TRACKING NORTH. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLACES NEARLY 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN...POPS WERE NUDGED UP ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW IS STILL VERY INTERESTING. AS THE PRESSURE AND HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE AROUND THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE WEEKEND...THAT AREA WILL BE IN SOMEWHAT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND CERTAINLY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THERE WILL BE HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS GRADIENT FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE DEVELOPING LOW. THEREFORE ITS ORIGINS WILL NOT BE TROPICAL IN NATURE. AND YET...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BY MONDAY-TUESDAY THEY INDICATE MORE OF A WARM CORE STRUCTURE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-500MB THK AT THE CENTER OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED CIRCULATION...AND THERMAL WIND VECTORS IN THE SAME LAYER WRAP AROUND THE LOW IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION. THE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER WATER THAT HAS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL 29-30C...AND 850-300MB BULK SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF DROPS TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BY MONDAY. BOTH ARE INDICATIVE OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY...THIS LOW WILL BE ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON...EVEN IF IT ONLY ATTAINS SUBTROPICAL STATUS. AT THE VERY LEAST IT SHOULD BE A BREEZY AND WET START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. && .MARINE...AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST. CAUTIONARY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED OVER APALACHEE BAY AND NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS. AS THE EASTERLY SURGE DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED ON TONIGHT. HOWEVER... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...CAUTIONARY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WSW-ENE AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME (05Z) AND CLOUD HEIGHT SAMPLING TOOLS SUGGEST THESE AROUND AROUND 12000 FT AGL. A LAYER AROUND THIS HEIGHT WAS INCLUDED PRIOR TO 13Z AT THE THREE EASTERN TERMINALS (TLH...VLD...ABY). LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY TODAY...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING IN SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT VLD AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TLH. ANY CU SHOULD REMAIN SCT AROUND 4000-5000 FT. ONE VSBY CONCERN IS RELATED TO A SMOLDERING WILDFIRE THAT FLARED UP AGAIN TODAY ABOUT 40 MILES ENE OF VLD. THE SMOKE PLUME ON SATELLITE SEEMED SMALL AND RAGGED...SO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WERE INCLUDED. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME 4-7SM VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HAZE IF WINDS ORIENT CORRECTLY. && .FIRE WEATHER... WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH TODAY ALTHOUGH THE DURATION OF RH BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WILL BE LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. MODIS SATELLITE PASS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON REVEALED MANY SMOKE PLUMES ACROSS ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND NW FLORIDA SO IT SEEMS THAT CONDITIONS WERE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW WILDFIRES TO BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES. DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA FIRE WX ZONES TODAY (75 TO 90). SUCH VALUES ONLY NEED TO COINCIDE WITH ONE HOURLY OBSERVATION OF RH OF 35 PERCENT OR LOWER FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE MET...SO A MORE EXPANSIVE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY. DISPERSIONS REMAIN HIGH FOR THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE SAME AREA AS TODAYS WARNING FOR SIMPLICITY. DATA FROM SACC SUGGESTS ERC VALUES RUNNING AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE EVEN IN OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...AND ONGOING DROUGHT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF EXACT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET...THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE QUITE HIGH AREAWIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PARTICULARLY TODAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 85 55 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 20 10 PANAMA CITY 80 62 86 63 82 / 0 0 0 10 10 DOTHAN 84 54 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALBANY 85 54 84 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 VALDOSTA 85 56 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 20 10 CROSS CITY 84 59 85 63 83 / 0 0 10 20 20 APALACHICOLA 82 61 83 65 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...COASTAL BAY...COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL WAKULLA...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND FRANKLIN...INLAND GULF...INLAND JEFFERSON...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...WASHINGTON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON... COASTAL BAY...COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL WAKULLA... GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND FRANKLIN...INLAND GULF...INLAND JEFFERSON...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON... JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...WASHINGTON. GM...NONE. && $$ BLOCK/LAMERS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 202154 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS UTAH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A REGION OF 250-550 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FURTHER DRYING ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH. REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING THE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLOW...AND MODEST...WARMING TREND. AIRMASS SHOULD BE QUITE DRY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE NO MENTION OF CONVECTION....EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS EJECTS A WEAK WAVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THE WEAKENING WAVE THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER AND INDICATES THAT IT WILL HAVE MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AND THERE ARE CERTAINLY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT IT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03 TO 04Z THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. && .FIRE WEATHER....LINGERING MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 190944 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 544 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TRACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCU BANKED AGAINST THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...THE RESULT OF MOIST UPSLOPING SERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE...MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG...MAINLY IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. AS OCCURRED SUN AM...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ARND 13Z. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE MDL DATA SUGGESTS STRATOCU ACROSS THE SC MTNS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT...LIKELY NOT BREAKING UP BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THIS AFTN. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO SREF POPS...WHICH SUGGEST SHRA REACH THE NW MTNS DURING THE AFTN...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. RETREATING SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LGT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TDY. ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUKKIT INDICATES GUSTS NR 20KTS LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF LL JET. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE BALANCED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER TDY...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE THOSE OF SUNDAY /MAINLY IN THE 60S/. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF RANGES FROM BTWN 0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES. GEFS LL JET AND PWAT ANOMALIES SUGGESTS BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT OVR THE NW MTNS...AND EARLY TUE AM ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLOUD COVER AND SURGE OF HIGHER DWPTS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUES...LEAVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DIE OUT ACROSS SE PA ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL -SHRA TUE AFTN ACROSS THE SE. HOWEVER...WANING LG SCALE FORCING SUGGEST MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OVER BY MIDDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON TUES...SO DESPITE 850 TEMPS NR 12C...TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO RISE HIGHER THAN THE U60S/L70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST THRU SAT...AS MED RANGE GUIDANCE HANDLING EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW IN A SIMILAR MANNER. BULK OF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL RUNS TRACK UPPER LOW SLOWLY SEWRD TO ARND MICHIGAN BY FRI/SAT...AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS PA. LATEST GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST THURSDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PA...AND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN PA. GEFS...AS WELL AS OPER EC AND CMC...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...ESP EASTERN PA. TEMPS WED-FRI ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE ABV NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO MILD NIGHTS ASSOC WITH CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DWPTS. MDL DIVERGENCE BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT BY SAT NITE/SUN. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL MDL DATA STILL SHOWING UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER OR JUST WEST OF PA. SO...ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE MAY HAVE SHIFTED EAST...STILL NEED TO MENTION CHC OF SHRA THRU NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COMBINATION OF LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEP A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS UPSLOPE FLOW BUT A GREATER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ISOLD IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CIGS AT JST...UNV...AOO AND IPT. ANY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FORM AROUND 09Z...AND DISSIPATING OR LIFTING BY 15Z. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAER TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...EARLY TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... MMON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. WED...VFR. THU-FRI...MVFR POSS IN SCT SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD AVIATION...CERU/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 180934 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 534 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING STRATOCU BANKED AGAINST THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA. SHORT RANGE MDL DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS THIS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AM. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE LANCASTER/YORK COUNTIES...WHERE STRATOCU COULD BACK IN FROM THE MOIST EASTERLY FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD HELP MODIFY OUR COOL AIR MASS...WITH AFTN READINGS A COUPLE DEGS HIGHER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS NR 6C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRATOCU TONIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND PERSISTENT SERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ASCEND THE MTNS. ELSEWHERE...CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY ONE...AS DRY AIR MASS RESULTS IN CONDS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CAN/T RULE OUT A TOUCH OF FROST OVR THE N MTNS...WHERE TEMPS LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE 30S. STAGNANT WX PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY...AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GRT LKS...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WITH A CHC OF LATE DAY SHRA OVR THE W MTNS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIRLY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE...SIGNALING THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ENS MEAN QPF RANGES FROM NR 0.5 INCHES OVR THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SE ZONES. THE DYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL STRETCH OUT SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION TUE AFTN. ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM OVR THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SW FLOW AND MILDER...MORE HUMID AIR TO CENTRAL PA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF ASSOC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST THURSDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOC WITH FROPA. GEFS...AS WELL AS OPER EC AND CMC...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK. EVEN AFTER SFC FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...UNSETTLED...SHOWERY WX IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BULK OF MDL GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER TROF REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. A WARMER PATTERN OVERALL FOR PA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE WARMER NIGHTS DUE TO MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COMBINATION OF LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER PRIMARILY THE SC MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...SCT LIGHT AM VALLEY FOG POSS...LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS. MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR POSS IN SCT SHOWERS. WED...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 160926 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 526 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH OF I-80 COULD ACTUALLY SEE A FREEZE THIS AM /JOHNSONBURG 31F AT 08Z/. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT OBS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN THE M30S AND L40S. TODAY WILL DAWN MSUNNY OVER ALL BUT THE NW MTNS..WHERE STRATOCU CONTINUE TO BLOW OFF LK ERIE. HOWEVER...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THICKENING CIRRUS UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...EXPECT GRADUALLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TDY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPS A BIT UNDER WHAT THE 850 TEMPS COULD SUPPORT. MAX READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U50S MTNS...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...HELPING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF BKN TO POSSIBLY OVC MID CLOUDS. SHOULD THIS EVENT NOT UNFOLD AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH...AS PWATS WILL REMAIN LOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED DIRECTLY OVR PA. MDL DATA TRACKS SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN OVR THE REGION...SO FCST REMAINS DRY. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST A BRIGHTENING TREND BY SAT AFTN...AS LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE ADDED SUNSHINE COULD PUSH TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH MOST SPOTS WELL INTO THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL MDL DATA INDICATING LG SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL PA. THUS...OUR STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEFS PWATS REMAIN IN THE -1 TO -2SD RANGE...INDICATING THE CHILLY MORNINGS WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AM. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND STRETCH OUT SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE...BRIEF 12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH LOWER POPS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND...AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TO SCTD AFTERNOON TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GEFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS NEXT WEEK...AS SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH DRAWS WARMER AIR INTO THE STATE. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PERSIST ACROSS PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN MOST PLACES. VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NW WINDS. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010- 011. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 272201 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 355 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH. WESTERLY FLOW WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH. GPS-MET SENSOR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HOVERING AROUND 1.20 INCHES IN SALT LAKE CITY. AFTERNOON MODIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES STATEWIDE. AIRMASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE NORTHWEST. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE AT 2100 UTC. ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS DECENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS WHAT HAS BEEN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ENABLING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED STATEWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST ON SUNDAY CUTTING OFF FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE. AIRMASS WHICH IS IN PLACE WILL MODIFY A BIT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LOWER FROM TODAYS VALUES. DECENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE... EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WITH WEAK SHEAR...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED. SLOW DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST DECENT TROUGH OF THE LATE SUMMER. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND A LARGELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A WINDY DAY CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND QUICKLY WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS A SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION SHOW A DRY AND COOLER PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z WHEN A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED. THIS WIND SHIFT TIMING MAY OCCUR EARLIER DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SLC VALLEY. BEST THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL BE BETWEEN 01 AND 05Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE THROUGH TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AND GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 271647 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1030 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY THEN START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE KSLC SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AT 1.05 INCHES AND THE SALT LAKE CITY GPS-MET SENSOR INDICATES THAT THIS HAS RISEN TO NEAR 1.20 INCHES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES THAT SIMILAR VALUES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATER TODAY. SO ANTICIPATE SOME POTENTIAL SUPPRESSION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...FOR A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WILL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS ALREADY 500-100 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASE CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL 75-150 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA. EXPECT THIS INHIBITION TO ERODE BY 1900 UTC WITH TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION SOON FOLLOWING. NORTH WILL DESTABILIZE OVER THE SAME PERIOD AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE. WITH THE STATE UNDER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE REGION THAT WOULD LEAD TO BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...THEREFORE ANTICIPATE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER THAN TYPICAL LFC HEIGHTS FOR THE GREAT BASIN ...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2000M AGL...COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. ANTICIPATE SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BOUNDARY MERGERS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE BEHIND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH IS PRIMARY REASON THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED. HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURE AND POP GRIDS THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS. AWAY FROM STORMS...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE...WITH HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AND GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING AVIATION...SCHOENING FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 270835 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECIONS .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. WEAK SFC COOL FRONT WL EXIT SOUTHEAST WI EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE VCNTY OF FRONT INTERACTING WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET TO CAUSE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS EXPCD TO ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF WI THIS MRNG BUT MAY LINGER FOR A TIME BEYOND 12Z. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT HELPING TO MINIMIZE WIDESPREAD FOG THREAT THIS MRNG AS WELL. ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS TO RESULT IN FEW-SCT CU REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRY AIR AND MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS WITH M/S CONDITIONS EXPCD FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. WINDS TURNING ONSHORE WL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER WRN CWA TNGT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE...HOWEVER SOME CONCERN OVER AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WL LIMIT FOG MENTION TO WI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW AREAS OF WEST. PER MODIS IMAGERY...LAKE SFC TEMP AROUND 21.5C. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER LAKE TONIGHT CAUSES DELTA T TO APPROACH 12 DEGREES. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE AREA LATE TNGT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW WL CONT M/CLR WORDING. .SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ON NAM...WITH GFS SHOWING SOME CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS NOW DO NOT HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...REDUCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ONSHORE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY NEAR THE SHORE...COMBINED WITH DELTA T VALUES IN THE 10 TO 12 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE...BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN 1000/850MB LAYER FAIRLY DRY ON GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS...WITH NAM SHOWING MORE MOISTURE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR LAKE GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH QUIET WEATHER. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S SUNDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH AIRMASS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY OTHERWISE. WENT WITH DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA. NAM DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING IN. THUS...WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. GFS TAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH THE AREA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME...SO LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR TUESDAY. STILL SOME EFFECTS OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT TO LEAVE LOW POPS IN FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN OCCURS UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ONLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...SLOWER ON THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRIER AIR PUSH BEHIND SFC COOL FRONT MINIMIZING WIDESPREAD FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MRNG. EXPC FEW-SCT CU REDEVELOPING THIS MRNG AFTER MID CLOUDS FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDE SOUTH OF AREA. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM WEST. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SFC FRONT WL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WL CAUSE WAVES TO EXCEED 4 FEET. STRONGEST WINDS EXPCD OVER THE SOUTH...SO WL POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR SRN THREE ZONES FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ644>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 260845 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 445 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE IRENE WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE HARDLY ANY EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE HURRICANE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT AIR IS GETTING DRIER AT THE SAME TIME. WINDS OFF THE LAKE ARE CREATING LOW CLOUDS AND MAY EVEN MAKE A SPOT OF DZ ACROSS THE N VERY EARLY THIS AM. IN GENERAL...THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A REALLY NICE DAY. TOWERING CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES COMBINE FORCES. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN THOSE CLOUDS...AND HIGHS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MILDER THAN NORMS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE TO SPEAK OF FOR WX ON THE PERIPHERY OF EYE-RENE. BUT...THERE MAY BE AN ADVANCE BAND OF CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH MAY TRY TO POKE INTO THE SERN COS LATER AT NIGHT. QUITE A DEWPOINT/PWAT/THETA-E GRADIENT FROM E TO WEST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE HWRF IS CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER...WITH THE GFS 2ND CLOSEST FOLLOWED BY THE NAM...THE ECMWF/UKMET TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK BUT SIMILAR IN SPEED TO THE NAM...AND THE CANADIAN WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT. THE GFS HAS MADE A JOG TO THE WEST TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY-LEFT ECMWF...WHILE ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS OFFSHORE. A SIMILAR TREND IS NOTED IN THE MAJORITY OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK HAS FOLLOWED ALONG AS WELL. OVERALL THE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY NARROW BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF TROPICAL RNFL ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM STILL MAKES THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT/UNCERTAIN. ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH OF IRENE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO USE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR GRIDDED POPS AND QPF. EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA STILL HAS THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE HWO. IRENE IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO A LG SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY NWLY CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND REBOUNDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF IRENE SHOULD AFFORD A SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF AND HRRR DATA BOTH SUPPORT IFR CONDS THRU ARND 13Z AT IPT...MDT AND LNS. OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS THE NW MTNS /BFD/...WHERE BKN STRATOCU HAS KEPT FOG A BAY SO FAR. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CIGS OR DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AT BFD FOR A COUPLE HOURS SURROUNDING DAWN. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN AND GROUND NOT AS WET. A BRIEF DIP TO IFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AT AOO AND UNV BTWN 10Z-12Z. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL MOST STUBBORN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. 03Z SREF DATA INDICATES IFR CONDS COULD PERSIST AT BFD UNTIL ARND NOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF TO VFR CONDS MOST SPOTS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT-BKN CU. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PM TSRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA IN VICINITY OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK... FRI...AM FOG POSSIBLE. SAT...ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. SUN...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EASTERN PA. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 132035 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011 .UPDATE... ADDED FIRST 24 HOUR DISCUSSION ALONG WITH AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM UPPER LOW OVER NW IOWA/SW WI/NW IL WILL SCOOT ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING. WITH IT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...WITH CAPE VALUES A LITTLE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND 6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB SEVERE. STORMS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING VORT MAX BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE USUAL LOW LYING AREAS WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ACTUALLY POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW. 22C LAKE SFC TEMP PER MODIS 8-DAY AVERAGE...AND 10-11C 850MB AIR COMING DOWN THE LAKE...GIVES ALMOST A 13C DIFFERENCE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEING GENERATED DUE TO THIS FEATURE. THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT A MINIMUM...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH A MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUN AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY GUSTY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY SUN MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH ALL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER IA/WI LATE AT NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY RADIATION FOG. HAVE FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER AND MUCH HIGHER CLOUD COVER FOR LIKELY STRATUS AS WELL. MAY HAVE FOG ELSEWHERE TOO SO MAY HAVE TO EXPAND MENTION OF FOG IN LATER FORECASTS. MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH SURFACE HIGH OVER IL/WI/MI AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. GFS DEVELOPS ODD LOOKING NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIP FROM NORTHEAST IL INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. GUESSING IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP LAKE BREEZE STORMS BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER AND SEEMS LIKE A MAJOR STRETCH. TUESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM MICHIGAN AND RETURN FLOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS FRONT INTO CENTRAL OR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM LOOKS LIKE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH RATHER FAST AND BE EAST OF WISCONSIN BY THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS MAINLY FROM EARLY REMNANT ACTIVITY AND ANY NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST. THURSDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. FRIDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND RETURN FLOW WELL WEST OF WI. ECMWF DOES HAVE SPOTTY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY BUT THAT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT. SATURDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW USUAL TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT ARE PRIMARY PROBLEM. GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH NEXT FRONT AND MUCH WETTER, WHILE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER AND MUCH DRIER. SMALL POPS SEEM WARRANTED. && .AVIATION... UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WI/IL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING QUICKLY. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LIFR VSBYS...PEA SIZE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY DARK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWS DOWN THE LAKE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA BY EARLY SUN EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING. .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02 VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC/13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 122024 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 324 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER MAIN WAVE. THESE FACTORS BRING INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /PWATS/ 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES...HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST WI. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SFC AND 300-310K THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SW WI AS WELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KNOTS...AIDED BY 20+ KNOT SW 850MB WINDS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500J/KG DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO SPC REMOVED SOUTHERN WI FROM THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 500MB VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH PROBABLY A LITTLE THUNDER /NOT DETECTED WITH THE CLOUD TO GROUND NLDN/ POPPING UP ALONG THIS AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...THETA-E ADVECTION...WIND SHEAR...LLJ...AND HIGHER PWATS THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS WEAK CONVECTION...BUT GENERATES MORE WIDESPREAD REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE MAIN VORT ADVECTION AREA A COUPLE HOURS LATER. THIS AREA CAN BE TIMED BY THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGHER WATER VAPOR VALUES IN THE WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH MAX DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN WI. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FROM APPROX MIDNIGHT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...UNTIL THE MAIN VORT MAX CAN APPROACH WI. THE MAIN VORT MAX IS IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF AND REGIONAL CANADIAN MODELS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...GENERATE A BLOB OF QPF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SAT. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE UPPER JET SPEED OR JUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL LAST...SO JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FCST FOR 06Z TO 12Z INSTEAD OF LIKELY. THEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX. MOST OF THE MODELS TIME THE HIGHEST QPF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND 15Z SAT AND KEEP IT HANGING AROUND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS IN FCST...NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP THEM UP TO DEFINITE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG WITH WEAK BULK SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THIS PERIOD FEATURES THE FIRST OF MANY SALVOS ACROSS OUR BOW SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION SEASON IS FAST APPROACHING. THE SFC LOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST BY THIS TIME WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF FOLLOWING IN SHORT ORDER. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS DOMINANTLY CYCLONIC WITH SOME SECONDARY SPOKES ROLLING THROUGH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW IS ENOUGH TO GET DELTA T/S OVER THE LAKE LARGE ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL STUDIES /CIMSS/ MODIS 8 DAY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR AT THEIR SEASONAL PEAK OF 71 TO 73F. H8 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT 12C...BRINGING A DELTA T OF 10. NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT COUPLED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LLV CONVERGENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CONTRAST AND FORCING QUICKLY DIMINISH. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LOW LYING TERRAIN. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL TREK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY AND PLEASANT YET AGAIN. && .AVIATION...AVAILABLE SHORTLY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 120923 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 523 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING A NEARLY CLOUDLESS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PA. 07Z MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN PA...WHERE COOL AIR IN CONTACT WITH RELATIVELY WARMER RIVER/STREAM WATER. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 8-9AM. RETURN FLOW WAA PRODUCING PATCHY CLOUDINESS ACROSS S ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE NORTHERN PA LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH NOTHING ON RADAR NOW...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS THE N TIER LATER TODAY...AS ATMOS WARMS/DESTABILIZES. FURTHER SOUTH...ANOMALOUS PWATS PROGGED BY THE GEFS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA SHOULD ENSURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE STATE. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 14C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S MTNS...TO L/M80S IN THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT...AS PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR RAD COOLING...WITH SFC HIGH OVR THE AREA AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINING. MOST PLACES LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH NORMAL COOL SPOTS OF THE NORTH COULD DIP TO THE U40S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE E COAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. RISING DWPTS...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD RESULT IN SCT AFTN CONVECTION...CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN PA SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE SUN EXPECTED OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY...LIKELY PUSHING TEMPS THERE INTO THE L/M80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE SPREAD AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF DIGGING TROF OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND...ALL OF WHICH SHOW TROF EVOLVING INTO A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...AS SFC LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE AND GEFS PWAT/SOUTHERLY LOW LVL WIND ANOMALIES ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE. 00Z GEFS INDICATING MEAN RAINFALL OF BTWN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS OVER 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE REMAIN QUITE HIGH...SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING ATTM. RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE CUTOFF WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE DECAYING CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE COAST LATER TUESDAY...BUT DAMP CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A PART OF THE DAY BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH RISING HEIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WARY OF ADDITIONAL CANADIAN ENERGY CRESTING THE UPPER MIDWESTERN RIDGE FOR WED-THU WHICH MAY PREVENT WHOLESALE UPPER RIDGING FROM BUILDING EAST OF THE GLAKS REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR WED- THU WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK CLOSED LOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP UNDER THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT INVERSIONS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PA...EXPECT LOCAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO AGAIN FORM TOWARD SUNRISE...AFFECTING IPT AND POSS BFD. ANY FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z. VFR FLYING WILL RESUME AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR BCMG MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY IN MOST AREAS BY SAT NGT. SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS. TUE...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...CERU/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPSR 050936 AFDPSR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 235 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2011 .SYNOPSIS... WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ...WILL RETURN TO MOST OF ARIZONA MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...THEN TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS TEMPORARILY PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY DRY AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS FELLS INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY. 05.00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THIS DRY AIR NICELY...WITH THE MODIFIED KVEF RAOB DEPICTING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF JUST 0.3 INCHES. PHOENIX RAOB AND MODIS DATA BOTH HAD ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. THE 05.00Z GFS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE MOISTURE LEVELS THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF A CLOSE SECOND - THE NAM WAS NOTABLY MORE MOIST. FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST. ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WAS CONTAINED TO THE FAR EASTERN TIP OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TODAY THEN TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY... REMAINING JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PUSH BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH RETREATING/MID-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE REPOSITIONING WESTWARD/A BROAD LOW EJECTING OUT OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA/POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS SONORA AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. IN PARTICULAR...THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARD WITH MOISTURE VALUES HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING /BUT STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/ AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT FOR SUNDAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BEGINNING MONDAY...AND CONTINUING RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES VERY STABLE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. MID-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON DURING THIS PERIOD...LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK UP TO TYPICAL LEVELS RESULTING IN NEAR-AVERAGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS OF ANYTHING THAT COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD /LIKE THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES OR AN INCOMING EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS MEXICO/...THUS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TYPICAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORCING AND COLLISIONS EACH DAY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE DOESN/T GET TOO ENTRENCHED THERE AND WARMER MID-LEVELS INHIBIT MUCH INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION GIVEN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. && .AVIATION... DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRI ACROSS MUCH OF AZ. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A SLOW RETURN TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING A RETURN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. WHILE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL PICK-UP...WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ AVIATION...HIRSCH FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 270426 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1020 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO UTAH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF UTAH. LATEST MODIS PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT TO NEAR ELY NV. THIS IS SAME AXIS ALONG WHICH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS TENDED TO BE LOW CENTROID IN NATURE AND WITH LOW LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION HEIGHTS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE... THIS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY SINCE 0200 UTC AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS DEVELOPED. STILL SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE...PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL UT THROUGH NORTHEAST UT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AND HAVE ALLOWED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 0400 UTC. AREA OF CURRENT ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 HPA JET STREAK AND MODEST MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AT 700 HPA. ANTICIPATE BOTH OF THESE LARGER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER EASTERN UTAH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE LATE EVENING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE ALSO MODIFIED WIND ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE....ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. && .AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS OVER TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL. && .FIRE WEATHER...SOME DRYING HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. MODEST DRYING IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT FROM THE WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THEY WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS AND THE THREAT OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE LOWER. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY WITH A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM FIRE WEATHER...WILENSKY AVIATION...GRAHAM FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 251624 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1024 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BUILD AS A TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS IS ALLOWING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONE INCH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL UTAH THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT WARMING A BIT TODAY AND MAY ALSO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...FEEL THAT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SCATTERED POPS SEEM TO COVER THE THREAT WELL. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT GREATER OVER THE SOUTH...AS CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS INDICATING PW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. WILL SUCH LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS. FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER AIRMASS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...MODIS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING ONE INCH HAVE PUSHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ALSO BRINGING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS CERTAINLY LIMITING INSTABILITY TO THIS POINT AND A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NORTH BELIEVE THAT RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...ALTHOUGH FEEL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL DRY STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIKELY A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY. WITH MOISTURE SURGING NORTH AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE UP QUITE A BIT TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRYING TREND WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED OR SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NEARBY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN AVIATION... FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 162156 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 350 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2011 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE STATE MONDAY AND LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPANDING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH TOWARD UTAH. EARLY AFTERNOON MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN UTAH WITH VALUES AROUND AN INCH EAST OF THE GREEN RIVER RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RETURNING MOISTURE HAS STAYED EAST OF THE CWA WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS STATE ON SUNDAY. IN THE NAM...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST UTAH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAPID RETURN WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. HOWEVER...NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND POSITIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPE STRUGGLE TO SPREAD WEST OF THE WASATCH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...EVEN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RISE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK FORCING AND ORGANIZATION IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT AT ALL. ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. MONDAY...COVERAGE OF POSITIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPE...ALBEIT MODEST...SPREADS STATEWIDE. BEST SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE WILL BE MODEST...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR AN INCH STATEWIDE...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE VALUES MAY APPROACH AN INCH AND A QUARTER. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. HOWEVER...ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAN DOES THE GFS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SUPPRESSION OF 7H TEMPERATURES BELIEVE MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN FOR TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF IN THIS REGARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE WEST AND SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. A DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS REALLY BEGIN TO DEVIATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF PLACES THE GREAT BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO UTAH. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST KEEPING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH GUSTS LIKELY NEAR 30 MPH UNTIL AROUND 03Z. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES. && .FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UTAH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING ANOTHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN TO MANY LOCATIONS. THE NEXT REAL DRY PERIOD APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1000 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7500 FEET FOR UTZ435-440. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 900 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE UTZ439. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM AVIATION...YOUNG FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 161622 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1015 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2011 .SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ALLOWS DEEP MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH. MODIS IMAGERY DEPICTED SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF THREE-QUARTERS OF INCH BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/VIRGA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON....PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER FLOW ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WILL RESULT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER IN FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN AWW FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE REQUIRED. && .FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT TODAY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH. THE AIRMASS OVER THE DISTRICT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH SUNDAY. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7500 FEET FOR UTZ435-440. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ439. WY...NONE. && $$ GRAHAM/KRUSE FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 101037 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 420 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011 .SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND. && .DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE LEAVING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT REMNANT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA HELPING TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECENT WITH NAM INDICATING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN UTAH WILL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 750 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN. FURTHER SOUTH HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGER THREAT WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODEST STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY...AND THE WAVE LIFTING NORTH OUT YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION ON THE MOGOLLON RIM...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE LARGELY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE DRYING TREND BEGINS TO IMPACT EXTREME WESTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST THE STATE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING THE AIRMASS OUT THAN THE NAM...WITH THE ECMWF SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. BY MID WEEK DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED AS WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED. ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION AND EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. MAY BEGIN TO SEE A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LARGELY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS REGARD. && .HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A DOWNWARD TREND IN FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS NEXT WEEK AS THE SNOW PACK CONTINUES TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW VERY FAST AND VERY COLD WELL THROUGH JULY. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED NEAR ANY NORTHERN UTAH WATERWAYS. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EXISTS TODAY AND MONDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST AS A RESULT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL DIRECTLY BE IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM. && .FIRE WEATHER...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. HOWEVER...IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW DRYING TREND AREAWIDE. BY MID-WEEK BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM HYDROLOGY...GRAHAM AVIATION...HOSENFELD FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 032142 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 342 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY STREAM IN FROM ARIZONA. SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH...AND THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL SPREAD CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE UINTAS...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT HAS REACHED 101F THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND THE FIRST WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE CROSSING THE CENTURY MARK. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED WARMING A BIT OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS VALUES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MIDWEEK. OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE WEEK...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A WAVE MOVING UP FROM ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEY DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS...BUT EITHER WAY THIS SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THAT PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A DRYING TREND NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS SLIGHTLY BY DAY 7. && .HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE COTTONWOOD CREEK...SPRING CREEK...LOGAN RIVER...THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE UINTAS...AND THE UPPER WEBER RIVER. RAPID MELTING OF THE REMAINING HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THESE RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH FLOWS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD LEVELS. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED NEAR ANY OF THESE RIVERS AS THEY ARE FLOWING VERY FAST AND VERY COLD. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AS CUMULUS CLOUDS INCH NORTHWARD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY DUE TO STORMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD. && .FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY KEEPING A VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH INTO UTAH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE SURGED NORTH ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING... PARTICULARLY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE IN CENTRAL UTAH AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL. HOWEVER...VERY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE HAVE ISSUES A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 435 BELOW 7000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO ALL OF UTAH ON MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS STORMS WILL BE OF THE WET VARIETY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES UP AS WELL. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR UTZ435. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...TRAPHAGAN AVIATION...YOUNG FIRE WEATHER...GRAHAM FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 031605 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1005 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE ALREADY RUNNING IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75 RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFS INDICATING 1 INCH OR GREATER PWS REACHING FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS A BIT FOR THAT AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...RESULTING IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE REMOVED SHOWER WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAXES STEADY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER...WHILE NORTHERN UTAH WARMS FURTHER WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME WASATCH FRONT LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE MAXES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...LOWERING HEIGHTS A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING TOMORROW...WITH MAXES APPROACHING CLIMO BY TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE COTTONWOOD CREEK...SPRING CREEK...LOGAN RIVER...THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE UINTAS...AND THE UPPER WEBER RIVER. RAPID MELTING OF THE REMAINING HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THESE RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH FLOWS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD LEVELS. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED NEAR ANY OF THESE RIVERS AS THEY ARE FLOWING VERY FAST AND VERY COLD. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. BELIEVE THAT GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL...BUT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE VALLEYS OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH WEST CENTRAL UTAH. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MODIS PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE THAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE UTAH-ARIZONA BORDER. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO WET THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BUT WILL BE ON THE RISE TOMORROW AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO UTAH. BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS SPREADING INTO NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO YIELD PRIMARILY WET STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ TRAPHAGAN/GRAHAM FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 192030 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AREAS WITH THE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING SUNSET. HRRR DEVELOPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SFC CONVERGENCE AREA AND POSSIBLE AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN NE IOWA AND SPREADS IT INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY EVENING. RUC SNDGS AND LAPS SHOW SOME STRETCHING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH CAPE INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN CWA...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET A WEAK UPDRAFT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN UP A FUNNEL CLOUD. WILL WATCH CLOSELY. SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. ANY STORMS WOULD RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT MON MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS. CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AT LEAST RACINE TO PORT WASHINGTON. IT IS DEPICTABLE FROM ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS. WEB CAMS OVER PARTS OF MILWAUKEE ALSO SHOW VERY LOW CLOUDS...THESE CLOUDS COULD POTENTIALLY DROP TO THE SFC WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AROUND SUNSET AND CREATE DENSE FOG OVER THE CITY. IN ADDITION...ANY FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE COULD ADVECT ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS WELL. .SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHERE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH AND WEST CWA WITH FORCING DUE TO CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF INCREASING 850MB WINDS FOCUSING MORE TO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NORTH...THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY PER 850-700MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FORECASTS. LIFT AIDED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF JET MAX FOCUSED OVER SRN MN/NERN IA AT 06Z TUESDAY THAT SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...DEVELOPS A DEEP WARM LAYER BETWEEN 900MB AND 600MB THAT CAPS EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST...SO CHANCE POPS THERE FOR NOW. HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED IF SFC FRONT/850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. MCS COULD RUMBLE THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING. INVERSION WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE...SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ADDITION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES. COOLER LAKESHORE LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH WESTERN LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMES AS APPROACHING UPPER LOW COOLS MID LAYERS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO 40-50 KTS WITH SPEED MAX MOVING UP ERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW. EXTRA DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COMES WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA AS ALL MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING THROUGH SRN WI TUESDAY EVENING. IF MCS DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A LIKELY POP FOR THE DAY...THOUGH .WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. INSTABILITY WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WISCONSIN...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF SRN WI AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS FROM E CENTRAL MN TO EITHER NW WI OR UPPER PENINSULA DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION. EITHER WAY LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH CAPE FOR PRECIPITATION MODE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. IN SPITE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMTH UP TO THE LAKE SHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE FAR WEST WHERE COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND AND UNDER SURFACE LOW WILL REACH FIRST. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. IN SPITE OF FASTER PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW VS GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN DROP A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH WISCONSIN THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW STILL CLIPPING EASTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE SLIDING THRU SO HAVE TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CWA. DRY WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE SUNDAY...MAINLY EARLY BUT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FEED OF DRY AIR AND DRY LOOK TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL NOT BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION. 850 TEMPS ON THE ECMWF FALL TO +5 TO +6C THURSDAY...BUT CANADIAN ONLY DIPS TO +9C AT 12Z FRIDAY. A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL USE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. AT LEAST IFR FOG WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOWER CIGS. DENSE FOG OVER LAKE MI NEAR MILWAUKEE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD INLAND AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING...SO MITCHELL FIELD COULD HAVE DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A SHORTWAVE AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE SPREADS INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AREA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IT IN TAFS YET. && .MARINE...DENSE FOG TO ABOUT 10 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTY TO RACINE COUNTY...DEDUCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION AND MILWAUKEE HARBOR WEBCAMS. DENSE FOG ADVY WILL BE EXPANDED UP TO SHEBOYGAN...ALTHOUGH SHEBOYGAN WEBCAMS ARE CLEAR FOR NOW...AND ADVY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 9 PM. I DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR HOW LONG THIS FOG WILL STICK AROUND. THE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG ANYWHERE ON THE LAKE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FLOWING INTO THE AREA. LATEST COAST WATCH AND MODIS IMAGERY HAS LAKE MI SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...CONFIRMED BY SRN LK MI BUOY. STRONG WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUE. CONVECTION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...09/REM VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 190829 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COMPACT SHORT WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST WI COMBINING WITH HIGH PWAT TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE WEST OF CWA. KLNR RECEIVED 0.44 INCHES IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. SHORT WAVE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS MRNG SO EXPC AT LEAST SCT WEAKER TSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCD WITH WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL WI...HOWEVER WDLY SCT WEAKER CONVECTION MAY YET FORM IN THIS AREA. CORFIDI VECTORS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THRU MID-MRNG BUT WL NEED TO WATCH WEST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY SAUK CO/. ENHANCED FORCING WITH WAVE SPREADS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MRNG...HWVR LINGERING MUCAPES INCREASES TO OVER 2K J IN WRN CWA THIS AFTN. WL KEEP SMALL POP LINGERING THIS AFTN FOR POTENTIAL AIR MASS THUNDER. EXPC QUIET EVE BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. BEST CONVERGENCE REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA...HOWEVER WL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY AND SPREAD SCHC FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION GRADIENT SPREADS INTO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO BE NEAR OR ACROSS WI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING UP QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INCREASING 850 LOW LEVEL JET DRIVES MCS DEVELOPMENT...NAM AND GFS SHOWING THIS TO OUR SOUTH WHILE CANADIAN/ECMWF AND HPC TEND TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN FOCUS IN SRN/CENTRAL WI. THE CORE OF THE 850 JET TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND THIS PLACEMENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO SRN WI. SKINNY CAPE IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER LEVEL CIN REALLY TAKES HOLD. ELEVATED CAPE...ABOVE 600 MILLIBARS REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE GFS. BAND OF DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEPICTED BY MODELS. WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WHERE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY GET CLOSE AND BETTER PROXIMITY TO IOWA MODERATE RISK AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER 9C AND GFS SURFACE BASED LI/S APPROACH -10. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM NEARLY STACKED LOW LIFTS FROM ERN NEB TO SW MN. WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND CWA IS MOSTLY IN VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 850 JET LEANS MORE TOWARDS CWA AND DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO WESTERN CWA. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 0-6KM SHEAR PEAKS AT NEAR 40 KNOTS AT 18Z THEN DROPS A BIT BY 00Z. 250 MILLIBAR WIND MAX ROUNDS TROUGH AND RIDES ABOVE THE 850 MB 35 KNOT JET MAX. BUFKIT SHOWING CAPE VALUES REACHING 2500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -8. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MONDAY BUT STILL OVER 7C. MORNING CONVECTION LIKELY FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO 850 WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/850 COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE WARM FRONT SETS UP IN THE NORTHERN CWA PER THE NAM WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION COULD END UP SUPPRESSING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH...MORE LIKE THE NAM POSITION. AS SPC POINTED OUT SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS AREA FOR STORMS EXHIBITING TORNADOGENESIS...SO PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND RENEWED CONVECTION INITIATES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER LOW WILL PLOD ALONG THIS PERIOD AND KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTER TUESDAY NIGTH DRY SLOT. 00Z CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE ON UPPER LOW POSITION BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD STILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ALIVE THURSDAY...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE DEEP THROES OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM WILL GO DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHOUGH PATTERN LOOKS MORE BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC...NO BIG BUILDUP OF A UPPER RIDGE. 00Z ECMWF EXTENDING LIGHT QPF INTO THE SW CWA FRIDAY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE THOUGH FIRST TIME SHOWING THIS AND MAIN FOCUS LOOKS SOUTHWEST OF HERE SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WL LINGER OVER WRN CWA FOR A TIME THIS MRNG BEFORE THINNING. MVFR CLOUDS WL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE EAST...BUT MAY AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME ALONG WITH A FEW TSTORMS. OTRW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WL AFFECT SRN WI THIS MRNG...THINNING BY AFTN. MAY BE A FEW TSTORMS THIS AFTN DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLD. THREAT FOR CONVECTION INCREASES LATE TNGT AND MON MRNG AS WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE SPREADS INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AREA. && .MARINE...LATEST COAST WATCH AND MODIS IMAGERY HAS LAKE MI SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...CONFIRMED BY SRN LK MI BUOY. STRONG WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. CONVECTIONS CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 112127 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 327 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011 ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES... ...SMOKE PLUME BILLOWING NEAR THE WALLOW FIRE AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREAS THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 462 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z FOR COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z CONTINUED TO SHOW BACKED FLOW AT CLAYTON WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. STRONG SINGLE CELL THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED NEAR MAXWELL HAS SINCE BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AS IT CROSSES INTO UNION COUNTY. WE EXPECT THIS CELL TO BE LONG TRACKED AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS ALL THE WAY INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL UTILIZE THE REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH UNTIL 01Z. ELSEWHERE...THE OTHER TOP STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE WALLOW AND HORSESHOE TWO FIRES. MODIS AND GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SHOW PYRO CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE FIRE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED ALOFT WITH SMOKE PLUMES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA. HYSPLIT 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SWATH OF SMOKE WILL INFILTRATE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH VSBYS LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE 2 TO 4SM RANGE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS EXPECTED ALONG I-40 TO GRANTS AND GALLUP. WE WILL CONTINUE ALL AIR QUALITY ALERTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH SHARPENS UP OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 30 TO 35 KTS OF FLOW WHICH WOULD LIKELY SEND SIGNIFICANT SMOKE INTO THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...WES EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PLEASE REVIEW THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE PERSISTENTLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO AID IN SMOKE TRANSPORT FROM THE WALLOW AND HORSESHOE TWO FIRES INTO THE CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE SIMPLY REMAINS VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE 7 TO 10 DAY UPCOMING PERIOD. KW && .AVIATION... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NE QUADRANT OF THE CWFA... MAINLY OVER ERN COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z/SUN. ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER HAZARD FOCUSES ON SMOKE PLUME. IT IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CATRON COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST KABQ/KSAF TAFS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED. BASED ON HISTORIC EVENTS...WILL COVER WITH 2SM AND 3SM FU RESPECTIVELY FROM 00-04Z/SUN. EVENING CREW WILL MONITOR/ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES WITH TIME. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. DPORTER && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM WILL BE A THING OF THE PAST AS POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY CURRY/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. CONVECTION IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LIKELY DEPARTING BY 02Z/SUN. APPEARS WETTING FOOTPRINT IS LIKELY FAIRLY SMALL WITH A FEW ANVIL LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. THIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCAL GRASS FIRES. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR SUNDAY AS SINGLE DIGIT...POSSIBLY LOWER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPAND FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP INTO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN ZONES AS WELL AS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HAVE OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MET GUIDANCE BASED ON LATEST PERFORMANCE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND INTO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS ACTIVITY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM SANTA ROSA TO TUCUMCARI...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THREE HOURS MAY BE QUESTIONABLE ATTM. WILL UPGRADE NMZ107 TO A WARNING BUT LEAVE NMZ108 A WATCH DUE TO A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE. DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...ONE MAY FORESEE UPGRADING DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH A HIGH HAINES AND EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS ONE TO THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WAS TEMPTED TO POST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE HIGHER SPEEDS AT 700MB. FOR COMPARISION...700MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS ON SUN WHILE ONLY 20KTS PER THE NAM40 FOR MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH HAINES COUPLED WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION. WINDS WILL START TO RETARD FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE UPR LEVEL WESTERLIES SUBSIDE COMPLIMENTS OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL IMPACT THE ERN PLAINS FOR TUES/ TUES NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIMITED RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY RANGE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHICH MAY INCREASE WINDS... ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MAY NEED TO INCREASE SPEEDS ACCORDINGLY IN THE GRIDS IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 49 88 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 36 82 36 80 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 43 86 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 38 85 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 37 82 37 79 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 41 87 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 42 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 48 90 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 35 76 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 51 85 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 81 46 79 / 5 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 36 71 41 70 / 5 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 76 39 75 / 5 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 41 84 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 47 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 49 92 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 52 87 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 89 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 93 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 94 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 93 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 52 96 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 52 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 57 96 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 55 93 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 90 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 61 93 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 59 83 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 52 88 56 87 / 20 0 0 0 RATON........................... 50 92 51 90 / 20 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 48 93 51 91 / 20 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 51 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 55 95 59 96 / 20 0 0 0 ROY............................. 54 92 57 91 / 20 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 61 100 63 98 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 60 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 59 101 62 100 / 5 0 5 0 CLOVIS.......................... 60 99 65 99 / 5 0 5 0 PORTALES........................ 61 100 65 101 / 5 0 5 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 61 99 66 100 / 5 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 63 103 65 103 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 57 98 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 57 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ108. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107. && $$ 17/46  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 060659 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 259 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP PENNSYLVANIA IN A DRY NW FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE BLOCK SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE VICINITY OF COLUMBIA AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...WHERE RAIN FELL LAST EVENING. OTHERWISE...A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT IN PROGRESS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVR THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES. H5 RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS 850 T WARMS TO +14C TO +16C BY 00Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VARIABLE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVR THE STATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME RISK OF AN MCS AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS BULK OF MDL DATA PICKING UP ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY UPPER RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLE SITES ON CENTRAL PA AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING. THE WARM UP WILL BE ON BY TUESDAY...AS SFC HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF PA...ALLOWING WARMER RETURN SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. 850 TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L/M80S...ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. LEFT POPS IN THE LOW RANGE...BUT DID CUT AREA BACK TO EXCLUDE THE SE SOME. BLOCKING PATTERN OVR THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND NEWRD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT A TERRAIN INDUCED TSRA WED AFTN. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVR MOST OF THE AREA. GEFS ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 20C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM U80S MT NS AND 90-95F IN THE VALLEYS. DID EDGE TEMPS UP SOME... MAINLY AT NIGHT. ANOTHER HOT DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHC OF PM TSRA AS HGTS FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS. RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONGST MDL GUIDANCE THRU SAT...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A DYING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THRU PA FRIDAY. WENT WITH A DRY FCST AFTER 00Z SAT. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR FOG TOWARD 12Z. KLNS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE AT TEMPORARY IFR FOG CONDITIONS SINCE THEY HAD RAIN EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR RETURNS AFT 13Z AREAWIDE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...PRIMARILY VFR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CHANCE OF AN AFTN OR EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 020841 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 341 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011 UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM FORECAST EMPHASIS ON THREAT OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WI CURRENTLY ON EDGE OF WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 600MB FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS. WITH UPSTREAM PWAT APPROACHING 1 INCH OVER ERN IA...WIDELY SCT -SHRA/-TSRA HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER NE IA AND MOVING SE AFFECTING SMALL PARTS OF SRN CWA. FWF WEAKENS THIS MRNG AS LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 85H JET REFOCUSES TO THE WEST. EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY SHOWING UP AS SCT CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS NRN IA INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVER WI AGAIN LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DESPITE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST...DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO SRN WI TODAY WITH PWATS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR 1.5 INCHES. UPSTREAM NE SHORT WAVE/MESOSCALE INDUCED EDDY EXPCD TO MOVE ENE ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL THIS AFTN. THINKING TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH PIVOTING LLJ AND OTHER WITH THIS FEATURE. SRN WI CAUGHT IN BETWEEN BUT ENOUGH DIFFERENTIAL VORT ADVEC AND WEAK ENHANCED FORCING FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...THAT WL NEED TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR T MOST AREAS INTO THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT DIMINISHING TREND FROM THE WEST AS WARM MID LEVEL CAPPING SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. DRIER ELY FLOW SHOULD INITIALLY MINIMIZE PRECIP THREAT IN THE EAST THIS MRNG. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS MOST AREAS. CLEAR MODIS IMAGE FROM WED AFTN SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LINGERING DRIER AIR AT THE SFC AND LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD KEEP FOG IN CHECK TNGT. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A WARM AND CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. A LITTLE SPREAD CONTINUES IN HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS 24-25C AND THE NAM/ECMWF 26-27C. CONTINUED TO GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE RESULTING IN HIGHS AROUND 90. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THAT MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A BIT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND NEAR THE LAKE. COULD NOT IGNORE THIS...SO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THERE. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WELL AFTER DAYTIME HEATING. EVEN SO...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 35 KNOTS POINTING INTO SRN WI ALONG WITH PLENTY OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/K SUGGESTS THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT NOT VERY STRONG THOUGH...AND WARMER AIR WILL LINGER...WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S SUGGESTING LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. MODELS KEEP THE FRONT NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM OVERALL PICTURE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WITH SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUICKEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BY MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THIS BY TUESDAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL TIMING...LINGERED LOW POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS MOSTLY VFR FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING TAF SITE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS THRU THE EVE...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN IN DEEPER MOISTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T DURING SPECIFIC PDS TODAY INTO THIS EVE SO WL CONT TO USE VCNTY REMARK. && .MARINE...BACKDOOR FRONT SWITCHED WINDS OVER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WL REMAIN ONSHORE TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SSE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WL CAUSE WINDS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS ON FRI. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV/07 TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 310838 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011 UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MN WL CARRY COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS WI TODAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONT KNOCKING ON WRN WI DOOR AT 12Z AND MOVING ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH MID-AFTN AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WRN ONT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ONGOING AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS MRNG DUE TO PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET. BLUE RIVER PROFILER SHOWING WINDS OF 50KTS IN LOWEST GATES...AROUND 1KM. DEEP CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH OVER 500 J OF CIN. NEVER THE LESS...WEAK ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC OVER FAR EASTERN IA INTO SW WI. POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW OVER WRN KS/ERN CO AREA EXPCD TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN BY LATE MRNG AND ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL WI IN THE EARLY AFTN. FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WL COINCIDE WITH PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND MID MRNG AND IN THE EARLY AFTN IN THE SOUTHEAST. HENCE...EXPC SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND POSSIBLY EXPAND TO LINEAR MCS OVER SE WI IN THE EARLY AFTN. DUE TO ENHANCED FORCING FROM NEARBY WAVE...WL CONT LIKELY WORDING IN THE NORTH AND EAST FOR TODAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO OVER 60KTS EARLY IN THE AFTN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 0-3KM VGP INCREASES TO AROUND 0.3. CAPE EXPCD TO INCREASE TO 2-3K JOULES BY EARLY AFTN...SO FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE MAIN WEATHER THREATS...BUT ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. STRONG MIXING EXPCD TO DEVELOP BY MID MRNG...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 35KTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO DMSH LATER IN THE MRNG AS CLOUDS THICKEN...SO VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH WIND ADVY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. DRY AIR SURGES IN BEHIND FRONT DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE AND SETTLES OVER THE REGION TNGT WITH DECREASING WINDS. .WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVERALL...SO TAPERED BACK POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALSO NOW KEEPING THE NORTHEAST DRY. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SW CWA. EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE COOLER...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. A BIT TRICKY WITH THE WARM FRONT GETTING CLOSER. SOME MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FAR SW INTO THE LOW 80S...AND WENT WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS THERE PER THIS POSSIBILITY. KEPT SOME POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE LAST. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG OVER THE LAKE AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE FOR THU/THU NIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD INLAND NEAR THE LAKE AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION INCREASES. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A WARM AND CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. A LITTLE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS 24-25C AND THE ECMWF A VERY WARM 27-28C. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE RESULTING IN UPPER 80S. BROUGHT WARM AIR ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE WITH WINDS SOUTHERLY...OR JUST WEST OF SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FORCING WEAK AND MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH. WENT DRY WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE...AS A WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEPS A FLATTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW THOUGH...RESULTING IN A FEW DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH. KEPT A FEW ROUNDS OF LOW POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD PER THE GFS...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF A DRY WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN VERIFY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING A VERSION OF RIDGING IN THE REGION BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION...SCT CONVECTION EXPCD TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS SFC OCCLUSION AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACH. CONVECTION EXPCD TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD INTO SE WI IN THE EARLY AFTN. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. VSBY/CIGS WL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR SHOULD ONE OF THESE STORMS MAKE A DIRECT HIT AT A TAF SITE. DRIER AIR AND VEERING WINDS TO THE WEST WILL END THE CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY MID AFTN...AND BY 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR TNGT. WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS ONCE SFC MIXING COMMENCES BY MID-MRNG. && .MARINE...CLEAR MODIS IMAGE FROM MONDAY EARLY AFTN SHOWED SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S...WHILE MID LAKE TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S DUE TO OVERTURNING. TIGHTENING PRESS GRADIENT THIS MORNING AND SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN STRONG MIXING EARLY THIS MRNG. HENCE WL BUMP UP START OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY SEVERAL HOURS...AND RUN INTO THE EVE. FEW GUSTS NEAR THE SHORE MAY REACH 30-35 KNOTS LATER THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN. EXPC SCT CONVECTION TO AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS BTWN 18Z AND 22Z. FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 33 KTS AND LARGE HAIL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV/07 TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 231958 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 300 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE 500MB LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT WILL DROP DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA /CWA/ FROM 05Z TO 08Z. EXPECTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...THEN THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY A BIT GUSTY...THEN THEY WILL DIE DOWN A BIT AND VEER NORTHEAST BY 12Z TUE...THEN VEER EASTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 23MPH TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING. THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...NOT DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN WI UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON. THE 10C LINE ACTUALLY STAYS FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM NOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT DOWN THE LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WI SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 50S. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STAY MUCH COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS...IN THE LOW 50S. LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE /SST/ IMAGE FROM SUN AFTERNOON SHOWED MID LAKE SST OF AROUND 45F...AND TEMPS ALONG THE SHORELINE IN THE LOW 50S. THE SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY SHOWED AN AIR TEMPERATURE OF 47F THIS AFTERNOON. .SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AT 18Z WED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM AND NEW ECMWF NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOCATION. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ON THURSDAY. LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...STILL SPREADS INTO SRN WI LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 3H JET ALSO SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI ON WED. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTION WHICH LINGERS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVER SRN WI WED NGT INTO THU. WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS FOR FORCING AND HIGH COLUMN RH FOR WED INTO WED NGT. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH MID-WEEK SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE. GEM MORE IN LINE WITH SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. GEM/ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL IL AT 00Z/FRI. HENCE WL EXPAND CHANCE POPS OVER MORE OF SOUTHEAST WI ON THU AND BEEF UP POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS SHOW A DECREASING TREND DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THU. UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE WAVE EAST OF SRN WI. BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN THU NGT INTO FRI. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR BUT LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE AGREEMENT ON HAVING WEAK WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY REGION ON SAT. ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. LARGE DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SUN AND MON. GFS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH LONG WAVE TROFFING UPSTEAM OVER PAC NW. MEANWHILE...ECMWF SHOWING FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER SOLUTION. WITH AGREEMENT FROM 144HR UKMT...WL TREND TOWARD COOLER ECMWF AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. THIS INDICATES LESS CREDIBILITY IN GFS 5DAY MEANS...WHICH STILL HAS WARMER LOOK FOR GTLAKES AND ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...WITH THE END OF DIURNAL HEATING. THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WI TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT NORTH JUST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN QUICKLY VEER NORTHEAST BY 12Z TUE MORNING...THEN EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT...THEN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF GUSTS IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING. CLOUDS MAY BECOME MVFR ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .MARINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AROUND DUSK WITH THE END OF THE DAYTIME MIXING...THEREFORE WILL KEEP END TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OF 00Z/24. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND WIND SHIFT MAY RUSH DOWN THE LAKE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THEY WILL ON LAND. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AND A LITTLE GUSTY...SHORT-LIVED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THEN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET WITH THE FAVORABLE NORTH NORTHEAST FETCH ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. WAVES MAY REACH 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN NSH ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A 1000-1005 MB LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST BETWEEN THIS LOW AND 1020-1025 MB HIGH OVER ONTARIO TO PRODUCE BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVES BUILD INTO 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OPPORTUNITY. && .CONFIDENCE... .TONIGHT...HIGH. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM. .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MEDIUM. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MEDIUM. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY LOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVY LMZ643>646 TIL 00Z/24. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KKEY 201449 AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1049 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2011 .DISCUSSION... THE KEY WEST MORNING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A VERY UNSTABLE VERTICAL PROFILE WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY. MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW UP NEAR 73-74F AT MOST PLATFORMS. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED AS SURFACE BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED...RESULTING IN MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/TURBULENCE AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD FLUXES OF HEAT/MOISTURE FROM THE SURROUNDING WARM OCEAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AVERAGE 80-82F ACCORDING TO A RECENT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE COURTESY OF THE SHORT-TERM PREDICTION RESEARCH AND TRANSITION CENTER. DATA FROM THE SAME VENUE REVEAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 82-84F OVER MOST OF FLORIDA BAY...HAWK CHANNEL...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE VALUES ARE ACTUALLY JUST ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN MAY. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR CUMULUS CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS DRY AIR ALOFT...AND IN PARTICULAR...DRY AIR WITHIN THE 925-700MB LAYER. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C EXTEND DOWNWARD AS LOW AS 900MB...OR ABOUT 3400FT ABOVE GROUND...NOT TOO FAR ABOVE CUMULUS CLOUD BASES. AS A CONSEQUENCE...YOUNG CUMULUS CLOUDS AND THEIR UPDRAFTS WILL FIGHT A MOSTLY LOSING BATTLE. THOSE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF GROWING INTO SHOWERS MOST PROBABLY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONE. INDEED...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS EVIDENT AT PRESENT PER DOPPLER RADAR SCANS AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD LINES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...DESPITE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOWER- TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER FROM SOUTHEAST AT 10KT TO EAST. CURRENT FORECASTS HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL...AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .AVIATION... SHORT-LIVED...30 MINUTES OR LESS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS...ONLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ADVERTISED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 7 KFT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1875...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 76 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 20TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 136 YEARS LATER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 87 78 87 78 / 10 10 10 10 MARATHON 89 78 89 78 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS DATA COLLECTION.......FUENTES VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 130907 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 507 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011 .DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THAT IS HEADING EAST AND THIS WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW WILL COME ASHORE AND MOVE EAST AND WILL FORM A CLOSED 500 MB LOW. THIS LOW WILL HEAD EAST AND BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE AREA ON FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT MORNING. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TODAY WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG IT. MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THEN RETURN FRI NIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE SAME THING AS WELL. FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND KEPT POPS AS SCATTERED AS THE NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE WORKS THROUGH. KGRB 00Z SOUNDING IS PRETTY DRY AND THIS DRY AIR HAS TO BE OVERCOME FIRST BEFORE PCPN WILL HIT THE GROUND. CHANCE POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. CHANGE I MADE TONIGHT WAS TO REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AS FRONT GETS HUNG UP A BIT. LOOKS DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...SO REMOVED DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK MARGINAL AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GET DOWN TO -6C OR SO. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 0C TO 2C...SO THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE CLOUDS ONLY TONIGHT. LOOKS DRY THEN FOR THU THROUGH FRI BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES IN. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. WENT A BIT WARMER FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY AS DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER EARLIER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP MORE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. STILL IS TRICKY FOR PCPN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT LATEST 00Z ECMWF LOOKS WARMER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DID AND IS MUCH CLOSER TO GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH ARE DOWN TO -4C OVER THE WEST HALF SAT. THINK PCPN WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE WEST HALF ON SAT WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN. FOR THE EAST HALF...THERE WILL BE SNOW WITH RAIN MIXED IN AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL CUT DOWN A BIT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT COULD STILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 0.50 INCH TO 1.00 INCH QPF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING OVER THE CWA. WITH A 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO WITH WET HEAVY SNOW...THIS WOULD BE A 5-10 INCH SNOWFALL WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS A BIT HARDER IN THE HWO PRODUCT NOW. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM. ECMWF DEPARTS THE SYSTEM A BIT QUICKER SAT NIGHT AND MOVED ITS EXIT UP QUICKER. WRAPAROUND THEN COMES IN FOR SUN MORNING AND DEPARTS QUICKLY FOR SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... PER KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE...LLWS IS ONGOING (35KT AT 500FT AGL). IT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY. -SHRA ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NE MN...AND SCT -SHRA/SPRINKLES SHOULD ARRIVE AT KCMX AFTER SUNRISE AND AT KSAW LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL VFR WHERE PCPN IS OCCURRING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME PCPN AREA REACHES KCMX/KSAW. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT EARLY AFTN AT KCMX AND MID/LATE AFTN AT KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOWER MVFR CIGS WELL TO THE NW IN MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPING NRLY FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW THESE CLOUDS TO MAKE A RUN S INTO UPPER MI AT SOME POINT DURING THE NIGHT. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... A FEW STRONGER GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING UP TO 30KTS AS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR DROPS S FROM CANADA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT...EXPECT GALES TO AT LEAST 35KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALES ON SAT NIGHT WITH THE LOW MOVING TOWARDS JAMES BAY. && .HYDROLOGY /FOR THE 4AM ISSUANCE/... DRY WEATHER YESTERDAY AND LIMITED REMAINING SNOW PACK HAS CAUSED MOST RIVERS TO LEVEL OFF OR GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODIS SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS SNOW REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PORKIES...KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS. THIS LINGERING SNOW PACK...COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HAS CAUSED THE TRAP ROCK RIVER TO RISE AGAIN AND NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. CURRENTLY TRENDS HAVE IT REACHING THAT STAGE THIS MORNING...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE. EXPECT THE REST OF THE RIVERS WILL GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW THIS WEEKEND...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL RISES IN THE AREA RIVERS. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS IN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RISING WATERS AND EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVERBANKS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KLUB 112015 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 315 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 .SHORT TERM... MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS 12Z UPA ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALSO HELP COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MIN TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE GLIDES OVER THE REGION. THIS QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LEE SURFACE TROF TO REESTABLISH A POSITION ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TROF AND THE RESULTANT INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...SPEEDS SHOULD MAX OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER THANKS TO THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED AMPLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. JORDAN && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UA RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL ENSUE BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS /AOA 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/ BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. IF THE FRONT BEHAVES AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM SOLUTION...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR A LIMITED PERIOD OF TIME AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER-HAND STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY THU MORNING AS THE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM SOLUTION HINTS AT PRECIP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM AS THE NAM IS THE ONLY SOLUTION SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY. THE NEXT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WITH FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND SOUNDINGS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NERN ZONES. SYNOPTIC LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AND THUS INCREASING CLOUDS APPEARS MORE PROBABLE ATTM. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD AND BE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR RATHER BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY /AOA 30 KTS PER MOS GUIDANCE/ AND THUS DUE TO RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY...CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THUS INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREAFTER...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO A SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE TRANSPORT OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE COMMENCES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PER THE ECMWF AND GFS...AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...THUS DRIVING DOWN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIP IS DEPICTED EAST OF THE REGION NEAREST THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS. && .FIRE WEATHER... GOES 3.9 MICRON AND MODIS/POES 3.7 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY ONE FIRE START SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE KENT/SCURRY COUNTY LINE. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THEY ARE NOT SHOWING ANY LARGE FLARE-UPS ON THE SWENSON/STONEWALL AND KING COUNTY FIRE. DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO HELP WITH ANY CONTINUED FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL TOMORROW FOR MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT SOUTH WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE COMPUTER MODELS FOR TOMORROW. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND PROMOTE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. COMPUTER MODELS STRUGGLE WITH A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE RETREATING IT NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ONE SOLUTION HOWEVER DRIVES THE FROPA ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LESSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE A POINT IN TIME WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT /EXCEPT AOA 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. THE BEST DAY IN REGARDS TO WIND SPEEDS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH NEAREST THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT CWA-WIDE...WITH 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH /VERSUS 15 TO 20 MPH ON WED/. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 38 78 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 10 10 TULIA 36 80 43 78 41 / 0 0 10 10 10 PLAINVIEW 39 80 44 82 44 / 0 0 0 10 10 LEVELLAND 39 80 46 84 46 / 0 0 0 10 10 LUBBOCK 44 81 48 85 47 / 0 0 0 10 10 DENVER CITY 38 80 46 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 BROWNFIELD 38 80 46 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 CHILDRESS 44 82 48 85 50 / 0 0 10 10 10 SPUR 44 82 48 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 10 ASPERMONT 44 83 49 87 52 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044. && $$ 14/29  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KGGW 102058 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 258 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2011 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS SPILLING OVER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE... ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SNOW MELT ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM OVERFLOWING RIVERS ALSO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN LOW LYING AREAS. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY JOIN IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE TO FORM A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. BIG THING WORKING AGAINST THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS A LACK OF A THICK LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY NOT BE ABLE TO FIRM UP DURING THE DAY TIME. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS INITIALLY FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 6PM IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH VERTICAL CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND CREATE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TUESDAY... WITH THE COLD FRONTS PASSAGE... TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SEMI-STABLE CONDITIONS AND A NEWLY FORMING WEAK RIDGE WILL HELP TO KEEP THIS DAY DRY AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SNOW PACK ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY WHICH IS FAR MORE EXTENSIVE THAN NOHRSC MODELS SHOW IS ANTICIPATED TO ENCOURAGE A RAPID SNOW MELT IN THE REGION DURING THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD INCUR FURTHER FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GAH .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS SOME ISSUES WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE MODEL SPECTRUM OF TEMPERATURES IS VERY WIDE FROM THE GFS TO THE EC WHICH ARE ON OPPOSITE ENDS. ALSO THE TIMING OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR GOOD ON THURSDAY FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION AS A FRONT CROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST AT BRINGING THE FEATURE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND EC IS SLOWER. KEPT WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE TIMING WILL BE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE VALUE. AFTER THAT CLIMO WAS THE BEST CALL WITH THE MODELS ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONLY PROBLEM NOTICED WITH THAT IS PROBABLY IN TEMPERATURES WHERE A WARM UP IS SHOWN WITH MORE CLIMO VALUES. FOR NOW WITH THE WIDE RANGE OF FORECAST OPTIONS IT/S THE BEST CALL. PROTON && .AVIATION... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG VALLEYS AND LOW LYING REGIONS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR OR NEAR IFR BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNUP. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF TO 5 TO 10 KTS. GAH && .HYDROLOGY... WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOW MELT. CONSEQUENTLY... THE SPRING THAWING AND RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND PROBABLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. IT WILL BE AT LEAST 2 WEEKS BEFORE FLOOD ISSUES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE PERMANENTLY...THOUGH RIVER LEVELS MAY FLUCTUATE SOME. A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY AS BIG MUDDY CREEK AND LAKE CREEK WERE RUNNING OUT OF THEIR BANKS CAUSING SOME NEARBY ROADS TO BE INUNDATED. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN PHILLIPS AND MUCH OF VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... FOR FLOODING ALONG THE FOLLOWING STREAMS... BRAZIL CREEK... BUFFALO CREEK... WILLOW CREEK... BEAVER CREEK AND LARB CREEK... AS WELL AS ALONG THE MILK RIVER. ANTELOPE CREEK ALSO CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR BY EARLY THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE. A MAIN STEM FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TAMPICO... GLASGOW... SACO ... AND NASHUA FORECAST POINTS ON THE MILK RIVER. TAMPICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING. GLASGOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. NASHUA REACHED FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASES AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. CREEKS WERE RUNNING HIGH IN NORTHERN MCCONE AND RICHLAND COUNTIES BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY WITH ICE STILL IMPACTING FLOWS ON STREAMS ACROSS THE COUNTY. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 090830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011 FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. .TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SHORTLY... .SHORT TERM...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. BRISK SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 19C 925MB TEMPERATURES ON THE GFS...WITH LOWER 20S ON THE NAM...SUPPORTED THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SHOULD ALSO SHIFT INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT HUMID DAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PEAK HEATING AND INCREASING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP WEAKEN CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH WEAKENING CAP TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE EASTWARD MOVING PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KNOTS...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 MODERATE RISK WITH HATCHED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE LOOKS GOOD...AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ALL IN ALL...A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED... .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MONDAY...AS SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALSO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. DRIER AIR THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...MOIST ELY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS OR LWR FOR MUCH OF THE PD. MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO BUMP UP CIGS TO VFR THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON SE WINDS...COULD SEE CIGS REMAINING LWR UNTIL STRONG WMFNT MOVES THRU LATER TNGT AND WNDS VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF STRATUS NORTH OF WMFNT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MS VLY. ALSO CONCERN FOR DENSE ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING IN EAST DUE TO INCREASING WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER COOLER LAKE MI WATERS. WL LIKELY REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH 12Z TAFS. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM SEVERAL DAYS REVEALED SEA SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 3.5C. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO A MORE SE DIRECTION...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS LAKE MI. HENCE WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF ADVECTION FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE TODAY...POSSIBLY TURNING DENSE TNGT AS SFC DEWPTS APPROACH 50. LOW LEVEL INVERSION WL PREVENT STRONGER E WNDS FROM MIXING TO LAKE SFC UNTIL WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MRNG. BETTER MIXING OVER THE SHORE AREAS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25 KTS ON SUN AND SUN EVE. TIGHTENING PRES GRAD AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH WL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS SUN NGT INTO MON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 290922 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 422 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 .DISCUSSION... SUMMARY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 1-5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASED POPS ON THURSDAY AND PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FOR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS. SLOW WARMING TREND THIS WEEK ON TRACK...LATEST 29.00Z GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER WITH THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DISCUSSIONS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE PROBABLY SOUNDING A LITTLE LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT SNOW ONCE AGAIN BLOSSOMED EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE FRINGE OF THE HIGH IN AREAS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AIDED BY 800-600MB CONVERGENCE AND A LITTLE KICK FROM SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEE SNOW THIS MORNING...AT MOST FLURRIES IN FAR SOUTHWEST MN...BUT PORTIONS OF MN MIGHT ACTUALLY SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS AIR MASS HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE...THE DAILY 24-HR TEMPERATURE CHANGE HAS LOOKED REMARKABLY SIMILAR OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH TIME. THE KMPX SOUNDINGS TAKEN HERE IN CHANHASSEN SINCE FRIDAY EVENING HAVE REFLECTED NEARLY IDENTICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES: 0.10...0.11...0.12...0.12...0.12...0.12...0.10. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS 250MB JET JUST TO OUR SOUTH BUCKLES AND WEST COASTING RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOULD HELP TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO MN AND WI. TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH WARMTH AND RIDGING TO OUR WEST...SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE FIRST PUSH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WESTERN MN. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER ENOUGH FOR UPPER 30S AND 40S BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS MN AND WI. MOST OF THE LIQUID...LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH...APPEARS TO FALL AS RAIN. EVEN WHEN THICKNESS VALUES FALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CRYSTALS BELOW 850-925MB THURSDAY EVENING...CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FROM FALLING TOO QUICKLY AND THE BEST CHANCE OF A RETURN TO SNOW WOULD BE BETWEEN 06-12Z FRIDAY. SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS EVENT. 29.00Z GUIDANCE DOES SHOW TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...ONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE OTHER FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HARD TO CLEAR THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE FRIDAY EVENING. EXTENDED...THE 28.12Z GUIDANCE SHOWED MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 29.00Z RUNS ARE ACTUALLY STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT IN THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END...BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. NOT THAT THE DETAILS REALLY MEAN MUCH AT THIS POINT...BUT THE 29.00Z GFS DEVELOPS A POTENT LOW AND TRACKS IT ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND GRADUALLY LOSES PACE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE LACK OF RUN- TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN LOOKING AT DP/DT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ALL WE CAN SAY FOR CERTAIN IS THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG SPRING CYCLONE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER INTO IOWA DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION...WHERE CLOUDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS COULD LOWER UNDER 5000 FEET AGL...IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MN NEAR KRWF TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AGL. .MSP...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... MODIS SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SHOW LITTLE SNOW COVER IN SOUTHERN MN...SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEW ULM TO PIPESTONE...WHERE THE EFFECT OF LAST WEEKS SNOWFALL IS STILL QUITE EVIDENT. LATEST NOHRSC 48-HR CHANGE IN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT SHOWS BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.20 INCH LOSS SINCE SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF MN AND WI...DESPITE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES - THE LATE MARCH SUNSHINE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THIS SLOW MELT. STILL EXPECT AREAS NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY TO SEE THE MELT ACCELERATE FOR THE SECOND OF THIS WEEK GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE CURRENT FLOODING OR POTENTIAL SECOND CREST IN APRIL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ CLF/MPG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 270842 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 442 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE...COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EARLY TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE IMPORTANT COASTAL STORM IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NORTHERN EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE GRAZING SOUTHERN PA. MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF ARND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVR SOMERSET CO SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE. WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING...AREAS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE NO ACCUM. 3KM HRRR INDICATES ANY SNOW ACROSS THE S TIER WILL END BY ARND 9 AM. SATL DERIVED PWATS SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR MASS OVR THE GRT LKS POISED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA LATER TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE E COAST. THUS...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTH BY AFTN. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -12C WILL SUPPORT AFTN MAXES FROM JUST THE U20S NW MTNS TO THE L/M 40S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH MINS ARND 15F BLW NORMAL. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE CLEAR SKIES...LGT WINDS AND DRY AIR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SNOW COVERED N MTNS /MODIS BAND 7 IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENT OF SNOW COVER BEAUTIFULLY/...TO ARND 20F IN THE SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY...OTHER THAN A SUBTLE BACKING OF THE BLYR FLOW...WHICH COULD DRAW A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU INTO THE NW MTNS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH NW WINDS A BIT GUSTIER THAN TODAY...WHICH COULD HAVE FIRE WX IMPLICATIONS OVR THE SOUTH. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN RIDING ACROSS THE NATION. A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE FIRST SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH SREF AND GEFS DATA SUGGEST A SFC LOW TRACK WELL SOUTH OF PA WITH A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL LIKELY CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AN EAST COAST STORM. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONGST MDLS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AMT OF PHASING ALONG THE E COAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY ARND 30 PCT LATE NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...READINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT BLW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT THRU SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF PA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...WITH ANY PRECIP FALLING IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PA BETWEEN 09-12Z. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BY 15Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL RTES. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT THRU WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...EXCEPT POSS OCNL MVFR AT KBFD. THU...MVFR POSS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 250809 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 309 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD PERTAIN TO SMALL LAKE EFFECT THREAT. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT LESS THAN TWO TENTHS INCH HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIES TO THE NORTH AS DEPICTED BY 00Z GRB SOUNDING. GRB RADAR SHOWING WEAK CIRCULATION OVER LAKE MI NE OF KMTW PRODUCING SCT DBZ OVER 20. BOTH NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW 1000-850MB FLOW VEERING ONSHORE THIS MRNG AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY. MODIS SEA SFC TEMP IMAGE FROM THU EVE HAS LAKE TEMP AROUND 2-3C. HENCE DELTA-T INCREASES TO 13-15 DEGREES LATER THIS MRNG AS BRIEF SURGE OF HIGHER RH SLIDES SWWD INTO SE WI. LAKE INDUCED CAPE INCREASES TO 150J. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT THIS AFTN AND EVE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE. HENCE WL BUMP UP TO LOW POPS ALONG LAKESHORE FOR TODAY...WITH LINGERING FLURRIES FOR TNGT. EXPC MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER THIS MRNG IN SOUTH AS STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM UPPER JET PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTN SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN THESE CLOUDS. CAN NOT GO TOO LOW WITH TNGTS TEMPS DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LAKE CLOUDS SPREADING WWD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A BIT BETTER MOISTURE 3-4K FEET WHILE THE GFS IS LESS MOIST AT THAT LAYER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH PERSISTENT ENE FLOW. 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE FROM U.P. TO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL ESPECIALLY WITH DRY COLUMN. DELTA T AND TRAJECTORIES BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. DELTA T REACHES 15-16C WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS 5-6K FEET. THE NAM AND GFS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR SHOWING LIGHT QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING THE LAKESHORE AREAS 6Z-18Z SUNDAY. WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE LAKESIDE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GO DRY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY THOUGH NAM SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN LOOSENING THE GRIP OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHING. GFS BREAKS DOWN THIS RIDGE PRETTY QUICK AND SHOOTS A VORT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MAIN ENERGY ALSO QUICKER TO APPROACH. VORT PATTERN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEPING THINGS BACK IN THE PLAINS A BIT LONGER. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND PREFERRED WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. 00Z ECMWF HAS AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE AND ACTUALLY HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE GFS. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN SOLUTION HAS THE HIGH DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NO PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SCALING BACK ON THE CONSALL POPS WHICH HAD POPS CWA WIDE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE DOMINANT WITH DECENT CONSENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WILL GO WITH THE DRY AND CLEANER QPF LOOK OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. && .AVIATION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD THIN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY AFFECT ERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LAYER RH THINS AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY BUT INCREASES AGAIN LATER TNGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 190836 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY... WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE HUN CWFA THIS MORNING...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN RIVER. REGIONAL MODIS/GOES SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DO NOT INDICATE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE FRONT...BUT THAT CHANGES NORTH OF I-40. MOST PCPN IS CONFINED EVEN FURTHER N ACROSS KY...THOUGH A FEW REMOTE SHRA HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND IN NRN GA/SERN TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE HUN CWFA TODAY... RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT NOT TERRIBLY WET DAY. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE /PWATS ARND 1 INCH/...SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHRA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED 15-20 POPS AREAWIDE...BUT EXPECT TODAY TO BE FAR FROM A WASHOUT. AND DESPITE THE BROAD POSTFRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW...LITTLE IF ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...RESULTING IN CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY/. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NWD TONIGHT AS SWLY FLOW RESUMES ALOFT... BUT AGAIN NEGLIGIBLE LIFT EXISTS...LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY BUT MILD FCST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...SUCH AS IT WILL BE...IS LIKELY TO COME SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UPPER FORCING AND INCREASED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEDGE/BACKDOOR FRONT. FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND MOS POPS ARE STILL BELOW 10 PCT...SO WILL STICK WITH ONLY 20 POPS ATTM. THE WEDGE FRONT MAY INTRODUCE A FAIRLY LARGE W-TO-E TEMP GRADIENT AS STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR NW AL...AND E/SE FLOW IMPINGES FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 WEST...NEAR 70 EAST...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO SUBTLE. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...PLACING THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER ROBUST S/SW FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES. MILD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND HIGHS MONDAY MAY RIVAL THOSE SEEN ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID-WEEK...WHEN THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE W COAST ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO THE N...SO THE THREATS FOR HVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE WX DO NOT LOOK HIGH ATTM. BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING CONSENSUS ON A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE WED-THURS TIMEFRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AND NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...RESULTING IN COOLER IF NOT COLDER CONDITIONS. WHILE PREFRONTAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...POSTFRONTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...UNCHANGED FROM 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...ARRIVING JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 75 56 76 55 79 / 20 10 20 10 10 SHOALS 74 54 78 56 80 / 20 10 20 10 10 VINEMONT 72 54 72 53 76 / 20 10 20 10 10 FAYETTEVILLE 71 52 72 53 75 / 20 10 20 10 10 ALBERTVILLE 73 54 73 52 77 / 20 10 20 10 10 FORT PAYNE 73 54 71 50 76 / 20 10 20 10 10 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...BCC AVIATION...12  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 130803 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2011 .SYNOPSIS... TWO COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WELCOME TO DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME. WV STLT LOOP SHOWS COMPACT CYC CIRCULATION MOVG INTO WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING..WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VLY STRADDLING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW HAS PUSHED EWD ACRS PA WITH LLVL CAA AND RELATIVELY MOIST OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORY SPREADING BKN-OVC STRATOCU SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VLY REGION. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME LGT -SHSN SKIRTING THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY -FZDZ IS PSBL GIVEN LACK OF ICE INTRODUCTION ALOFT AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS BTWN -6 TO -8C. THE NW MTNS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO AN OCNL BRIEF -SHSN TDY AS SECONDARY COLD FNT/SFC TROUGH DROPS SWD FM SRN ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCT AT BEST AS THE BEST LL CAA AND OVER-LAKE FLOW IS COUNTERED BY S/W RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNG H5 SYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF LAKE ERIE IS FROZEN PER HI RES MODIS STLT IMAGE FROM 3/8. THE PERSISTENT LL CAA AND DENSE STRATOCU CVRG WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S OVR THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND NRN MTNS..WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGS BLW SEASONAL AVGS. MEANWHILE GUSTY WNWLY DOWNSLOPE SHOULD AFFORD A FEW MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS ESP INTO THE LWR SUSQ VLY WHERE AFTN READINGS WILL CLIMB TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO /MID 40S CENTRAL MTNS TO NEAR 50F IN THE SE/. THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE CYC FLOW OVR THE GRT LKS REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PD. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMT OF CLOUDS OVER THE N/W COUNTIES..BEFORE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN UPSTREAM LEADS TO MORE SUNSHINE TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL VERY SEASONABLE FOR MID MARCH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FAIRLY ZONAL BUT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL DOMINATE CHANCES FOR PCPN...OPPOSED TO MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROFFING/SURFACE PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK. A LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...PROVIDING ESSENTIALLY NIL POPS AND DECREASING CLOUDS. GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH ASSCD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY INTO THROUGH PA AND INTO NEW ENG BY 12Z THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND NOW THE GFS SPREAD A CHILLY RAIN OF 1 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH/12 HR INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LEFTOVER DRY...AND SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS COULD GREATLY IMPACT FCST TEMPS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD /BY 10F OR MORE/ SHOULD THE PRECIP SHIELD SPREAD FURTHER NORTH /PER THE EC AND SVRL WETTER GEFS MEMBERS/ - AND COOL TO THE CHILLY WET BULB TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS TRICKY/SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE...AND EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL...TO PASS AND BE EAST OF PA BY EARLY THURSDAY...RETURNING FAIR WX TO THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS COULD AVERAGE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A TASTE OF SPRING. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TWO COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM THE GRT LKS INTO THE NE STATES THIS PD. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTN. MOIST CYC WNWLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO BFD/JST WITH AN OCNL -SHSN AT BFD. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER SHALLOW MSTR OVR THE MTNS THUS SOME PATCHY FZDZ WILL BE PSBL EARLY THIS MRNG BUT NOT WORTH MENTION IN 06Z TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROB FOR IFR CIGS INVOF BFD. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL E/SE OF THE MTNS WITH SCT-BKN CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE. CANT RULE OUT A TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT AOO/UNV/IPT. WNW SFC WNDS 8-15KTS GUSTING BTWN 20-25KTS. HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE MONDAY WITH RETURN TO VFR FLYING THRU TUE AFTN. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE...CHC OF RAIN/LOW CIGS LATE...MAINLY SOUTH. WED...CHC OF RAIN/LOW CIGS. THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... SUNBURY IS NOW RIGHT AT FS/24FT AND WILL CANCEL ONCE THE NEXT OB COMES IN BLW FS. REMAINING MAIN STEM PTS STILL IN FLOOD ARE FORECAST TO FALL BLW FS THIS AFTN...WITH MARIETTA THE LAST PT FALLING BLW FS BY LATE TONIGHT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 220306 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 906 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011 .UPDATE... EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... MODIS SST COMPOSITE SHOWS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS IN THE GULF JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THESE COOLER WATERS WITH A MOIST/WARM AIRMASS RIDING OVER IT. SEA FOG SEEMS TO BE IMPACTING AREAS FROM GAL IS...GAL BAY AND AREAS EASTWARD ALONG THE TX/LA GULF COAST. KGLS AND KLBX CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWER VSBY AND LOW CLOUD DECKS BUT NO DENSE FOG. WILL STILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG INLAND. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SE TX. AT 03Z...FRONT WAS BASICALLY LOCATED FROM KCLL TO KOCH. FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN IN SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THE 12Z WRF AND THE 00Z/22 NAM RUN SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL PUSH. BOTH SHOW THE FRONT GETTING TO KIAH BY 11-12Z AND IT BARELY REACHING KHOU/KSGR BY 15Z. FRONT LOOS TO STALL FROM A LIBERTY TO HOUSTON TO VICTORIA LINE TUE MORNING. MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS INCREASE MIN TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. EVEN THEN... MIN TEMPS MAY STILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAT WHAT COULD OCCUR. FRONT PUSHES NORTH TOMORROW WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/ UPDATE... UPDATED MARINE HAZARD GRIDS. DISCUSSION... SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT JAMAICA BEACH...SCHOLES FIELD IS AT 3 MILES AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES. FEEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SO WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVIOSRY FOR GALVESTON BAY AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. NEW MARINE ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/ DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PSX AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION BENEATH A STRONG CAP...BUT FEEL WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN COULD GET SQUEEZED OUT OVERNIGHT. SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL WORK INLAND AND EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE IMPACTED AT GLS/LBX AND MAYBE AS FAR INLAND AS HOU. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON FEB 21 2011/ DISCUSSION... THE LATEST COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD SE TX THIS AFTN WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO OUR NRN BORDERS LATER TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS LOCATION BEFORE IT MOVES BACK NORTH LATE TUES. HOWEVER WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE RETURN/DEV- ELOPMENT OF FOG/SEA FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT... THEN LASTING INTO EARLY TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH THURS. AT THAT TIME...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH CAP STRENGTH... MODELS DO LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE S/WV AS WELL AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS. AT ANY RATE... THE CHC POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. 41 MARINE... WINDS AT THE BUOYS ARE STEADILY DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. WILL KEEP SCEC GOING UNTIL 00Z FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS WITH SEAS STILL 6 FT AT BUOY 020. COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TX WILL REACH THE UPPER TX COAST AND STALL LATER TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH DENSE FOG LIKELY. THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH SEA FOG LIKELY AGAIN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. INCREASING WINDS COULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS THU/THU NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 68 58 73 61 / 10 20 20 20 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 60 71 58 74 61 / 20 20 20 20 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 60 67 59 67 60 / 20 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...39  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 190928 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 328 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011 .DISCUSSION... 310 PM CST MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DEAL WITH PRECIP AMOUNT AND PRECIP TYPE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY SOME ON TRACK OF LOW...BUT STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WILL ADD TO FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOSING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WITH MID DECK ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALL HELP TO DELAY/PREVENT DECOUPLING TONIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF RANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT DECIDED TO GO SOMEWHAT ON THE WARM SIDE...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS TEMPS. THIS WEEKEND...DIGGING TROF EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GRADUALLY SATURATES ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH PRECIP BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...IMPORTANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOW TRACK CONTINUE BUT MODELS DID SHIFT BACK SOUTH FROM YESTERDAYS TRACK. GFS/NAM/ECWMF COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ILLINOIS WHILE SREF TAKES A WORST CASE TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED ON CURRENT NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ANTICIPATED POSITION OF WARM FRONT...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE EXCEPTION/MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW WILL BE THE NORTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP COLD LAYER BELOW ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT WILL REFREEZE FALLING PRECIP. PER THIS SOLUTION...SLEET WOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN. SHOULD SREF SOLUTION PAN OUT...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN WHICH WOULD FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RIGHT NOW...SREF SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALSO A BIG CONCERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS QUITE LIKELY THAT A SWATH OF HALF INCH COULD FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH. EVEN IF THE HIGHER 1+ INCH VALUES FALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THIS COULD STILL TRIGGER PROBLEMS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE FOX...DES PLAINES...AND ROCK RIVER VALLEYS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH ACTION STAGE OR FLOOD STAGE FROM SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH SATURDAY AND ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BECOME RUNOFF ATOP THE SATURATED/FROZEN GROUND. NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER BUT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A GRADUAL WARMUP BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BMD && .HYDROLOGY... 500 AM CST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN INCREASING FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS. THE COMBINATION OF THE RELATIVELY GRADUAL MELT AND LOW INITIAL FLOW CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT IMMEDIATE PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL AS MILDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED STREAM FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREAK UP OF ANY REMAINING ICE ON AREA RIVERS. THE ICE BREAKUP CAN POSSIBLY RESULT IN LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING. ALSO...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT COULD RESULT IN OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LATER NEXT WEEK YET ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE DECENT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THESE EPISODES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. KREIN/KJB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * DECEASING NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A LARGE HIGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO FLORIDA TONIGHT THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT 9 TO 12 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 9 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLOOK FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS IFR CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECASTS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE VFR FORECASTS. //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY...IFR/LIFR. SLEET AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...IFR. CHANCE OF SNOW. TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...MVFR. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. && .MARINE... 317 AM CST MAIN MARINE FORECAST ISSUES ARE DEALING WITH ENDING OF CURRENT GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEASTERLY GALES MAINLY ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS EAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STILL A FEW OBS INDICATING GUSTS OF GALE FORCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 09Z/3 AM CST...SO HAVE EXTENDED GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 15Z/9 AM CST DURING WHICH TIME WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR IL NEARSHORE WATERS AT 4 AM CST. WILL BE EXTENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY HOWEVER FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF GARY INDIANA HOWEVER...AS WAVES OF 4 FT OR HIGHER EXPECTED TO ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THERE AFTER LONG PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST FETCH. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY INDICATES LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER IN IL/IND NEARSHORE WATERS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE LATER TODAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO IL/IND AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PASSES... MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST GALES UP TO 40 KTS OR SO ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES ESPECIALLY ALONG IL NEARSHORE AREAS AS EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW...AND AGAIN MONDAY AS NORTHEAST/NORTH FLOW STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY STRETCH INTO TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER STORM WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006...3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ868 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL NOON SATURDAY. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 132129 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2011 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IMPRESSIVELY MILD THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO WARM...WHILE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DOING FAIRLY WELL. ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER DECK POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH CAA. WITH TEMPS STARTING OFF IN THE 40S...WINDS STAYING UP ALL NIGHT...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATER ON...LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. WENT WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW IS INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT...AND WHETHER OR NOT GUSTS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ISSUE IS WHAT LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 KFT. GFS HAS MORE OF A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REALIZE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SFC. NAM AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARRANT A BIT MORE CONCERN. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW PACK WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER NEAR THE SFC TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP INHIBIT REALLY GOOD LAPSE RATES. IN THE END...OPTED TO NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY...AS NOT CONVINCED ON THE BEST MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. STILL THINK GUSTS COULD GET UP TO 40 MPH THOUGH...THE BEST CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO COLD ADVECT ON MONDAY...BUT SKIES WILL TURN SUNNY AND THINK ENOUGH MILDER AIR WILL LINGER EARLY TO SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE MID LEVEL BECOMES MORE ZONAL AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES REACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE STILL DEEP SNOW COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS EARLY SETTING UP A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS RATHER LIGHT TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN WEST OF MADISON WHERE 950 MB WINDS INCREASE TO TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS INTO TUESDAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT A THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER BY TUESDAY EVENING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION BELOW 950 MB...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WEST COAST REGION OF THE U.S. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AT 850 MB BUT THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER SURFACE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH FROM EAST TEXAS AS RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES TO THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY REACHES MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH SATURATION IN THE LOWEST 4 THSD FT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. NAM SOUNDINGS THEN DECREASE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND LOWERS...AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE PLUME MOVES EAST AS THE 850 MB WINDS DECREASES AND BECOME MORE WEST. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND BOTH EJECT AN SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...REACHING MINNESOTA OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER. BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DEVELOP A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA THURSDAY THEN MOVE IT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF MORE TOWARDS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH BOTH TAKING IT NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH MODELS BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...BUT 12Z ECMWF HAS INCREASED THE AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN. THEREFORE ANY RIVER RISES WOULD BE MAINLY FROM MELTING SNOW COVER. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. GFS SHOWS SATURATED LOWER LEVELS THURSDAY BELOW 5 THSD FT BUT MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. ECMWF IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND IS PREFERRED. THEREFORE WILL DELAY COLD AIR ADVECTION UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME WE NEED TO DECIDE ON A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT ON GFS VS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON ECMWF...THE LOW IS NEAR OR EXITING THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION AND THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LOW. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM GFS TAKES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS MOVES THIS OFF RATHER QUICKLY EAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER ECMWF IS SLOWER...STILL BUILDING THE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY GFS BEGINS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AS...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER ECMWF ONLY WEAKENS THE HIGH SOMEWHAT OVER WISCONSIN...WHILE THE MAIN LOW IS STILL ORGANIZING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT SOES HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. && .AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME BKN MVFR POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND SFC TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM OBS THOUGH...AS THE MAV SUGGESTS CIGS STAY VFR...THOUGH GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BREAK UP MONDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE AND STILL THINK THESE GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG JUST ABOVE THE SFC...AND WILL KEEP LLVL SHEAR GOING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW GOOD MIXING WILL BE IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KFT. GFS LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN GUSTS A BIT LOWER THAN IN TAFS. LEANED TOWARD HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL REFLECTED IN NAM AND SREF SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. MORE LIKELY TO GET GALE GUSTS TOWARD OPEN WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A PRETTY GOOD BET THROUGH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. DECREASED ICE COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CURRENT TIME FRAME...DUE TO WEB CAMS AND LATEST MODIS IMAGERY. WITH MILD TEMPS AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW...DROPPED ICE COVERAGE ALL THE WAY TO ZERO FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THUS EXPECTING WAVES TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET WITH STRONG WINDS...THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE NATURE OF WINDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...07/DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 100922 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 322 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN OVER REGION THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. RIDGE HAS CALMED WINDS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN FORECAST AREA...SO WIND CHILLS NOT BEING REPORTED BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT THE OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 5 MPH WIND WILL MEET OR EXCEED CRITERIA. PATCH OF THIN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MN WILL CLEAR SRN WISCONSIN AROUND DAWN SO STILL ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING AFTER SUNRISE. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY BEHIND RIDGE AXIS WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH COLD START...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH LATER START TO STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM WESTERN CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL TEMPER TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT...BUT WITH SLOWER WAA LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO COLDER MAV GUIDANCE. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SRN WI ON FRIDAY. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...BUT DECENT SATURATION. THINK MOST PLACES WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW FLAKES...BUT THINK CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. KEPT SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE EAST IN THE EVENING AS THE WAVES EXITS. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE NRN CWA. PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS...THOUGH CANADIAN AND ECMWF SUGGEST DRY FORECAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOMING WESTERLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP PULL UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND CANADIAN 2 METER TEMPS SUGGESTING LOW 40S BY SUNDAY...BUT NOT BITING ON THESE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE LATEST SNOW COVER ANALYSIS SHOWS SNOW ON THE GROUND AS FAR SOUTH AS A THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EAST INTO KY AND TN. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE KY/TN BORDER TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS SRN WI FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND TYPICALLY MILD WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S. DECENT WAA THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SATURATION CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MORE LIKELY RESULT IN A DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. WITH COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH TEMPS THEN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST DRIZZLE OR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS/CIRRUS THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING CIRRUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LOWERING TO AC OVERNIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z FRIDAY AT KMKE...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. && .MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF TROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO 20-25 KNOT WINDS. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING ICE COVER BEYOND THE 5 NAUTICAL MILE MARK SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT...AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED TO THE NORTH...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PREDICATED ON WINDS ONLY AS WAVES WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH ICE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. CURRENT GUST FORECASTS AT 20 KNOTS...WHICH MEANS A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH/EXCEED 22 KNOTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047- 051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...NONE. && $$ FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV/07 TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM/09  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 092129 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS WITHIN ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS THE SFC DECOUPLES FROM UPPER LEVELS AND MIXING CEASES. WINDS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE WILL BE SLOWER TO DECOUPLE...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE WEST WITH THE DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE -10F AND LOWER TEMPS FOR MINS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE APPROX FROM FOND DU LAC TO JUNEAU TO WATERTOWN TO BURLINGTON. COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ WHERE THE WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME COLD SPOTS IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVY AT THIS TIME. ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...WITH THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEGINNING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE REST OF THE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL BEGIN THU AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. A FEW HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TEENS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NW FLOW ALOFT BUT SWLY SFC WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE ONSET THOUGH...THU NT WILL BE COLD DUE TO LGT WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR FRI...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SFC TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BUT VERY WEAK LIFT SO KEPT POPS LOW. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE SFC TROUGH FRI NT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH COOLING TEMPS. SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ON SAT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA CANADA TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS THAT SAME AREA. GOOD 850 MB WARM ADVECTION TO BRING 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WARM ADVECTION IS WEAKER ALOFT. MODELS STILL HANGING ONTO DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SO KEPT OUT MENTION OF PCPN BUT IF WAA INCREASES THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED. WARM ADVECTION TO BOOST 850 MB TEMPS FROM -8C ON FRI TO +2-4C ON SAT WITH SFC HIGH TEMPS REACHING AT LEAST THE MID 30S ON SAT. .LONG TERM...FCST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GRTLKS ON SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER SRN WI. HIGH TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 30S. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NT AND MON AM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION. POLAR HIGH OVER CENTRAL USA TO THEN SHIFT EWD WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA CANADA DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN/USA GREAT PLAINS ON WED. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM ADVECTION MAY GENERATE SOME VERY LGT PCPN. && .AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS THE SFC DECOUPLES FROM UPPER LEVELS AND MIXING CEASES. WINDS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE WILL BE SLOWER TO DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THU AFTERNOON AND BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. && .MARINE...WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY EASE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RELAXES. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA UNTIL AT LEAST FRI AFTERNOON. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS ICE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE NEARSHORE FROM WINTRHOP HARBOR UP TO NORTH POINT LIGHT...AND ABOUT HALF THE WIDTH FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHHEBOYGAN...AND EVEN UP TO MANITOWOC. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ058>060-064>066-070>072. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ047-051-052. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...20 VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 082113 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 313 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING ACROSS MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO KANSAS...IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS WI. GRADIENT WINDS WERE CONSISTENTLY IN THE 7 TO 13 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL EASE UP MUCH TONIGHT...BUT WILL EASE A BIT IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 35KT RANGE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A STEEP INVERSION SO THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL NOT BE REALIZED IN THE GUSTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR AVIATION. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 925MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE 925MB TEMPS WILL LEVEL OUT THIS EVENING...AND THEN COLD ADVECT AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE STEEP INVERSION AND LOW DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER DARK WITH THE CLEAR SKIES. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE FCST MINS...WHICH ARE 0 TO -11 BELOW ZERO...WITH LONE ROCK THE COLD SPOT AND MKE/PORT WASHINGTON THE WARM SPOT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT WINDS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES LESS THAN -20F IN ALL OF THE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON WED...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 03Z THROUGH 18Z. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW....AFFECTING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CLEARLY SHOW THE PARCHED LOOK TO SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS ALSO SHOWING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THINK THE COLDER 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS LOOK BETTER THAN THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARDS THE FORMER. THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LOWER LEVELS MOISTENING UP A BIT...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS ALL SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE...THIS ONE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE LAST....SWINGING THROUGH LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE...WEAK 700 OMEGA NOTED. THE UPPER JET CORE IS DISPLACED PRETTY FAR NORTH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH OF THE FAVORED DIVERGENCE REGIONS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE PER CONSENSUS POPS. SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IMPRESSIVE 850 MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. GFS SATURATES MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF. 0.01 PAINTED BY THE GFS IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS QPF IN THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. IN FACT 850 WINDS PROGGS WELL OVER 50 KNOTS RIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY MID LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY LOOK OF THE ECMWF/OLD GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLES...KEEPING PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA. SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF EASTERN UP PROGGD TO SHIFT EAST WITH ECMWF SHOWING STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY 00Z MONDAY 850 TEMPS FROMECMWF ARE 4-6C WHILE GFS SHOWING -5 TO -7C WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW. STEERED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE MILDER ECMWF WHICH APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS ARE GRAVITATING TOWARDS. EVEN THE MORE CYCLONIC LOOKING GFS IS NOT ROBUST ON THE QPF. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ECMWF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A VERY SHARP 850 TROUGH. AGAIN...SUFRACE LOW IS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME UPPER JET ACTION...THOUGH BY AND LARGE LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. SURFACE/850 RIDGE SLIDES IN PRETTY QUICK LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. WARMING MORE PRONOUNCED ON GFS THAN ECMWF. PRECIP STAYS WEST OF THE CWA. MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL/PERHAPS JUST RAIN...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS 1000-2000 FT WNW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWED ICE COVER FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING OVER THE NSH WATERS THROUGH WED EVENING...WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE WIND GUSTS. FEEL THAT THE SITUATION IS TOO MARGINAL AT THE TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN THROUGH WED EVENING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 050930 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARDS LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME AS SATELLITE SHOWS JUST A LITTLE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME INCREASE IN STRATUS MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LNR...MSN AND MKE. PREFER MAV MOS OVER NAM MOS FOR CEILING HEIGHTS. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT BUT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING TOWARD MORNING BUT NAM LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE RATHER LOW. .SHORT TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SINCE THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR A POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO CROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS SUNDAY MORNING TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/. SNOW TOTAL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. AS THE STRONGEST WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST SUN AFTERNOON...DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL DOWN INTO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE WEAKER UPPER WAVES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EAST. DELTA TS WILL NOT BE VERY LARGE...MAINLY LESS THAN 13C DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY FAVORS THIS SCENARIO OVER THE GFS. MODELS KEEP TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF NO LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IDEA IN MIND. .LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETS UP ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. COLD AIR WILL SURGE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN WI MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND -16C OVER THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY THU MORNING...AND BY THU NIGHT...A CORE OF -20C 925MB TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WI. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS MUCH WARMER...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE THIS PROLONGED COLD AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A STRONG WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER. && .AVIATION... NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARDS LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME AS SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREFER MAV MOS OVER NAM MOS FOR CEILING HEIGHTS. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT BUT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING TOWARD MORNING BUT NAM LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE RATHER LOW. THUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR IN FOG WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LIGHT SNOW LATE. && .MARINE...WEST WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN REGION. FALSE COLOR MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WHICH SHOWS ICE/SNOW VS WATER INDICATES ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS THE VISIBLE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. SOME OF THIS COULD BE SLUSHY ICE OR POSSIBLY MORE OF A TURBIDITY DIFFERENCE WITH THE PRIOR BRISK WINDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...06/HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 310931 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 331 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM FORECAST EMPHASIS ON SNOW AND AMOUNTS FROM INCOMING ROUND ONE OF SNOW. PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET RESULTS IN SATURATION OF LOW LAYERS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH BEST PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT TONIGHT WITH PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI WL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF WESTERN CWA THIS MRNG... EVENTUALLY SATURATING DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTN. -SN REPORTS LINE UP WELL WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SFC. THESE LWR CPD WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREAD SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY. COBB AND THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FAVOR SNOW LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 18 TO 1 FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL THROUGH 12Z/TUE. LAYER FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES INTO WESTERN CWA THIS EVE WHICH FALLS IN MODERATE OMEGA IN FAVORABLE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. THIS ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A TIME THIS EVENING COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS. NEXT SHIFT WL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHETHER WINTER STORM WARNING WOULD BE MORE APPROPRIATE. ALSO BEEFED UP AMOUNTS SEVERAL INCHES IN EAST DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTRIBUTION. DELTA-T INCREASES TO 17 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH. LAKE INDUCED CAPE NEAR 300 J BY LATE TNGT AT KSBM. WL NEED TO WATCH LAKESHORE AND NEXT TIER INLAND AS WELL FOR BEEFIER HEADLINES FOR LATE TNGT INTO TUE. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS JET PULLS OFF AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. INCREASING SHORT WAVE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WL ALSO DMSH FORCING AWAY FROM LAKE TUE MRNG AS WEAKENING 500MB PORT VORT SHIFTS EWD. WL POSTPONE WINTER WX ADVY FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY UNTIL LATER THIS MRNG. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKING FAIRLY WEAK ATTM. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COULD SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FROM THE SYNOPTIC EVENT...PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE MORNING. ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY...AT LEAST FOR INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM ANY INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THEN A BIT OF A LULL...BUT VERY SMALL AT THAT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE/700 TROUGH SHIFT EAST WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNWARD MOTION. QYUICK SHOT OF 500 RIDGING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MAJOR STORM SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN BEFORE THE BIG STORM MOVES IN WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT TRENDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN THE LAKE AND AIR AT AROUND 5000 FEET FORECASTED TO BE AS COLD AS 19C...WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE INSTABILTY. FETCH LOOKS VERY GOOD AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER SHOWS FAVORABLE VALUES AS WELL. NAM AND WRF20 BOTH SHOW A NE/SW ORIENTED BAND EXTENDING INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THIS SPECIFIC LAKE EFFECT EVENT DEPENDING ON WHERE BAND SETS UP AND HOW THE BAND WOULD ADD TO THE TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR EVENT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH BLIZZARD POTENTIAL LOOKING VERY HIGH FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST CWA. CANT RULE OUT MODELS LOCKED ONTO STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. NAM AND GFS BOTH EXPLODE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SE WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW 850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS PEAKING SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT HAVE IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 700-500 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI...THUS STRONG SLOPING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE VERY STRONG...700-300 MILLIBAR VALUES OVER 50 UNITS AT MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SUBTLE WEAKENING IN VALUES BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPICALLY...280-290K PLOTS SHOW MIXING RATIOS PUSHING 3 G/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. INGREDIENTS PLOTS FROM BOTH NAM SHOW BEST PVU...OVERLAP OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SATURATED EQUIVELANT POTENTIAL VORTICITY...TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT. EVENING SHIFT FORECASTER ADJUSTED SNOW RATIOS AFTER ASSESSING ROEBBER TECHNIQUE AND WILL USE THIS AND APPLY AN AVERAGE QPF TO COME UP WITH TOTALS...IN MANY PERIODS...HPC IS A NICE BLEND...BUT WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE EAST DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NORTHEAST 50-60 KNOT 850 MILLIBAR JET CORE...WITH 45-55 KNOTS AT 925 MILLIBARS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD WATCH ANOTHER SET OF COUNTIES WEST...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL ADD GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND 3-5/3-6 TYPE SNOWS. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND WITH...ONE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...COMBINATION OF INCREASING LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WL RESULT IN IFR OR LWR CIGS AND VSBYS SPREADING ACROSS SRN WI TODAY...LASTING THRU TNGT. && .MARINE...SOUTHERN LAKESHORE SITES FLIRTING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO SLACKEN OFF A BIT THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING SMALL CRAFT FOR NOW. STILL EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN PLAINS. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY TNGT INTO TUE WITH GALE WATCH FROM TUE AFTN INTO WED AFTN. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH STORM FORCE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...SO GALE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO STORM WATCH IN LATER SHIFTS. AVERAGE LAKE TEMP 2-3C. HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY SHOWS MINIMAL NEARSHORE ICE FROM MKE NWD...WITH A BIT MORE ICE COVERAGE SOUTH OF MKE IN THE SHALLOWER WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ064>066-068>072. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062-063-067-068. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-059-060-064-065-069-070. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ066-071-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062-063-067. LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 310937 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 337 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011 ...MULTIFACETED...DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON REGION... .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).... THE HEADLINER OF WINTER EVENTS DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FIRST WE GET TO DEAL WITH AN OPENING ACT TONIGHT... LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WESTERN KS/PANHANDLE REGION. AS THIS SHORTWAVE RIDES SW FLOW INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOOK FOR SNOW TO BREAK OUT AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY AS A RESULT OF 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LACK OF WELL DEFINED FOCUS MAKES QPF FORECAST TONIGHT TRICKY...HOWEVER MODELS DO SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. SOUTHERN CWA WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER TEMP PROFILE AND WITH MODELS FREQUENTLY UNDERESTIMATING MAGNITUDE OF WARMING IN STRONG WAA REGIMES HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE CHC OF SLEET WITH THE SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR SLEET BOTH ARGUE FOR LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS SOUTH WHERE HIGHER QPF OCCURS. WHILE LOWER QPF AND HIGHER SLR'S FARTHER NORTH SUPPORT SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS AND GENERALLY STICKING WITH A 1-3 INCH FORECAST TONIGHT...THOUGH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS WOULDNT BE AT ALL SURPRISING. LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF/ENDING AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOPEFULLY ANY FRDZ WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ROAD CREWS A CHANCE TO CATCH A FEW HOURS OF SLEEP EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE BIG HULLABALOO STARTS TUESDAY. OVERALL AGREEMENT IN MODELS ON SYNOPTIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXCELLENT...WITH JUST THE 00Z NAM A LITTLE WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND LARGELY BEING DISCOUNTED. I CANNOT STRESS THIS POINT ENOUGH: MODEL ACCURACY AT THIS DISTANCE IS NOT SUCH THAT ITS WISE TO OFFER ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...SUCH AS THIS ONE...MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS TYPICALLY RESULT IN VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. EVEN WITH VERY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE FORECAST STORM TRACKS IN MODELS SHIFT BY 100 MILES OR MORE IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS FROM THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING/OCCLUDING LOWS. SUCH A SHIFT IN STORM TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS FORECAST TO GET 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ENDING UP DRY SLOTTED WITH DRASTICALLY LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...NO PLANS TO MAKE UPGRADE ANY OF THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...HERE ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE STORM AS THEY APPEAR NOW... SNOWFALL: INTENSE 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SUPPLYING THE CYCLONE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BOTH WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WITHIN THE DEVELOPING TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE. QPF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND USING A REASONABLY CONSERVATIVE 10-12:1 SLR RESULTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-14 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT ALONE. PROBABLY WORTH NOTING THAT CALCULATING/MEASURING THE ACTUAL SNOW:LIQUID RATIO THAT OCCURS MAY WELL BE DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF BLOWING/DRIFTING EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS COULD RIP DENDRITES APART...FURTHER LOWERING THE EFFECTIVE SNOW:LIQUID RATIO. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NE IL AS IMPROVING THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SET UP. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO NW INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN INTENSIFYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT ALONE COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN NE IL AND PROBABLY MORE THAN THAT IN NW INDIANA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH SNOWFALL GRADIENT AND WITH GFS /WRF-NAM BOTH SUGGESTING DRY INTRUSION MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA LATE TUES NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS OVER A FOOT CWA-WIDE IS MODERATE. WIND: DEEPENING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT KICKS IN WITH QUICK DEPARTURE AND FILLING OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY 50 MPH COMMON. HOWEVER...NEAR THE LAKE WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER...PROBABLY 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS: VERY HIGH QPF TOTALS RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT THE BLOW-ABILITY OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS. HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4SM SATISFYING THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER INCREASING THE THREAT OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW. WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WITH INTENSE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AS INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WORKS IN CONCERT WITH TREMENDOUS UPWARD MOTION RESULTING FROM FAST MOVING...RAPIDLY DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DRY INTRUSION WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8C/KM...WITH SOME OF THAT INSTABILITY LIKELY GETTING TAPPED INTO AND PROBABLY RESULTING IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LAKESHORE FLOODING: NORTHEAST WINDS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH MAKES LAKESHORE FLOODING A BIG CONCERN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM JAN 28TH SHOWED THAT ICE THAT HAD ACCUMULATED NEAR THE IL SHORE HAD BEEN BLOWN WELL OFFSHORE...AND APPEARED SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED IN NATURE EAST OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH THAT ICE WILL RETARD WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SHORE...BUT WITH 14-18FT SIGNIFICANT WAVES AND OCCASIONAL WAVES OVER 25FT OFFSHORE POTENTIALLY TAKING A TOLL ON ICE HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND HOIST A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ICE COULD MITIGATE THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT HARD TO SAY FOR SURE AND IF ICE ISNT A BIG DETERRENT THEN THE COASTAL FLOODING COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. IZZI TEMPERATURES AND LONG TERM... MONDAY... THE 850 MB PROFILER DATA AT 07 UTC SHOWS THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN 20 TO 25 RANGE TODAY AND TUESDAY. A SMALL 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY. THE FORECAST FRONTOGENESIS VECTORS AT 850 MB SHOW A FRONT DEVELOPING ALOFT LATER TODAY. THIS IS SEEN USING OUR LOCAL WRF. THIS LOCAL WRF IS FORECASTING SNOW TONIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG IN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. HEIGHT FALLS WERE LARGE OVER ARIZONA AT 00 UTC. A 70 KNOT JET STREAK WAS SEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00 UTC. SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS THIS JET IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO EXTENDS INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY 07 UTC. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF KINETIC ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE AND A CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS. THE 07 UTC SURFACE MAP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. VERY COLD AIR IS SEEN MOVING INTO MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. THIS CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME INTENSE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS OR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 300 MB JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE POLAR JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOCATION OF THE TWO JET MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS MAY PLACE THE MAXIMUM UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE IN A BAND OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA. SOME CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALSO. THIS IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ISENTROPIC SURFACE FORECASTS AND WIND FORECAST AT 300 MB. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOW COLD AIR OVER THE REGION FROM NORTHERN COLORADO TO NORTHERN OHIO AT 00 UTC. THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ALL OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS MORE EVIDENCE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE LOW TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WITH THE SNOW OCCURRING WE EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S WEDNESDAY. BUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATUES MAY FALL TO BELOW ZERO IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST INDIANA. SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST FOR ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL SET UP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET UP A SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THURSDAY. A LARGE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS HIGH WAS A VERY COLD CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR MASS IN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN AT 07 UTC TODAY. AS THIS AIR MASS MOVES SOUTH IT WILL MODIFY A LITTLE...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVER A LARGE AND DEEP SNOW PACK. WE WILL FORECAST SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...A WEST WIND IS FORECAST OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN THE 20S FRIDAY. THE 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA. WE USED THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER IOWA AND MINNESOTA WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE TO 700 MB. WE WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 08Z... * MVFR CIGS ABV015 THRU PREDAWN HRS...RETURN BY EARLY EVE. * GRADUALLY INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. * LIGHT SNOW SPREADING W TO E ACROSS REGION...REACHING CHI AREA BY EARLY EVE. TRS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 08Z... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO TWEAK NEXT FEW HRS TO MESH WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS CONTINUING TO STREAM WWD/SWWD INTO SERN WI...NERN IL. PERSISTENT ENELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO ERODE LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK. AT 05Z...THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...TO JUST E OF GYY...TO NEAR PNT. THIS BACK EDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLEARING WWD...MOVING THROUGH NERN IL BY 09Z. OVERLYING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSD WITH A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING ACROSS AREA BY 12Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ALOFT OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO ALLOW AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR BY 03Z TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ENELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z MON...TO FQT GUSTS AOA 20 KT. MERZLOCK //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 08Z... * MEDIUM ON TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND ON RETURN OF MVFR AND IFR THIS EVE. * HIGH ON WINDS. * MEDIUM ON ONSET OF -SN LATER AFTERNOON-EARLY EVE. TRS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING. HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KT TUESDAY EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR BY 00Z WED. WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDING MIDDAY. BLOWING SNOW. WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VLIFR-IFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE. THURSDAY...VFR. FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE. SATURDAY...VFR. MERZLOCK && .MARINE... 335 AM...HIGH END GALES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY DEALING WITH STRONG WINTER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEK. MAIN VORT ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST US. SFC LOW WILL EMERGE OVER TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SETTING UP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO GALES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HEAVY SNOW...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AREA OF WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS. STRONG FORCING WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GALES BEGINNING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL APPROACH STORM FORCE CRITERIA. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BACKED OFF A COUPLE KNOTS WHILE GFS WENT STRONGER SHOWING STORM FORCE WINDS FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND ON THE TRACK OF LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON UPGRADE TO STORM WATCH. COLD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. ICE...WHICH MOVED FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND...SHOULD BE PUSHED BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE ZONES AS WINDSPEEDS INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PROHIBIT WAVE ACTION IN THE NEARSHORES DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...BLIZZARD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. IN...BLIZZARD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740- LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745...3 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 292015 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 315 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK EAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... IN A FLASHBACK - WHAT A DIFFERENCE A HALF-YEAR MAKES. I WAS THINKING AB HOW HOT IT WAS AT THE END OF JUL 2010 SO I DID SOME SEARCHING. JUL 29 - ALL 3 MAJOR AIRPORTS HAD HIGH TEMPS OF 92-94 W/ LOWS OF 73-76. THERE WERE STRONG TSTMS THAT AFTN - IAD GUSTED TO 45 MPH. SIX MONTHS HENCE WL WE BE THINKING ABT THE SNOWS OF THIS PAST WED? BACK TO TDA - SFC ANLYS SHOWS AN ARCTIC BNDRY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. CLRG SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY...DENSER CLD CVR CLOSER TO THE PA BRDR. THESE CLDS ARE CAUGHT UP IN A JET RUNNING FM THE UPR MIDWEST TO PA. A SHRT WV IS PROGRESSING THRU THIS FLOW BRINGING SNOW TO PA. S OF THE MASON- DIXON LN HAS HAD A FEW OBS OF LGT SNOW...AND MAY CONT TO DO SO THRU ERLY EVE...BUT NO APPRECIABLE SNOW IS XPCTD. AFTR THAT SKIES XPCTD TO RMN GNRLY CLDY AS THAT UPR LVL FLOW PERSISTS OVR THE MID ATLC RGN. THERE SHOULD BE LTL DIURNAL TEMP VARIATION TNGT - LOWEST TEMPS IN THE HIGHLANDS IN M20S...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA WL ONLY FALL TO 25-30. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... ON SUNDAY THE CD FNT THAT IS IN ASSO W/ THE SHRT WV OVR OH WL BE MOVING THRU THE MID ATLC. BLV THAT SUNDAY MRNG WL STILL SEE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...BUT THEN BRKS WL DVLP DURG THE AFTN. MDLS ARE FCSTG U40S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY...I'M GOING TO HOLD AT THE M40S. FURTHER N TEMPS WL TOP OUT IN THE U30S AND L40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY DEEP LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT TOWARD LABRADOR AS A BROAD RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...BRINGING A ZONAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. AN EASTERLY FLOW/CAD WILL SETUP MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COMPLEX PRECIPITATION SCENARIO MONDAY INTO MID WEEK. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION EARLY MONDAY WOULD RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST WITH TEMPS 0 TO -5C GENERALLY NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS...WENT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN SINCE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE. AS THE SATURATION DEPTH INCREASES WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A MOISTURE PLUME RIDING A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THE WARMING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ISENTROPIC FLOW INCREASES...AND THE PRECIP LIKELIHOOD WILL BECOME LIQUID /RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN/ AS SOLID PRECIP /SNOW AND SLEET/ ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LIGHT PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...IT WILL BE UP TO THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHETHER THE WARMER AIR CAN MIX OR RADIATE DOWN. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION RAPIDLY ENTERING THE REGION WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IS LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WHILE THERE WL BE XTNSV CLD CVR OVR THE MID ATLC RGN TNGT BLV CIGS WL RMN IN THE VFR REALM. BRKS IN THE CLDS SHOULD DVLP DURG THE AFTN AS A CD FNT PUSHES S ACROSS THE RGN. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE TERMINALS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FREEZING RAIN...PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-95 IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF LOW CIGS. STRONG WLY/NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. && .MARINE... NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TNGT. A WEAK CD FNT WL PUSH THRU THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BUT WIND GUSTS WL BE CAPPED AT 15 KT. WALKING ACROSS THE MEMORIAL BRIDGE BTWN ARLINGTON AND DC LAST WWK I SAW PLENTY OF ICE IN THE UPR PTMC. MODIS IMGRY SHOWS CHES BAY ABV BALTIMORE AND ITS ERN TRIBUTARIES ARE ALSO ICE CLOGGED. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION MONDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY BE MET. STRONG WLY/NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY GALES...AFTER A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BAJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 250851 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 351 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON... .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE AREA...PROVIDING RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION ARE DISCUSSED BELOW. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM... (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN LOW TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME INTERESTING THINGS WILL HAPPEN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THAT COULD INFLUENCE THE FORECAST LOCALLY. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...A SUBTLE BUT PERHAPS IMPORTANT ~100 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AT 250 MB IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE JET WILL BE ALIGNED IN A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR RISING MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL BE HAPPENING NEAR AND OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT WHERE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS EXIST. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE VERY ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THESE VERY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THEY MAY ACT TO LOWER PRESSURES AND DEVELOP A MESO-LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SQUALL LINE THAT MAY DISRUPT OUR LOCAL MOISTURE INFLUX TO SOME EXTENT. IN THIS FIRST SCENARIO...THE END RESULT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND A REDUCED CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS LOCALLY SINCE ALL OF THE THERMODYNAMICS AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF THAT DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED SLIGHTLY...THEN FAVORABLE LIFT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LATITUDE JET LOCALLY COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW COULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHWARD INITIALLY. IN FACT...OUR LOCAL 4 KM WRF IS SHOWING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOOKING QLCS SQUALL LINE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH FLOW OFF THE COOL SHELF WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY. THE LOCAL WRF...WHICH ASSIMILATES THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS SST DATA...DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND REGION...THE LOCAL HIGH RES WRF ACTUALLY MANAGES TO DEVELOP UPWARDS OF 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAPPENS IN THE MODEL BECAUSE IT HAS THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN DUE SOUTHERLY...WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE FLOW TRAJECTORY MORE AWAY FROM APALACHEE BAY AND ALLOWS A RICHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE FL PENINSULA. THIS IS A MUCH MORE THREATENING SCENARIO WHERE WE END UP WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE HELICITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING QLCS SQUALL LINE. AS WITH MOST CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS...IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH SCENARIO WILL HAPPEN DUE TO THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES OF EXPLICITLY FORECASTING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING THE MORE THREATENING SCENARIO...DO NOT WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TOO MUCH AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS IN THE AREAS THAT SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING DURING THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...THE AIR MASS BUILDING IN BEHIND TODAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN AND NOT ARCTIC LIKE SO MANY OF THE PRECEDING SFC RIDGES SO FAR THIS WINTER. THEREFORE...AFTER A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT FREEZES EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...A VERY WELCOME MODERATING TREND IS NOW EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS PERIOD...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...TO THE BALMY MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE 00 UTC GFS AND THE OLDER 12 UTC ECMWF... BUT MAINLY JUST IN THE POP CATEGORY...WITH THE MILD WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF HAS A VERY WET SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER POPS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE POPS TO THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW END POPS IN THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED. AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL ARCTIC OUTBREAK WE HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON...IT STILL COULD VERY WELL BE IN THE CARDS FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR IN NW CANADA IS STILL WAITING FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLUNGE SE BACK INTO THE SE U.S. && .AVIATION... IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A MUCH MORE CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST TONIGHT THAN IT WAS AT THIS SAME TIME ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW GETTING ORGANIZED JUST OFF THE SW COAST OF LA MOVES E-NE THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT IN ITS ADVANCE DUE TO A PERIOD OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. INITIALLY...THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT TIMES AND SHOULD FALL FROM MAINLY VFR LEVEL CIGS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT TLH AND VLD) ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE RAIN LINGERING AFTER 00 UTC WED IN MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG AFTER THE LOW MOVES THROUGH...SO TIMING THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WED. SHOULD BE QUITE CHALLENGING AS WELL. && .MARINE... AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES TO THE MARINE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL LIKELY END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH...LIKELY AT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST TIDES 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON COASTAL RESIDENTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE NEXT AIR MASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS LOW WILL LIKELY ONLY BE DRY ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT TO THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AS THE CRITERIA OF SUB 35 PERCENT RH OVER FL WILL BE EASIER TO REACH THAN THE MORE DIFFICULT SUB 25 PERCENT REQUIREMENT FOR OUR AL AND GA ZONES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 63 48 56 30 56 / 100 40 10 0 0 PANAMA CITY 62 46 54 34 54 / 100 40 10 0 0 DOTHAN 51 41 52 31 54 / 100 40 10 0 0 ALBANY 50 42 51 29 54 / 100 40 10 0 0 VALDOSTA 61 50 57 34 57 / 100 60 10 0 0 CROSS CITY 68 52 62 32 58 / 100 80 10 0 0 APALACHICOLA 64 49 57 35 55 / 100 50 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...DVD LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...GOULD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 220914 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 314 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2011 .DISCUSSION... 853 PM CST LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO UP POPS TO LOWER END LIKELY NUMBERS MUCH OF THE FA AS FEEL WILL BE STILL BE A MINOR...NUISANCE EVENT BUT WITH ENOUGH LOWER AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING LIFT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF TO LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND AT LEAST A TENTH OF AND INCH SF AND A HUNDREDTH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. NOT A WHOLE LOT MORE EXPECTED WITH GRIDDED SNOWFALL FORECAST TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.1-0.2 ACROSS THE IND COUNTIES OF THE FA UP TO 0.6-0.8 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. INITIALLY CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM OR NEAR CALM WINDS ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP BACK BELOW ZERO BUT WITH CLOUDS SPREADING W TO E ACROSS MOST ALL OF NORTHERN IL AS 9 PM CST AND SURFACE FLOW STARTING TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TEMPS ALREADY REBOUNDING. TRS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 310 PM CST THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CONUS...WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WEST COAST...AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...AN NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PATTERN WILL BRING PERIOD CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE NEAR TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING IL/IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF WHILE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SETTING UP A PATTERN OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 03Z AND HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO ARND -3F WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. WITH WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP MUCH LOWER THAN -10 TO -15F AT THE TIME MIN TEMP. SO...HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS ACTUALLY 2 SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 2 SHORTWAVES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN UNPHASED...WITH THE NRN WAVE LOOKING TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO. WITH THE LOCAL AREA REMAINING CUT OFF FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO WRN GULF COAST...ANY PCPN WILL BE THE RESULT OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING SQUEEZING OUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO REACH THE I-39 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN STEADILY SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INDUCING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEAK ELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN FORCING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NERN ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY LAKE COUNTY AND NRN COOK COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...THOUGH REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. BY MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A NEAR BALMY UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEAK...BUT AGAIN...ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. KREIN && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * ONCL -SN THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR VSBYS * MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THIS AM AND CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WEAK ELEVATED LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. AS THE HIGH PRES DEPARTS THE REGION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK FROM THE SW TO S. CIGS WILL STEADILY LWR AS ADDTL MOISTURE POOLS EAST FROM APPROACHING UPPER LVL LOW PRES. LGT SN HAS CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS MANY UPSTREAM LOCATIONS IN IA/SOUTHERN MN/FAR NW ILLINOIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. EXPECT LGT SN TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN IL AIRFIELDS...WITH PSBLY A 08-12Z WINDOW OF STEADIER SN. IT CURRENTLY DOESN/T APPEAR VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO 3SM...SO HAVE HELD VSBYS AT 4SM WITH THE STEADIER SN BTWN 10-12Z. WITH HOW DRY THE ATMOS CURRENTLY IS...SN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN POWDER FORM OR FLUFFY SN. CIGS WITH THIS AREA OF SN SHUD REDUCE TO ARND 2KFT AGL. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWLY BACKED OFF ON A QUICK EROSION OR PROGRESSIVE DRY AIR ARRIVAL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR A RETURN TO VFR CIGS. HAVE HELD ONTO REDUCED CIGS OR MVFR THRU 16Z FOR MOST AIRFIELDS. WINDS THEN TURN W/NW AFT DAYBREAK SAT. BEACHLER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN -SN THRU EARLY AM * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THIS AM * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 06Z... SUNDAY...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH LGT SN. MONDAY...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH LGT SN. TUESDAY...EARLY LGT SN AND MVFR TRENDING VFR. WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...VFR. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 314 AM CST NO GALES CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH 1ST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SW WIND THIS MORNING WILL VEER NW TODAY WITH WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND VEER AROUND THE COMPASS SUNDAY AS NEXT LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO FRESHEN UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE AND BECOME WESTERLY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE MODIS IMAGERY FROM UNIV OF WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE WAVES FROM NSH FORECAST AS MAJORITY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW ICE COVERED. IZZI && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 290804 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 AM EST WED DEC 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM / THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY... THIN CIRRUS AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD LIE DIRECT OVER THE CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING..THEN SHIFT TO THE COAST TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE DEPTH OF MIXING WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT...AND THUS MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS VERIFIED TOO COOL RECENTLY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TO ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER TUESDAYS VALUES. BASED ON MODIS VISIBLE IMAGERY...SNOW COVER REMAINS GREATEST ALONG I-95 AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH LESS COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS TO BE RELATIVELY COOLER IN WHATS LEFT OF THE SNOW COVER...WITH HIGHS OF 45-52. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SE. WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...THE LOWEST 10-12K FT LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE DRY. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO HAVE GONE CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST...25-29 EAST TO WEST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY... SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TOP THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CROSS VA THURSDAY. WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODEL QPF MOST ROBUST OVER NORTHERN VA...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY....AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN EJECTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOIST WARM ADVECTION AND STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND AND DEEPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST TO THE TN VALLEY REGION.. IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 30...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEARS EVE): A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS AN H5 TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH/SE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THU NIGHT... PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY FRI/FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES REBOUNDING TO ~1340 METERS 12Z FRI...FURTHER INCREASING TO ~1350 METERS FRI EVENING. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD BE INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY FRI IN ASSOC/W INCREASINGLY SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM 56-61F (5-10F ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FRI NIGHT IN ASSOC/W STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM PRECIP ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL BE IN THE TN/OH VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. EXPECT RELATIVELY BALMY LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S...WARMEST WEST/SW AND COOLEST EAST/NE. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE TN/OH VALLEY 12Z SAT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SAT EVENING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW 20-40 METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS SAT INTO SUN. THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF THE NECESSARY 'INGREDIENTS' FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW 0.10-0.25" OF QPF OVER CENTRAL NC...PRIMARILY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND POOR LAPSE RATES. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS ON SAT NIGHT/SUN TO 50%. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS ON BOTH SAT/SUN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE SANDHILLS/SE COASTAL PLAIN COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA...LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S OWING TO A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS SUNDAY SOMEWHAT TRICKY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME...WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S N/NW AND LOWER 60S S/SE FOR SUN. EXPECT A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: WILL TREND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN FOR THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA MON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON TUE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE 12Z GFS TRIES TO GEN UP A WEAK COASTAL LOW MON/TUE...HOWEVER... THIS IS A PRETTY WEAK/SUBTLE FEATURE TO EXPECT THE MODEL TO HANDLE EVEN REMOTELY WELL AT THAT TIME RANGE. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY ON MON/TUE...WITH HIGHS NEAR 50F AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1225 AM WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY WILL BE THICKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. CEILINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE PREDAWN THURSDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR VISBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...MLM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 011020 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 300 AM MST WED DEC 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDINESS TO PASS OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OVER THE PEAKS NEAR THE BORDER BUT CHANCES PRETTY SLIM...GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START A MORE VIGOROUS WARMING TREND TODAY...AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP. EXPECT SOME BREEZINESS IN THE USUAL EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS TODAY. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUDS AND MORE WARMING AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT OVER THE STATE. THIS TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKIER DAY BY DAY. THE RIDGE RULES SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LEAVES BEHIND A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...WHICH OOZES SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A COOLDOWN COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS SATURDAY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER BUT WESTERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO ERODE A BIT. THE REAL PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. STUCK WITH THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE GFS TRACKS A DISTURBANCE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY...WHICH MIGHT HELP DRAW AN EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND SPREAD THE COLDER AIR MASS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS FARTHER WEST. THE DGEX IN PARTICULAR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SOME OF WHICH REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. IN ANY EVENT...TEMPERATURES MODIFY BY WEDNESDAY UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A 1016MB LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO DOMINATE THE AREA...THUS TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER AND WINDS SLIGHTLY BREEZIER. AN ISOLATED AREA OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BTWN CLINES CORNERS...VAUGHN...SANTA ROSA...AND LAS VEGAS BY LATE THIS MORNING HOWEVER NO FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ISSUED. MELTING SNOWPACK EVIDENT ON THE 2013Z MODIS 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY TUESDAY IN NEARLY THE EXACT SAME AREA WILL MITIGATE SURFACE FUEL DRYNESS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20-25 PCT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO 10-15 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTH. VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WHERE FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED. THE UPR LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE FROM NW FLOW TODAY TO WESTERLY THURSDAY AND LIGHT SW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OF LIGHTER WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS AND MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURE INVERSION PATTERNS AT NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR MOST AREAS AND NEAR FAIR ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. MIN RH VALUES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE AND RANGE FROM NEAR 25 PCT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO 10 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD OVER THE NW HALF AND FAIR FOR THE SE HALF. BY SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN WITH THE GFS THE FASTER SOLUTION AND THE EUROPEAN MUCH SLOWER. BIG DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EAST. IT DOES APPEAR THE NORTHERN MTS DO STAND THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 43 18 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 42 14 46 16 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 44 15 49 16 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 48 13 54 17 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 48 15 51 16 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 48 14 54 20 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 47 15 56 20 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 59 22 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 40 12 43 13 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 25 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 50 22 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 12 48 18 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 36 10 40 11 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 14 44 14 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 45 11 50 15 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 50 20 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 50 16 57 19 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 49 22 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 21 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 25 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 21 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 22 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 52 19 57 22 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 51 24 55 25 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 54 24 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 21 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 49 20 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 19 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 25 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 24 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 56 23 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 53 20 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 49 15 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 53 19 56 21 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 54 20 58 23 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 54 25 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 56 28 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 55 25 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 59 23 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 60 24 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 60 26 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 59 25 60 27 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 61 26 62 28 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 64 26 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 65 26 72 26 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 59 24 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 57 24 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 080919 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 319 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. INITIAL SURGE OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SCT- BKN CS ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT. MORE SCT CS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CLOSER TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN ERN SODAK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RH OVR ERN NE INTO WRN IA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED THIS PERIOD...BUT ENUF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FEW-SCT CS AND PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AC TODAY AS SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN WI/MN. SHOULD STILL MANAGE M/S CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING MIXING TO 925H. EXPC TEMPS TO STILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON SUN MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL LAKESHORE AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTN AS LATEST MODIS/AVHRR IMAGERY HAS SST IN NEARSHORE IN THE 6 TO 10 C RANGE. QUIET TNGT WITH TEMPS SLIPPING BACK TO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS MOST AREAS. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN REPSONSE TO UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPANNING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MILD FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL OFFER SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA. BETTER INLAND MIXING AND LESS LAKE INFLUENCE. WENT WITH ECMWF COMPROMISE APPROACH ON THE 925 TEMP STRUCTURE WITH NAM LOOKING TOO WARM AND GFS TOO COLD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER ON EASTERN SIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL TO THE WEST. 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WELL WEST OF WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS QUITE PARCHED. WILL GO WITH THE DRY LOOK FOR WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPICTED TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH NAM MORE AGGRSSIVE WITH DCVA. NAM ALSO SHOWING MORE COLUMN MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. EVEN STILL NAM HAS QPF JUST GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW THE SMALLISH POPS ARE STILL OK. THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. 850 RIDGING POKES ACROSS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTING MN INTO NW WI BUT NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO HERE IN SRN WI. ECMWF THROWING OUT LIGHT AND SEEMINGLY RANDOM QPF INTO SRN WI THOUGH WILL SIDE WITH OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THE DRY LOOK. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM MODELS SHOW CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER JET AND 850 MILLIBAR BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO THE 500 MILLIBAR PATTERN. GFS AND CANADIAN EVOLVE A CLOSED LOW RIGHT ON WI/IL BORDER 12Z SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A NORTHENR STREAM UPPER LOW BEING DOMINANT WHILE WHISKING A WEAKER REFLECTION OF THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. HPC TENDS TO FAVOR THE LATTER AND THE ENSEMBLES. SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR THAT ENDS UP GETTING WRAPPED BACK IN. ECMWF IS ACTUALLY COLDER THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -3 TO -5C BY 00Z SUNDAY BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS LEFTOVER. MAY NOT GET THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT SEEING SOME FLAKES. SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW GFS SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND THE FIRST WAVE WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A SEPERATE PIECE OF ENERGY HEADING NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE. && .AVIATION...PASSING CI ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE WL CONT TO AFFECT WI TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS TNGT AS NRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY DURING THE PD. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE BY AFTN IN EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 040821 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 321 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST ON ONSET OF COLDER CONDITIONS AND THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION NORTH OF MN ARROWHEAD WHICH TRACKS SSE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN WI TODAY. PWATS AROUND 0.30 INCH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...HOWEVER FORCING STRONG ENUF TO MAKE USE OF LIMITED MOISTURE TO ALREADY BE GENERATING -SHRA IN MN ARROWHEAD. STRONGEST FORCING WITH WAVE WL AFFECT CWA BTWN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY. DURING THIS TIME...CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WL BE SWEEPING THRU WI. INCREASING NLY WINDS WL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DELTA-T WL BE INCREASING TO 18 DEGREES. HENCE LOOKING FOR RAPIDLY INCRNG CLOUDS LATER THIS MRNG. LINGER THERMAL TROF AND NLY WINDS WL LIKELY RESULT IN CLOUDS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WI THRU TNGT. 1000-850MB LAYER WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY OVER LAKE MI THIS AFTN AND TNGT WHICH WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER LAKE MI AND AREAS DOWNWIND. CAN NOT RULE OUT -SHRA AFFECTING ERN AREAS OF RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES THIS BEFORE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND THERMAL PROFILE STILL INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXED IN WITH POTENTIAL RAIN IN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. 3 HOUR PRES RISES OF 2-3MB THIS AFTN AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WL RESULT IN BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION ON FRIDAY. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FRI AND FRI NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKESHORE WILL BE QUICKLY HEADING OFFSHORE DUE TO GENERAL OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED. MODEL SNDGS ARE LOOKING MUCH DRIER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MEANING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL CU WOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL MIXING...AND WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED BEFORE THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH GETS IN...SO IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL REACH A MIN OF AROUND -8C TO -10C OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA RIGHT AROUND 12Z FRI...AND THEN THE CORE WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN CWA BY 18Z. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND -4C IN THE MORNING...THEN WARMING TO AROUND -2C IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL...IN THE LOW 40S. THE WARMER AIR DOES NOT START SHIFTING INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BUT BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STEADY AT THE MID LEVELS. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO WARM...GETTING UP TO AROUND 3C TO 5C BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS SHOW SOME POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER A COLD MORNING START...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT UP TO THE MID 40S EAST AND AROUND 50 WEST. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SUN. 925MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO 8C TO 10C /00Z GFS/ OR 10C TO 12C /12Z ECMWF/ BY SUN AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO 13C TO 16C. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG INVERSION...MIXING IS ONLY PROGGED UP TO AROUND 925MB AT THE MOST. WENT WITH THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE FCST TEMPS ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF VERIFIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW A POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SFC PROGS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND QUICKLY MOVING UP INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOUTHERN WI DRY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MAINTAINED DRY FCST FOR THE WEEKEND. MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN WI AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY SSW WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT. THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER WINDS ON SUN AND THEN RELAXES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MON. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON MON...PROBABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. WENT WITH MIDDLE GROUND OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX T OF LOW 60S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TUE-WED FCST. THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF TO BRING A HIGH AMPLITUTE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG LEADING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWA ON TUE...WHICH SPREADS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST A DAY SLOWER AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THAT SHORTWAVE...AND DOES NOT GENERATE PRECIP. CHOSE TO HINT AT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON TUE WITH SCHC POPS IN FCST. CONFIDENCE LOW. CONTINUED CHC/SCHC POPS THROUGH WED WITH THE POSSIBLE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAX T EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S. && .AVIATION...EXPC CIGS TO RETURN TO SRN WI THIS MRNG...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RIDING ON BRISK NORTH WINDS WL MOVE ACROSS RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PICKING UP ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROF. FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO BEYOND VCNTY REMARK AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WL SAG SWD OVER LAKE MI LTR THIS MRNG...SETTING UP STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST MODIS SST IMAGERY VERIFY MID LAKE BUOY TEMPS AROUND 10 C WITH TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND 6-7 C IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN INCRG WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS THIS MRNG AND CONTINUE BLUSTERY THROUGH FRI AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR SETTLES OVER GTLAKES. GRADIENT FINALLY LOOSENS FRI EVE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NWD FROM NE CONUS INTO SE CAN. STATUS QUO ON CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVY. FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT...11/MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 222336 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 735 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND RESULT IN A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY... CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIR MASS THROUGH THE AIR COLUMN. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS NEAR TO IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MID 30S MOST AREAS... AND NEAR 40 MORE URBAN AND SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS. FROST ISOLATED AT BEST WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 85 PERCENT AT SUNRISE. WARMING CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING TO 1375 METERS OR HIGHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY... CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INFLUX OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AS WELL... BUT PERHAPS NOT SIGNIFICANT UNTIL TOWARD DAWN. WE ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS... AND ON THE LOW SIDE OF THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY. LOW TEMPERATURES 45 TO 50... WITH A RISK OF BEING COOL IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE NEAR TEN MPH. ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO REACH FULL SUN POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S... SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST. GOOD WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD AT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AIR MASS MOISTENS IN THE MID LAYERS WITH TIME...BUT CONTINUED OMISSION OF RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT STILL JUSTIFIED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY... OVERVIEW: ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...DUE TO A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PROGGED OVER THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MON/MON NIGHT... CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS OR MID-ATLANTIC MON/MON NIGHT. AT PRESENT...IT APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST ON SAT WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT NIGHT/SUN...THEN TRACK EAST THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OR TN VALLEY SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. THERE ARE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS W/REGARD TO THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS NO SURPRISE CONSIDERING A PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH IMPORTANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES (THAT WILL AFFECT THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE) NOT MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST (BEING SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK) UNTIL SAT. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST FOR MON/MON NIGHT SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS BY SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS (30-40%) FOR MON/MON NIGHT. GIVEN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MON/MON NIGHT. HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES GIVES 1390-1395 METERS MON AFT...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WILL FCST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON MIXING...GIVEN A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INCREASES IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION DUE TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MODULATED PRIMARILY BY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP) WITH PRECIP CHANCES TIED TO ANY SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS DIURNAL SHOWERS ASSOC/W AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND WARM ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRIDAY. W/REGARD TO TEMPS...WILL FCST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THICKNESSES REACHING UP TO ~1410 METERS ON WED/THU...WHICH COULD YIELD RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS PRECIP. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR RDU IS 82F ON BOTH WED/27TH AND THU/28TH. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 735 PM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.... A FEW RIPPLES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM A MODIS SATELLITE PASS SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE GOOD AVIATION WEATHER IN STORE. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. MOISTURE RETURN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BLS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 160754 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. .TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM...MOSTLY WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...AND THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WEST BEND TO LAKE GENEVA WHERE THE WINDS ARE WEAKER. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4 TO 2 MILES EXPECTED...BUT NOT DENSE FOG WHICH STARTS AT 1/4 MILE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY...IN THE RANGE OF 12C TO +14C 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO THE LAKESHORE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH FRONT AS MOISTURE LIMITED...WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING WELL NORTH CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...SO LOWS AND HIGHS A FEW POINTS LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. .SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET AIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STILL GETTING SOME DIFF/L VORTICITY ADVECTION. INITIAL PCPN WILL BE VIRGA UNTIL VERTICAL COLUMN BECOME MOIST. FRONTO-FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL PRESENT AS SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU...WITH LINGERING EFFECTS INTO MONDAY. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLD AIR ADVECTION SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ON TUESDAY A 3RD WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN INTO IA AND THEN IL...KEEPING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAYBE SOME BANDS OF CLOUDS AT MOST FOR SOUTHERN WI. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. AS WE GO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE AND DIGGING STRENGTH OF UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GFS IS DEEPER WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER...SLOWER..AND MORE EAST WITH THE TROF. IF GFS PANS OUT WE WILL HAVE CHANCES OF PCPN AND MORE CLOUDS WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY TO BE CONSISTENT WITH MY NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH THE MAX NUMBERS SLOWLY WARMING THRU THE 60S FROM WED INTO FRI. && .AVIATION...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY DVLP THIS MRNG IN BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. FEW-SCT CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS SFC FRONT PASSES THRU THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE...HWVR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. ONLY PROBLEM IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KENW WITH MVFR FOG. EXPC PATCHY FOG AT KENW TO THIN AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MRNG AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS LTR THIS MRNG...VEERING FROM MOSTLY THE SOUTH TO THE SW. WINDSPEEDS WILL REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY. AFTER FROPA THIS EVE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR WARM LAKE SURFACE MAY ALLOW FEW GUSTS TO EXCEED 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. LAKE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 14-15C PER LATEST AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT FOR TNGT AND LET LATER SHIFTS REEVALUATE. PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS SUN MRNG AS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...34 AVIATION/MARINE...11  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 122007 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A POTENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS WI TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...AND RIGHT ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT...THERE IS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT MAY SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE OVERALL GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. 1930Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM LA CROSSE TO DES MOINES...WITH A STROKE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING INDICATED BY THE NLDN JUST WEST OF DES MOINES. THE RUC SHOWS SOME CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY OVERALL LOOK TO THE FRONT...REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AND CUT POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY BEHIND THE SFC WIND SHIFT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WOULD PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE THEM ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON WED. 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5C RANGE...AND 925MB TEMPS ARE EXECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 9 OR 10C. SNDGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A VERY DRY PROFILE. THERE LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLITY FOR AT LEAST STRATOCU AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS THE CWA ON WED AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...PROBABLY IN NORTHEASTERN WI. THEREFORE...REMOVED POPS FOR WED. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND 40. THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO...UPPER MI...AND LOWER MI THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE VORT MAX WELL TO THE EAST OF WI...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS A SOLUTION THAT CLIPS THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD STAY WESTERLY NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE NAM/GFS...SO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP REASSESSING WITH EACH MODEL RUN TO SEE WHICH SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WED. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND 40. .LONG TERM... FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRI...KEEPING FLOW GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND NAM DELAY THE WARMING UNTIL FRI NIGHT. THEY KEEP THE CORE OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C. SNDGS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN...SO SUNNY SKIES WILL BRING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WARMER IF GFS SOLN PANS OUT. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS OF 11 TO 13C INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SFC AND UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL CROSS WI SAT NIGHT...AND THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE CWA ON SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE ON SUN...AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD THEN BE IN THE LOWER 60S. MODIS SHOWED LAKE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY. IF THESE TEMPS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKE...THEN LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE. MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE GFS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MON...WHICH DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS AND TRACKS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THE 00Z ECWMF ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IT TOOK ON A DIFFERENT SFC SOLN. THE ECMWF STALLED AN 850MB FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL SUN NIGHT...PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS... AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTED IT SOUTH ACROSS IL ON MON. NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SOLN CAME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS...TRACKING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SFC LOW ON MON. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. THEN THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH FCST 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0 OR -2C AND DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A SHOWER CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH FROPA...BUT WITH A BKN DECK AT THAT TIME. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT COLUMN QUITE DRY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC AVIATION/MARINE...10/PC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 100945 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 545 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE STATE NEXT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TEMPS ALREADY NR 32F OVR THE N MTNS AS OF 09Z WITH ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GO. IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE N MTNS THIS AM...MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY NICELY SHOWING VALLEY FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z BASED ON LATEST 3KM HRRR. UPSTREAM SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY...HELPING TEMPS REBOUND FROM THE COOL MORNING. SREF MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 13C SUPPORT HIGHS FROM NR 70F NORTH...TO THE U70S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHRA OR TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PA. 03Z SREF INDICATING CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE LG SCALE FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDING EAST INTO THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY CHC OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVR THE W MTNS SHOULD FADE AFTER SUNSET AND LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AND MILDER THAN SAT NIGHT...AS HIGHER DWPTS PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION ON LIGHT SW FLOW. QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA MONDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LG SCALE FORCING TO RESULT IN A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THAN TODAY. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS OF NR 40PCT ACROSS THE N TIER BASED ON EXPECTED POSITION OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LPS RTS AND INCREASING MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT THE SLIGHT CHC OF SVR WX ISSUED BY SPC FOR MONDAY AFTN. A FAIR AMT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S /PERHAPS L80S SOUTHERN VALLEYS/. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO SPEED OF GRT LKS SHORTWAVE MON NITE AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BULK OF ENSEMBLE DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THE 00Z GFS IS A SLOW OUTLIER. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SREF/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NITE AND EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN PA MON NITE. FOCUS OF SHRA THEN SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN PA EARLY TUESDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE MASON DIXON BY AFTN. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CAA BEHIND FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER TUESDAY...ESP NORTHERN PA WHERE READINGS NOT LIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HI PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVR CENTRAL PA ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SUPPLYING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. HOWEVER...COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE WEEK AS LONG WAVE PATTERN FEATURES RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A CORRESPONDING FALL IN HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN CONUS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...BUT ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIGGING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS THURS/FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHC OF SHRA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO DROPPED DAYTIME TEMPS TO BLW NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE WEEK. A RETURN TO MILDER AND MORE SETTLED CONDS APPEARS LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD LAYER IN THE LOWER FEW THOUSAND FEET TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW HI CLDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A NICE EARLY FALL DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BTWN 9 AND 13Z ON MONDAY...BUT WILL LOOK THIS OVER BEFORE I SEND THE 12Z PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HI CLDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY... AS COLD FRONT TRIES TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ON MONDDAY...THEN MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON WED. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR TODAY. MVFR CONDS IN WIDESPREAD SHWRS LATE MON NITE...ESP WRN SXNS. TUE...MVFR/VFR CONDS EARLY TUE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. WED...VFR. THU...MVFR/VFR CONDS IN SHOWERS EARLY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-037- 041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD AVIATION...MARTIN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 020917 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 517 AM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN PA PROVIDING THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATION FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND HRRR SFC RH SUGGEST FOG BURNS OFF BY ARND 13Z. BFD CURRENTLY DOWN TO 34F. HOWEVER...MESONET OBS GENERALLY WARMER...SO ANY FROST WILL SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE GRT LKS ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHRA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN WESTWARD THRU ILLINOIS. INCREASING ISENT LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO A QUICKLY THICKENING CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 50S. BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. IN CONTRAST...MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SE PENN ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS NR NORMAL WITH AFTN MAXES IN THE U60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHRA SHOULD GRIND TO A HALT TONIGHT...AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH AND BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVR OHIO. ALL MDL DATA SHOWING ASSOCIATED LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS TRAINED OVR WESTERN PA TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVR WARREN CO. WEAKENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PA SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MTNS N OF IPT...WHERE SKIES REMAIN PTCLDY AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TOUCH OF FROST UP THERE WITH MINS IN THE M30S. AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVR THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...SECONDARY COASTAL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...DRAWING INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN PA. ANY SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT COOLER THAN TDY WITH MAXES FROM L50S NW MTNS TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN SYNC WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF PA BY THURSDAY. OPER GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN LIFTING UPPER LOW OUT TOO EARLY. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A WETTER AND COOLER FCST MON-WED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF UPPER LOW SHOULD PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN OVR THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WON/T LIKELY HAVE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED OF THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE LONG DURATION COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS. LATEST GEM/EC BLEND SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS QUITE POSSIBLE. WARMER AND DRIER CONDS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO SAT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT THOUGH...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG MAINLY IN THE NW AND CENT MTNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W/NW. AS S/W APPROACHES...VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS NW MTNS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE SE WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE NW MTNS SAT EVE AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR TO MVFR. SCT SHOWERS...ACROSS WESTERN HALF. MON...VFR CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS. TUE-WED...MVFR...IFR POSS EAST. SCT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...CERU/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 122027 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. POCKET OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST IOWA MARKING VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MONDAY. SOME MODELS CARRYING LIGHT QPF INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REFLECTED IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 305K SURFACE. CAPE AROUND 400 J/KG ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE ORDER OF 100MB...HIGH BASES TO THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF RADAR RETURNS OR GROUND REPORTS DEPTH OF DRY AIR FROM SURFACE TO 10K FT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING. NEUTRAL TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CONFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY. MIXING UP TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND +9C IN THE NORTH AND +11C SOUTH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REACHES WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. DRY EASTERLY FEED AROUND SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAX. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP MONDAY NIGHT...AND AMOUNT OF WARMING ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. AGAIN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TUESDAY WAVE LIMITING MIXING UP TO 925MB TEMPS OF 12C TO 13C SO MID 60S HIGHS REASONABLE. EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED CAPE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6C OR LESS...BUT WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER TO ACKNOWLEDGE DYNAMIC LIFT AND POSSIBLE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH VORTICITY MAX PASSING OVER REGION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN FOR THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT ON ECMWF. MODELS AGREE THAT A 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL FOR THE THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ABOUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND VORTEX CROSSING ONTARIO...AND TIMING OF BACKED FLOW OVER NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IN RESPONSE TO EACH WAVE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR STALLED BOUNDARY BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A SUBTLE LOW PRES TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WOULD CROSS THE CWA FROM 22Z TO 02Z. HOWEVER...DOUBTING THAT ANY SHOWER/TSTORMS WILL COME OUT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER TNGT INTO MON. HOWEVER...THE ADVECTION WILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SEA SFC TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...09 AVIATION/MARINE...13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 120825 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCE TONIGHT THEN HANDLING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOW STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WITH MAIN VORTICITY ACTION MOVING SE FROM CANADA TO THE U.P. BY 00Z MONDAY. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. 925 TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 20C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FULL SUN WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH NAM SHOWING HIGHER CAPE DUE TO INFLATED PROGGD SURFACE DEW POINTS. NAM ALSO SHOWING A BETTER SURGE OF 850 DEW POINTS REACHING INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY OF 850 THERMAL RIDGE. GFS/ECWMF HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF WI. WILL GO WITH VERY SMALL POPS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER THIS EVENING. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BENIGN NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAWAING CLOSER FROM MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL NEUTRAL ADVECTION. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM EXPECTING THE DRY LOOK TO PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. WAA PRECIP GETS GOING TO OUR WEST. ALL MODELS FOCUS THIS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA. NAM/ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE ON ADVANCING THIS INTO EXTREME SW WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER LOOK OF THE GFS/CANADIAN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM 00Z ECMWF HAS PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW FROM THE PLAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY QUICKER WITH BRINGING IN THE ISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIP. THERE ARE ALSO FURTHER EAST WITH LOW CENTER. GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. CANADIAN A COMPRMISE SOLUTION. WILL NEED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARYING SOLUTIONS. GREATEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE GFS CATCHES UP THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CONSISTENCY THERE TOO. WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF GOING LIKELY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NOT GREAT...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PASSES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH PRECIP LINGERING. MORE SOUTHERN POSITION OF ECMWF LOW CENTER WOULD FAVOR A LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE. SO HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TRIMMING THEM INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PD. FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN. THINKING NAM OVERDOING AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATER THIS EVE ASSOCD WITH BRIEF BURST OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MAY BE PD OF MID LEVEL CLDS ASSOCD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF WK LOW PRES TROF BUT THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD -SHRA WL BE SOUTH OF TAF SITES. && .MARINE...W-SW SFC WNDS GUSTING TO 13 TO 18KTS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING.. .WITH ABOUT 4MB ISOBAR SPACING ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SHORE FROM IL/WI BORDER TO GRB. WEAK SFC TROF PUSHES ACRS LAKE MI THIS EVE AS SFC WNDS VEER TO NW. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INCRS BEHIND THIS TROF LATER TNGT INTO MON...HWVR ADVECTION NOT STRONG ENUF TO PUNCH THRU STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS... ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SST TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 070139 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 840 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010 .DISCUSSION...STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS JUST NORTHWEST OF CWA...HOWEVER MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG NEGATIVELY TILTED COLD FRONT TO ALLOW SEVERAL STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT WEST NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMING TOGETHER AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN WEST AND WITH WMFNT IN VCNTY...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. OTRW...WIND ADVY STILL A GO. ONE SNAG WL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS THAT ROTATES AROUND LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY REDUCING MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. && .MARINE...PEAKS AT MODIS IMAGERY OF SST OVER NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN REVEALING STRONG UPWELLING HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH LAKE MI TEMPS POSSIBLY IN THE 50S. HENCE STRONGER INVERSION NOT ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN MN. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS EXPCD TO INCREASE LATER TNGT. NO CHANGE TO START TIME OF GALE WARNING AT THIS POINT AS WELL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051- 052-056>060-062>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 280821 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 421 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. AT TIMES A 5940 M CONTOUR...INDICATIVE OF A HEAT WAVE...WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THRU THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11-3.7U MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG FORMING IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON OBS FROM YESTERDAY AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BY 14Z. SINKING AIR BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES LATER TODAY. SREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS NEAR 15C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BTWN 80-85F...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HI PRES AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENDRITIC FOG PATTERN IN THE DEEP STREAM/RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVR PA ON SUNDAY. SREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS RISE TO ARND 18C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS BTWN 85-90F UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD WITH GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...TO BE SUPPLANTED BY DRY AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...IT APPEARS THIS WARM SPELL WILL FEATURE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MED RANGE MDL DATA ALL SEEM TO INDICATE EARL WILL RE-CURVE AWAY FROM E COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GRT LKS. FURTHER WEST...GEFS KEEPING PA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN ANOMALOUSLY LOW PW OF LESS THAN 1 INCH UNDER THE 594 DM 500 MB CENTER. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE WED AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH "RING OF FIRE" ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY LATE WEEK...ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE PICTURE BY LATE THU OR FRIDAY. GEFS PLUME DATA INDICATES MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THIS FROPA FOR IT/S NEXT CHC OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS SUGGEST SIG RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. ONLY PROBLEM FOR AVIATION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PA LATE TONIGHT...WITH KBFD/KIPT THE TWO LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. AT BFD... EXPECT VSBY AND CEILING TO DROP TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD JUST BEFORE 12Z. AT IPT...VSBYS MAY NOT DROP BELOW MVFR... BUT EXPECT A LOW /IFR/ CIG TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ONCE ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER A RETURN OF SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SAT NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /SUN-WED/ LOOKS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. OUTLOOK... SUN...PATCHY AM FOG/LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. MON-WED...GENERALLY VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR/EVANEGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 271058 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 658 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE WHOLE WORK WEEK. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE COOL EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOG ENHANCEMENT OF THE IR SHOWS FOG STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTH. DEWPOINT PUSHING STEADILY DOWN AT KBFD...WITH AIR TEMP DOWN TO 43F ALREADY. WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-L50S AND RAPID MIXING...THE FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY IN A HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. THEN...SUNNY. SFC ANTICYCLONE CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD TODAY. 8H TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...AND WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THUR. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THUR AND TODAY WILL BE THE LACK OF CLOUDS TODAY AND A DEEPER MIXED LAYER - PERHAPS UP TO 800MB TODAY. THIS SHOULD HELP MOST SPOTS TO GET A FEW DEGS WARMER TODAY THAN THUR...ESP THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. BUT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 800MB ONLY GIVES THEM LOWER 70S AT BEST. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TERRIFIC RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. NO CLOUDS...NIL WIND AND EVER-LESSENING SOLAR TIME. UPPER 30S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NRN MTS. NOT QUITE COOL ENUF TO SWEAT ABOUT A FROST ADVY...BUT 10-12F BELOW NORMS. 8H TEMPS DO RISE A FEW DEGS OVERNIGHT...BUT DECOUPLING WILL HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE SFC WILL STAY IN IT/S SPOT OVER THE ERN US...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL JOIN IT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM IN THE NRN AND CENT MTS EARLY SAT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN STREAM WATER TEMPS AND AIR TEMP. . 8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD...REACHING +16C LOCALLY BY SAT AFTN. BEST WARMING WILL BE TO OUR W AND N AS RIDGE DIRECTS WARMEST AIR INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ERN CANADA. MAXES WILL GET ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMS SAT AND ANOTHER 5 OR 6F HIGHER ON SUN. MUCH OF THE SE WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT 90F WITH 8H TEMPS UP TO +20C. MIN TEMPS SUN AM SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SAT AM. THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR IS JUST SO PARCHED SHOULD LEAD TO LESS OF THE VALLEY AREAS GETTING FOGGED IN ON SUN AM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-WEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE AUGUST CLIMATOLOGY...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEST-COAST TROUGH FCST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY WED-THUR. HPC MANUAL PROGS SHOW AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE-WED AND APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA THUR-FRI. THIS TIMING IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS/GEFS AND OP ECMWF/CANADIAN. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRING OF NEARLY CLOUDLESS DAYS AND LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z. DRYING GROUND AND MILDER NIGHTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG THIS WEEKEND WITH CENTRAL PA TERMINALS LIKELY REMAINING FOG FREE. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 251928 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 228 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. WEATHER QUIET AS UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS REGION. THICKER BAND OF CU TO THE NORTH MARKING SECONDARY COLD FRONT/DEW POINT FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE I-94 CORRIDOR AROUND 21Z AND CLEAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 23Z...A TREND HANDLED WELL BY NAM 1000-850MB RH FORECASTS. TONIGHT...WILL HAVE A CLEAR COOL NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S INLAND...AND N-NE GRADIENT WINDS OFF THE UPPER 60 LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES INDICATED BY THE MODIS SEA SFC TEMPERATURE IMAGERY HOLDING LAKESHORE TEMPS UP. LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING IN OFF-SET BY WARM GROUND TO KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FOG TO RIVER VALLEYS AND LAKES. THURSDAY...DRY AIR AND SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO A QUICK REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE DEPTH OF MIXING...BUT 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN 16 AND 17C WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEGINNINGS OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RAISE TEMPS/DEW POINTS. ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND GRADIENT WIND OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE MID 50S REASONABLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AS 925 TEMPS WARM TO 20-21C WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BACK OF SFC HIGH. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED ARE FOR TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THEN AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE WEEKEND IN BLOCKY PATTERN AS WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS AND TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC PHASES WITH SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING 925/850MB TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S HIGHS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FORCING STAYS OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVE FLATTENS RIDGE WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY THAT BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. GFS MUCH FASTER WITH AN INITIAL WAVE...AND THEN BRINGS SECOND LOW THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND TOWARDS ECMWF/HPC TIMING THAT BRINGS PCPN CHANCE INTO FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WILL LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY TO ACKNOWLEDGE GFS POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION...SCT CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVE AND REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THU. NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AS AN INVERSION SETS IN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. LAKE BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MKE AND ENW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...PRODUCING NWLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT NLY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION CROSSES LOWER LAKE MI TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL BEGIN DECREASING THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THU...THOUGH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...09/REM AVIATION/MARINE...22/ASEARS/MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 250728 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 228 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2010 .SHORT TERM... TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH THAN A FEW AFTERNOON CU WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF 15-16C HOLDING HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL KEEP FOG LIMITED MAINLY TO RIVER VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LEANED TOWARD THE MET FOR LOW TEMPS...AS MAV NUMBERS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AMOUNT OF COOLING DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN STORE THURSDAY...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE EAST DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE...AND A BIT WARMER IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT..WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH INCREASED HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...SHOULD SEE A GOOD JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EXTENDED...KEEPING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND HIGH HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM...AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP. WENT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MODEL 925 MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AS WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL RIDE UP OVER STUBBORN RIDGE. && .AVIATION... .AVIATION...SCT VFR CU EXPCD LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SRN WI. MAY BE BRIEFLY BKN BUT TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO ENTRAIN FOR CIGS TO LAST FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW NW GUSTS TO REACH 20 KNOTS FOR A TIME. WIND SPEEDS WL SETTLE TO BLO 10KTS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW INVERSION DVLPS. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS AND AVHRR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NEARSHORE SST IN THE 66 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE...WITH MID 70S AT MID-LAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WL ALLOW NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTN. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TNGT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION CLIPPING LOWER LAKE MI. GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SHORE. WIND SPEEDS SETTLE DOWN ON THU AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07 AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 200927 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 527 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEK. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH PA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW OVR THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DWINDLING CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE NY/PA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL PASS INTO NEW ENG...LEAVING THE DYING COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO CENTRAL PA WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. BASED ON RUC13 DATA AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHRA ARND DAWN OVR THE MTNS N OF IPT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND 3KM HRRR DATA SUGGEST THE FOG WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAY. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CU SHOULD BE ALONG DYING FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA...WHILE NORTHEAST PA IS LIKELY TO BECOME MSUNNY WITH ARRIVAL OF NEG PWAT ANOMALIES LATER TDY. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM U70S N MTNS...TO NR 90F S TIER VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TRANQUIL WX SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U40S LIKELY NORTH OF IPT. SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS NEW ENG ON SATURDAY...LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF CENTRAL PA DRY...BUT RESULTING LOW LVL SERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE MDL 850S TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST. IN ADDITION...A VEIL OF CIRRUS COULD HOLD TEMPS EVEN LOWER. HAVE THEREFORE HELD HIGHS NR THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO OUTPERFORM THE GFS MOS IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS. INCREASING LG SCALE FORCING AND LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR WEST TOWARDS SAT EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA THE WET WEATHER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NITE OR SUNDAY AS A SLOWLY DIGGING UPPER TROF INTERACTS WITH THE DEEPER RETURNING MOISTURE. THIS IS WHEN WE GET THE PW TO SURGE TO 1 TO 1.5 SDS ABOVE NORMAL TOO. SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME SOAKING RAINFALL GIVEN ANOMALOUS PW OVER 1.5 INCHES. BULK OF MED RANGE MDL DATA NOW COMING IN LINE WITH THE IDEA OF UPPER TROF CUTTING OFF OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND CHC OF SHRA...WHILE LOWERING THE DAYTIME TEMPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY BE ABSORBED BY NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THE CHC OF A TSRA WED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. HOWEVER...LOW PWATS FROM LATEST GEFS SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT. LATEST GEFS 850 TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND L80S LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT DROPPING MUCH...AND FRONT MAY KICK UP A SLIGHT BREEZE AT TIMES...THINK FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLD OFF TO SUNDAY. FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE...LOOKING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS SYSTEM TRIES TO CUT OFF. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM FOG...THEN VFR. SCT TSRA PSBL SAT EVENING/NIGHT. SUN-TUE...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...MARTIN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 190922 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 522 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COLD FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.78UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WHILE FOG A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE S TIER...WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. LATEST 3KM HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 13-14Z. LINE OF BKN CU NOTED OVR NW PA AND S TIER OF NY STATE MARKS THE LOCATION OF A WEAK TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATER TODAY ACROSS MTNS OF NE PA. NO SVR WX THREAT INDICATED...AS MDL CAPES BLW 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR WEAK. ON BALANCE MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH A FEW EXTRA CU ACROSS THE N MTNS. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 17C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE NR LK SUPERIOR WILL TRACK ENE RATHER THAN SE...SO AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES PA TONIGHT IT WILL BE WITH WANING LG SCALE SUPPORT. 03Z SREF DATA SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHC POPS AT BEST ALONG THE N MTNS...WITH A DRY FCST FURTHER SOUTH. SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS ARE PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS UPSTATE NY LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A STRETCH OF DRY WX. DESPITE THE EXPECTATION OF A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY BASED ON MDL 850 TEMPS...WHICH ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M70S N MTNS...TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI NITE LOOKING QUITE COOL ACROSS NORTHERN PA...WHERE GEFS NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING LOW LVL SERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER MAX TEMPS THAN 850 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED THE HIGHS TOWARD MET GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO OUTPERFORM THE GFS MOS IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA. OPER AND ENSEMBLE MDL DATA FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT CENTRAL PA WILL SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS WORKING THRU BTWN SAT NITE AND SUN NITE. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY COME SUN AFTN WITH BENEFIT OF DIURNAL HEATING. MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ECMWF ENS MEAN 500 PATTERN SHOWING UPPER TROF SLOWING DOWN OR CUTTING OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE GEFS MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE TRIED TO STRIKE A BALANCE BTWN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...KEEPING A LOW CHC OF SHRA IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SE ZONES THRU TUESDAY. ARRIVAL OF NEXT COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY ARND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT CHC OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE NR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SOME MID LVL CLDS WILL WORK INTO THE NW MTS LATER THIS AFT. SOME CLDS MAY GET AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AT ROUTE 6...BUT THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG FOR FRI AND SAT...HARD TO SEE ANYTHING GOING ON. AS I WAS THINKING LAST NIGHT...SHOWERS NOT REAL LIKELY ON SAT...MORE OF A SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENT. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SUN-MON...MVFR AND IFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI AVIATION...MARTIN