FXUS64 KSHV 021807 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1207 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .AVIATION... FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS OUR TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS NOON HOUR. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP LIFTING SLOWLY AND SCATTER ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WRN SITES IN E TX AND AT SHV/TXK. FARTHER EAST...SOME -RA/BR IS STILL OBSERVED AT MLU BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CLOUD THICKNESS AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN DUE TO THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LGT/VRBL WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ UPDATE... TWEAK SKY AND REMOVE RAIN/FOG POPS/WX FOR THE MOST PART. DISCUSSION... REGIONAL 88D RADAR MOSAICS STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER N CENTRAL LA...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS DONE FOR THIS EVENT. THERE ARE A FEW HOLES IN THE LOW CLOUD DECKS...MOST OF WHICH HAVE FILLED BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. SO...NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 60S NOW AND OUR EVER POPULAR STANDARD TIME RULE OF ADD 10 AT 10 BEING UNDER CUT WITH THE CLOUDS STILL IN PLACE AND JUST A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. OUR VISIBILITIES ARE MUCH IMPROVED WITH STILL SOME VERY LIGHT FOG AT A COUPLE OF SITES FROM EL DORADO TO RUSTON WITH IMPROVEMENTS THERE PERHAPS BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR. AREA WIDE...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO THIN WITH MOST LOCALES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 58 77 60 / 20 10 10 10 MLU 72 57 77 60 / 20 10 10 10 DEQ 75 52 76 56 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 73 56 76 59 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 72 54 76 58 / 20 10 10 10 TYR 74 58 77 60 / 10 10 10 10 GGG 74 57 77 59 / 10 10 10 10 LFK 75 58 78 59 / 20 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 19  FXUS64 KSHV 021221 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 721 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, VFR with light rain showers for LA/AR terminals as a weak upper disturbance lift NE out of the NW Gulf of Mexico. Some MVFR cigs and vsby may still affect TX terminals into mid morning. Otherwise VFR into the evening, but VLIFR-MVFR issues may develop by 03/09z with rain and fog through this cycle as a cold front shifts light SE flow to N/NE 03/ 15Z-21Z. Aloft, SW flow on climb out extends into FLs at 15-30KTS bcmg N/NW 03/18z from the sfc on up as dry Canadian air will spill down for Friday and wknd. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ UPDATE... Scattered light rain showers were moving northeast along a Florien LA to a Strong AR line, courtesy moistening atmospheric levels and a weak embedded disturbance in the southwest flow aloft. Have elected to include a precipitation mention for the aforementioned area beyond 12Z this morning. Furthermore, have also expanded the patchy fog mention across portions of Deep East TX and central LA through 15Z, where thereafter it should scour out. Otherwise, the forecast is still on track for additional precipitation later this morning/afternoon across portions of the ARKLATEX and southeast OK. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ DISCUSSION... An upslope sfc regime has enveloped the Four-State region the last few days, resulting in dewpoints surging into the lower-middle 60s early this morning. Temp-dewpt spreads of 3 degrees or less noted across portions of Deep East TX and central LA would normally mean chances for fog, under ideal conditions. However, conditions are not exactly ideal as a plume mid-level Gulf moisture/cloudiness stretched from Lufkin TX to Prescott AR may aid to discourage fog from forming, though intermittent VFR-MVFR VIS is not completely out of the question. The UA ridge that was once a dominate synoptic feature for the region the last few days is now centered across the southeast CONUS, courtesy of an UA low across the Desert southwest. As such, southwest flow aloft has sharpened and subsequently the atmosphere in the upper levels is gradually moistening, which is validated by rather light radar echoes noted within the mid-level cloud deck across portions of the ARKLATEX. Have therefore opted to include a mention of a few sprinkles early this morning. The previously mentioned UA low is progged to cutoff from the overall synoptic flow and become quasi-stationary across the Desert southwest for the next 24 hours or so. As large scale ascent provided by the downstream UA low becomes a bit more prevalent, coupled with southeasterly sfc winds /thus garnering PWATS of 1.50- 1.70 inches/ and southwest flow aloft, will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today-tomorrow. Concurrently, a broad UA trough translating across the Great Lakes region and the northeast CONUS will send down a cold front tomorrow. Although a few showers may initially develop along the front, it is anticipated not to last very long given the dry air accompanying the front /PWATS dropping to below 1.00 inch starting tomorrow night/. With the UA ridge making a return to the FA by the end of the week, and the already dry air in place, rain chances will diminish and skies will clear but temps will be cooler given the CAA ushered in by the front /highs in the 70s Friday through the end of the extended period/. The stubborn Desert southwest UA low will finally eject northeast /while opening up/ to across the High/Northern Plains likely not to impact the region. Right on its heels, will be another UA trough that models are struggling to resolve, for today the GFS hints at it becoming cutoff across west TX thereby resulting in little to no precip chances, versus a progressive UA trough and increased precip chances next week per the ECMWF. The Super- blended solution certainly appears to be biting off the latter solution, so will hold on to slight chance pops attm, keeping in mind this may change in the near future. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 67 82 62 / 20 10 30 10 MLU 86 63 85 59 / 20 10 20 10 DEQ 80 63 82 55 / 20 20 20 10 TXK 81 66 80 58 / 20 20 30 10 ELD 82 64 81 56 / 20 10 30 10 TYR 81 67 80 62 / 20 30 30 10 GGG 84 66 82 62 / 20 20 30 10 LFK 85 67 84 65 / 20 10 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/29  FXUS64 KSHV 101237 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 737 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, VFR attm. MVFR/vsby coming w/ TS dvlpmt on outflows and a weak stationary front over NE TX/S AR. This front will sink a bit more S and turn to lift back slowly N this wknd. VCTS in many sites now with tempo for elevated TS W of KTYR movg E at 10KT. It appears to be backbuilding attm, but should progress faster E w/ heating. Sfc winds will be SW bcmg W/NW along I-20. Climb winds and FLs are W 10-30KT. Gusty winds and heavy down pours will be tempoed throughout the next cycle or few. Little change over the wknd with front is vicinity for days. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018/ SHORT TERM.../Friday through Saturday/ Mid clouds are spreading from TX into LA with partly cloudy skies elsewhere over our North with some lower heights and likely surface based boundary interaction. Air temps are all over the place with lower 70s North and mostly mid to upper 70s and even 80 or above in a couple of spots. Our surface winds are light S/SW or calm and aloft have been veering slightly from SW overnight to W/SW at this time. Last night's sounding was down a bit to 1.84 PWAT. Our 88D Doppler Radar is busy busy for South Arkansas with some of the heaviest activity at present and we are just beginning to see a few blips of moderate rainfall over E TX. Farther West, TS coverage is more pronounced in central TX and generally moving this way. The HRRR all night has shown nothing N of I-20. Hmmm..., but does show the central TX activity edging into our W corner this afternoon. So, where else to look but the radar with trends increasing activity, albeit a little later than the last several nights. We just can't seem to make this mid level moisture work for all of our areas as the main upper low over the boot heel of MO is moving East. However, there are still a few outflow boundaries lingering and then there is the weak front over NE TX/SE OK/W AR and this frontal boundary may work a little farther South before turning around to lift out this weekend. Overall, we are on track for our coolest day(s) and most rainfall as has been advertised all week. Hopefully so, as this will all unravel over the weekend with hot and dry not far away. The WPC day one QPF is better S of I-20 today and areawide on Saturday, but still nothing to write home about in this drought of ours. Due to the slow movement of this activity it is possible to see some better numbers in the bucket and minor flooding is really what most of us need except S AR where yesterday the rain came down well at this time of day. The WPC does have a marginal risk for excessive rainfall along and S of I-20 and then areawide tomorrow. SPC is looking at a general line and of course this time of year if you can get above average heat, that rain cooled air can pack a punch, per yesterdays TS in Bossier parish. So it is likely to remain isolated threat wise for any more damaging wind with highs around 90 today and tomorrow. /24/ LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Thursday/The upper level low will continue to retrograde over Texas Saturday night and Sunday, keeping southwesterly flow aloft over the ArkLaTex. As a result, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the weekend. This low will continue drifting to the the west for the first part of the work week. As it does, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will gradually shift to primarily northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Temperatures will also gradually warm through the first part of the work week, with temperatures returning back to normal ranges by Tuesday for most areas. As this low drifts northward and finally lifts out of the region, the threat of showers and thunderstorms could return to our far northern areas for Wednesday. Another disturbance may bring a better chance of showers to the region on Thursday, with temperatures remaining near normal. Palmer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 89 74 90 73 / 50 40 50 30 MLU 89 73 90 73 / 50 30 40 20 DEQ 92 69 89 70 / 20 20 40 20 TXK 90 71 89 72 / 30 30 50 30 ELD 90 70 91 72 / 30 20 40 30 TYR 90 72 90 71 / 60 40 60 40 GGG 89 73 89 73 / 50 40 60 40 LFK 89 73 90 74 / 60 40 60 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/28  FXUS64 KSHV 261218 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 618 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, IFR/MVFR mainly cigs may scatter briefly this afternoon. SE SFC winds 5-10KT & SE10-30KT for climb, veering to S/SW for FLs at 30-70KT. Gusts will mix down as cigs lift a bit later this a.m. with 10-20G30KT all aftn/evening ahead of an eventual SQ line forming around midnight and moving ENE across our terminals beyond this fcst cycle. Back edge clearing from KTYR KTXK/KLFK/KSHV/KELD from 09Z-15Z and KMLU around 18Z. The fropa will hold off until overnight from 2806/2812Z NW 10-15KT. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/ Still some peaks of the stars early this morning with a range of mid to upper 50s. Winds are SE around 5KT, but aloft running 20-30KT at 1&2kft. For now gusts expected in the mid to late morning will be ramping up for the afternoon. The Lake wind advisory is for primarily E TX by noon and spreading East as gradient tightens. We have gone until mid evening for now as gusts may slack a bit, but sustained will continue 10-20KT. It is likely that an overnight convective watch will trump the lake anyway by mid to late evening. We are just into an enhanced risk area by around midnight through 12Z for our E TX counties late on the day one convective outlook. The slight contour covers E TX and just edges into Texarkana and Shreveport and marginal elsewhere with ongoing thunderstorm activity at daybreak, the SPC day two swings the slight risk area under I-20 from Toledo Bend dam into the MS delta with marginal remaining from Lufkin to Shreveport and El Dorado. Model consensus shows an increase in coverage of thunderstorms this evening over E TX coming to form a squall line for the overnight. Discrete cells are possible ahead of the squall with more of a QLCS potential for the overnight as the line slowly bows and undulates Eastward over the area. Rainfall totals will mount with still a good 3 to 5 inches for some top numbers under a solid divergent pattern aloft. Isolated totals may exceed that and a flood warning is possible for a spot or two, but a general areal flood advisory or warning should suffice during the overnight for a NOAA transmitter or two. Widespread flooding is a not a great concern, but some spotty antecedent soils remain quite wet in what is looking like a record month for rainfall. Southwest winds will follow the squall line out of the area with slowly clearing skies and potentially some warm temps in late day sunshine. The associated cold front will not arrive in this short term time frame. /24/ LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Tuesday/ The forecast period begins with a pronounced mid-level trough dominating the western half of the United States. This trough will be the focus of an active extended period for the region. There is GFS/ECMWF/Canadian agreement that precipitation with a cold front will exit eastward Thursday night, with high pressure to the northwest briefly bringing dry conditions to the area Friday and most of Friday night. By early on Saturday, the upper level trough across the Rockies will amplify and a southwesterly flow aloft will aid the movement of an inverted trough of low pressure from the western Gulf of Mexico northeastward into the Southeast. Our area will be on the northwestern fringe of the moisture envelope with this feature. With this in consideration, high chance POPs (40-50) are in the forecast for areas south and east of Shreveport in northern Louisiana for Saturday and Sunday. Models begin to diverge in a solution on Monday into Tuesday. The upper level trough axis will slide from the Southwest across Texas on Monday with the next surface inverted trough making a more northward push into the ArkLaTex region. The models diverge in resolving the inverted trough, with the ECMWF closing it off into a surface low and the GFS keeping the feature open as a trough and pushing heavier precipitation further eastward of the area. Forecast is a blend between the two with likely POPs Monday before high pressure builds in from the northwest drys the forecast out for the middle of next week. The GFS is a colder solution and brings a better chance of a light wintry mix of precipitation with the forecast Monday night into early Tuesday, but it currently looks like precipitation pushes east of the area before lower level critical thickness lines drop southeast into the area. Thus, the forecast precip type remains all rain at this time through this period. For temperatures, highs will be near normal ranging from the lower 50s in southeastern Oklahoma to the lower 60s in central Louisiana on Friday. Cooler air will advect into the area with cloud coverage with a more active pattern limiting highs to the upper 40s to lower 50s for the weekend into the middle of next week. /04/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 61 69 43 / 20 100 70 10 MLU 69 62 70 48 / 20 100 100 20 DEQ 66 56 67 36 / 20 100 30 0 TXK 66 57 67 40 / 20 100 60 10 ELD 67 59 68 43 / 20 100 100 10 TYR 68 55 67 39 / 70 100 20 0 GGG 68 57 69 40 / 40 100 30 10 LFK 69 61 70 43 / 80 100 70 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ059-070-071. LA...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ001-002. OK...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ077. TX...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 24/04/99