FXUS61 KPBZ 270001 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 801 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH 615PM UPDATE...PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LIKELY POPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE STILL SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME SNOW STICKING TO THE ROADS...BUT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PREVENT ANY SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING FOR A FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A FRESH COATING POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN FROM -7C TO -9C IN A PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN MARCH. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NAM MOS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS AND HAVE ADDED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE HOW MUCH SNOWFALL HIGHEST ELEVATIONS CAN SQUEEZE OUT BUT APPEARS NO ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY MORNING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO REGION AND HAVE TRIED TO BE OPTIMISTIC WITH SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT FLURRIES MAY NOT COME TO AN END IN THE RIDGES UNTIL FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT AND WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 40S FAR SOUTH. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WERE AGAIN SKEWED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM MOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE RGN FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT WITH DRY CONDS. A CDFNT WL APRCH THE RGN SUN...WITH FROPA EXPD SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON MRNG. SHRA CHCS WL INCR SUN AHEAD OF THE FNT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHCS WITH FROPA. COLDER AIR MOVG IN BEHIND THE FNT...ALG WITH AN UPR TROF...WL CONT THE CHCS FOR SHRA/SHSN INTO MON NGT ESP N AND E OF PIT. HI PRES BLDS BACK IN TUE. TEMPS WL WRM TO NR AVG LVLS OVR THE WKEND...BUT DROP BACK BLO AVG FOR ERLY IN THE WK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE THE TAF PERIOD AND FEED MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE AREA. RECENT OBS PAIRED WITH 4KM GOES-E MVFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE A KPIT-KFKL CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. MVFR WITH THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT KFKL/KDUJ OVERNIGHT WITH THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE FEED OFF OF LAKE ERIE. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND RETURN TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPO GROUPS ARE FORECAST FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNEDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 050904 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 504 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THIS MORNING WHILE CIRRUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY...WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE DAY. THIS IS INDICATED IN ALL OF THE MODELS TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST. LIFT PROVIDED NOT ONLY BY THE SHORTWAVE BUT BY THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVERNIGHT...FELT LIKELY POPS WERE APPROPRIATE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOGGY FRONT END OF THE SHORT TERM...AS SRLY WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE GREATEST ONE DAY RAINFALL SINCE APRIL WITH UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN THUR AND A TWO DAY TOTAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. OVERALL GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF AXIS ALONG AND E OF THE OHIO RIVER FM WV INTO SWRN PA. NAM AND SREF SHUNT HEAVIEST QPF EAST OF THE MTNS LEAVING REGION WITH A 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH. OPTED FOR GFS/ECMWF/CMC SOLUTION HOWEVER...PULLED BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY A FACTOR OF TWENTY TO THIRTY PERCENT GIVEN LACK OF STRONG SFC CYCLONE AND SE DOWNSLOPING SFC WINDS THE BETTER PART OF THUR. GIVEN WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEARING 11KFT...PWATS 2 TO 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL...AND COUPLET OF H2/H8 AGEOSTROPHIC DIV/CONV RAN POPS HIGHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE. IN ADDITION...ADDED A MODERATE QUALIFIER TO WEATHER GRIDS THUR INTO FRI MRNG. CONTINUED WITH A LOW PROB OF THUNDER DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INDICATED BY SATURATED BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES FRI...WITH MOST OF THE QPF PASSING OVER THE MTNS OF WV N INTO PA. CONSEQUENTLY HIGHEST POPS ARE PORTRAYED E OF PIT. DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS FRI NGT AND SAT BUT TROUGH AXIS RESIDES TO OUR WEST. NOT EXPECTING A PROLONG RAIN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT RUN OF DRY WEATHER...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RIVER / SMALL STREAM ISSUES. THIS IDEA IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREF FROM MMEFS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE DRIED OUT POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT HAVE ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH OTHER OFFICES. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE IMPRESSIVE FRONT CROSSING ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ON TUESDAY. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...BRINGING IN HIGHEST POPS ON MONDAY...BUT KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN NATURE. THUS...THUNDER WAS KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE WED NGT THRU FRI PD AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN OVR THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 100030 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 830 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING KEEP THE MENTION OF WET WEATHER IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 0Z SFC ANALYSIS ILLUSTRATES WARM FRONT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH AN AREA OF WAA PCPN MOVING NE FM WV AND SWRN OH. ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OH. ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 10.5KFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN A HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ELSEWHERE SREF PLUMES YIELD MEAN VALUES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL NOT CONCERN ABOUT ANY FLOODING AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE 20-30KT STORM MOTION OF THE COMPLEX. IN ADDITION...WE HAD THREE DAYS TO DRY OUT SINCE THE LAST EVENT WHICH WAS LESS THAN AN INCH. MINT CONSTRUCTED USING GRIDDED LAMP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND LIFTED NORTH AND EAST LATE TUESDAY. WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLY PROJECTED FROM THE GULF AND PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT VIA SEVERAL VORT LOBES AND MID LEVEL JET...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE KEPT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST...THINK THAT AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING MIDDAY TUESDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH POP NUMBERS/COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROVIDES FULL SUPPRESSION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PRECIPITATION WITH NW-SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDING FOCUS IN A MORE SHEARED THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SERIES OF SHRTWVS IS GFS AND ECMWF SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY NGT AND THURSDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE REGION. WITH FRONTAL POSITION ANTICIPATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLNS...HAVE RETAINED A LIKELY POP PROGNOSIS...BUT ONLY FOR AREAS GENLY SOUTH OF I 76. BLDG SFC HIGH SHOULD THEN PUSH THE FRONT SWD AND ENSURE A DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY COOL TEMPS WL MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD CNTRL CONUS RIDGE EXPANDS/SHIFTS SLGTLY EWD. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITION DETERIORATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. MONDAY DAYTIME IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SPECIFICALLY INDICATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS TERMINALS FROM 18Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUES. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY BUT RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO INCRS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRES AGAIN MOVS ACRS THE REGION. NO RESTRICTIONS OR PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...98 NEAR TERM...98 SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...33  FXUS61 KPBZ 101810 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 210 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHWRS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVE AS SHRTWV ACRS ERN OH/PA EXITS NEWD. THE MAIN UPR LOW WL MOVE EWD ACRS THE GT LKS AND OH VLY RGN TNGT INTO ERLY TUE CONTG THE SHWR CHCS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS WDSPRD. STILL A CHC OF TSTMS INTO ERLY THIS EVE WITH LATEST MESO AND RAOB DATA SHOWING 500-1000 CAPES ACRS THE RGN. INSTAB SHOULD DCRS THIS EVE ENDG THE TSTM THREAT. EXP DRY WEA BY TUE AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PERIOD STARTS OUT QUIET WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WARRANTS SMALL POPS NORTH OF I-76. MAIN FOCUS IS FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NCEP SUITE ALONG WITH ECMWF AND CMC CONTINUE REMARKABLE AGREEMENT RESOLVING A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WED AFT - NGT...THEN A SECOND JUST AS STRONG SYSTEM CROSSING THURSDAY. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK. SPREAD EXISTS WITH PLACEMENT...CMC IS FARTHEST S OVER WV...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/NAM TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER N ACROSS SWRN PA. EITHER WAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MEASURABLE PCPN...SO POPS WERE TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. SEVERE THREAT: MUCH THE CASE YESTERDAY...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING VIA UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL JET COUPLETS WOULD CARRY ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SE THROUGH OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...0-6KM WINDS ARE 40 TO 50 KTS...WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7CKM-1 AND 8K/KM-1 RESPECTIVELY. GUSTY WIND ATTRIBUTE WAS MAINTAINED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS AREA IN SLGT RISK AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. HIGH WATER THREAT: DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN IS RECEIVED WED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX...FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FOCUS IS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE /EXTREME SWRN PA...NRN WV...AND WRN MD/. THE SYSTEM WED IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO FOCUSED MORE ON THURSDAY WITH THE CYCLONE THAT TAKES NEARLY AN IDENTICAL TRACK TO THE ONE 12 TO 18 HOURS PRIOR. THURSDAY PWATS PUSH 1.8 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TOP 10.5KFT...AND H8 DEWPOINTS ECLIPSE 14C....WHICH ALL ARE HIGHER THAN WED. FOR NOW...MENTIONED POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN THE HWO AND ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE WEATHER STRING OVER THE SRN 1/4 OF THE CWA /2G4-MGW-ZZV/. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NO BIG SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED BUT A WELCOME RETURN TO A FEW CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. FULL LATITUDE TROUGH CROSSING THE ERN CONUS COULD YIELD SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FRI AFTN/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL NIGHTS WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF AVG TEMPS FOR MID JUNE. A SECOND WEATHER MAKER WILL CROSS IN THE DAY7-8 PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO ERLY EVE WITH OCNL SHWRS AS LOW PRES TRACKS E ACRS THE GT LKS. BRF IFR IS PSBL IN HEAVIER SHWRS AS WELL. TSTMS ARE PSBL INTO ERLY EVE BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION ATTM. PCPN SHOULD DMNSH THIS EVE WITH A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT...THEN MVFR AND PTCHY IFR CIGS EXPD TO REDEVELOP TNGT. CIGS SHOULD GRDLY INCR TO VFR TUE AFTN. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDS EXPD TUE NGT BEFORE LOW PRES BRINGS PSBL RESTRNS IN SHWRS/TSTMS WED THRU THU. HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDS EXP FRI AND SAT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/98  FXUS61 KPBZ 011750 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 150 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVERHEAD THIS WEEK. THIS CORRELATES TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND RETURN DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... INITIAL SLUG OF RAIN IS SLOWLY EXITING OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. A HANDFUL OF FLOODING REPORTS ARRIVED...BUT THE BREAK IS WELCOME NEWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SCT RW/TRW WILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. SPC MESOANALYSIS ILLUSTRATES INSTABILITY BUILDING WITH MUCAPES PUSHING 1.0KJKG-1 WITH 30 KTS OF SHEAR. HRRR SUPPORTS SCT COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING PCPN FREE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z NCEP SUITE WITH AREAS OF DAVA CROSSING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE MTNS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OWING TO INCREASED COVERAGE. ANY ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH DUSK...BUT BL MOISTURE WARRANTS A POP UP STORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF PREVIOUS DAYS...PLUME OF HIGH LAYER RH REMAINS ATOP CWA. STILL HARD TO FIND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BAROCLINIC OVER NERN OHIO WILL BE PRIMARY TRIGGERS. NWRN PA HAS THE GREATEST THERMODYNAMICS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND WIND. OF COURSE HIGH WATER IS OF TOP PRIORITY. SEE HYDROLOGIC SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MORE OF THE SAME IN THE SHORT TERM...AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID LVL LOW IN THE MIDWEST. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ILLUSTRATE AXIS OF GREATEST RH STRETCHING UP THE OHIO RIVER. DISTURBANCES RIDE NE IN THE SSW FLOW EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS...EACH OF WHICH SHOULD BRING DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. FORECAST REMAINS WITH CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER NUMBERS WILL LIKELY BE RAISED ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IS RESOLVED. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE MOSGUIDE BIAS CORRECTED /BC/ GRIDS WERE USED FOR MINT AND GFS40 BC GRIDS WERE THE FOUNDATION FOR MAX TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHRTWVS ARE EXPD TO CONT TO STREAM NEWD ACRS THE RGN ARND AN UPR TROF ACRS THE MIDWEST. THIS WL KEEP DAILY CHCS FOR CNVCTN LINGERING INTO THE WKEND. BY LATE IN THE PD...AN UPR HIGH OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC IS EXPD TO RETROGRADE WWD ACRS VA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND THIS MAY HELP LMT CNVCTV POTENTIAL IF RIDGING IS ABLE TO BLD FAR ENOUGH NWD INTO OUR RGN. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO BE NR SEASONAL AVGS THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN AREA HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH. AREAS STABILIZED FOR ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE HEATING WILL START CONVECTION AGAIN OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER ANY WILL ACTUALLY HIT AN AIRPORT. MVFR RESTRICTION IN FOG AND HAZE AT AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... HIGH WATER REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR MUCH THIS WEEK AS PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF LAYER RH EXCEEDING 75% AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 11KFT /TOPPING OUT ABOVE 12KFT AT TIMES THURSDAY/ SUPPORT THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FORECAST WIND FLOW TRANSLATES INTO TRAINING OPPOSE TO BACK BUILDING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS JUST ABOVE AN INCH IN HARDEST HIT AREAS...BUT OVERALL WHEN AMOUNTS EXCEED 1.5" THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR FLOODING OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS /WHERE IT IS LESS/. AT THIS TIME...NO RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...98 NEAR TERM...98 SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...20  FXUS61 KPBZ 250759 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 359 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST. DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S. RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. CL && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE. CL && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 251845 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 245 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST WERE NOT APPRECIABLE. ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS INCLUDED AN UPWARD BUMP FOR SCT...I.E. CHANCE NUMBERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE PBZ COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY AS NAM AND GFS PERSIST IN PROGRESSING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...THESE HAVE BEEN WEATHER LABELED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH. AN EXCEPTION WAS MADE FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND NEW PHILADELPHIA CORRIDOR WHERE WARMTH AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAY JUST SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EARLY THIS EVE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE HEDGE. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15  FXUS61 KPBZ 260742 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 342 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. CL && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CL .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 290800 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 400 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING SHORTLY. WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH TRACKING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING CAPE PROFILES FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN POTENTIAL. WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT. CL && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD. DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE. TAX && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RE-ESTABLISHED. TAX && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 291036 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 636 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM...UPDATED FOR SKY/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CAN SEE PLUME OF MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WV LOOP. THINK WESTERN COUNTIES AND/OR SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL SEE FIRST SHRA IN OUR CWA...WITH OTHER AREAS FILLING IN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING SHORTLY. WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH TRACKING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING CAPE PROFILES FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN POTENTIAL. WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT. CL && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD. DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE. TAX && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RE-ESTABLISHED. TAX && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES. STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND HARD TO TIME...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED ONCE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV JUST PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM THE NORTHWEST. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 071757 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 157 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL BE THE TREND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK IN THE WARM AIRMASS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST PA AND OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES OVER PA/WV/MD. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL TAKE MORE OF AN W-E ORIENTATION AS BAROCLINIC ZONE FLATTENS. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES PARTS OF EASTERN OH AND NW PA. THE BIGGER QUESTION AND PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE AERIAL EXTENT IF ANY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT TRAVERSING MONDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING OFF WHATEVER IS ONGOING DURING THE MORNING. FROM THERE...THE LINE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 18Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...WITH HIGHEST MUCAPE LOCATED EAST OF THE MTNS AND TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WV. KINEMATICS ARE A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE / LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLET ARE FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH CORRESPONDS WHY GREATER UVV IS FORECAST THERE. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE NWRN 2/3RDS OF CWA /FROM SAY IDI -ZZV AND NW/...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR A ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS. POINTS SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...ITS A DIFFERENT STORY WITH DAYTIME HEATING PREDICTED IN MOISTURE PROFILES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE TIMING OF CATEGORICAL POPS />80%/ LOOKS REAL GOOD IN EXISTING GRIDDED DATABASE...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED. OPTED TO KEEP OUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES FROM THE FORECAST GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD LINE OF STORMS. IF STRONG OR SEVERE CELLS DEVELOP THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE NORTH OF 10KFT NEGATING A LARGE HAIL THREAT. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE TRAVERSES DUE TO PWATS TOPPING OUT AROUND 1.8. DO NOT ENVISION A FLOODING THREAT FOR TWO REASONS...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE LESS THAN 9KFT AND FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED IS AROUND 30 KTS. MID LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY FROM COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A DEEPER TROUGH WARRANTING A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO WV. MUCH OF OUR OHIO COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE GIVEN SSE TRAJECTORY OF UPPER AIR IMPULSE FROM LAKE ERIE TO WESTERN MD. A QUIET DAY WEDNESDAY AS WE RESIDE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUMP DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 60F. 850 TEMPS OF 17C COUPLED WITH A DECENT MIXING LAYER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH MAXT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. OPTED TO SIDE WITH A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND SREF BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER IN THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF PLACE THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH IT FARTHER SOUTH TO PA/MD LINE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND H5 HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 580S...PREFER IDEA OF NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH WPC. NONETHELESS...WITH SERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDING...MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE AROUND DUE TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY GENERATED BY INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE LONG RANGE...WITH AN UPTICK OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS VFR CEILINGS MOVE IN WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VFR ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...98 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM...98 AVIATION...30  FXUS61 KPBZ 231819 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 219 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED...BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FEATURE AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAKE A RETURN. WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5KTS AND DESPITE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY...STILL THINK FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN GRIDDED DATABASE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND LESS HUMID WEDNESDAY. H8 TEMPS FALL BELOW 12C WHICH YIELDS MID AND UPPER 70S USING ENERGY BLOCK METHOD. TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING GRIDS AND BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE. BUFR SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A FAIR AMOUNT OF CU TOMORROW WITH A MODEST LAYER OF 85% RH AND GREATER IN THE LOWEST 6KFT. THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR ABOVE TO MIX DOWN THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BENIGN WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN MCS IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH IND/OH/MI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. GIVEN CANOPY OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND TIME OF PASSAGE DO NOT FORESEE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. PROPAGATION VECTORS TAKE THE SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN 1/3 OF CWA...SOUTHEASTERN OH AND NORTHERN WV. IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN OR DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED THEN A LARGE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE TODAY...SO ATMOSPHERE WON'T BE AS VOLATILE. NONETHELESS...IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THURSDAY...PLEASE KEEP TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS. BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5" WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 9KFT...SO HIGH WATER NOT A HUGE CONCERN...BUT IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA AS WERE HIT DURING THE DAY THEN FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN. FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS WEST TO EAST AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW STAGNATES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT IS THAT MOISTURE NEVER CLEARS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PA/WV/MD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SERVE TO AMPLIFY THE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS TROF IS IN FULL EFFECT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN MODERATED TEMPERATURE READINGS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF...WITH THE WETTER GFS CUTTING OFF THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS OF THE MINUTIAE...IT APPEARS AS TROF WILL BE HERE TO STAY AS A RE-ENFORCING WAVE WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TAX && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LINE OF STORMS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS SAVE FOR FKL AND DUJ THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. THIS WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHERN TERMINAL OF MGW BY 22Z-23Z. VFR WEATHER RETURNS AFTER THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5KTS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY. DID INTRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT ZZV AND MGW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 051805 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR NORTH KEEPS MOISTURE SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF BETTER MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA. POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT. REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCOMING. STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW. WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT. WITH POSITION OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 12Z NCEP GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION. SBCAPE VALUES SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER 70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED. SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1. WITH ALL THAT INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST MEASURABLE RAINFALL. BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION. POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK. PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED ECMWF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING FUTURE TRENDS. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 071417 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1017 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1010 AM...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW SHRA POP UP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...DRIVEN BY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA INTO EARLY MORNING AS THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. KEPT AREAS NEAR PIT AND EAST DRY AS MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST AS WELL WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...GIVEN EXPECTED PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...POSSIBLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AROUND 13K FEET... AND RECENT RAINFALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER...BUT WITH SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR PROGGED ANY WELL ORGANIZED STORMS COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SAW HEAVIER RAIN MONDAY...AND WILL INCLUDE AN HWO MENTION FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED GFS MOS NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL OH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN NW DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST RAW GFS AND GRIDDED GFS MOS NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. DAILY CHANCE POPS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCT MID DECK OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND OVER 10 KTS MID MORNING. TIMING OF FRONT SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH BULK OF SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING PORTS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z. BEFORE THEN GENERAL VFR AFTER ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG LIFTS. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 071859 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 259 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FRONT IS CUTTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NW OHIO AT THIS TIME. MOST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND FLOPPING IT OVER CLOSE TO THE MASON/DIXON LINE AS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. EXPECT CONTINUED BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND THIS EVENING...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ARRIVING BY 23Z IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE CERTAINLY APPROPRIATE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AS WELL AS PWAT VALUES AROUND 2+ INCHES AND DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON OVERNIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK THAT WE MAY SEE SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST CONCERNED IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM PIT ON SOUTH...AND WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA THROUGH 15Z. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT THINK THAT LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUTHEAST OHIO HAS BEEN A BIT DRIER AND DID NOT GO AS EXTENSIVE ON THE WATCH THERE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL OH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WAVE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN NW DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST RAW GFS AND GRIDDED GFS MOS NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST IN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. DAILY CHANCE POPS CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SW WINDS FROM 10-20 KNOTS. SPOTTY SHRA AND A COUPLE TSRA MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT A TERMINAL...BUT CHANCES/DURATION TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AHEAD OF A FRONT AFTER 23Z OR SO NEAR ZZV...TO AROUND 01Z AT PIT...AND 04Z AT MGW. EXPECTING GENERALIZED MVFR WHEN THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENING...AND TRIED TO TIME SOME IFR TEMPO CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN AS WELL. EXPECTING MOST TERMINALS TO DROP TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FROPA. PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASES BY 12Z AS FRONT HANGS UP NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE...BUT EXPECT ONLY VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MIDDAY. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 121837 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 237 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS WE COMMENCE THE NEW WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DOWNPOURS IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR MID JULY. AS WE PROGRESS TO LATE WEEK...LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST CROSSING THROUGH WESTERN PA. STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN H8 AND H6 WHICH WON'T SATURATED UNTIL 21Z ACCORDING TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. WITH THAT...UPSTREAM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER OHIO HAVE TRENDED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AS THIS LINE PROGRESSES EAST...EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN THEN PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THIS EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-79. A BREAK IN THE ACTION MOST OF MONDAY AS WE AWAIT YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY NOT ALLOWING ATMOSPHERE TO GET TOO CRAZY WITH THERMODYNAMICS. GREATEST MUCAPES RESIDE OVER WESTERN AREAS...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. A GOOD PART OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND EXISTING FORECAST AND GRIDDED BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE INITIAL PART OF THE SHORT TERM. VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY DISPLAYED BY THE NCEP SUITE. ONE THING THAT IS COMMON...ATMOSPHERE IS GOING TO BE PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FINALLY ECLIPSE 10KFT...WHILE PWATS APPROACH TWO INCHES...AND STEERING FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. THESE NUMBERS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING. GIVEN REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING SINCE THE GROUND IS SO MOIST. THE CORRIDOR FROM ZANESVILLE TO MORGANTOWN AND POINTS SOUTH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH WATER PER AXIS OF MID LEVEL JET. THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL TUESDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...BELIEVE ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF PRECIP MENTION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD FINALLY SUPPRESS ANY WET WEATHER SOUTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT MAKE IT HARD TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN OF A SOUTHWESTERN H5 RIDGE AND NORTHEASTERN H5 TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH THE JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AMID A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE H5 HEIGHTS BUILDING /NEAR 591DM/ NEXT WEEKEND WE STILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BACK WARMER WITH MAX T IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NRN WILL AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF PA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GETTING INTO THE 60S...SAVE FOR THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. THE MID LEVEL LAYER IS LIMITING AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...AND RESULTING IN HIGH BASED CEILINGS FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT...MANY TERMINALS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO MVFR AS A MID LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY CROSSES SPREADING SHOWERS. .OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 130855 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 455 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS WE COMMENCE THE NEW WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DOWNPOURS IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR MID JULY. AS WE PROGRESS TO LATE WEEK...LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MID-LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLIER IS PULLING AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WANES. AXIS OF REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS BISECTING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST IS BEST REPRESENTED BY FOLLOWING THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBILITY THIS MORNING ALONG THIS AXIS...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY TO START THE DAY. AS THE WAVE PULLS AWAY...THE REMNANT MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. THE 11-3.9 IR CHANNEL REVEALS A LAYER OF LOW- LEVEL CLOUDS THAT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO INCLUDING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS HAS MANIFESTED IN LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER OUR EASTERN FLANK THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL SUITE HAS THIS AREA DIURNALLY FLARING UP WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES...MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AND COOL MID-LEVELS GENERATES INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE OF 500-1000J/KG CAPE. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH 500MB WILL LIMIT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD PULSE UP AND DOWN QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN BETWEEN WAVES. A MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN CHECK AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...DIRECTED BY THE MEAN FLOW...BUT AT LEAST SOME FORCING WILL PEEL OFF AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. NAM AND SREF SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ONCE THAT CAP IS BROKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT CAPE EXISTS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED...AS NAILING DOWN TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES CAN BE MORE THAN DIFFICULT. STILL THINK THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE COMES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF BEGINS ITS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATE THIS EVENING THE HEAVY RAIN VARIABLES BEGIN TO IMPRESS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING NORTH OF 2"...WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS GREATER THAN 11KFT...AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE LAST THREE DAYS STAYING RELATIVELY DRY...BUT EFFICIENCY OF STORMS TONIGHT COULD CHANGE THINGS QUICKLY. TAX && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH IN THE MODELS...AND HAVE HIGH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND ARE NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH THE MAIN JET AXIS REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIE IN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA THOUGH...WITH PWAT STILL IN THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF UP TO 12K FEET. CONTINUED WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD ALSO MEAN SLOW- MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. WPC AGREES...AND HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL EXPAND HWO HEAVY RAIN AREA...AND WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY TO SEE IF AREAS MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW. H500 WAVE AXIS PULLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. SYSTEM PROGRESSION SLOWS A LITTLE BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE MIDATLANTIC ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOISTURE HANGING BACK...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DRAMATICALLY DRIER AIRMASS SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A NEEDED PAUSE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR JUST A TOUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH CURRENTLY ARE JUST ABOUT AT THEIR YEARLY CLIMATOLOGIC MAXIMUM. CL && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... H500 RIDGING WILL FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...CENTERED GENERALLY AROUND TEXAS...WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. OUR DRY INTERLUDE ENDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. RISING H500 HEIGHTS BY SUNDAY MAY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A CHANCE OF AT LEAST DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S COMMON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CL && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A PASSING WAVE MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NON-ZERO. EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST COULD LEAD TO VISIBILITIE DROPS TO MVFR WITH LIGHT FOG. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS MONDAY UNTIL STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WESTERN PART OF CWA SPAWNING TSRA'S TOWARD EVENING. TAX .OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 060810 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 410 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING RAIN MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY INITIALLY BEFORE IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK...WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM/GFS AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE IDEA THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF I-70. GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED...WITH LOW LEVEL EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW HELPING TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT POP GRADIENT FROM PIT ON SOUTH...WITH CATEGORICAL VALUES RIGHT ALONG THE CWA BORDER. QPF WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...TAPERING OFF TO NIL FROM PIT ON NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS IN HEAVIER SHRA FROM ZZV TO MGW...AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FROM 10-12K FEET MAY PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL TOP OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE PULLS EAST. ANY REMAINING SHRA AT 12Z WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF LBE. THE ENTIRE EVENT NORTH OF PIT WILL SIMPLY BE MARKED BY MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. INTERESTING SOUTH TO NORTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE UP NORTH. A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PLUS MOSGUIDE WILL WORK. LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF IS WELL EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION HOLDS INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. 00Z NAM/GFS FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHUNTING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD A DEEPER TROF AND CLOSED SURFACE LOW...SLOWING THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT. THIS UPDATE FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...THUS KEEPING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES STAYING WELL TO OUR NORTH...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY STILL LOOK DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. THE NEXT REAL ORGANIZED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. TAX && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXARKANA WILL RETROGRADE EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROF TO SINK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WELL...THUS A LESS DETERMINISTIC APPROACH WAS UTILIZED HANDLING PRECIPITATION OVER THIS TIME. A COOL AND DRY TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TAX && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH MAINLY CIRRUS. CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING AT FKL/DUJ. MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF PIT...WITH LOWER CIGS BUT STILL VFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. ZZV/MGW WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CIGS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS WELL BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 102347 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 647 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A SATURDAY WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VLY REGION BY FRI MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING WELL N. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT/FRI MORNING AS LOW LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES WITH THE PASSING WAVE. PTCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE S OF PIT WHERE A THICKER CLOUD DEPTH IS PROGGED. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CWA GETS INTO A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BEHIND WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORCING WILL BE MARGINAL...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT ON NORTH. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW-END CHANCE RANGE. THE MOISTURE FEED GETS PUSHED NORTH AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...LEAVING US WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AFTER THE SHOWERS END. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON ITS OWN. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDS PLUS H850 TEMPS IN THE 11-13C RANGE...WHICH WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE CLIMO MAXIMUM...WILL LIKELY PUSH MANY LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE LEVEL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED THIS WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL RUN INTO THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A BIT SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE MODIFIED GRIDS TO THIS THINKING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WITH THE STRONGER FLOW AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FEED STAYING TO OUR WEST. THAT SAID...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MONDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE TUESDAY APPEARS DRY WITH A RIDGING PATTERN RETURNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP BY 09Z AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST. EXPECTING MOST CIGS TO DROP BACK TO IFR FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. .OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR PITTSBURGH DECEMBER 11TH 66 IN 2009 DECEMBER 12TH 65 IN 2007 DECEMBER 13TH 71 IN 1901 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 110222 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 922 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A SATURDAY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION BY MORNING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT/FRI MORNING AS LOW LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES WITH THE PASSING WAVE. PTCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT EARLY FRI WHERE A THICKER CLOUD DEPTH IS PROGGED. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MORE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRECLUDES DECOUPLING...WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FRI. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CWA GETS INTO A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BEHIND WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORCING WILL BE MARGINAL...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT ON NORTH. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW-END CHANCE RANGE. THE MOISTURE FEED GETS PUSHED NORTH AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...LEAVING US WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AFTER THE SHOWERS END. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON ITS OWN. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDS PLUS H850 TEMPS IN THE 11-13C RANGE...WHICH WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE CLIMO MAXIMUM...WILL LIKELY PUSH MANY LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE LEVEL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED THIS WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL RUN INTO THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A BIT SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE MODIFIED GRIDS TO THIS THINKING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WITH THE STRONGER FLOW AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FEED STAYING TO OUR WEST. THAT SAID...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MONDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE TUESDAY APPEARS DRY WITH A RIDGING PATTERN RETURNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP BY 09Z AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST. EXPECTING MOST CIGS TO DROP BACK TO IFR FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. .OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR PITTSBURGH DECEMBER 11TH 66 IN 2009 DECEMBER 12TH 65 IN 2007 DECEMBER 13TH 71 IN 1901 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 110515 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1215 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A SATURDAY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION BY MORNING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT/FRI MORNING AS LOW LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES WITH THE PASSING WAVE. PTCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT EARLY FRI WHERE A THICKER CLOUD DEPTH IS PROGGED. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MORE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRECLUDES DECOUPLING...WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FRI. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CWA GETS INTO A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BEHIND WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORCING WILL BE MARGINAL...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT ON NORTH. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW-END CHANCE RANGE. THE MOISTURE FEED GETS PUSHED NORTH AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...LEAVING US WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AFTER THE SHOWERS END. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON ITS OWN. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDS PLUS H850 TEMPS IN THE 11-13C RANGE...WHICH WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE CLIMO MAXIMUM...WILL LIKELY PUSH MANY LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE LEVEL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED THIS WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL RUN INTO THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A BIT SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE MODIFIED GRIDS TO THIS THINKING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WITH THE STRONGER FLOW AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FEED STAYING TO OUR WEST. THAT SAID...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MONDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE TUESDAY APPEARS DRY WITH A RIDGING PATTERN RETURNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP BY 09Z OR 10Z AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST. EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTIONS LOOK TO BE FROM MGW TO LBE TO DUJ...WHERE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL PORTS. .OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT...AND AGAIN MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR PITTSBURGH DECEMBER 11TH 66 IN 2009 DECEMBER 12TH 65 IN 2007 DECEMBER 13TH 71 IN 1901 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 131529 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1129 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAR EAST CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DIVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO. RADAR TRENDS AND NEWEST MODELS SHOWING BULK OF SYSTEM STAYING WEST ACROSS OHIO AND INDIANA. STILL EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST BUT HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT AS TRENDS AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND WEST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH IN THE MODELS...AND HAVE HIGH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND ARE NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH THE MAIN JET AXIS REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIE IN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA THOUGH...WITH PWAT STILL IN THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF UP TO 12K FEET. CONTINUED WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD ALSO MEAN SLOW- MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. WPC AGREES...AND HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL EXPAND HWO HEAVY RAIN AREA...AND WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY TO SEE IF AREAS MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW. H500 WAVE AXIS PULLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. SYSTEM PROGRESSION SLOWS A LITTLE BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE MIDATLANTIC ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOISTURE HANGING BACK...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A DRAMATICALLY DRIER AIRMASS SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A NEEDED PAUSE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR JUST A TOUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WHICH CURRENTLY ARE JUST ABOUT AT THEIR YEARLY CLIMATOLOGIC MAXIMUM. CL && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... H500 RIDGING WILL FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...CENTERED GENERALLY AROUND TEXAS...WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. OUR DRY INTERLUDE ENDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. RISING H500 HEIGHTS BY SUNDAY MAY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A CHANCE OF AT LEAST DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S COMMON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CL && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS MORNING IS POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. DEEPER MOISTURE A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF PIT. INCLUDING VCTS FOR ALL LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS WELL MOISTENED. TAX .OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 171817 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 217 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AS WELL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... LINE OF SHRA/TSRA FORMED UP IN SOUTHERN OHIO ON WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT. ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR CWA...WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE HOSTILE TO MAINTENANCE DUE TO LOWER CAPE. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO FORM ONCE CURRENT LINE WEAKENS. BUT OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...CHANCE POPS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE OVERALL SPARSE COVERAGE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESUME ITS MARCH TO THE NORTH...AND DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO APPROACH 70. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CAN CLEAR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SINK TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF REFIRING OF SHRA/TSRA...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST. NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF...AND IN FACT MIDLEVEL RIDING STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY. SO CHANCE POPS WILL WORK ONCE AGAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES TOUCHING 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. CL && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF SHORTY AFTER DUSK OWING TO A PARTLY CLOUDY BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SAVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE 60S SHALL BE COMMON. SAME STORY DIFFERENT DAY SUNDAY WITH A SUMMER LIKE FEEL TO THE WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN OR SURPASS 90 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWESTERN PA. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THE 100-105F NEEDED. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AT ANYTIME. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES NORTH OF 7CKM-1. THE LACK OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM AND 0-3KM LESS THAN 35KTS WILL PROHIBIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. PWATS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON GOING FROM 1.3 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO TWO INCHES COME EVENING. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ON THE RISE AS WELL CLIMBING ABOVE 10KFT BY SUNSET. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE LONE SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES MONDAY MORNING. 12Z NCEP CHAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT PASSES. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF AN AREA GETS HIT HARD OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE ADJUSTED ECMWF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND EXISTING FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ZONAL FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS A LARGE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR HUMIIDTY TO RETURN. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AGAIN BY THURSDAY. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING AND NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS OF NOW THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESIDE TO OUR NORTH KEEPING MOST OF THE WEATHER THERE. WPC TEMPERATURES WERE USED FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS AT MOST TIMES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO MAY DROP ZZV TO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...AND OTHER LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT COULD SEE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL WANE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG MAY BE SEEN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN BEFOREHAND. VFR AFTER 13-14Z SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA STARTING TO BUBBLE UP AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY... PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 200127 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 927 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT GENERAL LULL IN ACTIVITY OVER CWA...PUSHING OFF INCREASE IN COVERAGE AN HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT LINE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OHIO TO LOSE A LITTLE STRENGTH AS THEY APPROACH AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING PWAT AND IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. STILL DO NOT FORESEE THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDING AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING DUE TO A RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT A CONCERN TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FORECASTED...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. THE DRY SLOW WILL RUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND MAY ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO HALT STRONG CONVECTION AND LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES BY THE EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER TRENDS FROM MODELS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO PROVIDE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS IN A LESS HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SATL SHOWS CU DISSIPATING AND SHRA/-TSRA THE SAME. MAY BE SOME LIGHT BR ACROSS REGION LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. NEXT, A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU 12-21Z THU BRINGING -SHRA WITH A FEW TSRA ALONG THE NORTH. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING BR. MONDAY, A WEAK FRONT COULD TRIGGER A SHRA. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 281149 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 749 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Mix of clouds and sun with a few scattered morning showers. Showers will end by this afternoon and clouds will decrease. Dry, hot weather for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Models are advertising scattered showers continuing through much of the morning hours in the northwest flow aloft. The coverage, which is mainly over the eastern half of the region, may be overdone a bit, as heights rises will ensue by late morning. Will still leave in a mention of scattered showers through parts of the area during the morning hours. Clouds will slowly decrease from west to east during the morning hours. Models soundings are indicating that a thin layer of moisture will hold on over the eastern half of the region through the afternoon hours. This layer of moisture is not evacuated until strong height rises commence later in the afternoon and mid-level winds slowly shift to the north. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A well-advertised pattern transition will begin in ernest on Friday. A strong upper ridge will build in from the west, bringing with it a much warmer airmass. Temperatures Friday will approach 90 and surpass that mark on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The H5 ridge center will cross the region Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will again push into the 90s across most of the area. Latest ensemble data is showing main ridge axis drifting just east of the region on Monday, but then retrograding westward and expanding Tuesday and Wednesday. If this ridge evolution comes to fruition, it would be very difficult to get much precipitation with such strong subsidence. This will also keep temperatures well above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Unusual fall-like weather pattern over the area today in advance of heat ridge that will dominate the region over the weekend. Cool, moist post-frontal airmass has overspread the area overnight with a pronounced cross-Lake Erie fetch and a lingering surface trough aiding in the development of widespread low stratus. A few showers will continue ahead of surface troughing FKL-DUJ, but otherwise the main story will be widespread MVFR ceilings (locally LIFR from FKL-DUJ and points north) that will persist an unusually long time for late June. A second area of IFR ceilings along the southern and western periphery of the cloud shield is expected to persist this morning as well ZZV-MGW. Cloud thickness per GOES-16 imagery suggests that even strong late June sun will take a good number of hours for stratus to lift and ultimately mix out. Model guidance is quite variant on when this will occur, but given Lake Erie fetch and cyclonic low level flow present, will lean toward the conservative side which makes the most significant ceiling improvements during the mid afternoon. Rapid clearing should occur during the 18-00Z time frame, but calm winds and a moist boundary layer, especially after recent heavy rainfall, gives moderate to high confidence in MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions (fog) late tonight. OUTLOOK... Smooth conditions and unlimited visibility/ceilings expected once fog burns off Friday, continuing through Monday, with sprawling heat ridge in place. Some isolated restrictions possible late Monday across western terminals due to afternoon thunderstorms. Bookbinder && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 281458 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1058 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Shower chances will diminish as high pressure builds overhead. High pressure will then maintain hot and dry conditions through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Scattered showers will continue in northwest flow aloft for a few more hours until the shortwave trough departs to the east and is replaced with building high pressure. Dry air aloft will be mixed down even with modest surface heating, allowing for the clouds to dissipate as well. This should lend to overall improvement for the latter half of the day with temperatures only a touch below seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A well-advertised pattern transition will begin in ernest on Friday. A strong upper ridge will build in from the west, bringing with it a much warmer airmass. Temperatures Friday will approach 90 and surpass that mark on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The H5 ridge center will cross the region Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will again push into the 90s across most of the area. Latest ensemble data is showing main ridge axis drifting just east of the region on Monday, but then retrograding westward and expanding Tuesday and Wednesday. If this ridge evolution comes to fruition, it would be very difficult to get much precipitation with such strong subsidence. This will also keep temperatures well above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few showers will continue ahead of surface troughing FKL-DUJ, but otherwise the main story will be widespread MVFR ceilings (locally LIFR from FKL-DUJ and points north) that will persist an unusually long time for late June. Cloud thickness per GOES-16 imagery suggests that even strong late June sun will take a good number of hours for stratus to lift and ultimately mix out. Model guidance is quite variant on when this will occur, but given Lake Erie fetch and cyclonic low level flow present, will lean toward the conservative side which makes the most significant ceiling improvements during the mid afternoon. Rapid clearing should occur during the 18-00Z time frame, but calm winds and a moist boundary layer, especially after recent heavy rainfall, gives moderate to high confidence in MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions (fog) late tonight. OUTLOOK... Smooth conditions and unlimited visibility/ceilings expected once fog burns off Friday, continuing through Monday, with sprawling heat ridge in place. Some isolated restrictions possible late Monday across western terminals due to afternoon thunderstorms. Bookbinder && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$  FXUS61 KPBZ 201707 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1207 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain returns this afternoon and will continue through Friday, before ending as snow Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Similar to yesterday, with the noon update brought high temperatures down a degree or two. Cloud thickness appears as if it will play a large role in temperatures today - while PIT is 41 and AGC is 46, there have been less clouds out in Latrobe where the noon temperature was 55 degrees. Still feel that 40s and 50s will be widespread, but the warm places will be determined by where high clouds aren't as thick. Previous discussion follows. 8 AM Update: 12Z PBZ sounding shows a sharp, shallow inversion (30F at Surface, 48F at 400ft). This leftover decoupled layer will quickly erode with diurnal mixing and strong southerly flow. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion.... Rain associated with a surface low will begin moving into the region from south to north this afternoon and encompass the region by sunset. Under warm air advection ahead of the surface low, temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Large trough will keep precipitation across the region into Saturday. It appears the bulk of the rain will fall tonight, with generally an 0.75 to 1 inch expected across the region. Impressive dry slot will overspread the area Friday morning, which will quickly reduce rainfall coverage and rates. A second plume of moisture will rapidly overspread the area late Friday morning and through the afternoon. Rainfall rates Friday afternoon look rather light as most of the lift will have shifted to the east. Temperatures on Friday will remain warm, although not as warm as today. Colder temperatures will begin to fill in on the back side of the exiting trough Friday night, and the speed at which cold air moves into the region may be the biggest key in just how much snowfall different locations receive. Only the highest elevations should receive snow Friday evening, but most other locations should change over to snow after midnight Friday. Another limiting factor to overall snowfall will be just how cold temperatures drop Friday night, as right now it appears temperatures will drop to just near the freezing mark, limiting overall snowfall accumulation. Upslope/lake enhanced snow will continue in the favored regions on Saturday, bringing light additional accumulation. Looking at BUFKIT soundings, snowfall efficiency will tail off late Friday night and Saturday as inversions lower and atmospheric saturation falls below the dendritic snow growth zone. Ridges and I-80 corridor look to hold onto snow showers the longest with the cold air advection and favorable wind direction. Highs Saturday dip below normal again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The pattern will remain active in the extended forecast. Snow showers should come to an end along the I-80 corridor Saturday evening, but another shortwave should bring another round of light precipitation Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Precipitation would begin as rain or a mix of rain and snow Sunday afternoon, but change to all snow Sunday night. A slight chance of rain or snow showers will be in the forecast for Christmas and Christmas night. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected for most of the day as cloud coverage increases ahead of a low pressure system. Rain will spread south to north starting mid-afternoon causing ceilings to lower as well. Most sites will become MVFR shortly after onset of precipitation...with eventual IFR by mid/late evening and persisting through the night. Outlook... MVFR to IFR restrictions expected tonight and through the weekend with periodic rain and eventual changeover to snow Saturday. Improvements not expected until early next week. Gusty winds late Friday through Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$