FXUS63 KPAH 040209 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 909 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 ON THE SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT SPANED ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ARCHED SOUTHWEST THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT 00Z SATURDAY (7 PM CDT). THE PERSISTENT CELL ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY...AND BERNIE AND HARVIELL...SOUTH OF POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI...ARE OCCURRING ALONG SHARP THERMAL GRADIENTS ALOFT. THIS IS MAINTAIN GOOD UPDRAFTS AND SOME BACK BUILDING OVER THESE AREAS. TRENDS FROM THE 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AFTER 04Z. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 12-13KFT ABOVE THE AVERAGE FREEZING LEVEL OF 12.5KFT AGL...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MODERATE LIFT WITH SLOW PROPAGATION SPEEDS HAVE MADE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SOME AREAS SAW MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY CUTOFF FURTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABLIZE OVERNIGHT. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 576DM LOW OVER NW INDIANA WAS SEEN ON WVAPOR/MODEL OVERLAY WITH A LOBE EXTENDING SW ACROSS MO/IL...HELPING TO TRIGGER HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION SRN SECTIONS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM WAS THROWN OUT FOR SAT NIGHT AS IT SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH A WEAK SRN H5 LOW...AND HOLDING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR SE COUNTIES. SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. AGAIN JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF CONVECTION S/SE COUNTIES SUNDAY WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 USED A BLEND OF THE EC/GFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A GEFS/ECENS/NAEFS BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY MORNING PERHAPS AS WELL...WITH POPS INCREASING FROM SW TO NE WITH TIME. SIGNAL FOR DECENT CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND QPF SEEMS TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT HAVING TO DEAL WITH HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN. TIMING MAY EVENTUALLY BE ADJUSTED ALONG WITH THE WINDOW OF BEST OPPORTUNITY. AFTER THAT...THE ECENS LOOKED MORE LIKE THE GEFS AND EVEN OPERATIONAL GFS...KEEPING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. POPS MUCH LOWER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AND FORECAST LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY 03Z. KCGI AND KOWB HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING TS AT THE TERMINAL. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD OR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. NO CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE...SMITH UPDATE...DRS AVIATION...DRS  FXUS63 KPAH 302006 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Paducah KY 206 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 206 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015 The channeled vorticity that aided the lift to produce the light rain and drizzle this morning is being replaced with downward motion, as the shear axis further to the north eventually shifts toward the Great Lakes. Otherwise, no precipitation is expected through Friday Night. Looking at the morning pilot reports across the WFO PAH forecast area, cloud depth was ranging from 1700-3000 feet thick. This cloud depth, combined with marginal mixing above/below the cloud deck due to radiational fluxes, will keep cloud cover in place. Any significant clearing across the WFO PAH forecast area will likely hold off until Thursday evening, with more insolation (sunshine) expected on New Year's Day. With cold air advection in place with the approaching high pressure system, temperatures will remain in the 30s the next couple of days for highs with lows in the 20s. What a difference from last week at this time!!! .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 206 pm CST WED DEC 30 2015 Above average confidence in the long term period due to good model agreement and very little to discuss. The abbreviated version of the long term forecast is dry and cool through most of the period, then slowly moderating temperatures the last couple of days. Through Monday, the combination of high pressure at the surface, broad cyclonic flow aloft, and very little moisture is expected to keep the area dry. A cold front is expected to make passage on Monday, but due to the lack of moisture, no precipitation is expected. However, this time of year in cyclonic flow aloft it is not uncommon for precipitation chances to seemingly pop up out of nowhere with time, especially with frontal passages. Beyond Monday, rising heights/weak ridging aloft and continued lack of moisture should keep our region dry through the rest of the long term period. Temperatures through Monday should be near normal, then slightly above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1122 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015 With plenty of low level moisture trapped under a strong inversion and little to no flow near the surface, generally MVFR cigs to prevail through the period. IFR cigs at KEVV/KOWB early should become MVFR early in the period. Variable winds AOB 5 knots should become north northeast after 00Z. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP  FXUS63 KPAH 101802 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 102 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 102 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 Upper ridge will remain centered off the east coast, with weak energy aloft moving across the area, resulting in mainly diurnally enhanced convection given weak mid level support and lack of any surface features (weak return flow). Will have PoPs peak in the afternoon, then fade in the evening and overnight. It will be rather warm and humid with dew points up into the 70s again, with highs upper 80s to lower 90s. Used a model blend for the weather, slightly more weight to the ECMWF and NAM. MOS and persistence used for temps. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 GFS and ECMWF have slowed down the approaching cold front Friday night into Saturday, now bringing it into our northwest counties by around 00z Sunday. This is about 6 hours slower than previous runs. Canadian still shows the front bisecting the PAH forecast area by 18z Saturday. All the models hang up the front across our region into Sunday and early Monday, then show the front making some southeastern progress into Monday night and Tuesday. Leaning toward the slower GFS/ECMWF solutions, shower and thunderstorm chances will be spreading southeast Friday night, with good chance to likely pops for our west and northwest counties, to slight chances southeast. On Saturday, the focus for better thunderstorm chances will continue to be across our west and northwest counties, so went with likely pops in these areas, with good chances across the rest of our region. With the front across the region the rest of the weekend, went with good chance to likely pops across the entire PAH forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. For Sunday night into Monday, with some question as to where the front will be, kept probabilities in the chance category for now. With front sliding a little farther southeast Monday night and Tuesday, focused the better chances for showers and storms across our south/southeast counties. Overnight low temperatures will remain above seasonal normals Friday night and Saturday night, but high temperatures through the weekend will be a little below normal with additional cloud cover and precipitation. Winds shifting to the north late in the weekend will keep temperatures near to below normal into early next week with dew points hovering in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 As a band of moisture surges westward into the region this afternoon, scattered showers and tstms will be most common east of the MS River, with brief vsby reductions to IFR probable during the afternoon. Meanwhile, cloud cover will be quite variable, but most widespread over the eastern two-thirds of the region today. Outside tstm activity, winds will remain light, and generally out of the southeast today, calm overnight, and generally out of the south Thursday morning. MVFR fog will be likely late in the night, with some terminals dipping into IFR. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ AVIATION...DB  FXUS63 KPAH 102030 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 330 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 A low level convergence zone helped to enhance a band of tropical moisture today, which contributed to scattered shower and tstm activity east of the MS River. Isolated locations in the Evansville tri-state area experienced very heavy rain amounts. These heavy rain amounts could be a harbinger to what is to come in the next several days, if another convergence zone sets up. At this time, there is not a strong indication that this will occur through Friday, but this scenario will have to be watched. At a minimum, we will have high PWATs in place. Through Thursday night, convective activity will show a noticeably diurnal pattern as tropical moisture streams in from a mid level low in the Deep South. The effects of an approaching surface cold front will start to be felt late Friday/Friday night, as PoPs begin to ramp up from the northwest. However, the southern Pennyrile region may not receive any rain Friday night. Dewpoints in the middle to even upper 70s at times, combined with highs around 90, will yield heat indices of 100 to 105 for much of the PAH forecast area Thursday and Friday afternoons. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 Main issue this period is heavy rain. Tropical system, currently over the northern Gulf, is forecast to move up or just west of the Mississippi river starting Saturday. At the same time a weak upper level trough will gradually bring a front southward into the Midwest. The issue is with the details, which is not surprising this far out. GFS and GEFS suggest the front will be right along the Ohio River by 18Z Sunday. Things really get complicated after that as the GFS wants to develop a low along the front and move it northeast toward southern Missouri on Monday which would push the front northward. The GEFS is not as strong with the surface low and thus the front remains along the Ohio River. The location of the front will have big implications on where the heavy rain will fall. Little doubt on the heavy rain with the tropical influence, freezing levels close to 15kft and PWs well over 2 inches in most areas. The heavy rain is expected to be along and just north of the front. The current thinking is that the heaviest rainfall totals will be along the Ohio River. But this could easily change as we get closer to the event. Will issue an ESF. Will be confident in the heavy rain, but less so on the location. && .AVIATION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 As a band of moisture continues to surge westward through the region today, scattered showers and tstms will be most common east of the MS River, with brief vsby reductions to IFR probable until near sunset if one develops across a terminal. Meanwhile, cloud cover will be quite variable, but most widespread over the eastern two-thirds of the region during the daylight hours. Outside tstm activity, winds will remain light, and generally out of the southeast today, calm overnight, and generally out of the south Thursday morning. MVFR fog will be likely late in the night, with some terminals dipping into IFR, especially where pcpn recently occurred. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...PS AVIATION...DB  FXUS63 KPAH 290417 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1017 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Post convective 30-40 knots southwest flow from 2-5kft agl showing up in KPAH VAD wind profile. This continues to advect moisture along the gradient of a low level ridge axis. This has generated a band of stratus streatching along the Southeast Missouri Foothills into Southwest Illinois. The model suite is finally picking up on this cloud cover and the forecast has been updated to reflect this change. The GOES-E 4km cloud thickness, VFR to LIFR probability images are depicting this area well. Anticipate this area will remain in place overnight, gradually lifting by 14z Tuesday. UPDATE Issued at 557 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Allowing the remaining wind advisory for West Kentucky to expire as scheduled at 6 pm CST. The convective line and associated sustained wind/wind gust potential will have moved east of the WFO PAH forecast area by 6 pm CST. A wake high building northeast across the area within an hour after the passage of the convective line will keep south-southeast winds in the 20 to 30 mph range, with a complimentary increase on the western side of the high over Southeast Missouri. Adjusted winds within the last 45 minutes to account for the increase in winds. They should remain below wind advisory criteria. The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Large area of moderate rains producing storm totals thus far on the order of 2 to 2.5 inches over southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois will be coming to an end late in the day. Amounts have been less the farther east one heads, but will continue to rise through the early evening before all ends over the Pennyrile of western KY by around 8 or 9 PM. Will be fairly rapid drying behind this system overnight. Temperatures will actually warm nicely on Tuesday with a return to some periods of sunshine and southerly breezes around 10 mph. Forecast confidence decreases Tue night through as deterministic models diverge on the track of a southern stream system across the southeastern United States. The ECMWF seems by far to be the farthest north and west, with additional light rain tracking well north into wrn KY all the way up to the Ohio River. GFS/Canadian agree on farther south/east track and keep most of the region rainfree. Out of respect for the EC...will bring some chancy POPs back into western KY Tue night, but main message is no real impact expected from this one. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the system on Wed/Wed night as westerly winds gust over 20 MPH in many locations. Temps will be back down into the 30s by late Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Decent confidence in the first part of the long term period however, we are still having model discrepancies over the weekend. On Thursday, our region will be on the south side of a deep upper level low centered over southeastern Canada and into the Great Lakes. This low will continue to push eastward, which will help keep things rather cool across the area for the last few days of the work week. High pressure will eventually build into the area which will mean dry weather to end out the week. Plenty of low level moisture rotating around the sfc low in the eastern Great Lakes will mean more cloudiness though, especially in our northern and eastern sections. While models start off pretty consistent with the upper level pattern to start out the weekend, they diverge fairly quickly. Models are in agreement that a closed upper level low will develop over the southwestern U.S. on Friday. How this system evolves as it slides eastward becomes a problem. The GFS/GEFS/Canadian continue to indicate a split flow pattern with a shortwave trough racing east across the Plains and into our region by Saturday night/early Sunday and the closed upper low shifts south and eventually lifts northeast into TX and impacting our area by Monday night. So that provides us two opportunities for precipitation, with the first being fairly light. The ECMWF does not indicate this split flow pattern and simply brings an upper trough across the central Plains Friday night into Saturday night. Strong cyclogenesis develops over the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday. This sfc low shifts northward/northeastward bringing us precipitation Saturday night through Sunday night. So even though there continues to be discrepancies in the models, the next chance for precipitation could arrive Saturday night but would be light so POPs will be only slights. However, the timing of when the main closed low/upper trough swings through remains a problem...so POPs for Sunday will continue to be low but not nonexistent. Still plenty of time for things to stabilize. High temperatures should generally remain in the 40s for the most part. A few locations could reach close to 50 degrees during the extended period. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 557 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 The fine line has cleared the area, but the bubble high pressure behind it has created some nice southeast winds in its wake. Figure on some 15-20kts southeast flow for a few hours beginning near the back edge of the precipitation shield which should be clearing KPAH at 00Z. With west southwest winds off the surface, threw in LLWS until the surface winds veer back to southwest later this evening. There has been pretty nice improvement to VFR conditions for the most part behind the main convective line, but there are signs of low clouds behind the upper cloud shield over southeast Missouri and southward into eastern Arkansas. Once the winds veer to southwest, we should be advecting better low-level moisture to the region, which the GFS and NAM hit hard for IFR or lower fog and/or low clouds. Took each site to IFR levels as a first guess mainly overnight into Tuesday morning. South winds should pick back up by late morning and help with the clearing process. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...DRS  FXUS63 KPAH 261724 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Forecast confidence in the near term is higher than average with good model agreement in the overall synoptic pattern and a lack of significant weather impacts. Seasonably cold weather will prevail through late week with the region positioned between an upper level low over eastern Canada and an upper level high off the U.S. West Coast. Cyclonic northerly flow on the back side of the Canadian low will steer a couple minor impulses of energy across the area during the period. While a few snow flurries or sprinkles cannot be ruled out, especially this morning, no measurable precipitation is expected. The main impact through the period will be lingering low clouds, which will encompass much of the area today and tonight. While some erosion in the cloud cover from the west is expected by Friday, clouds will likely be stubborn to completely clear. Expect more clouds in the vicinity of the Wabash River Valley with a trend towards more sunshine further west near the Missouri Ozarks. Highs through Saturday should range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Lows are forecast in the mid to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The 00Z models are in decent agreement in the overall pattern through the extended. We will begin and generally stay in northwest flow aloft. This will keep temperatures at or below normal through most of the period. The primary exception will be on Tuesday when the low-level flow backs to westerly allowing for a quick warm up into he lower 50s over much of the region. A cold front will move through in the afternoon and take us back to more seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week. The primary window for precipitation is late Saturday night through Sunday night. The 00Z GFS is a bit wet compared to the nearly dry ECMWF and CMC late Saturday night and through the day Sunday, but it then joins the ECMWF and CMC in producing a band of light QPF over the eastern half of the region Sunday evening. It is unrealistic to expect the models to have a good handle on these fast moving disturbances, but for now we will take advantage of this agreement and emphasize Sunday evening for any light snow accumulations. Temperatures aloft will definitely be supportive of snow, and surface temperatures will not be warm enough to melt it. A swath of a half inch or just a bit more is possible over the eastern half of the area Sunday evening. It should be noted that this is not a high confidence situation. Run to run consistency is likely to be difficult to get. While accumulations are limited to Sunday evening, there will be small PoPs over the eastern half of the area through the day Sunday. Sunday may be more of a flurry or sprinkle event. Regardless, temperatures should climb above freezing enough throughout the area to keep any snow from accumulating. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 With mixing in the sub-cloud layer and weakening cold air advection in placed across the WFO PAH TAF locations, there will still be still be a persistant overcast layer through at least the first 12-18 hours of the 18z Thursday forecast period, given estimated cloud thickness in excess of 2kft. The NAM-WRF and GFS suggested that ceilings would remain in the upper MVFR category, but indications are that most ceilings will remain in the lower VFR category for the majority of the forecast period. There may be an isolated snow flurry or sprinkle near the vicinity of the KEVV and KOWB, but the probability is too low to mention at this time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...Smith  FXUS63 KPAH 262029 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 229 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 There is still a little seeder-feeder action going on across parts of Southeast Illinois/Southwest Indiana/Northwest Kentucky this afternoon, so will leave a mention of snow flurries in this area for the remainder of today. The Evansville IN airport reported some brief snow flurries earlier today. With cloud layers at or greater than 1.5kft thick and weakening cold air advection in place, anticipate cloud cover will remain across most of the region overnight. Erosion of cloud cover from the west and southwest will occur as warm air advection builds into the area on Friday. Unfortunately, points along and east of the Mississippi River will slow to clear, if at all, as more moisture and a reinforcing shot of cold air pushes across the this area. At this point, any mention of snow flurries would be premature, given the low probability of the event. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The signal continues to persist for sharpening of the western limb of the eastern U.S. trough Saturday into Sunday. Timing seems to wobble + or - 3 hours from Sunday afternoon as the main precipitation period. Thicknesses still suggest that eastern sections of Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky will see enough sharpening lift, deeper moisture through the preferred ice nucleation zone, and residence time to support a least a dusting of snowfall. However, given the expected coverage and duration, impacts should be limited and short duration given temperatures, etc. there is above average confidence with the development and general timing of this mixed precipitation event. There is still a struggle with the Tuesday night to Wednesday time period, as medium range models have some difficulty in the placement of marginal precipitation associated with the next shortwave rotating southward from the upper midwest late Monday and early Tuesday. The ECMWF is the driest and is further north with the shortwave energy, followed by the Canadian, and the wetter GFS. This moisture has been wavering between late Tuesday through late Wednesday the last few runs, so cannot totally rule it out at this time. So, for now, will keep a mention of rain/wintry mix in place for Tuesday night. However, there is much lower forecast confidence of its occurrence at this time. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 With mixing in the sub-cloud layer and weakening cold air advection in placed across the WFO PAH TAF locations, there will still be still be a persistent overcast layer through at least the first 12-18 hours of the 18z Thursday forecast period, given estimated cloud thickness in excess of 2kft. The NAM-WRF and GFS suggested that ceilings would remain in the upper MVFR category, but indications are that most ceilings will remain in the lower VFR category for the majority of the forecast period. There may be an isolated snow flurry or sprinkle near the vicinity of the KEVV and KOWB, but the probability is too low to mention at this time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...Smith  FXUS63 KPAH 121907 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Main forecast challenges will be the departure of the opaque cloud cover from the WFO PAH forecast area and the timing of the precipitation associated with the approach of the next cold front into the area late Saturday night (early Sunday morning). Isentropic lift and forcing remain marginal across the area, especially east of the surface ridge axis which extends from the Mississippi River northeast into Southwest Indiana. Even at 1 pm CDT, cloud thickness over parts of southern IL and parts of Southwest Indiana remain in excess of 1500 ft. Warm air advection tonight and Friday should continue to erode the cloud layer from above and below as the ridge axis slowly moves east. Given the weak advection, there may still be some cloudiness, albeit not 100 percent coverage, across the west Kentucky Pennyrile region and southwest Indiana, this evening. Where skies remain clear over southeast Missouri, could see some localized fog development overnight, even with very weak warm advection (most significant at and above the boundary layer). The influence of the ridge axis will likely yield to some diurnal cumulus cloud development early on Friday, before clearing out for the remainder of the day. Utilized the short range ensemble guidance (SREF) to address the timing, coverage, and intensity of rain late Saturday along and ahead of the approaching cold front. Limited instability aloft mitigated any differential mention of thunderstorms through Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 The only real weather maker in the long term period will be a frontal passage early Sunday which will bring our only chance for rain. Models have definitely sped up the timing of this front and associated rainfall. At 12Z Sunday, the NAM/GFS show the actual cold front in our far eastern counties with most of the precipitation post frontal. The ECMWF and Canadian indicate the front a bit further west at that time. The speed difference between models of the aforementioned front does not seem to have much affect on the forecast, as the best chances for rain for our area will still come between 12Z-18Z Sunday. Whatever precipitation is left Sunday afternoon, will be across parts of west KY. Not sure how much thunder will be involved as most of the instability will be tied to the front and directly behind the front. Will need to make changes to our going POP forecast however in order account for the more rapid arrival and departure of the precipitation. Will likely have to take rain chances out for Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky depending on how fast the cooler air filters into the area. We may be dealing with a non diurnal trend. Model guidance is suggesting falling temperatures through the morning hours so our high will likely be first thing in the morning. By late Sunday afternoon, a large 1028-1030mb surface high will be situated over Kansas and Oklahoma. This sfc high will start migrating eastward Sunday night and into Monday, really helping to dry things out locally. The center of this sfc high pressure system will be overhead by late Monday night into Tuesday morning. With clear skies and calm winds, Monday night into Tuesday morning should be our coldest, with lows dropping into the lower to mid 40s. High pressure will dominate for the rest of the week, which will aid in keeping any chances for precipitation at bay. Temperatures will remain in the 70s for highs and upper 40s to lower 50s for lows from Tuesday and beyond. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 The trend of MVFR ceilings is maintained through 00z Friday for KCGI and KPAH and for the KEVV and KOWB TAF locations for the entire forecast period (until 18z Friday). Although not explicitly suggested in the model guidance, diurnal thermal stratification in the boundary layer, in the absence of significant mixing, will develop localized visibility restrictions in the 1-3 nm range for the KCGI and KPAH TAF sites in the 06z-13z Friday time frame. The RAP model guidance appears to have the most reasonable solution for the evolution and departure of the low ceilings as compared to METAR and PIREP observations. The speed and intensity of warm air advection will determine the overall impact and influence of the departing surface ridge axis oriented northeast to southwest across the area. Should the process accelerate more rapid clearing may take place at KCGI and KPAH this evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...Smith  FXUS63 KPAH 112152 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 352 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 338 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A dry cold front was making its way southeast across Missouri this afternoon. Northwest winds were gusting to around 40 mph behind the front this afternoon. The front will cross the lower Ohio Valley this evening, followed by increasing northwest winds and post-frontal stratocumulus clouds. Peak wind gusts behind the front should be in the 30 to 40 mph range tonight, based on the momentum transfer algorithm in Bufkit. A few sprinkles or flurries may follow the front late tonight, especially in southwest Indiana and northwest KY. Lows will fall to around 30 early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be colder behind the front. 850 mb temps will be close to minus 10 at times, limiting surface high temps to the 30s despite ample sunshine. Winds will diminish as high pressure builds closer. The slightly higher humidity and lower winds should preclude the need for another Red Flag Warning in Missouri on Wednesday. See Fire Weather section for details. Winds will be southwest again on Wednesday ahead of another cold front. This cold front also looks to be dry. Highs on Wednesday will recover into the lower 40s in southwest IN to the lower 50s in se Missouri. This front does not look as strong as the front coming through tonight, so forecast lows Wed night will be in the lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 At the beginning of the period, a large upper level low will be north of New England with a ridge persistent over the Pacific Coast region. Unsettled NW flow aloft will continue across the nation east of the Rockies and over our area until then. A trof will move southeast across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Only a few flurries will be possible mainly in the westernmost southeast Missouri counties. Models take a different view of the weekend storm. The GFS has the trof digging into the Southern Plains over the weekend, pulling moisture north into the area in advance of an area of surface low pressure that is forecast to be over northern AR by Sunday morning. Rainfall is concentrated over the southern half of the forecast area. The ECMWF pulls that low further north into central IL along with the moisture showing very little in the way of rain anywhere in our area. The CMC is somewhere in the middle and has more of an elongated but open wave keeping the southern moisture south of the area with little moisture to the north. The official forecast has chance pops across much of west Kentucky with slight chance elsewhere from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the week and nudge a little higher to highs in the 50s over the weekend with lows staying above freezing. && .AVIATION... Issued at 338 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A quick look at frontal position at 21Z shows it is on track/poised to make passage across the terminals during the next 3 to 6 hours. We'll see VFR conditions deteriorate shortly after passage, with MVFR bases appearing, possibly going with CIGS for a short duration as winds shift to gusty northwest. The chance of pcpn reaching the ground is minimal, with very dry air above and below the roughly 2-3K FT cloud thickness. While winds continue/gusty northwest tmrw, skies should abruptly clear by late morning/into the planning period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A combination of very low rh, strong winds, and severe drought has necessitated a Red Flag Warning for the Ozark foothills through early this evening. The rh at the West Plains ASOS was 13 percent with a sustained wind of 20 mph early this afternoon. Winds will remain gusty much of the night, but rh recovery should be rather strong this evening as temps cool down behind a cold front. The lack of precip the remainder of the workweek means fire weather will still be a concern in the drought-stricken areas of the Ozark foothills. Winds will be on the gusty side, and rh will be quite low each of the next couple afternoons. The combination of winds and rh is not expected to be quite as conducive for fire spread as it was today. Therefore, the elevated fire danger will be handled in the HWO as opposed to any watches or warnings. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ098-100- 106>109. IN...None. KY...None. && $$