FXUS63 KOAX 240842 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 342 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE QUITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP OUR PART OF THE WORLD UNDER WEAK RIDGING AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES A LITTLE EAST. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL TRIGGER OFF-AND-ON EPISODES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. AT LOWER LEVELS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 850MB IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE PLAINS LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 850 DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY 10-14C FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND THIS AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE 40S THIS MORNING...BUT 60S DEW POINTS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SURGE NORTH AND BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. SO WITH MOISTURE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD...REALLY CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST...BUT DECENT MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY WITH INITIAL SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THAT WARM ADVECTION AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ONLY PRECIPITATION NOTED SO FAR WAS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...BUT SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT HIT-AND-MISS CONVECTION SPREADING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES IN OUR WEST THIS MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ROBUST. PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL COME DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND ANY UPPER IMPULSE COULD RELEASE THAT INSTABILITY. BUT NAILING DOWN THOSE IMPULSES WITH MUCH MORE THAN A DAY OR SO LEAD TIME IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. SO FORECAST WILL REFLECT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MORE LIKELY POPS COMING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE EPISODES AS WELL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLUS FREEZING LEVELS APPROACHING 13000 FT SUGGEST WARM CLOUD DEPTH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW AND WHERE THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO FINE TUNE ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE REST OF THE WEEK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS. DERGAN && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CIGS MOVING INTO THE AREA. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15G25KT BY 18Z. FOBERT && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KOAX 080833 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB ...A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 125 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 50 METERS AT 500 MB WERE NOTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DOWN INTO MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS TAKING PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS INITIALIZED 850 MB MOISTURE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN REALITY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW GENERALLY 25-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND BL CAPE VALUES UP TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES... AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING. SO STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING PCPN. 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED 850 MB DEWPOINTS REACHING 10-13 DEGREES C BY EVENING. NAM WAS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...BUT BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY AREAS JUST YET...BUT DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN. DAY SHIFT CAN LOOK AT THAT MORE LATER. CURRENT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP EWD/SEWD THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HEATING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S. FARTHER SOUTH...LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS COULD REACH AROUND 80. STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE FOR AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA. PCPN IS NOT LIKELY TO LINGER MUCH PAST 7 PM...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY INTO FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LEFT BOTH DAY PERIODS DRY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. BEST BET FOR STORMS IN THAT PERIOD WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 80S AND LOWER 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. MILLER && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL START TO IMPACT THE OFK TAF AFTER 13Z AND THEN INTO OMA/LNK AFTER 18Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA DURING THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL WILL ONLY INCLUDE SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES ATTM...BUT THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ADDED LATER WHEN TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SAT MORNING WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL 3 SITES THROUGH THE DAY. A SFC CDFNT WILL BRING IN W/NW WINDS AT OFK BY 22Z AND OMA/LNK AROUND 03Z. BOUSTEAD && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KOAX 081938 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 238 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSE LOW ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. REMNANTS OF MORNING MCS MCS WERE CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... THE COLD FRONT REMAINED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA... WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NEAR GRAND ISLAND TO CLARINDA IOWA. AS EXPECTED...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED STRONG INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL STRONGER DEVELOPMENT. IF WE AREN'T ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OVERALL DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE QPF THROUGH 06Z COULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES. THIS AREA IS ALSO WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHERE 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING JUST BELOW 2 INCHES. OVERALL THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOCALIZED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 5 TO 10 DAYS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE TRANSITION TO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WITH SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN MOVING DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH YOU GO THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN...AND AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO FAIRBURY AND BEATRICE WOULD PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL FROM THE SECOND PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE OMAHA METRO AND MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA COULD SEE SHOWERS THAT LAST NEARLY ALL DAY LONG SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY IS OVERALL LOW...AS WE HEAD THROUGH PEAK HEATING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALSO OCCURS. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN WEAK RIDGING MOVING BACK INTO OUR AREA WHILE SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE CAN OCCASIONALLY TRIGGER ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT OCCURRING. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT COULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND WARMER SOUTH. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE FLATTENED JUST A BIT BY A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS NORTH OF I80 EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY NIGHT COULD SEE ISOLATED NOCTURNAL STORMS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW BY THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SMALL STORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE JUST A BIT ONCE AGAIN. DEWALD && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR TSRA. HAVE INCLUDED THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. KERN .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KOAX 081953 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 253 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013 .DISCUSSION... LATEST MODELS STILL ADVERTISE DOME OF HIGH PRES ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CONUS THRU THE FCST PD. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVES WITHIN PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ARE PROGGED TO DRAG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO THE LOWER 48. AS OF NOW APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE CWA WILL SEE SOME PCPN ACTIVITY AS THE FRONTS CROSS THRU THE CWA. MONDAY AFTN...LEAD COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...BUT THEN IS PROGGED TO STALL FROM ABOUT THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO WRN KS THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING. DECENT BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY WILL BE RELATIVELY STOUT WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5". THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING PCPN EFFICIENCY/WARMING CLOUD DEPTH...SUGGESTS GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HEADING INTO AND THRU NEXT WEEKEND...COOLER WITH PCPN CHANCES RETURNING. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW GOOD MOIST WAA PUSHING NWD ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WITH BEST PCPN CHANCES INITIALLY JUST WEST OF THE CWA. UPPER SUPPORT VIA DPVA THEN MIGRATES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS. BEST UPPER SUPPORT THEN SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SAT. SAT NIGHT THEN...GFS/ECM BOTH PROG THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING SWD. HOWEVER...BOTH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL INVOF THE CWA SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN...PLENTY MOISTURE IS ADVERTISE TO BE ON TAP LEADING TO POSSIBLE GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME. DEE && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 09/18Z. MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SO FOG DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM AS LIKELY. HOWEVER...IF SURFACE DEWPTS REMAIN NEAR 70 AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEEK...SOME MENTION COULD BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. CHERMOK && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ 99/99  FXUS63 KOAX 190751 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 251 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013 .DISCUSSION... GLANCE AT REGIONAL RADAR ALREADY SHOWING LINE OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG INTENSE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT NRN MN TO NWRN KS. BNDRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF MIGRATING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT JUST AHEAD OF RELATIVELY DEEP FRONTOGENESIS BNDRY IS QUITE STOUT...PER RUC13. ALSO...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVG ASSOCIATE WITH RRQ OF JET MAX ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AS WELL. SHORT TERM ISSUE IS TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/PCPN THRU THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BNDRY ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS IN WRN NEB WAS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY REACH THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AT ANY RATE...SFC WIND PROGS VIA TIME-SERIES INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRUE FRONT REACHING KOFK BY LATE MORNING...THEN EARLY AFTN AT KLNK AND KOMA...THUS APPROXIMATE TIME FRAME FOR FOR EXPECTED CONVECTION. MEANWHILE... PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION THE LAST 24 HRS HAS CULMINATED IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AS SEE BY PWS VALUES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 160%-220% ABOVE NORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT PCPN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN OVER SRN CWA WHERE THE RUC13 IS SHOWING PRECIP EFFICIENCY/WARM CLOUD DEPTH PEAKS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN TONIGHT AS STABLE AIRMASS ENVELOPS THE REGION. IN CASE OF LINGERING PCPN ACTIVITY...WILL MAINTAIN TOKEN EVENING POPS SOUTH. EXCELLENT WEATHER ON TAP THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. NEXT ROUND OF PCPN COMES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF EXITS THE ROCKIES AND SWEEPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITH GFS AND ECM IN AGREEMENT DECENT LLVL MOISTURE FEED PRECEDING THE FRONT...GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. DEE && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS TAF SITES THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG OR BEHIND FRONT. FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER WRN NEBR COULD MOVE ACROSS KOFK VICINITY THURSDAY MORNING AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT KLNK AND KLNK...TSTMS WERE NOT MENTIONED AT THOSE SITES UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AND CHANCES APPEARED HIGHER. THUS PROB30 GROUPS IN 00Z FORECAST WERE UPGRADED TO TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH KLNK AND KOMA. SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST. CHERMOK && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ 99/99  FXUS63 KOAX 190817 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 317 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS/RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIFTED NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTHEAST AS WELL. THE 00Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE REPLACING THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND H85 DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 18 DEGREE C. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS ONCE AGAIN QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 6000 J/KG AND LITTLE CIN...WITH A PWAT OF 1.63 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OVER 4KM. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TROF SWINGS THROUGH...IT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE THETA-E RIDGE DURING THE DAY AND THIS SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KTS EARLY ON...WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS DECENT MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT THIS MORNING IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...WITH 30-40KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE TRANSLATES INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY. STORM MOTIONS DO DROP OFF...SO THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS. THE MOISTURE DOES TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CLEAR OUT AND IS CO-LOCATED IN THE THETA-E RIDGE AT 00Z...HOWEVER THE BEST LIFT IS THROUGH. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME POPS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE WITH COOLER LOWER 80S BEHIND IT. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW. DRYING/LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS IS FORECAST WITH COOLER LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 85 TO 91. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN OF MOISTURE IS ENOUGH TO RETURN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FAVORED SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS WILL NEED TO BE RE-VISITED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 THERE ARE RIPPLES IN THE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH...SO THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS UNSETTLED. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH RAIN AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIAL STORMS COULD REACH KOFK BY 03Z...AND PERHAPS 05-09Z AT KOMA AND 09Z AT KLNK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...DEWALD  FXUS63 KOAX 101958 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 258 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014 SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS RUN...MODEL AGREE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL BE NEAR ZONAL HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF MIGRATES ACROSS WRN CANADA. OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH...BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP WITH SHORTWAVE EVOLVING INTO AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW BECOMING STUCK OVER CNTRL CANADA. UPPER PATTERN TURNS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS/WRN CANADA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS AFTN SHOWING MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH PWS ROUGHLY 1.5"-2" INCHES. MEANWHILE OUT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST LATER TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO SLIDE UP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. APPEARS THAT MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE THEN THRU THE FCST PD. MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS LOCATION OF POSSIBLE SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT. LEADING UP STORM DEVELOPMENT...NAM/GFS/ECM ALL AGREE STOUT 310K-315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX OMEGA/PWS AROUND 2" GENERALLY OVER N-CNTRL AND CNTRL NEB. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY LYR THETA-E CONVG. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 60KT. IN ADDITION...MODERATE 850-250MB DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE PROGGED OVER THE REGION WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS PENETRATING THE CWA. THUS WILL MENTION IN UPCOMING ISSUANCE OF HWO. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE VERY PROBABLE MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER. PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN PLACE ALONG WITH PWS JUST ABOVE 2" AND KI VALUES 40-45 COINCIDENT TO MAX OMEGA. FRONTAL BNDRY BEGINS PUSHING SOUTH SAT EVENING WITH DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS FILTERING IN ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014 TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC ECM/GFS AS WELL AS ECMENS/CMCENS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STAGNANT LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. PATTERN WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DRY/COOL AIRMASS ENVELOPING THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MEAN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A MATTER OF FACT...MORNING LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SHOULD BE APPROACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014 THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH CU WEST OF LNK...FOR NOW HAVE JUST SCT IN AS THESE SHOULD MIX AND LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAFS. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THERE IS STRONG H85 WAA AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A MENTION AT KOFK AND KOMA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORM. WILL NEED TO ASSESS RAIN CHANCES WITH EACH UPDATE. DID MENTION LLWS AT KOMA AND KLNK AND MAY NEED TO ADD AT KOFK FROM 07-13Z. SOUTHEAST WIND 15-20KTS SUSTAINED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 23-28KTS...THESE SHOULD DECREASE TO 10-15KTS AFTER 01Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY  FXUS63 KOAX 312023 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 323 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND HOW THE CLOUDS AFFECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM FROM 500 MB RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHED ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UP TOWARD SOUTHERN ALBERTA. ONE DISTURBANCE WAS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL FACTORS...AND SOME MODEL QPF OUTPUT...SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTS INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AS A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 68 TO 74. MONDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA. CONVECTION FOCUSES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...HOWEVER THE SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THERE IS ONGOING THETA-E ADVECTION...BUT NOT MUCH LIFT. LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF 0 TO -1 WORK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAEFS/GEFS PW/SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ANOMALIES ARE IN THE 97/99/MAX PERCENTILE FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOCAL PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE FROM AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES THRU TUESDAY. AFTER A MILD NIGHT IN THE 50S...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 75 TO 80 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE H5 TROF BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...MOVES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AND IS STILL IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. 00Z NAEFS/GEFS PW/SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HIGH PERCENTILE AREAS SHIFT EAST MORE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION/H85 DEWPOINTS OF 12-16DEG C SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS SUPPORT PROPAGATION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROLLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOO...SO THIS SHOULD RE- INVIGORATE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST OR OVER OUR AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS/HIGH PWS/4KM WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF STORMS/INCREASE EFFICIENCY/POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL STILL FORECAST READINGS TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 WITH SUCH A WARM START. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE H5 TROF IS STILL TO OUR WEST WITH A RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PATTERN PRETTY MUCH STAYS IN PLACE THRU THE EXTENDED. THE FORECAST AREA IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ARE SPOTTY SATURDAY WITH AN UPTICK LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WEDGE OF REALLY WARM AIR IS TO OUR WEST OR SOUTH...AND CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS SOME DAYS. HIGHS MOST DAYS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 70S TO THE LOWER/MID 80S. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DID NOT MENTION ANY -SHRA AT THIS POINT DUE TO AMOUNT OF COVERAGE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY AVIATION...MILLER  FXUS63 KOAX 250156 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 856 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 UPDATED PRODUCTS A FEW TIMES TO INCREASE RAIN AMOUNTS. THINK THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT... MAINLY IN WESTERN IOWA. RECENT RAP MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL. CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW SHOULD DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY FOCUS HEAVIEST AND LONGEST DURATION RAIN OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. 00Z COAX SOUNDING WAS QUITE MOIST...WITH 1.74 PRECIPITABLE WATER AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO FAR AND THIS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ALREADY ISSUED ONE FLOOD ADVISORY PRODUCT. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU YEP 24 2015 VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY...ALTHOUGH SAC HAS INDICATED ABOUT 500 J/KG OF ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE LOW WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE LOW GRADUALLY BEGINS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AND DRIFT SOUTH...WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGERING YET THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO OPEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ONCE THE RAIN FINALLY ENDS...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU YEP 24 2015 UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND MILD DAY MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD HELP PUSH A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THEN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SOLUTIONS. ECMWF REMAINS DRY...BUT GFS INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD TSRA AROUND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION SHRA. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE IN REGARDS TO CIGS...IFR AT KOFK BUT VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK FOR NOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AT KLNK AND KOMA THIS EVENING WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG POSSIBLE TOO. IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MILLER SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...MILLER