FXUS63 KMQT 251957 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 357 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 ...CHALLENGING FORECAST IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. RADAR IS SHOWING SEVERAL RETURNS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL SUPPORT FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER REACHING AROUND -10C THROUGH MID MORNING. RUC AND NAM SOUNDING INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...AROUND 12C...MOVING IN NEAR THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY TRANSITION THE FZDZ OVER TO MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW AND FZDZ MIX OR TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW. AROUND 00Z SOUNDINGS WARM SLIGHTLY ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT 500MB TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO A -FZDZ/-SHSN MIX...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ANY ONE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE HUGGING THE -12C ISOTHERM WHICH IS WHERE ICE IS INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A MIX OF FZDZ AND -SHSN IN THE FORECAST. DELTA T VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -12 TO -14 ALONG WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL PROFILES WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THERE IS ALSO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH MAY HELP FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS OVER THE KEWEENAW. TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHSN AND FZDZ WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TO 850 DELTA T VALUES TO BE AROUND -8C TO -9C...EFFECTIVELY REDUCING THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED FZDZ MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL UPPER MI AS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND UPSLOPE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INLAND. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ON THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...925-850MB...BEING PRESENT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE CLOUD THICKNESS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE AND A FEW LOCALIZED CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTH-NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. TYPE LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BARELY RISING ABOVE -10C. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE FZDZ AND IF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OCCUR THERE COULD BE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL LIMIT THE SNOW MENTION THOUGH...AS CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE BECOMES FORCED BELOW 925MB. THIS DOES LEAD TO SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS BECOMING TRAPPED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC TO 925MB DELTA-T VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 8-9C...SO LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE BE LIMITED. BUT IF CLOUDS ARE STILL PRESENT FROM WEDNESDAY...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LACK OF MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL TRY TO KEEP THEM IN PLACE. THUS...WILL TRY TO HOLD ONTO MORE OF A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN HAVE DAYTIME MIXING TRY TO REDUCE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY. ONE THING TO WATCH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE INCREASING SFC-925MB LAPSE RATES IF BREAKS DO OCCUR. THIS COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL CU REDEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR WEST LOCATIONS WHERE LAPSE RATES APPROACH 9C/KM. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLEAR EVEN THOUGH A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE LATE MARCH SUNSHINE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND THEN UPPER 30S THROUGH MID 40S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF AND MOST OF IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE KSAW REACHING THE LOW 40S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUS...IT IS LOOKING LIKE OUR OFFICE WILL END UP REACHING 40 DEGREES AND KEEP THIS MARCH FROM BEING THE FIRST MARCH ON RECORD WHERE WE DIDN/T REACH 40 DEGREES. CHANGES LOOK TO ARRIVE FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS IDEA...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BASED OFF THICKNESS AND THERMAL PROFILES...LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH THE DRY HIGH IN PLACE...QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER 850MB TEMPS SURGE SOUTHEAST AND REACH -12C/ECMWF OR -10C/GFS BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW GENERATED BY THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WOULD SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR MONDAY. WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME FRAME NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA...EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR TO INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALONG WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORT MAINLY -SHSN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO -FZDZ OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT EACH TAF SITE WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON REACHING AROUND THE 20KT RANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO EASTER SEABOARD WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS. BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KNOTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KEC MARINE...KEC  FXUS63 KMQT 261923 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 323 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH IS CAUSING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A 500 MB RIDGE THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED...SO THE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -8C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1C. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORMALLY...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPARTING. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION TO INDUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IN NORTH UPSLOPE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THIS WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST...BUT BUMPED UP AND HIT THE HIGHLAND AREAS A BIT MORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT COULD BE TRICKY AS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR...THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND CLOUDS COULD COME BACK IN AGAIN. WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 LITTLE CHANGES IN THE START OF THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA WILL FINALLY BE SHIFTING EAST AND THE AREA WILL COME UNDER WEAK RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE CWA...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW /1-1.5KFT OR LESS/. BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEST AND LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EAST...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE COMING OUT OF THE CLOUDS...DUE TO CLOUD TOP TEMPS ONLY AROUND -9C WEST AND -6C EAST. NOT OVERLY ENTHUSED TO PUT MORE MENTIONS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AT THIS POINT. DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON THURSDAY SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. WEST AND EAST STILL SEEM TO HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CLOUDS DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES STRENGTHENING THE STRATOCU FIELD. THESE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERIODS ARE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER...BUT AM GOING TO TRY TO DIMINISH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO FRIDAY...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME MOISTURE WHICH COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL CU AND WILL GO WITH BORDERLINE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE CWA SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM/UKMET ALL HAVE A SIMILAR IDEA WITH TWO SHORTWAVES AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PLUNGING THE AREA BACK INTO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4-6...DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES REMAIN AND FEEL THAT A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE ROUTE TO TAKE. THUS...THE OVERALL IDEA IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. THEN THE SECONDARY AND STRONGER WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ANOMALOUS 850MB TEMPS...AROUND -16C AT 18Z MONDAY OR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD LEAD TO NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SECONDARY LOW/FRONT FOR MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. THERE HASN/T BEEN A LOT OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL WITH THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND LAKE EFFECT...SO IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE DRIER AIR GETS IN AT SAW...MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME UPSLOPE FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT IWD AND SAW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 NO REAL STRONG PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN SIGHT WITH NO STRONG GRADIENTS...SO THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW GALES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL...FREEZING SPRAY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...07  FXUS63 KMQT 290742 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 342 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW HEADS AWAY FROM THE AREA. BASICALLY...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND THEN THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THIS TIME PERIOD AS CLOUDS DECREASE. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF DIMINISHING POPS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 10C...MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR THE PERIOD BEING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER AN SURFACE RIDGE AND EXITTING WEAK UPPER RIDGE ON TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A COOL START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON...QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UP MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND INDICATE MORE DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WEAK LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MORE MODELS ARE HINTING AT LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE HI-RES MODELS). INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AND WITH A CAP AROUND 10KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BUILD TOO MUCH...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH INDICATION OF SOME SHOWERS TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE LAKE BREEZE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST SINCE CLOUD DEPTH IS SHALLOW AND THE CAP WILL KEEP THE CLOUD ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED ON TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVER THE WESTERN U.P. LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.P. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING...WILL TREND VALUES UP TO LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TRY TO PROVIDE BETTER TIMING ON THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL CAP THUNDER AT CHANCE PROBS SINCE MLCAPE IS BELOW 600J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON THE EFFECT SHEAR FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS /20-40KTS/...BUT WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...DON/T THINK THERE IS MUCH SEVERE CONCERN. WEAK INSTABILITY IN AN AREA WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS DOESN/T LEND ITSELF TO SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS AND RAIN SPREAD NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL...WHERE THE INGREDIENTS OVERLAP THE BEST AND FRONT TIMING TOWARDS PEAK HEATING OCCURS. THROUGH JULY 28TH...OUR OFFICE IS UP TO THE 8TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE ADDITIONAL RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE...SHOULD EASILY PUSH THIS JULY INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULY/S ON RECORD. THE FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARDS DRY AND CLEARING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING IN NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO DID MENTION SOME SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THERE WILL BE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WEATHER FROM THE UPPER LOW AND THE OTHER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY NOSE INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 AS MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS E...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD W TO E ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BROUGHT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX...AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER... THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. AT KSAW...NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN LIFR CONDITIONS. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE THAT DRYING/SLIGHTLY BACKING WINDS WORK TO RAISE CIGS TO IFR. EXPECT STRATUS TO QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THEN CLEAR BY MID MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THIS PAST HIGH WIND EVENT AND DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH WAVES ANYTIME SOON IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...07  FXUS63 KMQT 090859 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 459 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. SCT/ISOLD -SHRA PERSISTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA SUPPORTED BY A WEAK 850-700 MB TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 115 KNOT 300 MB JET TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALSO SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS OVER NW ONTARIO FROM SIOUX LOOKOUT TO DRYDEN. TODAY...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 12Z. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW ONTARIO SHRTWV WILL REMAIN NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...THE TAIL OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE BOUNDARY AND MINIMAL MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 200 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLD -SHRA OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF EAST CNTRL UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME -SHRA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST FROM ESC-IMT ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER SO PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS FROM 7C-9C WILL SUPPORT SCT/BKN CU DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SO...KEPT FCST MINS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013 OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN EARLY IN THE MORNING AS A REINFORCING SFC HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT AT ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS OFF AND ON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. INVESTIGATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA SHOW WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH 5 TO 7 KFT DEPTH. GIVEN SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH AND INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ELSEWHERE IN THE LAYER...ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO THE CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY SHOWERS WERE TO FORM...THEY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND LIKELY FOCUSED ON LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING AS A LARGE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ON A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE WAVE. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS THEN BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 00Z NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE FALLEN VICTIM TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. WILL THEREFORE IGNORE THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATING DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...DO NOT SEE THAT GREAT OF A POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN WILD CARD FOR THE DAY WILL BE HOW CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING. WITH OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ABOVE H7 QUITE DRY ACROSS UPPER MI...CLOUD COVER SHOULD EASILY ERODE AND NOT INHIBIT OPTIMAL HEATING. FOUND THE 00Z GFS QUITE REASONABLE WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET-UP...SO GAVE IT MORE WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST. A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE REACHES THE CENTRAL CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE MID 50S WILL LEAD TO POOR INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF MLCAPE OF 600 TO 900 J/KG. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND OVERALL THUNDER COVERAGE FOR THAT MATTER. HOWEVER...WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...THERE IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS UNDER ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY EVENING. FORCING IS QUITE CONVOLUTED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATIONS FOR BEST FORCING. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD WITH BRINGING IN MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK. THERE IS...HOWEVER...SOME DISAGREEMENT AT HOW QUICK THE TROUGH AXIS COMPLETELY CLEARS THE CWA. THE GFS HAS SPED UP THE TROUGH OVER RECENT RUNS...THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH...AND THE GEM HAS HAS WEAKENED THE TROUGH. NOT MUCH ONE CAN DO WITH THIS INFORMATION OTHER THAN STICK WITH CONSENSUS DATA. WITH LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER GOOD STRING OF NIGHTS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING APPEAR LIKELY...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING THE WAY AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE THUS LOWERED MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. THE GFS HINTS AT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTERIOR WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A STOUT INVERSION WITH LIMITED RETURN MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON FRI...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE U.P. EXCEPT THE AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER THAN TODAY. EXPECTING THAT KCMX HAS THE ONLY CHANCE OF SEEING THESE SHOWERS...AND WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAF. WILL GET GUSTY WINDS AT ALL SITES AS WELL FRI AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013 WRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 RANGE TODAY BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF SO MAX WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER NW LATE TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WI AND LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL BRING W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB/KLUBER  FXUS63 KMQT 102009 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 409 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH UPR DIV IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOC 100+ KT 3H JET HAVE HELPED SUSTAIN A COUPLE DIFFERENT BATCHES OF SHRA WHICH HAVE MOVED OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FOG WHICH PLAGUED THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY LIFTED PER SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS BUT STRATUS CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. AT THE SFC...A COUPLE OF SFC TROUGHS EXTEND FM LOW PRES CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ONE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO ERN AND SCNTRL UPR MI WHILE ANOTHER IS STILL SITUATED OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. TONIGHT...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS NOW EXTENDING FM IRON COUNTY INTO WRN MQT COUNTY TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS 700-650 MB FGEN SLOWLY WEAKENS. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORM COULD FORM OVER THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PARTIAL SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED MLCAPES TO BUILD UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC TROUGH COULD TRIGGER STORMS OVER ERN UPPER MI LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ON THE EVENING SHIFT. THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG TO FORM LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HRS AS TEMPS RADIATE THROUGH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING. HAVE EXPANDED MENTION OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING DOWN FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN/NRN MANITOBA WILL HELP PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. SCNTRL AND ERN UPR MI WILL AGAIN HAVE BEST CHC OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AS MLCAPES ARE FCST BY MODELS TO INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG. WILL INCLUDE HIGHER CHC 40 PCT POPS OVER THIS AREA. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE WRLY FLOW INTO THE BAY OF GREEN BAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPS (LOWER TO MID 80S) OVER MNM COUNTY. ELSEWHERE MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 COLD FRONT WILL BE DEPARTING THE CWA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO START THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS...THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK BREAK TO THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE COLDER AIR AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY. SINCE LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS ARE AROUND 12-16C...THIS INCREASING COLD AIR WILL PUSH DELTA T VALUES TOWARDS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. THE INVERSION HEIGHT IS RIGHT AROUND 825MB OR 4.5KFT...SO THAT WILL LIMIT THE CLOUD DEPTH FOR STRONGER SHOWERS...BUT STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AROUND FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED MENTION IN THE FAVORED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. WILL RAMP UP THE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLDEST AIR AND BEST MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FORECAST AND FROST POTENTIAL INTO QUESTION. OPTED TO TREND TEMPS AND CLOUDS UP SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE OVER THE VERY FAR WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) AND WILL KEEP THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THERE. THIS LONGER LASTING MOISTURE CALLS FOR THE CLOUDS TO HANG ON INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST UP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THAT TIME. ALSO DELAYED THE END OF THE SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE MORNING FOR LOCATIONS FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE CWA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO A VERY CHILLY NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND PWATS ARE AROUND 40-45 PERCENT OF NORMAL...EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. FORECAST HAS BEEN HITTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THAT CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. DID TREND LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND IT APPEARS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST IN THAT AREA WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST MAY EVEN FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR AWHILE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND AROUND . WITH 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. THE AREA UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE BRUSHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THUS THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. SINCE THE MAIN FORCING/MOISTURE LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT AND TOWARDS SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS. COLD AIR WILL ONLY BRUSH THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS/SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LESS LIKELY THAN SHOWN ON YESTERDAY/S RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX IN FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT IMPROVEMENT. KIWD/KSAW HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR THIS AFTN. BAND OF SHRA OVER WRN UPR MI/N CNTRL WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO GIVE KSAW SOME SHRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AT KIWD AND KSAW...BUT EXPECT MORE FOG REDEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING WITH LIFR TO VLIFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL BE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE E COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH N GUSTS OF 20-30KTS CENTERED ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS  FXUS63 KMQT 172022 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013 17Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH ERN IA. DPVA...7H FGEN AND 305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST IA. VIS SATELLITE HAS SHOWN AN EXPANSION OF DIURNAL CU FROM MNM-DELTA-ALGER COUNTIES EASTWARD IN AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS (UPPER 40 TO LOWER 50S) AIDED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI AND BAY OF GREEN BAY. RDGG ALOFT AND AT THE SFC HAS KEPT THE REST OF THE FCST AREA GENERALLY CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MDLS SUGGEST THAT AS THE IA SHRTWV GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND BRING SOME LIGHT WAA PCPN INTO THE AREA AS 300K-310K ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREADS FROM SE MN AND WRN WI TOWARD UPPER MI. THE NAM/GFS ARE STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO THE CWA COMPARED TO THE GEM/ECMWF. GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...THE NAM/GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK SO USED MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS WITH ONLY A 30 PCT CHC OF LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z NEAR THE WI BORDER WITH SLIGHT CHC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEST HALF. WEDNESDAY...GIVEN PREDICTED TRACK OF ERN IA SHORTWAVE EXPECT BEST FORCING FOR SHRA TO BE MAINLY CENTRAL COUNTIES IN THE MORNING AND THEN TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA WEST AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE. MODEL MLCAPES OTHER THAN NAM SHOW ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST OVER THE AREA SO WILL ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013 LITTLE CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO START THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE EARLY ON WHEN THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO CUTOUT. THIS BROAD WAA WILL ALSO LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. FINALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SINCE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...DID UP THE FOG TO AREAS FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING THE SLOWEST FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND SHOWERS...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS SIMILAR WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE 0.25-0.5IN OF RAIN. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE ARE DECENT VARIATIONS IN THE INSTABILITY...WITH SOME MODELS EVEN SHOWING UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING/HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE (25-30KTS) ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WOULD THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THINK BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE BIGGEST THREATS IF THE UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND EVEN SOME CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS. BUT MUCH COLDER AIR...WILL START TO SURGE IN WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE MOST CLOUDS TO BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA AND WITH THE COLDER AIR THERE...EVEN SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS (DELTA-T VALUES BETWEEN 10-14) IN THOSE WIND FAVORED AREAS. WITH THE LATEST TRENDS OF CLOUD DEPTHS BEING 3-4KFT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE COMING SHIFTS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT A DRY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WON/T WARM UP TOO SIGNIFICANTLY (WITH HIGHS AROUND 60). ALSO...SATURDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME FROST OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS LET UP DUE TO THE APPROACHING HIGH. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AS THE AREA IS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S)...BUT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS LURKING TO THE WEST. THIS UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO GIVE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013 WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY PRES GRAD JUST ABV DEVELOPING RADIATION INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS TONIGHT AT TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM WI AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. KSAW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PREVAILING SHRA CLOSER TO THE BEST FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM WHILE KIWD AND KCMX SHOULD ONLY SEE VCSH && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013 BETWEEN HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS...SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP TO 20 KNOTS INTO WED. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS W TO NW WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FRI INTO SAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BLO 20 KT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS  FXUS63 KMQT 052048 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 448 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 LARGE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PULLING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. THIS AREAS HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE MEAN FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT JUST THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BRUSH AREAS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT/CHANCE THUNDER IN THAT AREA...AS MUCAPE VALUES ON THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT (CO-LOCATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER JET ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW)...WITH A BROAD LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ALONG THE MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN BORDER AT 12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SFC WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THIS NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WISCONSIN BORDER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND THEN MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE THE NORM AHEAD OF THIS NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HAVE A GENERAL LIKELY POP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT DID SHOW A PERIOD OF DEFINITE VALUES DURING THE EXPECT PUSH OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SLIGHT/CHANCE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST SINCE MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-400 J/KG ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY SINCE CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE LAST HOUR AT OUR OFFICE. CONSIDERED ISSUING AN SPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...BUT WEBCAMS OUTSIDE OF OUR OFFICE (ON THE RIDGE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPE) DON/T SHOW ANY FOG SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE LOW WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MN/IOWA BORDER SHIFTS EAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BE OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OR FAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...AREA COMES UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. DRY MID LEVEL AIR ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE CUT OUT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE THINK THE STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE CLOUD DEPTH FALLS TO 2-3KFT. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN A FASTER DEPARTURE WITH THE POPS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS SETUP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE EXPECTED WEAKENING LOW...DON/T THINK THE SHOWERS WILL BE TOO STRONG AND JUST WENT WITH SCATTERED WORDING. FINALLY OVER THE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL...TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THAT AREA WILL BE IN A SIMILAR POSITION AS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING...WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WON/T GO QUITE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL TREND TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY IN THAT AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 SUN NIGHT INO MON...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE 700-500 MB DEROMATION/FGEN AREA NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND INTO CNTRL AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINED A BIT SLOWER IN ENDING THE PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA MON MORNING COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM. SO...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUCED OVER THE EAST MON MORNING. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT...BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH GREATER HEIGHT FALLS INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES HELPING TO PUSH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WED-SAT...DRY WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW WED INTO FRI AS A TROF DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS ALLOWS A BROAD MID-LVL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH FCST 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 14C...WARMER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL WITH HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY THU/FRI...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE CNTRL ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS OR UPPER MS VALLEY BY SAT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KIWD/KSAW AND COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF 1-2HR PERIOD OF CEILINGS RISING INTO IFR (OR MVFR AT KIWD). BUT THEN THAT MIXING FROM THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR OR LIFR AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE LOWER CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THIS LINE...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION. THESE SHOWERS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO A BRIEF RISE IN CEILINGS BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETTLE BACK IN. LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS IS FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAISE CEILINGS TO AT LEAST MVFR VALUES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BORDER BY DAYBREAK AND THEN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THAT AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW 25KTS. AT THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT THIS TIME...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO STAY BELOW 20KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 210750 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 350 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 THE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW APPROACHING FROM MN AND N WI WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE SFC LOW OVER SE MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE 500MB LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE S BORDER BETWEEN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL DIVE SE...TO W LAKE SUPERIOR CENTRAL UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD...TO NW LAKE MI AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 06Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR W...AND MAINLY RAIN BEING ENHANCE BY CONVERGENT ONSHORE FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE WARM AIR SET UP INITIALLY...AND ADDITIONAL WARMING NEAR LAKE MI...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS E UPPER MI...WITH ONLY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL W...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 30F AT IWD TO MID 30S ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER W GOGEBIC CO BY 06Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM LAKE TEMPS...EXPECT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS TO INHIBIT MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THE TIMING OF MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER THE W HALF WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED AS WE GET A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE ONGOING SYSTEM. THE SAME AIRMASS THAT WILL BE OVER THE W AROUND 06Z MONDAY HAS ALREADY PUT DOWN ABOUT 1IN OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E MN. HAVE 0.5-NEAR 2 IN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z MONDAY...AND JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO BY 00Z TUESDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...A SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTS OF 20-30KTS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND COOLER AIR RUSHING IN...1 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR W COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THIS WORK WEEK AND LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS COLD AIR WILL ALSO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. UNCERTAINTY GROWS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OR RE-AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOR TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWEEPING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE NORTHWEST LAKE ENHANCED FLOW. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE 850MB TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THINK THIS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL REALLY PUT A CRIMP ON THE SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA EVEN WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES AROUND 18 AND OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS AROUND 300-500 J/KG. THUS...WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TO START TUESDAY AND QUICKLY DIMINISH VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HELD ON TO THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EAST SINCE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME OVER THE LAKE TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING...WILL SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND -7C TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF OVER THE LAKE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 12KFT WILL SUPPORT DEEP CLOUD DEPTHS FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY SNOW RATIOS BEING AROUND 10-1 DUE TO ONLY THE TOP 5KFT OF THE CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ AND THE BEST LAKE FORCING BELOW THAT. THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE SOME CLUMPING OF THE FLAKES TO SUPPORT THE MORE SYSTEM SNOW LIKE SLR VALUES...WHICH WILL CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HALF FROM WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY SEEN DURING PURE LES EVENTS. IN ADDITION...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TRYING TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE EAST...IT TRENDS AWAY FROM THE LOWER 30S GENERALLY NEEDED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. THAT FACTOR IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHWEST WINDS COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IT/S SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 50 DEGREES...WHICH DOES RAISE THE WETBULB VALUES TO HAVE SOME RAIN MIXING IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THINKING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW WOULD BE UNDER THE HEAVIEST BANDS AND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE MOST NW WIND LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN ANY STRONGER BANDS...WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN THE LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY AND A SERIES OF HIGHS SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS LOOK LIKE THERE IS LITTLE VARIABILITY DURING THAT PERIOD AND WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL HIGHLIGHT LIKELY POPS IN THE NORMAL NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WON/T BE LARGE...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS IN THE WEST AND EAST OF MUNISING THAT WILL HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY FRIDAY. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE WEST...WITH THE EXISTING SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM TONIGHT. MODELS REALLY DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS A LONG JOURNEY AHEAD OF IT (CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII) AND NEEDS TO ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND POTENTIALLY MERGE WITH THE ANOTHER WAVE IN NORTHWEST CANADA. WITH THAT LONG OF A DISTANCE TO TRAVEL...IT/S NOT SURPRISING THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS ON THE SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. 12Z GEM/GFS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THE WAVE AND CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS THE CLIPPER NORTH OF THE AREA (MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT). 00Z RUNS HAVE FLIPPED THE GEM/ECMWF IDEAS WITH THE 00Z GFS STAYING SIMILAR. THESE DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO CONFIDENCE FOR THAT TIME FRAME OTHER THAN THE BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. USING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS GIVES LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE THIS MRNG AT IWD WHILE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR AT CMX WITH WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE WNW COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO SHIFTING NEWD INTO ERN LK SUP. IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT SAW AS WELL. ONCE THE DEEPENING LO MOVES INTO LK SUP LATER THIS MRNG...W WINDS WL TURN QUITE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LLVL AIR...PLAN ON A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DESPITE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. SAW SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER LO PRES TROF THIS EVNG WL BRING IFR CONDITIONS/SOME SHSN AT IWD/CMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 A LOW CENTERED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AN NORTHERN IOWA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT THIS LOW TO LIFT SLOWLY INTO QUEBEC MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF 35KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR STARTING MID MORNING MONDAY /OUT OF THE W/. A SECOND PUSH OF STRONGER WINDS WILL COME IN AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK AROUND...WITH A PERIOD OF NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS LINGERING IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OF IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ002>004-084. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ009. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ005. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ265>267. GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ264. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 220750 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 350 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS CLOSED LOW MOVES ESE TODAY NEAR L'ANSE BY THIS EVENING AND THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUE MORNING. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K SURFACES WITH MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -6C TO -8C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 8C-10C. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. A TROUGH PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT WILL SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH...SO THIS WILL HELP FOCUS FOR A BRIEF TIME SOME STRONG 950 MB CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW SOME HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO HIT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN U.P. THIS IS COVERED WELL IN THE FORECAST AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR AMOUNTS OR TEMPERATURES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH IT OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL STILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO BE PERSISTENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND -7 TO -8C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS ON AVERAGE AROUND 8-9C...THERE IS PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE NW TO WNW...BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS THE DIRECTION TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS EAST OF GRAND MARAIS OVER THE EAST AND ALONG ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING TO MORE TRADITIONAL NW-NNW FLOW LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (EG ALGER COUNTY OVER THE EAST). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS FOR THE FAVORED EASTERN CWA LOCATIONS SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS IDEA FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM A DEGREE. EVEN WITH THE LIKELY/DEFINITE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...DON/T EXPECT THE INTENSITY TO BE AS STRONG AS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DEEP CLOUD LAYER (10-12KFT) AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF 300-500 J/KG SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD EVEN END UP PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN QUICK BURSTS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (JACOBSVILLE SAW 2.6IN IN 1HR). THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE THE LOWER SNOW RATIOS AND MID-UPPER 30S NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO THINK SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE LOW END FOR TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE AT OR BELOW THE DGZ. THUS...WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING BELOW...WOULD EXPECT RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-13 TO 1 RANGE INSTEAD OF THE NORMAL 17-25 TO 1. IN ADDITION...WITH UPPER 40 DEGREE WATER MODIFYING THE NEAR SURFACE AIR...LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE HOVERING IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 30S. THIS WILL TRY TO PUSH WETBULB ZERO VALUES UP TO 1KFT...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MIXING OF RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE SHORELINE. IN ADDITION...THOSE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO LIMIT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXCEPT UNDER THE STRONGER BANDS...WHERE THE RATE WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE WARMER TEMPS. THEREFORE...PINNING DOWN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE MULTIPLE FACTORS IS TRICKY FOR THIS EARLY SEASON EVENT. IN GENERAL...THINK THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA (GENERALLY 1-3INCH) WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING ADVISORY AMOUNTS (3-4INCH) WHERE ANY STRONGER BANDS SETS UP. ONE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WATERSPOUTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH OF 10-12KFT AND DELTA-T VALUES AROUND 16...THAT DOES PLACE THAT AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL ON THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM. THUS...WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THAT AREA AND THEN END IN BY THURSDAY MORNING SINCE THE MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO LESSEN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN SHIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...EXPECT THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. FORTUNATELY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM (WITH THE LOW SLIDING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SHOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF. THEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO BE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK TO -6C. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR SATURDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL GIVE A LITTLE BIT OF A REPRIVE TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK. LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES POTENTIALLY BECOMING CUTOFF OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS ON MONDAY...AN ELONGATED TROUGH ASSOCIATED FROM A LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT (ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL) AND IT COULD PRODUCE MEASURABLE SNOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT IWD/CMX EARLY THIS MRNG WITH UPSLOPE GUSTY NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT MVFR WX TO DOMINATE MOST OF THIS FCST PERIOD WITH CHILLY NW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING LO PRES TROF AND INCOMING HI PRES RDG. CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC RDG/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT LATER TODAY WL ALLOW GUSTY NW WINDS TO DIMINISH. AT SAW...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY WL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ACCOMPANYING THE TROF...BUT VFR WX WL RETURN THIS AFTN WITH CLOSER APRCH OF RDG. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 A WEST GALE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SWITCHES TO A NORTH GALE EVENT THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS DIE DOWN ON LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE LINGER IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE THROUGH THE THU. LOOKS LIKE A LONG PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH THEN WITH WAVES BEING VERY CHOPPY OUT THERE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002>004-009-084. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...07  FXUS63 KMQT 262343 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 643 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 505 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LAKE HURON WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SE THROUGH LOWER MI AND A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NRN ONTARIO. 700-300 QVECTOR CONV OUT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHSN ACROSS WEST AND CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER TODAY WITH SOME HEAVIER LES REPORTED ALONG AND BEHIND INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME AREAS NEAR WAKEFIELD/BESSEMER REPORTED 8-9 INCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ALREADY FROM THE SNOW THAT STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY LES WAS ALSO REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF HOUGHTON...NW MQT AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES. EXPECT LES TO CONTINUE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS WINDS FROM NW TO MORE NNE DIRECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL PUSH HEAVIER LES BANDS INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AND WRN ALGER COUNTY WITH ANOTHER DOMINANT BAND LIKELY SETTING UP OVER THE PORCUPINE MTNS/IRONWOOD AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR JUST AFT 00Z WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO ERN UPPER MI. EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES NEAR MARQUETTE LATE THIS EVENING SHIFTING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT STRENGTHENS. OVER THE WEST...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED INTO IRONWOOD/WAKEFIELD/BERGLAND/PORCUPINE MTNS WITH SNOWBANDS ORIGINATING NEAR THUNDER BAY AND PERHAPS CONNECTING WITH LAKE NIPIGON IN STRONG MOIST CYCLONIC NNE FLOW. WITH BUFR SNDGS INDICATING THE STRONGER UPWARD MOTION IN THE DGZ FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT...EXPECT SLR VALUES IN THE 25/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE ROADS HAZARDOUS AND TRAVEL DIFFICULT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MQT COUNTY AND FROM WHITE PINE TO BERGLAND WEST TO IRONWOOD. WEDNESDAY....EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 OF SNOW OVER GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON COUNTIES WITH ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MQT COUNTY. GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNTS AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON TO AN LES WARNING THROUGH 18Z WED WHILE I ALSO UPGRADED MQT TO LES WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW LEFT LES ADVISORIES GOING FOR KEWEENAW-NRN HOUGHTON INTO TONIGHT AND FOR BARAGA COUNTIES AND ALGER COUNITES INTO WED AFTERNOON. WRN ALGER WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TONIGHT AS HEAVIER LES BANDS COULD PUSH AMOUNTS NEAR WARNING CRITERIA. INFLUZ OF DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING NNE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LES TO TAPER OFF WED AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 416 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013 UPPER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAIN LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH DISTURBANCES CONTINUING TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE THERMOMETERS OUTSIDE WILL BE BELOW TURKEY THAWING CONDITIONS...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THOSE WHO ENJOY SNOW WILL BE THANKFUL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW ACROSS SD AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN OVER MN AND IA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY CROSSING UPPER MI AND LAKE MI THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE BEST BANDS OF SNOW TO BE OFF-SHORE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...STRETCHING THROUGH KEWEENAW COUNTY AND TROUGH S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. COULD HAVE 2-5IN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY. THE NAM AND OTHER SMALLER SCALE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE SNOW/QPF ACCUMULATION OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY IF CURRENT THINKING REMAINS. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL BE MARKED BY WAA. LEFTOVER POCKETS OF COLD AIR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE -7 TO -13C RANGE BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE NEXT TROUGH SET UP FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE N PLAINS AT 06Z SATURDAY SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE POPS WILL INCREASE BACK TO CHANCES AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THE DISTURBANCE. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS E ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC OUT OF THE SSW AROUND 40-45KTS. SFC TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 30S CWA WIDE FOR THE 1ST TIME SINCE MONDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING IS STILL A CONCERN...WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFERING BY 350MI AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS IT ACROSS S CENTRAL ONTARIO...WHILE THE LOW OFF THE GFS IS NEAR THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. OF MORE OF A CONCERN IS THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT LOOKING SYSTEM...IN THE FORM OF A 500MB LOW SINKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY. STILL...THE IMPACTS OF THAT ONE WILL NOT REALLY BE NOTICED UNTIL CLOSER TO MID WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW SLIDES ACROSS MT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS THIS ONE WILL HAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 642 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013 PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS FCST PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY (FROM VFR TO AS LOW AS LIFR) AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT/WED MORNING. AT KIWD...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS FALLING TO LIFR THIS EVENING. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LATE WED MORNING/AFTN WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO IFR THEN MVFR. AT KCMX... DEVELOPING NRLY FLOW BEHIND TROF WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT LOW CONDITIONS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN IFR AND MVFR WITH MVFR PROBABLY PREVAILING WED. AT KSAW...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP RAPIDLY TO IFR AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE 04-06Z. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR THEN MVFR WILL OCCUR WED AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 416 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER S ONTARIO WILL MOVE E OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS TONIGHT SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 SYSTEMS...N GALES TO 35KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CONTINUING WITH MAINLY GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY OVER E PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE DEEPENING...WHICH WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER LAKES. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SHOULD CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...MERGING WITH A HIGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH MOVES E TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...OUT OF THE S NEAR 30KTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004- 006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265. GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 292058 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 358 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXITTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY CENTRED OVER LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH HAS PUSHED MUCH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT AT THE SAME TIME PUSHED SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. THIS LAKE EFFECT HAS REALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRY AIR AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS HAS REALLY TAKE ITS TOLL ON WHAT WAS LEFT. UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING BUT BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAINLY MID CLOUDS (ABOVE 8KFT) DUE TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH NEAR THE SURFACE. BEST MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH MATCHES THE BEST 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PV ANOMALY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING WITH THE START OF THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...DON/T EXPECT MUCH TO REACH THE SURFACE UNTIL MODELS SHOW THE LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR GIVING AWAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH. THEREFORE...DID TREND POPS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (EXCEPT CHANCES OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NORTH CENTRAL AND HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EAST). WITH THIS GLANCING BLOW...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. SINCE THERE IS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR AROUND THE DGZ THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THAT AREA AND ACCORDING TO THE NAM...MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER WARMER THAN -7C...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH DEFINITELY LEANS TOWARDS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUT IF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTENING SHOWN IN THE NAM DOESN/T OCCUR...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL CEASE TO EXIST. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST MENTIONED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR NOW OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING AND MENTION IN THE HWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL. TO START THE PERIOD...THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE INDICATING AN DEVELOPING BAND MOVING NORTH INTO EASTERN DELTA...WESTERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND ALGER COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING WEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH. EXPECT TONIGHT TO MAINLY BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SINCE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE DOESN/T INFLUENCE THAT CLOUD LAYER UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THUS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON HOW STRONG THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE. 850MB TEMPS DO WARM SLIGHTLY AND KEEP DELTA-T VALUES AROUND 13-15 AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 5KFT SHOULD KEEP THE STRENGTH OF THE LES LIGHTER. SECOND...THERE WILL BE A VEERING WIND PROFILE STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS ISN/T CONDUCTIVE FOR A FOCUSED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED BAND THAT WILL STAY ORGANIZED OR IN ONE LOCATION FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. ALSO...MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT IN THE ACTUAL WIND DIRECTIONS (NAM IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WOULD LEAD TO FARTHER WEST AREA OF LAKE EFFECT INITIALLY). THIRD...LAKE FORCING IS BELOW THE DGZ AND WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW RATIOS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10-1 TONIGHT AND THEN POTENTIALLY FALLING TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 10-1 TOMORROW WITH THE DEEP CLOUD LAYER AND MOST OF THE FORCING BELOW 10-1. FINALLY...HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (INCLUDING NAM/NAMDNG/GEM-REGIONAL) HAVE ALL BE OVERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF LAKE EFFECT EVENTS AND LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THEIR ACCURACY. THAT BEING SAID...THEY STRUGGLED THIS MORNING (NOT SHOWING ANYTHING) WITH THE LES THAT WAS ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. THEREFORE...WITH THESE CONCERNS...HAVE LOWERED THE LAKE EFFECT PORTION OF THE SNOWFALL BY AN INCH OR SO FOR TONIGHT. BEST PRECIP/SNOW CHANCES LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY MORNING...AS IT BECOMES MORE LAKE ENHANCED...BUT VEERING WINDS AND LOW SNOW RATIOS SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO. WITH AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE 1-3 (AND LOCALLY 4IN) AMOUNTS...WILL CONTINUE THE SPS THAT WAS ISSUED ON THE MID SHIFT AND WEAKEN THE WORDING SLIGHTLY. BEHIND THE TROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C LEADS TO MARGINAL OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND WITH A VERY STRONG INVERSION AT 825MB (AROUND 5KFT)...CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED FOR ANYTING OF SIGNIFICANCE SNOW WISE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW AN INCH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013 MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS ON SAT NIGHT AS UPSLOPE NLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. AT 00Z SUN...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER -8C 850MB TEMPS. BY 18Z SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY NEUTRALLY CURVED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE DECREASED TO -11C. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT PRECIP IN N WIND SNOWBELTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PTYPE IS TRICKY AS VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP...BUT MOISTURE IN AND AROUND THE DGZ WILL BE LACKING FOR FROZEN PRECIP...AT LEAST INITIALLY. IT SEEMS PRECIP WOULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THAT BEING FROM 00Z-06Z SUN BEFORE COOLER TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WILL MAKE ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY SAT NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUN. THE PRECIP MAY LAST INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT...AND WILL STILL BE BORDERLINE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THAT TIME...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INVERSION TOP TEMPS MAKE JUSTIFYING SIGNIFICANT ADDITION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT HARD TO DO...SO KEPT WORDING FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LIMITED LATER ON. WHILE UPPER TROUGHING INCREASING OVER THE CWA ON MON...SO DOES SFC RIDGING. WIND FIELDS ARE DODGY ON MON...SO LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE PRECIP POSSIBILITIES ARE HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT GIVEN LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP LIMITED MON. THIS BEING SAID...GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON A SYSTEM THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER OVER SOME PART OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM...IN BOTH RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL COMPARISONS. AT THIS POINT ALL THAT CAN BE REASONABLY SAID IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAIN /AT LEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME/ OR SNOW /BETTER CHANCES/ DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ONE ASPECT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WRN AND NRN CONUS BY NEXT FRI...BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA STARTING AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT /WITH THE FASTER GFS/. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013 DRY AIR LEFT BEHIND FROM A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN) MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MID CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO INFLUENCE UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BRUSH NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT...LARGELY AT KCMX...AND HAVE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES THERE. KEPT CONDITIONS VFR AT KIWD/KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN AT KSAW FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM OBS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING A LACK OF LOW CLOUDS AND WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OPTED TO JUST MENTIONED SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS. ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013 A HIGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR (ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER PLATFORMS). THIS LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAINLY BELOW 25KTS. AS A HIGH MOVES FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT WILL STRETCH A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING WINDS BELOW 15KTS AND VEERING THEM TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 25KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 112108 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 408 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013 TWO MAIN ITEMS OF FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THE CONTINUED COLD WEATHER. LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS TO BE AROUND -24C. AT THE SURFACE...A LAKE INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR EASTERN LAKE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS PUSHING A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 925/850MB TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA AND STARTED TO BACK THE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE WEST...AS THE BANDS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME WEST-EAST ORIENTATED. THESE BACKING WINDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO REACH THE CENTRAL LAKE WHERE THE BANDS ARE NOW MORE IN A WNW DIRECTION AND WINDS AT STANNARD ROCK HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST. EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW TODAY...WITH REPORTS IN THE 2-8 INCH RANGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WINDS THIS EVENING...TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THESE BACKING WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE DOMINATE BAND SETTING UP OVER THE WEST (WITH THE HELP OF COASTAL CONVERGENCE)...LIKELY IN A SIMILAR LOCATION TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON MONDAY. UNLIKE MONDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING AND MUCH LOWER DUE TO THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. THIS COMPRESSES THE MOISTURE TO AROUND 5KFT FOR CLOUD TOPS...EVEN THOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REACH 8-9KFT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...IT DOES TRY TO PUSH THE BETTER LAKE FORCING INTO THE TOP OF THE DGZ...WHICH MAY AID SNOWFALL SIZE/RATIOS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST DAY. WITH THE AIDED CONVERGENCE DUE TO WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WOULD THINK THAT WOULD HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LEAD TO DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF KEWEENAW COUNTY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WHERE/WHEN IT WILL STALL TONIGHT. LOCAL HIRES WRF-ARW RUNS (WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL WITH LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST 24HRS) ARE DIFFERING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL GO...ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM...SO OPTED TO SHOW IT REACHING STOPPING AROUND THE HOUGHTON-MOHAWK AREA. THEREFORE...DID EXPAND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO THE LES ADVISORY. WAS TEMPTED TO BUMP UP TO A WARNING SINCE THERE WERE REPORTS OUT WEST WITH 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL IN THE COLDER AIR AND LESS DGZ INFLUENCE...BUT WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS BEING LOWER DECIDED TO KEEP AMOUNTS AT HIGH END ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THIS EVENING...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE WARNING AMOUNTS WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP. HEADING INTO THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS DOES PUSH MORE OF THE CLOUD INTO THE DGZ...WHICH COULD AID SNOWFALL RATIOS EVEN WITH THE CONTINUED LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH (INVERSION STAYS THE SAME). WINDS LOOK TO VEER TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH AGAIN...SO WOULD EXPECT LESS CONVERGENCE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE STRONG CONVERGENCE BAND TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH. AS FOR THE OTHER ADVISORIES...ENDED GOGEBIC/BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON EARLY AND ALSO TRENDED ONTONAGON TO AN EARLIER END TIME DUE THE STRONGEST BAND JUST BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THAT COUNTY. OVER THE EAST...THE BACKING WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO PUSH THE STRONGER BANDS NORTHEAST AND WOULD EXPECT THAT STEADY PUSH TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THIS STEADY PUSH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE STEADY/WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE 2-5IN RANGE. TIMING OF THE ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT LOOKS GOOD AND MAY BE ABLE TO END THE LUCE WARNING A COUPLE HOURS EARLY OVERNIGHT. AFTER THESE BANDS PUSH NORTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE WESTERLY (OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WSW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE THE TROUGH DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MOVE THE BANDS BACK ONSHORE. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN SEEN TODAY (RADAR INDICATED OF 10-11KFT THIS AFTN DECREASING TO 6-7KFT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON). EVEN SO...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NEXT TROUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER LUCE COUNTY. AS FOR THE COLD TEMPERATURES...ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WINDS. LOWS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRYING TO SLIDE IN AND THE MODELS SHOWING WINDS STRUGGLING TO DECOUPLE. BASED OFF INTERIOR LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT FALLING TO 4-7KTS...THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING IN. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO WITH THE COLDEST VALUES CONTINUING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL (LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO). WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AFTER THE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL LEAVE THAT AS IS. ONE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THOSE CLOUDS WILL STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT BUT MAY STREAM OVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE MID CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 549 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013 MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON CONTINUED COLD WEATHER AND PERSISTENT...THOUGH...GENERALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SOME SYSTEM SNOW ARRIVING SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE/INVERTED TROUGH...AND FINALLY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN MORE LES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. THURSDAY...THE AIRMASS MODERATES SOME AS BETTER WAA KICKS IN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOC MAY PRODUCE A FEW DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE WI BORDER. INITIAL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND WEAK SUPPORT SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT MOST PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND Q-VECT DIV AND ASSOC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FINALLY DISRUPT AND WEAKEN LES BANDS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN SHORELINE OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HRS. LES BANDS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE OF ERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING BY DEVELOPING WAA SW FLOW. INCREASING SW WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW THU MORNING WARRANTING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF WRN HALF INTERIOR. EXPECT GREATEST SNOWFALL (UP TO 4 INCHES) OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ESPECIALLY NEAR HOUGHTON IN CONVERGENT WRLY FLOW. THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS VEERING FM WNW THU EVENING TO MORE NRLY BY FRI MORNING IN WAKE OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING LES BACK ONSHORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CWA. INCREASED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO CONVERGING LAND BREEZES MAY ALLOW A MODERATE LES BAND OR TWO TO SET UP OVER THE ERN COUNTIES THU NIGHT IN CONVERGENT NW-NNW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...LACK OF GOOD LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM NORTH OF LAKE BENEATH LOWERING INVERSION HGTS AS NOTED ON GFS BUFR SNDGS SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT LES INTENSITY AND THUS ACCUMS. BY FRI AFTERNOON ANY REMAINING LES SHOULD BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS SFC-8H FLOW BCMS SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC. FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTH FRI EVENING TO EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO SLIDES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. DEVELOPING NE AND THEN ERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO REMAINING LIGHT LES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA. SOME LES COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN HALF OF MNM COUNTY IN NE-E FLOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO DEEP 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONV MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM MANITOBA WRN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIAL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS MAY DELAY ONSET OF SNOW AND LIMIT ACCUMS...FOR THAT REASON ONLY HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW ACROSS CWA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG Q-VECT CONV AHEAD OF VIGOROUS CLIPPER SHORTWAVE. ENHANCEMENT FROM SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER BOUT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST UPPER MI LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WIND SHIFTS NW IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. STRONGLY CONVERGENT NW FLOW FCST TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY FAVOR ERN COUNTIES FOR HIGHEST ACCUMS. PASSAGE OF LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NNE AND PUSH HEAVIER LAKE SNOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISH ANY REMAINING LES OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND ADVANCES IT QUICKER INTO THE REGION. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WAA SSW FLOW AND ENHANCEMENT ASSOC AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING IN SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY LES INTO SE AND FAR ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. WINDS VEERING WNW BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BRING BACK LES INTO NW AND NE PORTIONS OF UPPER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013 LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KCMX THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...IT SHOULD COMBINE WITH BLOWING SNOW TO PRODUCE IFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...EXPECT A STRONG BAND TO DEVELOP ON THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND IMPACT THE SITE AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL LIFT...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE BAND WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TAF SITE FOR A PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY IN THE TAF. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SITE. FOR KSAW/KIWD...THE UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR THE SITE WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS AT KIWD HAS BEEN PRODUCING BLSN AND HAVE MENTIONED MVFR VISIBILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 407 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRUSHES THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (THIS TIME FROM CENTRAL CANADA) NOSES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WINDS BELOW 20KTS. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF A LOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST...COULD SEE A INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY TO 25-30KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ002- 006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ007. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162-240>245-248>251-266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263>265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 180953 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 453 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013 NOTE...KCMX ISSUES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BUT SHOULD BE CORRECTED TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS CONTINUING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TROUGH IS PUTTING THE AREA INTO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS) HAS DRIFTED EAST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH HAS LED TO WEAKENING AND SLOWLY BACKING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN LAKE. THE BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY IN THE NIGHT HAS BEEN DEPARTING NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR IRONWOOD OVER THE LAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...OBS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND RADAR OVER THE EASTERN LAKE SHOWS THE LAKE EFFECT FOCUSED IN A COUPLE OF STRONGER BANDS. ONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE LAKE AND BRUSHING NORTHEAST LUCE COUNTY AND THE OTHER STRETCHES FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO JUST NORTH OF BIG BAY AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MELSTRAND. THIS STRONGER BAND HAS BEEN INDICATING AN INCH TO MAYBE 2 INCHES AN HOUR SNOWFALL IN A NARROW 4-5MI CORRIDOR NEAR MELSTRAND. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WAVERING OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT IT LOOKS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK SINCE LAND BREEZES INDICATED BY OBS AROUND MUNISING SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS THERE. BETWEEN THOSE BANDS...THE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED AS A POCKET COLDER 850MB TEMPS (RAP ANALYZED -17C) HAS MOVED OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WOULD EXPECT THIS LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF DAYLIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM THE CURRENT 7-9KFT TO BELOW 3KFT...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL STREAK AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. FARTHER SOUTH...POCKET OF DRIER AIR (BELOW 800-700MB) LEFT FROM THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EVEN WITH THE DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MOHAWK TO NE LUCE COUNTY AND THEN A 25-50MI CORRIDOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES JUST SOUTHWEST OF THAT AREA. THESE CHANCES SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE POCKET OF LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AND HAVE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S THERE. OVER THE WEST...THAT POCKET IS OVERCOME BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND THE MID 20S. BEHIND THE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND START TO SLIDE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 925MB TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE KEWEENAW WITH THAT TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER NORTHWEST DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE VERY SHALLOW...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3 TO MAYBE 4KFT AND EXPECT THAT TO LIMIT THE CLOUD DEPTH. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE 925-900MB TEMPS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISSUES WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST...WHILE GFS/GEM-REGIONAL AND LOCAL WRF-ARW ALL SHOW THE COLD AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. SINCE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND -6 TO -7C...THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR ENOUGH ICE CRYSTALS TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW AND OPTED TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. BUT AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES THROUGH THE NIGHT...TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW AROUND 09Z. WILL TREND POPS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIR...BUT JUST KEEP AT SLIGHTS AND A FEW LOW CHANCE VALUES. ALL IN ALL...SHOULDN/T BE MUCH ACCUMULATION OR ISSUES IF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...SINCE THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013 OVERALL...THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN LAKE HURON AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PBL WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY THU MORNING...HOWEVER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL CAUSE INVERSION LEVELS TO ONLY AROUND 3000 FT...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING CLOUD THICKNESS AT 2000 FT AT BEST. SO...DESPITE TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AROUND -16C...IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT LES WILL FALL ON THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE POPS IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS THAT AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALL DAY...BUT IT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ANY SNOWFALL WILL HAVE TO RELY THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WITH THE THE NAM BEING SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS THE MID-UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW...THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...BUT THAT MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED SO PERHAPS AN INCH OR LOCALLY TWO INCHES OF SNOW AT BEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SOME MORNING LES ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND EAST OF MUNISING...IT SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON FRIDAY NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES OF PCPN. THE NAM AND ECWMF SUGGEST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND HAVE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND GEM SUGGEST THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE THIS IS GENERALLY A NEW TREND FROM THE NAM AND ECWMF...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY PCPN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE ONSET FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. OVERALL...THE TIMING OF THE LOW IS GOOD WITH IT THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE NRN STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE GEM IS FURTHEST NORTH MOVING THE LOW THROUGH SRN LOWER MI ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TRACK AND CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT-SUN WITH LIKELY POPS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS WITH N-NE FLOW. BEHIND THIS LOW...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FOR MONDAY...THEN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013 ALL SITES SHOULD SEE GENERAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH WED MORNING AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SO INTRODUCED WORSENING CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013 SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING BEFORE A WEAK LOW CROSSES THE LAKE THIS EVENING. THUS...WINDS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25KTS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 20KTS. A LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AT TIMES. FINALLY...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 031943 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WELL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND A FEW LOWER 20S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ICE COVERAGE...THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER OVER THE EAST (EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND) TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. UPSTREAM...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY) HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CLOUDS ARE MORE SCATTERED AND HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND ALSO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH PUTTING OUT ANY QPF...THINK MENTIONING FLURRIES SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN MINNESOTA AND CANADA. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING THE FLURRIES UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE EVENING AND CONTINUED INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE. SINCE THE ICE COVERAGE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SOLID OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WINDS DO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT FLUXES OFF THE LAKE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD AND FLURRY SUPPORT. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY (FROM A STRONG HIGH OF 1054MB CENTERED IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES). SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AROUND 875MB AND POTENTIALLY TRAP ANY LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE 950-900MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND SINCE THE COVERAGE IS LARGER BEHIND THE FRONT IN CANADA...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE UPCOMING SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS. SINCE THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL LIMIT ANY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OFF THE POCKET OF OPEN WATER IN THE EASTERN QUARTER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BASED OFF THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE 950-900MB LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW CHANCES TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO NE LUCE COUNTY TOMORROW MORNING AND POTENTIALLY WEST TO THE GRAND MARAIS AREA. DID PUT SOME FLURRIES OVER WESTERN ALGER COUNTY SINCE LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF OPEN WATER IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM THE HURON ISLANDS TO SHOT POINT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH HEATING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST (A 40MI FETCH) WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLICATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVAL AND HOW LOW THEY REMAIN. IF SKIES STAY CLOUDY...EXPECT LOWS TO STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...WHILE IF CLEARING OCCURS IT WILL WILL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE (ALTHOUGH WITH A TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUDS) AND HAVE LOW AROUND ZERO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. WITH TODAY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...IT MARKS THE 60TH DAY IN A ROW THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THAT...WHICH PUTS US AT 3RD IN THE ALL-TIME LIST. WITH ONLY 12 MORE DAYS TO GO TO TIE...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE RECORD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 BENIGN WEATHER PATTER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH SUN AS FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL AND EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR LIMITS LES COVERAGE/CHANCES. REALLY...NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH JUST LOW 30 POPS BEING THE HIGHEST POP IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS W TO THE LOW TEENS E. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME BLOW SNOW TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU AND FRI. W-WSW WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 25KTS AT THAT TIME...AND WITH ICE COVERING MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW IS ESPECIALLY EXPOSED TO BLOWING SNOW. USED CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...BUT AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND NORTH DAKOTA...MOST SITES ARE AT VFR WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVFR WITH A SNOW SHOWER. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION -SHSN FOR KIWD/KCMX DUE TO THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. SINCE MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE IS ICE COVERED...HELD OFF ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LIMITED INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUEPRIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WHEN A LOW MOVES THROUGH HUDSON BAY...COULD SEE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE COVERED...SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 120827 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 327 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 A 1006MB LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH INTO HUDSON BAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF ELY MINNESOTA TO MONTEVIDEO MINNESOTA AT 08Z. IR IMAGERY AND RADAR BOTH SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND SNOW IS LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOCATED OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW...BUT MOST OF THE TIME THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE 3MI RANGE. EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE STILL IS LIGHT SNOW IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THAT IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE ON WV IMAGERY...THREE SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN...ONE SLIDING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO...ONE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THE THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH TWO OF THE SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE AREA...THE ONE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL CATCH UP WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARDS MID DAY. THE RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PULLS SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN WISCONSIN OVER THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO AN UPTICK IN QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THUS...HAVE TRENDED POPS UP TO DEFINITE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE BEST PRECIPITATION TRACKS THROUGH. THIS ENDS UP GIVING AROUND 0.06-0.13IN OF QPF EAST OF A BARAGA TO IRON RIVER LINE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (0.1-0.13) GENERALLY BETWEEN IRON MOUNTAIN...MUNISING...NEWBERRY AND WASHINGTON ISLAND. WITH SNOW RATIOS LOOKING LIKE THEY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEARLY 20 (BEST FORCING IS AT OR JUST BELOW DGZ AND THEN SNOW FALLS THROUGH DGZ)...SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1-2.5 INCHES OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW RATIOS COMING IN THIS MORNING FROM OBSERVERS...SINCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER THERMAL PROFILE WOULD QUICKLY PUSH SNOW RATIOS UP TOWARDS 25-30 TO 1 WHICH COULD CAUSE SNOW AMOUNTS TO TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER (NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA). WITH THE FRONT LAGGING BEHIND THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW...HAVE HELD ONTO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 18Z AND THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z. DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIMITING CLOUD DEPTHS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH HEATING OFF THE THIN ICE AREAS IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ADD ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE KEWEENAW. DID HOLD ONTO THEIR PRECIP THE LONGEST THOUGH DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG CATCHING UP TO THE COLD FRONT AROUND MID DAY OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARDS EVENING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12Z. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHIFTING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER 09Z AND DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE 875-700MB DRY LAYER CAN BE OVERCOME...IT MAY EVEN BE NEARING THE IRONWOOD AREA TOWARDS 12Z. DID INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST TO START TO SHOW THAT POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 429 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE STRONG S-SSW WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE ON THE ICE COVER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ALREADY SEE A GAP IN THE ICE WHEN VIEWING FROM ONE OF THE LOCAL WEBCAMS NEAR MARQUETTE HARBOR. THIS WILL BE OF GREAT IMPORTANCE FOR LATER THIS WEEK...ENHANCING ALREADY AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SNOW TOTALS. WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE OUR SHORT BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON ICE COVER. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONGER WINDS BLOWING FALLING SNOW...AND ANY SNOW THAT HAS ACCUMULATED FROM THE FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOREWARD. THERE IS ABOUT A 6HR DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SFC LOW PASSAGE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 11/12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...HOWEVER THE 11/09Z SREF IS NEARLY ON PACE WITH THE GFS...JUST 80-120MI N OF THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE WIND FIELD...AND THE QPF. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN...WITH THE 24 TOTAL QPF PRIOR TO 12Z FRIDAY /ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EVENT/ VARIES FROM A CWA AVERAGED 0.15IN OFF THE 11/00Z AND 11/12Z ECMWF RUNS TO THE MUCH HIGHER 0.30IN 11/12Z GFS SOLUTION. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO/EHWO. CURRENTLY FCSTING AROUND 0.2IN CWA WIDE...WITH THE MOST N CENTRAL. THIS ACCUMULATES TO 2-5IN OF SNOW EVEN WITH SLR RANGING FROM 14-18:1. SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AS MAINLY N WINDS OF 15-25KTS BLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE E HALF OF UPPER MI. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY...IN THE LOW TEENS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. WINDS WILL RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE POPS FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A REDUCTION WAS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SFC HIGH SET UP OVERHEAD NOT ALLOWING THE NEXT PLAINS LOW ANYWHERE NEAR THE CWA. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPS MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AND EITHER ACROSS UPPER MI OR MAINLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE 850MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT AROUND -7 TO -4C MONDAY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1128 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 SSW WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO ELIMINATE THE NEED TO CARRY LLWS. WITH THE LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING...A BAND OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ARRIVING AROUND TAF ISSUANCE TIME AT KIWD/KCMX AND THEN AROUND 09Z AT KSAW. WITH THE COMBINATION OF -SN AND SOME BLSN...VIS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HRS AT KSAW WHERE FAVORED WIND DIRECTION WOULD CREATE MORE BLSN THERE. QUICK ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW FROM W-E...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTENOON AT KIWD AND KSAW. WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT KCMX THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. SOME OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR YESTERDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SINCE THE GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL LEAVE AS IS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND BRING A FAIRLY QUICK DIMINISHING TREND TO THE GUSTS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15KTS THIS EVENING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH...BUT THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. THIS LOW WILL CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RISE UP TO 20-30KTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE AROUND MID DAY THURSDAY. THEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS LOW AND LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 010851 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 451 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN TOPIC INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT UNTIL 3Z...AS HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVER THE FAR W /IWD TO CMX/...AND MAX TEMPS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RH VALUES WILL BE LINGERING NEAR THE CRITICAL 25 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THROUGH THE NE THANKS. WINDS REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES...SO WILL KEEP JUST THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT GOING AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT E AT RACO...AS IT AS BEEN THE CLOSEST TO RFW VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE HAS GENERALLY BEEN SPARSE...ROUNDING THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH HAS KEPT THE TRAIN OF MOISTURE OVER N WI UP THROUGH FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...A QUICK SHOWER DID PUSH OVER IWD...WITH CU POPPING UP OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA. AS WE LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY SWINGING UP ACROSS MN WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOOK FOR MORE S GUSTS OF 15-20KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. MAY STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR E ZONES FOR FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK INTO THIS FURTHER. OTHERWISE...THE W STILL LOOKS TO GET 0.25-05IN OF RAIN BY 00Z MONDAY. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF TS IN THE FCST...WITH ONLY LIMITED SHEAR EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z MONDAY (LIKELY AROUND SOUTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR OR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN). THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (FROM IDAHO THROUGH NEVADA) AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THEY WILL HELP STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES) TO AROUND 997MB AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS HAS IT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN 00-09Z ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. ONE THING TO WATCH IS BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE COME IN MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK (MOVING IT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MINNESOTA)...BUT IT MAY BE TIED MORE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. FIRST WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY MORNING...AS FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND LEADS TO BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL INITIALLY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE BROAD WAA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THAT WAA TAKES SHAPE...WOULD EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED OFF THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT. AS THAT SHIFT NORTH...ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OR TROUGH...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION...AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LARGELY AFFECT THE WEST/CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. BEHIND THIS CONVECTION...EXPECT DRY MID LEVEL AIR TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES. THINK THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. PWATS ARE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A TALL/SKINNY CAPE (MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG) WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 10KFT. CONSISTENT WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WOULD SUPPORT SLOW RELATIVE MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IF BACKBUILDING CAN OCCUR AS SEEN IN CORFIDI VECTORS. ALL OF THIS ADDS UP TO A DECENT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THINK OTHER SEVERE THREATS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED...UNLESS THE AFTERNOON STORMS CAN TAP SOME OF THE MID LEVEL DRYING AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND BEHIND THE LOW AND HELP FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY WOULD SUPPORT HAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA (BEST CHANCES OVER THE WEST). THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THERE TO BE FOG OVER A GOOD PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED WIND DIRECTIONS ON WHERE TO PULL THE FOG ONSHORE. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO AFFECT SOME OF THE SHORELINE AREAS. BEHIND THE LOW...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST FROM NEBRASKA TO OHIO ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN AND FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION JUST OFF TO THE WEST AND PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL EARLY JUNE VALUES. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY ON WILL BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE PREEXISTING NORTHERLY FLOW AND HELP FROM ANY LAKE BREEZES THAT DEVELOP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IWD HAS THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CEILINGS BY 13Z SUNDAY WITH THE PCPN AND PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN THE MORNING FOR THAT. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT. DID PUT LLWS IN ALL SITES AS WINDS OFF THE SFC ARE STRONG OVERNIGHT. KEPT VIS IN THE VFR RANGE...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR WOULD GIVE MVFR VIS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT THE STEADY STATE TROUGH OVER MN...STRETCHED BETWEEN AN EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND LOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE LAKE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S JAMES BAY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE CENTRAL CANADIAN HIGH TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 080902 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 402 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 902 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 WEATHER HAS BECOME QUIET THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER THE EAST MAY HAVE TAPERED OFF AS A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...BUT BASED ON RADAR ECHOES THAT IS LIKELY FINISHED UP AS WELL. ADVY WILL EXPIRE ON TIME. HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF LGT SLEET AND LGT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WI BORDER AND BASED ON VSBY FM KLNL TO KMNM THAT MAY STILL BE ONGOING. A WEAK AREA OF LIFT IN LOW-MID LEVELS COMES THROUGH UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND THIS MAY ENHANCE WHATEVER LIGHT PRECIP IS OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPES OVER CNTRL CWA AND THE KEWEENAW. OVERALL COOLING TEMPS BLO INVERSION SHOULD TRANSITION MOST OF THIS LGT FREEZING PRECIP BACK TO FLURRIES/LGT SNOW...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. WILL KEEP PATCHY FZDZ IN GRIDS FOR SCNTRL CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SHOW LARGE RANGE...WITH LOWEST TEMPS OVER FAR EAST /DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/ WHERE EAST WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLING OFF ONTARIO. THICKER LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS WELL INTO THE TEENS OVER WEST HALF OF CWA. AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE H8-H7 LURKING JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR SINKS SOUTH OVER LK SUPERIOR AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY MORNING AS H7 WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SETUP SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT AND OVER NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED COOLING IN MOIST LAYER AS TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION FALL BLO -15C. THOUGH POPS ARE HIGH...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVERSION STAYING BLO 4KFT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 THE NAM LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN CORRECT...AT LEAST PARTIALLY...BRINGING IN A THIN BAND OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF W UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. HAD A REPORT OF AROUND 25 MIN OF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING INTO SLEET 4MI E OF SILVER CITY IN ONTONAGON. GIVEN THE LIMITED DURATION ANTICIPATED...COVERED THE MIXED PRECIP WITH AN SPS. COULD SEE THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM 16-18Z AT AROUND 20KTS. ANOTHER POCKET OF FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED AROUND L'ANSE SHORTLY BEFORE 21Z...ONCE AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE HIGHEST SNOW AND LOWEST VIS ACROSS THE N TIER OF UPPER MI STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...AS THE BULK OF SNOW EXITS TO THE NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW...AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO E ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE N HALF OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. CURRENTLY SEEING A BREAK IN THE STEADY SNOW OVER THE NW SECTOR. THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 4KFT AND A SLIVER OF THE DGZ SHOWING BELOW 3KFT...EXPECT SLR VALUES TO STAY AROUND 10-15:1. LOOK FOR ONLY SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE SNOW COVERAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH MARQUETTE COUNTY. THIS WILL BE AS WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE SE...PUSHING ANY DOMINANT BAND FROM THE N PORTIONS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY AND OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MORE ACROSS CMX AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS THROUGH BIG BAY AND DOWN TOWARDS NEGAUNEE/ISHPEMING. WHILE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FAR S CENTRAL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...THE CHANCE LOOKS VERY SMALL. WILL KEEP JUST A MENTION IN THE FCST...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 MUCH OF THE FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE COLD AIR SURGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM A HIGH SLIDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3-4KFT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH 925-900MB TEMPS AROUND -12C...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT THINK THE LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH WILL LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS WINDS WEAKEN HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR APPEARS TO START WORKING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD AT LEAST BREAK UP SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE LAKE/TERRAIN INFLUENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT DID LIKE THE IDEA SHOWN BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES WORK BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY MORNING...AS ANOTHER POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WIND. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND REDEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AN INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION (AIDED BY MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION). OVERALL...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FORCING (ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THROUGH LARGELY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF LIKELY VALUES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS (DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND WHETHER THEY STAY SOUTH OF OR MOVE THROUGH THE CWA)...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.1-0.2 INCH OF QPF. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE THERMAL PROFILE...AS MUCH OF THE FORCING RIGHT NOW IS ON THE EDGE OF THE DGZ AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL 13-15 TO 1 FOR NOW...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO 1-3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA UNDER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR...850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -10C TUESDAY NIGHT TO -22C WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 8KFT) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS...QUICKLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL FOCUS THE SNOW IN THOSE FAVORED AREAS. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS/SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL (AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA) WHERE THE LONGEST ICE FREE FETCH IS LOCATED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE ICE AROUND ISLE ROYALE SHORTING THE FETCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL BE IN THE DGZ DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT...THINK THE STRONG WINDS (25-35KTS) WILL FRACTURE THE FLAKES AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. BUT THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND WILL CONTINUE THAT HEIGHTENED WORDING IN THE HWO. EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...AS AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL CANADA LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ON THURSDAY (HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO)...THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A COLD NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST (INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO) AND COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR WHAT OCCURRED A FEW MORNINGS AGO (-20S IN THE COLD SPOTS) IF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE...LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN (RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA) SO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE DOMINANT PTYPE AT THE TAF SITES MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES TOWARD MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY EASE AT KSAW AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. FOR THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES AT TIME...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX AS THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2015 OUR STEADY E TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KS OVER FAR W AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. BEFORE THEN...EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/. LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY/N ONTARIO...AND A LOW STRETCHING FROM SD THROUGH IA. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE HIGH TO THE N WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE SHIFTING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES W TO E ACROSS ONTARIO. A LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SHIFT TO ONTARIO AND W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NW GALES OF 35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162-263-264-266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 051940 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 340 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 INTERESTING WEATHER SITUATION SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EVENTUALLY...THE TRUE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE 70S WILL PASS N OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH MEANS A HOT AND VERY HUMID SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.P. ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN UPPER MI AND NW WISC. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS MINIMAL AT BEST. HOWEVER..GIVEN THAT THERE ARE ALREADY SHOWERS TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE HURON MTNS AND FAR SOUTHERN UPPER MI...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED THE SFC WARM FRONT AND NOSE OF THE LOW JET MOVING INTO NRN MN. WITH THE BEST UPPER FORCING...MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS LATE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...BETTER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES MOVE INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL U.P. SUN MORNING...SO A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING MAY BE POSSIBLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...WHICH IS QUITE REMARKABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ANY STORM EVEN SUNDAY MORNING...COULD SEE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE MBE VECTORS BEING LESS THAN 5KT AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 12KFT. AFTER THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BREAK IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUN AFTN...THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH THE NOSE OF THE LLJ OVER THE FAR WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000+ J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEARLY 6.5 C/KM. WITH THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT...20-30KT OF 0- 3KM SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STRAIGHT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH...COULD NOT RULE OUT ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS DUE TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CORES. LARGE HAIL DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A LARGE THREAT SUN AFTN GIVEN THE EXTREMLY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 14KFT. MAIN CONCERN LATE SUN AFTN ACROSS THE WEST WOULD BE ONCE AGAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MBE VECTORS ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO LESS THAN 5KT. EVEN THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CELLS WILL ONLY BE GOING ABOUT 10KT AND TRAINING LOOKS LIKELY. REGARDLESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES...WHICH MEANS ANY STORM WILL HAVE EXTREMELY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER FORCING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SUCH...HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST SUN AFTN ACROSS THE WEST. FINALLY...SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING ONE OF THE MORE HUMID DAYS OF THE SUMMER. WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE IOWA THAN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE HEAT INDEX. PEOPLE OUTDOORS ON SUNDAY WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO PREPARE FOR THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...HELPING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN MN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN UPPER MI...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN MN AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CO-LOCATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE U.P. AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P. WILL SEE AROUND OR JUST UNDER 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO TIME OF DAY...THE HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 14-15KFT ALONG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL LIKELY LAG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DRIER AIR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD INDICATE...AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTIONED...HEAVIER RAIN MAY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FAR EASTERN U.P. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE FAR EASTERN U.P. EARLY IN THE MORNING...AS DRY AIR AND A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P...BRINGING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO SLIDE OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS FAIRLY DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THAT ZONAL FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT. TUESDAY NIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS HINTED THAT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA. THE GEM HAD MORE MOISTURE THAN THE 00Z EC/GFS. THE 12Z EC HAD THE AREA DRY AND THE 00Z GFS HAD THE U.P. DRY...BUT THE LATEST EC AND THE GEM DID KEEP MORE MOISTURE AROUND. DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS AND TIMING OF FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST SEVERAL PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 CONDITIONS NOW VFR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE REMAINING MORNING FOG/STATUS HAS BURNED OFF. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT KIWD OR EVEN KCMX LATE TONIGHT IN SUN MORNING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL. KSAW WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR VSBYS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR VSBYS/CIGS AGAIN AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE IFR VSBYS FROM OCCURRING. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE VERY SUMMER LIKE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 FOG WILL REMAIN THE BIG CONCERN UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. REALLY NOT MUCH FOG ON THE LAKE RIGHT NOW...BUT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD NOT RISE MORE THAN 20-25KT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY ON MONDAY THEN DECREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. OVERALL...NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET ON THE LAKE WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...MRD MARINE...MRD  FXUS63 KMQT 170827 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 327 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SPOTTIER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF RAIN WHICH ARE MOVING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.P. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOLLOWED BY MARINE ISSUES. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPOTTY OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THOUGH. SOUTHEAST WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP A FEED OF DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN THIS PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHEAST WIND...LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL BOOST PWATS THROUGH THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING IN A WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. THEN THE NAM/GFS BRING IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHENS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH ARGUES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING FROM 986MB AT 12Z WEDNESDAY TO 969MB BY 06Z THURSDAY...AS IT PHASES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WINDY SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE U.P.. BEFORE THE WIND ARRIVES...ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AN INVERSION SETUP BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 925MB WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 25KTS AND MAYBE A FEW GUSTS TO 30-35KTS OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND). AS THOSE SHOWERS DEPART...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS (TRANSITIONING TO SNOW) ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA AND THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE (FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA) MOVES THROUGH THE U.P. THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHIFT THE WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...LIKELY LIMITING LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THURSDAY (ALONG WITH THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER). THUS...THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GREAT SETUP (DEEPENING LOW...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS) FOR AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLY SOME THE OTHER SHORELINE AREAS OF THE WESTERN U.P.. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH END WIND ADVISORY...BUT THINK THE KEWEENAW COULD BE NEARING HIGH WIND WARNING VALUES TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING (BETWEEN 21-00Z) AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRUSHES THAT AREA WITH STRONGER PRESSURE RISES AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST. ONCE THAT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL BRING A BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETUP TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM -8C AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY TO -12C BY MID DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL IMPROVE...LOWERING CEILINGS TOWARDS 3KFT VS THE 4-5KFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 10KFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS THERE...BUT THINK THE WINDS (STILL 35-40KTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY) WILL LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND ALSO FRACTURE THE FLAKES AS THEY FALL (KEEPING RATIOS LOWER THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED IN LAKE EFFECT). THUS...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL FLAKES WILL LEAD TO GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALSO FOR FRIDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO THE 6 TO MAYBE 8KFT RANGE...WHICH WILL START TO INHIBIT THE CLOUD DEPTH FOR STRONGER LAKE EFFECT WITH BASES STILL LOOKING TO BE AROUND 3KFT. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THEIR DIFFERENCES ARE TIED TO THE STRENGTH AND HOW WRAPPED UP THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE 00Z GFS MAINTAINS ITS CONSISTENT IDEA OF A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS IDEA HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS WITH THE GEM AND 00Z ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE BIG 3 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ONLY SEE LIMITED SUPPORT OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT STRONGER SOLUTION. WHILE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE AROUND -12 TO -14C AND WITH GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND DEALING WITH COARSER MODELS (TO GET TOO GOOD OF A HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE FIELDS)...BUT THE SETUP COULD BE DECENT FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AND DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015 INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF LOW PRES ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. AT ALL TERMINALS...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LLWS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD... ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OF A DIRECTIONAL CHANGE OF WIND IN THE SHEAR LAYER. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL SPREAD TO KCMX LATER IN THE NIGHT AND TO KSAW THIS MORNING. WITH SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT KSAW DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 346 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015 A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SHORELINES EXPOSED TO WINDS FROM THESE DIRECTIONS WILL SEE WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET DEVELOP...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WATERS WILL SEE NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD GALES TO OCCUR HOWEVER. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD GALES ARE LIKELY. NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SL/MPC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...MPC  FXUS63 KMQT 260821 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 EXPECT BUILDING 5H RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MID- UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO 18- 20C IN A WSW FLOW. EXPECT INLAND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN LOWER 90S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER TYPICAL WARM SPOT LOCATIONS LIKE KENTON...BARAGA OR LA BRANCHE. STILL EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE. WITH RAP MODEL SHOWING MLCAPES 200-700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ITS POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF INHIBITING FACTORS FOR SHRA/TSRA WHICH INCLUDE DRY AIR NOTED BELOW 800 MB OFF RAP SNDGS...MID-LVL (700-500 MB) LAPSE RATES AROUND ONLY 6C/KM AND MID-LVL Q-VECT DIV AS RIDGE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM. HIGH PRES OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SNEAK IN OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTH WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT UPPER MI SHOULD STAY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO A NICE DAY OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EAST OF THE BAY DE NOCS AND ALSO OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. LAKE BREEZES IN BOTH AREAS SHOULD BE AID THOSE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES...WHILE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SUPERIOR CONFINED TO THE SHORELINE. THAT LAKE BREEZE OVER THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. THE FOCUS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING TO THE 990S MB RANGE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PINNING DOWN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS TRICKY AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE EVOLUTION BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE WARM/MOIST ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.9IN AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S) WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT HELPS WEAKEN ANY CAPPING IN PLACE TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOUR PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...EXPECT THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1-2K J/KG RANGE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TRY TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30KTS. THINK THOSE BORDERLINE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH THE REALLY WARM AIR (FREEZING LEVELS OF 14-15KFT)...WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...THEY WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN FACTORING IN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TOWARDS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE KEEP THE STORMS MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AND END TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND BRINGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND A HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON ML WINDS OF 25-30KTS DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT THEY SHOULDN/T BE AS STRONG AS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...SO WON/T GO OVER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS LOWER MI SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN AFTERNOON THAT MAY AFFECT KSAW BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER S MANITOBA LATE TUESDAY WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS  FXUS63 KMQT 270750 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 350 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 WARM S-SW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND A WEAK LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE MAKING IT A FEW MILES INLAND IS THE FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS MAINLY E UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS /WITH A FEW TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ UNTIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN LIGHTER WINDS WILL DIMINISH THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THUNDER BAY RADAR FOR POP UP SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BETTER MOISTURE...AND HIGHER SHEAR. UNSURE OF HOW MUCH WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO W AND NW LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH FCST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS THERE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT 10-15F WARMER THAN CLIMO NORMAL VALUES AS THE 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S...CAN NOT RULE OUT FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE AN EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TIME SLIDING INLAND MONDAY...WITH S WINDS OF 5-10KTS FOR MOST. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WITHIN 4F OF WHAT WAS REALIZED TODAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND MOVING OVER LAKE WINNIPEG BY TUESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LIFT NORTHEAST. THINK A LOT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THIS CONVECTION AND ITS AFFECT ON THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...BUT THINK IT WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA WITH WILL WORK COMBINE WITH THE CAPPING CAPPING AROUND 850MB (TEMPS RISING TO 17-19C)...WHICH WILL KEEP DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING UNTIL THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING NEAR THE CWA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ARE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. BETWEEN THIS CAPPING AND THE FRONT (LOCATED IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY STRETCHING NORTH FROM IOWA THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. MODELS SHOWING THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500 J/KG) OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT INDICATE THAT NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY PUSHING FARTHER NORTH TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AREA AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS STORM MOTION VECTORS AND MOVEMENT FROM THE FRONT WOULD LIFT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD NEED DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO LEAD TO THE STORMS AFFECTING THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH AFFECT THE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO LIKE THE WAY THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH THEIR QPF AND INDICATING MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THAT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH WILL DECAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE INSTABILITY REALLY WEAKENING...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THREAT TO BE VERY LIMITED FOR THE EASTERN CWA. OVER THE WEST...THINK HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (AROUND 14KFT) AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH. THOSE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY 20-30KTS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. BUT IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED...THE THREAT FOR HAIL WOULD INCREASE. IN ADDITION...THINK WIND IS A CONCERN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO INCREASE DCAPE VALUES. ALSO...SUBSTANTIAL DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LOCATED. WITH THE WARMING OF THE WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN LAKE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...DON/T THINK THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE WINDS AND EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 40KT (AND POSSIBLY 45KTS) GUSTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE BEST CORE OF WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE. THOSE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE PORKIES UP THROUGH THE KEWEENAW. HAVE TRENDED THE GUSTS UP A LITTLE MORE FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA (TOWARDS 35KTS)...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS TOWARDS COPPER HARBOR WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 20KTS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A POCKET OF CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL (850-700MB) TROUGH AXIS...WHICH MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY...WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AND LOWER 80S OVER THE EAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS (THE KEWEENAW) WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXPECT PASSING CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS MOISTURE IS REALLY LACKING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA (HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LIKE THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE IS LACKING AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE.THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND WILL COME ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA (SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIEST). THAT FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART SUNDAY MORNING AND ALLOW A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS UPPER MI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL RACE ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS NEARING 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 271044 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 544 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NAMERICA. IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF IS SWINGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTIC SNOW AHEAD OF FEATURE HAS ESSENTIALLY EXITED THE FCST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY THINNING OUT FROM THE W...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C...UNORGANIZED LES IS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY...SOME OF IT MODERATE INTENSITY. IN THE SRN STREAM...A STRONG/VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER FAR NRN MEXICO JUST S OF NM. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE UPPER LAKES AS IT EJECTS NE...THOUGH IT WILL BE UNRAVELING AS IT ENTERS THE CONFLUENT FLOW WHERE THE 2 STREAMS CONVERGE IN THE VCNTY OF THE THE UPPER LAKES. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING TO UPPER MI. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIMINISHING MOISTURE DEPTH TODAY AS INVERSIONS FALL TO 4-5KFT. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN DGZ FALLING INTO THE CONVECTIVE LAYER INDUCED BY THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE THIS WILL WORK TO FLUFF UP THE SNOW/RAISE SNOW-TO-WATER RATIOS...LARGER SCALE CONDITIONS (LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE NW) ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR HEADLINE WORTHY LES SNOW AMOUNTS. AREAS AFFECTED BY LES WILL BE SHIFTING TODAY AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO NW. OVERALL...EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS E OF MARQUETTE MAY SEE UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES. AS STRONG HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...WINDS VEER...BECOMING E TO ENE BY 12Z MON. AS LES SHIFTS FOLLOWING THE VEERING WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AND IN LUCE COUNTY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AS WINDS SHIFT THRU THE NE DIRECTION...FAVORABLE UPSLOPING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED LES ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND INVERSION HEIGHT AOB 4KFT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY...THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND DGZ OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE CLOUD DEPTH COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFF WHERE UPSLOPING IS MAXIMIZED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE FAVORED AREAS. ELSEWHERE...IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN THE INTERIOR...TEMPS COULD FALL TOWARD ZERO. BEST CHC OF AT LEAST SOME CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT WOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...BUT ALSO THE FAR E LATE WHERE DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW CLOUDS. WITH BETTER SNOW COVER OVER THE W...FCST WILL SHOW MIN TEMPS DOWN TOWARD 5F WITH THE IDEA OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A TIME. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 511 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 NEARLY ALL FOCUS REMAINS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. LOWERING INVERSIONS WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW BELTS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WREAKING HAVOC ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE KICKED NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH MOVING ON THE WEST COAST TODAY. THE NEWLY PHASED TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN TURNS TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WHILE DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ENSEMBLES AND INCREASING RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF SEVERAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRODUCE MORE CONFIDENCE INTO THE FORECAST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SW WI AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TO NORTHERN LOWER MI AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...PLACING UPPER MI IN A FAVORABLE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SETUP. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX ON THE 285 TO 300K THETA SURFACES UNDER A SLOPED MID-LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION BAND SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7C/KM IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FGEN. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND RETREATING STRONG HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI...COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40MPH TUESDAY EVENING. NOW...ON TO A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL AFFECT THE SNOWFALL. A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WITH EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP MONDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY LATER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BY 00Z TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING ALONG THE WI BORDER UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z. THEN...SOME GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE- FREEZING WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS THE SE CWA MONDAY EVENING...BUT DRY ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WET BULB TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN. WITH THAT SAID...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WET SNOWFALL...WITH RATIOS POSSIBLY BELOW 10 TO 1 AT TIMES. OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS IN QUESTION WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS NO COLDER THAN -10C. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE TOTALS FOR THE EAST WIND SNOW BELTS. UPSLOPE INFLUENCES ALSO LOOK TO BE QUITE PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FGEN AND THE FACT THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL BE TURNING EASTWARD WHILE THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IS LESS CLEAR. A FAIRLY SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BANDED SNOW AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. MOREOVER...SOME GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN GEM KEEP THE WESTERN CWA OUT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. ON TO HEADLINES AND TOTALS...PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM BARAGA AND IRON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES FOR HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS. A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF VERY WET SNOW ACROSS THE UPSLOPE/LAKE INFLUENCED HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WEST...ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW. REST OF THE PERIOD...A PAIR OF MOISTURE-STARVED MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE SET TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH RATHER BROAD FORCING...NEITHER LOOK TO BRING MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. LES FOR THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THESE TROUGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 LAST OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE HELPING INTENSIFY SNOW BAND IMPACTING KSAW EARLY THIS FORECAST. LIFR CIGS AT THAT SITE WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BEFORE REACHING LOW END OF MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS THE TRANSITION TO LES CONTINUES WITH MVFR VSBYS IMPROVING THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AT KCMX AND KSAW AFTER 18Z WITH LES SNOW. WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 543 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL OCCUR OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT TIMES TODAY. HEADING THRU MON/MON NIGHT/TUE...A WEAKENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES RESIDES N AND NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF EASTERLY GALES DEVELOPING MON AFTN AND CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THRU TUE AND WILL BE UNDER 20KT WED AS BROAD LOW PRES LINGERS OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED NIGHT/THU BTWN DEPARTING LOW PRES AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ004>006-085. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012>014. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ010-011. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244>248-264>267. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ162-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...RJT MARINE...ROLFSON  FXUS63 KMQT 272007 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 307 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 AS OF 09Z THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS SHIFTED E OF A LINE FROM NORWAY TO AUTRAIN...WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SET UP ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. THE ELONGATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED OUR AREA YESTERDAY HAS SINCE BEEN ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL-E LAKE HURON AND DIVIDE LOWER MI IN HALF. WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP OVER THE N PLAINS MOVING IN...EXPECT THE N WINDS TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -14C WILL BE COMMON...HOWEVER WITH THE QUICKLY EXITING DEEP MOISTURE...WHAT/S LEFT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 900MB. PLENTY OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER...AND THE BEST AREA FOR SNOW GROWTH HOVERING AROUND 600MB...COULD ASSIST IN THE FORMATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE S CENTRAL AND E THROUGH THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH AS THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS. SFC TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BUDGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOWS ...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 20S FOR ALL BUT AREAS ALONG THE LAKE MI BORDER WHERE LOWS 30S AREA MORE LIKELY. IT/S UNCERTAIN JUST HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO EXIT THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO FALL TONIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE IS SET UP OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. WENT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND LOOKING AT THE CFSV2 AND LONG RANGE ECMWF ENSEMBLES...THAT PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF DECEMBER. JUMPING BACK TO THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND A UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA THE AREA WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE THING TO MENTION. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY VEER THE BL WINDS AROUND TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TURN TO THE NORTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 920MB MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS...THE CLOUD DEPTH IS SHALLOWER AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED OFF THE INDICATED LOW CLOUDS ON THE NAM/GFS FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK OUT OF THE AREA. WITH AS LOW AS THE CLOUDS ARE INDICATED IN MODELS TODAY...MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF VALUES SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WHICH INCREASES THE RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P.. EXPECT THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THEN EXPECT JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE WAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SNOW AS THE AREA OF FORCING FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND IS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE WESTERN U.P.. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW...AS THE MID LEVELS QUICKLY DRY OUT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH COLDER THAN -5C. THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 AS A HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPR LKS AND WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WSW TNGT...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. CMX WL BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AS THE BACKING FLOW UPSLOPES THERE FOR A LONGER TIME. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015 N WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER E LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WILL EXIT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS TO BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL BECOMING SUPPRESSED...AND REPLACED BY A WEAK THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW SHIFTING ACROSS HUDSON BAY. SW WINDS FUNNELING BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 30KTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 281929 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 229 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 229 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE UNDER THE LOW INVERSION AROUND 2-3KFT AND WHERE 900MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -6C...OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SAW SOME GUSTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO 30-33KTS THIS MORNING AND EVEN UP TO 27KTS AT KCMX. THOSE GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN MAKING IT FEEL COOLER THAN THE 32 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OVER THE KEWEENAW...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES ARIGHT AROUND 20. ELSEWHERE...2PM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. UPSTREAM...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE SEEN IN NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE CLOUD LAYER...THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAVE THE CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT IDEA FOR THE FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SINCE 900MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER TOMORROW MORNING THAN TODAY...THINK THE LAKE WILL HELP SUPPORT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THAT LAKE HELP WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SHSN OR MAYBE EVEN -FZDZ. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR PRECIP TYPE IS HOW LOW THE CLOUDS WILL BE AND TIED TO THE RESULTING FORCING. NAM...WHICH TENDS TO OVER DO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IS SHOWING CEILINGS ONLY AROUND A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND. THAT WOULD PUT A LOT OF THE FORCING AT OR WARMER THAN -5C AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ. THE GFS ON THE OTHER-HAND...HAS THE CLOUD BASES IN THE 1-2KFT...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE CLOUD DEPTH AND AT THE SAME TIME PUT THE CLOUDS MORE IN THE ICE NUCLEATION AREA. BELIEVE THE PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW BUT COULDN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE -FZDZ AND ADDED THAT WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW. LESS UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID INCLUDE FLURRIES WITH THE LAKE SUPPORT IN THAT AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES TUE AND EXITING THE ERN LAKES WED NIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A 3K FT INVERSION WILL SRPEAD ACROSS MUCH OR UPPER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE LAYER ONLY DROP TO AROUND -8C. THE LIGHT PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED YET...BUT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. WITH SOME CLEARING INLAND TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. OTHERWISE...READINGS WILL REMAIN INTHE LOW TO MID 20S. MON...THE SFC RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT MAX READINGS MAY BE HELD INTO THE LOWER 30S. MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE TROWAL REGION MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PCPN AMOUNTS IS STILL LIMITED. QPF VALUES MAINLY IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WRN THIRD WITH A MIX OF RAIN POSSIBLE CNTRL...ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...MAINLY RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL. NAM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET AS THE PCPN SHIELD MOVES TO THE NORTH. SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE AND AMOUNT OF WARMING AT THE SFC...THE FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION JUST RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW. WITH LOW SLR VALUES...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST WOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW...SHOULD ALSO BE MINIMAL AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -3C. WED-FRI...MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MSVALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WRN LAKES WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE THE TAF FORECAST...BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SINK LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE THE CLOUDS TO FIRST IMPACT KCMX AND THEN MOVE INTO KSAW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AFFECTING KSAW. EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THESE MVFR (BORDERLINE IFR AT KSAW) TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY EVENING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 229 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 AFTER GUSTING TO A LITTLE OVER 30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT...RETURNING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY GALES AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW NEARS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25KTS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 241113 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 713 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 712 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2018 ...Wet Friday ahead, especially south central... Water vapor and IR imagery early this morning shows cloud cover streaming across the UP earlier than previously forecast. This is serving to keep overnight temperatures a couple degrees warmer in some locations. Bumped down highs a degree or two for today as well with the added cloudiness. The approaching closed upper low will cross our area overnight tonight, but much of the precipitation is on the leading edge. Early this morning, thunderstorms are developing north of the Twin Cities and headed towards Duluth. Most of the models are slightly under-representing the location of the instability associated with this activity, so I chose to expand thunderstorm potential slightly. These showers and storms will begin to affect western Lake Superior shortly, and should reach the western UP by just after sunrise. Coverage will increase throughout the day, and breezy conditions are expected once again with southerly gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible. The focus for showers and storms will turn to the south-central and east overnight as the core of the upper circulation moves through. The highest rainfall totals of 0.50 to 0.75 inches are expected from Menominee into Schoolcraft counties, with locally over an inch possible if heavier storms develop later today. PWAT values are progged to reach 1.6-1.8 inches this afternoon and evening near MNM and IMT. The Keweenaw Peninsula will see the least amount of rain, likely under 0.25 inches. If the rain can manage to clear the western counties, some patchy fog development would be possible late tonight. However, model soundings are hinting towards more of a low stratus event at this time. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 245 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2018 Nam has a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat with a ridge across the sern U.S. This ridge gets flattened a bit as a trough moves into the Rockies by 12z Mon. Looks humid for this weekend and did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Rockies 12z Mon with a ridge across the sern U.S. A shortwave affects the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue with troughing remaining into Wed over the area. A sfc front gets hung up south of the area and stalls out Wed through Fri. Temperatures look to stay above normal for this forecast period and looks like a decent chance for a soaking and widespread rainfall Mon night. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 712 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2018 As a disturbance moves into the region this morning, cloud cover will build in and gradually lower. Shra associated with the disturbance will spread across Upper MI from sw to ne during the day today. VCTS cannot be ruled out, but is least likely at KCMX. Breezy conditions will again be possible this afternoon, with gusts to 20 kts out of the south at KSAW and to 15 kts out of the SSE at KIWD and KCMX. Expect cigs to fall to MVFR with further reductions to IFR probably occurring tonight, beginning first at KSAW during the evening. Should any heavier shra or tsra impact the terminals today, vis reductions to MVFR or even IFR could occur. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 417 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2018 Southerly winds this afternoon and evening will approach 20 knots across the eastern half of the lake as a low pressure system approaches from the west. As the system crosses the Great Lakes region this weekend, it will weaken, as will the winds, dropping off below 15 knots through early next week. Winds may again approach 15 to 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KCW LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...KCW MARINE...KCW