FXUS63 KMPX 101719 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WRN MN WHERE SUCH OBS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE AFTER COLLABORATION WITH FGF/ABR/FSD. HELD OFF FOR NOW FURTHER EAST DUE TO SPOTTIER REPORTS OF DENSE FOG AND MORE STRATUS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AS TROUGHINESS FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PULLS OUT. CU RULE INDICATES SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR ERN MN AND WRN WI...BUT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN MN. 925 MB TEMPS OF +18 TO +20C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT. STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF STORMS DOWN HERE TO A MINIMUM...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM OVERHEAD... PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS BRINGS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE 10-12C RANGE INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z WED. THIS MAY CAP ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS IS COOLEST/WITH WEAKER CAP OVER SOUTHERN MN. SO IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPER-CELLS. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME CLUSTERING/MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE EXTREME SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS IOWA...WITH CONTINUED WIND POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW ALOFT IS A CONCERN AS WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING A WAVE ACROSS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BUT WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP TREND FOR TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN THE SOUTH. THEN WILL TRAIL POPS OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED ON CAPPING INTO SUNDAY...BUT BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF DO BRING A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN WAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND DOES FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE SOME. WILL MENTION SOME LIKELY POPS INT HE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED DEW POINT PROBLEM IN THE GFS WITH LOW/MID 70S PROGGED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND FAVOR THE LOW/MID 60S FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF. THE GFS DRAGS A FRONT SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL TRY AND TRAIL POPS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR NOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/ACARS DATA/AND INFORMATION ON CLOUD DEPTH HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE ON VFR CONDS AT RWF/AXN AT THE START OF THE 18Z...OR WITHIN AN HR. STC WILL LIKELY SEE VFR CONDS SOONER THAN RNH/MSP/EAU AS CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS HIGHER IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. AFT 21Z...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL AS CIGS LIFT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT W/NW WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MN...WILL BECOME MORE S/SW TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE N/NE TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY MORNING/AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT IN CURRENT TAF. KMSP... MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 20-21Z WITH VFR CONDS CONTINUING THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK W/WNW FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW/S THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS. AFT 12Z...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE BY THE AFTN. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTN...BUT HIGHER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT TERMINAL. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA ENDING...BUT CHC/S REMAIN LOW. NE WND 5 KTS. WED...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF TSRA. WIND NE 10 KT. THU...VFR. N/NE WINDS 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...JLT  FXUS63 KMPX 130902 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 402 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013 AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AROUND 24 KNOTS. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT AS IT RIDES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RADAR ACTIVITY HAS SLOWED A BIT IN THE LATEST HOUR...AND IS REGENERATING TO THE WEST...PROBABLY AN INDICATION OF THE WAVE SLOWING AND MOVING INTO THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS ACTIVITY ELEVATED WITH ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY WAA PATTERN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED AS WELL...WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH THE ACTIVITY. QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST THIS WILL GO THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS INDICATE THIS AREA WILL WORK EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. ALSO...SECONDARY AREA OF 850MB WAA REGENERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS AN EXTENSION TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SODAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE BUT DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 18Z...THEN INCREASE POPS AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST TO CHANCE AFTER 21Z...NEAREST TO THE AREA OF THE SURFACE FRONT. DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH AMOUNT OF HEATING DETERMINED ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME AS THESE SYSTEMS WANE THIS MORNING. BEST INSTABILITY RIDES TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EVENING PER LATEST SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIVE CHANCE POPS DOWN A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN TONIGHT...JUST IN CASE ACTIVITY IS MORE ROBUST THAN MODELS INDICATE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013 STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 600 DAM CENTERED OVER NERN OHIO BY AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RIDGING SO EXPECTING A SHARP DROP OFF IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY. PW COULD RANGE FROM 0.75-1.0 INCH ACROSS SRN MN/WRN WI TO 2.0-2.25 INCHES ACROSS WRN MN. MAINTAINED VERY LOW POPS AND SUNNY SKIES OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AND MAINTAINED MEDIUM RANGE POPS NORTHWEST. LOW MBE VELOCITIES...VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND HIGH PW/S ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE WESTWARD AND BRING DIMINISHING CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WRN MN. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES WILL INCH UP EACH DAY AND 925 MB TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY TOP +27 OR +28C. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE A GOOD BET...AND COULD BE EVEN WARMER. PW/S WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL HOVER ON EITHER SIDE OF 70F. HEAT INDICES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MIDWEEK WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100F. CANNOT RULE OUT HEAT HEADLINES IF THIS IS TO VERIFY...PARTICULARLY WHEN LOWS FAIL TO DROP BELOW 75 IN THE METRO. SOMETHING THAT MAY BRING RELIEF DURING THIS PERIOD ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE SUCH A POTENT RIDGE...THE PROFILE IS LACKING OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INVERSION SO WE COULD SEE POP UP STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2013 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BY THE TIME THE ACTIVITY REACHES EAST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z...SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER AT BEST. ATTENDANT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR. WINDS FROM 150-180 DEGREES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING FOR THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL MN AGAIN ON SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 AT KAXN AT THIS POINT. KMSP... WEAKENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH KMSP AS EARLY AS 08Z...WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SITE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. ATTENDANT CONDITIONS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE VFR. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AOA 5KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS 160-170 DEGREES WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S /KNOTS/ DEVELOPING AROUND 17Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. WINDS S 10KT. MON...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KT. TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KT. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...LS  FXUS63 KMPX 150903 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH FOG...LOCALLY DENSE FOG WHERE SKIES TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT...AND HOW LONG WILL THE CLOUDS LINGER CAUSING TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. OTHER CONCERNS DEAL WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT. FIRST...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND DEPTH OF THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING THRU MID MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES CLEARED WILL SEE LOCALIZED DENSE FOG BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. SECONDLY...THE CLOUD DEPTH IS STILL FAIRLY DEEP /UP TO 5K/ BUT THE HIGH SUN ANGLE IN MAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTN. INITIALLY...SKIES WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU MID/LATE MORNING. TEMPS REFLECT THIS TREND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING IN THE MORNING...WITH A MORE ABRUPT UPWARD TREND BY THE EARLY AFTN. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST AS THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING THIS EVENING IN THE SW...AND SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LLJ ORIENTATION AND DIVERGENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MPX N/NE CWA...THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL CUTOFF ON THE CHC/S OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE FAR SW/WC PARTS OF MN WHERE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THE FOCI IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ADEQUATE SCOURING OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S RANGE ON SATURDAY...GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MIXING. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S RANGE. EXPECT TO SEE RENEWAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TRIPLE POINT AND ADVANCING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT SAID ACTIVITY TO MARCH ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL MN...EXPANDING TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ROUND OF EVENING CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. ON SUNDAY...THE KEY FACTOR THAT WILL DETERMINE STORM SEVERITY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL GIVEN THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT INSTABILITY COULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGS DEFORMATION PRECIP TO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A BREEZY PERIOD AS WELL...GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015 PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE IN WI AND WILL END AT ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED TO KEEP ALL TERMINALS IN IFR ALTHOUGH KRWF WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO AVOID THE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDS AND HENCE MAY WELL BE THE TRICKIEST TERMINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW PRES CENTER MOVES ATOP THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO LGT/VRBL WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE IFR CONDS IN PLACE BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE E TMRW...BEING REPLACED BY HIGH PRES...CONDS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TMRW. VFR CONDS WILL BE REALIZED BY TMRW AFTN. HOWEVER...THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG...AND THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM W TO E STARTING AFTER 00Z TMRW EVE. HAVE OMITTED CB/TS MENTION ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. KMSP...IFR CONDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL PREVAIL THRU DAYBREAK... MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS...THEN CONDS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN TO VFR. VFR CONDS WILL THEN HOLD THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN AND EVE HRS TMRW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. ATTM...HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT MRNG BUT SHOULD TSTMS DEVELOP...ANY THAT IMPACT THE AIRPORT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OR LOW ENOUGH CEILINGS TO BRING CONDS BACK DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR EARLY WITH SCATTERED IFR/TSRA LATE. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS. SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED IFR/TSRA. WINDS S AT 15-25 KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS NNW AT 15-20 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...JPC  FXUS63 KMPX 030925 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 325 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. IT WAS RATHER EVIDENT A RIDGE WAS BUILDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT PER INFRARED IMAGERY. THE JET STREAM AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BAND HAD SHIFTED DECIDEDLY NORTH AND MOST OF THE CWA IS NOW CLEAR. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE RIDGE. A NOTED EXCEPTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRODUCING FOG AND STRATUS. MORE ON THAT LATER. REDUCED SKY COVER INTO EARLY EVENING. THICKNESSES TODAY ARE ABOUT 10 DM HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 900-700 MB LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 900 MB WITH MUCH BETTER MECHANICAL MIXING EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MONDAY/S HIGHS OVERACHIEVED BY SEVERAL DEGREES EVEN WITH A FEW NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT ARE NO LONGER IN PLACE TODAY. IT DOESN/T SEEM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WOULDN/T BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. RAISED HIGHS ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 70S. FURTHER BOLSTERING THIS POSSIBILITY ARE TRAJECTORY FORECASTS...WITH THE SOURCE REGION COMING FROM SOUTHEAST KS WHERE LOW/MID 70S WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. AREAS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THAT AREA ROSE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD PUT US IN RECORD TERRITORY...WITH MSP/STC/EAU RECORD HIGHS ALL AT 74. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS IN PLACE THERE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH MODEL...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS CEILING LEVEL/CLOUD DEPTH AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN WHAT IS HAPPENING SOUTH AGAIN THIS MORNING...HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. FOG POTENTIAL IS LOWER DUE TO WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S...AT WHICH POINT CIGS MAY BE SO LOW FOG IS ALMOST UNAVOIDABLE DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM REMAIN STRATUS THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. THEN TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND THUNDER THREAT THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE EAST. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES MODELS DO PAINT MORE CLOUDS/STRATUS OVER THE AREA INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DRAW MID 50'S DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM/HIRES SOLUTION FOR CLOUD TRENDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. ALONG WITH THE STRATUS...MIST/FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. DOES APPEAR RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET FOR AT LEAST STC/48 IN 1898 1895/ AND AT MSP/51 IN 1895 AND 2008/ WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF CLEARING...IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL TREND 65 TO 70 FOR NOW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. CONTINUED THE HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POP TREND TO THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THERE DOES APPEAR SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE EAST AS WELL...WITH BEST LI'S DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO/SLIGHTLY BELOW AND SOME MUCAPE FORECAST AROUND 500 J/KG. WILL INCLUDE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION TO THE EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY. HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN USHERING IN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WORKS TOWARD THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TAF PERIOD AND VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRONGER SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPS LATE TOMORROW MORNING. KMSP... VERY LITTLE AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT...SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 5KTS AND IN GENERAL THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY...BUT IT BE NORTHEASTLY FOR A TIME AND SWITCH OVER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT OTHER TIMES. WE END UP WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY TO POTENTIALLY HAVE IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE AREN'T SURE IF THIS WILL HAPPEN THOUGH. THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING. WIND S 15G25KT. THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...CLF  FXUS63 KMPX 031254 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 654 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 THE BIGGEST WEATHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK WITH BASES AT 1000-2000FT HAS FORMED IN RESPONSE TO ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 925MB-700MB. DEEPER MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE THE RESULT OF THIS SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND A 1030-1035MB HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY AND WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...ANY CLOUDS THAT DONT CLEAR BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL THEREFORE INFLUENCE OUR SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. THE CLOUDS COULD KEEP US FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUD COVER...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 MAIN AREA OF FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM NEVER REALLY GETS ORGANIZED...SO AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT ROLLS AROUND THE TROUGH AND JET MAX WILL BE ACROSS THE BAJA TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS A INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LONG DURATION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPS HOOVER AROUND 30 TO 34F...SO PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 03.00Z GFS HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF AT KMSP...BUT LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE...KAXN ALSO HAS OVER AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AS OF NOW...THERE IS NOT AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SO DONT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN TO BE A PROBLEM. THE WEATHER TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. ALSO...THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR CYCLONE BECAUSE OF THE LACK LUSTER LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY VERY WELL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS BAGGY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. IN FACT...FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE FLUCTUATES FROM 1003MB TO 998MB. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 647 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 IT LOOKS LIKE THE MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL BE HERE TO STAY MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SOME OF OUR COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THINGS SCATTERING OUT LATE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD DEPTH/EXTENT AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WE THINK IT IS BETTER TO KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AWHILE. KMSP... THE AIRPORT IS HANGING RIGHT AROUND 1800-1900FT THIS MORNING. WE THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE A SLIGHT LOWERING TO 1600-1700FT...BUT THAT ISNT HAPPENING AS OF YET. WE MIGHT NEED TO UPDATE AND BRING UP THE CLOUD BASES SLIGHTLY SOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS BECOMING SE AT 5-10 KTS. TUE...VFR. WINDS S 8-15 KTS. WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS S 5-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLF LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...CLF  FXUS63 KMPX 031753 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1153 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 THE BIGGEST WEATHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK WITH BASES AT 1000-2000FT HAS FORMED IN RESPONSE TO ROBUST COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 925MB-700MB. DEEPER MOISTURE AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE THE RESULT OF THIS SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND A 1030-1035MB HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY AND WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...ANY CLOUDS THAT DONT CLEAR BY SUNSET WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL THEREFORE INFLUENCE OUR SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. THE CLOUDS COULD KEEP US FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SNOW COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUD COVER...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 MAIN AREA OF FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THAT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM NEVER REALLY GETS ORGANIZED...SO AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT ROLLS AROUND THE TROUGH AND JET MAX WILL BE ACROSS THE BAJA TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS A INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LONG DURATION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPS HOOVER AROUND 30 TO 34F...SO PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 03.00Z GFS HAS OVER AN INCH OF QPF AT KMSP...BUT LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. MEANWHILE...KAXN ALSO HAS OVER AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AS OF NOW...THERE IS NOT AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SO DONT ANTICIPATE FREEZING RAIN TO BE A PROBLEM. THE WEATHER TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. ALSO...THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR CYCLONE BECAUSE OF THE LACK LUSTER LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY VERY WELL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS BAGGY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. IN FACT...FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE FLUCTUATES FROM 1003MB TO 998MB. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 SATELLITE SHOWS NICE CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST MN SLIDING SOUTH. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CLOUDS SHOULD BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST AFTER 22Z. KAXN SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL BE HERE TO STAY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE BUT KAXN. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY SCATTERING CLOUDS OUT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD DEPTH/EXTENT AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WE THINK IT IS BETTER TO KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR AWHILE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DECKS LOWER TO THE LOW END OF MVFR AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AND VERY LIGHT. ONCE WE GET PAST MID DAY MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERING AT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MN- WI BORDER. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ALL DAY MONDAY IN WESTERN WI. KMSP... CEILINGS ARE SLOWING RAISING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES TOWARD THE FIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH. WILL SEE A SCATTERING OF THE CEILING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WOULD BE EASY ENOUGH TO FORM A CEILING SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING A CEILING AND A LOWERING OF THE CEILING IN THE MORNING HOURS AS LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS BUILD NORTH TOWARD MSP. DO NOT EXPECT TO KEEP THE MVFR CONDITIONS ALL AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. WINDS S 8-16 KTS. WED...VFR. WINDS 5-12 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. THU...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLF LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...DRL  FXUS63 KMPX 031754 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1154 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. IT WAS RATHER EVIDENT A RIDGE WAS BUILDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT PER INFRARED IMAGERY. THE JET STREAM AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BAND HAD SHIFTED DECIDEDLY NORTH AND MOST OF THE CWA IS NOW CLEAR. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE RIDGE. A NOTED EXCEPTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRODUCING FOG AND STRATUS. MORE ON THAT LATER. REDUCED SKY COVER INTO EARLY EVENING. THICKNESSES TODAY ARE ABOUT 10 DM HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 900-700 MB LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 900 MB WITH MUCH BETTER MECHANICAL MIXING EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MONDAY/S HIGHS OVERACHIEVED BY SEVERAL DEGREES EVEN WITH A FEW NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT ARE NO LONGER IN PLACE TODAY. IT DOESN/T SEEM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WOULDN/T BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. RAISED HIGHS ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 70S. FURTHER BOLSTERING THIS POSSIBILITY ARE TRAJECTORY FORECASTS...WITH THE SOURCE REGION COMING FROM SOUTHEAST KS WHERE LOW/MID 70S WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. AREAS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THAT AREA ROSE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD PUT US IN RECORD TERRITORY...WITH MSP/STC/EAU RECORD HIGHS ALL AT 74. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS IN PLACE THERE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH MODEL...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS CEILING LEVEL/CLOUD DEPTH AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN WHAT IS HAPPENING SOUTH AGAIN THIS MORNING...HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. FOG POTENTIAL IS LOWER DUE TO WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S...AT WHICH POINT CIGS MAY BE SO LOW FOG IS ALMOST UNAVOIDABLE DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM REMAIN STRATUS THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. THEN TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND THUNDER THREAT THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE EAST. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND HIRES MODELS DO PAINT MORE CLOUDS/STRATUS OVER THE AREA INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DRAW MID 50'S DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM/HIRES SOLUTION FOR CLOUD TRENDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. ALONG WITH THE STRATUS...MIST/FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. DOES APPEAR RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET FOR AT LEAST STC/48 IN 1898 1895/ AND AT MSP/51 IN 1895 AND 2008/ WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF CLEARING...IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL TREND 65 TO 70 FOR NOW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. CONTINUED THE HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POP TREND TO THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THERE DOES APPEAR SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE EAST AS WELL...WITH BEST LI'S DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO/SLIGHTLY BELOW AND SOME MUCAPE FORECAST AROUND 500 J/KG. WILL INCLUDE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION TO THE EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY. HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN USHERING IN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WORKS TOWARD THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015 CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY LIFR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF IFR THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT A BROAD SWATH FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO EASTERN TEXAS. SSE FLOW WILL BRING THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MN AND WESTERN WI. 12Z MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD IFR/LIFR...THOUGH GFS IS A LITTLE LATER WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IT MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY BY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE SINCE THERE WILL BE SSE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LITTLE RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. KMSP...SKC EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. MIGHT BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15. MAIN ISSUE IS IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIFR CEILINGS. 12Z MODELS ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF IFR THAN THE 00Z/06Z MODELS... AND CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH INDICATE THIS TREND IS CORRECT. LOOKING AT 07Z OR SO FOR THIS TO DEVELOP...BUT THAT COULD VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS. THE INVERSION WILL HELP KEEP IFR THROUGH WED MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE/SHRA LIKELY. WIND SW 10 KT BCMG NW. FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS. SAT...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5-10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...TDK  FXUS63 KMPX 032142 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 342 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER...HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE CLEARING LOCATED IN NW MN WILL EXTEND AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS OR NO CLOUDS. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER NW MN AND ALL OF ND AND MOST OF SD. THIS AREA OF CLEARING IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND IT IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST IT WILL GO. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE HRRR WANTS TO MIX OUT CLOUDS IN A SOMEWHAT NATURAL PROGRESSION FROM NW TO SE. THE VARIOUS HOPWRF RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT CONFLICTING TOO. IF YOU USE H875 OR H900 RH AS A PROXY FOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE AND ARE NOT...THE GFS SHUNTS RH EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z. THE NAM IS EVEN FASTER. THE CHALLENGE IS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA AND DRIFTING SE TOWARD SW MN THERE IS NO COMPELLING ARGUMENT FOR UNLOADING ENOUGH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT. TO MAKE THINGS MORE CHALLENGING AREA THAT WERE DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY SAW VIRTUALLY NO LOSS OF CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT WILL SLOWLY SCATTER THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND THE MN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE TWIN CITIES. SO WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND INTO MONDAY. WESTERN WI WILL REMAIN OVERCAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARYING CLOUD COVER. MORE SCATTERING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECT ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE/SNOWFALL RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS WHICH WILL LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES OF SNOWFALL AMTS. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND COMMENCE THE MUCH MILDER CONDS FOR WED/THU/FRI BEFORE PROBABLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVES IN NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST...THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WILL BE THE FIRST INGREDIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED INITIALLY...BUT WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...QPF AMTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 0.50". ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY FOR ALL SNOW...AM CONCERN AT THE END AS WET-BULB TEMPS IN THE FIRST 0-1KM INCREASES TO AROUND +0.5C ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. AT LEAST ONCE SNOW DEVELOPS AND SFC TEMPS RISE TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABV...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS DROPPING TO AROUND 8-1 OR 5-1. THIS LEADS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH FOR MOST AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW. OUR SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF 1-2" OUTSIDE OUR GREATEST QPF AREAS WEST/NW OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. SEE THE LATEST TRENDS ON OUR WEB PAGE. WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MPX/WINTER. ONCE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM MOVES OFF...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK. MOST MODELS HAVE THE BEST TIME FRAME OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MPX CWA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON LOCATION OF THE BEST LIFT AND SFC FEATURES. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN MPX SE CWA. OR BASICALLY FROM SC TO EC MN AND INTO WC WI. DEPENDING UPON THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE WARMER AIR COULD ACTUALLY MOVE FURTHER TO THE NW ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN/SNOW BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT TO GUARANTEE ANY EXACT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMTS. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 10-1 OR LOWER AROUND 6 OR 8-1. THEREFORE...KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE. SFC TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE MILDER AIR WITH READINGS HOLDING NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONCE THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LARGE AREA OF COLD AIR FROM NORTHEAST CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THE PROBABILITY OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR FIRST BELOW ZERO READING /MPX CWA WIDE/ IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...THE EPO /EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION/ WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEGATIVE AND WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE 13TH OF JANUARY...LEADS TO MUCH COLDER AIR PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO WITH WPC BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE 6-14 DAY TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN JAN 3 2016 SATELLITE SHOWS NICE CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST MN SLIDING SOUTH. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN CLOUDS SHOULD BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST AFTER 22Z. KAXN SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL BE HERE TO STAY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE BUT KAXN. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS TRY SCATTERING CLOUDS OUT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD DEPTH/EXTENT AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WE THINK IT IS BETTER TO KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR AWHILE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DECKS LOWER TO THE LOW END OF MVFR AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AND VERY LIGHT. ONCE WE GET PAST MID DAY MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERING AT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MN- WI BORDER. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ALL DAY MONDAY IN WESTERN WI. KMSP... CEILINGS ARE SLOWING RAISING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES TOWARD THE FIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH. WILL SEE A SCATTERING OF THE CEILING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WOULD BE EASY ENOUGH TO FORM A CEILING SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING A CEILING AND A LOWERING OF THE CEILING IN THE MORNING HOURS AS LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS BUILD NORTH TOWARD MSP. DO NOT EXPECT TO KEEP THE MVFR CONDITIONS ALL AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. WINDS S 8-16 KTS. WED...VFR. WINDS 5-12 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. THU...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRL LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...DRL  FXUS63 KMPX 192152 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 352 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS JUST WORKING INTO WRN WI AT 3 PM...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WAA QUICKLY SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ROUNDING THE CREST OF A RIDGE THAT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION. OUT WEST...YOU CAN SEE THE NEXT FEATURES THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE SFC WE A CURRENTLY SEEING LEE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WITH A WARM FRONT BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS SRN SODAK DOWN TO AROUND SIOUX CITY IA. THE KEY TO OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE 4-CORNERS AS THE WAVE ENTERING CALIFORNIA NOW DOES NOT LOOK TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL IT HOOKS UP WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK TO HAPPEN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. OUR PRECIP THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TIED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ALONG A SFC THROUGH THAT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS MN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CONFINED TO UNDER 3K FT...WHICH IS WHY PRECIP GENERATION LOOKS TO BE LACKING LOCALLY. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE GFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS WI...WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET THE DEEPEST WITH A CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME LIFT...THOUGH EVEN HERE...THE CLOUD DEPTH LOOKS SHALLOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT OUR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...SO KNOCKED OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND JUST WENT WITH A PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION...THOUGH THIS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERDOING IT TOO. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE UPPER MN RIVER VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR SW LIFTS INTO MN. FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOWING HIGHS TOPPING 40 FOR SRN/ERN MN INTO WRN WI...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEP HIGHS CONFINED IN THE LOW/MID 30S. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TOMORROW AND WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY TOWARD THE COOLER END OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 IT COOLS DOWN A BIT MONDAY BEHIND THE SUNDAY SYSTEM BUT A PACIFIC AIRMASS RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TRYING TO COME TOGETHER OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH TUESDAY WITH WAA...AND TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE. MAINTAINED CHC POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI. THERE WILL BE A WARM LAYER ALOFT...EITHER VERY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SO A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY STEADY PRECIP. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS AND HIGHS MAY REACH THE 40S IN SOME LOCATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING LOOKS DRY AND MILD...BUT MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING ANOTHER SHIFT WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THAT TIME. THIS COULD SPAWN ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS HANGS THE ENERGY BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MUCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF...AS A RESULT OF IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. THE ECMWF NOW ESSENTIALLY EJECTS ALL OF THE ENERGY OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A PHASED DEEP TROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MINNESOTA...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO WORK THESE DIFFERENCES OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS TIMING OF MVFR AND LOWER CIGS IN LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED THE SLOWER GFS/SREF TIMING IN THE TAFS. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NODAK TO THE NORTH OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS THROUGH DOES NOT START TO NOSE INTO WEST CENTRAL MN UNTIL 6Z...WITH LOW CIG EXPANSION ACROSS MN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THEN. MAINTAINED DRY TAFS AS WELL WITH ONLY REAL THREAT FOR PRECIP BEING DRIZZLE...THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER LOW CLOUD LAYERS TO START INCLUDING THAT IN THE TAFS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING BEING AT EAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL MAINTAIN A HEALTHY SOUTHEAST WIND...BUT AS THE SFC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO DROP OFF AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR/HZ ALONG THE BOUNDARY. KMSP...THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF SPREAD FOR WHEN LOW CIGS ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH ANYTHING FROM 7Z-15Z POSSIBLE. GIVEN TIMING OF THE SFC TROUGH...FAVORED THE SLOWER GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE GFSLAMP AND SREF. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP...THOUGH MAY SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WHEN THE TROUGH/FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS. TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RASN LATE. WIND SSE AT 10-15 KTS. WED...MVFR. CHC IFR/-RA/-SN. WIND S BCMG W 10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...MPG  FXUS63 KMPX 201811 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1211 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...READINGS ACTUALLY REBOUNDED BACK INTO THE 40S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE 30S. NONETHELESS...IT REMAINS VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MIXING WITH CONTINUED CAA AND THINK WE SHOULD MIX TO AT LEAST 925 MB. MIXING DOWN FROM THAT LEVEL WOULD BRING US INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH TODAY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE AREA FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IF SUN CONTINUES LONGER INTO THE DAY THEY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE /1020+ MB/ WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR FLEETING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING...AS A FAINT BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE MODEST AT BEST...SO ATTENDANT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN THE MILD PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A RAIN/SNOW COMBO...BUT SNOW IS PRIMARILY FAVORED ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH WOULD BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A BRIEF STINT OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW CLIPS THE AREA. STILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING SO PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...BUT LOW/MID 30S LOOK ACHIEVABLE. DURING THE LAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ENERGY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT AMOUNTS AGAIN WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A HIT AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE LAST WEEKEND IN FEBRUARY COULD BE QUITE COLD IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT AND AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN PENETRATES THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 THOUGH MVFR CIGS ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA TO START THIS PERIOD...A NICE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN MN...WHICH IS ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO CIG FORECAST WITH THESE TAFS. THE LAMP CONTINUES TO INSIST THERE BEING SOME PERMANENCE TO THIS HOLE...WITH HOPWRF MVFR PROBS SUPPORTING THIS IDEA AS WELL. THE HRRR KEEPS SKIES PRETTY MUCH OVC...BUT WITH HOLE THERE...TRENDED TAFS TOWARD THE LAMP WITH THE PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS EXIST ACROSS ERN NODAK/NRN MN AND THESE CIGS WILL DROP SOUTH...SO MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE RETURNING TO ANYWHERE THAT SEEMS THEM LEAVE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE. MID LEVEL FORCING IS STRONGEST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...SO EXPECT BEST SNOW TO GO FROM WC TO SC MN...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN/FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TOMORROW MORNING. KMSP...AREA OF SCATTERING OF CLOUDS WEST OF MSP IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY 21Z. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHEN DO THE MVFR CIGS RETURN...9Z MAY BE A BIT LATE FOR THAT OCCURRING...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW BIG THE SCATTERING BECOMES. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS SNOW TOMORROW GETTING GENERATED AT ABOUT 12K FT...WITH 8K FT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE SNOW AND LOW STRATUS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS LATE. WIND SW 5-10 KTS. TUE...MVFR. CHC -SN/-RA AND IFR. WIND NW 5-15 KTS. WED...VFR. WIND W 5 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MPG  FXUS63 KMPX 121818 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 118 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016 Today and tonight...Surface analysis early this morning shows a surface low over western SD with its associated warm front extended ESE through SD into southwestern MN and northeastern IA. Its associated cold front then drops southwest through the Rockies. Aloft, the peak of an upper level ridge is atop the region though there is a noticeable buckle on the western side of the ridge. It is along this small shortwave disturbance combined with the northeastern advance of the warm front that convection has broken out early this morning in the center of the WFO MPX coverage area, aligned fairly well with the I-94 corridor. PWATS are still in the 1.3-1.5 inch range, most of which is in the middle to upper levels since dewpoint depressions are largely 10-15 degrees. As an example, MSP airport has picked up nearly one inch of rain in about an hour's time from the storms that formed overnight. These storms will last through daybreak but not much beyond since the upper trough is shifting eastward with time. The additional moisture put in place with these showers and their alignment will play a part in expected convection later on today along the warm front and ahead of the advancing cold front. Insolation between a mixture of layered clouds will add to low-to- mid level instability as dewpoints climb into the middle and upper 60s for central-western MN and into the upper 50s to lower 60s in eastern MN and western WI. As the cold front advances, which will enhance lift and be a main player since upper level support will be limited to another weak buckling shortwave on the backside of the departing ridge, convective temperatures will be achieved which will start shower/thunderstorm development over the far eastern Dakotas. These storms are then expected to march east southeastward along the warm front, again along roughly an I-94 corridor, towards the Twin Cities and into southwestern WI. There is some minor uncertainty in exact placement of storms and minor timing issues but confidence is high enough such that POPs can be increased to the 80-90 percent range by tonight. For severe storm potential, the main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds mainly due to the weak support aloft and outflow-boundary-driven nature of the storms. However, there is a non-zero chance of a tornadic threat for storms that perpetuate in the vicinity of the warm front. The storms will progress southeastward through the overnight hours, impacting much of the coverage area, with weak, if any, storms left over in southeastern portions of the coverage area by daybreak Monday morning. Regarding temperatures, most locations will start out in the lower 60s (in western WI) to the lower 70s (in western MN). Highs will then top out in the upper 70s (in western WI) to the lower 90s (in western MN). The cold front will not make a complete progression through the coverage area until tomorrow so low temperatures tomorrow night will be mild, generally in the 60s to lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016 By 12Z tomorrow morning, the frontal boundary will be positioned from northwest WI through south central MN with decaying showers and thunderstorms becoming more scattered in nature advancing southeast. So, continue to carry pops along and ahead of the front in the 12Z- 18Z time period tomorrow as we work that front out of the area. A tease of high pressure will come in behind the front Monday, with clearing skies likely at least across western MN. But, a shortwave trough across the southwest CONUS will amplify and advance northeast into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday night. Still expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop out ahead of the trough on Tuesday into Wednesday with 1-3" rainfall amounts still looking good. The Upper Midwest still looks to be north of the best combination of instability and shear for this system. A marginal risk of severe weather does extend into far southern MN, with a slight risk of severe weather maintained well to our south where stronger instability and shear will be at play Tuesday afternoon. The exit speed of this system looks even faster now, so the main change with this forecast package was to reduce pops faster on the back side Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a completely dry forecast in store for Thursday. Beyond Thursday, the upper ridge looks to maintain itself across the Upper Midwest as a deep trough/upper low remains parked over the Pacific Northwest. This will provide the region with warm and dry conditions, but we do have a slight chance of thunderstorms working into western MN this weekend along a frontal boundary that the GFS wants to push through. The ECMWF is dry during that period though, so will look for better continuity and agreement in the next few model cycles. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016 Confidence is increasing in thunderstorm evolution this evening, so started narrowing windows for thunder at TAFs. Based timing on the HRRR and HopWRF. Expect TSRA into AXN around 23z and the Twin Cities around midnight. RWF looks to be near the southern edge of the line that develops, so removed the tempo there and went with a vcts. By the time this reaches EAU, confidence decreases considerably on what will be left of the line, so just have a period of -shra late tonight. Other concern for late tonight into Monday morning is the threat for MVFR cigs to develop behind the cold front. There was extensive stratus deck this morning across the western Dakotas, but SREF MVFR probs are greatest tonight/Monday morning over northern MN. NAM soundings support some MVFR cigs developing, though later than what LAMP guidance has and followed the slower NAM timing for bringing MVFR cigs in with IFR cigs possible depending on where and how much rain a terminal sees. KMSP...MVFR cigs that came up from moist air emanating from heavy rains overnight down toward Red Wing have broken up and we will maintain prevailing VFR conditions until MSP gets behind the front Monday morning. Short range models are beginning to hone in on TSRA threat for MSP, with strong clustering in reflectivity guidance with storms rolling through between 5z and 7z. Confidence in MVFR cigs Monday morning not as high as we have with TSRA tonight, but the fact that we are expecting a round of storms to moisten things up does support the development of lower stratus/statocu behind the front. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely by afternoon. Wind E 5-10 kts. WED...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely in morning. Becoming VFR in afternoon. Wind S 5-10 kts...becoming NW. THU...VFR. NE 5-10 kts. && .MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM...JPC LONG TERM...SPD AVIATION...MPG  FXUS63 KMPX 260928 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 328 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 Main forecast concern deals with areas of dense fog where skies cleared overnight in the region that had more snow cover. Since Friday evening, skies slowly cleared across central/east central Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin. As skies cleared, and winds remained light, fog formed, especially from Litchfield, east to the Twin Cities, and northward into central Minnesota. High clouds began to filter eastward across Minnesota after midnight, which limited the spread of the fog west toward west central Minnesota. In addition, and based on GOES cloud thickness layer, and visfog satellite trends, the thicker clouds were spreading northeast into northeast Minnesota, with thinner clouds and more fog across central Minnesota. This will lead to any fog this morning to quickly burn off. However, due to the weak boundary layer wind field and model trends of expanding the cloud cover back southward later this afternoon/evening, kept temperatures cooler in this region. Elsewhere, more sunshine and warmer air spreading eastward, 40s will be common, even a few upper 40s are possible in south central Minnesota. Only forecast change tonight is to continue clouds spreading southward, and the formation of fog once again. Boundary layer winds are high enough to limit widespread fog from forming. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 Model agreement regarding the evolution of a closed low ejecting from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest during the long term forecast period continues to improve gradually with each successive run. Confidence is high that we will see rain across the forecast area on Sunday evening through Monday as the associated surface low lifts north from eastern Nebraska/South Dakota toward North Dakota. Expect most of the forecast area to see around one half inch of rain or more by Monday evening with elevated instability parameters still indicative of the potential for a few claps of thunder. Monday night into Tuesday looks to be a period when most of the forecast area will be in the dry slot, until Tuesday afternoon and night when wrap-around precip moves in as the low lifts to the Arrowhead. We have the potential to warm up substantially on Monday afternoon with any amount of clearing given the southerly flow. Highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s are anticipated. Monday night the intrusion of colder air aloft will trigger the introduction of a rain-snow mix, with mainly snow expected Tuesday night. Wednesday and Thursday still look to be cloudy with light precip as we remain in the cyclonic flow on the western fringes of the departing trough, with dry high pressure gradually working in by next weekend. With the influence of the trough mid to late next week, there will be little diurnal variation in temperatures, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1048 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Eastward moving back edge of low stratus has stalled its progression over central MN. However, where areas have cleared out in western MN, fog has filled in. Slow snowmelt is feeding the low level moisture while no dry air advection is available to scour it out overnight. In fact, am expecting most areas to have winds drop to calm late this evening through the overnight hours. This combination is fairly susceptible to more widespread fog formation. But, it's a matter of timing and aside from KAXN, the influx of IFR-or-worse conditions has been quite slow. Thus, have modified the theme of IFR-or-lower conditions for the 26/06z TAFs, which is to not hit conditions quite as hard and to shrink the durations. Model guidance has by-and-large not been that helpful so confidence is not that high in the next 6-9 hours. Conditions will gradually improve during the day tomorrow as ceilings lift then decks scatter out. KMSP...Will be a rather tricky overnight period as the ragged western edge of low stratus will be nearly atop KMSP. This will play with the low stratus versus fog setup overnight. Confidence is not all that high that IFR conditions will be realized at MSP but should winds remain in the 3-5 kt range, then chances are pretty good of having IFR ceilings. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...Mainly VFR. MVFR/IFR with -SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Mon...MVFR early with -RA. Wind S 10-15 kts. Tue...MVFR/IFR. Chc -RA/-SN. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC  FXUS63 KMPX 011047 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 447 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Cloud cover and spotty light precipitation over the eastern portion of the area, in association with an inverted trough extending north from a surface low over Illinois, will move out of the area this morning. High pressure over the Plains will shift east across the area today, with mostly sunny skies and seasonably mild temperatures expected. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, although some patchy fog will likely occur given high pressure overhead and some increased boundary layer moisture due to melting that will occur during the day today. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 The main issue in the longer term continues to be the system that will impact the area from late Sunday through Tuesday. In the big picture, we'll see the current fairly zonal flow across the continent amplify over the weekend as the upper trough currently off the west coast works east and ridging builds over the central US. Things will remain progressive through the week as the upper trough moves eastward and amplifies over the central and eastern US, bringing a return of cooler temperatures. With respect to the late Sunday-Tuesday system, there is still significant disagreement in the guidance with respect to the intensity and location of the upper wave and associated surface low. As would be expected, there is also no consensus on the forecast thermal profile across the area, which makes it tough to determine what form precipitation will take. Overall, it certainly looks as though things will start as rain over most of the area (perhaps initially some freezing rain over the northwest), with an eventual transition to snow as the column cools. However, it is still too soon to say when exactly this will occur and how much precipitation will fall as snow given the differences in the deterministic solutions and significant spread in the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble. Continued to employ a consensus approach, which is similar to the previous forecast, and ramps up PoPs late Sunday into Monday, with a transition from rain to snow Monday afternoon and evening. In the wake of that system, we will see colder temperatures work into the region as a surface high builds southeast from Canada Wednesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 445 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Weather models have been too aggressive on the formation, and spread of dense fog across west central, and into southwest and south central Minnesota this morning. Based on the current satellite imagery, fog depth, which is fairly shallow, and weak wind speeds below a strong surface inversion, I don't expect much in the way of widespread dense fog. Some MVFR, or perhaps a brief (1 hr or less) IFR vsby this morning for KAXN/KRWF is the main concern through 18z. Otherwise, no other concerns with a light northwest wind under 10 kts. KMSP... No additional concerns with high confidence in VFR conditions. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri...VFR. Winds SE 5-10 kts, increasing overnight and gusty. Sat...VFR. Winds SE 15-20 kts Gusts 25-30 kts. Sun...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Winds SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JLT  FXUS63 KMPX 210405 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1105 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 Isolated showers are redeveloping this afternoon. Clearing skies and temperatures rising into the upper 70s/low 80s are building instability. Could see some of these showers develop into thunderstorms through early evening before losing instability around sunset. So far, lightning activity has been confined to northern Minnesota. Coverage is not expected to be particularly widespread, perhaps 30-40 percent. Widespread smoke across northwestern Minnesota associated with wildfires over southern Canada will drift south tonight. Visibilities range from 2 to 5 miles. The RAP smoke model maintains this plume overnight into southwest Minnesota, which seems reasonable with an inversion trapping the smoke near the surface and continued northerly flow. The MPCA has posted an Air Quality Alert for northwest and portions of west central/central Minnesota through mid morning Saturday before better mixing takes over. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 Overall, models continue to support a cooling trend after the middle of next week as the mean wind in the boundary layer contributes to a more Canadian air mass regime. For the ladder part of the weekend, and into early next week, the anomalous upper low, which is currently located across the western Great Lakes, will drift southward and weaken over the next few days. This will keep deep tropical moisture limited to the far south in the extended period. The mean upper flow will also become stronger and westerly early next week as a storm system moves across southern Canada. Although PWATs do increase slightly as another weak cold front moves across the region Monday, most of the energy with this system will remain in Canada. Thus, any rainfall will be isolated or scattered in nature and no robust updrafts for strong storms. A more potent short wave, and a stronger jet streak, will move across the Upper Midwest the middle of next week. Instability will remain weak as another front passes through the region. However, with better jet energy, any thunderstorms could be capable of producing strong wind gusts. The end of next week can be characterized as cooler than normal as the mean upper flow remains northwest. This will likely mean highs near 80 and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 Main concern now is how extensive does stratus get tonight. Beginning to see the first signs of this stratus showing up to the northeast of Mille Lacs. RAP/HRRR continue to show this stratus working toward southwest MN. NAM soundings are certainly moist in the low levels, but that moisture is relatively shallow, so it's hard to say how widespread the stratus will become. At either rate, LAV continues to show best IFR/MVFR probs at AXN/STC/RWF, though MSP and MKT could get in on the fun as well. No rain Saturday, with morning stratus slowly lifting through the morning. Looks like cloudiest skies will be over MN, with mainly sunny skies over WI. KMSP...Still potential for 1k to 1.5k ft cigs to impact the airport between 10z and 16z Sat morning. Will have to watch how stratus to the northeast of Mille Lacs Lake evolves. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. Mon...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA. Wind vrbl becoming NW 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind W 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...MPG  FXUS63 KMPX 241154 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 654 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Warm advective band of precip moving through this morning is split into two primary parts. One associated with the LLJ and the other the main upper forcing with the shortwave tracking across the Dakotas. The nose of the LLJ has made it into northern IA tonight, but it will slide east into southern WI through the morning. There's pretty strong model consensus we'll see around an inch of precip down along I-90, but it falls off pretty quick north of there, with a relative minima in precipitation amounts expects from southwest MN through northwest WI as these areas fall between the better forcing to the northwest and better moisture transport to the southeast. Today, showers will continue to lift northeast with a warm front, with clearing skies working in from west to east across southern MN this afternoon. How quickly this clearing moves across the area will largely determine how warm it gets. Out in the upper MN Valley, mid 70s should be no problem to achieve as the clearing arrives there first. On the other end of the spectrum, areas around Ladysmith WI will likely remain in the lower 60s under cloudy skies. In between, highs could be a few degrees warm or colder than currently forecast depending on cloud trends. Tonight, we'll have a dry feed of air to the south of a surface low going across northern MN, which will clear out the skies. This trend of dry air and clear skies will carry us into Saturday, which will be our reward for enduring the last 10 days of cool, cloudy and rainy weather. We should have no problem reaching the low to mid 70s on Saturday, with an 80 not out of the question out by Eau Claire. The one cooler area though will be out toward Alexandria as they'll be under the influence of an h85 thermal trough centered over northwest MN, with h85 temps progged to be only around 4c, which will hold highs out that direction back in the 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Warm and pleasant weather continues during the day on Sunday over the region begins to move off to the east. Highs will again warm into the mid 70s for most locations under sunny skies, with cloud cover increasing Sunday evening ahead of the next system. While Saturday/Sunday look dry and pleasant, a more active pattern develops for Monday and continues into mid-week. Two shortwaves approach the area Sunday night into Monday, the stronger wave associated with the northern stream jet and upper trough over Hudson bay while a weaker impulses ejects ahead of a digging trough over the western US. A broad trough of low pressure at the surface across the central plains will deepen into a more organized low pressure center Monday afternoon as the western trough comes off of the Rockies. Isentropic ascent ahead of a warm front to the east of this developing low along with plenty of ascent aloft looks to generate a broad shield of precipitation over the northern plains Sunday night, which is expected to move into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the overnight hours and continue through Monday. Memorial day looks like it could be quite soggy with forecast rainfall amounts ranging from 1-2" across the area and the heaviest amounts expected across southern Minnesota. The greatest thunderstorm potential and possibly even severe threat will depend on where the warm front and highest instability sets up, this currently appears to be further south into Iowa but could shift as we get closer to Monday. The warm front will oscillate just south of the area as the low pressure center approaches from the plains, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Again the best thunderstorm chances and heavy rain potential will depend on where the warm front sets up. PW values look a little lower compared to Monday which should keep additional precipitation amounts to around an inch. Precipitation chances should diminish Wednesday afternoon/evening as the low moves east of the area. Cooler conditions are expected for the end of the week into the weekend as an anomalously deep trough sets up over the eastern half of the US. Still disagreement in the models regarding the depth of the upper level low and extent of the cold air, so will keep temperatures close to the model consensus for now. Overall the latter half of the week looks to be drier than the first, with another shot at precipitation looking possible over the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 754 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Thunder threat is looking minimal with precip moving through today. Didn't change much with timing, with on/off showers occurring until an occluded front works through any one location and winds with to the southwest. HREF IFR probs highest in western MN, so continued to trend cig forecasts at MSP/RNH/EAU above LAV guidance. Clearing will work in from the west this afternoon, with mainly clear skies expected tonight. Only thing to watch out for is some of the CAMs are trying to develop fog Saturday morning over in WI. KMSP...Could see cigs late morning into the early afternoon dip down to 800 feet. But given climatologically, this is the time of day we see cigs rise, kept MVFR cigs going. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts. Sun...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb. Mon...MVFR/SHRA. Chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10G20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...ETA AVIATION...MPG