FXUS66 KMFR 201916 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1116 AM PST TUE JAN 20 2015 .DISCUSSION...UPDATES WERE MADE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND EXPAND FOG COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE DEEPER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWED SOME WET ROADS AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY SO LIGHT DRIZZLE WAS ADDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON ONLY TO RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MND && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER, VALLEY INVERSIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MANY OF THE VALLEYS TO CLEAR TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD REMAIN UNDER LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING, THE INVERSION IS STRONGER AND CLOUD THICKNESS THICKER. IT IS ALSO DRIER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH AN INCREASING EAST TO WEST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO GENERAL BURN OFF TIME TODAY WAS PUSHED OUT TO ONE HOUR LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S OBSERVED BURN OFF. SUSPECT GRANTS PASS COULD REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALL DAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A DRYING AIR MASS. TONIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AGAIN. HOWEVER, EXPECT FOG FORMATION TIME TO BE LATER DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MEDFORD ROGUE VALLEY AREA, WHERE MORE FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW FOG FORMATION DUE TO DEPOSITION IN ADDITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND MIXING IN LIKELY IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS. BTL/BPN && .MARINE...UPDATED AT 900 AM, TUESDAY JANUARY 20, 2015... MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, WIND DRIVEN SEAS AND MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEEPENED SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AT WHICH TIME SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT, AND LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS. BTL/BPN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM PST TUE JAN 20 2015/ DISCUSSION...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO LEAD TO RATHER UNEVENTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO AS UPPER RIDGING TENDS TO DOMINATE. RATHER BENIGN ZONAL UPPER FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST, AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND RESULT IN MODERATE NORTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS. MANY INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL ONCE AGAIN WAKE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUD TODAY, BUT AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW IT TO BREAK THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUD/FOG PATTERN REPEATS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES RIGHT OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY, BUT INVERSIONS WILL KEEP VALLEYS COOLER THAN SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE COMES ASHORE WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE DO HAVE LOW POPS IN ALONG THE COAST AND WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ONLY BE A TEMPORARY BLIP BETWEEN RIDGES, HOWEVER, WITH A VERY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH A 580 DM RIDGE CENTERED RIGHT OVER US BY SUNDAY, 850 MB TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AS MUCH AS 17C, WHICH IF MIXED DOWN EVEN MOIST ADIABATICALLY, COULD HAVE OUR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. HOWEVER, MODELS STILL SHOW STUBBORN VALLEY INVERSIONS, SO THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED. SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS MAY BE QUITE WARM, THOUGH. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES A BIT. BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL HAVE ANY SHOT AT PRECIPITATION UNTIL MID WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. -WRIGHT && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-370. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376. $$ MND/TRW/BTL/BPN  FXUS66 KMFR 202253 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 253 PM PST TUE JAN 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING STILL IN THE ROGUE AND UMPQUA VALLEYS. IT DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON EITHER, IF AT ALL. CONSIDERING THAT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL IN ASHLAND, IT SEEMS THAT GRANTS PASS AND ROSEBURG LIKELY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON THAN MEDFORD. ALTHOUGH, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THEY DON'T BREAK OUT EITHER. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME VERY THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BASICALLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES INTO THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE RIDGE, COMES THE STRONG INVERSIONS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS RESULT IN COLDER VALLEY TEMPERATURES THAN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT ALSO STAGNANT AIR IN THE VALLEYS. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY ISSUED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT BRUSHES OVER THE AREA. THE MORE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE OUTSKIRTS OF THIS FRONT COULD DELIVER SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT THEN AREAS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WELL. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AGAIN, ESSENTIALLY PUSHING ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD A RETURN TO VALLEY FOG, LOW CLOUDS AND STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. MND .LONG TERM...SAT, JANUARY 24TH THROUGH TUE NIGHT, JANUARY 28TH... THIS TIME PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, TRANSITIONING TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER PERIOD WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BE WEAKENED AND UNDERCUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MORE SPECIFICALLY, WE EXPECT A STRONG INVERSION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN THE VALLEYS TO BE PRESENT THROUGH MONDAY. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL 5,000 FOOT FREE AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 50S TO EVEN THE LOWER 60S. OBVIOUSLY, THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR OUR THIN AND BELEAGUERED SNOWPACK. LOOKING OUT TO NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN UNUSUAL FOR JANUARY TYPE OF STORM ENTERING FROM THE SOUTH AS AN OPEN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO IT'S SOUTHERLY ORIGINS AND THE FACT THAT IT'S MOVING ACROSS SEA SURFACE WATERS OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT ARE 2 TO 3 CELSIUS ABOVE NORMAL, SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGH, ONCE AGAIN- PROBABLY MOSTLY IN THE 7KFT TO 8KFT RANGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR SOUTH FLOW FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS MOUNT SHASTA. THE OUTLOOK, BEYOND THE 28TH, IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, ON AVERAGE, THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. LONG RANGE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD A NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FEBRUARY, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CALIFORNIA, AS A WHOLE, TENDS TO GET THE MAJORITY OF IT'S PRECIPITATION IN FEBRUARY. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH, THERE'S MORE UNCERTAINTY, BUT TRENDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL WETNESS, OF LATE. BTL && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER, VALLEY INVERSIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MANY OF THE VALLEYS TO CLEAR TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD REMAIN UNDER LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING, THE INVERSION IS STRONGER AND CLOUD THICKNESS THICKER. IT IS ALSO DRIER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH AN INCREASING EAST TO WEST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO GENERAL BURN OFF TIME TODAY WAS PUSHED OUT TO ONE HOUR LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S OBSERVED BURN OFF. SUSPECT GRANTS PASS COULD REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALL DAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A DRYING AIR MASS. TONIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED AGAIN. HOWEVER, EXPECT FOG FORMATION TIME TO BE LATER DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MEDFORD ROGUE VALLEY AREA, WHERE MORE FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW FOG FORMATION DUE TO DEPOSITION IN ADDITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND MIXING IN LIKELY IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS. BTL/BPN && .MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM TUESDAY 20 JANUARY 2015...MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT AND MODERATE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER THE LAST WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODERATE SWELL WILL LAST LONGER...VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ029>031-623>625. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376. $$ MND/BTL/JRS  FXUS66 KMFR 052243 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 243 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INSIDE LONGITUDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. WE ARE CONTINUING THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF KLAMATH/LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE COOS COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 4-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY AROUND 6 PM. EXPECT BETWEEN 020-0.25" OF RAIN AT THE COAST WITH AREAS OF HALF INCH NEAR CAPE BLANCO AND GOLD BEACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT AROUND 0.20" IN THE ROSEBURG AREA. RAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BAND CLOSELY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND ALMOST 0.10" IS FORECAST FOR THE MEDFORD AREA. WESTERLY FLOW COULD WRING OUT MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CASCADES EXCEPT AROUND 0.05" IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. ON SATURDAY A WARM WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH NO PRECIPITATION INLAND. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CHANGE TO THE STRONG RIDGING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME DURING THIS WET SEASON THAT WE SEE PERSISTENT RIDGING...SOMETHING WE WERE MORE ACCUSTOMED TO SEEING DURING THE LAST 2 YEARS. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS RIDGING IS VERY WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG INVERSION AT NIGHT. IF THIS PATTERN HAD HAPPENED EARLIER IN THE SEASON LIKE DECEMBER OR JANUARY..WE WOULD EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT DURING THE DAY. SINCE WE ARE MOVING INTO FEBRUARY..THE GRADUALLY HIGHER SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BURN OFF THE FOG BY MID MORNING AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN SPITE OF THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES..WE ARE STILL CONCERNED WITH MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MEDFORD AND OTHER KEY STATIONS SHOW VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING TO JUST 2000 FEET OR SO. HOWEVER WE MAY SEE AFTERNOON WINDS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE BURNING INDEX A BIT. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT WHETHER WE WILL SEE PERSISTENT AIR STAGNATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM NIGHT AT BOTH BROOKINGS AND NORTH BEND. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN A BIT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM AT H850 THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGE WILL REMAIN WARM INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE KLAMATH/TULELAKE BASIN AS WELL AS THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 15-20 DEG RANGE FOR THE KLAMATH/TULELAKE AND GOOSE LAKE BASINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. /FB .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN OPEN THE DOOR FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS OFTEN IS THE CASE...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS...LIKE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...REMAINS LOW. MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF FASTEST AND STRONGEST. OFTEN THE FIRST FRONT TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...ENDS UP WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND HERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH UPSTREAM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TO 4000-5000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. SPILDE && .AVIATION...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...FOG HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BREAK AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN LIFR. IT IS PRETTY SHALLOW, SO EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE AT NORTH BEND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, THEN MOVE INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION. MVFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT. IFR PROBABLY DEVELOPS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT ROSEBURG, MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SPILDE && .MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016... BUOYS CURRENTLY SHOWING 16 FEET WITH GALES IN THE OUTER WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVENTUALLY, THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AND GALES WILL SUBSIDE. STILL EXPECTING STEEP SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT, SO A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. PAST SATURDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WITH VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE STEEP SEAS ENTERING THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. -SMITH && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031. CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-376. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ FJB/MAS/MAS  FXUS66 KMFR 120954 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 254 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 .Discussion...Fog and low stratus (FLS) surged up the coast last night and has impinged upon the coast and coastal river valleys below about 1000 feet elevation early this morning. Most recent NASA/SPoRT RGB imagery is showing the FLS inland about 10-12 miles up the Rogue River with similar intrusions also occuring in the lower Chetco, Coquille and Umpqua valleys. A few surface observations are indicating patchy light drizzle occurring along with the FLS, mainly south of Cape Blanco, so this has been added to the morning weather grids. Models are showing the marine layer peeling back toward the immediate coast by early this afternoon, but BL moisture remains very high over the coastal waters and doubt that it goes away completely, so we have also increased cloud cover there and along the immediate coast through tonight. Other than some high thin clouds, the rest of the area will be sunny today with another very warm afternoon as a ridge axis shifts overhead. Model 850 temps today are up a bit over yesterday, around 17-18C, so that translates to an afternoon high here in Medford in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees F. East side areas, including Klamath Falls, will have highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Warm weather will continue inland on Friday, but another marine push will keep coastal areas cooler. Some gusty afternoon/evening breezes can be expected in the Shasta valley and also over the east side. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system, currently located near 37.5 North and 141.5 West (975 miles off the SW Oregon coast), will move east-northeast to near 40.0 North and 133.5 West by Friday afternoon. This will draw some moisture northward into the CWA and with daytime surface heating, instability will develop by late afternoon and evening. Models continue to show a corridor of showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms developing from western Siskiyou county northward to Douglas county Friday evening. The GFS is most bullish with this activity, but the NAM/ECMWF/SREF guidance are all slightly weaker. The current forecast handles this well, so no changes have been made. The upper low will continue to move eastward Friday night and move onshore by Noon on Saturday. This will increase shower chances across the entire area. Instability though is best from the Cascades eastward Saturday afternoon/evening, where we have indicated a slight chance of thunderstorms. It will be much cooler across the entire area inland from the coast with temperatures 15-25 degrees lower than on Friday. The main energy associated with the upper low will move into eastern Oregon Saturday night into Sunday, then into Idaho Sunday night. This will keep a showery pattern over the area through Sunday, but should lead to a gradual decrease in showers from southwest to northeast across the area by Sunday night. Spilde Extended discussion from Wednesday afternoon...The pattern will remain progressive on Monday. The models have a similar evolution but the GFS is about 9 hours faster with the arrival of the next upper low to Vancouver Island. The southern end of a weak front associated with the low will likely keep conditions mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers north of the Umpqua Divide...with a dry forecast and more breaks in the clouds elsewhere. Model agreement breaks down beyond Monday though the pattern does look to remain progressive. The outlook for Tuesday is for near to slightly above normal temperatures and the next in a series of disturbances mainly affecting areas north of our area. A broader and stronger/colder trough looks to approach the region as early as Wednesday. The GFS is faster and likely too fast with its solution. For now...will stick with near normal temperatures and a broad brush of a chance of showers at the coast and slight chance inland for Wednesday. -DW && .Aviation...For the 12/06Z TAF cycle...Stratus with IFR to LIFR CIGS and VIS will remain along the coast through mid morning Thursday before retreating offshore. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period elsewhere. -Wright && .Marine...Updated 200 AM PDT Thu 12 May...Light winds and seas will continue today as high pressure offshore weakens. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next front but speed will remain below small craft criteria. The front will move onshore Friday night into Saturday. High pressure behind the front will bring stronger pressure gradient and stronger north winds to the area Sunday...increasing further late Monday to near small craft advisory levels. /FB && .MFR Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...None. $$ MAS/FJB/TRW  FXUS66 KMFR 221652 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 852 AM PST Thu Dec 22 2016 .UPDATE...Made a few updates this morning to account for sky cover changes, but otherwise no updates were necessary. The current freezing fog advisory for the Medford area will expire with the morning update package, which seems prudent given the thin fog depth at this time. Some areas of fog may continue through the morning, with slick spots likely on some area roads, but the main threat has dissipated. For more forecast information, see the previous discussion below. -BPN && .AVIATION...22/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon...except for patchy west side valley IFR/LIFR through mid-morning. Ceilings will lower ahead of a cold front with MVFR and precipitation developing at the coast this evening then spreading inland overnight. -DW && .MARINE...Updated 8:45 AM PST Thursday 22 December 2016...The forecast remains mostly on track. Have not updated the previous forecast, but wanted to note that there is a channel of slightly stronger winds near buoy 27 which is meandering back and forth creating brief periods of 15 kt winds. This is expected to dissipate shortly while west-northwest swell remaining high and steep through Saturday night. A cold front will approach today then bring stronger southerly winds tonight with a brief period of gale force gusts possible near Cape Blanco into early Friday morning. Winds veer to northerly behind the front with gusty winds Friday into Friday evening that will be strongest in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco. High pressure will return for the weekend with improving conditions Sunday into Monday. Another front is likely to approach Monday night or Tuesday with a building long period west swell, advisory strength winds likely, and a return of high and steep seas. -Schaaf/DW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM PST Thu Dec 22 2016/ SHORT TERM...We fogged in over the Rogue Valley this morning, and with temperatures in the mid 20s, it's the freezing variety. We haven't seen a lot of ice deposition, but certainly elevated surfaces are getting frost, so in addition to the reduced visibilities, there may be some locally slippery conditions on roads and walkways this morning. A freezing fog advisory (PDXNPWMFR) is in effect until 9 AM. Elsewhere, it's mostly clear except for a little stratus evident on satellite in the Umpqua basin and in the Scott Valley. Can't rule out some sudden onset fog around sunrise (the so-called "sunrise surprise") in almost any valley, but it isn't evident right now. High clouds are already arriving at the coast in advance of a frontal system which will bring widespread rain and mountain snow tonight and Friday. The models haven't changed much from what previous shifts were looking at, so neither has the forecast. This looks like a pretty good soaker for the coast with storm total rainfall ranging from around an inch over the Coos Coast to around an inch and a half at the Curry Coast and adjacent mountains. Inland valleys look on track to get around a half inch of rain. Snow will pile up in the mountains above 3500-4000 feet with a solid foot of snow in the Cascades and Siskiyous and lesser amounts on the east side. This will bring some travel difficulties over all area passes and much of the east side and northern California. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories remain in effect for these areas. See PDXWSWMFR for details. In addition to the rain and snow with the front, breezy to windy conditions are expected over the Shasta Valley and east side as the front pushes inland Friday morning. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, so high wind warning type winds don't look probable, but we may need some wind advisories if current trends continue. Snow levels crash behind the cold front Friday night and will probably be down as low as 1000 feet by Saturday morning. Much of the precipitation will be over, but there will still be showers around, any of which could bring some minor snow accumulations to the lower valleys. At this point, we don't think this will impact holiday travel in the lower elevations, but there may be some isolated slick spots to watch out for. Things will dry out later Saturday, but temperatures will be chilly. -Wright LONG TERM...Christmas Day through Wednesday...The extended portion of the forecast has trended drier under deep northwest flow. Temperatures will generally be near to below normal through Tuesday. Freezing fog is certainly possible Sunday and Monday mornings in most West Side valleys. The air mass dries significantly on Monday, so freezing fog potential decreases some that day. A cold front reaches the forecast area from the northwest on Tuesday and spreads mountain snow and valley rain mainly across areas from the Cascades westward. Precipitation amounts with this system should be generally light to moderate. Several GEFS members suggest little to no precipitation over the forecast area, keeping it only over the coast near Reedsport. Therefore, precipitation chances are generally around 50 percent or less, highest in the Cascades, Roseburg, and North Bend. Snow levels with this system are expected to be around 4000 feet. Operational models are in good agreement on upper ridging and dry conditions late next week, mainly Wednesday and Thursday. This could signal a period of valley fog/freezing and sunny conditions in the mountains, but it's too early to pin this down. -NSK && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Friday for ORZ029>031. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for ORZ027-028. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for ORZ026. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ084-085. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday ABOVE 3000 FEET for for CAZ080-081. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ082. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ083. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ BPN/BMS/TRW/DW/NSK  FXUS66 KMFR 311714 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 914 AM PST Tue Jan 31 2017 .UPDATE... && .DISCUSSION... No major changes to the short term forecast. Overcast skies currently dominate the skies and really inhibited any fog formation last night. The air stagnation advisory will cancel later on today as we're expecting deeper mixing and windier conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In addition, rain is entering the forecast, that was considered as well. For more information on the upcoming weather late this week, read the previous discussion appended below. && .AVIATION...31/12Z TAF Cycle...With high clouds increasing, fog will be less likely this morning and coverage could be patchy at best. There may instead be patchy fog near KMFR but not at the terminal itself. Satellite IFR Probability shows potential exists in far northern Douglas County north of the Umpqua River. Areas of IFR conditions are possible from Cape Arago southwestward out to 30 nm offshore of Gold Beach. /FB && .MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Tuesday 31 January 2017...High pressure will remain over the waters through Tuesday with light winds and seas remaining generally below 10 feet. However, due to north wind seas and westerly swell, seas will be somewhat chaotic and steep today and into tonight. The models have not changed much with the arrival of the next surface low. Winds will still be mainly from the east to southeast with the strongest winds expected to be south and west of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. However, there is a chance that a steep south to southwest fresh swell could affect the southern outer waters by Thursday morning, courtesy of the developing surface low near 35N/145W on Wednesday. Confidence of the timing and track of the low is low to medium, so it will warrant close watching over the next few days. -Petrucelli/BPN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM PST Tue Jan 31 2017/ DISCUSSION...Model agreement between the ECMWF, GFS, and GFS ensemble members has increased through Thursday and is moderate into Friday. The changes in our weather will be relatively minor through Wednesday evening then the pattern will turn wet and active. Mid and high level clouds have increased ahead of a broad upper low centered far offshore of northern California...near 34.5N 144W. There will also be a gradual increase in southerly winds which will finally help improve mixing of the air mass in valleys this afternoon. There also remains a slight chance to chance of very light rain/snow Today through Wednesday. There will be an increase of weak lift and an increase of mainly mid level moisture that should be enough to produce mainly virga but also some very light precipitation with a snow level around 4500 to 5500 feet. The probability will be highest from the Umpqua Divide northward and from this afternoon through tonight as a front oscillates between ridging over the Great Basin, a broad trough over the northern Rockies, and the approaching trough far offshore. The pattern will more noticeably change Wednesday night as the pacific trough approaches. Southerly winds will increase late Wednesday. There is increased model agreement that precipitation will arrive from the southwest and spread into Siskiyou County beginning around 10 PM on Wednesday evening. The model trend has been a slight weakening of precipitation amounts late Wednesday night through Thursday, but still a likelihood that the event begins as snowfall in the vicinity of Mt Shasta with a snow level around 3500 to 4000 feet. There is still uncertainty in whether this will be more of an advisory level or warning level event. Around 2 to 5 inches of snow is forecast for western and southern Siskiyou County late Wednesday night through Thursday...except higher amounts of up to a foot for the higher terrain in that area. Amounts will be highest in western and southern Siskiyou County with the aid of southerly upslope flow. 18 hour snowfall amounts elsewhere are forecast in the range of 1 to 4 inches. Breezy to windy southerly winds are expected to be strongest in the southern Shasta Valley. Southerly low level flow is expected to increase Thursday night and bring higher snow levels rising to 5000 to 5500 feet while the upper level low tracks east-northeastward to near 40N 130W. Winds in the Shasta Valley, and perhaps locally on the east side as well could reach advisory strength. There are still model differences regarding the duration and timing of the heaviest precipitation, but general agreement that it will affect southern Siskiyou County between Thursday and Friday. The upper trough is forecast to move inland Friday into Friday night while another trough retrogrades from Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. This will continue a wet onshore flow Friday night at least through the weekend...and possibly through Tuesday night. The position of this trough and the disturbances rotating through it are highly uncertain. Snow levels will begin Friday a bit higher than normal ..around 4500 to 5000 feet then likely decrease during the weekend or early next week to 3500 to 4000 feet. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ024-026-029>031. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ370-376. $$ CZS/BPN/FJB  FXUS66 KMFR 031549 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 849 AM PDT Sat Jun 3 2017 .DISCUSSION...A deep marine push last night and this morning brought stratus into almost all of Douglas County, which then spilled over into portions of northern Josephine County. Some of these clouds have made it to around Grants Pass. Surface observations and a pilot report this morning indicate that cloud bases near Roseburg were 1400-1800 feet with tops up near 4500 feet. The GOES-W cloud thickness product is also showing the cloud layer to be ~2500 feet. That's a pretty thick layer, which will likely result in later burn off times than yesterday...and it may never completely erode in some places. Right now, it should erode from the edges late this morning and mostly burn off by early afternoon. This will keep temperatures there from getting much above 70 degrees, but where it doesn't burn off, highs will be in the 60s. There could still be a bit of drizzle for the next couple of hours. In the Rogue and Illinois Valleys, another sunny to partly cloudy day is expected with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. We still expect an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms to form near and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, with the greatest potential for thunder in the Trinity Alps to the Mount Shasta and Goosenest/Tennant areas. -Spilde && .AVIATION...03/12Z TAF CYCLE...Stratus is covering the coast and inland to the coastal ranges, and inland north of of the Umpqua divide tot he Cascades, but does not looks to be spilling south into the Rogue valley except for a few locations. Models are indicating that some will spill over into Josephine county with some piling up in the south end of Jackson county, but not over the Medford airport. The stratus is expected to burn off to the coast from the coastal ranges, but only very briefly inland in the Umpqua basin this afternoon, if at all. Stratus is expected to return with a similar pattern Sunday morning, with possible MVFR ceilings in the Rogue valley. Sven && .MARINE...Updated 400 AM Saturday 3 June 2017...A thermal trough will strengthen today and the models suggest low end small craft conditions from about Port Orford south and between 5 nm and 40 nm offshore. Winds are expected to settle down slightly Sunday morning, but the models suggest they will reach low end small craft conditions Sunday afternoon in the southern outer waters. Confidence is not high enough to issue a small craft for this even, but we'll continue to monitor. The thermal trough will strengthen again on Monday with small craft and possibly gale force winds late Monday morning through Tuesday morning. High pressure will weaken with winds and seas diminishing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A pattern that is more typical for late winter and early spring could impact the waters later Wednesday into Thursday with winds shifting to the south with at least small craft conditions possible Wednesday evening and night. Keep in mind this is still a ways out and the details on this could change, so stay tuned for the latest updates in the days to come. -Sven && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 510 AM PDT Sat Jun 3 2017/ DISCUSSION... An upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will approach today and then move through the forecast on Sunday. Increasing cloud cover and onshore flow today will lead to temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than were observed yesterday. Sunday will be about 10 degrees cooler still, with most areas experiencing highs in the 60s and 70s, which is about 5 degrees below normal. We expect an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms to form near and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, with the greatest potential for thunder in the Trinity Alps to the Mount Shasta and Goosenest/Tennant areas. On Sunday the focus of activity shifts a bit eastward as the trough moves inland, with showers over the East Side. Guidance indicates that Lake County should experience the most in the way of showers and isolated thunderstorms. These storms could also produce gusty winds and small hail, as well as wetting rainfall. Gusty northwest winds are also expected. Monday through Wednesday early summer-like weather returns with dry conditions and warming temperatures. However, Monday morning is likely to start off cool with frosty 30s over most East Side valleys and many 40s across the valleys of the West Side. By Wednesday highs will be the 80 to 90 degree range with 90 to 95 in the usual hot spots. A negatively tilted trough is expected to arrive Thursday. The ECMWF has definitively trended toward the GFS in indicating an impressively cool and wet trough of low pressure moving into the area with wetting rainfall and fairly low snow levels Thursday into next weekend. While just how cold and wet are still to be determined, the GFS and EC operational runs are fairly well agreed on snow levels dipping into the 5-7kft range and measurable precipitation across most of the area as a -27C 500mb cold pool approaches and then pivots through the forecast area. We'll be honing in on this one more as it approaches. BTL AVIATION...03/12Z TAF CYCLE...Stratus is breaking up along the immediate coast this morning, with the exception of near and south of Gold Beach, where conditions will remain IFR/MVFR for the next few hours. MVFR stratus does remain entrenched over interior Coos County and over most of Douglas with terrain obscured. Some of this is spilling over into Josephine County near Galice, but remains mostly north and west of Grants Pass. This will burn off from the edges slowly late this morning and should become VFR most areas by early afternoon. MVFR, however, could linger all afternoon in some areas. VFR will prevail elsewhere with isolated thunderstorms possible from south-central Siskiyou County and near and east of the Cascades late this afternoon/evening. Stratus is expected to return with a similar pattern Sunday morning, with possible MVFR ceilings in the Rogue valley. Sven/Spilde MARINE...Updated 400 AM Saturday 3 June 2017...A thermal trough will strengthen today and the models suggest low end small craft conditions from about Port Orford south and between 5 nm and 40 nm offshore. Winds are expected to settle down slightly Sunday morning, but the models suggest they will reach low end small craft conditions Sunday afternoon in the southern outer waters. Confidence is not high enough to issue a small craft for this even, but we'll continue to monitor. The thermal trough will strengthen again on Monday with small craft and possibly gale force winds late Monday morning through Tuesday morning. High pressure will weaken with winds and seas diminishing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A pattern that is more typical for late winter and early spring could impact the waters later Wednesday into Thursday with winds shifting to the south with at least small craft conditions possible Wednesday evening and night. Keep in mind this is still a ways out and the details on this could change, so stay tuned for the latest updates in the days to come. -Sven && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. $$ MAS/BTL/SBN