FXUS64 KMAF 151030 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 530 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2013 .DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL OK...MEANDERING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SFC TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS TIGHTENED UP PRESS GRADS ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN HIGH WINDS THRU THE GUADALUPES. LATEST OBS/MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS COULD CONTINUE A FEW HOURS INTO THE FIRST PERIOD...AND SO WE/LL LET THE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY RIDE THRU 18Z. MEANWHILE...AREA RADARS SHOW YESTERDAY/S N-S BAND OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS REORIENTED NW-SE...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MPE ESTIMATES THAT ALREADY OVER 1 IN. HAS FALLEN W/THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. KMAF 00Z RAOB CAME IN W/PWATS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SATELLITE SOUNDER IMAGERY INDICATES IT IS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...AS MODELS PREDICTED W/THE ARRIVAL OF LAST NIGHT/S BOUNDARY. KMAF BUFFER SOUNDINGS KEEP INCREASING PWATS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1.75 IN...OVER 2 STD DEVS ABV NORMAL. COUPLED W/FORECAST WARM LYR CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3-3.5KM...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TODAY...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPOSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO ABUNDANT LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON QPF THAN YESTERDAY...AND SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO S CENTRAL NM. HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO MEXICO SW OF KELP. THUS...WE/VE CONTINUED YESTERDAY/S FFA...OVERLAPPING A SECOND FFA TO COVER THE WRN ZONES FROM TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MODELS TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE BAJA REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...A LITTLE FARTHER SW THAN RUNS 24 HRS AGO. THIS WILL STILL LEAVE THE FA OPEN TO ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INFLUX...AND A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY SW ZONES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/H85 TEMPS SUGGEST BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE EXTENDED...AND W/EXPECTED RAINFALL...CLOUD COVER...AND ABSENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE...WE/VE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 76 63 76 62 / 40 30 80 70 BIG SPRING TX 74 66 77 64 / 60 70 80 60 CARLSBAD NM 76 66 79 63 / 30 20 60 70 DRYDEN TX 82 70 80 70 / 40 50 60 40 FORT STOCKTON TX 76 67 76 66 / 30 50 60 50 GUADALUPE PASS TX 71 58 74 60 / 30 20 40 70 HOBBS NM 78 58 76 62 / 30 30 80 70 MARFA TX 75 60 69 59 / 30 30 40 40 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 77 66 77 64 / 40 50 80 60 ODESSA TX 76 65 77 62 / 30 40 80 70 WINK TX 81 67 75 65 / 30 30 80 70 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR... GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL... PECOS...REAGAN...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. && $$ 80/44