FXUS64 KLUB 032043 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 343 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013 .SHORT TERM... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGE/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW KS INTO NE NM. OTHER ISOLD STORMS FORMING IN HIGHER TERRAIN VCNTY RUIDOSO NM. A FEW CU ALSO STARTING TO FORM ALONG AND EAST OF CAPROCK WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES. PRIMARY SHORTWV ENERGY FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ALONG DIFFUSE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN PNHDL INTO WRN OK. THESE STORMS SHOULD TURN SE INTO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS EVENING AND COULD BRUSH THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER 7 PM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN NM ATTM AND THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO AID IN HIGH BASED STORMS WORKING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS TAPPING INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE. INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH ALONG SOUTHERN EXTENT OF DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES FROM TULIA SW TOWARD LEVELLAND. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND POSSIBILITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG CAPROCK HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS VCNTY CHILDRESS. ALSO KEPT SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE AREA OVERNIGHT NORTH OF PLAINVIEW AS NM ACTIVITY COULD SURVIVE TRACK EASTWARD. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT MIXING LOW LEVELS AND HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY HOT DAY TUE AS DRYLINE MIXES INTO ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BENEATH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TUE AFTERNOON WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY EXITING OUR PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID EVENING. && .LONG TERM... BY TUESDAY EVENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50KT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL MOSTLY BE LIFTING DRY AIR. THEREFORE...CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 00Z. THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE PANHANDLE. THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THIS WEEK MAY BE OUR FINAL CHANCE TO MISS OUT ON RAIN FOR THE SPRING SEASON. UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS IN AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT REGION OF A 70KT JET. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER THIS DAY WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND MAKE A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. MEANINGFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE BY THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GET A PRONOUNCED BOOST ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST VALUES OFF THE CAPROCK. THEREFORE WE WILL FINALLY GET TO SEE DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. PROGGED WCD VALUES AT THE MOMENT ARE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0KM. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WINDS DO APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY FOR A BONAFIDE HEAVY RAIN EVENT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...CONVECTION AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BACKING MOISTURE UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. CONVECTION MAY THEN FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS. BUT BETTER COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. A LARGE SUMMER TIME RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL APPEAR TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE DEVELOPING AN OMEGA BLOCK. JDV && .FIRE WEATHER... AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST TUE AFTN WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTN RH VALUES WILL END UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WHILE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 MPH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 63 97 62 85 57 / 20 10 10 20 40 TULIA 68 99 63 86 58 / 20 10 10 20 40 PLAINVIEW 69 102 64 89 60 / 20 10 10 20 40 LEVELLAND 65 102 66 95 61 / 20 0 0 20 40 LUBBOCK 70 104 67 95 62 / 20 10 10 20 40 DENVER CITY 63 103 67 99 62 / 10 0 0 20 30 BROWNFIELD 65 104 68 99 62 / 20 0 0 20 30 CHILDRESS 68 102 69 92 64 / 20 20 20 20 50 SPUR 69 106 70 98 64 / 20 10 10 20 40 ASPERMONT 70 105 71 101 67 / 10 20 10 20 40 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 24/01  FXUS64 KLUB 120934 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 434 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 .SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL PATTERN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS A CONTRIBUTOR TO A VERY SUBTLE DECREASE IN PROGGED 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS TODAY UP TO 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY...AND MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 0 AND 1 DEGREE...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT IN LINE WITH WARMER MAVMOS NUMBERS GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SOUTH WINDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS NIL WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM... PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN CONUS RIDGING WILL TUG OUR SUBTROPICAL HIGH EAST BEGINNING TOMORROW AND ALLOW A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE TO LIFT NORTH FROM OLD MEXICO COMPLETE WITH PRECIP CHANCES. DEEPENING MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES OFF THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY. POTENTIALLY NARROW NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FAVORING THE BEST MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GREATEST. INITIAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR SWRN COUNTIES...BUT THE DEEPEST ASCENT AND BEST POP CHANCES ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANT WARM CORE LOW AS IT SPREADS ATOP THE REGION. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN MID- LEVEL WINDS BY SATURDAY SPELLS A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MODEL PWATS SOAR TO 2 INCHES. SHOULD THE WAVE TRACK ANY FARTHER WEST...THEN THIS THREAT WOULD SHIFT ONTO THE CAPROCK. BEHIND THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...UPPER RIDGING REBOUNDS WESTWARD OVER ERN NM AND LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ANEMIC IN INTENSITY. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE CHANCES CAN EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIDGE. AS WE SUSPECTED...THE ECMWF WAS TOO STRONG YESTERDAY WITH ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH RACING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WHERE THE CURRENT ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S RUNS IS THAT IT FAVORS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EFFECTIVELY NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND LOCAL AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO AS IT KEEPS A 500MB HIGH ANCHORED A BIT CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT ANY DECAY OF THIS HIGH FROM REPEATED CONVECTIVE EPISODES COULD CERTAINLY OPEN THE DOOR TO A WETTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS WERE COOLED OFF SEVERAL DEGREES FRI AND SAT IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES THANKS WITH THE DEEPENING MOISTURE. NO && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 95 66 94 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 20 TULIA 97 68 95 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 PLAINVIEW 95 70 95 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 LEVELLAND 94 69 94 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 20 LUBBOCK 96 70 95 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 20 DENVER CITY 95 68 93 68 83 / 0 0 0 10 20 BROWNFIELD 94 70 94 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 20 CHILDRESS 99 72 100 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 SPUR 95 71 96 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 ASPERMONT 98 71 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07/93  FXUS64 KLUB 122011 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 311 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 .SHORT TERM... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL DOMINATE WEATHER WITH 594DAM HEIGHT NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HEAT BUT CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS A WEAKNESS MOVES NORTH OUT OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIOEND WEAK UL LOW...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WORK ITS WAY INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BUT OTHERWISE CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM... RAIN CHANCES ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS FORECAST ITERATION. IF ANYTHING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL FAVOR SATURDAY FOR HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN AS WELL. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT AT THE JET LEVEL WITH THIS WAVE WITH EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. CLOUD LAYER FLOW WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN ON SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN LIFT MOVES OUT OVER THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS DEPICTS EXPECTED VERY LOW NCAPE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.65 AND 1.85 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED. THIS EQUATES TO ANOMALIES OF AROUND 175 TO 200 PERCENT. FURTHERMORE...BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL DEEPEN TO 3.5KM AND LOWERING LCLS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LITTLE RAINFALL NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND SQUASHING NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. JDV && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 62 95 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 TULIA 66 97 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 PLAINVIEW 65 96 68 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 LEVELLAND 65 95 68 84 65 / 0 0 0 20 20 LUBBOCK 66 95 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 20 DENVER CITY 64 93 68 82 65 / 0 0 10 20 20 BROWNFIELD 66 94 68 83 66 / 0 0 0 20 20 CHILDRESS 71 100 72 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 20 SPUR 70 97 72 91 68 / 0 0 0 10 30 ASPERMONT 73 98 74 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 30 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 26/01  FXUS64 KLUB 132016 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 316 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 .SHORT TERM... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ALL THE WAY UP PAST THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DOMINATES THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO TEXAS ACROSS THE BIG BEND. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS. AT PRESENT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY. ALL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID DAY THEN BEGIN ENCROACHING PERHAPS FIRST ON THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E MAXIMA AND MOVE NWRD. WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.5IN...AT LEAST SOME EFFECTIVE RAIN PRODUCERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 6-10 EXA EV/G (TO 1.5KJ/KG) SHOULD BE PRESENT BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT ALONG WITH LIMITED SHEAR...MORE OR LESS ALONG THE EASTERN EXTREMITY OF CONVECTIVE AREA ONLY UP AROUND 30 KTS (0-6KM). && .LONG TERM... OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LESS CERTAIN IN THE COMING DAYS. THE LATEST GFS IS STILL A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. NEARLY THE ONLY LIFT THAT WILL BE GENERATED WILL BE FROM THE 700-500MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE AT 250MB IT LOOKS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HAVE EQUAL CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN PREVIOUSLY IT WAS THOUGHT THAT SATURDAY WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES. THE SOUTH PLAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY. LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HARMS HEAVY RAIN CHANCES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E FIELDS DURING THE MORNING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NIL WITH MODERATE AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY. AS MOIST AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE THERE WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH VERY LOW NCAPES. THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY RAIN CHANCES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ALSO NOT THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WHAT HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. PW WILL PEAK SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. OVERALL...THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE LESS LIKELY TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT MAKE AS STRONG RETURN TO THE REGION AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TO INVADE WEST TEXAS NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL STILL BE FAVORED AT THE MOMENT. JDV && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 64 87 64 90 66 / 10 20 20 20 10 TULIA 66 88 66 89 68 / 0 20 20 20 10 PLAINVIEW 67 89 66 89 69 / 0 20 30 30 10 LEVELLAND 65 87 67 90 69 / 10 20 30 20 10 LUBBOCK 70 87 68 89 70 / 10 20 30 30 10 DENVER CITY 65 86 66 92 68 / 10 40 40 20 10 BROWNFIELD 66 86 67 90 69 / 10 30 40 30 10 CHILDRESS 70 95 70 89 72 / 0 0 30 40 10 SPUR 70 91 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 40 10 ASPERMONT 73 94 72 89 73 / 10 10 30 40 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 26/01  FXUS64 KLUB 200955 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 455 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013 .SHORT TERM... AN OTHERWISE PROMISING SETUP FOR DROUGHT-BUSTING RAINFALL ON THE SOUTH PLAINS IS QUICKLY DISAPPEARING AS AN AXIS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS REMAINING TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROVING TOO STUBBORN FOR PRECIP AS IT ENCOUNTERS ONLY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYERS FOR LIFTING. THE USUAL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS... BUT HERE AT OUR OFFICE WE/VE ONLY EAKED OUT 0.02 OF AN INCH. OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE AT LEAST ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE DEEPEST SATURATED CLOUD DEPTHS AND WILL LIKELY SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. ADD TO THIS SOME COUPLED LIFT FROM AN UPPER JET MAX NEARBY AND DECENT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS... THOUGH THE WINDOW FOR FLOODING WILL BE SMALL COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACT TO SLOW THE FRONT/S SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND PROLONG RAINFALL. WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MARKEDLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY SEEN ENTERING THE OK PANHANDLE...BUT OUR NELY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TAPPING MOIST TRAJECTORIES FROM LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST BEFORE SURFACE RIDGING AND LIGHTER WINDS DRY US OUT LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET. THIS LEADS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO OUR EARLIER FORECAST AND ALSO SETS THE STAGE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN DRY SURFACE RIDGING/LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING. EDGED LOW TEMPS SOUTH A COUPLE DEGREES ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE SOIL MOISTURE IS COMPARABLY LESS THAN POINTS FARTHER EAST. LASTLY...DID INSERT SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING FOR OUR RESIDENTS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON TO HAVE LOW CEILINGS AT PLAINVIEW AND LUBBOCK WITH EVEN LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR FOG FOUND ALONG THE NORTHEAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. ANY FOG THREAT TONIGHT LOOKS SLIM AS NORTHEAST WINDS BACK NORTH AND DRY OUT. && .LONG TERM... THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY GIVING US A BONUS DAY OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP SLOWLY. LATE SUNDAY..A TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS COLORADO WHICH WILL HELP A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF DEVELOP AND INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL HAVE WORKED BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SO THERE WILL BE NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IF NOT ALL. A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SHOULD REDEVELOP AS WELL AND WE MAY SEE A WEAK DRYLINE DEVELOP BUT IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS MAY HELP ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP. JUST PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRO TN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY HELP COOL THINGS DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. JORDAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 72 48 79 53 82 / 20 0 0 0 10 TULIA 72 50 78 52 82 / 20 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 72 51 78 53 82 / 20 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 73 50 80 55 84 / 20 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 74 52 78 55 82 / 20 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 74 56 80 57 83 / 20 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 74 53 79 57 84 / 20 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 75 55 83 54 84 / 20 0 0 0 0 SPUR 74 57 79 57 83 / 30 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 75 60 81 57 85 / 60 10 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93/14  FXUS64 KLUB 201035 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 435 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013 .SHORT TERM... IT IS NOT OFTEN WE ARE ABLE TO DISCUSS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LESS THAN ONE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS LET ALONE DURING EXTENDED PERIODS OF DROUGHT BUT IT DOES SOMETIMES OCCUR. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC HAS BEGUN ITS EASTWARD JOG MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT HAS QUICKLY DISPLAYED ITS POWER WITH SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEARING OVER ARIZONA. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING HEIGHT FALLS OVER WEST TEXAS ALONG WITH A PLUME OF MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE REGION. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH INCREASING TO SPEEDS BETWEEN 130 AND 140KT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SPREADING OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT. OVERALL LIFT WILL PEAK BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALREADY BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL ADD TO THE LIFT AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS MESOSCALE LIFT IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. THIS LIFT WILL ACT UPON A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BY THIS EVENING AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AN IMPRESSIVE ONE INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN AN INCREDIBLE 200 AND 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE VERY RESPECTABLE FOR DECEMBER WITH VALUES AROUND 2.5 TO 3.0KM AT ITS DEEPEST. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY TO CONSIDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 100 J/KG WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE PRIMARY PHASE SHOULD BE LIQUID ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. FROM 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY...AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY COOL OFF ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES ANY WHERE BETWEEN -2C TO +1C AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE WARM LAYER IS VERY DEEP WITH ABUNDANT LIFT. THIS WILL WANT TO WARM THE SURFACE BY BRINGING SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY AND WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM... THE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT HAS YET TO FULLY EMBOLDEN THE SATURDAY FORECAST...WHERE DOUBT REMAINS REGARDING A POTENTIAL TROWAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED WITHIN RANGE WHERE THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS SPREAD REGARDING PATH OF THE LOW...TIMING...AND DEPTH/STRENGTH TRENDS. IN FACT...WE FEEL MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOW PASSING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY. AND THE LATEST TRENDS OF LESS DEEPENING WITH A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO MAKE BETTER SENSE TO US. YET SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROWAL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE THINK THE FURTHER SOUTH LOW PASSAGE IS ENOUGH BY ITSELF TO JUSTIFY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FOR NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE THE TYPE OF MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAT WOULD JUSTIFY A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CONSIDERATION FOR LATE ON SATURDAY. ALSO...WITH THE VERY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LOW...SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON SATURDAY TO ROUGHLY HALF OF THOSE EARLY IN THE DAY...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS LOW WILL ACTUALLY DEEPEN AS IT SWINGS ACROSS ON SATURDAY...EVEN PERHAPS SLOW A STEP...WHICH COULD BRING THAT TROWAL FULLY INTO PLAY. TIME OF YEAR...OF COURSE...MEANS THE REQUIRED CONSIDERATION FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS POSSIBLE TROWAL. ANYWAY...THE CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST ON SATURDAY DO INCLUDE UPPING PRECIPITATION TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AN EXTENSION OF THE EARLY MORNING FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 15Z OR 18Z SATURDAY. WE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY IN THE DAY MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST. BUT...WE STILL FAVOR A MARKED DRYING WITH POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAVE A FIRM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THERMAL GRADIENT IN OUR GRIDS. AGAIN...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS LOW FORMS MUCH OF THE BASIS FOR OUR LINE OF REASONING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND AS A DRY PATTERN SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH EARLY AND A WEAKER VERSION MID-WEEK. SHALLOW SLOSHING COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY ADDRESS EARLY IN THE WEEK... NOTE THE 06Z NAM COLD FRONT FOR EARLY MONDAY THAT WAS NOT ON THE HORIZON PREVIOUSLY. BUT IN GENERAL WE WILL MODERATE BY TUESDAY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A BIT OF A DOWN-TURN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. ENJOY WHATEVER RAIN WE GET. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 48 34 42 25 40 / 30 50 60 20 10 TULIA 44 31 40 26 40 / 30 60 60 20 0 PLAINVIEW 45 36 42 27 41 / 40 70 60 20 0 LEVELLAND 49 41 54 28 43 / 60 80 50 10 0 LUBBOCK 47 37 50 28 43 / 60 80 50 10 0 DENVER CITY 50 42 54 29 44 / 70 80 30 10 0 BROWNFIELD 48 41 54 29 44 / 70 90 30 10 0 CHILDRESS 38 32 39 28 41 / 30 90 60 10 0 SPUR 43 37 49 30 44 / 50 90 50 10 0 ASPERMONT 45 37 52 31 44 / 50 90 60 10 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01/05  FXUS64 KLUB 241005 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 505 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014 .SHORT TERM... MATURE MCS IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT OUR WESTERN AND NWRN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. STOUT SOUTHEAST LLJ OF 50 KNOTS AS SAMPLED BY MIDLAND/S VWP SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS COMPLEX THROUGH 12Z OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO AN IMPRESSIVE -77C AS OF 08Z...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ERN NM IN THE NEAR TERM AS CLOUD TOPS UNDERGO GRADUAL WARMING. THE 03Z SREF IS OUTPERFORMING THE REMAINING OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THIS MCS THUS FAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. BRUNT OF THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS MCS WILL FORTUNATELY FALL OVER AREAS THAT MISSED OUT OF YESTERDAY/S RAINS...SO THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK. THIS STORY COULD EASILY CHANGE LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER JET CORE ROTATES ACROSS EASTERN NM AND SERVES TO BOLSTER DEEP LAYER ASCENT VIA ENHANCED UL DIVERGENCE. EVEN WITH SOME STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS BEING MAINTAINED ON MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS A GOOD BET PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM INITIATING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN NM...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER FLOW TRENDS INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW STILL IN ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOW VERY LOW LCL HEIGHTS FOR OUR AREA WITH FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40+ KNOTS. AVERAGE MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG IN THIS SETUP SHOULD EASILY BREED SOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND EVEN WET DOWNBURSTS GIVEN DEEP CLOUD DEPTHS. DESPITE WEAK LL SHEAR...THE TORNADO THREAT IS CERTAINLY NON-ZERO AND SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED NEAR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BDRY(S) FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS. KEPT LIKELY POPS INTACT TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A LULL LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LLJ HELPS FOCUS ANOTHER MCS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM INTO OUR CWA. && .LONG TERM... MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW BUT DIFFER ON THE TRACK SOMEWHAT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE CORE OF THE LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST FOR SUNDAY STILL DEPENDS ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD FOR TODAY. MODELS GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AFTER THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BATCH OF CONVECTION STARTING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THEN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALONG WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS...LIMITING INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. ON THE FLIP SIDE... TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT JUST A BIT INCREASING LAPSE RATES SOME WHICH COULD OFFSET THE LACK OF HEATING. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO BROAD BRUSH 40 TO 50 POPS WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR NOW. PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH SO THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW WILL HAVE SLID FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WARM UP A BIT. 00Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SO THE FORECAST IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE FLOW TRANSITION FROM THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW TO THE NEW TROF THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. JORDAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 73 57 78 59 77 / 70 70 40 40 40 TULIA 74 60 77 60 78 / 70 70 40 50 40 PLAINVIEW 74 61 77 61 79 / 70 70 40 50 40 LEVELLAND 74 61 79 60 80 / 70 70 40 40 40 LUBBOCK 76 63 79 64 81 / 70 70 40 50 40 DENVER CITY 77 60 82 59 80 / 70 70 40 40 40 BROWNFIELD 75 60 79 59 80 / 70 70 40 40 40 CHILDRESS 80 64 80 65 82 / 50 70 50 60 50 SPUR 78 63 78 63 79 / 50 70 50 50 50 ASPERMONT 82 65 82 66 82 / 50 70 50 60 50 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93/14  FXUS64 KLUB 160911 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 411 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 .SHORT TERM... CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL RETURN TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A THICK MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WAS STREAMING OVER THE AREA WHICH ORIGINATED FROM WHAT WAS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA. THIS WILL SEND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES WHICH PLACES US AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT COMPLETELY SATURATED WITH NCAPES WILL WELL ABOVE 0.1 THIS AFTERNOON. ANYTHING LESS THAN 0.1 IS INDICATIVE OF A THIN CAPE/SATURATED PROFILE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE AROUND 2.0-2.5 KM WHICH IS RESPECTABLE FOR JUNE ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH THETA-E AIR WILL EXIST EAST OF A DRYLINE AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...WE WILL SEE STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH VALUES PROGGED ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG. IT WOULD BE QUITE A SHAME TO WASTE ALL OF THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE JUST ABOUT NEUTRAL TODAY WHICH IS A LARGE IMPROVEMENT OVER YESTERDAYS 3-4DM RISES. MODELS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY BE LACKING AGAIN. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BY THIS EVENING. IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE LOW WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT AND MORE TIME FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. INITIALLY A STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE VERY SLOW TO THE EAST OR EVEN VERY CLOSE TO BACKBUILDING STORMS. STORM MOTION WOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH LESS OF A BACKBUILDING THREAT. THE LLJ WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM... DEEP MOIST SUBTROPICAL PLUME APPEARS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT BENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY BUT THEN SPREADING BACK EAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE PLUME COUPLES WITH UPPER TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WILL REMAIN A BIT SUPPRESSED FROM SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD RECOVER THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE ROCKIES WAVE SUPPORTING LESS SHOWER CONSIDERATION...ALTHOUGH LATEST LONG-TERM TRENDS DO NOT APPEAR TO OVERLY BUILD THE RIDGE AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHTS SOLUTIONS WERE. NOT ONLY THAT...WE ARE SEEING AT LEAST MARGINAL AGREEMENT ON PERHAPS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE CARVING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS LONG AS NORTHERN TROUGH DOESNT LINGER TOO LONG ACROSS NORTHERN TIER. THERE MAY BE GROWING CHANCES THEREFORE FOR RENEWED MOISTURE PLUME BY THE WEEKEND...AND WE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER THUNDER CHANCES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 91 65 88 62 86 / 20 10 20 20 30 TULIA 91 67 88 64 84 / 30 20 20 20 30 PLAINVIEW 91 67 88 65 84 / 40 30 20 20 30 LEVELLAND 92 68 91 64 87 / 40 30 20 20 30 LUBBOCK 93 70 90 66 87 / 40 30 20 20 30 DENVER CITY 94 69 90 63 90 / 40 30 20 20 30 BROWNFIELD 93 69 90 63 87 / 40 30 20 20 30 CHILDRESS 95 73 93 71 90 / 30 30 20 20 30 SPUR 94 72 91 68 88 / 40 30 20 20 30 ASPERMONT 96 74 95 71 92 / 20 20 20 20 30 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01/05  FXUS64 KLUB 290912 CCA AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 412 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SHORT TERM... LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN OVER THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. A NEW SHORT WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR LAST HURRAH OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR A WHILE. THIS INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING DRIVER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES LINGERING AROUND THE REGION FROM CONVECTION YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT AS USUAL...NWP HAS DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SUCH SMALL SCALE FEATURES. THIS MAKES THE AFTERNOON FORECAST INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT. WE WILL STILL SEE MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF RICH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ALL THE WAY BACK IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THE LACK OF DEFINITIVE FORCING IN THE AFTERNOON DOES NOT LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO THE POP FORECAST. THE STRONGER AFOREMENTIONED FORCING INCREASES CONFIDENCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 3.0 KM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. .LONG TERM... A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH BENEATH HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR THUNDER FAVORING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY. DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUD LAYERS. THE BIG NEWS IN THE COMING WEEK WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WORKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND... THEN PARKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RECOVER WITH DECENT NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUING...BUT UPPER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY ADVERSE AT LEAST TO ORGANIZED THUNDER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE TUESDAY SHOULD CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST FIND A WAY TO SPREAD TOWARDS THE TEXAS BORDER. THEN...PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND PERHAPS THUNDER CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WESTERN ZONES TIED TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...IMPROVED CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND RAMPING UP OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW A RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK...PERHAPS BACK TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH SATURATED GROUND...VEGETATIVE GROWTH...AND ELEVATED LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL HEATING ABILITY. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 81 54 70 51 / 30 70 30 10 TULIA 80 58 70 52 / 30 70 20 10 PLAINVIEW 80 58 71 54 / 30 70 30 10 LEVELLAND 83 58 72 55 / 20 70 40 10 LUBBOCK 83 58 72 55 / 20 70 40 10 DENVER CITY 87 60 74 57 / 20 60 50 10 BROWNFIELD 85 60 74 56 / 20 60 50 10 CHILDRESS 84 61 75 57 / 30 70 20 10 SPUR 83 60 75 56 / 20 70 40 10 ASPERMONT 83 63 77 59 / 20 70 50 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01/05  FXUS64 KLUB 210909 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM... THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER. FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM... THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES SATURDAY EVENING. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025- 026-031-032-037-038-043-044. FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042. && $$ 74/01