FXUS64 KLIX 261807 AAA AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1207 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015 .UPDATE... PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE HOURLY FORECAST VALUES...HOWEVER SATELLITE SHOWS THINNING AND BREAKS THAT APPEAR TO BE ACCELERATING. CLOUD DEPTH MAY STILL BE AT LEAST 300 FEET IN SOME AREAS...SO AREAS DOWNWIND OF MARINE/LARGER WATER BODIES MAY BE SLOWER TO SEE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. HAVE INDICATED THIS SOMEWHAT IN THE UPDATED SKY COVER FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO START OFF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. REGARDING THE HIGHS TODAY...AREAS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN MAY RECOVER AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES FROM THE 11 AM VALUES...SO HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH THE UPDATE THAT WAS JUST SENT...HOWEVER THIS IS 3 TO 4 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. 22/TD && .AVIATION... AN MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND VIS SATELLITE. ONE THING SATELLITE DOES SHOW IS CLOUD DECK BEGINNING TO BREAK UP WITH OVC BECOMING MORE SCT IN THE AFTERNOON. A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AREAWIDE WITH MVFR/IFR BACK IN PLACE. MORE CLEARING EXPECTED TOMORROW. MEFFER && .MARINE... ISSUED A /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/ HEADLINE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THESE WINDS BEFORE THAT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ON ELEVATED PLATFORMS. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE/PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING THE 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT...SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH CHANDELEUR SOUND AND BRETON SOUND FROM 9 PM TONIGHT TO 9 AM FRIDAY. 22/TD && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ SOUNDING DISCUSSION... THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS A 15 F INVERSION FROM 020 TO 060 FT. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY NEAR THE SFC THEN BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE JET MAX IS 140 KTS AT 230 MB. PW IS BELOW AVERAGE AT .4 INCHES. THE PROFILE IS ONLY SATURATED IN THE CLOUD LAYER AT ABOUT 020 FT AND IS VERY DRY ABOVE. KRAUTMANN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/ SHORT TERM... LOW PRESSURE AREA AND YESTERDAY'S WEATHER-MAKER WAS RAPIDLY MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING WITH A WAKE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE BUT RE-ENFORCING THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THE 1042MB HIGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA THEN SHUNTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF CONCENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PARISHES AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI ZONES TONIGHT. ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HINDERED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. LONG TERM... A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOME RIDGED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL FAVOR CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE FIRST IMPULSE CO-INCIDES WITH A COLD FRONTAL ZONE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A WARMER BUT WET DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALSO WILL LIKELY BE STORMY WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WHILE NORTHERN BRANCH BUCKLES WITH DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WERE STILL ATTEMPTING TO ABATE IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCES LATER TODAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY THEN VEER TO MODERATE EASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VEERING CONTINUES TO ONSHORE ORIENTATION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF NOT LIKELY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. 24/RR && DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 45 31 48 32 / 0 10 10 10 BTR 48 32 51 34 / 0 10 10 10 ASD 49 33 52 35 / 0 10 0 10 MSY 48 37 51 41 / 0 10 0 10 GPT 50 34 53 36 / 0 10 0 10 PQL 49 33 53 36 / 0 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM. MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM. && $$  FXUS64 KLIX 100924 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 324 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 .SHORT TERM... FOG IS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST HEADACHE. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 300FT IN SEVERAL PLACES BUT HAVE STALLED AT THAT LEVEL. TEMPS ARE THE SAME AT THE SFC AND CLOUD LEVEL SO THERE IS NO REASON THAT THE DECK COULDN'T FALL TO THE SFC. TEMPS HAVE RISEN IN A FEW PLACES AS WELL PREVENTING CEILINGS FROM FALLING ANY FARTHER THAN ABOUT 1K FT. TEMPS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO RISE OR AT LEAST LEVEL OFF AS CLOUD DEPTH THICKENS A BIT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS AT THE BASE. WILL WATCH THIS TOWARD DAYLIGHT. WED WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG SINCE THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND A SHALLOW CEILING OF ABOUT 5OOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME INVERSION FOG WHICH WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK FOR THE DAY WED AND THURSDAY BUT POSSIBLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THU MORNING. THE SFC LOW RAPIDLY MOVES NE INTO EASTERN CANADA CAUSING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT TO STRETCH AND SLOW. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE SLOWING AT ALL AND WILL OVERTAKE THE FRONT ON ITS SOUTHERN END CAUSING A RIDGE BRIDGE. THIS SIMPLY CAUSES THE INVERSION PROVIDED BY THE HIGH TO BRIDGE THE FRONT CUTTING OFF THE SFC INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS THE LINE OF SH/TS STARTS MOVING THROUG OUR AREA WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. BASICALLY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH...SH/TS WILL BEGIN TO DECAY AND WILL ALL BUT DISSIPATED BY THE TIME THE LINE GETS TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF OUR CWA. BUT THE COOL DRY AIR WILL STILL MOVE THROUGH ALONG WITH THE HIGH. .LONG TERM... BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING FOG CHANCES BACK AGAIN ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE SFC LOW FAR SOUTH BY NEXT TUE/WED...THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL TOWARD SEVERE WX. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER ON THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT SOME TERMINALS BUT FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT BY 15Z. 13/MH && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND MODERATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO STRENGTHEN PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. 13/MH && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 57 77 61 / 0 0 10 60 BTR 76 60 80 63 / 0 0 10 60 ASD 74 57 78 66 / 0 0 10 50 MSY 74 62 80 69 / 0 0 10 40 GPT 72 60 76 68 / 0 0 10 30 PQL 72 56 76 67 / 0 0 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$  FXUS64 KLIX 301316 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 816 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 ...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... Light winds and ample boundary layer moisture trapped beneath an inversion that extends to 1000 feet has fostered widespread fog development across much of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning. GOES-R Fog and Low Stratus (FLS) IFR/LIFR probabilities more readily show the extent of the fog compared to the traditional brightness temperature difference. Otherwise, the atmosphere remains stable and dry with a precipitable water value of 0.86 inches. Winds are from the southeast in the low levels and then become from the west- southwest or west above 16000 feet. A peak wind speed of 32 knots was observed at 32000 feet. 12z balloon info: A routine flight ascending for 100 minutes to a height of 19.8 miles above the ground bursting north of Pass Christian 35 miles downrange from the office. Ansorge && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016/ SHORT TERM... The overall weather pattern through Tuesday will be very benign as deep layer ridging continues to dominate the Gulf South. As a result, clear skies and very warm temperatures can be expected. Highs will approach and even exceed record territory in many locations each day. Strong subsidence and a deep layer of drier air in the mid and upper levels will effectively kill most cloud development during the daylight hours. The biggest forecast challenge will be the extent and density of radiation fog that is expected to develop each night. Conditions remain optimal for locally dense fog to form over inland areas of the CWA each night due to the combination of clear skies, strong radiational cooling, and light boundary layer winds. Have issued a dense fog advisory for the early morning hours today, and another round of dense fog could easily develop both tonight and tomorrow night. LONG TERM... By Wednesday, the strong deep layer ridge axis should shift toward the eastern seaboard and Florida resulting in deep layer southerly flow over the area. Boundary layer winds should increase enough that the fog threat should diminish by Wednesday night. However, the probability of some rain developing over the area will increase as moisture deepens aloft and weak positive vorticity advection spreads over the region. Wednesday should see some strato-cumulus begin to form, but enough dry air should remain in the mid-levels to effectively cap off any convective potential. Temperatures should also cool slightly as the strong subsidence associated with the ridge will be significantly reduced. Daytime highs should only climb into the lower to middle 80s instead of the upper 80s. Thursday will be a day of transition as fast moving short wave trough moves through the Midwest and flattens the ridge across the Southeast United States. A weak cold front associated with the trough should slide into North Louisiana and Mississippi by Thursday evening. Conditions look favorable for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across the forecast area, and have placed 20 percent POP in the forecast for Thursday. A secondary surge of energy into the trough over the Great Lakes should allow the trough to rapidly deepen over the Mid-Atlantic and New England states Thursday night and Friday. As this occurs, a strong upper level trough axis and the associated cold front trailing from the parent vort max over New England should sweep across the forecast area. There should be enough moisture convergence along the front to support some isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning as it crosses Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. The strongest dynamics look to remain northeast of the area, so the threat of severe weather looks limited at this time. The front should be well offshore by Friday afternoon, and expect to see another ridge axis over the area by Saturday. A colder and drier airmass is expected to move in for the weekend, and overall temperatures should fall back to more seasonal levels for early November. AVIATION... Once again, fog starting to develop at several terminals. Most sites should experience reduction in vis. Those adjacent to bodies of water should fare a little better. But low ceilings may be the biggest issue at these sites. This same scenario will present once again tonight but may not be as widespread as this morning. MARINE... Winds should slowly ease toward the end of the work week. Caution flags will still be a possibility from time to time as winds will remain close to the 15-20kt range for at least the first half of the week. Winds will ease by Thursday and could even become northerly by Friday. DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 88 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 86 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 85 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 85 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-040-046>050-056>059-065-071-072. GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-080>082. GM...None. && $$  FXUS64 KLIX 310458 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1158 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018 .AVIATION... Starting to see early onset of radiational fog formation that should continue to spread over the region overnight. Marine layer advection likely to limit fog depth to MVFR levels with low level jet maintaining some boundary layer mixing to preclude dense fog formation. After 14Z, cloud bases will likely vary between periods of MVFR to mid-level VFR as air mass continues to destabilize in the pre-frontal environment. Timing of organized convection appears to be near the end of the valid TAF period at KBTR, and after 01/06Z for the remainder of locations. The internationally extended KMSY TAF will indicate prevailing strong convection in the 01/10-12Z period. 24/RR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 81 67 73 / 0 20 90 90 BTR 67 82 69 73 / 0 20 90 90 ASD 67 83 70 76 / 0 20 80 100 MSY 69 83 71 76 / 0 20 90 100 GPT 68 80 71 76 / 0 10 70 90 PQL 66 83 74 78 / 0 10 50 90 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ 24/RR