FXUS63 KJKL 171354

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY

954 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013



.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013



NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HIGH WATER THIS MORNING...WITH FLS AND FFW IN

EFFECT FOR SEVERAL AREAS. UPDATED NDFD AND ZFP TO INCREASE SHOWER

AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST

AREA...AND INCREASE QPF. 



UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013



STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ON A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM

NEAR LOUISVILLE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST TENNESSEE...AND MOVE EAST

INTO OUR AREA. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF

I-75 BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL LIKELY

DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS TO

THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH TIME.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013



A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOWS

FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAVE CERTAINLY MUDDLED THE SURFACE CHART.

WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP...

AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY

TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING

AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END OUR PRECIP CHANCES BY EARLY EVENING. THE

REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE

PLAINS AND THE RESULTING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS DRIES OUT OUR AIRMASS. IN FACT...THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE

BREEZY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.



TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND A

LOT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS UP BEING AND

HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS IN THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY

FLOW WILL THEN INFLUENCE LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE FORECAST TO

RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION DOWN TO THE

MID 50S IN OUR SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS. THURSDAY LOOKS VERY WARM

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES. GFS MOS

GUIDANCE TAKES HTS AND CRW TO 88 DEGREES AND I COULD EASILY SEE

LOCATIONS IN THE BIG SANDY REACH THAT VALUE. MID 80S SHOULD SUFFICE

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...NOT TOO FAR FROM RECORDS (88F AT BOTH JKL

AND LOZ).



.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013



GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSIVE TROF MOVING EAST AT THE START OF

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS...

ENSEMBLES AND LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AGREE ON SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING

ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY

IN THE DAY EXPECT INSTABILITY TO BE LIMITED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY

LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE FOCUS OF THE

FORECAST SHIFTS TO FROST AND FREEZE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. GOOD

MODEL AGREEMENT THAT 8H TEMPERATURES BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE

ANYWHERE FROM -4 TO -6 C. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RISING 8H TEMPERATURES

AFTER THIS....THE COLDEST MORNING MINIMUMS...AT LEAST IN THE

VALLEYS...WILL LIKELY COME SUNDAY MORNING WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL

COOLING FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. ANOTHER

SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA BY

WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER TIMING ON THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO STALL THE FRONTAL

PROGRESSION.



FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN A FREEFALL

TUMBLE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE

MID 60S AND THEN SAT WILL ONLY GET TO THE MID 50S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS

SUNDAY MORNING AS STATED EARLIER TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK WITH

READINGS IN THE MID 30S. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE COULD SEE

PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY.

DAY TIME HIGHS ON SUN WILL SURGE TO THE LOWER 60S...THE UPPER 60S

FOR MON AND THE LOWER 70S BY TUE. THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ONCE

AGAIN COOL THINGS OFF AS THE RAIN MOVES IN AND HOLDS HIGH TEMPS ON

WED TO JUST THE MID 50S.



&&



.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013



THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO EAST KENTUCKY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVY RAIN WHERE

THE STORMS HIT. THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN PRODUCING VIVID CLOUD TO GROUND

LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. THE RESPONSIBLE STALLED

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO NUDGE NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON

RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY.

DRY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL

WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME A CONCERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS

SOUTH WINDS INCREASE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS

REEVALUATE THE NEED TO CARRY THAT IN THE TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE

SURFACE WINDS RESPOND AND GET GUSTY ON THURSDAY.





&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



UPDATE...SBH

SHORT TERM...ABE

LONG TERM...DUSTY

AVIATION...ABE










FXUS63 KJKL 072001

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY

401 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013



.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013



AFTER INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING

CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY

SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND VERY LITTLE THUNDER. CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED

DESTABILIZATION AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CONVECTION TO

DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER THIS EVENING.



HOWEVER THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH

MOVING EAST TONIGHT...AND A LOW LEVEL JET AT 8H IMPINGING ON EASTERN

KY AFTER 06Z. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE

TO TREK ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA

THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON

THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALONG WITH THE SERF ARE POINTING

TOWARDS PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY THURSDAY

MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED THE 99TH

PERCENTILE. BASED ON THIS WILL ADD THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE

THURSDAY FORECAST AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH ALL THIS IN

MIND WILL INCREASE RAIN PROBABILITIES LATE TONIGHT TO LIKELY IN THE

WEST...THEN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY...BEFORE

DECREASING CHANCES AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.



WITH THE FRONT STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE OH VALLEY...THE TREAT OF

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS

LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD

TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT FOR FOR NOW

WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF INCREASING CHANCES AGAIN

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.



HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 TONIGHT AND

AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD IN THE FORECAST ON

THURSDAY...WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013



UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PERIOD

SHOULD BEGIN WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY

EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC.

THERE MAY BE A WAVE OR SERIES OF SFC WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR

WEST AT THAT POINT AS DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION. AT THE

START OF THE PERIOD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS

THE SOUTHERN STATES AND NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

SHOULD BE ROTATING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FROM ONTARIO.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHORTWAVES ROTATING TOWARD THE LOWER OH

VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS...BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. 



THE MODELS GRADUALLY SAG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND

EVENTUALLY INTO THE JKL CWA AND STRING IT OUT MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE

UPPER LOW WORKS TOWARD THE MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. FROM EARLY TO

THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN AGAIN OVER 

EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES

FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE

MARITIMES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT

WEEK IS FOR MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OF

THE AREA...BUT WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN. DISTURBANCES

IN THIS FLOW WILL STILL KEEP A THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE PICTURE

FOR AT LEAST MON AND TUE...ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD IF THE

12Z ECMWF VERIFIES FOR DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY OR TUESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN

DIFFERENCE REMAIN AND THE EXTENDED GRID LOAD OF ISOLATED TO 

SCATTERED POPS WAS REASONABLE. 



PW WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH ABOVE THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE RANGE INTO

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR

ANY CONVECTION TO HAVE DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND THEY COULD PRODUCE

AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING UPPER

LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS

NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.



TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR IF NOT A BIT BELOW

NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A

BIT ABOVE NORMAL.



&&



.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013



SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE

ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE

WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL GO WITH VCTS IN THE

TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE

FOR CEILINGS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO ALL VFR CEILINGS THIS

EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON

THURSDAY AS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE

AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR

CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY IMPROVE

LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.





&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SBH

LONG TERM...JP

AVIATION...SBH










FXUS63 KJKL 140902

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY

502 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014



.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014



THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS POINT AHEAD OF A

BOUNDARY THAT IS STALL LING OUT AND BECOMING RATHER ILL DEFINED FROM

CENTRAL OH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO

RIVER. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES

MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY

AND ADJACENT PARTS OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL

RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND ALSO CENTERED NEAR THE

FL PENINSULA. TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE CENTERED WITHIN THE

TROUGH...ONE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE OTHER TO ITS

EAST OVER QUEBEC. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS

TROUGH...WITH ONE ENTERING THE OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NEAR THE

STALLED BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AS

WELL AS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY REGION. AHEAD OF THE

UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS

TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT

EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS.



TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ON OFF TO THE

NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OR WAVES MOVING

AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES

SHOULD ALSO APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SEND

THE STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATER TODAY AND THIS

EVENING AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WITH SOME

SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FORCING...ROUNDS OF

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE

TO WORK THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS

FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR

SOUTHEASTERN KY. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SPREAD

ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOWS. 



FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AS

WELL AS THE COLD FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OR

HAVE WEAKENED AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND OR EASTERN KY.

PENDING SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE

POSSIBLE. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND WITH RELATIVELY DEEP WARM

CLOUD DEPTH ANTICIPATED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND TWO INCHES PER OR OR

MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED STORMS

COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASH

FLOODING. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO

SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS

MIGHT DEVELOP. EXPECTED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS

SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA POISED TO GET THE

MOST HEATING THIS MORNING.



THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD

FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WORKS

AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DEEPER

MOISTURE BY TONIGHT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN

PARTS OF THE AREA...SO QPF IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE GREATER THAN

AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF

THUNDER WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY DEPARTS THE

REGION AND THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS WORKING

INTO THE AREA AND CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS ON

WED WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE...A BREAK FROM

THE RECENT AROUND 90 TO LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014



THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 

THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF 

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY 

NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS 

TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY 

MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER AND MOVES OUT OF THE 

PLAINS. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH ISOLATED 

SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPARTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY 

INTO VIRGINIA TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE OF 

PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS 

FIRE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. 

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 

STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST 

CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS 

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE 

ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT EVENTUALLY 

FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE REST 

OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN 

THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN 

AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE 

EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS 

TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.



&&



.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014



A PREFONTAL AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EAST

SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. JKL AND SJS AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA 

WILL BE MOST AFFECT OVERNIGHT. THE SHRA AND TSRA MAY REACH AS FAR

SOUTH AND LOZ AND SME...AFTER 8Z WITH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS RECEIVING 

ISOLATED PRECIP AT MOST. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN SHOULD EXPERIENCE

SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND OR CIGS...MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALIZED

IFR...WITH IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED AROUND OR AFTER

THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT PRECLUDES

ANYTHING MORE THAN SHRA AND VCTS WITH SOME MVFR VIS FROM THAT

POINT ON IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.





&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JP

LONG TERM...AR

AVIATION...JP










FXUS63 KJKL 150751

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY

351 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015



.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015



EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS

CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SHORTWAVE

RIDGING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE

RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. IN

BETWEEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES

AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AS IT MOVES AROUND THIS RIDGE.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC

SYSTEM WARM FRONT THAT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA

HAVE BROUGHT INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN TO THE

REGION. THIS HAS MAINLY BEEN REALIZED IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SO

FAR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ATTM COMPARED TO 24 AND 48 HOURS AGO

DUE TO HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND THE CLOUD COVER.



THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVE

EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO

WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEHIND

THE WARM FRONT...PW IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1.1 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE

OR SO. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA

TONIGHT WITH THE REGION IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH

THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE

AREA IN THIS FLOW AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT THROUGH

THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE

OF THESE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FROM LATE

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING

THROUGH THE COLUMN...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND PW IS

PROGGED TO REACH THE 1.4 TO 1.6 OR 1.7 INCH RANGE ON SATURDAY.



SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE

REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. ONCE THE

SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST THE AREA TODAY AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH

TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL

TRIGGERS TODAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS TRENDING UP THROUGH THE DAY.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE HIGHER

TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ANY INITIAL

DEVELOPMENT. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MOIST AND

SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE NAM GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

AND CAPE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS

CAPE OF AT LEAST 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LI OF -2 TO -3C OR SO.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS PROBABLE...WITH

OUTFLOWS FROM INITIAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY BEING THE TRIGGER FOR

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN OTHER LOCATIONS.



A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FROM MID

TO LATE EVENING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE RIDGE

AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE

SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE

TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CAPE OF ABOUT

1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ON SATURDAY WITH THIS GENERALLY BEING

OF THE TALL SKINNY CAPE VARIETY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING

THROUGH THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY AT 60F OR

HIGHER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN ON

FRIDAY. THE PW WILL ALSO BE QUITE HIGH FOR MID MAY...AND WARM

CLOUD DEPTHS MAY ALSO APPROACH 10KFT OR MORE. WHAT CONVECTION THAT

DOES DEVELOP ON SATURDAY MAY BE RATHER EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS

WITH QUITE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN RATES. THE STORM MOTIONS ARE PROGGED

TO BE NEARLY 20KTS...SO A LOCATION MAY NEED TO RECEIVE MULTIPLE

STORMS BEFORE HYDRO PROBLEMS MIGHT BEGIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE

BEEN DRY SO INITIAL STORMS MAY SERVE TO PRIME A LOCATION. ANY

LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE THREAT FOR

AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015



THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.



&&



.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015



VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE

PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SWRLY...ALLOWING FOR AN

A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM TOP DOWN. CIGS THROUGH THE

12Z TO 15Z PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 8 TO 12KFT OR HIGHER. A FEW LIGHT

SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD FALL FROM THIS. HOWEVER...CU SHOULD

DEVELOP FROM 15Z ON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS REMAINS LOW...

AND WE HAVE OPTED TO JUST USE VCSH FROM 17Z ON.





&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JP

LONG TERM...DJ

AVIATION...JP




FXUS63 KJKL 080722

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY

322 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015



.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015



EARLY THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF RIDGING WAS CENTERED NORTH OF

HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RIC0 WITH A BROAD WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW

CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE CENTERED

OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER RIDGE IS CENTERED

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING

THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD

TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ROCKIES. THIS PUTS THE

REGION UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THOUGH WITHIN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN

THE TWO CENTERS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND TO

OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRECEDING

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEARING THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGION

WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ANOTHER WAVY

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES

INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO

THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO

VALLEY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.



THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL

WORK SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE JAMES BAY REGION.

MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORKING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD

THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEYS WILL LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS

THE MS VALLEY INITIALLY AND THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION AS THIS

TROUGH TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL

LOW/WEAKNESS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE END OF THE

PERIOD...A RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO

NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ANOTHER RIDGE HAVING RETROGRADED FURTHER WEST

TO BE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WORKING EAST WILL

PUSH THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SHORTWAVE IN

THE FLOW WILL MOVED INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY

REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RIDGING CENTERED TO THE

SOUTHEAST AND WAVES ALONG THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO IT ONLY MOVING

SLOWLY EAST. 



FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER

SUNRISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING IN GENERAL. FOLLOWING THE

RECENT DRY PERIOD IN MOST PLACES...HAVE OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR

TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH SOME MOISTURE WORKING NORTH

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PW INITIALLY NEAR 1.25 INCHES

TODAY...SHOULD REACH THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION...MORE LIKELY SHOWERS IF ANYTHING WILL

AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDER SOUTH OF THE

RIDGE AXIS AND WHERE SSEO AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER.

OTHERWISE...AS MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME

WARM AIR ADVECTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT

LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE

OF RAIN IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD

FRONT APPROACHES. STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER SLOW

MOVING...WITH LESS THAN 15KT OF STEERING FLOW...FREEZING LEVELS

OVER 13KFT...SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND WITH

PW EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...SOME STORMS COULD BE

EFFICIENT RAINERS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015



THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.



&&



.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015



WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DOMINATING...FOG HAS AGAIN

FORMED IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND HAS BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE

RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR WHERE RAIN FELL ON MONDAY. SOME OF THIS IS

LIKELY DENSE OR SHOULD BECOME DENSE RIVER THE LARGER RIVERS AND

LAKES. GENERALLY PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN FOLLOWED AS

FAR AS THE FOG FORECAST. A BIT MORE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED EARLIER AT

LOZ...HOWEVER...WHERE SOME RAIN FELL ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING

IFR TO SME AND LOZ WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE SAME AS RAIN FELL ON 

MON. SJS AND JKL SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE...WHILE SOME FOG FROM THE

LIKING RIVER VALLEY MIGHT BRIEFLY LIFT INTO SYM AROUND 10Z. ALL

THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY THE 13Z TO 14Z WINDOW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS

GENERALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME FEW TO SCT

COVERAGE OF CU BETWEEN 4 AND 6KFT AGL IS ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF SME AND LOZ. WINDS WILL

REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JP

LONG TERM...DJ

AVIATION...JP




FXUS63 KJKL 230550

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY

150 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016



.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016



LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD

THE COMMONWEALTH. SEVERAL BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY...SUGGESTING A NON-UNIFORM PATTERN TO THE CLOUD COVER. IF

SKIES CAN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A MAJORITY OF TONIGHT/EARLY

SATURDAY...MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN FOG THICKNESS AND COVERAGE AND

NEED TO BEEF UP WORDING IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...PATCHY FOG

REMAINS IN PLAY PENDING EVOLUTION OF INCOMING STRATUS.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016



CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY POSE AN INTERESTING

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS

FOR THE NIGHT AS ALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXITED AND WHILE SOME

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL PASSING THROUGH TO THE NORTH...NO

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE SECOND ISSUE IS CONCERNING THE LOW

LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE CURRENT TIME...THIS IS

SLOW TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE CONCERN IS THAT IF THERE

ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THE RAINFALL FROM

EARLIER TODAY...THE FOG WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AND EVEN DENSE

IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE ZFP BUT THIS

MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT SET UP

TONIGHT. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT AND THE HWO WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE

THUNDER.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016



LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THREE SEPARATE LINES/AREAS OF

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING

THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS PRODUCED PEA AND NICKEL SIZE

HAIL. THE SECOND LINE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF

THE FORECAST AREA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

FINALLY...THE THIRD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY/SOUTHWEST OH

ATTM. THESE THREE ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO

MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS SHOULD WANE A BIT AFTER SUNSET.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL

BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORM.



RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR EAST BY 06Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS

INTO WEST VIRGINIA. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT

THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AND BRING A

RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. 



TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH

LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR

THE 70 DEGREE MARK.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016



DRY WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT

LAKES AND OH VALLEY. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW

MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES FROM

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT

SOUTH INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE TUESDAY

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN

WELL TO OUR WEST NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS

BEING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE

TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. 



&&



.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016



MAIN ISSUE THIS CYCLE WILL BE LOW STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE

OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL BREAKS IN THIS...SUGGESTING NOT

EVERYONE WILL SEE PERSISTENT LOWERING CEILINGS. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK

LIKE A DECENT BET FOR ALL SITES AT SOME POINT. FOG AND REDUCED

VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN LIEU OF LOWERING CEILINGS

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL

CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER SLOWLY DECREASES

THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO EASTERN

KENTUCKY.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



UPDATE...GUSEMAN

SHORT TERM...JVM

LONG TERM...SBH

AVIATION...GUSEMAN