FXUS62 KJAX 172338 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 738 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .UPDATE...Large area of showers/t-storms this afternoon gradually winding down. Some late afternoon partial heating in our western- most counties westward allowing a few showers to redevelop. This may continue a few more hours in our wrn/nrn counties...and will maintain low POP there...but believe HRRR model showing another round of widespread showers moving over the area later this evening is erroneous. Latest guidance suggests there may be some delay during morning before showers/t-storms develop and work across forecast area. Have adjusted hourly POP/weather grids to reflect this. Nevertheless expect another active t-storm afternoon with upper trough over the area. With slight cooling aloft and slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates...strong storms with hail and strong downburst winds are anticipated. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions expected. Included some MVFR fog KVQQ/KGNV...possible where significant rainfall occurred...but SREF shows only very low MVFR/IFR probabilities. Maintained 30 PROB group TSRA in TAFs for tomorrow afternoon...likely to be replaced with TEMPO group in later TAF issuances. Winds generally light...but will be strong and gusty in any TSRA that form. && .MARINE...Surface ridge will remain south of the area through the week with a light southwesterly flow becoming southeasterly each afternoon and evening due to the Atlantic sea breeze. Seas will generally remain in the 2 to 4 foot range with winds and seas below Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria. Rip Currents: Lows risk through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 90 73 93 / 20 60 20 30 SSI 74 87 78 89 / 10 50 20 30 JAX 73 91 76 92 / 10 60 20 40 SGJ 74 88 75 89 / 20 50 20 40 GNV 72 91 73 92 / 20 60 20 60 OCF 73 90 74 92 / 20 60 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Wolf/Nelson/McGinnis  FXUS62 KJAX 170801 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 301 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 ...WARMING TREND WITH A LOW CHANCE OF INLAND SHOWERS... .NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight... Synopsis...Moderating temperatures back to above climo values with increasing moisture across the area bringing more cloud cover, a low chance of inland showers, and late night fog tonight. Mean layer ridging will be in the control of the area with a mean trough upstream over the western tier of the country. This broad synoptic pattern will keep deepest moisture and forcing WNW of the region and bring a warming trend under the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure over the Carolina Atlantic coast early this morning will shift ESE through tonight centering offshore of the Fl Atlantic coast with a ridge axis extending across central Florida by 12Z Monday morning. As the ridge swings southward, a warm front will lift northward from south Florida this morning to north of the Altamaha River basin this afternoon. Shallow moisture pooling and lift along the warm front could spark a few inland showers generally west of the Highway 301 corridor this afternoon. Dry conditions expected toward the Atlantic coast and southward toward Palatka and Ocala where subsidence will be stronger near the low level ridge axis as it builds across central Florida. Surface winds will veer from ENE this morning to the SE through the afternoon, becoming southerly tonight which will not only warm temperatures but also increase low level moisture. Abundant cloud cover will blanket much of SE GA near the lingering front and over the top of the upper level ridge tonight where a low chance of a shower will be possible generally from Douglas toward Jesup northward, while less high clouds and stronger low level subsidence over NE FL tonight favors fog potential. Included patchy fog for SE GA with areas of fog/patchy dense mentioned for NE FL south of I-10 corridor. After a chilly morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s across parts of SE GA to low/mid 40s NE FL, temperatures will moderate above climo values with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s as low level winds swing around the SE through the day and upper ridge persists aloft. Tonight, mild minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are expected, with fog expected across much of the area. .SHORT TERM /Monday and Tuesday/... Mild conditions will prevail with temperatures well above normal for most of the area, despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Light southerly winds will prevail as high pressure dominates the area. A very strong upper high will be over Cuba with ridging stretching northward across our region. A quasi-stationary warm front will be positioned just northwest of our area and this boundary will be the primary focus for the best chance of rainfall which should remain west and northwest of our area on Monday. Nevertheless, an increase in deep layer moisture in association with an upper shortwave trough embedded in the fast moving flow around the northwest periphery of the large high aloft over Cuba will support a low chance of a few light to moderate showers north of Interstate 10 on Monday. The best rain chances (40-50%) will be across our northern zones near the Altamaha River basin. Rainfall amounts should be generally light. Conditions will be favorable for an advective fog/stratus layer moving into our western zones Monday night. Have added areas of fog in that area for now. Tuesday should remain primarily dry and very mild with near record temps possible across portions of the area. .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... Ridging will primarily remain the dominant feature with rather mild conditions continuing into next weekend. A low pressure system will track east northeastward from the southern plains Tuesday night and is expected to pass north of our area on Wednesday. The ECMWF continues to be persistent with this solution. This track would keep the more widespread rainfall northwest and north of our area. A weak trailing cold front, however, will move into southeast Georgia and bring a chance for a few showers to our area Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night. The best rain chances with this system (50-60%) will be across our northern zones. Ridging will begin to amplify again over the region in the wake of this system Thursday through Saturday with mild and mainly dry conditions prevailing. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions through 00Z. Mid and high clouds will pass over the area today as winds veer from ENE to SE into the afternoon with speeds 10 kts or less. Tonight (Sun night) conditions become more favorable for restrictions due to both stratus and fog. 00Z SREF model guidance indicating highest potential for restrictions near SGJ with IFR probabilities at about 20%. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will build southeast from offshore of the Carolina Atlantic coast today to offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the local waters late Wednesday with an increase in offshore flow preceding the front with the potential for marginal exercise caution conditions over the outer waters. Winds shift onshore trailing the front Thursday as high pressure builds NE of the waters and a coastal trough develops offshore of the FL Atlantic coast, but surge not expected to meet headline criteria. Rip Currents: Low risk today and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 57 73 60 / 20 20 40 10 SSI 64 57 71 61 / 0 0 20 10 JAX 71 58 79 60 / 0 10 20 0 SGJ 70 59 77 61 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 75 57 80 57 / 10 10 10 0 OCF 76 57 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Enyedi/Shuler/  FXUS62 KJAX 260828 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 325 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2017 .NEAR TERM.../TODAY-TONIGHT/... An elongated sfc high pressure ridge north of the area will continue while slowly lifting northward as flow aloft backs with fast moving disturbances moving east in quasi-zonal flow. Today is more or less a transition day as we go to a more warm/moist advective pattern...and this is evident in the northwest Gulf of Mexico as isentropic ascent occurs pushing clouds northward into the west and central Gulf coast. For Today...northeast low level flow is expected with a gradual increase in low level moisture with skies becoming partly cloudy.... and occasional mostly cloudy for the coastal areas as low level convergence increases as a weak inverted trough develops offshore. Models are in disagreement in the development of a few showers with the trough offshore. But...based on a few runs of the HRRR and model consensus blend...will keep some low POPS (15-20 percent) confined in the coastal waters and along the coast from about Fernandina Beach northward. Residual cool airmass and clouds will keep highs cool still today with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s in southeast GA and mid 60s to around 70 over northeast FL. Tonight...increased moist advection aloft and weak isentropic ascent will bring mostly cloudy skies to most areas except perhaps southeast zones overnight. A few showers will still be possible over parts of the offshore coastal waters with a weak sfc trough which will actually push slowly off to the east-northeast. A few light patches of rain also possible over the northwest zones as well but overall ascent looks weak to produce any moderate rainfall potential. Included some fog with a number of models producing some fog across the srn zones and MOS indicates potential for patchy dense fog over Marion county. Low temps not as cold as this morning with mins in the mid 40s north to lower to mid 50s south. .Short Term.../Wednesday through Friday/... A frontal system will be over the region on Wednesday, with an area of low pressure moving East along the boundary. The front sinks South late Wednesday, with an inverted trough developing over area waters Thursday. A weak wave of low pressure will track East across the region Thursday, with precipitation developing both in response to the trough and the wave. The inverted coastal trough will linger into early Friday, then break down as high pressure builds from the North Friday. Cloud cover will keep temperatures above normal at night this period, despite below normal day time readings. && .Long Term.../Friday night through Monday/... A cool and dry period is expected for Friday night through Sunday. A trough of low pressure is expected to slide through late Saturday into Saturday night. While this boundary is anticipated to be dry, it will help to reinforce the cool airmass. High pressure will build to the North once again on Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move Eastward out of the Gulf Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for rain. Temperatures are expected to be seasonal for this period. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through about 12z with sct-bkn high clouds expected. Onshore low level flow and increased moisture will help develop low clouds around the 12z-18z time frame for the coastal TAFs with a chance of MVFR first starting SGJ, SSI and CRG. However...the chance MVFR cigs not enough to forecast in TAFS so will keep cigs around 3500-5000 ft. Lower MVFR probs expected at GNV. Light northerly winds early today will become northeast after 12z with winds highest for SGJ, CRG, and SSI around 10-12G20kt. && .MARINE...Guidance and coastal obs show winds of 15kt/10-15 kt over the waters for today and seas of 3-5 ft. NWPS is a bit low for the seas and have increased seas slightly over the guidance for today. As a weak coastal trough develops offshore...winds will slowly turn more northerly by this evening and overnight into Wed. Winds expected to increase further Wed-Fri as pressure gradient increases with an SCA likely by Wed night. Lighter winds look probable by late Friday night into Sat as sfc high pressure ridge sinks south. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of Rips likely as winds will be onshore and surf increased gradually. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 58 44 50 39 / 0 20 40 30 SSI 58 49 56 48 / 20 10 30 30 JAX 64 49 61 50 / 10 10 30 40 SGJ 67 54 67 54 / 10 10 20 40 GNV 69 50 68 51 / 0 0 20 30 OCF 71 52 72 54 / 0 0 20 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Shashy/23/  FXUS62 KJAX 272011 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 311 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 ...Widespread Rainfall Event expected Sunday and Sunday Night... .NEAR TERM /Through Sunday/... Rest of this afternoon...SE Flow off the Atlantic and daytime heating has triggered some light showers/sprinkles across coastal SE GA and coastal NE FL that have moved further inland than previously thought. Overall not much measurable precipitation but radar imagery showing widely scattered sprinkles for JAX metro area northward into SE GA for the remainder of the afternoon. E/SE flow has also increased to 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at times with widespread temps into the lower 70s inland NE FL and 60s along the coast and across SE GA. Tonight...Any remaining isolated diurnal showers should fade over inland areas and generally remain along the coast and coastal waters. The low level SE Flow is expected to weaken enough to less than 5 mph and this should be enough along with nocturnal cooling to allow for low level stratus development across all of SE GA and most of NE FL from the I-10 corridor northward. Dewpoints will continue to increase into the upper 50s/near 60 and will support some patchy sea fog formation from JAX northward through SSI as it overruns coastal water temps in the lower/middle 50s. Not a great set-up for widespread dense fog but latest HRRR/SREF model runs are suggesting at least some fog formation along the coast from JAX northward and over inland areas from I-10 northward through SE GA and have upped wording in the forecast to "Areas of Fog" late tonight/early Sunday. Otherwise expect mild night with lows only falling into the mid/upper 50s. Rainfall ahead of approaching weather system should hold off for the most part to the west of the region before sunrise with a slight increase in rainfall chances across inland SE GA towards morning. Sunday...Forecast still on track for widespread rainfall to develop through the day from West to East across the region as strong mid level shortwave pushes through the NE GOMEX along with a developing low pressure center that will be close to the Big Bend region/I-75 corridor of NE FL by late in the day. Overall expect showers to increase in coverage from inland SE GA during the morning hours and push across the rest of SE GA/NE FL by the afternoon. Enough surface heating and warm air advection into NE FL will push temps into the lower/middle 70s and expect at least isolated storms with locally heavy rainfall possible across NE FL mainly south of the I-10 corridor, a few strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall. Earlier onset to precip across SE GA will hold max temps in the 60s there. .SHORT TERM /Sunday night through Tuesday night/... A low pressure system will lift out of the Gulf of Mexico and move across northeast Florida Sunday night. Very impressive upward forcing with this system, given strong surface convergence along the track of the surface low, coupled with very strong energy and diffluence aloft. The strongest forcing appears to move in early Sunday evening. Models soundings show deep saturated profiles in our area, thus rainfall will become heavy at times. Embedded thunderstorms (mostly elevated) are expected across northeast Florida where the NAM shows MUCAPE values around 500 J/KG with effective shear values of 40 to 50 knots. Strong gusty winds will be possible in the strongest storms, but the main concern will be the potential for flooding in heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with the highest amounts over northeast Florida. The NAM12 actually shows a pocket of 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall across portions of northeast Florida, and this does not seem that unrealistic. That amount of rainfall this time of year would more than likely lead to flooding, especially if it falls across urban areas. If tonight's model runs still show this potential, we may need to hoist a Flood Watch for northeast Florida. Rain will linger into Monday before wrapping up for good by the afternoon hours as much drier air invades from the northwest. The cooler air doesn't really start to move in until later in the day, thus resulting in temperatures a little above normal on Monday. Cold air advection Monday night will result in a 24 hour temperature change of about 20 degrees. No freeze or frost concerns expected Monday night. Tuesday will feature sunny but chilly conditions, and gusty north winds will make it feel even colder. Strong high pressure northwest of the area will shift to the Carolinas Tuesday night and this will set the stage for inland freezes across much of our forecast area on Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... Below normal temps will continue in to Wednesday before quickly moderating on Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves east out into the Atlantic with winds veering towards the south ahead of the next cold front. This front is expected to push through with increasing chances for rain in the Friday night/Saturday timeframe. The timing on this though could change. && .AVIATION... For now this afternoon has still featured VFR conds at all TAF sites despite some isolated light showers/sprinkles at times. Expect better chances of MVFR CIGS after 00z and possible IFR CIGS/VSBYS after 06-09z time frame as onshore winds weaken and allow for lower stratus deck to develop along with some patchy sea fog that may move inland close to SSI at times. Latest SREF model has pushed IFR probs to 50% or higher from JAX metro TAFs northward through SSI and have trended latest 18z TAF package slightly more pessimistic with most impacts from the 06-15z time frame. && .MARINE... Small craft advisories will continue over the offshore waters in the SE flow with elevated seas through the weekend and will likely continue early next week as strong North Flow develops on the back side of departing low pressure system. The nearshore waters will continue at least SCEC levels of winds/seas in the SE Flow this weekend and will be close to SCA levels at times including the North winds developing on Monday behind the low pressure system. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk continues in the onshore flow. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals through Monday with locally higher amounts will bring rises to local river basins across the region but River Flooding not expected at this time but will be possible if locally heavier bands develop across any of the NE FL basins which are still running slightly above normal levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 67 56 65 / 20 100 80 10 SSI 54 64 57 64 / 30 100 90 20 JAX 56 73 60 66 / 20 100 100 30 SGJ 58 72 60 66 / 20 90 100 40 GNV 57 74 61 68 / 10 90 100 20 OCF 58 77 62 69 / 10 90 100 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM. && $$ Hess/Shuler/