FXUS63 KIWX 101950 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 350 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1203 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL VISIT BRIEFLY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER A GOOD POSSIBILITY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 ROBUST UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODEST DIURNAL HEATING FROM PERIODIC BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL COLD POOL AND PINWHEELING VORTICITY LOBE ARE GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE. THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DESPITE DECENT SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES HAVE REMAINED RATHER LOW AND HAVE ONLY SEEN A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE AREA. RAPID MIDLEVEL DRYING AND SATURATED SOILS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED IN IOWA THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW A GREAT SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WILL GO WITH JUST PATCHY FOG FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP A FLOOR ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HOVERING AROUND 60F FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. MOS GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY CATCHING UP BUT STILL LOOKS A LITTLE UNDERDONE GIVEN THIS SETUP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH INHERITED MID...AND A FEW UPPER...80S. NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE SOME QPF CLIPPING OUR SOUTHWEST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FIRING UPSTREAM ON DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL BE SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE PERIOD BUT PROFILES LOOK EXTREMELY DRY AND OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN SPURIOUS NATURE OF THESE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVES. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS BROAD CONUS RIDGING WITH 500 MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925/850 MB THETA E SURGE EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE 00Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. A POTENT 500 MB S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE TRACK OF THE S/W AND SFC LOW...ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN OR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH EXPECTED STRONG GRADIENT. CURRENT SPC DAY THREE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT DECENT NW FLOW SETUP. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL MILLER TYPE C SYNOPTIC SETUP. 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A RATHER NORTHERLY SOLUTION...PLACING THE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA...AND TRACKING THE S/W AND SFC LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AND A SFC LOW TRACK NEAR INDIANAPOLIS. 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE...TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A POTENTIAL MCS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH TO NEARLY 13KFT AND LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF 40-50 KTS...POTENTIAL 2-3K J/KG MUCAPE VALUES AND A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...SW 700MB FLOW WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEARING 20C...WOULD DEFINITELY BRING A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS A QUESTION OF TIMING AND WHERE THESE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER THAT WILL DICTATE THE MAIN THREAT FOR OUR AREA. THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS AND SYNOPTIC TIMING WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST WISE...DID NOT AT MUCH DETAIL OR TEMPORAL CHANGE TO POPS GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HOWEVER DID ADD A HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION TO 00Z-12Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WHEN PEAK EFFICIENCY IN RAINFALL PROCESSES IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER S/W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF POPS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED EVEN MORE GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SEASONAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE STEADIER PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND RISING CEILING HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PROCESS THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN AROUND KSBN. THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THIS EVENING SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FISHER SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...NG AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 220834 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 434 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 852 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. PWAT AXIS ADVECTING NORTHWARD JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 10K FEET HAVE LED TO SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE CMI VICINITY. AS WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH 6 AM...WITH SOME LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AS CELLS HAVE REGENERATED NORTH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCHUP WITH STRENGTH OF ILLINOIS SHORTWAVE AND HAVE THUS SLOWED WEST TO EAST POP REDUCTION ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED LATER REFINEMENT. HAVE ALSO MADE A CORRESPONDING SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WHERE IMPACTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO 80...OR POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER IN FAR SOUTHEAST DEPENDING ON LONGEVITY OF RA. LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH CLEARS AREA AND BRIEF COLUMN DRYING ENSUES...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING BACK TO SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE POSITIONED ACROSS MANITOBA CANADA THIS MORNING. BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND SHARP LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE POOLING WILL APPROACH TOWARD 12Z. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE TSRA POPS INCREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH WAA/THETAE ADVECTION FORCING COULD SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME ISOLATED HAIL LATE NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) TO BE SENT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 THE COMBINATION OF BROAD WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND APPROACH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR TS AT KSBN APPEAR TO BE IN THE 07Z-08Z TIMEFRAME...AND IN THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME AT KFWA. HAVE HELD OFF ON TS INCLUSION AT KFWA FOR THE 06Z TAFS WITH MORE FAVORED SHORT WAVE TRACK BOTH SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...BUT WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS OVERNIGHT. INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TODAY GIVING SOME LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTIONS...BUT EXPECTING SOME WEAK SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. BETTER FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF TERMINALS WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 110857 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 457 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUITE HOT...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013 INTENSE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SSEWD THROUGH SASK AS WESTERN STATES REX BLOCK REACHES PINNACLE TO ASSERT SHARPENING OF UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH F36. AMPLE SURFACE INSOLATION TODAY WITH NEARLY AS WARM 1000-850MB THERMAL PROFILES AND LARGE EXTENT OF UPSTREAM MID/UPR 90S SUGGEST MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER BASED ON DIURNAL CURVES LOWER START POINT. MID/LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTS MLCAPE IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...SAVE FOR POSSIBLE LAKE SHADOW AS LOW LEVEL BACKGROUND FLOW CONTS TO VEER TODAY. OPPORTUNITY ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE FOR CONVECTION INITIATION. FURTHERMORE...NAM/SREF/RAP13/WRF DEPICTING SWWD EXTENSION OF MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE ZONE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB/500M WITHIN PREFRONTAL TROFFING THROUGH FAR SRN ONTARIO INTO SERN LWR MI INTO HEART OF CWA BTWN 21-24 UTC TDY. MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES A BIT LAGGED THOUGH GRADUALLY RAMP/SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH 55-60 KT CORE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT 06 UTC THU AS SECONDARY MAXIMA DIGS EWD THROUGH ERN SD/NWRN IA. LACK OF STRONGLY BACKED NEAR SURFACE FLOW LIMITS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ABOUT 30 KTS NORTH/20 KTS SOUTH. EXACT MESOSCALE EVOLUTION A BIT MUDDLED GIVEN LESS THAN FAVORABLE MELD OF SIGNALS...AND ASSERT NO HIGHER THAN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS NECESSARY ATTM. PWAT RIBBON NEAR 2 INCHES INADVOF PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE/WARM CLOUD DEPTH 12-14 KFT INLAND AND WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET ESPECIALLY TONIGHT TO OFFSET MEAN FLOW FOR SLOW MESOBETA ELEMENT MOTION ALL SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BECOME CONCERN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS ANY LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS TRAIN W-E. LACK OF DEEPLY SATURATED LAYER THOUGH OFFSETS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES...AND WL ONLY MAKE MENTION OF ISOLD HEAVY RAFL CONCERN IN HWO ALONG WITH SLIGHT WIND RISK. EVENTUAL UPTICK IN CYCLOGENESIS OF MAIN SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES EWD INTO QUEBEC AFTER 06 UTC AS 5H/12 HR FALLS OF 80-100M REINVIGORATE SURFACE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. WHILE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION AS FRONT SAGS SWD THROUGH CWA UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST THIS ACCELERATION LATE THU NIGHT TO IMPART A DEEPLY/VEERED POST FRONTAL SHIFT ASSERTING A TREMENDOUS AIRMASS EXCHANGE GOING INTO DY2. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013 A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO FULLY EXIT OUR CWA UNTIL AROUND 15Z. THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT INTERESTING THEREAFTER. AS OFTEN HAPPENS IN THESE ABRUPT AIRMASS CHANGES...THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL NOT COME ALL AT ONCE BUT RATHER IN STAGES. THE FIRST ROUND OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL...PUSH OF COLD/DRY AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z NAM12 IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL QPF AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO BE CONCERNED. NOSE OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE DIVING ACROSS OUR CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CARRYING A ROBUST VORT MAX INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AS MIDLEVEL COLD POOL PASSES OVERHEAD WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A SEVERE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. RH FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN ON THE AGGRESSIVE 00Z NAM...ARE VERY DRY WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES. NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF MID/UPPER 60S ALSO SEEM MUCH TOO HIGH AND EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. BEST 700-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS WILL LEAVE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIODS DRY BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COULD ALSO BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE REGION BUT DRY AIRMASS...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...AND SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS MAINTAINING DRY FORECAST FOR OUR CWA. DELAY IN THE BEST CAA WILL ALSO ALLOW EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE STEADILY FALLING TO AROUND 50F THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEEM DOWNRIGHT COLD AFTER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW STRAIGHT FROM THE ARCTIC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AT BEST AND LOWS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 40F BY FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NO BIG WARMUPS IN STORE AS ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013 SLIGHT MOD TO TAFS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA WITH SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING FOR SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF SLOWLY ESEWD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LACK OF DEFINITIVE TIMING OF CONVECTION AND CONCERNS WRT COVERAGE PRECLUDES USE OF MORE DEFINITIVE TEMPO TSRA WITH MORE EXACTING TIMEFRAME. LATER ITERATIONS TO LIKELY INCLUDE AS MESOSCALE OPPORTUNITIES UNFOLD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 211955 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 355 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING US WITH A COOL WEEKEND. SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN AREAS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S. TOMORROW SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 BROKEN STRATOCU DECK IS CONTINUING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE COLDEST PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS WILL ADVECT OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN WESTERN AREAS WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE BCSREF AND BCEURO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THEY WERE BOTH ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HAVE ELECTED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO CONCERN OF SCATTERED CLOUDCOVER PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST DEWPOINTS. STRATOCU DECK ACROSS WISCONSIN HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AND BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW LITTLE DISSIPATION AS IT ADVECTS OUR WAY OVERNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE MAY BE HINTING AT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK. RAP/HRRR/NAM ARE ALL INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH MICHIGAN...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY GIVEN LOWERING/STRENGTHENING INVERSION...DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB...AND SHALLOW FORECAST CLOUD DEPTH. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMES TO AN END. CU RULE VALUES IN THE WEST INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT EVEN THIS WILL COME TO AN END BY MID DAY ONCE WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTN WILL MOVE EAST TO THE WRN GRTLKS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BECOME NRLY STNRY OVER THE GRTLKS MON-TUE AS A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW FORMS OVER SERN CANADA. STRONG SHRTWV MOVG ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE MS VALLEY TUE. COMBINATION OF ENCOUNTER WITH STALLED RIDGE AND SHEARING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE MEAN WRN TROF WILL WEAKEN THE LEAD SHRTWV AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA. SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NGT/WED BUT AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE WITH RATHER WARM MID/UPR LEVELS SO KEPT FCST DRY THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD OVER THE AREA THU-FRI AS THE NEXT STRONG SHRTWV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE TROF BY SATURDAY WITH ECMWF SHEARING SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPR GRTLKS INTO MANITOBA/ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MAINTAIN A STRONGER UPR TROF/SFC CDFNT MOVG EAST INTO THE MID/UPR MS VALLEY. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE GRTLKS OVER THE PAST 24HRS SO PREFER ECMWF FARTHER WEST SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD AND THUS KEPT FCST FOR SAT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT BLO NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE L-M40S AND HIGHS IN THE M-U60S MONDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE USHERING A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT... BKN/OVC IFR STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AT KFWA...BUT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MORE PERSISTENT AT KSBN. ALL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003. MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...BENTLEY LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...BENTLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 221748 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 148 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN TODAY AND REMAIN IN THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 HAVE MADE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR UPDATES AT MIDDAY. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND SPILLING OVER INTO NW INDIANA. RAPID REFRESH ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WHERE UPSTREAM MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WAS REALLY HAVING A IMPACT ON CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER OVER 80 PERCENT OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A 1540Z ACFT SOUNDING FROM GRR SHOWS CLOUD DEPTH QUITE LIMITED. THE LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS SUBSIDENCE APPARENTLY ENOUGH FOR SOME CLEARING NORTH OF BEH. FOR NOW...INCREASED CLOUD MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS...BUT HAVE CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL INLAND THANKS TO A STRONG TRAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A NNW LOW LEVEL WIND. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS AS FAR SOUTH AS MUNCIE AT 07Z AND STILL EXPANDING SOUTHWARD. ONLY MODEL TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS IS THE HRRR WITH RUC13 PLAYING CATCHUP. DELTA T VALUES INTO THE MID TEENS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT +3C AND MID LAKE TEMP RUNNING AROUND 20C. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE STRONG INVERSION SEEMS TO BE KEEPING ANY SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. WILL RELY ON SATELLITE AND HRRR TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WHILE KEEPING PCPN OUT OF FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS HELP ERODE EASTERN FLANK OF CLOUD SHIELD THIS MORNING. ALREADY SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF THIS WITH THINNING AND A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MI AND NE INDIANA AT 08Z. TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN THIRD OF CWA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A LIKELY TREND TOWARD BECOMING CELLULAR WITH MORE BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SIDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS GIVEN EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 SLOW WARMING TREND REMAINS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST WITH MAIN UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW AN ORPHANED TROUGH THAT MIGRATES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUES NGT/WEDS...BUT LIMITED FORCING AND MSTR WITH THE FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AWAY ANY PRECIP. UPPER FLOW WILL RESPOND TO DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID 70S. FORECAST DETAILS FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN MUDDLED AS DEEP TROUGH EJECTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO VARY ON TIMING/STRENGTH/IMPACT TO THE AREA. ALL MED RANGE MODELS LIFT BULK OF THE ENERGY NE INTO THE UPPER PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ENERGY RATHER VARIABLE. GFS/GEFS REMAIN MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBS FOR PRECIP WITH GEFS STILL 60% OR LESS. 12Z RUN OF ECMWF HAD A RATHER DRAMATIC SHIFT WITH ENERGY SHIFTING NORTH AND THEN WAVE DROPPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW. 00Z SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS AND SIMPLY FLATTENS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO PRECIP. CONFIDENCE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...WARRANTING CONTINUED BUCKING OF TRENDS TO ADD POPS BY CR ALLBLEND WHICH IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTIONS...THE WETTEST SOLUTION AS NOTED ABOVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND SPILLING OVER INTO NRN INDIANA WHERE SBN WAS BKN 037. RAPID REFRESH ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WHERE UPSTREAM MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WAS REALLY HAVING A IMPACT ON CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER OVER 80 PERCENT OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A 1540Z ACFT SOUNDING FROM GRR SHOWS CLOUD DEPTH QUITE LIMITED. THE LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS SUBSIDENCE APPARENTLY ENOUGH FOR SOME CLEARING NORTH OF BEH. FOR NOW...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT SBN...BUT KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SKIPPER SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...SKIPPER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 222011 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 411 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TONIGHT WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S BY LATE THIS WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 CHILLY LOWS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER WAS OVER NEARLY ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN. AN EARLY AFTERNOON ACFT SOUNDING INDICATED THE CLOUD DEPTH AT GRR OVER 1000 FEET. SOME CONCERN THAT THE EDGE OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA AND KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW 40 DEGREES. HOWEVER... LATEST NAM/BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS AND VISUAL OBS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CLOUD BANK OVER LOWER MICH. HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND HAS BEEN VERIFYING VERY GOOD...SO CURRENT THINKING IS SOME CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DRIFTING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...FAVORED THE COLDER NAM/MET PER PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE IN THIS PATTERN. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND OF LOWS TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 38 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY AT LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS. KEPT HIGHS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS THE COLD AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 DEEP CUT-OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEK WHILE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY FOLLOWS ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY. UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED EASTWARD BY ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE ERN PAC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SWRN CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN ERN CONUS RIDGING AND BE MAINTAINED ACROSS OUR AREA MID-WEEK. EVEN SO... STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS SFC REFLECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS ANOTHER STRONG TROF DIGS INTO THE SWRN U.S. THU-FRI. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT CANADIAN MARITIMES BLOCKING WILL BREAK DOWN SUFFICIENTLY BY NEXT WEEKEND TO ALLOW A RATHER STRONG SHRTWV TO EJECT FROM THE WRN TROF ACROSS OUR AREA. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS BUT APPEAR CLOSE ENOUGH ATTM TO ADD CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY/MOISTURE RETURN STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR TSTMS SO HELD OFF ADDING MENTION ATTM. AS FOR TEMPS... WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AND LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED. UPR LOW CROSSING THE AREA WED WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE CLOUDINESS... BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL GRADIENT MIXING SHOULD COMPENSATE RESULTING IN SLOW WARMING TREND CONTG. WARMUP WILL CONT THU-SAT AS UPR RIDGE RE-BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRDLY VEERS TO SOUTHERLY. AIRMASS FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE AROUND SUNDAY WILL BE OF PAC ORIGIN SO TEMPS PRBLY ONLY LOWERING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY SPREADING INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND SPILLING OVER INTO NRN INDIANA WHERE SBN WAS BKN 037. RAPID REFRESH ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WHERE UPSTREAM MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WAS REALLY HAVING A IMPACT ON CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER OVER 80 PERCENT OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A 1540Z ACFT SOUNDING FROM GRR SHOWS CLOUD DEPTH QUITE LIMITED. THE LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS SUBSIDENCE APPARENTLY ENOUGH FOR SOME CLEARING NORTH OF BEH. FOR NOW...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT SBN...BUT KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...SKIPPER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 280831 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 431 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES WITH SOME WEAK MARINE LAKE ERIE INFLUENCE POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING IN SOME HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MONITOR OVER NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT IN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A TREND TO DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA/NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TODAY AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NATURE TO FLOW WILL MAKE FOR SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THICKER HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CORN BELT...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES/BETTER MECHANICAL MIXING TODAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A BIT WARMER IN SPOTS INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MID 80S EVEN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST. STRONGEST DPVA WITH AFOREMENTIONED NE/SD SHORT WAVE SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED IN NAM/GFS 500-300 QVEC CONVG PROGS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF DIFFLUENT EASTERN PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE PINCHED OFF FROM RESERVOIR OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AIR ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS STILL SUGGEST A NARROW PWAT AXIS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS APPROX WESTERN HALF OF AREA. DURATION OF PRECIP WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO NARROW LOW LEVEL MOIST TONGUE AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONTAL FORCING...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 11K FT SHOULD MAKE FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF EFFICIENT RAIN RATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE WHOLE WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER ALTHOUGH INSPECTION OF UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS AT KOUN/KFWD SUGGESTS SOME STEEPENING OF 700-600 HPA LAPSE RATES POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WHICH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS SEEM TO GIVE SOME HINT OF ALSO. SOME ISOLD THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MORE LIMITED DIURNAL RANGES WITH LOWS AROUND 60 EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) TO BE SENT SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES/SOUTHEAST CANADA. DISTRIBUTION OF CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OFF LAKE ERIE WILL STILL SUPPORT BEST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF WITH A TEMPO MVFR VSBY INCLUSION AT KFWA. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON SETTING UP STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SFC TROUGH REACHING THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOIST TONGUE SHOULD ADVECT INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT...AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF ON SHRA INCLUSION FOR KSBN WITH THE 06Z TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHORT LIVED EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 280906 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 506 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES WITH SOME WEAK MARINE LAKE ERIE INFLUENCE POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING IN SOME HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MONITOR OVER NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT IN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A TREND TO DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA/NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TODAY AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL REMAIN BACK ACROSS THE MS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NATURE TO FLOW WILL MAKE FOR SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THICKER HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CORN BELT...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES/BETTER MECHANICAL MIXING TODAY...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A BIT WARMER IN SPOTS INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MID 80S EVEN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST. STRONGEST DPVA WITH AFOREMENTIONED NE/SD SHORT WAVE SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED IN NAM/GFS 500-300 QVEC CONVG PROGS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES KICKING OUT OF DIFFLUENT EASTERN PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE PINCHED OFF FROM RESERVOIR OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AIR ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS STILL SUGGEST A NARROW PWAT AXIS OF 1.50-1.80 INCHES WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS APPROX WESTERN HALF OF AREA. DURATION OF PRECIP WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO NARROW LOW LEVEL MOIST TONGUE AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONTAL FORCING...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 11K FT SHOULD MAKE FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF EFFICIENT RAIN RATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE WHOLE WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER ALTHOUGH INSPECTION OF UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS AT KOUN/KFWD SUGGESTS SOME STEEPENING OF 700-600 HPA LAPSE RATES POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WHICH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS SEEM TO GIVE SOME HINT OF ALSO. SOME ISOLD THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MORE LIMITED DIURNAL RANGES WITH LOWS AROUND 60 EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MADE SOME MAINLY MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP BASED ON THE LATEST NCEP AND ECMWF MODELS. A DIRECT THERMAL CIRC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NW TO SE. THE CIRCULATION BREAKS DOWN SOME DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO WITH WANING SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE DAY OVER NW OHIO. HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. ALTHOUGH ALLBLEND WAS SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FAVORED THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. WENT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM/EPS GRAMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF BROAD ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES/SOUTHEAST CANADA. DISTRIBUTION OF CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OFF LAKE ERIE WILL STILL SUPPORT BEST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF WITH A TEMPO MVFR VSBY INCLUSION AT KFWA. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON SETTING UP STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SFC TROUGH REACHING THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOIST TONGUE SHOULD ADVECT INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT...AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF ON SHRA INCLUSION FOR KSBN WITH THE 06Z TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE 12Z TAFS. VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHORT LIVED EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 052016 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 416 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AGAIN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR APPROXIMATELY EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS HAVE FORMED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE DAY HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE AREA. NONETHELESS...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS HAVE ALLOWED FOR 100 HPA ML CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOMEWHAT ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...BUT A 50 KNOT 500 HPA SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHT BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE UPPER LEVEL VORTS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS...HAVE NOT MADE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS POPS WITH A WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION OF LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING. WITH SOME UPSWING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK...SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS IN THE FORM OF SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS IN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND ISOLATED. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE 00Z- 01Z TIMEFRAME AS WEAK SBCIN LIKELY DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. SOME LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONGER UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT TO LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. THIS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO HELP TO FOCUS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT AXIS OF +1.75 INCHES ACROSS APPROXIMATELY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. WEAKER CAPE PROFILES AND LARGE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD AID IN HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIP RATES ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...AND LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS APPROXIMATELY EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO HAVE ALSO RECEIVED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE FACTORS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST OHIO FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS IN DPROG/DT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE OF A SLIGHTLY QUICKER INGEST/PHASING OF MD MS VALLEY UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH NORTHERN LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN TYPICAL MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THESE PHASING PROCESSES AND THE PRESENCE OF SUCH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OCCLUDED SYSTEM...HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEST TO EAST POP PROGRESSION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES. KINEMATIC PROFILES ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH A GREATER SEVERE RISK POSSIBLE IF A SLOWER SOLUTION AND MORE BACKED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE VERIFIES. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD ARE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS REVERSED ITS EARLY TREND IN LIEU OF A SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLUTION. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ECMWF...CANADIAN GEM AND NAM HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN THE GENERAL BELOW AVERAGE MODEL HANDLING OF CUT OFF LOWS AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...HAVE DECLINED TO MAKE LARGE CHANGES IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT INSTEAD HAVE MADE SMALL STEPS TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING OVERNIGHT MONDAY. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...MINIMUM CAPES AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ALL SUPPORT GREAT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT CONDITIONS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A POCKET OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF 100 HPA MLCAPES ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL AID IN EXPANSION OF SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING HOURS. DIURNAL MIXING HAS IMPROVED THE IFR CIGS TO MVFR AT KSBN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH TREND BACK TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE EVENING/HOUR NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE 04Z-08Z TIMEFRAME...BUT SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS LARGE SCALE FORCING/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ007-009-018-026-027-033-034. MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ081. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/AGD SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 300810 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 410 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST INTO THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S TODAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 TODAY: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS AS OF 07Z LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A LOWERING BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MAINLY WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER TEMP RISES A BIT HERE. WITH THAT SAID STILL EXPECT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH FLOW ON 300K SFC BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO HEIGHT FIELDS AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. LOWERED POPS BUT COULD NOT PULL COMPLETELY IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH APPROACHING BOUNDARY. TONIGHT: DEEP UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY OPEN EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. RESULTING RAMP UP OF LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AIR MASS WILL BECOME ANOMALOUSLY MOIST FOR LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 60F AND PWATS SURGE TO 1.50 INCHES (99TH PERCENTILE). THIS COUPLED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES RIDING NORTHEAST IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL COMBINE TO ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION (BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT). OTHERWISE...VERY MILD WITH LOWS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN ASSOCIATION WITH 130-140 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID MS RVR VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS EVOLUTION WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ONGOING POSITIVE LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MID LEVEL WAA TO BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 12Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELY LIMIT TS POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL WEAKER EMBEDDED WAVES IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IT STILL APPEARS THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER VORT MAX ROUNDING PARENT UPPER LOW LOW THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPSWING IN MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS MUCH OF WI/NRN IL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION WITH WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY UPPER LEVEL STREAK AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DVG IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING RATES OF SFC LOW LIKELY IN THE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THERMALLY DIRECT FRONTAL CIRCULATION SHOULD LEND TO A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE MAINTAINED CAT POPS ACROSS THE WEST THU AFTERNOON WITH LIKELYS IN THE EAST. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PWATS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WHICH IS AT THE 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON THE ORDER OF 10K FT. THIS SHOULD LEND TO FAIRLY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME DECENT RAINFALL RATES/AMOUNTS. ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIP AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT TS TO MORE EMBEDDED IN NATURE FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL WITH SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING RATES OF 20-24 MB/24 HOURS FROM 18Z THU-18Z FRI. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE 22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME IS THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN. SOME DIFFERENTIAL CAA SHOULD SOMEWHAT STEEPEN LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG. DESPITE SHALLOW NATURE OF CONVECTION WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...CONCERN IS STILL IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SOME WIND POTENTIAL WITH NARROW LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE GIVEN EXCESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NORMAL TO THIS LINE SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WHICH LENDS SOME CONCERN FOR MESOVORTICES ALSO AIDING TO MIX DOWN SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IF THIS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE MATERIALIZES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. OTHER POSSIBLE THING TO WATCH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WIND SPEEDS IN THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. DEPENDING ON EXACT MAGNITUDE/LOCATION OF CYCLOGENESIS...INTENSE SFC PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH AND STRONG GRADIENT COULD LEND TO SOME SUBSTANTIAL SOUTH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY COOL BUT BREEZY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME LOW CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO FLOW WILL LIMIT DEPTH OF INSTABILITY FRIDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING REINFORCING LOW LEVEL CAA AND BETTER LAKE EFFECT RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY...SATURDAY COULD SHAPE UP AS A DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW PEA SIZED HAIL PRODUCERS AS THIS CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK INTO MID/UPPER 50S TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING TO LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 01-03Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND HELPS ADVECT MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL LONG TERM...MARSILI AVIATION...STEINWEDEL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 250959 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 459 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 456 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER...THE BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS ROUTE 30...HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 446 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 STRONG LEAD SHORT WAVE DIVING THROUGH NRN MN THIS AM IN NWRLY SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING THE STAGE FOR SUCCINCT/STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE ACRS FAR NERN ALBERTA TO RECARVE DEEP WRN GRTLKS TROF THAT BECOMES WELL PHASED LONGITUDINALLY BY F48 AS NM VORTEX KICKS EWD. LEAD WAVE TO DRIVE CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF REGION INTO ANTECEDENT MOISTURE VOID. LEADING EDGE EROSION DESPITE OTHERWISE MARKED I285-290K ISENT UPGLIDE ASSURED GIVEN CURRENT SINGLE DIGIT SFC DPS WITH REGIONAL PWAT NEAR 10TH PERCENTILE/LT 0.1 INCHES ABOVE RECORD MINS. PREFERENCE TOWARD NAM IN HANDLING OF TOP/DOWN SATURATION AND IMPART DELAYED ONSET/TEMPORAL SHIFT OF HIEST ACRS POPS FAR NRN CWA IN 21-00 UTC TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH GLANCING BLOW OF ASCENT ASSOCD WITH STRONG MID LVL FGEN/SRN PERIPHERY OF SIG 50-60M/12HR 5H FALLS. SAVE FOR THE HIR AREAS OF POPS WILL ACCENTUATE THE LIGHT ASPECT OF EVENT PER WORDING/QPF/ SNOWFALL/COMBINED CHC FLURRIES WORDING COINCIDENT WITH SLIGHT CHC MSRBL. ONLY MINOR ACCUMS EXPECTED BUT CONCEDE THAT WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES SOME POTNL IMPACT ON ROADWAYS IN FAR NWRN/FAR NRN CWA WITH GROUND ICE FORMATION POSSIBLE ESPCLY ON ELEVATED CONCRETE/BRIDGES BUT NOT EVEN RISING TO LEVEL OF HWO INCLUSION GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND CONTINGENCY ON APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL. STRONG AM SURFACE INVERSION AND OVERLADEN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO GREATLY IMPEDE DIURNAL UPSWING DESPITE MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT AND CONTD TO FAVOR CURRENT FCST TRENDS ON COOL SIDE OF GUID ESPCLY TODAY. SYSTEM EFFECTS PULL NEWD INTO LWR GRTLKS/OHIO OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GIVE SOME MINOR ACCEPTANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT ACRS NRN BERRIEN/CASS COUNTIES PER LK/8H THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS INTO MID TEENS WITH CLOUD DEPTH/NUCLEATION/STRONG IN CLOUD SHEAR TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIVE. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 446 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUE NIGHT-WED AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THIS WEEK REMAIN THE HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD... AN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN UPPER JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL US WILL AID IN CARVING OUT A SHARPENING/DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS INTO THE REGION TUE INTO WED. EXPECTED PHASE WITH AN EJECTING FOUR CORNERS CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH SFC LOW TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT-WED. DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS LOW IN TANDEM WITH NEXT SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SHOULD YIELD A STRONG LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE AND POTENTIAL INTENSE SINGLE BAND INTO OUR FAR NW INDIANA/SW LOWER MI ZONES BY LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SFC TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE CENTRAL/LOWER LAKES DEFINITELY SUGGESTIVE OF A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH PREVAILING FLOW BECOMING PARELLEL TO LONG AXIS OF LAKE. THE FCST PROBLEM AT THIS RANGE IS IN THE DETAILS GIVEN SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WITH DRY AIR ALOFT POTENTIALLY KEEPING ACTIVITY MORE CELLULAR. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES WITH HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HOPEFULLY SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THE SITUATION BY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OUTSIDE OF FAVORED LAKE EFFECT ZONES IS FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MISSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH IN STRONG PV ADVECTION REGIME. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULTING HEIGHT RISES WITHIN FLATTENED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW SFC RIDGING TO BUILD IN WITH DRY WX AND GRADUAL WARMING. THIS MODERATING TREND (TEMPS RECOVERING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS FLOW BACKS WSW IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING BROAD ROCKIES/PLAINS UPPER TROUGHING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG NE PACIFIC JET. THIS FEATURE MAY EVENTUALLY HELP SPIN UP A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 VFR MET CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PD. INCREASED MID LVL MOISTURE LATER TODAY INADVOF CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVG INTO NRN UPPER GREAT LAKES. GLANCING/SRN PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH EROSIVE EFFECTS OF LARGE SUBCLOUD MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP QUITE LIGHT WITH SRN TERMINUS OF PRECIP ALONG ROUTE 6. KSBN ALSO ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RAMPING 2KFT SWRLY JET WITH PRIMARY FOCUS EXTENDING FROM SAGINAW BAY TO THE DELLS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 192113 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 413 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013 THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO DIG NEAR BAJA OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WEAK PERTURBATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL RACE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS BLANKETED THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING A SLOW SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT TO STRATUS DECK IN VICINITY OF NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ALLOW SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT UPSWING IN STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING...WITH RAPID LOWERING OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALSO NOTED ON NAM/GFS 290K SFC FROM 00Z-06Z. FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL POSITIVE LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION TO ALSO BECOMING ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING...WITH PWATS NEAR AN INCH ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. HAVE MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL -RA POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION....CLOUD COVER...AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT VERY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES TONIGHT WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LEAD SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC FORCING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL -RA POPS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE AN INCREASING CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING SHOULD EXIST. PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 0.10 TO 0.35 INCH RANGE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP...AND SNOWMELT BEING LIMITING FACTORS TO HIGHS. SFC REFLECTION TO WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST WITH A VERY TEMPORARY INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. SOME VERY LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF THIS EVENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING BULK OF PRECIP...AND CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A MAJOR IMPACT. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013 MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM IS ON HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO S CA THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT EJECTS FROM SW CONUS INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY SAT. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TRACK OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS ALTHO HAVE WOBBLED A BIT NW TO SE FROM RUN TO RUN. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A TRACK FROM S IL SAT THRU C IN SAT NIGHT INTO N OH BY SUN. THIS DOES NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING OF POPS AND QPF AMTS. SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1"...NEAR TOP OF CLIMO CHARTS FOR DEC. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL OVERSPREAD AREA BY SAT AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU SUN. LATEST THINKING IS STILL THAT HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS SE PORTION OF CWA CLOSER TO LOW TRACK WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP FALLING SAT EVENING INTO SUN AM. AS ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL FORECAST PACKAGES NOW...QPF AMTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND AN 1" NW TO 3+" IN SE. THIS RAIN WILL FURTHER EAT AWAY AT...AND MOST LIKELY ELIMINATE SNOWPACK WHICH STILL HAS 0.5-1 IN OF LIQ IN CORE. GROUND REMAINS FROZEN TO ABOUT 2 IN DEPTH WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN RUNOFF OF SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN HEIGHTENED AND IN COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR S 2/3RD OF CWA...SE OF STARKE CO TO FULTON CO OH LINE...FROM 18Z SAT TO 12Z SUN. SEE FFAIWX FOR MORE DETAILS. USING 72 QPF...MOST RIVERS IN MAUMEE AND WABASH BASIN WILL RISE ABOVE ACTION OR MINOR FLS BY START OF NEXT WEEK. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE. MODELS HINTING AT DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO AREA SUN AM INTO SUN AFTN AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OUT OF AREA AND BEFORE DEFORMATION ZONE ROTATES BACK SE. THIS MAY BRING AN END TO HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING IN THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT IN THIS TIMEFRAME. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM NW...CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS AREA SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVENING. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NW. SOME LES SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN NW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO BLO FREEZING MON INTO XMAS EVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE TEENS. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MON NIGHT INTO XMAS DAY UNTIL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AREA BY WEDS AFTN. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN INTO NIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/AMT OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH BOUNDARY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013 HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF STRATUS/PRECIP WITH THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL SATURATION MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH CONTINUED LIFT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOULD SEE THESE MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KICK OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE -RA COVERAGE THIS EVENING AT KSBN...AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AT KFWA. CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH NO REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE ALSO ADDED LLWS MENTION TONIGHT WITH ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL DEVELOPING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. MI...NONE. OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...CEO AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 202124 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 424 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE 50S IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013 FOG THROUGH THIS EVENING...HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. RAPID SNOWMELT LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY ALONG WITH STAGNANT WIND FLOW IN VICINITY OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION. STARTING TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN VSBYS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM NOSE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF ILLINOIS SURFACE WAVE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 01Z...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY MAY SEE VSBY IMPROVEMENTS BEFORE THE 01Z TIME EXPIRATION. OTHERWISE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS UPPER LEVEL DVG FIELDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING MOST LOCATIONS. BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...MORE DYNAMIC SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO WILL SET UP A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS SAT MORNING...WITH ALL INDICATIONS STILL SUPPORTING THIS FORCING MAXIMIZED ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHEAST THIRD OF FORECAST AREA. AN ITEM OF STILL LOW CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PTYPES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RAIN SHIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTION ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH LENDS CONCERN IN DRIER WET BULBS BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT FZRA. CURRENT THINKING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD FZRA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO MONITOR LOW LEVEL WET BULB TRENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT LOW TRACK AND EXTENT/TIMING OF NORTHERN/STREAM SOUTHERN PHASING THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON RESIDENCE TIME OF SHALLOW COLD LAYER. EXTREME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SETUP ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 50-65 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. PWATS OF 1.25 INCHES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH BUFFER SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 10K FT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. BETTER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT TO ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST THIRD WHERE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A GOOD DEAL OF SNOWPACK HAS MELTED PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE TO RIVER RISE RATES LATE WEEKEND. INITIAL RFC FORECASTS ACCOUNTING FOR THIS EARLIER SNOWMELT DO TAKE SEVERAL SITES ACROSS MAUMEE BASIN INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE...BUT IF HIGHER END OF QPF VERIFIES SEVERAL SITES MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO GOING FLOOD WATCH ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO. BULK OF HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD EXIT AREA AFTER 09Z MONDAY WITH DRY SLOT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013 CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SUNDAY AS THE COLDER AIR DIVES INTO THE REGION. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND WATER FROM SNOWPACK FLOWS THROUGH THE RIVER CHAINS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME ICE FLOWING IN THE RIVERS AND THIS COULD CAUSE SOME JAMMING ISSUES. THE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL RIVERS EXPECTED TO CREST DURING THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE WEEK...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS TO RECOVER BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...AND A LONG FETCH ACROSS THE NRN PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN ALSO FAVORS RAPID MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THIS... EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WOULD INDICATE ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TO DRIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND LIGHT SNOWFALL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013 LIFR CONDS TO CONTINUE AT SBN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH DETERORIATING CONDITIONS TO IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR EXPECTED AT KFWA. WEAK WIND FIELD AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RECENT SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LIFR/IFR VSBYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF WEAK SFC WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE VSBYS...BUT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING PROMOTING MORE RAIN LIFTING BACK INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ004>009- 014-016-017. MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081. OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...LEWIS AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 160711 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 211 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 616 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY... CAUSING LIGHT SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 436 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE TIMING/TRACK AND AMOUNT OF SNOW FROM ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEM RACING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE HOW FAST THE AIRMASS WILL BE ABLE TO SATURATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. FOR THIS PACKAGE...USED MAINLY THE HIGH RES ARW...BUT SCALED BACK MODEL SNOWFALL BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE. ALSO...ADJUSTED TIMING OF SNOW FASTER BASED ON RUN TO RUN TRENDS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THE LATEST MODEL. WRF/ARW WITH THE GARCIA METHOD WITH MIXING RATIOS MAXES ABOUT 2 G/KG AND REASONABLE UPGLIDE FOR ABOUT 6 HRS SUPPORTS ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FCST. OTHERWISE... TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NAM/MET LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COLD...SO TRIED TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS/MAV WITH LOWS AROUND 15 TONIGHT AND HIGHS AROUND FREEZING THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 436 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014 PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE STRONGER CLIPPERS WHICH WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS. MAIN AXIS OF LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SETTLE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD TEMPS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED AS DELTA T VALUES CLIMB TO MID TEENS BUT NAM12 TRENDING MORE WESTERLY WITH FETCH. STILL EXPECT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MICHIGAN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA GIVEN THESE TRAJECTORIES. AMOUNTS REMAIN TRICKY WITH SHORTER FETCH BUT 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME ACROSS MICHIGAN COUNTIES. FLOW BACKS QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN BACKSIDE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH AND MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. CWA LOOKS TO BE IN MIDDLE OF BEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST QPF JUST NORTH OF LATEST EXPECTED TRACK. GEM REMAINS FURTHEST SOUTH BUT ECMWF AND GFS WITH SUPPORT OF LAST FEW HOURS OF NAM12 SUGGEST SFC LOW TO TRACK NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF AREA. TYPICAL CLIPPER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS IN THE 18 TO 1 OR 20 TO 1 RANGE YIELDING EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES. ANY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENT TO TRACK WILL IMPACT HEAVIER SNOW AXIS BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHWEST HALF OF AREA. MODELS STILL TRENDING TOWARD A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPS AND RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OR TWO FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER BEFORE NEXT SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR COMES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE OF WARM UP AND TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT. GENERALLY STAYING WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE BUT DID LOWER TEMPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON 850MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO AROUND -20C. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPS BACK DOWN TO ZERO OR BELOW AGAIN OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BEING SHOWN BUT LOW CHANCES FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT. ALSO WENT WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DELTA T VALUES IN THE LOW 20S ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE BAND WITH THIS EXTREME INSTABILITY AND DEPICTED NORTHERLY FETCH. VERY EARLY FOR DETAILS BUT IF THIS SETUP WERE TO VERIFY WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE A VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SINGLE BAND WOULD OCCUR OVER NW INDIANA WITH TYPE 6 MESOLOW CHARACTERISTICS POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST. CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING OVER NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014 DIFFICULT NR TERM FCST W/APCH OF INTENSE WRAPPED UP CIRC INVOF WRN LK SP. 3HR PRES FALL MAX CNTRD OVR SRN WI IS INTRIGUING AND ADEQUATELY ILLUSTRATES SIGLY WETTER HIGHRES TRENDS SEEN W/00Z AND LATER GUIDANCE AS CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPR SPD MAX POSITIONED THROUGH THE MID MS/WRN OH VALLEY GETS SQUEEZED THIS AFTN AND INTENSIFIES TO 140KTS. THIS PORTENDS A SIG FNTL SCALE RESPONSE OVR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IMPACTING BOTH TERMINALS SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. THUS XPC RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDS TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS TWD MID MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AT KFWA AS SNOW LINGER THERE LONGEST. LTL TO NO IMPROVEMENT LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGS THROUGH THE BASE OF DIGGING LAKES MID LVL TROUGH ALTHOUGH SNOW IS XPCD TO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AFT MID EVENING. SEWD PROGRESSION OF INTENSIFYING ISALLOBARIC COUPLET WILL INDUCE A SIG GRADIENT WIND RESPONSE W/SFC GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS...STRONGEST TWD KFWA BY EARLY AFTN. WILL REACCESS LIFR PROBS W/12Z ISSUANCE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CEO SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...LASHLEY AVIATION...T VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 200149 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 849 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 840 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 BRISK CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT LEADING TO ONLY PATCHY DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN...RURAL AREAS. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 727 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 UPDATE TO EXPRESS GREATER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DETAIL WRT LOW CHC MEASURABLE EVENT LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM SFC FONT ZONE SAGS SD INTO SERN GRTLKS BY DAYBREAK. STRONG LOW LEVEL RADIATION AL COOLING AMID FRESH SNOW COVER TO LIKELY AFFORD SATURATION OF BLYR BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH LEADING EDGE EXPANSION OF STRATUS LYR ANTICIPATED. PERTURBED FLOW LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK SANS FULL ICE INTRODUCTION NECESSITATES MENTION OF NON MISERABLE FZDZ IN ADDITION TO FLURRIES...SAVE FAR SRN CWA WHERE SRN BNDRY OF STRATUS BECOMES INCRSGLY UNCERTAIN...ALONG WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF FNTL ZONE...TO ADD FURTHER CONDITIONALITY TO EVENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ENTERING MINNESOTA...WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SE MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS BELOW 900 MB AND INCREASING LIFT AS FRONT APPROACHES AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. GIVEN SOUNDING TEMPS IN CLOUD LAYER NOT EVEN CLOSE TO -12 C...AGREE WITH PREV SHIFT THAT INCREASING RISK FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. NOT MANY INDICATIONS UPSTREAM OF THIS OCCURRING YET WITH MAINLY SNOWSHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...THINK MENTION OF EITHER FZDZ OR LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS WILL WORK AND LET EVE SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS AS BEST TIME FRAME FOR FREEZING PRECIP WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -8 C. COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. BRUNT OF COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN POPS WILL INCREASE AS STOUT BUT NARROW BAND OF OMEGA AS WELL AS DEEP MSTR ACCOMPANIES THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY 00Z TUES...850 MB TEMPS WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE -14 TO -17 C RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE LONG TERM WHEN CONCERNS SHIFT TO LAKE EFFECT. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING TO LOCALLY AN INCH OF SNOW WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH FOCUS ON LOCATION OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SINGLE BAND EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO PERIOD OF COLD TEMPS AND SNOW CHANCES WITH POLAR EXPRESS TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH 850MB DELTA TS RISING INTO MID TO UPPER 20S AND CRITICAL 700MB DELTA TS APPROACHING 30C. LONG NORTHERLY FETCH EXPECTED WITH ARCTIC HIGH OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE SINGLE BAND FORMING AS JUST ABOUT ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT WITH FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT PROBLEM IS WITH LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE BAND AS THE LATER PERIODS OF OUR HIRES GUIDANCE JUST BEGINNING TO CAPTURE EVENT. THESE MODELS SHOW BAND PLACEMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ANYWHERE FROM EXTREME WESTERN ST. JOSEPH AND LAPORTE COUNTIES TO AS FAR WEST AS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON STRENGTH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THERMAL DIFFERENCES. LOCAL 12KM WRF IS ONE OF THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND IS KICKING OUT NEARLY SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF. THIS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION IN ITS 925MB OMEGA FIELD WHICH IS ALWAYS FOUND IN THESE EXTREME SINGLE BAND EVENTS. DISCUSSION WITH KLOT REVEALED THEIR 8KM LOCAL MODEL GENERATING SIMILAR QPF...THREE QUARTERS...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN PORTER COUNTY INTO WESTERN LAPORTE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OF ALL MODELS REVEAL A DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO 8KFT WITH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PRESENT THROUGH 500MB. LOCAL 12Z WRF MODEL OMEGA FIELDS ALSO IMPRESSIVE WITH 20 MICROBAR/SEC THROUGH 700MB. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS BETWEEN 20 TO 1 AND 30 TO 1 POSSIBLE WITH GREAT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COMBINATION OF ALL THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY YIELD AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SETUP VERY SIMILAR TO PAST OPTIMAL SINGLE BAND EVENTS WHICH HAVE YIELDED SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE VALPO AREA AND EXTREME WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY. THUS ENOUGH SUPPORT HERE TO WARRANT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF EVENT. WHILE ST JOSEPH COUNTY INDIANA AND BERRIEN COUNTY MICHIGAN ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL BE MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE FOR REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD AS COMBINATION OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE SITUATION WELL IN HAND. LONG WAVE TROUGH TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WITH A COUPLE SHORT WAVES BRINGING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. LOWERED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES. STILL FEEL LOWS OF 10 BELOW OR COLDER POSSIBLE IF FULL DECOUPLING AND CLEAR SKIES ARE COINCIDENT. JUST TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY RIGHT NOW WITH LAKE CLOUDS AND WEAK SHORT WAVES TO GO MUCH LOWER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 727 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 STRONG 55-60 KT FLOW ON SECOND GATE PER KIWX VWP ALONG WITH INCSG SFC BASED INVERSION WITH SUNSET TO AFFORD SHARP DECOUPLE WITH CONTD/MORE TRUE WIND SHEAR EVENT NEXT 3-4 HRS. THEREAFTER...CORE OF 2KFT JET SAGS SWD INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH A MORE GRADUALLY VEERED AND WEAKER SFC-2KFT WIND PROFILE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SWD PUSH OF MVFR STRATOCU DECK WITH PSBL LEADING EDGE EXPANSION ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH KEEP MAJORITY OF TIME ABOVE FUELING REQRMNTS...SAVE FOR 08-13 UTC TIMEFRAME AT PEAK OF SATURATION COINCIDENT WITH WEAK FNTL BNDRY SAGGING SWD THROUGH SRN GRTLKS THAT MAY LEAD TO PERTURBED LWR STRATUS DECK WITH LIGHT/TRACE EVENT PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK. CLOUD DEPTH APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LEADING TO UNASSUREDNESS IN 100 PERCENT ICE INTRODUCTION...WITH LIGHT FZDZ/FLURRIES ADDED IN TEMPO GROUP. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR INZ003-004-012. MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...MURPHY SYNOPSIS...FISHER SHORT TERM...FISHER LONG TERM...LASHLEY AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 172052 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 352 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 115 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND DEEPLY STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL CAUSE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH THE SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 SNOWFALL RATES 2-3.5 INCHES/HR IN XTRMLY HVY TSSN ENTERING WRN CWA. CONTD VERY SIMILAR RAP/NAM/PREV BLENDED APPROACH UTILIZED WITH MIDDAY UPDATE. GENERAL CONTD CONSENSUS OF SREF MEAN AND TIGHT PLUME PACK IN ADDITION TO 12 UTC NAM COBB OUTPUT SUPPORTS LATEST EVENT TOTALS IN PRIOR 1233 PM EST WSW UPDATE WITH HIEST GENRLY ALONG NORTH OF TOLL ROAD. THANKFULLY XTRM RATES BRIEF AND WITH TRANSITION TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL FLAKE SIZE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD KEEP MAJORITY OF ACCUMS TO LTE 6 INCHES. SOME CONCERN THOUGH FOR HIR AMOUNTS WITH TROWAL LIFTING ACRS FAR NRN CWA THIS EVENING PRIOR TO LIFTG FARTHER N OF CWA BYND 03 UTC...INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT IT WILL LIE OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF CWA...BEFORE GRDL EWD LIFTOUT. LEADING WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTENSE WITH XTRM MSTR TAP WITH 6-7 G/KG ON I295K SFC SLIDES EWD THROUGH SRN IN THIS EVENING...PROVIDING XTRM MFLUX/UVM ATOP NOSE OF RAMPING SWRLY 850-7H JET AXIS. JETLET OF 65 KTS AT 21 UTC POSITIONED ACRS SRN IN...STRENGTHENS TO 75 KTS MEAN LYR FLOW INTO SRN OH BY 00 UTC. SPECIAL KILX MIDDAY SNDG YIELDS 320 J/KG MUCAPE/LIFTED FM 7H AND WHILE LATEST RAP TREND NOTED DOWNWARD WRT MUCAPE WL CONT WITH PRIOR AREA ADDED AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED FAR ERN AREAS AS WELL IN 22-02 UTC TIMEFRAME GIVEN APPROACH OF STOUT 6-7 C/KM MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PLUME AND SYSTEM DEEPENING. MID LVL CIRC AND TO CLOSE OFF ACRS CHICAGOLAND SHORTLY AND TRACK EWD TO WINDSOR ONT BY 09 UTC TUE...ALSO SUGGESTING HIEST AMOUNTS HERE/JUST NORTH OF CWA...WHERE HIGHLY ELEVATED MAX UVM BEST COLLOCATED WITHIN A SATURATED DGZ. RAPID CRASH OF CLOUD DEPTH IN WAKE OF SYSTEM IN PERTURBED MOIST BLYR STILL SUGGESTIVE OF BRIEF LIGHT FZDZSN POTNL AT BEFORE ENDING. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER INTO TUE AWAITING SHORTWAVE 925MB RIDGING THAT STILL HOLDS JUST WEST FM KGRB INTO NERN IL AT 12 UTC TUE. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 FOCUS CONTINUES ON WARMER TEMPERATURES/ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AND FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATE TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE STARVED OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEADING TO A GENERALLY QUIET PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND COMPARED TO THE AIR OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL FEEL DOWNRIGHT NICE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE START OF THE MELTDOWN OF THE LARGE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S...KEEPING ANY FOG FORMATION AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR A SLOW RELEASE AND NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. PIECE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF EVEN WARMER AIR STARTING LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS GULF OF MEXICO OPENING WIDE TO SEND ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOW ABOVE FREEZING VALUES...HOWEVER REMAINING SNOWPACK MAY POSE A INITIAL CHALLENGE AND THREAT OF BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY ICING THREAT OVER. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. IN ADDITION...LAST FEW FRAMES OF NAM12 AND HINTS ON ECMWF/GFS INDICATE NEGATIVE SHOWWALTER VALUES BEGIN TO NUDGE IN BY LATE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR RETURN AS SFC DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SE HALF. WHILE SOME MODELS HINT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS...INTRODUCED THUNDER WEST LATE AM AND INCREASED TO CHC THUNDER ALL AREAS THURS AFTN. CONTINUED MENTION OF FOG WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AS DWPTS CLIMB ABOVE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE THROUGH THURS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE AFTN INTO EVENING AS COLD FRONT ARRIVES. IN TERMS OF FLOODING THREAT...GREATEST RELEASE WILL OCCUR INTO THURS EVE AND ONLY SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT THURS NGT WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY. IF ADVERTISED DEWPOINTS DO ARRIVE...LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH OF A SNOWPACK LEFT WITH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MELTING. HWO AND ESF HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL THUS FAR SO NO CHANGES PLANNED. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS FURTHER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MSTR...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG LL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 60 KTS PLUS...THREAT FOR STG-SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SPC PLACED IN/OH UNDER DAY 4 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE ON MORNING ISSUANCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON MENTION IN HWO. SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO WRECK HAVOC WITH TEMPS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN INTO SAT REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. MORE SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO -10 C OR LOWER. CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE WITH EACH CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT KEEPING WITH GOING FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NOW AS TIMING/TRACK ISSUES ABOUND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 FOCUS PRIMARILY UPON UPSTREAM/RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM ACRS CNTL IL TO TRACK INTO WRN LK ERIE BY LATE THIS EVENING. ELEVATED CONVECTIVE POTNL NECESSITATES INCLUSION OF TSSN AT KSBN...CHCS TS PSBL AT KFWA...BUT WILL HOLD FOR NOW. STILL SNOWFALL RATES 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR TO BRING PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR MET CONDS ACRS NRN IN. PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AT KSBN...THOUGH FAR NRN REACH OF WARM LYR ALOFT MAY CREATE SOME MIXED SNPL AT KFWA PRIOR TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WITH STRONG DYNAMIC COLUMN COOLING. CLOUD TOPS RAPIDLY LWR/WARM AS SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE THIS EVENING GIVING POTNL FOR SUPERCOOLED FZDZ MIX WITH LIGHT SN. KEPT AOB FUEL ATL INTO AT LEAST 14 UTC TUE PER STRENGTH OF INVERSION...LONGER THAN LATEST MODEL GUID/PRIOR FCSTS WOULD SUGGEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ006>009- 017-018-025>027-032>034. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024. MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ079>081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077- 078. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002- 004-005-015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 080857 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 457 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS TODAY TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TODAY AND REACH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY... WHILE MOST OF NORTHWEST OHIO REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014 WARM FRONT WHICH STALLED OVER NRN INDIANA/NW OH WED AFTN SAGGED SOUTH TONIGHT ENHANCED BY COOL BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE BUT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THIS MORNING AS SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW OVER ERN CO/WRN KS LIFTS NE TO ERN SD. STRATUS ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT CONFINED TO WI ATTM AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION OVER OUR AREA APPEARS DOUBTFUL... BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. JUST PATCHY CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SCT FAIR WX CU AS STRONG CAPPING INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 900-800MB PERSISTS OVER OUR CWA. GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE TOO COOL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND SUSPECT THIS BIAS AGAIN TODAY. STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE M-U80S. A WK SHRTWV AHEAD OF THE DEEP ROCKIES TROF WAS MOVG NE ACROSS ERN TX THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. NOSE OF LLJ EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM MO INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER OUR AREA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO... GOING LIKELY TSTM POPS WEST TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC OR LESS EAST OF I69 STILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LATE TONIGHT. S-SW GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT TEMP DROP WITH MILD LOWS IN THE M60S. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014 THE STRONGLY CAPPED LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD HAVE RELAXED BY FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MORE FREELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. NCEP MODELS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY...SO HAVE RETAINED LIKELY STORM CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE MARGINAL...HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT APPEARS LIMITED...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY IF EARLIER CONVECTION HAS NOT OVERLY STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE CHANCES FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WERE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ECMWF...THE CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ATTEMPTED TO TAKE MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST 2 MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO TRUMP SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. THE CANADIAN GEM IS THE MOST ACTIVE...PRODUCING OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER PER GFS AT FT WAYNE RISES TO 1.7 BY MONDAY EVENING WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH 10K TO 12K FEET. CURRENT THINKING IS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS PLAUSIBLE WITH AT LEAST 2 ROUNDS OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN ACROSS THE BOARD AGREEMENT OF GFS AND CANADIAN 500 MB ANALOGS OF A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014 WARM FRONT WHICH STALLED OVER NRN INDIANA WED AFTN HAS SAGGED BACK SOUTH TONIGHT AIDED BY ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW OFF LWR GRTLKS. MODELS SUGGEST FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW LIFTS NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY. NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED BUT PRBLY WILL NOT PASS THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A LLWS THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR STRATUS/BR DEVELOPMENT ALSO PSBL ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MI TODAY... A WARM/MOIST BUT CAPPED AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN INDIANA RESULTING IN JUST SCT FAIR WX CU. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT THIS EVE WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS. TS ARE PSBL LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS NW INDIANA AS A SHRTWV ACCOMPANIED BY LLJ/MOISTURE SURGE APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE SW... BUT THIS IS BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...JT VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 150809 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 RAIN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY AND COOL TEMPERATURES BY MID MORNING. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AN OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 DESPITE PWAT VALUES NEAR PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS EASTERN CWA SEVERAL FACTORS PROVING DELETERIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT/PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. RELATIVE BREVITY OF MOISTURE PLUME/CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM FOCUS PER DRY SLOT INTRUSION AS SYSTEM OCCLUSAL COMMENCES WITH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MID TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE DECAYS IN DEFERENCE TO ARDENT DIGGING OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE. FURTHERMORE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AOB 10KFT ALONG WITH USUALLY RAPID VARIANCE AND/OR HIGH VELOCITY OF MESOBEATA ELEMENTS COUNTERING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES. WITH BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WELL EAST OF CWA HAVE DROPPED TSRA MENTION THIS MORNING AS FORCED PARCEL ASCENT REMAINING QUITE ELEVATED ATOP STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH BEST DYNAMICS /STRONGEST 925-8H JET STREAK/ LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH CNTL/ERN OH. DIFFICULT NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN CWA WHERE WARM SECTOR PROXIMITY REFLECTED THIS AM. FAVORED MODIFICATION OF 3 HOURLY TEMP CURVE TOWARD HIGHER RES NEAR TERM BLEND TO EXTRACT HIGH/LOW IN NEAR TERM. CYCLONIC 925 MB FLOW WITH THERMAL CORE ACROSS WRN HALF GREAT LAKES FAVORS THICK CLOUD COVER AND SIDE MORE PESSIMISTICALLY THAN NAM/ARW/SREF PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST AND NOTE THAT LATEST RAP BUFKIT TRENDING TOWARDS MORE STUBBORN STRATOCU INTO LATE AFTERNOON. UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE NEAR MN/IA/SD BORDER TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NRN IL OVERNIGHT AND INTO NWRN IN BY DAYBREAK WITH SMALL CHANCE SHRA POPS GIVEN DEEP SURFACE REFLECTION AND CONTD MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... SHEARING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER 5-3H Q-VECTOR PROGS, DECENT LOW LEVEL RESPONSE/CONVERGENCE INTO AT LEAST OUR FAR SOUTHWEST, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN SUPPORTS BUMPING UP POPS A BIT FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO JET SUPPORT/WEAK DEFORMATION WITH SHEARING MID LVL WAVE. OTHERWISE...850 MB TEMPS NEAR/JUST BELOW FREEZING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY (15-20F BELOW NORMAL). CONTINUED TO FAVOR WARMER RAW GUIDANCE OVER MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MINS GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT/CLOUDS. UPPER TROUGH/BROAD CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN INTO ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AND SOME REMNANT SFC MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN (AFTN) SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DEEPER MIXING/MORE INSOLATION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE/CLEARING SKIES. QUIET WX WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXPANDING CENTRAL CONUS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. NEARING THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY MID WEEK AS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED WAVES RIDE OVER A PROGGED 588-590DAM LOWER MS VALLEY 5H RIDGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR KMIE AT 05 UTC TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12 UTC. DRY SLOT ALLOWING RAINFALL RATES TO QUICKLY TAPER. HOWEVER WELL MIXED/MOIST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO FEATURE CIGS BELOW FUEL/ALT REQUIREMENTS AND LIKELY SETTLING INTO IFR RANGE LATER THIS AM. GRADUAL SUBCLOUD EROSION THROUGH THE DAY TO PROVIDE FOR SIG IMPROVEMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MURPHY SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...MURPHY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 250825 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 425 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S BUT IT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014 GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA E AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS OVER THE REGION BUT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY THIN OVERCAST WITH PLENTY OF STARS VISIBLE HERE AT THE OFFICE. SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE SO NOT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. THERMAL PROFILES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800MB AND 825MB. THIS YIELDS POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...CWA. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE BUT MAX TEMPS LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN ABOVE MOS. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WITH ALL AREAS IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE. LOW LEVEL THETA E SURGE APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN THROUGH 12Z WITH INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST LATE SO TRENDING TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY WEST AND REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014 LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE EAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR THE GFS WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO REASONABLY WELL AND HAS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MASS FIELDS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN THIS COMING WEEKEND SHOW VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN WEAK BULK SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN GIVEN CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG...MBE VELOCITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 AND MEAN WARM CLOUD DEPTH GREATER THAN 10K FEET. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED INTO THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT HIGHS LATE THIS WEEK CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN A PRONOUNCED EAST OR NORTHEAST FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014 HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL STRETCHING FROM LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS ENTIRE VALID PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE WITH MIXING...THEN BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 270852 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 452 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 IT WILL BE A WARM AND RATHER HUMID DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO HELP FLATTEN MID LEVEL RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT SAG SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN LATE TODAY AND ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON 00Z RAOBS. MODELS STILL SHOW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES POOLING TODAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BUT DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS TO DEVELOP WITH MIXING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS YIELDS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT AS WE SAW LAST EVENING A FEW MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CAPE AND STORM MERGERS AND THEIR COLLAPSE. HOWEVER...OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE WEATHER BUT HEAVY RAIN REMAINS MORE LIKELY GIVEN WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 12KFT AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION LAST NIGHT WAS VERY PROFICIENT WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES. EXPECT THE SAME TODAY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK BUT NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA LAST EVENING COUPLED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TSRA BY MID DAY. COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY CONTINUING. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH CLOUDS AND LITTLE IN WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND WEAK FRONT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO MOVES SOUTH. TRIED TO BLEND THE GFS WITH THE 12KM NAM WHICH APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REASONABLY WELL. HOWEVER...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN EARLIER STORMS WITH OUTFLOWS...SO KEPT A GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH RAIN GRADIENT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. ALSO...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STORMS WILL HAVE LITTLE RELATIVE MOVEMENT AND A MODERATELY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNT MAY MIRROR REPORTS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THAT INCLUDED AN ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNT OVER 2 INCHES. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A CENTER NEAR 5900 DECAMETERS BUILDS INTO REGION SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 16C. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY BR POSSIBLE TO START THE PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TSRA CHANCES AT TAF SITES WITH NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF MICHIGAN. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY TSRA BUT TOO SMALL OF A CHANCE TO MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 280857 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 457 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014 A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014 MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...FOG WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAKE SOME INLAND PENETRATION JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CONCERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MARINE FOG TO PENETRATE INLAND THIS MORNING WHERE VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW LOWER MICHIGAN/NW INDIANA. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY FOR THIS THREAT...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. SEVERAL WEAK PV ANOMALIES CUT OFF IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS APPEARS TO BE TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS LED TO MAINTENANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER FORCING EXPECTED. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF WEAK AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN FROM ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A STRONGER UPPER PV ANOMALY DROPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY MAY INDUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHICH SOME OF THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE LATCHING ONTO. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LEAD VORT MAX ENTERING NORTHWEST INDIANA AT THIS TIME...MAY ALSO AID IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING COINCIDENT WITH THIS WEAK FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. THE ONLY TWEAK TO MORNING FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO PEAK HEATING AND ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIMITING ORGANIZATION TO MORE OF A PULSE/MUTLICELL MODE...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOLLOWING EXPECTED FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND THUS HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. WEAK STEERING FLOW AND MINIMAL PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OUTFLOWS WITH WATER LOADING OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS...WHICH MAY ACT TO FOCUS A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO OUTFLOW/REGENERATION EFFECTS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS HOVERING AROUND 10K FT ALSO SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES/LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT MAINLY AN ISOLD WIND THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF MORE STABLE AIRMASS SHIFTS FOCUS SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014 A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTH AREAS THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAVOR THE WARM GFS/OPERATIONAL RUN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY. THESE WARM HIGHS ARE FULLY SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS 850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 17C. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR MARGINAL AT THIS TIME GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014 COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN NEAR SFC STABILITY. HOWEVER...A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR WEAK STABILITY FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PARCELS OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK VORTS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH THIS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS ACCELERATED DOWN SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FOG LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS IFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT TO MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ON WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF SCT AFTERNOON STORMS SOUTH OF KFWA. GIVEN LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT...HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 TSRA MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR BOTH KFWA AND KSBN. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 300812 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS WARM FRONT AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOCAL AREA POSITIONED ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. THUS...WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FULL INSOLATION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED YESTERDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKE BREEZE SUPPRESSED TO IMMEDIATE SHORELINE...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME INLAND PENETRATION OF LAKE BREEZE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH MID 70S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MINS TO COOL BACK INTO LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AS ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 00Z RUN OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MSTR WILL ARRIVE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY MON INTO MON NGT WITH DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR NOW WITH LIKELY NE HALF AND HIGH CHC SW. COULD HAVE EXTENDED INTO MON NGT BUT IF FASTER SHORTWAVE TIMING OCCURS...BEST CHANCES COULD BE SHIFTING EAST BY THIS POINT. SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST...WITH AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AND LL FLOW. HOWEVER...OVERALL UPPER DYNAMICS SOMEWHAT LACKING DESPITE ARRIVAL OF SHORT WAVE. MUCH BETTER SCENARIO FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH BETWEEN 10 AND 12 KFT SETUP FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. WILL HOLD WITH PREV POPS FOR THE TIME BEING INTO MON NGT. MODELS AGREEING A HAIR MORE ON COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUES/TUES NGT. GIVEN MODELS ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE EYE TO EYE DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WAS TO LOWER/DROP POPS TUES NGT. WHILE FRONT MAY RESIDE SOUTH AND BEST FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE...HESITANT TO MESS WITH AT THIS POINT. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SW TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONE MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE ON GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSITIONED ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP PRIMARY LAKE BREEZE/LAKE ENHANCED PUSH WEST OF KSBN. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY COLUMN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 020820 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 420 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 ...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STG THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THIS EVENING... LOW LEVEL MSTR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH 45 TO 55 KT LLJ AIDING IN THE PROCESS. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS STAYED AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS S WI INTO E IOWA (AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT) AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF S ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. NONE OF THE HIGH RES/SHORT TERM MODELS ARE DOING A GREAT JOB OF HANDING THE OVERALL SETUP MAKING EVOLUTION OF TODAY'S CONVECTIVE THREAT QUITE CHALLENGING. PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI WILL DIM THE SUN SOMEWHAT TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPS STARTING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WON'T TAKE MUCH TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S AND WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE WON'T TAKE MUCH TO FIRE CONVECTION ANYWHERE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SINCE MODELS NOT HELPING MUCH...WILL TRY TO PIECE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FORECAST TOGETHER. SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTIVE REMNANTS WILL MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TIME FRAME. AS ALREADY MENTIONED CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN MET AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG IN PLACE. DESPITE HEATING...LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF FAVORABLE WITH MAYBE 30 KTS. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION BUT SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED TO WET MICROBURSTS. HEAVY RAIN STILL REMAINS THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS THAT FIRE WITH PWATS ALREADY IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR LESS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH GREAT THAN 10,500 FT ALL POINTING TOWARDS 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. WHILE A FEW AREAS HAVE SEEN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS...OVERALL HYDRO SETUP FOR THE TIME BEING DOES NOT WARRANT ANY SORT OF HEADLINES GIVEN CONCERNS ABOUT SPACIAL COVERAGE AND DURATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HVY RAIN MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF POPS...PREV SHIFT ADDED CAT POPS IN AREA CLOSEST TO STRONGEST CONTRIBUTION FROM SHORT WAVE. WHILE NOT WILD ABOUT CAT POPS AT THIS JUNCTURE WITH EXACT MESOSCALE EVOLUTION STILL NOT CLEAR CUT...MAV/MET GUIDANCE ALL GIVE POINT TOWARDS HIGHER VALUES. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE BACKED OFF ON ARRIVAL THIS MORNING BUT QUICK RAMP UP TO CAT POPS FAR WEST AROUND 18Z AND THEN A BAND OF CAT POPS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. FASTER TREND SEEMS IN ORDER SO HAVE MOST PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS AWAY. AS A RESULT HAVE QUICKLY TAPERED POPS LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL STILL RESIDE WITH MAIN SFC FRONT STILL LINGERING TO THE WEST. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOST LIKELY PRONE TO THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN TAIL OF GREAT LAKES VORT MAX CLIPPING THE AREA COULD POSE SOME LOW END THREAT FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO BETTER COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS POPS...TRENDING TO MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. LONG ADVERTISED LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS UPSTREAM TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CORN BELT. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS STILL POINTING TOWARD NOCTURNAL MCS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONG TWO BASIC CAMPS. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TOO...MUCH OF THIS SPREAD SEEMS TO BE STEMMING FROM DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. GEM/EC REMAIN MORE CUT-OFF IN NATURE WITH A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARS TO SUPPRESS LOW LEVEL FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR LOCAL AREA...KEEPING SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA. SREF MEANS ALSO APPEAR TO BE STRONGER WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN BLOCKING NATURE TO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PATTERN...WILL HEDGE TOWARD A GFS/EC/GEM BLEND TO CAPTURE THE OVERALL TREND OF A BIT MORE SUPPRESSION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MCS EVOLUTION EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WESTERLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. IF MCS DOES MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE MORNING...WOULD EXPECT CONCURRENT FORWARD AND UPWIND PROPAGATION WILL BE LIKELY HOWEVER GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OHIO. TAKING THIS PROPAGATION INTO CONSIDERATION AND THE OVERALL 24 HOUR TREND OF A BIT MORE SUPPRESSION WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY END UP SHIFTING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OR ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR WEDNESDAY...AND STILL SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO WILL BE OF CONCERN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY AND PWAT AXIS OF 1.75+ INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TREND BACK TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN. LOW PREDICTABILITY FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...BUT SOME SIGNAL OF NEXT PROGRESSIVE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH HAS BEEN NOTED IN EC/GFS WHICH COULD BRING NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 MOISTURE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE AREA...NOW RESIDING OVER KFWA AND KSBN. A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS LLJ INCREASES. BETTER CHANCES STILL EXIST DURING MON AFTN/EVE AS FRONT AND DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE REGION. WILL LEAVE TAFS ALONE AT THIS POINT WITH OVERALL TIMING REASONABLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043- 046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FISHER SHORT TERM...FISHER LONG TERM...MARSILI AVIATION...FISHER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 071933 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 333 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND RAIN DEVELOPING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WITH RAIN ENDING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014 A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH CONFIRMATION FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS THIS AFTERNOON. MCV QUITE EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF IA AND NORTHERN MO STRETCHING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. MOST 12Z NWP MODELS AND HIRES GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MCV BACK NORTH AND HAVE LATCHED ONTO LARGE AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DRYING UP WITH MUCH DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW INHIBITING ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS. ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY QUITE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THETA E SINK FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...MSAS SHOWING UPSTREAM THETA E AIR IN ADVANCE OF MCV MAKING A RUN AT THE AREA AND SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER IL GRADUALLY CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS SURGE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERN GRADIENT UP TO BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 30 AND 6 CORRIDORS. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THIS HIGHER THETA E AIR WHILE LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCV ALLOWS PCPN SHIELD TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A MODEST 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN THETA E RIDGE AND FOCUSED JUST AHEAD OF MCV. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED GIVEN POOR OVERNIGHT TIMING AND PATHETIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 C/KM. HOWEVER...SHOWALTER INDICES DROP INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG SOUTH OF ABOUT HIGHWAY 30. WITH THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MODELS AND THIS RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BACK TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. K INDEX RISES INTO MID AND UPPER 30S LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER PWAT AND THETA E AIR AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 10KFT. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECT THIS TO BE A SETUP LIKE THIS PAST WEDNESDAY PCPN EVENT WITH MODERATE RAIN STRUNG OUT OVER SEVERAL HOURS. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS AND ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE EVENING. MCV CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE EARLY WITH RAIN BUT EXPECT A MODEST AFTERNOON REBOUND ONCE PCPN ENDS...ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING OCCURS RATHER QUICKLY. WILL STAY WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014 LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF PASSING MCV. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW...WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMAL ADVECTIONS WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CAP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F. THE NEXT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW IS INITIALLY BETTER DEFINED...BUT DOES BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND FILLS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STILL...TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE ON TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A DECENT 40 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND ACCOMPANYING THETA-E SURGE INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AMID RESPECTABLE 300-305K SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE THE DETAILS REMAIN NEBULOUS AT THIS POINT WITH DETERMINISTIC NWP CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION SURGE. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND HAVE PUSHED MOST AREAS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR LATE TUESDAY. LEFT THUNDER IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH GIVEN HIGHLY MARGINAL SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES. SOME DRY SLOT CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT VORTICITY LOBE PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL ABSORB THIS LOW ON THURSDAY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT LINGERING MOISTURE FOR THE VERY END OF THE WEEK. COULD BE MORE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PASSES. 12Z GFS GENERATES YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVE THAT PASSES OVER OUR AREA BUT FOR NOW PREFERENCE LIES WITH MORE SUBDUED ECMWF SOLUTION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014 VFR TO START THE PERIOD INTO LATE EVENING. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS IA AND MO THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE EAST TONIGHT. EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR RETURNS AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST RAIN WILL MOVE INTO TAF SITES AFTER 04Z. KSBN WILL LIKELY BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO REDUCE VIS AND CIGS INTO MVFR CATEGORY. KFWA WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES SUGGEST LOWER CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE WITH IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION. FOR NOW KEPT TAFS IN MVFR RANGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY AS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...LASHLEY AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 190816 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 416 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF NORTHERN INDIANA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY THOUGH...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AT PRESS TIME...SURFACE THETA-E GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE DRAPED RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING LLJ UPSTREAM HAS LED TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO OUR CWA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS DESPITE WEAKER AND MORE VEERED LLJ THIS FAR EAST. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG REMAIN CONFINED JUST TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST BUT ENOUGH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCALLY TO SUPPORT SCT/NUM THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST HALF. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH. CONFLUENT NNW ALOFT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND AVA FROM RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT SURFACE HIGH NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS COMBINED WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW AND LAKE AGGREGATE RIDGING WILL LIKELY PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG LLJ OR PASSING SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE. NOT SURE THE FRONT WILL FULLY CLEAR THE CWA AS SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SO WILL LEAVE IN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND THAT IS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. WIND PROFILES ALOFT/DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO LOW...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL REPORT THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP BUT THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. E/NE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80 IN OUR NORTHEAST HALF...LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BUT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60F IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 AGAIN LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGHLIGHT CONTINUES TO HIGH POPS FRIDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING CONSISTENCY IN WAY OF FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS/SIGNALS. MID TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX NEAR GLACIER NP TO GRADUALLY MOVE ENEWD TO NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG FRIDAY AS MORPHOLOGY OF NORTHERN DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENSION FORMS REX BLOCK OVER NW TERRITORIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOBE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS TRAILS SOUTHEAST WITH 40-50M/12 HR FALLS OVERSPREADING WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. NAM MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS WITH 80/70 SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELD 2500 J/KG. WEAK FLOW REGIME ALONG WITH HIGH PWAT /APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 10.5-12KFT POINT TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD/READILY INDUCED CONVECTION ABSENT OF APPRECIABLE CIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PRIOR UPSTREAM MCS/MCV GENERATION HIGHLY FAVORED. SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE TO ALREADY HIGH POPS DY2 ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION. LATER ITERATIONS TO LIKELY AFFORD TIMING/INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL MENTION AS UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FINER SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS EVOLVE. CONTINUED TREND OF LARGE SCALE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/AIRMASS TUMULT TO SQUELCH CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHERN CANADA TROF PROGRESSION. OVERALL GEM/GFS AGREEMENT TO BRING MAJORITY OF UPSTREAM ENERGY PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES LIKELY OFFERING MODEST AND LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS CONFIDENTLY SWEEPS TROF INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED WITH SIGNIFICANT DRIER/SUBSIDENT REGIME AS ANTICYCLONE MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLES INTO CHICAGOLAND. LATEST ECMWF TRENDING TO KEEP BULK OF ENERGY ORPHANED ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH HEIGHTS REBUILDING ACROSS OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK. GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT POP SIGNALS INCLINED TO CONTINUE TO SQUELCH MODEL CONSENSUS POPS TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 NORTHERN INDIANA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS LINE OF STORMS EXITS EAST. THERE ARE MORE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA THAT MAY CLIP THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT BUT LLJ IS MUCH WEAKER AND MORE VEERED THIS FAR EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KSBN. THE MORE IMPORTANT ASPECT TO THE AVIATION FORECAST IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG THAT IS DEVELOPING THANKS TO MOIST SURFACE AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KSBN...AND POSSIBLY EXPAND TO KFWA...THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXACT CONDITIONS TOUGH TO PINPOINT THOUGH AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...MURPHY AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 121837 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 237 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1133 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER ONTARIO WILL PROPEL A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF. THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THIS AREA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES ESTABLISHED WEST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THETA E MOISTURE FLUX WILL THEN INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. NOT EXCITED ABOUT SEVERE CHANCES GIVEN MARGINAL PARAMETERS AND THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER... NAM/BUFKIT SUPPORTS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2.3 INCHES AT TIMES EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE PER 64 YEAR UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SUFFICIENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND FAVORABLE NET STORM MOTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES AND HAVE ALSO MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THIS REGARD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THESE SOUTHEAST AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 FOCUS WILL BE ON EFFECTS OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. PIECE OF DEEP CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL BREAK OFF AND QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REACHING WISCONSIN BY MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO 110+ KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP FORCE A STRONG AND GENERALLY FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WHILE THE BETTER THETA E AIR WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED SE WITH THE SUNDAY FRONT...DEWPOINTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S (PWATS TO 1.5 INCHES). THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FORCING AND SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS AROUND THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SE AREAS...SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY MAY EXIST AND GIVEN AMOUNT OF SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOMS. IN TERMS OF POPS...BIT CONCERNED ABOUT DRY FORECAST MONDAY MORNING GIVEN AMOUNT OF MSTR STILL AROUND BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHC POPS CONFINED TO AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS DURING BEST TIME FRAME. A COLD MID WEEK BY JULY STANDARDS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDS NGT TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GFS HAS BEEN THROWN OUT WITH A MUST FASTER TREND OF PUSHING OUT THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY NOT REACH 70 IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH LAKE SHORE AREAS POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S (OR EVEN NEAR 60). OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOW 50S AT THIS POINT...BUT HONESTLY WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 40S ESPECIALLY NORTH. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA BUT WITH MAJORITY OF THE MSTR WELL SOUTH AND EAST NOT WORTHY OF PLACING IN FORECAST (WHICH BLEND OF MODELS GUIDANCE TRIES TO DO). FINALLY THE COLD AIR MASS WILL DEPART AND ALLOW SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THE EAST AND KEEPS DEEPER MSTR AND MOST SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER INDIANA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF. THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE. HAVE ADDED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TO COVER THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THETA E MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCED THUNDER TONIGHT IN THE TAFS GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CEO SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...SKIPPER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 060858 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 458 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 A QUIET DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS STOUT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AVA SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL/STABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS CLOUD COVER. MORNING STRATUS HOLDING STRONG IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. LATEST NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES. TOUGH TO GAUGE EXTENT THOUGH...GIVEN EXTREMELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL GO WITH STEADY DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKE AN INCREASING TOLL. THIS IDEA HAS SUPPORT FROM LATEST HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL...WHICH SHOW A MUCH DRIER PROFILE BY LATER TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING MAX TEMP FORECAST WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. WAA AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST/LOWER 50S EAST. NO CHANCE OF RAIN PRIOR TO 12Z. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 PRIMARY FOCUS CONTS ON SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO FINER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION/SVR POTNL ESPCLY LATE AFTN/EVE AND HEAVY RAFL. LATEST CONSENSUS FOR BEST CONVECTION POTNL TO HOLD UNTIL SUN AFTN. GUTTED POPS PRIOR TO 18 UTC AS MORE POIGNANT MCS/COUPLED JET DYNAMICS ON NERN PERIPHERY OF PLAINS EML FOCUSED WELL UPSTREAM TONIGHT INTO ERLY SUN AM. POTNL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG ERN/SERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX SUN AFTN. WITH ANTICIPATED INITIATION ACRS FAR ERN WI/NRN IL AS VIGOROUS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY /PRESENTLY OVR FAR SRN SASK/NERN MT DIGS INTO UPR GRTLKS/ AHEAD OF SEWD MOVG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. 00 UTC NAM12 SBCAPE APPEAR A BIT CONTAMINATED ACRS NRN IN SUN AFTN WITH MODIFIED T/TD TO LWR 80S/MID TO UPR 60S YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG HIEST SRN CWA...MLCAPE GRNLY 1000-1500 J/KG...THOUGH 06 UTC NAM ARRIVING WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. INCRSD WRLY FLOW AS TROF DEEPENS/ERN TX BASED GRDLY RETREATS SWWD INTO MEXICO CONTS TO LEND 40-50KTS OF DEEP LYR SHEAR...FOR POTNL HSLC SEVERE EVENT. MARKEDLY VEERED/STRENGTHENING PROFILES ESPCLY NOTED IN 0-4KM LYR IN TANDEM WITH FAVORABLE UL JET ENTRANCE REGION AND 20-30M/12 HR HFC SHOULD CONGEAL TO OPTIMIZE UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE MEDIOCRE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. SHERB3 PARAMETER APPEARS BEST FOR SVR/PSBL TOR POTNL...ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LAPORTE TO MARION LINE. MESOSCALE EVOLUTION DETAILS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...THOUGH INCREASED LARGER SCALE SIGNALS UPTICK IN MORE STRONGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GIVEN CONTD INJECTION OF WIDE BREADTH OF RICH UPSTREAM 1000-850 MB MIXING RATIOS...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND DECREASING MESOBETA ELEMENT SPEEDS WITH TIME POINT TO PONTL HEAVY RAFL/FLOODING AS CONVECTIVE MODALITY SHIFTS INTO SUN NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL TRAILING/TRAINING CELLS. SIG LESSER/NON SEVERE POTNL INTO MONDAY WITH AXIS OF UPR TROF SHIFTG INTO LWR GRTLKS. WITH COOLER MID LVL TEMPS AND WEAKER ENERGY /PRESENTLY ACRS BC/ALB/ TO DIG INTO BACKSIDE OF TROF HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHC POPS COMBINED WITH LESSER TSRA MENTION. CONTD DRY TUE AS PER PAST SVRL DAYS/ TRENDED DRY ON WED AS WELL WITH WARMING TREND/SWRLY FLOW AND EXPECT NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE TO REMAIN BELTED WELL NORTH WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL BNDRY TO FIZZLE WELL NORTH OF CWA AS IT LIES OUT IN CLOCKWISE FASHION/BECMS E-W ORIENTED. APPARENT SUPPORT AS SWRN/SRN PLAINS RIDGE IS REASSERTED ONCE VORTEX OFF SOCAL COAST BECMS FULLY REXED OUT AND LACK OF SIG/HIR THAN CLIMO GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE POPS. CONTD LOW CHC POPS WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE AS CA COAST SYSTEM MAY BECOMES COAXED INTO PLAINS TOWARD WEEKEND AND RETURN FLOW POOLS MID/UPR 60S DPS ACRS CWA AS WARM FNTL BNDRY IMPINGES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2015 COOL ENE FLOW SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IMPACTING KFWA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW DRIER AIR IS WORKING SOUTH AND COULD SEE SOME BREAKS BY LATER THIS MORNING. KEPT KSBN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AGAIN MAINLY AT KFWA...BUT LATEST HI-RES FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH CEILING HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE 3 KFT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE TAFS VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY THE EVENING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR INZ003. MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...MURPHY AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 190838 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 438 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE SOUTHWEST... THERE WAS STILL A VERY DISTINCT CIRCULATION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL OVER THE OZARKS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAIN EAST TODAY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. IN THIS REGARD...AS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY...KEPT A CHANCE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 PRESENT INDICATIONS STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY ATTENTION WILL CENTER ON EVOLUTION OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH STRONG NATURE OF NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SHOULD KEEP BULK OF FORCING JUST SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA...BUT EAST/NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FORCING. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FORCING IN THE AFTERNOON...LOCAL AREA MAY BE IN A LULL WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING IN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE. AT THIS TIME FEEL MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VEERING LOW LEVEL JET WITH PASSAGE OF PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD BRING A RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SOME CONCERN GIVEN SETUP THAT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION COULD SPILL INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...AND LOW MBE VELOCITIES ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ DO POINT TO AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN MATERIALIZE. THIS WOULD POSE A CONCERN GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND ONGOING RIVER/STREAM FLOODING. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD HOWEVER...BUT A PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...WITH ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME WIND THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT. A LULL IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN SETUP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SFC TROUGH/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY FOCUSING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS NOT ALLOWED WAVERING BAROCLINC ZONES TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHICH AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. A MORE ROBUST EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE TRACKING ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR EASTWARD LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE AGAIN...AND A PATTERN WHICH WOULD APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. POPS IN ANY ONE PERIOD OF LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME GIVEN MESOSCALE INFLUENCES/OUTFLOWS THAT WILL AFFECT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING HYDRO CONCERNS...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW MESOSCALE FACTORS PLAY OUT. FORCING BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED GETTING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL THETAE BOUNDARY AND PERIODIC ADVECTION OVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE BY AROUND THURSDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE PERHAPS SIGNIFYING TRANSITION IN OVERALL PATTERN AND TREND TO DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 DRIER AIR WAS JUST REACHING THE SBN TERMINAL BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. DRIER FLOW TODAY SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT A BETTER CHANCE NEAR FWA NEAR THE FRONT. THE ONGOING TAFS APPEAR ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A SHORT TIME AT FWA. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF MVFR BASED ON CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...MARSILI AVIATION...SKIPPER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 220807 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 407 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SOME STORMS WERE ALREADY FORMING OVER EAST IA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER THIS MORNING MOST AREAS AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG PER NAM BUFKIT. NCEP HIGH RES MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HAD INITIALIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION VERY GOOD AND APPEARED TO BB HANDLING STORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION WELL. MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF STORMS TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ARRIVES. COORDINATED SEVERE CHANCES WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES IN REGARD TO THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONCERN WITH ONGOING FLOODING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TODAY AS DRY...COOL LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES APPEAR POISED TO CAUSE IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF LOW LEVEL THETAE BOUNDARY FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE POPS RETURNING ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP RAMP OF S-SW LLJ. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO 100 KNOT GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY TAKE THE SHAPE OF ANOTHER MCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. PROLONGED STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING TO 12-13K FT SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL IN ORDER. SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR DEPENDING ON EXACT ORIENTATION OF LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE AXIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST PERHAPS SOUTHERN HALF WITH BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THREAT. BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY SHIFT SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MESOSCALE FACTORS REGARDING UPSTREAM EVOLUTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THREAT OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE BY FRIDAY AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH AGAIN. COOLER TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DID OPT TO KEEP BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015 A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SOME STORMS WERE ALREADY FORMING OVER EAST IA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AT SBN FROM 16Z TO 19Z AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG PER NAM BUFKIT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND OR AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THUNDER OUT EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE MENTIONING THUNDER TONIGHT ON THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONDITIONS INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS 50 KTS OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY AT SBN AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003. MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...MARSILI AVIATION...SKIPPER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 240826 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 426 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WAS A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THETE E ADVECTION AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER... THERE WAS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS. CONCERN FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG WINDS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 POTENTIAL MCS OR MCS REMNANTS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS LAGGING BACK ACROSS NRN/CTRL ILLINOIS SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR UPWIND PROPAGATION AND AN E-SE TRACK OF PRIMARY MCS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO UPSTREAM INITIATION/TRACK BUT HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RICHER/DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES. SOME CONDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST AFTER 12Z PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN IN ELEVATED NATURE AND OVERALL LIMITED MAGNITUDE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND GOOD DEAL OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARGUE FOR POTENTIAL MAINTENANCE OF WIND THREAT INTO FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 11K FT STILL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN CONCERN. IF MCS TRACK DOES END UP IMPACTING ESPECIALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEK PERIOD. NO HYDRO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND HOW ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL AFFECT LATER MCS DEVELOPMENT/TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD ALSO ON THE LOW TO MEDIUM SIDE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL MCS TRACK. COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SHOULD FOCUS MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHOULD TEND TO ADVECT SOME HEALTHY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM PLAINS EML BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL INDIANA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN PERSISTENT HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT AGAIN GREATER CONFIDENCE WOULD BE SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO WORK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD HAVE MAINTAINED IDEA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTENANCE OF LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHARPENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL DEFORMATION FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY MAY NEED TO TIGHTEN THIS POP GRADIENT AND POSSIBLY INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR CERTAIN PERIODS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THIS WAVE EXISTS TO GO MORE THAN LOW TO MID CHANCE AT THIS TIME. SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL NW FLOW WAVES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP MEAN THERMAL TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 A WARM FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. KEPT STORMS OUT FOR NOW AS EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...MARSILI AVIATION...SKIPPER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 051938 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 338 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 ONE MORE QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD BEFORE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT PRESS TIME...BETWEEN RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AS IT IS REABSORBED INTO THE MEAN WESTERLIES BUT WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SEND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THOUGH AND THIS WILL SERVE AS A FLOOR ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. INHERITED FORECAST GENERALLY IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE. SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG/BR AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE. CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD STILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. NAM NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE PROFILES AND MET GUIDANCE ARE SUPPORTIVE...AND PERSISTENCE CERTAINLY ARGUES FOR AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/SEVERITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC OVER-ACHIEVING DAY FOR MAX TEMPS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STRONG JULY SUN WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 800MB. CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD WARMER MOS GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 80S AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF A FEW PLACES TOUCH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 FOCUS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOW END POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH MONDAY EVENING...BUT WOULD EXPECT ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MONDAY EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO OVERCOME SOME WEAK CAPPING ISSUES. STRONGEST FORCING WITH NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY...WITH UPPER WAVE GRADUALLY DAMPENING THROUGH TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. LOCAL AREA SHOULD BECOME BETTER POSITIONED IN BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER/STORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WELL OUT AHEAD THE FRONT IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DIURNAL TIMING LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNFAVORABLE WITH CONTAMINATING RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MORE ROBUST SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ALSO BE WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE QUITE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GREATER CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS GIVEN ABUNDANT PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...AND A FAIRLY STRONG 30-40 SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET AIDING IN SOME UPWIND DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING WITH FROPA. LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL APPEARS TO SUPPORT PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AS LOW LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ADVECTS BACK NORTHWARD...PARTICULARLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE TSRA POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO DAMPEN CENTRAL CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG. GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...MARSILI AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 090043 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 843 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS. A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALREADY SOME INDICATIONS OF A 40-50 KNOT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET PER KLSX VAD WIND PROFILE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS UPPER VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE INTACT GIVEN WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UPWARDS OF 14K FT...LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL JET...FAIRLY STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING...AND PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE JUST A MINOR NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT WILL NOT EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME GIVEN SOMEWHAT LESSER RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 POTENT SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTN WILL LIFTOUT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AGGRESSIVE THETA-E ADVTN DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LL CIRC...H85 50KT LLJ... WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS ASCENT OVERTOP NWD RTNG FNTL BNDRY AND XPC WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER AS A RESULT. GIVEN TIGHT 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN LIGHT OF NWD REACH OF LEAD PCPN SHIELD HAVE AGAIN BUMPED POPS HIGHER ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT W/LIKELY HEAVY RAIN ALG/SWD OF THE HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR THROUGH NRN IN/NW OH. OTRWS THIS SYS MINORS OUT NEWD QUICKLY THU AM...W/RESIDUAL POST FNTL TROUGHING KEEPING CLDS AND PERHAPS SOME DZ/--RA INTACT UNTIL ERLY AFTN ESP EAST. PRIOR TEMP FCSTS LOOKED OVERLY OPTIMISTIC YDA AND GIVEN THE STRUGGLE ONGOING TDA...WILL AGAIN CUT IN ACCORDANCE TO DEGREE OF LL CAA AND DOWNWARD TRENDING MOS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL CHANCES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LONG TERM BEGINS DRY WITH LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRAP BETTER BL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER WAVE SHOOTS EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 18Z FRI TO 00Z SAT. AS LARGE SCALE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL US THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH EXTREMELY MOIST PROFILE...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH ALLOW FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DETERIORATING CIGS...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE 06Z-10Z AT TERMINALS...WITH DEFORMATION FORCING ALLOWING FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. WIND FORECAST IS OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN SFC LOW TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT KFWA BEFORE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO HELD OFF ON MENTION OF LLWS AT THIS TIME...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW FROM 08Z-12Z WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR MARGINAL LLWS CRITERIA AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ008-009-012>018-020- 022>027-032>034. MI...NONE. OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015- 016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MARSILI SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...T LONG TERM...NG AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 091903 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 303 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLIER TODAY HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHED WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INSTABILITY AXIS. WHILE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...STILL SUSPECTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS REMNANT MCV AND POSSIBLE CHANNEL OF BETTER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS. HAVE CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL LIMITED INSTABILITY STILL LENDS TO SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF THUNDER COVERAGE...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN THIS EVENING...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 12K FT COULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE...DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK NEAR SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY STEEPER WITH APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE NAM/GFS CONSENSUS OF 1500 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPES SEEM REASONABLE. 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH....WHICH COULD YIELD SOME ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THREAT. DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS STILL IN QUESTION HOWEVER...AND CONFIDENCE IN STRONG STORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW. IF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH MOST LIKELY POSITION OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS/DEPARTING SFC REFLECTION. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AS SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES IN THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE WEST. GIVEN THE MODERATE WIND SPEEDS AND LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE...BEACH HAZARDS HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY. BEYOND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH THE UPPER FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH INTO CANADA...KEPT FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015 LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOUR PERIOD...BUT WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND APPROACH OF A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WOULD SUSPECT SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT TOWARD EVENING. WITH OVERALL INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO VCTS AT KFWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING. WILL TREND KSBN TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE LATER AMENDMENTS/ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO GO MORE PESSIMISTIC. HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER FORCING MAY REQUIRE SOME SHRA OR TSRA MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MONDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...BENTLEY AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 171944 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AS OF 19Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ANTICIPATING DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG MODIFIED OUTFLOW/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NOTED ON VIS SAT AS A LINE OF TOWERING CU AND RADAR W/ WEAK RETURNS FROM NEAR MICHIGAN CITY NW TOWARD KAZO. ALL HI RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BY 21Z...DESPITE VERY LIMITED SFC FORCING. HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING TO BUILD AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS IS YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN IN INTO SRN LWR MI. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SFC TO 700 MB FROM 8 TO 9 C/KM. MID/UPPER JET FOCUSING BEST SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MEAGER AT BEST WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A MAINLY PULSE STORM ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER SOME STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB...WITH DCAPE VALUES FROM 1200 TO 1600 J/KG. A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT VERY WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED SHEAR QUELLING A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN RICH LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT...PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 12KFT. ANY TRAINING T-STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. T-STORM THREAT/COVERAGE WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOWERING OF POPS THROUGH 06Z. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. SECONDARY STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. HAVE HOISTED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100F TO 105F ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MAX T VALUES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EVEN LESS FORCING AND MORE CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED POP UP STORM DURING THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXTEND NE FROM SRN PLAINS TO OUR CWA AT START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY EVE. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUGGESTING A WK SHRTWV WILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE TSTMS GIVEN MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHEST POPS PLACED IN NW ZONES DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF CDFNT TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE M70S. CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY... LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY TSTMS. GIVEN VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH RATHER STRONG LINEAR FORCING... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SVR STORMS... THOUGH LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED RATHER WK WIND FIELD/SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY GIVE PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2". HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 NEAR LAKE MI WHERE FROPA WILL COME IN THE MORNING TO NEAR 90 FAR SE-E PORTION OF CWA WHERE AFTN FROPA EXPECTED. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WHICH SHOULD ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR FAIR WX MONDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO A BIT BLO NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S. SHRTWV EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS TUE WITH ASSOCIATED WK CDFNT PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE AFTN... PSBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FRONT PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WED. AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THU A WARM FRONT APCHG FROM THE SW EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF TSTMS... WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE PROVIDING FAIR WX FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015 AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU SLOW TO MIX OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN EXTREMELY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT MIXING TO VFR TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. INTRODUCED VCTS MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF TSRA IS STILL LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AMEND TAFS WHERE NEEDED TO INCLUDE BETTER TIMING/IMPACTS FROM TSRA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ077>081. OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY/NG SHORT TERM...NG LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...NG VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 250914 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 414 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 414 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. RAIN WILL THEN RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH OVER AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX WITH THIS SECOND ROUND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 414 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 SHORT TERM PERIOD LARGELY QUIET. FGEN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG/SOUTH OF US-24 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND EXIT AROUND 12-15Z. VERY DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED DUE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F WITH LARGE SENSITIVITY TO EXACT SKY COVER TRENDS. KEPT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH SERVES AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BUT SOME ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED IN EITHER DIRECTION DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT CLOUDS SCATTER. PRIMARY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS WITH POPS/WX OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND KEEP IT THERE UNTIL AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. IT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND HAVE PUSHED BACK PRECIP START TIMES DRASTICALLY AND CUT POPS. LOW LEVEL THETA-E SURGE COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF US-30 AROUND 09-12Z BUT RELATIVELY WEAK LLJ AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION SUGGEST JUST A LOW CHANCE POP AT BEST. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PTYPES WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY LIQUID WHERE IT DOES MANAGE TO PRECIPITATE. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 414 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 UPR LEVEL TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS EXPECTED TO SPLIT WITH NRN STREAM SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE GRTLKS THIS WEEKEND WHILE A STRONG VORT MAX DIGS INTO THE SWRN CONUS AND CLOSES OFF. BACKING/STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG ISENT LIFT AT NOSE OF LLJ AND A GULF AIRMASS WITH PWAT'S APCHG 1.4". DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH OVER 10KFT AND WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. EXPECT 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND A WK WAVE MOVES E-NE ALONG IT. PRECIP SHOULD END BY SUNDAY EVE... BUT THE STRONG CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY. CAA BEHIND THE WEEKEND WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE A WINTRY MIX IN OUR AREA AT LEAST AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP AS THE MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES. ECMWF/NAM TRACK OF THE UPR LOW WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE FARTHER SE TRACK OF GFS/GEM SUGGESTS MORE SNOW/ICE. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD AT THIS JUNCTURE... FCST A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT NW PORTION OF CWA...WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN SE ON MONDAY. THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO HEIGHTENS FLOODING CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT DEEP WRN TROF EXPECTED TO FINALLY SHIFT EAST TO THE ERN CONUS MID-LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL BY NEW YEARS EVE. NO SGFNT PRECIP EXPECTED IN THIS TIMEFRAME... THOUGH EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AS THE UPR TROF MOVES IN... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THU AS COLD NW LOW LEVEL FLOW DVLPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND THETA-E TROUGH SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME CONCERN FOR HIGH-END MVFR STRATOCU DECK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY DRY AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST A SCT MENTION. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...AGD VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 252154 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 454 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 ...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 414 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH THIS INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND PROSPECTS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH EMERGING FROM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS/BAJA OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH MUCH OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT TEMP DROPS EARLY THIS EVENING. DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EVENTUAL ONSET OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT MAY TEND TO LEVEL OUT TEMPS SOME AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY SHALLOW NATURE TO MOISTURE RETURN IN THE MORNING SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.3 TO 1.5 RANGE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH LOCAL AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSITIONED IN BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER JET. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO ENHANCE LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL FORCING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON ABOVE FACTORS HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SOME FAIRLY DECENT RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 10K FT AND SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD ENTER THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS DISCUSSED IN LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 413 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES TO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THE TIMING AND CHANCES FOR ANY WINTRY MIX EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER MUCH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...HAVE UPDATED THE ONGOING HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. CONFIDENCE WAS INCREASING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INTERVALS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THE INITIAL TWO ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK INCREASED ANTECEDENT MOISTURE. AT THE MOMENT... NO RIVERS WERE IN FLOOD...BUT STAGES HAVE INCREASED SINCE MONDAY. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... WITH A GENERAL NORTH SHIFT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL. VERY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME INTO PLAY BY SATURDAY NIGHT INCLUDING A RELATIVELY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW AREAS WITH THE GREATEST FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS. FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THESE BASINS IS 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN THE MIDST OF THE WET CONDITIONS...A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING MONDAY INSTEAD OF MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY MONDAY WILL BE TOO WARM ALOFT TO SUPPORT SNOW...SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD LAYER NEAR THE GROUND. ADDED FREEZING RAIN EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ...WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR 10C...IT IS UNLIKELY THE RAIN WILL BE SUPERCOOLED. IT APPEARS ROAD CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR TRAVEL OTHER THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF ICING OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEW YEARS DAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 A DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VEERING WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR STRATOCU BASED AROUND 2K FT PERSISTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WEST OF KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON OF ANY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CIGS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RAMP UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY BRINGING AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT...MASS CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THIS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND LIKELY TO IFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. MI...NONE. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARSILI SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  FXUS63 KIWX 262128 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 428 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 440 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF US-24 AND ROUGHLY 2-3.5 INCHES SOUTH OF US-24 THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF US-24 WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 38 TO 52...WARMEST SOUTHEAST OF US-24. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FACTORS STILL APPEAR TO BE INLINE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LEAST A PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS STILL REMAIN OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR BROAD FRONTAL RESPONSE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WITH A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL FORCING WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 1.4-1.5 INCH PWAT AXIS (350- 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL) WILL ALSO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST GFS/NAM BUFFER DATA ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RISING IN EXCESS OF 10K FT TONIGHT. WHILE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...A STRENGTHENING 50-60 KNOT LLJ THIS EVENING ALSO WILL RESULT IN VERY SMALL PROPAGATION VECTORS. STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW LEVEL JET/NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION WILL GIVE RISE TO IMPRESSIVE GEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING AND ENHANCEMENT OF LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED...STILL SOME ASPECTS OF THIS SETUP LEND TO SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HIGHER RES GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUPPORTED HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG LOWER BRANCH OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHERE LOWER BASED INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN A BIT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...WITH CURRENT TRENDS STILL LARGELY SUPPORTIVE. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL REMAINS A BIT LOWER FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS HOWEVER. RAIN RATES SHOULD DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY AS FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 FOR THIS PACKAGE...FLOODING AND WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TO BRING IN A SHALLOW COLD LAYER ABOUT THE GROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AIR JUST ABOUT THIS LAYER WARMS UP DRAMATICALLY SO BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THERE IS ONLY A MINIMUM CHANCE FOR SNOW. INSTEAD...LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SUPPORTS MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SOUNDING. DEFINITELY SOME CONCERN ON HOW FAST THE LOWER COLD LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT. TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER 12K NAM AND WARMER GFS. THE GREATEST CONCERNS OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT KEPT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL SOME QUESTION IF ROADS WILL BECOME ICY GIVEN RECENT VERY WARM WEATHER. IT IS POSSIBLE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEED TO COVER THIS WEATHER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY OR DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ANY WINTRY WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD SUBSIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY WEATHER...THIS LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY FLOOD CONCERNS. MESONET OBS THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY WERE SHOWING SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AND ABOVE AN INCH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF A GENERAL FLOOD SCENARIO DURING THIS TIME WITH RISING AND POSSIBLY FLOODING RIVERS ALONG WITH LOWLAND FLOODING. HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING TO COVER THESE CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLD BY THE END OF THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY THE NEW YEAR ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LIFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AREA OF BETTER FORCING IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM MORE PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY SO CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT TERMINALS IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. A BRIEF LULL IN GREATER RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS SFC TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD...WITH NORTH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ008-009- 012>018-020-022>027-032>034. MI...NONE. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MARSILI LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION...MARSILI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA