FXUS63 KILX 312001 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 301 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRACKING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL THRU EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT BAY...AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW LOW 80S OVER EXTREME SE IL WHERE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN HAS STAYED AWAY FROM FOR NOW. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN SOME WITH THE HIGHER CAPES ACRS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACRS OUR AREA SATURDAY. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO ENE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE IL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH 850 MB THETA-E AIR AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS MORNINGS 850 MB CHART SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE 15-18 DEGREE C RANGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 12000 FEET OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL LATER THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE RIVERS IN EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND...WHEREAS THE NORTHERN BASINS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH THIS TIME FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. HOWEVER...UNTIL WE SEE THIS SCENARIO START TO EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THRU SATURDAY (SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW). THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTH...SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MCS TRACKS FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. JUST WHAT AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS A REAL CHALLENGE THIS FAR OUT AS EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO. IT STILL APPEARS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-55 STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOMORROW EVENING ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT SO WILL START TO SHAVE THE POPS BACK LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER WAY TRACKS ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE FAR WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SMITH && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY FALLING AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND SHOULD REACH KCMI BY 19Z. OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHOWERS...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC...IT APPEARS SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT BOTH KPIA AND KBMI UNTIL EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...EMPHASIS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TRAINING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SET UP...WITH THE I-72 TERMINALS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN AREA. HAVE INCLUDED PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH VCTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z ACCORDINGLY AT KSPI...KDEC...AND KCMI. AFTER THAT...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF I-55. BARNES && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT TRENDS IN MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THE EMPHASIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IS ACTUALLY GOOD NEWS FOR THE DRENCHED SPOON AND ILLINOIS BASINS. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE SANGAMON...WABASH AND LITTLE WABASH...AND EMBARRAS BASINS HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT AS A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ENE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IL. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WE SHOULD NOT ONLY SEE AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL BUT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SMITH && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$  FXUS63 KILX 232014 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 2PM SURFACE MAP INDICATES THE COLD FRONT THE PRODUCED THE SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LAST EVENING HAS FINALLY SETTLED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SLOWLY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING THINGS QUIET BEFORE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER FAR WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE BETTER THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN IL BY MORNING SO AFTER NOT MUCH GOING ON THIS EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT JUST PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON STARTS TO MAKE THE TRIP BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL MAKE IT REMAINS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A WELL DEVELOPED MCS TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS MAINLY OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOMORROW BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HOLD BACK THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH THE REAL STRONG PUSH NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 JOULES/KG WILL LEAD TO A STRONG TO SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NAM-WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW EVENING EXHIBIT 30-40 KTS INFLOW (850 MB LOW LEVEL JET) AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 12,500 FT WHICH WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON LINE WILL BE INCLUDED IN ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING OVER 3 INCHES WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP. ONCE THE MCS DEPARTS THURSDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A RATHER DEEP TROUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL FINALLY GIVE THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY A SOLID PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA..RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE REGION...WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURING ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LEAVING NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. SOME SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT. VFR THROUGHOUT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-036>038. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...HJS  FXUS63 KILX 030922 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Lincoln IL 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015 Main short-term forecast concern will be sky cover and its impact on high temperatures today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows a large area of low clouds covering Wisconsin, the eastern half of Iowa, into northern Missouri and western Illinois. The leading edge of the clouds is currently along the Illinois River and pushing slowly southeastward. Based on satellite timing tools...the clouds will reach the I-55 corridor by 12z/6am, then will continue to spread further east and south as the morning progresses. Models are not handling the current cloud field particularly well, with the GFS completely missing it and going with a mostly clear forecast today. Even the NAM tends to aggressively scatter the clouds during the morning, despite the presence of a strengthening subsidence inversion. Meanwhile, the HRRR hangs on to the low clouds through the entire day. Think the actual solution will be somewhere in between...as upstream PIREPS from eastern Iowa reveal a cloud depth of only around 1000 feet. Despite low sun angle, think shallow cloud deck will gradually erode by mid to late afternoon. Overall forecast will be mostly cloudy across much of the area, with mostly sunny conditions prevailing along/south of I-70 where cloud deck will never arrive. Even with some late afternoon sunshine, temperatures will be held down quite a bit. Have therefore undercut the MAV guidance by several degrees, with afternoon highs remaining in the lower to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 3 2015 Quiet weather will prevail throughout the extended, with the only weather feature of note passing through the region with little fanfare Sunday into Monday. Before that system arrives, rising upper heights and light southerly winds on the back side of strong surface high pressure will yield an unseasonably warm weekend with temperatures rising at least 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. With abundant sunshine, highs on Saturday will climb into the lower to middle 50s. MEX guidance even suggests some upper 50s will be possible across the area. Temperatures will drop a few degrees back into the upper 40s/lower 50s on Sunday as a short-wave trough approaches from the west and spreads clouds into the area. Models are now in fairly good agreement with the timing of this system, with both the GFS and ECMWF bringing it through central Illinois on Sunday. Due to an initially very dry airmass beneath sprawling high pressure, the wave will have little moisture to work with. The GFS tries to develop a few showers, but am quite skeptical at this point. Will therefore only include slight chance PoPs for showers across the western half of the CWA on Sunday, then across the E/SE Sunday night. After that, a return to warm and dry weather is anticipated through mid-week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST WED DEC 2 2015 Skies will be clear at all sites to start the TAF forecast. However, as seen on satellite, an area of MVFR clouds is moving in from the north and west. Believe, based on satellite trends and HRRR forecast, that these clouds will advect over the sites beginning at 09z at PIA and then move eastward, reaching CMI at 13z. With this low level moisture trapped beneath the strong inversion of the high pressure area moving into the area overnight, thinking is that the clouds will remain over the area through the day and into the afternoon. Low sun angle will not help either. Based on positioning of ridge, once that arrives into the area, the clearing will begin. So have scattering of the clouds beginning at PIA/DEC/SPI at 23z and then CMI/BMI at 00z. Then have clearing of the skies about 3-4 hrs later. Winds will remain light through the period, but begin out of the west to northwest and then become more southeast or light and variable during the evening hours. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten  FXUS63 KILX 251546 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 946 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Main concern remains with the extensive cloud cover and how it will affect temperatures today. Morning sounding continues to show a subsidence inversion around 870 mb, with cloud thicknesses around 1800-2000 feet per area pilot reports. Some small breaks have formed across northeast Illinois and a bit of sunshine is likely around Champaign and Danville through midday, but there still is a lot of cloud cover upstream through central Iowa. Forecast soundings show the cloud thicknesses shrinking with time, and some more sunshine should start to appear over the southwest CWA by mid afternoon. Temperatures are running a few degrees below the original forecast curve, and have been updated to lower highs a degree or two. Radar mosaics showing rain and snow showers across Wisconsin and parts of northeast Illinois ahead of a shortwave pushing through the Minneapolis area. Some earlier sprinkles passed just north of our CWA, with the HRRR suggesting the activity currently over west central Wisconsin may make a close pass as well later this afternoon. Have added a few sprinkles to the far northeast fringes of the CWA this afternoon, but am not expecting anything significant at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Low clouds continue to blanket much of the Midwest early this morning, and it appears any clearing across central Illinois will be a slow-go today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows overcast conditions extending as far west as eastern Nebraska/Kansas. While there had been a few breaks in the overcast across eastern Missouri earlier, those have since filled back in. Latest HRRR forecast shows cloud cover holding firm until late this afternoon across the far SW KILX CWA. Have therefore slowed the clearing trend and have gone with a cloudy forecast today. In addition, a short-wave trough skirting by to the north may bring a few sprinkles to locations north of Peoria. Once the wave passes to the east, skies will finally clear from west to east tonight. Due to extensive cloud cover, high temperatures today will be held in the middle 40s. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Upper-level ridging will build into the Midwest for Saturday and Sunday, providing warm and dry conditions. High temperatures will climb into the 50s both days. The next chance for precipitation will hold off until Sunday night when a short-wave trough approaches from the west. 00z Nov 25 models are all in good agreement with the track and timing of this feature, with rain showers becoming numerous across the area Sunday night. Once the initial wave lifts into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a lull in the precip will be observed Monday morning before another more significant wave approaches later in the day. With deep-layer southwesterly flow in place from the Southern Plains to the Ohio River Valley, copious amounts of moisture will flow northward ahead of the next disturbance...with GFS precipitable water values reaching near record values for this time of year around 1.25. The wave will interact with this ample moisture to produce heavy rainfall across parts of central/southeast Illinois. As has been seen with recent model runs, the latest run is suggesting the heaviest rain axis will set up across the SE CWA from Monday afternoon through Monday night. All models are now advertising a quicker exit to the system, with the rain diminishing to scattered showers by Tuesday morning. The latest projections show rainfall totals of 1 to 1.50 along/south of I-70. Once the early week storm passes, a return to mild and dry weather is anticipated for the remainder of the extended. The 00z GFS/ECMWF both feature dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday, with another wave lifting northeastward across the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys. This scenario would keep rain chances southeast of Illinois across Kentucky/southern Indiana. Meanwhile, the GEM features a much stronger wave tracking further to the northwest, resulting in rain across central Illinois on Wednesday. Given the poor performance of the GEM as of late and the fact that its the definite outlier, have rejected its solution in favor of the dry GFS/ECMWF consensus. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 559 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 High pressure will track across the central Illinois terminal area through the 12Z TAF valid time. The MVFR CIGs trapped across the area today will gradually lift to VFR by this evening. The skies will eventually scatter out tonight. Generally light winds will prevail through the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Bak  FXUS63 KILX 140000 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 600 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 A 992 mb low is centered near Milwaukee this afternoon and a cold front trailing from the low southwestward through roughly the I-55 corridor, pushing southeastward. Brisk winds were gusting up to 40 mph well ahead of the front, with a short lull in winds until behind the cold front where gusts to around 45 mph are prevalent, with the winds shifted to WNW. Expecting the strongest winds to push east to the IN border by around sunset, then winds will begin to taper off a few hours after sunset across central IL as the parent low moves rapidly east and the strongest winds aloft and surface pressure gradients shift east. A wind advisory remains in effect until 9 p.m. for most of central Illinois except for Richland, Lawrence, and Crawford Counties. Light showers can also be expected along the front this afternoon, with little or no measurable precipitation. Overnight, winds will gradually decrease as a high pressure ridge approaches from the west. Winds will end up light WNW only around 5 mph during the day Thursday as a result of the ridge. Expect lows tonight back down to the low to mid 20s as cold post-frontal air moves back in from the northwest, with highs Thursday only in the low to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 The next weather system will arrive early Friday morning as a shortwave trough arrives from the northwest. Models produce only scattered and very light precipitation with this feature, however it will likely be able to produce some flurries north of I-70. After this, the pattern begins to shift as the large-scale eastern trough/western ridge move east with ridging and southerly flow developing into the central U.S. bringing warmer temperatures reaching the 40s in central IL through early next week. A disturbance embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will provide a chance of rain Sunday, potentially beginning as light snow early Sunday morning. After that, models disagree on timing and track of precipitation, however general trends in the pattern suggest precipitation gravitating toward the southeast U.S. early next week as the west coast ridge and eastern trough re-establish. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 600 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 A deep surface low just east of Chicago will continue to pull away to the east this evening. An expansive area of MVFR clouds are expected to rotate through central Illinois behind the low. HRRR is optimistically showing ceilings improving to VFR toward 06z, but confidence on that is low. HRRR is also showing clearing in N Illinois expanding toward our I-74 TAF sites after midnight. PIREPs are showing the cloud thickness to be about 2,000 feet, which is thick enough to reduce the chances of the cloud layer thinning out overnight. Have kept MVFR conditions through 06z, but may need to extend later. Strong W-NW winds will continue this evening. Mixing heights will lower after 03z, which will help gusts diminish by midnight. By sunrise, the pressure gradient and height rises will weaken enough for sustained winds below 10kt. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>057-061>063-066-067-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...Shimon  FXUS63 KILX 062358 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 558 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 Mid afternoon surface map shows deepening 999 mb low pressure over southeast CO with a warm front extending eastward thru nw KS to northern MO and arching back into sw IL, south and sw of CWA. Mid and high clouds of 15-25k ft have increased/thickened during today across central and southeast IL, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies at mid afternoon. Temps range over far northern CWA at Galesburg and Lacon, to 55F in Lawrenceville and Mount Carmel airport in Lawrence county. Easterly winds of 8-18 mph and few gusts of 20-25 mph over northern CWA making it feel a bit cooler. The 12Z models take upper level trof over the Rockies into the central plains as it flattens out on Monday. This will eject surface low pressure from southeast CO ne into northern WI by midday Monday and swing a cold front eastward across IL during Monday afternoon. Models have trended slower with bringing rain chances eastward into IL during tonight, and 12z ILX sounding shows large dry area off the surface, so this slower trends seems good. Confined chances of light rain showers to the IL river valley during mid/late evening, then spreading east toward I-57 during overnight, and into far eastern IL and the Wabash river valley during Monday morning. Rain chances then diminish/end behind the cold front from west to east during Mon afternoon. Breezy east winds turn se during tonight and keep temps nearly steady or even slowly rising with mild lows in the 40s. Strong SSW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph brings milder highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Monday, mildest from Springfield sw. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 Some cooler/drier air ushers into central/southeast IL during Monday night as clouds decrease, though temps still well above normal. Lows Mon night range from upper 30s nw half of CWA to near 45F by Lawrenceville. Increasing WNW winds on Tue with gusts of 25-35 mph so another windy day, with mostly sunny skies with scattered stratocumulus clouds especially from I-74 ne. Highs Tue range from mid 40s northern CWA to lower 50s in southeast IL, though temps slipping into the low to mid 40s by dusk due to cold air advection. Strong/large Canadian high pressure moves out of the Canadian & US Rockies and into the MS river valley by Thu morning. Aloft IL gets established in a nw upper level flow with deep upper level trof over the northeast states and upper level ridge over the front range of the Rockies. Dry and seasonably cold conditions generally expected over central IL Wed thru Friday. Lows Wed night of 20-25F in central IL and upper 20s in southeast IL. Below normal temps are expected Wed/Thu over area for a change. Highs Wed/Thu in the upper 20s/lower 30s despite a fair amount of sunshine. Lows in the mid to upper teens Wed night with far southeast IL near 20F. Lows in the lower 20s Thu night. Temps moderate closer to normal on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. A northern stream short wave diving se into the western Great Lakes Friday/Saturday could bring chances of light snow showers to the area mainly Fri night into Sat morning especially ne half of CWA. Highs next weekend in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with mildest readings sw CWA and southeast IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 558 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 A warm front lifting through Illinois will increase mid-level moisture and cloud thickness. A dry sub-cloud layer will prevent much in the way of rain from reaching the ground until after midnight. Sprinkles may occur, but no significance to aviation concerns. Better chances of steady rains is still expected later tonight, especially west of I-55. Steady rains look to affect all TAF sites for 4 to 6 hours tomorrow, before dry air quickly pushes into Illinois from the west Monday afternoon, after a cold frontal passage. Winds will be a concern throughout this TAF period, with gusty southeast winds to start the 00z TAFs. Gusts will increase this evening to 25KT at times. Winds are expected to become southerly by 12z, with gusts around 30KT Monday morning. A cold frontal passage later morning and early afternoon will cause winds to shift to the southwest, then increase again. Southwest gusts by late afternoon could reach back into the 25-30kt range, as cloud ceilings climb from IFR to MVFR, and possibly even VFR for SPI and PIA. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Shimon  FXUS63 KILX 070537 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 The 00z model runs show some delay in the onset of rain across central Illinois this evening, and the 00z KILX sounding supports that as well. A dry sub-cloud layer will take a few hours to saturate, especially east of the IL river. Areas west of the IL river should see some light rain develop before midnight, as a stronger push of forcing rides along the warm front toward central IL. Have slowed down the eastward advancement of rain tonight, with areas east of I-57 probably remaining dry until toward sunrise. Despite the PoPs being up in the categorical range (80%+), QPF amounts look to remain on the light side, with most areas seeing around 0.25" of rain or less. Limited instability will reduce updraft strength, and no thunderstorms are expected. However, strong wind shear will set the stage for wind gusts of 30-35 mph at times overnight and Monday during any rain showers. The strong winds are already covered well in the forecast. A cold frontal passage tomorrow will bring the onset of colder and drier air to the area. Rain looks to diminish quickly Monday afternoon from west to east, with clearing skies Monday night. Low temps tonight will remain quite mild, as a warm front shifts northward through the area. Lows will remain in the 40s across the board tonight. Updates mainly concentrated on precip timing and coverage, with other areas of the forecast generally on track. Updated forecast info is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 Mid afternoon surface map shows deepening 999 mb low pressure over southeast CO with a warm front extending eastward thru nw KS to northern MO and arching back into sw IL, south and sw of CWA. Mid and high clouds of 15-25k ft have increased/thickened during today across central and southeast IL, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies at mid afternoon. Temps range over far northern CWA at Galesburg and Lacon, to 55F in Lawrenceville and Mount Carmel airport in Lawrence county. Easterly winds of 8-18 mph and few gusts of 20-25 mph over northern CWA making it feel a bit cooler. The 12Z models take upper level trof over the Rockies into the central plains as it flattens out on Monday. This will eject surface low pressure from southeast CO ne into northern WI by midday Monday and swing a cold front eastward across IL during Monday afternoon. Models have trended slower with bringing rain chances eastward into IL during tonight, and 12z ILX sounding shows large dry area off the surface, so this slower trends seems good. Confined chances of light rain showers to the IL river valley during mid/late evening, then spreading east toward I-57 during overnight, and into far eastern IL and the Wabash river valley during Monday morning. Rain chances then diminish/end behind the cold front from west to east during Mon afternoon. Breezy east winds turn se during tonight and keep temps nearly steady or even slowly rising with mild lows in the 40s. Strong SSW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph brings milder highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Monday, mildest from Springfield sw. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 Some cooler/drier air ushers into central/southeast IL during Monday night as clouds decrease, though temps still well above normal. Lows Mon night range from upper 30s nw half of CWA to near 45F by Lawrenceville. Increasing WNW winds on Tue with gusts of 25-35 mph so another windy day, with mostly sunny skies with scattered stratocumulus clouds especially from I-74 ne. Highs Tue range from mid 40s northern CWA to lower 50s in southeast IL, though temps slipping into the low to mid 40s by dusk due to cold air advection. Strong/large Canadian high pressure moves out of the Canadian & US Rockies and into the MS river valley by Thu morning. Aloft IL gets established in a nw upper level flow with deep upper level trof over the northeast states and upper level ridge over the front range of the Rockies. Dry and seasonably cold conditions generally expected over central IL Wed thru Friday. Lows Wed night of 20-25F in central IL and upper 20s in southeast IL. Below normal temps are expected Wed/Thu over area for a change. Highs Wed/Thu in the upper 20s/lower 30s despite a fair amount of sunshine. Lows in the mid to upper teens Wed night with far southeast IL near 20F. Lows in the lower 20s Thu night. Temps moderate closer to normal on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. A northern stream short wave diving se into the western Great Lakes Friday/Saturday could bring chances of light snow showers to the area mainly Fri night into Sat morning especially ne half of CWA. Highs next weekend in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with mildest readings sw CWA and southeast IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 A warm front lifting through Illinois will continue increase mid- level moisture and cloud thickness. A dry sub-cloud layer is slowly saturating from virga, mainly west of I-55. Rain chances will increase after midnight for our western TAFs of PIA and SPI, and as far east as BMI later tonight. DEC and CMI will likely see a delay of steady rains until after sunrise tomorrow. High resolution guidance is pointing toward a band of steady rains affecting all TAF sites for around 4 to 6 hours tomorrow morning into early afternoon, before a cold front ushers dry air into Illinois from the west Monday afternoon. Scattered showers look to redevelop behind the main band of rain, mainly affecting our northern TAF sites along I-74. All rain should come to an end for PIA by 20z and at CMI by 23z-00z. During the rain, low MVFR or IFR clouds are expected, with visibility remaining MVFR for the most part during rain. Winds will be a concern throughout this TAF period, with gusty southeast winds to start the 06z TAFs. Gusts will increase shortly after midnight to 25KT at times. Winds are expected to become southerly by 12-13z, with gusts around 30KT Monday morning. A cold frontal passage Monday afternoon will cause winds to shift to the southwest, then the west Monday evening. Southwest gusts Monday afternoon could reach into the 25-30kt range, as cloud ceilings climb from IFR to MVFR. VFR cloud conditions are expected to develop from west to east later Monday afternoon into Mon evening. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Shimon