FXUS64 KHGX 190301 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1001 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 .UPDATE... EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FINALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ONLY ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED TO NEAR KSGR AND ESE OF HOUSTON WHERE FLS REMAINS IN EFFECT. DID HAVE SOME GOOD RAIN TOTALS WITH A COUPLE OF THE HCFCD GAGES SHOWING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS. STORM ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF KSGR SHOWING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL BUT FAIRLY ISOLATED STORM. KEPT SOME 30/40 POPS IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z AND THEN 20 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TOMORROW THINK POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/ DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION AVIATION... TSRA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERN SITES HAVE CLEARED OUT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND THE METRO AREA TAF SITES. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT LIES BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND SEABREEZE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS INLAND TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 38 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 75 94 75 95 75 / 30 30 10 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 80 90 81 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...39  FXUS64 KHGX 291505 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1005 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .UPDATE... Made tweaks to PoPs to better reflect radar trends, as well as bringing temperatures this morning better into line with the observations. Short range guidance suggests yet again today that highs should be cooler, but in the past couple days reality has ignored that and gone right on to meet the inherited forecast temperatures. So yet again will ignore that guidance and keep the forecast highs, and am comfortable that should work out well. As far as the flash flood watch is concerned, convective activity does appear to be holding well together much inland, and now even heavier rain appears to be having a tougher time holding on the coast. So, will pull the flash flood watch a bit earlier. Some locally heavier rain will still be possible, but probably not enough to justify the watch. The FLS in Brazoria County will stay, as MRMS CREST unit streamflow values are still elevated in the advisory area, and is near/slightly overlapping yesterday's flash flood warning area. && .MARINE... Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms over the Gulf this morning with tighter gradient/outflow near Galveston Bay so will be extending the SCEC for the Galveston Bay and eastern nearshore waters. Seas of 2-4 feet will continue through tonight and with the already elevated tide levels will likely see some nuisance flooding/overwash on highway 87 near High Island during high tide this afternoon. Winds relax noticeably Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016/ AVIATION... A bit of high pressure ridging inland has helped keep the majority of the rainfall along the coast. However, over the past hour showers have begun to develop south and west of Houston. Latest high resolution models show the potential for showers this morning. Best thunderstorm chances will be during the afternoon as the temperatures reach the convective potential. Best thunderstorm coverage will be from KHOU and KSGR south to the coast. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016/ DISCUSSION... Parts of the coast received between 3 and 9 inches of rain yesterday and another 1 to 3 inches early this morning. With a moisture axis extending east-west off of Galveston poised to enter SE TX, feel there is no choice but to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the coastal counties through the morning. Short term guidance which has performed rather poorly (so confidence not terribly high) is very bullish with rain this morning and the NMM, ARW and RAP producing another 2 to 4 inches along the coast. Precipitation should expand inland with daytime heating. Convective temps are between 85 and 87 degrees so coverage should increase inland during the aftn. Clouds and precip should keep max temps in the upper 80s. The precip is courtesy of a weak upper level low over the western Gulf. This feature will weaken further as it drifts SW. Pw values drop on Tuesday to around 2.00 inches from today's values of 2.20-2.30 inches. Convective temps on Tuesday also warm to around 89 degrees. Fcst soundings don't show much of a cap but forecast profiles look considerably drier with deeper moisture confined over the SW zones. Will begin to dry things out on Tuesday and taper PoPs from the highest over the SW and lower to the NE. An upper level ridge will develop Tuesday night over the central plains and expand southward through Thursday. Drier and warmer conditions are expected both Wed and Thursday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are showing what looks like a backdoor front slicing through the area from the NE on Friday afternoon. Will carry chance PoPS with the boundary serving as a focus and PW values peaking to 2.15 inches just ahead of the front. A weak upper level disturbance will approach SE TX from the east next weekend and could bring another chance of rain to SE TX by next Sunday. Temperatures look to be near seasonal normals next weekend. 43 MARINE... The combination of an area of showers and thunderstorms along with a fairly tight pressure gradient has led to caution conditions over Galveston Bay and the nearshore waters east of Freeport early this morning. Expect the winds to slowly diminish through the morning. However, thunderstorms will persist this afternoon and tonight due to an upper level system overhead and a surface trough along the coast. Moderate easterly winds will also help to drive tides to about a foot to 1.5 feet above normal. Some locations along the Gulf side of the coast may experience actual tides of around 3 feet today during times of high tide. The thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease Tuesday through the end of the week. Swells from tropical depression 9 as it moves into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should arrive into the Upper Texas coast during the mid week period - as of now actual forecasted seas on Tuesday and Wednesday are between 3 and 4 feet. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 74 92 75 93 / 50 20 30 10 20 Houston (IAH) 88 75 91 76 94 / 50 20 40 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 88 80 90 / 70 50 40 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Matagorda. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay. && $$ Discussion...25 Aviation/Marine...45  FXUS64 KHGX 270546 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1146 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017 .AVIATION... Storms moving in from the west have dissipated and a few showers continue near HOU in scattered swath to near JAS. Winds from the southeast 5-12 knots with MVFR CIGS filling in across the region. The WAA will continue throughout the night with a slow increase in LL moisture. CIGS should continue to lower most of the night and widespread CIGS of 1000-1500ft should be common before 12z. A few showers should still develop over the the northern areas through 10z...for now will carry VCSH for UTS. Some haze and light fog possible near the coast in the morning. A few showers possible tomorrow but with LLJ pulling away and the 850-700mb flow veering a little more to the SW and WSW agree that capping should get stronger limiting coverage and depth of SHRA. Near the coast in the late afternoon hours may see visibility lower as 70 dewpoints flow toward the coast traversing the cooler shelf waters but with enough mixing and drier air aloft to limit the fog thickness. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/ DISCUSSION... Made a few tweaks to the forecast for the rest of tonight...mainly to account for the ongoing POP trends. Speed convergence/WAA help- ing to produce scattered SHRA across the central/southern portions of the CWA this evening. Thunderstorms that developed near EWX/San Marcos earlier this evening are slowly making their way into SE TX at present, but are weakening. Rain chances are expected to remain in place for much of the region overnight, as a shortwave moves in from West TX. Highest POPS will be over our northern areas...based on the progged track of the disturbance...but the continued strong WAA could produce widely scattered SHRA elsewhere through sunrise. 41 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/ Dense high cloudiness atop lower cu cloud streets this afternoon as temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s. Southwestern warm and more moist air riding up and over the relatively cooler drier surface dome of air providing just enough gentle lift along the theta e surfaces to generate scattered light showers. Periods of light rain will will occur through tomorrow afternoon. The passage of a shortwave disturbance currently traveling into New Mexico and into the northern TX tonight may generate enough lift over central state to pop a few thunderstorms east of the I-35 corridor that would move east to northeast. These evening storms may clip the far northern counties of the forecast area...possibly with a rogue strong cell or two latter tonight into early Monday morning. If this shortwave can push parcels past a near 7-8H warm nose...there would be ample CAPE (in tandem with an exiting 30-40 kt low level jet) to set the stage for a more conducive strong convection scenario. Again...low chances for thunderstorms to mainly pass over the far northern counties generally north of a Brenham to Huntsville to Livingston line during the overnight hours. Mainly overcast and mild start to Monday morning with this continued warm air advection pattern keeping slight to low end rain chances in place over the northern CWA through the afternoon hours. Middle to upper 60 dew point air riding over slightly cooler shelf water in the middle 60s may allow maritime fog to develop...confidence in patchy fog/haze around Galveston Island and surrounding waters tonight. Despite the mostly cloudy and showery conditions...warmer mid-level flow pulling in moist air will equate to subsequent day warming back into the lower to middle 80s the next couple of days. A relatively uneventful Monday will lead to a stronger onshore wind day Tuesday...abnormally warm and cloudy with slight shower chances over the far interior. A passing northern CONUS upper trough will allow Rocky Mtn lee pressure to lower...the associated cold front will travel across the state early Wednesday. NWP has speed up the front from previous runs and now has the boundary passing through during the morning (daylight?) hours. Along or ahead of this front...mainly showers with embedded storms. The faster 84 hr NAM has a stout cap for the lift to contend with...the slower GFS has a more favorable profile to tap into in producing more thunder. A fast mover of a boundary so the main threats from any early Wednesday QLCS appears to be strong winds. The cool and dry backing air mass/High will scour out skies on Thursday and regulate daily warmth to the near normal upper 60s...afternoon humidities to fall into the 20s/30s. A couple of starry sky early mornings in the 40s Thursday and Friday. The next system coming down the pike is progged to affect the region next weekend. Broad low/open wave trough hanging back over western Mexico will set the stage for the development of a lower Texas coast surface trough. Better low level convergence and a disturbance or two passing through within the southwesterly flow (per ECMWF) has POPS up in the high end to likely category Sunday. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 81 65 83 63 / 50 30 10 30 30 Houston (IAH) 66 82 66 84 70 / 40 30 10 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 68 76 67 78 69 / 20 30 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 11 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...41 Aviation/Marine...45  FXUS64 KHGX 081201 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 601 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019 .AVIATION... Northern hub IFR decks with more southern terminals falling into LIFR ceilings this morning. Cloud thickness and surface winds too strong to allow any inland fog to form. Areas of sea fog are still present but not locally dense. An approaching upper trough will increase the late day into early Saturday chances for either drizzle or light showers. Southelry winds in the 15 knot range with a mid to late afternoon breakout to VFR. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019/ DISCUSSION... Skies remain cloudy across Southeast Texas early this morning. Elevated south winds are helping to keep temperatures from falling with 3 AM readings in the mid to upper 60s inland and in the low to mid 60s at the beaches. Some shower development can be expected today, and a round of showers/thunderstorms will be possible tonight through tomorrow morning. The greatest risk for any strong/severe storms is expected to be off to our north and northeast as a storm system and associated cold front moves across the Southern Plains. A more stable airmass in place on Saturday night should keep much of the area dry, but look for possible rain development again on Sunday with a front lingering around. Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the next several days as east to southeast winds strengthen and precipitable water values rise while the next storm system organizes out west. This system's cold front looks to bring a round of showers/thunderstorms across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. This front is currently expected to hold up across the area on Thursday resulting in a continued chance of rain. Above normal temperatures (especially overnight lows) can be expected until the end of next week. 42 MARINE... A persistent healthy onshore flow will occur through the day over average to 3 to 4 foot significant (Gulf) wave heights / slight bay chop. Periods of sea fog will be patchy at best with the greatest chances for more areawide dense sea fog development on Saturday night and lingering on into early next week. A northern storm system passage late Saturday will weaken winds and swing them east by Sunday night. These weaker easterlies will be conducive for the formation of evening and overnight early morning dense fog over the local bays and nearshore waters. Mid week southerlies are forecast to strengthen to Advisory levels ahead of the next Plains storm system. This system will pass off to the east by late Wednesday with the arrival of a reinforcing cold front a week from now on Friday. This front is anticipated to actually veer moderate to strong late week winds offshore. These Caution/Advisory level northerlies will continue well into next weekend. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 79 66 79 55 73 / 20 50 60 0 40 Houston (IAH) 77 67 79 62 75 / 40 30 40 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 69 64 69 63 69 / 40 20 20 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Matagorda Islands. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$ Discussion...42 Aviation/Marine...31