FXUS61 KGYX 290740 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 340 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...BRINGING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... COMPLEX FCST IN STORE FOR TODAY...AS WARM FNT LIFTS INTO THE CWFA FROM THE SW. THE EASY PART IS THAT WARM FNT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LIFT THRU NH TODAY...MEANING MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL ME WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SHWRS AND CLOUDS. THE POSITION OF THE WARM FNT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DEG OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL TO HOW THE REST OF THE FCST PLAYS OUT FOR MOST OF NH AND EXTREME WRN ME. THE FCST POSITION OF THE WARM FNT IS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO OUR W. MCS OVER CENTRAL NY HAS WEAKENED...WHILE A SECOND MCS IS CROSSING THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING ENE. THIS COMPLEX IS MOST CLOSELY TIED TO S/WV TROF...AND THUS SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME STRUCTURE INTO THE AREA THANKS TO MID LVL SPEED MAX. IT IS ON THE SRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS MCS WHERE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS FCST TO TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHICH WILL BE OF THE MOST CONCERN. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM12...HRRR...AND LOCAL WRF SUPPORT WARM FNT LIFTING TO ROUGHLY A LEB TO PSM LINE. TO THE S AND W OF THIS LINE...WARM TEMPS AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE BENEATH MID LVL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO NEAR 6.5 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES REACHING NEAR 1000 J/KG...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR STRONG TSTMS IN THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL SPEED MAX WILL PROVIDE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR NECESSARY FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH SHEAR WILL LARGELY BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUPPORTING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. IN THAT CASE UPDRAFTS WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL...WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER APPROACHING 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS SRN NH. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS FROM THESE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL THREAT WILL BE THAT OF AN ISOLD TORNADO. WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA...WIND SHIFT ACROSS THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF INCREASED HELICITY. ANY STORM NEAR THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A GREATER THREAT FOR MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...WITH A LLVL FOCUS FOR TORNADOGENESIS. THETA-E AXIS WILL ALSO EXTEND NWD THRU THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND INTERSECT THIS FEATURE...ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL. SPC HAS INCLUDE A 5 PERCENT RISK OF TORNADOES INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN NH. THIS WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON THE WARM FNT PLACEMENT...BUT THINK GREATER RISK LIES TO THE W WHERE CELLS HAVE MORE DIURNAL SUPPORT AND BETTER CHANCE AT BEING DISCRETE. SREF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE CAPITOL REGION OF NY THRU SRN VT AND NH INTO WRN MA AS THE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WX...AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT ON THE WARM FNT PLACEMENT WITHIN THIS ZONE. SPC WRF ALSO SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN NY THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING STRONG CELLS INTO WRN MA AND THRU SRN VT INTO NH. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE 4 KM NAM AS WELL. PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER...HAVE ADDED SEVERE TSTM WORDING TO THE SRN NH ZONES...ROUGHLY ALONG AND S OF A LEB TO PSM LINE. FROM N CENTRAL NH INTO SWRN ME HAVE ADDED SOME THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...BOTH OF THESE AREAS HAVE HEAVY RNFL WORDING...AS +2 SD PWAT AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 10 KFT. STRONG STORMS WILL WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG THERMODYNAMICS. RNFL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THRU THE AREA AS WARM FNT MARCHES NEWD. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... WARM FNT LIFTS THRU THE CWFA...BRINGING WITH IT A SUMMER TIME AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS...REACHING THE LOW 90S ACROSS SRN NH AND PARTS OF SWRN ME AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. H9 TEMP ANOMALIES WILL BE RUNNING 2 TO NEARLY 3 SD ABV NORMAL...SUPPORTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS. AT PWM THE RECORD HIGH OF 86...SET IN 2011...IS WITHIN REACH IF WINDS STAY MORE SWLY DURING THE DAY. CON SHOULD FALL A FEW DEG SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 95...SET MOST RECENTLY IN 1929. CERTAINLY MORE OF A HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID FEEL THAN RECENT DAYS HAVE SEEN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A HEALTHY GRADIENT OF SW WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WITH H8 TEMPS RUNNING AROUND +16C. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE SW GRADIENT. HOWEVER...THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS HINTING AT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKING INTO INTO NRN/CNTRL MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLN SEEMS UNLIKELY AS THE SW GRADIENT APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT MAKE NOT CROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO PUSH THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK TO CLEAR OUR CONDITIONS OUT. THE CANADIAN GEM IS IN A DIFFERENT CAMP...STALLING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...MUCH LIKE THE GFS ENSEMBLE. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS WARM FNT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR...WITH SCT IFR WILL BE PSBL IN SHRA/TSTMS THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS PSBL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR S. TSTMS WORK IN FROM THE W AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. SOME TSTMS MAY BE STRONG FROM KLEB...TO KCON...TO KPSM. LONG TERM... MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR. PREVAILING VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION ACROSS COLD WATER WILL MAKE MIXING DOWN STRONG GUSTS LESS LIKELY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT LATE TONIGHT. LONG TERM... WINDS AND WAVES AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DEVELOP SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. && .FIRE WEATHER... RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THAT TIME. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ LEGRO/JC  FXUS61 KGYX 041934 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 334 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...CUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL UPPER LOW HAVE DISSIPATED THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. AFTER DARK WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS WELL AS FULL CLEARING. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40...HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL SEE THEIR TEMPERATURES CRASH THE DEW POINTS AND FALL TO NEAR THE FROST POINT. HAVE THUS GONE WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS, NORTHERN OXFORD, NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SUNNY, LESS WINDY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INDICATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE JUST BEFORE 12 UTC THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE REGARDING THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SINCE YESTERDAY. DEVELOPING L/WV TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT SSWLY FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PATHWAY FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE NWD OUT OF THE SOUTH...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN ATLANTIC. AS LOW PRES LIFTS OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THAT WILL DETERMINE WHERE INITIAL RNFL WILL OCCUR THU INTO FRI...BEFORE THE STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES FRI INTO SAT. PWAT VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES...BASED ON LATEST GFS FORECASTS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...APPROACHING 2 SD. IN ADDITION...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL RISE TO NEARLY 14 KFT IS SRN ZONES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORCING THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RNFL FRI AND EARLY SAT. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SAT...WITH GFS LIFTING LOW PRES OUT WITH RAPID CLEARING W TO E FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REST OF MODEL GUIDANCE...NAM...ECMWF...UKMET...CMC...ARE ALL ADVERTISING LOW PRES NOT MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH UNTIL SAT...PROLONGING THE RNFL. GIVEN SATURATED SOILS...THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO COULD SPELL FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVY RNFL FROM THIS PAST SUN. THEREAFTER S/WV RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY QUIET WX DOWN...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VFR ALL AREAS. LONG TERM...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THU THRU EARLY SAT AS A PROLONGED RNFL EVENT IS LOOKING LIKELY. IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG TERM...SCA CONDS PSBL FRI NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES MOVING UP THE COAST. && .FIRE WEATHER...COOL AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS TO RETURN THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009. NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJEAN LONG TERM...LEGRO  FXUS61 KGYX 062211 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 611 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF ANDREA WILL MERGE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MARITIMES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN MAINE ARE FINALLY REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER STILL ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN FORECAST...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TS ANDREA MADE LANDFALL AROUND 5:40 PM JUST SOUTH OF STEINHATCHEE FL. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WX IS RATHER BENIGN TONIGHT...CONSIDERING THE FORECAST THAT FOLLOWS. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE CWFA THRU TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING...SO HAVE STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SATURATE WITH TIME...ALLOWING SHRA TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO PARTS OF NH AND NRN ME MTNS. EXPECT QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ***HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO SAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANTS OF ANDREA*** MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVELS SATURATE BY FRI MORNING...SO SHRA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...GRAY...AND DAMP IN ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA. FORECAST REALLY GOES DOWNHILL IN EARNEST FRI EVENING...AS SATURATION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALLOW A MUCH STEADIER RA TO DEVELOP. ATTM GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE. ECMWF...GFS...UKMET...AND CMC ALL TRACK THE LOW INVICINTY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL. THE NAM HAS BECOME A BIT OF A SE OUTLIER...AND ALSO SEEMS TO BE UNDER DOING QPF TO THE NW OF THE LOW CENTER. SREF MEMBERS SEEM TO BE LESS AFFECTED BY WHATEVER IS AILING THE OPERATIONAL NAM RUN. AS SUCH...USED BLENDING OF THE ECMWF...PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND SREF FOR TIMING. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...PWAT VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF NH AND ME. THESE VALUES REPRESENT AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AT GRAY, ME. IN ADDITION...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEARLY 14 KFT...IF NOT HIGHER ON THE 06/12Z GFS...BY SAT MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI AND LAST INTO EARLY SAT...THANKS TO STRONG LLJ AT H9 AND H8. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF THE 06/12Z GEFS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WITH ALMOST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE E ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL FIRSTLY HELP TRANSPORT THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS NWD. SECONDLY THE ELY FLOW WILL HELP FORCE THIS AIR INLAND AND AGAINST THE HIGH TERRAIN...WHILE ALSO IMPINGING ON THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AT H9 THROUGH H8. THIS TYPE OF LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP WARM CLOUDS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES...WITH SOME VERY HIGH RATES POSSIBLE. LATEST SREF PLUMES AT PORTLAND SHOW A MEAN OF ABOUT 1.90 INCHES...WITH CONCORD COMING IN CLOSER TO 2.25. 06/09Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF 2 INCHES IN 24 HRS ARE AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY SRN NH AND SWRN ME. THOUGH IT WILL RAIN FOR LONGER THAN 24 HRS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z SAT. LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST QPF FOR THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA HAVE A STRIPE OF 2 PLUS INCHES ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF WRN ME...APPROACHING 3 INCHES OVER THE SEACOAST OF NH. PRECIPITATION TOTALS QUICKLY DROP OFF AS YOU HEAD NW...WITH AROUND 1 INCH IN THE NRN MTNS. EXPECT THAT STRONG ELY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING A SECONDARY MAX IN QPF JUST SE OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH NERFC GUIDANCE...SO USED THESE QPF GRIDS AS A STARTING POINT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT FOR THE SERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA. FOR THE AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RA...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH...AS THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO RAPID RIVER RISES ALONG WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. GROUND REMAINS QUITE SATURATED IN THIS REGION...SO RUNOFF WILL BE EFFICIENT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE REMAINS OF ANDREA PASS OVER THE CAPE COD CANAL AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO SOLUTION WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ABNORMALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO PRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOW SOME EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRANSITIONS FROM A WARM CORE SYMMETRIC TO A COLD CORE ASYMMETRIC LOW PRESSURE AREA. RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE FOOTHILLS REGION. GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. AFTER A BREAK ON SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER AND SHRA WORK EWD OUT OF NY STATE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA FRI...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING. ALONG COAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES CLOSEST APPROACH. LONG TERM... WE WILL BE ENTERING A WET PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. CIGS/VSBY MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN THE PCPN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT AS THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA WILL PASS TO OUR S. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE REMAINS OF ANDREA. ALTHOUGH NO HYDROLOGIC FORECAST POINTS GO INTO FLOOD...WITH RECENT RAINS...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED FLOOD PROBLEMS OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL AND THIS GAVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE CONWAY AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO A SECOND MAX OF 2.5-3.0 INCHES WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST NH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOADED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE...SO ANY TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD PRESENT LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES...HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS HOISTED. .RIP CURRENTS... THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATE RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE REMAINS OF ANDREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ012-013-018>021-023>026. NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NHZ004>010-013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ LEGRO/JC UPDATE...HANES  FXUS61 KGYX 071921 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 321 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF ANDREA WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL REACH THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND WILL STALL OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE NEXT 12 HRS...AS THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. A SIGNIFICANT RNFL EVENT IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THE TRACK AND HEAVY RNFL FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF ANDREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE HIGH PWAT AIR MASS BRUSHING COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING 2 INCH TOTALS INTO COASTAL AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. BASED ON THE PWM/GYX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 1948...THIS WOULD REPRESENT NEARLY RECORD AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SREF MEAN QPF VALUES HAVE INCREASED SINCE 05/09Z RUNS...BY NEARLY 0.50 INCHES. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HRS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO NEARLY 70 PERCENT ACROSS SRN NH AND SWRN ME. THIS INCREASE IN PROBABILITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THE LAST THREE MODEL CYCLES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPRESS WITH WIND FIELDS AS WELL. WHILE SFC WINDS MAY NOT BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...ALOFT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. STRONG LOW AND MID LVL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE INTO CENTRAL SRN NEW ENGLAND. COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SET UP JUST INLAND FROM THE WATER...AND MAY ALREADY BE EVIDENT WITH MID/UPR 50S DEW POINTS MOVING WWD. ATTM THE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING FROM KBDL...TO KMHT...TO BETWEEN KSFM AND KPSM. LLVL ELY FLOW WILL BE FORCED UP OVER THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE MID LVL FNT...CREATING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU A WELL SATURATED LAYER. DESPITE A COOL DAY AT THE SFC...A DISTINCTLY MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL RESIDE JUST ALOFT...CREATING WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 14 KFT FOR SRN ZONES. THIS DEEP WARM CLOUD COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT LLVL FORCING...FROM THE FNT AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL PRODUCE EFFICIENTLY HEAVY RNFL. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...HAVE SIDED WITH THE MORE MESOSCALE MODELS FOR QPF. WHILE THE NAM12 IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH WIDESPREAD 4 INCH TOTALS...THE AXIS OF HEAVY PCPN IS FAVORED. ALL DAY ANDREA HAS TRACKED A LITTLE WWD OF FORECAST...AND DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO HUG THE COASTLINE W OF YESTERDAY/S FORECAST. AS SUCH...HAVE SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVY PCPN FOR THE GYX CWFA JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS MATCHED WELL WITH NERFC GUIDANCE...SO USED THAT AS A STARTING POINT. HAVE ADDED SOME ADDITIONAL QPF FOR STRONG NE UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. THE RESULT IS A STRIPE OF 2.5 TO 3.3 INCHES OF RNFL FROM SRN NH INTO SWRN ME...ROUGHLY A KCON TO KLEW LINE. A SECONDARY MAX OF NEAR 3 INCHES IS ALSO FORECAST INVOF KIZG TO NEAR KLCI. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE MIDCOAST...AS 2 INCH TOTALS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY LEAD TO FLOODING THERE AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS AS PREVIOUS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS LOW PRES PASSES E OF THE CWFA...NW FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE COAST AND ADJACENT INTERIOR BY SAT AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...WITH TEMPS SNEAKING INTO THE 70S IN THE FAR SRN ZONES. UPSLOPE SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK TROFING HANGS OVER THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDS CALM DOWN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ANDREA. A VERY WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MTNS. BY MONDAY...A LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO ENTER THE REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. A TSTM IS PSBL OVER WRN NH WHERE SOME INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...EACH DAY WILL FEATURE SCT SHOWERS WITH THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR ANY PCPN BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN - DURING THE AFTN HRS. THIS WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORKWEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS HEAVY RNFL WORKS NWD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR WITH SCT LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT. CONDS IMPROVE GRADUALLY TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRES PULLS E. MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER LONGER IN THE MTNS AS NW FLOW TAKES OVER SAT. LONG TERM... IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTRW...CONDS MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE PERSISTENT JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THEREFORE...CONDS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR AT TIMES. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND CONTINUES INTO SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLIER IN THE BAYS...BUT THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO TO SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. LONG TERM... SEAS LINGER AT OR ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OF 5 FT...MOSTLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS...SUNDAY THEN DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS. MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS BELOW SCA LEVELS...THOUGH GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT SCA THRESHOLD OVER THE OPEN WATERS LATE TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE...BEFORE ABRUPTLY ENDING BY MID MORNING OVER NH AND LATE MORNING IN MAINE. EXPECT A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA OF SRN ME/SRN NH. A SECOND AREA OF HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE EAST FACING HILL TOWNS. SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. URBAN AREAS MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. && .CLIMATE... THE SPRING SEASONAL CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR PORTLAND /PWMCLSPWM/, GRAY /PWMCLSGYX/ AND CONCORD /PWMCLSCON/ WERE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GYX && .RIP CURRENTS... THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATE RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA ON SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ012>014-018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NHZ004>010-013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ LEGRO/JC  FXUS61 KGYX 122255 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 655 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...AND WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 650 PM...SOME TWEAKS FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO SHOW LOWERS POPS IN THE S WHERE MID-UPPR LVL RIDGING IS STILL HOLDING ON TO OUR E...AND SHUNTING THE BEST FORCING TO THE NA ND E AND INTO THE NRN ZONES...WHERE SHRA AND OCCNL RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT. ADJUSTED MINS A BIT TOO...AS THEY WILL ONLY DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW...GENERALLY STUCK IN THE 50S. ALSO MADE A FEW CHANGES TO TOMORROW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. PREVIOUSLY...AN AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW YORK STATE AND UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE 500 RIDGE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL INITIALLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS BUT A THE RIDGE MOVES EAST WILL SEE PRECIPITION MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 645 PM...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY COME IN AROUND AN INCH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMTS IN CONVECTION OF 2+ INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED...AND THAT WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT BACK BUILDING...DESPITE POTENTIAL GIVEN SSE LOW LVL JET. HOWEVER...PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH APPROACHES 12K FT...SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO TAP. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION...AND SLOWER MOVING CELLS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. PREVIOUSLY...WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST BUT EXPECT IT WILL NOT GET THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. LOTS OF WARM MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT AND COINCIDE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME HEAVIER RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FNT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANY REMAIN SHRA WILL END FIRST HALF OF SAT...WITH SKIES CLEARING RAPIDLY FROM W TO E. HIGH PRES THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL THRU MON. AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES E OF THIS AREA...WARMER AIR WILL BE ALLOWED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...AS MEAN TROF AXIS SETS UP OVER THE WRN CONUS AND BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS CHANGE IN HEIGHT PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHRA/TSTMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT MOST DAYS. THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING...SUBTLE S/WV FEATURES. DIFFICULT FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO PIN DOWN...ESPECIALLY SINCE MANY OF THESE WILL BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BY MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDWEST. THE CWFA IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AS THEY MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SPC MARS PRODUCT ALSO SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER TSTM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THUNDER THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS FROM TUE THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...ANY REMAINING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SAT MORNING WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SAT. && .FIRE WEATHER... WET WEATHER WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES ON AREA RIVERS AS THEY ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ151. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KGYX 130746 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 346 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SFC WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. WITH A MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS OVERUNNING THIS FRONT WE EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. EARLY ON THIS MORNING...THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH GOING ON AS SFC RIDGING WILL RELEGATE SENSIBLE WX TO A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING. IT/LL FIRST DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN NORTHWARD FROM THERE THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COOL DOME. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST SCT THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY HIGH SIDE. THEREFORE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF /FOR NOW/ GIVEN THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AREN/T OVERLY WET AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH CELLS WILL BE MOVING ALONG. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART OUR CWA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING OUR EVENING HOURS LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AS SFC FRONT HUGS OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER AND THE COASTLINE. COULD STILL BE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF OCCLUSION FROM THE WEST. OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT WILL BE HANGING OUT ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME...IT/S LIKELY THAT WE/LL HAVE A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT HIGHER ON SATURDAY THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT....BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BEG IN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT PERHAPS KICKING OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LITTLE IN WAY OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE WILL CAP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE MAIN THREAT. EXPECT RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVELS BUT STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET. REMAINDER OF NIGHT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO HANG ON OVER THE REGION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 5-8 FT. LONG TERM...SCA'S MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...NO CONCERNS. && .HYDROLOGY...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .COASTAL FLOODING...SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT /AROUND MIDNIGHT/ WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ151. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...EKSTER  FXUS61 KGYX 131326 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 926 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 925AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO REORGANIZE HOURLY POP FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST MAINE. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY... BUT WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH... A WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED A LINE OF MORE INTENSE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND IS DRIFTING NORTH. TIMING OF THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 11 AM AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER TO THE WEST... AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS IS MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY AROUND 1 PM... TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE MAINE STATE LINE BY AROUND 4 PM... AND FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. IT IS THIS AREA OF RAIN THAT WILL BRING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS... BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS LOW. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS AIR MASS... WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY NOTED... BUT WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ACROSS A THICK PORTION OF THE TROPOSPHERE... IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. BUT OTHERWISE THIS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. 630 AM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS WELL AS RECENT MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT. PREVIOUSLY... SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH A MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS OVERRUNNING THIS FRONT WE EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY. EARLY ON THIS MORNING...THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH GOING ON AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL RELEGATE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING. IT WILL FIRST DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN NORTHWARD FROM THERE THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COOL DOME. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY HIGH SIDE. THEREFORE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF /FOR NOW/ GIVEN THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVERLY WET AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH CELLS WILL BE MOVING ALONG. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING OUR EVENING HOURS LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AS SURFACE FRONT HUGS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND THE COASTLINE. COULD STILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF OCCLUSION FROM THE WEST. OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT WILL BE HANGING OUT ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME...IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT HIGHER ON SATURDAY THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT....BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BEG IN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT PERHAPS KICKING OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LITTLE IN WAY OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE WILL CAP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE MAIN THREAT. EXPECT RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVELS BUT STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET. REMAINDER OF NIGHT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO HANG ON OVER THE REGION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 5-8 FT. LONG TERM...SCA'S MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...NO CONCERNS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE  FXUS61 KGYX 300658 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 258 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY...BEFORE PASSING OUT TO SEA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ATTM...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES HAS SLIPPED EWD...ALLOWING SWLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR TODAY. SHOULD SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS A NOTABLE UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS MAKING THINGS A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE WATER. DESPITE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN PASSING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THRU IT THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING IS SUBTLE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSTMS...BUT DO EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. HRRR AND HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS THOUGHT AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS FUEL...BUT FLOW IS QUITE WEAK WITHIN THE RIDGE. SO ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RNFL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE SLOW STORM MOTIONS...AS PWAT VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. IN ADDITION WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FAIRLY LOW...NOT APPROACHING 10 KFT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TONIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GROWING INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING COASTAL FOG/STRATUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. I FEEL THAT NWP MAY BE RUSHING THINGS JUST A BIT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DON/T APPROACH ZERO UNTIL TUE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR BETTER FOG CHANCES THEN. WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WHERE RH VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 95 PERCENT OVER THE WATERS. TRIPLE H KIND OF DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE. SW FLOW WARM SPOTS OF SRN NH ESPECIALLY SHOULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL ADD TO THE DISCOMFORT. ALSO HAVE LESS POP TUE THAN TODAY. CWFA SHOULD BE FIRMLY WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE BY THEN...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. FARTHER W IN NY STATE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND THIS COULD SPILL OVER INTO WRN ZONES AS IT DECAYS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SCATTERED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY THURSDAY...00Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OUR REGION. THIS INCREASES POPS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DURING THIS PACKAGE UPDATE. ON FRIDAY...A SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST EURO MODEL RUN DEEPENS THIS LOW RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES TO OUR EAST. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER SWELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO ENHANCED RIP RISK. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU TUE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING COASTAL FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA OR TSRA...ESPECIALLY THU INTO EARLY FRI. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SW FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. COLD WATER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT A SHALLOW INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT ANY GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THRU TUE...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY BY TUE. LONG TERM...SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF WILL SET UP LONG DURATION SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WIND FETCH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FEET. LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY ARRIVE WITH AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ LEGRO/JC  FXUS61 KGYX 141838 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 238 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A LARGER...BROAD WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. CURRENT PATTERN: SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD AS OF THIS WRITING WITH ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTING VARYING AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...STILL A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DRY LLEVEL AIRMASS /PWATS SUB 0.5"/ AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COMBINING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON...ALBEIT A GOOD DEAL COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS GIVEN A WEAK LLEVEL GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR ROBUST SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. CHANGES ARE IN THE WORKS...HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE TO IT/S WEST TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE REGION. THROUGH THIS EVENING...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE /NOTE RHS DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE-NH THIS AFTERNOON/ WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNSET UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE OVERHEAD H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WITH THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MARCHING EAST. INITIALLY...45-50KT WESTERLY LLJ WILL AID IN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT /PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES/ WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ PROMPTING ONGOING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM 90KT 1.5PVU JET MAX WILL PROVIDE ASSISTANCE IN ASCENT AS WELL...SO HAVE NO TROUBLE FOLLOWING MULTI-HIGH RES MODEL CONSENSUS OF RAIN REACHING SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...WITH SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS SOUTHERN MAINE BY DAYBREAK. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...LLEVEL DRY AIR TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THUNDER: SEE LITTLE TO NO THUNDER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL OUTRUNNING ANY INSTABILITY /EVEN ELEVATED/. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY. PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BOARDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA. INITIAL CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE HERE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVITY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AS WE AWAIT AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. MONDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL STUBBORN TO DISPLACE...WHICH SUGGESTS AN INTERESTING EVOLUTION TO THE RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING. THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND THE ARRIVING LLJ FROM THE WEST WILL PROMPT AN IMPRESSIVE FGEN RESPONSE OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING...WITH A CONCURRENT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY /RATHER THAN WESTERLY/ JET BETWEEN CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SURFACE LOW OVER NEW YORK AND THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HIGH OVER MARITIME CANADA. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EXPECT RAIN TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THE FGEN RESPONSE WILL HELP RETARD PRECIPITATION MOTION TO THE EAST...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY JET ALSO HELPING TO "PULL" ACTIVITY SOUTH RATHER THAN EAST WITH TIME. MODELS DIVERGE ON JUST HOW FAR EAST ACTIVITY MAKES IT...WITH THE 12Z GFS FAVORING ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...WITH THE NAM KEEPING MUCH OF MAINE DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THE ECMWF/RGEM HAVING MORE OF A NAM FLAVOR...WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION...TAPERING POPS OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. LIKE INHERITED TEMPERATURE FORECAST /WHICH WILL BE TRICKY/ THAT KEEPS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE NEAR 60...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING /MID-UPPER 60S/ IN THE DRIER CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST. QPF: FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE DO SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 12KFT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ. SREF MEAN COMES IN JUST BELOW ONE INCH FOR CON-EEN-ASH WITH AMOUNTS RAPIDLY TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THE SETUP AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME MINOR FLOOD ISSUES IF THIS MATERIALIZES. THUNDER: THUNDER AGAIN LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...WITH SREF PROBABILITIES AND DETERMINISTIC NAM PROGS SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY HITTING A BRICK WALL TO OUR WEST AS THE LLEVEL RIDGING STANDS FIRM DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE A RUMBLE OR TWO OVER SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...BUT EVEN FEEL THAT THIS IS UNLIKELY. MONDAY NIGHT...LLEVEL RIDGING FINALLY GIVES WAY ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO FINISH OVERSPREADING THE AREA. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN DURING THE MORNING...SO EXPECT ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY TO BE MUCH LIGHTER...MORE LIKELY TAKING THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AGAIN SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. 12Z MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN AREA OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR THE SHORELINE. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A MUCH MORE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS TO REACH MHT/CON/LEB BY MONDAY MORNING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR RESTRICTIONS TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TERMINALS AS SHOWERS FINALLY PUSH INTO MAINE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT-VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS FOR THE MORNING MONDAY. LLWS: SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 1-2KFT LAYER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVANCE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION IN THE LEB TAF IN THIS PACKAGE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL AT HIE-CON-MHT AS WELL. LONG TERM...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRAS AND POSSIBLE TSRAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND THIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS/SEAS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS THURSDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ARNOTT/JC  FXUS61 KGYX 160727 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 327 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN HOLD OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS CREATED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COASTAL STRATUS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS LAYER BEING CAPPED BY DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND BEING REPLACED WITH WAA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALSO OCCURRING. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS THOUGH...SO WILL JUST REMOVE THEM FROM THE FORECAST. CIG GUIDANCE FROM THE NARRE AND SREF SUGGEST GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE...AS CLOUD HEIGHTS LIFT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. AS USUAL...EXPECT THE LAST AREAS TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE MIDCOAST. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SUN TODAY...BUT THINNING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSOLATION TO REACH THE 70S OR VERY NEAR IT IN MOST AREAS. THE QUESTION REMAINS REGARDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION HOWEVER. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC...SO WE WILL NEED SOME REAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO ALLOW FOR ANY INSTABILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROF. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF TSTMS INITIATING ACROSS ERN NY AND MOVING EWD INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG ALOFT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS AS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT TO BE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO NOTED IS THE DEEP MOISTURE...PWAT FORECASTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. EVEN WITHOUT WIDESPREAD TSTMS...ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME HEAVY RNFL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING CAN OCCUR. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD TSTM ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LATE THIS EVENING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS NRN ZONES...SO HAVE TRENDED POP BACK UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE AFTER 00Z. EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE COAST IN A COHERENT WAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GRADIENT KEEPING THINGS PARTIALLY MIXED OVERNIGHT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN WED...HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP THE AREA MAINLY IN THE 70S. WEAK GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO COOL THE COASTAL ZONES BACK INTO THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...AS THE FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL MUCH OF THE TIME. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN IMPULSE WILL RACE EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE UNSETTLE WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD NEAR COAST STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THRU MORNING. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AND CIGS WILL LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOST GRADUAL FARTHER E TOWARDS RKD. WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR CIGS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY AS WELL. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE TODAY...WITH SHRA AND TSRA ALONG IT. TSRA MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT AND WED. LONG TERM... THU PM - FRI AM...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND SEAS WILL BUILD BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM... THU NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. SAT NIGHT - SUN...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...SCHWIBS AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHWIBS MARINE...LEGRO/SCHWIBS  FXUS61 KGYX 220710 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 310 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...PROMPTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING HUMID AND SEASONABLY WARM. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS UPON REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY HAS SHIFTED INTO MAINE AND IS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY. CONVECTION IS STILL ONGOING OVER THE CAPITOL DISTRICT WITH TRAINING CELLS. FLOODING IS OCCURRING FARTHER UPSTREAM INTO PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WHERE AS MUCH AS 5" OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THIS GIVES AS IDEA OF THE KIND OF ATMOSPHERE WE ARE IN AT THE MOMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CELLS. MANY SITES RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. AS IT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNNY SKIES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE NOW SPINNING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PUSH NORTH SUNDAY. MOISTURE COMING OFF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL FEED INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SPARK MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL TRANSLATE NORTH ALONG WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AREAWIDE WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY. PATTERN SUMMARY: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PRIMARY STORY FROM A PATTERN PERSPECTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT NOAM AS WELL AS WEST THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC BASIN. THE RESULT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NOAM. BEFORE THIS PATTERN REALIGNMENT OCCURS...WE/LL START THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CYCLONIC GYRE STILL LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST WITH DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUING TO BRUSH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY BE PUNTED EAST AS GREAT LAKES TROUGHING DEEPENS AND NEARS FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE RATHER SLOW AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ARGUING FOR AN EXTENDED UNSETTLED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE PERIOD ENDS WITH A TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE NORTHEASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. GUIDANCE TRENDS: NOT SURPRISINGLY...WITH THE PATTERN AMPLIFYING THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWING OF THE ARRIVAL OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST...DELAYING THE RETURN TO DRIER AIR. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK TO SEE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. THE DETAILS... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WE/LL STILL BE IN THE GRIPS OF AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE AND QUIESCENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO BE IMPACTED BY GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW /AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION/ WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH NEW YORK. FLOW ALOFT HAS A DIFFLUENT COMPONENT...BUT H5 FLOW REMAINS 20KTS OR BELOW THROUGH THE DAY. SREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MODEST MLCAPES /250-750 J/KG/ BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF MEMBERS IN THE 1000+ J/KG RANGE. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING MARINE INFLUENCE. PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WOULD /AGAIN/ BE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL WARM CLOUD DEPTHS /10KFT/...PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND VERY SHORT CORFIDI VECTORS GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. DYNAMIC FORCING LOOKS TO INCREASE AS WE REACH TUESDAY WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVERHEAD AS BOWLING BALL AT H5 INCHES EAST...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW REACHING 30KTS DURING THE DAY. STILL...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE RATHER MARGINAL AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENSURING ONLY SKINNY CAPE. GIVEN THE IMPROVED DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE COLLOCATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE GREATER THAN ON MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POP MENTION. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE CELLS...PARTICULARLY IF WE CAN ACHIEVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN EXPECTED...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THE PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE STALLED FORCING MECHANISM AND STILL SUBSTANTIAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO HANG YOUR HAT ON IN TERMS OF LLEVEL FORCING. LLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITHOUT SOMETHING TO FOCUS IT ALONG...WITH INSTABILITY SUFFERING AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE/NO THREAT OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES OUR RELUCTANT COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH MODEST DRYING IN IT/S WAKE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS IS STILL DELAYED JUST A BIT BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS...BUT WILL TRANSITION THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH WOULD SHIFT FORECAST CONCERNS TO AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES: AMPLE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE PROMOTE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LLEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AROUND 1 SIGMA ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE FALLING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARDS THE COAST WITH CONTINUED MARINE LAYER CLOUD IMPACTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALL LOCATIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF AUGUST...WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MURKY FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE COAST. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENCOURAGE STRATUS AND FOG THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME BREAKS FOR SUN AND INCREASING CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY INCLUDING KLEB...KCON...AND KHIE. OTHER SITES ARE ON THE WARM MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT... PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONGOING IMPACTS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE THREAT OF OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH DAYTIME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WANING OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND THEN WASHES OUT NEAR THE WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS RAMP UP ON SUNDAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA HOWEVER. LONG TERM...WINDS APPEAR RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE RESPONSIBLE FOR SWELL NEARING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT NEAR TERM...HANES SHORT TERM...HANES LONG TERM...ARNOTT AVIATION...ARNOTT/HANES MARINE...ARNOTT/HANES  FXUS61 KGYX 162109 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 409 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure arrives late tonight and tomorrow. With exceptionally cold air already in place, expect the bulk of the precipitation to fall in the form of snow. Several inches of accumulation are possible before the snow finally changes over to rain or freezing rain late Saturday. Temperatures will continue to rise through the overnight on Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Expect all locations on Sunday to see only rain as temperatures warm to near 50 degrees near the coast and into the upper 30s over the mountains. High pressure builds in for early next week with dry weather expected through at least Wednesday.. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Snow starting after midnight and toward daybreak is pretty much a given for tonight, so, the biggest question will be how much, if any, rad cooling we get this evening. Any rad cooling will be during the first part of the evening as winds die off briefly, and only thin cirrus moves through. Forecast is for temps to cool a few degrees, especially in the eastern zones, but if some sheltered areas, even near the coast decouple early, they could drop down near zero or below, and stay down there for a few hours. Otherwise look for the cirrus to move in this evening with the snow arriving 07-09Z in the CT vly. but closer to 12Z across ME. An inch or so of accums can be expected by morning in southern and western NH. Temps will begin to creep up after midnight, so lows will be this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Forecast thinking has not really changed all that much for this system although the models are now indication two non-phasing systems moving through ahead of the large scale upper level trough. First one will be fast moving low pressure passing pretty much right over the CWA, which should produce a decent burst of mid-lvl WAA which will fall as mostly snow during the day Sat. Accums look to fall in the 3-5" range with some localized 6" amounts especially in the foothills and S-SE upslope areas of the mountains. Temps will gradually rise during the day, but will likely stay below freezing everywhere but the immediate coastline, and probably only in the mid-coast. This will mean some sleet and freezing rain moving into srn NH and coastal ME late in the day. Since the models now showing two systems, will see a little but of N flow behind the first low, and this will reinforce the cold air in many areas Sat evening. Precip will be light and intermittent overnight, and may see some FZDZ, so ice accums will be less than tenth of an inch most places. As the first low moves out, and more significant low with trailing cold front approaches from the west, SW flow will pick up, and this should help speed up the warming at the surface after midnight, which raise temps to above freezing in all but the northeastern zones by daybreak. Srn and coastal MAine could see temps nearing 40 by Sunday morning. The chance for showers will begin to increase in the western zones late as cold front nears. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sunday morning starts with strong southerly flow advecting warm air into the region. Low pressure will be centered over southern Quebec with a cold front extending south through New York state and Pennsylvania. Surface temperatures starting in the upper 30s to around 40 will continue to warm to near 50 degrees at the coast, and into the upper 30s to around 40 even as far inland as the mountains. Cold front will drag fairly widespread rain showers across the region by Sunday afternoon before exiting the coast by Sunday night. Cold air advection and a fairly strong pressure gradient will generate gusty winds Sunday night. By Monday morning though, the cold air will have bottomed out and high pressure will have moved over northern New England. Even though temperatures on Sunday will be well above normal, by Monday morning they will have dropped back into the lower teens along the coast to the negative single digits in the mountains. High pressure will dominate the weather through Wednesday, although weak systems will continue to move across southern Canada throughout the period. If the pattern were to shift a little bit more to the south, then we could see an extended period of nuisance type snow showers. As of right now though, it appears as though any snow should stay north of the border. The pattern does look like it should shift a bit further south on Thursday though, with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes generating some precipitation well out ahead it over New England. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday night/...VFR holds through the midnight hours, but conditions deteriorate from west to east in the pre-dawn reaching IFR by Sat morning. Extended period of IFR through Sat night, with LIFR probably at times Sat night. Also FZRA/PL expected Saturday night. Long Term...Expect IFR/MVFR Sunday morning. Some fog may be possible early Sunday morning as warm air moves over whatever snowpack may be left by that time. Otherwise, cigs and vsbys will drop to MVFR as rain showers move through the region. High pressure builds over the region for Sunday through Wednesday with mainly VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday night/...Currently the waters are mainly below SCA levels. MAy seem S flow pick up and approach SCA winds during the day Sat, with building seas as well, and will likely need SCA Sat night in SW flow. Long Term...Will likely need a Small Craft Advisory or a Gale Warning Sunday night and Monday as gusty northwest winds develop behind a passing cold front. No other flags expected during this timeframe. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for NHZ001>015. MARINE...None. && $$ Cempa/Pohl  FXUS61 KGYX 011927 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 327 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north through the region tonight and Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night and will cross the region on Friday. High pressure will build in from the west Friday night and Saturday. A warm front will approach from the southwest Saturday night and will lift north through the region on Sunday. A cold front will push in from the west on Monday with high pressure following on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW/... A weak area of low pressure will intensify and move northeast up the St lawrence river valley overnight. As it does it will push a warm front north through our area. Light rain is already reported to our west in New York and these showers are expected to move into the region. With the relatively dry low levels it will take a bit for the showers to hit the ground. As the showers and southerly flow take hold overnight expect to see thickening clouds. Along the coast low stratus and fog is expected by morning where the flow will be directly off the water. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As the low pressure moves up the St lawrence we'll see showers along the international border through the day on Thursday. A few showers may make it as far south as the southern border of the forecast area but have kept the heaviest amounts north of the notches. Even these amounts will be modest, with about a half inch total across Coos and northern Oxford and Franklin counties. Even with the recent rainfall this will not be enough to cause any sort of flooding concern. As far as temperatures have leaned a bit on the colder side through Maine as the onshore flow should keep most of the coastal plain socked in. Have not included any drizzle at this point but there is some potential for drizzle right along the coast. Meanwhile in southern New Hampshire the southerly flow should be a bit warmer and thus left highs in the upper 60s for this area. The cold front will cross the region on Friday. This will be a more classic font with a brief period of showers and wind shift to northwest. Winds may increase to as much as 20kts behind the front with northwesterly flow setting in behind it. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain overhead on Saturday with chilly northerly breezes during the day. Afternoon highs will only reach the 40s in the north and mountains during this cold air advection day with 50s in the south. A warm front will approach from the west Saturday night. However the surface high will allow for cold air damming to continue in a chilly east to northeast flow. There will be scattered showers that will expand northward during the night. By Sunday, a strong southerly flow will allow for ample moisture across the region. Showers will be likely over the elevated terrain in the proximity of the warm front. The showers will linger into Monday as the front approaches Maine and New Hampshire from the west. There may be sufficient slantwise instability above the surface to allow for an isolated rumble of thunder during the day. On Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure will build in from the west. However, there may still be an outside chance for a brief shower as the flow remains cyclonic aloft. Low pressure will pass well to our south on Wednesday. However there may sufficient moisture for a period of very light rain. Temperatures by Wednesday night may be cool enough to allow a little wet snow to mix in over the mountains and foothills. && .AVIATION /19Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...A warm front will lift north through the region late tonight. High cirrus running ahead of the low will gradually thicken and lower as the front approaches with ceilings becoming MVFR by morning. Have included some LLWS in the CT river valley as the low approaches tonight, due mostly to the calm surface conditions. Through the day on Thursday look for showers in the mountains with MVFR clouds. Along the coast, have generally lowered both ceilings and visibilities below guidance as onshore flow will likely result in IFR ceilings and fog along the immediate coastline including PWM RKD and PSM. Further inland a brief period of IFR near sunrise will come to and end by mid morning. The trailing cold front will cross the region on Friday with a brief period of gusts to 25kts possible right as the front moves through. Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Friday night through Saturday night. IFR/LIFR ceilings developing on Sunday as low level moisture pulls in off the Gulf of Maine. These conditions will continue on Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA in place for this evening through tomorrow in southeasterly flow in the warm sector. Water temperatures remain in the mid 50s, nearly identical to the air temperatures and should mean the lower levels are neutral in terms of stability allowing the winds to mix down. There will be a brief lull in winds before we see SCA conditions once again pick up late Friday under CAA on the backside of the front. Long Term...SCA threshold expected to be exceeded on Monday in a southerly gradient as a cold front approaches from the west. && .HYDROLOGY...The Suncook River at North Chichester, NH continues to slowly fall late this afternoon. Have updated the FLS to reflect recent stage values. May be able to discontinue this warning by early this evening. Additional QPF over the next two days will not be sufficient to cause any renewed flooding. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Cannon