FXUS63 KGRR 260730 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS HEADED TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE LOW WE/LL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. DECENT DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON TO CLARE LINE. PRETTY STRONG DPVA COUPLED WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...A 30 KT LLJ...AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 45 KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVER THE NRN CWA. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT TODAY. AS PWATS CLIMB TO AN INCH AND A HALF THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS TOO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WE/LL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS TOO...THIS TIME EAST OF US-127. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE ERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL HAVE A NARROW WINDOW WHERE SOME STRONG DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/LI/S NEAR -4C/BULK SHEAR 35-40 KTS WILL BE AIDED BY THE COLD POOL AT H5 MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN LAKE DELTA T/S IN THE UPPER TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COME TO AN END ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM SUPPORTING IT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST. THAT WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. WHAT SHOULD FOLLOW IS AT LEAST 24 HOURS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THAT IT IS ANY ONES GUESS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT CANADIAN SYSTEM CAN DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY THERE IS AN OMEGA BLOCK FROM THE BERING SEA EASTWARD ACROSS ALASKA. THAT ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH TIME AND BY SUNDAY IT WOULD SEEM THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA (WEST SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK) TRIES TO PHASE WITH A SYSTEM NORTH OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN PHASES TWO JET STREAKS THAT THEN DIG SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST CANADA. THAT IN TURN HELPS TO DEEPEN ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUR ISSUE IS JUST HOW DEEP DOES THIS EASTERN TROUGH GET? THE GFS VERSION IS FLATTER THAN THE ECWMF (SYSTEM STAYS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES) BUT GIVEN THE FREQUENCY WITH WHICH WE HAVE SEEN THESE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHS THIS YEAR DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES... I HAVE TO FAVOR THE DEEPER ECMWF ON THIS ONE. AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD SEEM THAT SYSTEM WOULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN TUESDAY THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER MICHIGAN AT THAT TIME (BETWEEN THE DIGGING CANADIAN SYSTEM AND THE DEPARTING CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD BY THEN BE OVER QUEBEC). THIS WOULD SUGGEST TO ME OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM I HAVE LOW POPS WED - THU AND FOR NOW WILL CALL THAT GOOD. IF NOTHING ELSE IT SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN TEMPERATURE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1212 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT KMKG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH STORMS AT KMKG AND KGRR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. SOME LOWER...MVFR CEILINGS...ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z SAT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL PUSH WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. BEACH HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY NORTH OF SOUTH HAVEN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAK WALLS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY THE HAZARDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH SIDES OF PIERS AND BREAKWALLS DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS. KEPT THE SCA GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 18K FT COUPLED WITH LAKE DELTA T/S IN THE UPPER TEENS INDICATES WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050- 056-064. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ845>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...WDM AVIATION...DUKE HYDROLOGY...93 MARINE...93  FXUS63 KGRR 190741 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 341 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 COOL AND OCCASIONALLY WET WEATHER WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW PEEKS OF SUN MAY OCCASIONALLY SHINE ON THE AREA... HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL COOL OFF INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RAIN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDER. THE GOING FCST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST THINKING...SO NO NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME. WE ARE EXPECTING A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. THIS FIRST PERIOD IS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE SEE A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS MO. THE FALLING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND DELTA T/S ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS C IS ALLOWING FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST. WE EXPECT TO SEE SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MO SHORT WAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE. WE SEE A QUICK BURST OF MID LEVEL FGEN MOVE THROUGH TO THE SE THIS MORNING. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...WE ACTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE AS A DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. WE EXPECT THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO ROTATE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL BE UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. WE EXPECT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO RAMP UP TOWARD 00Z TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY FOR THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH A WRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY NEAR THE LAKE STILL AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING -2C SFC LI/S OVER THE LAKE WITH THE 60+F/16C LAKE WATER. BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR A LAKE MODIFIED PARCEL ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CAPE ABOVE THE -20C ISOTHERM. WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...SEE MORE IN THE MARINE SECTION. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND THE JET CORE MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG WAVE DIVES SE FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION TO THE NW OF HUDSON BAY. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD CLIP LITTLE AND BIG SABLE POINTS AS EARLY AS BY 00Z MON. THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN WILL COME SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN LOWER AND THE U.P.. THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWFA FIRST THING MON MORNING AND WILL EXIT RATHER QUICKLY. WE WILL SEE THE DRY SLOT MOVE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY CLEAR CONDITIONS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A BREEZY DAY. LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM WHEN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 PERSISTENT DEEP TOUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND UNSETTLED/SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO EXTREME LAKE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP RATES... PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. WHILE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN DUE TO THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OFF THE LAKE... SOME SNOW COULD STILL MIX IN AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FREQUENT SHORTWAVES PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION... PRECIP COVERAGE AND RATES WILL INCREASE FROM TIME TO TIME. THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES IN THE LONG TERM IS DIFFICULT... BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CERTAINLY SUPPORTS FREQUENT UPTICKS IN LAKE EFFECT PRECIP MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK COULD GET INTERESTING SINCE THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE UPPER JET CORE WILL DIP SOUTH OF THE STATE. THAT WOULD LEAD TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND A BIT COLDER H8 TEMPS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INLAND FROM LK MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013 SOME ICING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000 FEET AGL THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEAR KMKG AS LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND. BY 12Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATIONS SUCH AS KAZO AND KJXN. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY WORKING OUT VERY WELL FOR THE ENTIRE SHORELINE. WE WILL BE EXTENDING IT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN UP EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF BREAK OR TWO. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED YET AGAIN OVER TIME. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER THE LAKE. THIS THREAT WILL LAST INTO SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS BY SUN MORNING. DELTA T/S IN THE UPPER TEENS AND FAIRLY LARGE CLOUD DEPTHS WILL SUPPORT THE CHC. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EVEN WITH RAIN IN THE FCST ALMOST EVERYDAY. PWATS AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR /0.50 INCHES/ WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN/DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL. THE GRADUAL NATURE OF THE RAIN WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM JUMPING TOO QUICKLY. THE WATER LEVELS GOING INTO THIS PERIOD ARE AROUND AVERAGE...SO THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR THIS RAIN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...NJJ MARINE...NJJ  FXUS63 KGRR 251142 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 742 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY START TO DIMINISH AND MIGRATE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A TREND OF MILDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO LATER THIS WEEK. ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN. THIS RAIN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF COOLER AIR WILL COME IN FOR THE FRI AND SAT BEFORE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FCST PACKAGE IS DEALING WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO IDENTIFY TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO LAKE EFFECT THROUGH WED...BEFORE TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. WE ARE SEEING THE NICE...YET SHORT BURST OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING ALMOST AS EXPECTED. THE ONE THING THAT IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN EXPECTED IS THE EAST/WEST BAND OF SNOW THAT IS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA ALONG M-55. THIS IS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD HELP CUT BACK ON SNOW ACCUMS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST NICELY THIS MORNING. IT IS QUICK ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR SO...ALTHOUGH IT WILL HAPPEN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THIS WILL EXIT THE CWFA TO THE SE AROUND 12Z PER THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK OF THE LINE. THE SHORT DURATION AND THE CORE OF THE SNOW FALLING BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT TO SEE A SHORT BREAK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. WE DO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...AND SOME CONTRIBUTION OF HEAT/MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL JUSTIFY THE RELATIVELY HIGHER CHCS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMS...ALTHOUGH A QUICK COVERING OF THE GROUND COULD OCCUR DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL START DIMINISHING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AT INLAND LOCATIONS...AND FOR THEM TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE LAKE. THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALTOGETHER BY WED MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WE DO EXPECT SKIES TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY IF NOT CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. WE WILL SEE PCPN CHCS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ON WED NIGHT....ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWFA. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AT THE SFC...AND GRADUALLY A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA BY THU MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TAKE PLACE...ALLOWING PCPN TO DEVELOP. THE PCPN WOULD START OUT AS MAINLY SNOW. A WARM NOSE ALOFT TRIES TO PUSH IN OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LOW CHC OF SOME FREEZING RAIN. WE WET BULB DOWN PRETTY WELL...AND P-TYPE BECOMES A MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO BY THU MORNING WITH NEARLY AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE DEVELOPING BY 12Z THU. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THU MORNING...AND ALL PCPN SHOULD TURN TO RAIN BY 18Z THU. A BETTER THREAT OF PCPN/RAIN WILL COME THU AFTERNOON /AND BEYOND/ AS THE NOSE OF THE LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 BETTER CONFIDENCE ON SOME RAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN GULF MOISTURE. THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THU EVENING. SO RAIN IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EARLY. POPS WERE INCREASED. WHILE SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY....IT APPEARS THAT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET STEADILY PUSHES THROUGH...THAT THE DURATION OF ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. STILL WITH SNOW MELT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO IMPACTS. I DID TREND THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS RAIN FOR THU NIGHT. THE COLDER AIR ON THE HIGH RES EURO ARRIVES AFTER 12Z FOR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE COLDER GFS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW GIVEN UNSATURATED DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT AFTER 06Z FRI. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE OH VALLEY SAT. THIS WOULD BE A SNOW SYSTEM IF IT DID REACH SW LOWER MI. LOOKS LIKE THE TRACK IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. OVERALL I BUMPED UP TEMPS AND POPS OVER GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL SUPPORT THIS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF IMPACTS. SO WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST. RECENT RADAR TRENDS DOES SHOW SOME DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS. THESE COULD CLIP KLAN WITH IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND KBIV COULD ARRIVE AT KAZO IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. WIND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOST GUSTS SHOULD STAY UNDER 25 KNOTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014 HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS. CURRENTLY 11 FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN. LIMITED SNOWMELT AND LIMITED ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW STEADY OR FALLING LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO MUCH WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS PREDICT THAT LONG TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF A COUPLE INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WORK WEEK COULD REMAIN WELL IN THE 50S. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN...SNOW PACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF 3 INCHES OR MORE OVER A LARGE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WOULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS. THIS COULD BE EXACERBATED FURTHER IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP. THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN SCOTTVILLE REPORTED THAT THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER HAS ALREADY BEEN OPEN SINCE LAST WEEK. HOWEVER...ICE WAS STILL PRESENT FARTHER NORTH NEAR LUDINGTON AND IN PERE MARQUETTE LAKE. WE ARE WAITING TO HEAR BACK FROM OTHER OBSERVERS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF ICE COVERAGE ON THE MUSKEGON AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. FOR THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS...THERE IS FAR LESS SNOWPACK AND RIVERS ARE ESSENTIALLY ICE FREE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN COULD FALL OVER THIS AREA WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE...SO ALL RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MJS AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...TJT  FXUS63 KGRR 031918 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 318 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER ON THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGES OF THE FCST ARE DETERMINING RAIN CHCS FOR TUE...AND THEN AGAIN ON WED NIGHT. WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH A DRY FCST FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRED EARLIER ACROSS THE ERN COUNTIES. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH...AND IS NOW EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WE HAVE LEFT THE CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SHORT WAVE CLIP THE NE CORNER OF THE CWFA WHILE THE JET CORE IS STILL IN OUR AREA. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT CLOUD DEPTH AND THUS THUNDER POTENTIAL. THIS WAVE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z WED. TUE NIGHT AND WED ARE LOOKING DRY...AND WE THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHC THAT WED NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY ALSO. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THAT TIME FRAME. WED NIGHT THE GFS IS PHASING NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY AND BRINGING A STRONGER SYSTEM THROUGH THE STATE. WE BELIEVE THAT THE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN UNPHASED...AND THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WE HAVE HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ALONG I-94 JUST IN CASE. DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS C. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE AN UPPER POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES / OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS PRECIPITATION REMAINING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THAN THE 00Z RUN DID. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND FIM SHOW THE FOCUS MUCH MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WE WILL USE A CONSENSUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FROM I-94 SOUTH. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW EVEN INTO FRIDAY DUE TO CONTINUED PHASING AND TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD AMPLIFY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT AGL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT WERE BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE 00-01Z TIMEFRAME. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WE ARE ANTICIPATING NO HEADLINES BEING NEEDED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS MAY PICK UP ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE BIT ON TUE...HOWEVER WE DO NOT EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES. BY WED...WINDS WILL GO BACK TO BEING 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 WE HAVE SEEN RIVERS AND STREAMS RISE A BIT TODAY AFTER THE BENEFICIAL RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NO ISSUES ARE NOTED WITH ALL RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL VALUES. VERY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A DRIER PATTERN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...TJT HYDROLOGY...NJJ MARINE...NJJ  FXUS63 KGRR 111452 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1052 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 LATEST UPDATE... MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSCEND OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S...SO WE WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING EAST IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY TRY TO BRING SOME RAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG WITH SOME HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS AS WELL INLAND. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THEY WILL BE MORE FOCUSED TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...30-50 PCT AT THE HIGHEST. ITS POSSIBLE AS THE FLOW GOES A BIT NORTHEAST SATURDAY THAT WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS LANSING AND JACKSON. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN U.S. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON SUN NIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AFFECTS THE WRN U.S.. WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS C. WE WILL SEE THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN IN THE LONG TERM BEGIN LATER WED NIGHT AND INTO THU. ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE WRN UPPER TROUGH AND BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT. THE SFC REFLECTION WILL BE ORIENTED AS SUCH TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A BIT ON THU WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 SHOWERS WILL SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINANT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SOME IFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG I-94. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM AS WELL AS THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR WATERSPOUT RESEARCH GRIDDED SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT INDEX SUPPORTS AN INCREASED RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS FROM 18Z-00Z PRIMARILY FROM HOLLAND SOUTH TO ST. JOSEPH. BASED ON THE NOMOGRAM...THE H850/LAKE SURFACE DELTA T VALUES OF ABOUT 16C COMBINED WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS OF 16000-18000 FT AND H850 WINDS OF ONLY 10-20 KTS PLACES SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN IN A FAVORED AREA FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. WITH ONE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR KENOSHA WI THIS MORNING...THE RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE LAKE AND MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE SCA AND BHS CONTINUE UNCHANGED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUKE SHORT TERM...DUKE LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...DUKE HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...HOVING  FXUS63 KGRR 151535 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1135 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT... USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY... WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF U.S. 10 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 WHERE RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON. JUST BEGINNING TO SEE CU BUILDING UP AROUND THE GREEN BAY AREA WHERE THE COLD FRONT LAYS. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR ALL OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL ZIP THROUGH ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE IN THIS AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FROM I-96 NORTHWARD. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 WHERE BETTER HEATING WAS OCCURRING. UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD OCCUR EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUILDING IN. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY BUT BIG LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF MOISTURE AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. ALL THE MOISTURE IS ABOVE 7000 FT WITH VERY STEEP...ALMOST DRY ADIABATIC...LAPSE RATES IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER. THIS INDICATES THAT ANY SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. PWATS DO MANAGE TO RISE ABOVE 0.50 SOUTH OF I-96 AND BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA... BUT STILL CHANCE POPS. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT LATER TODAY DOES RESULT IN CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NRN LK MI... SO WILL HAVE A SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ARRIVES TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SFC TROUGH AND THE MAIN COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH FROM NRN MI. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MUCH LAKE EFFECT PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY ONCE THE MAIN FRONT GOES THROUGH. WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY AS THE -5 TO -7C H8 AIR POURS IN... BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND UNSATURATED DGZ IMPLIES THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. EXTENT OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DICTATE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE'S A CHANCE THAT SOME CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE. THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEST OF 131 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A FREEZE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS MIDWEEK. FOR SEVERAL DAYS NWP HAS ZEROED IN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 32 OR BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY BRING H8 TEMPS NEAR -7C SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TEMPS SHOULD FALL STEADILY INTO THE 20S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. THE COLD AIR WON/T LAST LONG AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL GET GOING SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +13C BY LATE MONDAY SENDING TEMPS TO NEAR 60 MONDAY AND MID 60S TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS... WITH CIGS ABOVE 5000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS AS SOME OCNL GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEP MIXING/STEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z TONIGHT TO 5 TO 10 KTS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING... ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LK MI INCLUDING MKG. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS COLD AIR POURS ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF LK MI. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN... BUT RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS AND STRONG WINDS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 RIVERS LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE... AS UNDER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL THIS WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...JK SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...MEADE  FXUS63 KGRR 241133 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 733 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 FALL LIKE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK... FEATURING HIGHS OF ONLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. TODAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH OUT OF THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE WEEK AND BY NEXT WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP NEAR 80 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST NW OF LK SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A CHILLY AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 5C. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS THIS OCCURS... WITH HIGHEST POPS/BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX SWINGING INTO NRN LWR MI LATER TODAY WHICH COMBINED WITH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SW LWR MI IS EXPECTED TO BE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE UPR JET CORE SINKS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND IS SITUATED FROM WI INTO FAR SRN LWR MI OR NRN INDIANA. DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET CORE COMBINED WITH LAKE-H8 DELTA T/S AROUND 15C WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MORE QPF THAN CURRENT NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OF THE DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY GLOOMY TUESDAY. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF CLOUDS/TEMPS SINCE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE PRESENT WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW STILL POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF LK HURON. HOWEVER THE SHOWER COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE PROFILES THAN TUESDAY INDICATED. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 AFTER A COOL AND UNSETTLED FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS WARMER WITH A CHC OF SOME RAIN ONLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPS BEGINNING. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL LIFT OUT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON WED NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN...IN ADDITION TO THE REGION BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE CHC OF RAIN FOR THE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT PERIOD. THIS CHC OF RAIN WILL COME VIA A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND TRYING TO TOP THE LONG WAVE RIDGE. IT WAS TO BE DRAWN NORTH A BIT MORE YESTERDAY AS PHASING WAS TO TAKE PLACE WITH THIS WAVE AND A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE NRN STREAM WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND HAVING THE UPPER WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES BY ON SAT NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OUT WEST IS PUSHED EAST A BIT INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM AIR MASS WITH IT. H850 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 20C WHICH WOULD HAVE HIGHS APPROACHING 90. WE HAVE STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THOUGH WE HAVE A CHANCE OF ANOTHER SUMMER PUSH AFTER THIS VERY FALL-LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY FOR AVIATION INTERESTS IS THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. SFC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE INCLUDING THE MKG TERMINAL. WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT... BUT CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS... AT OR ABOVE 3000 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY AT MKG AND GRR... BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY LENGTHY/PERSISTENT REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS FROM THESE SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND WAVES UP TO 8 FEET. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA PERSISTING. WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE STRONG WINDS BUT PERHAPS A BETTER POTENTIAL TUESDAY DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH... WHICH SHOULD BE HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST. HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS AIDED IN PUSHING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES. WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.1 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EAST GRAND RAPIDS THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF IT FALLING WITHIN ONE HOUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SWATHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 7PM...BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING LONG TERM RIVER ISSUES DUE TO THE RAIN AS IT WILL BE LOCALIZED. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THOUGH THAT WE MAY NEED A LOCAL FLOOD ADVISORY DUE TO STORM DRAINS NOT BEING ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE RAINFALL RATES. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. LATER IN THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...HYDRO CONCERNS ARE LOW OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS...OUTSIDE OF A SHORT TERM HYDRO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING STORMS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...NJJ AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...DUKE MARINE...MEADE  FXUS63 KGRR 250729 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 A LARGE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CURRENTLY THE WEEKEND LOOKS WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY RELATED TO THE BROAD TROUGHING AND COOL AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT AT AROUND 5000 FT INDICATING THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THEREFORE PREDOMINATELY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE A BIT HIGHER TODAY NORTHEAST OF GRR CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...AROUND 7000 FT....SO SHOWERS AROUND CLARE AND MT PLEASANT COULD BE A BIT HEALTHIER AND MORE NUMEROUS THAN THOSE SOUTH OF I-96... ESPECIALLY IF ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST PERMIT SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR AT H8... AROUND 4C... IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND RESULTING IN A FEW MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG/NEAR THE I-96 CORRIDOR. THE LAKE INFLUENCE SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS H8 TEMPS SLOWLY WARM... AND AS CURRENTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOST ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE UNIFORMLY TO 10-20 MPH AREA WIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IMPACTING THE AREA. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE PROFILES PROGGED. THINKING PRIMARILY JUST SCATTERED SPRINKLES FOR WEDNESDAY. SFC RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST... YIELDING DECREASING CLOUD PATTERN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL FOLLOW BUT WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AREN'T GREAT AND ARE REFLECTED BY LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS. THE SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HOWEVER AND WHEN COUPLED WITH 500 J/KG MUCAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE CWA. THAT MEANS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SFC TEMPS WITH A RETURN TO MID 80S HIGHS BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH THE TAFS HAVE VFR CIGS...THEY MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH BY 4 PM OR SO. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS CONTINUE TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES 3-6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL SOME 2-4 FOOTERS LIKELY. WATERSPOUTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY... ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NRN LK MICHIGAN... BUT RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS IS A LIMITING FACTOR. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEADE SHORT TERM...MEADE LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...EBW MARINE...MEADE  FXUS63 KGRR 301154 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS AROUND 60. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z... THEN RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR REGION: MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 20Z OR SO... FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 00Z. LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR REGION: THE MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 00Z WITH IFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...04  FXUS63 KGRR 271150 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 750 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A milder pattern with highs in the 50s is expected this week before cold air returns again over the weekend into next week. Widespread rain this morning, associated with a slow moving front, will end from northwest to southeast this afternoon. High pressure behind the front leads to dry weather tonight and Wednesday, then low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley Region on Thursday will bring another chance of rain. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Ensemble of hi res short range guidance has rain ending north and west of GRR mid to late morning, but lingering south and east of GRR into the early to mid afternoon. The Jackson area will be the last to see the rain end - around 4 pm. Extensive clouds are expected to linger after the rain ends, so will be conservative with temps and have highs in the lower 50s. Best potential for clearing tonight is north and west of GRR, but this may lead to some areas of fog/stratus developing as winds diminish. Wednesday is looking like the best day of the week with high pressure providing decent prospects for sun once any morning stratus departs. Highs in the mid to upper 50s expected. Models differ on coverage, timing, and amount of rain for Thursday related to the low moving along the front situated over the Ohio Valley. Highest pops/main chance of rain will be south and east of GRR where potential for a quarter to half inch will exist, but for now will have only chance pops until models come into better agreement. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 We'll see a rapid succession of weather systems move across the Great Lakes during the long term. Rain will be moving out of the cwa Thursday night setting up a dry Friday. Precipitation chances quickly move back in Friday night. The gfs is quicker and deeper with a low moving across the UP compared to the ecmwf. We'll keep chc pops going from Friday nigh through Saturday night to account for the model timing issues. Both models bring some light precipitation to the cwa as the cold front moves through, just at different times. High pressure noses in behind the cold front Sunday. The ecmwf develops a low on the front over the Tennessee Valley and moves it northeast along the frontal boundary Sunday night, which could clip the southern cwa. The gfs doesn't do that and is dry. Confidence is low on pcpn late in the weekend. Highs will be in the 40s through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 750 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Widespread IFR today as rain impacts the area, although cigs improving to MVFR this afternoon mainly from GRR to the north and west. Predominately MVFR conditions this evening, but areas of IFR probably developing again after midnight as stratus and/or fog reforms. Could see some LIFR to VLIFR vsbys in fog after 09Z, but confidence in that is low at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Latest wind and wave guidance suggests that the Small Craft Advisory north of Grand Haven is marginal. It may be able to be cancelled early. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Rain will spread into West Michigan after sunset, with periods of steady rain continuing through Tuesday morning. Rain amounts are expected to range between 1/2 to 1 inch, and occur over a widespread area. This rainfall will cause only minor rises in river levels. Dry weather is expected Tuesday through Friday. River levels have fallen considerably since flooding occurred in late February and early March. No flood warnings are in effect. Water levels are expected to rise near bankfull along Sycamore Creek and along the Portage River through mid week due to the rain expected tonight and Tuesday, but flooding is not expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Meade SHORT TERM...Meade LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...Meade HYDROLOGY...HLO MARINE...Meade  FXUS63 KGRR 120011 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 711 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 - Light snow likely on Wednesday with some drizzle/freezing drizzle possible in the afternoon/evening - Brief mix possible Friday morning before turning over the rain - Quiet weather likely for the weekend and early next week && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 There doesn't seem to be a big change in thinking regarding the system coming through the area on Wednesday. Light snow will spread through the area on Wednesday morning out ahead of the compact incoming low. Plenty of lift with this system, but moisture is limited with no moisture source being tapped for this system as the Gulf is cut off. This will keep accumulations light, generally an inch or less. Roads should not be a problem during the daylight hours with snow coming in after the morning commute, and temps around freezing. We could see the light snow turn over to some drizzle/freezing drizzle in the afternoon/evening before precipitation ends Wednesday evening. Forecast soundings show a decent potential of losing the saturated DGZ after the warm air advection moves through. Again temps will be a couple of degrees within freezing. There is some potential that this could somewhat impact the evening commute, especially once the sun goes down and pavement temps drop. We will monitor this for possible headlines. The next weather maker for the area will arrive early Friday morning. We will see moisture streaming north out ahead of the srn stream system moving by to our south. This moisture will be acted upon by the far srn periphery of a northern stream system floating by across the nrn Great Lakes. Most of the lower atmosphere will be above freezing, except maybe for the immediate sfc. We could see a brief window of freezing rain at the onset, but it would change over quickly as the cold sfc would warm enough. The core of the system to our south will stay south of the area. We should quiet down after the Friday system, and could remain dry through the end of the 7 day forecast period. This will be the result of general amplified upper ridging that will control the weather. The cold air will remain locked up across Canada, and moisture will remain locked up well south of the area. We do see a short wave trying to slip through on Monday. This should have little to no fanfare with no moisture expected to be nearby. We will see cooler temps come in for early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 710 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 Widespread MVFR cigs prevail this evening, but are expected to lift out of the area from south to north after midnight. Then a period of VFR is likely overnight through mid to late morning Wednesday before light snow moves in from the west. Once the snow arrives expect conditions to rapidly lower to MVFR and possibly IFR. A changeover to drizzle is likely after it snows for a few hours, with IFR probably becoming more widespread after 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 We will be issuing another Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore area valid from later tonight through most of the daylight hours of Wednesday. Gradient increases quite a bit with the incoming compact low. Waves will be limited a bit, as the flow is offshore in nature from the SE. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 No hydrology concerns are expected over the next week. We will see some runoff from residual snowmelt that will occur with temps going above freezing, but this will be slow and gradual with not a lot of runoff expected. We will see some rainfall with the system on Friday, however these amounts look like they should remain below half an inch for all of the area. These factors may cause slight rises on the area rivers, but nothing that should cause impacts. Dry weather will likely then persist for the weekend and early next week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 5 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Meade HYDROLOGY...NJJ MARINE...NJJ