FXUS65 KGJT 271024 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 424 AM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013 TODAY...00Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAD A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE IN PLACE FROM NEVADA BACK INTO WEST TEXAS. THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER HAS BEEN SOUTHWEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO UP TO SOUTHERN NEVADA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. HEIGHT FALLS STILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW SO SOME DIGGING TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WHICH WILL FLATTEN...AND FORCE THE WESTERN RIDGE SOUTHWARD. AS SUCH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE DIRECTED MORE TOWARD OUR CWA AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. MODELS IN A BETTER GROUPING TODAY SHOWING PWATS TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.3 INCHES OVER WESTERN COLORADO WHERE NORMAL IS ABOUT 0.75 OF AN INCH PWAT. FORCING TO CONVERT THIS MOISTURE INTO PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM A WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS MOVING OUT SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING...AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET ARCING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONSIDERED SPREADING THE FFA ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. NAM HINTED A MORE DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS BUT NEW RUN AND OTHER MODELS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS. STORM MOTION ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST ALONG THE SE AZ/SE UT/SW CO/NW NM BORDER TODAY. FOR NOW JUST INTRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ZFP WORDING AS K INDEX VALUES OF CLOSE TO 40 ARE NOTED. HIGHS WILL BE DROPPING A BIT BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS...ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST-WEST. PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES. MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES ON THE TIMING OF THESE ATMOSPHERIC RIPPLES LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT MODEST DYNAMIC LIFTING WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING EVEN WITH THE LOSS/LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT FROM THE SW-W THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH MANY AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN. AT THIS POINT MODELS FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE KEPT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PW VALUES BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING TO AROUND 0.7-0.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL VERY RESPECTABLE VALUES FOR A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN FACT...THE WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY DISCUSSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS PICK UP MONDAY TO AROUND 15 KT ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED LOWER PW VALUES LEADING TO A DIMINISHING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT MONDAY DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE TIME PERIOD OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NORTHWARD AS YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WAVE HOWEVER IS BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND LOOKS TO PUSH THE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST INLAND WHICH WILL DRAG DRIER INTO OUR CWA. AS SUCH PWATS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO WEDNESDAY TO AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH. AS THE WESTERN TROF PLOWS INTO THE RIDGE AND FORCES IT EASTWARD WE GET ANOTHER BRIEF PUSH OF MOISTURE GOING INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THEREFORE A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW DAYS OF BETTER COVERAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND REBUILDING HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY AND SHOULD PERSIST AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS GOING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AN SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL BRING A MORE NOTICEABLE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW STORM BASES TO BE LOWER AN WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PASSING STORMS NEAR THE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE CONFIDENCE STILL QUITE LOW TO PLACE AS PREVAILING IN THE FORECAST. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OBSCURING MOUNTAIN TOPS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA INTO THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013 STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUN OFF. DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION...AREAS SOUTH OF A LA SAL TO TELLURIDE TO LAKE CITY LINE WILL BE UNDER THE MOST THREAT. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS THE HIGHEST FOR DEBRIS FLOWS OVER THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS WHERE RECENT BURN SCARS SUCH AS THE LITTLE SAND AND WEST FORK COMPLEX WILL REACT TO LESS RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS EVENING. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ019. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...15/TB LONG TERM...15/TB AVIATION...TGJT HYDROLOGY...TGJT  FXUS65 KGJT 252203 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 403 PM MDT SUN AUG 25 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SUN AUG 25 2013 EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND IS TAKING AIM NORTH OF I-70 ATTM. THE CLOUD COVER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE LIMITED THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SO FAR...HOWEVER A BREAK UP IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THIS WAVE IS LEADING TO THE PRECIPITATION TAKING ON A MORE CONVECTIVE MODE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE GENERALLY STAYED BELOW A THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND THOUGH NOT A FLOODING THREAT...WILL LEAVE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXCESSIVE RUN OFF FROM THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE AXIS...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND CHANNELIZED VORTICITY REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. ON MONDAY THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD JUST A TAD AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BETTER ISOLATION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH LEAD TO A RATHER VIGOROUS ROUND OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND WITH DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH...EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WILL BE ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SUN AUG 25 2013 12Z HAND ANALYSIS AT H5 HAD THE CENTER OF THE STRENGTHENING SUB TROPICAL CIRCULATION OVER MISSOURI...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST OF NOAM. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK PERIOD BUT THERE WILL BE SUBTLE SHIFTS OF ENERGY IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN. THE GRADIENT OVER OUR CWA WILL BE RELAXING TUESDAY. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL EXPANDING INTO THE ROCKIES AS ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE COASTAL TROF AND RE-ORIENTS IT/S AXIS TO THE WEST AS WELL. THIS WILL PULL THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED JUST WEST OF OUR CWA AND THIS SHOULD BRING A DOWNTURN TREND THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER THETA SURFACES SHOW ANOTHER FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ADVECTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PLAINS RIDGE...AND DIRECTED TOWARD THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON THE EASTERLIES. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SHEARING WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR THE DIVIDE. LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION ROOTED TO THE HILLS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEING A PASSING STORM. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 3/4 OF AN INCH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY INTO THE LAT WEEK PERIOD. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PULLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INLAND...BOTH OF WHICH WILL AGAIN TAP INTO THE MONSOON REGION. ATTM GFS PWATS ARE JUMPING BACK UP TO 1.3 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR THIS...BUT IT APPEARS WE COULD BE HEADING INTO ANOTHER WET WEEKEND PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SUN AUG 25 2013 AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FROM VIS BLO 3SM SHRA AND/OR CIGS BELOW BKN030 WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TO THE SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION MODE WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING LOCAL AREAS TO MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 100 MSL. BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...A LULL IN THE SHRA ACTIVITY MAY ALLOW FOR VFR AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS MONDAY MORNING...BUT HEATING OF THE DAY AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF NEARING FLIGHT TERMINALS. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ001-003-006-007-009- 011-012-014-017>023. UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ022>025-027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...PF/15 LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...PF/15  FXUS65 KGJT 311040 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 440 AM MDT SAT AUG 31 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT AUG 31 2013 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE COLORADO AND SRN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SUBTROPICAL WAVE POSITIONED OVER NRN ARIZONA THAT WILL DRIFT INTO SRN UTAH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A DEFORMATION AXIS CUTS ACROSS COLORADO FROM A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE (MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING) WITH THE ARIZONA SHORT WAVE. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH BUT SLOWLY SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DIURNAL CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH PWATS ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY...EXCEEDING 1.25 INCHES OVER THE DESERT VALLEYS OF SE UTAH. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE BOOKCLIFFS...WHICH LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL OF LOCAL HEAVY RAINERS FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS. NORTH OF THE BOOKCLIFFS...THERE IS A BIT MORE BULK SHEAR (20-30 KTS) WITH PWATS FALLING TO LESS THAN AN INCH LIMITING FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SHEAR FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE MONSOONAL TAP REMAINS OPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CLIMATOLOGY OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS THE MAXIMUM THROUGH THE YEAR OCCURRING TOWARD THE END OF AUGUST. THIS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST WEEK OR SO AND THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE MODELS TREND PWAT UPWARD TO A PEAK NEAR 1.1 OR 1.2 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN COLORADO. NORMAL IS JUST OVER .75 OF AN INCH SO WE ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS THROUGH THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE FUEL IS THERE TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE DUE TO OUR CWA BEING IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COL BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AND THE WELL DEFINED TROF OFF THE PAC NW COASTLINE. THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY UNORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SO STORMS INITIALLY FIRING ON THE TERRAIN WILL TAKE A WHILE TO PROGRESS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALSO DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THIS GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO EXIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER GOING INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO FIRE STORMS WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND THIS WILL COME FROM THE WELL DEFINED TROF OVER ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND SUPPLY A DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO OUR CWA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT AUG 31 2013 THIS TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO WYOMING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA WITH DRIER AIR SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND FROM SW TO NE ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING PRECIPITATION DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH THE COLORADO MOUNTAIN FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH AS WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND SOME BEFORE THE HEATING SPARKS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT OFFER ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING ANCHORED OVER ERN COLORADO. MODERATE TO HIGH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE HIGHLANDS OF MEXICO INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES. BROADBRUSH FORECAST WITH THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER SW COLORADO. LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH LESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SAT AUG 31 2013 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS AFTER 19Z...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF VALLEY TAF SITES. LOCAL +SHRA/+TSRA WILL LOWER CIGS TO IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...BUT SOME ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PF/15 LONG TERM...15/PF AVIATION...PF  FXUS65 KGJT 081706 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1106 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2013 MADE A FEW TWEAKS DOWNWARD TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WAVE MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS ATTM AND THIS ALONG WITH HEATING FROM THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN TO SPARK CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CWA NOT ONLY DUE TO THE GOOD MOISTURE PLUME BUT ADDED ASCENT FROM THE WAVE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATION. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO FAVOR THE EASTERN TERRAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO THE VALLEYS THROUGH BY EVENING WITH STORM MOTIONS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. PWATS AT GJT ARE NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING AOA 8000 FT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A GOOD BET. TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2013 PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACNW FINALLY KICKS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP MONSOONAL PLUME THAT HAS BEEN PARKED JUST TO OUR WEST...TO SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AND TEAM WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ROAMING THE FORECAST AREA TO TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEFINITELY ON THE INCREASE WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST JUMPING TO OVER AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK AROUND 1.40 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO FIRE WITH THE HRRR DEVELOPING DEEPER CONVECTION AFTER 18Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH. STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING EXISTS. FOCUS OF ATTENTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CANYON COUNTRY IN SOUTHEAST UTAH AND CLOSE TO LAKE POWELL IN SAN JUAN COUNTY UTAH...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WE WILL BE HAVING SOME FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO...MAINLY FOR THE BEDROCK AND SLICK ROCK AREAS NORTH OF CORTEZ AND SOUTH OF GATEWAY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND GREATER SFC MOISTURE IN PLACE...TEMPS DROP AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF 90 PLUS DAYS IN GRAND JUNCTION. A WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN UTAH AND THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LEAVING A VERTICALLY STACKED TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN CENTERED OVER LAS VEGAS. THIS PRODUCES ENHANCES S-SW MOIST AND PERTURBED FLOW INTO EASTERN UTAH. PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES TO 1.4 INCHES IN SE UTAH TO OVER AN INCH NORTH OF CRAIG. STORM MOTION IS TO THE NE AT 20KTS WHICH WILL LIMIT RAINFALL FROM ANY ONE STORM BUT TRAINING WILL QUICKLY ADD UP. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAK 40KT JET OVER NE UTAH- FAR NW CO WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS THERE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DROP MONDAY TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS MONTH. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2013 SOME CHANGES IN STORE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE. EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT THAT MAY LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THIS. MODELS ARE NOW PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ABOVE TIMBERLINE ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINS OVER NE UTAH. TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TS LORENA...CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA... WILL BE PULLED INTO FOUR CORNERS ENHANCING ALREADY DEEP MOISTURE. STORM MOTION OF TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 MPH WILL AGAIN MAKE FLOODING DIFFICULT FROM ANY ONE STORM...BUT MUD FLOWS WILL THREATEN FROM TWO DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SUBTLE DRYING ADVERTISED IN THE MOST RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGS INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL DRAW UP AT LEAST ONE MORE ROUND MONSOONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING TO START OUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER AS THE AFTERNOON MOVES INTO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TO THE FORECAST TERMINALS WHERE LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA MAY TEMPORARILY SET UP. IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9500 FEET...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP SOME SMALL HAIL. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MUCH OF MONDAY AS A STRONG PLUME OF MOISTURE SETTLES OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COZ020-021. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-025-027>029. && $$ UPDATE...15 SHORT TERM...JDC/JOE LONG TERM...JOE/JDC AVIATION...TGJT  FXUS65 KGJT 032157 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 257 PM MST FRI JAN 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 256 PM MST FRI JAN 3 2014 THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES CUTTING ACROSS WY...SOUTHERN ID...AND NW UT...MOVING SOUTHEAST. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE SEEN...THE FIRST DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WY/ID CLOUD BAND...AND THE SECOND FURTHER NORTH OVER N/CENTRAL MT. THE CLOUD BAND IS CURRENTLY NOT IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR CLOUD BAND IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH AND SHORTWAVE. IT IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE CO/WY BORDER THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENESIS THAT SHOULD CAUSE MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WHEN THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVERTAKES THE SURFACE FRONT...STRENGTHENING IT AND DRIVING IT FURTHER SOUTH OVER WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE TIME PERIOD WHEN THE MOST INGREDIENTS...FAVORABLE JET MAX POSITION...QG FORCING...FRONTOGENESIS...WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS... COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF COLORADO. THE JET SPEED MAX AND BEST DYNAMICS SKIRT QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING AND THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NW. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE THE BEST SNOWFALL OVER THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ON NW FACING SLOPES SAT NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS INTACT...AND STRETCHED HIGHER POPS FURTHER WEST OVER WEST-CENTRAL CO AND NE UTAH WHERE THE MAIN BAND SHOULD BE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE BOOKCLIFFS AND ROAN PLATEAU...THE ENERGY SLIPS QUICKLY EAST WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT ON THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS IN THE GRAND JUNCTION AND MONTROSE VICINITIES AS WELL AS THE PARADOX VALLEYS AND FOUR CORNERS. HAVE HAD TO CARRY NO MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS IN THOSE AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM MST FRI JAN 3 2014 BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE BULK OF THE WINTER STORM OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE OVER. HOWEVER...SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHCENTRAL MTNS...ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS ASPEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL FURTHER CONTINUE IN THE PARK AND GORE RANGES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. MONDAY WILL BE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE DIVERGING ON THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY BUT BOTH INDICATE A ONE-TWO PUNCH...THE FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL MTNS AND THE SECOND PART SWINGING MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS MTNS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE AN OROGRAPHIC SYSTEM...SO VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AFFECTED OTHER THAN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SNOW AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE THIRD SYSTEM IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS PROJECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC IS INDICATING A CLOSED LOW SWEEPING SOUTH INTO ARIZONA THURS NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE SOLNS WOULD BRING A VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS/UNCOMPAHGRE/GRAND MESA REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 256 PM MST FRI JAN 3 2014 THE WINTER STORM APPROACHING CENTRAL CO IS MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN SCHEDULED...SO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION START TIME WILL BE LATER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. KVEL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH SHALLOW HAZE DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TONIGHT AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG AND HAZE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO BE VFR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL MTNS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THEN THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REALLY PICK UP BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS KGJT AND KTEX...THOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND LOWEST VIS WILL BE NEAR KSBS...KASE...AND KEGE WITH VLIFR PROBABLE AT TIMES BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE COZ014. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE COZ009-012-018. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY COZ008. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY COZ004-013. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY COZ005. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY COZ010. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...JAM  FXUS65 KGJT 121050 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 450 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014 500MB TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE PROPELLED EAST TODAY BY A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA PULLING PACIFIC MOISTURE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY NOON. EXPECTING TSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE VERY ISOLATED TODAY SINCE THERE IS NO LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM THE SFC TO UPPER LEVELS. A VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL BUILD INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. WITH CLOUD THICKNESS FAIRLY THIN THIS MORNING...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART STAY OUT OF THE VALLEYS UNTIL LATER TODAY THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY IS STILL THERE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 0.50 INCH IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH IS RATHER HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 9000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROP TO NEAR VALLEY LEVEL AROUND SUNSET ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WINTER WX ADVISORIES AS MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE THE SNOW LINE SHOULD STAY IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE WITH THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF SYSTEM AND PRETTY LOW WATER TO SNOW RATIOS DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS EVENT. COULD BE AN ISOLATED 12+ INCH READING BUT WITH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOWFALL INTENSITY...THIS WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT. ADDED SAN JUANS TO ADVISORIES WITH CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HEADING OVERHEAD THAT AREA AND GOOD MOISTURE TO AFFECT PASSES. KEPT CO VALLEY ZONES OUT OF ADVISORIES FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN TODAY TO SEE WHERE 12Z MODELS PROG FRONTAL FORCING. VALLEYS WILL DEFINITELY START PRECIPITATING AS RAIN AND AM EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. BY THE TIME COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE ENTRAINING INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014 THE SHORT AND MIDRANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST TWO NIGHT FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN EACH MODEL SOLUTION CONCERNING THIS WEEKENDS STORM AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE STRONG TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING STEADILY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE ABOUT 3-6 HOURS FASTER IN MOVING THE TROUGH THROUGH... WITH THE MAIN TROUGHLINE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z SUN NGT/YON MORNING. THE ECMWF DOESN'T HAVE THE TROUGH IN THAT POSITION UNTIL ABOUT 12Z. THROUGHOUT THE SUNDAY NIGHT THE FLOW AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WIND DIRECTION IS A GOOD OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL DIRECTION FOR ONLY A FEW ZONES AND AREAS...THE NORTHERN FLATTOPS...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE GORGE FROM SOUTH OF MONTROSE TO OURAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT AS A RESULT...AND POPS WERE BOOSTED IN THE APPROPRIATE ZONES. EACH MODELS SHOWS A DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING. FOLLOWING THIS THERE IS GREAT DISCONTINUITY IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER DIGGING PACNW TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WED NGT AND THU...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THROUGH A MUCH LESS DEVELOPED FEATURE IN THE FORM OF TWO WEAKER SHORTWAVES WITH LESS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FRIDAY APPEAR WILL BE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY AS EACH MODEL CONTINUES WILL A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AS ANOTHER LOW STRENGTHENS WELL OVER THE WEST COAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014 LAYERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A 10 TO 20 CHANGE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF ALL AIRPORTS AND TAF SITES. THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PASSES. A STRONGER STORM WILL EFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND FREQUENTLY OBSCURED MOUNTAINS AND PASSES AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOST POSSIBLE OVER KCAG...KHDN...KSBS... KASE...AND KEGE && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018-019. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAM LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...CC  FXUS65 KGJT 092134 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 334 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 WE ARE STARTING TO BE MORE IMPACTED BY THE ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE ARE UNDER THE DIFFLUENT REGION ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THIS ZONE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM MOTION AIDING IN BRINGING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE MOSITURE IS A BIT MORE ROBUST OVER WESTERN COLORADO WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL MAKE FLOODING A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN DUE TO TRAINING OR BACK BUILDING STORMS. BUFKIT PROFILES IN OUR EASTERN CWA SHOW WARM CLOUD DEPTH ALSO APPROACHING 8000 FEET MAKING RAIN PRODUCTION QUITE PROFICIENT. PVU AND JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS SUGGEST ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STORMS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. THIS LOBE OF ENERGY IS APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST BECOMES ESTABLISHED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR IN THIS FETCH LOWERING PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER JET DYNAMICS AND ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW LOOK TO KEEP SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS. THE DRYING AND FAST STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR FRIDAY AND DID BACK OFF ON TEMPERATURES A TAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...PVU FIELDS IN ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE DEFINED WAVE TRANSLATING SW TO NE OVER OUR CWA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS FORM LATE BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ATTM SO POPS ARE QUIET. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERS OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES PUSH CLOSE BUT NOT QUITE TO NORMAL. WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BE DIRECTED OUT OF THE MONSOONAL REGION OF NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS HAPPENING IS MORE IN SYNC BUT TIMING STILL A BIT OF AN ISSUE. GFS STILL ON THE QUICKER SIDE AND WITH THE EURO HOLDING OFF ON MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MONDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS GIVE SOME SMALL POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA ON MONDAY SO ROLLED WITH THIS FOR NOW. COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS MOVE IN THROUGH EARLY WEEK AND THOUGH THE MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTED BY LATE WEEK SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY STAY IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR OR FALLING BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KVEL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AFT 06Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...JOE  FXUS65 KGJT 092340 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 540 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 WE ARE STARTING TO BE MORE IMPACTED BY THE ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE ARE UNDER THE DIFFLUENT REGION ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THIS ZONE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM MOTION AIDING IN BRINGING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ROBUST OVER WESTERN COLORADO WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL MAKE FLOODING A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN DUE TO TRAINING OR BACK BUILDING STORMS. BUFKIT PROFILES IN OUR EASTERN CWA SHOW WARM CLOUD DEPTH ALSO APPROACHING 8000 FEET MAKING RAIN PRODUCTION QUITE PROFICIENT. PVU AND JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS SUGGEST ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STORMS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. THIS LOBE OF ENERGY IS APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST BECOMES ESTABLISHED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR IN THIS FETCH LOWERING PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER JET DYNAMICS AND ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW LOOK TO KEEP SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS. THE DRYING AND FAST STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE FLOODING CONCERNS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR FRIDAY AND DID BACK OFF ON TEMPERATURES A TAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...PVU FIELDS IN ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE DEFINED WAVE TRANSLATING SW TO NE OVER OUR CWA. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS FORM LATE BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ATTM SO POPS ARE QUIET. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERS OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES PUSH CLOSE BUT NOT QUITE TO NORMAL. WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BE DIRECTED OUT OF THE MONSOONAL REGION OF NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS HAPPENING IS MORE IN SYNC BUT TIMING STILL A BIT OF AN ISSUE. GFS STILL ON THE QUICKER SIDE AND WITH THE EURO HOLDING OFF ON MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MONDAY. BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS GIVE SOME SMALL POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA ON MONDAY SO ROLLED WITH THIS FOR NOW. COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS MOVE IN THROUGH EARLY WEEK AND THOUGH THE MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTED BY LATE WEEK SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY STAY IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015 SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR OR FALLING BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AFT 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRIDAY BUT WILL BE A MORE ISOLATED NATURE. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...TGJT  FXUS65 KGJT 012103 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 303 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WITH AZ AND NM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS MORNING'S KGJT 12Z SOUNDING REPORTED 0.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW). THIS WAS UP SHARPLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO BETTER MOISTURE HAS MADE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD AS EXPECTED...BUT BY 2 PM CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS. EXPECT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE NORTHERN LIMIT FOR THIS DIURNAL CYCLE. BUT MORE EXCITEMENT IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ONCE DAYTIME HEATING FADES. EVEN SO...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS STRIP OF HIGHER VORTICITY STAYS STRETCHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN EDGE. THEREFORE THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN FOCUS MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD TOWARDS MORNING. SUNDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SEEN THIS WEEK MOVING OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE AIDED BY A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA BEFORE REACHING THE I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS MODEST WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 METERS SUNDAY MORNING SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOMINATED BY WARM CLOUD PROCESSES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH EXTEND TOWARDS THE CO-WY BORDER WITH UP TO 1.3 INCHES NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KTS. SO EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS THAT FORM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER THE STEADY SHOWERS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH STRATIFORM-LIKE PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND 45KT JET STREAK MOVING INTO SW COLORADO WILL HELP AID IN LIFT. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION BUT AM THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS GIVEN THE AMT OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT REASSESS WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BEING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE ACTIVITY PICKS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NW COLORADO. NW COLORADO WILL BE IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 45 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WITH DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN BEHIND IT INTO NE UTAH. THE STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN SUNDAY WITH 7H WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND 5H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS FROM THE WEST. PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-70. STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER MOTION AND BETTER CHANCE OF SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE DRY AND MOIST AIR. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ON MONDAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS THE SHORTWAVE AND JET LIFT OUT OF THE REGION TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FOR A FAIRLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SHUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A DRIER PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND DRY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS RETURN AS EACH MODEL RUN APPEARS TO PUSH THE TIMING AHEAD BY 12 TO 24 HOURS. SO WILL TAKE THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW COLORADO AND SE UTAH THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LOCAL +SHRA AND G30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN ILS CIGS FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCD. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOW TO WANE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING. OVER THE SAN JUAN/ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. NE UTAH AND THE NW COLORADO CORNER WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...EH/MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...EH  FXUS65 KGJT 201045 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 345 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 KGJX Doppler Radar continues to show snow falling across the forecast area this morning as the first in a series of storm systems continues to sweep across the forecast area. Short term forecast models are showing a lingering possibility of snow showers through late morning with a greater probability focusing over the Mountains. A lull in the winter weather is anticipated this afternoon into the early evening hours. Snowfall rates will pick back up once again initially in Southeastern Utah and Southwestern Colorado this evening as the next storm system approaches from the southwest. Snow probabilities will increase and spread north and east after midnight Saturday morning as this second portion of the storm system pushes east. Abundant snowfall is expected over the mountains with this system in particular southwestern facing slopes and the San Juan Mountains. Numerous Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through Saturday night. Please check the weather forecast before you head out today and also check road conditons on UDOT and CDOT's web pages. Overall the short term forecast confidence is high. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 The current satellite water vapor image is showing two strong storm systems impacting the northern hemisphere this morning. The first is currently positioned off of the British Columbia coast with a strong jet stream pushing into coastal California. The second storm system is pushing northeast through the northern plains. The 0000Z ECMWF and 0600Z GFS20 have initialized well with these synoptic scale weather features and remain in good agreement through at least next Tuesday. Both forecast models are indicating that a ridge of high pressure will briefly build over the intermountain west on Sunday, providing another break in the weather for our forecast area. However, this break will be short lived as the third and stronger storm system begins to enter Eastern Utah Sunday evening. This stronger system will have significant upper level jet support which will result in greater snowfall rates and windier conditions through Tuesday. Behind the system on Tuesday the general atmospheric flow over the forecast area will become west northwesterly. This west northwesterly flow will shift the focus from the San Juan mountains to the northern mountains and northwestern facing slopes. In addition the cold northwesterly flow will also result in much colder temperatures for the second half of the upcoming week. Overall the extended forecast confidence is high. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 344 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 KGJX doppler radar continues to show snow showers around the forecast area this morning, especially over the mountainous terrain. Light snow continues to be reported at a majority of the terminals as well with generally VFR cigs and IFR vis. GOES IFR satellite derived IFR probability is indicating IFR to LIFR conditions in the Grand Valley and also in the vicinity of Cortez and Durango. Reduce vis will be possible through roughly 9:00 am MST in these locations but should improve by mid morning with VFR then prevailing through this afternoon. The second wave of a multi-day storm will begin to impact the terminals Friday night persisting through Saturday. Overall forecast confidence is moderate to high. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Saturday night for COZ003-008-014. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ021>023. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Sunday for COZ009-010-012- 013. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Saturday night for COZ017-018. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for COZ019. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Sunday for COZ004. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Saturday night for UTZ025. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for UTZ022. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for UTZ028. && $$ SHORT TERM...Larry LONG TERM...Larry AVIATION...Larry