FXUS63 KFGF 141752 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE REVOLVES AROUND THE SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA. WE ISSUED AN FLS FOR THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN GRANT AND OTTER-TAIL COUNTIES. 88D ESTIMATES SUGGEST ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS... YET REGION IS DRY ENOUGH AND RATES SLOW ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING NOT LIKELY. THE 88D ESTIMATES SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 0.50 INCH/HOUR MOVING THROUGH THE FLS AREA. HRRR SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IF STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PWATS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH FOR OUR AREA...GTR 2 INCHES...DECREASING FORCING WITH DRIER AIR INTRUDING FROM THE NORTH AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HOLD WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS DOWN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 UPDATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ADJUST FOR QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF CONVECTION. LEANED ON THE HRRR THROUGH 18Z AND SREF THROUGH 00Z TO BLEND. HAVE UPPED THE QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED HEAVIER RAINS IN PROGRESS. A PWS IN HOFFMAN/GRANT COUNTY/SHOWS 1.8 INCHES MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9AM. BIAS FFMP/LEGACY AND DUAL POL QPE A TAD HOT BUT HAVE GENERAL IDEA. WILL BLEND TEMPS DOWN IN CLOUDS AND RAIN AREAS AS WELL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 HAVE CANCELED SVR TSTM WATCH FOR FAR SERN ND COUNTIES. INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SERN SD AND DECREASING LLJET HAVE LIMITED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO NERN SD AND OUR SOUTHERN FA. SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SERN ND INTO NWRN MN... ROUGHLY ALG AN ABR-FAR-BDE LINE. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED FROM ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN. THIS AREA SHUD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FA AND EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN WRN NE... THROUGH ECNTRL ND INTO NORTHWEST ONT. DEWPTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CONTINUE TO PILE UP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY... AND WITH A WEAK 850 LLJET EXTENDING UP FROM ERN SD... SHUD MAINTAIN AN AREA OF +1000 MUCAPE INTO SERN ND AND PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN THROUGH THE MORNING. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW PUSHING FM NCNTRL SD INTO NERN SD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND PERHAPS PENETRATE TO THE MN BORDER WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. THE COMPLEX IS MOVING AWAY FROM ITS AREA OF BEST DEEP LAYER SHEER AND BUMPING UP AGAINST A SOMEWHAT WARMER MID LEVEL WARM POCKET... SO LONGEVITY IS IN QUESTION. EXPECT THIS EARLY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING. THAT ALL SAID... H7 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT FURTHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN ND AND NWRN MN WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT KICKS UP A BIT. WITH THIS...AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHUD DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEEP CONVECTION INCREASE... FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA AND THEN EXPANDING A BIT NORTHWARD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NOW QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHUD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO MONDAY MORNING... SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL HELP PUSH WARM MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...700MB TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AS CAPPING SHOULD MINIMIZE COVERAGE. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER CANADA MOVES BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD HELP PUSH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN DAY 5 AND DAY 7 EAST END OF UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH AS UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS THIS PERIOD. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON THU NIGHT IN NORTHWEST ZONES AND TAKE OUT PRECIP ON FRI. TEMPS INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED...FRI AND SAT AND DECREASE A DEGREE FOR THU FROM YESTERDAYS RUN. && .AVIATION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND BUT NOT MOVE MUCH...CONTINUING FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF KFAR TO AROUND KBDE. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIFTING NORTHWARD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH KFAR AND KBJI SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHRA AND TS...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES UNDER DEEPER MOISTURE. NORTH OF THE FRONT...KDVL...KGFK AND KTVF HAVE ALL GONE TO VFR CIGS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. REMOVED PRECIP MENTION AS THINK THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THAT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THOSE TAF SITES. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...EWENS SHORT TERM...EWENS LONG TERM...HOPPES AVIATION...JR  FXUS63 KFGF 130838 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 338 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Frontal boundary at 08z along a Roseau-Grand Forks-Valley City line and slowly sagging southeast. It will stall out nr a Bemidji-Fergus Falls line late today and remain in that position into tonight. Eventually enough moisture developing north of the boundary combined with a weak short wave moving northeast will cause a few showers or isolated t-storms to develop mainly overnight along and north of the boundary. Until then for the daytime today high clouds moving slowly east to the north of a short wave in South Dakota. A few storms in E SD south of Aberdeedn moving slowly east and will maintain a dry fcst. Issue cloud cover wise today is degree of haze from the smoke and high cloud thickness. Smoke forecast indicates thicker smoke holding S Manitoba into northern into central and western ND. Put in some smoke in NW fcst area after coord with BIS. Day shift can evaulate sky cover condition/haze. It will be a warm day, though not as hot as Tuesday. But still 85 to 90 in many areas...with cooler readings DVL basin. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Thursday will see a 500 mb short wave move east-northeast along the ND/SD border and into nrn MN by 00z Fri. Frontal boundary Bemidji area to near Wahpeton. Near this boundary enough forcing should case a few storms to form and enough CAPE (1500-2000 j/kg) so that a few strong storms are psbl. SPC has area near the front in marginal risk. There is some moisture at 850 mb along the front in northern MN, centered around Bemidji/Park Rapids. That area would seem the best chc for isold SVR late Thu aftn/eve. Shear though is quite weak. A much stronger short wave and surface low will move northeast into the southern Red River valley Friday late day/evening. With this feature I could see a few severe storms south and east of the sfc low in warm sector in WC MN Fri late day/evening with a more stratiform rain NW of the low center in central into NE ND. High pops for precipitation Friday night..then rain chances diminishing Saturday as the low moves northeast. For early Sunday, the previous system has exited to the northeast, but small chances for showers will linger generally along and north of the US Highway 2 corridor. A cool, dry airmass pushes through with high pressure behind this system, but cloud cover and a nearby upper trough will keep highs in the 50s and 60s for Sunday and Monday. For early next week, a deep upper trough digs into the west, developing southwest flow aloft for the Northern Plains. Model confidence is quite low for next week's forecast as the individual models struggle to realize a few quick moving disturbances aloft. If these disturbances pass through the forecast area, they would likely result in some scattered showers, so did leave small chances in. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Expect a little more smoke around the TAF sites for this TAF period, so kept a FEW250 layer to account for that. May be a little thicker at times, but that is always hard to judge. Otherwise wind speeds will continue to remain on the lower side as well. Not sure vsbys will be affect, so will continue to monitor that for now, and not mention in the TAFs. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...BP/Riddle AVIATION...Godon  FXUS63 KFGF 131426 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 926 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Will let current forecast ride for now. Only issue in the near term is smoke density. Will limit smoke mention to the morning and see how things go. UPDATE Issued at 702 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Short wave moving east into far eastern SD with some high clouds in SE ND and western MN. These clouds moving east. Otherwise satellite shows a clear sky west of Grand Forks...but we shall see how the high level smoke as the sun rises. Overall did increase sky cover some over MN due to the high clouds. No other changes. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Frontal boundary at 08z along a Roseau-Grand Forks-Valley City line and slowly sagging southeast. It will stall out nr a Bemidji-Fergus Falls line late today and remain in that position into tonight. Eventually enough moisture developing north of the boundary combined with a weak short wave moving northeast will cause a few showers or isolated t-storms to develop mainly overnight along and north of the boundary. Until then for the daytime today high clouds moving slowly east to the north of a short wave in South Dakota. A few storms in E SD south of Aberdeen moving slowly east and will maintain a dry fcst. Issue cloud cover wise today is degree of haze from the smoke and high cloud thickness. Smoke forecast indicates thicker smoke holding S Manitoba into northern into central and western ND. Put in some smoke in NW fcst area after coord with BIS. Day shift can evaluate sky cover condition/haze. It will be a warm day, though not as hot as Tuesday. But still 85 to 90 in many areas...with cooler readings DVL basin. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Thursday will see a 500 mb short wave move east-northeast along the ND/SD border and into nrn MN by 00z Fri. Frontal boundary Bemidji area to near Wahpeton. Near this boundary enough forcing should case a few storms to form and enough CAPE (1500-2000 j/kg) so that a few strong storms are psbl. SPC has area near the front in marginal risk. There is some moisture at 850 mb along the front in northern MN, centered around Bemidji/Park Rapids. That area would seem the best chc for isold SVR late Thu aftn/eve. Shear though is quite weak. A much stronger short wave and surface low will move northeast into the southern Red River valley Friday late day/evening. With this feature I could see a few severe storms south and east of the sfc low in warm sector in WC MN Fri late day/evening with a more stratiform rain NW of the low center in central into NE ND. High pops for precipitation Friday night..then rain chances diminishing Saturday as the low moves northeast. For early Sunday, the previous system has exited to the northeast, but small chances for showers will linger generally along and north of the US Highway 2 corridor. A cool, dry airmass pushes through with high pressure behind this system, but cloud cover and a nearby upper trough will keep highs in the 50s and 60s for Sunday and Monday. For early next week, a deep upper trough digs into the west, developing southwest flow aloft for the Northern Plains. Model confidence is quite low for next week's forecast as the individual models struggle to realize a few quick moving disturbances aloft. If these disturbances pass through the forecast area, they would likely result in some scattered showers, so did leave small chances in. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 702 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 VFR is anticipated thru the the pd. Main issue will be any MVFR vsbys in haze due to smoke psbl in NE ND (DVL). Winds north up to 10 kts DVL, GFK today L/V FAR/TVF/BJI. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Voelker SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...BP/Riddle AVIATION...Riddle