FXUS62 KFFC 251151 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 751 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013/ .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TAP TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH BEST COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL AND ISENTROPIC FORCING. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE WEDGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA. AS THIS SWINGS EASTWARD THE PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. HPC QPF LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM OTHER GUIDANCE SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS RESULTING IN AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN FAR NORTH GA TO A HALF OR THIRD INCH ELSEWHERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT AS MAJORITY OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE A SLOW STEADY SOAK. THE CWA WILL BE SOCKED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS. HAVE STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND SIMILAR TO OBSERVED VALUES FROM YESTERDAY AT NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NORTHEAST LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT TO 70 DEGREES TODAY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED UPPER FORCING POTENTIALLY ATTAINING ELEVATED CAPE. UPPER RIDGING FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD INTO REGION FROM THE WEST BY THURSDAY THOUGH THE EXITING SYSTEM LOOKS TO STILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST. TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT...THOUGH STILL ONLY HIGHS MAKING IT TO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING WRAP-AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BAKER && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES SOME 5 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW UPPER 40S MAKE SNEAK INTO THE FAR NE ZONES...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE METRO AREAS AND SOUTH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPS ON SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWFA ON TUESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. NLISTEMAA && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... IFR/LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND IFR PROBABLY STICKING AROUND INTO AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 22Z BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER CIGS...POSSIBLY LOWER IN AREAS OF -RA. PRECIP LIKELY FOR MANY SITES TODAY THROUGH 22Z THEN TAPERING OFF. SHOULD LINGER ON LONGER NEAR KAHN. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THOUGH NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN TAF. WINDS EAST TODAY UNDER 10 KTS SHIFTING NE TONIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND ENDING TIME OF PRECIP. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 70 61 76 57 / 80 50 20 10 ATLANTA 71 62 76 59 / 60 30 10 10 BLAIRSVILLE 67 57 74 55 / 80 40 20 10 CARTERSVILLE 71 60 78 58 / 60 20 10 10 COLUMBUS 79 67 81 62 / 50 20 10 10 GAINESVILLE 68 60 75 58 / 80 40 20 10 MACON 76 64 79 59 / 70 40 20 10 ROME 72 60 79 59 / 60 20 10 10 PEACHTREE CITY 73 60 77 57 / 60 30 10 10 VIDALIA 78 66 79 60 / 60 40 40 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA AVIATION...BAKER  FXUS62 KFFC 222355 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 650 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE MOST SUSTAINED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE OVER THE FRONT. CONTINUE TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NE GEORGIA. ANOTHER NEW BATCH IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AND ALL THIS IS DOING IS PRIMING US FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN COMING DAYS WHICH WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO FLOOD ISSUES. BY TONIGHT...WITH APPROACHING MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE...SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO RESIDE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BY 06Z. MEANWHILE...WEDGE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS WHICH LOOKS TO ADD A FURTHER FOCUS FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN BETWEEN BANDS WHERE THE RAIN WILL ABATE. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AS WE HAVE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT SETUP AND WEAK SHORTWAVES BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PERIODS OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH QPF WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN EVENT HOWEVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT AREAWIDE INCLUDING THE PROSPECTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 100 KTS AS WELL AS COMPOSITE INDICES SUCH AS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER SHOWING VALUES IN EXCESS OF 6 INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GIVEN THESE FACTS THOUGH...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE INSTABILITY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW MUCH WEDGE CUTS OFF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND HOW MUCH GULF COAST CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE AREA. FEELING AT THIS MOMENT IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC ENOUGH THAT NONE OF THE ABOVE MITIGATING ISSUES WILL MATTER AND WE WILL SEE SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITIES WILL BE THE FACT THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE QLCS AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WIND FLOW PATTERN. DEESE .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW LIFTING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL EXITING THE STATE. BEHIND THE CONVECTION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE WITH A MARKED CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE NEXT LATE SUNDAY...AND ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS AGREE WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION...TIMING DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH THE NEXT FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. FOR NOW THE ECMWF TRAILS THE SLIGHTLY FASTER /6-12 HRS AHEAD/ GFS. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. 31/01 && .HYDROLOGY... AN ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA WITH DETAILS ON RAINFALL INCLUDED WITHIN IT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... CEILINGS REMAIN AT DIFFERENT LEVELS BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO MVFR...AND THEN IFR PROBABLY BY 06Z. RAIN PREVAILING OVER ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMCN AND KCSG...BUT SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY BY 06Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON WINDS AND CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 55 60 53 64 / 90 70 90 90 ATLANTA 55 64 55 60 / 90 80 100 90 BLAIRSVILLE 49 55 48 60 / 90 70 100 100 CARTERSVILLE 55 62 52 61 / 90 80 100 90 COLUMBUS 57 72 59 61 / 80 70 90 80 GAINESVILLE 53 55 50 62 / 90 80 100 90 MACON 56 72 60 67 / 60 70 80 90 ROME 55 63 52 59 / 80 80 100 90 PEACHTREE CITY 55 67 55 61 / 90 80 100 90 VIDALIA 57 75 60 71 / 30 50 70 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...41