FXUS63 KDDC 200023

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

723 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019



...updated aviation section...



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019



A strong synoptic trof with copious moisture advection ahead of it will

influence our weather through tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will

spread across the FA starting early in the morning. Heavy rain of a

few inches will be likely by the time all said and done. Cannot rule

out isolated hail, but the overall severe threat looks on the marginal

side. Tomorrow will be considerably cool with highs 20 degrees below

normal. The highs may not be cool enough depending on which model you

buy into as far as the frontal boundary is concerned. 



.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019



Warm air advection showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday

with the ongoing threat of heavy rainfall. The synoptic trof will eventually

pull out of the area by Tuesday evening. The next opportunity of storms

comes Thursday. Severe thunderstorms may occur with this second system.

There will be bouts of showers and thunderstorms (some severe) through

the rest of the extended period. Highs will trend to near normal through

much of the long term.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

Issued at 719 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019



A light wind field will continue through this evening while winds

become more southeasterly - eventually increasing to around 15

knots by the middle of the overnight as the pressure gradient

develops. Strong warm boundary layer temperature and moisture

advection develops by early Monday as overspreading showers and

scattered thunderstorms with ceilings developing and deteriorating 

between about 10z and late morning. Rain will persist though the 

day before turning more to a low stratus overcast with drizzle 

(LIFR probable) due to cool side of boundary and persistent 

easterly upslope surface flow.





&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC  49  59  54  71 /  40 100  80  20 

GCK  49  58  50  68 /  60 100  70  20 

EHA  53  65  47  71 /  70  90  50  10 

LBL  54  63  51  74 /  60 100  70  10 

HYS  44  53  51  70 /  20 100  80  50 

P28  52  61  58  76 /  10 100  90  30 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday 

afternoon for KSZ031-045-046-064>066-077>081-087>090.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Sugden

LONG TERM...Sugden

AVIATION...Russell