FXUS65 KCYS 230210 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 810 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013 ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THAT AREA SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAVE SINCE ENDED. A TIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST QUESTION LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD SPREAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE EXPECTED WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN FOG SOME. THE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MOVE TO OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE STARTING AFTER 09Z. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD DEPTH DEEPENS. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON THURSDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA LASTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE MADE MINOR FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS IN A RECRNY UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013 A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF. SHOWERS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD AND COULD REACH THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BUT THAT MAY BE PUSHING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING AS COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS GIVEN 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENING. STRATUS DECK HAS HELD FIRM ALL DAY AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE. THE STRATUS WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST THIS EVENING...BANKING UP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO THE LARAMIE VALLEY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RATCHET UPWARD TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD EASILY SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TONIGHT SUCH AS AROUND DOUGLAS. WITH THE STRATUS DECK HOLDING FIRM THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ANYWHERE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN THE WEST UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CUT BACK ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE ARE DIFFICULT TO HANDICAP...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. CERTAINLY A CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS MEETING SOUTHEAST WINDS...SO SHOULD CAP WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. STATUS SHOULD STAY LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN A STRONG PUNCH OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRATUS SHOULD ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FOR PLACES SUCH AS CHEYENNE AND DOUGLAS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRY AIR MAKE IT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A SHORT DISTANCE COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WHERE THAT LINE SETS UP IS THE MAIN QUESTION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES CONDUCIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WITH TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD. STORMS VERY WELL MAY FIRE ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013 WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY IN SWLY FLOW WITH SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT FAR. PATTERN THEN REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF THAT WILL HOLD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. PERIODIC UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION BUT HARD TO SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE BEST FOR THIS. RIGHT NOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKING SOMEWHAT BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013 THROUGH 06Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE. AFTER 03Z...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING EAST TO WEST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT AT RAWLINS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013 LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT. WHILE THE FOG WILL BURN OFF THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WYOMING ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WEILAND SHORT TERM...LIEBL LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL  FXUS65 KCYS 240145 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 745 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013 THE FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST PART OF THE CWA HAVE ENDED AS OF 0030Z. MAIN ISSUES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS HGAVE BEEN GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 MPH FROM KLAR TO KDGW. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF IN THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER AND NEAR THE PANHANDLE. THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WIND ADVISORY STARTING SOON AND RUNNING THROUGH 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE LOOKS GOOD. CLOUD BASES SHOULD LOWER OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOG WILL LIKELY BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM DUE TO THE TIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR DRIZZLE AS THERE IS LESS OF A CLOUD DEPTH THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. IN A RECENT UPDATE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013 FOG TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO ERODE ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BUT MOST OF IT IS FINALLY GONE. AT THIS TIME THE SUMMIT WEBCAM SHOWING SOME LINGERING FOG BUT IT IS NO LONGER DENSE AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE QUESTION IS IF...OR MAYBE WHEN WILL THE FOG SET BACK IN. MODELS DO SHOW MOISTURE HUGGING THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SLIDE EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE WITH DRY AIR QUICKLY ERODING ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MAINLY LOOKING AT LOW STRATUS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE DIFFERENCE CURRENTLY DRIVING WINDS ACROSS CONVERSE COUNTY AND ALBANY COUNTIES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH OCCURRING AT LARAMIE AND DOUGLAS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE STRONG GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST. WILL BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL WINDS DO RELAX. THE OTHER WIND CONCERN IS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING 50 TO 60 KT WINDS BELOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WHERE 50 MPH WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION THAT THESE WINDS COULD BE DIRECTED TO THE SURFACE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A HIGH WIND WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED AND MAY NEED TO ADD AN ADVISORY TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. TURNING TO FRIDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE SOME 80S OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT DEPENDS HOW FAST THE CLEARING OCCURS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT THE BEST SET UP BUT COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 2000 PLUS J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE AND THE NAM AND GFS BOTH MODEL SOUNDING NOW SHOWING THE CAP BREAKING...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 40-50 KTS... SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE ISOLATED TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST...SIMILAR TO A RETREATING DRY LINE LIKE OCCUR IN WEST TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THUNDERSTORM COULD ACTUALLY DEVELOP WESTWARD FRIDAY EVENING. NOT LIKELY...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013 UPPER TROF WILL HOLD OVER THE PACIFIC NW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING THE CWA UNDER A GENERALLY SW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND LIKELY HELP TO SET OFF SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS. SUNDAY LOOKING MAINLY DRY FOR NOW THEN SOME UPTICK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER TROF WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGS IT MORE BODILY ACROSS THE REGION AND MORE QPF WHILE ECMWF SPLITS THE ENERGY...CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THUS HAVING LESS QPF OVER THE CWA. EITHER WAY AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LOOK A DECENT BET WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY THEN TRENDING DOWN A BIT TUESDAY AND WEDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013 THROUGH 15Z...WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN BECOMING VFR. VFR ELSEWHERE. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013 CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAY WITH MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST WITH LESS WIND EAST AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT IN THE RAWLINS AREA. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-096. && $$ UPDATE...WEILAND SHORT TERM...LIEBL LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL  FXUS65 KCYS 060920 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 320 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013 SHALLOW AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER AREAS OVER AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO MID MORNING. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER THAT AREA IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PLAINS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THE SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM FALLING MUCH. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...THE PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN CAPPED. MODELS MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE MOIST THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND PAINTS SOME QPF OVER THE CWA. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN WASHINGTON NEAR THE FEATURE REVEALS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER... WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LOWS SHOULD BE MORE MILD THAN THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THAT OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL THETA AXIS WILL BE OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA AND CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 800 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS MOVING A LARGER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE NAM AND SREF ARE NOT AS DEEP. THE MAJORITY SOLUTION WOULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THAT SCENARIO AND DECREASE SHOWERS OVER THE CWA IN THE EVENING...WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY IN THE FAR NORTH. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PLACING THE FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013 SATURDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AND WITH VERY LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. MONDAY...CONTINUED WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH A THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SIDNEY LINE. WEDNESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD... LIMITING AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013 AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z OVER AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LOCAL IFR CEILINGS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...BUT FOG DEPTH WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED AND MAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS IN AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT THU JUN 6 2013 FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK MAINLY DUE TO THE CURRENT GREEN AND NON CRITICAL FUELS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CWA STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER FURTHER EAST...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. ISOLATED LATE DAY GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. THEN ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WEILAND LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...WEILAND FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND  FXUS65 KCYS 151614 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 1014 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1013 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2013 LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY ERODING LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA AND CLOUD BASES INCREASING. CLOUD TOPS NEAR KCYS AT 1430Z WERE 11500 AGL...SO THE CLOUD THICKNESS WILL MAKE FOR THE SLOW IMPROVEMENT. CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BY SLOWING WARMING. THE RESULTING FORECAST RAOBS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOW THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA AND THE LOW LEVELS CAPPED. SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM. MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...THE STILL MOSIT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. MADE MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013 ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY VERY FEW CLOUDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS LATE THIS MORNING BUT MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013 ABNORMALLY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE DRIZZLE...FOG AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOG AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING BUT AS MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NO THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY MOIST PROFILES AND LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT REMAINING DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP OVER THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013 ELONGATED UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SW BY THE WEEKEND. SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SNEAK UP THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS CHAIN AND OVER THE CWA MAINLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING CUT OFF OVER THE WEEKEND THUS THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD SHUNT THE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH AND REDUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA AT THAT TIME AND ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1013 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013 MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. BY 20Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUL 15 2013 BREEZY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS OR THIS WEEK FOR THAT MATTER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH MORNING FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHER THAN TODAY IT WILL MAINLY BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR MONSOON MOISTURE STARTING SUNDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WEILAND SHORT TERM...LIEBL LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...WEILAND FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL  FXUS65 KCYS 072332 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 432 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 203 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ENHANCED SNOW BANDS NICELY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO...CLOSE TO WHERE THE NAM AND GFS CORRECTLY PREDICTED THE MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDING WOULD BE...WHILE IN CONTRAST...OVER OUR COUNTIES...PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LESS THAN OVER COLORADO BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE CHEYENNE WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS A MEDICINE BOW...TO WHEATLAND TO NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. OUR FORECAST TEAM HAS OPTED TO CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES FOR NOW...BASED ON WEB CAMS... SNOTEL CHECK...MODEL PROGNOSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO FAVORED LOCATIONS. SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT PREVAILS PRODUCING A DRY DAY. WARMING TREND WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY NORTH FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD MAXIMA BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW EATER DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP DUE TO FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING PRODUCING TYPICALLY LOCALIZED WARMER OVERNIGHT MINIMA ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR DOWNWIND OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE. SUNDAY...NEAR PERFECT DAY FOR MILD WEATHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS WITH DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND OUR ABNORMALLY HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS...NEAR 5700 METERS...AIDING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LEE TROUGH. STARK CONTRAST AS GFS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MAXIMUMS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN COOLER NAM MOS...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE NAM SHOWING MORE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD OPACITY...THICKNESS...EXTENDING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES DOWNWIND OF THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER OREGON AND IDAHO. BASED ON LOCAL KNOWLEDGE OF HOW DOWNSLOPING ADDS CONSIDERABLE WARMTH...PREFER THE WARMER GFS MOS OVER THE NAM MOS...AND BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO BULLISH WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD THICKNESS OVER OUR COUNTIES. SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH ZONAL...WEST TO EAST...FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING...WINDS...AIDING THE RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...LOCALLY WARMER ALONG THE SPINE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG RANGE IS A PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. EARLIER IN THE WEEK...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND A PLEASANT SPRINGLIKE DAY WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OR ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER MAY REACH 70 DEGREES BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND EVOLUTION...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL DEVELOPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS SIMILAR THAN THE ONE THAT WENT THROUGH TODAY...BUT THIS ONE WILL BE COLDER AND NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE A GREATER POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE BEST AREA FOR MODERATE OR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW...BUT MODELS SHOW THE JET ENERGY SPLITTING AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN THE START OF SPLIT FLOW FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. PLACES SUCH AS CHADRON AND TH EAST CENTRAL WYOMING PLAINS MAY NOT GET MUCH OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PERCENT ALONG THE I-25 AND I-80 CORRIDORS...HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE 20S BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AND END TUESDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY MAY BE MUCH COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER...PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW THIS WEAK LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST AND NOT IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA TOO MUCH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 425 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014 OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE TO NORTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 203 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014 MINIMAL ISSUES...THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS AS WINDS AND HUMIDITIES APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1101 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014 MELTING SNOW CAUSING SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL STREETS CURRENTLY UNDER WATER IN LUSK WYOMING AS THE NIOBRARA RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS. SHERIFFS OFFICE THERE REPORTED FLOODING WAS SLIGHTLY WORSE THIS MORNING...COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. INTO KIMBALL COUNTY NEBRASKA...MANY ROADS UNDERWATER DUE LARGELY TO OVERLAND FLOODING. THE FLOODING IS OCCURRING EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH SNOW TO MELT. THE BIGGEST FACTOR IS LIKELY THE FROZEN GROUND. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAVE FROZE THE GROUND AND IS LIKELY NOT LETTING SNOW MELT SOAK INTO THE GROUND. ALSO LAST FALL WAS VERY WET WHICH PROBABLY IS NOT HELPING ANY. THE FROST DEPTH A FEW DAYS AGO WAS 4 INCHES IN CHEYENNE BUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...IS NOW COMPLETELY THAWED. THESE FLOODING AREAS SHOULD NOT BE FAR BEHIND IN LOSING THEIR FROZEN GROUND LAYER. SHOULD START TO SEE RELIEF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS RUNOFF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA AND WATER STARTS TO SOAK INTO THE GROUND. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR WYZ112- 114. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RUBIN LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...JAMSKI FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN HYDROLOGY...RUBIN/LIEBL  FXUS65 KCYS 282141 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 341 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD TODAY...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. EXPECT MAYBE SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE CELLS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. FURTHER TO THE EAST...THERE SHOULD BE TOO MUCH CIN JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT A STRAY THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...BUT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALL MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NUDGING EASTWARD...WHICH WILL LOWER TSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FOR TUESDAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINNING TO FLATTEN AND DRIFT SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY. INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN THE I25 CORRIDOR AROUND 90 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS SECONDARY TROF THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVIDENCES OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE WILL BE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 TO 45KTS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK TOO FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT DUE TO LACK OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTIONS AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS. THURSDAY-SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT WAVE OF CONCERN COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM AND WETTING RAINFALL CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...REC AVIATION...REC FIRE WEATHER...TJT  FXUS65 KCYS 071233 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 533 AM MST MON DEC 7 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 AM MST MON DEC 7 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. WYDOT OBSERVATIONS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO HIT WARNING CRITERIA IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS INCLUDING ARL/BRX/VDW WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. ADDED BORDEAUX TO THE INHERITED WARNING STARTING IMMEDIATELY. NAM 850 MILLIBAR CAG- CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 50 METERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...PEAKING AROUND 70 METERS BETWEEN 00Z-09Z TUE. H7-H8 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 50-60 KNOTS OVER THE WIND CORRIDORS TODAY ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NE. AS SUCH...WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH TUE AM WITH THE STRONGEST WIND LIKELY OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WHEN H75 WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 60 KTS AFTER 3Z TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY CAUSED A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND AT COLEMAN IN PLATTE COUNTY LAST EVENING. PARAMETERS ONLY GET BETTER WITH TIME...SO ADDED THAT ZONE TO THE WARNING. EARLIER NAM SOUNDINGS FROM DOUGLAS SHOWED A WELL MIXED PROFILE WITH 50+ KNOTS NEAR THE SFC BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. ISSUED A WARNING BASED ON THIS...HOWEVER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP HAS SHOWN A RATHER DRAMATIC INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD ACROSS EASTERN WY IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS WILL PROBABLY IMPACT MIXING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON CLOUD THICKNESS...SO CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING FOR THAT ZONE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TONIGHT W/EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 120+ KT H25. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT W/ STRONG DOWNWARD OMEGA SPREADING ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN CYS- IBM OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW 50 TO 60 KT WINDS WITHIN AN IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FARTHER EAST. THIS MAY BE A SHORT DURATION...BORA- TYPE EVENT FOR THE PLAINS. BIG DIFFERENCES IN WIND PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND GFS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUE. THE NAM SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT OWING TO A MORE MODEST GRADIENT COURTESY OF THE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GFS AND ECM HANG ON TO 50+ KTS OF 750 MB FLOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO THIS BRINGS INTO QUESTION JUST HOW STRONG THE MIXING EVENT WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS 30-35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM CYS-SNY...AND NORTH TO BFF. THE MET IS MUCH LESS BULLISH. WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPORAL EXTENTION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 21Z...JUST IN CASE. WINDS ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT INTO TUE EVENING AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN...BUT WARNING-CRITERIA WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WIND CORRIDORS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AM AS THE H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO 60 METERS AT 12Z. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ALONG/E OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE IN ASSOCIATION W/ THE NEXT WAVE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON DEC 7 2015 STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL APPEARS MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT PAST FRIDAY. MODELS GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE ALL MODELS ARE GENERALLY NOT PRODUCING PRECIP...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA AND NRN WYOMING. STRONG WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS IS CONDUCIVE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN IF A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE SNEAKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...POP IS BELOW 10 PERCENT SINCE IT IS VERY UNLIKELY ANY PRECIP WILL REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD OVER MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG 150KT JET MAX MOVES INTO WYOMING ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE A HYBRID BORA/MIXING EVENT AS A QUICK SHOT OF COOL AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. KEPT WINDS ON THE HIGH SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA LIKELY OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF I80 AND I25...AND HIGH WIND CRITERIA POSSIBLE NEAR CHEYENNE...LARAMIE...AND FURTHER NORTH BETWEEN DOUGLAS AND TORRINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PERIODS OF WINDY OR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF I25. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING BY FRIDAY...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES KEPT POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 35 TO 45 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH SINCE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE I80 CORRIDOR. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS SHOWS THIS ENERGY MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE FRONT RANGE PAST NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 317 AM MST MON DEC 7 2015 WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...INCLUDING KCYS...INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND KRWL AND KLAR THROUGH TONIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 317 AM MST MON DEC 7 2015 VERY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WIND GUSTS OF 65 TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. WHILE MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ106-107-110-116- 117. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ101. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WYZ108-118-119. NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ020-054. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...CLH