FXUS62 KCAE 230539 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 139 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH DYNAMICS THOUGH. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE GONE IN 2-3 HOURS. STILL HAVE FLS NORTHEAST PART UNTIL 0645Z. OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CAROLINA/TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWARD. THE UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTHWARD AND BY SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE EJECTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ADJUST TO A FLATTER RIDGE WITH INDICATIONS OF TROUGHING AS THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES PERSISTING IN THE 1/75 TO 2 INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG TRIGGER OR DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE A CONCERN AS SEVERAL PLACES CURRENTLY HAVE RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. THROUGH THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US WITH A TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FURTHER AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK SYSTEM MOVEMENT WILL SLOW AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING ARRIVAL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL THROUGH THE LONG TERM EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...AND WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS NEAR 2 KFT MOST LOCATIONS...WILL HAVE A BIT LOWER NEAR 1 KFT AGS AND OGB. DNL PICKED UP OVER 0.40 INCH OF RAIN DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR AT DNL BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ADDITIONAL GROUND MOISTURE...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP 09Z- 12Z FOR IFR CIGS BELOW 1 KFT BUT MVFR VSBYS AROUND 4 MILES IN FOG. 12Z-14Z TIME FRAME ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR MAINLY FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE VICINITY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTER 02Z SUNDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONE. JUST MENTIONED SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LATER IN THE EVENING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$  FXUS62 KCAE 131407 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1007 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013 .SYNOPSIS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE PUSHING VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN TO MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST HAS BEGUN TO RETROGRADE AND WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CAE WSR-88D CURRENTLY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS TOWARD THE COAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES WESTWARD AND COMBINES WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST OF THE AREA PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES. WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 12 KFT THIS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RESERVOIRS NEAR CAPACITY THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. AS SUCH WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME CELLS TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE LOWER AS LOSS OF HEATING WILL LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED BY CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED TO THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO AL/GA. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW A GOOD DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE A GREAT AND POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS OF POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT BELOW CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAINLY AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS. ALTHOUGH RIDGE WILL BE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE CWA AND MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SOILS WILL SLOW THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOULD START TO DRY OUT NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE UPPER TROF RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AS THE WEEK ENDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...EXPECT A MORE TRADITIONAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MIX OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT TAF SITES CURRENTLY REMAINS LOW SO WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS FROM 18Z THROUGH 14/03Z. WITH THE MOISTURE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IS INCREASING...FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH CIGS AROUND 1 KFT AND ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE FURTHER INCREASES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS AS WELL AS SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018- 020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065- 077. && $$  FXUS62 KCAE 131851 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 251 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013 .SYNOPSIS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE PUSHING VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. A RETURN TO MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND THE GENERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS AND NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW COUNTRY. SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN CSRA WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AS HEATING OCCURS. AS CELLS DEVELOP AND PRODUCE OUTFLOWS ADDITIONAL CELLS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 12 KFT THIS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RESERVOIRS NEAR CAPACITY THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. AS SUCH WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME CELLS TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE LOWER AS LOSS OF HEATING WILL LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED BY CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED TO THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE A GREAT AND POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS OF POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT BELOW CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAINLY AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WE WILL GET A REPRIEVE FROM OUR WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD START TO DRYING OUT. MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE UPPER TROF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AS THE WEEK ENDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...EXPECT A MORE TRADITIONAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS 70 TO 75 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MIX OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP WITH SOME CELLS AROUND THE AGS/DNL AREA. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERSECT AND DEVELOP NEW CELLS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING HOWEVER SOME CELLS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MOISTURE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT IS INCREASING...FOR NOW HAVE ADJUSTED CIGS DOWN TO 700 FEET AND WILL FURTHER ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS AS WELL AS SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018- 020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065- 077. && $$  FXUS62 KCAE 020854 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 454 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will weaken Thursday ahead of a cold front. The front will move through the forecast area Thursday night. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The main forecast problem is fog this morning. Based on the GOES LIFR probabilities, HRRR, and observations in the piedmont we have posted a dense fog advisory in the area extending from Newberry County to Lincoln County. High low-level moisture and elevation has helped cause enhanced fog in this location. Elsewhere in the forecast area, low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling has helped cause areas of stratus and fog early this morning. Observations in the area showed a decrease in dew point temperatures from southwest to northeast. The KCAE 88D showed 1000-foot wind of 10 to 15 knots. The slightly drier near-surface layer and a little mixing may continue to limit dense fog and we have held off issuing a dense fog advisory for now. The moisture is shallow because of ridging at the surface and aloft. Heating and mixing should dissipate the stratus and fog later this morning. Wind should be light with the ridge over the area today. Followed the consistent temperature guidance. Nocturnal cooling and low-level moisture should help support fog again tonight but it may be limited because of upper cloudiness. The models indicate considerable upper moisture moving into the area from the west north of a flattening upper ridge. Forecasted patchy fog. The temperature guidance was consistent. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The ridging over the area will continue to weaken Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. The front should move through the area Thursday night. It will be warm ahead of the front Thursday. Followed the temperature guidance with highs in the middle 80s. These readings will be close to records for the date. The record high at Columbia Metro for November 3rd is 88 set in 1974. The record at Augusta Bush for the date is 86 also set in 1974. Mixing associated with the front should help hold up temperatures Thursday night. Leaned toward the higher temperatures guidance. Moisture associated with the front will be limited with h85 westerly flow ahead of the front. Followed the guidance consensus with pops near 20 percent south to 30 percent north. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north. The NAM and GFS depict light rainfall amounts of less than one-tenth of an inch. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A dry air mass will dominate through the medium-range period behind the front. It will likely be breezy just behind the front Friday. The GFS and ECMWF MOS were in agreement with pops less than 20 percent through Tuesday. The models were close with seasonably cool temperatures Friday through Saturday. The ECMWF MOS indicated higher temperatures compared to the GFS later in the period. We followed an average of the guidance. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low level moisture combined with clear skies and light winds will set the stage for fog and low stratus development. Latest CAE VWP indicating a LLJ around 10 kts. Latest surface obs across the area early this morning show a wide range of conditions from VFR to IFR. Daytime heating should result in a return to VFR across the area by 15Z. Surface high pressure will promote light winds and mostly sunny skies for later today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog possible Thursday. Scattered showers and associated restrictions are possible Thursday night as a cold front crosses the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ018-020- 025-026. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99  FXUS62 KCAE 072333 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 633 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 .SYNOPSIS... There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. However, the moisture should remain shallow limiting the rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... One more night of arctic air over the forecast area as a 1036mb surface high remains centered over the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. A positively tilted upper trough continues to dig southeastward across the southern Plains and Texas this evening. Satellite imagery showing higher clouds expanding over the region ahead of the approaching upper trough. Airmass remains quite dry with precipitable water values less than 0.25 inches and no precipitation expected overnight despite some increasing moisture. Temperatures again will be the story as they are already dropping below freezing again and should drop into the lower to mid 20s with some upper teens in the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region. The high level cloud thickness will play a role in radiational cooling tonight so there is a bit of uncertainty will how cold it could get, colder if clouds stay thinner. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The models continue to indicate just shallow moisture in a low- level onshore flow with more significant moisture and lift associated with the upper trough staying south of the forecast area over the Gulf Coast and Florida Region. Lift associated with a northern stream system is also forecast to stay north of the area Monday and Monday night. The guidance is in good agreement with just low pops and little or no qpf. The chance of freezing rain is still too low to include in the forecast. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS keep temperatures above freezing. Believe any precipitation will hold off until well in the afternoon and be light with limited evaporative cooling potential. The SREF guidance has been consistent indicating the chance of measurable freezing rain less than 10 percent. Followed the guidance consensus for the low temperature forecast. Readings should finally remain above freezing for the first time since just after Christmas. Cloudiness favored the lower high temperature guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Isentropic lift and moisture in an onshore flow may support rain Wednesday, but believe the moisture will remain shallow with upper support lacking. The GFS and ECMWF display rising 500 mb heights. Leaned toward the more consistent ECMWF MOS and forecasted just slight chance pops. Cloudiness in a wedge-ridge pattern favored the lower high temperature guidance. Moisture may become deep ahead of strong upper troughing Thursday and Friday as shown by both the GFS and ECMWF. The associated cold front may sweep through the area late Friday or Friday night with drying in its wake for Saturday and Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 40 to 60 percent Thursday and Friday with the ECMWF pops highest. Used an average which was close to the ECMWF ensemble mean. The models indicate high shear mainly Friday but instability is too questionable to add thunderstorms to the forecast for now. The MOS has been consistent with above normal temperatures through much of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure center to gradually weaken but remain centered near the region. Very dry low level air in place should ensure VFR conditions for most TAF sites for most of the 24 hour TAF period. Expect increasing high and mid level cloudiness. Weak isentropic lift ahead of an approaching weather system could provide some MVFR CIG restrictions on Monday, but confidence limited due to very dry low level air currently in place. Kept CIGs at just above MVFR after 08/12z at TAF sites. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of light precipitation and flight restrictions Monday night through Friday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$