FXUS63 KBIS 050916 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IN THE WEST. CURRENTLY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING AND CENTRAL MONTANA. THE CONVECTION HAD DECREASED IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS IMPULSE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THIS AFTERNOON THE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHEN SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WYOMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHORTWAVE SENDS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER IS QUITE HIGH AT 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT; AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST FAVORED AREA TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN IS THE BEACH/WILLISTON AREA TO STANLEY AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON CONTINUATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SATURDAY FROM MCS TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FORM AND BE MAINTAINED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FORECAST HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...ABOVE THE 96TH PERCENTILE WITH A MODERATELY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH WITH SKINNY CAPES. SO CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. THE INITIAL AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/QPF SIGNAL FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA TOWARD DEVILS LAKE SATURDAY. IN THIS REGION AN INCH OF RAIN IS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TRAINING/PERSISTENT STORMS. WILL MENTION THIS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADD MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO FORECAST GRIDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER AS AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL H500 RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE WESTERLY CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS ROCKIES WILL ENHANCE THE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING FOR HIGHS INTO THE 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A TROUGH IN THE FLOW FORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2015 MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KDIK. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MAINLY REMAIN VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO MVFR AT KISN AND KJMS FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER/DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...JV  FXUS63 KBIS 100911 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 411 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SITES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY CREATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST...SPREADING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INITIALLY AN UPPER LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTHWEST US REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE WARM WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS DEPICT A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF CAPE BUT LIMITED SHEAR OWING TO FAIRLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND GENERALLY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. A BIT TO FAR INTO THE FUTURE TO PICK HEAVY RAIN BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD SEE GOOD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SEVERE OUTLOOKS PLACE MARGINAL THREAT FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS MAY KEEP THE STORM TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNEDAY AND THURSDAY THE RIDGE MOVES EAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST IN GENERATING A CLOSED LOW OVER ALBERTA WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BEING THE FOCUSING MECHANISM. THE FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLDOWN AND THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE GIVES LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY VERSES UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THIS THE ECMWF AND GFS BECOME QUITE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPING A WARM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE GFS DEVELOPS A BROAD TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED THE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE 15 DEGREES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE WARMER MODEL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...AC  FXUS63 KBIS 251550 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 950 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 937 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON DENSE FOG...AND TIMING OF ITS ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION. GOES-R IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE SOME CLEARING ACROSS GOLDEN VALLEY...SLOPE...AND HETTINGER COUNTIES...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPACED TOO WIDELY TO JUSTIFY EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE TURNING FOCUS TO THE SNOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR FROM BEACH TO DICKINSON AND MANDAN. WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT TO THE VISIBILITY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED AT HAZEN EARLIER AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES FURTHER SOUTHWARD...BUT GIVEN WEB CAMERA IMAGES AND AWOS/ASOS OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 1230 UTC WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH 17 UTC. VISIBILITY AT BOTH MANDAN AND GLEN ULLIN HAD BEEN IMPROVING UP THROUGH 12 UTC...BUT THEN 1/4SM-TYPE VISIBILITY BECAME PREVALENT AGAIN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES...WHICH TIPPED THE SCALES TOWARD ISSUING THE ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AREAS OF FOG SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING...THEN CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FAR SOUTH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...AREA OF SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. IN THE LOWS WAKE...THE SKY HAS CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EAST...PERHAPS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLEAR SKY AREAS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED PRIMARILY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING AREA OF LOW STRATUS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW AS WE BELIEVE THE FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET MY SOUTH WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAINLY IMPACT SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MUCH OF MINNESOTA...AS A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHUNS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. MAY STILL SEE A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER FROM FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE 00 UTC ECMWF IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION AND SUGGESTIVE OF SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END ADVISORY-TYPE SNOW IN DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES...BUT THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WE RELIED ON TO BUILD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SUGGESTIVE OF LOWER STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS /ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES/. THEREAFTER...A FRESH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY A SURFACE HIGH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL THUS PROMOTE A PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 10 F IN MANY AREAS AND THE CONSENSUS OF 00 UTC MOS OUTPUT STILL SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD BELOW- ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD EVEN PROMOTE LOWS DROPPING BELOW FORECAST VALUES AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK WILL STILL FEATURE A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES TROUGH...BUT THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO STAY LINED UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE OFFERED UP VARYING IDEAS ABOUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ONTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE 12 UTC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 00 UTC ECMWF THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL IN ND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL CARRYING LOW-END POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD IN RESPECT TO THAT POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS OF DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES MAY HINGE ON UNCERTAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION TOO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 937 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 DENSE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN ND WILL SURGE SOUTH AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FOR KDIK-KBIS-KJMS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ND AFTER 18 UTC TODAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>034-040>042-045. && $$ UPDATE...SCHECK SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...SCHECK  FXUS63 KBIS 010642 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1242 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019 Little change was made with this update. High clouds continue to make it difficult to observe the extent of IFR/LIFR stratus that extends at least from Mobridge to Linton, though recent GOES-16 IFR probabilities suggest the area encompasses much of far south central ND. Recent RAP/HRRR cycles continue to suggest that the area of low stratus may propagate north-northeast through 12 UTC, possibly impacting Bismarck and Jamestown. We are continuing a mention of patchy fog associated with the potential propagation of this stratus deck, as Linton earlier observed a visibility reduction to 3/4SM, though as mentioned previously turbulence in the layer immediately above the surface may ultimately favor a low stratus deck rather than prolonged fog. Otherwise, lows in western ND were increased slightly overnight where temperatures at 06 UTC are still in the upper 20s to mid 30s F thanks to the robust low-level warm air advection ongoing there. UPDATE Issued at 852 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 The 01Z RAP has caught on to a trend of lowering cloud heights across south central North Dakota, and now paints a large swath of dense fog developing overnight east of the Missouri River and generally between Highway 200 and the South Dakota border. Added a patchy fog mention to the forecast to account for this. While confidence in the low clouds is high because it is already being observed, other parameters (such as high clouds and stronger winds just above the surface) do not favor fog development. Will continue to monitor closely. UPDATE Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 Made some minor adjustments to overnight temperatures. Lows are expected to occur by around 9 PM CST, with slowly rising temperatures thereafter. Otherwise, blended in current observations and trends for this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 Low temperatures will be a challenging forecast tonight, particularly as the low-level air mass continues to modify on warm air advection, but the 12 UTC guidance numbers are relatively closely clustered with lows ranging from around just below zero at Jamestown to the lower 20s in western ND. A surface warm front is expected to move through all of western and central North Dakota by Friday morning, yielding favorable southwesterly boundary layer flow and a significantly-warmer air mass. While uncertainty remains in the impact of the pre-existing snowpack on surface warming, there has been strong run-to-run and model-to-model consistency in this warmup and so we are relatively confident in temperatures hitting the 30s for all of western and most of central North Dakota. Low to mid 40s are likely across the southwest. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 Long term forecast highlights include accumulating snow and blowing snow Sunday and Monday, and the return of dangerous wind chills next week. Guidance suggests that a shallow cool frontal zone may drop southward through northwest and central ND on Saturday, and boundary layer winds are forecast to become more east- southeasterly, which is less favorable for warming given the broad upslope nature of their trajectory. Moreover, this scenario may yield significant stratus development, especially near and to the cool side of the shallow frontal zone, wherever it winds up. As a result, forecast highs Saturday are cooler in most locales. Thereafter, the 12 UTC GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models and their ensembles continued calling for southwest flow aloft developing by Sunday as a mean 500 mb trough develops in the western U.S., and they also continue to agree that a strong shortwave trough will eject across the northern Plains Sunday into Monday. There remains a broad consensus in the potential for accumulating snow and blowing snow in this timeframe, although GEFS plumes show a large spread in potential QPF outcomes, which is not surprising given that even the deterministic 12 UTC GFS and ECMWF show two subtly different outcomes to this event, with the ECMWF now stronger but still further north than the GFS. Regardless, flow aloft is expected to be progressive, which means that this shortwave may exit quickly, but could also allow for another to be quick on its heels with another chance of snow by Tuesday. In addition, guidance continues to advertise a return of Arctic air, particularly behind the second trough passage when 850 mb temperatures may reach -30 C over western and central ND by Wednesday, likely heralding renewed wind chill hazards. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1242 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019 MVFR to occasional IFR stratus will impact much of east central ND and the James River valley through Friday morning. A separate area of lower stratus with IFR to LIFR ceilings and patchy fog located in the KMBG to K72L region as of 06 UTC could move to the north-northeast overnight, possibly impacting KJMS, with a non-zero possibility of impacting the KBIS terminal for a time in the 07 to 11 UTC time frame, as well. Otherwise, VFR weather will prevail over western ND through the 06 UTC TAF cycle, and VFR conditions will likely encompass all but the area near the Canadian border in northwest and north central ND by Friday afternoon and evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...CJS