FXUS63 KAPX 012001 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 401 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO BACK UP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST TOWARD MID WEEK. THAT WILL BRING MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN TO PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...EASTERN TROUGH ACTUALLY SPLIT INTO TWO STREAMS WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A NORTHERN BRANCH DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS BUILDING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OHIO VALLEY UPPER WILL RETROGRADE A BIT DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATER TUESDAY. STATIONARY/WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM KENTUCKY NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL GET NUDGED NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL VEER MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE AND TRY TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION CAN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. WEATHER: MIX OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THICKER MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DETROIT. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS. LOW LAYERS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP FROM PUSHING TO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO SAGINAW BAY DURING THE NIGHT...BUT WILL PUSH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY. PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND MORE FILTERED SUN ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA (ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOES). WINDS: MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/TUESDAY...PROBABLY NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH WEAKER WINDS FORECAST IN THE MIXED LAYER. TEMPERATURES: A LITTLE TRICKY TONIGHT DEPENDING ON CLOUD THICKNESS AND WINDS WHICH WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN DECOUPLING AND GOING LIGHT VERSUS STAYING UP A BIT (CALM VALLEYS/BREEZE HILLTOPS??). THINK WE MAY SNEAK INTO THE 40S IN SOME OF THE LOW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE TIED TO CLOUD COVER...PROBABLY A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAN ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND UPPER MICHIGAN (MORE LOWER-MID 70S). && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY CONVECTION FROM THE DAY TIME SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES AND THE BROAD 500 MB LOW CONTINUES TO FILL. CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL THINK THAT THIS COULD BE LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE GFS, WITH IT'S LITTLE CENTRAL ILLINOIS STORM, IF IT IS RIGHT THEN NOTHING WOULD HAPPEN HERE MOST LIKELY. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY OF THE GFS TO CONVECTIVELY FEEDBACK, THE ECMWF WITH LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. LEFT THE REGION THAT HAD IT IN, BUT DROPPED TO PATCHY FOG AS AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BELOW 500 MB. THE ECMWF HAS A "FOG LOOK," WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WEDNESDAY...WITH ALL THE MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH, THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS LIKE ITS PRETTY DIRTY, SO AS THE TEMPERATURES RISE DURING THE DAY WILL EXPECT THAT THE INSTABILITY IN THE CENTER OF THE STATE WILL BUILD AND THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT. THINK THAT THIS WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BECAUSE OF THE WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURES, HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOW. THINK THAT MAINLY THE SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE LEFT OVER SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS WOULD AGREE. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WOULD EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS WOULD STOP OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF (12Z) HAS DECIDED THAT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. IGNORED ITS QPF BLOB IN NW LOWER AND E UPPER OVERNIGHT, THINKING THAT THE DRIER GFS IS MORE CONSISTENT, AND IS PROBABLY RIGHT. SO HAVE THE POPS FALLING OFF OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH STREAMING OVER US, AND THE WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN, INSTABILITY WILL FIRE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER N LOWER. THINK THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN NC AND NE LOWER AS THE HEAT OF THE DAY GETS GOING IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT, THEN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN NC LOWER AND E UPPER AROUND 18Z SO THE BEST POPS WILL BE IN NE LOWER WITH THE TROUGH. OVERNIGHT, WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN 30%, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SKY WILL CLEAR OUT. SFC GRADIENT WIND LOOKS DECENT AS THE GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO HAVE A STEADY WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS. THINK THAT THIS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE THAT IS IN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM FORMING FOG OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FRIDAY, THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST, THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN IN THE EAST IF YOU BUY THE GFS. HOWEVER, WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND THE DRY FORECAST ON THE ECMWF, WILL LEAVE THE DRY FORECAST. SATURDAY, THE 500 MB JET RETREATS TO THE NORTH, AND THE BERMUDA HIGH IS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST. SUNDAY, THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IS LESS TODAY. THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO E UPPER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOW BEGINNING TO TILT THAT WAY, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO E UPPER IS A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE GFS, THAN THE ECMWF. THE FRONT MOVES INTO N LOWER OVERNIGHT SO THE RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. MONDAY, THE 500 MB JET SINKS TO THE SOUTH OVER MICHIGAN, AND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL LAID OUT OVER N LOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH PERSISTENT FETCH AND GUSTINESS ON LAKE HURON KICKING THE WAVES UP A BIT SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY. SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO RUN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER ON TUESDAY...AND THUS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AS WELL AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NTS SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...JSL MARINE...JPB  FXUS63 KAPX 260808 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 408 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...GENERATING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY...KEEPING UNSETTLED AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER IN THE AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE CHART SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/ LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A 1011MB CENTER ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER AND A 1012MB CENTER OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A WARM FRONT CONNECTS THE TWO LOW CENTERS...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THE MINNESOTA LOW BACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUNS NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/CENTRAL MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO/ MINNESOTA BORDER...SOME HINTS OF A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER CROSSING CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WITH PERHAPS A POCKET OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. BUT THIS WAVE IS AIDING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHICH MAY HAVE ITS OWN MCV ALONG WITH IT PER RADAR IMAGERY). ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER/FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TO THE NORTH OF A NARROW AXIS OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A RETROGRADING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...GETTING PUSHED BACK TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LITTLE STRONGER CENTER OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...THEN EVENTUALLY DRIFT EAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND PUSH OUT INTO LAKE HURON SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION...AND ANY THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. TODAY/TONIGHT: WEATHER...INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN TO FILL IN BEHIND PRETTY QUICKLY. GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1.25-1.50 INCH VALUES ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN...AND THAT WILL EVENTUALLY "FOLD" INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING. ALREADY AXIS OF DEEP LAYER QG FORCING IN PLACE...AND WILL SEE INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM DIGGING SHORT WAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. DEEP LAYER MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE THE RULE TODAY...AND WHILE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...THE INTERESTING THING IN THESE SCENARIOS IS THAT IT WON'T TAKE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO GENERATE SOME CAPE. SO NOT UNREASONABLE TO THINK THAT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE. BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN WHERE BETTER HEATING MORE LIKELY ALONG WITH STRONGER SHEAR...BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS ON THIS SIDE OF THE LAKE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY STORMS DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE PRETTY HIGH GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 175 PERCENT NORMAL) DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH (AROUND 3KM) AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ECHO TRAINING. LIKE THE IDEA OF POTENTIAL QPF TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND WILL TRY (LIKELY UNSUCCESSFULLY) TO ADJUST TIMING BASED ON TRENDS (E.G., A POTENTIALLY DRY PERIOD FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER ONCE INITIAL PRECIP MOVES THROUGH). PRECIP THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LOW CLOUDS (POSSIBLY LAKE AUGMENTED) MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT (SOME LATE DRIZZLE NORTHWEST LOWER??). WINDS...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. SOME DECENT WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE DECK ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING PER KAPX VAD WIND PROFILE...25-30KTS BELOW 3000FT MSL. PROBABLY WON'T TAKE MUCH MIXING TO GET 20-30MPH GUSTS (AND PERHAPS HIGHER)...WILL DEPEND ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTANT HEATING. COLD FRONT SLIPS IN TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWEST FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. POST-FRONTAL WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG/ GUSTY. TEMPERATURES...WILL PLAY TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE TODAY GIVEN THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/PRECIP TRENDS. PLAN TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...WITH 70S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER (WARMEST OVER NORTHEAST LOWER). LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S EAST OF M-33 CORRIDOR. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 A FALL LIKE PATTERN LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS, BEFORE WE REBOUND TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN. (7/27)SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC LOW AND THE CUT OFF 500 MB LOW SLOWLY MEANDER EAST A BIT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES INTO W UPPER BY 00Z WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST EAST OF THE BIG LAKE. THIS SETS UP THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH A DECENTLY PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT THE WINDS WILL GET BREEZY. THIS BRINGS IN SINGLE DIGIT C AIR OVER N LOWER AND E UPPER. BY 00Z. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 4C. WITH THE N LAKE MICHIGAN AT 20C, THIS GIVES US DELTA TS OF 14C. WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE MODELS ARE WNW FOR THE MOST PART. THE INVERSION HIGH ON THE GFS DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE AROUND 5000+ FEET. WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL GIVE ADDED BOOST TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. 500 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL TO AROUND -19 TO -20C. SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MID LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN TO 6.5 C/KM. AS THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, THE CLOUD DEPTH CONTINUES TO INCREASE. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, THE CLOUD DEPTH CLIMBS PAST 15000 FEET BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WITH THE SFC-850 MB DELTA T AROUND 15-17C AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WE ARE LOOKING WITH SOME IDEA THAT WE WILL GET WATERSPOUTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ALL CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT. (7/28)SUNDAY...AS THE 500 MB LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION, THE LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WATERSPOUTS AND THUNDER OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, AS WE PUSH TOWARD NIGHT, THE 500 MB LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. BY 06Z, THE CENTER, ON THE ECMWF IS EAST OF THE GEORGIAN BAY, AND ON THE GFS IT IS ENTERING LAKE HURON. IN EITHER CASE, WE SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS AND THE THUNDER BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...(7/29)MONDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. THINK THAT THE PRECIPITATION THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW IS A LITTLE OVER-BLOWN AS THE MOISTURE, THE FORCING, THE INSTABILITY ALL MOVE EAST. (7/30)TUESDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DAY DRY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC TROUGH. SO WILL KEEP THE RAIN AS SHOWERS. (7/31)WEDNESDAY, INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT AT THIS POINT DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY STRONG, SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE. (8/1)THURSDAY, THE MODELS LOOK TO DIVERGE A BIT AS THE ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY FLAT TROUGH, WITH LITTLE RAIN. SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO IDEAS TOGETHER FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS. RESTRICTIONS: UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED PLN AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEST SHRA POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE AT PLN /PERHAPS BRUSHING TVC/ BUT EVEN HERE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR. FOR THE DAYTIME FRIDAY....SHOWERS /AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON PLN/TVC/MBL AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AT APN. CIGS WILL LOWER FRIDAY EVENING WITH RAIN TAPERING BACK TO SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT PLN AFTER 00Z. THUNDER: CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW...WITH A SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR PLN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. LLWS: 1.5KFT WINDS TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHEAR LAYER MIXES OUT. WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST 10KTS FRIDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN NEARSHORE ZONES TODAY... MARGINAL GUSTINESS AND CHOPPY SEAS DUE TO LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ZONES DURING THE DAY TODAY. WAVES ALREADY LIKELY PUSHING 4-5 FEET FOR WESTERN PORTION OF STRAITS TO SEUL CHOIX POINT ZONE. APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING WINDS WILL VEERING AROUND TO A WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITHIN ALL NEARSHORE ZONES BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WATERSPOUTS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSL SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...ARNOTT MARINE...JPB  FXUS63 KAPX 270728 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 328 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A DAMP AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013 CURRENTLY, FIRST THE MAIN SFC TROUGH WENT THROUGH, NOW THE SECOND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS MOVING THROUGH E UPPER AND NW LOWER. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE BREAKING OUT ON THE COLD FRONT, BUT FOR NOW, NO NEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDER AND RAIN IS WELL TO THE EAST OUT OVER LAKE HURON AND INTO ONTARIO. THE 500 MB LOW IS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TODAY...THE 500 MB LOW SINKS SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN EAST TOWARD MICHIGAN. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR UNDER THE 500 MB LOW, THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHORT TERM. INITIALLY, THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SINK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SO THAT BY 00Z, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS AROUND +6C IN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20C IN THIS REGION. SO WE END UP WITH A 14C DELTA T. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED BANDING, BUT RATHER LOTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE WATER. WHILE THE CONCERN FOR RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS A CONCERN ANOTHER WAVE MOVES UP THE COLD FRONT AND GENERATES MORE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT AROUND 70F SO WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO KICK OFF. TONIGHT...AS WE GET INTO THE NIGHT, THE THUNDER THREAT DOESN'T ENTIRELY EVAPORATE AS THE 500 MB LOW MEANDERS EAST OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z. THIS BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR OVER THE REGION. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN +2 AND +4C ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. SO WE WILL BE SEEING DELTA TS OF 16-17C. COUPLE THAT WITH THE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5 C/KM THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH LIMITED OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN NOW TURNS TOWARD THE MARINE INTERESTS AS WE GET INTO GOOD CONDITIONS FOR COLD AIR FUNNEL TYPE WATERSPOUTS. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS WE BEGIN TO GET CLOUD DEPTHS OF NEAR 20000 FT. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DELTA TS AND THE WINDS AT 850 MB OF <35 KT. WE END UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM'S UPPER LOW WATERSPOUTS SECTION. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013 DEEP 500MB LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT A SURPRISE THAT THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OUT WITH SOMETHING LESS THAN CHAMBER-OF-COMMERCE WX. THE LOW WON/T BE IN ANY BIG HURRY TO DEPART...BUT IT GRADUALLY WILL...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES ALOFT BY TUESDAY MORNING. SO SOME IMPROVEMENT IS IN STORE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK... BUT GETTING FROM HERE TO THERE WON/T BE FUN. POPS AND TEMPS EARLY ON WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. SUNDAY...500MB TEMPS WILL LOWER TO -19C...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVING UPPER LOW. SOUNDS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY...BUT IT ISN/T COMPARED TO THE COOLNESS OF THE LOW LEVELS (850MB TEMPS 5 TO 6C). SO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN/T TERRIBLY STEEP (700-500MB OF 6C/KM OR JUST A BIT HIGHER). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF OUR INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE BELOW 650MB. BUT DELTA T/S IN THE MID TEENS...ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE...AND DEEP CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW...WILL CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE-ENHANCED SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL TEND TO KICK POPS HIGHER...CATEGORICAL DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI...LIKELY ELSEWHERE. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN FAVORED LAKE-ENHANCED REGIMES ALONE FOR NOW...THOUGH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO THINK WE WON/T BE QUITE THAT UNSTABLE. WILL ADD SOME DETAIL TO POP/WX GRIDS...TO ACCOUNT FOR VARYING WINDS THRU THE DAY. WE/LL START OFF THE MORNING WITH WNW 1000-850MB WINDS...BEHIND A SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF THE SAULT. THAT LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO EASTERN SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY...AND AS A RESULT 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BACK SW-ERLY DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. TOWARD EVENING...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL START TO VENTURE ACROSS LAKE MI/CENTRAL UPPER MI...WHICH WILL VEER WINDS AGAIN IN THE EVENING. MAX TEMPS NEAR 60F TO THE MID 60S. SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...500MB LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVERHEAD TO NE OF GEORGIAN BAY. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE TO QUEBEC...THOUGH WITH A RESIDUAL LAKE-ASSISTED CIRCULATION NOT EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON UNTIL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THESE FACTORS ALL ARGUE FOR GRADUAL DIMINISHING POPS DURING THIS 24-HR PERIOD...ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST. WILL INCREASE POPS SUNDAY EVENING...PER ITEMS NOTED IN THE SUNDAY DISCUSSION ABOVE. POPS CAN DIMINISH TO CHANCY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL STRETCH POPS A BIT LONGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS NEAR 6C). HIGH PRESSURE POKING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FINALLY HELP PUT THE KIBOSH ON PRECIP...ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING A BIT OF SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY MOIST AND CLOUDY AIRMASS...WITH LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50F. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT...MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. REST OF THE FORECAST...BREAK IN ACTIVE WX WILL LAST THRU THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND THE BARE BEGINNINGS OF RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AN UPPER TROF WILL DIG SE-WARD FROM S CENTRAL CANADA...CROSSING THE NORTHERN LAKES WED NIGHT. GEM/ECMWF BOTH HAVE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND ARE PREFERRED. THAT SAID...DYNAMICS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT GETTING DRAGGED ACROSS NORTHERN MI WED/EARLY WED NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THURSDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL BE IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN BY THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013 SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TAKING ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PUSHING IT EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY... HOWEVER...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS: CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED TO IFR/MVFR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT A LITTLE MORE DETERIORATION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SHOULD GIVE MBL/TVC/PLN ALL A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS...WITH LOW MVFR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON AT APN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH VFR RETURNING TO MBL/TVC/PLN BY AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SPREAD RAIN BACK TOWARDS APN IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH WILL DELAY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HERE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS: WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING TO 5-10KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013 WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT, INSTEAD WATERSPOUTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA WILL FLOOD THE GREAT LAKES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GET THE PROCESS GOING. WHILE THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE TODAY, THE BETTER DAY WILL BE SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...JL LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARNOTT MARINE...JL  FXUS63 KAPX 210208 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1008 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRAW VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...THE DIURNAL CU FIELD HAVE EVOLVED INTO A STRATOCU DECK AFTER SUNSET OVER PARTS OF WI AND LK SUPERIOR. THIS IS ALONG AN 800-850MB MOISTURE AND THETA-E PLUME. A FEW SHRA A SINGLE TSRA HAVE EVEN MANAGED TO FIRE IN CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER EML SEEN FURTHER WEST (800MB TEMP OF 19C IN THE 00Z MPX OBSERVED SOUNDING). GIVEN WEAK VEERING OF THE SUB-800MB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THIS MOIST PLUME WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. STILL...IT CAN BE EXPECTED TO POKE OUT ABOVE NORTHERN LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD AND AFTER 09Z/5AM. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE. BUT GENERALLY HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A SMIDGE IN A FEW LOCALES. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING WINDS OFF THE DECK (TO 20-30KT 1-2K FT UP) WILL LIMIT FOG DEPTH AND INTENSITY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 CU FIELD DWINDLING IN NORTHERN LOWER...AND IS GONE FROM EASTERN UPPER. SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO EVENING CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME...NOTHING MAJOR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 SOME GREAT SUMMERTIME WEATHER OUT THERE TODAY...WHICH WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS OUT THERE AT THE MOMENT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES STILL INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER...AND BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPING PUMP SOME DECENT HEAT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH CURRENT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FAIR WEATHER CU OUT THERE...AND SPREAD ALL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN...BUT IN TRUE NORTHERN MICHIGAN FASHION...DEW POINTS HAVE STILL MIXED BACK INTO THE 50S IN SPOTS...COURTESY OF VERY DRY ONGOING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER. UPSTREAM IS A BAND OF SLIGHTLY THICKER CU...THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER THICKER 5-7KFT CLOUD DECK/MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL BE OF INTEREST TO US LATER TONIGHT...WHILE FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN IS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY CU WILL FADE BY SUNSET...WITH A LOSS OF CURRENT GUSTINESS. 12Z APX RAOB SHOWED THE TELL-TALE SIGNS FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOUT 925MB...BUT JUST NOT CONVINCED THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND WE LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST A FEW KNOTS OF WIND BLOWING. THROW IN A WELL-MIXED LAYER ABOVE 925MB AND THAT CHANCE APPEARS QUITE LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SOUTHERN/ EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE SLACK THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE...THE ABOVE-MENTIONED 800-ISH MB MOISTURE PLUME OVER IOWA/WISCONSIN SHOULD SLIDE THIS WAY OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY BETTER 850-700MB LAPSE RATES. CAN FORESEE THAT MANIFESTING ITSELF IN A PLUME OF THICKER CLOUDS FOR A TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 60S...BUT OF COURSE ANY SPOTS THAT DO MANAGE TO DECOUPLE (THERE'S ALWAYS A FEW!) WILL SLIDE INTO THE 50S. MUCH OF TOMORROW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY... THOUGH WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES TACKED ON AS THE CORE OF THERMAL RIDGING SLIDES IN ALOFT (H9 TEMPS PEAKING AROUND 25-27C). BETTER MOISTURE POOLING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT/UPPER WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. SHOULD HELP HOLD DEW POINTS UP A SMIDGE MORE THAN TODAY...BUT DO STILL EXPECT SOME INLAND SPOTS WILL MIX BRIEFLY INTO THE 50S. AS SUCH...AND GIVEN QUITE GUSTY CONDITIONS (MAX GUSTS UP AROUND 25 KNOTS)...HAVE NO QUALMS MAINTAINING A FIRE DANGER MENTION ONCE AGAIN. BY LATE IN THE DAY...WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE WHAT IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS GOING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN A RESERVOIR OF HEALTHY INSTABILITY (MLCAPES UP AROUND 2500 J/KG) AND MODEST SHEAR...CAN SEE A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPSTREAM. NOT SURE JUST HOW FAST THAT ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT DEFINITELY WORTH A CHANCE MENTION...MAINLY AFTER 21Z. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 LATEST LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A STABLE FOUR WAVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...WITH DEEP TROUGHING ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS RELATIVELY FLAT...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP THERMAL RIDGING AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVE PUSHED HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE GREAT LAKES THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED...OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN TROUGHING STAYS PUT OFF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS...KEEPING US IN A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WITH LINGERING WARM TEMPERATURES AND ANTECEDENT RAIN-FREE PATTERN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WITH A RIDGE RIDING SETUP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...TOPPING THE WEST COAST RIDGE. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING /HOPEFULLY/ SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BY ANY MEANS...AS TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SORT OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT. THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER SHEAR /ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK/ WILL ALSO REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THE M-68 CORRIDOR...WHICH LEADS ME TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THAT REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE INERTIA OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NE WI AND THE EASTERN U.P. WILL ALLOW SOME SORT OF SPILLOVER INTO NORTHERN LOWER LATER INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT ANY VIGOROUS CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS STORMS MOVE INTO A STABILIZING AIR MASS...AWAY FROM THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH NO DEEP MOISTURE FLUX DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. SPC MAINTAINS THIS IDEA WITH SLT RISK WORDING REMAINING OVER WI AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WITH THE MINUSES OUT OF THE WAY...DECENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SHOULD FIRE OFF AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DRY AIR POURS INTO THE MID LEVELS...AND DEEP POST FRONTAL MIXING WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO PLUNGE INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. SOME GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PLACES IN NORTHERN LOWER...IF PLACES SEE NO RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO DIP BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP COOLISH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH REMAINING SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL SEE SOME COOLISH NIGHT AS WELL...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 40S DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL OF THE MEDIUM/LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUPPORT STRONGLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE NATION/S HEARTLAND...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH 594DM 500MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE CWA SURPASSING 590DM AND H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 18 TO 20C WILL SUPPORT HEIGHTS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S...ASSUMING SOME INSOLATION. SUN WILL BE THE KEY WORD IF WE ARE TO GET VERY WARM IN THIS SETUP...AS PROXIMITY OF ANY MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE IN PROXIMITY TO THE REGION...AND ANY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD HELP TRIGGER RIDGE RIDING CONVECTION FOR THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST SURGE IN THETA-E ADVECTION...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RING OF FIRE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED. FROM THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...HIGHS COULD RANGE AS WARM AS THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY IF WE ARE CAPPED OFF IN THE SUN...OR STUCK IN THE 70S/80S IF WE SEE A BUSY CONVECTIVE PERIOD /WHICH WOULD BE MUCH APPRECIATED/. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR MORE CONTINUITY IN THE GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 VFR. LLWS LATE TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN INCOMING COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND EASTERN ND. WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST OFF THE DECK TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. COULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CUMULUS REMNANTS TONIGHT...AND ACTUAL CU ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...BREEZY SW WINDS WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AND/OR WAVES ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE WILL ALSO HAVE AN ENHANCED SWIM/RIP CURRENT RISK. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321- 322. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SYNOPSIS...ADAM SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE LONG TERM...SCHWARTZ AVIATION...JZ MARINE...LAWRENCE  FXUS63 KAPX 251954 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 354 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HELP TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE VERY MUGGY AIR WILL BE WITH US INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE COMING THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. OVERVIEW: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DOME OF HEAT THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHERN MICHIGAN FINDS ITSELF ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME FINALLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION ADDING SOME HUMIDITY TO THE INCREASING HEAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE EDGES OF THIS DEEP MOISTURE /AND JUST NORTH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING/...OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ARCING SOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON...TRACKING IN LINE WITH THE MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG THIS AXIS...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE. THROUGH TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A COOL FRONT /REALLY MORE OF A WINDSHIFT / SOUTH INTO OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMTH AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TOWARDS US FROM THE WEST. PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE WITH PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT CAN REACH OVERNIGHT. THROUGH EARLY EVENING: MCV MARCHING EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE CONTINUING TO SPAWN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER THESE AREAS...PERHAPS GRAZING CHIPPEWA COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED 40-50KT DEEP SHEAR...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...A LULL IN ACTIVITY CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKELY...FROM ABOUT 5PM ONWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 90S IN MANY SPOTS AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY STEP BACK FROM THOSE VALUES THROUGH SUNSET. TONIGHT: PRIMARY QUESTION IS WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE/LL LIKELY HAVE A LULL TO START THE PERIOD GIVEN MESOSCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT ALOFT AS MCV DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WILL BE WATCHING FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ACTIVITY GOING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAP...ESP AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP DURING THE EVENING. ORIENTATION OF MOISTURE PLUME AS WELL AS THE MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPAND EASTWARD. THIS IS IN LINE WITH AFTERNOON HRRR/RAP THINKING...WHICH WOULD BRING RENEWED CONVECTION TOWARDS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. GIVEN RECENT STRETCH OF DRYNESS AND LACK OF IMPRESSIVE FORCING FEATURE...WILL CAUTIOUSLY ADD A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF LIKELIES HIGHLIGHTING WHERE THE MOST LIKELY AXIS OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...BUT CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INTERESTING SETUP FROM A HYDRO STANDPOINT...WITH AN AIRMASS PRIMED TO EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE RAINFALL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 15KFT WITH PWATS MAKING A RUN OVER 2"...AND THUS NEAR ALL TIME MAXIMA AT APX FOR AUGUST. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE PLUME IS WELL-ALIGNED WITH WEST/EAST ORIENTED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH SIMILARLY- ORIENTED MEAN WIND VECTOR ALOFT. THIS IS ALL SUGGESTIVE THAT...IF WE CAN GET CONVECTION GOING DURING THE EVENING...THAT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUM SINKS SOUTH. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...INSTABILITY WILL WANE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...WHICH...GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED TODAY SUGGESTS THAT ANY THREAT OVERNIGHT WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES: WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME GRADIENT REMAINING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY...FULLY EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO REMAIN ABOVE 70...WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE OVER SOME NORTHERN LOWER WARM SPOTS IF RAIN DOES NOT MATERIALIZE. MONDAY: FORECAST HINGES STRONGLY ON WHAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OVER NORTHERN LOWER WITH A BOUNDARY SINKING NEAR MY SOUTHERN BORDER TO START THE DAY. IF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS SOME ORGANIZATION...COULD CERTAINLY SEE MOST OF THE DAY TURN OUT DRY AS WE FALL INTO SUBSIDENT REGION BEHIND DEPARTING CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGING IN THE AFTERNOON LIKELY PRECLUDING MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ATTM...WILL CONTINUE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING OVER NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL SHIFT POP FOCUS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA /OUTSIDE OF BETTER CHANCES OVER WESTERN CHIP-MACK/ FOR THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS CLOSER TO THE PRIMARY AXIS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY /ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS QUITE MEAGER AT THIS POINT/. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME ORGANIZATION...SO A CONTINUED LOW END SEVERE THREAT /IN LINE WITH SPC SWO DISCUSSION/ IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES: TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH T8S OVER 20C /!/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD...WE WON/T BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE THESE TEMPS ALOFT. STILL...A HOT/HUMID DAY IS IN STORE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S GIVEN ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 (8/26)MONDAY NIGHT...WE CONTINUE IN THE RING OF FIRE PATTERN WITH THE SFC LOW GETTING GOING OUT IN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 00Z AND PROGRESSING TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN MINNESOTA BY 12Z. THIS SETS UP A TRAINING SITUATION AGAIN, WITH THE WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR DLH TO OSC. WITH 500 MB FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE 850 MB FLOW PUSHING MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO THE BOUNDARY, THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE SOME HEAVY RAIN ISSUES WITH THE PLUME OF 2.0"+ PWAT MOVING OVER C UPPER AND N LOWER BY 12Z. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED IN THE HWO. ONE THING GOING FOR THIS SITUATION, IS THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE BETTER IN SYNC WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. SO WILL GO WITH THE RAIN MAKING IT INTO THE REGION. (8/27)TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN ISSUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SAME BASIC INGREDIENTS CONTINUE WITH THE 500 MB FLOW PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT AND WARM, MOIST AIR BEING RAMMED INTO THE WARM FRONT. IN THE AFTERNOON, IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500 MB DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH FALLING TO AROUND 20% OVER N LOWER PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AND THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO FORCE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA, CAUSING THE SKY TO CLEAR, AND PUSHING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN IN THE EVENING IN THE SOUTH EAST COUNTIES, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET. (8/28)WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN OVER ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A DIRTY RIDGE AGAIN. WILL STAY WITH THE ECMWF IDEA OF A DRY DAY, AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING KEEPING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA. THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AS WE HAVE HAD. EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... (8/29)THURSDAY...BOTH OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AT 500 MB THAT CONTINUES. THERE IS STILL A CONTINUED DISCREPANCY WITH THE DISTURBANCES ALONG THE 500 MB FLOW WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND THE GFS WITH NOTHING. CONSIDERING THAT THE GOING FORECAST IS DRY WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE IT. (8/30)FRIDAY...THE MODELS FLIPPED WITH THIS DAY. AS I READ MY AFD FROM YESTERDAY, THE GFS WAS WET, AND THE ECMWF WAS DRY. TODAY THE MODELS (BOTH THE 12Z RUNS) HAVE THE OPPOSITE, WITH THE GFS DRY AND THE ECMWF WET. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. (8/31)SATURDAY...THE GFS HAS THE RAIN MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF N LOWER AND ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE GFS FOR NOW AND PUT A CHANCE RAIN INTO E UPPER. (9/1)SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS WANT TO SET UP ANOTHER SAGGING FRONT SCENARIO LIKE THE ONE ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO GET INTO SOMETHING LIKE IT BUT IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. SO STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST...DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS /AND POSSIBLE CIGS/ AS SHRAS/TSRAS BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED IFR IN TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE NORM. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL FOG BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MONDAY MORNING. THUNDER: WILL CONTINUE BASICALLY A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY RE-DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT TVC/MBL. WINDS: SOUTHWEST 12G22KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5-10KTS EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY. LLWS: 1.5-2KFT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO 30-40KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUS WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF LLWS AT EACH TERMINAL UNTIL SHRAS/TSRAS BEGIN WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 SUMMARY: GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS/WAVES DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...LAST ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NO ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NS SHORT TERM...ARNOTT LONG TERM...JL AVIATION...ARNOTT MARINE...ARNOTT  FXUS63 KAPX 210718 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 318 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 COOLER AIR WILL STEADILY INVADE MICHIGAN TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE STATE. THE CHILLIER CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH ANY RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AFTER TONIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY TURN WARMER AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HIGH SWIM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATTERN SUMMARY: QUITE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE-SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE/ TROUGH COUPLET MOVING AT A STEADY EASTERLY CLIP ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS OF THIS WRITING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME PEELING EAST OF THE AREA...SOMEWHAT SLOWED BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THIS PLUME. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE COMPACT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH PUSHING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH IT/S SIGHTS SET ON THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. DRILLING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAS PAST EAST OF THE ENTIRE STATE /WITH IT/S PARENT LOW NOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY/. THIS FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS...THAT ARE USHERING IN OUR COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN STEPS. THE MOST RECENT OF THESE IS NOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...HAVING A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE LAST VESTIGES OF YESTERDAYS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE NEXT BOUNDARY IS ARRIVING OVER WESTERN UPPER AND WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET WILL CONTINUE...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/POTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER FIRST AROUND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY FOLLOWED BY CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THROUGH DAYBREAK - SHOWER/SPRINKSE ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH ARRIVING POTENT SHORTWAVE. ALSO...IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SOEM DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED...BUT HASN/T BEEN THAT WIDESPREAD. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING THE GROUND GET WET...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. TODAY/TONIGHT - WEATHER/PRECIPITATION: EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE YIELDING TO MORNING MIXING WITH BONA-FIDE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY LIKELY TAKING SOME TIME TO GET GOING AS DELTA T/S REACH 17-18C BY EARLY AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL CAPPING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE DEPTH TO GET FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. WITH 15-30 J/KG OF OVER-LAND INSTABILITY AND 10KTS OR LESS OF DEEP SHEAR...WILL SEE A CELLULAR NATURE TO ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE ENTIRELY AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE...WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AS A RESULT. SETUP SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHRAS FOR WNW FLOW FAVORED AREAS... SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED WORDING ELSEWHERE. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT WITH 0.05-0.10" AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY. MOISTURE WANES TONIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED SOMEWHAT MORE RESIDUAL MOISTURE /PARTICULARLY EAST/ THROUGH THE NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS WITH DELTA T/S CERTAINLY GREAT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN CONTINUED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...AND LIKELY SOME SPRINKLE/SHRA ACTIVITY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR 5-6KFT WITH LAST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MAKING A GLANCING BLOW OVERNIGHT AS IT PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. DRYING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH THIS MOST FAVORED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES: MAX T TODAY: LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO WITH AMPLE CLOUDINESS AND SOME WIND SUGGESTS COOLER RAW GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE TARGET. MOS HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND...WITH MID 50S OVER EASTERN UPPER AND 55-60 OVER NORTHERN LOWER...SAVE MY FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHICH WITH T8S AT OR ABOVE 5C THROUGH NOON...COULD SQUEAK INTO THE MID 60S BEFORE HOLDING STEADY OR BEGINNING A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIN TONIGHT: THE EVOLUTION DESCRIBED ABOVE SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE T8S AROUND THE FREEZING MARK /1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/...CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FEELING IS THAT WE MAY HAVE A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS DROP INTO THE 34-37F RANGE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 37-42F. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME PATCHY FROST WORDING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A HEADLINE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO...HOWEVER...AND LET DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPECTED EVENING CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR CONCERN IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED IS REALIZED. WINDS: MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...25-30KTS MAX...BUT UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WE SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE TAPPING NEARLY ALL OF THAT IN GUSTS TODAY. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-25MPH...HIGHEST OF COURSE NEAR THE COASTS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEAD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGING POKES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION. SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL...EXCEPT FOR FROST POTENTIAL. SUNDAY...1000-850MB NORTHERLY FLOW/COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE MORNING...THEN COLLAPSE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE INVERSION REMAINS PARKED AT 800MB...WHERE DEW PT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE 5C OR LESS. THAT WILL ALLOW SOME CU TO FLARE UP WITH HEATING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75 WHERE THOSE DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALLEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THAT THOUGH...750MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 20-30C. SO AS WE MIX UP INTO THAT AIRMASS...THE CU FIELD WILL MIX OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 0C. THAT WILL KEEP A LID ON MAX TEMPS DESPITE THE INCREASING SUN...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F. SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION...SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR...WITH CALM WINDS AND EXCELLENT COOLING CONDITIONS. THAT EXCEPTION MAY BE NE LOWER MI. THE SLOW-MOVING HIGH WON/T WIPE OUT ALL OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...WITH A TOUCH OF ENE BREEZE BELOW 875MB DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AT 900MB. THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A SOLID CLOUD DECK INVADING...BUT COULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY STRATOCU FORMING LATE IN NE LOWER. THAT/S THE ONLY OBSTACLE TO A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MAINLY THRU THE 30S...THOUGH A FEW OF THE CHILLIER INLAND LOCALES IN NORTHERN LOWER WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. MONDAY...EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...AS A 500MB RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. 850-700MB RH LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 10 PERCENT. SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODERATING AIRMASS CAN BE EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEW SHREDS OF STRATOCU MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NE LOWER MI IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 60 THE MID 60S. REST OF THE FORECAST...500MB PATTERN ACROSS N.A. REMAINS SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR HEADS ON MONDAY WILL GET SQUEEZED INTO OBLIVION BY AN INCOMING TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. BY THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR EAST (WEDNESDAY)...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH JUST A WEAKNESS IN 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS THIS FAR NORTH. GIVEN HOW MOISTURE-STARVED THE REGION IS IN GENERAL...HAVE NO PROBLEM CONTINUING A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. NEXT UPPER RIDGE GETS PUMPED UP INTO THE LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. MAX TEMPS WILL ZIP BACK INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD NOT PRECLUDE A STRAY 80F READING (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY). MODEL DIFFS FINALLY ENTER THE EQUATION BY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS FASTER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE PRECIP INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING...A SLOWER ECMWF-BASED SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. THIS IS ALSO FAVORED BY NCEP AND MOST UPSTREAM OFFICES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A FLAT-OUT DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DON/T WANT TO BE TOO FLIP-FLOPPY...AND WILL INSTEAD ONLY TAPER OFF POPS A BIT FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS). && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 SUMMARY: MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL COME THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESTRICTIONS: MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS WITH THIS CONSOLIDATING TREND IN THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS SOME LAKE PROCESSES BEGIN TO GET INVOLVED. THUS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHRAS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...AND A LOCALIZED MVFR CIG/VSBY IN A HEAVIER SHOWER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE LONG-LIVED NOR WIDESPREAD. SOME A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AT TVC /AND PERHAPS MBL-APN/...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE. WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15G25KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 SUMMARY: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL: SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT INDEX CREEPS UP THIS MORNING..WITH NON ZERO VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPPING IS PRETTY INTENSE BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH...LIMITING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS SOMEWHAT. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE INSTABILITY HOWEVER...WITH THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WHEREVER SHOWER CHANCES EXIST OVER THE WATERS. HEADLINES: WILL NEED TO EXPAND SCA/S TO ALMOST ALL MARINE ZONES WITH THIS PACKAGE AS NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS 20-30KTS WILL BE COMMON..PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY. SCA/S WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY INTO THE EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON. BEYOND THIS...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...ARNOTT LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARNOTT MARINE...ARNOTT  FXUS63 KAPX 211449 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1049 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 COOLER AIR WILL STEADILY INVADE MICHIGAN TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE STATE. THE CHILLIER CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH ANY RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AFTER TONIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY TURN WARMER AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 SHOWERS ARE STILL CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE 6C AT APX AND 4C AT GRB...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. CLOSEST MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE NAM WITH ZERO DEGREE 850MB TEMPERATURES PREDICTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY 21Z. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AT LEAST 60 PERCENT 850-700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE GENERATED CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES AS WELL AS THE LAKE-850MB DELTA T/S REACH NEAR 20C. UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN NW LOWER MI SINCE 4 AM. LAKE SUPERIOR IS ALSO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE FROM THE MQT RADAR... INCLUDING A TOUCH OF NW BANDING. THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY SERVES TO EMPHASIZE THAT COLDER AIR...AND BETTER PRECIP CHANCES...WILL BE ARRIVING LATER THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED...SOME TWEAKS TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AS THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC CLOUD SHIELD PREPARES TO EXIT NE LOWER MI. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HIGH SWIM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATTERN SUMMARY: QUITE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE-SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE/ TROUGH COUPLET MOVING AT A STEADY EASTERLY CLIP ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS OF THIS WRITING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME PEELING EAST OF THE AREA...SOMEWHAT SLOWED BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THIS PLUME. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE COMPACT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH PUSHING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH IT/S SIGHTS SET ON THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. DRILLING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAS PAST EAST OF THE ENTIRE STATE /WITH IT/S PARENT LOW NOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY/. THIS FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS...THAT ARE USHERING IN OUR COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN STEPS. THE MOST RECENT OF THESE IS NOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...HAVING A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE LAST VESTIGES OF YESTERDAYS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE NEXT BOUNDARY IS ARRIVING OVER WESTERN UPPER AND WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET WILL CONTINUE...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/POTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER FIRST AROUND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY FOLLOWED BY CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THROUGH DAYBREAK - SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH ARRIVING POTENT SHORTWAVE. ALSO...IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED...BUT HASN/T BEEN THAT WIDESPREAD. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING THE GROUND GET WET...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. TODAY/TONIGHT - WEATHER/PRECIPITATION: EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE YIELDING TO MORNING MIXING WITH BONA-FIDE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY LIKELY TAKING SOME TIME TO GET GOING AS DELTA T/S REACH 17-18C BY EARLY AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL CAPPING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE DEPTH TO GET FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. WITH 15-30 J/KG OF OVER-LAND INSTABILITY AND 10KTS OR LESS OF DEEP SHEAR...WILL SEE A CELLULAR NATURE TO ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE ENTIRELY AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE...WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AS A RESULT. SETUP SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHRAS FOR WNW FLOW FAVORED AREAS... SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED WORDING ELSEWHERE. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT WITH 0.05-0.10" AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY. MOISTURE WANES TONIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED SOMEWHAT MORE RESIDUAL MOISTURE /PARTICULARLY EAST/ THROUGH THE NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS WITH DELTA T/S CERTAINLY GREAT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN CONTINUED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...AND LIKELY SOME SPRINKLE/SHRA ACTIVITY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR 5-6KFT WITH LAST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MAKING A GLANCING BLOW OVERNIGHT AS IT PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. DRYING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH THIS MOST FAVORED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES: MAX T TODAY: LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO WITH AMPLE CLOUDINESS AND SOME WIND SUGGESTS COOLER RAW GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE TARGET. MOS HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND...WITH MID 50S OVER EASTERN UPPER AND 55-60 OVER NORTHERN LOWER...SAVE MY FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHICH WITH T8S AT OR ABOVE 5C THROUGH NOON...COULD SQUEAK INTO THE MID 60S BEFORE HOLDING STEADY OR BEGINNING A SLOW FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIN TONIGHT: THE EVOLUTION DESCRIBED ABOVE SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE T8S AROUND THE FREEZING MARK /1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/...CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FEELING IS THAT WE MAY HAVE A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS DROP INTO THE 34-37F RANGE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 37-42F. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME PATCHY FROST WORDING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A HEADLINE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO...HOWEVER...AND LET DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT EXPECTED EVENING CLOUD TRENDS...AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR CONCERN IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED IS REALIZED. WINDS: MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...25-30KTS MAX...BUT UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WE SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE TAPPING NEARLY ALL OF THAT IN GUSTS TODAY. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-25MPH...HIGHEST OF COURSE NEAR THE COASTS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEAD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK...AS SURFACE RIDGING POKES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION. SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL...EXCEPT FOR FROST POTENTIAL. SUNDAY...1000-850MB NORTHERLY FLOW/COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE MORNING...THEN COLLAPSE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE INVERSION REMAINS PARKED AT 800MB...WHERE DEW PT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE 5C OR LESS. THAT WILL ALLOW SOME CU TO FLARE UP WITH HEATING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75 WHERE THOSE DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALLEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THAT THOUGH...750MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 20-30C. SO AS WE MIX UP INTO THAT AIRMASS...THE CU FIELD WILL MIX OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 0C. THAT WILL KEEP A LID ON MAX TEMPS DESPITE THE INCREASING SUN...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F. SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION...SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR...WITH CALM WINDS AND EXCELLENT COOLING CONDITIONS. THAT EXCEPTION MAY BE NE LOWER MI. THE SLOW-MOVING HIGH WON/T WIPE OUT ALL OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...WITH A TOUCH OF ENE BREEZE BELOW 875MB DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AT 900MB. THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A SOLID CLOUD DECK INVADING...BUT COULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY STRATOCU FORMING LATE IN NE LOWER. THAT/S THE ONLY OBSTACLE TO A CHILLY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MAINLY THRU THE 30S...THOUGH A FEW OF THE CHILLIER INLAND LOCALES IN NORTHERN LOWER WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. MONDAY...EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...AS A 500MB RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. 850-700MB RH LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 10 PERCENT. SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODERATING AIRMASS CAN BE EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEW SHREDS OF STRATOCU MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NE LOWER MI IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 60 THE MID 60S. REST OF THE FORECAST...500MB PATTERN ACROSS N.A. REMAINS SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR HEADS ON MONDAY WILL GET SQUEEZED INTO OBLIVION BY AN INCOMING TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. BY THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR EAST (WEDNESDAY)...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH JUST A WEAKNESS IN 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS THIS FAR NORTH. GIVEN HOW MOISTURE-STARVED THE REGION IS IN GENERAL...HAVE NO PROBLEM CONTINUING A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. NEXT UPPER RIDGE GETS PUMPED UP INTO THE LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. MAX TEMPS WILL ZIP BACK INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD NOT PRECLUDE A STRAY 80F READING (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY). MODEL DIFFS FINALLY ENTER THE EQUATION BY FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS FASTER TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE PRECIP INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING...A SLOWER ECMWF-BASED SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. THIS IS ALSO FAVORED BY NCEP AND MOST UPSTREAM OFFICES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A FLAT-OUT DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DON/T WANT TO BE TOO FLIP-FLOPPY...AND WILL INSTEAD ONLY TAPER OFF POPS A BIT FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS). && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 MOSTLY VFR...WITH BRIEF MVFR PERIODS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EAST OF MI. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS THE MORNING PROCEEDS. CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL STILL BE MOSTLY VFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY CIGS) WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT AND GUSTS TO 20-25KT THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN THIS EVENING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013 SUMMARY: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL: SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT INDEX CREEPS UP THIS MORNING..WITH NON ZERO VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPPING IS PRETTY INTENSE BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH...LIMITING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS SOMEWHAT. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE INSTABILITY HOWEVER...WITH THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WHEREVER SHOWER CHANCES EXIST OVER THE WATERS. HEADLINES: WILL NEED TO EXPAND SCA/S TO ALMOST ALL MARINE ZONES WITH THIS PACKAGE AS NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS 20-30KTS WILL BE COMMON..PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY. SCA/S WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY INTO THE EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON. BEYOND THIS...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321. && $$ UPDATE...TL SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...ARNOTT LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...JZ MARINE...ARNOTT  FXUS63 KAPX 220715 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 315 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO SET US UP FOR SOME FROSTY NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 HAPPY FALL! /OFFICIALLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AT 444 PM EDT/ HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. PATTERN SUMMARY: SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS OF THIS WRITING WITH TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH TRIPLET MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONUS. FINAL SHORTWAVE /A RATHER SIGNIFICANT ONE AT THAT/ IS BRUSHING US TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO DRIVE ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AMPLE LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDINESS RESULTING. MOVING TO THE SURFACE...NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /1017 MB/ BUT IT IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A COOL AIRMASS ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES IN ITS VICINITY DROPPING THROUGH UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO MAKE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THIS HIGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND REMAINING CLOUD EVOLUTION THROUGH TODAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES/FROST-FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT. THROUGH DAYBREAK - OUR CURRENT BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/ SPRINKLES CONTINUES AS OF THIS WRITING WITH RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM CANADA HELPING TO THIN...AND CREATE SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH AN OVERALL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WINDS CAUSING THE WANING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE COASTS OF NW AND NE LOWER WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ELSEWHERE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCALES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S...BUT TOO LATE TO ALLOW FOR ANYTHING BUT A FEW PATCHES OF FROST. TODAY/TONIGHT - CLOUD COVER: WITH DRYING LLEVEL AIRMASS AND A WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY DEVELOPMENT BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLE/SHRA ACTIVITY WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT COME TO AN END AS CLOUD DEPTHS THIN. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE SUBSTANTIAL MORNING CLOUD COVER TRAPPED BENEATH STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT AS DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...HOWEVER...WITH SUBSTANTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. TONIGHT... CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS CONCERNS FOR NORTHEAST LOWER LATE /SEE MIN T DISCUSSION BELOW/. TEMPERATURES: MAX T TODAY: T8S WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 0C BY AFTERNOON...WITH FULLY MIXED VALUES YIELDING 55-60 FOR HIGHS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. LOOKING AT ANALOG CASES SUGGESTS A SLIGHT WARM BIAS IN RECENT SIMILAR SCENARIOS...WITH BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE PERHAPS A SHADE COOLER THAN THE CONSENSUS MENTIONED ABOVE. WILL FOLLOW THIS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CWA-WIDE. MIN T TONIGHT: AS INDICATED BY YESTERDAY/S DAY SHIFT...CONDITIONS PRETTY MUCH PERFECT FOR A FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. CONCERNS ABOUT SOME RENEGADE STRATOCUMULUS OVER LAKE HURON DRIFTING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST LOWER GIVEN FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT AND WEAK NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF FEW-SCT CLOUDS HERE. TEMPS COULD BE INFLUENCED A FEW DEGREES F...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST CONCERNS. REGARDING OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE TREND IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. LOOKING AT THE PAST FEW EVENTS WITH A SIMILAR SETUP...FORECASTS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH TOO COOL. THEREFORE...WILL GO JUST ABOVE THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 30-35F RANGE...WARMER NEAR THE BIG LAKES. HEADLINES: WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AREAS/WIDESPREAD FROST...WILL ISSUE NPW WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH PREVIOUS BIAS IN THESE SETUPS... WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING TOO WIDESPREAD WITH THE FREEZE WARNING...AND RESTRICT IT TO INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH FROST ADVISORIES SURROUNDING THIS. LEELANAU COUNTY LOOKS TO MISS OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOWS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 40 HERE. DAYSHIFT MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IF...FOR EXAMPLE...OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER OFF LAKE HURON DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF NORTHEAST LOWER TO SEE A FREEZE. FOG: CERTAINLY WILL PASS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SCENARIO /DECREASING MOISTURE WITH HEIGHT/ FAVORING SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG. WINDS: SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY GRADIENT SUGGESTS WE WILL START THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY 5-10MPH WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS 15MPH. GRADIENT FALLS APART DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS QUICKLY DECOUPLING DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOWS...SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS CALM WINDS FOR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...AND EVENTUALLY MUCH WARMER. 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN GET SQUEEZED INTO OBLIVION BETWEEN THE STALLED UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE...AND AN UPPER TROF INBOUND FROM THE PLAINS. THAT INCOMING TROF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AND EVENTUALLY SQUASHES THE RIDGE. BUT IT/S EXACT PATH (A MATTER OF SOME DISPUTE AMONGST THE MODELS) WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THERE IS MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS (LET ALONE PRECIP) WITH THE FEATURE. IN THE INTERIM... THERE MAY BE A LOW-END FROST THREAT IN SOME AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT NOWHERE NEAR AS SIGNIFICANT AS TONIGHT. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH EDGES EAST FROM LOWER MI TO LAKE HURON ON MONDAY...WHILE 500MB RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NOT SURPRISING TO SEE MODEL SOUNDINGS BE QUITE DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR 0.4 INCHES. DEW PT DEPRESSIONS NARROW TO 3-6C AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION (850MB). THAT SUPPORTS SEEING A FEW CU...BUT NOT MANY. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 2C IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL MODERATE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THAT WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR 60F TO THE MID 60S. THAT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN EXPECTED. WEAK RETURN FLOW (950MB WINDS 10-15KT) WILL GET GOING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND EASTERN UPPER MI. THOSE AREAS...AND THE LAKE MI COAST OF NW LOWER...WILL SEE A TOUCH OF A BREEZE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER MIN TEMPS (NEAR 40F TO THE MID 40S). READINGS WILL FALL OFF TO THE EAST...WHERE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS TONIGHT...IF ONLY BECAUSE WILL BE STARTING FROM WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. BUT WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN N CENTRAL AND NE LOWER...WITH SOME FROST POTENTIAL THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. TUESDAY...500MB RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS EAST TO LAKE HURON. INCOMING UPPER TROF WILL REACH THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND LIFTS MORE ENERGY NE-WARD TOWARD NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN SUPERIOR. NAM/ECMWF/SREF ARE MORE INCLINED TO BUTT THIS ENERGY INTO THE RIDGE AND NOT TRY TO CLIMB OVER IT...RESULTING IN A STRONG VORT MAX SLOWLY CROSSING IOWA DURING THE DAY. THE LATTER SOLUTION MAINTAINS CONTINUITY AND IS PREFERRED. THIS KEEPS ANY SEMBLANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO OUR WEST...AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE DAY. WILL SHADE MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND A FEW REACHING 70F. REST OF THE FORECAST...AS LONG AS ONE IGNORES THE GFS (SEE ABOVE)...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MID/LATE WEEK. WHAT/S LEFT OF THE UPPER TROF COMING IN FROM THE PLAINS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THE SENSIBLE WX...AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS...WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A BIT OF 500MB RIDGING WILL BE FOLDING OVER TOP OF THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. THAT RIDGING AMPLIFIES AND WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE REMNANTS OF THE DEEP LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES FINALLY EMERGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIE. WX LOOKS DRY WED THRU FRIDAY...WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPS. CHANCE POPS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS: LOW VFR STRATUS WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR BRINGS CLEARING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10G15KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE GUSTINESS ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO CALM THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOWS UP TO 3KTS DEVELOPING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013 SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION/S WEATHER THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL: HAS ENDED AS ROBUST SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKES /AND THUS ANY SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFTS/ IS OVER WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS NORTHERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS...WITH WINDS/WAVES DIMINISHING AS A RESULT. BEYOND THIS...THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS HEADLINE-FREE...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ023-028-029-033>035-041. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ008-015>019-021-022-024>027-030>032-036-042. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...ARNOTT LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARNOTT MARINE...ARNOTT  FXUS63 KAPX 210734 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 334 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 COOL WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL INVADE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO BRING THE FIRST SNOWS OF THE SEASON...ESPECIALLY TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES...THIS TIME COURTESY OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST UP ACROSS NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN. WING OF WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VIA RESPECTABLE CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WINDS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO THE NORTH WOODS THIS EVENING. BACKSIDE DRY SLOT ALREADY MAKING INROADS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS...DELINEATING A SHARP END TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINS. THIS DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN AGGRESSIVE...FURTHER DRIVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE LOW ONLY PART OF THE WEATHER STORY...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM ABOUT AS AMPLIFIED AS IT GETS IN MID OCTOBER. GREAT LAKES FIRMLY LOCATED IN THE COLD SIDE OF THIS AMPED UP PATTERN...WITH DEEP TROUGHING STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...SUPPLYING A SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION (H8 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO JUST WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA PER LATEST HIGH RES RAP ANALYSIS). THIS CORRIDOR OF COLDER AIR WILL PUNCH INTO OUR AREA HEADING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS UP INTO ONTARIO...WHILE ITS MID LEVEL LIKENESS ROTATES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS SEASON...ONCE AGAIN IGNITING THE LAKE MACHINE AND LIKELY BRINGING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. OF COURSE GIVEN ABOVE...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MULTIPLE... CENTERING ON EVOLUTION OF PRECIP TYPE/COVERAGE...PLETHORA OF MARINE HEADLINES...AND JUST HOW MUCH SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LETS GET STARTED. CURRENT LAKE MICHIGAN COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA...LOOKING TO EXIT THE SUNRISE SIDE SHORTLY...AFTER SUNRISE (GO FIGURE). THIS...ALONG WITH THE DRY SLOT...WILL BRING A QUICK END TO ANY SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THE RAINFALL. ATTENTION TURNS TO INCREASING OVER-LAKE PROCESSES AS UPSTREAM CORE OF COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS...DROPPING H8 TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID SINGLE DIGITS (-4C TO -8C) BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ROBUST DRY SLOT LIKELY TO PARTIALLY OFFSET EXCELLENT DELTA T/S (WHICH REACH THE LOWER 20S) BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NEGATE AT LEAST LIGHT LAKE-DRIVEN SHOWERS TARGETING FAVORED WSW FLOW AREAS. DRY SLOT/LONG OVERLAND TRAJECTORIES/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LOOK TO KEEP THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DRY. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY WELL TRENDED TOWARDS ABOVE IDEAS...FEATURING LIKELY SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHWEST LOWER...INTO THE STRAITS AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. PRECIP TYPE EVOLUTION NOT AS CLEAR CUT FOR SURE...WITH MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STEADY SHRINKING OF THE MELTING LAYER HEADING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LAKE MODIFICATION LIKELY TO KEEP AREAS RECEIVING MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS ALL RAIN. ELEVATED AND INTERIOR REGIONS LIKELY TO SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW...ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THE MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY. PER THE USUAL WITH STRONG COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...CAA WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET THE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE...WITH READINGS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING FROM EARLY MORNING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER...AND BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE THE 30S. INTERESTING PRECIP TYPE FORECAST TAKES SHAPE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY SLOT IS LOST WITH APPROACH OF "WRAP AROUND" MOISTURE. COMBINE THIS WITH NEAR EXTREME OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (H8 TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE NEGATIVE MID SINGLE DIGITS...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COLDER) AND THE LAKE PROCESSES SHOULD KICK INTO OVERDRIVE. NAM-WRF BUFR SOUNDINGS DOWNRIGHT IMPRESSIVE... WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE EXCEEDING 1.0K J/KG AND EQL/S BETWEEN 15K AND 20K FEET. SAME NAM MODEL FOCUSES EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL FORCED CONVERGENCE NORTH OF M-68 AND UP THROUGH THE STRAITS AS DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS WSW RIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHER GUIDANCE JUST A SMIDGE QUICKER VEERING WINDS AROUND MORE WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH EVEN THEY ARE SLOWING THIS PROCESS. NOW...ON TO THE ALL IMPORTANT PRECIP TYPE ISSUE. AND...THAT IS A TOUGH ONE FOR SURE. IN THEORY...LOW LEVEL LAKE MODIFICATION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING (NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S)...WITH A DEEP ENOUGH MELTING LAYER TO KEEP MORE A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE. HEAVIEST LAKE SHOWERS LOOK TO LAY OUT JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHLANDS...AIDING IN A DEEPER MELTING LAYER. ALL SOUNDS NICE IN THEORY...BUT ALL MIGHT NOT BE SO SIMPLE. POTENTIAL DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION COULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RAPIDLY ERODING THIS MELTING LAYER IN A QUICK WAY (SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES BACK IN MID OCTOBER 2006 ALLOWED LAKE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW...EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST AT TIMES. SEE BUFFALO DURING THE SAME EVENT). IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...COULD EASILY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW BY MORNING...WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES. CONFIDENCE SIMPLY NOT THERE TO GO THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE DIRECTION... BUT WILL DEFINITELY HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND PASS ALONG THESE CONCERNS TO THE DAY FORECASTING CREW. LIGHTER SHOWERS...LIKELY SNOW UP IN THE HIGHLANDS...EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH OF MAIN ACTION AS MOISTURE PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES NOT AS FAVORABLE. HEAVIER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE RIGHT AROUND SUN-UP FOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. MAY SEE A COATING TO AN INCH OF THE WHITE STUFF UP IN THE HIGHLANDS BY SUNRISE. A POTENTIAL INTERESTING NIGHT...INDEED. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 THE SHORT VERSION...CONTINUED COLD AND DAMP WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...FOR JUST ABOUT AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE. LONG VERSION...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA THRU MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...500MB HEIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE MEAGER...AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NNW. THERE ARE FEW SIGNS OF THIS PATTERN ABATING UNTIL NEXT WEEK...MAYBE. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL GRAZE THE TIP OF JAMES BAY AS GRADUALLY MOVES NE. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER MI AT MIDDAY...SHEARING APART AS IT GOES. (THE MORE PROMINENT SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SE-WARD ACROSS MN/WI/IL.) IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-DAY WAVE...MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL MAKE SOME INROADS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER...AND EVENTUALLY FAR NORTHERN LOWER. 850-700MB RH LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW 50 PERCENT IN THOSE NORTHERN SECTIONS. BUT UP UNTIL THEN...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY ABUNDANT (MORE SO THAN IT APPEARED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY). DELTA T/S WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 20C ON NORTHERN LAKE MI. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...10-13K FT...WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT. TWO THINGS WILL SAVE US FROM GETTING CLOBBERED. ONE IS THAT THE WIND FIELDS SEE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES DURING THE DAY...WITH 1000-850MB FROM THE WEST AT DAYBREAK...REACHING NW TO NNW BY EVENING. THAT WILL SPREAD OUT LAKE EFFECT OVER A LARGER AREA. THE OTHER IS DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL DISRUPT ANY BAND ORGANIZATION BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER AND RELATIVELY LOW ALBEDO). HEATING WILL ALSO TURN P-TYPE MORE TOWARD RAIN...OR AT LEAST A SLOPPIER SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY QUICK TO ESTABLISH A MELTING LAYER NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2K FT BY 15Z. NOT SURE I BUY THAT QUICK/ABRUPT A TRANSITION...BUT IT DOES ILLUSTRATE THE GENERAL IDEA. SO...IN EASTERN UPPER...A NW/NNW FETCH WILL QUICKLY BE ESTABLISHED BY 15Z. WILL HAVE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD POPS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE MORNING...BUT THEN THE FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO WESTERN CHIP. A MIXY P-TYPE MIGHT FAVOR SNOW TO START THE MORNING...BUT WILL FAVOR RAIN BY AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. IN NORTHERN LOWER...THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE MORE GRADUAL...A STEADY VEERING FROM W TO WNW DURING THE MORNING...CONTINUING TO NW AND NNW DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL THUS SHIFT FROM THE LTL TRAV BAY REGION...TO THE GD TRAV BAY REGION...AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. INTERIOR SECTIONS LOOK TO BE MIXY...LIKE EASTERN UPPER A MIX THAT MIGHT FAVOR SNOW IN THE AM...BUT WILL FAVOR RAIN IN THE PM. COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD ALMOST ALL RAIN. ANY ACCUMS IN DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S. TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON NW-ERLY 1000-850MB FLOW. HOWEVER...LAKE RESPONSE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP MAINTAIN 850MB TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AT -6/-7C. MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY PALTRY FOR MOST OF TUE NIGHT...WITH DRYING PROCEEDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN ACROSS SUPERIOR TOWARD WED MORNING...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DISPLACE THE AREA OF NVA. THIS WILL PRESAGE A BROADER UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE AT THIS STAGE WITH TIMING DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY THAN TUE NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MIXY IN EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...AND SMALL SLUSHY ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER COASTLINES. MIN TEMPS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. MAX TEMPS UPPER 30S (YIKES) TO MID 40S. REST OF THE FORECAST...COOL AND SHOWERY WX WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER TROF GETS CONTINUALLY RECHARGED. THE NEW ECMWF IN PARTICULAR DROPS AN ESPECIALLY CHILLY BOWLING BALL INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. NO REASON TO GO ALL-IN ON THAT...OR ANY OTHER...PARTICULAR SOLUTION. BUT WET/CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE DISTANT EXTENDED DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS ETERNALLY DARK AS IT DID AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. INSTEAD OF ENDLESSLY DROPPING ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROF...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE DUG SOME ENERGY FURTHER WEST INTO THE ROCKIES...ALLOWING FOR DEAMPLIFICATION IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. SO THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR MODERATION NEXT WEEK...WITH THE USUAL CAVEAT ABOUT THE MODELS GENERALLY BEING TOO QUICK TO CHANGE A STUBBORN PATTERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WISCONSIN. A FEW HITS OF THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STEADY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW SINCE THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLD EVENT. LLWS WILL ALSO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK STRENGTHEN FROM THE S/SW WHILE S/SE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN...BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE SYNOPTIC RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER... SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS CAA BEGINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AGAIN TARGETING THE STRAITS AND NW LWR MICHIGAN FOR HIGHEST POPS IN SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. W/SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO TODAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS SFC WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND ULTIMATELY WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD...LOWER END GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND THROUGH THE STRAITS...WHILE THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS FOR LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF WHITEFISH BAY AND THE ST. MARYS RIVER...AND NOW EXPECTING JUST SCA CONDITIONS FOR THOSE WATERS. ALL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IT TACT RIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK...WITH EXTENSIONS EVENTUALLY NEEDED TO HEADLINES. IN ADDITION...EXCELLENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND A SURFACE TROUGH...WILL ONCE AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ346>349. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...MB LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MR MARINE...MB  FXUS63 KAPX 230914 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 514 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON HAS MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THIS WEEKEND. WITH IT...WILL COME CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 CURRENTLY...COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH CHILLY AIR CONTINUING TO BLOW VIA NW WINDS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST...BEING ENHANCED AT TIMES WITH PASSING SFC TROUGHS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. ONE OF THOSE TROUGHS WAS APPROACHING EASTERN UPPER/FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT WAS BEING NOTICED. EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER THE 14C WATER (H8 TEMPS AROUND -6C) HAS RESULTED IN INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 12KFT...AND WITH A SLACKENING IN WINDS...SHEAR WAS MUCH MUCH TOO LOW RELATIVELY SPEAKING FOR ANY GOOD BANDING. THUS...MORE CELLULAR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE SEEN. THIS WAS PROVIDING BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES. TODAY...MORE OF THE SAME. DEEP INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH...CYCLONIC COLD NW FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WAVES OF DEEPER MOISTURE/DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS MORNING...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SNOW WITH THIS THAN RAIN...WHILE THE MIX WILL BE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS...EXPECT SNOW WITH A BURST OF SNOW THAT WILL COVER GRASSY AREAS...AND LOCALIZED SPOTS ON ROADS SINCE THE INTENSITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY WARMER SURFACES. BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES AS WELL. AS THIS WAVE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SWINGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WE WILL TRANSITION YET AGAIN TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OR AT LEAST WELL AWAY FROM WINDS COMING IN OFF THE WARMER LAKES. AGAIN...ANY STRONG SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP SOME SNOW TOO...AS WELL AS QUICKLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S. ACCUMULATIONS NOT TOO CONCERNING TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN. TONIGHT...PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH COMBO LOWERS INTO EASTERN UPPER THIS EVENING...BEFORE PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO NRN LOWER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NRN ONTARIO ATTM. STILL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GOOD BANDING...BUT SNOWFALL INTENSITIES/COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT BETTER TONIGHT FOR MORE COMMUNITIES GETTING THE CHANCE AT WAKING UP TO SOME MINOR/MODERATE SNOWFALL. TARGETED AREAS WILL BE ANTRIM/OTSEGO...KALKASKA AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES...WITH THE MAX SNOWFALL OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LESSER AMOUNTS BACK CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE...WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES. THERMODYNAMICS...WINDS AND INSTABILITY ALL LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE LOOKING TO BE A TOUCH STRONGER BRINGING THE BETTER SNOWS FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...MORE AND FREQUENT SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS...TAPERING TO SCATTERED/ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF NOVEMBER SET TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NOAM SIMPLY IN NO HURRY TO BREAK DOWN. THUS...DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIP. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL VISIT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP THREAT AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FORECAST CHALLENGES ONE OF PRECIP TYPE/PLACEMENT/AND INTENSITY EVOLUTION...AS WELL AS ADDRESSING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. PRETTY MUCH STEADY-STATE LAKE PARAMETERS HOLDING RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT OVER-WATER DELTA T/S AUGMENTED BY DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN EXCELLENT...WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE CBL. TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE BELTS EXPECTED TO SEE FREQUENT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...TAPERING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO CHANGE LITTLE...WITH INTERIOR SNOWS...RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE BIG WATERS...DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO MORE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE DAYTIME. MAY SEEM SOME LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED HIGHLANDS...ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE TOO BIG A DEAL. CHANGES START TAKING PLACE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...WITH FLOW RAPIDLY BACKING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS EARLIER MENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO ONTARIO. STILL PLENTY OF LINGERING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH AND INVERSION LEVELS TO BEGIN TO TANK. HARD TO ARGUE...HOWEVER...WITH INHERITED LIKELY POPS GIVEN OVER-WATER DELTA T/S STILL UP NEAR 20C GIVEN H8 TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE MID SINGLE DIGITS. EXCELLENT GUIDANCE AGREEMENT CLIPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INITIAL WAA PROCESSES GIVE WAY TO COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...SUPPORTING GOOD CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DEEPENING MELTING LAYER EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS LIQUID. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM TO END THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH GROWING EVIDENCE STRONG CORE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG EAST SIDE OF EAST PACIFIC RIDGING....EVENTUALLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS WOULD HELP FORCE ALONG AN INCREASINGLY SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER TIME...WITH NORTHERN STREAM RETREATING OFF TO OUR NORTH. POTENTIALLY ANOTHER WET PERIOD OF WEATHER...AS NORTHWARD PUSHING SOUTHERN STREAM BRINGS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE OUR AREA. POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE FOR A DECENT STORM SYSTEM DEPENDING ON HOW ABOVE UNFOLDS...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORTING MAINLY A PLAIN RAIN SCENARIO. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...WILL SIMPLY RUN WITH A MODEL BLEND APPROACH...WHICH FEATURES RAIN POSSIBILITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A FEW MORE HOURS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO MBL/TVC WITH POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FLOW THEN BACKS MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME INTO THE MORNING...AND BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PICTURE AT PLN. AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW LIKELIHOOD OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT APN. CIGS PREVAILING LOW VFR AND AT TIMES MVFR WITH SHOWERS. WINDS GUSTY OUT OF THE WNW TODAY...18-22 KNOTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WAVER ONLY A LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A A COUPLE OF SFC TROUGHS...ONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE TROUGHS WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...WITHIN THE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS AND HIGH WAVES TODAY AND FOR MOST NEARSHORES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE BACKING OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN SNEAK INTO GALES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MB SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...MB AVIATION...MR MARINE...SD  FXUS63 KAPX 061603 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1103 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SNEAKS THROUGH THE REGION. THAT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1103 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 STATUS QUO FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILTER IN ALOFT...WITH H8 TEMPS SLIDING TOWARD -17C INTO EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ANEMIC...BUT THE ENTIRE CLOUD DEPTH IS STUCK IN THE DGZ BELOW 850MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SOME PRETTY GOOD DENDRITES. HAVE SEEN SNOW RATIOS UP AROUND 30-50 TO 1...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF VERY FLUFFY SNOW FOR WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. STILL WATCHING ONE QUITE PRONOUNCED CONVERGENCE BAND JUST NORTH OF WHITEFISH POINT...BUT THAT HAS HELD OFFSHORE SO FAR WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT A SLOW SOUTHWARD SINKING OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFF SHOULD THE BAND MAKE IT ASHORE. THAT LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OVER JAMES BAY REINFORCES LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PERHAPS HELPING TO PUNT THE BAND ASHORE. WILL DIG INTO THIS MORE CLOSELY FOR EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 NO UPDATED NEEDED. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW LOWER...DID BRING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY SHIFTED MORE NORTH OF WEST. A FLUCTUATION WITH THE PASSING OF A SFC TROUGH. THIS WAVERING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 CURRENTLY...DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE AND PARENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY WITH FAST JET STREAM DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN NRN MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER DRIER H8-H5 AIR OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. REGARDLESS...AS IS TYPICAL OF NRN MICHIGAN IN WINTER...INVERSION BASED AT H8 IS TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE LAKES IN WESTERLY 1000-850MB WINDS. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...DUE TO AN OVERLAND FETCH. HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER MUCH OF NE LOWER IN SW FLOW ALOFT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT...AND GUSTS CONTINUE UP TO 25 MPH...HIGHER OVER THE LAKES DUE TO BETTER WINDS TAPPED FROM DEEPER INSTABILITY. TEMPS IN THE CLOUD WERE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES...WHILE CLEAR AREAS WERE AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PATTERN DOESN'T REALLY CHANGE THAT MUCH...AT LEAST TODAY. THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY DRIES A BIT INTO THE MORNING BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE IN WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIMES. BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST DIRECTION...AND WHILE THIS WILL NOT MEAN MUCH CHANGE IN SNOWFALL LOCATION ACROSS NRN LOWER...IT WILL MEAN MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER. AFTER ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH TODAY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING/INVERSION RISING TO 5500 FEET IN NW LOWER...AND TO A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 9KFT ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOWFALL. PROBABLY NOT SO IMPRESSIVE IN NW LOWER...BUT CAN FORESEE AN AVERAGE OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. MEANWHILE...LONGER FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY WILL RESULT THE DEEPER MOISTURE. FAVORABLE H8 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT OCCURRING DIRECTLY IN THE DGZ WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL LARGE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS AIDED BY INCREASED LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS IN BULLS-EYED DGZ. THIS IS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE...WHETHER OR NOT THE DGZ GETS HIT WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT. HOWEVER..CANNOT FORESEE ALTERING THE 8 INCH+ AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT FOR AROUND PARADISE/WHITEFISH POINT. PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE SHARPENING LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING THAT MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP WINDS A BIT MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING THE BEST SNOWFALL JUST OFFSHORE. DID LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY DO TO THIS. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER HALF OF THE 20S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT TEENS IN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...TO AS COLD AS THE THE SINGLE DIGITS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 PIECES OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SHIFTING WINDS AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DAILY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND THE RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE GENERAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SATURDAY...MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY...SAVE FOR THE CONTINUED POSSIBLY HEAVIER BAND NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND PARADISE (MEAN 850-700 MB RH NEAR 80 PERCENT) WHERE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLOW WILL BACK FROM WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST. MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER WILL BE ALRIGHT BUT STILL NOTHING OUTLANDISH...WITH 850-700 MB RH GENERALLY AROUND 50 PERCENT. ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER SHOULD BE IN THE INCH TO POSSIBLY TWO INCH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MEAN FLOW LIGHTENS UP AND MOISTURE DECREASES BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THERE MAY BE A SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE DEPRIVED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GENERAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY AND THE MILDER MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30 MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION LEADING TO MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL ALSO MOVE BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK (AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -22 TO -24 C). THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR WEST NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AT BEST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE...AT LEAST IN A LIGHTER CAPACITY AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. FRIDAY...RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE ACTION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 654 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 SHALLOW MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY BETWEEN TVC/PLN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AN UPTICK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OF A HALF INCH OR SO TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...GUSTING TO 20-22KTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 420 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHER PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY FOR QUIETER CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT STILL NO ISSUES AS FAR AS WINDS. GRADIENT PICKS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY NIGHT FOR A RETURN TO POTENTIAL ADVISORIES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$ UPDATE...LAWRENCE SYNOPSIS...AS SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...SD MARINE...SD  FXUS63 KAPX 072102 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 402 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THAT SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS...WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 SYNOPSIS...1044MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD HAVING OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...12Z APX SOUNDING 850MB TEMPERATURE DOWN TO -19C. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 INCH OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WITHIN ARCTIC AIR MASS. WEST-NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES PROVIDING FOR MULTIPLE BAND LAKE CONVECTION INTO FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ELONGATED LATENT PV ANOMALY STRETCHES FROM MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVES SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE UPSTREAM WILL CROSS MICHIGAN SUNDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP (SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING SOUTHWEST AT AND ABOVE 700MB). FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH LINGERING LAKE CONVECTION...THEN IMPACTS OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUNDAY. TONIGHT...EASTERN UPPER: MULTI-BAND CONVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHIFTING WINDS...WITH FLOW ALREADY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE FAR END OF THE LAKE. STILL ONE MONSTER BAND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM EAST OF THE KEWEENAW INTO ALGER COUNTY WITH A SMALL BAND JUST TO ITS NORTH IMPACTING THE WHITEFISH POINT VICINITY. THIS BAND IS STARTING TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING SO AN EARLY PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND WHITEFISH POINT EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN LOWER: SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY BECOMING DUE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN M-68 AND M-72...WITH SOME EVENING FLURRIES SOUTH OF M-72/WEST OF US-27. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER TO FLURRIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY: DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES...WITH INCREASING SATURATION FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 LOOKING QUITE LIKE WINTER OUT THERE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE... WITH PLENTY TO WATCH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE DEALING WITH A COUPLE OF SYNOPTIC BOOSTS TO AN OVERALL ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE MEAN PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FROM THE ROCKIES CURRENTLY TO MORE OF A CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG BLOCKING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA GRADUALLY RELAXES. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (VERSUS UPSTREAM OF US INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY)...WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY 15-20+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE INTO MIDWEEK. BEFORE WE GET THERE...STILL LOOKING LIKE A QUICK ROUND OF SYNOPTIC SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TROUGHING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SECONDARY ENERGY DROPS THROUGH MANITOBA. STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LAG BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS TO KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND...RESULTING IN A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE NOTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...NOR IS FORCING OR UPPER SUPPORT...BUT STEADY WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING A 6-8 HOUR ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO LOOK DECENT FROM A SNOW GROWTH PERSPECTIVE...WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ LAYER BISECTED BY THE BEST OMEGA...SUGGESTING RATIOS WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 TO 1. COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF A LAKE COMPONENT OFF LAKE HURON WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY BACKS SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRIMARILY TARGETING THE STRAITS REGION UP TOWARD EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WHERE SOME ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED BETTER RATIOS. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL END SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT WITH LAKE SNOWS QUICKLY RAMPING UP AS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR CRASHES INTO THE REGION...WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO TUMBLE TOWARD -19C BY 00Z. MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOTHING TOO EXCITING...BUT JUST LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE ENTIRE CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE IN THE DGZ SO NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATION...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER WHERE EXPECTED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL PROVIDE THE MOST IMPACTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW WILL STEADILY BACK SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT... AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUNCHES THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY. QUICK VEERING PROFILES BACK MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THAT FRONT WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP ACCUMULATION FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND...BUT A QUICK FEW INCHES LOOKS LIKELY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. AFTER THAT...JUST COLD AND WINTRY RIGHT ON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS THE MEAN FLOW IS PROGGED TO SETTLE IN TO SOMETHING OF A WEST/ NORTHWEST DIRECTION...THOUGH OF COURSE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL WIGGLES AS WEAKER SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA. THOSE ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME JUST YET...BUT CERTAINLY DO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...PERHAPS MOST ENHANCED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE THINS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE "WARMEST" DAY BY FAR ON MONDAY...BEFORE HIGHS TUMBLE BACK THROUGH THE TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND PROBABLY BELOW ZERO AT TIMES PENDING CLOUD/WIND TRENDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 LAKE CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT ON LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON...AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON WHITEFISH BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SWING AROUND TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE GALES BY MONDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TJL SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...LAWRENCE MARINE...JPB  FXUS63 KAPX 092100 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 COLD AIR AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER REGIME MORE INDICATIVE OF JANUARY-FEBRUARY WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ONE WEATHER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER TAKES AIM ON THE REGION TUESDAY. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW LOWER TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY EARLY. ROBUST 850 MB CAA...SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...AND A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ARE THE KEY PLAYERS. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO ONTARIO THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTI-CYCLONIC AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING WSW FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH MID-LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WON/T OCCUR UNTIL ANOTHER 3-4 INCHES FALLS THIS EVENING ON TOP OF THE 4-5 INCHES THAT FELL TODAY /ACROSS PARTS OF EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES/. WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP ADVISORY GOING IN THESE AREAS...WITH SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ALSO OCCURRING. DECENT SNOW BURSTS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF NW LOWER. HOWEVER...EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER INCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH NRN MI FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NICE COHERENT POCKET OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AS FEATURE APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO SW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -17 TO -18C...THE ONGOING SCT-NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WILL INTENSIFY AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH /A RATHER CLASSIC SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED EVENT/. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THOUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN COORDINATION WITH GRR...HAVE HOISTED ADVISORY FOR LEELANAU/GRAND TRAVERSE/BENZIE/MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES...IN ANTICIPATION OF 3-5 INCHES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL KICK UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 KIND OF FEELING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE WITH THIS FORECAST...AS ROUND AND ROUND WE GO WITH VARIOUS BOUTS OF COLD AIR CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THAT WILL OF COURSE RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF WEAKER WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW. AS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS UNDERGOING A CHANGE...AS GULF OF ALASKA RIDGING IS BEING REPLACED BY A MUCH FLATTER FLOW REGIME....FAVORING A GRADUAL DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE LOWER 48...EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES INTO MIDWEEK. THIS OF COURSE MEANS THE HEART OF COLDEST AIR DRAINING FROM CANADA WILL BE AIMED AT OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (AS OPPOSED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS)...SUGGESTING THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THIS RECENT COLD STRETCH IS STILL TO COME FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FOR MIDWEEK...AND OF COURSE SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STARTING THINGS OFF...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DOWNRIGHT COLD AND WINTRY...WITH THE MEAN FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO MORE OF A WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES ITSELF EITHER SIDE OF THE LAKES. FROM A THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE...THE AIRMASS ALMOST GETS A LITTLE TOO COLD FOR GOOD SNOWS...AS MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER DIPS INTO THE -18C TO -25C RANGE. HOWEVER...STRONGER BACKGROUND FLOW UP AROUND 25 KNOTS AND MODEST INVERSION HEIGHTS UP TO AROUND 750MB COMBINED WITH A DECENT DEPTH OF DGZ DOWN BELOW 900MB (HELPED ALONG BY "WARMER" WATER TEMPS AT THE MOMENT) MAKES AN ARGUMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME HEALTHIER DIFFUSE BANDS IN PLAY...AND CAN EASILY FORESEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN RIGHT ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE FLOW REGIME GRADUALLY RELAXES. PERHAPS THE BEST SETUP WILL COME ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A LAKE/THERMAL TROUGHING INDUCED CONVERGENCE BAND WAVERING IN AND AROUND THE ZONE FROM PARADISE TOWARD THE SOO. THESE ARE THE TYPES OF SETUPS THAT ARE ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...BUT CAN DELIVER SOME VERY HEAVY SNOWS IN A SMALL STRIP. AT THE MOMENT...AND GIVEN THE SETUP...BEST GUESS IS FOR THAT BAND TO WAVER ONSHORE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY BECOME REINFORCED AS BUBBLE HIGH/DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS THE BEST CONVERGENCE FROM ABOUT BAY MILLS TOWARD PARADISE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FLOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ACTUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO WHAT SHOULD BE SOME VERY COLD INLAND TEMPS OVER ONTARIO...WHILE DRAINAGE FLOW MAY KICK THAT BAND WESTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE ALSO PULLING IT FARTHER INLAND. HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS CYCLE FOR BOTH CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST LOWER FOR SNOW AND WIND PRODUCING SOME BLOWING/ DRIFTING...AND THE NATURAL TENDENCY FOR MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER (I.E. LOW VISIBILITY) SNOW AT VARIOUS TIMES. SPEAKING OF WIND...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN IN THE -10 TO -20F RANGE - PROBABLY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY. HAVE SEEN PERSISTENT HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE OF SLOWLY BACKING FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALL THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN STATES. THAT MAY ACT TO PUNT THE STRONGER LAKE SUPERIOR CONVERGENCE JUST OFFSHORE...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO THIN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...BUT NOT SURE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...THOUGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS SHOULD IMPROVE AS MUCH OF THE CLOUD DEPTH MARCHES BACK THROUGH THE DGZ WITH A PUSH OF BOUNDARY LAYER "WARM" ADVECTION. AFTER THAT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A TIGHTER THERMAL ZONE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THAT IDEA MAY SUPPORT A ROUND OR TWO OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AS A COUPLE OF VERY WEAK WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE FLATTER FLOW...LIKELY HELPED ALONG BY WHAT SHOULD BE AN INCREASED FGEN RESPONSE...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT THAT LOOKS STRONGEST UPSTREAM OF HERE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NO MATTER HOW THAT SHAKES OUT...A FEW ROUNDS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL ONLY HELP THE LAKE EFFECT SITUATION...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT'S QUITE TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE...GIVEN A WEAKER GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE...BUT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN SPOTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PEEKING BEYOND THAT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT SOME SIGNALS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP THAT WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHARPLY COLDER AIR ROLLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SETUP AS THERE IS SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO EVOLVE AND PERHAPS MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD SHOT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THAT EVOLVES...IT DOES LOOK WE ARE HEADED INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS TO WRAP UP THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT...AND INTO TUESDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY NW LOWER MI /INCLUDING PLN-TVC-MBL/. FREQUENT IFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY AT PLN WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL GENERATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT PLN/TVC/MBL. AT APN /FARTHER FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN/ MAINLY VFR WX IS EXPECTED. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF 15-20 TO 1 CAN BE EXPECTED (NORMAL TO DRY CONSISTENCY SNOW). && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT... THANKS TO RESPECTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS LATER TONIGHT...GALES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS REINFORCING COLD AIR BLASTS INTO THE REGION. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ020- 025-026-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ021-022. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ016-017- 019. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ349. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>348. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ322. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NTS SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...LAWRENCE AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...SMITH  FXUS63 KAPX 190843 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 343 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 343 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE ALSO USHERING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ALONG WITH THAT COLD AIR WILL COME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...ENHANCED AT TIMES AS A FEW WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEMS ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 ...A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TODAY LEADS TO MUCH COLDER WX THIS WEEK... THE END IS NIGH! (FOR THE MORE "MILDER" WX THAT IS). TODAY WE WILL BE SETTING OUR SIGHTS ON AN INCOMING FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES OF COURSE BEING IMPACTS FROM THAT SYSTEM AND IT'S TRAILING COLD ADVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR PICS TELL THE TALE ALOFT...WITH ONE MODEST SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ON THE HEELS OF AN IMPRESSIVE 165+ KNOT MID LEVEL JET. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS APPROACHING CENTRAL JAMES BAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT LAID OUT FROM THERE BACK OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JUST ENTERING THE MN ARROWHEAD. BROAD WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY...HAVE SEEN A NICE FLAREUP IN FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHILE BETTER SNOWS LIE JUST UPSTREAM AT THE MOMENT. THAT WILL CHANGE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES AND A SLUG OF BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE UPPER WAVE. AS THIS OCCURS...HAVE NO DOUBT A RAPID FLARE-UP WILL OCCUR...AND INDEED ALREADY SEEING HINTS OF THIS JUST NOW ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT SETUP SHOULD BRING A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE SNOWS FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER THROUGH ROUGHLY 15-17Z AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. VEERING FLOW PROFILES MORE WESTERLY SHOULD ADD A BOOST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST LOWER...WHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A GENERAL 2-3"...THOUGH AMOUNTS HELD IN CHECK BY INITIALLY LOWER RATIOS AS THE LOWER 2/3RDS OF THE CLOUD PROFILE LOOK QUITE WARM (IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE). STRONG FLOW REGIME SHOULD KICK SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST INTO NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS. ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED MIXING INTO A BREEZY ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES...WITH SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ALSO A CONCERN. OVERALL...NOT FEELING LIKE THIS IS A HEADLINE EVENT GIVEN THE QUICK NATURE...BUT A FEW SPS ISSUANCES THROUGHOUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE. THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT STILL A LITTLE TRICKY...AS LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE ARCTIC FRONT A TOUCH...OWING TO THE BETTER UPPER ENERGY QUICKLY DEPARTING BY MID MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM TO NUDGE THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD...GIVING A MORE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. COUPLE THAT WITH A MODEST SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION THROUGH LATE DAY AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMAL REGIME FOR BIGGER RATIOS...AND SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS WILL NO DOUBT HANG OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32...WHERE WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME FLUFFIER ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...CONTINUE TO SEE HINTS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING-INDUCED CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS A BETTER SNOW BAND OR TWO SOMEWHERE ACROSS CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES...WHERE THE "BEST AIRMASS" FOR SNOW GROWTH WILL RESIDE...THOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT A BIT IN QUESTION AND WILL BE DICTATED BY JUST HOW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR CAN INTRUDE INTO THAT REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VEERING FLOW PROFILES MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY MORE NORTH VERY LATE TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASINGLY KICK MUCH OF THE BETTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR A MORE RAPID SOUTHWARD DRAINAGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER VEERING OF THE WINDS...SUGGESTING BETTER SNOW SHOWERS MAY HANG OUT FOR A TIME THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WHILE MUCH OF THE CLOUD DEPTH HANGS OUT SQUARELY IN THE DGZ WHILE A SECONDARY WEAKER PASSING VORT DELIVERS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER CENTERED ON 03Z. AS SUCH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A COUPLE SNEAKY INCHES OF FLUFF CLOUD FALL FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY BEFORE PSEUDO-DRAINAGE FLOW SETUP TAKES OVER AFTER 06Z. THESE TYPES OF SETUPS ARE ALWAYS CHALLENGING... AS IT DOESN'T TAKE MORE THAN 20-30 DEGREES OF WIND CHANGE TO THROW IN A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF FLUFF...BUT OVERALL DON'T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD HEADLINE-WORTHY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS PLUNGE BACK THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS... AND LIKELY BACK BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.P. AND PERHAPS DOWN TOWARD THE STRAITS AND INTERIOR LOWER. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 LONGWAVE PATTERN JUST DOESN'T WANT TO BREAK DOWN...REFUSING TO GET RID OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF ALASKA...AND KEEPING THE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS PATTERN LEAVES US IN A CONTINUED BOMBARDMENT OF SHORTWAVES AND REINFORCING COLDER AIR. AFTER THE ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE SAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT...WE MAY EVEN BE IN STORE FOR AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR NEXT WEEKEND. PRIOR TO THIS...MORE OF WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER...COLDER THAN NORMAL...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS DRIVING NON STOP LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO THE SNOWBELTS. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. H8 TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE AT -22C TO -24C IN EASTERN UPPER MONDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FURTHER ADVECTIONS. HOWEVER...THE -22C TO -24C ADVECTING INTO NRN LOWER BY MONDAY EVENING. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING...TWO LITTLE SHORTWAVES WILL WORK IN OVER THE REGION...THE FIRST ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND THE OTHER BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND FORCING. THE BEST WAVE FOR SEEING SOME DENDRITES (LIFT CENTERED ON THE DGZ) IS MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND WAVE CLIPS GTV BAY SOUTHWARD SCRAPING THE COLD END OF THE DGZ. THEN...THE DGZ BEGINS A STRONGER PUSH INTO THE GROUND...AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PILE ON IN WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT. JUST PLAIN COLD TEMPS AND SMALL FLAKES WITH MINIMAL ACCUMS. CAN FORESEE A GOOD 1-3" MONDAY WITH MAYBE 1-2" MONDAY NIGHT IN AND AROUND THE GTV BAY REGION WHERE NNW FLOW REMAINS UNCHANGED...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE 5-6KFT. LESS ELSEWHERE...BASED ON SMALLER FETCH AND ICE COVERAGE. EASTERN UPPER SNOWFALL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...WITH COLD DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF CANADA/THERMAL TROUGHING IN THIS AREA REALLY MAKING THINGS NEBULOUS. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALLER FLAKES SIZES AND LOW DGZ FOR TUESDAY...WITH NNW FLOW IN THE MORNING STARTING TO QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLY WSW BY DAY'S END. THESE WILL BE THE BIGGEST DETRIMENTS TO GOOD SNOWFALL. INVERSION HEIGHT STILL DECENT AROUND 5KFT. NO MORE THAN AN INCH ANYWHERE. THROUGH THE NIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW...WHILE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND THE DGZ REEMERGES. MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY EXISTING LAKE EFFECT. SNOWS WILL BE BECOMING A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE BY DAYBREAK...AND REALLY PICKING UP WEDNESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SNOWS SPREADING IN OVER LIKELY ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW IS RIGHT OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY STEADY STATE WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW. SYSTEM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR STARTING TO FILL BACK IN IN NORTHERLY FLOW AGAIN. SIMILAR DRAINAGE ISSUES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BACK WEST AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND COLD AIR SURGES. EXACT EVOLUTION UNCERTAIN...BUT EVENTUALLY A CLOSED OF UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO THE BEST SCENARIO. EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR POISED TO OUR NORTH AND DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE NOT LEAVING THE COLD PATTERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 SNOW AND BRISK CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MORNING...IFR AT TIMES SUNDAY. PRESENTLY...VERY LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MI ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING -SN/-SHSN TO ALL OF NORTHERN MI...BEGINNING TOWARD 12Z. IFR VSBYS EXPECTED AT TIMES...AND BLSN WILL ALSO FACTOR IN. SHSN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THEN VEER W AND NW AND INCREASE FURTHER BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 343 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 A QUICK ROUND OF STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINING OPEN NEARSHORE WATERS (GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT DOWN TO MANISTEE HARBOR). WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH TIME LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE WATERS. A FEW ROUNDS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ICE-FREE ZONES AS SAID FLOW WILL CONVERGE UP AGAINST THE LAND AND MAY ENHANCE SPEEDS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR LATE JANUARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...AS A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM PERHAPS ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMD SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE LONG TERM...SMD AVIATION...JZ MARINE...LAWRENCE  FXUS63 KAPX 020716 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 316 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO WET WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 ...SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN (AND PERHAPS PLENTY OF IT FOR SOME)... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DONE! IMPACT WEATHER NOW CENTERED ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: PATTERN CHANGE TO AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WETTER ONE IS TAKING PLACE WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SET UP BEAUTIFULLY FOR SUCH...WITH CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGING NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALL-THE-WHILE TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH STATIONED IN A PERFECT NORTHWARD MOISTURE PUMPING POSITION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS EVIDENT BY BROAD AREA OF AOA 1.25 INCH PWAT VALUES ON REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS SURGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH GREATER THAN INCH AND A HALF NUMBERS POKING UP INTO THE CORN BELT. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES...INTERACTING WITH WEAK UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT (ALL COLLOCATED NICELY WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME)...IS KICKING OFF A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH OCCURRED ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS PAST EVENING. MAIN THUNDERSTORM CONCERN HAS SHOWN ITS CARDS...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WITH SOME LOCALIZED GREATER THAN THREE INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THROUGH TONIGHT: ADDRESSING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY/AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. DAILY DETAILS: WHOLE PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST TODAY...PUTTING OUR AREA SQUARELY UNDER DEEPEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND IN FAVORABLE REGION TO SEE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES (CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED?) SWEEP OVERHEAD. APPEARS "STRONGEST" FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN WAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN RIPE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXTENT OF COVERAGE STILL MUCH IN QUESTION. TRENDS STILL SUPPORT MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION/ML CAPE PROFILES OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG/...SUPPORTS MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SAME CANNOT BE SAID ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY IN LIEU OF WHAT HAPPENED UPSTREAM THIS PAST EVENING. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS HAVE AN EFFICIENT/HIGH PRECIP RATE LOOK TO THEM...WITH DEEP AND SKINNY CAPE RIGHT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE...AND WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEPTH WITHIN THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER. CELLS WILL BE TRANSIENT...BUT PROLONGED OPPORTUNITY TO GET ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEFTY RAIN TOTALS. GIVEN PWATS 2-3SD ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...LOCALIZED AREAS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION UNFOLDS TODAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS DRY SLOT PINWHEELS QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. RATHER DEEP (FOR JUNE) LOW PRESSURE CUTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN THE PROCESS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH VICINITY NORTHEAST LOWER COASTLINE BY MORNING. WHILE ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT PINWHEELS ACROSS THE REGION...JUST NOT REALLY SURE OF SHOWER COVERAGE GIVEN DEPTH OF DRY SLOT AND STEADILY DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. DECENT SLUG OF PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. IN FACT...ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS...LIFTING A PARCEL FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE DRUMS UP OVER 1K JOULES/KG OF CAPE...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONE COULD ARGUE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT WOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE CAPE UP THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. LACK OF DEEP SHEAR SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN CHECK. WILL KEEP JUST A SCATTERED TYPE WORDING FOR SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE FOR NOW...ENDING "BEST" POTENTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY FROM TUE MORNING TO WED MORNING. THOUGH WE/RE WELL INTO THE COOLER/DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SOME CHANGES SEEN IN MID-WEEK GUIDANCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CREST THE SOUTHERN US UPPER RIDGE...RACE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND INTERACT/PHASE WITH ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS IS A SOGGIER SOLUTION FOR US THAN WAS SEEN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. TUESDAY/TUE EVENING...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH BRIEF BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND. A NARROW 850MB THERMAL TROF...WITH READINGS FROM 3C NORTH TO 6C SOUTH...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES...AS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS IMPULSES PIVOT THRU THE MEAN 500MB TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA CHANCES NORTH OF M-32...AND LIKELY POPS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO IN THE AFTERNOON. IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUB-700MB MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH FAR SE SECTIONS WILL REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S. READINGS WILL IMPRESSIVELY FALL INTO AND THRU THE 50S IN EASTERN UPPER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND DESCEND BACK INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE. TUE OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WE/LL BE BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND IN A LOW-LEVEL COL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN PARTICULAR MAY GET A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTIAL CLEARING. ON WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE IOWA/MO BORDER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MI. THE SHARP NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NAM/GFS REQUIRES EXTENDING POPS NORTHWARD...FOR NOW AS FAR NORTH AS M-32. GIVEN THE MODELS WOBBLY PERFORMANCE HERE...AND THE DICEY NATURE OF STREAM INTERACTIONS...WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH JUST YET. MIN TEMPS MAINLY 40S. MAX TEMPS MAINLY 60S. REST OF THE FORECAST...CHANCE POPS IN LINE INTO WED NIGHT IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AS THE LOW HEADS FOR THE EASTERN LAKES. 500MB RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL CANADA. THAT WILL KEEP THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND DRY...WITH TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH DEEPER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL PRECIP CHANCES EMERGING FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK REMAIN GUSTY AND FROM THE SW WHILE SURFACE WINDS STAY BELOW 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE REMAINING JUST BELOW SUCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS VEER A TOUCH MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY...AND REMAIN A BIT GUSTY DURING THE MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. A WARM HUMID AIRMASS CROSSING THE COLD WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MR MARINE...MSB  FXUS63 KAPX 021535 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO WET WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 UPDATED GRIDS TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...WITH THREE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM. FIRST IS TRAILING STRATIFORM AREA OF CONVECTION CROSSING WESTERN UPPER/EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH TIMES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FARTHER SOUTH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...HAS SOME CONVECTION WITH IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION (AROUND 700J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON MODIFICATION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING). SO WILL WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FEATURE MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.50 INCHES/K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ECHO TRAINING...AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. DECENT INSTABILITY THOUGH FAIRLY WARM ALOFT WILL PROBABLY LIMIT HAIL CHANCES...MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION LOADING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 ...SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN (AND PERHAPS PLENTY OF IT FOR SOME)... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DONE! IMPACT WEATHER NOW CENTERED ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: PATTERN CHANGE TO AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WETTER ONE IS TAKING PLACE WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SET UP BEAUTIFULLY FOR SUCH...WITH CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGING NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALL-THE-WHILE TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH STATIONED IN A PERFECT NORTHWARD MOISTURE PUMPING POSITION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS EVIDENT BY BROAD AREA OF AOA 1.25 INCH PWAT VALUES ON REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS SURGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH GREATER THAN INCH AND A HALF NUMBERS POKING UP INTO THE CORN BELT. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES...INTERACTING WITH WEAK UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT (ALL COLLOCATED NICELY WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME)...IS KICKING OFF A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH OCCURRED ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS PAST EVENING. MAIN THUNDERSTORM CONCERN HAS SHOWN ITS CARDS...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WITH SOME LOCALIZED GREATER THAN THREE INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THROUGH TONIGHT: ADDRESSING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY/AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. DAILY DETAILS: WHOLE PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST TODAY...PUTTING OUR AREA SQUARELY UNDER DEEPEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND IN FAVORABLE REGION TO SEE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES (CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED?) SWEEP OVERHEAD. APPEARS "STRONGEST" FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN WAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN RIPE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXTENT OF COVERAGE STILL MUCH IN QUESTION. TRENDS STILL SUPPORT MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION/ML CAPE PROFILES OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG/...SUPPORTS MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SAME CANNOT BE SAID ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY IN LIEU OF WHAT HAPPENED UPSTREAM THIS PAST EVENING. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS HAVE AN EFFICIENT/HIGH PRECIP RATE LOOK TO THEM...WITH DEEP AND SKINNY CAPE RIGHT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE...AND WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEPTH WITHIN THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER. CELLS WILL BE TRANSIENT...BUT PROLONGED OPPORTUNITY TO GET ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEFTY RAIN TOTALS. GIVEN PWATS 2-3SD ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...LOCALIZED AREAS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION UNFOLDS TODAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS DRY SLOT PINWHEELS QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. RATHER DEEP (FOR JUNE) LOW PRESSURE CUTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN THE PROCESS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH VICINITY NORTHEAST LOWER COASTLINE BY MORNING. WHILE ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT PINWHEELS ACROSS THE REGION...JUST NOT REALLY SURE OF SHOWER COVERAGE GIVEN DEPTH OF DRY SLOT AND STEADILY DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. DECENT SLUG OF PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. IN FACT...ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS...LIFTING A PARCEL FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE DRUMS UP OVER 1K JOULES/KG OF CAPE...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONE COULD ARGUE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT WOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE CAPE UP THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. LACK OF DEEP SHEAR SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN CHECK. WILL KEEP JUST A SCATTERED TYPE WORDING FOR SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE FOR NOW...ENDING "BEST" POTENTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY FROM TUE MORNING TO WED MORNING. THOUGH WE/RE WELL INTO THE COOLER/DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SOME CHANGES SEEN IN MID-WEEK GUIDANCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CREST THE SOUTHERN US UPPER RIDGE...RACE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND INTERACT/PHASE WITH ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS IS A SOGGIER SOLUTION FOR US THAN WAS SEEN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. TUESDAY/TUE EVENING...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH BRIEF BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND. A NARROW 850MB THERMAL TROF...WITH READINGS FROM 3C NORTH TO 6C SOUTH...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES...AS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS IMPULSES PIVOT THRU THE MEAN 500MB TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA CHANCES NORTH OF M-32...AND LIKELY POPS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO IN THE AFTERNOON. IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUB-700MB MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH FAR SE SECTIONS WILL REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S. READINGS WILL IMPRESSIVELY FALL INTO AND THRU THE 50S IN EASTERN UPPER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND DESCEND BACK INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE. TUE OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WE/LL BE BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND IN A LOW-LEVEL COL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN PARTICULAR MAY GET A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTIAL CLEARING. ON WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE IOWA/MO BORDER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MI. THE SHARP NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NAM/GFS REQUIRES EXTENDING POPS NORTHWARD...FOR NOW AS FAR NORTH AS M-32. GIVEN THE MODELS WOBBLY PERFORMANCE HERE...AND THE DICEY NATURE OF STREAM INTERACTIONS...WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH JUST YET. MIN TEMPS MAINLY 40S. MAX TEMPS MAINLY 60S. REST OF THE FORECAST...CHANCE POPS IN LINE INTO WED NIGHT IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AS THE LOW HEADS FOR THE EASTERN LAKES. 500MB RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL CANADA. THAT WILL KEEP THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND DRY...WITH TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH DEEPER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL PRECIP CHANCES EMERGING FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 MVFR AT TIMES TODAY DUE TO CIGS/SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS NOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND NUMEROUS SHRA/SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE EVENING. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY. WE WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S TO SW BREEZES THRU THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE REMAINING JUST BELOW SUCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS VEER A TOUCH MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY...AND REMAIN A BIT GUSTY DURING THE MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. A WARM HUMID AIRMASS CROSSING THE COLD WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...JZ MARINE...MSB  FXUS63 KAPX 021732 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 132 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO WET WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 UPDATED GRIDS TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...WITH THREE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM. FIRST IS TRAILING STRATIFORM AREA OF CONVECTION CROSSING WESTERN UPPER/EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH TIMES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. FARTHER SOUTH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...HAS SOME CONVECTION WITH IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION (AROUND 700J/KG MLCAPE BASED ON MODIFICATION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING). SO WILL WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FEATURE MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.50 INCHES/K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ECHO TRAINING...AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGHER PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. DECENT INSTABILITY THOUGH FAIRLY WARM ALOFT WILL PROBABLY LIMIT HAIL CHANCES...MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION LOADING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 ...SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN (AND PERHAPS PLENTY OF IT FOR SOME)... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DONE! IMPACT WEATHER NOW CENTERED ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. LARGER SCALE OVERVIEW: PATTERN CHANGE TO AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WETTER ONE IS TAKING PLACE WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SET UP BEAUTIFULLY FOR SUCH...WITH CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGING NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALL-THE-WHILE TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH STATIONED IN A PERFECT NORTHWARD MOISTURE PUMPING POSITION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS EVIDENT BY BROAD AREA OF AOA 1.25 INCH PWAT VALUES ON REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS SURGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH GREATER THAN INCH AND A HALF NUMBERS POKING UP INTO THE CORN BELT. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES...INTERACTING WITH WEAK UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT (ALL COLLOCATED NICELY WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME)...IS KICKING OFF A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH OCCURRED ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS PAST EVENING. MAIN THUNDERSTORM CONCERN HAS SHOWN ITS CARDS...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WITH SOME LOCALIZED GREATER THAN THREE INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THROUGH TONIGHT: ADDRESSING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY/AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. DAILY DETAILS: WHOLE PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST TODAY...PUTTING OUR AREA SQUARELY UNDER DEEPEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND IN FAVORABLE REGION TO SEE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES (CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED?) SWEEP OVERHEAD. APPEARS "STRONGEST" FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN WAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN RIPE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT RIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXTENT OF COVERAGE STILL MUCH IN QUESTION. TRENDS STILL SUPPORT MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN IMPULSE ARRIVES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION/ML CAPE PROFILES OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG/...SUPPORTS MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SAME CANNOT BE SAID ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY IN LIEU OF WHAT HAPPENED UPSTREAM THIS PAST EVENING. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS HAVE AN EFFICIENT/HIGH PRECIP RATE LOOK TO THEM...WITH DEEP AND SKINNY CAPE RIGHT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE...AND WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD DEPTH WITHIN THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER. CELLS WILL BE TRANSIENT...BUT PROLONGED OPPORTUNITY TO GET ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEFTY RAIN TOTALS. GIVEN PWATS 2-3SD ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...LOCALIZED AREAS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION UNFOLDS TODAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TONIGHT AS DRY SLOT PINWHEELS QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. RATHER DEEP (FOR JUNE) LOW PRESSURE CUTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN THE PROCESS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH VICINITY NORTHEAST LOWER COASTLINE BY MORNING. WHILE ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT PINWHEELS ACROSS THE REGION...JUST NOT REALLY SURE OF SHOWER COVERAGE GIVEN DEPTH OF DRY SLOT AND STEADILY DIMINISHING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. DECENT SLUG OF PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. IN FACT...ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM-BUFR SOUNDINGS...LIFTING A PARCEL FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE DRUMS UP OVER 1K JOULES/KG OF CAPE...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONE COULD ARGUE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT WOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE CAPE UP THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. LACK OF DEEP SHEAR SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN CHECK. WILL KEEP JUST A SCATTERED TYPE WORDING FOR SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE FOR NOW...ENDING "BEST" POTENTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY FROM TUE MORNING TO WED MORNING. THOUGH WE/RE WELL INTO THE COOLER/DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SOME CHANGES SEEN IN MID-WEEK GUIDANCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CREST THE SOUTHERN US UPPER RIDGE...RACE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND INTERACT/PHASE WITH ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS IS A SOGGIER SOLUTION FOR US THAN WAS SEEN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. TUESDAY/TUE EVENING...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH BRIEF BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND. A NARROW 850MB THERMAL TROF...WITH READINGS FROM 3C NORTH TO 6C SOUTH...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES...AS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS IMPULSES PIVOT THRU THE MEAN 500MB TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA CHANCES NORTH OF M-32...AND LIKELY POPS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO IN THE AFTERNOON. IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUB-700MB MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH FAR SE SECTIONS WILL REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S. READINGS WILL IMPRESSIVELY FALL INTO AND THRU THE 50S IN EASTERN UPPER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND DESCEND BACK INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE. TUE OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WE/LL BE BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND IN A LOW-LEVEL COL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN PARTICULAR MAY GET A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTIAL CLEARING. ON WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE IOWA/MO BORDER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MI. THE SHARP NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NAM/GFS REQUIRES EXTENDING POPS NORTHWARD...FOR NOW AS FAR NORTH AS M-32. GIVEN THE MODELS WOBBLY PERFORMANCE HERE...AND THE DICEY NATURE OF STREAM INTERACTIONS...WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH JUST YET. MIN TEMPS MAINLY 40S. MAX TEMPS MAINLY 60S. REST OF THE FORECAST...CHANCE POPS IN LINE INTO WED NIGHT IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AS THE LOW HEADS FOR THE EASTERN LAKES. 500MB RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL CANADA. THAT WILL KEEP THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND DRY...WITH TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH DEEPER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL PRECIP CHANCES EMERGING FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING THROUGH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT PLN AND MBL WITH WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE REMAINING JUST BELOW SUCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS VEER A TOUCH MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY...AND REMAIN A BIT GUSTY DURING THE MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. A WARM HUMID AIRMASS CROSSING THE COLD WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SYNOPSIS...JZ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...JZ MARINE...MSB  FXUS63 KAPX 222027 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 327 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -30F OVERNIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST CHALLENGES: CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL DRASTICALLY AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES. OVERVIEW...SFC HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE 500 MB POLAR VORTEX JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME THIN AREAS OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AS ENHANCEMENTS ON OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT...THE EVENING TIME FRAME STARTS AS WE ARE NOW, WITH THE VERY LIGHT LES OVER THE REGION WITH SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS. MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE 500 MB TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE REGION BY 06Z. SO THE LIGHT LES, AND CLOUD STREETS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z. GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE THE MORE BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, THE ECMWF BEGINS TO PULL THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM12 AND HIRESW-ARW-EAST MODELS WITH LESS MOISTURE AND PULLING IT EAST EVEN FASTER. CONSIDERING THE THINNESS OF THE LAKE BANDS AS FAR AS CLOUD DEPTH, THINK THAT CLOUDS MAY THIN AFTER 03Z AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT MORE TOWARD A WNW FLOW. THE SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (<5 KNOTS) OVERNIGHT, AND WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING HAVE SPREAD THE SUB 15 BELOW TEMPERATURES OUT. HOWEVER, AS NOTED THE CLOUD FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE, SO THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS WELL. IF THE CLOUDS STAY IN, WHICH IS POSSIBLE, TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5 DEGREES WARMER, WHILE IF IT CLEARS OUT THEY COULD BE 5 DEGREES COLDER. WHICH MEANS THAT SOME ISOLATED PLACES COULD BE EVEN COLDER APPROACHING -30F. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE QUITE LOW HOWEVER. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ARCTIC AIR/WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING. SNOW/WIND/BLOWING SNOW EVENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN INTO EARLY MARCH...ALTHOUGH OVERALL PATTERN DOES BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AS PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKENS AND OUR TAP TO CROSS-POLAR SIBERIAN AIR DIMINISHES. IN THE SHORT TERM...JUST MORE ARCTIC AIR AS SHORTWAVES DRAW PIECES OF THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC...WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT WIND AND LIGHT SNOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: IMPACT OF WIND/LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. DETAILS: QUIET MONDAY EVENING GIVES WAY TO FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT IT/S IMPACTS COULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL. LOOKING AT SNOWFALL AMOUNT POTENTIAL...NOTHING TO GET REALLY EXCITED ABOUT. PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 INCHES /WHICH ACTUALLY IS NOT THAT BAD GIVEN RECENT MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS/...MID LEVEL MIXING RATIO/S OF 1-2 G/KG AND SOME OMEGA PEGGED WITHIN THE FAVORED DGZ SUPPORT 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN-WESTERN AREAS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST TOWARD LAKE HURON. THESE KINDS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS ALSO MATCH UP NICELY WITH THE BEST MATCH CIPS ANALOGS. EASTERN UPPER SNOWFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONTRIBUTIONS...WITH NORTHWEST LOWER IN A FAVORED LAKE ENHANCED FORCED UPSLOPE REGIME AS INITIAL SOUTHWEST WINDS VEER NORTHWEST BY LATER TUESDAY. BIGGER AND MUCH HIGHER IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES ...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD VERY WELL TRANSLATE TO 30+ MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST UP THROUGH THE STRAITS. HAVE GROWING CONCERN FOR A HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW/LOW VISIBILITY EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY BEAVER ISLAND...US-2...AND PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN COAST INTO THE STRAITS. LARGE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE A NICE PLATFORM FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS /WE SAW THIS SCENARIO OCCUR SEVERAL TIMES LAST WINTER/. SREF VISIBILITY PROGS SHOW THIS SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE...WITH A SWATH OF <1 MILE VSBYS DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL EMPHASIZE THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC. ACTUAL ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL GOING TO BE COLD...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS. SOME NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT A BIG DEAL GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPANSIVE LAKE ICE. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 FAR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS THE NEXT ARCTIC WAVE DIVES SOUTH OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...MAKING FOR A COLD AND MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STILL SOME OPEN WATER TO CONTEND WITH...SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND REGIMES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING SOME WAA SNOWS NORTHWARD...BUT ALSO MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AGAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 118 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 THIN LES BANDS ARE STREAMING OFF THE ICE COVERED LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH SOME SMALL SNOW FLAKES. MBL AND TVC ARE THE TWO SITES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH PLN POSSIBLY GETTING SOME SNOW LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW. HOWEVER, BY THAT TIME, DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DIMINISH THE SNOW BANDS, AND APN PRETTY MUCH JUST GETTING VFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES. OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT PLN AND APN, WITH MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE AT MBL AND TVC. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ008-015>036-041- 042. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JSL SHORT TERM...KEYSOR LONG TERM...TJL AVIATION...JSL  FXUS63 KAPX 101941 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 341 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: PER AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES. STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO HAVE BOWED BACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY NOW UP INTO THE PTK/FNT AREA AND ARCING BACK DOWN THROUGH NRN INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEFORE CURVING BACK TO OUR STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM OVER NE NEBRASKA. SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS/STORMS (AND SEVERE WEATHER) ARE UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS TODAY WITH THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF OCCLUDING COLD FRONT THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA DOWN INTO TEXAS. IN THE GREAT LAKES...PESKY LIGHT SHOWERS JUST WOULD NOT GIVE IT UP TODAY...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLY WEATHER TO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT...REGIONAL RADAR PLOT DOES SUGGEST THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...PESKY SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH NOTHING OCCURRING BACK THROUGH WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS FOR THE TIME BEING. AM HOPEFUL WE CAN GET THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MINOR IF ANY PRECIP ALTHOUGH I WILL HANG ON TO A LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN CASE SOMETHING ELSE DECIDES TO DEVELOP...AND/OR WE GET SOME NUISANCE DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN...PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND MAKE IT/S WAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL GET SHOVED BACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT TOWARD MONDAY MORNING WITH ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MIDWEST SWINGING UP TOWARD NRN MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING. CONVECTION WILL SURELY WEAKEN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES AND IT ADVANCES INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES. BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SWINGING UP INTO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ...RAIN AND SOME THUNDER MONDAY... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. PATTERN/FORECAST: THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A PLETHORA OF CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER HAZARDS IN THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. FULL AMPLITUDE ALBEIT SKINNY RIDGING IS WEST OF THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING A BLOCK TO ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY. NORTHERN MICHIGAN FINDS ITSELF UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF WITH THE LLEVELS DOMINATED BY COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE HIGH HAS OOZED SOUTH INTO THE REGION PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO A CURRENT LOCATION NEAR THE MI/IN/OH BORDER. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL RECONNECT WITH THE WESTERLIES AS IT EJECTS NORTH AND EAST WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE MN/IA AREA THIS EVENING MOVING NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS PORTENDS THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WITH FORECAST CONCERNS CENTERING ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES /SEVERE POTENTIAL?/ WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION. THE DETAILS... MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO START THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK...IN CONCERT WITH MOISTURE SURGE AT H8 /PWATS MOVING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES - AROUND PEAK OBSERVED VALUE AT APX FOR EARLY-MIDDLE MAY/ AS LLJ OF 30-40KTS RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONTAL SURFACE. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS THAT RIDE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED THUNDER...WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER CHANCES WARRANTED...BUT TOO LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO THE OCCLUDING LOW TO OUR WEST AND APPROACHING WARM SECTOR/COLD FRONT. IN CLASSIC NORTHERN MICHIGAN STYLE...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CAN ADVANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KINEMATICS/DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE THERE AS MID LEVEL WAVE SPREADS HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION AT H5 WITH 110KT H2 JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE RRQ OF THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A WEAKER SIGNAL ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. LLJ IS NOT PARTICULARLY INTENSE /~30KTS/ AND LLEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARRIVING FRONT DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL PROBABLY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW OVERCAST OVER NORTHEAST LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH THIS AREA RAPIDLY BLOSSOMING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 0-3KM MUCAPES REACH PERHAPS 500-750 J/KG OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...SPC OUTLOOK IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH OUR THINKING...THAT...FOR THE MOST PART...THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WHERE MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM /WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND/ CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER /SOUTHEAST OF AN CAD-APN LINE/ AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THESE THOUGHTS ARE ALSO IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT NCAR HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WOULD BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FOR NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...BEING CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW TRACK...HAVE A FEELING THAT WE NEVER FULLY BREAK OUT OF THE LOW STUFF...AND POTENTIALLY MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIER SHRA/STORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PWATS AS WELL AS DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS /APPROACHING 10KFT/. TEMPERATURES LARGELY WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER...WITH T8S SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FULLY MIXED. I DON/T THINK WE/LL QUITE GET THERE...EVEN OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE A RUN AT 70-73 APPEARS MOST LIKELY. OVER EASTERN UPPER...WITH THE LOW TRACK LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF HERE...EXPECT LLEVEL EASTERLIES TO KEEP HIGHS STUCK IN THE LOWER 50S. DRYSLOT LOOKS TO RAPIDLY ENTER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO AN END. EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT TO BE A BIT OF A LULL PERIOD WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE REGION /WITH MORE DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES/. COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S UNDER DEVELOPING MODERATE WSW WINDS. COOL...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY UNDER CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WITH T8S FALLING FROM 1-3C IN THE MORNING TO -1 TO -3C BY EVENING. A RAW DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL QG FORCING /ALONG WITH DAYTIME BL HEATING/ PROMPTING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS /WITH SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT/. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN THIS SCENARIO...SOME 10-15F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. AS INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THERE COULD BE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT REALLY OF NO CONSEQUENCE IMPACT-WISE. TEMPS LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR /PWATS SUB 0.25"/ SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WITH T8S EDGING BACK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION BEYOND THURSDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE(S) POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH PARTS OF THAT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH FULLY EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE LOTS OF DRY TIME AS TIMING/DEVELOPMENT DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES START RATHER CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WARM UP BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 LOTS OF IFR AND POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH OF CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS...BUT LOTS OF IFR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. NO THUNDER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE AND THROUGH THE STRAITS...PARTICULARLY TOWARD MORNING. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR NOW. ON MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON...AND BACK TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO TOUCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BUT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY COME ON TUESDAY ON NW FLOW AS SOME COLDER AIR SPILLS BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...ADAM SHORT TERM...ARNOTT LONG TERM...GILLEN AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...ADAM  FXUS63 KAPX 060920 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 520 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 ...WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH RAIN THREAT INCREASING TONIGHT... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES MICHIGAN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC...AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT SNAKES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR (70+F DEW POINTS SPAN THE MIDWEST). SHORT WAVE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW THAT PLAGUED MICHIGAN SINCE MIDWEEK HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG/STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS THIS MORNING...WITH MORE CLEARING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET STRETCHED OUT IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST FASHION BY PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL FLOW. FRONT EXPECTED TO STILL BE UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LABOR DAY MORNING. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING...INCREASE RAIN THREAT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAYBE SOME POP-UP CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON?? TODAY...WILL START TODAY LIKE YESTERDAY...THOUGH REVERSED BETWEEN UPPER AND LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THICKER FOG/STRATUS ABOVE THE BRIDGE AND A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SHOULD LINGER FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BUT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE EVEN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CASTING A WARY EYE ON THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY UPSTREAM. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THAT IS SOME CONCERN SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO MAKE SURE NOTHING TRIES TO POP NEARBY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE CLOUDS MIX OUT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER LOOKING AT A WARM AND SULTRY AFTERNOON AS HIGH DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 80S. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON (ON THE ORDER OF 500-800J/KG MLCAPE)...AND THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY BUBBLE UP CENTERED AROUND THUNDER BAY WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. TONIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION ROLLING EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND PROBABLY INTO EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LABOR DAY BRIDGE WALK PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE STRAITS (9/7)MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, THE QUESTION WILL BE WHEN DURING THE DAY WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS TIME THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY AROUND 00Z. THIS IS SEEMING TO SHOW THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE STRAITS BY NOON-ISH, AND THROUGH M-72 BY 00Z, OR MAYBE M-55. LOOKING OVER THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS DOESN'T LOOK GREAT, AS THE MAIN DYNAMIC FEATURES, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS JUST GETTING INTO THE UPPER E UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MIT AROUND 06Z WELL AFTER THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL, AS THE NEXT WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE UP OUT OF THE SW. (9/8)TUESDAY...THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS NEXT WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE FRONT FROM THE C PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY ISN'T GREAT AS SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL LAYER MUCAPES (925-850 MB AND 0-1KM) ARE ONLY ~200 J/KG. SO THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE NORTH AGAIN. THEN ONCE THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LEFT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THE SAME, ALTHOUGH THINK THAT IT WON'T BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE DAY AS THE INSTABILITY DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH IF ANY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT NIGHT, IT IS MORE LIKELY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER THAN ANYTHING ELSE. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH FLATTENING OUT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE RAIN WILL STOP BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, HAVE HAD TO REINTRODUCE CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS IS SLOWING DOWN THE RAIN FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT, SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS, AND WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY CLOUDY AS THE 500 MB TROUGH SHARPENS UP IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS ALSO PUSHES MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE GFS ARE 0C TO +2C. THE ECMWF IS +2C TO +4C. LE RAIN IS LIKELY AND DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD DEPTHS, MIGHT BE A GOOD WATERSPOUT DAY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WEAK SW LOW LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HUMID AIRMASS...AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT. TVC WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...THE OTHER SITES IFR TO LIFR. IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING SHOULD BE A SMIDGEN FASTER THAN THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. MINIMAL SHRA/TSRA RISK UNTIL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SW WIND INCREASING TO NEAR 10KT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. LLWS TVC/MBL/PLN SUNDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2015 TODAY/TONIGHT...MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS WAVES BUILD ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF WIND. OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ON LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO WAVES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JPB SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...JAZ MARINE...JPB  FXUS63 KAPX 081104 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 704 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 ...WET DAY AHEAD BUT LAST DAY OF HUMIDITY... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE TODAY. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1017MB) WAS CENTERED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. SOUPY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ARC OF 40-50MM VALUES FROM THE LOWER LAKES/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BACK TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. 00Z APX SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (ON THE ORDER OF 1200J/KG MUCAPE)...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP SOUTH OF M-32 LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS OVERALL WIND FLOW IS LIGHT BELOW 700MB...WITH A ROUGE SHOWER OVER LUCE COUNTY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONGEALING OVER THE MIDWEST. DIFFUSE FRONT LYING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY STATIONARY TODAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND. STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO SLICE ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND FINALLY KNOCK DOWN THIS PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIR MASS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: DETAILS REGARDING RAINFALL OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. TODAY...LOOKS LIKE TODAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...AS COMBINATION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY POPPING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING OF UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFICIENT GIVEN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.50-2.00 INCHES EXPECTED AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER). GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00 INCH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH THAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN RATHER WEAK FOCUSING MECHANISMS. TONIGHT...COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT. LAST OF THE DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING INTO LAKE HURON DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS...AND GIVEN LIGHT FLOW WILL PROBABLY BE FOLLOWED BY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. APPROACH OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AS WELL AS RIGHT ENTRANCE JET FORCING MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FRONT PASSES. && .SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE (9/9)WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER AND NOW HAVE THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN AND HOLDS THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. A SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA, AND ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT RUNNING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR, BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WHICH BEGINS TO PRODUCE RAIN TO THE WEST, IN WISCONSIN. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN SHOULD STAY WEST, AS THE NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. (9/10)THURSDAY...THE SFC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE PUSHES, THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY SMALL, AND SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, WILL KEEP THAT AT THIS POINT, BUT GETTING THE FEELING WITH THE COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES (IN THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) THAT THERE WON'T BE REALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. THEN OVERNIGHT, THE RAIN SHOWERS, OR MAYBE IT WILL JUST BE AN AREA OF RAIN, SET UPS WAS THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSIVELY MOVES IN, COLDER 850 MB AIR CONTINUES INTO THE REGION AS WELL SO THAT WE WILL PROBABLY SET UP LAKE EFFECT RAIN, ALTHOUGH WITH THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND OUT OF THE NORTH- NORTHEAST, WE'LL STAY OUT OF IT INITIALLY UNTIL FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF ISN'T AS DEEP OR CUT OFF AND THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER. THE ECMWF DOES PUSH THE RAIN THROUGH FASTER AS WELL AS THE CUT OFF SO THAT THE TIMING THE END OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY IS PRETTY CLOSE AND THAT THE COOL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY, TOO, LOOKS DRY, AND THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. ONE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A LOW END THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH AN UPPER LOW, DELTA TS OF 16C AND CLOUD DEPTHS OF 5000-10000 FEET. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 ANTICIPATED IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALL TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015 TODAY/TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ONLY MARINE ISSUE WILL BE POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG. OUTLOOK...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE HURON ZONES WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE... MAY BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JPB SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL MARINE...JPB  FXUS63 KAPX 102003 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 403 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 UPSTREAM COLD FRONT HAS REACHED ERN UPR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY HAS NEARLY PUSHED EAST OF OUR CWA INTO LAKE HURON. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREA OF PRECIP...SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FILLING IN. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY CLEARING OUR SE COUNTIES BY AROUND 02Z OR SO. ALL NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER EXPANSION OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO AND THRU NRN LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCAPES ONLY INCREASE TO LESS THAN 500 JOULES...BUT THIS HAS OBVIOUSLY BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN. PUBLIC REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OUT OF NRN CHIPPEWA COUNTY SUGGEST SMALL HAIL OCCURRING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS WHICH...GIVEN THE WEAK ONGOING CAA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...IS CERTAINLY A REASONABLE EXPECTATION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR WX WITH THESE STORMS AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS LACKING AND INSTABILITY QUITE WEAK. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THRU 00Z BEFORE FROPA OCCURS...AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS THRU THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAA KICKS IN ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGE: LAKE EFFECT RAIN POTENTIAL, AND WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH OF GREAT LAKES REGION PULLS COLD AIR THROUGH MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AXIS OF COLDEST AIR MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION IN THE LAKE EFFECT FAVORED FLOW AREAS. BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH 1000-850MB WINDS MAINLY NORTH. WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO EARLY (OVERNIGHT) SATURDAY AS NOMOGRAM SHOWS MARGINAL CHANCE WITH LAKE-850MB T DIFF OF 15 TO 20 AND CLOUD DEPTH OF 7 TO 10KFT ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60F...ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ITS WAY OUT RIGHT NOW...BUT DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM UNDERNEATH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS HIGH SHOULD REACH MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THINKING MODEL GUIDANCE WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH WAS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL EXIT EAST TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHILE NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH STRETCHED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC SUNDAY... WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A NORTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE DRY CONDS OVER NRN MI TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...WHILE THE CHANCE OF PCPN INCREASES THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING NRN PLAINS BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM 12C MONDAY TO NEARLY 16C WED AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT SWINGS THRU. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL). && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR NEARSHORE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN OUR NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY THANKS TO STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...KJF LONG TERM...SWR AVIATION...MLR MARINE...MLR  FXUS63 KAPX 110711 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OF LAKE HURON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN...NORTHERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO NORTHERN MI. MASS OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN NORTH OF SUPERIOR...AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS SEEN THERE AS WELL. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME PATCHY STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...NOT TOO EXTENSIVE. CLOUD TRENDS AND MARGINAL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. TODAY...LOOKS LIKE WILL NEED TO ALLOW FOR MORE EARLY-DAY SUNSHINE THAT EARLIER PLANNED. KICKER SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING LAKE HURON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEIGHTS WILL START TO REBOUND BEHIND IT...THOUGH THAT PROCESS STALLS IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE GLANCES BY EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI. LOW CLOUD MASS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS NE ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL SCRAPE BY THE ST MARYS VALLEY. WILL ADD ISOLATED PM -SHRA FOR THE SAULT DOWN TO DETOUR. AS FOR NE LOWER MI...TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 55-58 RANGE WILL GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...MOSTLY BELOW AN INVERSION AT 650MB. THE ENTIRE CLOUD DEPTH IS WARMER THAN - 5C...SO NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS...WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL HAVE TO BE ENOUGH. NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE...BUT THERE/S ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO STAY WITH THE ONGOING 20 POP IN PART OF NE LOWER. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70F TO THE MID 70S. TONIGHT...TREND TOWARD REBOUNDING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RESUME...AS TROFFING SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE HIGH MIGHT START TO GENERATE SOME -SHRA OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AND PERHAPS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT ANY IMPACT HERE REGARDING CLOUD COVER WILL WAIT TIL LATER. INSTEAD...WE WILL SEE DIURNAL CU MOSTLY FIZZLE OUT QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL MID-CLOUD COULD LINGER IN EASTERN SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS WILL DROP MAINLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. A FEW UPPER 40S MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING YET. NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH NOAM CONFIGURATION REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED HEADING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN ANYTHING BUT STATUS QUO. INITIAL COLD CORE ANOMALIES RAPIDLY MODERATE AND PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY EXCEEDING SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES SQUARELY CENTERED WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF NORTHERN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE. SUCH AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS OFTEN RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN POTENTIAL...AND THIS ONE APPEARS NO DIFFERENT WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY STORM INTENSITY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED. DETAILS: WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES. OVERHEAD AIRMASS IS A DRY ONE INITIALLY...LEADING TO A RATHER QUIET MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LAKES STARTS TO INTRODUCE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE FORCING IS NOT GREAT...SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SIMPLE GRADIENT ALONG APPROACHING H8-H7 THETA-E AXIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DEFINITELY NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT OF RAIN...BUT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES RIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING... FORCED CONVERGENCE IS LOST AS NOSE OF H85 JET PUSHES EAST. AXIS OF RICHEST THETA-E AIR SETTLES OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CORRIDOR OF AOA 1.50 PWATS TIED TO IT. FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT...ITSELF TIED TO MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EARLY PERUSAL OF INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST SOME DECENT CAPE DEVELOPMENT JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...UPWARD OF 1K-2K MU CAPE IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UPPER JET SUPPORT...AND BEST MID LEVEL DYNAMICS DO LOOK TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL FIRE...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS NICE MID LEVEL JET STREAK OVERTOPS LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY CORE...ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY EVENING. HINTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN HEADING INTO AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS NORTHERN EXTENT OF UPSTREAM RIDGE FOLDS OVER AND INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY. RATHER AGGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS AS WHOLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH. STILL PLENTY OF TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO PASSING WAVES AND THEIR ATTENDANT FRONTAL FEATURES. A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS WITH THESE PATTERN SHIFTS...WHICH INTRODUCES SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS A TOUCH HIGHER WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN ANTICIPATED PATTERN...SEE LITTLE REASON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH OR EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION...BEHIND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING THE EASTERN LAKES. PATCHY STRATUS HAS FORMED IN EASTERN UPPER...N CENTRAL AND NE LOWER MI. THIS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS THRU 12Z. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD TODAY AT APN/PLN AS A CU FIELD FIRES. THIS WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS TODAY. NW TO N WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING THE EASTERN LAKES WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND REMAIN LIGHTER INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ NEAR TERM...JAZ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...JAZ MARINE...JAZ  FXUS63 KAPX 110756 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 356 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 ...A FEW MORE SHOWERS TODAY... UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COURTESY OF A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE CHILLY AIR WILL BE SOME PERIODIC SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND AMPLE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL WATER SPOUTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT PER WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE CHILLY 40S. && .SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST CHALLENGE: LAKE EFFECT RAIN POTENTIAL...WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL REALIZE A 15-20C TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE LAKES. THIS...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CREATE LAKE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON WITH A NORTHERN WIND REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUD DEPTHS OF AROUND 8KFT WITH THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND 850MB WINDS OF ONLY ABOUT 15KTS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WATERSPOUTS. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO DECREASE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS CLOUD DEPTHS DECREASE TO ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DECREASED CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND LASTING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 60S SATURDAY...BUT MODERATE TO THE LOW 70S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SUNDAY...DROPPING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING...BUT BACK TO THE 50S MONDAY. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS. GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PRODUCING CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TVC/MBL. ON FRIDAY...COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT AND HEATING OF THE DAY INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. BUT LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO IMPACT TVC/MBL. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY THANKS TO AN AUTUMN LIKE AIRMASS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN SHORT TERM...TJL LONG TERM...TJL AVIATION...ADAM MARINE...SULLIVAN  FXUS63 KAPX 111055 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 655 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OF LAKE HURON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN...NORTHERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO NORTHERN MI. MASS OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN NORTH OF SUPERIOR...AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS SEEN THERE AS WELL. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME PATCHY STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...NOT TOO EXTENSIVE. CLOUD TRENDS AND MARGINAL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. TODAY...LOOKS LIKE WILL NEED TO ALLOW FOR MORE EARLY-DAY SUNSHINE THAT EARLIER PLANNED. KICKER SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING LAKE HURON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEIGHTS WILL START TO REBOUND BEHIND IT...THOUGH THAT PROCESS STALLS IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE GLANCES BY EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI. LOW CLOUD MASS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS NE ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL SCRAPE BY THE ST MARYS VALLEY. WILL ADD ISOLATED PM -SHRA FOR THE SAULT DOWN TO DETOUR. AS FOR NE LOWER MI...TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 55-58 RANGE WILL GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...MOSTLY BELOW AN INVERSION AT 650MB. THE ENTIRE CLOUD DEPTH IS WARMER THAN - 5C...SO NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS...WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL HAVE TO BE ENOUGH. NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE...BUT THERE/S ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO STAY WITH THE ONGOING 20 POP IN PART OF NE LOWER. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70F TO THE MID 70S. TONIGHT...TREND TOWARD REBOUNDING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RESUME...AS TROFFING SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE HIGH MIGHT START TO GENERATE SOME -SHRA OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AND PERHAPS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT ANY IMPACT HERE REGARDING CLOUD COVER WILL WAIT TIL LATER. INSTEAD...WE WILL SEE DIURNAL CU MOSTLY FIZZLE OUT QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL MID-CLOUD COULD LINGER IN EASTERN SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS WILL DROP MAINLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. A FEW UPPER 40S MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING YET. NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH NOAM CONFIGURATION REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED HEADING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN ANYTHING BUT STATUS QUO. INITIAL COLD CORE ANOMALIES RAPIDLY MODERATE AND PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY EXCEEDING SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES SQUARELY CENTERED WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF NORTHERN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE. SUCH AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS OFTEN RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN POTENTIAL...AND THIS ONE APPEARS NO DIFFERENT WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY STORM INTENSITY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED. DETAILS: WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES. OVERHEAD AIRMASS IS A DRY ONE INITIALLY...LEADING TO A RATHER QUIET MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LAKES STARTS TO INTRODUCE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE FORCING IS NOT GREAT...SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SIMPLE GRADIENT ALONG APPROACHING H8-H7 THETA-E AXIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DEFINITELY NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT OF RAIN...BUT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES RIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING... FORCED CONVERGENCE IS LOST AS NOSE OF H85 JET PUSHES EAST. AXIS OF RICHEST THETA-E AIR SETTLES OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CORRIDOR OF AOA 1.50 PWATS TIED TO IT. FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT...ITSELF TIED TO MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EARLY PERUSAL OF INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST SOME DECENT CAPE DEVELOPMENT JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...UPWARD OF 1K-2K MU CAPE IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UPPER JET SUPPORT...AND BEST MID LEVEL DYNAMICS DO LOOK TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL FIRE...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS NICE MID LEVEL JET STREAK OVERTOPS LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY CORE...ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY EVENING. HINTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN HEADING INTO AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS NORTHERN EXTENT OF UPSTREAM RIDGE FOLDS OVER AND INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY. RATHER AGGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS AS WHOLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH. STILL PLENTY OF TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO PASSING WAVES AND THEIR ATTENDANT FRONTAL FEATURES. A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS WITH THESE PATTERN SHIFTS...WHICH INTRODUCES SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS A TOUCH HIGHER WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN ANTICIPATED PATTERN...SEE LITTLE REASON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH OR EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TODAY PLN/APN AND PERHAPS TVC. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION...BEHIND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. PATCHY STRATUS HAS FORMED IN NORTHERN MI...AND LOWER CIGS HAVE BEEN TEMPO-ED INTO ALL TAFS BUT PLN EARLY ON. A LARGER MASS OF LOW CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AT MIDDAY TO PLN/APN AND PERHAPS TVC. CIGS WILL LIFT AS WE MOVE THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS VFR. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS TODAY. NW TO N WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING THE EASTERN LAKES WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND REMAIN LIGHTER INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ NEAR TERM...JAZ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...JAZ MARINE...JAZ  FXUS63 KAPX 111503 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1103 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 CAA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SECONDARY WAVE MAKES ITS WAY SE THRU UPPER MICHIGAN AND NRN WISCONSIN. LATEST IR AND VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE... MESOSCALE PROCESSES ARE GEARING UP AS SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS STEADILY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER LATEST KMQT BASE REF 88D LOOP. CLOSER TO HOME...ONLY A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG OUR LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS FROM LEELANAU COUNTY TO MANISTEE COUNTY. 850 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... COOLING FROM AROUND +5 C THIS MORNING TO +1 C BY EVENING. CAA COMBINED WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE/FRONT AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL TARGET MAINLY FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN AS OUTLINED ABOVE AND TO A LESSOR EXTEND OUR LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS UNDER THE DIRECTION OF NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH ONGOING CAA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 ...A FEW MORE SHOWERS TODAY... UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT COURTESY OF A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE CHILLY AIR WILL BE SOME PERIODIC SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND AMPLE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL WATER SPOUTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT PER WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE CHILLY 40S. && .SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST CHALLENGE: LAKE EFFECT RAIN POTENTIAL...WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WILL REALIZE A 15-20C TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE LAKES. THIS...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CREATE LAKE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON WITH A NORTHERN WIND REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUD DEPTHS OF AROUND 8KFT WITH THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND 850MB WINDS OF ONLY ABOUT 15KTS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WATERSPOUTS. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO DECREASE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS CLOUD DEPTHS DECREASE TO ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DECREASED CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND LASTING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 60S SATURDAY...BUT MODERATE TO THE LOW 70S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SUNDAY...DROPPING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING...BUT BACK TO THE 50S MONDAY. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS. GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...PRODUCING CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT AND HEATING OF THE DAY INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO IMPACT TVC/MBL AND MAYBE EVEN APN. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY THANKS TO AN AUTUMN LIKE AIRMASS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MLR NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN SHORT TERM...TJL LONG TERM...TJL AVIATION...SULLIVAN MARINE...SULLIVAN  FXUS63 KAPX 111804 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 204 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED IN NE LOWER, WITH THEM REMAINING SOUTH OF M-32. SOME HAVE FIRED AS FAR WEST AS US-131, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS HAVE FIRED MAINLY BETWEEN I-75 AND M-33. THE SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE SE INTO SAGINAW BAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE RAP12/NAM12, THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-ISH, AND THEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z, IF NOT SOONER. BASED ON THE RADAR, THE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE DIMINISHING SOONER. SO MAY BE PULLING THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT PACKAGE IS SENT OUT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY AND WIND TODAY AS THE MOISTURE FRONT THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AM EXPECTING THE DIURNAL CU TO FORM OVER THE REGION, AS WELL AS THE STRATO CU FROM THE <10C 850 MB AIR THAT IS ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF N MICHIGAN. WINDS OVER THE LAKES NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED FOR SOME LOCAL EFFECTS THROUGH THE DAY. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OF LAKE HURON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN...NORTHERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO NORTHERN MI. MASS OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN NORTH OF SUPERIOR...AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS SEEN THERE AS WELL. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME PATCHY STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...NOT TOO EXTENSIVE. CLOUD TRENDS AND MARGINAL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. TODAY...LOOKS LIKE WILL NEED TO ALLOW FOR MORE EARLY-DAY SUNSHINE THAT EARLIER PLANNED. KICKER SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING LAKE HURON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEIGHTS WILL START TO REBOUND BEHIND IT...THOUGH THAT PROCESS STALLS IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE GLANCES BY EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI. LOW CLOUD MASS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS NE ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL SCRAPE BY THE ST MARYS VALLEY. WILL ADD ISOLATED PM -SHRA FOR THE SAULT DOWN TO DETOUR. AS FOR NE LOWER MI...TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 55-58 RANGE WILL GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...MOSTLY BELOW AN INVERSION AT 650MB. THE ENTIRE CLOUD DEPTH IS WARMER THAN - 5C...SO NO ICE IN THE CLOUDS...WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL HAVE TO BE ENOUGH. NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE...BUT THERE/S ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO STAY WITH THE ONGOING 20 POP IN PART OF NE LOWER. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70F TO THE MID 70S. TONIGHT...TREND TOWARD REBOUNDING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RESUME...AS TROFFING SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD QUEBEC AND UPSTATE NY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE HIGH MIGHT START TO GENERATE SOME -SHRA OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AND PERHAPS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT ANY IMPACT HERE REGARDING CLOUD COVER WILL WAIT TIL LATER. INSTEAD...WE WILL SEE DIURNAL CU MOSTLY FIZZLE OUT QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL MID-CLOUD COULD LINGER IN EASTERN SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECOUPLING...MIN TEMPS WILL DROP MAINLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. A FEW UPPER 40S MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING YET. NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH NOAM CONFIGURATION REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED HEADING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN ANYTHING BUT STATUS QUO. INITIAL COLD CORE ANOMALIES RAPIDLY MODERATE AND PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY EXCEEDING SPECIFIC NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES SQUARELY CENTERED WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF NORTHERN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE. SUCH AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADJUSTMENTS OFTEN RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RAIN POTENTIAL...AND THIS ONE APPEARS NO DIFFERENT WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING BY LATER WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY STORM INTENSITY WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED. DETAILS: WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES. OVERHEAD AIRMASS IS A DRY ONE INITIALLY...LEADING TO A RATHER QUIET MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LAKES STARTS TO INTRODUCE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE FORCING IS NOT GREAT...SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SIMPLE GRADIENT ALONG APPROACHING H8-H7 THETA-E AXIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DEFINITELY NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT OF RAIN...BUT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES RIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING... FORCED CONVERGENCE IS LOST AS NOSE OF H85 JET PUSHES EAST. AXIS OF RICHEST THETA-E AIR SETTLES OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CORRIDOR OF AOA 1.50 PWATS TIED TO IT. FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT...ITSELF TIED TO MID LEVEL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EARLY PERUSAL OF INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST SOME DECENT CAPE DEVELOPMENT JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...UPWARD OF 1K-2K MU CAPE IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UPPER JET SUPPORT...AND BEST MID LEVEL DYNAMICS DO LOOK TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...GOTTA BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL FIRE...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS NICE MID LEVEL JET STREAK OVERTOPS LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY CORE...ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY EVENING. HINTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. && .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN HEADING INTO AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS NORTHERN EXTENT OF UPSTREAM RIDGE FOLDS OVER AND INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY. RATHER AGGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS AS WHOLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH. STILL PLENTY OF TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO PASSING WAVES AND THEIR ATTENDANT FRONTAL FEATURES. A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS WITH THESE PATTERN SHIFTS...WHICH INTRODUCES SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS A TOUCH HIGHER WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN ANTICIPATED PATTERN...SEE LITTLE REASON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH OR EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 LOOKS LIKE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NE LOWER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF APN, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN MOISTURE SLUG THAT IS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH, IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE BACK EDGE IS IN E UPPER AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM OBS AND WHAT IS GOING ON AT EACH AIRPORT, WILL CONTINUE THE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGINNING TO CLEAR AS WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING, AND THEN THE BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SLUG LEAVES LATER IN THE EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS TODAY. NW TO N WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT DEPARTING THE EASTERN LAKES WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND REMAIN LIGHTER INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JSL NEAR TERM...JAZ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...JSL MARINE...JAZ  FXUS63 KAPX 111905 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 SECONDARY WAVE AND SURFACE RESPONSE HAVE REACHED THE TIP OF THE MITT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LENDING SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO ONGOING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF FAR NRN AND NW LWR MICHIGAN. BKN BUT FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IS MAKING ITS WAY SE INTO FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN. A LOOK AT UPSTREAM KMQT BAS REF IMAGES SHOWS PRECIP HAS REVERTED BACK TO A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT PATTERN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WITH BAND ORGANIZATION DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL PROCESSES AS IS TYPICAL DURING PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY. 850 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...COOLING TO +1 C SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. CAA COMBINED WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE/FRONT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY THRU SUNSET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS THRU THIS EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WILL TARGET MAINLY FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN UNDER THE DIRECTION OF N/NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. ONCE THE WAVE/FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY HAS WANED AFTER SUNSET...SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LOCATIONS NOT TARGETED BY N/NW FLOW. ONGOING CAA WILL LEND TO A RATHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. && .SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. LINGERING WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL ON LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ON SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. POCKET OF VERY COOL AIR ALOFT /H8 TEMPS 3-4C/ ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY BEING PUSHED EAST WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO END THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR STRATO-CU STILL LIKELY...NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH AS FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE. A VERY MARGINAL WATERSPOUT DAY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MUCH LOWER THAN FRIDAY RESULTING IN RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS. DESPITE LESS FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...WILL STILL INCLUDE A WATERSPOUT MENTION IN THE MARINE FORECASTS. ROBUST DELTA T/S OF 15+ DEGC SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON WITH PREVAILING N-NW FLOW. A VERY COOL DAY /BY MID-SEPTEMBER STANDARDS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING A WEAK VORT DAMPENING OUT AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MANY AREAS...WITH SOME TYPICAL COLDER INTERIOR AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING PATCHY FROST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY-MONDAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. .MARINE...WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL INTO SATURDAY ON LAKE MICHIGAN /SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE/. WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY. A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY LAKE MICHIGAN. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 THINGS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH A FEW DAYS OF GOOD RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND...THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO STRONG CAA AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIMINISH TO MVFR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR NEARSHORE AREAS... MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE OF NW LWR MICHIGAN. WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...KEYSOR LONG TERM...ALM AVIATION...MLR MARINE...MLR  FXUS63 KAPX 150542 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 142 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 SRN TIP OF A WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO RIDE THRU OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING...SPREADING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS OVER ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. A FEW HITS OF LIGHTNING WERE DETECTED ALONG THE NRN SHORE OF LAKES SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING EVEN CLOSE TO THUNDER HAS OCCURRED IN MICHIGAN. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE ATTM...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...ONLY TO BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR MUCH OF OUR NRN CWA. && .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER THE SUN SETS AND DIURNAL PROCESSES CEASE...LAKE CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...AS 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 4C. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR ALL OF EASTERN UPPER AND MAINLY NORTH OF M-32 OVER NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DIP A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST OVER THE NORMAL COLDER LOW LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER IF CLOUD COVER TAKES A BIT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. && .SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL...LOW. FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE YEAR POSSIBLE FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A WAVE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING COLDER AND COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH BOUTS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/PCPN CHANCES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY AND YET ANOTHER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS DELTA T/S INCREASE TO 20C+. COMBINED WITH 80%+ MEAN RH IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AND NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. LIQUID TO START THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT MELTING LAYERS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 1.5K OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MANY PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN /AWAY FROM THE WARMER LAKES/. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED /LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER TERRAIN?/ AS AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING COMBINED WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. WATERSPOUTS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ON THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH LAKE GENERATED CLOUD DEPTHS OF 5-7K WITH DELTA T/S OF 20C+. A VERY CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE MAKING IT FEEL SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. THE COMBO OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL BRING DOWN SOME LEAVES AND MAY VERY WELL SIGNAL THE END TO THE PEAK LEAF VIEWING SEASON FOR MANY INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW COULD INITIALLY HELP TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AS H8 TEMPS ARE IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE...WITH THINGS CLEARING OUT LATER SUNDAY. HEIGHT RISES WILL AGAIN WORK INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...POSSIBLY A TOUCH ABOVE IN THE STRONG WAA AHEAD OF AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT TUE/WED. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS EARLY IN THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY A DEEPENING SFC LOW ON IT/S HEELS. A LOT OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE H5 TROUGH THAT WILL BE HELPING TO DEEPEN IT. THIS TROUGH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL KEEP POPS GOING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A PRETTY ACTIVE FLOW ALOFT WITHIN UPPER TROUGHING...AS A FEW SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OFF THE LAKES. TOO FEW TO MENTION ANY CHANCE IN THE TAFS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SUNNY THAN NOT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE NW...WITH SOME ADDED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR A VCSH MENTION. ANOTHER WAVE/TROUGH ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DECENT ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE ADDED IN THE NEXT SET OF AVIATION FORECASTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BEGIN THURSDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY AS OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR FUNNELS IN ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MLR NEAR TERM...TJL SHORT TERM...KEYSOR LONG TERM...MAYHEW AVIATION...DICKSON MARINE...TJL  FXUS63 KAPX 150745 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 345 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS DOMINANT ACROSS CANADA AND THE NE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CONTINUAL TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES THAT ROLL ACROSS THE REGION. ONE SUCH WAVE WENT THROUGH YESTERDAY EVENING...WITH SOME BACKING FLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS HAS DESTROYED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...AND SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED. UPSTREAM...THERE IS THE NEXT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WORKING TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR...AND YET ANOTHER RIGHT ON IT'S HEELS IN MANITOBA. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WERE SEEN IN THIS VICINITY. NOT TO BE IGNORED IS YET ANOTHER WAVE NW OF THERE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MAINLY 40S...COLDEST IN THOSE LOW LYING PROTECTED FROM THE WIND AREAS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER: THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ON THE EDGE OF ADVANCING STEEPER LAPSE RATES...WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING ON THE RISE WITH A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AIDED BY THE LAKES. DON'T THINK THUNDER WILL BE A CHANCE WITH THIS WAVE...BUT THE SECOND WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND STEEPEST OF LAPSE RATES REACHING AN IMPRESSIVE 8.5 TO NEARLY 9C/KM. SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH DROPPING H8 TEMPS WILL BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR...BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF SOME HIGH BASED CU. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH LOW WET- BULB HEIGHTS. THE FINAL WAVE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT WITH EVEN COLDER H8 AIR OF -2C TO -5C. GOTTA EXPECT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ENHANCED BY THE LAKES GET GOING LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE...A LULL IN THE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND SOME AMOUNT OF DRYING. FINALLY...WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS VERY LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE INDUCED CLOUD DEPTHS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE AT 7KFT AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DELTA T'S. THERE IS AN EXPECTED TROUGH AXIS FOR WHICH THESE FOCUS ON. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...HERE COMES THE COLD AIR... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8 C RANGE) LEADING TO PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY YIELDING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS INLAND. THE WET FLAKES COULD MIX IN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE WAVERING BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR DOWNSTAIRS (BELOW ABOUT 875 MB) BUT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW COULD BRIEFLY WHITEN UP THE GROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...COLD SUNDAY THEN TURNING MILD AGAIN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS QUICKLY SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WARM ADVECTION MONDAY BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO DOUBT THAT WE CAN GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH). SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE. A MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN OR LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THE SHOWER CHANCES. SO AFTER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A PRETTY ACTIVE FLOW ALOFT WITHIN UPPER TROUGHING...AS A FEW SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OFF THE LAKES. TOO FEW TO MENTION ANY CHANCE IN THE TAFS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SUNNY THAN NOT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE NW...WITH SOME ADDED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR A VCSH MENTION. ANOTHER WAVE/TROUGH ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DECENT ENOUGH FORCING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE ADDED IN THE NEXT SET OF AVIATION FORECASTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...MORE CHOPPY WAVES AND GUSTY ADVISORY WINDS... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...TO RESULT IN SEVERAL NEEDED ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY WAVES AND GUSTS TO 25-30KTS OUT OF THE WEST AND NW. ALSO...PERIODS OF LAKE AIDED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE. THUS...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT GUSTY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ NEAR TERM...DICKSON SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN LONG TERM...SULLIVAN AVIATION...DICKSON MARINE...DICKSON  FXUS63 KAPX 151419 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1019 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS THROUGH FROM THE FIRST 500 MB SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM, IS THE CONCERN AS THE NEXT WAVE IN W UPPER/LAKE SUPERIOR, LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8C/KM. COUPLING THAT WITH THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON, WILL EXPECT THAT THUNDER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. ALSO, WITH CLOUD DEPTHS OF ABOUT 20,000FT, AND THE DELTA TS AROUND 13C, WATERSPOUTS ARE A DECENT POSSIBILITY IF WE GET A VIGOROUS SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS DOMINANT ACROSS CANADA AND THE NE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CONTINUAL TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES THAT ROLL ACROSS THE REGION. ONE SUCH WAVE WENT THROUGH YESTERDAY EVENING...WITH SOME BACKING FLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS HAS DESTROYED THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...AND SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED. UPSTREAM...THERE IS THE NEXT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WORKING TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR...AND YET ANOTHER RIGHT ON IT'S HEELS IN MANITOBA. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WERE SEEN IN THIS VICINITY. NOT TO BE IGNORED IS YET ANOTHER WAVE NW OF THERE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MAINLY 40S...COLDEST IN THOSE LOW LYING PROTECTED FROM THE WIND AREAS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER: THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ON THE EDGE OF ADVANCING STEEPER LAPSE RATES...WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING ON THE RISE WITH A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AIDED BY THE LAKES. DON'T THINK THUNDER WILL BE A CHANCE WITH THIS WAVE...BUT THE SECOND WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND STEEPEST OF LAPSE RATES REACHING AN IMPRESSIVE 8.5 TO NEARLY 9C/KM. SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH DROPPING H8 TEMPS WILL BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR...BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF SOME HIGH BASED CU. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH LOW WET- BULB HEIGHTS. THE FINAL WAVE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT WITH EVEN COLDER H8 AIR OF -2C TO -5C. GOTTA EXPECT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ENHANCED BY THE LAKES GET GOING LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE...A LULL IN THE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND SOME AMOUNT OF DRYING. FINALLY...WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS VERY LATE TONIGHT WITH LAKE INDUCED CLOUD DEPTHS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE AT 7KFT AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DELTA T'S. THERE IS AN EXPECTED TROUGH AXIS FOR WHICH THESE FOCUS ON. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...HERE COMES THE COLD AIR... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -8 C RANGE) LEADING TO PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY YIELDING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS INLAND. THE WET FLAKES COULD MIX IN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE WAVERING BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR DOWNSTAIRS (BELOW ABOUT 875 MB) BUT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW COULD BRIEFLY WHITEN UP THE GROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...COLD SUNDAY THEN TURNING MILD AGAIN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS QUICKLY SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF WARM ADVECTION MONDAY BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO DOUBT THAT WE CAN GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH). SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE. A MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN OR LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THE SHOWER CHANCES. SO AFTER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 A PRETTY ACTIVE FLOW ALOFT WITHIN UPPER TROUGHING...AS A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN. THE FIRST IS ARRIVING NOW AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CROSS THE AIRPORTS...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FAIRLY DRY. SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SUNNY THAN NOT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE/COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE NW. SOME BETTER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR A VCSH MENTION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING WITH THIS FRONT/SHOWERS BUT DON'T THINK THE CHANCE IS ALL THAT GREAT TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS. THE FINAL WAVE/TROUGH ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...MORE CHOPPY WAVES AND GUSTY ADVISORY WINDS... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...TO RESULT IN SEVERAL NEEDED ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY WAVES AND GUSTS TO 25-30KTS OUT OF THE WEST AND NW. ALSO...PERIODS OF LAKE AIDED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE. THUS...IT WILL STILL BE A BIT GUSTY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JSL NEAR TERM...DICKSON SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN LONG TERM...SULLIVAN AVIATION...DICKSON MARINE...DICKSON  FXUS63 KAPX 151926 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 326 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: WATERSPOUTS AND ICE PELLETS IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FORECAST CHALLENGE: WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR WATERSPOUTS OVERNIGHT? OVERVIEW...A VIGOROUS 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND HAS A 7.5-8C/KM AREA OF 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES THAT ARE KICKING OFF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BOTH OVERLAND, AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC, WE HAVE A THE MAIN SFC TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS STATES AT THE MOMENT AS WELL. ON THE RADAR, THERE ARE SCATTERED LINES OF SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH ARE PRODUCING GRAUPEL. SO FAR, ON LAKE SUPERIOR, THERE HAS BEEN ONE REPORT OF A WATERSPOUT, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. TONIGHT...AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING, THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE >7C/KM OVERNIGHT, WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND - 6C OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, AND -8C OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C IN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, AND 12C IN LAKE SUPERIOR, WE ACHIEVE THE INSTABILITY FOR A DEEP CLOUD DEPTH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z, AND WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING <40 KTS, WE SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT WATERSPOUT AND ICE PELLETS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKES, AND CLOSER TO 12Z. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH IMPACT POTENTIAL...LOW. FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE YEAR FOR INTERIOR AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT. LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW...DRAWING COLDER INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH BOUTS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/PCPN CHANCES. ONE WAVE FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY LATER THURSDAY...AS DELTA T/S INCREASE TO 20C+. COMBINED WITH 80%+ MEAN RH IN THE H8-H7 LAYER AND NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. LIQUID FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...BUT MELTING LAYER DECREASES TO LESS THAN 1.2K OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MANY PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN /AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE WARMER LAKES/. LIGHT GRASSY SURFACE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS AND EVERYONE ELSE IN THE 40S. WIDESPREAD 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST...PUSHING ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST. QUIETER WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE H8 THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES EAST. WATERSPOUTS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ON THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LAKE GENERATED CLOUD DEPTHS OF 5-7K WITH DELTA T/S OF 20C+. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY COULD DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HELP FORCE SHOWERS. FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THIS IS A DEEPENING LOW THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THIS TRAILING LOW HAS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH IT...AND THE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS IS NOT SURPRISING. YESTERDAY/S THINKING OF THE TROUGH BEING A BIT OVERDONE IS STILL A CONCERN...AND THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE BEEN GETTING LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A BRIEF WARMUP ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 CIGS CURRENTLY, AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY ARE VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. LOOKING UPSTREAM, MAJORITY OF THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND VFR CIGS, AND WILL EXPECT THOSE HERE FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AT 5000 FT WILL COOL TO LESS THAN -5C AT TIMES BY FRIDAY MORNING, SO THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLAKES ALOFT NEAR THE TAF SITES, BUT AT THIS TIME, AT THE SFC FOR THE TAF SITES, ONLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO MELT THE SNOW BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE SFC. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDER/WATERSPOUT THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE DIMINISHING, BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UP IN ALL THE NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE BEST TIME FOR WATERSPOUTS AGAIN, WITH THE PEAK TIME IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AGAIN WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA RANGE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ NEAR TERM...JSL SHORT TERM...KEYSOR LONG TERM...ALM AVIATION...JSL MARINE...JSL  FXUS63 KAPX 100831 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 331 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 IMPACT WEATHER: ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH BLOWING SNOW. SYSTEM SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING AND LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. BECOMING MUCH COLDER. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS: SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED JUST EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE THE DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS IN OHIO AND TRACKING TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE INTO THE LARGER UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT/AXIS OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS VERIFIED BY ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ACROSS NE LOWER. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE LIKELY BEEN IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR THERE...WHILE REFLECTIVITIES HAVE FALLEN OFF TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS NW LOWER...WHOM RESIDES IN THE DOWNWARD BRANCH OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION. THAT SAID...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN COLD ENOUGH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN N/NNW FLOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. THIS FLOW REGIME IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR EMMET/CHEBOYGAN/CHARLEVOIX AREA...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN CHIP/MACK...BUT SYSTEM SNOW IS GETTING THEM DECENTLY. ALL-IN-ALL THE STORM SEEMS TO BE PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED. FINALLY...IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOW...WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING...GUSTING 20+MPH IN MANY LOCALES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE POTENTIALLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTAL/LESSER SNOW IMPACT THERE IS OFFSET BY THE STRONGER WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION: SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NNE INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT....WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR GETS ADVECTED INTO NRN MICHIGAN VIA STRONG/GUSTY...CYCLONICALLY CONVERGING AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM NNW TO W/WNW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF WINDS WILL BE TODAY...WHILE THE SYSTEM SNOW IS PULLING OUT QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO THROW PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS MOST ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN WHILE WINDS ARE STRONG. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS...DESPITE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING AND SNOWFALL INTENSITIES FALLING OFF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS PLUMMET TO 4-4.5 KFT. FOLKS OUTSIDE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF RAPIDLY DEGRADING CONDITIONS GOING IN AND OUT OF EACH BAND OF SNOW. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE DAY 1-3 INCHES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...ULTIMATELY LANDING IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS GET A TOUCH BETTER FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING INTO TONIGHT. DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...WORKS IT'S WAY DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/COLDER AIR ALOFT...ALLOWS INVERSION HEIGHTS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 6KFT. WE STILL HAVE A LITTLE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP IN NW FLOW THIS EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE...BUT IT'S NOT UNTIL OVERNIGHT THAT CONDITIONS ARE BEST CONCERNING MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHT. LOSS OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP THROUGH OVERNIGHT THOUGH...THE ADVECTION OF DRIER NEAR SFC AIR AND STILL BACKING WINDS FANNING SNOWS OUT WILL NEGATE THINGS A BIT. CAN SEE ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELTS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ACROSS NE LOWER...BUT DO EXPECT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT TO OCCASIONALLY REACH ALL THE WAY TO LAKE HURON. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING ALL AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF DROPPING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY ACROSS NE LOWER BY MID MORNING AS THE SYSTEM SNOW EXITS. LESS TIME IN THE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS THROUGH TODAY...PLUS THE FAIRLY WET SNOWS THAT OCCURRED WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME BLOWING AROUND THERE AS WELL. WILL STILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHIP/MACK COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT'S REALLY JUST TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE AREA AROUND PARADISE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: LAKE EFFECT REGIME THROUGH THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. FORECAST CHALLENGE: WIND FLOW PATTERNS CHANGING SO THAT THE LES IS NOT IN ONE SPOT THROUGH THE PERIODS. (1/11)MONDAY...WE QUICKLY GO FROM WNW FLOW TO W BY 18Z AND SOUTHWEST BY 00Z. THE MORNING WILL 850 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE BETWEEN -15C AND -20C THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THE 850-700 MB RH FIELD IN NW LOWER LOOKS LIKE IT DRIES OUT SOME THROUGH THE DAY. I HAVEN'T QUANTIFIED THE AMOUNT IT DRIES OUT, AS THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT. THE HIRES ARW MODEL LOOKS TO SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA THAT THE MOISTURE GETS NO LOWER THAN 60% THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE THE GFS AND NAM GO TO LESS THAN 50% FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE MORNING (BEFORE 18Z), AND THE WIND SHIFT BEING THE LEAST AMOUNT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. THEN THERE WILL BE SOME BAND CONVERGENCE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS COME AROUND TO SW AND THEN BY 00Z, THE SW BANDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS IS, I THINK, A LITTLE FAST WITH THE SFC TROUGH SPEEDING OUT AHEAD, AND THE WIND TRANSITION BY 06Z BACK TO THE WEST. THINK THAT THERE COULD BE A PROLONGED SW MAYBE EVEN SOME SSW FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY, BUT THE BANDS FAN BACK SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SO OVERNIGHT (06Z TO 12Z) THE WINDS (1000-850 MB LAYER) GO BACK TO A NW OR NNW FLOW. (1/12)TUESDAY...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE WINDS ARE NW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION, 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C(-20C IS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR), AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER OF BETTER THAN 60%. THE WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST FOR ALMOST 12+ HOURS, SO THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH ON A FEW OF THE MODELS IS APPROACHING -25C. WITH THE CLOUD DEPTH BETTER THAN 10000FT AND AN INVERSION HEIGHT OF 8000 FT AT 00Z, OUR CLOUD TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIPE FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION. THAT WOULD CAUSE OUR SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE POSSIBLY MODERATE, RATHER THAN HEAVY(6+"). OF COURSE, THIS COULD BE WRONG, AND IF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT OCCUR ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, BIGGER DENDRITES ARE POSSIBLE AND A HEAVIER SNOW. OF COURSE, THE SNOW WILL STILL COME DOWN PRETTY HARD IN THESE BANDS, AND WILL EXPECT THAT THE VISIBILITY COULD BE DOWN TO NEAR ZERO WITH THE SMALL FLAKE SIZE. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT AGAIN TO THE WNW AND THEN WEST BY 12Z. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS US FROM GETTING INTO HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE SNOW GETS FANNED OUT AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BAND COLLISIONS AND CONVERGENCES THAT WOULD EASILY DROP SOME HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THIS WILL SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT THE 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EVERY DAY OR SO. THIS LEADS TO MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT THAT SATURDAY MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS SOME 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES THE JET A LITTLE NORTH AND ALLOWS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO C FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY, 1/9. SO WILL BE EXPECTING NUMEROUS TIMES OF LAKE EFFECT WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN -12C AND -20C WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW CURRENTLY HERE AND LASTING TO NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR. SNOW RATIOS RANGING FROM AROUND 15:1 ACROSS NW LOWER AND 10:1 NEAR APN. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION VIA INCREASING NW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY...REACHING 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGHOUT TODAY. SOLID IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SNOWFALL DIMINISHES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AT TVC/MBL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES/INTENSITIES FALL OFF THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP VSBYS DOWN DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER. HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...SNOW BANDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...IMPACTING PLN THE MOST WHILE WINDS STAY GUSTY WITH PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW. SNOW INTENSITIES THEN RAMP UP A BIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE WINDS WEAKEN WITH TIME. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THEN INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH TODAY WITH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY QUITE LARGE. NW GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND LAST AS LONG AS THE EARLY EVENING...BUT CONTINUING ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE AREA MOST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE CONTINUING TO BACK AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH/SW MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS START TO GO VARIABLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING...THEN PICK UP IN SPEED TO POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE WANDERING THE ENTIRE TIME...MOST INTENSE LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>036- 041-042. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ322. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321. && $$ NEAR TERM...DICKSON SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...DICKSON MARINE...DICKSON  FXUS63 KAPX 172102 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 402 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. ..THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE CONTINUES TO CHURN... ANOTHER SOMEWHAT SURPRISE FILLED LAKE EFFECT DAY. THE MESOLOW ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN COMBINATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE AGGRAVATE TROUGH HAS POUNDED PORTIONS OF LEELANAU COUNTY AND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TODAY...WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER AND THANKFULLY...THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEHIND SAID TROUGH. CONTINUED EXCELLENT LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS IN PLACE TONIGHT. VERY FAVORABLE THERMAL (DELTA TS IN THE MIDDLE 20S) AND MOISTURE (MEAN 850-700 MB RH 80 TO 90 PERCENT) REGIMES WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACHING VERY IMPRESSIVE 10,000 FEET. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BANDING TO SET UP LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. THE BANDS SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER INLAND FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO WILL ADD MISSAUKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO EXTEND THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. ...A GENERAL TWO INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR UNDER A HALF INCH NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO AROUND SAULT STE MARIE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE TEENS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS THROUGH MONDAY. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BOWLING BALL OF COLD ANOMALIES WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY. THIS...AND A RETURN TO A MORE AGGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS WEEK. STILL AN EXCELLENT SET-UP FOR LAKE SNOWS MONDAY...TARGETING THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS OF BOTH PENINSULAS. THE MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER MONDAY...WITH READINGS FALLING JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: LAKE SNOW EVOLUTION AND SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY. DETAILS: LAKE SNOW GUNS SHOULD BE GOING FULL BORE HEADING INTO MONDAY. LAKE SNOW PARAMETERS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND 10 KFT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS (800+ LAKE CAPE). PER THE USUAL...REAL FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE SNOWS WILL ALIGN ALONG ZONE OF MAX SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE HURON INTO WHITEFISH BAY. BREAKING UP THE BIG WATERS: LAKE SUPERIOR: HAVE SOME REAL CONCERNS ABOUT AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND FOCUSING INTO NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. EVER INCREASING COLD ANOMALIES SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MASSIVE LAKE SUPERIOR RESPONSE...HELPING KEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH WITHIN THE DGZ...EASILY SUPPORTING 1+ INCH SNOW RATES IF THIS BAND MATERIALIZES. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BREAK UP/DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ONTARIO SURFACE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO COME TO AN ABRUPT END MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND RAPID ADVECTION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALL TOLD...ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER...OF COURSE) OF SNOW EXPECTED MONDAY/EARLY MONDAY EVENING IN THE SNOW BELTS. BEST SNOWS LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF THE SOO...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY MORNING DOMINATE BAND. LAKE MICHIGAN: WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS IN A SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED ENVIRONMENT (WNW) EXPECTED MONDAY. PER STREAMLINE WIND ANALYSIS...IT APPEARS LAKE SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING WILL BE LARGELY LOST...LEAVING BEHIND A MUCH SHORTER LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE FETCH TO DO THE JOB. THAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE GIVEN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND DEEP MOISTURE. CAPE/SHEAR NOMOGRAM SUPPORTS DIFFUSE BANDING STRUCTURES AT WORSE...AND NEAR STEADY-STATE WIND DIRECTION MAY PREVENT LITTLE WAVERING OF THESE BANDING STRUCTURES. HALF INCH TO INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES SEEM EASILY ATTAINABLE... SUPPORTING ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE DAY IN THE FAVORED LAKE BELTS. SOUTHWARD PIVOT OF LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING MONDAY EVENING LIKELY TO BRING A TRANSIENT BAND OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE... PERHAPS BRINGING A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG WITH IT...AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. MUCH LIKE EASTERN UPPER...PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS. CONDITIONS STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW LAKE SNOW SHOWERS IN NW-W FLOW REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR AND NON-EXISTENT SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION WILL KEEP INTENSITY LIMITED AND ACCUMULATIONS MINOR. WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN DEAMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME. MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH CONTINUING WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINOR. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THOUGH IT WILL BE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AND MUCH LESS INTENSE THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SYSTEM SNOW IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY. JUST HOW MUCH OF A SOUTHERN PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE CAN MUSTER IS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...AS SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS IT WELL NORTH WITH NO PRECIP FOR US. WILL KEEP BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY FOR NOW...AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS WITH THE CLIPPER IN THE COMING RUNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TVC AND MBL WILL BE AFFECTED THE MOST FOLLOWED BY PLN...WITH APN POSSIBLY GETTING GRAZED AT TIMES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP DOWN TO LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS BUT BE PRIMARILY MVFR AND IFR. APN MAY EVEN STAY MAINLY VFR. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 22 TO 1. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ008-015>017-019>022-025>028-031>033. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MAYHEW AVIATION...SULLIVAN MARINE...SULLIVAN  FXUS63 KAPX 100452 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1152 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 939 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 1006mb low continues to rapidly deepen, just west of the Bruce Peninsula. The low will move northward another hour or two, then take a right turn and lift toward Quebec. A bent-back front extends back across eastern upper MI and toward the Keweenaw. Back edge of the widespread, synoptic snow is progressing ne-ward toward CVX-GLR-OSC. This will continue to push northward for a few more hours, before stalling just shy of the Straits, where the bent-back front is hanging out. That front, and the last (weakening) vestige of synoptic snow, will then kick southward back into and across northern lower MI after 3am. Overall, though, synoptic-scale forcing is past peak. Meanwhile, lake effect snow showers have quickly developed over nw lower MI, behind the synoptic snow. Not expected much in the accums with this activity initially. However, that will change (briefly) toward morning when the bent-back front comes south and we switch back to lake enhancement. Best snow amounts overnight will be near and north of a PLN-APN line, with 1-3" of additional accums, perhaps 2-4" in southeast Chippewa Co. Isolated locales of nw lower MI will be around an inch. Windier conditions have been returning to the region this evening, especially south of the bent-back front. That contributes to some low-end blowing/drifting snow concerns, limited by the relatively small amount of snow on the ground. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 ...Heavier snow through tonight transitioning to lake effect... High Impact Weather Potential: A period of heavier snowfall and cooling temperatures will lead to travel issues tonight. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals our digging short-wave impulse/closing mid level trough becoming negatively tilted and digging across Wisconsin with resulting upper diffluence evident over upper Michigan per water vapor imagery. Main upper jet streak dynamics around the base of the trough have moved off to the eastern lakes region. However, surface cyclogenesis continues ahead of the wave across Lake Erie with inverted trough axis stretching up through northern lower Michigan into central upper Michigan. Have had a noticeable uptick in precip rates across the CWA in the last hour or two right along and ahead of the surface trough axis and possibly aided by trowal feature beginning to nose up through Lake Huron into northern Michigan. But, temperatures at or above freezing have and continue to hamper SLRs and accumulating snow. Primary Forecast Concerns: Snowfall and headlines tonight. Strong short-wave impulse continues to slide through lower Michigan tonight as attending surface low lifts up across Lake Huron and into Canada by Saturday morning. Nicely defined theta-e axis/trowal feature still expected to wrap up through lower Michigan into the tip of the mitt/straits/eastern U.P. this evening before pivoting back down through lower Michigan later tonight. Combined with strong low level convergence with the trough should focus heavier precip up through NE lower Michigan and into the tip of the mitt/straits for this evening before the trough eventually swings back down through northern lower Michigan overnight. And with cooling temperatures, I still think some decent snow accumulations are likely tonight particularly along and north of M-32 into the straits and parts of eastern upper Michigan. Further south, noticeable dry slot and back edge to the precip will pivot into the southern half of the CWA this evening, and will give a bit of a lull for several hours. But there will be another burst of snowfall with the trough sliding back through northern lower Michigan late tonight, followed by lake effect snow showers taking shape into NW lower Michigan toward morning. Plan is to keep all headlines intact as is for now with highest storm total accumulations still focused through the tip of the mitt and eastern upper Michigan. Considered trimming the south of M-72/east of I-75 counties a little early. But with the recent uptick in snowfall/lowered visibilities and temps eventually falling back below freezing, I'll let it ride through 00Z as planned. && .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 High Impact Weather Potential: Various chances for accumulating snow through Monday. Diminishing gale force winds on the Great Lakes Saturday. Pattern Synopsis: Well-defined trough axis aloft is expected to be situated to our east by early Saturday morning with broad cyclonic flow on the backside of today/tonight's departing system. Low-mid level cold air advection will be the rule through mid-afternoon Saturday before winds gradually back more southwesterly and weak warm air advection takes over ahead of a weakly developing area of low pressure across the northern plains. This system is expected to trek across northern Lake Superior into southern Canada late this weekend into the start of next week dragging a weak cold front across northern Michigan on Monday. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: PoPs/snow amounts through the forecast period. Weak cold air advection is expected to continue across northern Michigan Saturday morning as cold air filters in on the back side of today's departing system...evident by H8 temps progged to fall to roughly -11 C by 12z/Saturday. Plenty of over-lake instability with delta Ts pushing 20 C and lingering wrap around moisture should yield continued lake effect snow showers across parts of northern Michigan. Predominantly NNW flow Saturday morning should focus the more numerous snow showers across the GTV Bay region and perhaps clipping portions of western Chip/Mack, although lighter/less frequent snow showers still expected elsewhere across northwest lower and eastern upper. Gusty NNW winds 20-30 mph Saturday morning may lead to some restricted visibility in spots due to blowing snow and expected small flake size in falling snow. Winds gradually diminish and back more westerly Saturday afternoon and eventually west-southwesterly Saturday night, all coinciding with weak warm air advection attendant to low pressure developing across the northern plains and sprawling high pressure sliding through the Ohio Valley, bringing much drier air briefly into the region. As a result, lake effect precip is expected to diminish throughout the day while gradually transitioning to the more typical westerly flow locales. Additional accumulation through Saturday generally on the order of an inch or less west of I-75... highest west of US-131 near Grand Traverse Bay to MBL. Increasing deep layer moisture across the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday tied to strengthening warm air advection is expected to lead to developing light isentropically driven snow showers across the northern half of the forecast area with southwest flow lake enhancement across parts of Mack/Chip counties. This area of eastern upper likely to be the center of greatest impact during much of the day Sunday with potentially heavy snow falling in the steadiest lake effect bands as forecast soundings suggest sufficient moisture through the column, virtually no inversion and omega pegged directly in a 5kft deep DGZ. Expecting several inches of new snow, primarily west of I-75 from the bridge to the Sault and perhaps another winter wx headline being hoisted once our ongoing advisories expire. Low-level winds gradually veer more westerly Sunday night and eventually west-northwesterly during the day Monday, reorienting the focus for scattered lake effect snow shower activity across parts of northwest lower and northern Chippewa County...perhaps briefly synoptically supported/enhanced by a cold front expected to cross from northwest to southeast across northern Michigan Monday morning. In terms of accumulation during this time frame, perhaps an inch or two where the most persistent snow showers fall; otherwise, not a whole lot of impact outside of that. Temperatures fairly steady Saturday through Monday with high temps in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows ranging from the teens in the coolest spots to the low-mid 20s elsewhere. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 High Impact Weather Potential: Occasional accumulating snow chances through the middle of next week. Initial focus revolves around an area of low pressure sliding from the southeastern states through the Mid-Atlantic Monday night - Tuesday, which latest trends continue suggest should keep much of the potentially widespread impactful weather to the south and east of northern Michigan. However, this will draw in more cold air across the western Great Lakes leading to continued west/northwest flow lake effect across portions of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan through the middle of next week...perhaps synoptically enhanced at various times from several perturbations trekking through the larger parent troughing overhead. High temperatures through the period averaging 10-15 degrees below mid- November normals, which range roughly from 43 F at ANJ/GLR to 45 at APN and 47 at TVC. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1152 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 Snow continues tonight APN/PLN, some snow showers TVC/MBL. Windy. Low pressure over Georgian Bay will accelerate ne, away from MI. Leftover snow will linger at APN/PLN, waning toward morning, with IFR conditions. Lake effect snow showers elsewhere will produce variable conditions, with MVFR probably being most common. Gusty nw winds developing, windiest at MBL. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 Gusty WNW-NW winds develop tonight and persist through Saturday with gale force wind gusts a good bet for all nearshore areas. Winds diminish through the day Saturday into Saturday night with another lull anticipated. Some gustiness is again anticipated for Sunday although winds and waves may remain just below headline criteria. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for MIZ008- 015>027-031-032. LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until noon EST Saturday for MIZ026-031. LH...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345. GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ348-349. GALE WARNING from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ347. LM...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Saturday for LMZ341. GALE WARNING until 10 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...BA SHORT TERM...MG LONG TERM...MG AVIATION...JZ MARINE...BA