FXUS61 KALY 222332 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 732 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG IT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND USHERING A LESS HUMID AIR MASS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 732 PM EDT...THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT/FORCING. ALSO...ENERGY MOVING INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO AROUND 2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS INDICATES A 25 TO 35 KNOTS 850 MB WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE NAM AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THIS. THIS HELP EXPLAINS THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS. ALSO IT APPEARS THE GFS IS HAVING CONVECTION FEEDBACK ISSUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION. SOME RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ALREADY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SW CORNER OF HERKIMER COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL NY AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY LIFT NE ACROSS OUR AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF ANY OF THE HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...MORE FLS STATEMENTS COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AND NO FFA APPEARS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IT WILL BE HUMID AND WARM TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP MOVING THROUGH. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING...PLACING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND USHERING IN A LESS HUMID DRIER AIRMASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH POPS DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UP TO HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND STORMS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER LESS HUMID AIRMASS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GENTLE SLOPES OF THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERNS IN THE LATEST 12Z MODELS WITH OUR REGION JUST UPSTREAM OF A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN INDICATES LARGE AREA OF SURFACE DIVERGENCE MAKING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS THUR-SAT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN EXTENDING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALTHOUGH TIMING AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY IN SYNC...SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE REGION. WITH A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE AXIS...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AS THIS FRONT PASSES. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS BY LATER THIS EVENING...AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW HEAVIER BURSTS AROUND...BUT TIMING/DURATION OF THIS IS STILL UNKNOWN. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WITHIN THESE HEAVIER BUSTS...BUT WILL NOT ADDRESS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITH A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. FOR NOW...COVERAGE APPEARS ISOLD ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CHC FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH AS A WARM FRONT...AS THE BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN AT KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES. THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG IT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SOME STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND USHERING A LESS HUMID AIRMASS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH THE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE USED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CATSKILLS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO TO THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. TO THE NORTH AND WEST AMOUNTS DROP OFF FROM TO AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/TUESDAY. LOOKING AT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG)...THERE ARE HIGHER VALUES FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES FOR 3-HOUR GUIDANCE AND 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR 1-HOUR GUIDANCE. THE LOWEST FFG VALUES ARE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR 3-HOUR GUIDANCE AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR 1-HOUR GUIDANCE. WITH HIGH PWATS HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLY MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ISOLATED/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULE OUT IF STORMS TRAIN OVER AN AREA...HOWEVER THE THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO REFER TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THEIR INSIGHT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...PLACING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND USHERING IN A LESS HUMID DRIER AIRMASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .EQUIPMENT... KENX NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WILL BE UNAVAILABLE THROUGH EARLY AUGUST. A MAJOR HARDWARE FAILURE WITH THE RADAR HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED. FIXING THIS WILL REQUIRE HEAVY EQUIPMENT AND A TEAM OF EMPLOYEES FROM THE RADAR OPERATIONS CENTER. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY  FXUS61 KALY 230300 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG IT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND USHERING A LESS HUMID AIR MASS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1100 PM EDT...A FAIRLY STEADY RAIN WITH SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING OCCURRING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND SEVERAL FLS STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE AROUND THE CATSKILL AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES /FROM KOKX/ OF AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL STILL TO COME. WHILE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW MORE FLS TYPE STATEMENTS OR AN ISOLD FFW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS RAINFALL IS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WE NOW HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA WITH CHC THUNDER. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY DURING THE MORNING...PLACING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND USHERING IN A LESS HUMID DRIER AIRMASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH POPS DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UP TO HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND STORMS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER LESS HUMID AIRMASS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GENTLE SLOPES OF THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERNS IN THE LATEST 12Z MODELS WITH OUR REGION JUST UPSTREAM OF A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN INDICATES LARGE AREA OF SURFACE DIVERGENCE MAKING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS THUR-SAT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN EXTENDING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALTHOUGH TIMING AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY IN SYNC...SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE REGION. WITH A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE AXIS...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AS THIS FRONT PASSES. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS BY LATER THIS EVENING...AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW HEAVIER BURSTS AROUND...BUT TIMING/DURATION OF THIS IS STILL UNKNOWN. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR WITHIN THESE HEAVIER BUSTS...BUT WILL NOT ADDRESS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITH A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. FOR NOW...COVERAGE APPEARS ISOLD ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...CHC FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH AS A WARM FRONT...AS THE BEST FOCUS FOR RAIN SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN AT KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES. THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG IT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SOME STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND USHERING A LESS HUMID AIRMASS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH THE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE USED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CATSKILLS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO TO THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. TO THE NORTH AND WEST AMOUNTS DROP OFF FROM TO AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/TUESDAY. LOOKING AT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG)...THERE ARE HIGHER VALUES FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES FOR 3-HOUR GUIDANCE AND 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR 1-HOUR GUIDANCE. THE LOWEST FFG VALUES ARE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR 3-HOUR GUIDANCE AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR 1-HOUR GUIDANCE. WITH HIGH PWATS HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLY MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ISOLATED/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULE OUT IF STORMS TRAIN OVER AN AREA...HOWEVER THE THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO REFER TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THEIR INSIGHT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...PLACING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND USHERING IN A LESS HUMID DRIER AIRMASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .EQUIPMENT... KENX NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WILL BE UNAVAILABLE THROUGH EARLY AUGUST. A MAJOR HARDWARE FAILURE WITH THE RADAR HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED. FIXING THIS WILL REQUIRE HEAVY EQUIPMENT AND A TEAM OF EMPLOYEES FROM THE RADAR OPERATIONS CENTER. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY  FXUS61 KALY 160952 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 452 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY...AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 430 AM EST...THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST ENTERING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST. CLOUDS...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT A VEERING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND LOWERING INVERSION LEVEL IS ACTING TO LIMIT OVERALL CLOUD DEPTH AND SNOWBAND POTENTIAL WITH THIS BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHERE SOME DUSTINGS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E/S OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR ACCUMS OF A COATING...TO LOCALLY JUST UNDER AN INCH IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR COULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AND BERKSHIRES...ESP LATER THIS MORNING. SHALLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AND IN FACT...FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...SOME MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BEFORE TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME VALLEY AREAS MAY THEN HOLD STEADY...OR PERHAPS REBOUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SIMPLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. FOR MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS...ANTICIPATING TEMPS AROUND 12Z-13Z AND THEN FALLING...EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT REBOUND IN SOME VALLEY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 20S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...EXCEPT GENERALLY HOLDING BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THAT SOME WIND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THESE AREAS...SOME WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DIP BELOW -20 F...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND CHILL ADV FOR HAMILTON/NORTHERN HERKIMER CO UNTIL 10 PM EST MON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR BITTER COLD TEMPS EXISTS...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK...DECREASING WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME CLOUDS AND WIND MAY INITIALLY PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES...BEFORE CLEARING AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARD CALM BY LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO FALL EXTREMELY FAST...AND THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT ALL MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT...WITH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD SUBZERO READINGS FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MINS OF 0 TO 10 ABOVE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. SOME AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE -10 F RANGE OR LOWER...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SINCE WINDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD CALM...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK OUT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM FOR AREAS WITHIN...AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH PERHAPS A COATING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE MORNING...AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR OR OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND THEN TRACKS RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RATHER SMALL...BUT POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUE MORNING. A BURST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME FGEN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP...JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR AREAS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND TO THE N AND E BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND MID MORNING...AND SHOULD LAST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH QPF OF 0.1-0.2 ACROSS THE REGION...GREATEST ACROSS S/E AREAS FROM THE BERKSHIRE SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL OCCUR. FAIRLY HIGH SLR/S ARE EXPECTED GIVEN SUCH COLD MID LEVELS INITIALLY ACROSS THE REGION...AND CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECASTS ARE FOR WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH WPC. SINCE THE GROUND WILL BE SO COLD...SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE TO MOST ROAD SURFACES...MAKING FOR TOUGH TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AND MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS WE WITNESSED SATURDAY...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS ONLY HOLD BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ABOVE...AS SNOW FALLS THROUGH THE SHALLOW...COLD AND INITIALLY DRY AIR...ALLOWING FOR WET BULB COOLING TO OCCUR...SO ALTHOUGH WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS...MAY NOT HAVE UNDERCUT BY ENOUGH. TUE NT-WED NT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TUE NT/EARLY WED...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE WED INTO WED NT AS MID LEVELS WARM. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NW AREAS LATE WED NT. EXPECT COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND DAYTIME MAXES IN THE 20S TO SOME LOWER 30S WED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER A DRY THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. CONFLUENT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW MUCH WARM AIR SURGES NORTH INTO OUR REGION AND THE CHARACTER OF WHAT COULD BE A BROAD PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE. MULTIPLE UPPER IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION... WITH THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE SHIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH TO VARYING DEGREES ACROSS OUR REGION...POSSIBLE RESULTING IN AREAS OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN GUIDANCE IS QUITE EXTREME SO INSTEAD OF GETTING MORE SPECIFIC THAN WE HAVE THE ABILITY TO BE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...JUST GOING WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES UNTIL THE EVOLUTION IS CLEARER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WOULD BE ON FRIDAY... AND AFTER THAT...MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW MUCH COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE COLDER SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE CORRECT...THEN THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH EACH UPPER IMPULSE. IF THE WARMER SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE CORRECT...THEN MANY AREAS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BECOMING RAIN. SO...FOR NOW...GOING WITH A MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND HIGHS SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION EXITING KALB WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 06Z. SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT KPSF BETWEEN 07Z-08Z. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO OCCASIONALLY EXTENDING TOWARD KGFL WITH SOME FLURRIES...SO WILL JUST PUT VCSH THROUGH 10Z THERE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY FOR THE TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BROKEN AROUND 3500-4000 FT AGL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO RELATED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN THE SYSTEM THAT JUST IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THEREAFTER...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND ICE WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS AND PARTICULARLY LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MILDER TEMPS AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR SOMETIME FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032- 033. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...KL  FXUS61 KALY 161148 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 648 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY...AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 630 AM EST...THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST ENTERING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUDS...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT A VEERING NW LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND LOWERING INVERSION LEVEL IS ACTING TO LIMIT OVERALL CLOUD DEPTH AND SNOWBAND POTENTIAL WITH THIS BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE 1-2 HOURS...WHERE SOME DUSTINGS...TO LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS...ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...ALTHOUGH SOME FLURRIES COULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AND BERKSHIRES. SHALLOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AND IN FACT...FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...SOME MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BEFORE TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME VALLEY AREAS MAY THEN HOLD STEADY...OR PERHAPS REBOUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SIMPLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. FOR MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET MOS...ANTICIPATING TEMPS AROUND 12Z-13Z AND THEN FALLING...EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT REBOUND IN SOME VALLEY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 20S POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...EXCEPT GENERALLY HOLDING BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THAT SOME WIND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THESE AREAS...SOME WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DIP BELOW -20 F...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND CHILL ADV FOR HAMILTON/NORTHERN HERKIMER CO UNTIL 10 PM EST MON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR BITTER COLD TEMPS EXISTS...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FRESH...DEEP SNOWPACK...DECREASING WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME CLOUDS AND WIND MAY INITIALLY PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES...BEFORE CLEARING AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARD CALM BY LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO FALL EXTREMELY FAST...AND THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT ALL MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT...WITH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD SUBZERO READINGS FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MINS OF 0 TO 10 ABOVE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. SOME AREAS COULD DIP INTO THE -10 F RANGE OR LOWER...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SINCE WINDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD CALM...NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK OUT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM FOR AREAS WITHIN...AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH PERHAPS A COATING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE MORNING...AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR OR OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND THEN TRACKS RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RATHER SMALL...BUT POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUE MORNING. A BURST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME FGEN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP...JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR AREAS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND TO THE N AND E BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND MID MORNING...AND SHOULD LAST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH QPF OF 0.1-0.2 ACROSS THE REGION...GREATEST ACROSS S/E AREAS FROM THE BERKSHIRE SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT WILL OCCUR. FAIRLY HIGH SLR/S ARE EXPECTED GIVEN SUCH COLD MID LEVELS INITIALLY ACROSS THE REGION...AND CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECASTS ARE FOR WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH WPC. SINCE THE GROUND WILL BE SO COLD...SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE TO MOST ROAD SURFACES...MAKING FOR TOUGH TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AND MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS WE WITNESSED SATURDAY...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS ONLY HOLD BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ABOVE...AS SNOW FALLS THROUGH THE SHALLOW...COLD AND INITIALLY DRY AIR...ALLOWING FOR WET BULB COOLING TO OCCUR...SO ALTHOUGH WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS...MAY NOT HAVE UNDERCUT BY ENOUGH. TUE NT-WED NT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TUE NT/EARLY WED...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE WED INTO WED NT AS MID LEVELS WARM. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NW AREAS LATE WED NT. EXPECT COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND DAYTIME MAXES IN THE 20S TO SOME LOWER 30S WED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER A DRY THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. CONFLUENT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW MUCH WARM AIR SURGES NORTH INTO OUR REGION AND THE CHARACTER OF WHAT COULD BE A BROAD PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE. MULTIPLE UPPER IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION... WITH THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE SHIFTING NORTH AND SOUTH TO VARYING DEGREES ACROSS OUR REGION...POSSIBLE RESULTING IN AREAS OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN GUIDANCE IS QUITE EXTREME SO INSTEAD OF GETTING MORE SPECIFIC THAN WE HAVE THE ABILITY TO BE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...JUST GOING WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES UNTIL THE EVOLUTION IS CLEARER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WOULD BE ON FRIDAY... AND AFTER THAT...MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW MUCH COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE COLDER SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE CORRECT...THEN THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH EACH UPPER IMPULSE. IF THE WARMER SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE CORRECT...THEN MANY AREAS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION QUICKLY BECOMING RAIN. SO...FOR NOW...GOING WITH A MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND HIGHS SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY FOR THE TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN AROUND 3500-4000 FT AGL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO RELATED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN THE SYSTEM THAT JUST IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THEREAFTER...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND ICE WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS AND PARTICULARLY LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MILDER TEMPS AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR SOMETIME FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032- 033. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM/JPV NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...KL  FXUS61 KALY 010908 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 508 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF THIS STORM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING MORE COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 510 AM EDT...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. ALTHOUGH NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED SO FAR...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY DECREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT THERE REMAINS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PA...SO THE SHOWER THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THERE MAY THEN BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH AROUND NOONTIME OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM/S OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DEPENDING ON IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHOULD ANY OCCUR...SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN COOLING MID LEVELS. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS VERY TRICKY...GIVEN OUR EXPECTED COOL AND CLOUDY START. WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP A BIT LATER THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AROUND 5000 FT AGL...ANY MIXING WITH SUNSHINE COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SOAR QUICKLY. HAVE WENT A BIT ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS FOR FORECAST MAXES...WITH LOWER 70S IN VALLEY REGIONS...AND 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS MAY NOT BE REACHED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS JUST N AND W OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. SO...SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INITIALLY. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY. IN OTHER AREAS...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRIDAY...THE REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH THE PASSING COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD THEN DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE RATHER COLD AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GRAUPEL FALLING FROM ANY TALLER SHOWERS. HOWEVER...OVERALL CLOUD DEPTH LOOKS TO BE MORE SHALLOW THAN TODAY...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. IT MAY BECOME QUITE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY REGION...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A LULL IN ANY PRECIP...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SAT...ANOTHER RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HEATING. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE TIME FRAME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS OF A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. IF THE WAVE WHERE TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN ARRIVAL...WITH STRONG MAY SUNSHINE AND H500 TEMPS DROPPING TOWARD -30C...COULD SEE SOME OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE PLACED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WPC FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH. THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C BY SUNDAY AND ANY LINGERING MOISTURE COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...AFTER HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DIPPING DOWN WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE TERRAIN AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY STARTS MAY 5TH AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TEMPERATURES TRENDS. AT THIS TIME...SEEMS PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. A COOL AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ANY ACTIVITY UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS MAY CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AN OCCASIONAL DIP INTO IFR THRESHOLDS WHICH WILL HOLD WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN MVFR THRESHOLDS. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE CIGS TO FURTHER IMPROVE. HOWEVER...FRONT REMAINS UPSTREAM SO WE WILL HOLD ONTO A PROB30 FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL EITHER BE VARIABLE OR A TENDENCY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER SUNRISE...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES TO AROUND 10KTS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... COOL TEMPERATURES AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MORE COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...AND HAS BEEN DROPPED ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...EXCEPT 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT...WHERE EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED. GIVEN THAT LESS RAINFALL OCCURRED IN MOST AREAS THAN WAS EXPECTED...ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES OCCURRED ON MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL BRING SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TO PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH...WITH GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...KL/LFM HYDROLOGY...KL/LFM  FXUS61 KALY 012007 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 407 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT...RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SHALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AND SOME CI/CS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. THE CU SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE...MEANWHILE SOME OF THE CI/CS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RACE ACROSS CANADA BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AN JAMES/HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST...THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY FORWARD PROGRESS CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGHER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS UPSTREAM. AS THE THERMAL COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM...SO TOO WILL THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS AVERAGE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE H850 /+10C TO+13C/ WHICH WHEN AIR PARCELS ARE BROUGHT DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY SHOULD YIELD LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... OVERALL...THE THREAT IS DIMINISHING FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLOODING. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOTH ABOVE AND THE EXCELLENT AFD FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS IS DUE TO A FEW FACTORS. 1. MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER. 2. WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM IS NOW FORECAST TO RETROGRADE. 3. ROBUST UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND UPPER JET IMPULSE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...WE CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS WE WILL HOLD POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORIES. THIS TOO WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES SEEMS THE MEAN LAYER RH VALUES WILL BE RATHER HIGH WHICH WILL LIMIT INSOLATION TUESDAY TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE SURFACE PARCELS. HOWEVER...MUCAPES ARE STILL PROGGED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS. PWATS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND SLOWLY CLIMB INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...A RATHER HUMID/MUGGY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING ARE DUE TO RATHER LIGHT WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 20KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...MBE VECTORS LESS THAN 5KTS...PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMBING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CLIMBING PER BUFR PROFILES. SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING TOO MUCH. RELATIVELY HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ALONG WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BE GOOD LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH OUR HWO. MOS VALUES ARE RATHER CLOSE AS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...WE WILL SHADE CLOSER TO THE "COOLER" SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING WAVES MEANDERING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR REGION UNDER A GOOD MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AS WELL AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE LOWER 80S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS WILL FALL BACK TO HIGHS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD....BUT THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THIS FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CONSISTENT...WITH NIGHTLY READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN MOSTLY THE AROUND 50 DEGREES TO UPPER 50S RANGE. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY ARE IN THE MID 70S AND MID 50S...RESPECTIVELY. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MON. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z/MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE...THUS SOME RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KPSF AND KGFL AND HAVE VSBYS DOWN TO 4SM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. TUE-TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER INTO TOMORROW. A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION. EXPECT MINIMUM RH VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON OF 35 TO 50 PERCENT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS...BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR FLOODING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER FOR THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA INTO MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE VARIABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT TIME FRAME IS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL...LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND RAPID RIVER RISES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... THE MONTHLY CLIMATE REPORTS FOR MAY 2014 AND THE SEASONAL CLIMATE REPORTS FOR METEOROLOGICAL SPRING (MARCH-APRIL-MAY) WERE ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR ALBANY NY, GLENS FALLS NY, POUGHKEEPSIE NY, BENNINGTON VT AND PITTSFIELD MA. NOTE: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN ALBANY WORKED WITH THE NOAA NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER TO RECONSTRUCT/CORRECT THE BAD TEMPERATURE DATA FOR GLENS FALLS FROM A NEARBY STATION FOR THE PERIOD FROM APRIL 17TH THROUGH MAY 20TH DUE TO A PROBLEM WITH THE ASPIRATOR FAN WHICH RESULTED IN ABNORMALLY WARM AIR BEING DIRECTED OVER THE THERMOMETER. THE MONTHLY CLIMATE REPORT FOR APRIL 2014 FOR GLENS FALLS WAS REISSUED ON MAY 29TH. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS...PLEASE CALL RAYMOND OKEEFE...METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY AT 518 435 9566. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...11 FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA CLIMATE...IAA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY  FXUS61 KALY 281406 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1006 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY SKY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1000 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE STARTED OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT CLOUDS ARE ALREADY FILLING IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO MIX IN ACROSS MOST AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. OVERALL CLOUD DEPTH AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN RECENT DAYS...SO HAVE KEPT OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BE LOSING IT/S INFLUENCE ON THE REGION/S WEATHER...AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. STILL...OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS THAN RECENT DAYS AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF GOOD DAYTIME MIXING AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TODAY...ESP DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTN HOURS. N TO NW WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30-35 MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER THE CATSKILLS. SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR HOW WE ANTICIPATE THESE WINDS TO IMPACT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY FAR ENOUGH AWAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND MORE SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. A CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME....SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. IT APPEARS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD HAPPEN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR LATE THURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESP FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT AND RATHER SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF/GEFS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AS THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS PHASE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL KEEP PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING FRIDAY. AS THE COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES...SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STORM INCREASES WHICH WILL REDUCE SHOWER POTENTIAL AND LIKELY ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS WE LOOK INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY...ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE TERRAIN WHERE WE WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL SUBTLE HINTS FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO ASSIST WITH TOUCHING OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. YET THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SO WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. MONDAY...THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACH A COLD FRONT AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WITH A LARGE RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CONUS COASTLINE. PER WPC GUIDANCE...THE RIDGE MAY LINGER A BIT MORE SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A RATHER MILD DAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TOWARD +10C...LOTS OF 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAYBE A 80F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME FEW-SCT VFR STRATOCU CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...SO WILL THE INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS OF WHICH IT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR TERRITORY. TOWARD EVENING...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CU/SC OF WHICH IT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 7-12 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS BY MID MORNING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES. THOSE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WIND DIRECTION BACKS TOWARD A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WITH GOOD DAYTIME MIXING EXPECTED...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND FUEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS. RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT ON WED AFTN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTER...GENERALLY NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...ANY RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER MINOR. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB- SITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...KL/BGM FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS  FXUS61 KALY 032349 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 749 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Some additional rain showers are possible into tonight as an upper level low departs the region. Behind the departing storm system, skies will clear out with comfortable temperatures on Tuesday. High pressure will allow for dry weather through Friday, with temperatures moderating above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 730 PM EDT...H2O vapor loop reveals the upper low slowly track east-southeast across southern New England. A few showers remain but an overall diminishing trend is expected overnight with the loss of the daytime heating. Latest HRRR still suggests with a broad easterly flow around the periphery of the surface high across Maine that lingering showers/sprinkles may impact our western New England counties as we will retain the slight chance to chance PoPs across these areas. Otherwise, per the enhance IR Satellite imagery, several breaks in the overcast have been observed but expectations are for additional low clouds/stratus and patchy fog to evolve overnight. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s thanks to all the clouds around. Some upper 40s are possible across the high terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather is expected through the entire short term period. The upper level low that has been impacting the region will continue to move eastward out to sea. At the same time, strong ridging over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will translate eastward into the Northeast behind the departing upper level low. On Tuesday, surface high pressure will be situated over New England. This should allow clouds to break for some sun, although it may take until the afternoon hours for this to occur across the high terrain of western New England and the Taconics. With 850 hpa temps around 7-8 degrees C, high temps look to be in the 60s for much of the region. With mainly clear skies and light winds, temps should fall into the 40s for Tuesday night. Some fog/mist will likely occur in the typical areas, such as valleys and near bodies of water. With high pressure directly over the area and warming temps aloft, even warmer weather is expected for Wednesday into Thursday. There should be plenty of sunshine each day thanks to the strong subsidence in place. Max temps look to reach the upper 60s to near 70 on Wednesday for valley areas and into the low to mid 70s on Thursday. It will continue to be seasonably cool with the good radiational cooling for Wed night with lows in the 40s, but it should remain warm enough to prevent any frost in the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Considerable uncertainty remains in the forecast as we continue to watch the progress of 'Matthew'. Please refer to the latest outlooks and statements from the National Hurricane Center. Through the long term, general model consensus is to build the ridge along the mid-Atlantic and northeast corridors through the end of this week. Meanwhile, a digging and somewhat progressive trough moves through the Plains States, however, amplitude remains in question (the ECMWF is rather flat and progressive with the GFS/GGEM more amplified and a little slower). We will follow the blended consensus with a dry and unseasonable mild afternoon temperatures through at least Saturday morning with seasonable overnight low temperatures with good nocturnal cooling. We will increase clouds and PoPs later Saturday into Saturday night. Depending on the track of 'Matthew', a period of rain is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Conditions should improve through Sunday as the aforementioned trough upstream tracks through the region and what is left of 'Matthew' tracks off to our east or northeast. A shot of cold advection is expected through Sunday into Sunday night where some lake effect clouds/showers and maybe even some wet snow across the higher terrain as H850 temperatures drop toward or just below 0C. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... While winds will generally be 5 knots or less from the northeast or east direction, the main challenge tonight will be VIS and CIGS. While conditions early this evening should remain VFR, there is a wide range of CIGS from SKC into the mid-Hudson Valley to BKN-OVC elsewhere. Trends are for more clouds to evolve as well as low stratus/br/fg where more breaks occur. This will be reflected in the TAFs with IFR probabilities increasing toward midnight. VIS and CIG should improve within a couple of hours of sunrise Tuesday for VFR conditions to prevail under a SCT-BKN clouds. Outlook... Tuesday Night-Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Some rain showers are possible this evening into tonight as an upper level low departs the region. RH values will be near 100 percent tonight with dew formation and some fog in spots as well. Winds will be very light and variable. Some breaks of sun are expected on Tuesday, but RH values will generally remain above 60 percent through the day. East to southeast winds will be around 5-10 mph. Dry weather is expected for Tuesday through Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... The latest US Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions across much of the region. Precipitation departures this calendar year have been 3 to 12 inches below normal, with the greatest departures across southeastern parts of the HSA. As a result, streamflow and ground water levels have been running below normal. As an upper level low departs the region, some additional rain showers are possible this evening into tonight. While many locations will stay dry, areas that see rainfall are only expected to pick up to an additional quarter of an inch. This rainfall will have little to no impact on area rivers and streams. With high pressure returning to the region, dry weather is expected tomorrow through Friday. This will allow rivers and streams to hold steady through much of the week. The next system to watch will be Hurricane Matthew, which is currently in the Caribbean Sea. It is still too early to say if this storm will have any impact on the HSA. If there was to be any impact, it would be over the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/BGM SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...IAA/BGM FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis www.weather.gov/albany