FXAK67 PAJK 301332 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 532 AM AKDT SUN MAR 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, IT WILL PULL WHAT IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUSLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII SOUTHWARD. IT WILL ALSO DRAW IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN YUKON SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE PANHANDLE WHICH SHOULD BEGIN ERODING THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINNING THIS MORNING FOR A LITTLE MORE SUN IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THERE SHOULD BE NO CHANGE...BRILLIANT SUNSHINE. WITH LESS AND LESS SUPPORT, THE POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TODAY...BUT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL KEEP GRADIENTS NORTHERLY OVER THE PANHANDLE EVEN AS IT IS CENTERED FARTHER AWAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL QUIETLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND CONTINUE TO FLATTEN CROSS-BARRIER GRADIENTS OVER SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE IN LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE INSIDE CHANNELS WITH THE LAST OF THE SMALL CRAFT OVER LYNN CANAL BEING LIFTED THIS MORNING. IN FACT, GREATER DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SO LARGELY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WE SHOULD APPROACH 50 DEGREES TODAY IN MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY SPOTS INLAND, AND FROM SITKA SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WILL AGAIN BE PROBABLE TODAY. LOWS SIMILARLY COOL AS WELL...MIDDLE 30S FROM SITKA-WRANGELL SOUTH. 20S FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...WITH TEENS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF. NAM USED FOR TWEAKS...BUT LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. CONFIDENCE GOOD. .LONG TERM...SHARPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF MON THEN DRIFT EWD INTO SE AK LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THE TROF MOVES EWD AND WHETHER MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THERE REMAINS LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SRN STREAM TROF MOVING EWD S OF THE AKPEN...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY STALLING IT THEN DRIFTING IT WWD WHILE SOME OTHERS TAKE AT LEAST SOME OF THE TROF INTO THE GULF. THIS AFFECTS HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL BAND MOVES INTO THE GULF AND WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF IT BY TIME IT REACHES THIS AREA. AFTER COORD WITH WFO PAFC...DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEM AND NAM FOR MON-TUE. STAYED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY WPC BASED. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR LATER MON MIGHT AND TUE. GIVEN THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF OFFSHORE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROF. MODELS SUGGEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE AS WELL...WHICH COULD DEVELOP LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TUE AS CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES. FOR TUE NIGHT ONWARD...WITH INCREASING MODEL SPREAD HANDLING BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM SYSTEMS...FELT LEAVING THINGS AS IS WAS BEST MOVE RIGHT NOW. IF ANYTHING...THE 06Z MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT HOLDING MORE SRN STREAM ENERGY BACK TO THE W LIKE THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WOULD MEAN A WEAKER FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...HOLDING BACK MORE SRN STREAM ENERGY MIGHT ALLOW MORE NRN STREAM ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE GULF...AND THIS COULD ENERGIZE THE FRONT AS IT MOVES FURTHER E ACROSS THE GULF. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013. && $$ JWA/RWT  FXAK67 PAJK 281354 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 554 AM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...OCCLUDED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 53N/153W AT 09Z SAT. UPPER VORT LOBE EXTENDING SE FROM THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NE DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE COAST OF THE SRN PANHANDLE BY 00Z SUN. A SECOND VORT LOBE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...MOVING NE OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE TOWARD 06-12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...50 KT PRE-FRONTAL SSELY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE INSIDE WATERS FROM CLARENCE STRAIT TO STEPHENS PASSAGE. THIS WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT...AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE REMAINING INSIDE CHANNELS. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER AKZ027 /HYDABURG/...WHILE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR SITKA AND KETCHIKAN. KETCHIKAN/AKZ028 MAY ULTIMATELY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL...THUS DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. PW VALUES FROM 0.4-0.7 INCH ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WHERE MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE STRONGEST. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -30C AT 500 MB/ ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS REINVIGORATED WITH THE SECOND VORT LOBE ENTERING THE REGION. IN ADDITION...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 100-400 J/KG OVER THE ADJACENT OUTSIDE WATERS TONIGHT. WARMEST SST VALUES /AROUND 8C/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /LCL TEMPERATURE NEAR 5C...WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 800 METERS/ WILL BE LOCATED OVER MARINE ZONES 41 AND 42...WHICH WILL FAVOR MARGINALLY ADEQUATE LIQUID WATER CONTENT IN THE CHARGE REVERSAL ZONE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SECOND VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS. POP AND QPF WERE COMPOSED USING AN ENSEMBLE BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND ARW WITH INHERITED GRIDS. .LONG TERM...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE FORECAST REGARDING SYSTEM EVOLUTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. DECIDED TO NUDGE TOWARD THE STRONGER OF THE TWO TO START PRESENTING A TASTE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITHIN POST- FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WHERE AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS, LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAIN. SHOWER INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO RIVAL CAMPS: THE GFS/NAM AND THE ECMWF/GEM. BOTH CAMPS SUPPORT A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE COLDER AIR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SERVE AS THE AMUSE-BOUCHE--IF YOU WILL, OF THE SECOND FEATURE, OR THE MAIN COURSE, DUE TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THE GFS AND NAM PRESENT A STRONGER FIRST SYSTEM WHICH EFFECTIVELY ROBS THE STRENGTH OF THE SECOND SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GEM DIFFERS WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE AS PRE-CURSOR TO A MORE SOLID GALE FORCE LOW TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE IMPACTFUL SOLUTION TO HEDGE OUR BETS WITHOUT COMPLETELY IGNORING THE AMERICAN CONTINGENT. THUS, WINDS WERE BOTH INCREASED AND PUSHED FORWARD IN TIME, AS THE LOW MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. CLARENCE WAS AUGMENTED TO GALE. LOOK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES FOR ZONES 41 AND 42 WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THESE WAVES STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EXTENDING INTO MONDAY. WHILE TO THE SOUTH, RAIN WILL RE-ENTER THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING WITH BANDS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS BROAD-BRUSHED...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY. BUT AS MODELS INDICATE A MORE ORGANIZED ALEUTIAN SYSTEM BARRELING INTO THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF RIDGING AND THUS DRYING AHEAD TO OFFSET MORE ORGANIZED FRONTS AND LOWS BRINGING SURER BETS OF RAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW EARLY IN THE WEEK, RISING INTO TUESDAY, THEN FALLING LATER. NUDGED TO ECMWF/GEM/GFS FOR MID-RANGE TO HEDGE ON DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE STRONGER SYSTEM. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>035. && $$ GARNER/ADKINS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  FXAK67 PAJK 311353 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 553 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...AT 09Z TUE MORNING...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SCNTRL GULF. UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVER NWRN CANADA...WHILE A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING N OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE E TOWARD THE COAST OF SERN AK BY 12Z WED...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION NOTED AMONGST SUITE OF SOLUTIONS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN HOW THE LOW PHASES WITH A VORTICITY STREAMER APPROACHING IT FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE ERN GULF BY AFTERNOON...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNW OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LYNN CANAL AND CAUSE SLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS...AND WSWLY WINDS TO 30 KT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER MARINE ZONE 41 ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF LOW. OTHERWISE...STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WHILE BANDS OF SHOWERS SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN OUTSIDE WATERS INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CONFIRMED BY AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE LOCATED NEAR ANNETTE AT 1230Z. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE PROFILES /LCL TEMPERATURE AOB 3C...WARM CLOUD DEPTH LESS THAN 500 METERS/. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IF CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL OCCURRENCE INCREASES. NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO PRESSURE GRIDS. POP AND QPF WERE UPDATED USING A COMBINATION OF GFS/ECMWF/ARW/NMM. .LONG TERM...THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE VORTICITY STREAMER DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE COMPLETE WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON, IN PART, DUE TO MORE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE BUILDING WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. POPS WILL BE HIGHER INLAND AS THE INSTABILITY IS ACCENTUATED BY THE ACCENT OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS. ALL EYES WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE STORM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING. THIS STORM SWINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS AND STEADY RAINS MOVING NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY INTO THE PANHANDLE. NEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF LEFT THE PACK OF MODELS BY ADVANCING IT FASTER. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON SPEED, KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS, BUT WE MUST COMMUNICATE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE. THE INHERITED PRECIPITATION FIELD WAS BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF TO ADVANCE IT FARTHER EAST A LITTLE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER EVEN THE THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON THIS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE ADVANCING FRONT, AND TRIED TO COUNTER THIS INCORPORATING A LITTLE OF THE NAM. HOWEVER, THE 700 MB FLOW STILL CARRYING MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT, AND THUS WITH GRADUAL UPGLIDE, FELT WE HAD TO LEAVE IT IN. THE GFS SUGGESTING RAIN BANDS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON BARANOF ISLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN TURN TO SMALL CRAFT FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT PARALLEL GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP THE FAR NORTHERN PASSAGES RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY, THUS DRYING OUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH ENOUGH TO EXTEND SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SOME COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO REINTRODUCE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE DISSIPATING SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A HEALTHY SHORT- WAVE RIDING EASTWARD FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT AS KEEN. THUS WAS CAREFUL TO BOTH RAISE POPS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD. STILL LEFT THE CHANCE OF SNOW WITH RAIN FOR JUNEAU AND POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF USED TO UPDATE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR PERIOD. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-043-052. && $$ GARNER/ADKINS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  FXAK67 PAJK 211349 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 549 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...ANOTHER RATHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND YESTERDAY MORNING IS THERE IS MORE HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND WITH MORE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING DUE TO THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUDS IN THAT REGION. MEANWHILE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD THICKNESS OVER THAT AREA. THE TODAY INTO TONIGHT PERIOD WILL MAINLY FEATURE TWO THINGS, INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN. THIS IS COURTESY OF A WEAK TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND, THAT WILL BE MOVING NW OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON (THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING). THE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AS THE FARTHER WEST YOU GET THE MORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL DRY THINGS OUT AND THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FARTHER INLAND. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE SPREAD OVER HYDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO JUNEAU, AND GUSTAVUS BY LATE TONIGHT. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS APPEAR ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THEN A QUARTER INCH AS THE SYSTEM IS WEAK WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AS FOR WINDS, THE HIGHEST IS IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CREATING SOME BREEZY WINDS. A NORTHERLY OF 20 KT HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND AN EASTERLY OF 25 KT IS BLOWING IN CROSS SOUND RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT EVEN WITH THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WAS SOME VARIATION ON WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN WOULD START UP. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NAM AND SOME GFS FOR UPDATES. MOST CHANGES WERE LOCAL EFFECT FROM SEA BREEZES. THOUGH I DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO HOLD TOGETHER RATHER WELL AS IT GET INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. .LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD ON LOW TRACK BUT LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HRS AGO. BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND CANADIAN...WAS USING MAINLY 00Z GFS TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR FRI THROUGH SAT...WILL HAVE A WEAK TROF MOVE N ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING IN FOR SAT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE PRECIP THREAT OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF AND SECOND WRAP OF FRONT MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW. HAVE RAISED WINDS UP TO 30 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RAISE THEM FURTHER TO GALES IF THE GFS STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CORRECT. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AFTER SUN...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST IT MOVES IN AND WHETHER IT MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE INNER CHANNELS. BASICALLY KEPT THE LATE SUN NIGHT ONWARD FORECAST AS IS...WITH LOWEST POPS OVER THE MORE ERN AREAS. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ EAL/RWT VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU